2022 Draft Day Discussion: July 17th

The Texas Rangers selected Kumar Rocker with their third pick and blew every expert’s mock draft.  This made it a little more likely that a quality player would reach the Phillies at number seventeen.

The Phillies used their first-round pick to select outfielder Justin Crawford out of Bishop Gorman HS in Las Vegas, Nevada.  He is an LSU commit.  He is the son of former big leaguer Carl Crawford.  As a senior, he hit .503 with 52 RBI, 20 stolen bases, 77 hits, and a .562 OBP.  Scouts rank him as a 70 running.

As a Las Vegas native, he should be able to work out with Bryce Harper and Bryson Stott during the offseason.

Crawford is 6’3, 175 lbs, born January 13, 2004.  He bats left-handed and throws right-handed.  He was ranked the 13th best prospect by MLB.

Ranked prospects still on the board when the Phillies picked at #17 were

  • Juco 3B Cam Collier #8
  • Prep RHP Brock Porter #11
  • College C Daniel Susac #12
  • Prep LHP Brandon Barriera #15
  • Prep LHP Robby Snelling #16
  • College SS Zach Neto #17
  • as were college pitchers Prielipp and Tidwell (#25 and #27)

The Phillies had the 17th overall selection in the first round.  They gave up their second-round pick when they signed free agent outfielder Nick Castellanos who had a qualifying offer attached.

The Phillies are done until Monday when the draft continues with the third round.

The Phillies have a bonus pool allotment of $6,307,000.

The complete slot breakdown is as follows (round, pick, $) –

  1. 17th overall: $3,792,800
  2. Forfeited with Nick Castellanos’ signing
  3. 93th overall: $659,800
  4. 122nd overall: $492,800
  5. 152nd overall: $368,100
  6. 182nd overall: $281,800
  7. 212nd overall: $220,400
  8. 242nd overall: $178,900
  9. 272nd overall: $160,700
  10. 302nd overall: $151,700
  11. 332nd overall: picks in rounds 11 thru 20 are each capped at $125, 000 which doesn’t count against the bonus pool; any portion exceeding this figure counts against the bonus pool.
  12. 362nd overall: capped at $125, 000
  13. 392nd overall: capped at $125, 000
  14. 422nd overall: capped at $125, 000
  15. 452nd overall: capped at $125, 000
  16. 482nd overall: capped at $125, 000
  17. 512nd overall: capped at $125, 000
  18. 542nd overall: capped at $125, 000
  19. 572nd overall: capped at $125, 000
  20. 602nd overall: capped at $125, 000

Contracts for non-drafted free agents are capped at $20,000.

Schedule (All Times ET)

Monday, July 18
Day 2
Rounds 3-10
Streaming live on MLB.com
Round 2 begins at 2:00 PM EST
Tuesday, July 19
Day 3
Rounds 11-20
Streaming live on MLB.com
Round 11 begins at 2:00 PM EST

This is a forum for draft discussion to keep it separate from other conversations.

As in previous years, I’ll post a place for daily draft discussions until the draft is completed,  then, weekly draft discussions until the end of the signing period.  Draft signings will be tracked here – 2022 Draft Tracker


87 thoughts on “2022 Draft Day Discussion: July 17th

  1. I will start the same way that I always do on these draft threads…I am not a scout. Just a fan. I have never seen any of these kids play. But for some reason I see Greg Golson comp and it scares me. Phillies are terrible developing hit tools. Not a fan of this pick. Hope to be very very wrong.

    1. We’ll see how it shakes out, hopefully Preston Mattingly’s team can get the most out of him.

      Not sure he’ll be here long enough to worry about the Phillies ability to develop him given the openings at the MLB level.

    2. Feeling the same way. Golson was a few front offices ago but even as the current group has drawn praise overall, they still struck out on boom/bust guys like Baylor and Martin. Hopefully his bat isn’t as raw as people are thinking.

    3. v1, if it makes you feel a tiny bit better the Phils seem to have dramatically changed their Minor League organizational development under Preston Mattingly.

        1. V1 you asked about successes from Phils minor league changes. Hard to say so soon and I am not knowledgable, but just this latest halfyear couldn’t you point to Vierling? Hall? Ohoppe? Rickardo Perez? Perhaps Moniak? And a couple on the pitching side as well, but you specifically commented on hitter development

          1. No. I asked about proof that the new regime’s changes have born fruit. Vierling, Hall and O’Hoppe all were productive hitters with the prior regime.

            1. Very sorry, V1! I responded to the part in your post which includes “our hitting prospects have really struggled this year”, i.e. their current hitting development is not going well. I am confused about your comment about how all the above were “productive hitters with the prior regime” when Perez and Vierling were only drafted last year. O’Hoppe’s first year after being drafted was when Mattingly was hired, but I can see how you could list him as the prior regime, as well as Hall(if you(as Romus has often posted) have the perspective that he would have been effective if brought up earlier..). IN any event, they might not be the “proof” you are looking for but perhaps reason for a little optimism.

            2. Vierling was drafted in 2018. He hit .324/.364/.479 in the majors last year. Logan O’Hoppe was also drafted in 2018 and had a great hitting year last year. Mattingly was hired this past offseason. He deserves zero credit for O’Hoppe or Vierling’s hitting success.

    4. Tend to agree. Would have preferred Collier, who is said to have a more advanced hit tool. Or prep pitcher Porter. Or even Snelling.

    5. It’s always a risk with the toolsy high schoolers, but I remember Golson coming from a football school where he didn’t get much baseball coaching. Crawford is the son of a major leaguer. He grew up around the game. And mattingly is emphasizing development working under a legit baseball mind in dombrowski. I have higher hopes for Crawford than another Anthony Hewitt or Reggie Taylor.

  2. Porter, Barriera, Snelling, Prielipp still on board, so I will be interested in how they do. Also, Cards get College LHP who is probably going to be a year from making his MLB debut, so also will watch him. I have the same reservations as v1, and hope we have discovered how to develop hitters. Loved how his Dad played, so fingers crossed.

    1. JP Crawford and Justin’s father Carl Crawford are cousins, which makes Justin and JP second cousins, I think. Not an especially pertinent fact about his prospects, but a fun fact.

  3. Watched draft with my 10 year old son who loves baseball/plays travel ball here in south Jersey. I said they would take a high school pitcher Barreria or Porter he says CF. Picks made and he says “I told you”. I ask him why he said CF and he says “because you said we need a CF”. Well I guess he listens to what I say SOME of the time.

  4. I posted this in the other thread …
    I think it’s fair to say Barber/Crowson have a “type” for their first round picks: young, long/lean/projectable, and ceiling over everything. Crawford is a lot like Abel and Painter in those ways.
    I was hoping for Prielipp, but I wouldn’t knock this pick. I can envision what Crawford will probably look like in a few years: studly. I understand the whole hit tool development concern, but (like others have noted) Preston Mattingly has redone a lot of the Phillies development program. I’m also a big believer in passing down genes, and the benefits kids get growing up around the game. One last thing, the Padres (one of the best organizations in recognizing talent & the former home of Preston Mattingly) were reportedly weighing Lesko vs Crawford.

    1. Agreed. That is another takeaway from this pick…Barber is the polar opposite of Almaraz. JA would never have taken Crawford. Not his style of player. Nor would he have taken Painter or Abel.

  5. I have no idea what kind of player Crawford will be. I sure loved the way his father played the game. What I do see is the quality depth at centerfield in the minor leagues is growing. Add Crawford’s 70s speed to the speed of Garcia and Rojas both have shown. I don’t recall any of the past Phillies Farm Systems with this many 70s speed CFs. Seems to me the Phillies took the highest rated player on their board with this pick. I am thinking a pitcher with the next pick.

      1. It’s my understanding that Collier asked for well above slot for that part of the first round. The Reds had a larger draft pool to work from, so it allowed them to go above slot to get Collier. Ironically, part of the reason they have a larger pool is because they received the #32 pick as part of the Castellanos signing.

        Given how quickly the Phillies turned in their pick, it appeared that he was the best player available on their board. I look forward to seeing him develop.

  6. I’ll be honest: Crawford wasn’t on my radar. But I can see why they picked him, given the lack of organizational depth at the position. What video I saw on him didn’t overly impress me, but I see the tools/projection. Overall, I’m cool with it. In this era of sons of former big leaguers thriving in the MLB, it’ll be nice to have our version of that.

    But man, the Phillies sure love their Crawfords and players from Las Vegas lol

    1. If the Phillies corner the market on Nevada players, much like the Braves with Georgia players, I’m good with that (as long as they pan out of course).

  7. Can someone compare Crawford and Rojas? I see outstanding defense and speed and questions about hitting ability.

    1. Crawford’s hit tool at this stage seems much further along with some questions about how he stands at the plate. Biggest concern is the raw power he has now, but there is some projection as he fills out his frame. He kinda compares better to Moniak at this stage than Rojas. Hopefully the hit tool holds up better (Moniak had elite hit tool out of high school but couldn’t hit pro offspeed pitches) and the power comes along.

  8. I’m a numbers guy. In this case, $ guy. Will he or should he get full slot? More? Less? Because he was ranked higher and fell a few slots, through no fault of his own. I think he, at least, gets the slot money. What do you guys think?

    1. I expect Crawford to sign for full slot ($3.7928M), or close to it. Can’t see him taking less than $3.5M.

  9. Hope he takes the Mickey Moniak route and signs for less than slot…and save a few shekels for the 93rd pick.

  10. I’m a big highest ceiling guy. I thought Lesko was their guy but he went before us. Collier was the other guy I’m sure they considered but I can understand a CF over a 3B. I don’t think Crawford’s selection means they’ll trade Rojas but I do think they’ll likely trade two of Rojas, O’Hoppe and McGarry for a SP and a CF. The draft is a separate selection process though.

    1. I doubt that the Phillies selected Crawford (CF) over Collier (3B) because of position. At least I sure hope not.

  11. I like the pick Justin Crawford comes from a baseball family, Elite athlete, speed, and defense, A better arm and more polished than his dad at this point he said… Slap hitter comments concern me he also looks so skinny…

    I wanted one of those LHP or Lesko to go with our big 3 but I didn’t think Crawford was going to be there so it was a tough choice and I trust B.B alot more than Johnny A who had 4 top 10 picks and all we got is Alec Bohm.. He set this franchise back so much I can’t even think about it…

    Then I think about all the other Great CF athletes we have had in the past Roman Quinn, Carlos Tocci, Simon Muzziotti, throw in Moniak as well and I think Oh Boy…

  12. Could a possible reasoning why we went Crawford over Collier the differences in their position and defensive ability? Look at the difficulty we have at the ML level with below average defenders. At the most basic level, CF will always be a more priority position over a 3b, not too much we already have a young 3b who lacks power. I know you do not draft for the here and now, but I wonder if our continual problems developing a well-rounded CF, plus CF>3B could have been a deciding factor between Crawford/Collier.

  13. After sleeping on it and watching some video, I think my concern is more with the Phillies ability to develop hitters than with Crawford as a prospect. He is clearly an elite athlete. Good bloodlines as Hinkie mentions. Been around the game a lot growing up. From the videos that I saw, he plays the game with passion, which I love. All of those things you can’t teach. So that’s all goodness. But he is very thin. Needs to hit the weight room badly. He just looks raw to me.

    I expect him to struggle early in his career. So no one should panic if he hits sub .200 in his short stint this year. I just don’t see a fast riser. But maybe he surprises us.

    1. I don’t know if I like the term raw for him. The Phillies in recent years have shifted to value more the baseball skills than raw ability. Remember Painter and Abel weren’t first round picks for velocity alone, rather feel for pitching with great off-speed and decent velocity with room for projection on their frame.

      Crawford has a feel for hitting in his hit tool with room for projection with power. That combined with his great defensive potential really make this a solid pick. The most concerning point to me is if the Phillies will actually be competent enough to develop a decent hitting prospect. Time will tell.

  14. I think they really thought Rocker was falling to them at 17 and when that didn’t happen it shook them up quite a bit. Heck it shook everybody’s boards…

    If you wanted a position player I agree Collier had the better hit tool. I hate hearing about guys that are fast as for me it doesn’t mean a lick if you can’t hit MLB pitching. I think though it likely did come down to slot $$$.

    Collier is a Louisville commit and only 17. He was going to be a tough sign.

    Crawford is an LSU commit so he isn’t taking under slot IMO. Money likely isn’t an issue for the Crawford’s as Carl made over $170 million in his career so I also don’t think he is going to ask for over slot.

    On the flip side he may end up being Ken Griffey Jr LIKE so for now I’ll think positive.

    1. Perhaps Crawford will sign for $3M….and the $700K surplus can be tagged to the 93rd guy….still many promising HS pitchers on the board.

  15. Listening to Dan O’Dowd last night about drafting Connor Prielipp,
    …..’no way he would ever draft a kid just on a bullpen sessions’
    he lasted until the 48th pick and the Twins grabbed him.
    Mets did well…getting Tidwell from Tenn in the 2nd round

    Hinkie’s favs…Cermak went to the Rays. and Toman to the Jays.

    1. Love listening to O’Dowd’s insights on drafting. He brings such a wealth of knowledge to their programming. Fortune favors the brave I suppose so the Twins at that spot could afford to roll the dice. They train out of Ft. Myers so we’ll be able to watch Prielipp quite a bit.

      It was also really cool that they had the Vols coach Vitello on adding his insight as he knows a ton of these kids.

      1. That could be a steal for the Twins…maybe they will eventually beat the Yankees in a play-off series with him in their rotation.

  16. I’m going to assume (and I have a history of being wrong when I do this) that Justin Crawford is going to sign for some sort of discount; probably more of a moderate discount. Like Romus has stated, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brian Barber seek to pay their 3rd round pick 2nd round money (same thing they did with Casey Martin). That would most likely mean a prep or JUCO player at 93. W/O knowing asking prices, here are some possibilities ⬇

    Brock Porter … is a pipe dream. He’s either going to Clemson or going to picked by a team with a bonus pool much more robust than the Phillies.

    Nazier Mule … is one of my favorites. The 6’2″/210 RH prep pitcher from NJ has one of the most impressive arms in the draft.

    Noah Samol … 6’7″/235 prep southpaw from Ohio came back from TJ this season throwing a mid 90s FB and +CB.

    1. Chase Shores … 6’8″/230 HS RHP from Texas

      Jake Madden … 6’6″/200 JUCO RHP

      1. Gavin Turley … 6’1″/190 RHH HS OFer. + wheels, + power, needs some work on the hit tool

        Jalin Flores … 6’2″/188 prep SS

        1. There’s also the possibility Barber buys a big college arm early today. Here are three dudes that could be in play⬇

          Zach Maxwell … enormous human being who throws very hard. The 6’7″/280 RHP from Georgia Tech has two plus pitches FB & SL and could become a dominant closer. He’s also started some this season. Brian Barber was part of the Yankees scouting dept that drafted him out of HS.

          1. William Kempner … 6’0″/225 RHP @ Gonzaga throws a mid 90s FB (t 100) from a funky angle. Has Griff McGarry traits: tremendous stuff, but trouble with the K-zone. I really like this kid.

            Ben Joyce … the hardest throwing man on the face of the earth.

    2. Maybe Mike Kennedy from NY…LHP…will still be on the board at 93.
      A LSU commit but maybe the money will be there to sway him away.

  17. See that Rocker has signed with the Rangers for $5.1M, significantly under slot. No doubt they already had a deal in place and move was made to give them additional flexibility.

      1. Wow, this pick is going to be debated on for years. Rocker got his money so good for him. So either the Mets look like total bozos for not signing him or the Rangers look like bozos for not heeding the warnings about his shoulder.

        1. I guess you’re essentially looking at 3 players Rocker-Parada-Williams. I think Parada has a pretty solid floor with lots of upside on his ceiling

          Whereas Willams has boom-bust written all over him

          Rocker OTOH his career could be all over the map and maybe a lot like Taijuan Walker.

          Was also happy to see the Nats take Green. I hate to root against a kid and I may eat my words but I don’t think he ever hits enough. I see an Elijah Dukes type career for him….minus the bad guy persona.

  18. My thoughts, trying to be respectful as well. Personally I would have liked yet another pitcher. I feel we are going to trade some pitchers and I’d like to keep the pipeline flowing in that regard.
    That said, I’m not crazy about the potential for lack of power in an OF position. In todays game, 20 hrs seems like the min for a too pick. To me, This seems like a risky pick at 17, that could end up a 4th OF if power doesn’t develop. I do like his aggressiveness with his speed, his speed in general, and the pedigree is real. Will see how he matures, converts to a wooden vs metal bat, etc . Good luck to the kid. Hopefully he can achieve his dream, and be the starting CF for the Phillies down the road.

    1. Not too worried about power for a kid that projects to be a pure CF. I’m good with a CF that hits 10 HR a season. However, he needs enough hit tool to get the barrel of the bat on the ball, hit line drives, and have a respectable batting average and OBP. If he can do that, Crawford has enough speed to turn doubles into triples, plus beat out infield hits.

  19. Obviously right now, with the range limitations of the corner outfielders, an excellent defensive center fielder is very important – with production almost being an afterthought. But under the best of times a high school player will likely graduate to the major leagues where there is a completely different scenario. So, maybe this or other picks could also best be viewed on how they might end up as trade material…. if there is a fast start in the MILB play>

  20. great info as always Hinkie-
    the pick scares me but minimized a little bit that its the son of a major leaguer as that definitely seems to give them a leg up it seems with what we’ve seen in MLB and the draft as of late.
    assuming Collier signs for significantly more $, there doesnt seem to be that obvious “they should have picked this guy instead” situation.

  21. Here’s another prepster I like a little who could be an option for today or tomorrow ⬇

    Jackson Chirello … gives me Von Hayes vibes. He’s a long, lean prep OFer from Georgia. The 6’5″/195 LHH prospect stands tall in the box, and uses a good approach to attack pitches almost exclusively in the zone. He’s got quick hands, and a whippy bat. He drives the ball to all fields. It’s more gap power right now, but he should grow into abv avg power as he fills out. The kid has good speed, is at least an avg defender in any OF spot. He’s commited to Kennesaw State so he may not be a tough sign.

    And I just noticed Brandon Sproat is still available. He’s a Florida Gator RH SP w/4 pitch mix, featuring an upper 90s FB.

  22. Another OFer.. interesting. I wonder if they are stocking piling picks to trade with their paths blocked at the MLB level
    For OF & DH. Good luck to the kid either way, I hope he crushes his opportunity!

  23. 3rd Round pick is Gabriel Rincones. Had him as a 5th rounder in one of my Phillies mocks. Here’s what I had. ⬇

    Gabriel Rincones Jr … is a 6’4″/225 LHH OFer @ Florida Atlantic Univ. He grew up globetrotting. Rincones spent parts of his youth in Venezuela and also in Scotland before ending up in Florida where he played in HS. This kid was barely recruited as a prepster. He went to JUCO, and crushed it at St. Petersburg College: .421/.520/.657 during two seasons there, and was named top junior college player in state of Florida. The Padres liked the JUCO All-American enough to draft him in the 19th round last summer. Rincones declined to sign, and shipped off to FAU where he’s been having another dominant season (.346/.451/.662, 19 HRs). IMO, he sort of resembles Nick Williams in stature, setup, and swing. He’s more than adequate with the glove. Plays mostly RF, but can/has played CF too.

    1. 41 BBs to 52 Ks I like that profile….

      Hard to know about the competition he faced but at least the stats are lofty enough to say even if the competition was low he’s still got an idea at the plate.

      1. DMAR…he does have excellent size to go along with a good plate approach..
        First base could be his final destination.
        MLB rates his arm and run below average.
        Actually a 30 rating is probably the lowest you will ever see….have never seen a 20.

        1. You know the old adage Romus if you can hit they will find a place for you and never more true with the DH position added

          This kid is 21 so hopefully they get him signed and into a league right quick

  24. So once upon a time we had the GCL for HS Picks and WPT for college picks. What do draft picks these days do after they sign?

    I know they generally report to Clearwater but is there game action for them there?

  25. A few guys went in the 3rd round that I liked, including William Kempner to the SFGs at the very end of the round.

  26. Rangers crushing it with Kumar and Porter. Thats making the most of your picks, especially if Rocker ends up staying healthy and being good

      1. I have to say I like what the Rangers did by picking maybe the top two pitchers in the draft. And add them to Leiter from last year? Wow!

    1. Hi K rate keeps the ball in the yard not shabby at all in the 4th rnd. Nice showing in the Cape Cod league also with a sub 1 WHIP and over 13K per 9.

  27. 5th round Orion Kerkering. Had him in my Final Phillies Mock ⬇

    Orion Kerkering … is a 6’2″/205 RHP who plays a stone’s throw from the Phillies complex in Clearwater. The University of South Florida hurler features a 92-95 FB (T97) and a turbo spinning SL that usually makes hitters look foolish. That breaker registered some of the highest spin rates at the combine (~3,000 RPM). Kerkering spent his first couple of years at USF in the BP. He worked mostly as a starter this season, and totaled 67.2 IP, 75 H, 19 BB, 91 K. He’ll need work on his CH to start as a pro. But the FB/SL combo gives him a late game reliever floor.

  28. I’m guessing they are saving money on picks 3, 4, and 5 (and … again, I could be completely wrong). I’m expecting a prep or JUCO pick pretty soon.

  29. Caleb Ricketts is a senior sign I guess but the talked him up a bit on the MLB stream. Chance to stick behind the plate and a good bat.

  30. In category of WIW – on Sirus MLB radio today — Jim Bowden, when questioned about the pick he liked in the first round the best – WAS – Justin Crawford — by the Phillies. He went on to say he is projection, but “he will hit” and he will be a super defensive player, in CF, and his speed is off the map. He likes the fact he is the child of a mlb player and he was very enthusiastic in his praise. Just sayin’…..

    1. There are some really good successes in the league as of late so nothing wrong with dreaming on that

      I can really only think of one not so successful and that is Daz Cameron

      I like the Devon White comp O’Dowd had last night. I’d take that in a heartbeat

  31. I’m thrilled with Alex Rao in the 8th round. I watched him a few times in person this year. They might give him a chance to start but he’ll be a better reliever. Notre Dame relied on him a lot during the NCAA Regionals. He really fits Barber’s profile. Comp would be Nick Nelson but throws a little harder than Nelson.

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