2022 Discussion in Preparation for the Amateur Draft – July 4, 2022

Happy Fourth of July.

This is the Phuture Phillies forum for the discussion of prospects eligible for the amateur draft that is scheduled to be held July 17-19, 2022.  You can place videos, scouting reports, or just comments here.  These discussions will be added to the pull-down menu above.

Feel free to discuss the 2022 international signing period, too.  It began on January 15th.

This is the link to this year’s draft spreadsheet.

This space is for the discussion of prospects in the upcoming draft and international signing period.  This is NOT a place for you to complain about past picks/signings or the organization’s past/current draft and international philosophies … or any other non-draft topic.

47 thoughts on “2022 Discussion in Preparation for the Amateur Draft – July 4, 2022

    1. Romus,

      Boras doesn’t have any leverage with Rocker. He will need to take slot and like it. He isn’t going to sit our another year. I am not sure Rocker is a risk worth taking for the Phils. The medicals are a concern. They need to hit on their 1st round pick.

      1. In 13 days we will know for sure what direction the Phillies will go.
        I would hope the Philies could draft someone with the 17th selection…and be able to sign the player under-slot, maybe pick up an additional $1/2M to put on the 93rd pick or later hi-ceiling prospect.
        Pirates did that with Davis last year and picked up Chandler a HS pitcher out of Georgia, and also a HS OF Braylon Bishop out of Arkansas all the way down to the 14th round.
        You are correct…..they need to hit.

        1. I hate to do the “predicting the bonus” thing because I’m almost never right. But here’s what I know/have read: Kumar Rocker & Scott Boras believed they had a pre-arranged deal for 6M from the Mets last year (that was mucho over slot). The Mets ended up offering nothing because of medical concerns.
          Now here’s where I speculate (will probably look foolish). I’d guess Boras goal for Rocker is 4M this time around. IMO, he’s not likely to get that. Not saying it’s impossible because all it takes is one team. Just saying I don’t see 4M happening because no matter how minor, a shoulder operation/scope is still a concern (to what degree depends on individual clubs). Kumar also has little to no negotiating leverage (he turns 23 YO later this year).
          IMO, the major negotiating carrot will be the “how quick to MLB” is your franchise planning for Rocker. The faster the kid pitches in the majors, the sooner he’ll earn bigger money, and the more rapidly he’ll reach arbitration, and eventually free agency.
          Again, this is just my POV. It is virtually impossible to know what players & advisors will demand, and then actually settle for when it comes to the draft. I didn’t expect Andrew Painter (another Boras client) to sign for 300-thousand dollars under slot last summer, but it happened.

          1. Hinkie…..Boras must realize at this point, he does not have the leverage he had last year with Rocker and the Mets, or for that matter any team that may have drafted him in 2021.
            So I’d think he may still ask and try to negotiate for slot money…in the Phillies case , $3.8M. I just hope if it is the Phillies Dave D can get him to take something less.
            The other factor….Boras only has TWO weeks now (by Aug 1)in this draft to get it done….nothing like in the past where agents like him could dicker around for 5/6 weeks before the deadline.

            PS….didn;t the Mets offer 40% of slot last year to Boras and Rocker?

            1. Romus … No. The Mets made no offer after seeing Rocker’s medicals. They chose to get the 1-11 pick this summer instead. That’s one of the reasons why the Phillies picking Kumar (depending on what their doctors think) could be so intriguing. Can you imagine the drive Rocker would have to “stick it” to the Mets over the course of his career?

            2. … and normally a club has to offer the drafted player 60% of slot to get the “make up” pick the following year. However, that only applies to prospects who take part in the program where he goes through a pre-draft physical. Rocker did not sit down for that physical prior to last summer’s event, so the Mets got this year’s pick w/o offering Rocker any money/bonus.

            3. Well I saw a report from Jon Paul Morosi that Rocker did indeed have some form of surgery to the shoulder area in Sept last year.

              We all pretty much know the rule on surgery… elbows ok shoulders not so much.

              He also did mention that some teams in the NL East that might be worried about catching the Mets could be potential fits for Rocker as some do view him as potential fit out of a BP

  1. Happy 4th everyone! Jim didn’t add comments to his post, so I just want to say, thank you for this site, period! KLaw did an article on Jersey Shore. Loves Painter, likes Abel, but significantly less. Sees possibilities in McGarry and Brown. Hitting gets a real negative. Bring this up because we have been talking alot about Pitching possibilities. Is there a real good hit tool who may slide to us?

  2. .

    ⬇ Tomorrow is here. ⬇

    17. Philadelphia Phillies

    Brandon Barriera, LHP, IMG Academy

    “The Phillies have been connected to Barriera in just about every conceivable way possible. I’ll leave it at that. If it’s not Barriera, look for Gilbert here with the outside shot of Hjerpe or late-rising lefty Jake Bennett in this spot.”

    ************

    The smoke connecting the Phillies to Barriera is really become thick. But I’m still having a hard time seeing the team drafting a prep pitcher in round one for the third year in a row (unless it’s Dylan Lesko or Brock Porter).
    In this Prospects Live mock (4.0), they have Porter going to the NYMs at 1-14, and Lesko taken at 1-15 by the SDPs.
    They also have Kumar Rocker at 1-13 to the LAAs. They include this note: “There are rumors of a pre-draft deal already complete between Rocker and a team, though that’ll likely never come to light before the event itself.” I’m (this is me, Hinkie, talking now) not ruling out Boras and Dombrowski/Middleton as that team. I understand, and agree with what Howard posted a few days ago: the agent has no bearing on a team’s pick. But I just feel this situation is unique. Boras has strong ties to Dombrowski/Middleton. Rocker’s signing bonus may take a dent (age/injury concerns) this time around. But the Phils may present Rocker with the fastest track to MLB (maybe this season), and the most expedient way to earn more money (MLB salary/more direct route to arbitration & free agency). Again … I’m not predicting anything. Just putting it out there as a possibility.
    One last thing … Prospects Live has Connor Prielipp falling to the Braves at 1-20. I would pick Prielipp at 1-17 (in this scenario) if I was Brian Barber.

    1. I like Joe Doyle. He’s a good guy. But he seems to have less meaningful information about first rounders than others.

      Mock drafts are for the most part a silly exercise and this one was sillier than it should have been, as he forgot to include Brooks Lee in his original version. Therefore, he went back and revised his first round and now has Brock Porter to the Phillies.

      Wishful thinking but I would be very pleased with that result.

  3. It doesnt seem like aside from fan discussion sites, any actual source has linked the Phillies to Rocker. Its ashame if hes there and they dont take him imo, but I do get the injury concern. he should be ok now though if what they are saying is true.

    Id either want Rocker or a bat, enough with the prep pitchers. As good as Abel and Painter have been, this org needs plus bats more than anything

    1. Agree. The Phillies have “bought” enough bats for the time being, and can’t afford paying mucho dinero for many more, so they need some to start emerging from the farm. So I’m okay with Rocker if all boxes in question are checked, but a bat (preferably college) would be my ideal. But in any case, someone closer to the Show than a prepster.

      1. The Phillies need to go best player available. That said, I would prefer that the Phillies go pitching. The Phillies are locked into LF (Schwarber), RF (Harper), 3B (Bohm), SS (Stott), C (Realmuto), DH (Castellanos). All those guys are there for 3+ years AFTER this season. That leaves CF (could be Vierling), 2B (could be Maton), 1B (could be Hall).

        For the starting rotation:

        Suarez (3 years)
        Wheeler (2 years)
        Nola (1 year, option picked up)
        Eflin (FA)
        Gibson (FA)

        The Phillies will need starting pitching in the worst way very soon. Drafting a college pitcher who could be fast tracked would help a lot.

        1. I agree. Fans tend to want to draft based on needs and that’s not how it works. Needs change, constantly. Clubs draft the best player available. If the Phillies deem the best player available is a pitcher when they pick at #17 then they’ll select him.

          1. I looked at what the Angels did last year…they have a dearth of pitching in their system, and need some quality arms soon to get them in the play-offs while Trout is at his best, and Ohtani is still there….so not just being satisfied with Bachman at 9 last year, they said, ‘what the heck’..might as well go for the next 19 picks with pitchers. Their whole draft was a need oriented draft

            https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=ANA&year_ID=2021&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_year&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0

            1. You can use the Angels 2021 draft as an example but it’s overstated, in my opinion. A rare exception due to a confluence of circumstances with an owner that will no longer spend money on multi-year contracts for top pitchers in the market and a new GM overcompensating due to ownership behavior and prior bad decisions. Minasian is operating in an unusual climate and felt he had to do what he did, whether you thought it was over the top or not. Most clubs and analysts thought it was over the top.

              Once you get later in the draft, remaining talent value evens out. Do clubs fill in some gaps at that point? Sure, but those guys aren’t making the majors an overwhelming majority of the time.

              Ohtani will be long gone before 2021 drafted pitching rounds into shape, if it ever does. The only way the Angels make a legitimate run while he’s still there – free agency (which I noted is not really a meaningful option) or trades. You need talent to make trades and drafting the best players get you more in trades.

              The Angels are in purgatory. They have some elite talent but not enough to surround them. They are big spenders but are entirely uneven in how they spend. Prior talent was traded away by trader Jerry and a panicked Billy Eppler. People want to compare them to the Phillies but Middleton has proven he’ll spend what is necessary, regardless of position. The Angels will likely remain in limbo until they have an ownership change. In the meantime, you’ll see some weird choices made.

      2. I don’t see that as a legitimate issue at least in the short term. I think pitching tends to be the most valuable commodity. It would be nice to draft/develop some position players but they have had two graduate (Bohm, and Stott) and have some nice role players come up (Vierling, Marchan, Maton, etc).

        Hypothetically, if you take another pitcher this year does that make it easier to trade Abel for a CF (which lessens the need to develop that player)?

        I think it’s easier to find bats/position players in FA and I’m a big fan of platoons and being creative with the line up.

  4. Hey guys – with Ben Joyce from Tennessee hitting a 105.3 mph, maybe 105.5, it was nuts. What do you guys think about him being able to replicate that in majors? Curious if college baseball is using the same style ball/allowing that tacky grip substance that without it .. would knock his fastball ball down. That and the radar gun brand. I’ve heard it make a difference.

  5. Romus … in regards to your post near the top of this thread. You are hoping the Phillies can save 1M-2M with the 1-17 pick to spend on the third round pick or beyond.
    After doing some research, it seems more likely the club could save hundreds of thousands of dollars instead of million(s) of dollars … at least that’s what recent history shows. Over the last five drafts (since 2017), teams selecting in the middle-to-late first round, typically pocket only six figures. Here is a list of the largest bonus savers⤵

    2021
    Giants 1-14 Will Bednar 4.04M slot got 3.65M = ~$400,000
    Cardinals 1–18 Michael McGreevy 3.48M slot got 2.75M = ~$750,000
    Padres 1-27 Jackson Merrill 2.57M slot got 1.8M = ~$750,000

    2020
    Rangers 1-14 Justin Foscue 4.04M slot got 3.25M = ~$800,000
    Red Sox 1-17 Nick Yorke 3.61M slot got 2.7M = ~$900,000
    DBacks 1-18 Bryce Jarvis 3.48M slot got 2.65M = ~$850,000
    Guardians 1-23 Carson Tucker 2.93M slot got 2M = ~$900,000
    Braves 1-25 Jared Shuster 2.74M slot got 2.2M = ~$550,000

    2019
    Cubs 1-27 Ryan Jensen 2.57M slot got 2M = ~$550,000
    Brewers 1-28 Ethan Small 2.49M slot got 1.8M = ~$700,000

    2018
    Rangers 1-15 Cole Winn 3.74M slot got 3.15M = ~$600,000
    Twins 1-20 Trevor Larnach 3.12M slot got 2.55M = ~$600,000

    2017
    Yankees 1-16 Clarke Schmidt 3.46M slot got 2.18M = ~1.3M

    You can see the Yankees were the outlier when they pocketed 1.3M. Schmidt was recovering from TJ at that time. So … if recent history is any indication, the most reasonable way Brian Barber “might” save >1M is to draft an injured thrower (not named Prielipp or Lesko). Would you draft any of Reggie Crawford, Peyton Pallette, or Hunter Barco to save 1.3M?

    1. Hinkie …good information.
      If the Phillies can pocket $750K from 17th to add to the 93rd or later high ceiling guy I would be happy…if that is what it takes to get him signed.
      And as far as Crawford, Pallet or Barco ….yes….all arns that were alive prior to their TJ surgeries…to take at 17, I would pass
      They need an arm ….if a college guy, that may be in Philly by the end of 2023 or mid-2024.
      At this point I would think Dave D is thinking expediency..

  6. Remember the name Reuben Livingston. He was invited to a private workout today at CBP. My friends son was in attendance as they became good friends on the showcase circuit. Big fella tons of raw power.

    Was committed to Kent State but the coach left so he decommitted and will go JUCO in South FL if not drafted

  7. .

    17. Phillies: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Tri-City ValleyCats (Frontier League)
    It’s still hard to pinpoint where Rocker will land, but the industry consensus is that it will happen in the back half of the first round. Philadelphia took high school pitchers Mick Abel and Andrew Painter with its previous two first-rounders, and could go for three in a row with Barriera or Snelling.

  8. I’m looking at the guys projected behind us and if we want a pitcher I’d say stick with Barriera if he’s still there.

    Rocker I mean how can you NOT be intrigued but shoulders scare the bejesus out of me…see one Spencer Howard.

    If we want position player go Peyton Graham 20 HRs and 30 steals a 1.015 OPS with pure athleticism sign me up….

    1. DMAR….Graham can play anywhere it appears…..third for two years at Okla., shortstop for awhile, and has the arm for RF.
      He has the raw tools for sure.
      But are you getting another Casey Martin?
      Look at his collegian peripherals….21% K rate….batted ball.365 with a fairly low BA for college- .317
      He may have a hair too much swing and miss.

      https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/player/226324/

      1. The article states he toned down his approach quite a bit to start getting that average and OBP to a respectable number. Don’t think Martin ever OPS’d over a 1.000 in college.

        but yes I see your point we don’t want a repeat of that especially in round 1

      2. Romus I’m cherry picking of course but looking just at his season past

        335/417/640 Slug/1.058 OPS 17 doubles, 4 trips, 20 HRs; 28 BBs to 69 Ks for an 8% and 21%

        ….yeah I’d like for that BB rate to be a little higher but it appears they were pitching to him and he was doing damage when they did. I actually like him as a CF

        1. DMAR…not sure the Phillies are looking at a position player….all the beat people reports and mocks have them leaning pitching….and do not think Graham will be there at 93.

  9. The Athletic did their draft having the team’s beat writers make the pick and Matt Gelb has us with Brock Porter. I have seen him mocked to us before and I would not be unhappy to get him.

    1. Just came to post that, Matt. But you beat me to it. LOL.

      .

      Any of Prielipp, Lesko, Rocker (if Dr approved), Porter, or Hjerpe (in that order) would be great with me.

  10. 17. Philadelphia Phillies | Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage HS (Fla.)
    The Phillies have taken prep arms in the first round two years in a row already, and could certainly make it a third. This seems like Brock Porter’s floor if he were to fall some, with Snelling also in play. We’ve heard Tennessee outfielder Drew Gilbert mentioned here as well.

  11. .

    I always enjoy Kiley McDaniels’ work. He has his own opinions, and when he publishes mocks (he has a couple coming out over the next two weeks), he usually includes useful insider info.
    Here are some of his rankings for guys who have been mentioned as possible Phillie targets⬇️

    8 Dylan Lesko
    11 Drew Gilbert
    16 Brandon Barriera
    17 Connor Prielipp
    18 Cooper Hjerpe
    19 Cole Young
    20 Spencer Jones
    21 Justin Crawford
    22 Cade Horton
    24 Brock Porter
    30 Gabriel Hughes
    32 Robby Snelling
    33 Peyton Graham
    37 Peyton Pallette
    38 Justin Campbell
    41 Jackson Ferris
    54 Kumar Rocker
    61 Hunter Barco
    63 Reggie Crawford

    He also has Ben Joyce @ 91. The Phillues 3rd round pick is #93. So there’s that possibility.

  12. Hi guys. Nice to see all of your names again. I have a draft question for anyone who may have info. A friend of mine nephew Keaton Mahan prior to season was considered the #1 outfield prospect in Indiana. Signed with Ohio State. Coach got fired. Landed at TCU. Last I heard that was now a possibility. Anyone have any info on Keaton with upcoming draft? He is an Indiana Bulls kid from Westfield.

    Matt13, Romus. Quick 15U prospect update. Team 17-10. Won 10 of last 12. Prospect is 3-1. 23 IP. 2 ER. Cincy this week.

    1. Don … Ohio State fired Greg Beals after 12 years at the school. Before heading the Buckeyes, he was head coach at Ball St (which may explain his recruiting success in Indiana). Beals hasn’t landed another job yet (as far as I know). Ohio State hired Bill Mosiello, who comes to them from TCU (as an assistant coach). So I don’t see a TCU connection for Keaton Mahan. It appears Mahan is still committed to Ohio State. Maybe he gets picked in the draft later this month, and skips college. That remains to be seen.

  13. Hi Hinkie. I must have mistaken what his uncle told me. I missed the TCU to Ohio State. I thought he said OSU coach went to TCU as an assistant. My mistake.

    I went to Ball State after coming back from South Alabama. About a half hour from here.
    Keaton is a real nice player. The Bulls guys thought he would get drafted but not sure how high and if he would bypass college.

    Thanks Hinkie. I miss you guys. All of you.

    1. Great to hear from you, Don.
      Did you happen to cross paths with David Letterman during your time at Ball State?
      And I watched some video of your friend’s nephew. Keaton Mahan looks like he has a nice lefty swing. Not sure he’ll get picked next week, but you never know. He’ll have a chance to raise his profile at Ohio State, and wouldn’t be surprised to see him get drafted in 2025. Mahan will probably play in the OF alongside Kade Kern in 2023 at Ohio State. Kern is having a very good college career, and will get selected in the top couple (maybe three) rounds of next summer’s draft.

  14. No pitchers in the top 14

    15. Dylan Lesko
    16. Brock Porter
    17. Carson Whisenhunt
    18. Drew Gilbert
    22. Brandon Barriera
    23. Justin Crawford
    26. Peyton Graham
    27. Jacob Berry
    28. Connor Prielipp
    30. Gabriel Hughes
    31. Robby Snelling
    33. Kumar Rocker
    56. Cooper Hjerpe
    58. Peyton Pallette
    76. Hunter Barco
    80. Spencer Jones
    82. Reggie Crawford
    92. Ryan Cermak ⬅ Look here. Phillies pick @ #93 🎯
    93. Cade Horton

  15. Hinkie…not to my knowledge. I was on campus from the Fall of 72 thru Spring of 76. I had some courses from South Alabama that Ball State did not take so I had to go a little extra.
    I am not sure when Dave was at Ball State or when he graduated.
    It would be funny if Phillies drafted Keaton somewhere along the way. I do not think he had as good of Senior season as he did last year as a Junior. He has played in numerous Showcase events over the years, so he has had exposure to scouts.

  16. Hinkie…Just missed Dave. Isn’t Horton the Oklahoma pitcher who pitched the 2nd championship game vs Miss? If so, he sure looked good that day. BP guy who came in not so good. He and catcher kinda gave that game and title away.

  17. Glad to hear from you, Don. When does your Grandson’s school year start? My Grandkids, in Florida, are early August. Hinkie, your last minute guess on who we draft? Lesko, Porter, Prielipp, Barriera all, in various mocks, seem to be on our short list.

  18. Hinkie, KLaw just did another Mock with us getting Whisenhunt from East Carolina. I don’t remember seeing his name before mocked to us. He has Porter going #10, Barriera going #13 and Lesko going #15. Just the latest one I have seen, not the biggest Klaw fan. In his write up he says he has hears we are disinclined to go HS arm again. I am disinclined to believe that. I think that Barber has his Board that they have put together, and if the BPA is a HS arm, we draft him.

  19. Hi Matt….I think Aug. 10th. Lots in Indiana go back in July. Many schools are a balanced calendar. He has had a real good Summer. He has only given up 3 ER in 27 IP. But last 2 games his infield defense let him down. Against an All-Star team from Canada a week ago in final game infield committed 5 errors and a PB in 1st 2 innings. 8 runs. 1 earned. Then last Saturday at Xavier in Cincy 3 errors and 6 runs. 1 earned again. I think this week is final tourney of Summer. Football starts soon here. A funny. A week ago, he played 3 basketball games on a Wed and 2 baseball games on Thurs. Busy, busy kid.
    I am hoping the Phillies can add some early picks who can move quickly through the system
    Really great hearing from you. Take care..

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