Weekly Discussion (11/20/22)

The baseball offseason continues.  Rumors abound but big name free agents haven’t begun switching teams. The biggest stories so far are the big contracts relievers are getting to re-sign with their former teams and who’s not being tendered a contract.


News

Bryce Harper will have surgery on his injured arm.  He could be back in a DH role before the All Star break.  I remember Andrew Knapp’s similar surgery on his throwing arm.  He DH-ed for the Class High-A Clearwater Threshers for a month.  He was terrible.  He played almost 30 games before hitting his first HR.  He was returned to the Class-A Lakewood BlueClaws the next day and was behind the plate soon after.


Hot Stove

The Phillies added CF Johan Rojas to their 40-man roster.  He was the only addition and brought their total to 37 players on their roster.

The Phillies reached a contract agreement with RHP Sam Coonrod.  The parties are reported to have agreed on a $775,000 contract.  Coonrod missed most of the 2022 season with a shoulder strain.  He gave up eleven runs in seven September appearances, was optioned on September 21st, and was not considered for any post-season rosters.

Five other arbitration-eligible players were tendered contracts – Rhys Hoskins ($12.6M/$11M), José Alvarado ($3.2M/$3.5M), Ranger Suárez ($3.5M/$2.6M), Seranthony Domínguez ($2M/$2.25M), and Edmundo Sosa ($1M/$1.25M).  (MLBTR/Cot’s)

Coonrod’s salary is guaranteed this year due to a new agreement within the new CBA.  Prior to the new agreement, players who reached an agreement on a contract without going to arbitration could be released during spring training and only receive a portion of their agreed upon contract.  If released before the season starts, players like Coonrod who avoided arbitration will receive their full salary.


Prospects

Remember, fans tend to value their prospects higher than others.  Don’t be upset that more prospects weren’t added to the 40-man roster.  If they had warranted protection, they would have been protected.

You don’t just put a player on the roster because there is a vacant spot.  That actually reduces the value of a marginal prospect.  It limits the team’s ability to trade that player because the other team has to have an open spot on their roster or move a player off to make room.

The Phillies shopped prospects t the trade deadline.  The ones in which other teams had an interest were traded (and two were added to their teams’ 40-man rosters – O’Hoppe and Brown).  The players the Phillies did not protect this week drew no interest at the deadline, zip, zero, nada.  The Phillies are banking on that lack of interest continuing.


Key Dates

The Phillies submitted their 40-man roster this week.

The Phillies tendered contracts to their remaining arbitration-eligible players.

The Phillies had no qualifying offers outstanding.

The next major key dates are the Winter Meetings and the Rule 5 Draft.

  • November 15, 2022: Deadline to submit 40-man rosters before the Rule 5 Draft.
  • November 18, 2022: Non-tender Deadline – The last day for teams to offer 2023 contracts to arb eligible players.  Non-tendered players become free agents.
  • November 20, 2022: Deadline for free agents to accept qualifying offers.
  • December 4-7, 2022: The 2022 Winter Meetings will take place in San Diego.
    • December 7, 2022: Rule 5 Draft
  • December 15, 2022: Close of the 2021-2022 international signing period.
  • January 13, 2023: Deadline for teams and players to submit salary figures for arbitration.
  • January 15, 2023: Opening of the 2022-2023 international signing period.
  • February 25, 2023: Phillies First Spring Training Game (split squad)
  • March 30, 2023: Season Opener at Texas Rangers
  • April 6, 2023: Home Opener v. Cincinnati Reds
  • July 2023: Rule 4 Amateur Draft
  • December 15, 2023: Close of the 2022-2023 international signing period.

Transactions

11/16/2022 – C John Hicks assigned to Reading
11/16/2022 – Phillies signed free agent C John Hicks to a minor league contract
11/15/2022 – Phillies selected the contract of OF Johan Rojas from Reading


PP Trivia

Last fall, I created 259 prospect profiles.  I started updating them last week.  Over 60 players were removed from the prospect listings.  Four earned enough time with the Phillies to graduate from the prospect label, and sixty others left the organization.  Sixty.  A couple via trades, a couple more retirements, about twenty free agency elections, and the rest releases.  I hadn’t realized how many players were released during the season.

196 thoughts on “Weekly Discussion (11/20/22)

  1. I was a little confused with the $ amounts in ()’s for arbitration. I thought the first # was the players’ ask and 2nd # was the Team’s offer, but the sequence doesn’t make sense for some. Please explain, thanks.

    1. Denny…..it is the approx. projection by two different sources…MLBTR and COTs. They are normally, from the past, pretty close to the exact offering.

        1. Rhys’ case is interesting…..he had his best WAR season to date, over a full season, so I want to see how Boras handles the negotiation.

            1. Skeet…..but will Boras recommend to his client to accept the deal?
              Most times, not always though, Boras likes the players to go to free agency

          1. Rhys reached for a new contract but it bounced up and over his left shoulder. (Thank you folks. I write my own material.)

  2. Can’t believe you mentioned the name Andrew Knapp WOW that brings back memories of how awful our franchise was psst you still owe me a $1 on a Andrew Knapp bet 😂😂
    Stick

  3. Romus………. I don’t think much is to be gained from negotiating the arb., if Boras is planning to go FA. Except if DD is trying to keep it congenial for future negotiations. I don’t see DD doing that. 3 things with the current conundrum.

    1. I’m not sure we want him long term.
    2. He’s only borderline valuable at the arb. figure.

    3. Boras will be Boras exercising all his BS negotiations in marketing Rhys.

    We could really end up getting nothing for him.

    What would you do?

    1. Skeet……trade him for a young controlled back of the rotation pitcher or major league close-to-ready pitching prospect, and with the $$$$ savings then, also get another pitcher.

      1. Agree, I don’t see any longterm benefit of not trading Hoskins this winter when you can get more for him than waiting until the deadline. Even with Harper on the shelf, there are enough 1b/DH options in house, and even Abreu for 2 or 3 years would be a better value.

        1. I agree with both of you, if you can work a trade, that is fine. I don’t see him as an integral part of the team long term that is why I proposed what I proposed thinking opt out after year 2. 1st year 14M, 2nd year 16M. 20Mil and 22Mil subsequent years. If you think Boras would have bought into that, you don’t know Boras. So,…….3up….the cost was only 1 more year than what you are going to have anyhow and you would have more time to entertain moving him. As it stands right now, IMO anyhow we are not the ones with the negotiation leverage and time is fleeting. Hey, FWIW!

          1. So they theoretically can’t find a trade partner this year for 1 year at $13 million but will have a better chance next year for 1 year at $16 million?

            Either he has trade value or he doesn’t but don’t see how adding another year at higher dollars changes that dynamic.

            1. If they are going to move Rhys…..it probably best to be done within the next 2, maybe 3 months. If he is here for spring training , then he is here to stay thru the year.
              Assume Phillies will be contending come July (unless they have a rash of key injuries)…so they will not trade Rhys then since it will disrupt the chemistry of the team.

  4. One note about Rojas — his walk rates and strikeout rates are good (check out his AFL, 2022 and 2021 stats). The stereotypical free-swinging, never-walking Latin player is not Rojas. He needs to tap into some power so that he doesn’t end up as Ben Revere.

    I thought the Fangraphs article on NL East 40 man decisions was interesting — it had Rojas’ MLB ETA as 2023.

    1. With Harper out in the early going, it’s very plausible, if Rojas impresses in camp, that he goes north with the big club and gets regular ABs and late inning defensive stints, or Marsh shifts to a corner and Rojas gets the lion’s share of CF.

      1. I hope to God the Phillies do NOT promote Rojas coming out of ST.

        Rojas does a few things well enough to be a major leaguer right now – namely field and run the bases. And nobody can deny he is an electric athlete – on the field you can’t take your eyes off of him – it’s pretty special. But he has quite a bit of way to go as a hitter. His strikeout rates are good but his walk rates are average. Combine that with power numbers that are not good and an average that is mediocre and you get a very low on base (.285 lifetime) and slugging rates that do not allow him to maximize his value as a base runner and would render him a field only player right now in the big leagues. Rojas is all projection, but he needs more time in the minors to develop. Whether that additional time is half of a season or a season and a half is anyone’s guess, but he’s not ready now and the organization would do no favor by promoting him before he is ready.

    2. Rojas, his walk and strike out rates are ok, but if there was a little improvement that would help him greatly. He already has more power than Ben Revere with 7 and 11 Hrs last 2 years. He just needs to hit/contact a bit better. Put him with Kevin Long for a week in ST and see what he can do.

    3. Apparently when the analyst talk about Rojas and his need for more power they are referring to ‘HR’ power.
      In 2021, his ISO was over .150……he was able to drive the ball for 22 doubles and triples combined in 429 PAs.
      Last season….due to his slow start, his ISO suffered badly, though at Reading it did pick up…but that could be the hot summer park factor there aiding him
      But what does not show is his successful SB rate, which can equalize out the lower ISO.
      I do think however, as he matures more into seeing the higher level of pitching, he will generate the added lift to hit more HRs.

      https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rojas-001joh

      1. Good point Romus on the SB%. All those SB actually turn a whole bunch of singles and walks into doubles which does not show up in those numbers.

        Rojas actually does not hit for power his swings are downward. He seems to be hitting to get base hits and not to put it in air.

        1. Bob D……with no shift…..fast players like Rojas can put the ball on the ground and make infielders roam left or right to get their batted balls…they then could leg out more hits…and with Rojas 75 to 80% of his singles or even walks, turn into doubles.

    1. DMAR…..that only increases Hoskins’ value in trade!
      And really……….is Tom Verducci saying Rhys Hoskins is actually a .319 batter for 2022!

      1. Haha I’m not sure it is saying that Romus and I guess you take it however you wish to take it.

        My position really hasn’t changed on Rhys. I’m going to ride him for another year unless someone bowls me over with an offer.

        Just give me Turner or Bogaerts and some type of pitcher after Ranger and I’ll be happy. Open the season with Hall as the DH then figure it out from there.

        I just don’t want to see Schwarber and Rhys 1 and 2 next year

        1. Actually Schwarber and Corey Seager were the two LHBs that Verducci said would to benefit the most from the end of the shift……like to also see him out of the lead-off spot….if Turner comes on board that will be his place to occupy.

      2. In a really good year Rhys would hit .260 with 35 bombs…and yes, contending teams like SFG may find him very attractive if he was inclined to re-sign and settle near his southern California home.

        1. Yeah. there is an article in today’s, I think, Philly Inquirer by Marcus Hayes about how people are crazy for wanting to get rid of Hoskins because he has similar power numbers to Jim Thome. Totally glossing over the reason why I personally am not comfortable with him – the amazing lapses on routine plays on defense, including in the World Series. How can you accept that from any player, especially one generally involved in more than a third of the outs in every game?

    2. I came here to share this same article. Really fascinating. It also highlights how smart it is to move Bryson to 2B. He is going to be an elite defensive 2B. And 2B is going to be a critical position without the shift. So much more range than Segura.

  5. But, who are we getting to replace even .250 and 30 HRs if we trade Hoskins? And, there has been nothing in the way DD and Sam Fuld speak about him that indicates there is no interest in moving him, and that he is not considered a core piece of the team. I know all the reasons those of you have given for moving him, and I understand the theory. I think you are discounting how the team feels about him, and also that the team does not feel they get the same production out of Darick Hall. Apologies in advance to all of Hall’s fans. We can play Hall, get something for Rhys, then add something else with his $, and I am simply saying that I believe the team values him more than what the return for him, plus whatever the added $ brings. I think he is our Opening Day 1B.

    1. Matt, the Phillies brass aren’t going to say anything publicly to diminish a player’s market value. Do they value Hoskins? Perhaps. But what they say with a microphone in their face in this case is irrelevant. (1) Hoskins has one year remaining under control. (2) He’s about to be paid more than his real value. (3) He’s worth more now than he will be at the deadline next summer. I personally think he would be a viable addition to a California club within striking distance of a title. The Giants appear to be moving on from Belt. Let’s explore it.

      1. I wouldn’t necessarily take a Marcus Hayes column to heart. I think he likes playing the provocateur.

        Those who so matter-of-factly say Hall can replace Hoskins might be somewhat regretful after the fact if he can’t hit MLB lefties.

        I like Hoskins and think he should stay, though, like i(Heart) his tendency to blow routine defensive plays is a concern.

        Based on Verducci’s column, I look forward to seeing what Schwarbs will do in a post-shift world.

        1. Frank…I hear that argument often about Hall not hitting LHP….actually same thing one hears about Marsh.

          Then I look at the NL 2022 HR leader’s career splits vs LHP…..208/.317/.368… (and then his 2022 splits vs LHP-193/.301/.386),
          …then I say to myself….self, maybe Darick Hall can match those splits….nah….he probably does better.

          1. Good point, Romus, though I expect, as Verducci suggests, Schwarber will improve those numbers this year.

            I’m not anti-Hall, BTW. He was exciting to watch this year and I’m hopeful about him. Just want to caution the Trade Hoskins crowd that Hall being his equivalent isn’t a given.

        2. I would not be completely comfortable handing the job to Hall but let’s say for a second they did move Hoskins and his 2.9 WAR and Jean and his 1.8 WAR are gone

          If you added Turner and his 4.9 WAR or Bogey and his 5.8 WAR and then Hall gives you .4 WAR and Castellanos who had a negative 1.9 WAR gets back closer to his normal 1.8 WAR

          So on and so forth you can see a path to a little bit better of a LU in just that.

          1. .4 WAR at first is not an acceptable replacement for what Hoskins gives you on a team with title aspirations. It’s not going to happen.

          2. DMAR……get comfortable, ’tis the season….enjoy the smooth tasting beverage of some hot mulled wine on these chilly days..

      2. Ahhhh, but you’re not correct. Hoskins is not about to be paid more than his real value. If the value of a WAR is around $7 million, Hoskins is worth something like $15-20 million based on a 2.5-3 WAR season. He is going to be paid around $12 million. And if he has a career year this year (funny how that always happens the year before a guy hits free agency), then his value could be around $25-30 million.

        What I would say is that Hoskins is still a good value (worth more than what he will be paid), but probably not by all that much. But this low difference in value means he is worth very little in a trade. And if you get rid of him, you’ll have to replace him with a proven guy who can hit – so you’re paying that money anywhere. Trading Rhys Hoskins right now just results in the team chasing its tail unless you believe a guy like Abreu will come in and really rake (which he could), but, either way, not signing him won’t really free up money on this team because they are NOT just sticking Hall at first this spring.

        1. What makes you think that 2022 wasn’t his career year? It was his highest WAR season by almost a full point so maybe 2022 is the high-water mark so better to sell high.

          1. In my responses I am not assuming he will have a career year in 2023. I am assuming he will be between a 2.5-3 WAR player, which is exactly the pace he was on in 2020 and 2021 – and what he actually did in 2023. There is a lot of evidence that this is precisely what he is and as explained above, the shift rules should do nothing but help him. Again, what do you mean, sell high? He has very little trade value – very little. Why are we creating a hole in our lineup to get a middle reliever or mid-level prospect when we need a hitter – and actually have him – at first base? None of the explanations to trade I’ve read make any sense unless you’re ready to pay another FA first baseman some real dollars.

            1. So he has almost no trade value but at the same time he’s irreplaceable in the Phillies lineup because they can’t find similar talent for the same money.

              Those 2 positions seem to contradict each other.

            2. You totally misrepresented what I said, which was not contradictory at all – perhaps you didn’t understand.

              He is a relative value, but not a huge one. They are essentially paying for a 2 WAR player and getting a 3 WAR player. It’s a good deal but not by a lot. And they don’t control him next year. Some team would probably trade for that but they are going to give you modest value to obtain that marginal gain because he’s a free agent next year.

              As for him being irreplaceable – yeah, I never said that. You can replace him but they have no viable option internally. If you want to go and replace that on the free agent market you’re likely to pay for a 3 WAR player, which will likely cost more than Hoskins who is an arb player.

              None of that is contradictory or that complicated.

  6. The person who suggested giving Rhys a 4/72 mil contract got me laughing hard this morn. Have they ever watched him play!? Awful defensive 1B. I think I can directly contribute 2-3 losses to him in the last Month of the season. His offense might be more frustrating. 1 week on to four weeks off.

    Then the famous Rhys 2-0 pitch that he pops out to short left field.

    Bottom line, if you want to ride him for one year I’m fine with it then let him walk. I’d rather see him Gone and use money elsewhere and try to shuffle our D a little to help us.

    1. Glad to be able to start your day with a chuckle! Bummer to be pissed from the get go. Hope you have a good one today as well!😉

  7. Look, I could be completely wrong, and always willing to admit when I am. I believe, though, that the intangibles Rhys brings are valued a great deal by the organization, plus his 30 HRs, and I don’t think they trade him. I don’t think their words were simply to keep his value as high as they could. Maybe, after this season. And, I don’t believe the organization believes that substituting Darick Hall replaces those 30 HRs. Again, I may be wrong. Chris, you are welcome to think of the pop ups, and poor fielding. I think of the HR off Strider that was one of the most exciting moments I have had in 60 plus years of being a sports fan. Is it possible that affects my view of Hoskins? Sure, but I also don’t believe that moving him, using the $ on whoever you want, putting Hall at 1B, and whatever you get back for Rhys makes us a better team. Again, simply my opinion.

    1. Okay, I am going to make one Rhys post and then leave it from there because there is too much attention focused on this player to begin with (since it seems highly likely he’s staying put this season) and I’ve been part of that problem/issue.

      First, I think the team is saying those things about Rhys because they’ve already basically decided to keep him FOR THIS SEASON. Not that his presence in the clubhouse isn’t important or the positive statements about him are untrue (he seems like a super guy and good teammate), but it’s a nice thing to say (and costs nothing) when you’ve decided you want him back for another year (or, if the opportunity arises, you need or want to trade him – why not build him up?).

      Second, Rhys is now approaching the point (he’s not quite there yet), where what they are going to pay him approaches his inherent value. If he’s a 3 WAR player, that’s a guy who makes between $15-22 million on the open market. So if he’s paid around $12 million, he’s still a value, but not by all that much. But because his value his close to what he’s being paid and because team control ends this year, the following are true: (a) he has very little value in a trade – so little that trading him is basically of no use unless you sign another FA to replace him – which means you’re just swapping money at first base, not using the money to address other needs as others here have suggested; (b) by next year, unless a new and unexpected 1b option appears internally (there’s a low chance that guy is Hall, but it’s less than 30%) the team is going to need to spend money at first to replace him or in left, if Schwarber is moved to first – in either event, at that point, the team should consider all options, not just Hoskins – he’s good, but he has flaw and is replaceable if he’s costly.

    2. matt….as v1 suggested weeks ago…moving Rhys to the Astros for RHP Luis Garcia, and then taking his $13M savings and investing it into a Eovaldi or Heaney or Manea or a Rafael Montero or a Kenly Jansen or a Taylor Rogers does not make the team better?

      1. Why on earth would Houston trade one year of a well-paid Rhys Hoskins for a pre-arbitration, mid-rotation starting pitcher like Luis Garcia and then pay Hoskins $12 million on top that? That will never, ever happen. You’ll get a mid-level prospect for Hoskins or a back-up position player or middle reliever. And then who replaces that offense? Much as you may choose to ignore it, there aren’t a lot of guys out there with a 125 OPS+ like Hoskins has. And if you did trade Hoskins (for a mid-level prospect at most – no freaking way you’ll ever get a guy like Garcia), you’d need to sign a free agent to replace him – there go your savings and then some – because this team is not sticking an unproven, older prospect like Hall at first.

        1. And by the way, I don’t hate Darick Hall (nor do I irrationally love Rhys Hoskins – I doubt he will be here after 2023). There’s an outside chance (35-30 percent) Hall becomes a starting first baseman (although, if he does, it’s probably more as a second division regular), but he’s not a guy you hand a job to at this time. If they decided to trade Hoskins (I do not see that happening), at the very least, you’d need to bring in a legitimate veteran to compete with Hall.

        1. Yes and no. Yes, they can usually field the position well. No in that with almost every catcher, their value is primarily on defense behind the plate (Realmuto is a good example – 50-60 percent of his value is on defense). Once you move a catcher to first the player has gone from the highest (or nearly the highest if you value SS above C) point on the defensive spectrum to the lowest point and most former catchers do not hit enough to justify being put an offense heavy position like first base.

  8. ESPN has some of their guys predicting where some of the top guys go and how long and how much. Several have Turner to the Phillies for 270 to 300 million and from 8 to 10 years. What do you guys think?

    1. I don’t worry that much about overpaying a good player, what I worry about are dead contract years. 8 years is a long contract for Turner, let alone 10. I’d try to pay him a higher AAV for few years, but that may not be possible.

    1. That’s actually a good guess in terms of contract AAV, length and team – I’m sure Gabe would like to have him back.

      1. I got a chuckle out of that, Catch. Wasn’t Gabe and his pitching coach the one who had Efflin throwing 4smr fastballs at the top of the zone which screwed him up – finally, Efflin disgustingly came out and said he was throwing what he was used to and went back to his sinkers/sliders ?? In a not too veiled manner he let the media know that Gabe and the pitching coach had fouled him up.

      2. Yea, he can work on getting him back to throwing that 4-seam fastball up in the zone again. Worked so well the first time he tried it.

        1. I had forgotten about that – you’re probably right that he does not want to get anywhere near Gabe again unless Gabe has a new PC who will let Eflin pitch the way he pitches, but, agreed he most likely would not want to go there. Thanks for reminding me. That said the contract length and dollars look about right.

          1. Actually it was not so much Gabe’s idea for Eflin to go up high….it was more of Young the PC that promoted that idea.
            Gabe, and Klentak, after letting Rick Kranitz go, went with Young, and naturally decided to embody his philosophy.

            1. Yes, agreed it was Young’s idea, but Gabe sort of watched this happen in real time and did nothing to stop it when it was clear it was a total disaster. You’d have to think that Eflin would be reluctant to have Gabe as his manager again unless he was seriously recruited and Eflin was really comfortable with the PC.

          2. Gabe probably has 7 pitching coaches on his staff of 28 coaches. One for each day of the week ? All eating acorns and doing yoga in the bullpen to improve their “being.”

  9. Romus, we can certainly come up with scenarios that benefit the team. I don’t think we have $ issues, so we can get Taylor Rogers and keep Hoskins. I guess I do not have the faith that you do in Hall, and I do not think a trade nets us Luis Garcia. But, what we can all agree on is extending DD through 2027 is a good move!

    1. Wow – I’m really surprised he agreed to an extension. I was under the impression that this would be a Pat Gillick-like contract. Improve the team, get them to a WS (or two), set up the farm system and organization and ride off into the sunset and retirement. Looks like I was wrong. I was upset when they hired him and he’s not perfect (who is?), but having watched him for now, I agree he’s a very good (perhaps even great) GM and the extra years allow him to do things the right way, which I am happy about. Hopefully, Sam Fuld is the right guy to groom as his successor. But yeah, right on DD – give me some more WS action!

    2. I wonder if that means the Nashville project is further delayed or if the contract gives him a Nashville out, so to speak.

      1. He might (and it might just be a handshake agreement with Middleton to let him out if that opportunity materializes), but we would never know about it until the moment he decided to move on.

        1. Catch – right after the team won the NL Championship Series there was an article – possibly under the Todd Zolecki comments of MLB – where Middletown was quoted as saying they were going to extend DD but no years were mentioned. DD was quoted as saying he was looking forward to continuing as POB. Nothing further came out about it until today’s announcement. I have a feeling that Middleton wanted to get DD in place to open the winter events and now – DD can go full speed ahead.

  10. Hi Matt. Hi Romus. I think it will not be too long before at least a few of the top guys start to sign. Then we will see what is going to shake out with others. I think I am ready just to sit back and see what DD can pull off. I am pretty certain he will have the reigns to put a very competitive team on the field in 23. Uncertainty with Bryce may hinder things some, but the team did ok during his absence last season so let’s hope it is not too long. Have a great Thanksgiving to all on Phuture Phils.

  11. LOL – I had forgotten about that. Chris Young screwed Eflin and everyone else up completely. He put the entire pitching staff into full throttle reverse. They all started doing better the moment they ignored everything he told them to do (I’m pretty sure that Jake Arietta told the other pitchers to ignore him and do what they do best – and poor Realmuto screwed things up by trying to call the game the way Young wanted it called). It took Nola a few years to recover from the damage Young caused. For no reason other than the abstract notion of “metrics”, the team fired an excellent pitching coach (Rick Kranitz – you’re welcome, Braves) and hired an incompetent clown. It makes you really appreciate Caleb Cotham, who is excellent.

  12. If Harper is to miss a significant part of the season, keeping Hoskins another year makes sense. Hall should get plenty of at bats to show what he can or cannot do, I would like to see them play him at first more to get a better handle on his defensive abilities.

    1. I have no issue with Hall getting as many at bats as he can earn. But he needs to produce to get those ABs – he’s an old prospect.

      1. So were Justin Turner, Max Muncy, Luke Voit, Gio Urshela etc ..all older prospects.
        That adage needs to be re-thought.

        1. Yeah, well, it’s easy to pick out the success stories and conclude, this is the right way to go. For everyone of these guys, there are 5 or 6 guys who never made it. Also, I doubt that any of their teams relied on them as a breakout player before they broke out. I have nothing against Hall – it’s possible he makes it (30 percent chance? but definitely less than 50) – I just don’t think you can rely on him as Jim has correctly pointed out a number of times.

          You don’t hand a guy with his background the first base job. You bring in competition and if he earns the ABs (the way Turner, Voit, Muncy and Urshela did) then you play him more. By the way, if you don’t re-up Hoskins (or do and trade him), you can also sign someone to play in left and then move Schwarber to first. But the point is that you need a reliable, established bat to replace Hoskins’s departed bat (because you don’t have a star in waiting in the minors at either first or left).

          1. actually the “not re-upping” Hoskins train has left the station since they tendered him a contract with an arb proposal.

            1. Incidentally, Howard Eskin asked Dave D, about trading anyone from the ‘starting eight’….Dave brought up Rhys….he went into the Hoskins discussion about the fans and Rhys glove and streaking hitting.
              And also his clubhouse leadership…Dave painted both the good and the bad….what Management 101 tells you to do.
              He could have easily talked about Castellanos but instead focused on Rhys
              To me……it has crossed his mind.

  13. I am of the mind that the best free agent fit for the Phillies right now would be Xander Bogaerts. His flexibility as a SS OR 3B gives the Phillies a future (if not more immediate) option to slide Alec Bohm to 1b. While Bohm doesn’t have the power of Hoskins, I certainly believe that he has the offensive trajectory moving forward to exceed Rhys’ career here in Philadelphia, and a cigar store indian would be an improvement over Hoskins. It might be better to go get a glove first SS (Jose Iglesias?) and have Stott be the future 2b, solidifying the up-the-middle defense. I like Turner overall, but I have a hard time with that much money for THAT many years.

    1. I am good with Bogaerts if it’s a better contract for the team. As players, both Turner and Xander are great. As for moving Bohm to first, that shouldn’t happen unless he becomes a much better hitter. Last year, as much as we pump him up around here (and I understand why), Bohm had an OPS+ of 97 – in other words, he was worse than an average major league hitter. That’s not what you want and need at first.

    2. Turner may sign for less than 8 years….and I do not mean 7 plus the 8th-yr buy out.
      Comes down to what the market will dictate.
      He wants the East Coast so that means the giants and Cubs will have to give him the 8 full years for him to settle out there.
      His wife is from Jersey so the Phillies may get him for 6 plus the 7th buy out year….of course with the AVV he desires…..just a year less

  14. MLB has projected 2023 Rookie of the Year candidates for each team. Ours is Painter, I don’t think that is any surprise. 2 more with Phillies connections. Rays is Curtis Mead and Angels is Logan O’Hoppe. I need Marsh to hi like he did after he got here, but I need him to get better as a CF. This is not sarcasm. Why can’t we bring Garry Maddox to ST to work with Marsh? The Sec of D is the best coach I know of to help a player improve as a defensive CF. And, Don, wishing you a very wonderful Thanksgiving. Send your Grandson, and your family, my very best wishes.

    1. Curtis Mead is like the migraine that never goes away. That was a Danny Ainge-level heist by Tampa. Chris Sanchez? Ugh – it makes me sick because we could use him around here. And you know how I feel about O’Hoppe so no need to go over that again.

  15. Thanks guys. Hoosier corn? LOL. Basketball. Matt. Season opener tomorrow.
    Saw today in one of these articles it had Phillies pursuing Iglesias, Britton and Walker.
    Not sure where any of those came from but just saw Iglesias mentioned above.

  16. Length of contract is a legitimate concern, but in general I would go with the best player available and for me that’s Turner. Correa next. Bogearts third and Swanson last.

    As for Rhys, agree that Dombrowski discussing him at length in answer to a question that did not mention any particular player means he’s thinking about it.

    Also think Catch makes a very good point about Bohm’s 97 OPS+. Rather than talking about moving him to 1B maybe we should be talking about simply moving him.

    Happy Thanksgiving, all.

  17. In the Athletic this morning Thomson indicates the no-Harper plan is Sosa at 3B and Bohm 1B. I assume that means Hoskins DH, but he curiously doesn’t mention him

    1. That’s interesting, I can see why they may not want to carry Hall, position flexibility is the name of the game. If they eventually let Hoskins walk and try Hall, Bohm could always play first against tough left handers.

      1. During Dave Dombrowski’s press conference, I had gotten the impression that next season, Hall would not be getting the bulk of ABs during Harper’s time down recovering from injury.

        And speaking of Dombrowski … very happy John Middleton extended him. Parted of me thought he was only interested in a short term thing so he could get back to the business of eventually owning a part of a team.

        1. Hinkie…..from what I have seen in the past, it takes awhile in MLB for expansion to unfold, but safe to say for the next 2 years at least, the projected Nashville or Charlotte or wherever franchises they talk about locations, may be on the back burner, if it takes off at all…..so Dave D is imbedded in Philly for awhile.

    2. I would have to assume that for defense’s sake, that Topper is thinking ‘who’s my DH?’ until Harper returns. So, if Castellanos and Schwarber are penciled in the corner OFs, then Hoskins remains as the primary DH candidate. But what Dombrowski had to say in response to Eskin’s question about the lineup “untouchables” was more telling.

      1. For those looking at Darick Hall – the Harper surgery gives him an excellent opportunity to compete for a role in 2023 and beyond. They will probably bring in another DH-type bat without Harper around to compete for playing time, but Hall is going to get some chances. If he hits like a demon, well, perhaps you have found your first baseman for 2024.

  18. Wishing all of you a very Happy Thanksgiving. My best to you and your families. Thank You, Jim, for all of the work that goes into this, the best site about Phillies baseball in the world!

  19. I like Eflin and I would like to see him back just at a more moderate AAV than 15. I’d also make him a BP guy. I liked the way Robby used him in different match-up roles where he didn’t care if it was the 6-7-8 or 9th

    I think Plassmeyer has a real shot to gain a spot somewhere either in the rotation or the pen. And hopefully Coonrod is healthy enough to sure up the spot vacated by Knebel.

    I’m hoping they make a quick decision on our SS.

    1. DMAR – putting aside that Eflin’s highest and best use is as a starter, why would he agree to become a reliever and reduce his market value? There’s no reason for him to do that and I am confident he would not put himself in that position. He’s going to be starting for someone next year if he’s healthy.

      1. Catch, you’re probably right. But something to consider is Zach’s knees. Perhaps he will have a longer career pitching 60 innings out of the pen than 120 (or possibly more) as a starter?

        1. It’s a good point, but do you honestly think, having just hit free agency for the first time, that he won’t be seeking the highest dollar value possible for his services by offering himself as a starter? If he seeks relief options instead, his value will automatically cut by at least 30-40 percent.

        2. Eflin’s problem as a reliever is that he’s not a high leverage guy because he doesn’t have overpowering stuff or an unhittable out pitch. He’s never going to make set-up/closer type money as a bullpen piece.

          His value is as a starter and not sure his knees can hold up in that role which is why I’d much rather they look elsewhere if they are looking to spend that kind of money for a 4th starter.

          1. I think everyone here is reluctant to sign Eflin to the type of deal he wants to return to the team. And, yes, he’s not a great fit in the bp.

  20. Have a nice day tomorrow, may the bird 🦃 of Paradise go down your gullet. Thanks Jim, for a great site and the courage and energy to keep it going. All of you, have a great day!

  21. By the way, I did something that was very helpful. I went back and actually looked at the stats and information on the top SS FAs (not Swanson – he’s in the second tier). You have to do this to get some objectivity because the publicity mill takes on a life of its own when FA contracts are concerned. My conclusion is the best long-term contract is for Correa, which is a 180 for me. He is 2 years younger than Turner or Bogaerts. His fielding metrics are better. His power is more consistent and, because he’s younger, he is far less likely to have dead years at the end of his deal. That’s the plus. The downside is that he’s going to cost a fortune and will probably want opt-out rights – but he might be worth it.

    1. Spends considerable amount of time on the IL as well. Best talent among the top 3, but not exactly a glue guy. Not sure he’d mix in as well as Turner or Bogey. I don’t see DD going after Correa. Talking 10/$350M for starters…

      1. Astros did well with Pena in replacing Correa.
        A bold move letting Correa walk…..and it worked out for them.
        Astros and Braves are similar in one regard…..they make bold moves and shy away from hi-$$$$ LTCs for those late- 20 year old superstars…..that is why Swanson moves on and they install Vaughn Grissom at shortstop…..understand, he is in deep off-season workouts with Ron Washington.

        1. No doubt this is the underlying issue with our team. We need to pump out one future star after the next much as Atlanta and Houston do. It’s beyond frustrating watching them pull these guys out of the minors year after year, including guys like Strider or Grissom who go from being mid to late round picks into stars. We are making huge strides on our pitchers. Now I want to see the same type of progress with our hitters. And it needs to start with better selections. If a guy just can’t hit (like Casey Martin), his other tools aren’t worth a damn.

          1. Most certainly, Martin has disappointed, along with another hi=pick college player, OFer Ethan Wilson ….Martin, a quality hitter at Arkansas in the SEC with pop….now too much K and not enough pop.
            Not to sound overly churlish, but the Phillies cannot keep drafting in the second or third round, when they have those picks, players that do not materialize into MLB players…either a role player or a star.

            1. Agreed. Wilson was bad this year too. He was in his first full year, so there’s still time for him. For Martin, I think the ship has sailed – he can’t hit minor league pitching.

            2. Wilson was pretty highly regarded, although there were questions as to why his power had decreased. Martin had a very high strikeout rate. He was a high risk/high reward player. It’s okay to have some of those – but you have to hit on a few. We may hit on Boyd, but, so far, virtually all of Barber’s success has been with pitchers and the hitters have been extremely disappointing.

      2. Yes, the injury history is real. Agree that 10/$350 m is the starting point – ending point is not that far off from there.

    2. Well, there are a couple of other downsides to Correa. Specifically his ties to the infamous Astros, and (more importantly) his injury risk.

      All players can get hurt, obviously, but from 2018-2022 Correa played in 527. Which isn’t bad. But when you compare it to Turner’s 651, it’s not great. Turner has been an absolute work horse. In that time frame, he missed 40 games in 2019 and 17 in the other 3 seasons COMBINED. And most of those missed games were from… Covid protocol. He very nearly played in every single game TWO TIMES in five seasons (missed 2 games last season, played in every game in 2018).

      So yeah. I don’t think there’s a wrong answer. But being younger may not necessarily mean we get more elite games played in this case. He’ll likely be better at the end of the contract, but historically he’s also like to miss more than an entire season more than Turner over the course of the contract as well. So if one of the players fits the clubhouse better, go with that guy. And that may very well be Turner just based on who he’s friends with (and who Correa is associated with). But I trust Dombrowski to vet them and make the right choice.

  22. If Harper is going to be out for a month or longer, I say we sign Conforto. He offers us a few options; he’s a career 124 OPS+ hitter, so if we want him as a pure DH he’ll be fine for that role. But more likely, he offers us the ability to move Castellanos to DH only and improve our RF defense in Bryce’s stead.

    And, taking the “long” view of when Bryce returns, he could potentially allow us to move on from one of our corner OF or Hoskins (if one of the OF guys is amenable to taking up 1B). Alternatively, we could just flip Conforto himself if we only gave him a pillow contract and/or he’s having a nice season.

    There’s obviously a risk involved with signing anyone who missed a whole year due to injury, but he’s a potential difference maker that can be had for well below his market value (in both money and years).

    Plus it’s absolutely hilarious when we sign a former division-rival-player and they go on to decimate their old team. Winning a game against the Mets in which Wheeler shuts them down and Conforto drives in some runs would be super sweet.

  23. Judge and the Giants…I am looking at that as a real possibility..
    And it also would behoove Dave D now to talk to Zaidi about a Rhys to the Giants to replace Belt at first and see what they have to offer in return.
    Giants want to overtake both the Padres and Dodgers.

    “Judge is at the top of the Giants list and they won’t be underbid,” the person said. “If they miss out, it won’t be because of money.” The person added that the Giants planned to entice Judge further by signing at least two-high priced free agents.
    “The Giants are not going to stop with Judge,” the person said. “They have so much money freed up.”.,,,,, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said ownership has given him “no explicit ceiling” on how much he can spend this winter.
    “I think from a financial standpoint there’s nobody that would be out of our capability,” Zaidi said. “And then it’ll just be a question of whether there’s mutual interest and how we put together the best possible team.”

    1. Giants also showing interest in Bellinger who fits their 1b/cf options…and if Judge signs with SFG, then they can afford to gamble a bit on Bellinger, whose glove is a plus in a good lineup.

  24. This is a defensive alignment I would prefer to see in 2023, assuming Harper will DH only upon his return…
    c JT Realmuto
    1b Alec Bohm
    2b Bryson Stott
    ss Jose Iglesias or Edmundo Sosa
    3b Xander Bogaerts
    lf Kyle Schwarber
    cf Brandon Marsh
    rf Nick Castellanos*
    *Castellanos would DH in Harper’s absence with a defensive upgrade in rf. Again, if Rojas shines in the spring, I move Marsh to rf.

  25. I don’t think that any of these SSs are going to get more than six years. Teams like to spend stupid money but I don’t believe that they are that stupid when it comes to long term contracts.

    Call me crazy (I’ve been called much worse) but no SS is going to get that long a contract.

    And did Romus use the word “churlish” in his post? Moffo, can you translate that for those of us who aren’t as highbrow? Wait, did I just use the word “highbrow”?

    1. churlish (adj.) – to be rude in a mean-spirited and surly way. Romus is impressing these days. He even spelled it correctly. Never heard of the word myself, and I fancy myself as a wordsmith at times, although I’m not highbrow. Those vocabulary lessens are paying off for you Romus. Rocco must be getting jealous.

      A blessed Thanksgiving to all!
      (Romus, spell ‘tryptophan’)

  26. Jim Salisbury reports that Harper did in fact have full Tommy John surgery today but that it went well, and that Harper could be hitting competitively in rehab games by mid-May. Not bad if so.

    1. That would be great…..as Jim said abvocve Knapp came back and struggled….but he is no harper at the plate.
      Knapp had his surgery in Oct 2013 and by May 2014 was hitting, just with not much luck.

      I guess Bryce will be holding his fork in his left hand tomorrow and trying to eat his turkey …suppose wife may have to slice the bird for him..

      1. Knapp struggled but in his defense, he played in Low-A Williamsport the prior season. He only “jumped” to HIgh-A Clearwater because it was close to the Complex and all its training and rehab facilities. When he was healthy, he was assigned to Class-A Lakeland and hit well for the level (.290/.792).

  27. Couple of assumptions I would make:

    1 Alec Bohm is the starting 3B. He’s not moving to 1B even if Rhys is traded because a) his bat is not good enough at 1B and b) after all the improvement shown at 3B defensively, he deserves another year to see how much better he can get, offensively as well. This kid is not a finished project.

    2. I expect Dave D to mitigate 2 key risks resulting from the long season – JTRs innings caught and Alvarado’s high usage. I expect the Phils to sign or trade for an impactful LH reliever as Alvarado could have injury risk next year. In JTRs case, they will not start the season without a plan in case of a long term injury to JTR. That could be Marchan getting a chance at the everyday job or it could be a strong RH hitter to platoon with Stubbs (could be Sands).

    And 3. Dave D is going to use the Harper injury to bring in a RF on a one year deal that can play. That will allow Castellanos to DH the first half and becomes a fall back option for another injury or if Castellanos struggles again. I guarantee they aren’t going to start the season with a Maton/Vierling platoon.

    1. I suggested earlier (but it didn’t show up) that if Harper would be gone longer than a month, we should take a shot on Conforto. He opens up a lot of possibilities and has a very high upside.

      1. Dan K….looks like Harper will be back to hit by the all-star break.

        “The prognosis is for Bryce to be returning as the designated hitter by the All-Star break of 2023 with a possible return to play right field towards the end of the regular season,” the Phillies continued on in a tweet about the surgery.

  28. I agree with the theme that they’ll sign another OF with Harper expected to be out so long. Lots of possibilities but I don’t think they’ll spend big on the guy. Conforto is a maybe but Bellinger is probably too much $. Cutch coming back is also a possibility.
    Rojas will not be on the 26 to start the season.
    Hoskins will be the starting 1B
    Bohm will be at 3B
    Turner will hopefully lead off and play SS for us although Bogaerts is a definite possibility as well. We need one of them.
    I’m still looking at Quintana as a very good #4 SP for us.

    1. Conforto will be the most expensive if they can get him on a pillow contract. Cutch is done, cooked, over. Love the guy but he’s a net negative. Bellinger has been a bad player for three years with his injuries – he will not be expensive and he will be very risky. If you could get Conforto on a one year deal and if he’s healthy, that could be a good option. When he has a good season he can be really good, but he’s inconsistent.

      1. How about Adam Duvall……can get him relatively cheap AAV, but probably will seek 2 years minimum contract length…….average defender and with some power with play-off experience (97 PAs) …..mostly LFer but has played RF prior.

      2. The problem is that an OF signing here will know he’s not going to play after Harper comes back. I could see Cutch as a guy who might play well early in the season before he gets tired. I agree he looks mostly dine though.

        1. With all these suggestions for recycled players, on to the garbage heap for leftovers. Just bring up some cheap minor leaguers. Drop$10 million on some over the hill pitchers and has been hitters. Save $ for star and minor leaguers.

  29. I am confused about the two different timelines? Jim Salisbury’s report is Bryce back hitting in mid-May, but the team release says by All Star break, which is July. A big difference.

    1. Maybe I’m wrong but I think hitting, means starting to work back into playing condition – like throwing off a mound or long tossing for a pitcher in rehab. I don’t expect him back until sometime between the end of June and the end of July.

      1. I have to agree….for Ohtani it was 7 months…I see the same for Harper….probably 3rd or 4th week of June.
        And actually do not see the Phillies putting him back in RF after Labor Day.
        IMO, they will just let him DH for the remaining part of the year.
        Why take a chance…he will be without any spring training and the first 4 months of the season out there, and then he could be hesitant in airing the ball out again.

        1. Agree, look for a RF, move Harper to LF when he is able to throw. Let the other dominos fall where they may, no reason to aggregate the populace on Thanksgiving Day, we know who they are. Have a good one, Romus.

  30. Thanks, catch, when I read hitting competitively by mid-May, I took that as being in the lineup. Wishful thinking on my part!

  31. There is a great video on YouTube titled Why Trea Turner is NOT the player you think he is. The person is talking about how Turner’s outside strike zone is bad and players like that fall off quickly. Turner is also very fast and getting older. Speed also decreases quickly in most players.

    Turner most definitely has 2 great years but there is no way he gets more than 6 years. Maybe signing Boagerts for 3B is best? I really want to see Sosa at ss for his defense and Stott at 2B. 1B is not best for Bohm, but him there and see if he breaks out. I think the power is there with Bohm it just hasn’t shown up yet.

    1. I’ve seen this, it does makes me hesitant (obviously) but he does also say you’re likely to get 3 Top years of production out of him… it’ll depend on how many years he will accept. 6 would be awesome but I can’t see less than 8. Word floating around is that it will take 10. 3 top year 2-3 above avg. 2-4 dead years. Hopefully his defense would be there still. Tough call at 10 years imo, with 3 other options. 8 is much more palatable, but they are
      Going for it. Luckily the team is mostly built out … they are not looking for a closer or setup man anymore, just support guys that can fill in.
      Will see, I’ll let DD do his thing, obviously knows more than I do. I honestly couldn’t say that about Klentak

    2. He’ll be 30 next year and is in great shape. He should have 4 great years left, not 2, so if we can get him for 6 that would be awesome and I can live with 8. He can move to 2b or 3b later. Bogaerts doesn’t want to play 3b and won’t sign anywhere that wants him to play there. Soda is defunct not an everyday player, he’s a utility glove. His hitting will be exposed if he plays too much. And I still hate the idea of Bohm playing 1b, where he’d be a light hitting 1b.

  32. I don’t think any of them take 6 years. Correa took his short term deal already and wants 10 years. I can’t see less than 8 for the others. I, actually, am only interested in Turner or Bogaerts. And, I think Turner has more than 3-4 years of prime production, even accounting for his age. I do not believe that Sosa is the starting SS, 3B or other than a much played utility player. We don’t get a SS only if they all get 10 years, and DD passes on that. Especially without Harper until the All Star break, they are going to add a bat, and not one that plays the OF. Again, just my opinion, and $ is not a factor. This run was tremendous, and the organization is not taking a back step now.

    1. Correa will get 10 yrs minimum, Turner will get 8 yrs, Bogaerts 6 yrs and Swanson 4-5 yrs. And the total respective salaries/AAVs should rank in like manner. Again, my preference would be to sign Bogaerts and sign a TOR, even if it’s not a long term deal.

  33. All the ESPN guys were guessing 8 to 10 years for the shortstops.
    So, we just have to wait and see what happens.
    Turner was in the 270 to 300 range. I do think Correa had the highest $$$s.

  34. Taking a fresh stab at the free agent market with predictions of who lands where…the years and money are a grab bag, so I won’t bother trying:

    Carlos Correa – Chicago Cubs
    Jacob deGrom – Texas Rangers
    Justin Verlander – Los Angeles Dodgers
    Carlos Rodon – New York Yankees
    Trea Turner – Philadelphia Phillies
    Xander Bogaerts – Los Angeles Dodgers
    Aaron Judge – San Francisco Giants
    Nathan Eovaldi – Boston Red Sox
    Cody Bellinger – Chicago Cubs
    Jose Abreu – Seattle Mariners
    Dansby Swanson – Atlanta Braves
    Josh Bell – New York Yankees
    Chris Bassitt – San Diego Padres
    Andrew Benintendi – San Diego Padres
    Taijuan Walker – Philadelphia Phillies
    Taylor Rogers – Philadelphia Phillies
    Brandon Nimmo – New York Yankees
    Zach Eflin – St Louis Cardinals
    Jose Quintana – Seattle Mariners

    1. Most seem like reasonable projections….however,
      Josh Bell – New York Yankees????….Anthony Rizzo probably put that one away.

      Giants want Judge so bad….I look for a 8 yrs/$345M offer coming maybe this afternoon.

      1. Still wondering if the Phillies will acquire an insurance policy against Harper’s absence by signing a one year “prove it” bat like JD Martinez, Conforto, Bellinger, Gallo, etc…or lay in the weeds for the president of Bryce’s fan club, Yoshida, once he’s posted by the NPB?

    2. I say you are underestimating the Mets. They are going to spend. The Braves have also advanced in their ability to spend. The area they’ve built around the stadium is a cash cow for them. I suspect others will follow.

    1. I’m surprised Didi had 230 SS throws in 2022. He played, what? 65 games? Bryson Stott played around double that and is listed at around 350 throws. I never thought of Gregorius as having great range.

      1. I0Heart)….do not forget the shift effect on the amount of ground balls the player my come across. I am not sure where Didi was positioned vs where Stott was positioned in a shift.

  35. I imagine Hall will be the most likely player to take Harpers roster spot. He will likely start against righties at DH or 1B at times but a right handed hitter will likely be DH against lefties. So early in season a number of players will get looks for extra at bats when Hall is on bench.
    This also allows the Phils to determine if they want to extend Hoskins past 2023 or not. It gives Hall an opportunity to showcase for the 1st base job, but he will have to be able to hit lefties. They will have more time to experiment in practice or give time at 1st base to others that are mentioned as 1st basemen potential such as: Schwarber, Bohm, Castellanos. This is assuming they do not make a move to add to that spot outside of depth signings. If Hall has a bad spring training or a surprise emerges then it will be someone else on the roster.

    IMO Hoskins will be hard to replace let alone improve upon with whom is available in free agency and trades. *spoiler Carlos De La Cruz maybe the next full time 1st baseman in the organization after Hoskins.

    1. How about this opening day lineup…

      Masataka Yoshida rf
      Xander Bogaerts ss
      JT Realmuto c
      Kyle Schwarber lf
      Alec Bohm 3b
      Bryson Stott 2b
      Nick Castellanos dh
      Darick Hall 1b*
      Brandon Marsh cf

      *When Harper returns, he replaces Hall in the lineup in the 3 hole, pushing the middle of the lineup back a spot; Schwarber gets reps at 1b and Castellanos plays lf.

      Yes, I predict Hoskins will be traded for pitching depth since he will eventually get squeezed out anyway, what with DD going after insurance in the OF. It’s in Dombrowski’s DNA. Yoshida will get 5/$70M, Bogaerts 6/$180M…if this market ever gets going. Crickets.

      I think the Phillies should also sign Taijuan Walker at 3/$40M, and lefty reliever Taylor Rogers at 3/$33M, a realistic take on the off season activity. Turner may be their man, but signing a cheaper Xman may afford them to do the other deals.

      1. mark…I think Bogaerts can come at a few shekels less then $30M AAV.
        Perhaps $28M AAV over 6 plus and option/buy- out year ….6/$168M

      2. Schwarber has already said he was terrible at 1B and doesn’t want to go back. Hoskins is not going anywhere, he might even get extended.

        1. Extended!? Noooo and why? Why would you extend an average 1B hitter that an awful defender who’s already in his 30s for 15m+!?!? Please explain

          1. Look at the stats, is he really “average”? He’s streaky but 30 homer guys don’t fall from the trees. Plus, he’s a fixture personality in the locker room and that is more important than fans realize. I don’t think folks give him his due. Having said that, I don’t like him batting 2nd.

            1. Hoskins average OPS+ is 125 meaning he averages 25% better than league average. So he is a positive in the lineup. No need to trade him, let the year play out and see if an extension is a good thing or if Hall seizes the opportunity. Hall has not been exposed to many leftys so far in majors.

            2. Average 1B batting is what I said. Combine that with one of the worst defensive 1B and let me know when 15 m a year is a bargain. Money best used elsewhere.

              Bleacher report has him as 1B #12 in 2022.

              You’re telling me we’re not close to the point his cost is outweighing his production?

            3. Not a whole lot of room on this board for comments made from gut instinct…why everything has to be broken down from the WAR department, I don’t know. Pretty easy to rate players on what they’ve done up until now using someone else’s pie chart. Sometimes you have to look beyond the algorithms and onward to the future, have a feel, and know when to cut a player loose. I trust Dombrowski to think outside the box of prevailing consensus. Those are the people who blaze the trail instead of simply yielding to the current 3-outcome philosophy.

    2. At this point, I would expect Sosa to “platoon” with Hall depending on the pitcher with Bohm or Hoskins DHing against lefties. Vierling is still penciled in as the 4th OF. Obviously it could all change if they sign another OF.

  36. Sorry to disagree mark, I don’t think DD is adding any OF insurance, other than a possible AAA signing with a ST invite, and I don’t think Hoskins is being traded, especially with Harper out until who knows when. I will take Turner, Walker and Rogers, so we agree on the last 2.

  37. I think we just enjoy Hoskins’ final year in Philly for what he is. He could be brought back at the right price, but I don’t see that happening.

    This could also be Bohm’s last year as well. It’s been three years now and we are still waiting for him to hit with power. He’s probably what he is at this point. As he gets more expensive, he becomes less valuable. And yes, his defense is still bad, despite the improvements.

    I think a trade happens. Dave Dombrowski is known for making trades and we desperately need a lefty bat to fill in RF for a while. Nick Maton ain’t it.

    For SS, I am leaning towards Dansby at this point. He’s the youngest and has the most range and defensive value, which will be important without a shift. Bogaerts is my #2, but it could be a tossup.

    1. I like Swanson also…he does a lot of things well..at the plate and in the field.
      Though he does have some peripheral metric issues, compared to the others, that could play into the thinking of Phillies on whether or not to make him an offer.
      K%….career.
      Swanson-24%
      Turner- 18%
      Bogaerts- 18%
      Correa-20%
      ————————–
      BB%… career:
      Swanson-9%
      Turner-7%
      Bogaerts- 9%
      Correa-13%

      1. But the issue with Swanson is that, before last year, which was an admitted great year for him – 5.7 WAR – Swanson had never even played to a 3 bWAR. He’s a good player and all but I wouldn’t bet the kind of money he wants that he can repeat last year’s performance again and again. I go with one of the other three guys over Swanson. If you can get Bogaerts on 6 year deal that might be the ticket. Why? Turner may want a deal that’s way too long, Correa is a huge injury risk. You slot Bogaerts in and forget about it – he churns along and produces year after year and then can shift to third for the back part of the contract. Just to be clear – For the next 3-4 years I don’t think you go wrong with any of these players – it’s the back end of the contract that is so tough. I think Bogaerts is coming off only an okay year and that will depress his market value – it may be a good time to pounce.

        1. Everything you say about Swanson is spot on…..history is not in his favor.
          However , I am willing to bet of the four, his AAV will be the lowest, and contract length may be 5 plus the option/buy-out year.
          Which is completely workable.
          Bogaerts would be a very good choice going forward…..maybe the best of the four when you factor in $$$$ and years.

  38. We just signed our next SS, Shervyen Newton. 6’4″, 23 yr old former Met farmhand, never got higher than A+ in 5 years. Switch-hitter with a 38%+ strikeout rate, no power and. 962 career fielding average and .219 batting average last year in 411 AB’s. What a find. Wasn’t even a draft pick in 2017 when we had many rounds in the draft. What a waste, Michael Martinez, of a roster spot in development minor league.

        1. As far as MiLB free agents go, he’s probably one of the higher upside ones out there. Anyone who makes it to free agency as a minor leaguer is going to be a very long shot at ever making it to the majors. So you either get a mentor type, or someone with loud tools who has a slim chance of unlocking something.

    1. We lost our AA SS Guzman and lost Garcia so I assume this guy will play at Reading. Just need a steady defensive SS there with no major league aspirations.

  39. So, reports out of Seattle say the Phillies and Yankees discussed a 3-team deadline trade with the Mariners this past summer which would have brought LHP Marco Gonzalez here and sent Joey Gallo to the Mariners but instead, Dombrowski traded for Thor. Gonzalez is under contract thru ’25 (with a $15M club option that final season) but will make $6.5M in ’23. He’s 30, nice career thus far. Not great but a solid 3/4 SP on this roster. Might Dombrowski return to the table with Eppler again? The M’s are pushing to go further into the postseason now that they broke their drought like we did. They don’t have an established 1b. Ty France is okay. Would Hoskins be of interest to Seattle, albeit one year with a chance to re-sign him?

    1. Don’t want Gonzales, personally. His K% is downright BAD (he had a 13.2% vs. the MLB starter average of 21.6%) and he didn’t induce enough weak contact for me to feel safe about him in front of our defense. He’s going to get a lot of balls in play. And the more often that happen, the more often we have a chance to give up free bases.

      Put another way, NONE of our pitchers outperformed their FIP by more than 0.19. Gonzales’ ERA (4.13) was almost a full run better than his FIP (5.05). So if we’re being generous and say he outperforms by 0.20 with us, that puts him at 4.85. Do we really want to trade for a 4.85 ERA? I’d rather have Hoskins.

      Oh, and he also gave up 30 HRs, which was 4th most in all of baseball. And that’s with a fairly neutral homerun park as his home field. He’d probably be closer to 35 with Philly as his home park.

    2. We’re not trading Hoskins, I hope everyone will stop with the proposed Hoskins trades. Not happening, at least not in the off season.

      1. Don’t go there Murray – I’ve learned the hard way – until Hoskins is gone, one-quarter of the chats here will be about trading Hoskins or people convincing themselves that DD is looking to do so. I am so not going there anymore – the chats rarely make any sense and just go in circles.

        1. If you happen to listen to the presser….Eskins’ question was concerning the ‘starting eight’….and Dave D is the one who went right into Rhys…he was not prompt by anyone to talk about Hoskins. I really do not not see why this happens to be such a trenchant subject.

          1. Yeah, okay, whatever. It’s like you’re making my point for me. I am just not doing any more trade Rhys talk. It always goes nowhere. Not taking the bait

    3. Ty France is better than Hoskins. France just put up 3.1 WAR and 4.3 WAR in his last two seasons, and he is going into his age 28 season. And he makes a lot less than Hoskins. And he is under team control for 3 more years.

  40. The best fit for Philly at SS is to keep Stott there after they have Bryce Harper build a time machine and go back in time to prevent Klentak from trading Curtis Mead for Christopher Sanchez. Then promote Mead to play 2B.

  41. Way to bring up another sore subject, Bob!! Just kidding! That was a very big misjudgment by Klentak. I think it is going to be Turner. On the Hoskins front. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. Mine is that he is here for this coming season. I understand the arguments otherwise, and some is anti-Hoskins, some is trying to maneuver to improve the team, and some is a belief in Darrick Hall that I just don’t share. I don’t think we have any $ issues, so I don’t move him to free salary space. I also think some folks don’t believe he is thought to be such as integral to the team as I believe the team feels he is. I don’t believe his 30 HRs are as easy to replace as some do, and I guess that goes back to the Hall argument. Anyway, my opinion is Hoskins stays, the SS we get adds a bat, we add a SP and a fairly significant BP arm.

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