All posts by giventofly41

The Phillies are interested in re-acquiring Travis D’Arnaud

Other Stuff

I thought this was an interesting little nugget included in Bob Elliot’s (Toronto Sun) column.

The Phillies have discussed possible ways on how to re-acquire catcher Travis D’Araund from the Jays. Good luck.

D’Arnaud is arguably the best prospect we’ve traded in the last 3 seasons. He appears to have star potential behind the plate if he can remain healthy. He was excellent in AA and is close to big league ready. The Jays have another good young catcher already in the majors in JP Arencibia, so they would be dealing from a position of strength, and they’d obviously ask for a ton in return. I’m sure nothing would happen on this, but its fun to ponder during the long cold winter.

What to expect in 2012, Sebastian Valle

2012 Expectations, Valle, Sebastian

I was thinking about the next player to write up, and Valle seemed like a great case. Always young for each league he’s played in, Valle had his best season in 2011 and performed very well in the pitcher friendly Florida State League, posting a line of .284/.312/.394, and that line may have been higher if he hadn’t worn down a bit in the hot summer sun over the last 6 weeks or so. Early in his career, Valle was considered an offensive first prospect whose future behind the dish was a bit uncertain. Over the last 2 seasons however, his athleticism and instincts have helped him improve tremendously defensively, and he now looks like no worse than an average defensive catcher with significant upside. He has a strong arm, and though he is still adding polish to his defensive game, all the tools are there. The question now is what is his offensive upside? Here is his career ledger

(click here to open in new tab)

32-33% caught stealing is solid enough, he cut down on his errors significantly, and the last piece is refining his ability to block pitches in the dirt. Offensively, his walk rate tanked and his K rate went up a tad, which means part of his batting average was definitely BABIP induced luck. Its important to remember the threshold for catchers in baseball. The average three slash line for all major league catchers in 2011 in the major leagues was .245/.313/.389. That’s putrid, obviously, and you only have to scan major league rosters to find guys who, if they played another position, would have been out of baseball years ago because they can’t hit their way out of a wet paper bag. Valle could struggle in AA, especially against quality offspeed stuff. The Phillies are probably anticipating this, and are fine with this, as long as he plays solid defense, which is going to be a requirement for him making it to the big leagues and contributing.

So, what do you expect from Valle in 2012 at Reading?

Quick take: The new CBA and the impact on the draft

03. Draft Central

Jeff Passan, who normally gets things right before reporting, has the details here in twitter form. To very briefly summarize, since an article outlining everything hasn’t been thrown up there yet, teams that go over the slot recommendations by more than 5% will face a tax, and if they go over by more than 10% they lose draft picks. The ramifications here are:

* Teams will no longer be able to pay big bonuses to players that slip in the draft. The Phillies never did this in the first round, but they have selectively done this in the middle-later rounds. This will impact pretty much everyone.
* The talent pool could potentially get gutted, especially in the prep ranks. A high school player with a full scholarship to a top notch program (like Vanderbilt, UVA, Stanford, etc) will now seemingly be unsignable outside of the top 5 picks, and even those guys might be unsignable.
* This will skew the draft heavily toward college talent.

I will have a more detailed writeup on these items when we start gearing up for the 2012 draft. Part of me is pissed, because this is going to really reduce the amount of draftable talent every year. Another part of me thinks this might give the Phillies a bigger advantage, because they have shown the superiority in their scouting abilities, consistently plucking up good players outside of the first 1-2 rounds, which is where most teams are spending huge sums of money.

These rules are going to really impact the freespending teams like Boston, the Yankees, Detroit, Kansas City (still shocking to write) and Toronto, among others, who have been a lot more aggressive in recent years. Now signability for slot becomes the single biggest factor when evaluating talent. What this essentially does is level the playing field financially, but I think its also going to greatly reduce the amount of elite talent available on a year to year basis (especially the next 3 years) and also drastically improve the quality of college baseball talent.

For now, discuss.

Open Discussion, 21 November 2011

Daily Discussion

You asked for it, you got it. Discuss whatever you’d like. Another “what to expect in 2012” is coming this week, so if there is someone you’d really like to see next, you can post it here. Otherwise, the floor is yours.

Today is 40 man roster deadline day

Rule 5 Draft

Today is the last day for teams to add minor leaguers to the 40 man roster and protect them from the Rule 5 draft held at next month’s winter meetings. The Phillies will have a few interesting decisions of course, and I’ll update this space when everything is decided. As of right now, the 40 man roster looks like this:

Catchers (3): Ruiz, Kratz, Schneider
Infielders (10): Thome, Howard, Utley, H Garcia, C Hernandez, Polanco, Valdez, Galvis, Rivero, M Martinez
Outfielders (6): Bowker, Brown, Francisco, Mayberry, Victorino, Pence

Pitchers (16): Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Worley, Blanton, Kendrick, Papelbon, Bastardo, Stutes, Schwimer, Herndon, Contreras, De Fratus, Savery, JC Ramirez, Mathieson

That means they are at 35. Obviously a few more MLB players will be added (OF, 3B possibly, SS for sure) but they still have plenty of room, and if need be, they can remove someone else from the roster. I’m looking at you, John Bowker.

So, the update will go here after its all settled. You can reference this post from last month where we talked about guys who could be protected. I think its a lock the Phillies will protect Valle, Aumont, Gillies, and Jiwan James. That would take the roster to 39, which gives them room to add one guy in the Rule 5 draft, assuming no other big league signings happen before then. But again, there are guys currently on the 40 man who are candidates to be outrighted off the roster. We’ll see what happens.

Update, 1:15 PM —> The Phillies protected Aumont, Valle, Gillies, and Jacob Diekman, bringing the roster to 39 right now. That leaves them one 40 man spot for the Rule 5 draft, barring any other moves.

What to expect in 2012: Jon Pettibone

2012 Expectations, Pettibone, Jon

In part 1 of this series, we took a look at what to expect from Trevor May in 2012, and today we’ll move on to RHP Jon Pettibone. Pettibone has been a bit of an enigma since signing in 2008. He was not highly touted by scouts entering the draft and the report indicated he may be better off honing his game in college and then re-entering the draft. After a 1 inning stint in 2008, he pitched just 35 innings in 2009 before logging a full season in both 2010 and 2011, moving one level at a time. His raw numbers have improved across the board, especially in 2011, and his K rate increase is the most notable, though its still below average. More importantly, the scouting reports on Pettibone have greatly improved. His fastball is now consistently 90-94, up from the 88-92 range where he was when drafted. Not only has the velocity improved, his command to both sides of the plate with the pitch has also improved, and his command in general is possibly the best of any Phillies starting pitching prospect. His secondary pitches are still developing, but both his changeup and breaking ball made strides in 2011. His career work to date (click to enlarge)

Like Trevor May, he will move to Reading in 2012. As we’ve documented a number of times, the jump from A+ to AA is a big one, especially in the Phillies system where you go from a pitcher friendly league in the FSL to the more offensive neutral Eastern League, but Reading’s home park plays as a decisive hitter’s environment, making the adjustments all the more crucial. So, what do you expect from Pettibone in 2012, and how have your expectations and impressions of him changed in the last 12 months?

Discussion: Potential minor league free agents of note

Daily Discussion

I’m going to focus on the external options here, as we’ve already reviewed the Phillies minor league free agents. You can check all minor league free agents using BA’s tracker here. I just picked out a few guys I find interesting. None of these guys are likely to be big time MLB contributors in 2012 or any time, for that matter, but they might be good depth guys who can fill in if the injury bug hits. In other words, these guys might be better than the Dane Sardinha’s of the world.

C – Lucas May (Age 27) – He has only 39 MLB PAs, and he was awful during that time. But its 39 PA. His OPS numbers the last 3 years: .757, .831, and .858. He’s not a defensive ace, at least judging by his CS% (28% career, but 33% in 2011) but he’s not terrible.
1B – Koby Clemens (turns 25 in Aug) – Clemens struggled in 2011, putting up just a .756 OPS at AAA as a 24 year old. But the year before he put up a .241/.350/.476 line at AA. He struggles with contact (260 K the last 2 years), but he also has hit 16, 26 and 22 HR the last three years. Righthanded infield power is increasingly rare these days, he might be worth a look.
1B – Jeff Clement (Age 28) – Taken 3rd overall in the 2005 draft, he looks like one of the bigger top 5 overall busts in recent memory, but there might still be something there. He’s struggled with injuries, logging just 262 minor league ABs the last 2 seasons, along with just 144 pro ABs in that time. He always had the physical tools, he just never put it together.
2B – Yangervis Solarte (Age 24) – Signed out of Venezuela in 2005 (debuted in 2006), he’s made a slow climb, but put together his best season yet in 2011, hitting .329/.367/.466 at AA, 46 XBH. More impressively, he struck out just 38 times (with 24 BB) and doesn’t appear to be a total butcher at 2B, in that he committed only 1 error. He seems like an ideal guy to give a shot to.
3B – Matt Antonelli (Age 26) – Another first rounder (17th overall, 2006) who hasn’t lived up to the billing who also had some injury issues. He did hit .297/.393/.460 for the Nats AAA team last year. He also played SS, 3B, 2B, and OF. Looks like a nice utility guy to take a shot on.
3B – Brandon Wood (Age 26…27 on opening day) – I’ve always been a Brandon Wood apologist, arguing that he just needed playing time. The Pirates kind of gave him playing time in 20111, then they stopped, and he ended up with just 250 AB in 2011. He swings and misses a lot, but he can still drive the ball, and he can play SS, though you wouldn’t want him there every day. Again, a guy who can play both SS/3B is valuable, especially RH power. Now he’s free, so I’m still supporting bringing him in.
OF – Quintin Berry (Age 27) – Our old friend Quintin. Berry’s skill set remains unchanged, as he stole 40 bases in 2011 and posted a .397 OB%. He still has no power, his K total was a little on the high side (22%), but if we need a cheap 5th OF for defensive purposes/pinch running, he might be a good candidate.
LHP – Chuck Lofgren (Age 25…26 on Opening Day) – Lofgren was a quality prospect heading in to the 2008 season, having made the BA Top 100 the two previous years. Then things fell apart. But he still was effective against lefties in 2011, and it may be time to convert him to a full time reliever and just see if his stuff will tick up in one inning stints.

These are just a few guys I like at a quick glance. There are other interesting names, but since none of these guys is likely to make an impact anywhere, I won’t spend more time digging. If you see anyone else of note, please post it in the comments.

Arizona Fall League Update, 12 November 2011

8. Arizona Fall League

It hasn’t been a great AFL season for the Phillies reps. But Jacob Diekman has done well (except the walks). Find all the rest below the fold.

Continue reading Arizona Fall League Update, 12 November 2011 →

What to expect in 2012: Trevor May

2012 Expectations

Since things are a bit slow, I figured we would try something new. Every few days, I’m going to start a new post in what will be a series looking at a bunch of our key prospects heading in to 2012, and what we think, both individually and as a group, the players will do. We’ll discuss where they are likely to start the season, things they need to work on, and what expectations are for each guy in the new season. Keep these posts on point, and if you want to ramble on about something random, use the most recent open discussion post.

That said, we’ll start with RHP Trevor May. Through prospect graduations and trades, and also his strong bouneback season, May is now the Phillies top prospect heading in to 2012. A lot is expected of him, and the jump to AA will be a big test. When he moved up to Clearwater the first time, he struggled mightily and needed a tune-up back at Lakewood. The move to AA from A+ is maybe the sharpest in the minors (you could argue short season to Low A) in terms of the quality of competition, and the learning curve can be steep. Hitters are more experienced and disciplined, pitchers have better command, and it helps to separate the men from the boys. May’s career grid looks like this (click to enlarge)

It won’t come as a surprise to you, but I think the biggest key for May in 2012 is fastball command. He can get away with mistakes against inexperienced A ball hitters, especially up in the zone, but more disciplined hitters in AA will lay off that pitch up and out of the zone. If May pounds the bottom half of the zone with his fastball and can set up his curve, he’ll be fine. If he doesn’t throw strikes, the results could be ugly. 2012 is a big year for him. He made stride with his command in 2011, and he needs to build on it in 2012.

Whats your take? How do you think he will fare in Reading?

Baseball America’s Phillies Top 10 list

Top Prospect Lists

The list is free for all to read here. The scouting reports are subscriber only content, so don’t copy/paste. I’ll summarize in one sentence the reports and I’ll provide my own thoughts on the list after the jump.

01. Trevor May, RHP – Raw stuff still good, added a slider in 2011, now a 4 pitch guy, repeating his delivery better (improved command/control)
02. Jesse Biddle, LHP – Velo down, changeup/curveball both very good considering his age/experience
03. Sebastian Valle, C – Good athlete, improving defense
04. Jonathan Pettibone, RHP – Velo is up (now 90-94 touching 95) and has taken to the 2 seam fastball
05. Phillippe Aumont, RHP – Command still an issue, and apparently so is his attitude (first time I’ve heard that)
06. Freddy Galvis, SS – You’ve heard it all before, great glove, weak stick
07. Justin De Fratus, RHP – Slider has improved
08. Brody Colvin, RHP – Questions about his delivery/mechanics leading to health issues
09. Jiwan James, OF – Superb defender, better hitter lefthanded, may scrap switch hitting soon
10. Maikel Franco, 3B – Unconventional swing but great bat speed, not a good athlete but could stay at 3B or move to C

My immediate reaction below

Continue reading Baseball America’s Phillies Top 10 list →