Post Deadline Thoughts, 2022

Okay, this is the morning after.  We’ve had time to digest the Phillies’ deals approaching Tuesday’s trade deadline as well as the 11th hour trades just before the deadline passed.  Here’s hoping they are more palatable than they were yesterday.

With about six hours remaining before the six o’clock trade deadline, the Phillies had acquired infielder Edmundo Sosa from the St. Louis Cardinals for LHP Jojo Romero on July 30th and had made a “deadline day” waiver claim of LHP Andrew Vasquez from Toronto.

The Sosa trade resulted in Johan Camargo being optioned to Triple-A.  The Vasquez claim looked like the acquisition of a left-handed arm to replenish the hole created when Romero was traded.

Sellers’ “asks” remained high on deadline day.  But, the Phillies remained true to their word and did not buckle under pressure to trade one of their top young arms.

They completed separate trades acquiring OF Brad Marsh from the Angels for C Logan O’Hoppe and RHP David Robertson for RHP Ben Brown.  Making small upgrades around the edges at such a high prospect cost is difficult to accept.  But, that’s the baseball business.  Hopefully, OUR prospects will get the same or better opportunities with their new clubs.

The trade that “saved the day” was concluded in the minutes leading up to the deadline.  It was the re-opening of a discussion around RHP Noah Syndergaard that had been ongoing for days and died earlier on deadline day.  Up against the deadline and still hoping to dump salary, the Angels were able to “pry” outfielders Mickey Moniak and Jadiel Sanchez from the Phillies.  The delay in returning to the deal cost the Angels a better prospect package (IMO) that was on the table earlier in the negotiations.

A bonus for many Phillies fans was the designations of RHP Jeurys Familia and CF Odubel Herrera for assignment.   I’m not going to discuss these sentiments, but I will be happy that I won’t have to see Familia enter a game again.

Not really a lot of “thoughts”.

If nothing else, this gives you a place to continue to talk about the Phillies for the week.

206 thoughts on “Post Deadline Thoughts, 2022

  1. Thanks Jim. One thing about O’Hoppe — his splits this year are .936 OPS away, ,831 OPS home, so his strong AA performance is definitely not a product of the Reading home park. That one may end up hurting the Phils in a few years.

    But overall, a good job by DD in improving the 2022 club. And good luck to Moniak and the others traded away.

    1. You need to give talent to get talent, even though at first glance, Marsh doesn’t seem to be handling ML pitching that well. Some Angels fans were not happy that Marsh got traded. Marsh has upside. He is definitely a dynamic fielder.

      JT is here for 3 more years and O’Hoppe was blocked. As much as we want to send JT out the door for O’Hoppe, it wasn’t going to happen now. This at least clears up some of the current logjam at catcher in the upper minors. And let’s face it, if you wanted the Phillies to trade O’Hoppe or McGarry, a lot us here would have picked O’Hoppe to go.

      I’m not happy that O’Hoppe had to go, but I’m coming to terms with it. The Phillies needed a dynamic glove in CF.

  2. I totally expected OHoppe to be dealt so I’m not surprised that he was moved. Marsh is a guy with upside who plays great defense in CF even if he doesn’t hit and is only 24. He was a top 60 prospect before 2021 so there’s talent there. Upon reflection, this is probably a pretty even trade.
    Trading Brown for a rental is tough to take. He was only our 4th ranked SP though. Robertson is having a great year and is likely happy to be back, this time healthy, and may really help.
    Thor is a nice pickup even if he’s only a 5/6 inning pitcher at this point. Sub 4.00 ERAs are not that plentiful anymore so even though he’s not the pitcher he was he’s still pretty decent, especially as a 3 or a 4. I’m happy Moniak was traded as he will get the fresh start he needs. Plus it’s a bonus for him and his family to be back in CA. Sanchez is far away from the majors so who knows.
    Sosa brings us a legit SS defensively and we’ll wait to see if Munoz or Didi gets released tomorrow for Segura.
    The defense, the rotation, and the pen were all improved. The hitting will improve with Segura and then Harper coming back. We’re in it….

    1. Agree…..basically now only 7 teams in the NL play-off picture for six slots….Phillies one of them…they have a good chance for that WC…schedule seems to favor them if they take advantage of it.

  3. JT, Stutts,, Marchan, Sands, DeFreitas, Ricketts & Perez, catching is in good hands.
    Haseley, Moniak, Herrera, Kingery replaced by Marsh.
    Phillies win the match!

    1. Rickardo Perez is handling himself well at FCL and Ricketts had a debut for the ages at Clearwater. The Phillies are going to baby Perez (age 18) unless he goes wild at the plate. Ricketts is already 22 and could be a fast mover. But even Ricketts is still 2-3 years away.

      Marchan and/or Sands will likely be playing for another team by next season. Not sure if the Phillies want to keep both of them at Lehigh for 2023.

  4. First, Jim, my thanks to you for opening these threads. I don’t think what I would have done yesterday without this site to share thoughts, vent, hope, worry , and cheer as the day unfolded. Thank You! Second, we are a better team today, notwithstanding last night’s awful game. Hoping Marsh is Kevin Long’s next successful project. He is outstanding defensively with a plus plus arm, and an improvement in hitting gives us a starting CF. Robertson is having a great year, and if we forget his stay here, caused by injury, he’s a big upgrade. And I like Thor alot. Sorry to see Brown go. A real development success for the team and I thought he and O’Hoppe could have gotten a SP under more control. Maybe one of the other prospect Pitchers make strides to fill in Brown’s spot. Are we a WS threat, as v1 would like? No, but we should beat out the Cards to get the WC, and we have a genuine shot with Wheeler and Nola to beat Milwaukee. And we have the top 3 SPs, Rojas and Lee, depth at C and some other prospects to dream on. So, a successful day overall.

    1. I was surprised that O’Hoppe played an afternoon game for Reading yesterday. Deal was made late in afternoon.

    2. I have tabbed Stott and Sosa the “Mendoza Brothers”, so Kevin Long has plenty of projects with the addition of Marsh and you could add Schwarber to the class as well. The only thing that doesn’t make it a glaring deficiency is the dingers. I would venture a guess Schwarber isn’t asking Long for help.

          1. Denny…..I believe you may have nailed one of the biggest issues and reason why with the relatively low league BA.

            1. Romus….Denny……I am sure you guys are right on the shift. I’ll add 2 more reasons. We K a lot and I don’t know when I ever been more aware of umpires calling balls strikes, which might be influencing hitters to hack away. Point is we miss too many pitches. Good win today, nice to get a split.

            2. Everyone K’s a lot anymore. How much of that is because they know that if the ball isn’t hit hard enough, it’s not getting through the shifted IF anyway?

              Just don’t see many 2-strike approaches anymore from most hitters.

    3. I think the Brewers may have poisoned their lock room with the players questioning what the front office did. With the second easiest remaining schedule I predict the Cards win the Central and we are competing with the Brewers for the third wild card.

      1. I’ve said this in the past. These players got you to first place. Now you’re trading them off? The remaining players have a right to be angry.

        The time to trade Hader was during the offseason.

    1. continued ⬇

  5. Overall a good day for the Phillies. Sorry to see any prospects go but you have to give some value to get return. I was and still am hopeful that Moniak will have a nice career in MLB. The hand injury killed any chance of that happening here. Marsh for O’Hoppe, after some reflection, seems to be a pretty fair deal. The head scratcher for me is the Brown deal. He was looking so good that giving him up for a rental is worrisome, even though I can see the need for bullpen help.

  6. I get it Marsh is a talented player, he’s young and under team control, but O’Hoppe stings… How often do you find a catcher that plays good defense, hits for AVG, and for power and the pitchers love throwing to… That’s a potential all star profile

    But like I said Marsh is a talented player in his own right and if he can get his AVG up a little bit this may work out for both teams…

  7. I thought DD did a nice job yesterday, and over the weekend.

    Losing O’Hoppe was tough, but having Marsh under team control through 2027 is huge, it allows the Phils to allocate resources to other positions, like shortstop. Same with Sosa- if he can get his average up into the low .200’s, he’ll be a great utility infielder with his exceptional defense.

    I thought Thor was a steal lol, even if he does regress a bit playing in a smaller ballpark. I’m a Mickey Mo supporter but it’s clear it wasn’t going to happen here. Hopefully, being back in So Cal and getting the chance to play every day for the last two months of the season will help.

    I like Miller and it is tough to see him go, but Robertson in the back end of the bullpen with Seranthony, Hand and Brogdon has a chance to shorten a lot of games.

    And all this without giving up one of the big three, from a farm system that is improving, but still has a ways to go? Well done.

  8. FWIW, this is interesting:

    1. Don’t think O’Hoppe is valued as much nationally as he was on PP. As I noted yesterday, Marsh was a top 50 prospect just last year.

      Time will tell if that trade value was correct or not.

      1. Thanks for posting that, WCPhan. I tried posting it with the others, but for whatever reason, the site didn’t take it from me. That was the most interesting trade value IMO.

  9. The way that I look at it is:
    1. Did our current MLB team get better yesterday? Unquestionably yes.
    2. Did our team close the talent gap between us and the teams ahead of us? Unquestionably no. Actually, one team that was on par with us (Padres) increased the talent gap materially.

    My view is that the core of this team has a 3-4 year window. We have a very, very good core.
    – 2 Elite Starting pitchers and 2 very good SPs
    – A very good bullpen
    – The league MVP
    – A top 3 catcher if not the best.
    – Several other very good offensive players

    This is our time…I wish that DD was more aggressive. But in isolation, each deal improved our current MLB team. So it was a good day, but not a great day imo.

    1. Agreed. At this point, the goal has got to be to make the playoffs. Once they get in, history shows anything can happen. Like v1 points out, the Phillies have two SPs who are good enough to beat any team in a postseason game. The LU is loaded with players who could carry a club through the playoffs. I think Dave Dombrowski did what he needed to up the chances the Phillies end their decade old postseason drought.

      1. I agree with this. The third wild card berth is the charm for the Phillies because they likely won’t gain enough ground on the Braves and Padres to finish better than third (and, as I pointed out yesterday, they are better off not finishing as the second WC team in any event). But they can be quite dangerous and, to me, will be a dark horse to go all the way, especially if Ranger or Thor pitches well.

        The bigger picture issue will be drafting and developing hitters on the farm. I cannot emphasize enough how far off they have been over the last couple of drafts. But the good news is that they are developing assets in the form of some very impressive pitchers.

        As for a window, I look at this differently than others do. It’s one thing when you are Milwaukee or Oakland or Pittsburgh or even Minnesota and you’re constantly racing against the FA clock to bring in and develop players before they are too expensive. That’s not really our issue – our best players are already expensive. So the only issue will be whether they will continue to be good while their contracts are ongoing and for most guys not named Castellanos, I’m pretty comfortable for the next few years they will be good. Once those contracts end, money frees up you can use. I wouldn’t worry too much about windows here so long as the Phillies spend around the tax level.

    2. You never know, V1, although he may become a generational talent, Soto’s career may end up similar to (taking you way back) Von Hayes’ path.

      1. I have to admit, the first time I read this comment, you got me. I was like, “what is he saying?” Well played. good one.

  10. Agreed. And on top of the trade deadline improvements, of course the Phils will be adding one very good (Segura) and one great (Harper) hitter to the lineup over the next one- to five-ish weeks.

  11. Also, FYI, Fangraphs had Moniak as our #22 prospect, and noted today that he becomes the Angels #15 prospect (which gives you a sense of the Angels’ farm system). Hope it works out for him there.

  12. Peeking ahead beyond 2022, say 1-3 years, I like this lineup…

    C JT Realmuto
    1B Alec Bohm (IMO, Rhys Hoskins will be traded this off season to supplement the farm, or obtain a SP)
    2B Bryson Stott
    SS Trea Turner
    3B ??? (…might JTR be convertible?)
    LF Kyle Schwarber
    CF Brandon Marsh (Johan Rojas is either traded or becomes a 4th OF)
    RF Bryce Harper
    DH Nick Castellanos
    SPs Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, an acquired #3, and Ranger Suarez as either a 4 or 5 depending on whether Griff McGarry and Erik Miller emerge next year…
    The bullpen, as all bullpens are, is a fluid situation, but in fairly good shape.

    Good times…

    1. Alec Bohm still doesn’t hit with enough power (or get on base enough) to be valuable at first. If he’s playing third passably (and he is right now), you keep him there for as long as possible. Same with Realmuto – at least half his value is on defense.

      Trea Turner would be an amazing addition to this team. They have great arms in the minors, so keep them around and promote as needed. That said, I am all for keeping a guy like Kyle Gibson around – he’s more valuable than you might think. That leaves the #4 spot open for next year – that’s entirely TBD.

      As for CF, if Rojas develops, you let him fight it out with Marsh. That said, we significantly overvalue Rojas as a prospect. In a good system he would be in the 10-15 range.

      Now we need to draft and develop some hitters. The hitting on the farm is almost laughably bad.

      1. Agree with all your comments. No one in our system can hit. That made OHoppe look even better than he is. Rojas has to hit to have value. Bohm will never be a 1B if he doesn’t develop power. Why does everyone want to trade Hoskins? I don’t agree with it. He has lots of value.

        1. “Why does everyone want to trade Hoskins?”
          ….IMO, $$$$$$
          After next year Boras will not give any home-town discounts and Rhys will be 30plus and will want 4 or 5 years..probably $19/21M AAV..
          Arb4 he will command $10M or $12M in 2023, his last year before free agency.
          His value may be at its highest this off-season.

          You still have Nola to worry about extending also….and if Thor does well this season, he could be offered…..and may have to if Eflin’s knees become chronic.

  13. Sure it hurts letting someone like O’Hoppe go…i was on high him from way back….when KuKo was singing his praises when he was drafted.
    However, if I recall correctly the Phillies have traded two highly rated, top 100, catchers over the last 15 years…Lou Marson and Travis d’Arnaud, and the results have not seem to have been anything worse for the wear.
    Though d’Arnaud has been around now for awhile, 10 years, …his career WAR is less than 6.
    Lou Marson hung around for awhile as a back-up
    Not sure what the future will hold for him, and if O’Hoppe will ever go down as the best Angels’ catcher in their history along with Brian Downing, Bob Boone or Mike Napoli….but want to wish him well and on a very successful career…he worked hard for it.

      1. DMAR….d’Arnaud was in the Roy Halladay trade.
        Lou Marson was in the Cliff Lee trade with the Indians.

        1. Ahh a couple of Cy Young types not sure who the GM was there but some stellar moves…

          1. “……..not sure who the GM was there but some stellar moves…”…uuuh…lets not go there today.

  14. Does know of an Angels fan forum other than the Angels website? I know it is asking a lot but do Angel fans have anything close to PhuturePlhillies?

  15. Does know of an Angels fan forum other than the Angels team website? I know it is asking a lot but do Angel fans have anything close to PhuturePlhillies? Just was hoping to keep following O’hoppe and Moniak

  16. Robertson won’t be the closer today he is closing. I like the misdirection by Topper

  17. David Robertson made Dave Dombrowski look pretty smart in his Phillies debut 2.0.
    Despite still be short-handed (no Harper/Segura/Marsh/Eflin), today’s game shows that this club just needs to make the playoffs and let the chips fall where they will.

    1. Does he feel bad enough about his first stint here that he gives DD a team friendly extension?

  18. Well better than Familia closing out a big win for the Phillies. Welcome to the team Mr. Robertson.

    Looks like that trade was a big win for the Phillies. (Yes, I’m just kidding because I still don’t like it :))

    1. There’s no doubt that the Phillies liked Robertson (as a person and as a player) and I think the Cubs parlayed that into Ben Brown. It was no secret that Robertson wanted to change his Phillies past. So good for the Cubs for extracting more value for a rental reliever.

  19. Nick showing some signs of life again with a big 2 run HR today and Robertson dominates the 9th. So far so good.

  20. A part of me almost feels bad for Kapler. Why smart people do dumb things is astonishing at times.

    Speaking to Farhan’s weird decision to let Gausman walk (it’s not like he signed for Cole or Scherzer type money)

    and giving Rodon an IP opt out clause that was below what he pitched the season before. Yea I get the injury history there but it makes no sense to say give us 110 IP and you can bolt if you want.

    A team that won 100+ games last year now looks lucky to be 500

    1. The Giants in 2021 always reminded me of the 1993 Phillies team where everything just went right. Hitters and pitchers had career years, close games were wins, injuries weren’t a factor, etc.

      The 2022 Giants are when everyone expected in 2021.

      1. It also shows how dopey the writers association can be handing a tree stump the manager of the year award

      2. Giants last year were the last hurrah for their old timers…..and Posey hits the jackpot on his sport’s drink investment and decides to call it quits.

  21. As he just showed in today’s game, Robertson is a solid, versatile reliever. He is equally effective as both a set up man or closer. Indeed, he may have been the best reliever not named Josh Hader who was available at the trade deadline. For those reasons he was well worth the high price [Ben Brown] which DD had to pay in order to acquire him.

  22. Also, how big is replay in baseball. If JTR call doesn’t get changed, the Phillies lose this game.

  23. The Marsh acquisition is a test of DD and the scouting department’s judgment and will be a bigger test for the coaching staff. Will Marsh meet his so-called potential? I remain a skeptic and am hoping to be wrong.

    1. Me as well but if there is a team worse than us in the draft its the Angels. I can’t or won’t even give them credit for Trout when they had 2 picks and took Randall Grichuk before Mike

  24. Anyone surprised Morales wasn’t dealt? High end stuff but again he got blown up at the MLB level against Atlanta.

  25. They interviewed DD today during the game. One nugget that was particularly interesting was that before the trade, they had K Long review Marsh’s swing. He identified specific mechanical changes that he thinks will help him. DD said that Marsh was an elite athlete as a prep player. Big time football star too. Said they think that they can unlock his hitting with some mechanical changes and the rest of his game is elite. Might be a steal.

      1. Several commenters felt that DD would have helped our outfield defense materially in the off season by trading then for Kevin Kiermaier. That objective made a lot of sense given our options at the corner outfield slots. Following that line of thought, hasn’t DD just identified and delivered in Brandon Marsh a cost-controlled and younger version of Kiermaier? I’m encouraged by what DD stated, and V1again noted above, because I don’t think any of us felt Kiermaier had some batting flaws that could be overcome by Long’s instruction. I think Marsh could develop significant power to all fields (think Jayson Werth), which should serve him/us well especially at the Bank.

      2. Wow, those Angels fans are something. It’s a mixture of disdain, depression, anger, and delusion.

        1. Yeah…some sounded as if they wanted their GM to trade Adell ilo of Marsh.
          or Ohtani and get a haul back liek the Nats did with Soto
          And they rip on Arte Moreno a lot….he wants that Japanese yen $$$$ to keep coming in, from the Ohtani market image .

    1. v1, I read that. “Hours” is how they described Long’s review of Marsh and his swing. Yes, if they can make him a average hitter, then with his D and arm, he’s a legit player.

  26. People say Marsh can’t hit, but some of the wide receivers he faced might disagree!

    1. Marsh also did have a college baseball commit to Kennesaw State University (Kennesaw, Ga) before the Angels drafted and signed him for a million.

  27. Not much has changed for me in a day.

    Hate to lose O’Hoppe, but understand the trade. Marsh is an elite defensive CF and is under team control through 2027. Those are both big pluses. Do not like how much Marsh strikes out; the Phillies already have enough of that type. If the Phillies can get Marsh to cut down on the Ks and increase his average and OBP (not at all convinced that will happen), then it becomes a very nice trade.

    Trading for Thor makes a lot of sense, and the price was right.

    I still dislike trading Ben Brown for 2 months of Robertson. A lot. Robertson will improve the bullpen, if just by getting rid of Famila (addition by subtraction), and improve the odds (at least marginally) for the Phils to make the playoffs. But overall improvement to the team, including capability to make some noise in the playoffs, is minimal.

  28. Time will tell on the trade but right now I don’t like it. I don’t like bringing in flawed players with the express idea that your staff is so brilliant that they can significantly improve them. That goes for all sports. You don’t trade for Ben Simmons thinking your shooting coach will significantly improve him. You don’t trade for an inaccurate QB thinking your QB coach will significantly improve him.

    Even granting that Long is a good hitting coach, he isn’t perfect. He couldn’t improve Moniak’s hitting. Maybe nobody could. The best thing for Marsh is that he is willing to listen and make the adjustments he needs to make. Not everybody buys into that.

    1. You don’t like to bring in flawed players but you also don’t like to give up top prospects for elite players? So you just want to upgrade in Free Agency? No trades?

      1. Depends on the names. Your idea to trade Painter, Abel, McGarry, O’Hoppe Rojas and the next Messiah for Soto was nuts. That’s no way to run a professional sports franchise. You do not put all your eggs in one basket. See the Herschel Walker trade. It’s no way to run a business, personal finances or your life. The Phillies do not have a young team and you would be looking at disaster for years if it doesn’t work out.

        The way to build a successful baseball franchise is to invest heavily in scouting, player development and the Latin market. The Phillies don’t have the patience to do that. That’s why they are constantly signing FA’s and losing draft picks. That’s why their Latin scouting is a joke. Success isn’t making it into the wildcard one year. Success is sustained excellence. Nobody can win a World Series ever year but a team can be a legit contender most years if done right.

        1. Soto is a hall of fame player at 23 years old. You think that we have a hall of famer in our farm system? I don’t. Guys like Soto don’t come around often. I think the Padres are really smart to go all in for him. Elite talent.

          1. I understand the Marsh trade. Look at the centerfielders the last few years:
            Moniak-can’t hit
            Quinn-can’t hit
            Haseley-can’t hit and wasn’t reliable due to off the field issues
            Herrera-wore out his welcome
            Vierling-hanging in there. Has a place in MLB.
            Is there a team that had a worse group than above?

            Marsh is only 24 and the Phillies wanted stability. He will have to hit some. If hitting didn’t matter than Moniak/Quinn would still be here. Both could field, throw and run.
            I could change my mind on the Marsh trade depending on how things work out.

            I was all for the Thor trade.

            The Brown trade I would not have done. I have seen Brown pitch. Big kid with a dynamite fastball although it could use more movement. The other pitches are average. I wouldn’t call him can’t miss but the risk/reward ratio is all on the Phillies side when you trade a 23 year old for a 37 year old. Robertson needs to be lights out this year and the Phillies need to re-sign him for at least one more year to make this trade semi-acceptable.

            You and I agree on a lot of things going back years. Moniak, Bohm’s fielding, etc. We agree to disagree on the Soto trade.

  29. I can see OHoppe for Marsh as the Phils will have him around beyond this year.

    Ben Brown for 2+ months of Robertson to me seems a big over pay. Brown was likely to jump into the Phils top ten this year. I can see some reasoning behind this as Brown needed to be added to 40 man roster this offseason to be protected. This may be more of the reason to trade him if there are others who need to be added and it would make a roster crunch. But they did trade with his value at its highest.

  30. MM started in CF for Angels last night. First at bat he swung at first pitch and flew out, 2nd at bat hit a pop up to pitcher and then was removed for a pinch hitter at 3rd AB.

    1. Keith Law wrote a scouting report a few years ago on MM. said he couldn’t recognize spin. Said he was a 4th OF. People on this blog dismissed that report as KLaw is a “Phillies hater.” Was a pretty good scouting report though.

      1. I don’t recall seeing that report from KLAW but I would not have disagreed. Spin is always the great equalizer in this game.

        That said its one thing to say he doesn’t recognize it, its another to say he would never learn to recognize it. Obviously many don’t and don’t make it in the MLB.

        And some find there way around such a deficiency by hunting and killing FBs. This game is full of guys with high K rates but do enough damage on balls in the K zone to hang around.

        Some recognize spin and still can’t hit it That type of report is lazy IMO.

        1. DMAR……statcast runs league batting averages on FB vs breaking balls (spin)…not very close….most good MLB players crush the FB……and if a player continually swings thru the FB or doesn’t barrel it, well, makes for a constant struggle

        2. Google “Keith Law Moniak” you will see KL’s consistent reports on inability to recognize and hit off speed. He said it for many years. That’s why he projected him to be a 4th OF.

      2. I’m not sure when that specific report came out but I don’t think it was an outlier evaluation at the time. The scouting reports on MM were very negative once he got to Lakewood and the numbers backed it up.

  31. Phillies outlook for the postseason is so bright, they ought to wear shades. 😎👍
    Washington occupies 19% of the Phils remaining schedule. The Nats have the worst record in MLB, and they just dealt their two best/only bats (Soto & Bell). The rest of their offense is dreck. They have a negative WAR as a group. Their pitching is just as bad. It’s Josiah Gray and more trash.
    More good news … the Phillies will.most likely be locked into the WC3 spot (Braves are too far ahead & the new and improved Padres should be tough to run down). The Braves and Padres will square off in the opening round of the playoffs. And the Phillies would get to play either the Brewers or Cardinals. The Phils may likely have a better record than each of those clubs. Add to this the fact that Segura, Harper, and maybe even Eflin will be back in the near future, and I’m very optimistic as I post this on August 4th.
    Fingers crossed for the continued good health of Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. 🤞😉

    1. I grant you that Hinkie but the bigger tell will be how we play the Mets and Braves down the stretch. We have 7 this month against the Mets and 7 in Sept against the Braves

      We’ve played the Braves very well so I’m looking for us to stick it to the Mutts at just the right time.

      1. The 7 games against Mets are the only games this month against a team with a winning record. Look for the Phils to close some ground in both wild card and division – especially if they can beat the Mets. Also look for them to create some distance between themselves and the Cards/Brewers

  32. Wheeler was great again yesterday, and Castles earned this week’s paycheck. Hinkie, when is Eflin’s 60 day IL stint retroactive to? When can he come back, if he’s healthy? I was under the impression he wasn’t coming back at all?

    1. The 60-day DL was retroactive to late June. So he could be back at the end of this month (though I wouldn’t count on it).

  33. New piece by Saris in the Athletic shows Marsh #2 among centerfielders in OAA, Outs Above Average.

  34. Same article, Robin, Brett Phillips is #1.I am rooting for Kevin Long to help Marsh hit, but just a question. Would it have been a bad idea to keep O’Hoppe, and just get Phillips for Cash? I know the team spent a lot of time evaluating Marsh, and seemed to have had him on their radar for some time, but Phillips is a great teammate, and a terrific Defensive CF.

    1. Phillips is also a negative WAR player and 28 years old. There is no comparison between Marsh and Phillips in regards to future potential in CF.

      They traded for Marsh as a long-term option in CF, not for a stop-gap defensive replacement in 2022.

  35. Matt – Marsh hits a little now but has a high ceiling. Phillips doesn’t hit much at all.

    Looks to me like Appel will be sent down soon and when Harper returns, I imagine that Hall will be sent down. Both should return with the September call ups.

    It used to be some insane number like 38-40 after September first. Now, I think it is 28-30. Does anyone have the exact number?

    1. I would think Coonrad would get the nod over Appel for the 27th spot. Camargo or one of the catchers for the 28th

    2. It’s 28 players for September. The current cap for pitchers is 13. I’m assuming that the cap for pitchers will go to 14.

      So essentially you add 1 pitcher and 1 position player for September.

  36. Didi released! I am surprised, but not totally. I bet he was told he would come off the bench, and asked to be released instead. Brewers DFA’d Lament, who they just got from the Padres. Any interest in him? Once upon a time, he was a highly regarded prospect.

    1. Lament could replace Vasquez on 40 man, but does he need to be on active roster if claimed?

      1. He cannot be options to the minors without clearing waivers. Also still owed $1.6M. He’s not getting claimed.

    2. matt13….troubling forearm and UCL issues pitcher…..lost a few ticks off velo after 2021 IL stints…..control has not come back.

  37. Well see that Didi has been DFA’d to make room for Segura’s return. Didn’t think they would go there but good decision.

    1. I like Didi….but after 225 games with the Phillies…a negative 1 bWAR player……that was a true letdown.
      His first year..2020…was the best, shame he could not keep it going.

      1. I agree Romus, at this point, Stott is the more productive player offensively at SS even with his Mendoza line BA.

        Amazing thing with Didi was the complete collapse of his power.

    2. Very happy with this decision. IMO it is critical that we understand if Stott is the long term answer at SS before this year ends. If he is a 2B, then we let Segura walk after the year and go sign a FA SS. If he is a SS, then that opens up options. But we need to know for sure.

  38. I decline the option and let Segura walk after the season either way and go all in on a FA middle IF for either SS or 2b. Stott will work at either position, at least in the near term and they can decide from there if he’s a keeper.

  39. On May 30th, I wrote a long post ( in which I called for the following changes:

    1. Prioritizing defense in CF. I said play Quinn or Moniak and don’t worry about hitting. We just need great defense…DD got Marsh, an elite CF who isn’t a great hitter. Check

    2. I said the left side of the infield is a disaster defensively. I said, play Stott at SS. check.

    I also said Bohm was a disaster at 3B. While the advanced defensive metrics continue to point to Bohm being a bad defensive 3B because of his poor range, he is hitting really well right now. And even though his range is poor, he isn’t making a lot of errors. We can live with him at 3B so long as he continues to hit.

    3. I said that we have to fire Girardi. check.

    I would say that was a pretty bold post that aged well.

    1. Yes on both counts. To have ratcheted up the boldness factor, you could have added that the Phils would need to play .600 baseball on days when neither Bryce nor Jean would be available.

      1. lol…I wouldn’t have guessed that in a million years. I am pleasantly surprised how well the have played after losing the MVP and Segura. It makes me excited for what they can do after getting Bryce back and putting Castellanos at the DH.

    2. V1, I find that people that know their stuff are often right, but that’s why I enjoy reading your posts. Do you think they can stick with Bohm at 3B for the short term or do you think he gets traded in a package deal in the off-season?

      1. Thanks for the compliment Daniel. I have looked at other 3B and the truth is there are not a lot of realistic options. Bohm is a good hitter. So net, net he adds value. He looks like a 2 WAR player. At his contract, that’s worth keeping him given our other investments in high priced contracts. We have no real options in the minors either. So seems like Bohm is here for a while.

  40. I know Turner and Swanson, and Correa, who I don’t really want, are probably the available SS options in FA. Who would be a 2B option should Stott stay at SS?

    1. Factoring out guys who can be bought-out or opt-out….here are a few:
      Adam Frazier.. Brandon Drury…..Josh Harrison …..Cesar ……Kiké Hernandez …all over 30 and probably take one year deals.
      Do they move the needle for you?
      IMO…..sign Swanson if Braves let him walk, or Turner and move Stott to 2B

  41. Going forward, Stott probably plays SS against right handed pitching and Sosa versus LH pitchers. Segura at 2B with an occasional day off with one of the other two filling in.

    1. My two subtext thoughts regarding these trades and roster decisions are: (i) it appears that DD wanted to give his manager and the bullpen a sense that once we have a lead, we can make one or two substitutions to seriously upgrade our late-inning defense, especially up-the-middle, and (ii) the last roster moves involving veterans were intended to shake-up the chemistry of this team, and let everyone know that the Joe G “status-quo pro-veteran” days – where veterans enjoy priority roles and are given deference with little accountability – have run their course. I think back to how refreshing it was when Shane V. and Jayson W. emerged on the scene and it seemed like the team was given an infusion of vitality, tenacity and attitude.

  42. Jim Salisbury mentions Trea Turner often regarding next season, nobody is more plugged into the Phil’s’ thinking than him.

  43. Loved Bryce in the booth tonite.
    Top 3 things we found out from MV3:

    1) Loves Stone Harbor
    2) 2 YO Krew knows all the players names
    3) Treatment Turner will be a teammate in 2023

      1. rocco…welcome back.
        –Didi and Segura’s contracts are/will be gone….savings-$27M AAV
        –They could move Rhys……$10/11M savings..Hall to first base.
        –Eflin could also be gone depending on the outcome of his knees…$15M

        …Turner will probably get $23M or $24M AAV
        …Nola has a $16M ’23 salary on the books, however, they may look to extend.
        …Robertson could be brought back for $10M max…Knebel let go
        …Thor…..will be tricky bringing him back if they have to, depends on Eflin’s health.

          1. Rocco, hope you regain strength and mobility soon. And no more pain. Need you fully focused on rooting the Phils into the playoffs!

        1. I cannot but I absolutely loved it 🙂

          A part of me did think why is he not in the dugout with his team mates especially given 2 of the new additions were making their home debuts.

          I also found it interesting when he touched on why he doesn’t hit on the field with his boys during pregame BP. I know LA brought this up early in the season.

    1. When I heard him say they I got really excited. Seems what BH wants BH gets LOL. I’m pretty sure Trea would much rather play on the East but there will be plenty of competition for his services and he will take the biggest contract

      I think the AAV is going to be higher than $23-$24

      Seager got an AAV of close to $33. Turner won’t get that but I think $27 is in play…

      1. DMAR….Turner could get that AAV….but because he will be 30 years old, it may not be the length he may want.
        IMO, 5 yrs plus a mutual option/buy-out in the 6th.

        1. The good news is there will be 3 pretty good SS on the market: Turner, Bogaerts and Swanson. In terms of AAV I think Bogaerts would be the cheapest.

          I think the Orioles will be a sleeper team for big cash on a SS then the Phillies and then the Braves.

  44. I know we go back and forth on the moving Rhys, but I think the team values him way more than a lot of the folks here do. I know he has a big $ contract coming up, and Scott Boras is his Agent, and he is streaky, but I don’t see him being moved this off season. I definitely see a pitch for Trea Turner, with Stott going to 2B. There will be BP needs also with Robertson, Knebel, Hand all on 1 year deals.

    1. matt13…so you are good on letting Nola walk after next season?
      Not sure any team will have 8 players getting paid around $20M or more AAV.
      …Harper, Turner, JTR, Wheeler, Castellanos, Schwarber, Hoskins, …..Nola or Thor

      1. Don’t you just ride it out with Rhys? What does he stand to make in 23 if he’s only getting $7.7 this year?

      2. If you can’t extend Nola you have to trade him so for me no I’m not good letting him walk but it takes two to tango..

      3. Romus, no, not at all good. I want to re-sign Nola. I just don’t want to make a decision until we have to. I don’t think Bohm is our future 1B, and I don’t think it’s Hall either. I think we can carry Nola and Hoskins at whatever they are due to get next season, and the tough choice is the year after. I am just saying that I believe the team values Hoskins much more than the fanbase might.

        1. Hoskins value, if he continues to rake these last two months, will probably be close to the highest if not, the highest it will ever be.
          IMO, besides the $$$ saving on his Arb4, he could bring back a rather decent prospect……a team like the Giants may be interested in him since Belt looks to be done.

          Now if Hoskins is kept after this off-season, a few things have to occur….a LTC will have to be negotiated with him and Boras, he becomes a trade deadline guy as a rental, or is kep thru the season and QO after.

  45. Noah did not instill much confidence in me last night. Not enough swing and miss stuff in his current arsenal. Kind of reminded me of Doc at the end of his career.

    1. all that went through my mind when I saw him pitch was, “you get what you pay for.”

      Thor looks like a shadow of his former self. not sure how much value he will bring. Hopefully Eflin returns soon.

  46. DMAR, hoping he was rusty from a long layoff. His sinker did not have enough movement, and I want to see how he fares the next time out. Castles uncorked a great throw to keep the lead, and Bohm has really upped his hitting, so I will take that W. But, we need more than what we saw last night from Thor.

  47. Another run scores from 3rd last night on a passed ball when is it going to stop…

    And Franco stealing 2B is a problem. They were running at will on Noah

    1. was a wild pitch, not a passed ball. it was a curve ball that bounced before home plate and in the LHB batter’s box. JT set up on outer half. that’s not on JT. That’s on Thor. terrible pitch.

  48. A lot of us think that Bohm will play first, I worry he wont be any better over there, His glove isnt that good, Wonder if they just leave him at third and ride out his erratic defense.

  49. Just reported this past hour: Rocco Moffo to the 90 day IL.

    Syndergaard has always had trouble holding runners on base.

  50. On the affiliates thread, UTNOLE posted that Moniak hit a HR for the Angels. Denny added that it was one of 7 solo HRs. Let me add that the seven HRs were hit in seven different inninings. The Halos lost the game 8-7.

    1. MM homered on a 93 pm 4-seem that was left over the plate. I guess the AL didn’t get the memo about Mickey and sliders.

  51. I’m not forecasting anything … but … with the Braves in NY for 4 more games with the Mets this weekend, and the Padres in LA for 3 with the Dodgers, it is possible the Phillies (who have 3 more contests scheduled with the Nats) can pass San Diego & close to within 2 games of Atlanta by Sunday night.

    And for me, the most interesting Phillie is Zach Eflin. It’s clear, he’s the third best starter (SP3) when healthy. A healthy Eflin makes the whole rotation stronger. And Eflin may even be needed to start one of the first couple of games in the opening round playoff series if Wheeler or Nola have to take the mound for one of the season’s final games in Houston to clinch a postseason berth. The sooner Eflin returns, the better it is for the team, and the better it will be for Zach because he’s going to have to prove his knees are healed heading into a possible trip through free agency this winter. If he comes back, and helps carry the Phillies through the playoffs, it’s not out of the question DD rewards him with a multi year contract. That’s what Dombo did for Nathan Eovaldi after he put the Red Sox on his back in 2018.

    1. I don’t see the long term contract happening – at least not this year, due to his chronic knee problems. This is a year after year after year issue. He will need at least one fully healthy year before he gets anything more than a one or two year deal.

  52. I think the Syndergaard acquisition had a lot to do with the worry that Eflin would not be able to come back, and the worry that Ranger has a limited amount of innings in him this year. I have no idea how Eflin is progressing, or whether or not he can come back healthy, but if he is healthy, then that is a big boost for us down the stretch and into the Playoffs. We have to take care of business vs the Nats, Hinkie. Last night had me worried a bit with how hittable Thor looked, but I am hoping that was rust related, and he does much better next time out. We have quite a few games with them, the Marlins. the Reds and the Pirates, and we need to play well. I think we can head into September with a nice cushion.

  53. If the Phils pass on Eflin and Segura, they will owe $143M next season to these players: Harper $26M, Wheeler $25M, Realmuto $24M, Nick C. $20M, Schwarber $20M, Nola $16M, and Hoskins $11M (?). That leaves room for Turner and/or a cheap starter or two.

  54. ciada…do not forget, throw in $10M for the best reliever out there…maybe Robertson, maybe Knebel if coming back.
    Do not forgot the other 31 players on the 40 salaries….ranging anywhere from the league minimum to the Harper supermax. (ie Scott Kingery $8M)
    Do not forget, …players benefit fee…$16M

    PS Harper is $27.5M in 2023.

      1. Nola, yes. I wouldn’t extend Wheeler – at least not yet. He has two more years in his deal and he will be 34 when his current deal ends. He has also lost velocity. I let that situation play itself out. Love this pitcher. Will I love him as much if he can barely touch 95? Maybe not so much.

        1. I agree, we need to let it play out. Although at this point, and it’s definite rarity for me, I wish the Phllies gave him a 6 year deal instead of 5.

  55. Hinkie….you like Brandon Nimmo.
    Marsh and Nimmo do have some similarities beside the obvious physical traits,
    and defensive anilities in the OF…

    Brandon Marsh….Brandon Nimmo:
    ..both MLB debut age23:
    Marsh…..MiLB slash ….288/371/.440…..PA-1331
    Nimmo….MiLB slash…..277/.387/.414….PA -2612

      1. Romus … if Marsh develops into anything close to the player Nimmo is, I will be ecstatic.

  56. Romus…….the dinger by Hall was one beautiful swing. By the way, I really feel bad for Martinez, guy could star in “Mission Impossible”.

  57. How about Kevin Long saying that Stott will win a batting title one day. That’s bold but would be massive for the future of the organization.

  58. Only 7 teams in MLB have better records than the Phillies so far this week. Not bad for a team that fired it’s manager, lost it’s 2b for most of the season, had to release it’s starting SS, lost it’s best player that plays RF, went thru 5 CFer’s, C in a slump until lately, #3 pitcher out. #5 pitcher starting late due to Covid, changing closers and rearranging bullpen until it straightened out. I’m pumped!

  59. Hope Hall can maintain consistency at the plate.
    So far after 28 MLB games OPS+ of 138 and a wRC+ of 136.
    Not doing too bad so far, for a guy who could not crack Phillies Top 50 prospects over the last two years from Fangraphs and a few other notable ranking prospect sites.

    1. He’s passed the initial test of not looking overmatched against ML pitching. Now we have to see if he can reign in the Ks just a little while starting to take some BBs, and keep the power.

    2. Yeah, I find him very interesting. He doesn’t seem in awe of his surroundings at all. He gives you the impression that he expects to be in the show. I’d like to see him get some opportunities on the field, they could rotate DH/1B with Rhys some. Rooting for him, I think he earned it. Umpires have been rough on him sometimes, but he has a good idea of the strike zone most of the time.

      1. Skeet…he is older than your typical rookie…..but maybe he will be a late bloomer like Muncy and Justin Turner of the Dodgers.were. Maybe it is luck, who knows, but the Phillies are due some luck.
        I think he would have been here last season, but the Phillies decided not to bring him in at the Alternate Camp Site in 2020,so he lost a lot of time, and having to go down to Mexico to find some game action, may not have given him the progression he needed in development.
        Stott and O’Hoppe used that Alt Site in 2020 to their benefit for sure.

  60. Read threads a lot but have never posted.

    Why do so many people here think Hoskins is going to return some great package!? Once he’s a free agent you have to let him walk. He plays average defense at best. Probably not even. Streaky hitter who’s tough to watch half the time. Can’t run bases. And the most important thing, he’ll be on the wrong side of 30. You want a long term contract with him!? Save the money with hall or another free agent filler and use the funds elsewhere. A lot of people here value him more than most teams will. Let’s hear it.

    1. Probably because he’s 3rd on the team in WAR among position players. And he’s outproducing the two guys we gave a ton of money to to help our offense last offseason. Maybe they let him go but replacing his production is not going to be an easy or guaranteed thing.

    2. I’ve been saying that for years. Hoskins is a good 1B but not great. His defense is limiting his value. Yes, he has made some strides this season, but he’s still subpar defensively. He would make a good DH, but that won’t be happening here. He’s going to be a FA when he’s 31 with Boras as his agent. He’s going to want something like 5 years, $125M which you really can’t give him. Paul Goldschmidt got 5 years, $130M at age 31 but he’s an elite 1B coming off a 5.5 WAR season. 5 years will likely give the Phillies back 2 good years, 1 average year, and 2 bad years. You have to let Hoskins walk.

      1. If you could get something of value for him this off-season then I’d say let him go. Have to allocate money elsewhere.

        My eye test on Hoskins is shocked to see his war. He goes three weeks without a hit. Then goes hot for a week. Then he muffs another ball.

    3. chris…..I agree on moving him in the off-season, only because of the salary structure benefit that could help the team. I cannot see boras accepting any long term home-town discount deals, why…..because right now he is ranked 9th in MLB among all first basemen according to Fangraphs.

      ….however, I do think he can bring back a prospect in a trade…maybe not a top 100 BA prospect…but a prospect in a team’s range of 5 through 10 depending on the quality of that team’s farm system. The Giants for one may be looking for a first baseman since it appears Belt could walk and they may not want to give him, at age 35, any long term deals.

  61. I think Dave Dombrowski will be open to everything when it comes to Rhys Hoskins.

    Least likely scenario ➡ Phillies sign him to an extension

    Possible scenario ➡ Phillies trade him this winter. He would be a perfect fit for a club like the Guardians. Cleveland (needs a power hitting 1Bman) has another 40 man crunch situation on the horizon. Two (or more) Cleveland players/prospects (needing rule 5 protection) for Rhys could be a match.

    Most like scenario ➡ Phillies bring back Hoskins for his final arb year (~12M) next season. The team uses the QO after 2023. There’s a very good chance Rhys/Boras take the 1 yr/19M offer for 2024.

  62. I agree, Hinkie, with your most likely scenario. I don’t see the team getting enough this off season to trade him. I don’t see a move of Bohm to 1B, and I still think that Rhys is a better ballplayer than Hall, sorry Romus!

    1. matt….LOL…….but, hold that thought until after Sep…career splits for Sep…..203/.321/.452

    2. matt….who do you think is better….Rhys or the Polar Bear at Citi Field?
      Both below average defensively but power bats..
      Alonso may be coming into a big pay day…..he has 2 arb years left and they may offer to buy them out, and tack on 4 or 5 more years to his age34 or 35 seasons.
      If that is done this off-season by Cohen, yuo can bet Boras will want something similar with Rhys’ last arb year and extended.

  63. I would say Alonso, Romus. And, he also kills us. Cohen is working with unlimited money, and we are not, so that ultimately plays a part. I just think the team values Rhys and I also think he is worth more to us than whatever he would bring back. Sure, if I could get a top SP for him, I would take the SP and let Hall play 1B. That’s not happening. I don’t see him bringing back a player of equal value to the team in 2023, so that is why I think Hinkie’s #3, Rhys comes back at his Arbitration #, is what will happen.

      1. Mentioned below, but our Retained Salary is wrong on that chart. I think they accidentally missed the decimal placement on Didi’s contract, making it $152M instead of the 15.2 it’s supposed to be. So our retained payroll would be ~16m.

  64. Can Hall hit .260+ with 30 hr and field 1b better than Rhys. The Phillies need time with Hall before making a decision about Rhys. No hurry see how both 22 -23 work out.

  65. I(Heart), I don’t understand that chart. What is all that retained $, payroll going forward? We are $100M more than the Dodgers and Mets? That doesn’t seem right. $154M and the next highest is $36M? Something is off there.

    1. Retained payroll is for players and staff that are released, traded (while eating part of the contract), or bought out.

      So that number accounts for Girardi (fired), Didi (released), players that we trade but still pay part of the salary for (like Gibson for the Rangers), and theoretically players like Segura (who we could buy out an option on).

      You’re correct that the number is wrong. I think what happened is they miss placed the decimal on Didi’s contract, taking it from 15.2M to 152M. He represents almost our entire retained payroll.

        1. Yeah, I started to write something else about Girardi and forgot to edit it all the way.

          Either way, their estimation for our retained salary is off by an order of magnitude.

  66. I know the Nationals are not regretting giving Patrick Corbin the money because he helped them get a title, but man, he has fallen off a cliff. 6 year deal, and he’s given the Nats 1 good year, 1 average year, and 2 bad years. And he’s still owed 2 years, ~$60M!

  67. Nice to see Moniak has already hit twice as many homers for the Angels as he hit for the Phillies! Hope he thrives there.

    1. Absolutely! Unfortunately he (MM) appears to have also gotten an injured finger in yesterday’s game – hopefully not serious.

      1. Moniak looks to be out for the season if the recovery timeframe is the same as Jean Segura when he fractured his finger..

  68. Romus……….I saw DD writing up in the suite. I think he wrote. I have too many infielders……and then…..dang that Hall looks good.

    1. When he puts the wood on the ball, it does seem to travel a good distance at a high velocity.

  69. speaking of “the ball traveling a good decent when wood is put on it”, it appears Darrin Ruf was traded to the Mets this past week

Comments are closed.