There is always a moderate to phanatical interest among Phuture Phillies’ readers when baseball sites release prospect rankings and organizational strength rankings.
I find comparisons against other organizations by the various ranking groups very uninteresting. Each site ranks prospects by their own criteria which can differ greatly. The same can be said when they try to rank organizations. But, one thing is certain, these rankings do generate discussion among avid baseball fans.
For Phillies fans, these discussions are usually critical of the way they draft players and how those players are developed.
About a week ago, Baseball America published their organizational rankings. They placed the Phillies in the bottom five.
SWFL Frank shared the following on August 12th.
Baseball America released its mid-season farm system rankings. The Phillies are a rousing 26th.
“Here’s BA’s comment: In normal systems, having two Top 30 prospects would mean inclusion in the upper echelon of baseball. Aside from first-round picks RHP Mick Abel and SS Bryson Stott, however, the system’s quality takes a short, sharp dive. Third-round pick SS Casey Martin, who was among the most tooled-up players available in the draft, could give the group a boost with a strong pro debut in 2021, however.”
This season, the Phillies have promoted their top two prospects, Spencer Howard and Alec Bohm. It is entirely probable that both lose their rookie status this season. MLB defines the rookie status of drafted or draft-eligible prospects as follows –
“To be eligible for a list, a player must have rookie eligibility. To qualify for rookie status, a player must not have exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues, or accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the 25-player limit period, excluding time on the disabled list or in military service.”
The 2020 season ends on September 27th. Howard’s contract was selected on August 9th giving him 23 days on the active roster in August plus 27 days in September for a total of 50 days. Bohm’s contract was selected on August 13th giving him 19 days on the active roster in August plus 27 days in September for a total of 46 days.
Counting Tuesday’s game in Boston, the Phillies have 42 games remaining. Bohm has 20 plate appearances and 17 at bats in his first five games, batting in the second half of the line up. He should play most, if not all, games and should easily accumulate the 130 at bats (I’m surprised it’s not plate appearances).
Howard, on the other hand, probably gets just 8 more starts. He has pitched 8.0 innings in his first two starts. He would have to go deeper in games to hit the 50 innings mark. However, as I noted above, he does surpass the 45 days that would negate his rookie status next season.
A new Phillies’ Top 30 will be headed by Bryson Stott and Mick Abel. The remaining current top 30 prospects are dotted with guys who are moving in the wrong direction, guys who have been recently DFA-ed, and guys who are getting too old to seriously be considered prospects.
So, assuming that both Spencer Howard and Alec Bohm graduate from rookie status, how much further does the Phillies prospect organizational ranking drop?
Phuture Phillies 
It will be a lot, Jim. Without a season of Minor League games, the national perception of Stott and Abel won’t have has a chance to rise. Casey Martin won’t have had an opportunity to show he is a genuine prospect, so I expect that our ranking is bottom 7, and quite possibly lower..
Two questions: (1) will Mick Abel “flame-out” like so, so many high school first-round pitchers before him (i.e. Brady Aiken, Riley Pint, etc., etc.)? (2) what are Mickey Moniak’s reasonable chances to be a future Phillie?
Prospects flame out all the time, even high picks. So the odds against Mick Abel are pretty high already. That said, you just hope and see what happens. He’s going to spend a minimum of 3 years in the system.
Mickey is still only 22, so he has that going for him. He should be 23 at Lehigh in 2021, which is ok. As long as he doesn’t implode, he should at least get a callup in the near future. If he could hit enough and flash a decent glove, he might be able to stick as a bench player. If you’re hoping that he could be a starter (or a future all-star), the odds are way against him for that. MM would have to have a monumental season at Lehigh, something that he has not done at any of his previous levels.
Phillies do seem to have , IMO,
many prospects, about a dozen, who are right on the cusp between soaring upwards with their next minor league season,
or just taking a dive ‘cus you can’t halt the slide floating downstream…..
..they are Morales, Luis Garcia, Medina, Moniak, Gowdy, Lindow, Maton, Ortiz, Miller , Muzziotti, O’Hoppe and even Marchan.
If by chance, all progress and not fall back…then I think the system could climb up the rankings.
I suppose this article seems like a harbinger of doom. It started as a joke I told my wife, “If the Phillies system is bottom five, then the promotions of Howard and Bohm will drop them out of the top thirty”. I had to explain that there are only thirty teams. I didn’t say it was a good joke.
I do not share the opinion that our prospects aren’t talented. I have watched and I like a lot of the players I’ve seen. I can’t compare our system with others because I don’t see them. Well maybe I see the young Blue Jays prospects to have an idea about them.
However, the phrase “Aside from first-round picks RHP Mick Abel and SS Bryson Stott, however, the system’s quality takes a short, sharp dive” is disheartening.
Romus, you dazzling dozen are certainly among the players I think have a chance and whose careers I look forward to following.
It is just, they can go either direction at this point….or I should say next year.
Some were drafted/signed with high expectations from scouts and given large bonuses…..others came on strong early at a yuong age and then faded but still are age appropriate to be considered a prospect.
There are just so many ‘ifs’.
As Jody Mac use to say…..’if, ifs and buts were candy and nuts when can all have a party’
Hah…screwed Jody’s saying up…..’if, ifs and buts were candy and nuts, THEN WE can all have a party’
I am very high on Morales, and I always liked Miller, so we have a few to follow and hope on.
Any news on Minors getting some time to work on there craft? Hopefully Sept/Oct before possible winter season. Probably no DR, Aust or Mex league but maybe intrasquad or ? For those who can’t loose a season of growth.
Watching today’s games looks like starters go 3+ then hand over to horrible BP.
Should be some promotions or hopefully expanded 75 roster. BP not gettin it Done
it has kind of amazed me that kids in my town are out playing baseball games, but minor league professionals cant be at least practicing and having intrasquad games at their minor league facilities.
Just because little leagues are playing doesn’t mean it’s smart (or safe). The Phillies had a break out with just a dozen and a half guys at the Complex. Those who don’t learn from history are bound to repeat it.
It’s all a beer drinking “what if” game now. How does Abel make the MLB Top-100 when he hasn’t pitched since his junior year of HS? Yeah for HS pitcher he was great but a Top-100 MLB prospect? We can hope. Martin, numerous scouts say unless he has a complete swing reconstruction he doesn’t see AA for the Phillies. So Jim this year I would hold off on your Top-30. No minor league season makes it impossible to rate prospects who we haven’t been able to evaluate in almost a year.
On the bright side, the system can’t fall much further after Bohm and Howard graduate. There’s definitely a group of talented/interesting players who could have their stock go either way once games resume, it’s just that every org probably has some guys like that. I’d add Rojas to Romus’ list above.
As I gaze into my crystal ball 3-5 years down the road, I see Alec Bohm (LF) and Johan Rojas (CF) along side Bryce Harper in the big league OF. At this point I can only dream on Rojas’ being a catalyst of the Phillies lineup. With the state of the system right now, dreaming can be quite an elixir.
(I reserve the right to keep pushing for Mickey Moniak to be a contributing role player in the trending hybrid major league roster. Rafael Marchan strikes me as another player who will come in handy as a 3rd C/utilityman, proficient bat skills if little or no pop.)
Morales still seems so far away after having been in the system since he was 16(?) My interest is in the 2 lefties, Erik Miller (power arm) and Ethan Lindow (pitchability).
Is Miller really a power arm? The more recent things I’ve read describe him as a low-90s guy and potential #4 starter. He was a power arm when they drafted him; not sure what they did. Probably the byproduct of trying to get him to throw strikes.
He hits 97mph.. At 6’5 240 there is 100 mph in that frame…
Top prospects on this list reflect Velocity but inability to throw strikes in high level where emphasis should be pitch to contact, and make the pitchers pitch, not the FB that misses the strike zone extending the innings.
Eflin getting squeezed by Umpire. But routine Ground ball past pulled in Bohm, Giradi playing “protect lead” baseball .
Bohm looking good at the plate, HR and single.
Note:
11 pitchers this season TJ. Did anyone not see Short ST could cause career of some pitchers.
Maybe we don’t need to bring pitchers up to cost them careers