Just a real quick preview of tonight’s action. Also, I’ve made a few more adjustments on the team rosters.
Lakewood v Greensboro, 6:35 PM
Carlos Monasterios v TBA
Game Preview
Clearwater v Dunedin, 7:05 PM
Freddy Garcia (Rehab Start) v TBA (Possibly Brandon Magee)
Reading v Harrisburg, 7:05 PM
Landon Jacobsen v TJ Nall
Season Preview
I mentioned Rashad Taylor a few days ago, but I wanted to give an update on all of our DFE’s at this point. So here we go.
Rashad Taylor (as of 3/30): .444/.543/.808 in 99 AB, 5 2B, 5 3B, 7 HR, 32 RBI
Shawn Epps (as of 4/4): 30 IP, 2.70 ERA, 24 H, 9 BB, 29 K
Bobby Haney (as of 4/4): 74 AB, .297 BA, 5 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 21 RBI, 2/3 SB,
Gerard Mohrmann (as of 4/4): 14 IP, 9.64 ERA, 13 H, 10 BB, 16 K
Daniel Faulkner (as of 4/4): 26.2 IP, 1.69 ERA, 16 H, 14 BB, 23 K
Yazy Arbelo (as of 4/4): 60 AB, .338 BA, 2 2B, 6 HR, 24 RBI
Patrick Murray (as of 4/4): .410/.453/.484, 7 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 22 RBI
Ty Manumaleuna (as of 4/4): 97 AB, .247 BA, 8 2B, 1 HR, 19 RBI
Nick Morreale See Below
Note 1: Yazy Arbelo is still being listed on the Seminole website with the team roster, but he is no longer listed on the stats page, and his stats from the NCAA JuCo site don’t appear updated, as most of his teammates have close to 100 AB. I’ve put a note in to a few people, no one has any idea or they haven’t gotten back to me.
Note 2: Nick Morreale’s school hasn’t sent stats to the JuCo website that lists all statistics for all D1-D3 schools. Nick’s father, who has left a few comments with us this spring, had this to say
I just came back from a week in Arizona watching my son, Nick Morreale and his teammates play some ball. Nick was 8-10 and 3 walks with a 4 RBI’s in the games I was able to see. He is splitting the catching duties with another young man who was also drafted in the 2006 Draft by the Mariners. In talking to Coach Cirelli, he plans on using Nick at Third base when not catching to get his bat in the lineup. The baseball is very competitive down there with most teams in the league having 3-5 draft picks each. The pitching is always 88-90+.
I appreciate the update on Nick.
Note 3: Shawn Epps was out of action for a while with a tweaked lower back, per this article, but appears to be back and healthy. Tip o’ the cap to JE for the link.
That’s all the info I have at this point. I don’t have a subscription to PG Crosschecker, which does a ranking of all the draft and follow players in the spring, maybe when that is posted, someone can drop us a line and let us know where Rashad Taylor and Daniel Faulkner rank, as they look like our two best bets. If anyone has any other info, articles, or anything else on our guys, please pass it along to me, either in the comments section or via e-mail. Thanks.
UPDATE 1 —> Thanks to JE again for the Patrick Murray link, for some reason, the link I had saved wasn’t working.
On the eve of the minor league season opener, I felt a little preview was in order. Check back tomorrow for a full update on our 2006 Draft and Follows, but for now, let’s take a look at the upcoming season for each of the Phillies full season affiliates.
Lakewood, South Atlantic League: Lakewood, the defending SAL champions, open their season tomorrow night with a 3 game series at home against Greensboro. The 2006 team was built on pitching, and the 2007 team figures to be much of the same, with a rotation featuring first round pick Kyle Drabek, Edgar Garcia, and a bunch of live arms in Carlos Monasterios, Darren Byrd, Jarrod Freeman, Michael Dubee, Andrew Cruse, and Alex Concepcion. Up the middle, the Phillies feature Adrian Cardenas at 2B and Jason Donald at SS, a tandem which is likely to climb the organizational ladder together. The outfield will most likely be a four man rotation, with Quintin Berry and Gus Milner being to the two prospects to keep your eye on. CJ Henry, acquired in the Bobby Abreu trade, will shift from SS to 3B this season, and though he has been disappointing, he’s still young, and could still turn into a decent prospect.
Clearwater, Florida State League: The Threshers are coming off a somewhat disappointing season, having gone 67-72 in 2006 and finishing 5th in the FSL West division. This season, however, they figure to be a bit better, and will be backed by arguably the strongest pitching rotation in the minors. The starting rotation will feature Carlos Carrasco, Josh Outman, Drew Carpenter, Dan Brauer, and Pat Overholt, meaning you will see a legitimate prospect pitching every evening for Clearwater. In the bullpen, Brett Harker is the logical choice to close out games, and he’ll be supported by Will Savage and Mike Zagurski in the late innings. On the offensive side, the team could again struggle to score runs, with Brad Harman and Jeremy Slayden the only real offensive forces, unless Welinson Baez finally steps forward and displays the tools he shows in practice. Lou Marson figures to be the every day catcher, and is responsible for handling a very talented pitching staff.
Reading, Eastern League: The Reading Phillies finished 71-69, good for 3rd place in the Southern division of the Eastern League. The 2007 team is going to lack in position player prospects, as really only Mike Costanzo and Javon Moran can still be considered legitimate prospects. There are plenty of minor league veterans, guys like Juan Tejeda and Joe Thurston, so they could still score some runs, but not a whole lot to get excited about, prospects wise. On the pitching side, things are a bit brighter, as the rotation should be fronted by Matt Maloney, Kyle Kendrick and Julio De La Cruz, being rounded out by Tim McClaskey and free agent pickup Landon Jacobsen. The bullpen will likely be led by minor league veteran Chris Key, who saved 20 games for Reading last season. He’ll be joined by Nick Evangelista, Nate Johnson and new acquisitions Heath Totten and Anderson Garcia. Of the bunch, Garcia and Evangelista are worth watching, but both will need to really show a solid performance to still be on the prospect radar at this time next year.
Ottawa, International League: The Phillies first and last season in Ottawa begins Friday night against Rochester. The Ottawa roster figures to be in a state of flux for much of the season, as guys like Joe Bisenius, Zach Segovia, James Happ, Eude Brito and Fabio Castro move between Ottawa and Philadelphia on a need or merit basis. The rotation figures to be Brian Mazone, Happ, Segovia, Brito and Castro, but Segovia’s first start of the season is likely to come in Philadelphia, and he’ll most likely head to Ottawa once Freddy Garcia comes off the disabled list. Joe Bisenius could join him when Jon Lieber returns, unless another move is made. Happ will likely make his major league debut this season, and Brito might see a spot start here or there, or could eventually be used in the bullpen, depending how things shake out. On the offensive side, the only real prospect is Jason Jaramillo, who might make his big league debut in September, or possibly sooner depending on the health of Barajas and Ruiz. The rest of the lineup is filled with minor league veterans like Brennan King, Ron Calloway, Carlos Leon and Gary Burnham. Yoel Hernandez will likely close out games while Bisenius is in Philadelphia, and if he’s to regain prospect status, he needs to do it quickly. Brian Sanches is another possibility to close games, and he’ll be joined in the pen by minor league vets in Kane Davis, Jim Crowell and John Ennis.
It should be a fun season, make sure to check back daily for game recaps, prospect analysis and other features as the season unfolds.
If you check the roster links to the left, you’ll see that I’ve updated Lakewood through Ottawa, based on the info given on the official websites of the affiliates. Some surprises;
CJ Henry starting at 3B in Lakewood. I knew he was being moved to third, but I thought he’d start at Clearwater. Welinson Baez was bumped to Clearwater, a move that doesn’t appear to be based on merit. Pat Overholt has been moved back into the starting rotation, and will begin in Clearwater. I knew the Phillies had given thought to this, and felt he had the stuff to start, but I thought they’d still fast track him in a bullpen role. The Clearwater rotation has the potential to be one of the best in the minors, with Brauer, Carpenter, Carrasco, Overholt and Outman you’re five starters. I’m also surprised to see Slayden starting in Clearwater, he seemed like an obvious double jump candidate based on his age.
Sam Walls is also missing from all of the minor league rosters, which leads me to believe he’ll stay in extended spring training and might join a full season team when he’s ready. D’Arby Myers is also absent from the Lakewood roster, which is a huge disappointment to me. From glancing at the minor league ST games, it looked like he was doing well enough to warrant the jump. Now it looks like he’ll remain in extended ST and then either join Williamsport or join Lakewood later in the season. This will definitely diminish his prospect status though. And finally, no sign of 2006 draft picks Jacob Dempsey and Charlie Yarbrough at Lakewood, no idea what their situation is.
Once the season starts, we’ll have a better idea of where the outfielders will line up and what role the relievers will play, and the roster pages will be further updated.
UPDATE —> Tim Moss has been released. Moss has to go down as one of the bigger busts of the last 5 years, just plain awful. Also, congrats to Joe Bisenius for making the 25 man roster.
UPDATE 2 –> Dempsey was in fact axed, along with Zac Cline, Matt Olson, and Max De La Cruz
Rashad Taylor, our top draft and follow for this season, has really put up some solid numbers thus far this season, and people are noticing. This article, from the San Francisco Examiner, talks about Taylor in depth and his season. The last line of the article is the most telling
Ultimately, Taylor’s goal — maybe sooner than later — is to go pro.
“That’s what I want to do,” Taylor said. “If a good four-year school comes along then I’ll take that into consideration, but that’s what I want to do. I want to play pro ball.”
Because Taylor wasn’t a huge prospect in June, the Phillies might be able to sign him on the cheap, especially with his desire to play pro ball. The Palo Alto Daily News also has a small blurb on Taylor, just scroll down half way. Taylor has refined his swing and added lots of torque and power. The blurb mentions a batting practice ball he hit somewhere in the neighborhood of 480 feet….not bad. The good news is, his power has translated onto the field, with a .700+ slugging %. The previous article mentioned he tweaked his back a few weeks ago, which is limiting his power, but his overall approach is still outstanding.
I’ll do a further update on the rest of our DFE’s some time this week. Thanks to e-mailer Christopher for the two articles above.
Not that this is a surprise, but this is a blog, I try to keep up with current events, and this morning The Inquirer ran an article saying Bourn has basically made the squad, and could actually see some spot starts at times, as opposed to just a late inning replacement. While I would not want him taking AB’s away from Burrell in the first 8 innings of a game, having him start a game or two a week in center instead of Rowand might not be a bad idea, and Rowand at least gives you some pop off the bench as a pinch hitter. Both Jon Lieber and Freddy Garcia will start the season on the DL, which means Zach Segovia will remain with the team. Should Garcia need to miss his first start on either April 7th or 8th, then Segovia will probably be the guy. Once Garcia returns, Zach might shift to the pen until Jon Lieber returns.
All in all, it was a spring with some positives and negatives. James Happ’s numbers looked bad, but in the innings I saw him pitch, the stuff looked good. He was probably nervous more than anything, and a bit of time in AAA can’t hurt him, though I do wonder if he might not be more valuable pitching in the big league pen this year, and then going back to starting next year. Joe Bisenius got some quality work in, but he still needs to refine his control a bit more. Jason Jaramillo probably opened some eyes and showed he might be closer to the bigs than was expected when spring training started. On the flip side, Jim Ed Warden was a disappointment, and my first “bad guess” of 2007. Fabio Castro looked rough, and will probably need some time in the minors to get himself back on track. The Alfredo Simon experiment was brutal, and waiver signing Anderson Garcia didn’t look too great either. Greg Dobbs, though no longer a prospect, had a great spring, and could be a 5 year younger version of Chris Coste. That will just depend on how focused he remains and how hard he continues to work. Speaking of Coste, a rough spring for him, both hitting and healthwise. He could get the last spot on the 25 man roster, at least until Lieber comes back, or he might find himself on another team in a week. We’ll see.
In a vote that surprised me a bit, 19 of you that voted, 41%, said that we should trade Aaron Rowand and make Michael Bourn the everyday centerfielder. Obviously, some of you are very confident in his ability right now, or Michael had some free time in the clubhouse and just kept voting over and over again. Either way, here’s how the votes have lined up so far:
46 votes
19: Trade Rowand, make Bourn the starter
11: Make him the 4th/5th OF
11: Send him to Ottawa
5: Trade him for a young reliever
If you haven’t voted yet, please do so, and feel free to leave your comments either here or in yesterday’s post. We’ve had some good discussions here in the last week or so, and I’m hoping as the season progresses we get even more interaction.
The Phillies conclude their preseason with two games against Boston in Philadelphia tonight and tomorrow. Jon Lieber didn’t make the trip north, which means Zach Segovia will probably be on the team, even if only briefly, unless the Phillies make a trade. Right now, the Phillies 25 man roster looks like this;
C – Barajas
1B – Howard
2B – Utley
3B – Helms
SS – Rollins
LF – Burrell
CF – Rowand
RF – Victorino
C – Ruiz
INF – Nunez
INF – Dobbs
OF – Bourn
OF – Werth
SP – Myers
SP – Hamels
SP – Garcia
SP – Eaton
SP – Moyer
CL – Gordon
SU – Madson
RP – Geary
RP – Smith
RP – Alfonseca
RP – Condrey
RP – Lieber
If Lieber starts on the DL, that probably means that Segovia gets his spot, unless the Phillies go with Coste on the bench (when healthy) and only use 11 pitchers. When Lieber returns, one of them will have to go. Condrey is out of options, so if he’s sent down, he must clear waivers. If the Phillies trade for Rosario or another reliever, Condrey might also be let go. On the bench, Dobbs seems like the most expendable of the group, but he also had the best spring, and it’s tough to see him losing his job to Coste, especially since he can play both INF and OF.
I wouldn’t put a deal past Gillick at this point. If you remember back to last season at this time, we still had Rob Tejeda, who was traded at the 11th hour to Texas for Dave Dellucci. Should be interesting to see what happens. At this point, it looks like Bourn is going to be the only prospect to make the team out of camp, but Joe Bisenius is probably still the best bet to be the first prospect called up this season, barring an emergency start from either Happ or Segovia.
Also, one quick mention. I’m going to be writing all of the affiliate reports (except the VSL/DSL) for the start of the season, since I haven’t really had time to get everything coordinated, but as the season progresses, I should be able to integrate others into the mix. I want to try and create a uniform method for my madness before opening it up to everyone else. I’ve got big plans for this blog, but I need to make sure everything is running smoothly before branching out into a bunch of different directions. For those who have contacted me, thanks for the interest, and I will get more details to you at a later time.
With the latest round of cuts yesterday, it appears Michael Bourn is closer to making the big league team out of camp. Bourn has generated a bit of buzz this spring, I wrote a profile on him a while back, and in my prospect grades, I gave him a B-, noting his great speed, but his fringy offensive skill set. I’m going to attempt to turn this into a poll and see if we can get some idea of what people are thinking. I’ll give my thoughts and rationale under the poll, so you can vote before reading my take on it.
Go here to vote, then come back and keep reading.
To me, Bourn is a really risky guy going forward. As I have highlighted in the past, he’s going to realistically need a .400+ OB% to be an offensive asset in the majors, which will allow him to utilize his speed. Defensively, he seems fine, but he has very little power, and the small dimensions of Citizens Bank Park will likely rob him of a few doubles and triples because of the narrow power alleys. The Phillies can’t really be sure what they have in him, so it seems unlikely they’d just turn over an everyday job to him. At the same time, there is an argument that says he should be getting regular AB’s in Ottawa, but to me, I don’t know what benefit that will be. If they view his offense as fringy, is it really going to improve batting against a lot of minor league mercenaries in AAA? He hasn’t shown any power since his days in Low A, and that probably won’t change. As it is, he’s probably a valuable 5th OF now, able to play defensively at any of the 3 OF positions as well as pinch run in later innings. You also have the notion that other teams may value him because of his speed and defense, and a team like Florida has been mentioned as a possible suitor, mainly because they have no good in house options.
Anyway, I’m curious as to what people think, so please vote, and if you’d like, leave feedback in the comments section.
Before I get to the new tidbit about the Phillies interest in Francisco Rosario, I wanted to dig into the construction of the 25 man roster a bit, as it was mentioned in depth in this mlb.com article. The article basically outlines the makeup of the Phillies opening day roster, barring any more unforeseen developments. If Jon Lieber starts the season on the DL, the two open spots in the bullpen will likely be filled by Clay Condrey and Jim Ed Warden. The two bench spots will likely be filled by Karim Garcia and Greg Dobbs, with Chris Coste being the odd man out, mainly due to logistics and his hamstring tweak. It also appears that Jason Jaramillo will stick with the team if Carlos Ruiz isn’t ready for opening day, and that Michael Bourn could stay up with the team for the first few games if Freddy Garcia starts the year on the DL, allowing the Phillies to carry an extra player.
So, are these the right decisions? First, I think keeping Condrey over Segovia might be a mistake. However, if Condrey is going to just be a mop-up guy, then I guess it’s understandable. Segovia is still young and still has some promise, Condrey is your typical AAAA pitcher who is easily replaceable. Warden, because he’s a Rule 5 guy, is a bit of a different case. He’s had some rough outings and some solid outings this spring. Again, my hope is that the Phillies work out a trade with Cleveland where they get to keep Warden and option him to the minors so he can get comfortable before being thrust into the majors. The Phillies should contend for the division from Day 1, they can’t afford to use a 24 man roster and just hide Warden for the season like they did with Fabio Castro last year. As for the outfield, I’d prefer they kept Bourn over Garcia, mainly because I don’t think Garcia is going to sustain any type of success in the majors over the course of the season. Then again, if Aaron Rowand is traded, which has been a rumor basically since the winter meetings, then Bourn will almost assuredly get a spot in the OF. Dobbs has performed well this spring and has almost been the 2007 version of Chris Coste. Hopefully the Phillies can catch lightning in a bottle for the second year in a row.
Also, according to the Inquirer, the Phillies had scouts at the Blue Jays game keeping an eye on RHP Francisco Rosario. Rosario is out of options, which means if he isn’t kept on the Blue Jays 25 man roster, he must clear waivers before being sent to the minors. Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus ranked Rosario as the Blue Jays #5 prospect, saying
The Good: Tommy John survivor thrived in a move to the bullpen at Triple-A and finally reached the majors after a minor-league career that was long in years, but consisted of less than 500 innings. Rosario’s velocity is the best in the system, sitting at 93-95 mph and touching 98. As a reliever, his other primary pitch is a hard slider with good depth.
So, there is some talent there. Rosario, who turned 26 in June, has been slowed down with injuries, and as noted above, Tommy John surgery, hence him being out of options before he’s really made a mark at the big league level. He proved to be fairly unhittable at AAA last season, allowing only 29 hits in 42 innings, while striking out 50 and walking 13. He also kept the ball in the park, allowing only 2 HR, and posted a 50:28 GB to FB ratio. His big league debut wasn’t very good, largely because he allowed 16 walks in only 23 innings, but we can write that off to nerves and adjustment.
Rosario is a guy that can probably step right into the major league bullpen, and might be a better option going forward than a guy like Warden or Condrey, but the question is going to be what will it cost. With so many teams starving for arms, he surely won’t clear waivers, so the Phillies would need to make a deal for him. Stay tuned.
UPDATE ——> Per delewareonline, the Phillies released Karim Garcia. That puts an interesting twist on things, and could clear the way for Bourn as the 5th OF, or could assure Coste of a spot on the roster.
UPDATE 2 —-> The Jim Ed Warden experiment has ended, as he was re-claimed by the Indians today.
Busy day today, huh?
Buried at the bottom of this article, it mentions Michael Dubee will open at Lakewood. I’m not sure whether this is an oversight or whether it’s true. Back in January, I guessed on the Lakewood roster (which you can see by clicking on the left side of the page) and predicted Dubee would get a spot. I had my doubts, but felt he might get a slot in the rotation based on his pedigree and his last name, and it appears he could.
Also, an MLB.com article released an hour ago talks about Condrey and Warden battling for a shot at the big league pen. Condrey has been good except for one awful outing, Warden has been up and down. They also mention that either Segovia or Happ could be needed as a 5th starter if both Lieber and Garcia aren’t able to make their normal turns. Segovia will pitch on Saturday and be stretched out so he could pitch on Thursday if needed, Happ will start this Thursday and could be stretched out as well. Dennis Deitch waxes poetic on Happ in this article, comparing him to Randy Wolf. Should be quite an interesting final week of spring training.
Phuture Phillies 