Weekly Discussion (11/13/22)

Well, I’ve run out of more descriptive names for the weekly discussion, so we’ll just go with the above.

We picked up a lot of new commenters and some returning commenters, so I’ll take this opportunity to state our few rules.

Phuture Phillies is a Phillies’ prospect site, first,  Most articles will be about the minor leaguers.  Comments under those articles must be about prospects.

A weekly discussion (most often on Sunday), provides a space to discuss the major league team and organizational topics.  If these comments show up in the wrong spots, they are deleted.

Be civil in your interactions with others.  If you’re not, you could be blocked for an indeterminate period.  Currently, no one is on probation and no one has been for a few months.

Watch your language.  Don’t use words/phrases you wouldn’t use in front of your young children.  Currently, we have been operating with zero banned words since the Phillies won the wild card round.  No one has felt the need to use coarse language.  But, if I have to become the language police, your comment will be deleted and the banned word list will begin to grow.

 If you choose to comment, the site requires a name and e-mail address.  We require you use just one name (not multiple names, not someone else’s name, not the name of a Phillie, former Phillie, or another public figure).  We require that the e-mail address is with a real e-mail site. Note that some names have been grandfathered in before the name requirement was put in place.

Baseball only.  No politics, current events, religion, or any topic not related to professional baseball.  I’ve been lax allowing personal stuff.  I can’t continue to overlook it with so many new readers commenting.  Please keep the talk to the Phillies, their prospects, draft prospects, and MLB stuff.

That was much longer than I intended.

New Stuff

I’ve added a new menu option above – Offseason Files.  It is on the far left and includes articles and spreadsheets that can serve as references as the offseason progresses.  It also includes the roster files I’ve kept in the past.

The hot stove should cool a little as we wait for free agents to sign.  I’m going to take that spare time to update the prospect profiles and maybe rearrange their display.

The readers’ top thirty will pick up again.  I might wait until after the Rule 5 Draft but may start sooner to accommodate my schedule.

Arizona Fall League

The Surprise Saguaros, made up of prospects from 5 MLB organizations including the Phillies and Astros, won the AFL championship last night, 7-6 in an 11-inning walk-off over the Glendale Desert Dogs.

It was an exciting game with both teams scoring in both extra frames.  It included a lot of strikeouts and each team preserved its chances by throwing out players at the plate.  The Saguaros’ first and only lead came on the game-winning single by an Astros prospect.

Some Phillies figured prominently.

Carlos De La Cruz went 2-5 and reached base twice in the later innings of regulation to give his team a chance to score.  They didn’t but he displayed excellent discipline stroking singles in those at bats.

Cristian Hernandez entered the game with nobody on base and one out in the fifth inning and allowed a solo HR before retiring the next two batters on fly balls to the outfield.

Francisco Morales retired five batters, all on strikeouts.  He struck out the side in the seventh inning and answered the bell in the eighth.  He allowed a single and two walks and was relieved with two outs after the second walk.  TBH, the second out came on a terrible pitch that the batter swung at on a full count.  He was allowed to throw a total of 38 pitches.  That had the announcers chirping through is final two batters.  The reliever retired the next batter on a drive into the gap that was caught on the run by the center fielder, Carlos De La Cruz.

Hernandez really improved his stock this fall.  De La Cruz did also.  He’ll probably be targeted during the Rule 5 draft.  Morales has likely pushed his way back into consideration as a bullpen piece.  Rojas impressed before a slight injury and a family emergency ended his fall.

For the season, the Phillies’ prospects achieved the following –

  • Carlos De La Cruz: 17 G, 68 PA, 62 AB, 9 R, 19 H, 0 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 4 BB, 27 K, .306/.368/.516/.884
  • Johan Rojas: 12 G, 52 PA, 42 AB, 10 R, 13 H, 4 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 8 BB, 8 K, 13 SB, 0 CS, .310/.423/.452/.875
  • Jhailyn Ortiz: 14 G, 53 PA, 43 AB, 7 R, 7 H, 0 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 8 BB, 15 K, .163/.321/.372/.693
  • Francisco Morales: 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 9 G, 0 GS, 2 SV, 2 SVO, 10.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 HR, 7 BB, 17 K, 1.03 WHIP, .108 AVG
  • Cristian Hernandez: 2-0, 0.82 ERA, 8 G, 1 GS, 0 SV, 0 SVO, 11.0 IP, 9 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 11 K, 0.91 WHIP, .214 AVG
  • Brett Schulze: 0-0, 1.08 ERA, 8 G, 0 GS, 1 SV, 1 SVO, 8.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 HR, 6 BB, 10 K, 0.96 WHIP,.077 AVG
  • Taylor Lehman: 0-2, 6.17 ERA, 8 G, 0 GS, 0 SV, 0 SVO, 11.2 IP, 10 H, 10 R, 8 ER, 2 HR, 8 BB, 16 K, 1.54 WHIP, .222 AVG

Hot Stove

It’s hot stove season.  While we wait for the announcement of the signing we all expect, let’s continue speculating.  Watch out for the stupid rumors.

Like this.  All the Xander Bogaerts speculation stems from an article by a Red Sox beat writer (Peter Abraham from the Boston Globe) who, I’m sure, accepted a lead from Bogaerts’ agent.  This is the extent of the lead from his story, “Hearing that if the Sox let Xander Bogaerts get to the open market, the Phillies will be eager suitors”.  And, now Heyman picked it up with nothing more than clickbait.  Hack.  Two hacks, actually.  Maybe the Phillies have an interest, but nobody knows.  The only reason we “know” the Phillies are targeting Trea Turner is because Bryce Harper likes him.

In what may be good or bad news depending on your position, the Phillies may be content with their lineup and bench.  This is of course after they sign a free agent shortstop.  That would mean there is no market for Castellanos even at a discount with a sweetener.

A TOR pitcher is not a likely addition.  Nick Martinez is a guy they might target.  He wants to start and once we get him here, he can transition to the bullpen if one of the prospects forces his way out of Reading/Lehigh Valley.

A couple of good relief pitchers are a likely addition.  I would have preferred that the Phillies strike quickly, much the same as the Braves have in recent years.  But, early relief pitcher signings are for ridiculous salary and length.  These were guys signing with their former teams.  Hopefully, the market settles down before all the best pitchers are signed.

So, it’s easier to predict the lineup than it is the pitching staff.  Realmuto behind the plate.  Hoskins, Stott, Turner, and Bohm around the infield.  Schwarber, Marsh, and Castellanos in the outfield.  And, Hall at DH.  The bench will be Stubbs, Sosa, Vierling, and Maton or Guthrie.  The most likely scenario is that Harper is not prepared to play at the start of the season.  If Harper is able to DH, then scratch Hall.  Hall is insurance against the first circumstance or a reinjury that extends Harper’s rehab.  One significant alteration might be Rojas on the bench if he has a good showing in spring training.

The pitching staff is harder to predict.  The rotation will include Nola, Wheeler, Suarez, a free agent, and probably Falter.  He did make 16 starts last season.  The team went 11-5 in his starts.  His record was 6-3 with a 3.76 ERA.  He walked 15 and struck out 71 in 76.2 innings.  He threw 68% strikes, recorded 19% strikes looking, and 12% swinging.  He had a 53% ground ball rate, but his 13% fly ball rate included 14 HRs.  I had no idea Falter’s numbers as a starter were so good, other than the HRs.  His BB9 was 1.76 and his K9 was 8.33.  His BB% and K% were 4.7% and 22.3% as a starter.

The bullpen is even tougher.  Alvarado,  Brogdon, and Dominguez are locks.  Bellatti, Coonrod, Nelson, and Morales will probably get strong consideration for two or three of the spots.  As well as new guys Vasquez and Ortiz.  I think it unlikely that all eight bullpen guys are currently in the organization.  I think guys like Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo, Matt Wisler, and Trevor Williams could be among the early targets.

Most of the IronPigs roster elected free agency.  I expect the Phillies to stock the roster in much the same fashion as last season.  I expect to see a continuation of signings like Vasquez and Ortiz.  I expect only a handful of promotions from Reading.

Now, just to sit and wait.

Key Dates

Trading resumed and free agency started (with a 5-day period where free agents could only negotiate with their former teams) the day after the World Series ended.

The GM meetings in Las Vegas concluded this week.

Thursday marked the official start of free agency with no restrictions, the deadline for options to be accepted/declined, and the deadline for teams to extend qualifying offers.

  • November 15, 2022: Deadline to submit 40-man rosters before the Rule 5 Draft.
  • November 18, 2022: Non-tender Deadline – The last day for teams to offer 2023 contracts to arb eligible players.  Non-tendered players become free agents.
  • November 20, 2022: Deadline for free agents to accept qualifying offers.
  • December 4-7, 2022: The 2022 Baseball Winter Meetings will take place in San Diego.
    • December 7, 2022: Rule 5 Draft
  • December 15, 2022: Close of the 2021-2022 international signing period.
  • January 13, 2023: Deadline for teams and players to submit salary figures for arbitration.
  • January 15, 2023: Opening of the 2022-2023 international signing period.
  • February 25, 2023: Phillies First Spring Training Game (split squad)
  • March 30, 2023: Season Opener at Texas Rangers
  • April 6, 2023: Home Opener v. Cincinnati Reds
  • July 2023: Rule 4 Amateur Draft
  • December 15, 2023: Close of the 2022-2023 international signing period.


One transaction today –

11/12/2022 – Reading activated RHP Blake Brown from the 60-day IL

And a whole bunch since the season free agency started –

11/10/2022 – Phillies activated RHP James McArthur from the 60-day IL
11/10/2022 – Phillies activated CF Simon Muzziotti from the 60-day IL
11/10/2022 – RHP Mark Appel elected free agency
11/10/2022 – RHP Trevor Bettencourt elected free agency
11/10/2022 – RHP Nick Duron elected free agency
11/10/2022 – LHP Kent Emanuel elected free agency
11/10/2022 – LHP Jace Fry elected free agency
11/10/2022 – RHP Ofreidy Gomez elected free agency
11/10/2022 – LHP Jonathan Hennigan elected free agency
11/10/2022 – RHP James Marvel elected free agency
11/10/2022 – LHP Braeden Ogle elected free agency
11/10/2022 – RHP Bubby Rossman elected free agency
11/10/2022 – LHP Ryan Sherriff elected free agency
11/10/2022 – 2B Daniel Brito elected free agency
11/10/2022 – SS Ali Castillo elected free agency
11/10/2022 – 3B Yairo Munoz elected free agency
11/10/2022 – 1B Josh Ockimey elected free agency
11/10/2022 – 2B Daniel Robertson elected free agency
11/10/2022 – RF Jorge Bonifacio elected free agency
11/10/2022 – LF Dustin Peterson elected free agency
11/10/2022 – CF Chris Sharpe elected free agency
11/10/2022 – RF Justin Williams elected free agency
11/10/2022 – RHP Joel Cesar elected free agency
11/10/2022 – 1B Aldrem Corredor elected free agency
11/10/2022 – SS Jonathan Guzman elected free agency
11/10/2022 – 2B Wendell Rijo elected free agency
11/10/2022 – SS Kevin Vicuna elected free agency
11/10/2022 – LF Josh Stephen elected free agency
11/10/2022 – RHP Andrew Brown elected free agency
11/10/2022 – Lehigh Valley activated RHP Tyler Phillips from the Full Season IL
11/10/2022 – Reading activated 3B Matt Kroon from the 60-day IL
11/10/2022 – Jersey Shore activated LHP Spencer Van Scoyoc from the 60-day IL
11/10/2022 – Jersey Shore activated SS Casey Martin from the 60-day IL
11/10/2022 – Jersey Shore activated LHP Jhordany Mezquita from the Full Season IL
11/10/2022 – Clearwater activated CF Yhoswar Garcia from the 60-day IL
11/10/2022 – Clearwater activated RHP Tommy McCollum from the 60-day IL
11/10/2022 – Clearwater activated RHP Micah Ottenbreit from the Full Season IL
11/10/2022 – Clearwater activated RHP Eduar Segovia from the 60-day IL
11/10/2022 – FCL Phillies activated RHP Drew Garrett Full Season IL
11/10/2022 – FCL Phillies activated OF Gabriel Rincones Jr Full Season IL
11/10/2022 – FCL Phillies activated RHP Nathan Karaffa from the 60-day IL
11/10/2022 – FCL Phillies activated OF Gavin Tonkel from the 60-day IL
11/09/2022 – Phillies signed free agent LHP Wesley Moore to an MiLB contract
11/09/2022 – Phillies sent RHP Mark Appel outright to Lehigh Valley
11/09/2022 – Phillies sent RHP Hans Crouse outright to Lehigh Valley
11/09/2022 – Phillies sent LHP Kent Emanuel outright to Lehigh Valley
11/09/2022 – Phillies sent LHP Damon Jones outright to Lehigh Valley
11/09/2022 – Phillies sent 3B Yairo Munoz outright to Lehigh Valley
11/09/2022 – Phillies claimed RHP Luis Ortiz off waivers from San Francisco
11/09/2022 – Phillies claimed LHP Andrew Vasquez off waivers from San Francisco
11/07/2022 – RHP Zach Eflin elected free agency
11/07/2022 – SS Jean Segura elected free agency
11/06/2022 – RHP Chris Devenski elected free agency
11/06/2022 – RHP Kyle Gibson elected free agency
11/06/2022 – LHP Brad Hand elected free agency
11/06/2022 – RHP Corey Knebel elected free agency
11/06/2022 – RHP David Robertson elected free agency
11/06/2022 – RHP Noah Syndergaard elected free agency


191 thoughts on “Weekly Discussion (11/13/22)

  1. Thank you for all of the information. I agree on your assessment this offseason will be a SS, mid range starter like Martinez and BP help. My only other thought is that they trade someone like Abel or McGarry for a controllable number 3-4 type. I’d love a SS and Rodon but even that may be too rich for the Phillies pockets. Gotta love the way some of our guys have played in AFL.

  2. Jim…I second the thanks for all the hard work and information you provide for all of us. I agree with you on the so-called rumors. Heyman seems to be the worst and he seems to be the smuggest of all of the insider guys. I had almost forgot about him till I saw him popping up again last week on some of the MLB shows. Where does he go during the season? Or maybe I just do not look in the right or wrong places.

    I enjoy seeing all the comments and like you hope everyone can continue to do so in a civil way. It is ok to disagree with a comment but no need to berate or get personal with someone. I hope this site continues for a long time. Thanks again.

  3. I think SS is the goal, and Turner is the target. I also agree on a mid-rotation SP, and BP help. I have been a bit surprised at the 3 contracts so far given out to RPs. Higher than I guessed, maybe so because their current teams did not want to get into protracted bidding wars, so I am waiting for a RP to leave his team and see what he gets. I expect DD to be very aggressive in going after Turner, and I don’t see any of the 3 SP prospects going anywhere. The team raves about them, and I don’t feel as though that is simply to increase their market value.

  4. Hinkie……correct me if I am wrong, but Phillies could draft 27, 28 or 29th next draft if Mets and Dodgers exceed the initial comp-balance tax threshold of $230M by more than $40M.
    Mets…Est. Lux.Tax Payroll … $294M
    Dodgers….Est. Lux.Tax Payroll….$269,826,720

    1. Romus … according to Fangraph’s Roster Resource, the Mets eclipsed the second threshold. Their payroll was 281M. The Dodgers, however, stayed just under that +40M mark. Their 2022 LTT number was 269M. So that means the Mets pick is docked 10 spots. It falls behind the Phillies, who should pick at 1-28.
      That could maybe put them in play for Maui Ahuna, the former Kansas SS who has transferred to Tennesse for the 2023 season.
      Or … (and I’m not wishing injury on any college kid) they could benefit from a TJ or two to a top college pitcher(s). Last season, guys like Connor Prielipp, Reggie Crawford, Hunter Barco, and Peyton Pallette all fell to below 1-28. All of those guys were projected top half of the first round college pitchers before the season, but suffered TJs.

      1. My bad, Romus. You’re right. Mets payroll was 294M. In any event, they were over the third penalty level, and they will pick behind the Phillues.

        1. Thanks Hinkie….28 it is,
          …so the Phillies pick up an approx. extra $100K in slot money going from 29 to 28.

  5. It’s going to be a serious waiting game right now. Everybody is waiting for a big FA SS (likely Turner or Correa) to set the market for the other FA SS. It’s safe to say that no teams wants to give Lindor money (10 years, $341M) to anybody.

    The reliever money is way out of whack and I’m sure the rest of the teams are not willing to give that type of money to the remaining FA relievers (imagine if the Phillies gave Knebel that multi year deal he wanted). So we’re waiting here too.

    I’m not one to think that the Phillies are in the market for a #3 starter. Those guys are plenty expensive already, and we have elite starting pitching propects that are close. If the Phillies are splurging, I think they’ll go after SS and some relievers and that’s about it. But the Phillies will stick to a contract that works for them i.e. not giving Kris Bryant extra years on a deal. I wouldn’t be surprised if teams start waiting for the numbers to come down (and the MLBPA will cry foul about collusion).

      1. In this case, I’m talking about a starter who pitches like a 3. Presumably, the Phillies are not trying to get pitchers who are 4s and 5s because I think they have it in their system already..

        1. Who remembers 2008 with Roy holladay, Cole hamels, Cliff Lee, and Roy Oswalt. And with the perfect Brad lidge to close it out. To match that pitching staff the Phillies need another Elite starter with the abilities of a Verlander or a sale. Looking back at the whip leaders in 2008 Phillies had the top three slots. Wow I didn’t realize they were that dominant.

  6. FWIW….PhillyVoice did a poll today:
    Should the Phillies bring back Darick Hall?
    Yes …73.96% (372 votes)
    No… 26.04% (131 votes)

  7. The other polls:
    Should the Phillies bring back… Edmundo Sosa?
    Yes.. 96.06% (512 votes)
    No… 3.94% (21 votes)
    Should the Phillies bring back… Garrett Stubbs?
    Yes… 90.96% (463 votes)
    No…. 9.04% (46 votes)
    Should the Phillies bring back… Nick Maton?
    Yes…88.21% (434 votes)
    No… 11.79% (58 votes
    Should the Phillies bring back… Matt Vierling?
    Yes… 66.32% (321 votes)
    No…. 33.68% (163 votes)

  8. So the Cubs cut Jason Heyward with 1 year left on his deal and ate $22M. At age 26, he signed a 8 year, $184M which doesn’t seem that bad considering he was a near 5 WAR player before the deal. It was a disaster deal for the Cubs. For $184M, Heyward delivered 8.9 WAR (not a typo)! Even in the most optimistic scenarios, the Cubs overpayed him by $100M+ easy.

    1. Guru, I was a Theo Epstein fan, but this was a bad signing from the get go, that got worse. He was never a really good hitter, ok, I guess you could say. He had a 20 something HR year, I think, but he was supposed to be a terrific defensive OF, so elite, that his contract was based mostly on Defense. Then his hitting got bad, and I don’t know if whatever someone thinks about his D, he could have ever been worth what he got paid.

      1. In the minors, he roomed with Freddy Freeman and Heyward was thought to be the better prospect at the time. Didn’t work out that way…

  9. I really don’t understand the love for Nathan Eovaldi. He got a QO from Boston, but he’s been barely starter level his entire career. He had 1 good year (2021, 4.5 WAR) and that’s about it. In 11 seasons, he’s delivered 16.2 WAR and made $80M+ in salary. And he’s had his share of injuries.

    Aaron Nola’s numbers blows Eovaldi’s numbers by a mile. It’s staggering how good Nola is compared to others.

    1. I think this is part of the reason why people tend to over value Eovaldi.
      FB Velo:

      1. I get that he throws hard, but results need to come first. He’s gotten better as he ages, but with his injury history, you wonder how long he can last.

        1. What I think happens, is that some GMs may think…..’oh yeah, here is the next Charlie Morton, the late bloomer’….and then take the chance.
          They will take that risk. …roll the dice.
          Others not so.

  10. I don’t know how the Poll worked out for him, Romus, but I think Nick Castellanos will be back. My opinion is based simply on my belief that we don’t eat money and give away prospects to move him. So, I hope he turns it around. To me, and I am nowhere close to being a hitting expert, his biggest problem was constantly swinging at that slider out of the strike zone, and out by a lot. He seemed off balance all year, and I know we kept hearing “he’s too good a hitter, and he will snap back to what he has done before”, but the World Series came and went, and he never did. I don’t know why he couldn’t stop swinging at that pitch. If he was making contact, and didn’t have as much power maybe that’s the residual of his sore wrist, but I don’t know how to fix not picking up the breaking pitch. But, I sure hope he does.

    1. matt13……agree.
      Castellanos’ flaws were really exposed this year…..’outside the zone’ chaser and first pitch swinging. Two habits that will doom a hitter.
      Hopefully he can adjust next season…if he is here.

      1. What made Thompson so good was also his downfall. He settled things down with his defined roles approach. You’d be hard pressed to convince me that oblique injury was fully healed.

        When I see someone fly open the way he was it tells me they are trying to cheat to catch up to velocity.

        When Nick was going good in his career he kept that front shoulder closed off and drove balls routinely to the right center gap. A lot like Bohm with his long levers.

        That was gone thus the flailing away at sliders. He couldn’t or didn’t trust himself to allow the ball to travel and still be able to get the barrel to it. And he was probably right. I’m sure it wasn’t because he changed as a hitter.

        Pain. Good hitters don’t mysteriously become bad hitters until something physical gets them.

  11. Matt…one of the things I thought all season was that Nick used a really big bat. I agree that it appeared on TV that he looked off balance most of the time. He was off balance on last at bat of Series. Maybe it was just my TV but looked like a really long bat he was using. I did not see him a lot in years past but seemed much quicker to the pitch than this year. Always seemed late most of the time.

  12. Falter was good! Thanks for the stats Jim. Once they stopped yo-yoing him between LHV and Philadelphia, he showed he might be a #5. He’s still young and hope he keeps developing.

    1. Falter is a nice option as a #5 starter. Unless he evolves some more (he could), he’s not a guy you want starting a postseason game, but he’s a very solid #5 – probably something like a 2+ WAR pitcher which is very good for the last guy in the rotation. Agreed they will sign another FA starter – the market for that will be interesting – but they will leave room for the young guns to come up during the season. Still believe that the SS signing will be the biggest acquisition of the offseason and will address some of the contact issues the team has in the middle of its line-up. Team will likely emerge from the offseason as a projected 90-93 win team – which is fine and better than last year.

    1. Rizzo signed 2/$40 with Yankees but I think the last team right now that would trade for Rhys would be the Astros

  13. Today the Phillies decide who to protect on the roster from the rule 5 draft. Rojas is a slam dunk and I believe De La Cruz will also be protected plus a pitcher or two maybe Andrew Schultz, Brett Schulze, and-or Erik Miller.
    Roster sits at 36 with 4 open spots.
    Several players are holding spots they could lose this offseason.

    1. Rojas and Miller will be protected. Schultz and Schulze might be exposed and either or both could be selected. For those who haven’t seen Schultz pitch – he has one of the strangest motions I’ve ever seen , but, unlike Clayton Kershaw, I don’t think his motion makes his pitches more deceptive. De la Cruz is our big breakout hitting prospect from last year and the potential is real. For those who keep mentioning Aaron Judge as a comp, you can forget about it. Judge has a defensive end type body. De la Cruz has a wide receiver type body. His comp is Harold Carmichael. But he does have a lot of power and they are obviously putting him at first base from time to time in anticipation that Hoskins may not be on the team in 2024 (in fact, I’d have to say the odds are against Hoskins sticking around).

      1. De La Cruz now insists he is 6’9’…he grew some since the Phillies signed him in Aug 2017…..and has added more weight.

      2. Hinkie handicaps:

        Rojas and Miller … definites
        De La Cruz … more likely than not
        McKinley Moore … more likely than Shultz or Schulze

        1. I think Muzziotti and Ortiz have had their run through the organization. Mixed results with the conclusion that it’s time for both to be removed from the 40 man roster. Agree that Rojas, De La Cruz and Miller will be protected. Other pitchers? Who knows. And which eligibles within the organization would even be that desirable anyway?

          1. Mark8:29, Muzziotti and Ortiz are the 2 position players that came to my mind they may either waive, release, or attempt a minor trade with. There are a small handful of pitchers they could try to run through waivers as well. But most of those moves will likely occur when the spot is needed (signing of free agents, prior to rule 5 draft, etc…)

          2. Just a hunch…..but I think they leave Erik Miller unprotected and hope he passes thru the draft, if so, and then send him to LHV again..

  14. 6:00 PM today is the deadline, ET, so we should start hearing names later this afternoon. Hinkie, I didn’t even think of Moore. I believe he had about 70 Ks in 50 innings, with a number of BBS, so I am guessing another strong armed guy with command issues?

    1. There was an article on the Phillies website suggesting that Rojas was the only player protected and all other draftable players, which would include Miller and More and presumably De la Cruz, were left exposed. Miller or De la Cruz could easily be drafted.

      1. Other prospects eligible who the Phillies did not protect include right-hander Cristian Hernández and left-hander Ethan Lindow.
        Hernandez just pitched in the AFL, so many MLB scouts saw him.
        He could get selected.
        I doubt Moore gets selected and Miller has has some health issues moving him from a starter to the pen….so teams could be wary of that.
        And 24-year old Lindow is strictly a starter and has yet to pitch above AA, so doubt he gets selected.

        1. There may be other under-the-radar deals they anticipate making in addition to big FA signings. Don’t forget how they added Stubbs, Sands, Nelson and Bellatti last year.

    2. What puzzles me…why the need to protect OFers Ortiz and Simon Muzziotti, and pitchers Taylor Scott, and James McArthur…they probably will get thru the draft and be able to come back to LHV on minor league contracts.

  15. I don’t understand either, Romus. I would wager that at least 2 of them are part of some trade. We currently have 3 spots on the 40 Man, for Turner, a BP arm, and another SP?

    1. matt…agree…..and I can only assume the Phillies will not participate in the Rule 5, so they will fill the remaining three open 40 slots thru FA signings or trades.

  16. I don’t know who may be available, Romus, but if there is an arm they think they can keep on the Roster all year, and can help the team, they can pick him up and move one of Scott or McArthur, but that seems like a real longshot to me. I don’t see them wasting a spot on the 40 Man, when they will have serious WS aspirations, but I guess there may be some guy ready to blossom, and only we know who it is! A real longshot!

  17. There are 3 spots available but I expect they will still add at least 6 or 7 players to the roster. When they get to a full roster they will run those on the fringe thru waivers hoping they go unclaimed. And they could still work the rule 5 draft – likely for a relief pitcher but the chances of them keeping him on roster all year is slim.

  18. Leaving Miller unprotected is the dumbest thing the Phillies have done in ages. A consensus BA/MILB Top-10 Phillies Prospect, Futures Game pitcher is left off?? The Phillies will get nothing except $25k. I know in every Rule 5 draft only a handful of players exposed get drafted, but Miller is gone..

    1. A team will have to keep him on their 26 all season….not sure many teams can afford to do that, at least those who want to contend.
      Then there were the shoulder issues that sidelined him from participating in big league spring training in 2021 and lingered …2022 saw him in that hybrid role..starter/reliever and only pitched in less than 50 innings….and after he was on the shelf in June when he came back he did not start another game….19 games and did not go beyond two innings in any and never more than 40 pitches in a game…..something is awry.
      My guess his shoulder has been effecting his strength and durability.

  19. Semi-stunned they didn’t add Erik Miller. LHRPs are very popular in the rule 5 draft. Maybe he’s suffering from some kind of arm/shoulder injury they haven’t made public, and are confident he won’t get picked. IDK.
    Wouldn’t be surprised if they have their sights set on a certain unprotected pitcher available in the rule 5. Could be a guy from the Padres (Preston Mattingly), the Marlins (Preston’s dad/former Miami Mgr Don), the BoSox (Dombrowski), the Rays (Ani Kilambi), or Yankees (Brian Barber).

    1. I agree that leaving so many fairly high upside minor leaguers unprotected is because they believe they are likely to snag someone valuable in the Rule 40 draft, although it’s worth noting that they certainly cannot rely on that as they are picking very far down in the draft. This is where I feel I need to trust DD and Mattingly.

  20. Miller not being protected suggests to me he’s not healthy. I’ll be curious to see if he gets selected. If so, he may still get offered back ultimately.
    Muzzioti is still on the 40 because he’s really good. He’s missed a lot of time but was just starting to hit last year when he got hurt. I think he’s a starting CF caliber lead off hitter once (if) he gets his health back and gets a full season of at bats. Rojas may pass him by but he hasn’t yet. Both are very raw and will by LHV OFs ready for an injury call up next year. Hopefully De La Cruz doesn’t get selected and will be in LHV with them.

  21. Just noticed former Brewer/current Ranger LHP prospect Antoine Kelly was left unprotected. He’d be my #1 target in the rule 5 if Dave Dombrowski plans to participate.

    1. Romus- I think I saw somewhere his K rate has been elevated in the past and was around 30% in 2022. He was also moved from 3B to OF. On the Guardians striking out doesn’t get you into the lineup. Just sayin’…..that might be why he was moved ??

      1. Yeah that could be a very good reason, Guardians have to win around the margins since the $$$ is not there for superstar players…Brito walks just as much as he Ks it appears.

        1. Brito the kid they go in return is a pretty good player in his own right. High contact guy switch hitter. In fact many say he reminds them of Ramirez just not as good defensively.

  22. See, Romus, I can always count on a name from Hinkie! I will now check out Antoine Kelly. LHP prospect are always worth a shot.

    1. matt……no need to check…..great stuff-no control.
      I know they made the bases bigger….but the home plate still stays the same size.

      1. But that’s what the rule 5 is (mostly) about. You seek a flawed, high ceiling prospect, and see if you’re able to help unlock something. If his BB% was great, he wouldn’t be available. If the Phillies aren’t able to fix him, they send him back to Texas. No harm, no foul.

  23. Guys I am amazed how you all know so much on the Phillies prospects. I get no info on that stuff here in Indiana. Always look forward to seeing who IYO is rising, flattening out or falling down in your estimations in the system. Seems several are surprised at the Rule 5 guys being made available. I guess we will wait and see.

    Also, it seems every time I take a look at MLB they have a caption that someone many here have mentioned has signed so far back with their original team. That is surprising to me. Like some have said teams must be overpaying to keep their guys.

    Keep up the good work. I am always amazed at the things Romus finds and posts.
    The other day he had the past 5 years or so of Eovaldi’s velo. Where does he find that stuff. LOL

    1. Don…LOL.
      I will give you a secret….but you must never reveal it to anyone….not even to the FBI or CIA.
      On the right side margins…Jim has category called ‘Resources”…plenty of info in each .

      2. Resources
      Baseball America
      Baseball Prospectus
      Baseball Reference
      Brooks Baseball
      Cot’s Baseball Contracts
      Gkita Phillies Videos
      MLB Trade Rumors
      Phuture Phillies Videos

      1. Romus…I knew you could not be that informed. LOL. I will not say a word about this info. Top secret. BTW I get Baseball America. I always read through it and then give it to my grandson to read. So, you are basically saying that all of you cheat even Hinkie with his info? LOL

        BTW here is something I would like to know. How do you guys post websites, pics and videos? I can type in the info and that is about it. Hinkie is great with the videos. Thanks.

  24. Hope you are all doing well. Still come on here from time to time to check on prospect info. Rule 5 will we gain, will we loose, will it move the needle. Place your bets.
    Surprisingly great playoffs! Go Phillies!!

  25. Romus…I just looked. I do not think I have ever scrolled that far down the page to see the Resource info before. I am almost always looking at the current posts. Thanks for letting me know. Now I can maybe be smart like you. LOL.

  26. Interesting MLB trade: Toescar Hernandez who is a 2.5 WAR corner OF for Erik Swanson (an elite relief pitcher) and a prospect who seems to comp to Griff McGarry. Maybe not Griff’s ceiling. But a really good pitching prospect with an elite K rate and some arm issues.

    Interesting to look at as a comp when considering deals.

    1. Talked to my buddy, the Blue Jays fan, about this and he said it was an obvious decision for the Jays. The Jays, who are cost conscious, were not going to give $14M to Teoscar for arbitration and they certainly weren’t going to extend him after 2023. Not only that, the Jays are too RH heavy in the lineup and are looking for a cheaper LH OF option.

      1. Perhaps Jays will look to Nimmo for CF and move Springer to a corner…..will not be cheaper however with Nimmo.

        1. I think that it is a really interesting comp for a potential Rhys trade, which seems unlikely following DD’s comments. But for giggles…would you do that deal for Rhys? An elite RP and a very good pitching prospect for Rhys?

          I would do that in a second personally. But I also believe that Schwarber or Casty can learn to play 1B pretty easily this offseason.

  27. See that Harper is opting for surgery on his elbow next week. Don’t know if it’s full TJ surgery or something lesser but expect his 2023 season to be delayed.

    1. I’m glad he’s doing that although I wish he had done it within a week or so after the season ended.

      1. He will likely aim for May but he may be more of a July return. He may as well be considered an addition to the lineup at the trade deadline. Harper may not even play outfield at all next year as throwing usually take 12 months +/-

        1. I look at two guys in the past…..Hoskins and Knapp.
          Rhys’ TJ on his left elbow was in Oct 2020 and was ready to hit by the
          opening of the 2021 season…he was projected 4-6 months after his surgery
          Andrew Knapp had his TJ on his throwing arm in Oct 2013…..and was DHing the first week of May in 2014.
          UCL tears are all different, so after the surgery the Dr. will give his prognosis.
          I was hoping by May sometime for Harper…..but it could be June or even July, depending on what they find in his arm.

  28. At this late date I am sure you are correct there 3up.
    Romus…now is the time to get your Phillies gear. Lots of items marked way down.
    Jerseys reduced greatly. I got a couple hats that now are like 60% off. Now $17.
    We never found the Schwarber jersey that would fit the grandson. I now like the idea of him getting one with his name on the back. Those are marked down as well. I will have to ask.

    1. You can get a marked down Phillies WS Champs gear in some 3rd world country and / or West Virginia.

      1. That is funny Bob. I am sure there are plenty. I told my wife they always make two sets of gear. Poor West Virginia.

      1. Harper will have surgery next Wednesday. Not sure yet if it will be TJ, or the type Rhys Hoskins had a couple of years ago. In any event, he’ll miss time next season.
        He was complimentary of Darick Hall, but I got the impression Hall isn’t going to get the bulk of Harper’s ABs this time around.
        Also said they were in the MIF market.
        Was frank about Castellanos’s offensive struggles. Thinks it could have been a combination of things (new team/signed late/new baby/down year), but says he still drove the ball to all fields in batting practice, and anticipates a better 2023.
        Team likes Zach Efflin. It’s a financial situation. The Phillies have a price. Will another team over pay?
        Was asked about a Nola extension. Would only say the team likes Aaron a lot. I took that to mean they’re working on something with him.

    1. I wouldn’t assume that. Might take the opportunity to have Castellanos DH and use combination of Vierling/Maton in RF instead.

      1. If Hall makes team he will likely platoon with Castellanos at DH and give Hoskins a day off at times at 1B. Days Hall is DH’ing Castellanos will likely be in RF.

  29. Hinkie, What a contrast to MacPhail, unbelievable! I heard the press conference, and it seems they will not know until the Dr. goes in to find out if it’s full TJ surgery. And, they have internal options to fill in at DH and in the OF until he gets back, whenever that is. Of course, confident Castellanos bounces back. Thinks our market had zero impact on his less than hoped for season. Other takeaways, I feel pretty good about getting a SS. Of course he issued the disclaimer that if numbers get crazy, or if 2 sides don’t agree, they need Plan B, but I feel pretty confident. Also, they will add another SP, of the Eflin variety, not at the TOR, and are saving 1 spot for a young SP, naming Falter and Sanchez along with the 3 Amigos, with opportunities to win the job.. And, a BP arm or 2. Finally, Sam Fuld had the Hoskins question directed to him. “how would you describe the season Rhys had?” And, Fuld said he had a good one, worked hard at keeping those valleys to as short a period of time as he could. Still has the ability to carry a team for stretches. Overall, he had a good season, he is an integral part of the lineup. 30 HRs don’t grow on trees. He is not a GG 1B. And, what I found most telling was Fuld saying he is a core piece, with a value to the team, the Clubhouse, the organization, even greater than his on field production. He mentioned his relationship with his teammates, and the staff of the Organization. I don’t think he is going anywhere.

      1. Not sure Jean Segura will be….thought I heard Dave D said they will sign one middle infielder, assume that is the one Harper likes.

    1. I told everyone he would be back. It’s amazing that surprises people. Even if you think he can be replaced, they cannot replace his offense internally (as I’ve said before, you don’t “replace” him by moving another starter to first, that just creates a new hole at a different position), so he’s staying put for another year and they will need the power early in the year with Harper most likely out. 2024 is entirely different – I doubt they give him the big FA contract he wants, but we will see.

      1. He is Hoskins.

        Odds are extremely low Segura comes back. They are seriously trying to upgrade that position. If you’re going to spend money, better to spend a a chunk more and get an impact player. Jean is okay, but he’s no impact player. And, like Didi, his performance could fall off a cliff at any time.

      2. Don’t think him returning is a surprise. Just a missed opportunity to improve the overall team defense and better allocate the $$$

        1. Exactly…..it was about his arb dollars of probably $13/14M AAV, being utilized on another portion of the roster make-up.

          1. So, if they want to wheel and deal……what is Sam going to say……he can’t catch a cold……….doesn’t hit in the clutch at crunch or WS time…….etc.! No, he’s going to say all the positive things………well we hate to lose him, but shoot us an offer!

    2. Matt, ………….that’s what I keep telling everyone it isn’t that easy to hit 37 homeruns in a year…..as you sid they don’t grow on trees!

  30. I say we move on from Hoskins and sign Jose Abreu for 2/$40M. He’s just a better player. I also got the feeling that depending on harpers timeline, we are not going have Castellanos and Vierling out there for four months while Harper rehabs. I would love to see a “prove-it” one year deal on conforto. He’d be decent enough in RF, and then that would push Schwarber and Castellanos into a LF/DH platoon. Plus we add Turner. Then look for pitching.

    Hoskins money goes to conforto.
    We add Abreu and Turner for $20M and $30M, respectively. That’s $50M added of the potential $65-$85M we can spend. (I assume we go up to the second tier luxury bracket, but not over).


    Plus we have up to $35M for a starter and bullpen.

    1. Sounds like a plan worth pursuing……I had forgot about Conforto perhaps looking for a pillow contract to re=establish himself.
      As far as Rhys’….if the Giants would bite……I’d ask for prospects LHP Whisenhunt and RHP Black in exchange.

      1. If we’re looking for potential trade fits, the Astros need a 1B and their supposed main target (Rizzo) re-upped with the Yankees. And they definitely have enough arms to part with one or two in a trade.

        Would they be willing to after seeing one of his slumps up close? I’m not sure.

        1. Yes…that was v1’s suggestion a few weeks ago……perhaps they would budge on RHP Luis Garcia…Phillies kill two birds with one stone….a starter and also frees up more money.

        2. I think the Astro’s are now likely to land Abreu. I’ve seen a beat writer float a 2/$40 million deal for him.

          I floated us going after Abreu a week ago and Catch came up up with a 2/$36.

          But again if they are committed to Rhys and the chemistry he brings to the clubhouse that deal isn’t likely to happen.

          1. Fuld said all the right things about Rhys, which have absolutely NO bearing on whether they trade him or not. I’m not insisting that they will. But interpreting a baseball executive’s lauds over a player in their organization is pointless.

            I can see Abreu signing with Houston. As for Hoskins, Harper’s uncertain status for 2023 puts a pause on any trades of bats unless an impact bat is coming…

            1. mark…agree. rarely will negative overtures be levied on a player by management…especially when it comes to the possibility of a future trade value.
              Even Hoskins’ defense was applauded by Dave….’his metrics in the regular season were quite good’ or something that effect. And he was corret in that regard….BUT the play-offs really spelled out Hoskin’s defensive reputation for the world to see…and that will be hard to break now, no matter what his 2022 reg. season metrics were.

    1. Sandy A. with the CY Young….looking back, I am sure a ‘wish to do over’ by Cardinal fans.
      Then there were the Josh Fields for Yordan Alvarez trade between Dodgers’ Friedman and the Astros’ Jeff Luhnow in 2016
      Then there was the James Shields for Tatis trade between Pads and WSox.

      Trades that haunt.

      1. Way back in the day I think Smoltz was in the trade with the Tigers for Doyle Alexander. That did not work out so well either.

        1. Yep….the MLB historical landscape is filled with a lot of manured trades for one team or another along the way.

    2. In hindsight that was a very bad trade for the red birds LOL. And up to that point the Marlins hadn’t hit on many of their MLB players for prospect trades.

      It could be just my perception but DD’s history in trades tends to be he likes to trade prospects for proven MLB players. And He’s typically done pretty well on those.

      1. But Dave D. just not 100% perfecto……. first-year Expos GM, traded Randy Johnson, to the Mariners in ’89 for LHP Mark Langston….or Eugenio Suarez deal in 2014….. sent Suarez to the Reds for Alfredo Simon.
        So he has a few hic-cups along the way….but overall he has done well in the trade dept.

      2. When it comes to players and LTCs…..Dave has taken the chance .
        …David Price (7 yrs, $217M)
        …Nate Eovaldi (4 yrs, $68M)
        …Miguel Cabrera ext thru age 40 (8 years, $248M)
        ……….but in all fairness, most GMs get bit by this when they go long term beyound the 4 or 5 year mark with 29 or 30 year old players.

        1. Romus, how about Dombrowski dunking into Boston’s free agent pool and picking up Bogaerts and Eovaldi? Payroll wise, these might allow other impact additions to be more feasible. Bogey 6/$162M, Eovaldi 3/$40M…leaves room for more.

          1. mark…..he has many avenues to go down…and I imagine that is one of them.
            I do think it will be between Bogaerts and Turner for the shortstop.

        2. Romus I’m neither praising nor criticizing DD for any of his moves or extensions. Like you said in this game if you’re lucky to be around long enough as a GM you are going to be lucky to be about 50% in all of your moves.

          Not to mention there is so much that goes on behind the scenes that we never know. Owners influence can rain big time on some of these extensions or even FA signings.

          And for trades sometimes an org just wants to get rig of a guy for reasons unknown.

  31. Very few of these high dollar deals work out in the LONG term. I am sure there will be some years on the Harper deal that all will wonder how soon it ends. But that is the only way to get the guys to sign. Going farther than they will be productive.
    I was wondering last night since many of the BP guys are going back to last year’s team who do you guys think the Phillies might try to retain from that group? I do not put Eflin in that group.

  32. I know the DD and Eovaldi connection, but I am thinking that the SP they try for will be one without a QO, like Quintana. Just my opinion, based on nothing except DD’s repeating that they want to be good for a while, so giving up 2 picks may not be ideal. Don, how about our buddy, LA, for Jeff Bagwell?

  33. David Robertson? And, Romus, wasn’t Alfredo Simon one of those 2 name guys, like Joey becoming Albert Belle?

    1. matt……yes…..Alfredo Simón (Cabrera), but known as The Big Pasta
      ……however, I do not think he was ever a ‘Fredo’.

  34. If Romus would get to work on those Resources, I am sure over the last 50 years he can find many trades that turned out very one sided for one of the teams. LOL Might have to go back about 100 for Babe Ruth trade.
    Robertson is really the only one I would be very interested in bringing back. He is not as good as he was a few years ago. I do agree they need another hard throwing LHP so they do not have to use Alvarado so early in games.

    1. Don53 – I actually could see Efflin coming back. Why ? Even if he presents a problem being a starter for only 100 innings or less – we know now, he can be a very effective reliever (long or short – meaning 2 innings for long). I think other teams will see him as a cheap # 3/4 ( 10-13 mm) starter and that is the competition. I believe mgmt likes him but doesn’t want to pay him like a 3 or 4 starter. Meanwhile, I suspect powers to be now realize to compete in the playoffs your starters shouldn’t pitch any more than 150- 160 innings so they are strong. (See Rocco comments about paying Verlander 40 mil to pitch in only 150 innings above). In truth that pitching program might fall right into the Phillies lap if they had an Efflin, Nola, Wheels, Ranger, Painter, Falter staff. Go to a 6 man staff at least – that way the young pitchers don’t exceed their 110+ innings and you keep the top starters down to 140 innings. ?? The expanded playoffs may change pitching forever – because you have to be able to manage a max 21 extra season games, or a 183 game season once in the WS.

      Notwithstanding the above, I still think they add another starting pitcher, even if they added Efflin.

  35. i am really confused, watching mlb channel, Yesterday talking about Rizzio, if he plays 125 games that’s great, we want him for October, when he is good, Verlander for over 40 million, if he gives us 125 innings that’s great, need him for playoffs, so now we pay all that money, its like going to sixers games, not knowing if embid is playing or if a Rizzio is playing, or if Verlander is skipping his turn, Sports has really passed me by, Thats why i told my wife who will retire in next couple of yrs, that i don’t care about cable, I am watching less and less,

  36. I was a little disappointed no one asked Dombrowski/Fuld anything about their 40-man decisions at yesterday’s presser. Destiny Luargo did ask if there were any other pitching prospects (other than Painter/Abel/McGarry) who could help the club next season. Fuld mentioned McKinley Moore, Andrew Schultz, and Erik Miller (in that order) as candidates to throw out of the Phillies BP in 2023. I have a hard time envisioning another team not picking Miller in next month’s rule 5 draft. It is just a head-scratcher that they would rather leave three open roster spots than add Miller. Or that they value any of Vinny Nittoli/Tayler Scott/Luis Ortiz more than Miller.

    Speaking of the Rule 5 … here are the Hinkie top 3 Phillies’ targets (if DD plans to participate):

    1️⃣ Antoine Kelly Rangers LHP … 2 plus pitches (FB & SL) from a funky angle. Needs to throw more strikes.

    2️⃣ MD Johnson Marlins RHP … added mucho velo at DBU, and became a helluva senior sign for Miami in the 6th round of the draft.

    3️⃣ Aaron Schunk Rockies 3Bman … I was a huge fan while he was at Univ of Georgia. I wanted the Phillies to draft him, but (once again) the team had forfeited it’s second round pick.

    ✳ Other Players Of Note:

    ◾ Logan Davidson A’s SS … is a former day 3 Phillies draft pick (by Johnny Almaraz, not Brian Barber) who went to Clemson & ended up a 1st round pick three years later. He’s a switch hitter w/power (from each side of the dish), but has a history of too many Ks.
    ◾ T.J. Sikkema Royals LHP … is a former Yankees 1st round pick out of Missouri (where he teamed with Michael Plassmeyer). Was both a starter and a closer in college.

    1. Hinkie…..”I wanted the Phillies to draft him, but (once again) the team had forfeited it’s second round pick.”….better get use to it….seems to be their modus operandi going forward each year now.

      Just hope Dave D makes some trades with small market teams for their Competitive Balance picks in either round A or B.

    2. Come on, Hinkie. They forfeited their 2019 second-round pick for Bryce Harper. You make it sound like they just tossed it away instead of drafting the guy you wanted.

      1. LOL. Not saying Harper wasn’t worth the draft pick. Just making the point that no team has had less draft picks than the Phillies over the last 5 years.

  37. I don’t understand, either about Miller. Romus thought maybe he’s injured? But, with 3 open spots, why not protect him? If we need space for a FA, make a move then. But, Miller, especially, I thought had a chance to pitch up here in 2023, and then Fuld mentions him. Why wouldn’t an A’s team or a Pirates team not grab him? I think the rules are that to participate in the Rule V, you need open roster spots, but we are not picking 3. With FAs, you can sign someone, and then create a roster spot. At least, that is my understanding.

    1. matt……the last two years he has pitched less than 70 innings total….maybe they feel another club will see that as red-flag stuff and avoid selecting him.
      A pitcher at 25-years old and has not debut in the majors yet, once on the 40 and now not, may be another reason for teams to back off.

  38. Phillies need to think outside the box for relief help. To get a good quality reliever they should look towards teams like the Royals. They could with the right package pry away Scott Barlow (4.030): $4.9MM, 7-4 24saves, 2.18 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 74Inn, 22BB, 77SO and maybe pair him with Taylor Clarke (3.120): $1.5MM 3-1 3 Saves, 4.04ERA 1.18 WHIP, 49Inn, 8BB, 48SO. May have to trade Bailey Falter, Francisco Morales, Alexis Azuaje, and maybe another prospect arm to get it done. But to add a top RP a trade is likely this offseason. Look for teams rebuilding and pitchers who are close to 30 or in Arb years getting pricey.

  39. This beats all…Mets/Yankees Investigated…Collusion over Aaron Judge:
    MLB has opened an investigation into both the Mets and Yankees relating to possible illegal communication between the teams about free agent Aaron Judge, sources told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic……….The comments in question were made by anonymous sources from the Mets organization and published in an article on SportsNet New York on Nov. 3. SNY is the Mets’ television broadcaster and is owned by the team……….In the SNY article, the sources told Andy Martino that the Mets have no plans to enter a bidding war with the Yankees for Judge because owners Steve Cohen and Hal Steinbrenner have a “mutually respectful relationship.” A bidding war between the two New York teams for one of the city’s most popular athletes might threaten that relationship, the sources said……….These comments drew the ire of the MLB Players Association as a possible indicator of improper communication between the Mets and Yankees, Rosenthal reports. The MLBPA asked the league to open an investigation into whether this violated the collective bargaining agreement……
    MLB’s CBA prohibits teams from sharing information on player contracts with one another, which could constitute a form of collusion………..The MLBPA could file a grievance against both the Mets and Yankees, but they would then have to prove that Judge was harmed by the comments being leaked, according to Rosenthal.

    1. If true goes to show very rich people live in a weird world unto themselves that causes them to believe they are not beholden to certain rules.

      And I have nothing against very rich people

      I guess the question is what would be the penalty for such an infraction?

      1. The problem is the rich people who essentially own the decision makers (ie owners-commissioner)…they are without restraint beyond public perception. In this case, whoever got wind and made it known to the union can only hope it goes anywhere other than a slap on the wrist or drop in the bucket fine. This story likely turns out to be a whole lot of nothing because those in control won’t let it become more. Sounding more and more familiar these days.

        1. It is hard for me to see this as collusion….MLBPA overreaches IMO.
          If an owner comes out and says we will not go over this amount because of budgetary restrictions….is that collusion.

          1. No, because that statement is not about nor does it harm an individual player.

            The potential for collusion arises when statements by (or agreements between) owners can affect the market of a particular player, in this case, Judge.

            Although, for the life of me I don’t know how you calculate any damage to a contract as high as his might be.

  40. I saw that today, Romus. I just saw on computer where some think Phillies will be one of favorites for Verlander. That will make Hinkie happy if true. Article says he would be big help to Phillies young pitchers. I am guessing the ones still in minors.

    1. So many hack click bait articles out there this time of year.

      Remember when you click to read one of those articles the advertisers in the scroll on the side are charged an impression fee which is very minimal say half a penny to a nickel in some cases.

      Now if you were to see and click on one of those ads that is a little higher can be as much as 25 cents.

  41. Had I been in charge of the 2016 draft I would have selected Kyle Lewis with the #1 pick. He ultimately went 11th to the Mariners.

    Well his time in Seattle has come to an end as they traded him to the D-Backs for a back-up catching prospect who is 28 years old.

    1. Actual date? Not sure. But I think it’ll be determined by which FA SS signs first…
      1 Swanson – before winter meetings, either back to Atlanta or Cubs, then…
      2 Bogaerts – LAD or SFG
      3 Turner – Phillies
      4 Correa – NYY

  42. As for SS I see 2 scenarios:
    Plan A: sign Turner and mid rotation SP
    Plan B: sign Bogaerts and a top of rotation SP

    As for bull pen I believe to get a back end bullpen arm(s) they need to trade with a team in rebuild for a RP who is only a year or two from free agency and in later 20’s to early 30’s. Free Agency has several good RP but none that are like ‘wow’

    1. Bob, Your plan b is my plan A. I think Boegarts is a better overall player offensively and defensively. Even his sb % is similar.

      I don’t know if Sale is available but I don’t think Boston would part with sale except for a few of the very top prospects and $$ or perhaps Suarez. But he would be a better bargain than what Verlander is reportedly wanting.

  43. Speculation today on whether the Dodgers non-tender Cody Bellinger in his final arb year before tonight’s deadline. If they don’t, despite his offensive woes the past 2 seasons, would anyone find him a worthy pursuit (naturally for a much lesser price) in light of current Phillies roster uncertainties (ie Harper’s recovery period, is Marsh a true CF option moving forward, will Hoskins get traded – the versatile CB can also play 1b,
    etc). A Bellinger free agency would be quite interesting to follow…

    1. Ya really can’t get to excited about free agency anymore. All the rumours for three months and really dues not get going until spring training anymore.

      Mark 8:29 – I say Everything!

    2. mark … I’ve suggested Bellinger as a non-tender candidate last season. But they’re in a different spot now. They’ve added Marsh, Schwarber, and Castellanos since then. I’m also pretty sure they’d be looking for more contact, and less swing-and-miss if they were to bring in a bat this offseason.

      The guy I’d monitor as a non-tender candidate is Alex Reyes. He didn’t throw at all in 2022 because of shoulder surgery. But the market for closers/late inning relievers is so desperate, I think a club (maybe the Phillies) take a flier on him. He’s scheduled to become a FA after next season so maybe Dombrowski offers him a two year deal w/an opt out after year one.

      1. BTW … Reyes is represented by the same agency (CAA) as Trea Turner. Could be an opportunity to one stop shop for Dave Dombrowski and Sam Fuld this winter.

  44. Regarding a Nick Castellanos trade, I would explore a deal with Miami (24 miles from his hometown of Davie FL) which reportedly had interest in him last winter. LHP Trevor Rogers may (or may not) regain his all star form of 2021, and minor league prospect LHP Jake Eder is recovering from TJ surgery. Both might be included as principles if the Phillies added $20M ($5/yr for each of the remaining 4 years on his contract). Feel free to expand the trade if necessary…

    1. Mark8:29 – I agree with you on Castellanos and had proposed a deal for one of the bullpen pitchers (Hernandez) Marlins traded today to the Mets. Miami wanted him last year and he lives there so it is a good match – despite his off year. Would love to rework that deal for Rogers as he was injured alot in ’22, which may or may not have effected his performance. He is controlled for 4 years more too.

      Don’t much care for Bellinger even though he is a ++ good fielder. But your idea was a novel one – 1B and CF. I think Phillies will stick with Marsh to see if he can make it for sure – even at that, he is apt to share position with Rojas.

      1. Agree that if there is a team that “might” have interest in Castellanos, it is Miami. However, there is almost no chance Ng would give up Trevor Rogers for Castellanos (even if the Phillies ate half of his money). In fact, DD would probably have to include a mid level prospect in a Castellanos swap. In the end, it’s probably better to just hold on to Nick and hope for a return to some semblance of normalcy from him at the plate. Just my opinion.

        1. Hinkie – I agree with you – I wasn’t proposing a straight up deal but rather one that would have to include Nick + likely, 1-2 other players and also some cash. I also think Nick will have a better ’23 but I just wonder if he burned a bridge or two this year ? ergo, they move him for that reason alone. If they do, that would, in my opinion, not be a DD move – he doesn’t undo acquisitions that fast. I can almost hear him saying in that patient measured manner, “no Nick will be fine, we are looking for him to have his usual hard hitting ’23.” But if he did rankle the powers….he could be had.

        2. Unless Nick asks for a trade…seems wife and mother could persuade him to do just that after the WS events at the park.

        3. By now, Dombrowski and Fuld have made the rounds to better understand what players on the Phillies the other clubs would want in a potential trade. I can almost guarantee that any potential match for Castellanos this offseason would need to include a bad contract in return. That is how much damage Castellanos has done to his value.

          Using the Marlins as an example, discussions would not really even begin unless Avisail Garcia was part of the return package, as the Marlins naturally would want to undo one of their bad signings at the same time. Given the difference in contractual value, the Phillies would have to thrown in significant dollars. Then, add a prospect.

          I think Dave and Sam have reached the same conclusion that many of us have as well – trading bad contracts rarely helps and they’re better off keeping Castellanos in the hopes he returns to form to 1) help the Phillies next season and 2) repairs his value. Rogers wouldn’t even be mentioned in the same trade unless the Phillies also included a player with substantial value in return.

  45. Castellanos has negative trade value. Not even a “mid-level” prospect would be enough for a team to take him on. A strict, DH who doesn’t walk, and doesn’t hit for power, and isn’t a contact/high average/Jeff McNeil type. Oh!!!! and he makes $20M a year for the next 4 years.

    Unfortunately, you have to hold him and hope he gets back to .280 average, 15-20 homers and 40 doubles.

    1. Yes, Castellanos with his contract has NEGATIVE VALUE. His contact is a burden. You don’t get value for negative value. You either hold on and hope the guy turns it around or you literally pay money for someone to take the contract and player off your hands. Maybe If they agreed to pay $15 million per year of his deal they would get a mid-level prospect but the underlying theory of value remains the same.

  46. I agree, Andrew, and I expected even more than that when we signed him, but I will be grateful for that now. I don’t think they are going to trade him. I have been looking at the various BP options, and Bob D., the other day, mentioned a trade. Hinkie wanted Alvarado when DD got here, and he delivered. Is there another Alvarado out there. I don’t know too much about the guys Bob mentioned from KC.

    1. Nahhhhhh…………….I’d rather have Nick and I really don’t want him. We don’t need another K machine, we alread have too many of them.

  47. Almost every time the Phillies faced Erik Fedde, they roughed him up. But, you know, I could see the team taking a flier on him. He just my be able to turn the corner with a different staff and a different environment.

        1. Romus … LOL. You’d think I was the author. Nimmo is my favorite non-Phillie in MLB. I’ve been telling everyone Verlander should be Dombrowski’s priority on a short term/high AAV contract. And I’ve mentioned Eovaldi as the backup plan to Verlander.

          And … BTW … I mentioned Alex Reyes as a non-tender candidate to keep an eye on earlier today (above). It happened. St. Louis is going to pass on arb3. He’s coming off shoulder surgery, but if I’m Dave Dombrowski, I’d make him a two year offer with an opt out after year 1 (as long as the club’s doctors believe his rehab looks promising). Dont know how far into next season it will be until he returns to a mound, but the demand for closers/late inning relievers far outpaces the supply this offseason.

    1. This article led me to several others regarding pitchers who modified their cutters. The first one shows how Lance McCullers changed his cutter, with videos comparing his 2017 version to his 2018 version. The second article pertains to an RP whom the Red Sox left unprotected, Thad Ward, who came back late in 2022 from TJS (related article discusses how he struck out Albies in 2021 spring training). The Red Sox worked on Ward’s cutter, successfully making it break back sharply like McCullers’s cutter. For those of you who have seen our minor RP prospects, are there any who to date have used a sinking cutter that – with the right instruction from our pitching coaches (a stretch, I know) – might be candidates for utilizing the McCullers-type cutter? Since we now have several RP candidates whose fastballs sit at 95+ mph, this type of experiment might shorten the path to our bullpen for one of our hard-throwing youngsters.


      1. Have to assume with Nola utilizing the 2Smr like that, the thought it is offered to pitchers thru the system. Just not sure all pitchers can master it

  48. Casty co led the league with . 1000 fielding pct. though his range was just avg.

    His . 694 ops was 100 pts lower than his previous low as an adult (meaning excluding his first 2 mlb seasons.). I look for him to bounce back to better offensive production. I think however I’d encourage him to put 20 lbs of weight lifting muscle in his upper body, and somehow have a better 2 strike approach to reduce strikeouts.

  49. Early word are that the pitchers are asking for the moon. Rodon wants $35M per year, deGrom $40M, Verlander $40M. There’s no talk about years either, although I hear Verlander wants Scherzer money (or more). We’re obviously stuck with Castellanos’ contract, but crazy money to older (and injury prone) pitchers will more likely end badly for the team. I’ve said it before, the Nats should have let Strasburg walk but instead gave him 7 years, $245M in 2020 at age 30/31. He’s made 8 total starts in 3 years (-0.5 WAR)! I wonder if Boras has any remorse about getting this type of deal for Strasburg. Probably not.

    1. Nats and Angels with some pretty bad LTC on aging/injury prone stars over the last half-dozen years,
      ……coincidence or irony…. owners decided to put both clubs now for sale.

      1. You are right…………you can buy super stars………….but you can’t buy chemistry or karma.

        1. Skeet…see that a little in the Phillies team make-up, of the four free agent signings of 30-year old veteran star styles of leadership…Harper, JTR, Schwarber and Castellanos.
          Each has their own distinctive behavioral style.
          As everyday players they hold a special weight in leading the team and the youngsters like Bohm, Stott, Marsh, Maton, Veirling et al.
          Apparently Schwarber seems to be the one who has that tighter connection to many of the youngsters. .

  50. Romus, credit to DD. I knew Schwarber had won a WS before, but I didn’t know how much of a Clubhouse guy he was. Dombrowski mentioned that often about him, and was clearly correct. With Castellanos, I was one who thought he was a good signing. He had always hit, and not just 25 plus HRs was expected, but also a lot of 2Bs. We got none of that, and I don’t understand why he looked so awkward and off balance all season long. It wasn’t the first time Pitchers threw him sliders, and he never adjusted, and can’t stop swinging no matter how far the pitches missed the plate. Aside from eyesight, and needing new contacts, or contacts for the first time, I don’t know how that happens.

  51. Good stuff, v1. “At least plus plus speed”, I guess he is plenty fast! Also, an excellent Defensive CF. Why would we not want to worry more about his OBP, and getting the ball in play than we would “tapping into some power” that he might have?

    1. Power helps with OBP. If pitchers don’t have to respect the possibility of an extra base hit, there’s no reason not to pound the zone. We saw it with Ben Revere; excellent hitter, but no power so was overall below average on offense with basically no walks.

      1. Dan K…I do think Rojas will generate enough power to keep the pitcher’s honest…he swings aggressively hard with a pretty large bat also. At least what I have seen from him so far.

  52. Whether the Phillies sign Turner or not depends solely on his market. If teams like the Cubs jack up his command price, say $300M+, then Bogaerts seems the more attractive option in my eyes. Cheaper in money and years, flexible to play 3b if and when Bohm moves to 1b. And Dombrowski can’t let the SS market come to him because it might not. I would offer Turner (if he’s plan A) 8/$280M (that’s $35M AAV). Then I turn to the X-man and offer 6/$180M ($30M AAV). And soon before all the big fish get hooked.

  53. I can see the Mets (with reported interest) signing Verlander if deGrom moves on. If Rodon is asking $35M per, then I’d wait to see if the number drops to $30M and offer 4 years with an option year. Unless DD is confident that he can extend Nola, I would jump on signing a TOR, preferably beyond 2 years, to sure up a rotation which should be strong for several years, especially when Wheeler’s deal is up after ’24. Otherwise, Dombrowski may have to go the trade route and lose some prospects, which all here are loathe to do.

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