Phillies at the Halfway Point, 2022

The Phillies reached the All-Star break in third place in the NL East Division.  They have a 49-43 record and are 8.5 games behind the first-place NY Mets.  They trail second-place Atlanta by 6.0 games.  They are 5.5 games ahead of the fourth-place Miami Marlins.

First place in the division is not out of the question if the Phillies go on a streak and the teams ahead of them slip a little.  But, a wild card spot is their most likely road into the post-season.

The Phillies are currently holding the third wild card spot by .001 winning percentage point over the Cardinals.  They are 6.0 games behind Atlanta and 2.0 games behind San Diego.

Other than the Cardinals, the Giants are close behind, trailing by 0.5 games and tied in the loss column.  Their series sweep of the pesky Marlins dropped Miami to 5.5 games back.  The Rockies are hovering at 6.5 games back.  Arizona, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Cincinnati, and Washington are long shots or realistically out of contention.


MLB has replaced tie-breaking playoff games with a set of tie-breaking criteria.

  1. Head-to-head record
  2. Intradivision winning percentage
  3. Interdivision winning percentage
  4. Best record in the final 81 intraleague games of the season
  5. Best record in the final 82 intraleague games of the season (provided the game added is not between the tied teams), and continue one game back until the tie is broken
  6. Coin toss?

The Phillies have already won head-to-head against Milwaukee (4-2), St. Louis (4-3), Los Angeles (4-3), San Diego (4-3), and Colorado (5-2).

They are ahead of Arizona (2-1 with 3 to play), Miami (6-4 with 9 to play), and Washington (6-2 with 11 to play).

They trail New York (3-9 with 7 to play), Atlanta (3-4 with 12 to play), and SanFrancisco (1-2 with 3 to play).

They have 7 games each against the Pirates and Reds, and 6 against the Cubs.

They have a 2-game series against the Blue Jays in September and close the season with 3 games in Houston.

The Phillies’ division record is 18-19.  Their record against the other NL divisions is 24-16.  Their interleague record, which doesn’t matter in tie-breakers, is 7-8.


As a team, the rotation and the bullpen have been playing well.  The defense has looked better but there is still room for improvement.  The offense has been streaky as expected.  The loss of Jean Segura and Bryce Harper has hurt.  Matt Vierling has stepped forward and locked down the starting position in center field (or should have).  Alec Bohm is hitting better.  Didi Gregorius needs to be a little better as does JT Realmuto.  Bryson Stott is playing very solid defense.  Any offense is a bonus.  Nick Castellanos is a big surprise in a bad way.  He needs to pick it up at least until Harper returns.  Stubbs has been a pleasant surprise and might be under consideration for a return to the team next year.  Camargo and Munoz are solid players in the roles they have inherited.  And, Darick Hall has hit well enough to find a job on another team next season if/when a roster crunch squeezes him back to Triple-A.

They still look like an 85-86 win team.  We’ll see if Dave Dombrowski can make some additions to put them over the top.


Individually,

  • Harper was hitting .318 when he was injured
  • Segura was hitting .275 when he was injured
  • Bohm is hitting .276
  • Hall is hitting .262 with 4 HR in 16 games mostly at DH
  • Stubbs is hitting .262 with 10 RBI in 61 AB
  • Realmuto is hitting .252
  • Castellanos is hitting .252 with 8 HR (I honestly thought he was hitting lower)
  • Herrera is hitting .244
  • Hoskins is hitting .244 with 19 HR
  • Camargo is hitting .243
  • Gregorius is hitting .234
  • Vierling is hitting .231
  • Munoz is hitting .225
  • Schwarber is hitting .208 with 29 HR, 58 RBI, 52 BB, and 120 K
  • Stott is hitting .188 with 6 HR and 26 RBI
  • Wheeler has 99.2 IP with a 2.89 ERA, 22 BB, and 108 K
  • Nola has 126.2 IP with a 3.13 ERA, 16 BB, and 137 K
  • Suarez has 84.0 IP, with 4.07 ERA, 33 BB, 68 K
  • Gibson has 97.1 IP with a 4.35 ERA, 26 BB, 80 K
  • Eflin has 68.0 IP with a 4.37, 15 BB, 56 K
  • Nelson has 44.0 IP with a 4.09 ERA, 15 BB, 56 K
  • Knebel has 35.2 IP with a 3.03 ERA, 23 BB, 32 K, 12 S, 4 BS
  • Dominguez has 34.0 IP with a 1.85 ERA, 11 BB, 41K, 4 S, 1 BS
  • Bellatti has 30.2 IP with a 3.52 ERA, 13 BB, 46 K
  • Hand has 29.0 IP with a 2.17 ERA, 13 BB, 26 K, 4 S, 1 BS
  • Alvarado has 26.2 IP with a 4.39 ERA, 18 BB, 41 K
  • Brogdon has 18.2 IP with a 1.93 ERA, 5 BB, 21 K
  • Romero has 1.0 IP with a 0.00 ERA, 0 BB, 1 K
  • Familia has 30.0 IP with a 4.80 ERA, 13 BB, 30 K
  • Falter has 28.0 IP with a 4.82 ERA, 8 BB, 24 K
  • C. Sanchez has 23.2 IP with a 3.80 ERA, 9 BB, 18 K
  • Appel has 7.0 IP with a 1.29 ERA, 2 BB, 3 K
  • Morales has 3.0 IP with a 0.00 ERA, 4 BB, 3 K
  • M. Kelly has 4.0 IP with a 2.25 ERA, 1 BB, 4 K

If nothing else, this gives you a place to talk about the Phillies for the week.

221 thoughts on “Phillies at the Halfway Point, 2022

  1. Donny Sands (catcher) for AAA Iron Pigs is batting .348 and cams off injury in late June. Phillies need to pull him up and spark the offense.

    1. The Phillies are not bringing up Sands now to be the catcher/DH. He’s not starting ahead of JT and Hall has been fine as the DH. IF Sands comes up, it’s when the rosters expand in September. It definitely won’t be now.

  2. The drafting of Crawford tells me that Rojas becomes a prime trade piece by the deadline…and a starting pitcher is a target, especially with Eflin’s knee in doubt. The #3 is wide open, with Ranger and Gibson as solid #s 4 and 5.

    1. I would temper the enthusiasm a bit. Since our experience with high school OF’s is not all that good and our current experience 6 years in the making and another one gone. As I look at our ability to bring up OF’s or sign FA OF’s, we are found wanting. Our current RF costing a whole lot of $’s and a 2nd round pick to play a position he’s not particularly good at. Eflin IMO is damaged goods. Rojas, May well get traded, but Crawford has a lot to prove. He may have the bloodlines, but it’s not a free pass.

    2. There is just no way to know with any certainty whether or not Crawford is going to pan out. He’s at least 3 years away minimum.

      Years ago, I remember discussing on this board that Roman Quinn was going to be the heir apparent at SS. Somebody asked me how could I know. And you know what, I couldn’t know. Nobody knows. After that point, I stopped projecting and let the prospects speak for themselves. If they make it, they make it. All they have is an opportunity to show to the Phillies that they are viable ML players.

    3. I don’t believe the drafting of a player and the possibility of trading a prospect are ever related.

  3. So when Segura and Harper come back the Phillies will be adding two former all stars to the every day line up.

    Of the teams in the wild card race, are any teams in the position of adding two quality every day starters without sacrificing their minor league prospects?

    Two big “ifs”. If the the Phillies hold on until Harper gets back and if Eflin can contribute in 2nd half, the Phils will be a playoff team.

  4. I am hopeful for 88-89 wins. The Phillies have 31 games remaining against Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Chicago, and the Nats. 4 teams that are bad and likely to get worse as they dump talent for the trade deadline. Their schedule for the last 70 games is far easier than their first 92.

    The Phils have been beating the teams they’re supposed to beat so far this season. 10-4 combined against the Nats, A’s, and Arizona. If they continue to beat up on the bottom feeders of the NL, 88-89 wins is certainly within reach.

  5. As it has been for most of the recent seasons, a lot will depend on which GM does a better job at the deadline. DD needs to add a SP, a BP arm and, quite possibly another hitter. I think we have to assume a less than 100% healthy Eflin, so that becomes priority #1,a nd we always need BP help, although I have to give credit to RobT, who I think has done a very good job stabilizing the BP. If Nick Castellanos even hits what is average for him, that is a huge boost. I am not feeling great about Didi, and would consider moving Stott to SS for his D, and picking up another utility guy, who has some hitting ability, to play 2B. But, the way they have played the first half makes DD a buyer, and, hopefully, he gets it right.

    1. Disagree on the BP arm at this point. Their bullpen has really stabilized and if anything, they have an extra arm or two already.

      DD biggest focus needs to be on adding a quality starter because the Eflin situation doesn’t look promising at this point.

      Also, would help to find a bat who can play CF. Veirling hasn’t been terrible but he’s a better fit as a utility guy and doesn’t offer enough offense to be a regular.

  6. I think 6 games over .500 and in the wild card spot at the break is a very good outcome for a team with so many key injuries. And a great turnaround from the disaster under Girardi. Castellanos will hit. He will get hot. No concern there. Personally, I like Vierling in CF. He is productive and cheap. IMO, DD should get a closer (Hader?) and a player like Joey Wendle who can upgrade our SS position but also have flexibility to move around the IF. Someone made the comment that the Crawford pick makes Rojas more tradable and I agree.

  7. Coming out of the break we get 6 home games; 3 against the Cubs, 3 against the Braves and then we go on the road for 3 against the Pirates…

    Pirates by the way got the best player in the draft IMO Termarr Johnson. I love that kid.

  8. I’m one of the biggest supporters of Eflin on this site and have been from the day the Phillies got him in the trade from SD/LA. However, I believe it’s time to cut the cord and let him walk next year. There is a mutual option for $15M next season. That’s too steep. If they can sign him for 2/$20M, I’d consider that for sure.

    1. Same here. I’m a big fan of Efflin .. when he is on, he is a #2 pitcher imo. He’s reLly good… but he’s too close to the Quinn equivalent for a pitcher. Okay, maybe a quarter of the equivalent but even that is too much. I believe he pitches through a lot of pain at times Because he knows it’s a lot of injury time … especially this year .. since it’s a contract year. The fact he can’t, says a lot to me. I could be wrong obviously, but that’s my guy feeling. I’d do the same. Push through the pain this year, get the big contract then start telling the truth … yeah I’m a pos but id be a rich pos!

  9. I agree ciada. I have liked the way he has developed over the past few years. his stuff is really getting better. the only hold back is the knee. I’m just afraid if they get rid of him he will turn into a younger version of Charlie Morton with success.
    gm

    1. After all his surgeries, his knees are still giving him issues. The Phillies can’t continue going on like this. Not only that, in general, you don’t get healthier as you age. At this point, we’re not sure when he’ll be able to pitch this month. And we want to give him $15M for next year? Eflin needs to finish the year healthy AND effective first.

  10. gmw – Eflin has a couple of good games, then a couple of bad games. I guess that’s typical for an MLB #4-5 starter. The knees will probably always be giving him trouble.

  11. It stinks that these two things are both true at the same time. 1. Donnie Sands 100% should not only be in the Majors, but getting a chance of consistent at bats 2. There is no place on this team right now for Donnie Sands.

    Dudes just raking and Id love to see him get a shot, just dont see how it happens here without injury

    1. 100% correct. Sands only path to the Phillies this season is if Hall gets hurt or goes into a slump. Next season, he’s blocked at catcher (JT) and DH (Castellanos). He needs to be traded, that’s the way it goes. Marchan is more or less in the same boat.

    2. Yup. Sad for him. He’s done what he needs to do. We are just log jammed. Would love to trade him – if for no other reason than he deserves a shot!

    3. Donny Sands seems to have turned his approach around…..more contact and less need to lift for HRs.
      His ISO vs K/BB rate indicates with that change he can make himself into a very attractive prospect .
      The one caution flag….his BABIP….it is too high and due for some regression to normal.

  12. I know little about Crawford other than what can be learned from a few articles. He’s Carl’s son and pedigree is strongly correlated with success in athletics. SeemsToolsy but didn’t strike out much so I feel better about him than previous tooled up HS hitters. Tools are a great thing when combined with a good approach!
    I’ll be cheering for our newest prospect and believe that he will perform well. Hope I’m right!

  13. Sands, Marchan, O’Hoppe, we have Catchers that deserve a shot, and Catcher has always been a position of need around the league. I would have to think that one of them is a trade piece, and we can bring back some help without having to touch Painter and Abel, and probably not McGarry. A bigger return would probably require Griff and Rojas, but I am thinking more of what we can do without moving them.

    1. Haha we have 3 minor league catchers that deserve a shot while JTR needs a shot

  14. I also agree Rojas is now a potential trade
    Chip. With the OF & DH basically covered for the next few years (Harper,schwarber, Castellanos) it’s much easier to potentially see the Phillies promoting Abel, Painter, or McGarry… using their savings salary wise and then signing a FA to play center if really needed. I still have hope for Moniak but will see. Hard to believe his ST was a fluke .

    To me this is the next phase. Promote the pitching to keep the team salary low, sign the bat. In the meantime Rojas, O’Hoppe are likely trade candidates. I’m a fan of o’hoppe, but I don’t believe he survives the deadline if the team is in it for the last spot.

  15. There is absolutely no player in the organization who is off limits when it comes to a trade. Of course, a player with a no-trade clause would seem to be exempt from that statement. But, even an NTC can be bought out. Maybe.

    This does not mean that the Phillies are actually shopping their top players or prospects. But, anyone can be had in the right deal.

    Would you include Painter in a deal for one-and-a-half years Josh Hader? Or a closer who hasn’t had as bad a July as Hader has had? The Phillies might.

    1. I shutter to think DD would do that….

      I also don’t understand why the Brewers would entertain such a deal when they are in good shape to win their division and if they were interested in moving him I’d have to believe they know something others don’t.

      I’m actually hoping DD doesn’t do much of anything and let’s this thing play out.

    2. I understand that the Phillies are going for it, but I would like to think they won’t leave the farm system bare. As much as we want to win, a lot of things can derail us:

      2010 Phillies ran into Cody Ross
      2011 Phillies ran into Chris Carpenter

      Nobody could have predicted this. Hopefully the Phillies try to win AND keep an eye for the future.

    3. I would NOT trade Painter for Hader. I would trade McGarry and Rojas. But not Painter. Imo Painter is the best pitching prospect that we have had since Cole and maybe better.

      1. Agreed! It’s hard to overstate what a superb prospect Painter is and how bright is future may be. Painter has a chance to be a generational pitcher – like a multiple Cy Young award winner – that’s his ceiling and it’s not a crazy ceiling to imagine. If they re-drafted last year’s draft, you’d have to think he’d be in the top 2 or 3 picks. You don’t trade that guy. Period. He is as close to untouchable as they come.

        McGarry has great upside and so does Brown. In fact, I predict Brown will be in the major league rotation and holding his own by the middle of next year and I don’t think his trade value is that high, so he’s probably a guy you keep.

        This brings me to Abel. His ceiling is super high too. But his market value is high as well – much higher than McGarry’s. So, if you want to make a big trade, he’s the guy they would probably trade and you’d have to fight off the urge to include McGarry. That said, I think he’s our second or third best prospect. If you could do a trade and include Rojas instead of Abel, I wouldn’t hesitate for a moment. Rojas is a good prospect, but Abel’s a better prospect. As far as there being a redundancy among the pitchers, there isn’t one. It’s almost impossible to have too many good starting pitching prospects.

        1. Agree…..’ …..It’s almost impossible to have too many good starting pitching prospects.’….the reason for the acronym -TINSTAAPP..
          Hope Dave D can work his magic without letting go of any of the Phillies top tier minor league pitchers.
          When Klentak moved minor leaguer Sixto in the JTR trade, I thought that could come back and haunt the Phillies, so far …. not as bad as I thought it could be.

          1. Agreed. I will admit that I was concerned when JTR hit FA. But he resigned here so it was fine even if Sixto became a stud. But Sixto becoming an injured bust makes the trade a home run.

  16. Why talk about potential trade chips? I think if this team makes upgrades, it will be very marginal ones like in 2008. This is the first year with a new direction for the minors. Painter, Abel, Brown, and McGarry have all responded well and so have a few position players. I think their value can only go up. Thomson has these guys playing well and has done a great job managing the bullpen.

    They do need a #5 starter. I like Kelly from ARZ, Quintana from PIT, and Greinke as candidates in that order. None of those pitchers would cost a lot at all (Greinke actually has negative value). Hopefully Eflin could prove to be a good longman for the rest of the year. I think he would be good as a 7th/8th inning arm for next year. His knees have to be able to hold up as a reliever right? I don’t see him getting any offers as a starter.

    Bard from COL would be a nice target as a closer and also cheap. Mantiply, Chafin, and Stratton would nice cheap additions if they really need it in the BP. Brooks Raley is also intriguing.

    This is a team that has Wheeler and Nola and a roster that could get very hot. Who knows what happens in the postseason as has been proven many times in the past.

    I’m all in on Turner for ss next year. Stott can take 2b. Bohm has shown signs of being a full time 1st division starter. Hall can have 1b. It’s not the worst thing in the world for Vierling and Moniak to battle for time in cf. I really want Segura on this team next year but there is no room. It will suck to see Rhys gone but there has to be cheap position players somewhere and hopefully the arms will start getting really cheap after next year (aside from Nola and Wheeler).

    Thank you Jim for the write up on Hall and everything else you do.

    1. Somebody is going to give Eflin a shot as a starter even if it’ll be for a lot less money. There’s absolutely no way that Eflin comes back to the Phillies next season as a reliever. None.

    2. ‘I’m all in on Turner for ss next year’…he along with Correa, assuming he opts out……will be costly.
      At least $26/27M AAV for Turner and $30M plus for Correa.
      I am starting to like Dansby Swanson…..I just do not think the Braves want to go 5 plus years at $22/23M AAV with him..
      He may not come with the same cache as Correa or Turner…but he has been on a winner and knows what it takes to win in the play-offs.

  17. Predictions for the Second Half:

    1. The playoff drought ends
    2. The Phils enter the playoffs with the strongest bullpen in the league.
    3. Eflin does not throw a pitch after the All Star Break
    4. By September 1, Vierling is the everyday CF and lead off hitter.
    5. DD trades a major league position player of significance before the deadline and a top 5 prospect but not in the same deal.
    6. Rob Thomson is named permanent manager the day after the Phillies clinch a playoff berth.
    7. Aaron Nola goes undefeated in the month of September.
    8. Jose Alvarado is so bad by September that he’s left off the postseason roster.
    9. JoJo Romero is so great that he ends up being the 8th inning guy in September and October.
    10. Mickey Moniak makes the post-season roster and makes a big contribution as a bench player.

    1. They can make the salaries work. If Rhys is in the package, and they don’t re-sign Didi and Segura next year, that’s $34m AAV savings.

      You move Schwarber to 1B, Castellanos to DH when Bryce comes back. So OF is Bryce, Vierling and Soto. IF is Bohm, Camargo, Stott and Schwarber and JT.

      That’s crazy. So the math could work. So what’s your best package?

      1. V1 when you review the current Phillies team and then factor in the most likely prospects to graduate from the Minors to the team, as well as players most likely to leave in the reasonably near future due to contract or decline…. where, positionally, would you think it is best to focus much of the team’s resources? Several people above in this comment stream seem to suggest they would be “all in” on a shortstop, but what do you think?

        1. We definitely need an upgrade over Didi. But I believe in Stott. But really it is about getting great players and there are few better than Soto. It is a very rare opportunity. And I would be all in if I was DD. I would trade the farm. Pick any 6 guys + Rhys. I would include Bohm too. But u don’t think that would be enough unless there were few bidders given contract demands.

          1. I personally would not invest more resources in the outfield. While I also saw the comment RBM cites below, I’m not sure even that desire by Turner would be enough, and that the best option is to trade for a great prospect before they have an established track record of success. Trading “any 6 guys” likely means significant effort and time and resources to rebuild a pitching pipeline.

          2. I don’t think WAS would trade Soto to The Phillies even if it’s the best deal. Here’s why. The owner, has a rivalry with Middleton, and 2 he is (possibly) selling the team. So he can be spiteful… that’s said …

            A perineal MVP candidate, young .. in his prime … it’s going to hurt

            Abel
            Rojas
            O’Hoppe
            Bohm
            Hoskins (for the money to work)
            Moniak

            Might need to swap out some players for Sir A

            Or

            Painter
            Sir A
            Hoskins
            Bohm
            And Rojas
            Moniak for replacement now

            I haven’t been giving it a lot of thought because I don’t believe WAS will take The Phillies offer seriously. It’s guys the team for sure

            1. Dodgers beat guy predicts a Soto trade to Dodgers would take only prospects from the Dodgers farm
              1. RHP Bobby Miler
              2 catcher Diego Cartaya, if the Nats want him or move on him in a third party deal
              3. OFer Jose Ramos
              4. Pitchers one of Pepiot or Knack
              5. Position players..one of either Pages or Busch

              Personally I think Rizzo would want Lux ilo of Pages or Busch

            2. Romus, if that’s truly the offer, then the Phillies can beat that if they are willing to part with both Painter and Abel. A hefty price for sure, but Soto is so elite. Imagine this lineup:
              1. Schwarber
              2. Soto
              3. Harper
              4. Castellanos
              5. JTR
              6. Bohm
              7. Vierling
              8. Camargo
              9. Stott

            3. That would be a monster lineup…..loaded with hitters
              But giving up both Painter and Abel…..along with, I am sure other prospects of note, is a tough call for the GM

    2. It’s not possible for the Phils to trade for Soto because they don’t have the value to get him. The Cards could get him without even giving up Walker and still have ammo to get a high velocity SP. Watch Soto end up with the Dodgers tho geez.

      Bohm, Stott, Abel, and Painter would have to be on the table for the Phils to be close to getting Soto along with the Nats dumping Corbin on the Phils and it still wouldn’t work.

      1. Correct check these out:
        Soto Trade Proposals: The Score

        Padres ….Nats receive: P Mackenzie Gore, IF Jake Cronenworth, OF Robert Hassell III, IF/OF C.J. Abrams, C Luis Campusano

        Yankees …Nats receive: IF Gleyber Torres, SS Anthony Volpe, SS Oswald Peraza, OF Jasson Dominguez, P Ken Waldichuk

        Blue Jays …Nats receive: SS Bo Bichette, C Gabriel Moreno, P Ricky Tiedemann, IF Jordan Groshans, P Nate Pearson

        Phillies would be hard pressed to beat these.

      2. It all depends on what the Nationals want. Imo elite pitching prospects are more valuable than elite hitting prospects. I would not trade Painter for Walker.

        Also I highly doubt St Louis would pay Soto $500m. I may be wrong, but I doubt it.

        Dodgers, SD, either NY team or Whitesox are bidders.

  18. I read yesterday that Trea Turner wants to play on the east coast again. Perfect fit for the Phillies.

    1. So I wonder how much $$$$$AAV?
      Didi’s contract is gone ($14M)…and if Dave D can move both Segura ($14M) and Hoskins ($10M)….then it is well in range to get him. And enough for their other 40 obligations.

      Hoskins based on this years production so far, can be moved easily…Segura based on both his age and contract may take some creativity.

      1. Imagine (unlikely but) Soto and Turner on the Phillies with Harper … lol how pissed off would you be as a die hard nats fan (if there is such a thing 🙂

        That would burn .. that would be like watching Rollins, Utley, and Howard in a Nats uniform … and it’s technically possible right now.

        1. I don’t see, in any universe, Nats GM Rizzo dealing Soto to the Phillies, who probably don’t have what it takes to get him anyway…if it took Rojas, Abel, O’Hoppe, Miller and McGarry, I would do it, but too many other clubs can beat that. I’m not trading Painter.

          1. Personally, I kind of hope he goes to The Angels. Baseball really needs Trout and Ohani in playoffs. Adding Soto .. would create a buzz baseball needs. Probably doesn’t match up but .. would be where I’d like him to go if not Philly.

            I’d like Soto… but I they’d probably want Castellanos imo, if he doest has a no trade clause, painter, McGarry, Sir A, Rojas, and O’Hoppe .

    2. I see Dombrowski going hard after Trea Turner, declining Jean Segura’s overpriced ’23 option, although he’s been an overall good player, and allowing Stott to settle at 2b. Rhys Hoskins will be traded this winter. A much cheaper Darick Hall will be given the opportunity to claim 1b. After thinking for some time now that Aaron Nola would be moved eventually as his contract nears its D day, I am more inclined to think the Phillies will attempt to extend him, and the young stud arms like Painter, McGarry and Abel (if he’s not traded, which I think is more likely) emerge from the farm to fill out an excellent starting rotation as an older Wheeler’s term here nears its end. Centerfield remains the major void as of now. I like Vierling a lot as a utility player. CF needs an offensive, top of the lineup catalyst who is defensively above average. Let’s not leave any part of the roster short at a time when winning is imperative while the core of the team is intact.

        1. I see them wanting to resign Nola, I just get the sense that he will want out. If they miss the playoffs this year … definitely going to want out.
          So hopefully it happens. If Efflin could have stayed healthy, I’d see that diffidently

          Hoskins is expendable now Imo. With Schwarber, Realmuto, Bohm.. and even Hall now. Trading him makes a lot of sense to help improve the defense. Let Segura and Didi go.. sign tuner … they start to fix the defense, keeping the offense top
          Tier. Praying DD can hold out until these SP prospects can break through

          1. Nola in 2023 (his age30 season) is under contract if the Phillies want him to stay…it is their option.
            He leads the team in WAR this season so far, so they probably will keep him around….however, if they want him in 2024 and beyond, they probably need to extend him a long term offer this off-season,

            1. I think Nola would give the Phillies a small discount, but don’t get me wrong, he’s going to get paid. The Phillies will obviously pick up the option. He doesn’t really rely on a power fastball so you figure he’ll be able to sustain his production even if his fastball dips. Nola will be a FA at age 31. Stroman, at age 31, got 2 years $50M and a player option. Nola should easily beat this. As long as Nola gives the Phillies 3 WAR next season, he should get minimum 4 years, $100M or a 5 year, $120M. I would rather give him 4 years, I’m ok with 5, but definitely not 6 years.

            2. I think Nola gets extended this offseason – he will get an extension that looks something like what Wheeler got. As far as Wheeler is concerned, he’s 32 now and under contract for the next 2 years – given his age and velocity concerns, I think you just let that situation play out.

              As for our minor leaguers, I can pretty much guarantee that we have never had a group of young starting pitchers at one level the group we had at JS when McGarry was there. I saw McGarry pitch his last start in Wilmington and, while he has a way to go with command/control, he clearly was the most talented righty power pitcher I’ve ever seen in person in our system. The crazy thing is that he might be the third or fourth best of that group.

              As far as I can tell Painter is probably our one untouchable prospect. He has a wipe out curve and 98-99 MPH FB that he commands. His ceiling is insanely high. I agree that at least one of Painter, Abel, McGarry and Brown gets traded. My guess is that it’s Abel, but we will see.

            3. Yeah…… 5 year, $120M sounds reasonable.
              Agree with you…a sixth year is not a good idea……unless it is strictly a club/team option, with perhaps a $1M or $2M buy-out.

  19. just seeing the earlier comments now and Jim, responding to you, I do not trade Painter at all. and really balk on trading Abel. they have to start bringing up younger hurlers for the rotation. both of them have very high potential. it seems that alot of people have dropped their expectations for Abel and moved Painter ahead of him. not sure that it is true. keep the arms. wouldn’t have Porter made a great addition to the stable? it could have happened if they had not lost the slot money for the 2nd round pick.
    gm

    1. First, Painter is definitely ahead of Abel. Painter is younger than Abel at JS, and Painter’s numbers are better. Even the prospect rankings bear this out.

      I do want the Phillies to keep Painter and Abel. Pitching is expensive and you need to save money somewhere.

      Signing Castellanos meant losing the second round pick. Were you not ok with this? I was 50/50 on the signing. I thought it would have been better to move Bohm/Hoskins to DH. But Castellanos has a lifetime .800+ OPS so losing the 2nd round pick didn’t bother me much.

      1. To further your point Guru not only is pitching expensive and getting more so by the day it also spends more time on the IL…

        Rather than try to acquire it on the open market I’d much prefer to draft it or build a solid farm system so we can acquire when needed as we did in the cases of Lee and Doc

  20. I do believe Dave Dombrowski is all in (to a certain point) this season. He’s probably going to make an impactful transaction in the next couple of weeks. It’s probably going to be for a SP with maybe a reliever or bench bat included. I don’t believe he would trade Painter or Abel in a deadline deal. IMO, McGarry is possible, but unlikely. I do think Rojas could go, and not because they just drafted Justin Crawford (the two things would have no connection). After Painter and Abel, Rojas is their most prized trade chip. He’s young enough and toolsy enough to hold real value. And Matt Vierling is fine in CF for this team (don’t need a superstar there) at this time.
    The other thing is this: Dombrowski is more realistically “all in” on making the playoffs while teams like the Yankees, Astros, Mets Braves, Dodgers, and even the Padres are “all in” on winning the WS. That means the Phillies POBO is probably going to be less likely to give up the farm (outbid those other clubs) … especially for a rental piece. So I would expect Dombrowski/Fuld to deal lower level prospects for a lesser rental or trade a guy like Rojas, O’Hoppe, and/or Brown for a player(s) who are under team control for at least 1.5 years (think Howard/Gowdy/Gessner for Gibson/Kennedy/Crouse).

    And as far as offseason FA targets … I suspect Nathan Eovaldi will be the apple of Dave Dombrowski’s eye.

    1. There’s no doubt that there will be room for Eovaldi in the rotation. But Eovaldi will be 33, and he has own share of injury issues. He made 13 starts this season, same as Eflin. Eovaldi had 32 starts last season, but it’s looking like an outlier season. I’m assuming that Eovaldi is looking for a multl year deal. Giving him even a 3 year deal would be risky.

  21. Here’s a look at the betting odds on where Soto will be playing after the August 2 trade deadline…..of course, Mets sitting on top.

    New York Mets +400
    New York Yankees +500
    San Francisco Giants +550
    Los Angeles Dodgers +600
    Toronto Blue Jays +600
    St. Louis Cardinals +700
    Seattle Mariners +750
    Boston Red Sox +900
    Houston Astros +1,000
    Atlanta Braves +1,200
    Philadelphia Phillies +1,200
    San Diego Padres +1,200
    Chicago White Sox +1,400
    Los Angeles Angels +1,400
    Odds as of July 19, 2022.

    1. What’s the argument that the Nats would trade Soto to Mets but not the Phillies? Because of Harper? I don’t buy it. I think they want the best value. Whomever’s trade offer is the best value will get Soto.

      Imo, there is no team that can offer 2 SP prospects as good as Painter and Abel. There are teams that can offer a SP prospect better than either of them. But not 2 as good.

      1. I am with you on that….Rizzo will want more than Painter and Abel, outside of catching, he has Ruiz, he probably would want a top middle infielder and a top OFer…..maybe Rojas could work in that slot for him.

        I think the darkhorse in a trade, are the Giants…they have the money and they do have some prospects that may interest Rizzo…thier top 5…2 pitchers and two OFers and a middle infielder.

      2. New York Yankees (+500)
        “Both the Mets and Yankees are expected to pursue a Soto trade, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. So if the Mets ultimately balk at the asking price or Mike Rizzo elects not to deal within the division, Soto’s path to New York City may go through the Bronx. And it wouldn’t be out of the question for the Nationals to require two, if not all, of the Yankees’ top three prospects: shortstop Anthony Volpe, shortstop Oswald Peraza, and 19-year-old outfielder Jasson Dominguez…..”

        ….I see Rizzo wanting pitching also…they all do…..Yankees do not have any pitchers in their system with the likes of Painter/Abel or McGarry….at their youthful ages also.

    2. I’d put a few dollars on Soto playing for the Nationals after August 2. IMO, a transaction as humungous as this, would more likely be made in the offseason. But … yeah, Mike Rizzo would be crazy not to test the waters. You never know what a team desperate for a championship might offer.

      1. I agree and its doubtful that a deal only includes prospects. Rizzo is going to return a solid MLB player in any deal as well…

  22. Tough call … Soto is only 23, so you get him for his prime years. 3 questions I have …

    1- with Painter & Abel’s ceiling, do you believe they help the Phillies win more over the next 4-5 years or does Soto?
    2- Sixto & Howard (before he got hurt) vs Painter & Abel … who was/is the better combo to have ? (Answer as if … they were all still prospects)
    3- Do Soto & Harper get along?

    All stuff id need to know before swallowing that pill .. and obviously a long term deal needs to be done before any trade.

    Soto is a great player, but I feel that the sheer cost of acquiring him & his % of the team salary really negates some things … but having

    Schwarber,Harper, and Soto in a lineup … that’s 3 clutch bats, and really 4 once castellanos finally turns it on. Just crazy to give up both Abel & Painter .

    1. Tac….just remember Dave D pulled off the trade for a young Miggy way back when….his finger is always on the trigger, safety is off and gun is loaded.
      This would not be a ‘play it safe’ Matt Klentak moment.

    2. Point 3 is a good point. Normally, there is only one homecoming queen. No matter, I think he is destined for the Big Apple and our pesos will be spent on a ss and I hope it is Turner.

        1. No matter that the Phillies were not able to develop Pivetta, Papelbon for him was still SUCH an awesome trade!

  23. 2 random thoughts from last night’s All-star game:
    1. It is remarkable how much money we have spent on international FAs and how we have not had one significant success on any of our big money signings. All of our International FA success has been in minimum guys, Sixto, Seranthony, etc. there were so many elite international guys signed for big contracts and we payed more for other guys and all were busts. But there were also a lot of big signings by other clubs that were busts too. Just found it interesting
    2. I was very impressed by the relief pitchers. Absolute flame throwers. With exceptional command and stuff. Just elite stuff. Really popped out at me.

    1. Phillies may be one club that would benefit from a draft….they certainly cannot hit HRs with a bag load of cash to generate an impact future international star.up till now
      Though I am getting a different and more satisfyingly feel for their Australian/New Zealand/Taiwan scouting and evaluation efforts.

  24. Yet Sal A appears to be an untouchable. I was talking about our lack of progress in DR/VEN last night with my wife and son. Telling my son that we spent $4.1 million for a guy in AA while the Braves spent $100,000 for Acuna my son says “that doesnt make sense”……..each day he becomes more a Phillies fan with the confusion of it all.

  25. E5 – Step in immediately and save the boy from a world of hurt, anger, and frustration. Do it for him now. End it. After all, you are his father.

  26. With a record of 27-14 (.659) at the helm since Joe Girardi was let go, manager of the year candidate Rob Thomson has the Phillies on pace to win 95 games. Let’s all agree that won’t happen BUT how about 90 W’s? That should certainly be enough to get into the October dance. And with Segura and Harper due to return, along with whatever trade deadline additions are made, AND a relatively favorable schedule, the Phillies have little excuse for falling short, sans their defensive liabilities.

    1. Like yuo say…the schedule does appear in their favor starting Friday.
      So you never know how many wins are there for them to take..
      Nola interests me…he has had a good rest at the break now….he does well with a good rest period….it will be the Sept that awaits for him.

  27. TRADE DEADLINE PREDICTION

    Scouring through MLBTR’s top 50 trade candidates (based on likelihood moreso than value), I see Dave Dombrowski making two key additions…LHP Martin Perez from Texas, and super utility guy Brandon Drury from Cincinnati – both are free agents at season’s end. The Phillies will probably go with Vierling & Co in CF for the rest of 2022. Then DD will target Trea Turner, with the proviso that he agrees to play CF, what with Stott penciled in at SS for the time being. I also see Didi saying bye-bye by Aug 2, either via trade or outright release.

    1. Who do you see wanting Didi within the next week or so in a trade?
      Now, the Phillies will have already paid approx $9M of his $14M salary, so that may help in being a carrot for another team who may need a shortstop right away and a rental of two-months for $5M..

      1. I tend to think he’s released, but he might be included in a larger trade…I can’t speculate which team would want him. And the Phillies probably won’t be trading with a contender who could use him as a bench player…unless it’s the Yankees in a package for Gallo, maybe?

        1. Upon further consideration, how about…

          To the PHILLIES:
          OF/IF Joey Gallo

          To the YANKEES:
          RHP Francisco Morales
          RHP Christian McGowan (currently on 60 day IL)
          OF Mickey Moniak
          SS Didi Gregorius (salary dump, as a bench player for NYY)

          1. Bingo……Yankee fans would do that in a heartbeat.
            Phillies…they get another Vegas guy.
            I think Gallo wants out of New York.

          2. Where is Joey Gallo supposed to play? The last time Gallo played the IF was 1B in 2018. He played 1 game in CF this season and before that, you need to go to 2020 where he again played 1 game in CF. He hasn’t played multiple games in CF since 2019. And yes, he’s a big LH bat, but isn’t that what the Phillies have in Darick Hall? Joey Gallo adds minimal value to the Phillies.

          3. I don’t want Gallo or the baggage so why go to the bother, doesn’t mean anything.

          4. No way. Why on earth would the Phillies gift the Yankees a very solid prospect (Morales) and another guy who might develop (Moniak) for a guy who is a net negative – meaning he is not earning his salary? I get the exchange of dead salaries with him and Gregorious, but aside from that, he commands something like a C level prospect and certainly nobody with as much upside as Morales.

            And, by the way, I’m not against them taking a flyer on Gallo, who they could put in right and bump Castellanos to DH (the improvement in defense is enough to make the gamble worthwhile and if Gallo gets hot, it would be great), I’m just against sending B level prospects in a trade for a guy who, currently, is a net negative, is finished with his contract this year, and has very questionable prospects moving forward.

    2. Martin Perez is going to be a very coveted pitcher on the market. You might have to give up somebody like Griff McGarry for him. Do you really want to do that?

      What’s the point of getting Drury? Sure, he can hit but his defense is not great and where’s he supposed to play? Bohm has been heating up, Stott has improved, Segura will be coming back soon. The only serious opening is at CF and Drury hasn’t played that at all this season.

  28. Word out that Michael Conforto has gotten calls since the draft is over and there’s no loss of picks to sign him. Supposedly 4 teams including the Jays have interest. Does DD? Risky? Yes, but not as far as giving up any prospects.

    1. mark8;29…….he has not had a spring training….so it will be awhile before he will be able to really ‘bust it’
      Then what do you do with him when Harper is ready to come back?
      With Gallo, though it will be very difficult finding a spot for him on the field and Thomson would need to be creative to be able to pull that off…….., he is at least in baseball shape.

    2. I really like Conforto, but it would have to be a pro rated deal for the balance of the season – sort of a mini-pillow contract. The team’s salary structure really does not allow for another mega outfield contract. But signing Conforto just for the rest of the year, would be an enormous coup.

  29. Matt, Hinkie, Vi, and Romus. Just quick bit on kids. Grandkid team in final tourney of Summer at Grand Park. Began today. Over 300 teams. Team has been decimated by injuries the last few weeks. Began with 15 kids but 2 really good decided no go at beginning. Since Nashville in Mid-June, one had hernia surgery, another collided with another player. Major shoulder injury. Another injured knee in Cincy. Another a back issue that has missed most of season. At one point won 10 or 11 and made final of large tourney. Grandson now basically only pitches when they try to hold a lead. They were 16-9. Now 18-16-2. Just trying to make it to the weekend now. Grandson still has had great Summer. He is now at 36 IP, 5 ER, and 5-2. They have had to play a couple times with 8. Today they had as the NFL calls it 2 street free agents to get through the games. But I told my daughter that they should be proud. Kids have hung in there and gave their best. A few of the recent games have been 1 run games where just not enough pitching depth to get them over the top. Lots of schools in Indiana start going back soon so this is the swan song on the tourney trail for now. Thanks to all of you who have made nice comments about the kids.

    BTW Romus I am taking grandson tomorrow to the park in Kokomo for his game where I played against Tommy Underwood back in the day. It has been renovated and the Kokomo Jack Rabbits play there now. I am not sure if they are independent or affiliated with a team.
    This will be my first time to see him play since before Nashville in mid-June.

    1. Don53…..enjoy all these wonderful times now. They seem to go by pretty fast.
      And it is hard to believe all the injuries to all the kids along the way. Good thing baseball is a non-contact support!
      And hope your daughter is filming a lot of the action for later viewing around family events. Have fun Don

    2. What a great summer it has been, Don, and I really appreciate hearing how it has gone. Cherish these times with your Grandson, and I look forward to hearing how his school season goes.

      1. Don … win or lose, you’re sharing a lifetime of great memories with your grandson (and your entire family). Happy for you. Enjoy it!

  30. Look for Jhailyn Ortiz to get a call-up to LHV soon….his last 20 games he is slashing…. 301/.400/.480….throw out chilly April and he would be overall doing very well. (BA .272)
    Once 2nd half resumes Iron Pigs will have approx 60 games left…..would not surprise me if Preston M. promotes Ortiz this weekend.

    1. Romus – I hear you, I guess it depends on whether he’s just hot or they see he’s made some real long-term adjustments.

      I also agree with another poster that Ortiz is, pretty much by far, our most frustrating prospect. His performance has never been great – aside from small stretches and he has periods where he’s not good at all. But if you’ve ever seen him play in person or on tv, you get why he hangs around. The underlying talent and bat speed are exceptional. His upper most ceiling is something like Nelson Cruz, so they have every reason to give him an opportunity to succeed. They will have a hard decision this winter on whether to keep him on the 40-man. If they think they can’t do that, they may want to keep him in AA, just to hide him more effectively.

      And, it’s now also time to pay attention to Donny Sands. Sands is not only hitting for a high average, he’s drawing a ton of walks and walks just as frequently as he strikes out. It’s easy (and lazy) to write him off as an old non-prospect but he’s 26 and is within the back end of the prospect time window. If he keeps hitting over the next week or so, I find some way to give this guy a chance in the big leagues.

      1. Yeah that was me on Ortiz LOL

        I’d doubt it would be enough but would like to see Sands to the Cubs for Happ. They no doubt are going to trade Contreras so will need a hold over catcher and they don’t really have any Catchers in their system…

        1. DMAR…….agree,
          Sands to the Cubs and they will want some pitching to go along I am sure…maybe Erik Miller and/or Francisco Morales.
          Heck….we have only got burned twice by the Cubs in the past, ….Ferguson Jenkins and Ryne Sandberg…….no way we get burned a third time. 😉

      2. Catch22 – I agree. I saw Sands play at the Railriders (Yankees triple a) last year and he was electric. I looked up his history and it is amazing. His background and struggle to get to where he is left me inspired. When he gets a shot at the big leagues, he will be a positive force that reminds us why we love baseball! Go Sands!

      3. Ortiz thru out his career has been a ‘tease’.
        great moments , then those slumps.
        He turns 24 this fall….time for him to do it, as the expression goes, or get off the pot. I think he knows the score
        If he can do well at LHV when his time comes to go up, chance is he may be taken in the Rule 5 and have an opportunity with another team.

      4. I wonder about Sands because he’s not really hitting for a lot of power, so a huge part of his value is coming from the BA. I’m not sure that’s going to fly in the MLB, but I hope he gets a shot. If he has trade value, he’d be a chip I’d look to move.

        1. Actually, it’s not just BA – it’s OBP. He has extremely high walk rates and very moderate strikeout rates. That, to me, is as much of a predictor of major league success as anything else. And it’s not like he has no power. Last year he had 18 homers in less than 100 games. He’s the guy nobody pays attention to and then becomes a serious contributor at the major league level. If he keeps it up, he deserves a chance because the guy has shown some serious offensive skills.

          1. The BB and K numbers are very strong, but a lot of his OBP is still coming from the batting average and he’s rocking a .400 BABIP. Like Romus said there’s some regression that’s inevitable. Even if there’s power there, can he bring that back while keeping the K% low and the BB% high? Or are they mutually exclusive?

  31. If I correctly recall, when the team broke camp, Sands was injured. They brought Stubbs north for a couple of reasons besides the Sands injury. Stubbs bats left to compliment Realmuto and to have a lefty off the bench. Also, from what I’ve read, Stubbs is a much better receiver than Sands.

  32. PHILLIES PLAYOFF ODDS AT THE HALFWAY MARK

    ESPN … 69%
    Fangraphs … 45.2%
    Baseball Reference … 73.9%
    FiveThirtyEight … 66%

    1. Amazing how BR and Fangraphs can be so far apart!
      I have to think Fangraphs believes without Harper and Segura the Phillies will just not be able to stay in it.

  33. I think we have the prospects, without trading Painter, Abel or Griff McGarry, to add help at the deadline, which is now less than 2 weeks away. I think a SP has replaced the BP as #1 on the needs list, due to my belief that we cannot count on a healthy Eflin. I am not talking about a Justin Verlander, but a SP that will definitely help. There might be another hitter and another BP arm as well, but the ammunition that DD adds will have a great impact on whether Fangraphs or BR is correct.

    1. matt13:
      Here are the ones on the trading block as of now…..some can be costly.
      Some not so much.

      Chad Kuhl, RHP, Rockies
      Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Diamondbacks
      Michael Pineda, RHP, Tigers
      Michael Fulmer, RHP, Tigers
      Jose Quintana, LHP, Pirates
      Tyler Mahle, RHP, Reds
      Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers
      Frankie Montas, RHP, A’s
      Luis Castillo, RHP, Reds

      1. Who would offer Rojas and Abel to the Reds for Castillo? And would the Reds do it if we took Moustakas and his bloated contract, with club buyout after ’23?

        1. I think if Eflin was out for the year, you could see the Phillies seriously go after one of the big ones. Rojas and Abel for Castillo is a fair offer, but I think some other teams will be able to beat that offer. I think the Phillies are interested but I don’t get the sense that they will go all in yet.

          1. The guy on that list who is most realistic is Martin Perez. Would you trade Christopher Sanchez, Simon Muzziotti, and Jean Cabrerra for 2 months of Perez?

            1. I would, but I think the offer is too light. Muzziotti is a throw in and Cabrera is a mid-range lotto ticket. So it’s basically Sanchez for Perez and Perez has to be the 3rd best option on that list. The Rangers won’t do that deal.

            2. Muzziotti and Cabrerra are tier 2 prosoects. The Rangers may get a better offer, but IMO this is the type of return they’ll most likely get for 12 starts from Perez.
              Would you trade Cabrerra with one of Ben Brown/Erik Miller/Bailey Falter for a dozen starts by Perez?

            3. @Hinkie, Muzziotti is 23 at AA and he has career minor league OPS of .658, which is not too far from what his current OPS is at Reading. He’s not producing and I’ll tell you this, every team has a Simon Muzziotti in their farm system.

              Jean Cabrera came stateside and is now getting a rude awakening. Could he get better? Sure, but he’s a long, long way off.

              Sanchez has promise, but if a team thinks he’s more suited to be a reliever (I’m one of those people), this package won’t get it done.

              I’ve said it before, you have to give talent to get talent, and that usually means that the package needs to hurt the farm system. That package doesn’t hurt the Phillies at all.

            4. Guru … what exactly do you think a dozen starts from Martin Perez would cost Dave Dombrowski?
              I’m not telling you I know for sure what he’ll go for, but w/o you posting a specific return, I under the impression you are envisioning Texas gets the the moon. Recent history tells a different story. Over the last 5 years, there are only a handful of rentals who have actually been dealt midseason. One of the main reasons for that is because clubs felt getting a draft pick (thru the QO) was worth more than the offers they were receiving.
              Go look at the returns for Andrew Heaney, Tyler Anderson (a pretty good comp), Mike Minor, Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, Nathan Eovaldi, and Cole Hamels. They’re not all perfect comps. Most of these SPs weren’t having the half-season Perez has had, but most (maybe all) had better careers/track records (some by a long shot) at the time of their trades.
              If you want a really good case study, look no further than Kyle Gibson. Gibson’s situation was almost identical to Martin Perez’s. They both were throwing for the Rangers, and having all-star seasons that were far and away greater than anything else they had ever authored/outliers. The difference is Gibson came with an extra year of control (47 starts instead of 12 starts). The Phillies gave up a failing top prospect (Spencer Howard) & two non-top 40 other kids. Dombrowski not only got back the 1.5 years of Gibson, but he also received Ian Kennedy (Rangers closer who would have brought back a couple of tier 2 prospects if dealt separately), and Hans Crouse (Rangers #7 prospect).

              I’m not guaranteeing anything. And what you are expecting may end up being closer to Perez’s value than what I’m envisioning. I’m just pointing out what rental SPs have recently brought back. Maybe something like Jean Cabrerra and one of Francisco Morales/Bailey Falter gets it done. We’ll see.

      2. Romus, based on the cost of Castillo, Montas and Perez being the highest, I am thinking more like Mahle or, maybe, Quintana.

        1. matt…yeah…..I like Mahle..until just recently was a very serviceable starter and avoided the IL…at least the 60 day IL.
          Career FIP a tick below career ERA.
          Less hits per innings pitched and very inexpensive.
          And not looking for him to be a top of the rotation guy…so he should eat innings and still produce, if he gets some run support behind him.
          I do not see the Reds asking for an arm and leg also…castillo is the guy they will do that with.

          https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mahlety01.shtml

          1. Agree, Romus. Tyler Mahle also makes a lot of sense for the Phillies. He’s under team control thru next season. Could replace one of Gibson or Eflin in 2023.

    2. Forgot….Nats will also trade LHP Patrick Corbin….with Juan Soto as their preferred duo-dealing

      1. I think to myself is this something the Astro’s might be able to pull off? a solid package to give Dusty his first ever WS in the next couple of years with Soto’s years of control.

        They swept the Yankees in a Double Header last night and have to be feeling this could be their year.

        With regard to Perez yeah I want him but I’m not going to hurt my farm system at this point for a rental. It be different if we were on pace to win 100+ games but essentially our everyday LU is in such disarray my crystal ball says Wild Card is what we are looking at.

        Now Castillo who you would have for the rest of this season and all of next yeah I might feel a little pain for that.

        1. Astros could very well pull off a Soto trade and bring a WS ring to Dusty..
          They were able to let big ticket guys go like Correa, Springer, Greinke ..and all the while, still stay at the top.
          Altuve seems to be the lone holdover from the original team that turned it around in 2015.

          Castillo will probably be a high cost long term contract guy after next season.
          Can the Phillies afford three of those guys in the rotation?

          1. Probably not Romus. I think we are saving what (assuming we aren’t bringing these guys back)

            Didi-$15.25 Milllion
            Segura-$14.85 Million
            Eflin-$5.5 Million
            Gibson $7.6 Million

            That’s close to $43 million before arb raises

            You’re gonna fill either SS or 2B with Stott (Trea Turner???)

            And then you have to look at Nola’s deal

            1. Then there will be Wheeler after 2024….if he keeps going at his current pace, they may look to extend him an additional three years after next season,….’24 plus 3 years.

            2. It’s going to be an interesting offseason. Losing 2 starters from the rotation is no joke. Do the Phillies have confidence in Sanchez and Falter? If not, are they going to go short term pitching and save some future spots for the other pitchers in the farm system i.e. McGarry for now?

              Also, the Phillies have Familia, Knebel, Hand as FAs. Familia is replaceable no doubt about that. The other 2 have pitched relatively well. The Phillies do have an abundance of relievers that might deserve a shot.

            3. DMAR, despite the fact that Hall is unproven over a SSS as a major leaguer, I think it’s quite feasible that Hoskins is dealt, perhaps to the west coast (LAA or SFG?) That would be another $10M-$12M off the books, along with the free agent likes of Familia’s $6M. So the dollars add up to go after another big fish…Turner being the biggest, probably.

            4. Nola should get extended and the sooner the better. Nola’s success isn’t pinned to him throwing super hard. If he can sit at 91-93 and touch higher when needed he will be fine. I could easily see him doing that for another 5-7 years. I’d extend Nola now if he was interested. I’d give him a 5 year extension (age 31-35 seasons) and, if necessary, a sixth year team option and a nice ($7-10 million) buyout. They are going to have to pay him at least in the range of $22-26 million per year, but he should be worth it. He’s had tough moments, but, slowly, Nola is evolving into one the best starting pitchers in team history.

              Wheeler is more dicey. When his velocity is down in the 94-95 range, he is very hittable and that’s where he was to start the year (which was a little scary). Also, for the new contract he would be going into his age 35 season. I think you let Wheeler play his contract out and don’t even consider extended him until mid-season in 2024. By around that time, some of the young guns should be promoted (I expect Ben Brown to be in the rotation by the end of next year) and the money may be better used elsewhere. I love what Wheeler brings to the table these days but there’s no reason to make decisions on Wheeler now.

            5. Careful Mark any talk of dealing Hoskins will get Catch all fired up. Hoskins may get dealt at some point but I would be really surprised if its this season.

              I see them staying with him through his FA season to see how that all plays out with this group.

            6. I am used to the Hoskins disrespect – it’s always been puzzling to me, but it is what it is.

              He’s on a pace for roughly a 4 WAR season, not that far behind Schwarber and ahead of all of our other hitters except Realmuto (whose value is primarily with his defense) and Harper. When he gets hot he can carry the team for a week or two. Guys who hit 35 homers and have a 130 OPS+ don’t fall out of trees.

              Could you reliably replace Hoskins? Yeah, I guess you could, but it’s going to cost you a lot more than he will be paid this year and next. And, no, an obvious replacement for him is not on the team yet or in the minors. I like Darick Hall, but you cannot rely on him to replace Hoskins – the league hasn’t adjusted to Hall yet, but it will.

              Fortunately for me, the team values Hoskins much more than folks here do.

            7. And, by the way, I have never said the team should commit now to sign Hoskins to a long term deal. They should let it play out until the middle/end of next year. But his production is real and pretty reliable so if they go in another direction in 2024, they are going to have to pay someone or hope someone develops to Hoskins’ level during the interim. And the talk of putting Bohm or Realmuto there is nuts – those guys would be negative WAR players at first base. Bohm would have to progress a ton as a hitter to be a legitimate first base candidate and Realmuto would be a crazy overpay at first – worse than Joe Mauer at the end of his career.

            8. In my mind, it has nothing to do with disrespect for Hoskins. It’s strictly a bu$ine$$ decision. Hoskins will command $10M-$12M in 2023….Darick Hall will not. Is Hall as reliable at this point as Hoskins? No. But paying Rhys that much more while trying to allocate money to more integral pieces of the 2023 roster and beyond doesn’t seem to make much sense to me.

            9. If Hoskins is a 4 WAR player (and that’s his pace), he will be worth the $10-12 million and then a lot more. The value of a WAR is about $7 million or more, so the math isn’t that hard. He’s a big bargain at that price – so yeah, there’s a ton of disrespect (I’d call it a disconnect) here with Hoskins.

              It’s bad enough we now have a big question mark with Castellanos at DH. To me, you don’t do that and then have that much risk at first by choosing Hall (assuming Hall doesn’t look like the second coming of Rhys Hoskins for the next month or so). We don’t need our first base situation to mirror our centerfield situation.

        2. Have any of you seen Martin Perez pitch? I have, and in my opinion, he is a #4 or #5 starter that can eat up some innings but will not win you many games. This season’s production has been mostly smoke and mirrors. Take a look at his strand rate as it is unsustainable. I think he has come back to earth his last two starts. I view him as comparable to Jose Quintana. I’m not against acquiring him but do not think he will move the needle much. If the Reds are not asking for a lot for Mahle, he is definitely the guy I would pursue. I wouldn’t hesitate to trade someone that we don’t want to give up..perhaps Abel.

          1. I also like Mahle….my one concern as of right now…..shoulder strain.
            We will know more come Sunday….he is due to pitch vs St Louis.
            All of the other factors with him seem above average to good…contract, past performances, and age.

      2. If the Nats take a lessor package to move Corbin along with Soto that would be really bad for them. That would materially lessen the # of buyers and the value that they received.

        1. Agree it lessens the number of buyers but I don’t think it materially lessens the return.

          All eyes I think will be on either Yankees or Astros for Soto. That is for a deal to get done before the TD. Offseason different story.

          Soto would be a great hedge against loosing Judge at least for the next couple of seasons. I believe the Yankees to be the most desperate team in the field to get that WS this year.

          Examining the Astro’s situation I’m not sure they can match the Yankee’s in prospects but if in their shoes would you consider starting your deal for Soto with Kyle Tucker?

          Tucker has 1 more season of control than does Soto. Soto is a 160+ OPS Player Tucker is 130 OPS+ player and proven MLB track record.

          1. For me … I think The Dodgers or Padres (and maybe the Mariners) make the most sense for Soto.

            1. The Mariners are my dark horse for Soto for sure. They’ve won 15 in a row and need to do something to overtake the Astro’s

              Their farm has some attractive pieces

            2. Yeah, it’ll take a big market club with a deep farm…so that narrows it to LAD, SD, NYY…even the Mets don’t have the farm. Houston is a stretch, IMO. Texas has big balls these days but I don’t think they have what it takes either.

            3. DMAR, Seattle has to consider strongly their chances of re-signing him before laying out that kind of prospect capital. I don’t know that Seattle is all that in terms of a destination for elite free agents, no offense to Seattle.

            4. I have to believe Rizzo will not move Soto to any team in the NL-East named the Phillies, Mets or Braves…..maybe the Marlins.
              That would be a negative PR move on his part and Lerner would squash it anyways..

          2. Adding Corbin to Soto in any deal only makes sense from the standpoint of outgoing ownership’s desire to maximize the payroll value for the incoming owners…maybe? Baseball wise, it makes no sense whatsoever.

            1. I mean its what I would do if I were Rizzo and not even from the Lerner’s wanting to sell the team.

              Building a team in the aggregate is always a better option than having the best player in baseball and nothing else. The Angels have taught us that.

              Or as is our case one of the best players in baseball and a payroll bloated by good but inconsistent players on the back half of their age curves.

        2. I disagree only in the sense that I think it’s impossible for them to get a fair value package for Soto. It would still take an incredible haul to land him & Corbin and most of these deals end up busts anyway.

          For me the Padres make the most sense. They could have a creative Soto/Corbin/Bell type deal for Hosmer + their elite farm.

  34. Some fun 2nd half predictions…

    ☆With a favorable schedule, and the resurgence of Nicky Castles’ bat and a hot August and Sept from Bryson Stott, the Phillies will roll to 92 wins.

    ☆Kyle Schwarber will belt 62 home runs to break Roger Maris’ all time *legitimate* single season record.

    ☆Rob Thomson will be re-upped as Phillies manager before season’s end, and win NL manager of the year.

    ☆Dave Dombrowski will make a surprise acquisition at the deadline which will pay off significant dividends for the pitching staff.

    ☆Red October is back in Philadelphia.

    1. I love optimism Mark 🙂

      Again wouldn’t want to be in DD or Fulds shoes not with the injury to Harper. That has to be so disruptive to chart the course plotted by them. We seem to forget that even without the broken hand there is the elbow issue that needs to be dealt with at some point.

      I’d go the poor mans route for a starter guys like our old pal Cole Irvin or a player I long have admired in Kyle Hendricks.

  35. What do you think it would take to get Happ and Robertson from the Cubs? I know we had a bad experience with Robertson, but that was bad luck from injuries. He had been, up until we got him, injury free. Happ is a nice bat who can play multiple positions. And, I don’t think that it would take a haul to get them.

  36. Luis Castillo is drawing interest from the Astros, Yankees, Dodgers, Blue Jays. He still has 1 more year of control so it’s obvious that he’s going to get the most interest.

    Andrew Benintendi is supposedly still drawing robust interest even though he’s unvaccinated.

    1. If a team does not have to play in Canada, then Benintendi’s situation is a moot point.

  37. 😎👍 for Happ
    🤨👎 for Robertson

    Happ would help,, but Robertson doesn’t have the stuff to succeed at the back of a playoff team’s BP IMO. He’s more or less the 2022 version of Richard Rodriguez last season. He was fine closing meaningless games for the last place Pirates in 2021. But Atlanta never let him sniff the 8th or 9th innings after acquiring him.

    I’m guessing the Cubs (who may trade Wilson Contreras) would ask for O’Hoppe for Happ. Dombrowski would counter with Sands or Machan. Chicago might then demand a pitcher not named Abel, Painter, or McGarry. That probably means Ben Brown or Erik Miller.

    So would you trade Rafael Marchan and Erik Miller, and maybe a lottery ticket (Aroon Escobar) for 1.5 years of Ian Happ?

  38. That’s tough, Hinkie. I like Erik Miller. I may go O’Hoppe and no one vs Marchan or Sands and Miller.

    1. Not a big Happ guy, so I’m definitely not giving up O’Hoppe for him…I’d just as soon keep Vierling in CF if we can’t upgrade better than Happ. He’s ok, but not worth any top 10 prospects IMO.

      1. Agree. I’m fine with Vierling in CF. I’d save my prospect capital for pitching (preferably a starter).

  39. I think Happ is too erratic a player and Robertson is this year’s success story in a bullpen pitcher who will command a high price due his being needed by so many teams. Virtually all teams who need bullpen help will look at him and the Phillies are not going to out-offer the Dodgers, Braves, or Mets. I am not being pessimistic as much as realistic that the DD is not going to trade something like one of the minor league catchers and Eric Miller for Robertson. I could see a team’s # 8-12 prospect necessary to get him.

  40. Back to my new Trea Turner obsession. Scott Lauber has a new piece on the coming shortstop market and quotes TT’s recent lament over Bryce’s absence from the All-Star Game. Lauber then observes:
    “At the risk of making a connection that isn’t there, Turner sounded an awful lot like someone who wouldn’t mind a reunion with Harper. He’s admittedly an F.O.B — “Friend of Bryce” — after teaming with him for parts of four seasons with the Nationals. The feeling is mutual. Harper speaks highly of Turner, often stating that the reigning National League batting champion is among the most underrated players in the sport. ”

    Be still my heart….

    1. Hope for the Dodgers to get Soto in a trade…..they may not want to spring to pay Turner, knowing Soto will command $35M plus AAV pretty soon…plus Urias, Bellinger and Buehler all await with sizable pay increases after 2023.

  41. Guys just an unbelievable 15U update. At Grand Park this weekend there are 312 teams in the 15U tourney. It is hard to even keep track where teams are. Grandson team is 3-1. They are in 2nd round of Pool play. Lost 1st game so knocked them down. Bulls Black also lost so they are down a notch from normal. Lefty threw a no hitter today for Mustangs. He really has talent but so inconsistent. Couple weeks ago, in 1st inning lefty threw 33 pitches and 5 were strikes. One more pool game and then bracket play Sunday and Monday. But kid team will soon run out of pitchers. Grandson won yesterday so he is now 6-2 for Summer. So hot here in Indiana. Go Phillies. I am sticking my 90-win total. Hinkie is with me. I think that will get in playoffs. Phillies have good tie breakers with most. teams.

  42. Four teams they have played so far are from
    Missouri
    Chicago
    Ohio
    Green Bay Wisconsin
    Teams are from everywhere.
    I did notice that Ohio Elite is the #1 ranked team overall. They have always been outstanding and IMO the best coached group over the years. Class outfit.

  43. Anybody interested in the Reds’ CF Tyler Naquin? He’d be a rental, 31 yrs old…

  44. Proof that the Phillies need a #3….exhibits a, b, and c – Zach Eflin, Ranger Suarez and Kyle Gibson.

  45. Well, the 2nd half started with a bang…..oucH! I remember Stubbs being much more effective, previously.

    1. Somebody forgot to alert the team the second half got underway.
      Who was worse? The Phillies, or that appleTV+ broadcast?
      Hopefully no more games on any streaming service this season.

      1. That appleTV broadcast was brutal.

        The Phillies starting slow against a team they’re supposed to beat? Where have we heard that story before? They went 0-7 with RISP.

  46. Baseball needs all the help it can get in reaching fans and shutting them off from regular TV broadcasts to chase a few streaming dollars runs contrary to that purpose. Meanwhile, those of us who subscribe to MLB TV package with the promise that we will see “every out of market game” are cheated. At least the radio guys are fun to listen to.

  47. Not to sound too much like the guys on philly.com, but what is Familia still doing on this team? Bring up Appel. He pitched well for Phils, has a 1.55 ERA at Lehigh Valley and looks like he can easily fill the mid-reliever, mop-up man role.

    1. They can’t stand the idea of paying a guy peanuts for pitching well versus paying another guy $6M for being ineffective.

    2. It’s true, Familia has performed so poorly that he’s now coming in for mop up roles. And if you can’t do that right, you need to go.

      Bailey Falter is scheduled to pitch on Sunday. I’m expecting Familia to be DFAd or JoJo (he needs more reps) to be sent down.

    3. Coonrod also started his rehab down on the farm. I think he’s coming for Familia’s spot, if he sticks around that long.

  48. .

    Matt Gelb brings up Noah Syndergaard (and others) as a potential trade target. However, he mentions Thor has not started a game this season on regular rest (he sometimes gets two extra days) because the Angels use a 6 man rotation. I had also seen earlier in the season, Syndergaard’s velo was down.
    However, in the comments section, a poster (Mike B) claims he’s an Angels fan, and vouches for Thor. He reports the former Met hurler has been upping his velo and building up his IP more recently.
    I pulled up some more recent video of Syndergaard ⬇, and it does show a lot of 95s and 96s. The secondaries (at least on this Youtube clip) look pretty good also. The poster (Mike B) believes Perry Minasion would take a “fringe prospect” in a deal. Realistically, it’s going to cost more than that. Would you give up two of: Sanchez/Falter/Morales/Viars for two months of Noah Syndergaard?

    1. For sure, the Phillies should sniff out rotation help just in case. But the Phillies are always calling upon Falter and Sanchez to fill up gaps in the rotation. Are these 2 guys not good enough to belong in a rotation? I mean, the Phillies are likely losing 2 starters next season. If the Phillies feel that Falter and Sanchez can take a spot next season, why can’t they take a spot now?

      1. I doubt the Phillies think those guys could take 2 rotation spots this year or next and I don’t see why they should. Maybe if the team was in a rebuild they could afford to give them that chance but not in a playoff race.

        1. I would rather give these guys a shot than a stopgap or reclamation project. Otherwise, it’s going to cost the Phillies big. Pitching is expensive, and the Phillies will need to give some of their young starters some opportunities to balance the payroll.

          1. You can afford to do that with maybe one spot early in the season but not two, and ideally not at all down the stretch in a playoff chase. And definitely not with two guys who are fringy.

            Falter’s been hit hard this year and has mediocre stuff; Sanchez has been used solely as a reliever this year in the majors (and is probably better suited for that role). It might be expensive but they don’t have a choice. DD isn’t going to sit on his hands anyway.

    2. Noah Syndergaard velo readings:
      Month….4Smr….2Smr
      4/22 ….95.39…95.53
      5/22…..94.02….94.05
      6/22…..94.89…94.52
      7/22 ….93.43…93.61
      …does hover in the 93-95 range

  49. Painter and McGarry (Reading) both on the mound tonight.
    Hope the blister on McGarry’s hand does not resurface.

  50. Wow, this is hard to watch. The offense is still on the all-star break and the the bullpen just melted down spectacularly.

  51. Two years in a row this team is playing down to the competition in the second half of the season. Embarrassing. Good luck to Jake Owens entertaining this crowd.

  52. Our hitting has been terrible both games. Castellanos is killing us, his ABs are just so bad. He had multiple hittable pitches tonight and simply didn’t get good swings. Defense again hurt us, but this team was built to hit. Wheeler was great and deserved better. We can’t wait until the deadline. We need a move now.

    1. I like Nick Castellanos as a dude, and think eventually he’ll return to his norm in the batters box. In the meantime, he’s only making matters worse for himself coming after Jim Salisbury.

      .

      And good for Salisbury coming right back at Castellanos.

      1. I’d be shocked if Rob Thomson doesn’t give Castellanos some sort of mental health break. It’s kind of obvious he has needed one for a little while now .

        1. I like Salisbury trying to light a fire under Castellanos. It’s not really his place but maybe it will work.

          I came up with interesting moves for the Phils. Fantasy land besides getting Castillo, Robertson, and DFA Didi and Familia

          Abel, Bohm, and Rojas to Reds for Castillo, 3b Drury, and 4th/5th of Freidl. I’m getting sold on the idea they really need a #3.

          Falter and J. Ortiz to Nationals for 1b Bell.

          Hoskins and Sands to Red Sox for ss Bogaerts. I would like to see this if it wasn’t for the thought that this would hurt team chemistry.

          Herrera, Alvarado, and rhrp Segovia to Cubs for rhrp Robertson and rhrp Martin.

          DFA Didi and Familia and get Gallo too. Numbers say Gallo was average in cf in the past tho not many innings.

          Schwarber
          Bogaerts
          Harper
          Drury
          Bell
          Segura
          Gallo
          Realmuto
          Castellanos

          43 million in 8/9 hole! 8 new players on the roster. Braves did something similar last year. 8 new players is crazy.

  53. Not a big fan of Nick, I don’t like his indifference and lackadaisical approach to his work. Dude exhibits no energy. If anyone wants him, I would accommodate them. His at bats are underwhelming and never could field. A poor acquisition IMO.

    When #28 has a night not to remember, he really has a night to forget. Stunk it up on both sides of the ball.

    Hope springs eternal that DD can acquire some talent and guys with some energy. If not, play some guys who look like they care. We need Harper and Segura back ASAP. A bad time to go in the dumper.

    1. Skeet…agree.
      Right now he is seemingly swinging through many fastballs…..or fouls them off.
      A hitter of his reputable ilk cannot afford to do that.
      And he does have a little of a ‘Jayson Werth’ in his personality.

      1. i think i jinx him I said in the beginning of season, Wow that a professional hitter, since then he has went south, my bad

        1. rocco…welcome back….who would have thought…..he has a career OPS just over .800…this year he is under .700.
          Maybe he is putting too much pressure on himself

  54. I put game on last night at 1-1 top of 10th. Bad timing on my part. Playing to the level of competition has been issue in past years. Hopefully something changes quickly.
    15U done. Lost 2-1 to a really good team from Chicago suburbs. Finished 20-17-2.

  55. Unless the bats wake up, we are on the verge of getting swept at home by the Cubs, who will sell off players un a week. Pathetic. Not much success figuring out Smyly’s knuckle curve and other off speed stuff, and Falter is showing how much we need a #3 SP. We may be back to .500 before we know it.

  56. Bailey Falter has confirmed to me that he’s a 4/5 after this performance. I don’t think he could be a nasty reliever so I think his best shot is to stay as a starter. I’ve changed my mind, there’s no way that the Phillies can hand him a starting rotation spot next season. He needs to be in a competition and take it during ST.

  57. When the Cubs miss out on Dylan Crews (next year’s draft), they can blame the Phillies for laying an egg (3 of them) out of the all-star break.

    1. … or maybe when the Phillies miss the postseason (for 11th year in a row), and shock the world by winning the draft lottery & Dylan Crews, they’ll thank the Cubs for playing over their heads coming out of the all-star break.

  58. The Braves have been Baseball’s best team since June 1, and there is a great chance we get swept again.Question? Is it possible we sell at the deadline, not buy? If we are back at .500, how can we justify anything meaningful that hurts the farm, but how can we do nothing after spending what we did? I honestly don’t know what we can do other than add a good SP and a real hitter. Schwarber is back to earth despite the HRs. Castellanos is still off balance, missing pitches in the zone, swinging futilely at low and outside pitches and it’s almost August.

    1. They are not going to sell and yes, they can’t justify trading the farm for guys that may help them win a few games. I say this every year, but every year people yell buy buy buy and every year it does not work for the Phillies. So I hope the Phillies do some stupid shortsighted trades unless it has been decided that 2022 will be the Phillies last year as a franchise.

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