Open Discussion: Week of November 21, 2021

This is the courtesy thread for comments and discussion about the Phillies and other BASEBALL topics.  Thank you Matt for having my back.  I hope it all amounts to nothing.  Happy Thanksgiving everybody!

It was a busy week for the Phillies.  They hired an Assistant GM, a Special Assistant to the GM, finished second in the NL Cy Young race, won the NL MVP award, claimed a pitcher off waivers, traded 3 low-level prospects for MLB ready depth at catcher and pitcher, added 4 players from within to the 40-man roster, re-signed a FA pitcher, signed another FA pitcher, signed two more international free agents, saw their prospects “jobbed” out of an opportunity to play in the AFL championship game, and won the AFL’s Stetson Award.

Some surprising things this week are that the Phillies are actually announcing things timely, one of the benefits of a new PR guy (?), and Jon Heyman has actually been accurate on some of his posts on Twitter.  At least the ones about the Phillies.  The keyword is some.  But, he hasn’t been as annoying as in recent years.  Yet.

The new AGM is Anirudh Kilambi.  He’s out of the Rays’ organization.  He’ll oversee the Phillies R&D division. He will hopefully be able to correct some of the deficiencies getting the information from the nerds to the coaches in language that will be helpful.

Special Assistant Howie Kendrick will report to Sam Fuld.  They also hired Brian Kaplan as assistant pitching coach and director of pitching development and Jason Camilli as assistant hitting coach to recently hired Kevin Long.

Zach Wheeler finished second in the NL CY Young race, Bryce Harper won the NL MVP, and Logan O’Hoppe won the AFL Dernell Stenson Sportsmanship Award.

Additions and subtractions include re-signing RHP Tyler Phillips; claiming LHP Emanuel Kent off waivers; signing FA RHP Bubby Rossman, IFA OF Jerffson Pena, IFA RHP Adilson Peralta; trading for C Garrett Stubbs, C Donny Sands, RHP Nick Nelson for low-level prospects 3B TJ Rumfield, OF Logan Cerny, and DSL LHP Joel Valdez; recalling Simon Muzziotti (last month); releasing DSL RHP Wilberson Liendo (back in August); and selecting the contracts of SS Luis Garcia, RHP James McArthur, and RF Jhailyn Ortiz in preparation for the Rule 5 draft.

The Peoria Javelinas, the team our AFL prospects were on, were told Friday morning that if they won and Surprise beat Glendale, they would qualify for the championship game against Mesa.  After the game, they were told a different tie-breaker would be used and Surprise would represent their division. I got this information from one of the Javelinas players.  I’m not surprised, The Saguras had the Yankees’ prospects on their team and the game was televised nationally on MLB.  $$$

We’re getting close to the end of the current CBA.  I’ve been expecting a lockout at the earliest possible date.  However, I don’t know if that is as likely to happen as early as I expected.  In spite of early reports of a huge gulf between the parties, it appears that negotiations are moving along.  One of the best indicators is that the usual water carriers for the owners aren’t reporting negatively as they were during the 2020 COVID/schedule negotiations.

I’ve also seen the impatience in the comments for some action by the Phillies.  Rest assured that the wheels are turning.  I’m not referring to the minor moves above, but actual offers to real players.  The Phillies are in on a lot of the players as reported in social media, not all but a lot.  They’ve even made offers to several free agents.

FWIW, I believe that DD would like to avoid losing a draft pick or trading our top prospects.  I think that trades will be made to acquire a SS and closer.  I think that the rest of the holes will be filled through free agency.  If things can’t go according to plan, I believe only then will he dip into prospect capital.  Signing a QO guy is still less likely.  Not only is there a penalty but that player will likely command a larger contract that DD can afford.  Oh, I also believe that he’s not going over the tax threshold as things stand now.

Rosters and Stuff

Key Dates: Most dates have been confirmed.  Some are guesstimates based on previous years.  Italics are those dates that will be dependent on the new CBA, dates in BOLD text are confirmed.

  • October 5, 2021: Opening Day for the Mexican Pacific League ( thru 12/23)
  • October 13, 2021: Opening Day for the Arizona Fall League
  • October 23, 2021: Opening Day for the Venezuelan Winter League (thru 12/22)
  • October 27, 2021: Opening Day for Dominican Winter League (thru 12/17)
  • November 3, 2021: Trading resumes, start of the 5-day  “quiet period” before free agency
  • November 6, 2021: Opening Day for the Roberto Clemente’ Puerto Rico Professional Baseball League (thru 1/22/22)
  • November 7, 2021: Deadline for teams to make qualifying offers (QO) to their eligible former players who became free agents
  • November 14, 2021: Opening Day for the Colombian Winter League (ends the penultimate week of January)
  • November 17, 2021: Deadline for free agents to accept qualifying offers
  • November 8-11, 2021: GM Meetings (Carlsbad, CA)
  • November TBA: Owners meetings (Nov. 19-21, Arlington, TX in 2019)
  • November 19, 2021: Deadline to submit 40-man rosters before Rule 5 Draft
  • November TBA: MLBPA executive board meeting (Nov. 26-29 in Irving, TX in 2018)
  • December 1, 2021: CBA expires
  • December 2, 2021 – Non-tender Deadline – last day for teams to offer 2022 contracts to unsigned players (pre-arb and arb eligible) on their 40-man rosters.  Non-tendered players become free agents.
  • December 6-9, 2021: The 2021 Baseball Winter Meetings will take place at the Walt Disney World Swan and Dolphin in Orlando, Florida.
  • December 8, 2021: Rule 5 Draft
  • December 9, 2021: Opening Day for the Panamanian Baseball League (thru (January)
  • December 2021: The 2021-22 Australian Baseball League season was was cancelled in an announcement on October 20th.
  • December 15, 2021: Close of the 2020-21 international signing period
  • January TBA – Rookie Career Development Program
  • January 14, 2022: Deadline for teams and arb eligible players to submit salary figures to the arbiter
  • January 15, 2022 – Start of the 2021-22 international signing period (thru 12/15)
  • January 28,2022: Start of the Caribbean Series (thru 2/3, with one team from each winter league – Venezuela, Puerto Rico, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Colombia, and Panama)
  • February 16, 2022 – Voluntary spring training reporting date for pitchers, catchers, and players recovering from injuries
  • February 21, 2022 – Voluntary spring training reporting date for position players
  • February 23, 2022 – Mandatory spring training reporting date
    • February 26, 2022: at New York Yankees (Tampa), Time TBA
    • February 27, 2022: v. Minnesota Twins (Clearwater) (SS) 1:05 PM
  • March 31, 2022: Opening Day for 2022 season
  • March 31, 2022: Phillies season opener at Houston Astros
  • April 5, 2022: Lehigh Valley season opener at home v. Columbus
  • April 8, 2022: Phillies home opener v. Oakland A’s at 3:05 PM
  • April 8, 2022:  Clearwater season opener at home v. Fort Myers
  • April 8, 2022:  Jersey Shore season opener at home v. Aberdeen
  • April 8, 2022:  Reading season opener at home v. Somerset
  • July 2022: Rule 4 Amateur Draft

Transactions (2021 has been archived, 2022 began on October 5th)

11/19/2021 – Houston traded C Garrett Stubbs to Phillies for OF Logan Cerny
11/19/2021 – NYY traded RHP Nick Nelson and C Donny Sands to Phillies for 3B T.J. Rumfield and LHP Joel Valdez
11/19/2021 – Phillies selected the contract of SS Luis Garcia from Jersey Shore
11/19/2021 – Phillies selected the contract of RHP James McArthur from Reading
11/19/2021 – Phillies selected the contract of RF Jhailyn Ortiz from Reading
11/19/2021 – Phillies claimed LHP Kent Emanuel off waivers from Houston
11/16/2021 – Phillies signed FA RHP Adilson Peralta to a minor league contract
11/16/2021 – RHP Adilson Peralta assigned to DSL Phillies White
11/16/2021 – Phillies signed FA OF Jerffson Pena to a minor league contract
11/16/2021 – OF Jerffson Pena assigned to DSL Red
11/09/2021 – Phillies signed FA RHP Bubby Rossman to a minor league contract
11/09/2021 – RHP Bubby Rossman assigned to Jersey Shore
11/06/2021 – Phillies signed FA RHP Tyler Phillips to a minor league contract
11/06/2021 – RHP Tyler Phillips assigned to Reading
10/04/2021 – Phillies recalled CF Simon Muzziotti from Lehigh Valley
8/20/2021 – DSL Phillies Red released RHP Wilberson Liendo
8/20/2021 – Phillies released LHP Anton Kuznetsov
8/13-24/2021 – Phillies released RHP Brendan Bell

357 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of November 21, 2021

  1. i think i speak for a lot of us that we also greatly thank you, Matt, for “having Jim’s back”

  2. Jim’s ears seem to be telling of Stott sliding to 2b if in fact DD is zoning in on a SS, even via trade. Trying to imagine who. Nonetheless, interesting. And a trade for a closer? Hader or Kimbrel or ??? Sounds like trading for a CF would be plan C.

    1. ….and Hinkie! Tape an aspirin to it and get moving on a trade for a SS….glove first? One year guy, maybe?

    2. …and very encouraging on the CBA talks. Was wondering why we haven’t been hearing trash from either side. Plus early market activity is a good sign.

      1. mark … I thought Jim’s reporting of the team looking to trade for a SS was eye opening. Here’s a list of some possibilities:

        * Cleveland has some depth. Two former Mets could maybe be available
        Amed Rosario has 2 yrs of arb left (5M in 2022)
        Andrés Giménez has 5 yrs of team control left (2 pre arb)

        * The Cardinals may trade Paul DeJong. He’s under contract for 2 years + 2 club options (6.16M in 2022, 9.16M in 2023, but the AAV is only 4.33 thru the end of the deal).

        * Gotta’ believe the DBacks would trade Nick Ahmed. He has two years of team control left under a deal that accounts for a 8.125M AAV.

        * The Royals could make Nicky Lopez or Adalberto Mondesi available because Bobby Witt Jr will be playing SS for them in 2022.

        * A guy I really like (even listed him as my dark horse Phillies trade candidate this winter) is the Rangers’ Isiah Kiner-Falefa. He can play all over the infield (can even catch). He’s a plus defender (won a GG as a 3Bman in 2020 & totaled a 2.0 dWAR as a SS in 2021). He has 2 years of arb left (4.9M in 2022). Kiner-Falefa may be expendable because (Texas’ top prospect) Josh Jung is ready for 3B in 2022, and the team is one of the favorites to land one of the FA SS’s.

        * Speaking of the historic FA class. I recently read Chaim Bloom may quietly be shopping in that aisle. If he lands Correa, or Seager, or Semien, or Story, he could conceivably trade Xander Bogaerts. DD liked Bogaerts enough to ink him to his current LTX. Bogaerts is still under contract for 4 more years @ 80M (20M AAV).

        * Last … but certainly not least … (and my favorite scenario!) … maybe DD swings a deal with Oakland where he takes back Elvis Andrus to lower the price on Ramon Laureano (the true target of the deal). Andrus (who is grossly overpaid) would count for 8.25M AAV Laureano has 3 arb years remaining (2.8M in 2022), which means the Phillies would spend ~11M next season on a SS (w/no bat and an avg glove), and CF (who is a human highlight reel, and one of my favorite players in MLB). One note: Laureano will miss the first month of 2022 completing his PED suspension.

        1. Hinkie, the 2 more intriguing packages among your list are Arizona’s Ahmed (along with Ketel Marte who can play CF and be a fallback at 2b) and Andrus/Laureano from Oakland.

          1. mark … I would warn against Ketel Marte being able to play CF. For me, he’s incapable of handling that position. I don’t even see him as an avg defender in a corner OF spot (although, if he hits enough, he could end up in LF).

        2. Xander Bogaerts. Hmm. He would certainly bring something to the party, so long as we can avoid giving up top prospects. His salary alone should count toward a lesser cost, talent wise. Who would you offer to Bloom?

          1. IMO Boston would probably want a MLB ready pitcher, a top prospect, and a lottery ticket (or two). So maybe Dombrowski would give up one of Eflin/Gibson, plus Rafael Marchan (who could help the BoSox immediately), and a guy like Christian McGowan.

        3. Amed Rosario is a creative solution to our SS problem (could also be a CF option as long been speculated with him). Wonder what it would take to land him. Cleveland could be a good place for Haseley to develop and come into his own.

          1. So not interest in either of these Mets’ castoffs.
            Move forward.
            For much much less and will probably be similar in stats.

  3. The team should look towards improving defense at SS and CF and look for hitting improvements at LF.
    I do think they will go after a SP who will likely slot in the 3rd or 4th position in the rotation.

  4. Jim a version I got from a person who lives in PHX concerning the AFL was that Peoria was tied with Surprise in overall wins and in head-to-head games 3-3 but the next tie-breaker was runs allowed and Peoria lost that tie-breaker +1. Glendale which was also tied in overall wins with Peoria and Surprise lost in head-to-head games with those two teams and was not eligible..

    1. That was the after-game explanation the team received. It was not what the team was told before the game. When I asked about the tie-breaker change, the player said, “Not sure what it originally was but we were told if we win and they (Surprise) win we get in.”

      1. The two announcers during the Peoria game repeatedly stated that Peoria needed Surprise to win when Glendale held an early lead. And, repeatedly stated that Surprise’s rally was benefitting Peoria who were sure to go to the championship if Surprise’s lead held up. (Peoria was leading 6-0 late in their game at that time.)

        However, Kyle Glasser WAS reporting differently on Twitter while attending the other game. So, maybe just some actual confusion.

        Based on the outcome of the championship game though, it certainly appears that the weakest team from the West division participated.

  5. Joel Sherman of NY Daily News reports (from MLBTR) that the Yankees may not sign a long term SS from among the top 5 but instead wait out the market since 2 of their top prospects are SS’s who are within 2 years away from the majors.

    On the outfield….would Dombrowski possibly jump Suzuki’s market by blowing the rivals out of the water with an offer of 6/$90M? That’s a $15M AAV. He’s projected for a roughly $12M AAV over 4 or 5 years. Yes, there’s some risk, but considering Suzuki will debut as a major leaguer in his age 28 season and profiles as a 3 position candidate, I would give it a shot.

    1. Volpe and Peraza are a year to a year and half out from MLB debuts, from most reports.
      Plus Gleyber may be on the move, and they will entertain Gary Sanchez offerings, as few as they may be, if any at all.

    2. No he won’t. There’s more money to pay his Japan team as a % of the deal which would make this expensive

  6. I’m sure this has been touched on before but what does an Ohtani contract extension or FA contract look like? Could he argue to be paid 60m a year bc of playing both positions at a high level? It’s crazy to think what it he could logically ask for.

    1. EricD……do not think they will go up to approx. 10% over Trout’s AAV.
      IMO, $38M to $40M rabge AAV
      Moreno better hope the Lux Tax does not go down from the $210M now…many owners want it down to a $180M ceiling with a floor of $100M or so.

      1. Romus, I thought the $180 was just a scare tactic aimed at the association when floors were introduced. However, if it’s serious, I would think they would have to grandfather in the existing over-the-limit organizations and give them time to get down under the newer lower limit. Would be unfair to penalize them for past practices that were within the rules.

        1. Yeah……agree.
          I thought about those over the top teams .
          A team like the Dodgers would never get under it…….but the penalties could also change…..8 more days and counting.
          Harper said something the other day…and not sure if he was correct…..first he said the season wil not be in joepardy, it will start on time, then he mentioned, even is an extension of the current CBA is approved by both sides.

          I did not know they could extend the current CBA.
          Never heard Manfredd ever mention it.
          I guess like the US govt does with budget hang-ups……..they would employ a contnuiing resolution.

    2. Eric, It’s an interesting topic to watch from afar, but if I’m Ohtani, I ask for 40-45 mil a year. I think that eventually what he gets. He is a good pitcher, but he is not elite elite to command 30 mil as a pitcher, imo. Most of the value comes from his bat. I think 40 mil AAV would be pretty fair, and 35 mil AVV would be a steal. The issue you have is, if he get injured, 2 roster spots need to be filled, so I can’t see giving 60 mil just for the sheer fact of his replacement cost. At minimum he will cost 2 mlb minimum salaries. Regardless, very interesting to me to see how this is handled. It looks like a few more batter/pitcher players are making their way into baseball

      1. Angels will have most of their 40 salarycommitment tied up in three players…Ohtani, Trout and Rendon….almost $115M AAV….then they have to pay the other 37 guys whatever falls off the table.

      2. Ohtani is an outstanding player but on the Angels, he’ll only continue to be little more than a side show. Their roster and system are so disjointed that he’s basically a nose ring on a pig’s snout. Whatever they pay him above $30M AAV is a waste because that money needs to address so many other needs. LAA would be better off trading him for a lion’s share from a good organization.

  7. Would anyone do:

    Phillies get: (1 year [8.9M AAV] + a club option of) Kevin Kiermairer and (two arb years of) Tyler Glasnow (Glasnow will make 5.8M in 2022, but won’t pitch until 2023, his last year of team control)
    Rays get: Kyle Gibson, Matt Vierling, and Griff McGarry

    I’m not endorsing or opposing this deal. Just wondering what others think.

    1. Kiermairer……….I read the scoop on him in MLBTR……are you really that high on this guy? Seems he is very Quinnesque in his ability to stay on the field, although he hits for a higher average than Quinn, which almost anyone does. As for your offerings, I would like to see how Vierling turns out, but if they aren’t going to play him anyway, meh. I hope we have better options, really. I don’t see him as a difference maker, more of a complimenter.

        1. Only because they’re bad ideas. I don’t say no to good ideas. Give me a good idea and I’ll say great to it.

        2. Kiermairer is an excellent glove, and even more impressive arm. He’s also a helluva clubhouse guy (that’s an under-the-radar need for the Phillies).
          … And I think most of you are failing to see the forest for the trees. The deal would also land a SP1B. Glasnow won’t throw in 2022, but should be healed from TJ, and ready to go in 2023. A potential 2023 rotation of Wheeler/Nola/Glasnow/Saurez would match almost any other in MLB). Dombrowski would get just the one year of on field performance of Glasnow, but he could hit him with a QO after 2023 to ensure the club would at least receive a draft pick if they lose him.

          1. Kiermaier in CF and Schwarber in LF would do. Perhaps there would be enough cash on hand to sign Canha to be a righty hitting LF/1B/DH/PH floater for 2/$24M.

          2. Hinkie….Kevin K may be a slightly better version of ….remember Matt K’s Angel bud,
            glove-man, Peter Bourjos


            I think Murray could have a correct call on this play.
            I mean…..Dave D better not give up much for him if he does go for him..
            And like I said before…if the Rays ask for Haseley….back out.

            1. Hinkie….yeah is a better version….however, you do know KK’s bWAR career total is mostly defensive ladened….17dWAR.
              Look I am not against going for him…..just do not get skunked in the process.

              I do not want another Curtis Mead story.

  8. Jim, appreciate the peak behind the curtain of the FO. It helps calm the nerves. Glad to see the FO looking to maximize its positions by signing FA. They can improve the team without giving up on prospects. If the prospects develop, then it hedges their bet. They can trade the FA or move them to the bench 🙂

    I’ve tried to post longer comments on my thoughts on how to improve the team & just squeak under the 210 million mark. Most of those scenarios involved trading Segura to clear salary space. Segura is a very good player, not a fan of seeing him go, but i think the team will be better overall with combination of trading him & signing FA/trades. They might be able to move him to 3rd, but will see.

  9. Murray, My first choice is Starling Marte, but I am concerned that with so many teams possibly in on him, my hopes for a 3 year deal is unrealistic. I don’t mind Kiermaier as a defensive upgrade in CF because we need to improve our D dramatically. That means we need a real hitter in LF. My original hope was SMarte, Schwarber and Knebel. I know you don’t like either KK or JBJ, so I’m wondering where you feel the improvements will come from?

    1. I agree with you that Marte is the 1st choice but the comp to get him will be tough. I know they’re talking to the Pirates about Reynolds but the asset cost will be high. I like K Marte although I saw Hinke’s note that he’s a bad CF. That surprised me. I do like the idea of a trade for a CF but the two expensive defensive only guys don’t thrill me. Laureano would be a nice get and I think there are other guys like that. Buxton is a huge risk. I’m not opposed to Schwarber in LF but he’s really bad out there. He’ll need help in CF.

        1. And just to think this time last year…Reynolds would have only cost Rafael Marchan and probably one of Mickey Mo, or Adam Haseley or Roman Quinn….. 🙂
          Man, how things have changed in one year.

          1. According to Jim Bowden and Jon Heyman (of course) the Phillies are “aggressively pursuing” Reynolds, along with the Yankees and Marlins as well as other teams not mentioned by name.

            1. Yankees probably would give up Peraza, a pitcher from their system like Gil, Garcia or Medina, or two of them…and maybe an oFer like Pereira.

  10. Rojas, Marchan and Miller is about as high as I would go, mark. If I trade Bohm, who plays 3B?, although I would consider trading him in a Chapman deal. I am not trading Abel, and adding Suarez to that group is a most definite no, So, I am probably not getting Reynolds, and if that is the price, I am ok looking elsewhere.

  11. The Phillies gave Archie Bradley $6M last season. If they want him back, I don’t think they should give him half of that. He seems to be getting injured even more nowadays.

  12. Angels signed Aaron Loup for 2 years/$17M. Does that seem a little pricey to anyone? Does anyone regret we didn’t sign him?

      1. jim, I thought that was very high. I had interest in Loup, but not close to that number. The Giants bring back DeSclafani at 3/$36M, which I don’t find to be excessive.

          1. As mentioned previously by one of our esteemed contributors, relievers are so unpredictable especially one like Loup. One year he might be worth $9/ million and the next year he should give it back. Got to be careful with these pitchers.

      2. Moreno seems to like to overpay his contractors.
        I’d probably would be in the 2 yrs $12M area.
        But releivers…sheesh…you never know from year to year.

    1. They can have him for that price is my attitude. Relievers are notoriously volatile. He could have a 4.00 + ERA in 2022. And they get to have him for another year after that – and with an option ? He had a spectacular year and was the best of the Loogys. He earned it…but that was past performance.

      1. Ohtani is probably licking his chops right about now.
        Next season is arb3 (2023)….if he doesn’t sign an extension this year, then he will probably be in the Betts range in his final arb year…..$26M or so
        Angels top three …Trout, Rendon and Upton for 2022…..$101M total.

  13. In my younger days a boss I had was a wise sage, as an Executive Recruiter I would present candidates with some added superlatives and he world say, ” you can’t put lipstick on a pig because it is still a pig”. Let’s think this way with some of our suggestions of FAs and trades.

    1. Lipstick on a pig .. one of my favorite sayings. Just for the hell of it, I’d like to post my a picture of me putting lipstick on an actually pig “there I did it” 😃… now we can all say it … you can’t put lipstick on a pig… unless of course, you are Tac3

  14. Romus, there is a precedent for playing under a former CBA after it expires, and playing under it until a new CBA is ratified. (CBA-7, Jan. 1, 1990 through Dec. 31, 1993 with Fay Vincent as the commissioner.) However, negotiations were so contentious that the players’ struck during the season and there was no world series in 1994. (The owners didn’t like the job Vincent did and brought in Selig. The rest is history.)

    It comes down to a game of chicken. The owners lose their negotiating advantage of a lockout once the season starts. That’s when the players gain an advantage with their ability to strike. It does them no good to strike now when they aren’t receiving a paycheck.

    The only sports bet I would make is that the owners will not start the season without a new CBA.

    1. Ok Jim..thanks for that info……and wow, thirty years ago…..Bryce must have been talking to Scott Boras about that, since Boras was probably fairly fresh on the scene back then as a retired former player…and an agent in the making.

  15. The Guardians of the Cleveland Galaxy are really lighting up the transaction board today!
    They are not waiting around for the CBA to be finalized.

  16. Report of Phils going after Reynolds

    “To acquire Reynolds, the Phillies will most likely have to give up one of Mick Abel, Andrew Painter or Bryson Stott as well as a few other top 30 prospects”

    Imo a package of only one of Stott, Abel or Painter plus others is good enough for 3rd place. I know we are all high on Stott and I like him a lot personally. But he is not a top 100 prospect on most national lists. Reynolds is a gold glove caliber defender with an elite hit tool and an insanely low salary. He is one of the most valuable players in mlb. Hard to see him not fetching a top 25 prospect and we don’t have one of those. So imo to get him it takes Stott, Rojas or Painter, O’Hoppe (that hurts to type) plus something else of real value.

    1. Absolutely agree with v1. I’ve posted numerous times it would take at least two (probably three of) Painter/Abel/Rojas/Stott to land Reynolds.

    2. I wish it didn’t take that much, but if the pirates do move what is essentially going to be the face of their franchise, it will take an insane haul from the Phillies. It is a gamble of sorts as well, as Reynolds doesn’t have the track record yet you’d like to see for what it’s going to take to get him. It would hurt to lose Stott. Not crazy about trading o’hoppe but the Phillies have realmuto and they seem to develop catchers more than most other teams. Getting Reynolds and then turning around and signing Semien is ideal to me to improve the offense. It should lead to more runs scored, by clogging the bases with 3 of the leagues top 10 total base players. I’m not a analytics guy, but adding those 2 with Bryce has a good chance of taking the offense into the 5+ runs per game avg

      Here is a counter :
      Bohm, Painter, O’Hoppe …& Sir A
      Saurez, Bohm, Marchan & miller

      Probably not enough or too much.

      1. Assume Rojas would go since he’s otherwise our future CF.

        O’Hoppe’s recent surge makes him attractive yet catcher Henry Davis currently sits as the Pirates #1 prospect with a 2024 ETA, so maybe Cherington would want somebody else. Marchan would slot in immediately on the big league club.

        A power bat in the ranks newly added to the 40 man roster is Jhailyn Ortiz.

        Let’s also assume we would lose one of either Abel or Painter, along with another top 10 pitching prospect, perhaps Erik Miller.

        I can surrender Stott ONLY if a top SS was going to be signed. Semien is also my preference. But at the end of the day I don’t think DD lets Stott go. Reynolds may take us back to the days of Von Hayes as a 5-for-1…

        Rojas, Marchan, Abel, Ortiz and Miller would be a lot. I would reluctantly replace Marchan with O’Hoppe if Cherington insisted and value wise why wouldn’t he? If CF was a strong free agent market, we wouldn’t have this discussion but it is what it is…

      2. I worry people underestimate the incredible worth of Suarez – more than Painter and Abel combined. Painter and Abel have potential, but so did Kyle Drabek, and so does Spencer Howard.

        1. If Suarez is involved than that changes the package considerably. Imo Suarez is extremely valuable as well. He probably gets valued as a #3 starter but on a very cheap contract. A package of Suarez, Rojas + a few other prospects may be enough. But for Phils to give up Suarez, they are closing one hole and opening another. Now we need a SP. so not sure it makes sense.

          As I said before the season ended, IMO DD is all in on building the MLB and will sell the farm to do so. So I would expect that he would rather trade 2 of the top 3 prospects than Suarez.

        2. These deals frankly turn my stomach because, although Reynolds is of course very good, selling the farm ensures that this organization will not be able to get good and stay good. I’m not saying one top 5 guy and a 10-20 guy might not go in the right trade but selling the farm is a stupid desperation move that smart franchises almost never make except in the rarest of circumstances and not when they are coming off an 82-80 season – that’s what stupid teams like the Angels do.

          As for Spencer Howard, I don’t think he really has all that much potential at this point – sadly, he’s damaged goods.

          1. I would hope Dave D knows enough and been around long enough now, not to deplete the farm….at least the top half of the farm..
            Reynolds will command top prospect talent…so if he decides to go down that road… isn’t a drastic sell off.

          2. Agree 100%. We always ask why don’t we ever have homegrown superstar talent like some of the other clubs; if we keep trading all of our talent away, we certainly never will.

      3. I would be ecstatic if they valued Bohm more than Stott or Marchan more than O’Hoppe. But I doubt the Pirates would see it that way. Reynolds is an all-star under a rookie contract. Those type of players are rarely traded. Come to think of it, can anyone think of a comparable player/contract being traded? Maybe Yelich? But I think their contract situation was very different. Any other comps?

        1. How about Lou Brock ? or Jeff Bagwell – although he never played for Boston. Recently, maybe a Gio Urshela – yet he may be more of a “steal.” Brock might be the most reasonable comp but he had not become an All Star yet ?

          1. How about John Smiltz drafted by Tigers traded for Doyle Alenander or Fergie Jenkins (arg), Ryder Sandberg (double arg)?

            1. Denny… about something more recent and on topic…… Jan. 2018, Giants traded Bryan Reynolds, Kyle Crick, and $500K of international bonus monopoly slot money to the Pirates in exchange for Cutch and cash considerations…..then ranked Reynolds as Pittsburgh’s sixth best prospect going into the 2018 season.
              Reynolds was ranked 4th in the Giants org in 2016….and 4th in the Pirates org for 2017…then dropped to 6th in the Buccos org the following year.

            2. Y’all got a niche, mine is in the margins. It’s the same trades and info over and over, which I enjoy, just voicing some outside the box conversation.

      4. By the way, I love the idea of Reynolds and Semien as our big off-season moves. Add in a few bill pen pieces and that would be a great off-season. Simien has the benefit of being flexible to play either 3rd (if Bohm fails) or 2nd (when Segura’s contract ends) if Stott is seen as a better SS. But the contract may be a monster.

        But yes, that’s what going all in looks like imo. Trading the farm for Reynolds and signing Semien and a few bill pen arms. Assuming health and no major regression, that’s a club that can compete.

        1. v1 … the deal I proposed last week was

          Pirates get: Bryson Stott, Johan Rojas, Mick Abel, and Jean Cabrera
          Phillies get: (4 yrs of) Bryan Reynolds and (5 yrs of) David Bednar

          Would you do that? The Phillies get their CFer and closer for a combined cost of ~5M in 2022. That would leave DD with plenty of payroll room to add a SS (Trevor Story) and maybe even pitching depth (Yusei Kikuchi).

          Also … the deal I’ve previously posted to include Ranger was this.

          A’s get: (4 yrs of) Saurez, (6 years of) Nick Maton, and Johan Rojas
          Phillies get: (3 yrs of) Ramon Laureano and (1 yr of) Sean Manaea

          Any interest in that swap?

          1. Hinkie, for that Is tempting. Very tempting. Bednar is a little wild from reports but a good gamble. I hate giving up stott. I’d rather add 2 (Bohm & Marchan). For the record I hate giving up Bohm too. Getting Reynolds & semien is ideal to me but I’d also be okay with keeping those young players and trading segura to create room for signing 2 massive OF contracts and trade less prospects for 2B or 3B. Keep Bohm/Stott. They have room to add pieces if they can trade both Didi & segura and after 22 million off rhe books. This accounts for money needed to eat didi’s contract. Will see what DD does but … Reynolds Semien Harper Realmuto Hoskins Schwarber …. I’m feeling that lineup with young players filling out the lineup.

  17. Spitballing because … it’s the off-season

    Think about this OF:
    LF: Harper
    CF: Marte
    RF: Reynolds

    Obviously is Harper approves 🙂

    Who cares we got Reynolds!

    Last thing ill say, our scouting department needs a great draft this year. If DD needs to trade away top talent , the scouting department needs to be able to replace them, or it shortens the winning window

    Lets GO DD – make us do the off-season wave! The anticipation is starting to get to me… not quite Harper/Machado pursuit .. but it’s up there.

  18. Mychal Givens a couple years ago, maybe…but he’s now on the wrong side of 30, still throws hard but the BB and K rates are both heading in the wrong direction. Pass.

    Laureano is an exciting player with too many shadows for my comfort as well as the price to get him. Besides, his PED suspension doesn’t end until May, if I’m not mistaken. Pass.

    If and only if we offer no more than Abel, Rojas, Bohm, Ortiz and Miller, then I have to pass on Reynolds. O’Hoppe would sweeten the deal for Pittsburgh but their #1 prospect is C Henry Davis. I don’t budge on Stott’s IT factor or Suarez’s TOR upside.

      1. And, by the way, why would I want to trade for Reynolds at the top of his market value? I want us to find the NEXT Reynolds.

          1. That’s not the only reason he’s here – he’s here to fix the organization – top to bottom – for now and into the future.

            1. Agree with Catch we are not getting Reynolds. In fact I will say no one is getting Reynolds. Cherington is going to want to decimate someone else’s farm system to give up a player of his ilk.

              Let it not be us please

              Cherington is pretty smart and maybe he clutched his pearls a little too tight in Boston but he didn’t get back into this role to become a perpetual rebuilder of the farm system only so another GM can come in and win on his back again.

              That and the central might be as weak as its been in quite some time. Reynolds is the guy you add to not subtract if you’re ready to turn the corner.

            2. DMAR, until the Pirates owner loosens their purse strings, they will continue heading to Nowheresville at the speed of light, regardless of how smart their GM is.

      2. I agree! I understand to get value you have to trade value but would we trade our top prospects in a thin minor league system when quality FA’s are out there that can had for $$$$, a draft pick or in some cases no draft pick just cash?

  19. PhuPhil posters – Who of you, if you sat in DD’s chair, would’ve given Kendall Graveman 3 years at $8M per? Remember when the team gave Papelbon 5 years and a kajillion dollars?

    1. Graveman has only been a full time reliever since 2020 so SSS for his track record. He had a real good season with 2.2 WAR for 2021. Getting 3 years is good for him considering how volatile relievers are. 2 years max for me.

      Papelpon already had 4 AS appearances and 16.2 WAR before he joined the Phillies. You can’t compare Graveman and Papelbon. Papelbon averaged almost 2 WAR during his 12 year career. He had a spectacular career as a reliever.

    2. Which means Kimbrel is outta Chicago! Not a fan at this stage of his career…pass…although trading Segura’s salary for his makes some sense.

      1. I agree with mark29 – Kimbrel has been relieved and now Sox will trade him. My bet DD was waiting for this shoe to drop. Note Kimbrel has 16 million contact but I believe it’s only 1 year. He will come cheaper than usual because of high salary and dismal 2nd half with Sox.

  20. Yankees released Clint Frazier as expected. He’s now a free agent, and I can see the Pirates taking a 1 year flyer on him since he’s got 3 arb eligible years to go.

    1. Well they will need to DFA someone if they pick up Frazier….they have the full complement on their 40 now.
      BTW……they may be the only MLB team to have one catcher listed on their 40.
      That means…Cheingon may be looking around for a back-up, for te 2022 season.

    2. Once upon a time I was very intrigued by Frazier but now I believe the vertigo is a real issue for him and he may never materialize as a MLBer

      1. I think something similar happened to Reds’ Senzel.
        A few years ago Frazier was the man IMO…great bat speed…power, and not great but serviceable in the OF…Cashman trading for Stanton made Frazier a yo-yo player between New York and Scranton a few year ago, then the concussions/head issues and now this..

  21. How about this proposal….

    PHILLIES get:
    Jake Cronenworth SS/2B
    Blake Snell RHP
    Will Myers OF/1B
    Mackenzie Gore LHP

    PADRES get:
    Aaron Nola RHP
    Roman Quinn OF

    1. Now this is interesting – it wouldn’t be enough to get those players, but add Crouse and Marchan and maybe it happens. Really interesting.

    2. The Padres have made a half dozen trades with teams in the last two years and it’s very, very likely all asked for Gore and the Padres said no. So I wouldn’t add him into any trade with the Padres..

    3. I don’t think Cronenworth is a SS. 2B only. Imo don’t need to cash in a chip like Nola for 2b. Segura is very good. Myers is all hype. Pass on this deal for me.

      1. Cronenworth would be my 2b after trading Segura. He’s under control thru 2025 (pretty sure) when he turns 33.

  22. In their mock off season moves posted on Monday, Phillies Nation proposed trading Painter, Crouse and Moniak to the Twins for Buxton.

    They also proposed Marchan, Ottenbreit and Yhoswar Garcia to Baltimore for OF Austin Hays (platoon vs lhp) and RHP Cole Solser (pen).

    They also have FAs: Schwarber 4/$63M, lefties Rich Hill @1/$5M (#4)and Brooks Raley 2/$8M (reliever), and Mark Melancon (closer) 1/$8.


    1. It’s a reasonable prediction. They have them signing Buxton to a 7 year extension for $100M which you’d have to do. Major injury risk with hi obviously but the upside is huge. They also assumed Stott wins the SS job with Maton and Didi on the bench which I’m not sure of, I think they’ll bring Galvis back and maybe Torreyes too.

    2. 1. I would rather keep Painter and sign Marte to the Cutch contract ($50m/3 yrs).
      2. We don’t need a platoon OF. We got those.
      3. Love Schwarber if NL has DH
      4. Love Melancon on a 1/$8m if we can get it done. Seems low to me but we will see

      1. I would be good with all of those moves. Marte is apparently getting a lot of interest in free agency, so it’s hard to know what type of contract you would need to secure his rights, but the Cutch contract isn’t unreasonable knowing that you may not get decent production in year 3 – it happens. But man, those fielding, hitting and baserunning skills in a centerfielder would be so helpful to this team. He solves a LOT of the Phillies’ problems at the same time.

  23. Matz to the Cardinals 4year-$48 million deal…Teams aren’t messing around waiting on pitching this year…

    1. Not bad for potential. He is hittable and has a career 1.34 WHIP. Good strikeout pitcher but gives up the long ball. Pitching in Central might be a plus for him.
      Personally, I wouldn’t have done it.

      1. Denny…for $11M AAV that could be a bonanza for the Redbirds.
        Sometimes pitchers and especially lefties come around late…Robbie Ray is another.

        1. It is so funny you said that. I’ve been thinking recently that Cohen could become the next Daniel Snyder. Rude, impatient, impulsive, demanding, believing the traditional rules of developing a contending team somehow don’t apply to him, and hiring sycophants who simply tell him what he wants to hear. On the last point, I would bet money that’s why Eppler was hired. He told Cohen the crap he wanted to hear about paying a lot of money to acquire players and how close his team was to winning a championship and, as a result, Cohen hired him rather than a better candidate.

          Be careful what you wish for Mets fans. Cohen is probably not the owner/messiah you’ve always hoped for. Good luck with that!

        2. I read PP every day but haven’t posted in a long time. Thoroughly enjoyed that story and that’s a perfect comp, in my opinion.

          Back in my working days, my colleagues and I were on the receiving end of a pitch from Snyder when he still had the marketing company he later sold, raising the money to buy the ‘Skins. After he left our conference room one of the guys asked, “Was that **** even legal?”

          Years later I had plenty of encounters with SAC, Cohen’s hedge fund….the inspiration for Axe Capital in “Billions:” institutionalized insider trading.

          He thinks agents are slippery? Wow. These guys are who you think they are.


          I live in the West so really can’t judge these kids and depend upon you fellow readers. Thanks for all the great info, perspective and….hope!

          Special thanks to Jim for all the effort. Phuture Phillies is such a great forum.

      2. The Cardinals were arguably the best defensive team in the MLB in 2021 and will likely be again for 2022. Pitchers love that. Strong fan base. I think the $44 million was a good $7 to $8 million more than Matz was projected to sign for by MLB Trade Rumors.

  24. The Athletic has a new piece on the 10 prospects who impressed scouts most in the AFL. O’Hoppe #4, Stott #6.

    1. I love JT but I hate that we reupped with him. I wouldn’t have put that much money in the position because Marchan + a cheap veteran could have handled the defensive and game calling side for pennies on the dollar.

      Interesting I remember when this kid Howard came on the scene and we traded a HOF to make room for him.

      Not that I wouldn’t trade O’Hoppe for the right player but as scrooge feared the ghost of Christmas future the most I fear that at this point.

      1. I wouldn’t worry about Realmuto too much. He’s likely to be worth or nearly worth his contract the entire remaining 4 years. Unless he drops off a cliff, the Phillies should be able to move that contract either in full or by assuming a small portion of the liabilities. But remember, O’Hoppe is a full year plus away from the majors and it might be best for him to be a back-up (and part time DH and pinch hitter) for at least part of a year. The Phillies have time to let this play out.

    2. Wow …O’Hoppe at 4…..and one of the youngest in that league.
      I will be wating to see where he is ranked, come Jan/Feb for BA/Fangraphs/ 2022 Top 100s.

      1. Stott reached base in all 26 AFL games in which he played. SSS? Sure. But that’s one statistic that screams out to me the word CONSISTENCY. I think this kid could be that proverbial thorn in the opponent’s side, even as a non-superstar. A .275/.350/.475 slash line with 25 HR power and 80-90 rbi would make him an exceptional value to this team as it transitions into the mid to late 20s. Keep it going, Bryson!

      2. There’s pretty much no way I would include Stott or O’Hoppe in virtually any trade. These guys are the future.

        Stott is probably going to be a big league starter by this May. If he’s even close to average (which he’s likely to be given his extreme on base skills), he’s an enormous bargain and the type of low cost player that allows you to add cost to your roster in other ways. I think Stott can stay in the big leagues at short, but perhaps he plays second and Segura plays short – it could shake out in the field several different ways.

        As for O’Hoppe, he is probably going to need at least one more full year in the minors. If he projects as a plus hitter and defensive catcher – which is his current trajectory – he represents one of the most valuable commodities a baseball team can possess. And, no Realmuto doesn’t create a conflict. By the time O’Hoppe is a relevant consideration at the big league level, Realmuto will be through 2 plus years of his contract. My sense is that the Phillies would probably promote O’Hoppe mid-year next year and make him the #2 and give him DH at bats as well, to allow him slowly to break into the big leagues. If he looks like he’s going to be a big league stud, you trade Realmuto, just as the team traded Jim Thome when it was clear Howard would be a star and as the Eagles traded Zach Ertz to allow Goedert to play. Why? Because Realmuto’s best value is as a catcher not a first baseman or DH – those are hitter-only positions where you can get a bat as good as Realmuto’s for much less money and Realmuto should have some trade value.

        1. While the Phillies do not have any Wander Franco level untouchable prospects (and a few young players on the big league roster), here’s my list of the nearly untouchables.

          Mick Abel
          Bryson Stott
          Logan O’Hoppe

          Andrew Painter
          Johan Rojas
          Luis Garcia (he’s nearly in the above category because I think he’s far better than his market value)

          Ethan Wilson
          Jordan Viars
          Bailey Falter
          Erik Miller
          Jamari Baylor

          Rafael Marchan
          Alec Bohm (they are saying he can play third to increase his trade value – he really can’t long term)
          Roman Quinn (close to getting released in my opinion)
          James McArthur
          Yhoshwar Garcia

            1. Thanks, my man – as always, posting on this site is a labor of love. I enjoy the back and forth so much.

          1. The most untouchable young player isn’t even on this list. They are NOT trading Ranger Suarez without getting a haul in return and I don’t mean Byron Buxton. I mean top prospects and a few young, promising major leaguers.

          2. Yesterday yuo mentioned that the Phillies should try and develop their own Bryan Reynolds ilo of going after him in a trade with the Pirtaes and depleting an already thin farm system.
            I do think the Phillies may think their guy to do just that is Ethan Wilson…….that is, offensively, not so much defensively.
            Not sure if he will be that guy…but, he had good college metrics….just not in an elite conference like Reynolds had in the SEC.
            And his early pro metrics still have room for improvement….but there is promise in his bat.

            1. Actually, when I said that yesterday, I meant the Phillies should be looking to trade for the next Bryan Reynolds, but if they have him in their system already, so much the better!

          3. Love the breakdown, Catch. Thought provoking, and I love and agree with the sidebar comments. Nice job and have a nice holiday tomorrow.

  25. Catch – I think Segura proved a few seasons back, when he first came to Philly, that he was a liability at SS. However, he is an above average 2Bman.

    1. Understood – he is better at second. I guess the question is whether Stott projects to be better than Segura at short in the medium term.

    2. Jim mentioned in the intro that a SS with flexibility is a likely trade target, kinda like Galvis but better. Semien presents that profile in spades, despite the QO. If Schwarber is signed, then defense becomes a greater commodity. So an Andrus or a Ahmed become plausible targets.

  26. I may have mentioned this before but I was in the Williamsport area in 2019 and I took in a Cutters game. I had a chance to see Stott play and my impression after the game was oh-oh.’ Low A pitchers for the most part are either so-so, very young or their around for a cup of coffee and moving up.. That night Stott looked lost, His average was down in the .240’s. I don’t know if it was from working with Harper in the off season in 2020, the off-site 2020 COVID camp or what but his swing and pitch recognition is now dramatically better… He’s dropped his hands a little. His hands are stiller and it’s produced a better swing path to the baseball and it’s timed up better… All I can say is great job young man.. You did the work to make adjustments and get better and the reward is a likely promotion to the MLB in 2022..

  27. Great post catch! I agree and add Miller up to the 2d level and Painter to the first. I don’t like to repeat myself every time someone makes a trade proposal, and I respect everyone’s opinion. I don’t trade any of Painter, Stott or Abel. Not for Reynolds, not for Buxton. O’Hoppe only for a deal that’s impossible to turn down. Mark made a very interesting proposal yesterday, and although I haven’t thought they would trade Nola, that really requires some thought!

    1. Matt, trading Nola would be antithetical to probably most on this board, and understandably so, but after years of a vanilla front office, it’s time to consider Nola’s value as it stands. Is he at his highest currently? Probably not. BUT (1) he’s not that far from reaching free agency; and (2) in my humble opinion, he’s not terribly thrilled with being here. Not that he’s a bad teammate, but the sh!t eating expression he often displays at inopportune times gives me that impression. Pedigree of a TOR? Yes. Bounce back candidate after being a Cy Young contender not long ago? Certainly. I would use those selling points in trade talks with the Padres, first, since his battery mate brother Austin might make things a bit more homey. I may be oversimplifying the scenario, but I think there’s much to accomplish in trading him now versus later. Acquiring a fairly young and cheap Jake Cronenworth at age 27, along with other pieces, would position the Phillies well into the middle of the decade with him and Stott as the keystone combo.

  28. My concern would be based on previous, and admittedly irrelevant trades, the Phillies seldom seem to “win” trading a star for numerous “pieces”….(Schilling, Rolen,Hamels). Since I mainly follow the Phillies and not baseball in general I’m not sure if this holds true everywhere. Trading Nola opens up a hole in the rotation that would be hard to fill

    1. Perhaps, but Abel should arrive come 2024, Painter shortly thereafter. And besides, trading Nola is a viable alternative to trading top prospects. If we’re in win now mode, we can’t have it both ways.

    2. Dave47…for the most part you are correct.
      Just seems many of those one star for multiple prospects rarely work as intended .
      There have been those star for 3/4 prospects that have worked… 20 years ago, Bartolo from the Cleveland team to the Expos for Lee Stevens, Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore….but many of those prospects made their name later on differnt teams.

    1. I think that is the way the Phillies see it…Garcia hands down is the best fielding middle infielder since Freddy came up. He probably, if he isn’t traded, will push Stott over to 2B in a couple of years.

  29. La Tortuga has been let go by the Twins. Willians Astudillo played every position except SS last year for Minnesota. He’s now 30 years old, and still looks like he hasn’t missed a meal since being in the Phillies organization. Any takers?

  30. BB Mark – Can’t say I’d like to have him back. He can play all of those positions but none of them all that well. That’s why the Twins parted with him and why the Phillies gave up on him. However, he is/was a major league player and I’m not so good for him no matter where he ends up.

    1. Astudillo was a -.8 WAR player last year. That said, he is one of the more unique players in MLB history. A human fireplug with ridiculous bat-to-ball skills (6 strikeouts per 100 ABs) and no plate discipline (1.5 walks per 100 ABs!) and a better fielder than anyone could imagine but with obviously more limited range. He is listed at 5’9″, 225 – yeah, right! He has to be at least 260 or 270. If he lost 40 pounds, he’d still be intriguing, but on a minor league deal.

  31. LHP Scott Moss picked up off waivers from Cleveland. One comment on MLBTR says he has plenty of upside. Anyone have a report on him?

    1. Same pitching staff with AJ Puk at Florida…and believ it or not…had a better record than Puk in their last year there in Gainesville…

    2. Fangraphs had him at 45 in their rankings for Cleveland prior to this pastr season.

      .Tool Grades (Present/Future)

      Sourcing Moss’ pitch data from the alternate site indicated he may have been going through a change to the way he throws his fastball (maybe a new grip or seam orientation), as his velocity band for that pitch is larger than usual. He may end up looking at little different next year, but he had been a low leverage long relief prospect because of his repertoire depth, unable to start due to a lack of athleticism and command. (Alternate site)

  32. He is 27 and was drafted by the Reds and traded to the Guardians in 2019. He is 6 foot 6 and has started 94 of 96 games. He had a good 2019 and then only pitched 20 innings at AAA in 2021 in 7 starts and 2 bp.

  33. Moss’s record before 2021 was W 41 L 17 3.28 ERA 87 games, all starts, IP 437 H 383 BB 173 SO 456.

  34. Happy Thanks to all of you. Thanks so much, jim, for all the work you do providing us with the best Phillies site that there is!

  35. The answer to what Phanatic (new or old) will be used going forward was answered this morning. The old/original Phanatic is in the Thanksgiving Day Parade in Philly!
    And happy turkey day to Jim and all my PP friends!

    1. Thanks to Roku I saw the new-old Phanatic at the Parade. May be a sign of a return to good times.
      Happy Thanksgiving to all, and big thanks especially to Jim.

  36. May all enjoy a Happy Thanksgiving today with family and/or friends….and a little factoid to mention around the dinner table later today….a remebrance and an appreciation to Sarah Josepha Hale.

  37. I too want to wish all a Happy Thanksgiving.
    A very special thanks to Jim for operating this site.
    I look forward seeing all the comments and interesting info that you all share.
    Especially Romus. I think you are Mr. Stat Man. Thanks.

  38. Seeing that the newly acquired Moss had a bum shoulder most of last season, can the Phillies put him on the 60 day IL as soon as possible or must they wait until the season begins?

    1. ciada…… Old rules,,,not sure if they have changed them due to COVID restrictions:
      But a player cannot be placed on the MLB 60-day IL after the conclusion of the MLB regular season, and during the post-season and off-season,…..UP UNTIL THE START OF SPRING TRAINING (beginning on the date that pitchers & catchers are scheduled to report). A minor league player can be placed on a minor league club’s 60-day Injured List only during his minor league club’s regular season. So assume Moss is a minor league player………….then again a player who is placed on the MLB 60-day IL during ST must spend at least the first 60 days of the MLB regular season on the IL (the player cannot be reinstated any earlier than the 61st day of the MLB regular season).

    2. ciada….another note…unless the Philies DFA someone or trade soemone in the next two weeks…off their 40…they will not participate in the Rule 5 draft on Dec 9th.
      Right now they are at the 40 limit with Moss’ addition the other day..

  39. And not just any Thanksgiving. It is the 400th anniversary of the Pilgrims very first thanksgiving the the New World. Their story is an amazing one and should be learned and celebrated everywhere. Stories of William Bradford, John Howland and Squanto are awe inspiring and worth knowing and repeating. As someone who cherishes our nation’s history, it is important that we study it, learn it and share it…or it will soon disappear.

    William Bradford’s first hand account Of Plymouth Plantation is amazing history lesson of courage, faith in God, and the belief that with hard work and fortitude, anything is possible.

    Happy Thanksgiving, fellow Phillie phans.

  40. A Happy Thanksgiving to all who visit this site. A special thank you and hearty wishes to Jim and his wife for a healthy and special time. Thanks again to all who provide great commennts.

  41. It was said above that Stott was not top 100 mlb so wouldn’t be enough as a centerpiece in a trade. We all have to realize the last rankings are old. Stott is absolutely for sure in the top 100 now, and may be pretty darned high! And O’Hoppe might even flirt with some top 100 lists. We will have several players ranked when they next come out.

    That said, I wouldn’t trade them.

    1. IMO, Stott, O’Hoppe, and Yohan Rojas along with likely Abel are legit top 100 MLB prospects going into next year. All 3 hitters can walk make contact and keep strike outs low. Painter has not shown enough yet to really be considered, whereas Abel had some serious strike out numbers. Luis Garcia is a borderline candidate but can easily springboard into the top 100 with a solid year.

      1. I don’t think Rojas has done enough yet to score in the top 100 but the other 3 might be and Stott already is.

    1. v1, absolutely agree with yo9ur Happy Thanksgiving message.

      a happy holiday season and good fortune to all PhuturePhillies readers and contributors.

  42. Southside Showdown (a White Sox blog) posted 3 proposals for the Phillies to acquire Craig Kimbrel…

    1) Erik Miller and Casey Martin
    2) Jean Segura
    3) Ethan Wilson and Kyle Dohy

    Trading Segura would have to be based on acquiring a middle infielder, and the probability that Stott will be on the opening day roster. Options 1 and 3 don’t appeal to me since I’m not trading Miller or Wilson unless it’s in a package for an impact player under control for several years. Segura for Kimbrel swaps salaries for positions of need, so there is some sense to that trade.

    1. It sure seems possible that the Phils trade for Kimbrel. Segura would probably be a fair deal and be realistic because they need a 2b and the money is close. We’d have to find another middle IF, even if they think Stott is close. Cesar is available…. Haha we could bring Galvis and Cesar back together again.

      1. They opined that Kimbrel was ill-used by the Chisox as a set up man in deference to Liam Hendriks…I’m not a huge Kimbrel guy but he would be an upgrade over the mish mosh we’ve suffered through the past few seasons, plus the trade is logical if Segura is agreeable.

      2. No, not a fair deal. Kimbrel is barely worth his salary. Lower level prospects only. Segura would, in my view, be an overpay. If you move Segura you need salary relief and a decent prospect or two.

        1. It’s basically trading comparable salaries and filling needs. Chisox need a 2b, we need a closer. Both players are on the last year of their respective contracts. Your proposal also makes sense. But Dombrowski’s plans on Stott/acquiring a middle infielder would be the determining factor.

          1. Mark, yes, the salaries are comparable (with Kimbrel getting $1.75M more than Segura). However, Segura is not technically in the last year of his contract. He has a $17M option for 2023 which will probably have to be guaranteed to get Segura to agree to the trade. There is also a $1M assignment fee in the event of a trade written into his existing contract.

            This would likely flip salary relief from the Phillies to the Sox and alter the parameters of any trade regarding a decent prospect or two.

            1. Good point. This might be where the Phillies can unload someone like Medina and another 40man player whose run his course here. Yeah, that guarantee really puts a crimp in Segura trade talks.

  43. .

    Would anyone do this?

    The trade that would break the internet
    Phillies get: 3B Matt Chapman, LHP Josh Hader
    Brewers get: 1B Matt Olson, LHP A.J. Puk
    A’s get: 1B Keston Hiura, RHP Mick Abel (Phillies’ No. 1 prospect), SS Bryson Stott (Phillies’ No. 2 prospect), OF Ethan Wilson (Phillies’ No. 7 prospect), C Logan O’Hoppe (Phillies’ No. 11 prospect), OF Garrett Mitchell (Brewers’ No. 1 prospect)

    1. ….that’s a long way to deplete the farm. No Stott, no O’Hoppe in that trade. I would demand much more from someone…

    2. Yeah….that trade? I don’t know what they call it out there in the Bay area, but around here we would call that highway robbery.

    3. I would do that deal. Without hesitation. I would tell the A’s and Brewers to not hang up the phone and let’s finish the paperwork while we all stay on the phone together.

      I would also see if they would take Bohm instead of Stott (or Abel), but I doubt that they would.

    4. If you say no to this deal, then imo you are vastly under estimating how far the Phillies team is from contending and how short of a window we have to close that gap.

      Our window is the next 4 years. After that, we are in a really bad spot. That’s how this team is set up.

      Our lineup had 18.6 WAR. 13.5 (or 73%) of that came from 3 players (Harper, JTR and Segura).

      Our pitching staff had 17.9 WAR. 11.8 (or 66%) of that came from 2 players (Wheeler and Nola).

      All 5 of those players (69% of our WAR) are in their prime right now. 4 years from now, all of those players will be off our roster besides Harper, who will likely be a 2-3 WAR player then.

      The time to go all-in is right now!

      1. Upon further examination, this trade is fair “on paper” but as you said, offering Bohm instead of Stott would make it more so. Ran it through “the Hinkie scanner” and the 3 teams would receive fair value…the sticker is how attached a Phillies fan is to Stott and/or O’Hoppe. The other pieces seem reasonable. However at the end of the day, I would try to acquire Chapman and Hader in separate deals.

        1. mark…that would make more sense to me also,
          …..acquire each in separate dealings.
          You may not have to give up so much of the prospect talent.

  44. Saw this trade on the site and thought it was trading an awful lot of future for 2 years of controlled players – albeit, the best closer in the game / and maybe the best fielding 3B. No way I do this trade.

  45. I like Kimbrel. He may not be what he was but he can still be dominant. He had his 4th best K/BB in 2021. Over the years his FB has only dropped 1 – 1.5 mph. Also, while he has slightly decreased his FB usage, he still throws it 60% and the increase in CB usage has paralleled its improved results.

    He knows what means to be elite. He’s had playoff success. He’s a fierce competitor.

    I would love to have him. And I’d definitely choose swap of Segura as my route.

    Lastly, Hinkie suggested Cleveland may have MI surplus. I would love to trade for Gimenez! And I’d also be pretty happy to get Rosario, who would come much cheaper.

    1. Gimenez and Rosario were nothing for the Mets so why would we sign them. We have better alternatives already in MLB and MiLB.

      1. Do you realize Gimenez will play 2022 mostly as a 23 year old.

        He was the Mets #1 prospect in 2018 and 2019, then debuted in mlb in the 2020 covid season at age 21 (partly due expanded roster).

        In 2021, he improved in both his AAA and mlb numbers as the season progressed.

        Personally, I’m not sure Cleveland is looking to trade him but if they are I’d be very interested. I believe he’s the kind of player a smart team steals from another.

  46. I would much rather see the Phillies give Cory Knebel two years at #16-18M than take on Kimbrel’s one year $16M contract. Then if they want to try and trade Segura for a couple of needed pieces, that would be fine. I just think Segura has more value than Kimbrel and a straight up trade would not be that beneficial for the Phils.

    1. I like Knebel myself, but I get the idea that DD wants a bonafide experienced closer with a track record. I would lay money he lands either Hader or Kimbrel….if I was a betting man, which I’m not.

    1. Apparently Marte as well. He’s off the table:

      Mullins & Reynolds & Buxton are the trade possibilities now

  47. Cedric Mullins wouldn’t take quite the haul that Reynolds would…but it would still be a haul. 27 in 2022. Switch hitting, under control through 2025. However, ’21 was his only full productive season. Start with Abel, Rojas, Marchan and Bohm…and?

  48. Okay, so with S.Marte off the board, my realistic expectations now are that Dombrowski trades for a non-Reynolds/non-Mullins/non-KMart CF…a Kiermaier type. Beware of dealing with Tampa, however….no top prospects.

    RAYS get:
    Rafael Marchan c
    Christian McGowan rhp
    Adonis Medina rhp
    Simon Muziotti cf

    PHILLIES get:
    Kevin Kiermaier cf
    Mike Zunino c
    JJ Goss rhp

    Then DD signs Kyle Schwarber and a few supplemental additions, bench players and pen pieces.

    1. Mets need pitching more than bats. Marte is by no means a bargain at age 33. That’s a McCutchen deal. Canha is a nice supplemental player but not at the price they paid, and Escobar would be a good acquisition….2 or 3 years ago. This is still a .500 team at best without a healthy, sound starting rotation.

      1. Trollu … in the words of the great Men Without Hats:
        “The night is young and so am I
        And we can dress real neat from our hats to our feet
        And surprise ’em with the victory cry.”

        In other words … give DD some time. It doesn’t matter if it happens in November or February. But a big deal (or two) is coming.

  49. Seeing a couple tweets this morning regarding Trevor Story….either heading here or NYY. Nothing to substantiate other than unrelated. I guess the attention naturally shifts to SS. I would offer Story 5/$110, no more. That takes him to age 34 season.

    1. Saw one of those where Phillies are supposedly working on a big fish.

      Not putting too much stock in to that either as Story has a QO and a big ticket FA would probably hit Middleton’s budget. Too many holes to fill.

    2. I always thoght he get JTR years and money, maybe a 5 to 10% bump up on the $$$.
      Good thing….at some point in two years more than likely, he can slide over to third, Stott to 2B and Garcia to shortstop…if Garcia or Styott are not traded by then..

  50. Mets spending LOTS of money, as we all feared they might do. Phils will need to spend to keep up since we know the system won’t help much. Will be interesting to see if this changes their plans at all. Mullins now in play too but I’d still rather chase K Marte

    1. But are they spending it wisely. $42million + a year for these 3. Marte is 33, will he another Cutch, the other 2 are marginal stars but getting paid above their worth. Thoughts?

      1. No, not necessarily. What they spent on Marte, and more importantly, the years, are way farther than I would have gone.

        The Mets are now going to become like the Angels or Washington Football Team – lurching from idea to idea and big contract to big contract, forgetting the assets they already have in house.

        So, the Phillies should be smart shoppers and, again, look for the next Marte or the next Bryan Reynolds.

        There are at least two Mets who could be low-hanging fruit. Nimmo and McNeil. McNeil had one bad/mediocre season – aside from that, he’s been a super hitter – borderline elite at times. If the Phillies can get him on the cheap, they should pounce. McNeil could be this year’s DJ LeMahieu – a good player who bounces back and then some to become an elite hitter. Nimmo is interesting if he is in play too. Brandon Nimmo is hurt a lot, but he’s a really, really good player – a winning player.

        1. Highly, highly doubt that the Mets will deal with the Phillies under almost any circumstance, unless it’s some low level minor league transaction.

          1. Maybe you’re right, but we really don’t know with Cohen at the helm. But if they non-tender either of those guys or Dom Smith, it won’t matter. Smith and McNeil are two of the biggest bounce-back candidates in baseball, but McNeil is actually an above-average fielder too, so that makes him even more appealing. And you know what, McNeil can play the infield. If the Phillies can’t get him you can bet he’d be a big under-the-radar target of a team like the Dodgers (literally the next Justin Turner) or As – he could become a very important player on a championship team. He has that much ability.

        2. Tough to trade with the Mets……not many times it has happened in the past.
          Nevertheless, McNeil would be a good pick up with three more years of control…a gutsy player, like Nimmo also.
          I do think they rather shop Dom Smith since 1B will be tied up for awhile in NY.

  51. Looks like the Mets overspent a bit on Escobar, Canha, and Marte. But, they got some players. They probably lose Conforto and Baez. Syndergaard gone. Are they better?

  52. v1’s Cousin Steve was mad about Matz singing elsewhere, so spent some money that was burning a hole in his pocket. I would like something, anything, to get this off season started for us. I don’t pretend to have patience. Marte is the only one of the Mets’ signings I wanted, but I thought we would be out after a 3 year deal for him. My SMarte, Knebel, and Schwarber prediction is already 0-1.

    1. Trying to be patient as well but I fear this will end up being bargain hunting season. Hopefully Phillies aren’t waiting for prices to come down so they’ll end up signing lower quality FAs.

      1. Every single free agency you come on here and whine about the Phillies taking too long to make the the moves you want them to make.

  53. It appears that the Mets are moving Nimmo to LF, not to the trade market. They are definitely better defensively, and Marte sure would have helped us in CF and batting leadoff. Canha and Escobar seem to be overpays, but it’s not my money. TrollU, we absolutely cannot shop at the dented can aisle again. We need major upgrades.

    1. Matt – I 100% agree

      Most of the top tier FA have a QO attached so that would disqualify us if DDs comments hold true.

      Matre would’ve been one that didn’t have the QO. Maybe Bryant or Schwarber? But haven’t heard much on them.

      Heck I guess rumors are better than silence lol

      1. Gents on the patience part – Jim did a say that the FO has offers out there on players already. Now, he didn’t say exactly who, but im confident DD is WORKING. We are going to have to wait longer than we’d like for sure. This team has many holes, but many was to fill them . Im just hoping they sign the FA’s, hold onto as many prospects to hedge their big FA spending …. Or once the FA are signed, they make the big trades for a Reynolds, Mullins, etc.

        Moves are coming just hold on .. but yes, every time I refresh My baseball sites .. I’m hoping. It’s nowhere near as bad as the Harper/machado sweepstakes. Thome was a fun chase as well. Let’s have some faith and see what DD does. He’s known for going all in, so we should have a lot to talk about

        1. Something will go down today or tomorrow…just feeling it. DD has a big fish on his line…with Marte’s deal, the latch to the flood gates is unlocked.

  54. Pick two … who are you taking

    Schwarber, Conforto
    Baez, Story, Semien
    Bryant, Castellanos

    Keep Age & salary requirements in mind

    Swarber & Semien are my picks
    Swarber & Story
    Castellanos & Stott/Bohm inf

    I Thibk Schwarber matches up so well. I can see him still having a better season, same as conforto. I’d worry Bryant may have peaked, some concerns with Semien as well. Schwarber is ridiculous clutch, I want him for the playoffs on that note alone.
    I’d happy with those moves coupled with a heavily fortified bullpen

    1. The metric may tell you one thing, but it’s more than a metrics decision. I’m all with Schwarber – I think you get the most bang for your buck (and limited contract term with him) and agree on the clutch comment. I want that guy hitting for me when the season is on the line.

  55. A trade with the Twins for Buxton and Donaldson looks like the major move for the Phillies if the Twins and Phillies can agree on prospects. I understand Buxton’s past health concerns and the risk involved but really all trades have risks. I agree we should be all in during the Harper prime years and this move plus a better bullpen with a proven closer brings us into contention. Would also like to add a real good defensive shortstop to this mix. Maybe Ahmad from the D-Backs.

    1. Buxton is intriguing but … this trade has such the potential to backfire. If Buxton’s injury history continues, and Donaldson has a “I’m done at age 36” season … you basically waste the year and prospects. That said it could also go very well with Buxton too. IMO it’s more likely To backfire. Id roll the dice if the prospect package was reasonable, like Marchan, Bohm, Adonis, and a lower rated pitcher. I’m sure the twins hang up on that offer but …. That’s what I’d be willing to do for the injury risk, the contract needed to resign Buxton. Buxton and Quinn have too much in common …

      1. Tac3….agree.
        They are both high risk…injury and aging.
        Those offered players/prospects Bohm, Marchan , Medina and pitcher….IMO, is what would be a fair offer…..however other teams could top that.
        GMs are not stupid….they know the risks for Buxton and Donaldson.

        1. Oh my gosh, Romus – you and I agree!!! I’d do that deal, but Minnesota has to pay more than a small chunk of Donaldson’s contract. That contract cannot be the reason you are unable to get a closer. I think he gets paid like $23m a year. You’re going to need the Twins (who have plenty of cap/dollar flexibility) to swallow around $7-8 m a year for the next two years.

          Add Schwarber and the right closer arm and, man, this team is stacked!!!

          1. But while that’s going on, I also try to trade for McNeil. In fact, I think McNeil could be the hidden gem of the trade market this year. The question is – what do you need to give up to get him? If the Mets wanted Bohm for McNeil, straight up, and I had 3 minutes to decide, I would probably say yes. I don’t think people have any idea how good McNeil could be in a park like CBP where he could routinely hit 25 homers a year.

            So, if you had a line-up like this – wow!

            Schwarber – DH most days
            Realmuto – C and occasional DH
            Donaldson – third and DH
            McNeil – left and third

            Yeah, that line-up and a new closer – damn, that’s a freaking good team.

          2. Yes…….Twins will need to chip in $$$$.
            The trouble is….. not sure what the new CBA will set the luxury tax at this time.
            if it goes higher…….then maybe the Twins can get away with only forking over a little.
            But if it gets lowered……then not sure how they will work out for them.

      1. They don’t move the needle by themselves, but if they also signed Semien/story & Schwarber. I like it a lot more. Still … Buxton has his injury history. The money likely is maxed unless you trade segura for prospects and have stott to second

  56. If it took the same package for Mullins or Reynolds, who would you rather have?

    1. Reynolds…his bat has played at every stop…sans 2020 and that odd season last year..
      Defensively it is a push IMO.

    2. Reynolds is clearly a better glove, slightly hit tool, while Mullins might have an edge in power. I take Reynolds.

  57. I’m relieved it was the Mets, and not the Phillies to invest four years in Starling Marte. He’s already 33 YO. History shows guys that age tend to regress precipitously.
    I posted some comments from Kevin Frandsen (last week?). Frandsen is close with Harper. The Phillies radio broadcaster mentioned Bryce spread his money out to allow the team to bring in other difference making dudes. He specifically mentioned Trevor Story as a “perfect fit” for the Phils.
    That move would then allow Dombrowski to flip Segura for Kimbrel. Stott IMO is a more realistic 2Bman (or 3Bman) than SS.
    I still think JBJ (for a couple of lower level/not highly regarded prospects) is the most realistic option for CF. Bradley is a GG defender, and a good candidate for some kind of a bounce back season. His BABIP was historically low in 2021.
    I also really like the fact that the Phillies POBO has been aggressive in collecting LHPs this offseason. None of them are big names. But all of them have come at little to no cost, and they all have some upside (and MiLB options left).

    Finally … the other guy I have envisioned DD looking into is Michael Conforto (for LF). Love the LH bat. Love him as a teammate. He’s another guy I think we’ll have a bounce back season (especially at CBP). From everything I’ve read, it seems Conforto is going to cost a lot less than I originally thought.

    1. One last thing … I still think Middleton will spend over the LTT in 2022. The Mets are going to ignore the cap. That will catch Middleton’s attention. And (more importantly) Middleton has a club that needs to strike like right now. It can’t invest stooopid money in Harper/JTR/Wheeler and not do everything possible to take advantage of their prime years.

      1. So if I understand you, Hinkie…the Phillies would go with a lineup of:

        Michael Conforto lf
        JT Realmuto c
        Bryce Harper rf
        Rhys Hoskins 1b/DH
        Trevor Story ss
        Brad Miller 1b/DH
        Bryson Stott 2b
        Alec Bohm 3b
        Jackie Bradley Jr cf

        …I like!!

        1. I’m not over the top about this but with a beef’d up bullpen – Kimberl knebel and others … I could be pretty happy about this team for year 1 of 4 contention window. The Phillies will add another layer of prospects, and can then evaluate all the new mlb pieces added from FA, and have ammo to trade for upgrades (hopefully)

          Was looking to add schwarber over conforto & I can do story over Semien. That said, defense and the bullpen will make the biggest improvements to the win total. So as long as the those moves are made, I can deal. Kimberl can’t be the only move for the pen imo

    2. I wonder if a Kimbrel trade is already in place, contingent upon what the Phillies do at SS. If they truly are pursuing either Story or Correa (as yesterday’s SI piece suggests), Stott becomes a 2b (and Segura gets moved) or 3b (and Bohm becomes expendable). Kimbrel for 2 midlevel prospects or Segura and cash plus a prospect to offset the assumption that Segura demands his ’23 option guaranteed.

  58. Hinkie, so your guess is Story, Kimbrel and JBJ? Maybe a LF? I like Semien and Story because of their position versatility. I just don’t know if Stott is a SS, and more importantly, I don’t know how the team feels. Both 3B in Bohm and SS are mysteries, so Story can play SS, and also 3B, if Bohm does not work out. Semien can play 2B very well, but I am not sure about 3B.

  59. Looks like Eppler will now try to add former ROX RHP Jon Gray to the Mets rotation , losing both Stroman and never really having Thor from last season..

  60. Dang, there’s lots of social media buzz on Story to the Phillies…love this time of year! Hohoho…

  61. I am not a fan of signing Story. Imo he is likely to be way overpaid. His away splits are very average. 98 wRC+ away on career. .310 career OB% on away games. I don’t see him as a difference maker. If we get him for a reasonable contract, like 4/$60 then fine. But if we pay up for him with a big contract then I think it would be a mistake.

    1. Trevor Story is going to get a whole lot more than 4/60M, and he’s going to be worth it. BTW … Story has a career .954 OPS @ CBP.

      1. I don’t doubt for a second that he will get more money. I just don’t think that he is worth it. Very good defensive player. Very average bat outside of Coors.

      1. mark, that seems to be the rate for the Relievers, non-Closer variety, who have signed. I thought it was high for Loup, but clearly I was wrong.

      2. I wish he were coming back, but Hector is a flawed player. That said I’ve always said he will pitch in the big leagues until his late 30s – the world is a more friendly place when you have a true out pitch.

      3. I wish he were coming back, but Hector is a flawed player. That said I’ve always said he will pitch in the big leagues until his late 30s – the world is a more friendly place when you have a true out pitch.

        1. Hector ‘Scare-us’ Neris will be giving the Houston fans agita now ……nevertheless….good luck to the guy.
          He was a cheerful player and was good most of the time.

  62. If another top CF is unattainable, would anyone offer Haseley, Quinn, Maton, Morales and Martin for Buxton? Or maybe switch out Maton for Falter?

    1. Would you trade Buxton for that? Of course not, not a valuable asset in the group. It will take 2 of our top 10 prospects.

      1. Point well taken…then I would offer:
        Johan Rojas cf (hurts)
        Erik Miller lhp (hurts)
        Adonis Medina rhp
        *Didi Gregorius ss

        Byron Buxton cf (risk)
        *Josh Donaldson 3b (risk)
        Taylor Rogers lhp

        *Instead of cash considerations from Minnesota to help offset some of JD’s salary, they can take Didi’s remaining money.

        I would prefer Reynolds or Mullins but being that the prospect cost would be prohibitive for the Phillies, this would be my next stab at acquiring an elite CF, albeit with significant risk.

  63. Ben Clemens of Fangraphs estimates Story will get 5 years $115 million. Give or take 10-15% in AAV, that’s the range for a contract for him.

    1. Agree with V1. Way too much $ and yrs considering his road splits. I like him but not for that much.

    2. Basically JTR money and years.
      If they sign him….hopefully his splits mirror Arenado and DJ LeMah as when they left Coors for other home destinations.

  64. The good Phight said it perfectly

  65. The RP market price is obviously up as teams see how valuable they are. Phils will need to spend some money. However, the prices go down as time goes by, just have to hope talent remains for sale.

    1. Bargain hunting hasn’t exactly been working for the Phillies. Guess it’s a formula to miss the playoffs and choke down the stretch?

  66. We have done bargain basement Reliever shopping before. It has never worked out well. Still early, and Neris is not a Closer, but I would have liked him back. If they like Givens, also not a Closer, why is he signing for anything less than $8M a year? I believe that something is coming soon. Or, to be honest, I am talking myself into something is coming soon!

  67. On hector nerds – I thank him for his positive contributions to the team over the 8
    Seasons, I really do … but … I’m very okay with him leaving. He posted a 1.2 WAR in 2021, for a player with a 4-7 W-L record. IMHO, he was way too close to a reincarnated Mitch Williams. Don’t tell me you guys didn’t think he was going to blow the save more times than he actually did. Mentally, for the team, I gotta say it did more harm than we are thinking about. He blew so many saves but it felt like a lot more because of all the close calls. If you look at his 7 losses last year 5 of the 7 are against NLeast teams. I’m pretty sure the Braves have his number, sitting on the fastball. For those reasons – being on givens, knebel and Kimbel

  68. Traded or free agent Rockies’ players get a label attached to them quite often…..better home splits vs away splits.
    It was done with DJ LeMahieu when the Yankees signed him
    Then last year with Arenado when the Redbirds signed him
    Looking at Arneado and Story’s splits they are comparable to a degree.

    Home…..303/369/603……OPS+ – 124
    Away……241/310/442……OPS+ – 76

    Home (with last yr)…..310/365/588……OPS+ – 116
    Away………………………266/324/481……OPS+ – 84.

    Both RHBs….Arenado and LeMahieu did well after they left Coors Field.
    And oddly, Arenado actually had better road splits last year than at Busch..
    If Dave D decides to go with Story…I just hope it is not ‘stupid money’.

  69. Regarding Story, he has phenomenal defensive WAR (which plays anywhere, home or away). Last year he was worth 4.2 WAR — and that takes into account his ballpark, since WAR is park-adjusted — and in the less-than-half-the-year of 2020, he put up 2.5 WAR.

    If the Phillies pay him $115 million over five years, they would be banking on him averaging about 3 WAR per year for ages 29 – 33. He’s been significantly better than that over his career. And ending the contract at age 33 should miss most of his decline.

    I like Semien better, but I don’t think 5/$115 million for Story would be a terrible overpay.

    1. Agree with WC Phan. IMO, 5/115M would actually be a steal for Story in this market. The glove/arm are plus (would be a boost to the team’s pitchers). And, as I posted above, his bat profiles well here. Story has a career .954 OPS @ CBP.
      I think it’s an “either/or” thing for Dombrowski. Either he trades a couple of top prospects (Painter/Abel/Stott/Rojas) for big league help, or he signs QO FAs (and surrenders draft picks [if that remains a thing in the new CBA]). He just won’t do both.

      1. Story will get 5 years…maybe also a 6th year option (club or mutual, but not personal)…..push comes to shove, it probably will come down to the AAV.
        I think his ceiling is $24M AAV….and his floor $21M AAV.
        Higher AAV ceiling, shorter contract length… and vice versa.

        1. Speculation about Story possibly asked to play CF, with the flexibility of moving to SS if and when necessary. San Diego considered that back at the deadline when they inquired. Yankees could also have reason to do the same with their SS prospects within 2 years of debuting.

          1. Interesting…have not heard that about Story moving to CF.
            My guess wherever he goes….he is at ss.

          2. IMO, Story’s floor is probably 6/150M. I wouldn’t be surprised if a team ending it’s rebuild years (Tigers/Rangers?) give him 8 years/maybe 200M. In the end, I think it could come down to the Tigers vs the Phillies vs the Astros.

    2. Ok WCP, you make a convincing argument. His defense alone is worth 2-3 WAR and if they pay him $21m AAV then they are basically paying him for his defense. And offense is upside. So I agree that would be a good deal. I think Romus mentioned the JTR contract 5/$115. I think that’s a fair deal too. Personally I am not persuaded by his small sample size OPS at CBP. It is clearly an outlier OPS. It is nice but doesn’t convince me that he will be anywhere near that for the 5 year contract. Large sample size outside of Coors he has a career ops of .752 with a .310 OB%. He also hits lefty pitchers much better than RHP. His career BA on away games agains RHP is a paltry .224 with a OB% sub .300.

      I like his defense. No doubt a big upgrade over Didi. I just think his bat is very overrated. Imo

      1. Does Trevor Story hit better at Coors? Yes.
        Is CBP a hitter friendly park? Yes.
        It’s not like you’re taking him out of Coors, and putting him in Oracle Park.
        BTW … In addition to the strong numbers (in a SSS) at CBP, Story owns a career 112 OPS+ (that stat is ballpark adjusted), and a career 112 wRC+ (that’s also park adjusted).
        Would I prefer Carlos Correa or Corey Seager? Yes. But those guys are probably going to get maybe twice as much money as Story.

        I’m expecting something big from Dave Dombrowski. That’s what he does. That’s why he’s here. Maybe he throws Middleton’s stooopid money at a QO FA (or two), or maybe he uses top prospect capital on a younger, all-star caliber player under multiple years of team control (Reynolds). Just don’t anticipate him doing both.

        1. Agree with you there Hinkie…Correa and Seager will get mega bucks more than Story, even Baez or Semien.
          And longer contracts due to their one or two years yuonger than Story.Semien and Baez.

        2. It is a myth that CBP is a Bambox. Last year it ranked 22nd in park factors with a sub 1.0 and routinely is middle of the pack to below middle.

          Coors on the other hand was 4th with a 1.268. Coors has also the benefit of a larger outfield so more balls drops in. Imo Story is a very average hitter. Very good defensive player. If he is paid to be a superstar then the team that acquires him will be very disappointed. He has some pop for sure. But struggles against RHP and his stats are inflated by Coors

          1. …and do not forget the thin air in Denver……the humidor can only do so much with the baseball, especially if the balls are out of it for any period of time..

  70. Still sour on Neris. Would’ve been good for middle relief. Are Phillies really going to bargain shop for BP again?

    1. Don’t sweat Neris. Imo he is just a guy. Nothing special. A lot of relievers out there like him. I agree probably better to keep him but not upset about losing him. We have bigger fish to fry.

      1. Sorry to see Neris go. But, I agree with v1. DD will find another late inning guy to fill Hector’s role.
        BTW … I think the move will work out well for Neris. He’ll throw in a new league, where most of the players are unfamiliar with his splitter. I think the hitters in the NL East had seen so much of it, they had adjusted their approach/laid off the splitter & sat on the FB.

  71. Reference Story playing CF – I think that has to do with him having elite speed. Not only does he/can he steal bases, but I believe I read somewhere he is among the very fastest of all mlb players. I like the 5 for 125 neighborhood for paying him but imho concerned about his bat – not power, but contact.

    1. RU…….of the five shortstops….Correa and Semien have the best K%—-20%
      Then comes Seager in at 25%, Story 28%, and then Baez at 29%
      So of the five…only two have , what you may call, good K%

  72. .

    Don’t expect DD to make a major move until the CBA is agreed to (Absolutely endorse this).
    And the Phillies are interested in dealing for Byron Buxton. However, the Twins are still trying to negotiate a LTX w/him.

  73. Overall, agree with Hinkie – I think DD gets Jackie Bradley Jr to play CF. He is inexpensive to obtain, my guess, and with his salary – is eminently movable by Brewcrew. That team will need an offensive infusion after losing Escobar to the Mets.

    ?? Phils sign Rizzo (an east coast guy), vastly improve defense – package Hoskins, Eric Miller, Vierling, Hasely, for Hader and J Bradley Jr. Brewers desperate for a 1B man.

    1. RU….why get JBJr….Haseley does the same…probably better at the plate….and comes whole lot cheaper…that is of course, if Haseley still wants to stay in the org.

      1. Agree JB Jr is not cheap – but that is part of the cost in acquiring him with Hader.
        Ciada – don’t mean to say Story should play CF – merely saying that his speed is the requisite that would cause folks to say he COULD play CF. I don’t buy that either – he is a SS.

      2. Romus – If the bar is 1.5 WAR, would Moniak or a Vierling be able
        To provide that? I wouldn’t trade
        Hoskins for Hader. Now if they did sign Rizzo that could make sense, but the money to value prop is in Hoskins

        1. Tac3….sure, they could do that combined…..but 1.5WAR is basically a replacement player.
          And I am not sure would be enough to move the needle overall to benefit the team.
          I am sure they would help from the defensive aspect in the OF…just not sure if their offensive output would be a key contributing factor.

  74. RU – Totally agree with Professor Romus. JBJ is NOT a cheap alternative. He has a pretty hefty contract for this year and (if I’m correct) a massive buyout for next year.

    On another note, paying Story $125M over 5 years to play CF is not a good idea IMO. He is an elite SS so by putting him in CF means you still need a SS unless Stott is your man.

  75. Agree JB Jr is not cheap – but that is part of the cost in acquiring him with Hader.
    Ciada – don’t mean to say Story should play CF – merely saying that his speed is the requisite that would cause folks to say he COULD play CF. I don’t buy that either – he is a SS.

    1. Stand your ground, RU. Let ’em know JBJ>>>Haseley. And 1 year/9.5M is not a whole lot of money for a starting CFer. And Milwaukee would probably eat 20% of that money. And lastly, JBJ is a GG defender who is a good candidate for a bounce back season (offensively) because Bradley suffered from a historically low BABIP in 2021.
      Oh … and … DD has a history with JBJ.

  76. Romus, I have seen you post this before, Haseley vs JBJ. I get the offense numbers comparison, bit do not understand the defensive part. JBJ would be adding GG level Defense in an important position. I’ve never heard Haseley mentioned as an elite defender. What am I missing?

    1. matt13….”What am I missing?”….2019….Haseley with a 1.3 dWAR…same as JBJr last season.
      However, if in fact Hader comes along with the return package then I would consider that.

  77. Corey Kluber to the Rays… Honestly I kind of forgot about Kluber this year… $8 mil base… Watch the Rays turn him into a Cy Young candidate…

    1. Rule 5 probably is not a factor right now……the Phillies are max at 40.
      Maybe it is Wednesday’s CBA deadline that could be the factor.

  78. To quote Matt Winkleman, “ the Phillies better have a Plan!” And to add my two cents, it better not be to wait until bargain season. We were after Marte and fell short, we wanted Hector back, fell short, that cannot be the theme. I know we trust Dombrowski, however I see two avenues, exceed the LT or decimate the farm system. I’ve expressed my opinion quite a few times.

  79. Maybe the plan is Aaron Altherr? That is out of the box thinking, coming off his success in Korea! He plays good D. This is me being flippant, but also worried that may actually happen.

    1. matt13….it worked for former Phil Darin Ruf…who knows, may work for the soon to be 31-year old Altherr…….but can you really go back home?

  80. I realize that starting pitching is at a premium but I just can’t understand how Michael Wacha can get a contract for $7M.

    1. ciada…by the metric nuimbers…if one WAR equates to an aoorix. $8M dollar figure….Sox are expecting a 1WAR pitcher. 🙂
      Have to asume it is a pillow contract for Wacha to determine what 2023 $$$$$ will bring for him.
      He does a Craig Morton/Kevin Guasmann resurgence than he is set to do well financially in 2023 and beyond.

  81. No Romus!, all good wishes to Aaron, but not back here. Ruf had a nice season in SF, and I don’t want to try and duplicate that here with AA. Maybe he is a team’s decent 4th OF? But not here. Meanwhile, Semien gets 7??? Years with Texas and Buxton signs a LTC with the Twins. So, he’s not coming here for our whole top of the farm, and I, for one, am glad. So, John Middleton, step up in FA. No stripping the top talent from the farm. Spend money!

    1. Seven years for Smien!
      ….thata isa crazy.
      And agree on Buxton..Twins could come to regret that deal.

  82. Well Buxton just signed a $100 million dollar extension with the Twins so that Phillies CF dream is dead. Any one else get the feeling the Phillies are holding pat until the new CBA is figured out?

  83. Phillies – take your time and wait for bargains as top names come off the board! Can’t wait for another mediocre season of meltdowns!

  84. Siemen to the RNgers for $175 million (good Lord and their still pursuing Story. How that works out is beyond me. Note to Phillies and DD, teams are locking up talent before the new CBA as they must believe the next agreement won’t be as favorable to teams as this one. Players are taking the sure thing.

    1. Looks like teams are paying a premium to sign players before the CBA expires. Will the Phillies get in on it? Maybe Trevor Story to the Phillies in the next day or so.

    2. Giving a 31 year old Semien 7 years to play the IF is pretty dicey. You have to figure at least the last 2 years of that deal won’t be great. But the Rangers have money to burn.

  85. The Marlins enter the FA market with Avisail Garcia. We, however, are studying the landscape, hoping a bargain falls in our laps. Yes, the Eagles have me in a very bad mood, sorry!

  86. I thought the Phils would lose out on S Marte and have to trade for a CF. I also thought they’d sign Schwarber or Pedersen for LF. Both moves are still on the table as possible. I think they’re considering the closer market for trades and FAs but don’t want Iglesias now because of the list pick. They’re not making any of the crazy moves (trading Hoskins, signing Story to play CF, trading Bohm for Vhaoman, etc) I’m reading about. I do think they’re at least talking to Milwaukee but I don’t see them making a play for Hader while also trading for a CF. Losing S Marte limits them to have to make a CF trade and not having enough assets left for another trade. JBJ is not someone I want in CF for $9M.

  87. Incredible contracts being handed out. I can’t see how most of these contracts do not come back to bite teams (except maybe Franco). Not much help coming at current rates.

  88. First time poster. Really appreciate all the insight and differing opinions as well as the time and effort from Jim. My 2 cents (worth half of that or less):
    In a much earlier post there was a discussion of priorities for this team. First and foremost in my mind is a change in the narrative/attitude/team leadership. If that comes via trade, prospect capital, or free agent market I don’t care but I view the team as I have seen it over the past 4 years or so as soft. In terms of personnel on the field. priority number one left field bat. I like Shwarber or Conforto there but IMO this market is held up by the QO situation. 2nd Priority would be 3rd base and I would like to see a trade with Oakland happen for Chapman. Give me some GG defense at the hot corner with some thump. If we are going to give up the prospect capital then lets get some rotation depth too because Efflin is no sure thing in 2022. Priority #3 Closer. All I can say is we need one and I’m not sure how it gets done or what it looks like. I can’t say I like any of the options I’ve heard and the position is so volatile I can’t convince myself to pay for the frustration (its not my money, but its still frustrating). Ceterfield and shortstop are similar for me. Didi is under contract for what 14 Mil? How are you moving that contract with the premier SS’s available? How much money do you want to commit to the position if you feel Stott is waiting early to mid year? Even if he doesnt stick – can you get half a year of marginal d from him? tough call – don’t see good options other than waiting that market shake loose, but 7 years for Semian – no thanks. Hold. Centerfield – Unless you can fleece Oakland for Lazardo in one of Hinkie’s (I think) proposals, there’s your potential next Brian Reynolds but its going to cost – which Im okay with. But if your not getting one of Reynolds or Lazardo or to a lesser degree Mullins, then your looking at defense, which we have. So why pay JB Jr 9 mil to do it? I think the defense will suffer for at least the first half of the year, maybe longer. So get me Chapman, Schwarber/Conforto and lets go hit. and figure out how to get me Whit Merrifield to hit in innings 3 thru 7 when nobody else does.

  89. Since most of the major FAs have QOs, I’m assuming they aren’t coming to Philly

    Most top talent on trade block will require top prospects. We can assume those types won’t come to Philly.

    I’m guessing the offers are to Bryant and Schwarber as neither had a QO.

    I know everyone is high on DD because of his past but I can’t help to think who his boss is. I am worried we are going to hear the same BS (we tried but we couldn’t match on years etc) and then end up getting bargain bin leftovers.

  90. Angels keep up the activity and sign Lorenzen

    All i can picture is that meme where the stick figure is poking a rock and it says do something lol

    Phillies are that rock

  91. Rangers in on Seager and could turn to Story if they lose out on Seager.

    Rangers were rumored to be active and have shown the rumor to be true.

    I’m being pessimistic but DD has done nothing to move the needle since coming to Philly.

    Rants over. Hope everyone had a wonderful thanksgiving

  92. Patience, at the trade deadline all panic because nothing seem to happen
    DD made a very nice trade. Wait out what appears to be really stupid money.

  93. Seeing the news of the signings and the continued speculation (Mets chasing Scherzer!?) on the remaining big ticket FA’s I took a look at Spotrac and refreshed my understanding of the Comp. Bal. Tax. Why are certain other big market teams seemingly unworried by the tax?

    The 2022 math is maintained on a real time basis so you get a good idea of what the competition is doing. The economic penalty isn’t very harsh at the first tier when considered with the overall value of the franchise. Pretty much a rounding error for a billionaire. So I think the others aren’t worried about the tax because….they don’t need to.

    I’m with the camp that thinks the Phils should be in a position to pay some amount of the tax. In my opinion, wasting the prime years of Bryce, JT and Wheeler in a 50% occupied stadium as the Comcast deal moves closer to renewal makes zero business sense.

    For billionaires competing with billionaires who have other business interests besides the Phillies they should be paying more attention to: 1) the value of the franchise (hint: ask Laurie and Jerry Jones…it always goes up because there always a Ballmer or Cohen waiting to take it off your hands) and 2) the fun of hosting winning and playoff baseball and an maybe an occasional parade.

    Anybody watching the financial markets since the “Great Recession” over a decade ago? Rest assured, the Middleton Family Office and the Bucks PE fortunes are in a loftier place since that night in October when we watched Ryan Howard go down.

    So I want some signings and a team that can compete. They can afford whatever they want. I’m really hoping the marching orders given to DD are; assemble a competitive team, fill the Bank again and don’t let the luxury tax stand in your way!

  94. Not time to panic. Plenty of players out there.

    I heard that DD and Ami, the new research guru, have watched Moneyball several times. Ami is working on a list of low cost pitching prospects to bail out our bullpen and revamp our bench. On another note, Dollar Dog Night is expected to return. Many thanks to Hatfield!

  95. This was always the inevitable result. Until the owners start losing revenue at ST or the players salary, nothing is getting done. Nothing finalized on service time. Nothing on team tanking. Salary floors. Let’s all check back here in late January or early February because until then the MLB is dead.

    1. I think i read that both sides agreed on free agency …age 29 1/2…no matter how many years of service time.
      On tanking they also may follow the other sports like the NBA/NHL…..a lottery set up with weighted percentile selections base on a teams final win-loss record.
      Salary fl;oor…have bnot seen anything…small market teams will not be pushing for that.

Comments are closed.