285 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of May 9, 2021”

1. How do the Braves get all the pitchers? I wanted Green for the Phillies even at the higher price; even more at the lower price. But we have DLS and Hale ready to keep a game close.

   1. Denny….Phillies could have got Greene for $2M….but then they would have to DFA a Dave Hale…no thanks. (tic)

      1. Hahaha, Romus. Anyone think Acuna was playing the ump on Saturday just to get on base with the finger? How can he take a 98mph fastball flush on the finger and then play the next day?

         1. Must have been the padded gloves?

      2. I think Joe loves Hale and wants to give him a job, I haven’t seen much from him baseball wise.

2. I was at that game Jim, thanks for bringing up a very painful memory. And they played the next night in the rain, yup, I was at that game too…
   The Phils are a 500 team again which seems to be what they are. They obviously need Bradley back in a big way. Anyone think that maybe Nola was effected last night by the number of pitches in his last start? I do because that’s been a tend with him in the past. After 110 pitches, he needs an extra day or two before his next start. They’re leaning heavily on the top 3 starters right now for innings but they also need them to last all season.

   1. Uh yeah, that’s what I was saying about 6 days ago. Once you get above 110 pitches, there’s a lot of extra risk that goes along with that, some of which is short-term, some of which is potentially long-term. Let’s see how Wheeler does – he was also pushed on the pitch limit.

      And, yeah, the Braves pump out arm after arm and phenom after phenom year after year after year. I’ve been watching this for about 30 years now and I’m getting a little sick and tired over that seemingly perpetual advantage the Braves share. And, oh yeah, they make better trades and get better value for their free agents.

      1. And let’s not forget…seem to sign better Latin 16-year olds.

3. Bad losses (Saturday) tend to effect the Phillies for days. Thankfully with today an off day maybe we can localize the ‘L’s’ to one game.

   1. Its the Braves that are on top of the Banzai Pipeline wave now…Hector the Lesser Protector opened the Pandora’s Box on Sat. nite..

      1. Have you and Rocco been together recently, your oratory has similar attributes to his? By the way do you know if he is judge advocate for Baeffert?

         1. LOL

         2. Skeet…..too funny.

         3. They are the same person with two different IP addresses. I figured that out 3 years ago. Nobody loves Rocco like Romus, and vice versa.

            1. Good try….but strike three.

   2. Hawkeye, didn’t the Phillies suffer a bad loss against the Mets last Sunday? The effect on them after that bad loss was a 5-game win streak, including a 4-game sweep of Central Division first-place Milwaukee who came in with a 17-11 record, games the Phillies played without Segura and Harper.

      1. Jim, I guess my mind was wrapped around bad losses last year and how it effected the team with the hope it doesn’t rematerialized this year.

4. I agree with jim 100% on Shane Greene. Even when Bradley comes back, we could use him, and this was a big miss.

5. Before we have to start talking people off the ledge, the Phillies are 18-17 and have only faced 1 bad team, the Rockies, and that was in Colorado where they are actually above .500.

   Aaron Nola has faced the Braves (twice), the Mets (twice), the Cardinals (twice), the Rockies and the Brewers. As a comparison, Nick Pivetta has already faced the Orioles (twice) and the Tigers.

   This is by far the hardest opening schedule the Phillies have played in years, if not decades.

   1. Guru…..that is a very good observation. Something people may overlook.
      Perhaps someone needs to call WIP up and Joe The Camera. and explain that to him.

   2. I think we’d feel different if they lost games in a normal fashion. Man, they just find gut punching ways to lose

      1. In 2019, the Dodgers went 106-56. According to baseball reference, they actually had 29 blown saves (Kenley Jansen blew 8 saves himself). Their save percentage was 60%. Now I’m not saying that 50% of their losses were “bad” losses, but I think we can give a conservative number like 25%. So for the 2019 Dodgers, they experienced 14 bad losses. My point here is that all teams will get bad losses, even the Dodgers.

         So as much as we would want to lament about the sad sack Phillies, “bad” losses are part of the game. The Phillies will experience more “bad” losses as the season rolls on. Do “bad” losses suck? Yes they do. But really, I think the Phillies have played decent considering their schedule.

         1. Guru, your numbers are inaccurate. The Dodgers actually had a save percentage of 78.2%. If you are going to count ALL their blown saves, you have to count ALL their holds, too. Additionally, a save blown in the seventh or eighth inning doesn’t necessarily mean they went on to lose the game. They are the Dodgers after all. Their 78.2% save percentage was 6th best that year.

            Here are their stats from Baseball Reference –
            44 saves, 29 blown saves, 73 save opportunities, 60 holds, 133 save situations, 104 successful save situations, 21.8% blown saves.

            1. Useless trivia factoid.

               Saturday night the Phillies blew three save situations in one game…one less than the record of four…held by the 1995 Astros.
               Was hoping the BP would established another record this season.

               https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN199509280.shtml

      2. Agree with Forrest. It’s not so much the # of Ls, it’s the way they have lost a couple of these games. DD has some work to do this summer.

         #1 need … a closer
         #2 need … CFer (doesn’t have to be an all-star, just give me a guy with a pulse who will make all the plays in the OF, can work a BB, and add a base hit every once in a while).
         #3 need … one more SP (I’m counting on Spencer Howard sometime in late June, but I’d like to see a guy like maybe Michael Fulmer or Matthew Boyd instead of Anderson/Moore/Velasquez as the team’s #5).

   3. I have to disagree. If Nola is the ace everybody wants to say he is, he has to come up big against the “tough” teams and come up big after disheartening losses. I’m not saying he is or isn’t an ace, but I am saying he’s no Steve Carlton. He’s no Roy Halladay. Yet.

   4. This is a great point. The Phillies have faced teams with a collective record of 105 – 96 as of today. This equates to a .522 winning % or 84 wins over a 162 game season.

      If you take out the Rockies–who they’ve only played 3 games against, i.e., a very small portion of their schedule–the collective record of the teams they’ve faced is 93 – 74. This equates to a .556 winning % or 90 wins over a 162 game season.

      After 20% of the season, the Phillies are over .500 with a few horrendous losses and some real issues, but they’ve faced good competition. If they can find more consistency and stay in it and maybe (if we’re lucky) beat up on bad teams, why not make a few moves to try to make it to the playoffs?

6. Again from first to last in NL East its only 3.5 games. No other division in baseball is that tight. The next closest is the AL West at 4.5 games.

   Jim touched on it last week and maybe there is no other explanation than this group of players has a losing culture problem. Something has to give/change.

   JT doesn’t have great feel for pitch calling either IMO. Last night another good example of that brought up by AROD. AROD called out that Riley appeared to be sitting curve ball when he took that FB down the middle for strike 3.

   Followed then by Swanson who swung on 0-0 CB and crushed it. AROD pointed out that from those two ABs it appeared the Braves had a team approach to hunt the CB.

   1. and that is just 1 of many examples this season so far with pitch calling.

      1. DMAR…..IMO, Knapp seems to have a better feel for the pitch calling for whoever the specific pitcher is that day. But maybe it is something I think I am seeing.

      2. Doesn’t the catcher get the pitch called from the dugout, or am I just thinking of something else?

         1. that’s college Pismo. The only call a MLB catcher gets from the dugout is a throw over with a runner on base or a pitch out which you almost never see anymore

            oh and the intentional walk

7. As great as Atlanta has been over the 3 decades, we have the same amount of WS trophies over that span. If we changed roles with the Braves, ALL WE WOULD TALK ABOUT was that the regular season didn’t matter just the postseason.

8. Here is a controversial take to stir the pot on a Monday….Klentak actually didn’t do a terrible job as the GM. His biggest mistake was trusting Johnny Almaraz who was a HORRIBLE director of amateur scouting. You can draw a straight line between Johnny’s failures and our current position.

   Good moves that Klentak made:
   – 3 Great Signings: Harper, Wheeler, Didi
   – 2 good Trades: Segura swap for JP was a win. JP can’t hit. JTR trade worked out because we resigned him. I am still high on Sixto, but JTR is the best catcher in baseball. So long as we re-signed him then we were all good.

   He did mess up with our bullpen but bet on some guys who got injured. Otherwise, Klentak did a decent job. You can’t hit on 100% of your deals. And Cutch might have been a good signing had he not gotten hurt.

   Why we are in this position is because Almaraz did a terrible job of drafting. I don’t think that our minor league player development was amazing, but clearly we had some huge swings and misses with our drafts. Our farm system has no top end talent at AA or higher beyond Howard. Bohm was a good pick. But the rest of his drafts were terrible. Kingery was seen as his big win and that has been a mess. But no help from the farm at all.

   1. The Segura trade was a bad trade even if Segura plays well (which he is doing). JP already has 1.4 WAR this year because his 672 OPS is built on a solid .333 OBP. His fielding is also better and at a more important position. He is as good or better than Segura already. Then we traded Santana. Yes he was expensive, but if you are counting offense, Santana counts and was worth 4.5 and 1.0 WAR in 2019 and 2020 (Segura 1.8 and 1.2). We also picked up as much salary as we gave in Santana from Segura ($14 million) and Nicasio $9.2 million).

      Without the Segura trade we could have traded Santana or Hoskins for something (Hoskins would have brought a lot) and signed free agents for the money we paid to get Didi or saved by dealing Hoskins). The trade set us back in the future in talent and dollars. An awful trade in other words.

   2. I assume it is too early to bring up the swap value of the Pivetta/Workman-Hembree exchange

      1. definitely early, but not trending in the right direction. That was clearly a panic move. he knew that he was getting canned if they didn’t find a way to fix the pen. was a bad trade, but the worst part is that clearly we couldn’t figure out how to fix a good pitcher and Boston did.

         1. ugh…that was me too. not sure why it keeps logging me in as my son’s account.

         2. Not Klentak’s fault. That was Middleton. When Boston wanted more than Pivetta, Middleton stepped in and forced the trade. Klentak had to add Connor Seabold to get the deal done.

            The David Phelps trade was also a panic moved forced when a deal for Josh Hader could not be agreed upon.

            I apologize. Every time I look at your son’s name I think of Holden McGroin, Joey’s alias in one of the Friends’ episodes.

            1. Lol.

   3. Something I saw over the Klentak era that I don’t think is talked about enough is the philosophy shifts. Like every season. New managers, new coaches, new philosophies. Just the switch from being anti-analytics to being too reliant on analytics. Those philosophies do not value the same skills, meaning they don’t value the same players. The MLB pitching coaches dictate the philosophy throughout the system, and every year we changed. On the other side, out hitting is the same. Taking contact hitters and making them pull hitters, because Just look at Scott Kingery. I do believe analytics are a great tool, but in the hands of a team that is scrambling every year for an identity, they are destructive.

      Also, as much as I like him, Cutch was a bad signing. Arrieta was a bad contract as well.

      And what is the cost of NOT making deals? I was talking to a friend who is the CFO of a huge company in Camden (figure it out) and he was sharing that his biggest frustration with the culture today is the fear of failure, which in the case of Klentak led him to do nothing.

      V1again, any time I see your handle, I read what you wrote, and I rarely comment on the site though Im here 5-6 times a week for the last 10 years. But to me, the most damning thing about Klentak is this: We are a .500 with the 6th-highest payroll in baseball.

      1. Pismo, Your argument is based on a fallacy. Major League pitching coaches do not dictate pitching philosophy throughout the organization.

         1. Jim, you know better than I. Maybe the coaching changes aren’t the issue, but has there been frequent philosophy changes in the minors over the last decade? It has felt that way at the MLB level, and what I read here on the site. I can think of examples at the MLB level, the ‘throwing up in the zone’ philosophy from a couple years back, for example.

            I appreciate your thoughts.

            1. That throwing up in the zone stuff came in with the MLB coach (Young?) but was not taught in the minors at that time. MLB starters had problems with it like Eflin for example. Minor leaguers who were promoted from LHV also struggled with it in-season. The biggest change in development is happening right now and has been in implementation since 2019, I think. That would be the immersion into DriveLine philosophy. Long-term employees who were not open to that new practice have been let go when their contracts were up. Not because they didn’t blindly embrace DriveLine, but because they were ardently against the change. That’s why some of their recent hires have raised eyebrows. They are looking for young, successful college coaches usually from good programs not among the D1 powerhouses. Colleges that needed and found that edge to compete.

               Now, they don’t have to be DriveLine acolytes. They have to be open to any way that will advance a player’s development. Players don’t have to buy in, but they do have to at least be open to the possibility that some DriveLine stuff can help them. They are provided however much DriveLine help they want. Some are strict adherents, others not so much.

               The pitching up in the zone stuff still exists but as an addition to a pitcher’s repertoire. I’ve seen it this spring. The difference is that it seemed that the former pitching coach with the Phillies wanted pitchers to do that all the time. That’s what eventually led to his departure.

               1. That throwing up in the zone (living room) is what I have experienced lately with the Phils. I used to drink a beer, but lately it’s Maalox or Pepto Bismol.

9. 1. Sorry, that above post was me, V1Again. I was logged in as my son because he was doing another wordpress account on my laptop.

   2. JP has a war of 0.5 so far this year on Fangraphs. he has a wRC+ of 99. Segura has a wRC+ of 151 and a WAR of 0.9. Their hitting is not close. Segura is a much better hitter. I would take Segura over JP any day. I would not want JP in my lineup. He is a bad hitter.

   1. You kind of lose credibility when you say that Segura is a much better hitter than JP. The difference is smaller than you suggest when you consider their home parks and the value of OBP. JP is also better defensively simply because he can play SS and Segura can’t. One can like Segura as a player (I do) and still see that it was a bad trade because of the other pieces involved (Santana going and Nicasio coming) and the dollars expended (where the marginal cost of not having a low cost SS while taking on salary elsewhere)

      1. Segura is a better hitter than JP and it is not close.

         Segura has a much lower K rate and more power.

         JP has not had a season with an OPS+ of 100 or more. Segura has had many including the past two years.

         You can make the case that JP is younger and better defensively. But JP is a bad hitter/offensive player. IMO, we are better off with Segura than JP.

         1. You are cherry-picking certain things about Segura. First, the point was NOT that Crawford was better than Segura today. It was the totality of the trade for the younger and less expensive player. But just getting back to Segura, OBP is the more important part of OPS and park affects matter. Crawford has a road OPS of 796 and 780 the last 2 years. OBP of 385 and 368. Dig deeper and the offensive difference is really not that great and then you add the defense where JP is better. And all that done for less than a million a year rather than $14 million.

            Bad trade for the Phillies even if Segura is slightly better today (and it is not clear he is when you add defense).

            1. You can’t cherry-pick either. The totality of the trade is that the Phillies had to unload a selfish, insubordinate, clubhouse cancer. So, no matter what, the trade is a win for the Phillies.

            2. Ok. We just disagree on Segura trade. No problem. Remove that from the list and my point still holds. No GM hits 100% of his trades and FA signings. But he has done well. Wheeler is awesome and under a very good contract. Harper obviously a stud. JTR was a good trade (because he re-signed). Along w Nola, Rhys and Eflin who were all in place that is the core of our team.

               The problem has been no BP arms from the minors. No starting OF prospects from the minors despite drafting 3 OFs in top 10. No SP depth beyond Howard from the minors.

               The core of our current issues is that Almaraz’s draft picks have yielded very little.

10. Carson Ragsdale made his professional debut on Thursday, striking out seven over five, one hit, shutout innings, topping out at 96 pic.twitter.com/b58P6qVtSO

    — SFGProspects (@SFGProspects) May 8, 2021

    1. One of the early Dave D trades…..Ragsdale is 6 years younger than Coonrod…..hope Coonrod can do some magic for the Phillies.
       Ragsdale looks like he will emerge in a few years to be a quality reliever…right now in Low-A -West he may a have an advantage over many hitters yuonger than him..

       “President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said the move purely was made for “clear and obvious baseball reasons,” not because of Coonrod’s comments last summer…….”None at all,” Zaidi said when asked about a connection. “It was really a trade we made for baseball reasons. He played a big role for us all year. Before he unfortunately went on the (injured list) for us the last couple days of the season, he threw four out of five games in a really crucial stretch for us. He was a big part of our team all season.”

11. I’ve made this point dozens of times over the years, but one last time:

    The Phillies had fewer draft picks than other team during Johnny Almaraz’s tenure as Amateur Scouting Director. Matt Klentak was responsible for that. He cost the Phillies high picks because he spent stooopid money on Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana. At the same time, Klentak failed to use Middleton’s money to eat any bad contracts for young prospects or competitive balance draft picks (remember the team’s payrolls were <100M at the time).

    Klentak did no out-of-the-box thinking, his talent evaluation was poor, and rarely won any trades. Last … but not least … his BP's were historically bad because he couldn't understand the value of power arms.

    1. Every team signs FAs. My issue is that the picks we did have he whiffed on.

       1. But you have to agree Klentak made Almaraz’s margin for error razor thin. The more picks (especially high picks that come with large bonus slots that can be used in a lot of different ways) a team has, the more likely they are to have successful drafts. While the Braves were eating bad contracts (like Bronson Arroyo’s) for just drafted first round picks and making other deals to acquire competitive balance picks, Matt Klentak was sitting on his hands. Other GMs ran circles around Klentak when it came to outside-the-box thinking. At least that’s the way I see the old GM’s tenure.

          1. Respectfully, I disagree. Losing a few second round picks because of FA signings is not the cause of the issues that we have. Almaraz never lost a first round pick and had 4 top 10 picks. his prioritization of command over velo means we have no BP arms. he prioritized hit tool but didn’t actually draft players that can hit. he failed by his own doing. and his failure has set back the organization.

             1. I gotcha’. I understand your opinion, and I respect it. I always enjoy your posts.
                I’m just really down on the job Klentak did. IMO, he was worse at his job than Almaraz was at his.

                1. Great discussion guys, fun to read, I agree in some points with Hinkie, some with Jim and some with V1… alas I won’t tell what with whom.

             2. Bingo

    2. All fair points and many of us commented on these deficiencies in real time. But recall too that Middleton had a hand in all of this – pushing for free agent signings for mediocre and overpriced players when the team was not ready to compete. So we lost draft picks and didn’t become competitive – a lose/lose proposition. A classic strategy to screw up a rebuild.

12. Blue Jays baled on Tanner Roark and Atlanta signed him, too.

13. Klentak’s first three drafts (2016-2018) have produced four players with positive WAR:

    Adam Haseley 1.5
    Cole Irvin 0.6
    Nick Maton 0.3
    Alec Bohm 0.2

    Obviously it’s early — only 3 to 5 years after those drafts — but that is not a promising start.

    1. And obviously Haseley is dealing with issues and we gave away Irvin for cash . . .

    2. I blame Almaraz more than Klentak. Matt is not a scout. He has to rely on his director of scouting. If your director of scouting gives great grades on a kid then the GM has to believe it.

       1. Almaraz’s ill-fated adventures reminded me so much of the Sixers under Elton Brand.

          Last year Brand decided that he was going to build a team based on defense and without good outside shooting (it was utterly neglected) because, you know, the modern NBA isn’t about 3-point shooting and why space the floor when your best player is an inside player like Joel Embiid?

          During a time when velocity for pitchers and power for hitters is at a premium, Almaraz emphasized control for pitchers and contact skills for hitters. When I first heard his draft philosophy (he was very up front about it), I felt I was going to have an aneurism. I knew immediately it was going to be a disaster. The culmination of the foolishness was the Randolph pick. A pick that was utterly indefensible the moment it was made. A slow corner outfielder with no power projection – fabulous.

          So, yeah, they did Klentak no favors saddling him with Almaraz.

          1. Yes. Exactly. Almaraz prioritized control over velo and hit over power. Exactly Catch.

             1. And drafted poorly — misjudged hit tools, for example. And had no apparent development plan that was linked to Alamaraz’s priorities (e.g., we’re going to prioritize control, but we have implemented a comprehensive velo development program to add velo to the guys we draft (see, for example, the Indians))

       2. v1 … just wanted to point this out. Matt Klentak did personally scout all of the Phillies 1st round picks. In addition, he had Charlie Manuel and Pat Gillick (a couple of his advisors) in to see all of their high picks. I know they all (including Klentak) saw Moniak, Haseley, and Bohm. Gillick also went out to Yavapai JUCO in Arizona to see JoJo Romero.

          1. Yeah, but Klentak wasn’t a scout. He has no background as a scout. He is an executive that has to rely upon the information that he is given. At the time of the draft, JA said Randolph was the best prep hitter in the draft and Moniak had a 70 hit tool. Ultimately, it was a scouting failure IMO. I am not saying Klentak was amazing. But his hands were tied with a lack of a farm system. His major moves – Harper, Wheeler, JTR, Didi, Segura all worked out. Cutch didn’t but he got hurt. Arrieta was a fine 4th SP for 2 of his 3 years. He over paid for Jake, but that wasn’t the issue. The main issue is the lack of help from the farm imo.

    3. Which team has done better during that time frame?

       Let’s take a quick look:

       Braves: Ian Anderson (2.6)
       Blue Jays: Bo Bichette (4.6), Cavan Biggio (4.9)
       Nationals: Jesus Luzardo (0.9 for the A’s)
       Marlins: Trevor Rogers (1.2)
       Yankees: Garrett Whitlock (0.7 for the Red Sox)
       Dodgers: Will Smith (3.9), Dustin May (1.7), Tony Gonsolin (2.2)
       Mets: Pete Alonso (6.4), David Peterson (1.1)
       Red Sox: Tanner Houck (1.3)
       Cardinals: Tommy Edman (6.8), Zac Gallen (5.9 mainly for the DBacks)
       Giants: Bryan Reynolds (5.5 for the Pirates)

       Looking at this snapshot, we can probably infer that the Phillies are in the bottom 3rd of the league, but definitely not the worst.

       1. Additional ones not in your list:

          Mets: Justin Dunn (0.9)
          Nats: Dane Dunning (0.8), Sheldon Neuse (0.3), Ben Braymer (0.4)
          Dodgers: Gavin Lux (1.2), Jordan Sheffield (0.4), Devin Smeltzer (0.4), Andre Scrub (1.1), Dean Kremer (0.3), Zach McKinstry (0.3)

          And teams like the Indians: Shane Bieber (10.4), Aaron Civale (3.1), Zach Plesac (4.6), James Karinchak (1.8)

          The gap between the Indians (or Dodgers) and Phillies is dramatic. The Indians is how you draft command guys — you do it with a specific plan to add velo in the minors, not with some mindless we’ll-just-draft-command-and-hope-it-works-out approach, which is how the Phils appear to have done it.

    4. Gotta consider player development, the kids have talent in deed, but we are not harnessing it, some other orgs are.

14. I don’t look at the Phils loss as debilitating to them. Happens to all teams. But what it did was rouse the Braves. If they take off from here they will reference this game as the turning point for them.

    You don’t want that to happen to ur big brother.

    1. Patso….that is how I see it…the Phillies will rebound, but the Braves have the MO now and may just spurt out far ahead of the pack…though we are early, only in the first furlong, but still it is disappointing.

15. Guru – The Phillies may be in the bottom third drafting these last few years but they are #6 in highest salaries.

    I hope the Phillies don’t go into a complete tail spin the rest of this trip. They get Corbin and
    Scherzer and never play well against Toronto.

    Finally, has anyone ever seen Romus and Rocco Moffo in the room at the same time? I don’t think so.

    1. ciada…..assume Scherzer will pitch Thursday’s afternoon getaway game at 1PM, he will have had four days rest by then…he pitched Saturday night and loss to the Yankees.
       But the Nats could go with their latest 5th guy in their rotation …..and start Scherzer in Arizona on Friday night vs the DBacks.
       The newest guy is LHP Jon Lester …a Phillie killer in the past….Career record-8- 1…with best winning % vs any opponent….889

       …and you be correct….rocco and I never in same room.

16. Excerpt from recent Insiders piece on ESPN by Kiley McDaniel:

    “Cleveland’s successes all come from a different approach to scouting and developing pitchers — none of whom were high picks, all of them coming from four-year colleges.

    The idea was twofold. First, athleticism didn’t perfectly map to command, but you know what does? Command! Secondly, it helps to be a traditionally projectable young athlete, but that market was already established and priced correctly, maybe even overpriced. So Cleveland aimed to . . . help less projectable or completely non-projectable pitchers improve their stuff. Tweak a slider grip here, drop a changeup for a cutter there, use weighted balls to improve arm speed, etc. Essentially, the tech that helped more objectively measure how good a pitch was helped make physical projection less important in improving raw stuff, the most fundamental building block to a successful pitcher.

    The archetype ended up being a college pitcher with decent, mostly average raw stuff who threw a lot of strikes, otherwise seen as a potential back-end starter or middle reliever. This type of pitcher had no enthusiasm in the industry and was basically who teams started drafting when they ran out of players they liked.”

    1. Draft approach and player development need to be linked, so there is comprehensive strategy. Have never seen evidence of that with the Phils.

       1. If you are judging their pitching selections….outside of Nola and maybe Howard, there have been many drafted in the last decade that had all sorts of injuries and set-backs…not sure how much development would be of value when pitcher’s arms give out.
          Looking at just 4th rounds and up….since 5th and lower, the odds are very low for MLB impactful players.

          Since 2010..
          1st Rdrs….Watson (40), Gueller (54) and Biddle (27)
          2nd….Gowdy (42), Imhof (47), Perci Garner (27)
          3rd….Seabold (83), Morhan (130),
          4th…..Eastman (107), JoJo (107), Oliver 9117), Morgado (141)

          1. Morhan (130),…that would be LHP Adam Morgan

             1. Romus meet me in May 3 room at 2pm

                1. rocco…..”May 3 room”?……..time to take your meds.

       2. Good points, WestCoastPhan. I read that Kiley McDaniel article too. Makes a lot of sense what Cleveland and Tampa do with pitchers and hitters. You can’t argue with the success each franchise has had (Indians drafting pitchers other clubs consider strike throwing BOR starters and Rays drafting short armed MIFs with bat to ball skills and little power). Those franchises have excellent development departments. I’ve always maintained the Phillies development staff was more to blame than Almaraz. Not saying Johnny A was perfect (no scouting director is). Just saying the Phillies development guys haven’t been up to snuff.

17. Not to change discussion, but the key to the season may be how the Phils play the Marlins? The past 2 years have been terrible, but maybe since the Marlins are better the Phils will be more competitive with them? We will soon see…

18. Like DeNiro in “Taxi Driver”, Romus talks into the mirror and says, “You lookin’ at me?” and Moffo answers him. Then they move on to “Fight Club”. Romus is Ed Norton and Rocco is Brad Pitt.

19. Gunnar Hoglund to get TJ surgery, tough break for the young guy. Who takes him anyway at the end of the first Rd.? Dodgers?

    1. matt13:
       Dodgers not the only ones that do that..
       Dodgers did that in the past with Walker Beuhler out of Vandy….2015
       Nats also with Jesus Luzardo from a FL HS…..2016 (3rd round)
       Blue Jays with a kid name Jeff Hoffman…2014.

       1. WOW what knowledge you have, SOUL OF THE SITE

          1. Remember Medina Spirit on Saturday….Baffert will not be there…will not go to Baltimore.

             1. That cheater Baffert, four times this year he got caught,

                1. 29 times over 4 decades….but 12 years ago or so in PA alone….1000 horses were tested….almost 600 tested positive for steroids……so it happens all the time.

                   “Jugging’… like a .Equine Energy Drink…..non-drug
                   1. Electrolyte Solution
                   2. Liver
                   3. Vitamin B12
                   4. iron supplement

                   Cut some garden hose up…3 or .4 feet…get a funnel….hold the horse’s head up and tilted a little back…. and down the drain to the belly.
                   Like a ‘Five Hour Energy’ drink…but for horses.

                2. @Romus, your knowledge astounds me every day

20. So MLB gave the A’s the ok to start looking into relocating to another city. Who would be the top cities involved? I’m thinking Las Vegas and Montreal has to be part of the list.

    1. Nashville and Vegas

    2. Guru……if they come a Central -to- East location, then there will be some realignment I assume. Vegas would keep them in the West.

       1. For sure there will be realignment if Montreal gets the team. They need to be in the East.

21. Baffert killed about 7 of his horses with unauthorized injections years ago.

    On Phils note I understand I guess tie to older Phils when it comes to development but short of 76 to 82 and 2006 to 2011 hope based on homegrown talent and or development stinks. Thanks for service all old Phils but organization stinks . Please clean house. Build from scratch

22. I love Anderson!

23. Pray for our closer.

24. If the Phillies want to show that they are legitimate contenders, they need to win/sweep this series against a clearly inferior opponent (the Nationals).

25. Sorry but for horse racing gang.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/tuesdayshorse.wordpress.com/2014/01/08/deadly-to-horses-the-baffert-effect-part-2/amp/

    1. Patso…they are signaling out Baffert…because he is numero uno….but it is more widespread than you think. Like I mentioned to rocco….1000 horses were tested in PA alone about 12 years ago, …almost 600 tested positive for one form or another of a steroid at varied and different levels. I have read where the drugs administered…the legal and illegal variety …are dosed based on the weight of the thoroughbred….average weight is 1000 lbs with a plus or minus of 100 lbs either side of 1000. What can you do outside of banning the sport altogether?

26. Neris just makes me nuts,

27. I am glad we won, and the BP did a very good job even though they threw about 98 pitches over 4 innings. Also glad there was some clutch hitting late, but I would have pulled Anderson with the bases loaded and no outs in the 6th. I know he had given up only 2 hits, and no BBs, and SPs should go longer, but he has shown no ability to get through the 6th, and I felt we needed more runs. He did his job with an excellent 5 innings, so why push it? That 3rd time through the lineup just hurts him despite how well he pitched for 5 innings. Maybe you guys don’t agree with me, but Anderson is not a young guy we are trying to develop to go longer into games, he is what he is at this point. I would have batted for him, congratulated him on a great outing and tried my best to score more runs.

    1. In hindsight sure it was a bad call, but during the game I thought that we should at least get six innings from him, it felt right at the time to give Anderson some confidence I guess.

       It backfired, I think Joe went with the feel of the game.

       1. Maybe have him bunt again with the bases full….make the Nats corner infielders come up with it clean…especially down first to Bell..one of the poorest defensive first basemen in the majors….ranked 18th last season by SDI-SABR.
          Think outside the batters box..

28. Romus understand but Baffert is dealing with million dollar purses and future breeding costs. Plus he seeks the limelight

    Why I root for the Shugs

29. If the Giants remain competitive all year in a division the Dodgers and Padres were suppose to dominate I imagine Gabe would warrant some Manager of the Year considerations.

    1. This had been a weird season for the Giants. They have one of the oldest rosters in baseball, and some of them are headed into FA. I think the Giants would have liked to trade off their roster at the break to speed up their rebuild. But now that they are winning (with a ludicrous 14-4 record at home), they won’t be doing that. Also, they haven’t been hit too hard by the injury bug considering their age. These are the following players that have rebounded from previous years:

       Buster Posey, age 34, highest OPS+ ever in career, option in 2022
       Brandon Belt, age 33, second highest OPS+ in career, FA in 2022
       Brandon Crawford, age 34, highest OPS+ ever in career, FA in 2022
       Evan Longoria, age 35, second highest OPS+ in career, option in 2023

       Kevin Gausman, age 30, highest ERA+ ever in career, FA in 2022
       Anthony deSclafani, age 31, highest ERA+ ever in career, FA in 2022
       Alex Wood, age 30, highest ERA+ ever in career, FA in 2022
       Johnny Cueto, age 35, second highest ERA+ in the last 5 years, option in 2022

       1. Looks like it is easy managing for Gabe with these guys….top four guys you listed were all all-stars at one point…all leaders also….and a combined career WAR for all four is 150.

30. Is it just me or does the American League look way weaker than the NL this year? Looks like the only powerhouse team in the AL are the White Sox. I would rather play the Red Sox and the As all day long than the Mets, Braves, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Cardinals.

31. The Phillies have now played 4 games against legitimately poor teams (Colorado 3, Washington 1).

    The Red Sox have played Baltimore (10), Detroit (3), Minnesota (4). They haven’t played the Yankees yet if you can believe that.

32. Coming up on 30 days when Adam Haseley when on the Restricted List…..wonder if he will elect to opt out this season!
    Not sure if the Phillies will ever make a statement.

    1. It’s been years since I managed employees, so I don’t remember all the implications of HIPPA. But, in the case of non-baseball injury or illness, especially that of a family member, the Phillies would be limited in any announcement they could make. Right?

       1. deal with HIPAA most every day. They can make a general announcement that Haseley is opting out, going on 90-day IL, restricted list, etc.

          They cannot indicate that he’s seeking/receiving any treatment, therapy, etc.

          Not sure they would do so even if they could anyway.

33. Romus I am going down to key west, do i put sun screen on my bald head?

    1. rocco…no, a JJ Men’s Monofilament Toupee will work better.
       Chicks will dig it

       1. Concur with Romus, you will be the Cat’s Meow!

       2. I cant buy this, I will drive the Ladies at the Senior Center nuts,

          1. Understand….cannot let that happen….but, doesn’t the Sr Center have defibrillators handy, just for that purpose!

34. 9th inning … Brad Hand vs Knapp, Odubel, and Brad Miller. This game is over. Another game they should have won. Someone (probably Odubel) has to catch that ball. And shame on Dusty Watham for getting gun shy, and not sending Miller on Segura’s base hit. Soto’s arm is nowhere close to Schwarber’s arm. You gotta’ run on Soto.

    1. Well … that post didn’t age well … thankfully.

    2. Well, Odúbel extended the game, but I’m not going to blame him for the misplayed ball because I’ve seen Harper not give way too many times before. However, I have a question for you. What practical purpose does it serve to have Kingery on the 26 man. I personally do not understand it.

       1. The only reason I can think of is that Kingery can play OF and IF since the Phillies are carrying 9 relievers and only 4 bench players (Knapp, Kingery, Maton, Miller). It’s definitely not for his bat.

    3. That ball had to be caught by Bryce. Bryce was clearly closer to the ball. Odubel had to run a long way and imagine if he tries to call off Bryce and then runs into him? Odubel would have gotten killed in the media for it. That one is on Bryce.

       1. Radio guys said it was on Harper, not Herrera. Missed the play myself so not sure.
          Btw it’s almost as if I was right about not hitting Bohm in the middle of the line up and having segura bat 2nd . . . 🤷🏼‍♂️ Instead ppl were “glad you don’t make the line up”. 😉 btw Herrera should have been the CF from day 1.

35. Wow, Odubel drops a blown save on Brad Hand with a monster HR. That was big time.

36. Oh, Neris……….could someone FedEx me somebody O’Donnell please!

    1. Auto got me oxycodone.

    2. I hear Brandon Workman is available.

       1. Only if we can give up a good prospect for him.

37. Great to see the homegrown players contribute to tonight’s win. Knapp, Maton, Hoskins, Brogdon, and Saurez all make major contributions.

38. Odubel is surprising me……a more mature attitude on the field it appears…all business.
    And now getting his swing back.
    Nestle in the back of his mind is the realization the club may not pick up his $11M option at the conclusion of the season.

    1. I am going to look back on his comparable stats from before his haircut and afterward. Unless someone else has looked into this fact.

       1. The announcers have said that Odubel has been working hard with the hitting coach. But one thing I’ve seen lately has been his pitch recognition. In this hot stretch, he hasn’t been swinging much out of the zone. So he’s getting more walks and putting himself into better hitting counts. And when he does go after a ball, he’s putting his legs into it and getting aggressive.

          In his last 7 games, he has bumped his OPS from .203 to .698.

       2. Denny……’Samson effect’…..in reverse.

          1. Hahaha. Yes.

39. 37 games into this season and my take on this team is that it is a team that should be close to that final playoff spot. I expect Atlanta to make a run too.

    But more interesting to me is that it is a team of extremes. There are aspects of this team that are really really good. Like championship level good. Namely, the top 3 SPs and the middle of the order. While the 4/5 starters are not good, they are serviceable and hope is that Howard can be a good SP this season. The bull pen has improved, but in aggregate, has a negative WAR and little depth. It is still a weakness. But imo the biggest weakness remains the team defense, which is 26th in Defensive Runs Saved with a -7. Didi (love him, but -6 DRS) is killing us defensively. Bohm (-5 DRS) is not helping much defensively either. His defensive weaknesses really get exposed on slow rollers up the third base line. Cutch is a DH playing left. And our CF defense has been below average.

    Upgrading the bullpen is doable if they want to make moves. Upgrading team defense is harder. The best option would have been to outbid St Louis for Arenado and move Bohm to left. But that ship sailed.

    I think this team is good. And if DD makes a big move, we can get into the playoffs. I think without a big move we will be really close. But not sure we will have enough to get in.

40. Hinkie, I must confess. I thought the game was over, and I was all set to post about how we should have signed Hand. When I am wrong, I have to admit it. Nice W, and vi’s post is very interesting. I also think we can be a pretty good team, and Bradley coming back is going to really help the BP. I, too, am looking for that DD move, and hoping the hitting outweighs our D, which is not good at all.

    1. Watching the game last night made me think the one thing this team could use is for Ranger Suarez to find his stuff and re-emerge as the long reliever, loogy on occasion, from the pen. If he could be as effective as he was last night (albeit not so many pitches) – over the balance of the season it would help the BP immensely – and the team as well. They need more BP depth, but maybe it is there ? It is also imperative that Kintzler get back to where he was / or near it – last year.

       1. Isn’t Ranger the pitcher who was phenomenal in the minors at never issuing walks, and yet he has 3 in his last 2 innings.

          1. In the minors he got by on command and changing speeds and being left-handed. In the majors those things don’t work as well when you sit in the low 90s. Lots of polished minor league pitchers need to nibble more at the major league level or their stuff gets hit.

    2. Agree with matt and v1. Id be shocked if DD doesn’t implant his very large thumb print on this team before the end of July. I think he’ll look to bring in a high impact player(s) through a trade(s). Could be a bat (Trevor Story, Kris Bryant, Starling Marte, Joc Pederson?) or an arm (Matthew Boyd, Michael Fullmer, Max Scherzer?). I think the team would benefit most from a proven closer (how about Josh Hader if the Brewers fall out of contention?).

       1. These players you mentioned are going to cost big.

          1. Except for Hader, Boyd, and Fulmer, they’re all under team control for just a couple of months (at the trade deadline). They won’t break the bank.
             Would you give up one of the Garcia’s (Luis or Yhoswar) plus a couple of younger pitchers (maybe two of Eduar Segovia/Ben Brown/Starlyn Castillo/Jordi Martinez) for one of the guys I listed above?

             1. To be clear … I wouldn’t make that deal for Marte or Pederson. I probably would do it for Scherzer, Story, or Bryant.

                The guy the Phillies could use the most is Josh Hader. He’d cost more. But … I’d work hard to make the Brewers happy in order to land a dominant (especially LH) closer under team control for 2+ years.

             2. Another problem is that the Phillies won’t be the only teams in on those players. So the other teams will drive up the price. And our system is not great.

                If Spencer Howard and Mick Abel are untouchable, that leaves Bryson Stott as next. What is Stott going to get you? Are you willing to part with him?

41. Jim, have you caught sight of Jabari Baylor? Or if winkleman is reading today . . .

    No word yet on Simmons, Baylor amd I’m trying to think of some others…

42. I have got home the last 2 evening to catch the last couple innings. Nice to see Hector hold on and nice to see a comeback. I agree with the Odubel should have been the CF from the beginning. Of the 4 he clearly has the most talent. I agree also on what does Kingery bring to the table at this time. He is not even close to hitting the ball on many of his swings.

    Lets hope they can get another today. I have found lots less stress only watching the last couple innings. Grandkids have been playing late night games is reason for tuning in late.

    Romus I was almost ready to add a 1, 2, 3 for Hector the other night but quickly he came close to the tying run up in a 4 rum game. Nats announcers were saying that closers just do not have the mental edge in non save games. It is obvious that they have not got the opportunity to watch Hector close often.

    BTW Hand pitched almost the same way in NY last weekend against Yankees. Looks like his pitches are simply too high and poor location. Plus he does not throw as hard as most.

    But still a nice clutch hit by Odubel. Something not often seen in late game situations by the Phillies.

    1. Don54….Hand is having his struggles, does not have ‘ hand’…..the Nats were forewarned from a few of his peripherals last season, plus his actual pitch-ball spin rates and velo that ticked down..

       1. oops …………Don53

          1. Romus, I have been called lots worse than Don54. Thanks.
             Take care. Time to go watch the youngster.
             Two out of three is good.
             Think first road series in a long time.

43. See Bradley is pitching rehab in LHV.

44. Corbin almost always dominates the Phillies. If they can knock him around today, I’ll really believe that this team has a positive future.

45. JTR on Covid illness IL, Marchan recalled.

    1. So was Nick Pivetta…..some type of side effect from his shot.

46. Is there any chance we can stay in Washington to play the Nationals all weekend, and have the Braves spend the weekend playing the Blue Jays three more times? Romus … could you look into that?

    1. LOL……if you were a betting man…..the first game tomorrow for the Jays is their first game back home off a fairy successful 10-game road trip (5-4 as of right now)…..go with the Phillies.

       1. fairly vs fairy

          1. Playing in Dunedin?

             1. yes…until June 1st, then Buffalo….but the actual home location would not seem to matter, that is not how the trend goes….teams coming back to their home field, after 10 days or more road trip…in the NHL, MLB or NBA….tend not to cover, and many instances outright lose that first game back.

       2. Romus, Phillies vs Jays has not been good matchup for Phils.
          Think Jays won all the ST games.
          Seem to win most regular season games as well.
          Good thing they are not in NL East.

          1. It’s not just the Jays, the Phillies have been terrible in interleague play. One of the worst records ever.

47. In one of the great fleece jobs that you will ever see, the Mariners obtained Jarred Kelenic (and others) from the Mets for Cano, Edwin Diaz and $20M. This must be karma for when the Mets obtained Zack Wheeler from the Giants for Carlos Beltran and cash.

48. What the heck!

49. Acuna injured again this afternoon…left leg…running out a hit to first base….left the game for evaluation.

50. Someone forgot to wake the Phillies lineup this afternoon. They made 2021 Patrick Corbin look like 2019 Patrick Corbin.

    1. It was brutal. Corbin was chucking sliders all over the place and the Phillies thought they were facing Steve Carlton. The hitters were rolling it over to Trea Turner and Starlin Castro when they weren’t striking out.

51. I believe sophomore jinx is a real possibility for Alec Bohm.

52. I don’t pretend to be a hitting Coach, but it seems like he is not getting good reads on the Pitch. Very few BBs, and a lot of Ks. He doesn’t seem overmatched like watching Kingery up there, he just seems off. Does that make any sense?

    1. Kruk mentioned on today’s broadcast that Bohm is swinging at breaking balls in the dirt like they were hanging pitches. And he’s right, he’s been doing that.

       Bohm is in a funk right now. You could see the gears turning in his mind. He’s getting pounded inside. He’s seeing a lot more breaking balls in general, and chasing a lot of them out of the zone. They’re throwing outside fastballs and high fastballs for strikeouts. It’s a lot for him to adjust to.

       1. Guru….actually his outside the zone is lower this year.
          ….last year 30.1% vs this year 28.0%

    2. matt……that is a part of it.
       Last year…..BB-8.9% K-20.0% .ISO 144 BABIP-.410
       This year……BB-4.8% K-26.7% .ISO-119 BABIP-.260

       The low BABIP indicates there is some bad luck going on this year …last year was rather high and probably not sustainable.

       Last year….LD%-21.4% GB%-53.2%
       This year…..LD%-22.0% GB%-53.0%
       …virtually identical…tend to think some of his hard hit balls are finding gloves.

53. Like most good young players the pitchers have adjusted to his weaknesses.
    It is now up to Alec to do the same on his end.
    It is a roller coaster ride at this time.

54. Corbin totally dominated today. It goes all the way back to when he was with the DBacks. Unfortunately, now the Phils can face him up to six times a year. When he is dealing like he was today, he is one of the best lefties in the game and imagine, he is the number three on the Nats staff. His big contract is worth it.

55. I case you didn’t see, or have access to it, here are some snippets from a Matt Gelb article today for the Athletic:

    Herrera
    He was swinging at more strikes. Those spring drills with Dillon — which included numbered balls laid across the plate to make Herrera’s zone smaller in his head — have continued into the season … Herrera’s swing rate on pitches out of the zone is lower than it’s ever been. He is right around the league average.

    Bohm
    It’s not a case of pitchers throwing more fastballs or more breaking balls. Bohm has simply missed pitches to hit in the zone. Pitchers have actually thrown him more strikes and he still hasn’t taken advantage. One of the biggest problem areas is right over the heart of the plate … Bohm was hailed for his advanced approach, but this season he has often looked like he’s geared to hit off-speed pitches and not equipped for fastballs.

    DiDi
    Gregorius has swung and missed at a much higher percentage of pitches in the strike zone. His year-to-year jump in strikeout rate ranked sixth highest in baseball entering Thursday. Gregorius’ .233 slugging percentage against fastballs this season ranked 178th among 184 qualified hitters entering Thursday’s games.

    JoJo
    The news sounds ominous regarding JoJo Romero’s future; the Phillies ordered various tests on his left elbow last week and have yet to disclose the results. “JoJo still has not decided,” Girardi said Wednesday. “Basically, they have not made a decision on what they’re going to do. He’s going … you know, he did his test. And we’ll see what happens.” Girardi would not say if surgery is a possible outcome.

    1. JoJo losing velo that fast is just one of the signs of UCL fraying….maybe PRP for him or TJ. PRP worked for some…Nola and Tanaka and for others not so much. Garret Richards.

       Looks like Padres top prospect and top LHP prospect in baseball may have the yips as they say . MacKenzie Gore is struggling early on in Triple A….BBs have started to become an issue for Gore

56. JTR on COVID watch? Are not the entire phils team and staff vaccinated, and if not why not? If a player gets covid-19 and chose not to be vaccinated, IMO they should lose salary for putting themselves and the rest of the team at risk. Of course, no one asked me!

    1. Take for example Gleyber Torres of the Yankees?
       1. Gets the virus in the off-season and recovers.
       2. Gets fully vaccinated last month
       3. Tests positive for COVID yesterday.

       Even vaccinated ….one is still susceptible to testing positive, as Torres did.
       Should they lose salary for that?

       1. YES. i have to pay susie when she is sick

       2. Yes, in reply to your points, Romus, but first off i was referring to getting Covid-19, not testing positive. Secondly, things can happen…. car crashes can happen to great drivers, but driving drunk or way over the speed limit increases risk. Isn’t there such a thing as taking reasonable precautions to protect yourself and others? Aren’t prohibitions on risky behavior standard parts of sports contracts?

57. New lineup by next week this time:
    1 Cutch LF
    2 Segura 2B
    3 Harper RF
    4 JTR C
    5 Didi SS
    6 Pujols 1B
    7 Odubel CF
    8 Bohm 3B

    1. Pujols is a negative WAR player who can’t even play the field. Even with Rhys struggling with inconsistency, Pujols still has an OPS over .100 points lower. The team should make calculated additions, but mostly to the pitching staff.

58. Has anyone checked out standings on MLB.com? They have an interesting column for record against teams with >.500 record. The Phillies have played more games against .500 teams than anyone other than the Rockies (Rockies, 30, Phillies 22). The Phillies have 12 wins against winning teams. No one else has that many. Although the Phillies are 12-11 and also have 11 losses, no teams other than the Brewers and the Giants have a winning record against .500 or better teams.

    Just an interesting stat 20+ percent of the way through the season–Phillies face good teams and beat them. However, it also means they’re only 8-7 vs. teams with a losing record. They’ll have to do better than that to make the playoffs. Bring on the cupcakes for a while!

    1. *should be: Rockies, 30, Phillies, 23) … Can’t do math!

       1. TY 65th i love good info, Wish romus had some for us.

    2. Yes. Phillies have the fourth easiest remaining schedule in MLB.

       http://www.tankathon.com/mlb/remaining_schedule_strength

59. One additional point on the discussion above of Segura vs JP Crawford:

    Some like Segura more because he’s a better hitter (Note: Segura has had a 98 OPS+ for the Phils; Crawford has had a 87 OPS+ for the Mariners). Some like Crawford for his defense. They have been about equally valuable — so far from 2019 through the present, Crawford has put up 4.0 WAR for Seattle and Segura 3.9 WAR for the Phillies.

    But there is one huge, gigantic, overwhelming difference — through 2021, the Mariners will have paid Crawford $2 million, total, for three years, and he Phillies will have paid Segura $44.5 million for three years.

    A good GM keeps the comparable player and uses that extra $42.5 million to strengthen the team in other areas. Oh, I don’t know, maybe the Phils could have used that cash in the bullpen?

    P.S. — yes, I know the Phils dumped the Santana contract, but that contract is ALSO on the GM.

60. VV pitched great again, on the road, against a potent Blue Jays lineup. It’s too bad the Phillies bats went into the tank yet again on the road.

    1. Some serious discipline (or lack of control by the Blue Jays relievers) led to a clutch hit by Hoskins. It’s about freaking time.

       1. Guru no the stupid 3 batter rule, was the reason, Do you think the manager would have left him in after he walked Harper? With a one run game with right hand power hitters coming up? stupid stupid leadership in baseball

          1. Of course not, but the rule is there to speed up the game and hopefully have more offense. It worked out for the Phillies.

    2. Never a bad idea to bet on a guy in his walk year.

       1. Hinkie the Left hander from Kansas college I read he is best lefthander in draft?

          1. rocco … Jordan Wicks from Kansas State is the LHP you are talking about. He’s got a high floor. but maybe not the ceiling Brian Barber may be looking for in a 1-13 pick (just my opinion). I’d prefer Anthony Solometo (the Bishop Eustace prepster) as a LHP at 1-13 over Wicks. Solometo has a higher ceiling.

61. I am always happy for a Phillies W – no matter how they get it. But I have to admit, the game tonight, especially the first six and two-thirds innings, were hard to watch (but watch it I did). I was excited that VV turned in his best performance of the season, and with three decent outings in a row, there is hope that the Phillies have a reliable back-of-the-rotation starter. But the overall “watchability” of the game left a lot to be desired, unless you are a fan of BB, K, K, BB, BB, BB, 2B, 2B, K. A “seeing-eye” grounder that bleeds through the IF, is more exciting.

    The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of an ABS. I know this topic came up earlier but am curious what others think. Frankly, I don’t remember the details of the comments only that some were for it, some were against it. (There have been games recently where I think the ump was using a random number generator to call balls and strikes.)

    It appears to me that far more pitches off the plate get called a strike then the other way around. Does anyone have data on this? Romus? The batter is obviously disadvantaged by a count that goes 1 – 2 when it should have been 2 – 1. But it is more than that. If a pitch off the plate was called a strike, the batter now has to protect that location and is more likely to swing at a similar pitch that is further off the plate.

    A consistent tight strike zone should cut down on K’s. More balls in play — and put in play potentially earlier in the count — could also cut time off the length of the game. Who knows, maybe games will consistently clock in at less then three hours. To help the pitcher, deaden the ball so that games don’t mimic HR derbies.

    Does anyone agree with me that an ABS potentially helps the batter and might shave time off the game?

    1. spin…agree the ABS should be in play next season IMO…I had enough of balls splitting the plate being called balls because the catcher was set up on a corner ….or balls 2 inches off the black being called strikes.
       And this will also do away with framing…… in of itself, is technically a skillful cheating art..

    2. I have to agree with many of the points that Rocco has made on this subject. I think if the guys in blue were a little better behind the plate we wouldn’t be having this discussion. There were two games this week where I thought the plate umpire was brutal. The players on both teams were shaking their heads and pitches well out of the box were called strikes. I really would like to know how umpires are evaluated on calling balls and strikes or are they at all? I think there is a need for better calling of balls and strikes and ABS could do that. I don’t know that it would shorten the length of games, maybe in the aggregate.

       Like Rocco, I’m not in favor of a lot of this revolutionary stuff that seems to be detracting from the game as I knew it as a kid growing up.

62. I guess we say that we love baseball, but in truth we are destroying the game, because we live in a world of rush, rush rush, The three batter rule is a joke, The manager cant do his job with his hands tied, They had to leave in a wild guy last night because of the stupid rule, Now we are taking out human error on balls and strikes, talking about moving the mound cause todays players refuse to adjust, Shift can be beat by hitting the other way, but everyone wants homeruns, When i was younger. guys played this game the right way, moving runners, stealing bases, putting pressure on the pitcher by bunting runners over when it was called for, but egg heads who are from the big bang theory, used there computer er and said if you don’t bunt its better, never take into account the pressure it puts on a pitcher, computer cant account for how much more in a lot of times, it takes for a pitcher to get out of a second and third situation, it doesn’t show up in stats, The path we are on with abs , three batter rule, bigger bases, longer feet to plate for pitchers doesn’t make the game better it cheaping the game, but i guess the new generation, wants a game that is less than two hour game, with no chance of a mistake by a umpire and all homeruns, take out the fundamentals of the game, We dont need a manager, use the Dh and just feed the facts into a computer and he will run the game and team,
    /

    1. rocco…now you are getting it…..AI…the baseball world of artificial intelligence.
       BTW…hope you had your $$$ on the Phillies last night like I told you….trend says good idea to take the visiting opponent to win or cover, when teams come home for that first game back from a 10 day or more road trip. Now the second game at home…..probably best to go with the home team.

    2. rocco…..where were you in 1968?

       “There is ample evidence that the public is getting a wee bit tired of all these ‘pitchers duels’” wrote The Post’s Bob Addie in late 1968. So after the season, MLB officials lowered the mound to 10 inches and shrank the strike zone to its modern size”

       MLB has always made changes based on outlying trends and hoping for parity in results
       So pushing back the mound 6 inches or a foot or so, should not be such a big thing.
       Though pitcher’s arms may have to take a little adjustment…and hopefully not more TJs or rotator cuff injuries.

       1. Comeon Romus having to leave a pitcher in for three batters is so stupid, It takes the game away from the manager, Moving back mound is like changing the size of the diamond, stupid Big Bang Theory guys ruin everything for traditonal guys and girls

          1. Why dont we do what King and his count did, He pitched from second base, and only used 4 fielders, You want to speed up the game , pitch from 45 ft and no relief pitchers, make game 6 innings like little league, everyone is in a hurry, WHY? Cause they dont like baseball in its pure form, so watch something else, and leave americas game alone

             1. rocco…..I feel your pain…..but the Commissioner is intent on doing it his way.
                IMO, do as the minors do between every half-inning…..get out there get yuor warm-up pitches in and begin….run the TV commercials like FIFA does……split screen…and for MB, between pitches….most are now 15 seconds anyway, some are still the 30 second clip.
                That saves about 15 minutes a game…which is drastic in their terms.

                The three batter rule..I agree is really not saving anything IMO and making it difficult to manage for the manager.

             2. Because 95 percent of the people don’t want to watch 4 hour baseball games – I sure as heck don’t.

                1. Then 95 percent of people dont love the game, They dont love tradition, Guess they are looking for a place to have a couple of beers and a hotdog could care less about the game being played the right way

63. I have been to Dunedin stadium a couple times and never noticed that they didn’t have lights. They just upgraded this whole complex; why didn’t they install them? Only 1,100 fans, and most were Phillies’ fans. Bet they can’t wait to get yo Buffalo.

64. Wow!! Moffo, very good job. Are you using a ghost writer? Or was that really your alter ego Romus?

65. I have rooted for VV his whole Phillies’ career, and I guess I can say better late than never, but it’s crazy how he’s finally putting it all together at age 28 (soon to be 29 next month). Again, none of his pitches are really plus, but he has an emerging changeup and the confidence to throw pretty much all his pitches at any count. So he’s mixing up his pitches and trusting his catchers like I’ve never seen before. With his recent stretch, he’s on his way to his highest WAR season ever, just in time for FA.

    What is he going to command in FA? Will the Phillies want him back?

    I’ll answer the easy question first, the Phillies will definitely want him back if he keeps pitching like this. A rotation of Nola, Wheeler, Eflin, VV, Howard would be one of the best in baseball in 2022. But if some other pitcher at Lehigh not named Howard makes noise and needs an opportunity, then VV can definitely not be re-signed.

    With fans back and more money in the coffers, I think VV can get at least 1 year, $10M or 2 years, $18M. He’s still only 29 and he’s been highly durable. But if he pitches well down the stretch (and in the playoffs), he can easily get something like 3 years, $30-36M from somebody.

    1. Guru…trade Vinny Velo at his peak value….the return for a few years of control on a pitcher can be very good….Howard is probably more than ready, and Morales is getting closer….ETA IMO Aug 2022.

       1. Guru…my mistake…he is a free agent next season.
          QO him if he continues on this same pace.

          1. I’m pretty sure I don’t want to QO VV and give him $18M+ for 1 year. He would have have to be spectacular the rest of the way and price himself out of the Phillies in order to get the QO.

             1. Then you will lose him him for nothing….or have to sign him fr a multi-year deal….which probably will be an over-payment.
                I think if he continues at this consistency level ….he may be wanting to look at starting at 3/4 years @ $14/15M AAV before signing with a team.

       2. Have you seen the numbers on Francisco Morales? SSS but it’s not looking good at all. You can’t say that he will get an opportunity in the future.

          1. I do not worry about that….in the FIL he was plus.
             Plus it is early in the season..

    2. I’m not 30M — 60M somebody yet, but If.he can give us 1 more effort like the last 2 I will change his name from 4 Inny Vinny to 6 Inny Vinny. Better late than never.

66. There is a palpable feel that VV’s confidence is building – he looked very good last night. He even managed to talk himself back into the game in a tight situation of his doing – he recovered and finished out the inning. At 94 pitches he needed to come out because the last 3 balls hit were hard hit ! He should have won this game and the last one that was thrown away.

    1. He kept his earrings he felt comfortable, it was the best I’ve seen him since he got 16 Ks against the dads.

    2. Good for VV. I’ve been pretty confident, because he was throwing for a new contract, Velasquez would pitch well this season/rack up >2 WAR/have a career year. That said, a career year is probably what this is. Zach Eflin (who has one more year of team control) is going to be more of a priority. DD may look to resign VV to a reasonable deal (maybe 2 yrs @ 14M). Vince’s health, his performance the rest of 2021, and the new CBA could alter that projection.

       1. Agree with you Hinkie on Eflin (age 28 next season)……multi year deal…..5/6 years , not sure, maybe $15/16M AAV.
          But on Vinny with a WAR north of 2…QO him…if he takes it great…if not and signs elsewhere get a draft pick I assume…they still do have that alternative benefit?.
          And at age 30 next year….he will look for 4/5 years and maybe double digit AAV into the teens somewhere.

          1. Agree with ~16M AAV for Eflin. However, can’t see DD giving VV a QO. Velasquez would probably jump all over ~19M salary for 2022, and the team would not get the comp draft pick. It screams Jeremy Hellickson all over again.

             1. But if he has a WAR >2….the $$$ value of $8M per WAR as Fangraphs had projected, would indicate at least a $16M AAV…so say for example he pitches to a 2.5WAR this season, which is not that unrealistic, it would suggest he would look for something in the $18/19M range anyway…..and this is not his Arb3/4 years anymore being under team control..

67. rocco – I understand how you feel about analytics, and to an extent I agree with you. But let me pose a hypothetical scenario.

    Suppose that you make a routine trip by car everyday. You’ve made this trip for years and it takes 35 minutes each way. One day, out of curiosity, you decide to ask Google for directions and you find to your surprise that it suggests a new route. And the one recommended by the GPS on your cell phone requires only 20 minutes. Do you ignore the “eggheads” and their technology, and waste 30 minutes round trip every day simply because the old route is the way you always did it?

68. Cole Irvin today 6.2 innings pc 81/59 1 er. 5 H, 2k’s, ERA 3.02. I’m thinking of a left hander we have who would do really well if he could throw 73% of his pitches for strikes. Rocco ……was Cole your guy? 🤔. Medina Spirit @ the wire!😎

    1. No let’s pay $4million for a lefty playing in Japan instead of saving $3+million on similar or better results for your own asset. Could have signed Green with the savings.

69. My father taught me to wait till the last minute and bet the 8-1 shot. Crowded Trade it is.

70. Here we go again, it’s interleague play and the hitters are getting dazzled by a pitcher they haven’t seen before, even though he had a 10+ ERA.

    1. Didn’t realize it before, but the Blue Jays pitchers clearly have the philosophy of throwing the high strike. They have gotten a lot of strikeouts from that pitch.

       1. Yep, 14 of them, but we are very good at whiffing and I believe we are adept at K’ing on all kinds of pitches not just the high ones.

          Should be an interesting lineup w/o Harper & JT, Cutch might be ok. Defense, Girardi postgame said “just catch the ball”! DD has some work to do, I’d say!

71. Just a pathetic demonstration of playing the game of baseball. Very difficult to watch this kind of stuff. Guys falling over each other trying to make a play, painful watching Bohm trying to play 3B, batters striking out with runners on base. Ugly, ugly, ugly!

72. Skeet – I imagine that everyone would agree with you about Bohm and 3B. He needs to hit a ton to make up for his play in the field. The Phillies have a problem at 1B, 3B, SS, and LF. After a game like today, I wonder how are they managing to play above .500 ball. In the short term, things could get even uglier if they have to sit Harper and JT for a couple of days.

    1. They are above .500 because they have 3 starting pitchers and 2 position players who are among the top 15 in pitching and hitting WAR and bullpen is dramatically improved. It’s not rocket science.

       1. catch – It wasn’t about rocket science, it was a bit of hyperbole related to the Phillies’ embarrassing performance in the field.

    2. At the beginning of the season, we knew what we had at those positions.

       1B Rhys hasn’t changed. Because of his defense, he’s barely starter level.

       SS Before this season, Didi has been mostly positive dWAR. It’s too bad that he has declined like this.

       3B We needed to give Bohm a chance at 3B. He’s still very talented but he’s in a sophmore slump.

       LF Because of his contract, he needed to be in LF. His D isn’t great but thankfully, his hitting has come around. He won’t be here next season.

73. Had to feel good for Anthony Kay with what might be his break out game. Sorry it needed to be against the Phillies. I got to see all three years of Kay’s games here on campus at UConn.
    He is a real gamer and pitched on short rest in the conference tournament a couple of times and won. His fastball then was 89-92 hitting 94 on occasion. He’s probably gained 12-15 pounds since college and it shows in his velocity. Always hoped the Phillies would get him.

    Disappointed the Phils could not put a hurting on A.J. Cole. This is like his seventh team and he usually gets pounded, yet he is still in the major leagues. Go figure. And finally, it seems like Segura has gotten away from going to right field. Lately he has gotten back to trying to pull curve balls down and away instead of going the other way or laying off them completely.

74. This ought to be a brutal game to sit through today. No Harper. No Realmuto. No Didi. Chase Anderson on the mound. Last … but not least … Robbie Ray (pitching for Toronto) is maybe the most agonizing guy to witness on the mound in all of baseball.

    .

    Also … not too far from Dunedin … Mick Abel is looking fantastic early! Let’s hope our 2021 first round pick has the upside Abel does.

    Mick Abel with 2 Ks in the 1st and touched 99 on my stalker and the stadium gun 🔥🔥👀👀 #RingTheBell pic.twitter.com/rKL6TJo2wE

    — Joe Drake (@JDrake349) May 16, 2021

    #Phillies 19-year-old pitching prospect Mick Abel just hit 99mph in his second start of the series in Fort Myers, striking out the side in the 1st inning

    — John Vittas (@JohnVittas3) May 16, 2021

    Abel’s final line: 2.1 IP, 1 R, 0 H, 2 BB, 5 K. The only run scored after the kid walked a batter, threw a WP, and was then removed from the game. The next pitcher (nick Lackney) threw another WP, and then allowed a base hit.

    1. Mick Abel's day for Clearwater is done after 2 1/3 innings … The first-round pick didn't allow a hit, struck out five, walked two, but threw only 28 of 51 (55%) for strikes … Fastball sat 94-97 and topped out at 99.2, according to statcast https://t.co/pcNC9C2RP6

       — Mitch Rupert (@Mitch_Rupert) May 16, 2021

       1. Also … the Phillies now have Spencer Howard shadowing Chase Anderson. Not surprisingly, Howard looks a whole lot better than Anderson this afternoon.

          Spencer Howard holds serve. Six up, six down for him on 19 pitches. Four Ks, all on fastballs. pic.twitter.com/Vh7PMP9wUy

          — Conor Foley (@RailRidersTT) May 16, 2021

          1. Moore and Anderson a waste of $7 million.

75. What’s the word on Knapp out.

    1. On TV, I think they said Knapp reported stiffness to his side.

76. BP pitcher.

77. Phillies' outfield defense: pic.twitter.com/i4SWg0J8jP

    — Garion Thorne (@GarionThorne) May 16, 2021

    .

    Can anybody put together the highlights/lowlights from last night’s game and today’s game, and use this music under them?

    1. The Blue Jays announcers are having a field day ripping the Phillies’ defense.

       1. But why? 🙂

          1. Not sure if people know this but the Blue Jays announcers are one of the worst in baseball. They are one of the biggest homers, even worse than those YES guys in NY. My buddy has lost a lot of interest in Blue Jays baseball because he can’t stand the announcers.

             1. Can’t stand Buck Martinez his voice is grating!

    2. I told you (above) this was going to be a brutal game to sit through.

       The broadcast showed a confrontation in the dugout between Joe Girardi and Jean Segura. Segura did not go to the mound with the rest of the infield when Girardi came to remove Chase Anderson.

       — Matt Gelb (@MattGelb) May 16, 2021

       LOL. Girardi can’t even take Segura out of the game. There’s nobody available to replace him with.

    3. Good one, Hinkie. By Tuesday some of these guys, including the right fielder better be back in the minors, released or dfa’d. This is embarrassing, putting this type of a product on the field in an attempt to impersonate a major league team.

78. Well, Chase Anderson was due to get ripped, and David Hale comes in as the long man to mop it up and eat innings.

79. Phillies will need a lift….maybe it is time for Spencer Howard to provide that.

    1. Romus……..if a manager holds up 4 fingers to the umpire it is a signal that he wants to walk the batter and it makes the game move along faster.

       Now, may a manager hold up 3 fingers to signify he is willing to take an out in lieu of having a guy stand up there and whiff 3 times (double meaning if you catch my drift).

       I know 2 fingers announces a double switch and 1 finger means I didn’t agree with your call and will be handing the lineup card to the bench coach because I’ll be viewing the game from the clubhouse.

       I was glad Maton showed up today.

       1. That one finger has some significant meaning I suppose.

          Though Joe and Bryce seem to have a close conversation going on …wonder what that was all about…..surely Bryce did not make any comments about Kingery’s strike-out!

80. I would rather see a wooden Indian at the plate than Scott Kingery. No mas. Por favor.

    1. NL…It would not surprise me if they DFA Kingery and add Luke Williams to the 40.
       I do not think Kingery will be claimed so he can re-sign and head to LHV.

       1. I was thinking the same thing. Kingery is so lost at the plate that I find it hard to believe that another team will take a chance at his contract (still owed $15M).

81. Just a brutal game. Anderson and Hale throwing BP, defensive miscues galore, and I can’t rip Kingery. It is just sad watching him. I know Brad Miller is a bench player and bats left handed vs a left handed Pitcher, but his AB with the bases loaded and 1 out was one of the worst you will ever see. He swung and missed at a breaking ball after it was already past him, then Kd on a pitch with his feet moving in different directions so he actually flailed, off balance at the pitch. And Segura botched a play while showboating and got mad at Girardi for saying something to him. Pathetic!

82. And then there’s Maton.

83. Pitchers on last year’s team ranked by 2021 WAR so far, one-quarter of the way through the season:

    Zack Wheeler 1.8
    Cole Irvin 1.3
    Aaron Nola 1.3
    Nick Pivetta 1.0
    Zach Eflin 1.2
    Vince Velasquez 0.7

    Pretty good group of six starters! And affordable, too!

    1. Eflin should be above PIvetta (obviously)

84. Kudos to Nick Maton! He has earned a spot while Kingery has earned a ticket back to LHV. He may be hurt, but I expect multiple Roster moves before Tuesday’s game.

    1. Maton is showing me something today. Took Robbie Ray deep twice (lefty on lefty action) which is a bit surprising. He’s taking full advantage of his opportunities with the injuries to Didi and Jean. Keep it up.

85. There will definitely be some movement before Tuesday’s game. Kingery is either headed down to Lehigh or the IL. Harper is clearly not 100% as he tried to bunt today, so you figure he’ll be out multiple days at least. At the minimum, Torreyes/Moniak should be up because they’re on the 40 man. But Jankowski and even Luke Williams might be in play if somebody gets DFAd.

    Also, Archie Bradley should be back so Ranger should be headed back down.

    1. I don’t think MM, he is having more than he can handle at AAA. As I stated above, DD has a good bit of work to do between now and Tuesday!

86. I gotta give the Phillies some props, they could have easily packed it and headed for the plane down 7-0 early. No JT, no Knapp, not healthy Bryce and the Phillies battled to make it interesting.

    Don’t look now, but the more Odubel keeps on hitting, the more likely he’ll get his option picked up.

    1. Based off of what we are seeing right now, I agree with you about Odubel. I am really happy for the guy. And the Phillies have the luxury to see how he performs over a full season. Plus, I believe there is a second option year valued at $12.5 MM. So far, he is hitting more balls to the opposite field — 33% v. 20% for his career.

       However, I wonder if the Phillies will take a shot at Comforto instead, that is, assuming the Mets aren’t able to keep him from testing the FA market.

       1. Conforto’s agent is Scott Boras…..Middleton and Boras do have a relationship via Bryce….perhaps there will be something there.
          Also Conforto situation may be dictated by the Thor re-signing if comes back healthy and productive in his return.

       2. I don’t think the Mets can afford to give Conforto what he wants i.e. $20M per year. It’s more likely that the Mets will slap him with a QO.

          The Phillies won’t be signing Conforto either. The Phillies are already giving 3 players $20M+ (Wheeler, Harper, Realmuto). I think the Phillies could pay 1 more player $20M+ (definitely not 2) but it won’t be Conforto.

          The Phillies will need somebody to step up and take LF in 2022.

          1. If Nick Maton is the real deal…..LF could be on his plate.
             Girardi already was thinking eventually OF for him when he decided to have take balls out there.
             Middle infielders are probably the better athletes on a team, as to versatility at other positions…….one, though who was not, that comes to mind was Cesar going out to CF.

             1. Romus – I would hate to waste Maton’s glove in the OF since he appears to be a solid middle infielder. Next year, barring any significant moves, I’d rather see the Phillies try Bohm in LF, DiDi to 3B, and give Maton SS. The IF defense improves, and the OF defense … well .. ?

                1. spin…..that would work. Bohm actually could be an excellent LFer…he has a strong arm, and once he gets going he can run with enough speed.
                   Even Segura could play third, but rather he stayed at second.

             2. Next season, the Phillies will have at the minimum Quinn, Haseley, Moniak for LF and CF. This is not including Odubel who’s forcing the Phillies hand to pick up his option. Maton could be in the mix, but I would rather Maton play 3B and move Bohm to LF.

                1. I definitely agree with Bohm to LF, but why do you prefer Maton at 3B and DiDi at SS rather then the other way around? I believe (but cannot back this up) that Maton has better range than DiDi.

                2. @Spinrate, I don’t have a problem with Didi at 3B if he’s open to the move.

                3. The Phillies starting CF in 2022 is not in the organization. In no way could it be Moniak or Haseley for the simple reason that neither are close to being good enough. Maybe under Klentak who gave me the impression that he would rather lose than admit he made a mistake. DD won’t put up with that and really has no choice except to look outside the organization unless Herrera performs really well the rest of the year.

87. Chase Anderson currently has an ERA of 6.96.

    Spencer Howard threw 58 pitches to get through 4 innings. He’s been lights out in 3 starts (9 innings total).

    I figure Chase Anderson has maybe 1-2 starts left before he loses his spot to Howard.

    1. Assuming Suarez is sent down when Bradley returns, who is off the active roster when Howard is promoted — Hale? I can’t image anyone else.

       1. I’m guessing Chase Anderson will be DFAd. He’s only making $4M and the reality is, he should be the long man but the Phillies have that with Hale.

          1. So much for Dave D’s back-of-the-rotation signings.

             1. When you sign cheap, sometimes you get cheap. But hey, it could be a lot worse. Look at this:

                James Paxton 1 year, $8.5M, out for the season
                Jose Quintana 1 year, $8M, 9 ERA
                Drew Smyly, 1 year, $11M, 5+ ERA
                Mike Minor, 2 years, $18M, 5+ ERA
                Charlie Morton, 1 year, $15M, 5+ ERA

                The Blue Jays last season gave Tanner Roark, 2 years, $24M. They cut him earlier this season and ate $12M.

88. It’s unfortunate that the Phillies will likely miss Pivetta when Boston comes to town next weekend. It would have been a fun game to watch.

    1. Pivetta’s last 3 starts were against the Tigers, @ Orioles, Angels. His next start will be @ Blue Jays on Thursday. Good luck with that one.

       1. The Angels and the Jays have put up very similar team numbers, and he handled the Angels very well in that last start. If he goes through the Jay’s line-up like that, I will get sick to my stomach.

          1. He seems to limit himself to six innings before exiting….too many walks, hi-PC…but Saturday he had plus control.
             https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=pivetni01&t=p&year=2021

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