Phillies’ Free Agent Class, 2022

Weekly Discussion

The Phillies and seven other teams are hoping to go deep into the playoffs.  However, that hasn’t delayed the beginning of the offseason for the 22 other teams and players who are not on a 40-man roster.

Major League free agency won’t begin until the morning after the final game of the World Series.  In the meantime, any player who is not on his team’s 40-man roster at the end of the regular season but has three-plus years of Major League service time, multiple career outright assignments, and/or seven-plus seasons in the minors has the right to elect free agency.

MiLB began posting transactions of players electing free agency on October 7th.  So far, the only player from the Phillies to have elected free agency is infielder Johan Camargo.  Other free agents with Phillies’ connections who declared for free agency are catcher Andrew Knapp, infielder Willians Astudillo, and pitchers Jerad Eickhoff and Aneurys Zabala.

There will be more free agents during the coming weeks.  All unsigned players with six years of major league service can become free agents after the world series.  Those players on 40-man rosters who are not tendered by December 1st will also opt for free agency.

We all know the following –

  • The Phillies have 5 free agents on their roster – David Robertson, Brad Hand, Kyle Gibson, Noah Syndergaard, and Corey Knebel.
  • Three players have options.  We expect Aaron Nola‘s to be accepted and Jean Segura‘s and Zach Eflin‘s to be declined and bought out.  They’ll become free agents.
  • Seven Phillies are arbitration eligible.  We all anticipate Rhys Hoskins, Jose Alvardo, Seranthony Dominguez, and Ranger Suarez to be signed either before or during the arbitration process.  Sam Coonrod, Edmundo Sosa, and Yairo Munoz are all first-time arbitration eligible and command very low estimates when compared to the league minimum.  Coonrod probably gets signed.  Munoz and Sosa both have zero options remaining.  Advantage Sosa.  He’ll probably be tendered.  Munoz probably isn’t tendered an offer and goes to free agency.

There are 16 pre-arbitration players on the Phillies’ 40-man roster who can become free agents if they are not tendered contracts.

  • RHP: Chris Devenski has five-plus years of major league service time.
  • LHP: Bailey Falter, Kent Emanuel, Cristopher Sanchez,
  • RHP: Andrew Bellatti, Mark Appel, Vinny Nittoli, Nick Nelson, Francisco Morales,
  • Catchers: Donny Sands, Rafael Marchan, Garrett Stubbs,
  • Infielders: Darick Hall,
  • Outfielders: Jhailyn Ortiz, Simon Muzziotti, Brandon Marsh.

All the above have seven years of minor league service or seven years combined major/minor league service.  Many will be tendered to fill out the active roster or to be depth in Lehigh Valley.  Those not tendered will likely enter free agency.

There are 28 minor leaguers who have the minor league service time or a combination of major/minor league service time to be eligible for free agency.  Well, 28 players, since Johan Camargo has already declared free agency.  They are –

  • LHP: Jace Fry, Jonathan Hennigan, Braeden Ogle, Ryan Sherriff
  • RHP: Trevor Bettencourt, Andrew Brown, Joel Cesar, Nick Duron, Ofreidy Gomez, James Marvel, Tyler Phillips, Bubby Rossman, Rodolfo Sanchez, Tayler Scott
  • Middle Infielders: Daniel Brito, Ali Castillo, Jonathan Guzman, Wendell Rijo, Daniel Robertson, Nicolas Torres, Kevin Vicuna
  • Corner Infielders:  Aldrem Corredor, Josh Ockimey
  • Outfielders: Jorge Bonifacio, Dustin Peterson, Josh Stephen, Justin Williams

Almost everyone in this group will test free agency.  The Phillies will attempt to retain several of the above payers, mostly pitchers I imagine.

Friday, RHP Michael Kelly declared free agency.  I’ll post this and update as necessary over the coming weeks.

 

37 thoughts on “Phillies’ Free Agent Class, 2022”

  1. Early thoughts:

    FA: Targets – Swanson or Turner
    bring back a combination of Synderguard or Gibson, Hand, Efflin.
    Extend – Nola, Marsh Bellatti, Appel (value)

    Thoughts are we can live with Bohm at 3rd. Hoskins needs to move to DH, to keep the advantage of a heavy offense.

    RF – Harper (fingers crossed)
    CF – Marsh
    LF Likely castellanos
    1B – schwarber.
    2B: Stott,
    SS: Swanson/Turner
    3B: Bohm
    C: Some dude named Realmuto
    DH:Hoskins

    Bench – Sosa for obvious defensive replacement. The other spots will focus on the same for LF & 1B

    SR – Wheeler,Nola, Painter (at some point) Suarez, Synergusrd/Gibson – possibly overtaken by Abel/McGarry.
    Bullpen: Dominguez, Alvarado, McGarry for playoff run, Robertson, Hand, bellatti for depth

    I’m sure DD has some
    More tricks but that’s how I see a possible outcome midway through the season, right before the tradeline

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    1. Not sure why you thing Schwarber would be better at 1b vs Hoskins?

      If the goal is to improve the defense one of the roster DHs need to move on. Hoskins is the easiest choice.

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      1. It would be interesting to see Castellanos at first and at 6’4 he has the size for the position. As a former infielder he can at least field a grounder and little need to worry about all his previous throwing errors from the hot corner while at first base.
        But would he want to change positions?

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        1. Romus, was thinking the same thing. Would really like to keep Hoskins for the bat for another season. Team is built for the playoffs. Hoskins bat is still scary, but just because if the obvious hr. He should get a few over the course of 3 to 4 series

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        2. Yes, maybe Castellanos can play 1b but that still does nothing to improve the defense. Just shuffling deck chairs on their defensive titanic.

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          1. 3UP – In my view, I’m not looking for improvements, but not at sacrificing the juggernaut the offense is.

            Harper in RF over Nick C = +
            Marsh in CF = +
            Schwarber in LF = push
            Realmuto at C =push
            Castellanos at 1B = possible + over Hoskins – Avg
            Stott at second over segura = + (admittedly close)
            Turner/Swanson at SS over Stott =+ to =
            Bohm at 3rd = push

            Bohm with another offseaon hopefully gets better.

            The defensive is improved. Not by leaps and bounds but improved. Offense is improved. Sosa and others cans be used as defensive replacements in the playoffs. They can limp through the regular season. They don’t have the luxury of a top offensive player who can also field like they did in 07-11’ era. Luckily with the DH, it seems has minimized that aspect for the Phillies. Polish it off with SO bullpen arms.

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  2. Phils have a full 40 man roster, plus 7 on 60 day IL. 5 Free agents at years end mean at least 2 roster moves will be needed to bring roster down to 40. Additional spots (I guess 3) to protect from rule 5 draft will require more moves.
    Player options: Nola will be kept, Segura my guess is he too will be retained, and Eflin let go.
    Arb eligible: only Munoz walks
    Pre Arb eligible: LHP: Bailey Falter, Cristopher Sanchez (Both Kept) //, Kent Emanuel (Gone)
    RHP: Andrew Bellatti, Francisco Morales, (Both Kept) // Mark Appel, Vinny Nittoli, Nick Nelson, Chris Devenski (Gone)
    Catchers: Donny Sands, Rafael Marchan, Garrett Stubbs, (all Kept – possible trade candidates in here)
    Infielders: Darick Hall,
    Outfielders: Jhailyn Ortiz, Simon Muzziotti, Brandon Marsh. (all Kept)

    So that frees up 7-8 spots. They also could get creative and trade some whom they may not feel play out in the long run or they want to move on from such as Muzziotti or Sanchez or others. Also with 4 catchers on 40 man they could trade from depth.

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  3. “hailyn Ortiz, Simon Muzziotti, Brandon Marsh. (all Kept)”

    …….Marsh is on the active , so no issue there…..the other two. ( Ortiz and Muzziotti)…I think they go unprotected.

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  4. I am not giving up on my infatuation of signing Trea Turner. He solves your lineup in so many ways. Move Stott to 2nd If Gibson or Thor isn’t resigned need to find an innings eater in case one of the 3 baby aces aren’t ready to step in

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    1. Aside from Derek Jeter, has any SS in the last 20 years aged well into his mid- 30s?

      Trea Turner will start 2023 as a 29/30 year old. I’m ok with giving him 6 years, $180M. I’m not ok giving him 8 years, $240M. The Phillies will be paying him to be 4 WAR player. If he declines even a little bit, this contract will look bad.

      The Phillies gave Castellanos 5 years, $100M and we’re now stuck with him after posting -0.1 WAR at age 30.

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      1. You could see more of the variety of the Twins contract with Correa in the future. If both sides agree, very short in length, but also very high AAV .
        If a team is up against the tax threshold that may not be an advisable thing to do however.

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        1. Correa’s contract last year was an outlier but needs to be put into context, as there were a lot of moving parts. First, his poorly chosen agents (MLB was not their expertise) mishandled expectations and weren’t getting offers that they or Correa were expecting. Second, Correa was unpleased with his agents and stuck in no man’s land with the negotiations and proceeded to hire Boras. However, since the prior agents had already started negotiations, they were the agents of record.

          He ended up taking the three-year contract with a trap door to get out after one year, which is how it played out. Boras was no doubt whispering in his ear to accept the shorter deal because had Correa taken a longer contract with the prior agents, they would get most of the commission paid instead of Boras. I doubt Boras would want to service Correa 8-10 years without getting paid handsomely for it. Now, Boras can negotiate the longer contract and really get paid for it.

          Players the caliber and age of Correa don’t want to take shorter contracts, so I disagree that this will be a trend with young superstars. The exceptions would be players coming off bad years and subsequently reaching for the pillow contract, but that wasn’t his situation. Of course, the other candidates for short term/large contracts are much older players but again, that wasn’t his situation. It was an outlier.

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          1. Perhaps, but I see it differently.
            i can see small market teams and their GMs, when the circumstance all fit into place….ie 28 superstar looking for an 8 year deal, and not finding any takers, decide to take the shorter deal with the opt-out clauses attached.
            The small market teams , those who do have plenty of room under the threshold, could manage this type of a short in lengths but hi-AAV deal.
            A team like the Os, who surprisingly were on the play-off cusp this year, may very well do that this off-season with one of the shortstops in free agency.
            I do think there will be those few deals like the one Correa accepted, coming down the road and small market teams doing it more so than the large market teams.

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            1. Every team would prefer handing out shorter term deals (even at higher AAVs) because virtually no long term contract is going to age well. But the players are always going to seek deals with the most guaranteed money.

              BTW … the other thing Correra had going against him was a history of time missed due to his back.

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            2. There may be a stray situation when it’s an extenuating circumstance, such as the case of Correa. But it won’t become a trend because it doesn’t make sense for the vast majority to turn down a large, long-term contract. The Twins were the benefactor of a messed up situation and took their shot because they thought it could help them get to the playoffs. But most small market teams weren’t even considering it because of low, fixed payrolls.

              Unlike last year, I don’t see any of the top four shortstops accepting a shorter deal this year. Boras controls two of them (Correa & Bogaerts) and he’ll get long-term contracts, Turner is going to get paid, and Swanson will return to the Braves on a long-term contract before signing a short-term deal. The Orioles will likely offer a long-term contract that will fall short if they offer anything at all.

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            3. Hinkie – Indeed, Correa’s health history was a concern. But the bigger issue was that he had representation that were out of their depths when it came to negotiating this type of contract. A great lesson for any player in that stratosphere.

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            4. Yeah, Howard. WME was a strange choice. Maybe Correa thought they could help him in a post baseball career, but they were the wrong choice for a current baseball career.

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  5. How about Stott at 3b, Sosa at ss, Turner at 2b and Bohm at 1b with Hall and Maton for depth.

    Probably going to see Castellanos in rf until Harper is healthy. Would be great if they could trade Castellanos and get Conforto or even Nimmo somehow.

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    1. Id do this if they could sign Degrom or Bauer, while keeping Nick C. I don’t see anyone taking his contract before he has a rebound year, even then.

      Sorry Jim, I think misread this post heading. Phillies FA not overall FA

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      1. No chance I want Bauer messing up the culture in that club house. Some guys aren’t worth it even with talent.

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  6. If you wanted Segura back and I don’t see why you would (I don’t) you don’t need to pick up his $17 mil option. You likely can decline the option and probably pick him up for 2/$20

    Improving on your middle IF offensive is definitely attainable with either Turner, Swanson or the guy no one really talks about Bogaerts who is only going to be 30 and consistently hits at or near 300 with a middle to upper 800’s OPS.

    Swanson of course is interesting being the youngest. He is likely to get the longest term but IMO not necessarily the highest AAV.

    He’s also kind of an enigma at the plate. Back to back seasons with 27 and 25 HRS but still only managed a sub 800 OPS.

    If you think Sosa is an everyday player I think you’re likely to end up hugely disappointed. Great bench piece along with Maton though.

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    1. You can’t and shouldn’t sign and extend everyone already on the club who is having a decent season. That’s how you become the 2013 Phillies (or the 1995 Phillies while we’re at it). If they sign Turner, the fix is easy. Stott plays second and Bohm stays at third – and you won’t need Segura.

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      1. Exactly, clubs that stay the same for the most part regress in performance. I think Gillick, always of the opinion that you needed to mix it up a little from year to year whether you were the world champs or not.

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        1. Skeet…..funny you mention Gillick ..he did that from his first WS champs with the Jays in 1992 to the following year as WS champs in 1993…..almost half the starting lineup was changed.

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        2. If we’re talking regular season, next year’s version will be different:

          LF: Schwarber – stay the same
          CF: Marsh – full year to see what he can do
          RF: Harper – hopefully he doesn’t get hit in the hand again
          DH: Castellanos – banking on a rebound year, he can’t be worse than he was this season
          3B: Bohm – incremental improvements in offense and defense
          SS: Stott – Had .735 OPS in the second half, expecting that to tick up
          1B: Hoskins – stay the same
          C: Realmuto – hopefully stay the same

          Need to replace Segura’s 1.8 WAR who missed 2 months. But I think Sosa/Maton can do that. It’s not like we’re replacing a 4-5 WAR player.

          At the minimum, this current offense should deliver +3-6 WAR on offense alone in 2023.

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    2. DMAR…..under the last CBA clubs could not reduce players’ salaries by more than 20% of what they earned in the previous MLB season — including a player’s base salary and additional payments such as performance bonuses, signing bonuses and deferred compensation — or 30% of what they earned two seasons prior, per the Maximum Salary Reduction clause in the Collective Bargaining Agreement. I am not sure however if this applied to arbitration years for the player…or their free agency years.

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      1. Romus, my understanding is that the restrictions on salary reduction applied to players under team control because the players have no recourse.

        So, I believe, once a player becomes a free agent, he is allowed to negotiate with all 30 teams. Although, I believe there is a restriction if a team doesn’t tender an arb eligible player that prevents the team from signing the player until a set date, in June I think.

        Now, as much as I like Segura, I can’t imagine a situation where he is with the team next season. He would be an awful expensive platoon piece or utility infielder even at a reduced salary.

        Oh, that’s because I’m convinced that Turner is their priority this offseason. After missing out on Bryant last year, I would expect the Phillies to sign Turner or drive his price way up for whoever does.

        BTW, Turner batted 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in 2022. He batted .337 from the top of the order in 23 games and 105 plate appearances, although he was only .217 as the first batter in a game.

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    3. DMAR, I’m a Bogaerts fan however the reality is he has been a below average fielder throughout his career. This article explains his huge improvement this year but it also plainly documents his poor DRS throughout his first ten years. So while I agree he gets less attention and I like him a lot, he just isn’t a good fit for a team eager to improve its defense.

      https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/9/28/23375314/xander-bogaerts-defensive-renaissance-how-it-could-affect-the-offseason-boston-red-sox-free-agent

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      1. Could or would he be better at 2B? I don’t know the answer but you are going to need good D up the middle with a shift ban. Stott isn’t horrible at SS

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  7. DMAR……”you don’t need to pick up his $17 mil option. You likely can decline the option and probably pick him up for 2/$20″……..not sure that is allowed under the CBA. All the different nuances of these last three CBAs have me befuddled.
    Also, MLBPA would probably get involved into that.
    And wasn’t there something one time about having to wait until June 15 to do that?

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    1. No, declining the option makes him a FA free to sign anywhere. If the best offer he can get would be a 2-20 deal from Philly then that’s what he would sign. Just can’t have a handshake deal we’re he agrees to a salary reduction in exchange for an extension.

      For the record, I would rather they move on from Segura.

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      1. Has that ever been done before…I cannot recall a club doing that?
        I know the Astros and Roger Clemens had something of a hiccup 15 years ago and he could not re-sign until May 1st of that season.
        I am not sure it is the same thing as declining the option year and then re-signing the player later.
        But like you…..I like jean Segura….but time to move on, and I would want Stott to take over the 2B position as Dombrowski had hinted a few weeks ago.

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        1. Yeah Romus I don’t the answer to your question but it would seem to me you can decline an option and let the player test FA. If he doesn’t get a better offer I’m sure something is better than nothing.

          But again I think they will and should try to upgrade the position.

          Thoughts on Sosa? I say we’ve been lured into that dark alley before so I’m not buying him as an everyday player.

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          1. Sosa…..Cardinals decided to go with Edman, Donovan, Gorman, and even DeJong over Sosa…and they have their high draft pick Winn also coming up in another year or so…….so Sosa would be nice to have as that utility guy, but not sure he will be anything more than a WAR replacement guy as a full time middle infielder.

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  8. I too am in the advocate of pursuing Trea Turner. I think he solves one problem and that is the lineup, bu having him lead off, it greatly enhances the capability of this offense. I think he also really solidifies the Phillies up the middle Defense. I don’t see them going after a top-tier pitcher and really believe they think adding someone from the big three over the next few years to add to your base of Wheeler, Nola and Suarez will be more than enough and I agree with that. The cost control aspect of this cannot be overstated.

    I am curious as to what everyone thinks On how Harper’s been real clear that Turner is his favorite player. Do you think Bryce speaks with him from time to time, a little behind the scenes networking going on?

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  9. Pops, I believe there is always behind the scenes networking going on. I also think that we are in the Turner sweepstakes, and I just don’t have a real feel for what it will take to sign him. I also think we are not shopping in the high priced SP market, but I do see us signing a #4, like what they thought they had in Gibson, but with an ERA much lower. Could it be Thor? I don’t know that either. I think they believe they will have a young SP ready by July. And, of course, the annual BP help.

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  10. Turner is he wrong choice here. Too much of his game is dependent on speed. His range isn’t what it was, and that will only get worse. No more infield singles. Fielders can play back. Fewer hits. This is a player with a skill set that will decline quickly. If I’m spending $30M+ on a guy, I’m spending the few extra million a year and saving my draft pick for a guy like Correa. Correa got off to a slow start and still finished with good numbers. It’s like he accidentally got to 5.0 WAR.

    Correa at short. Stott to second. If we can trade Bohm for good, controllable pitching, let’s go for it. I’d bring back Segura for third. And we’d still have plenty of money left.

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