Hmmmm, the picture is becoming a bit clearer now. Today, the Phillies announced that they were sending Fabio Castro, Eude Brito and Joe Bisenius to minor league camp, along with non-roster invitees Brennan King, Dusty Wathan, Rob Calloway, and Brett Abernathy. This is surprising, for a few reasons. First off, Bisenius has some of the best numbers of any pitcher in camp this spring, I can understand him not breaking camp with the team, but have they already decided who is staying and who isn’t? If this move is based on merit, it’s tough to understand, but if it’s based on managing the 40 man roster, then it makes more sense. However, as I mentioned in the Bisenius piece a few days ago, the Phillies have plenty of room on the 40 man roster at present. It’s also kind of surprising that both Brito and Castro were sent down. Castro has struggled mightily this spring, but the reality is that he was probably going to spend the majority of the season in Ottawa anyway, most likely as a starter. Brito is a bit surprising though. After showing up late to camp because of an injury, he’s pitched decent enough, and he’s one of the only viable lefthanded pitchers the Phillies had for the bullpen. Matt Smith has been, well, not so good, and he’s our only LHP at the moment in the pen. Brito has little value as a major league starter, but I think some value as a reliever…..apparently not though.

So, let’s take a look at how this latest purge affects the bullpen. If we do a tally, we have 8 starting position players, 5 starting pitchers, that’s 13 spots. The norm is a 5 man bench, so we’re up to 18 spots, which means a 7 man bullpen. Here are the “locks”

CL – Gordon (RH)
RP – Madson (RH)
RP – Geary (RH)
RP – Smith (LH)
RP – [Lieber] (RH)
RP –
RP –

So, theoretically, there are 3 open spots. However, you have to assume, barring a trade, that Lieber will occupy one of those spots, unless Garcia’s injury is more serious that believed to be at this point. So, for now if we assume Lieber will open in the bullpen (or traded for a reliever), we have two openings. Here are the potential fillers in those spots

Segovia: 10 IP, 2.70 ERA
Condrey: 10.2 IP, 4.22 ERA
Warden: 6.1 IP, 5.69 ERA
Alfonseca: 6.1 IP, 5.69 ERA
Happ: 16.1 IP, 6.06 ERA

You almost have to assume that Alfonseca is going to get a spot, simply because he’s dripping with veteranacity, even though he isn’t a very good pitcher. On merit, Segovia probably deserves the last spot, but with Warden being a Rule 5 guy, he’s probably going to end up sticking unless he implodes in the final week and Segovia dazzles. Keep an eye on today’s game, as Segovia is starting against the Yankees.

I’ve commented on Joe at length in the past, and as spring training has progressed, the buzz surrounding him has started to grow. The question everyone is asking is, will he make the team out of spring training? I wanted to look at the three determining factors, in my mind, which will ultimately lead to that decision.

His spring performance.  9 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 6 BB, 6 K. As I mentioned whenever talking about Bisenius, his control is the last missing piece, and it doesn’t appear to be there just yet. 6 walks in 9 innings is WAY too many, especially considering it is spring training, and he’s not always facing quality major league hitters. No one really questions his stuff, the mid 90’s heat is there, the hard slider is there, but unless he can command it, he’s going to frustrate his manager, his teammates, and all of us. Pitching to contact isn’t what you want out of your high leverage relievers, but you also don’t want a guy walking 2 in every appearance. If will be interesting to see how his numbers look at this time next week, and ultimately, that will probably go a long way in determining his immediate status.

The performance of everyone else. The Phillies bullpen was obviously wide open this spring, but few have really taken advantage.  Of the non-certainties, only Zach Segovia has pitched well (2.70 ERA in 10 IP), while the next best performance is Clay Condrey’s 4.82 ERA in 9.1 IP. Hopefuls Jim Ed Warden (5.69 ERA), Brian Sanches (6.75 ERA), Alfredo Simon (12.47 ERA, already offered back to Texas), and Anderson Garcia (9.00 ERA) have disappointed. Couple that with Alfonseca’s disappointing spring (7.20 ERA), and Bisenius looks like he HAS to be included. The Phillies surefire guys have to be Gordon, Smith, Geary, and Madson. That’s 4 slots, and there will be at least 2, probably 3 more spots to fill. Alfonseca is probably going to get a spot on the team until Gillick is forced to release him due to suckitude of the highest order. That means 1, maybe 2 spots to fill. Bisenius and Segovia seem like slam dunks, barring any kind of trade.

The 40 man roster.  At present, the Phillies have 4 spots open on the 40 man, so this doesn’t seem like a factor. Also included in that number are Warden, who may be removed and sent back to Cleveland. Segovia is already on the 40 man roster, so he has one less obstacle to overcome, but there is plenty of room there, so it shouldn’t be a means to keep Bisenius in the minors.

So, I suppose it all comes down to the last week of spring training. If I had to handicap it right now, I’d say there’s a 60% chance of him breaking camp with the team. The other 40% involves them keeping Warden, at least for now, Castro making the bullpen despite his poor spring, or a trade bringing in a reliever from another organization. However, with Alfonseca’s performance so far, I doubt it’s very long before Bisenius makes his way to Philly.

Also, is it just me, or does he look like Jeremy Bonderman’s twin brother?

The latest hot topic appears to be Zach Segovia moving into a position to make the bullpen out of spring training. The Inquirer makes a brief mention here, citing his most recent impressive outing against the Yankees, and the Daily News talking about his control and composure. This idea seems to really be picking up steam recently, and maybe more because of everyone else’s general state of suckitude rather than Segovia’s complete dominance. As I highlighted in my profile of Zach, pitching out of the pen, at least for now, might be his area of greatest value to the big league club. The overpowering velocity isn’t there, the strikeout numbers aren’t there, but he doesn’t walk a lot of guys, and that’s an important component for any quality reliever.

Quick update on our top Draft and Follow prospect, Rashad Taylor. Through 71 AB, his batting line:

.423/.535/.809,  25R, 4 2B, 4 3B, 5 HR, 21 RBI, 19 BB, 12 K

Hey Pat, please make this guy a quality offer.

Also, a plea to my fellow Phillies fans….don’t panic about Cole Hamels and his spring struggles, he’s going to be fine.

In Baseball America’s latest prospect blog entries, some updates on Phillies prospects are given. First, Scott Mathieson has begun long tossing from 150 feet and appears to be right on schedule. He should be back to pitching from a mound sometime in July, and might make a cameo in September. However, it’s highly unlikely he’ll be effective right away, as pitchers coming back from TJ almost always go through control/command troubles while regaining arm strength. The realist says that sometime mid 2008 he should be fully ready to contribute at the big league level, the question remains in what role he’ll play. Some argue he should get a shot to be the next closer, others argue his highest value is still in the rotation. Until we know what his arm/stuff is going to look like post surgery, that type of speculation really is just that, speculation.

Mentioned in the same article, Scott Mitchinson is also recovering from shoulder surgery (which I apparently missed) and should also be back and throwing in July. Also, there was a blurb on Drabek and his most recent outing in a Low A spring training game. Apparently the Phillies tried to alter Drabek’s delivery, and because of it, he suffered with a bit of velocity drop and wasn’t sharp. He revised his mechanics, somewhere between what he originally was using and what the Phillies suggested, and his fastball velocity shot back up into the 94 range with improved control, his curve was great, and his changeup was better than it was last season in his brief debut. Drabek was also praised for his attitude and ability to work with his coaches, which has to be seen as a great sign. It looks like he’s a lock to start the year at Lakewood, barring a late injury here.

If you’re a subscriber at Baseball Prospectus, you know all about similarity index and comparable players. If you don’t know, here is a real brief summary. Basically, the backbone of this is the PECOTA system, and is broken down into four main attributes; on field production, shear amount of numbers, physical traits like handedness, and then finally defensive position. The database contains over 20,000 seasons from major leaguers since World War II, as well as 10 years worth of minor league seasons from 1997-2006. Similarity index is basically a snapshot of all of the player’s comparable, with an index of 50 being a very common player, historically speaking, and a rating lower than 20 meaning the player is very unusual in a historical context.

Just for fun, on this miserable looking Friday, I looked at the comparable lists for the Phillies 10 best prospects, according to my prospect grades I did a little while back. Here are just a few brief thoughts on each guy.

1. Carlos Carrasco: SI = 57. At this point, his ten most comparable pitchers isn’t a pretty sight, but near the bottom of the top 10, then the 11-15 range, you see names like Jeremy Bonderman of 2003 (#7) and Yovani Gallardo of 2006 (#12). Because he had such a night and day change from 2005 to 2006, it’s tough to project him. The upside is definitely there.

2. Adrian Cardenas: SI = 24. Lots of interesting guys in his Top 20, including David Wright (#3), Ian Stewart (#13) and Milton Bradley (#14). Again, we’re dealing with a small sample size, hence his low Similarity Index.

3. D’Arby Myers: SI = 7. Clearly, because he was only 17 in the GCL, he’s a somewhat unique case. However, numbers 8-10 on his list include Carl Crawford, Jose Reyes and Carlos Gonzalez, one of the best prospects in baseball.

4. Scott Mathieson: SI = 66. Mathieson’s top 20 is all over the map, but does include a few really good signs, including Jake Peavy circa 2004 (#3) and Catfish Hunter circa 1969 (#7). However, it also includes guys like Victor Santos and Seth Etherton. We won’t really know anything about his future until sometime in 2008.

5. Josh Outman: SI = 59. Outman’s top 20 is absolutely ugly in every way. He really turned things up in 2006, and he was outstanding over the last 6 weeks of the season, but he still has control issues. We can only hope his list looks better at this time next year.

6. Edgar Garcia. No comparables in the PECOTA system yet.

7. James Happ: SI = 62. Happ’s top 20 is ugly as well, but interestingly, Doug Davis circa 2000 is his #3 comparable. Prior to Happ adding velocity on his fastball, he shared a lot of similarities to Davis. You could do worse than Doug Davis, who is a capable innings eater, but with a strong 2007, I’d imagine Happ’s comparable pitchers list will change a bit.

8. Joe Bisenius. No comparables in the PECOTA system yet.

9. Dan Brauer. No comparables in the PECOTA system yet.

10. Ben Pfinsgraff. No comparables in the PECOTA system yet.

Since a few guys aren’t in the system yet, I figured I’d look at a few lower ranked prospects and see how they stacked up.

Matt Maloney: SI = 60. Doug Davis circa 1999 comes in as his #2 comparable, and Brian Fuentes circa 1999 his #7 comparable.

Michael Bourn: SI = 49. The 2004 version of Tim Raines is his #4 comparable, and the only guy that looks anywhere near decent is Randy Winn circa 1998, who is his #15 comparable. Maybe this helps affirm my worries about him being a regular player in the big leagues.