2021 Discussion in Preparation for the Amateur Draft – June 24, 2021

2021 Draft

This is the Phuture Phillies forum for the discussion of prospects eligible for the amateur draft that is scheduled to start in 18 days (July 11-13, 2021).  You can place video, scouting reports, or just comments here.  You can reference these weekly discussions on the menu above.

The Phillies have the 13th pick in a first round of 29 selections.  The Astros don’t have a first-round pick.  (Or a second-round pick)  There are 20 rounds plus two supplemental rounds.

The Phillies have a bonus pool allotment of $8,295,000.  Bonus assignments for the Phillies’ picks are –

  1. 13th overall: $4,197,300
  2. 49th overall: $1,507,600
  3. 84th overall: $721,900
  4. 114th overall: $507,400
  5. 145th overall: $375,200
  6. 175th overall: $284,200
  7. 205th overall: $222,100
  8. 235th overall: $177,400
  9. 265th overall: $155,800
  10. 295th overall: $146,100
  11. 325th overall: picks in rounds 11 thru 20 are each capped at $125, 000 which doesn’t count against the bonus pool; any portion exceeding this figure counts against the bonus pool.
  12. 355th overall: capped at $125, 000
  13. 385th overall: capped at $125, 000
  14. 415th overall: capped at $125, 000
  15. 445th overall: capped at $125, 000
  16. 475th overall: capped at $125, 000
  17. 505th overall: capped at $125, 000
  18. 535th overall: capped at $125, 000
  19. 565th overall: capped at $125, 000
  20. 595th overall: capped at $125, 000

Contracts for non-drafted free agents are capped at $20,000.

Feel free to discuss the 2021 international signing period, too.  It began on January 15, 2021, and runs through December 15, 2021.

The Phillies’ international signing pool is $4,732,700.  We were penalized some of our bonus pool for signing Zach Wheeler.  The Angels are receiving the same amount and were penalized for signing Anthony Rendon.  Only the Yankees (Gerrit Cole ) and Braves (Marcell Ozuna plus penalties for the 2017 scandal) are receiving less.

International bonus pools are a hard cap.  Teams cannot exceed their allotments.  No trading of bonus pool allotments this year.

This space is for the discussion of prospects in the upcoming draft and international signing period.  This is NOT a place for you to complain about past picks/signings or the organization’s past/current draft and international philosophies.

52 thoughts on “2021 Discussion in Preparation for the Amateur Draft – June 24, 2021”

  1. Welcome back, Jim. Hope you and your wife are well.

    .

    Jim Callis (who always comes with plenty of draft intel) posted his latest mock last night.

    Callis still has the Phillies selecting Benny Montgomery at 1-13.
    He also adds … “If the Phillies pass on Montgomery, almost every team behind them would consider him strongly. They might be the first team that would take Cusick, and they’ve also been associated with Madden and the second-tier college bats.”

    1. Montgomery is definitely the kind of high ceiling guy that looks on paper like a good pick.

      2. Agree. It looks like he’ll cost full slot (4.2M), or even more. Callis says every team behind the Phillies is interested in Montgomery. It’s not far fetched to believe one or more of those clubs is promising the young CFer (and his agent) an over slot number.

        OTOH … Callis says the Phillies also like Ryan Cusick. He then doesn’t mention the Wake Forest RHP again until the Rays and Dodgers picks at 1-28 and 1-29. And he actually has Cusick falling out of the first round altogether. The difference between the Phillies pick (4.2M) and the Rays spot (2.5M) is 1.8M. If Brian Barber and Dave Dombrowski like Cusick’s power arm (top FB in this year’s draft), it becomes possible the club could save a significant sum of slot dollars. They could use that money to slide another high ceiling prep player down to their spot at 2-49.
        This draft may not feature generational high end type of first round talent, but it does come with a good deal of depth after the first round because the 2020 draft was truncated. A whole lot of college players who would normally have been picked on day two last year returned to school, and are available again this summer.
        A lot of teams may be looking to cut deals with their first round picks to have extra money to outmaneuver other clubs for day two talent in July.

        All this said … if the team loves Montgomery, and feels like he’s a top 10 talent who’s made it to them at 1-13 … just take him, and overpay him. They went 200 thousand dollars over slot last year for Mick Abel … probably because he was being offered an over slot bonus by a team picking behind them.

    2. x2 on well wishes for Jim and his wife.

      Now Montgomery might have a 70 run tool, and given he is 6’4, he should grow into more power.

      alas I don’t feel good about drafting high school hitters.

  2. It’s been a few weeks since I did a Phillies mock, and with the draft just two and a half weeks away, I figured I’d throw some more names out there. As always, I’m going to try not to repeat any prospects from previous mocks I’ve posted. I’ll take a final stab at a Phillies mock right before the actual event. At that time, anything goes … meaning I may repeat players from previous mocks.

    ROUND 1: Colton Cowser … could be the safe (college bat) pick this year after shooting for the stars last summer (prep arm Mick Abel). The 6’3″/195 lb OFer is cut from the Bryson Stott mold: long, successful track record of offensive production at a mid major school, who also played for the College National Team. Cowser has authored a career .354/.460/.608 slash line at Sam Houston State. This season, he hit .374/.490/.680, and he launched 16 HRs. Cowswer can play any OF spot, is an above avg runner, and is at least an avg defender.

    ROUND 2: Tyler Black … is one of the best kept secrets in college ball. The 6’2″/190 lb 2Bman is another mid major hitting machine. The Wright State LHH infielder owns a 1.079 career OPS. He’s also dominated the K-zone in college: 84 BB/52 K. This season, the Toronto native has put up an eye popping .383/.496/.683 slash line. There were some questions about the level of competition the kid has feasted on. However, Black answered those skeptics by going 5 for 9 (3 HRs) in the NCAA Baseball Tournament vs Duke and Tennessee. To add even more shine to Black’s profile … he won’t turn 21 until December.

    1. ROUND 3: Pierce Coppola … is another in a stable full of high end NJ prep pitchers this year. He’s a southpaw. He’s really big, and he’s kind of raw. The 18 YO North Jersey lefty is already 6’8″/215 lbs. He threw well on the summer circuit in 2020, and then saw his velo spike from the upper 80’s to 91-95 this spring. In addition, he packs a sweeping “slurve”, and a still developing CH. His height leads to extraordinary extension, but also causes him trouble syncing his long limbs. When he eventually masters that, his control should improve. Like Chase Petty, Coppola is a Florida Gator commit.
      Take a peek at the video below, and tell me he doesn’t resemble a very young Randy Johnson. Not saying he’s going to be another Randy Johnson. Just saying he resembles him physically.

      ROUND 4: Ryan Webb … is a 22 YO LHP who has thrown for four seasons at the Univ of Georgia. He was mostly used as a reliever until this season. The 6’1″/200 lb southpaw was enjoying his best year in 2021 until he went down with an arm injury that led to TJ surgery. In 11 starts, Webb totaled 59.2 IP, 43 H, 17 BB, 82 K. He carries a 4 pitch mix that includes a 91-94 FB with at least avg command, an above avg CB, and SL, and an avg CH. Brian Barber should be attracted to Webb’s track record of success in the SEC. He should come with some sort of discount because of his age, and arm injury. The money saved here could help supplement the Phillies’ third round pick (Coppola).

      1. ROUND 5: Mason Black … is a Lackawanna County kid, and a Phillies fan who pitches for Lehigh Univ. A year ago, he was getting some day one buzz. He had a good 2020 season after a breakout performance on the Cape in the summer of 2019. The sturdy 6’3″/230 lb RHP was throwing a loud FB (up to 98 MPH), and a two plane SL in addition to a serviceable CH. However, his stuff/command took a step backwards this season after making adjustments to his throwing mechanics. He went 72.1 IP, 64 H, 31 BB, 95 K against not-the-greatest competition (Patriot League). He really began leaking oil to close out the year when he totaled a combined 7.2 IP, 14 H, 5 BB, 5 K in games vs Navy and Army. Black is a good “buy low” candidate who (if everything goes right) could end up being a MOR SP. If not, his FB/SL combo should play up as a late inning reliever.

        ROUND 6: Niko Kavadas … sounds like a Greek God, but he has a Babe Ruth body. The 6’1″/238 lb Notre Dame 1Bman obliterates baseballs. He slashed .302/.473/.767 this season, and finished third in college baseball with 22 bombs. The 22 YO Fightin’ Irish slugger is a true three outcome hitter. In 159 ABs this year, he totaled 22 HRs, 55 K, 56 BB/HBP.
        Kavadas didn’t discriminate when it came to torching pitchers in 2021. He hit two of his longest/loudest off Ryan Cusick and Andrew Abbott. Both of those guys will be early picks next month.

        1. ROUND 7: Eric Cerantola … is a 6’5″/225 lb RHP for Mississippi State. He has some of the best “stuff” in college baseball, but some of the worst control (and command) in college baseball. The Ontario, Canada native runs his FB into the upper 90s, his high spin CB is almost unhittable when he manages to get it over the plate, and his CH is at least average. He began the season as the Bulldog’s Saturday starter. That ended after just a month because he was only able to go 11.2 IP over four starts. Over those 11+ innings, Cerantola allowed 10 R, 10 H, 9 BB, 6 HBP, 2 WP. Things went better for him as a reliever: 5.2 IP, 1 R, 3 H, 2 BB, 0 HBP, 11 K. So … draft him as a reliever.

          ROUND 8: Quincy Hamilton … is Tyler Black’s teammate at Wright State. He’s a 22 YO, 5’10″/180 lb CFer who has been red hot the past two years. Hamilton slashed .357/.471/.452 in the abridged COVID season, and has followed that up with a .374/.535/.771 line this year. He also hit 15 HRs and swiped 20 bases (in 23 attempts). While he was at it, the Ohio native really controlled the K-zone: 56 BB vs 32 K.

          1. ROUND 9: Andy Archer … is a 6’4″/235 RHP from Georgia Tech. He missed all of 2019 with a UCL repair. He returned to the Yellow Jackets as a reliever last season. He then moved to the starting rotation in 2021, and totaled 75 IP, 73 H, 36 BB, 77 K. He comes equipped with a pedestrian low 90s FB, a fringy CB, but it’s his plus CH that wreaks havoc on opposing batters. Archer is 23 YO. He’ll save the Phillies lots of bonus money to spend on another higher upside pick.

            ROUND 10: Matt Rudick … is another money saving, 23 YO senior sign. The 5’9″/170 lb RHH CFer from San Diego St is a career .341/.424/.435 slasher. He was at his best in 2021. Rudick put together an incredible .410/.484/.567 line, and the kid always puts his bat on the ball. He K’d just 9 times in 213 PA. Rudick is also a plus runner. He stole 17 bases in 18 tries.

            1. ROUND 11: Ethan Wood … is a unique prepster worth going over slot for at this point in the draft. He’s a 6’6″/220 lb RHP from Kentucky. Wood owns a three pitch mix, and throws all three offerings from two different arm angles. The kid mostly delivers from a three-quarter slot, but at times, will drop to side-arm. His FB is a couple ticks hotter from the higher slot, and the SL is more frisbee like from the side arm angle.
              Wood also plays 1B in HS, and shows plus power as a hitter. If things don’t work out for him in the draft next month, he’ll throw for Louisville for the next three seasons.

  3. Love it and can’t wait to see what Barber and company does this year. I don’t know why but HS anybody scares the bejesus out of me this draft. At 13 at least.

    I’ve kind of fallen out of love with Cusick at 13 and am very open to Wicks or Bednar there instead. Also open to either Cowser or Frelick if they fall there.

  4. Where are all the kids going to play with one GCL team, no Williamsport team and a zillion kids already in the organization?

    1. I think you’re going to see a number of fringe prospects released over the next few weeks, and you’ll also see some promotions. Casey Martin should just be the beginning of the movement.

    2. NL…… the Complex in Florida and the Academy in Boca Chica, 85K sq ft facility , on 45 acres. has adequate space for continual training, instruction and intra-squad competition
      The draft is now just 20 rounds…..assume 18/19 sign..
      So they should be able to manage to keep the kids busy until they get into the 5 team minor league system.

    3. Let’s face it, a large majority of the players in the minors will never sniff the majors. In previous years, they would hang around and live the dream. Now, they will likely get cut and life goes on. It’s harsh, but that’s the economics of the new order. There will be a lot more pressure on kids to perform out of the gate.

  5. Good stuff, Hinkie. Thank you. In my opinion, I see the Phillies going for a high-end position player in the first round unless there’s a pitcher they really like that falls into their lap. Barber is seeking high ceiling players, so Montgomery makes a lot of sense. But I believe Cowser, Ford (if they believe he can play OF well), and Frelick are all in play at #13 if available. I would keep an eye on Hoglund as a sleeper pick if they go the pitcher route, as some team will probably take him in the teens in spite of his TJ surgery.

    Pitching depth is strong in this draft, so I see the Phillies picking one in the second round if they don’t in the first round, particularly a college pitcher. I also like Black from Wright State in this round if they go position player. With regards to Kavadas, there’s no way he’s going in the sixth round, especially if the DH is implemented for all teams going forward. Would love to see him with the Phillies but he would need to be drafted in the 3rd or 4th round at the latest.

    1. Anything is possible, Wayne. But … IMO, 22 YO 1Bman/DH types aren’t valued like that. If Kavadas goes in the third round, I believe it will be as a money saving pick. I just think he’s going to see a signing bonus more in line with a 5th or 6th round selection. Just my opinion. And it wouldn’t be the first time I was completely wrong. Thanks for reading and sharing your thoughts, though. I like the feedback/other opinions.

  6. Lovey work Hinkie, Coppola not Francis Ford sounds amazing, I’m guessing that slurve should be tinkered to become a full slider.

    1. Just noticed KLaw says the Phillies could have an interest in Will Taylor if he indicates a willingness to forego a football career beginning at Clemson.

  9. Until they totally revamp their development system I hope they focus on college kids. Better chance of some playing and or trade pieces. Plus college kids may fit more with Dombrowski timeframe. But Middleton has to blow it up. Sorry get rid of old Phillies in teaching positions. They weren’t that successful to be teaching

  10. MLB Network will televise a first ever draft combine today at 1 PM for those who might be interested. I’ve never been one to get hyped about about workouts and batting practice but nothing else is on that time of day…

    1. DMAR…Benny Montgomery with an interview today….very intelligent, mature and a great talker….loves the Phillies and patterns game after Jayson Werth.

  12. So dug and found some in depth scoring reports on Montgomery. Great size and athlete. But some serious questions about ability to hit at higher levels. Sounds like a usual Phils pick and I am not sure about that. Can u say Dom Brown. College arm Wicks or similar and or college bat that has shown ability to hit advanced pitching. Phils need legitimate baseball players in the minors before they can truly compete again.

    1. Patso…..there are no sure things.

      Some 21-year old college kids right now, that are rated high as first or second round picks, …..were not even drafted three years ago out of HS because 30 teams’ scouts did not think they were future MLB players.

      Some HS kid rated high now, maybe not as a first round pick, but maybe 2nd or 3rd rounder, instead decides to go tocollege and three years from now he grades out low.

      There is no magical formula to predict success.

  14. Romus, some other teams have gotten tremendous young players through the LA market, which we have not done. That is the biggest failure.

    1. matt….correct.
      Every team in the NL-East, except the Phillies, have signed impact or starting LA players of late….Soto, Robles….Acuna, Albies, Pache…..Marcel Ozuna…..Andres Gimenez/Amed Rosario…some used as trade chips..
      Maybe that will turn around someday..

      1. Sixth sanchez – though he’s off the team now. The phillies have uncovered a bunch of low signings – Ranger Suarez, seranthony Dominguez, Cesar hernandez, Mikael franco. It’s not like they have gotten no one. Sixto was their big hit.

        1. Every team uncovers LA replacement players …..there is nothing impactful about Freddy, Maikel, Cesar, or the pitchers….just yet.
          Basically starters making up a .500 team.
          They need to get that annual 4WAR or better LA player….and they have not yet done it.
          Doobie….was an original Ranger signee.. but .I thought he would be that guy 4 years ago.

    2. Maybe the Phillies should replace Sal A. Just thinking out loud. He is an Italian from the NYC area. Speaks very fluent Spanish. Nice guy, etc. But maybe the Phillies need to sign a Caribbean native as the LA scouting director. Somebody that lives down there full-time and may have better contacts. Or better contacts with the agents down there. It drives me nuts to see all these very young superstar Latin players and the Phillies don’t have any of them. We make excuses for Phillies minor leaguers being “young for the league” they are in but these superstar Latin kids don’t care what league they are in.

      1. I thought that also about 4/5 years ago.
        But he is as good as the staff he directs.
        .
        Director, International Scouting… Sal Agostinelli
        Coordinator, International Scouting… Derrick Chung
        Asst Director, International Ops… Ray Robles
        Administrator, Venezuela… Pablo Arroyo
        Assistant Manager, DR Ops….Keyla Oviedo

  15. I understand what ur saying Romus but I have been to Lakepointe GA Area Code games and Diamond Nation and never really saw the kind of pitching I see more consistently at D1 college games. All I am saying is some college hitters have proven they can hit 95 as well as off speed stuff off of 95. To me maybe not the ceiling but more likely to be able to play at higher level.

    1. I can see your point, and the D1 guys ….especially in specific conferences like SEC, ACC, Big 12 and PAC12 holding their own. The level of competition is at the highest.
      Personally, I would prefer a college guy from one of these tough conferences.

      And , IMO, th commissioner keeps lowering the number of rounds, he is trying to get the colleges to take up more of the development of these yuong kids……and less emphasis on the minor leagues…….will never reach the level of a NFL system….but he wants to come close.

  16. Owners hired this commissioner and he is a bozo trying to copy nfl. He has no ideas or clue. Just my opinion but these newer owners are ruining game. It’s all about bringing new fans in. They don’t care about the baseball guy or gal.

    With the right leadership baseball is the best game to watch.

  17. I know those southern schools usually make up bulk of college World Series but they play so many more games and in such better conditions than places like the northeast. Colleges can give 11.7 scholarships total for the whole baseball team. So most schools even in the south are generally made up of in state kids. Vanderbilt And some other schools probably can give academic $$ to bring in super team. Southern kids play more but a lot of northeastern and northwestern kids eventually catch up. By way Denton pitched at Stetson.

  19. 10 Mets … Sal Frelick
    11 Nationals … Ty Madden
    12 Mariners … Matt McLain
    13 Phillies … Benny Montgomery

    Like every other mock, BA seem to have no specific info on what the Phillies are actually thinking/planning. Seems more of a “Montgomery should go in this part of the draft” thing.

  20. 13. Philadelphia Phillies

    Where their farm system ranks: 24th

    Biggest system strengths: Starting pitching

    Biggest system needs: Power bats

    How they typically draft: This is the second draft under new scouting director Brian Barber and the first under new GM Dave Dombrowski. They hunted upside and separating tools last year, and I would expect that to be a focus again this year.

    Best fits: The second tier of prep bats (local outfielder Benny Montgomery, Harry Ford, Will Taylor) have been connected here and fit the track record.

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31724757/2021-mlb-draft-guide-best-fits-biggest-needs-all-30-teams

  21. ICYMI … Mississippi St. crushed Vanderbilt last night to even the CWS at one game apiece. The deciding game is tonight. Great pitchers duel. Kumar Rocker (Vandy) and Will Bednar (State) are both going to be first round picks in two weeks.

  22. Two blowouts which mean each saved pitchers for specific games. Think miss st can hit his fastball

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