Open Discussion: Week of October 21st

Maybe the Phillies announce their new manager on the off day before the World Series starts.  Supposedly, they are down to Joe Girardi, Buck Showalter, and Dusty Baker.  They also may announce a new Amateur Scouting Director as they have been linked with the Yankees’ national crosschecker, Brian Barber.  In other news …

MLB seems intent on reducing, or at least maintaining, its minor league costs.  A proposal to MiLB could eliminate up to 42 affiliated teams, move the Rule 4 Amateur Draft to a later date, reduce the number of rounds in the draft, and restructure some existing affiliated leagues.

Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper posted an article describing MLB’s preliminary offer to MiLB.  The current Professional Baseball Agreement (PBA) is set to expire after the 2020 season.  Among the many things in the article, the MLB offer includes –

  • a reduction from 160 minor league teams to 120 teams in 2021
  • elimination of the 4 non-complex, Rookie level and short season classifications
  • redesign of the remaining leagues geographically
  • movement of teams up or down classes
  • draft held after the College World Series (sometime in July?)
  • draft reduced to 20-25 rounds
  • an international draft
  • MLB teams limited to 5 minor league affiliates (AAA, AA, A+, A, and one GCL/AZL)
  • reduction in MiLB players to 150-200 (the Phillies currently have over 300)
  • DSL not affected
  • a 50% raise for MiLB players

The article covers much, much more.

To fans of the Phillies’ affiliates, the most drastic loss would be the end of MLB’s affiliation with the NY-Penn League (Williamsport).  The proposal suggests increasing the International League to 20 teams (Lehigh Valley).  It would seem likely that there would also be some restructuring of the current uneven, 3 division format.  The proposal also suggests shrinking the South Atlantic League and creating a Mid-Atlantic League which should benefit Lakewood with shorter travel.  The proposal would also limit the Phillies to one complex team, one of their Gulf Coast League participants.  So far, there is no apparent impact on Reading and Clearwater.

I currently have over 390 players in the Phillies’ organization.  The major league 40-man roster, impending free agents, option decisions, non-tenders, DSL players, and guys on futures contracts will likely lower that total to about 220.  The current CBA sets the player limits for Active and Reserve Lists in the minors, and currently allows for about 175 payers (14 of which might also be on the 40-man roster).

Of course, maybe nothing radical is implemented.  This could just be MLB’s first salvo as negotiations begin.  Read the article.  Draw your own conclusions.  But, it seems to me that that money is the driving force behind MLB’s proposal.

Our Scottsdale Scorpions have a 12-13 record and are on the verge of elimination with 4 games remaining.  Most of our guys are performing well.  Among position players, Alec Bohm is slashing .348/.378/.522/.900 in 18 games and 69 at bats. He has scored 5 runs, has 9 RBI, hit 6 doubles and 2 HR.  Josh Stephen is slashing .241/.313/.310/.623 in 9 and 29 at bats. He has scored 4 runs, has 2 RBI, and a triple.  Nick Maton is slashing .333/.385/.667/1.051 in 3 games and 12 at bats. He injured his hand and returned to Clearwater.  He was replaced by Jose Gomez.  Maton has scored 1 run, has 2 RBI, and hit a double and HR.  Mickey Moniak is slashing .159/.107/.238/.435 in 15 games and 63 at bats. He has scored 4 runs, 4 RBI, and hit 3 doubles and a triple.  Jose Gomez  is 1-18 in 5 games with 1 RBI.

Among pitchers, Connor Seabold has a 1.06 ERA and 0.59 WHIP in 4 starts. In 17.0 innings, he has walked 3 and struck out 22 batters.  JoJo Romero has a 0.96 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 7 appearances.  In 9.1 innings, he has walked 4 and struck out 4 batters.  Spencer Howard has a 2.45 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 5 starts. In 18.1 innings, he has walked 9 and struck out 23 batters.  Zach Warren has improved to a 4.91 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 4 appearances. In 3.2 innings, he has walked 2 and struck out 5 batters.  Though the league started on September 18th, Warren sat and didn’t make his first appearance until October 4th.  He has been perfect in his 3 outings after his first appearance.

Winter leagues in Mexico and the Dominican Republic began their seasons.  We have no one in the Mexican Winter League and a handful in the Dominican – Deivy Grullon and Malquin Canelo are off to slow starts (.143/.143/.143 and .167/.167/.167 respectively).

I find it particularly interesting that the Philles’ active roster includes all players on the 40-man roster except Adonis Medina.  Since the season ended, they activated OF Roman Quinn off the IL and recalled RHP JD Hammer from Lehigh Valley and SS Arquimedes Gamboa from Reading.  Hmm.

This is the Phuture Phillies Open Discussion for Phillies and other baseball topics.

Key Dates:

  • October 22, 2019 – World Series starts
  • October 26, 2019 – Arizona Fall League Championship Game
  • With the World Series scheduled to start on October 22, 2019, the expected end of the series can be no earlier than October 26th and no later than October 30th (barring postponements), so
    • October 27-31, 2019 – Trading resumes, day after the World Series ends
    • October 31 – November 4, 2019 – Deadline for teams to make qualifying offers to their eligible former players who became free agents, fifth day after WS
    • November 14-18, 2019 – Deadline for free agents to accept qualifying offers, 15th day after WS
  • November TBA – PBA negotiations between MLB and MiLB
  • November 2-17, 2019 – Premier 12 opener, 2020 Olympics Qualifier
  • November 2, 2019 – Group A: USA v. Netherlands
  • November 11-14, 2019 – GM Meetings in Scottsdale
  • November 15, 2019 – Opener for Liga de Beisbol Profesional Roberto Clemente
  • November 19-21, 2019 – Owners’ Meetings in Arlington
  • November 20, 2019 – Rosters set for Rule 5 Draft
  • November 21, 2019 – Opener for the Australian Baseball League
  • Nov. TBA – MLBPA executive board meeting (11/26-29 in Irving, TX last year)
  • December 2, 2019 – Last day for teams to offer 2020 contracts to unsigned players on their 40-man rosters
  • December 9-12, 2019 – Winter Meetings in San Diego
  • December 13, 2019 – Rule 5 Draft
  • January TBA – Rookie Career Development Program (1/9-11 in Miami last year)
  • January 10, 2020  – Salary arbitration figures exchanged
  • February 3-21, 2020 – Salary arbitration hearings, Phoenix
  • February 11, 2020 – Voluntary reporting date for pitchers, catchers and injured players
  • February 16, 2020 – Voluntary reporting date for other players
  • February 21, 2020 –  Mandatory reporting date
  • February 22, 2020 – First spring training game at Tigers
  • February 23, 2020 – First spring training home game v. Pirates
  • March 2020 – Americas Qualifier in Arizona (2020 Olympics qualifier)
  • March 23, 2020 – Final spring training home game v. Rays
  • March 26, 2020 – Phillies’ opening day at Miami, active roster reduced to 26 players
  • March/April 2020 – At-Large Qualifier in Taiwan (2020 Olympics qualifier)
  • April 2, 2020 – Phillies’ home opener v. Milwaukee
  • June TBA – Amateur draft
  • June 15, 2020 – International amateur signing period closes
  • July 2, 2020 – International amateur signing period opens
  • July 10, 2020 – Deadline for drafted players to sign, except for players who have exhausted college eligibility
  • July 14,2020  – All-Star Game at Los Angeles
  • July 31, 2020 – Last day during the season to trade a player
  • August 31, 2020 – Last day to be contracted to an organization and be eligible for postseason roster
  • September 1, 2020 — Active rosters expand to 28 players

The rosters and lists are up to date as of October 6th … 395 players in the org

Transactions (newest transactions are in bold print)
These transactions signal the beginning of the 2020 off season.  The 2019 transactions have been archived and can be accessed off the Transactions drop down menu.
10/09/2019 – Clearwater activated RHP Waylon Richardson from the 7-day IL
10/08/2019 – Clearwater activated C Willie Estrada from the 7-day IL
10/08/2019 – Clearwater activated RHP Tyler Hallead from the 7-day IL
10/08/2019 – Clearwater activated LHP Ethan Evanko from the 7-day IL
10/08/2019 – Clearwater activated C Gabriel Ojeda from the 7-day IL
10/08/2019 – Lakewood activated RHP Andrew Schultz from the 7-day IL
10/08/2019 – Lakewood activated RHP Dominic Pipkin from the 7-day IL
10/08/2019 – Lakewood activated RHP Ben Brown from the 7-day IL
10/08/2019 – Lakewood activated RHP Tyler McKay from the 7-day IL
10/08/2019 – Lakewood activated RHP Jonas De La Cruz from the 7-day IL
10/08/2019 – RHP Bailey Cummings assigned to Williamsport from GCL East
10/08/2019 – DSL White placed RHP Roger Parraga on the restricted list
10/03/2019 – GCL East activated RHP Bailey Cummings from the 60-day IL
10/03/2019 – GCL East activated RHP Yoan Antonac from the 60-day IL
10/03/2019 – GCL East activated RHP Brian Auerbach from the 60-day IL
10/03/2019 – GCL West activated RHP Eudiver Avendano from the 60-day IL
10/03/2019 – GCL West activated RHP Lizardo Herrera from the 60-day IL
10/03/2019 – GCL West activated RHP Sandro Rosario from the 60-day IL
10/03/2019 – DSL Red activated RHP Jose Perez from the 60-day IL
10/03/2019 – DSL Red activated LHP Daivin Perez from the 60-day IL
10/03/2019 – DSL Red activated RHP Joan Hernandez from the 60-day IL
10/03/2019 – DSL Red activated RHP Jeison Blanco from the 60-day IL
10/03/2019 – DSL White activated LHP Yefferson Mercedes from the 60-day IL
10/03/2019 – DSL White activated C Javier Vina from the 60-day IL
10/03/2019 – DSL White activated RHP Santy Prada from the 60-day IL
10/03/2019 – DSL White activated RHP Elias Liriano from the 60-day IL
10/03/2019 – Lehigh Valley activated LHP Brandon Leibrandt from the 60-day IL
10/03/2019 – Clearwater activated C Edgar Cabral from the 7-day IL
10/03/2019 – Clearwater activated C Rodolfo Duran from the 7-day injured IL
10/03/2019 – Clearwater activated LHP Kyle Young from the 7-day injured IL
10/03/2019 – Clearwater activated C Colby Fitch from the 7-day injured IL
10/03/2019 – Clearwater activated LHP Nick Fanti from the 7-day injured IL
10/02/2019 – Lehigh Valley activated OF Jan Hernandez from the 7-day IL
10/02/2019 – Lehigh Valley activated 3B Mitch Walding from the 7-day IL
10/02/2019 – Lehigh Valley activated RHP Alexis Rivero from the 7-day IL
10/02/2019 – Reading activated RHP Tyler Viza from the 7-day IL
10/02/2019 – Reading activated OF Grenny Cumana from the 7-day IL
10/02/2019 – Reading activated RHP Luke Leftwich from the 7-day IL
10/02/2019 – Reading activated RF Danny Mayer from the 7-day IL
10/02/2019 – Reading activated RHP Luis Carrasco from the 7-day IL
10/02/2019 – Reading activated RF Jose Pujols from the 7-day IL
10/02/2019 – Reading activated RHP Mauricio Llovera from the 7-day IL
10/02/2019 – Reading activated LHP Bailey Falter from the 7-day IL
10/02/2019 – Reading activated RHP Trevor Bettencourt from the 7-day IL
10/02/2019 – Reading activated C Nerluis Martinez from the 7-day IL
9/30/2019 – Phillies activated CF Roman Quinn from the 10-day IL
9/30/2019 – Phillies recalled SS Arquimedes Gamboa from Reading
9/30/2019 – Phillies recalled RHP JD Hammer from Lehigh Valley
9/30/2019 – RHP Dan Straily elected free agency
9/30/2019 – C Rob Brantly elected free agency
9/30/2019 – RHP Fernando Salas elected free agency

344 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of October 21st

  1. I saw in last week’s Open Discussion Thread some posters used the David Price and Max Scherzer contracts as bench marks for Gerrit Cole’s upcoming deal, and Joel Sherman is predicting an 8 year/250 million dollar payday ahead for the Astros ‘ace’. Here’s my take:
    I could be 100% wrong … but … I just don’t see it. Those contracts were signed four and five years ago. Since then, clubs have become much more risk averse when it comes to throwing mucho denaro at pitchers. Too many teams have been burned. Injuries and quick regressions scare clubs. For every Max Scherzer, there are three or four David Prices or Johnny Cuetos or Yu Darvishes or Wei-Yin Chens.
    Look what happened last winter with Patrick Corbin. It can reasonablly be argued Corbin is more likely to age better the Gerrit Cole because of the stress Cole appears to put on his elbow and shoulder. The NYY’s (who make more money than any franchise in MLB) and the Phillies (who were looking to [and eventually did] spend stooopid money) refused to go to six years on Corbin (29 YO at the time). Just one team (Washington) would.
    At the same time … the reigning Cy Young award winner and two of the top young arms in baseball signed LTC’s. Jacob deGrom (30 YO) agreed to a 5 year/137.5 million (27.5 million AAV)contract. Aaron Nola and Luis Severino also depressed the market for arms when they settled for early deals for 11 and 10 million dollar AAV’s respectfully.
    You could argue it only takes one team to go bonkers, but in reality it takes two to engage in a bidding war to drive up a player’s price. If the Phillies and Yankees remain risk averse to throwing big money over many years at pitchers, it’s hard for me to see Gerrit Cole getting a 7 year deal @ 30 or 31 million per season. For me … I believe Cole is more likely to get Corbin’s years (six) at deGrom’s AAV (27.5 million) + a little bit more because he’s made it to the open market. That’s how I come up with 180 million over six years.
    In the end, Scott Boras will likely author something more convoluted. A deal with opt ins, opt outs, and maybe a vesting option or two that will allow him to claim a record breaking deal. However, I feel like, in terms of guaranteed money, 180 million over six years sounds about right. Again … that’s just the way I see it.

    1. Hinkie….you make very saleable points, and I think it may be correct.
      The writers/beat guys every year seem to go overboard on contract predictions for the impact free agents. And as it seems to happen, the contracts , especially the AAV, fall short of their predictions.

      If it is Cole that Middleton has his heart set on bidding for, then I think the Harper/Boras negotiations, and the goodwill established between the two parties, will work in his favor

      I however, see Middleton leaning on lengthier contracts vs the higher AAVs, to seal the deal…..so I see a 7 or 8th year option offering at the similar AAV you posted above.

      Just my guess.

    2. Corbin’s WAR was 5.9 heading into FA. Cole’s was 7.4 this year. Also Cole has proven to be a star in the post season. They are not really comparable players. Cole is materially better than Corbin. Also deGrom wasn’t a FA. So his contract shouldn’t be a comp.

      I agree with Sherman’s take that the argument can be made that Cole is be the best FA pitcher ever. Whether he will age well or not is anyone’s guess. But a lot of deep pocket teams need a guy like Cole at the top of their rotation.

      1. Well said, we don’t know how he’ll age but right now, he’s as good a pitcher who has ever been available as a FA. He’ll go for real money especially after what he’s done this postseason. He sure would look good here but be careful what you wish for because he could easily slide backwards next year after the heavy load this year.

        1. All things considered (and I’m sure I’ll get blowback on this), including the likelihood that the Phillies DON’T sign Cole for whatever reason, I continue to believe the smart play is to sign 2 SP’s – pairing either LHP Bumgarner and RHP Odorizzi or RHP Wheeler and LHP Wood (or Hamels if his price is home-discounted enough).

          That gives us a rotation of:
          1 Nola
          2 Bumgarner or Wheeler
          3 Howard* (midseason)
          4 Odorizzi or Wood
          5 Eflin
          *IMO Jake Arrieta isn’t likely to last a full season. However he figures in the mix, the impact of his remaining tenure (as a .500 pitcher at best, and a less than ideal clubhouse presence) should be marginal.

          Then, even if it means breaking the luxury tax threshold, Middleton may be compelled to pursue Rendon. As I’ve insisted in previous comments, I am convinced that the Phillies don’t see Alec Bohm as the future at 3b. And if so, acquiring the best available 3b in the game makes more than enough sense. As for Bohm and Hoskins….these things have a way of sorting themselves out. I haven’t read or heard reason why this should not be a viable direction to take this winter – THE most important in quite a long time, for several reasons, not the least of which is MacKlentak’s job security.

    3. Max Sherzer was 30 when he entered FA, and he already accumulated 23.9 WAR. He got 7 years, $210M.

      Gerrit Cole will be 29 when he enters FA, and he accumulated 23.4 WAR. Cole is going to get his $200M+.

      1. … and you both (v1 and Guru) ignore deGrom’s 9.6 WAR last season when he won the Cy Young award and signed his 5 year/137.5 million dollar deal. The argument that deGrom’s contract isn’t a comp because he wasn’t a FA is not correct. That contract will have a direct impact on what owners/GM’s will negotiate off of. Yes, Cole (as I mentioned in my original post) will get a bump because he has reached the open market, but I don’t think it’s going to be a 40 or 50 (or more) million dollar bump. One of the reasons (aside from injury risk) deGrom signed that deal a year early was because he and his agent were aware of the changing market for arms. Again … those Scherzer and Price contracts were done four and five years ago. I’m not going to bet my house on this (or ban myself for six months), but I feel everyone is exaggerating Cole’s upcoming contract.

        Another thing … when John Middleton was flying all over the country meeting with people to get their takes on Gabe Kapler (and MacKlentak?), I believe one of the folks he met with was Scott Boras. Boras represents many Phillies (Harper/Hoskins/Arrieta/Velasquez/others) and would like to represent a few more Cole/Rendon/Moustakis). I believe Boras and Middleton have a feel for what the other is looking for and willing to spend.

          1. Me too – I’m not seeing that Cole will get anything less than $200 m, but if he does that would be great. And by the way, this postseason has done nothing but affirm the value of a true ace – so the pressures are not all in the direction toward Cole getting a lower salary.

        1. Jacob deGrom still had 1 more year of control left. Also, he would have entered FA at age 32. Cole is entering FA at 28. You really cannot compare deGrom’s contract.

          1. deGrom would have entered free agency this winter at age 31.
            Cole is 29 YO. That’s a difference of two years, not four.
            BTW … Stephen Strasburg was 28 YO when he got seven guaranteed years at a 25 million AAV.

            1. Jacob deGrom was NOT a FA until after the 2020 season. So he would be 32 not 31. So that’s a difference of 3 years and likely $75M dollars at least.

  2. Planning our yearly spring training trip. Any idea when minor leaguers report this year since spring training starts earlier than usual. We enjoy AAA/AA/A games at the complex instead of following the MLB squad on the road.

    1. Nothing officially released yet. Historically, a lot of minor league players will have reported early and will continue work outs at the Complex when the Phillies move into Spectrum Field. The minor league report dates and game dates are usually within a week of the major leaguers. When their games start, there will always be 2 or 3 games at the Complex, and 2 on the road. From February 13th, there will always be something at the Complex every weekday and most weekends until September. Last season, Alec Bohm was the first player to report to the Complex in the first week of January. When I have confirmed dates, I’ll post them.

  3. About the imminent hiring of Brian Barber to replace Johnny Almaraz as Phillies Director Of Amateur Scouting … without knowing all the facts, it leaves me with questions. It’s been reported Barber “pounded the table” for Aaron Judge in the 2013 draft. Did Barber also “pound the table” for Eric Jagielo and Ian Clarkin? They were also picked in the first round of that draft by the Yankeees (Jagielo went 6 picks in front of Judge). BTW … it’s always easier to draft a high risk-high reward guy with a top pick when you have multiple high draft selections. The Phillies never have multiple high draft picks. I posted a few weeks ago the Phillies have had the fewest top three round picks in MLB over the last five years.
    On the other hand … did Barber (as a national crosschecker) endorse other future MLB starters/stars who the Yankees decided not to draft? I don’t know. What I do know is this:
    Since the Aaron Judge draft (2013), the Yankees have picked just two players who have accumulated any WAR as a MLB player (Jordan Montgomery 3.4 WAR and Nick Solak 0.5 WAR). During that same time, the Phillies have drafted Aaron Nola 20.3 WAR, Rhys Hoskins 3.9 WAR, Austin Davis 0.1 WAR, Scott Kingery 1.6 WAR, , and Adam Haseley 1.7 WAR (Cole Irvin has a negative WAR)
    In addition, none of the Yankees’ players picked after the Judge draft (2013) are top 100 prospects. The Phillies have three draftees in the top 100 (Bohm, Howard, and Stott).
    The other thing I do know is this:
    There is another Brian available that didn’t (reportedly) make the Phillies final list. Brian Bridges was not only a former scout and crosschecker for the Braves, he also served as the Braves’ Scouting Director for 4 years. That means he was directly responsible for actually drafting Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, Joey Wentz, Kyle Wright, Ian Anderson, Austin Riley, and Drew Waters. And … as a scout, Bridges was responsible for finding/scouting/signing Jason Heyward, Craig Kimbrel, Mike Minor, and Alex Wood. That’s a very good list of players.

    1. I am not a expert in scouting, Reading Hinkie blog, makes me wonder how you take a guy who has had these bad drafts, over the braves guy. Now maybe the guy for the braves didn’t want the job, But the guy we got doesn’t seem like the answer

    2. So I was the guy who said that I read that he “pounded the table for Judge.”

      I was trying to be positive…you know me…Mr Sunshine.

      Your points about the weak Yankee farm system was not lost on me before I made that comment. Just look at the Yankee’s playoff lineup…very few came up through the system.

      I agree that there are far better systems to poach – Braves, Houston, Dodgers…And I love how Tampa Bay runs an organization.

    3. Lol! That was my point in last weeks thread.” Pounding the table” means nothing as I said many scouts pound the table for many players in every draft. The man pulling the names off the board is the one who matters the most and until you are in the chair who really knows? Let’s hope he is someone who will make more right decisions than wrong ones.

        1. Romus you are such a pessimists, I Know what happen, Medina was in the bathroom when they made out the 40 man roster, just a error on the phillies

      1. 8mark……..exactly, you need to be held accountable! 🙂
        Seriously, whatever is happening, he probably has little to no trade/chip current value at this point until somethin comes out.
        I am keeping my fingers crossed it is something to due to immigration issues on his papers or work visa, and not all those other things that seem to dog players in the sports world over the last decade or two.

        1. Whatever it is, Romus, his developmental regression must have something to do with it. If he was mowing down hitters, he’d probably have been up by now.

  4. Regarding Gerrit Cole, I tend to fall somewhere between Hinkie and Joel Sherman…while I think the limited market may ultimately affect his price, the few teams (NYY, PHL, LAA) who will be intensely bidding on him may bump it well above Hinkie’s estimate. Saw someone suggest San Diego potentially being in on him but I can’t see them fishing in the deeper waters. I’ll stick with him breaking David Price’s contract by a few miles. Say 6/$210M ($35M AAV) with vesting 7th and 8th year options. Ot with Boras in the picture, look for a team “opt-in” after year 3 (to add 2 years) and an opt out after year 4.

      1. 8mark….the only LTC so far with a team opt is the Rox with Arenado……every other LTC with that clause is a players’ choice.
        Arenado actually dropped Boras for another agent
        Boras probably will not go with that option in Cole’s case.

  5. Sounds like Joe Estrada is getting lots of love from Theo and the Cubs to beat out inhouse candidate David Ross.

    Looks like the Mets are doing everything they can to piss off their fan base by not just giving Joe Girardi what he wants. Not a good look when you interview more candidates than you can keep track of. But that’s okay, so long as Johnny Cigars gets his man.

  6. Hinkie, I think that the Yankees may be revisiting their approach to Stating Pitching and be in it on Cole. They did well this year, but lost, again,. to the Astros, and need SP. They didn’t make it to the WS, and for the Yankees, that is the first time in a decade. I would not be surprised if they go hard for Cole. That makes it us, them and the Angels, at least. I know all the risks. The Plan B isn’t nearly as good. But, we have to see what happens. I do know that if it is Mac/Klentak’s call, we are not even in on Cole. It will take Middleton. On the Managerial front, I hope it is Girardi. Wouldn’t a Girardi/Calloway combo be a great start to the off season?

    1. Not sure how the Yankees can navigate the Cole demands….Ellsbury and Stanton are still on their books for large amounts…..and then there is the case of Aaron Judge as he enters into his age 28 season….three arb years left, but they would look foolish not trying to do an extension and offering him a large 6/7 year LTC.
      In the next year or two for sure they have to step up to the table with him.
      Judge getting paid under $700K is robbery on their part
      So the Yankees could be limited to what they can offer to Cole.

  7. Baseball America is doing a recap on the 2019 draft and they have a piece up today on the Phillies. Closest to the majors is Stott and Miller. Nothing to ground breaking in the piece other than they like the Schultz kid (6th rd.) for his triple-digit FB and if he can control it with a reliable secondary pitch he could also be a quick mover,,

  8. David Kaplan of ESPN1000 tweets that the Phillies manager job is Joe Girardi’s to lose. In town today. Let’s hope he doesn’t leave without a deal in place.

      1. Lol. Sorry. Yes just like Kenny Brett, Jeremy Giambi, Mike Maddox, Vince DiMaggio, Frank Torre, Todd Worrell, Juan Bell, Mark Leiter and Rick Surhoff. We always get the other brother.

    1. Max Sherzer was a FA at the end of the 2014 season. In 2014, the Phillies went 73-69 and in last place in the East. The Phillies were entering full blown rebuild mode. They were not going to spend money on Max Sherzer.

    2. Because the Phillies were early in their rebuild and because they have concerns about signing pitchers to long-term contracts. The Nationals made a wise move but also lucked out, especially on Scherzer’s health and sustained velocity. This has turned out to be one of the top 10, and probably top 5, FA contracts of all time, trailing only contracts like those for Barry Bonds and Randy Johnson (4 straight CY awards on a four year contract – wow!).

  9. A large percentage of the best SPs in the League, and someone raised this last week, Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, Verlander, Cole and Greinke, are in this WS. You can add Sanchez also. Only Strasburg was drafted by the team he is Pitching for. Trades and FA got them. First, I don’t know who would fit in with those guys that is available this off season in a trade. I don’t consider Boyd or Robbie Ray to be in that category. Second, we don’t have the farm capital to get one. Maybe, if Bohm proves he can only play1B, we can trade him. I would hate that to be the case. We need him to make it as a 3B. Regardless of what Cole costs, we have to be in on him..

  10. Prospect List. https://www.prospects1500.com/overall-top-172-prospects-october-2019/

    Here is how it was compiled:
    “16 of our staff submitted a list of top 100 prospects with bias towards fantasy baseball contributions. The lists were combined to generate an aggregated list of prospects (in this case, 172 individual players).”

    3 Phillies on the list:
    – Bohm #24
    – Howard #55
    – Stott #101

    I find it depressing that after all of those top draft picks, that is all that we have.

    for what its worth, the Yankees have 5 players on this list, but 4 of the 5 were International signing. So the Yankees have only 1 drafted player in the top 172 prospects in baseball according to the 16 scouts who write for this site. To Hinkie’s point, the Yankees are not known for drafting well.

      1. Especially pitchers…Cashman cannot build an adequate staff from what he drafts.
        With Hamels, Myers, Floyd, Nola, even Adam Eaton Phillies have done better than the Yankees…..granted Watson, Gueller Savory, Biddle and Drabek never quite made it…but what have the Yankees ever drafted in the form of pitchers that have progressed?
        Ian Kennedy, Joba and Phil Hughes are the only ones I the first round I can recall over the last 25 years.
        I guess Gerrit Cole can count…but they did not sign or develop him..

  11. I have not forgotten Romus’ guy, Kyle Freeland, and I would take a shot at him. I don’t think he costs a ton in prospects. v1, they did very well, the Yankees that is, in the International market. We have not, at all. Not that it reflects on the Barber reported signing. I have no idea if that is a good one or not. I do know that we have not done a good enough job in acquiring young talent, either by drafting it or Internationally. I don’t believe that the list you just shared would be significantly different regardless of who was polled. I think Howard should be a bit higher, but we can’t really quarrel with the results. We have not done a good enough job, period

    1. matt13…until Adonis went MIA….I would have him included in a package for Freeland ….now beginning to look like like he could be another surplus asset in purgatory, along with Odubel.

  12. Jon Heyman

    @JonHeyman
    The Philly front office likes Showalter from Baltimore dats. But belief is owner John Middleton — who made the Kapler call — is leaning toward Joe Girardi. Girardi likely has good feel he’s getting something since he left team USA. @thekapman suggested Phils job is Joe’s to lose.

    165
    12:02 PM – Oct 21, 2019
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    1. “he Philly front office likes Showalter from Baltimore.”

      As this saga moves forward I become more and more resentful of MacPhail and Klentak as they push to hire their old buddy. Awful stuff.

  13. Jon Heyman (via tweet minutes ago) hears that the Mets are in no hurry to hire their next skipper regardless of how far along the Phillies are in talks with Girardi. Which tells me they don’t want Joe bad enough. And of course, while MacKlentak like Buck from their Baltimore days, Middleton is on Girardi like white on rice.

    1. ….which has me wondering….how long will Klentak (in particular) defer to the Boss in all major hires? Yes, he’s under contract for 3 more years and I’m sure Middleton won’t cut him loose until next season at the earliest, but the kid has to feel like his knees have been cut from under him.

    2. 8mark – probably because he is too expensive. You can’t be paying Bonilla, Cespedes, and David Wright – even with insurance – and pay for an “expensive” manager.

  14. On the Phillies front office, this is really a clown show. Middleton gets up there and talks about his CEO experience and how things are run. Many of you have already said this and I totally agree, if you are a good CEO, you hire good people and you empower them to make the right decisions. He should not be making decisions layers down in the organization on a topic he is not the expert at when he could be hiring people to make those decisions. Even worse, you continue to pay people you don’t trust to make important decisions? What CEO manual is that in that I missed? Really just unbelievable.

    Having said that, I’m obviously happy he made the call on Kapler to be fired and if he is pushing for Girardi, I think that’s better than Buck, for the reasons mentioned above. But why are dumb and dumber still employed at that point?

    1. No, it’s smart – by getting some diversity of thought he’s going to be able to better hear different voices of reason and figure out who is right. Currently, the only voices he hears are those created in the Orioles echo-chamber. I am very happy with them bringing in Girardi but I’d be more happy with them restructuring the entire front office.

  15. On the starting pitching, here is what the Phils are basically working with.
    1. TBD
    2. Aaron Nola (a very good option as a #2)
    3. TBD
    4. Arietta (not bad as a #4 if healthy, but a big question mark)
    5. TBD

    For Velasquez, Pivetta, and Eflin, I would bring all 3 of them back and have them compete for the #5 job in spring training, along with others, and let the best man win. As for the other 2, maybe they end up in the bullpen in late inning roles or maybe one ends up as a long reliever, or maybe one gets sent to AAA or released, but the point here is that you can’t count on any of them for anything at this point, but I wouldn’t give up on them.

    For Howard, I’d love to slot him in as the #3 starter, but he is a prospect and I think you have to construct your roster as if he’s spending the year at AAA. If he deserves a call up and the opportunity presents itself, great. But if not, the team needs to be prepared without him.

    For Medina, same as Howard, but in this case he is much further off.

    For Eickhoff, Delossantos, Romero, and Suarez, you can’t count on any of them to play a role in the rotation this year. If any of them do, it’s gravy. Having said that, I would consider giving Suarez innings in spring training as a starter and letting him compete for the #5 spot with the likely outcome being a role in the bullpen.

    So having said all of that, what do the Phils need? A #1, a #3, and 1-2 more lottery tickets to compete for the #5 spot.

    For the #1 spot, I’m not sure how the Phils do this. I don’t think giving Cole the money he is going to demand is the best bet so while I’d pursue him, I wouldn’t go all in with a blank check. I wouldn’t touch Strasburg at the money he is going to command at his age. It’s risky, but the Phils may need to role with Nola as the #1 until midseason and pursue depth after him. The Phils have to hope their farm system rebounds in the first half and they can afford to trade some good prospects and players to acquire a true TOR, or that Spencer Howard turns into something close to that very quickly.

    For the #3 spot, I wouldn’t consider Vargas or Smyly. I think there are a number of arms available, i.e. Bumgarner, etc that would fit the bill here.

    Lastly, please for once, go sign some high risk high reward lottery tickets to take a chance on. If you just hit on one of them, it would be a huge help.

    1. For the right price I like the idea of holding onto Drew Smyly – I think there’s some value there. And for what it’s worth, they should find some way to sign Corey Dickerson. This dude just hits and hits and hits. If they don’t sign him to a reasonable deal, they’ll regret it even if it would mean McCutcheon would have to play more centerfield.

        1. The Phillies currently have $132,526,282 payroll allotted toward 2020 AAV. This includes $15M in estimated player benefits, $2.25M for the 14 minor league players on the 40-man roster, $109,301,282 for 7 players (Harper, Arrieta, McCutchen, Segura, Bruce, Nola, and Kingery), $17.6M for players who likely won’t suit up in red pin stripes (Robertson $11.5M and Herrera $6.1M), and an $11.625 credit for Bruce (paid by Seattle).

          That leaves them $75,473,718 to acquire 19 players to fill out the 26-man roster.

          Not picking up the options on Vargas, Neshek, and Hughes will cost another $3M in buyouts. I assume that would lower the remaining under “cap” to $72,473,718.

          Seems like a lot. Most of the 19 spots can be filled from among the 15 arbitration eligible and 16 pre-arb guys. Who and how many will determine how much is available for how many roster spots. I think that conservatively the Phillies have below $40M available for free agency.

            1. I think we say goodbye to as much expendable money as possible, ie Cesar and Franco, in order to make room for necessary upgrades. And if Middleton is running the show AND intent on chasing the trophy, I can’t see how they don’t break the luxury tax threshold.

  16. Buddy…why are dumb and dumber still employed? Very funny… I haven’t been able to figure that one out, either, beats the “schtick” out of me.

  17. Interesting trade targets for Phils:

    1. Sonny Gray. 29 years old. Great contract $8m per through 023. Coming off his best season of 4.4 WAR. On Reds, which are in a rebuild.

    2. Mike Minor. 31 yo. 1 year left on contract. coming off his best season of 4.2 WAR. Texas also on a rebuild

    3. Matthew Boyd. 28 years old. Under control until 2023. again coming off best season of 3.3 WAR. Detroit needs a ton of help.

    Any combination of 2 of those guys or 1 of them plus Wheeler or Bumgarner works for me. Let’s say that Howard and Bohm are off the table. Would you give up Stott + 2 other prospects of their choosing for any of the above Pitchers?

    1. Tigers need hitters…they have plenty of high tier RHP arms coming down the road….maybe they would take Maikel and Cesar…and maybe even Odubel…..all proven MLB players under favorable contract conditions…add in a LHP prospect , ie JoJo or Cole Irwin, and maybe Boyd can be had.

        1. I threw these trade possibilities out there a few weeks ago.
          I am not endorsing (or opposing) any of these deals. I’m just asking “Would you do” any of (and I’m assuming there is nothing going on with Adonis Medina):

          A) (4 years of) Nick Pivetta for (2 years of) Mychal Givens and (4 years of) Tanner Scott
          B) (4 years of) Nick Pivetta for (1 year of) Ken Giles
          C) (3 years of) Zach Eflin and Johan Rojas for (1 year of) Mike Minor
          D) Adam Haseley, Bryson Stott, and Adonis Medina for (3 years of) Matthew Boyd
          E) Adonis Medina, Francisco Morales, Erik Miller, and Luis Garcia for (2 years of) Robbie Ray and (2 years of) Archie Bradley
          F) Adonis Medina for (2 years of) Jose Urena
          G) (4 years of) Rhys Hoskins for (4 years of) Jose Alvarado, Brett Honeywell and Shane Baz

          1. I like the Minor proposal, with hopes he can be extended for 2-3 years. Rojas may be a gem. I only doubt Texas would give up Minor until the deadline if they are clearly out of contention.

      1. Romus, my man, you know that no one is taking Maikel or Cesar for multiple reasons.

        It is likely that all three of those players are DFA’d this offseason.

        You are not getting those pitchers for bottom of roster players. Got to give up something of value.

        1. Yeah…..I would hope Avila would budge.
          Of course 8mark’s suggestion would probably work…trading Rhys….he and say Vinny or Pivetta probably would get Boyd….and Bohm goes to first base for good.

    2. I’m not convinced Sonny Gray or Mike Minor are available. I think Texas wants to look competitive as the open their new ballpark. The Reds want to take a step forward and become more competitive as well.

      I would NOT trade anyone of value for Matthew Boyd. He’s never been good at suppressing home runs and a move to CBP from Comerica Park isn’t going to help that number at all (although not facing a DH will). I would give up guys in the vein of Luis Garcia, Nick Pivetta, Mickey Moniac, Francisco Morales, etc but not a guy like Stott who could contribute in 2021.

      That said if Minor is available i would drive Stott to Texas myself.

      1. I’d like to see the Phillies take 5 gambles (at least)

        1- I love GCole, but believe he’s not coming here, so I go Wheeler here. Strasburg is interesting as well, but I go wheeler here due to $$$. Stats are on par with Bumgarner,less wear.

        2- Trust in Howard, get him into a SR spot by mid May at the latest.

        3- Resign Smyly.

        Nola,Wheeler, &Howard with Efflin, Arrietta, and Smyly battling it out for the 4th & 5th spot.

        4- Find a spot for Dickerson.

        Lastly, be the dark horse in the rendon talks, if reasonable, pounce and weaken the lucky NL Champs, bet that the DH is coming by 2021. If not, fire the person who made the suggestion!

    3. Trading Stott for a mid-rotation pitcher? It may take him, but what if we need him to play 3rd base in the future?

      That’s the reality with trades, it takes something to get…

      1. Agree about Stott. He’s a virtual untouchable, just a rung below Howard and Bohm. If Rendon is not in the Phillies picture, Stott may be the future 3b. And I love that he’s a lefty bat.

    4. I like Sonny Gray. He always had the talent but for some reason or another, he couldn’t put it all together. I would give up Stott and 2 others for him.

  18. interesting quote:
    “Interestingly, Middleton, per Heyman, was “polling players” on the prospects of Showalter managing the team late last week. One of those players was certainly Bryce Harper, who has 12 years left on a free-agent contract he signed in March. Jamie Apody of 6 ABC says that she’s been told by “a source close to Showalter that he HATES Bryce Harper.” It’s unclear what connection Showalter has to Harper – other than the Orioles playing the Washington Nationals – that would make him feel so strongly about the six-time All-Star. But, if true, a distaste for the most important player in the organization would seem to greatly diminish Showalter’s attractiveness as a candidate.”

    https://www.philliesnation.com/2019/10/john-middleton-reportedly-leaning-towards-joe-girardi/

    1. Four years ago Nats’ Paps drilled Manny Machado after a HR….and Bryce said something to the effect….probably tomorrow I will get drilled by order of their manager Buck Showalter…that may have ticked off Buck…but actually it was directed at Paps… and the following series they eventually had it out in the dugout with that choking match between Harper and Paps..
      That may have been some of the resentment….who knows.

    2. If this is the case, even partially true,
      It would be a total waste of time to hire Buck as the manager. If he hated him before, it would only get worse imho, given the unique power Harper holds in the clubhouse with 12 years left on his contract

  19. whatever the reason, if it convinces Middleton to get Girardi over Buck, I will send a thank you note to Paplebon. No issue with Buck other than I want as little influence from MacPhail as possible.

    1. 444 to 435.
      Buck wins as an O vs Joe wins as a Yankee between 2012 and 2016.
      Showalter knows what he is doing.
      And Joe has a ring as a manager.
      Only four MLB managers in history have gone to their second team and got another WS ring….LaRussa was the last with the Cardinals.
      So Joe will have to beat the odds.

      1. I think the possibility of Girardi coming here and winning a title has more to do with how the organization gets its ducks in order, beginning with retooling the scouting and development. The major league roster may have enough talent and stay healthy enough within the next 2 to 3 years to go deep into October. Winning a championship involves playing especially good ball heading into the post season, as well as facing opposition with which you match up well against. That’s not something you plan, but it’s definitely something you prepare for by building a roster that’s deep enough. Injuries happen.

    1. I’m generally a list person. It’s so American. But prospect lists have been losing me. Aside from a handful of consensus top prospects, the rest of the field is highly subjective. Certain sites or analysts fall in love with certain players. (Can you say Jose Gomez?) Stott at 200 makes me laugh. He’s barely played any pro ball. A list that long seems so overly speculative, why not pick names out of a hat? We can’t come anywhere close to a consensus on our own top 30.

      That probably sounds negative.

  20. I know nothing about Barber, except he is from the Yankees. But, wouldn’t it be smart to get someone from the Rays organization? We didn’t get Chaim Bloom, but they seem to always be the best at identifying and drafting talent. And, developing them. That is the organization I would want to get someone from to rebuild my farm system.

    1. matt13….the only issue…the Rays are a play-off team this year and a 90 win team last year, built on trades
      Snell was their drafted guy.
      The majority of almost t all their position players were obtained via trades.
      So have to see what their farm produces in the next 3/4 years.

      1. Small market teams like Tampa (they actually have virtually no fan base – Montreal isn’t a good baseball city but still eons better than either Tampa or Miami) have a small margin for error since they can’t buy themselves out of trouble.

        Big market teams like the Phillies can’t spend enough to over compensate for their poor track record of scouting and development. Getting someone skilled from TB is easier said than done. And even if one agrees to jump on board, the collective mind set of the organization has to change. That takes time.

        1. What separates those four from a team like the Phillies is that they can develop both high school players and J2 players, and draft decent college players to fill out their rosters. I believe that the Phillies don’t have the development staff in place to develop the younger players. As I pointed out, Jimmy Rollins and Cole Hamels are the last two high school players to have a tremendous impact on this franchise. Now, we are reduced to drafting college players in the first round and filling out our roster with free agents.

  21. He’s back…………from the AFL last night…Jon Mayo writes:
    “Moniak entered Monday mired in an 0-for-15 slump, but rebounded with a three-hit performance that brought him within a home run of the cycle. After not having accrued an RBI over his past eight contests, Moniak snapped that skid with a lined shot to right in the sixth that scored Alec Bohm and gave Philadelphia’s No. 8 prospect his second triple of the fall.”

    1. Listened to James Seltzer’s podcast on WIP last night. He had Bohm, Moniak and Howard on and they were all great. Lots of insights and found that Bohm is definitely focused on playing third, Moniak is the most personable and Howard is ready to pitch in the majors now.

      MM talked about learning the new hitting style and moving away from the just “try to hit it up the middle “. He also compared himself to Ellsbury and Howard watched G Cole as a model. Bohn has Arenado and before Jeter.

      I would love to have all 3 on the team.

    2. Romus, We’re visiting sister-in-law and Phoenix so I went to the 12:30 p.m. game to catch Moniak and company, along with a bunch of other people I found waiting pointlessly at the ticket booth. Turns out the game was 6:30. They had printed two schedules. The one on the website said a 12:30 game. I think the expression for this is Uggh!

      A group of young guys said it best: No wonder baseball is dying. They won’t let you into the game.

  22. I said months maybe even a year ago that I hoped Middleton had a Tom Hagen that he was talking to. Someone from outside the organization who could provide him with feedback on how his FO was doing.

    I subscribe to the logic that a good owner hires good people and then gets out of the way. A good owner also has to realize quickly their mistakes and not compound them with inaction.

    A good owner will also take care not to apply certain business logic to running a sports franchise.

    A guy no one seems to talk about who I happen to think would be a great fit as President to replace McPhail is Dan O’Dowd. Dan is plugged in and when you go back and study his tenure in CO they drafted very well. Unfortunately for them pitching in CO sux. They tried everything and very few pitchers have shown they can flourish there.

    Dan is also very candid about the mistakes he made. Not a ton of ego with that guy. I know it’s not going to happen near term but I would like to see it at some point.

    Just a totally random thought from me as we sit and watch this dumpster fire play out.

    1. Man, how I despise the old boy network way of running an operation. Baseball is fun and games but these types of office politics can and has ruined people’s lives. I’ve experienced it, though fortunately I didn’t suffer direct collateral damage. We’ve recently seen how cronyism promotes hush ups and corrupts what once may have been a noble endeavor, all because one or two people didn’t want to rock the apple cart. I’m not suggesting MacKlentak are sinister in any way – they seem to just want to be gainfully employed. But the only time it’s good to simply go with who you know is when that person knows what he’s doing. And even that only lasts so long.

      1. 8mark what exactly are you referencing?

        Cronyism exists in every walk of life and to deny it or to demonize it is to do the same to human nature. As you state it is not always sinister in nature.

        I don’t have a certain paranoia about it is what I am saying. It’s perfectly natural to me for an individual to want to surround themselves with people they are comfortable with or whom they trust.

        That said in those situations you better be able to demonstrate excellent qualifications and high levels of integrity on the appointed individual.

        If we’re talking about the push and shove of Giradi vs. Showalter ( I happen to prefer Giradi but won’t be disappointed with Buck) Middleton vs. Andy/Matt

        I think its much ado about nothing: a little revolution now and then is a healthy thing, don’t you think?

        1. DMAR, very true….especially quoting Sean Connery in the final scene of the Hunt for Red October. I don’t disagree with you. I’m referencing the darker, less honorable episodes of recent past, like the Sandusky train wreck.

  23. Now I am worried. Girardi was not signed by Phillies and is in New York today for a second interview.

    Showalter or Baker, really scared. I would go with Dusty, Wathan before these 2.

    1. We went through this rodeo with Harper in the spring, Denny. Where Girardi is today has nothing to do with anything. There won’t be any announcement until Thursday. For all we know, they may have signed and sealed the deal yesterday. MLB doesn’t allow breaking news to upstage the World Series.

      1. Personally if I was Girardi, I wouldn’t take this job in a million years. Not with This G.M and club President. Its a bad situation. The owner is over riding the G.M, The club president is a moron. The G.M Has killed us with the bad bullpen signings and his saber bull. Why take this job,

        1. rocco…..you ask, “Why take this job,”….$$$$$$$
          Actually working with Middleton vs working with Fred Wilpon may also be a difference maker.

  24. If one guy can carve it with his hands and another guy needs a CNC milling machine to carve the same piece which is more impressive?

  25. This is a great article https://theathletic.com/1311715/2019/10/22/a-decade-of-phillies-draft-shortcomings-raises-the-stakes-on-spencer-howard-and-alec-bohm-in-2020/

    Highlights:
    – “The reality is this: If the Phillies don’t hit on Howard and Bohm as productive big leaguers, the outlook is ominous”
    – “It remains staggering to consider how hamstrung the Phillies are by their draft failures from earlier in the decade.”
    – Since the 2009 draft, pitchers drafted and signed by the Phillies have generated a 25.3 WAR, according to Baseball-Reference. (Aaron Nola represents 19.6 WAR alone. Ken Giles accounts for 7.9 of the WAR total) Hitters drafted and signed by the Phillies have accounted for 7.7 WAR. The WAR calculations are for time spent in the majors — whether it be with the Phillies or another team.
    – Consider this: The Cardinals drafted Paul DeJong with the 131st overall pick — the fifth-to-last one in the fourth round of the 2015 draft. He has produced more WAR (10.6) in 382 games than the combined output of every hitter drafted by the Phillies in the last 10 years.
    – Every plan the Phillies concoct to field the best roster in 2020 involves Howard and Bohm
    – Howard, in the eyes of most rival evaluators, is no worse than a mid-rotation starter but has potential to be better than that. He is a late bloomer and about as valuable an asset as the Phillies possess. Questions about Bohm’s place on a major-league field persist, but if he hits, the Phillies will live with below-average defense at third base. At least for now.
    – Outside of Howard and Bohm, few players in the Phillies system are projected by rival evaluators as future big-league regulars — and that includes the talent added in recent drafts. Bryson Stott, the 14th overall pick in June’s draft, has earned high marks but is still an unknown. Mickey Moniak, the No. 1 pick in 2016, generates a wide range of opinions: Some evaluators view him as a regular if he gains strength; others see a second-division regular or fourth outfielder. Rafael Marchan, a 20-year-old catcher who must be added to the 40-man roster this winter, is highly regarded inside and outside the organization. Francisco Morales, a right-hander who turns 20 this week, flashed enough in 2019 to earn strong grades from some evaluators. Both Marchan and Morales were acquired as international free agents.

    Lots of other good quotes and analysis in this article. I recommend paying for the content. Gelb is awesome.

    1. Agreed, great article.

      I’m somewhat encouraged by recent developments. Haseley, Bohm, and Stott look like contributors of some kind moving forward with Bohm the only one flashing star potential. Those are the three most recent first rounders and all three will be MLB players.

      There’s also guys a little further down the pipe with promise like Kendall Simmons and Jamari Baylor who have tools and in small sample sizes have improved.

      I tend to think it’s not necessarily a draft issue, I think it’s historically been a player development issue. Time will tell.

      1. I agree. No team can be so lucky and have such a golden eye for talent consistently….or that unlucky to not have an occasional star rise from the weeds. Where the rubber meets the road is how these kids are brought along. The Phillies biggest issue IMO is development. Drafting high should be an advantage but only until the parent club begins to win. Then development becomes even more crucial, especially for pitchers.

      2. Jamari Baylor? How has he improved? He was in last year’s draft class, got injured, and had 11 at bats (3-11, .273). His sample size is minuscule, and he hasn’t played enough to gauge improvement. Bad example.

  26. i just finished reading it v1, and I was jotting down some numbers to post it. Cameron Rupp has the second highest WAR of our drafted hitters, Rhys is first. Now, Kingery, and hopefully, Haseley add to that, but the numbers are just bad. Now, I know that is mostly on the prior regime, and this is not attempting to blame Mac/Klentak. The organization has done a bad job. And, Gelb addresses the usual excuse that we drafted low a lot of those years. Well, over the same time frame, The Cardinals, Dodgers and Yankees had higher winning %s than we did. They all have done better. In fact, the Cards and Dodgers have done significantly better, drafting, on average, lower than we did. The Yankees are better, but still way behind the Dodgers and Cards. Overall, and excellent article. So, yes, we need Howard and Bohm to be good. I need Bohm to be good and to play 3B. Very simple reason, I want Bohm and Hoskins in the lineup. I don’t want to have the FO be forced to trade one of them, and hope they get back enough.

    1. Here’s the article. I read it, too.

      .

      I like Matt Gelb, and respect his work, and he makes good points about the lack of success the Phillies have had in drafting … but … then tries to sell the Yankees as a team to emulate when it comes to the draft. He seems to endorse the Brian Barber hire because he comes from a “forward thinking” organization:

      “Barber comes from a Yankees organization that has devoted significant resources to a data-based approach. The Yankees had two assistant directors of amateur scouting — one devoted to scouting and one to analytics. They employ more amateur scouts than the Phillies. They have at least three full-time employees devoted to amateur video studies.”

      For all the resources (money and manpower) the NYY’s throw at the draft, their recent track record stinks. See my post near the top of this thread for the facts about the Yankees record on drafting.

      1. Hinkie, what the Yankees seem to do well is to somehow acquire the talent that perennially provides them with depth at the major league level. So even if they aren’t “all that” with drafting, somebody knows who to trade, who not to trade, and allow the farm to marinate. So while we may question their propensity for drafting, they are clearly doing something right.

        1. 8mark … the Yankees do lots of things right. They ace the international market, they score high marks in the FA market, and they also do well when it comes to making trades. However, when it comes to the draft, the NYY’s have failed, and the Phillies are about to hire one of the Yankees’ national cross checkers to run the their drafts.
          When John Middleton hires Brian Cashman away from NY, I’ll throw a party. Not so much when it comes to Brian Barber.

  27. Reminder. Name calling is unacceptable. Even about players and front office types.

    Dumb and dumber, moron, and other names have no place in your comments. I don’t want to have to start deleting comments that otherwise have intelligent content. But, I will. And, if I do this, deletions have a mother-daughter effect where all comments attached to the offending comment are also deleted. So, other intelligent content with no name-calling is lost. So, I suggest you respond in a separate reply rather than reply directly to a comment that includes name calling.

    I’m also not fond of the Macklentak term used by many. I know it is meant in a demeaning way, but it has been used so long here, I’ll continue to overlook it.

    1. My apologies for using the ‘MacKlentak’ abbreviation a few years ago.
      It was something I ginned up from an old fav John Wayne Western movie from the 60’s….McLintock.

      1. Romus, a couple years ago, everyone still had a good feeling about the front office. I got the movie reference. But, now when I see it, I “hear” it in a negative way, like they are joined at the hip and don’t think independently. But that’s probably just me. No need to apologize. I should have said “think” rather than “know”. I really can’t “know” what each person means when they use it..

  28. In response to the question above – why would Joe Girardi want to be Phillies manager? I wouldn’t worry for him. The club president and GM have much less power now than any manager they hire, especially if it’s Girardi. And if he doesn’t win, they’re both as good as gone as well, anyway.

    Hiring Girardi is just step one to stabilize the on field operation. The real excitement begins with hiring the next pitching coach. If Middleton has pulled rank on MacPhail and Klentak, Girardi will have much to say about both his pitching and hitting coaches.

    1. So Middleton is now running the team, He already went over the GM head and fired Gabe, now he gets his manager, This imo opinion is really bad Owners with too much say, become Jerry Jones and Snyder

      1. Joe G is the man. Younger, is a balance between old school and analytics, and as a former catcher knows the game as a general. He can handle younger players and older players. Can blend FAs and prospects, Yankees.

  29. Thanks for posting the summary, v1.

    Can we all agree that this paragraph fairly summarizes the Phillie’s current system?

    “Outside of Howard and Bohm, few players in the Phillies system are projected by rival evaluators as future big-league regulars — and that includes the talent added in recent drafts. Bryson Stott, the 14th overall pick in June’s draft, has earned high marks but is still an unknown. Mickey Moniak, the No. 1 pick in 2016, generates a wide range of opinions: Some evaluators view him as a regular if he gains strength; others see a second-division regular or fourth outfielder. Rafael Marchan, a 20-year-old catcher who must be added to the 40-man roster this winter, is highly regarded inside and outside the organization. Francisco Morales, a right-hander who turns 20 this week, flashed enough in 2019 to earn strong grades from some evaluators.”

    If that is accurate, Middleton needs to pull out his wallet and buy, buy, buy!!

    P.S. — And wrt Moniak, it supports the view of many on here that he has a reasonable shot at being a first-division regular

      1. lol, I was trying to give you credit! But my main point is that Middleton is going to have to spend because the Phils’ drafting/player development (hard to split those apart) has been so poor.

    1. Strasburg is actually close to $40M when you add in his bonus and incentive clause.
      But next year it takes a dive for a few years…thus the option for an opt-out with him.

  30. What’s strange is outiside of the NL East rivalry I find it hard to dislike the Nats. I love Rendon, I like Kendrick have great respect for Zimmerman and how can you not like Juan Soto…

    It’s funny we talk about how well run all these other orgs are but we never bring up the Nats who by all accounts Rizzo excels in all facets of maintaining talent throughout his clubs. Be it trades, FA signs or who he doesn’t sign, drafting and International talent acquisition

    Yeah he’s struggled with his manager and the BP but otherwise his clubs have always been in the thick of it.

    1. I don’t particularly dislike any of the current Nat players. I love MadMax. He’s an absolute beast and a guy like him would either rub off on our young arms or scare the hell out of them. Mike Rizzo OTOH got under my skin a few years ago with his veiled jealousy of the Phillies, especially when our fans would travel down to DC and dominate their ball park. It was fun while it lasted.

      1. Yeah I remember Rizzo hiking the tix prices up for anyone purchasing Nats tix outside the DC metro specific zip code area….basically directing it at Phila and NY area zip codes.

    1. Well here’s to Barber hopefully be a great hire. I don’t put too much stock into the NYY draft record as a way to speculate how he will do since there are so many factors and variables involved although I can’t say I follow other teams drafting record. But look at the last hire, Johnny A came from one of the best scouting teams in the NL in the braves, if I’m not mistaken, how did that work out?

      Although there’s always going to be the development vs drafting arguments when you struggle to produce young talent. Either way we need better results, hopefully Howard, Bohm, and others like a Seabold or Connor Brogdon, or whoever can step up next year and give the roster a boost throughout the season.

      1. Daniel,

        I agree that you can put too much stock in NYY drafts. But as has been mentioned here repeatedly, the Yankees do a lot of things well to keep them in perennial contention. Maybe the Phillies can, too. Klentak has shown he can trade. Middleton can be a driving force to get the best free agent available. Add in some decent drafting and player development and a manager who, like Girardi, can combine old and new, and we just might have a future. Having said that, Of course, it now will take Middleton to get a strong front office and then stay out of the way.

  31. The latest the WS can end is October 30, which is next Wednesday. So, there is the 5 day “quiet time” and then FA starts in full. We, hopefully, have our new Manager, Joe Girardi, in place this week, then a HC and PC. I am really looking forward to see what this off season brings. I am hoping that this coming year fits the Playoff time table for Misters MacPhail and Klentak.

    1. Unless he really wants to be in New York, long term, this is a much better situation for him. Much less turmoil, more money, and, oh yeah, a former agent isn’t the GM. The Mets have more talent right now for sure, but their front office recalls visions of the Knicks and Jets. I don’t think the Mets job is very stable at all. If he wins here, he could be around for a while.

  32. Well, if the Phillies don’t hire Joe Girardi at this point, there will be an uprising in this city. There is no way they can spin such a development into a positive. His visit with the Mets (today or tomorrow) has to be eye wash.

    I also think that Middleton made sure all 3 supposed candidates’ names – Baker, Girardi and Showalter – got out there for public consumption so that he would have full support when Joe G officially gets the gig.

    1. Last four years his FIP has steadily risen from 4.6 to 6.
      After 2700 innings pitched…he could be burned out.
      He may have to settle for a minor league contract from someone.

    2. No to King Felix that arm is cooked but yes to George Springer if I don’t think I can land Rendon

      Not sure why Cole chose to go back to back off speed to Soto last night. He had a base open when Soto hit that double to LF. Crazy how 2 missed spots changed the entire complexion of that game.

      Smoltz is saying as the pitch occurs to Zim you don’t want to throw him velocity down and before he can finish his sentence the ball is going over the wall.

    3. A resounding no on King Felix. He hasn’t been good since 2015. And the amount of innings he has thrown in his career is downright scary.

  33. I’m with you Troll…it’s Joe G ALLLLL the way or I’m going to be somewhat disappointed. Also Juan Soto is such an amazing player @ such a young age…..He’s going to be giving us nightmares for years.

  34. On the managers side, I think Giradi is the sexy pic, and has a well rounded resume, but I believe Buck is the better fit.

    Reading between the lines, taking Tex’s experiences with both managers into account, Buck seems to have the edge in dealing with younger players, continuing to help them improve. I see him having a higher chance of unlocking some of the talent many see in Pivetta,Efflin, and VV. The below quote pushes Showalter to the front of the line for me

    “With the onslaught of analytics, if you give [Showalter] a roster that has talent and give him the numbers, he’ll figure out how to get the most out of that team,” Teixeira said. “Buck’s just one of those guys that has never seen a situation that he can’t figure out how to get the upper hand. There’s not a sharper baseball mind that I’ve come across in my entire career.”

    Plus the FO should have no excuses. Giradi gets the fans more excited, but again I think Buck is the better fit for this team

    1. If you go by the odds…..over the last 80 years only two managers have won WS rings with their second club….Sparky Anderson with the Tigers and Tony LaRussa with the Cardinals. And only four in the entire MLB history…..so hoping Joe G will make some history if he is the man
      Then again, Buck reminds me of a version of Charlie Manuel who came from the Indians….gets them close but no ring..

        1. 8mark…..you are not a gambling man I see.
          Rocco, otoh, bets the odds. Waiting for his choice.
          I can live with either, but prefer the guy who is the hungriest.

    2. I have no phobia’s to hiring Buck but even I can see Pitching wasn’t a strong suit of his. He had Arrieta and couldn’t help to unlock him.

      But something that could be offset with a fantastic pitching coach.

      1. I was leaning Giradi but I think Buck is the best fit, and a good choice as pitching coach would make him even stronger. If not for the pitchers, he still has hoskins, kingery, haseley, and bohm to boost. With Grullon, Moniak, and Stott Likeky to follow.
        To romus point, I’d also like to not have to have the new manager make MLB history on a championship level, I’ll play the odds there as well, so:

        Buck, final decision – get it done Middleton. 2 years, no playoffs, then clean out the FO.

  35. We need to do much better in the International market, as long as one lasts. I wonder if the new guy, Barber, will help there?

    1. Yankees have the name recognition ….and the dollars in the past to get those bigger name Latin players.
      But gems can be found with fewer dollars….Altuve was a $15K signee by the Astros and Acuna was an approx. $100K signee by the Braves.
      And hopefully the draft gets finalized , so things become more equal I talent acquisition…now scouting will become numero uno priority.

      I am keeping my fingers crossed on OFer Miguel Tejeda Jr….he should be in the GCL this spring, but is coming off a poor season in the DoSL as a 17-year old this past season.
      Hoping his working out this off-season will help, especially if his father is there to guide him….he has all the tools and great size.

  36. I’m not sure what all the Buck vs Joe G talk is about at this point. Girardi said yesterday to Mike Francesa that he’ll know within 48 hours….the Mets are still interviewing everybody and their uncle….the Cubs are between Ross and Estrada. Tomorrow it’s officially announced. Let’s talk pitching coaches….

    1. Saw somewhere last night suggesting Girardi may ask John Farrell to be his PC. In any case, word is he’s calling candidates now.

  37. I really don’t care whether it’s Girardi or Showalter, both can do a good job. However, I think the HC and PC fills will be even more important than which manager of these two. If one of the two can draw better coaches for those two jobs, that’s who I would hire for mgr

    1. Both can handle the bright lights. Both know how to navigate the ins and outs of game strategy. I think Girardi is better suited for the recent developments of MLB, and his personality is IMO better for the mix of veterans and youth on the roster. In the face of adversity, I’m also more comfortable with Joe than Buck. Not a huge difference, but every advantage matters. The MacPhail/Klentak factor wouldn’t be too much of an issue either way, considering they have lost lots of leverage. And finally, any supposed Bryce-Buck rift tips it in Joe’s favor.

      1. I forgot about that potential buck/Harper issue… I still go Buck if it was my choice (I know it’s not) I’m sure Either will do a good job in the end, but I think ultimately Buck would do better.

        Hopefully the FO assembles a team of players so good, that someone like rocco could even manage the team to a championship or two! 🙂

      1. DMAR…but why?
        JTR probably has 3/4 more good catching years left in his body.
        To lose him for a compensation pick in 2021 between the first and second round of the draft would be ridiculous after what he cost the Phillies.
        To offer him cheap…he will be insulted and turn down and just leave.
        I do not see any other way around it that benefits the Phillies other than offer him a LTC with a a little higher than reasonable AAV.

        1. Romus … it’s even worse than that. The compensation pick the Phillies would receive for losing JTR would come after round two. Only the low revenue clubs get compensated with draft choices after round one when losing FA’s. I’m not sure about this … but … the compensation may even fall to post third round if you are over the luxury tax threshold.
          Bottom line is … there is no way GM Middleton doesn’t extend Realmuto. He probably gets something like 110 million over five years.

        2. For me Romus its simply that: A. Catchers get beat up back there and are more prone to injury than most other positions B. I’d like to invest that $$$ elsewhere and C. I imagine he could fetch 2 really good players in a trade.

          So while I agree you have to sign him if you have no intent of trading him this off season because his value is at it’s highest right now.

          Suppose he would fetch us a Glasnow/Meadows type package?

          1. DMAR……well since you put it that way, and I am not easily swayed like rocco, just maybe a Glasnow/Meadows type deal could work.
            But that means Matt K has to start to thin the herd grazing in the CBP OF….but also, and who becomes the catcher?
            .

            1. Who becomes catcher is a good question. I like the 2 for 1 approach that both the Nats and Stros employ. There will be a bunch of solid catchers on the market.

              I don’t think I stick with Knapp any further. I’d probably give the back-up job to Grullon.

      2. I can see this argument if the Phillies weren’t in WIN NOW mode. And if one thinks they are not, so be it. But to have the best player at such a premium defensive position, with very good if not excellent offensive skills, at the precipice of making a serious run for contention shouldn’t be considered a trade piece.

    1. If they don’t, it should be an indictment on Klentak. He doesn’t have to keep Realmuto, but the team needs to be better off in the end than it would’ve been with Sixto in their holster. If Sixto develops into a #2 or better, a rotation of

      Nola
      Sixto
      Howard
      Arrietta
      Efflin

      Looks young, cheap, and productive before adding that big FA arm:

      Cole, Strasburg, or Wheeler looks pretty good to me for being added to that group for a nice 5 year window of opportunity

      1. I suggest that while the young arms of the rotation in 2019 were at best inconsistent, they would have been outright nightmarish with Jorge Alfaro/Andrew Knapp behind the plate. Realmuto is gold. If you trade him, even for one year of control, you have to get gold in return.

        1. Nobody wants to hear this but . . . I think Knapp calls a better game than Realmuto, at least that was true last year. He can’t hit worth a damn but he knows how to call pitches.

          1. If so, his inability to stop pitches out of the strike zone is horrendous and counters his pitch calling. He and Pivetta looked like the Keystone Cops on a couple occasions this season. Embarrassing.

          2. Together they provided decent defense,
            JTR—-Fldg%–…….992….dWAR…1.7…..133 games
            Knapp-Fldg%-…….991….dWAR….0.2…..43 games

  38. So Ross to the Cubs, informally announced today, on a World Series game day. The fact that there has been no announcement on Girardi, worries me. It tells me he is not fully sold on the gig and is hoping the Mets give a solid offer.

  39. Troll Girardi has different options, As I stated before why take this unstable situation, I wouldn’t take the phillies job, wait for the mets

  40. The rest of that “don’t sign JTR” story involved trading him and signing “someone like Travis D’Arnaud”. I’m sorry, we have the best C in the game. Keep him and then go get better players for the holes we have. I have no worries about having $ to spend. I read his story and completely disagree.

  41. Andy Martino (SNY) says, per MLB sources, that the NYY will be in pursuit of Gerrit Cole. However, he also throws some cool water on their chances because of luxury tax implications. Cashman will have to be creative in shaving some serious salary, what with arb eligible guys like Judge coming up for big bucks.

    If the Phillies find themselves on the outside looking in, this is where Klentak might use Brian Barber to extract a few young Yankee prospects by taking on some excess money. OR Didi Gregorius, who Cashman wouldn’t be able to re-sign, might look pretty good at 3b in red pinstripes.

  42. Spencer Howard pitches his last game tonight for the Scorpions.
    Season championship game finishes up on Saturday…Scorpions last game is tomorrow however. Next up….. Mexico.

  43. Need the Astros to pull through here, when they do, hopefully it can come down to a Joe carter type moment against the Nats for their wonderful fan base, all 5 of them

  44. I don’t like the Nats, and it is really based on divisional rivalry plus Rizzo’s attempts to lock out Phillies fans. But, they have guys I really respect like Scherzer and Rendon. I can’t dislike them with the same fervor I do the Mets and Braves.

    1. You might after all the harassing philly will get, I can see it now … philly can have harper, will take the WS champs … it will be pretty annoying imo

  45. I’m seeing a post on Instagram that it’s Girardi to the Phillies.. I don’t recognize the guy so I’m not enclosing the link.. I haven’t seen anything else to confirm this news.. Anyone else?

  46. Want the Astros to win it…but the silver lining in the Nats winning a ring….Strasburg will more than likely decide to walk…he accomplished what he intended to do…..plus the next three years on this current contract he takes almost a 40% decline in pay.
    https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/stephen-strasburg-6865/

    Having another Boras client out there with Rendon and Cole may make it easier on Middleton in negotiating a favorable deal for one of them if he so intends on pursuing one of the three.

    1. Romus, if Strasburg opts out, it may likely be that the Nats will simply add another year or 2, and he’ll be good with that. In fact, that has probably been discussed with his agent already. Don’t hold your breath…

      BUT that would probably mean Rendon is not re-signing with the Nats. So there’s that…

  47. If I was a betting man, I’d say that Cole will go to the Angels and Strasburg will get extended and stay with the Nats. That will leave the Phils to overpay to try and get Wheeler and Hamels to come here. However that might put Rendon in play although I think they might go after Didi instead, moving Segura to 2b and leaving Kingery at 3b until Bohm is ready. Would Galvis come back as a bench player and defensive replacement?

    1. Signing Rendon makes little sense for the Phillies. First, he’s coming off a career year with postseason glory and is going to be seriously overpaid – I’d rather the Phillies not be the overpaying party. Second, the Phillies need pitching most of all and every dollar they pay for Rendon is a dollar less for pitching. Third, they need to be value-oriented. Their best prospect is a third baseman – you don’t tie up that position when you have a vaunted low-cost player for that position who is expected to be in the majors sometime this year. If the Phillies sign Rendon then that’s a like warning blast that they have no idea of how to build a team and structure their payroll. They need to buy some pitching, especially starting pitching. And they need the best pitching coaches and hitting coaches that money can buy.

      1. Agree….concentrate on pitching…..if not Cole or Strasburg, then one or two of the lesser variety. And seriously think about trading for a starting arm

        1. I can see your point on Rendon not necessarily fitting the team structure, if he decides to leave WAS. What I’ll add is, the FO preference for players who can play multiple positions at the Major league level, which makes roster building a little hard to predict. I feel the only player you can pencil in is Harper in RF. Too much can happen between now and opening day with this FO on the hot seat

    1. Good, solid move. I’m happy they are doing this. If you wanted someone with experience who communicates well, has been a winner and can blend old and new world attributes, he’s an excellent pick. I think they got this one right. And I love that he is from outside the organization – we need some non-Oriole insights.

  48. Joe Girardi rt is! Good job. Hinkie, what do you think of John Farrell as Pitching coach? I know your first choice is Calloway.

    1. Excellent hire!
      Thank God the Phillies dodged the Buck Showalter bullet.
      Next step … get Mickey Calloway in here as the new pitching coach!

      matt … Farrell has been on my list (along with Calloway, Snyder [who may not be available], Righetti, and Searage). Calloway is #1 for me, but he may want to hold out for another managerial position. The Mets owe him (at least) one more year.

    1. Romus … that’s a little surprising. Maybe this means the Phillies are going to sign 19 YO Cuban exile Norge Carlos Vera. Vera has a higher ceiling than Po-Yu Chen.
      Vera has 4 average or better pitches: FB 91-94 T 96, CT, CH, SL. Fangraphs lists Vera as the top international pitcher for this year’s J2 class.

      .

      Or maybe the Phillies are just in a holding pattern until Yohswar Garcia is eligible to be signed.

      1. Time out.
        Romus … I just clicked on the story you linked. That’s the wrong Taiwanese pitcher. The Phillies are in on Po-Yu Chen. He’s 18 YO. The kid the CWS are signing is 20 YO.
        Po competed in the U18 Basseball World Cup a few weeks ago. During the tournament, he pitched in three games (2 starts and 1 out of the BP), and went 2-0, 1 save, 14 IP, 9 H, 3 BB, 12 K. The 6’2″, 190 lb RHP throws 90-92 FB, above avg CH, and present avg CB. He’s ranked the #22nd overall J2 prospect by Fangraphs.
        I believe there’s a good chance he signs with the Phillies.

          1. Yeah. The Phillies are finally leaving a footprint in Asia. They signed Taiwanese RHP Lin Hsin-Chieh last summer.

            .

            They also brought in Chinese catcher Bruce Wang.

            They were the favorites to sign LHP Lin An-Ko until he ultimately decided to stay at home. He was the fourth overall pick in the CPBL draft this summer.

            And this place is a hot spot in South Korea:

            1. BTW … probably the top teenage pitching prospect in the world, Roki Sasaki, is passing up the opportunity to head straight to MLB. The 17 YO Japanese flame throwing RHP (up to 101 MPH) was the first pick in the NPB draft last week.

      2. Hinkie……I hope Matt Klentak is thinking along those lines.
        They need to make a splash of sorts in the international market.

      3. This guy is still out there from Cuba.
        Yiddi Cappe Rank: 7 .Hometown: Havana, Cuba
        Position: SS…..Age: 17 DOB: 8/17/2002
        Bats: R Throws: R………..Height: 6’3″ Weight: 175 lb.
        WATCH
        Scouting grades: Hit: 55 Power: 55 Run: 55| Arm: 60 Field: 50
        The young infielder left Cuba late last year and has quickly emerged as one of the top international prospects eligible to sign when the next international signing period starts July 2. Tall and lean, Cappe has an athletic and projectable body. He has a body frame similar to a young Carlos Correa or Derek Jeter at a similar age with the potential to fill out as he develops
        He projects to have average to plus tools across the board. At the plate, he shows advanced bat to ball skills and his bat tool projects to be above average. He makes hard contact to all fields and has an advanced understanding of the strike zone. He shows good footwork and solid hands on defense with plus arm potential. He could eventually outgrow the position, but for now, he’ll start at shortstop until he is forced to make a change.
        He began playing baseball at age 4 in the youth leagues of Havana and in the national competition with the team from the Artemisa province at 16. He never traveled outside of Cuba and scouts did not have a chance to evaluate him until this year.
        Cappe trains with Wellington Herrera and is represented by Yolfri Sanchez in the Dominican Republic. It’s uncertain if he will sign during the upcoming period or wait until July 2, 2020, to sign.

        1. If the international draft materializes as proposed…..Yiddi Cappe may sign before June 15 to garner more of a salary /bonus.

            1. That may be the case, though this Commissioner likes to make changes on the fly it seems….until the union steps in and slows him down..

  49. I agree with catch and Romus. Pitching has to be the focus. I think Rendon is terrific, but we need young talent as part of the team, and our best one is a 3B. I want Cole, but there is no guarantee we get him, so Plans B,C and even D need to be in place. I have Wheeler next on my list, only because I don’t think MadBum actually comes here. There is a next tier after them, and there are some trade options like Danny Duffy and Freeland, Romus’ guy. I am not counting much on Arrieta, and we need BP help also. But, it is doable, IMO, to put us in position to be a Playoff team. Alot will also depend on Rhys and Kingery getting better, Haseley being an every day player, and Nola getting back to 2018 form.

  50. Jo Jo Romero with 7 games and 9 innings of shutout ball after allowing runs in his first game. Very encouraging sign. Maybe he’s back on track. Is he still a starting pitcher prospect? I think so.

  51. Just to remind everyone, the two World Series teams have six combined excellent starting pitchers between them. Only one is home grown. They’re all hired guns. We need to go find our hired guns to assist Nola, our home grown guy. Another winter waiting on Boras….

  52. Hiring Joe Girardi may have some pleasant side effects….like attracting some higher profile talent. MadBum may even be lured. But Wheeler should certainly be a reasonable target. Gerrit Cole will be just beyond our reach, IMO. However, I think NYY and LAA will be bidding against each other to the point that the Phillies get overlooked in the process.

    I would also agree that the best pitching value may come via trade.

  53. Other than Larry Brown with the Sixers two decades ago, I can’t recall a Philadelphia pro sports team hiring such a bonafide coach/manager. Most have been experimental or first time hires or retreads.

      1. They also hired Vigneault this past offseason, so I’m guessing he’s not a huge hockey fan and was thinking more along the lines of the other 3 teams.

  54. 8mark, who are you eyeing on the trade market? Do you agree that Bohm/Howard are not available? Are there available, reasonably gettable, a new word, BP options so we don’y have to go the FA route for both of the additions I think we need?

    1. I doubt they sign 2 free agent SPs despite our pleas. They will definitely sign one or look the fools if not. Then I would seriously pursue Mike Minor or an arm of his calibre. Relievers are so transient and unpredictable, just acquire a couple with some major league success without lots of mileage.

  55. I still think this team is 2 years away. Arrietta would be a key to speeding it up, one way or another. 20 mil is allotted to him, which really needs to go to a frontline starter. If Howard can be what mny think, and Giradi can get one of Efflin, Pivetta, or VV to step up, the rotation would be on the upswing, if they could nab a top FA

    Cole
    Nola
    Howard

    Vs

    Scherzer
    Strasburg
    Corbin

    I could see that being competitive if signings happened, and Howard develops.

  56. Eiland (53 YO) has a relationship with Zack Wheeler. He worked for the Mets until being fired by them this summer.
    Rothschild is older (65), has a pretty strong track record, and probably has the higher profile. He used to be a manager (Tampa).

    1. As much as I’ve turned sour on Arrieta, I’m hoping that he’ll get healthy and better motivated in his walk year. But I’m not counting on him staying healthy all season.

    1. Meanwhile … across town … Brian Cashman is getting trashed for not doing enough to upgrade the NYY’s starting rotation.

      .
      I hope Cashman gets so fed up, he quits sometime next year. How fast do you think John Middleton would toss out MacKlentak? And how much money do you think he’d throw at Cashman?

  57. Here you go. Jim Salisbury mentions Mickey Calloway as a possible pitching coach for the Phillies. For me … GM Middleton hits a grand slam if he pulls off the Girardi/Calloway daily double !!!

  58. It has been building for a while. There was heat when they failed to get Verlander last year. What we have done to our FO is nothing compared to NY over their SP. I don’t know if it changes anything as far as the willingness to get Cole this off season, but you know that the Yankees will get someone. I am anxious to see what we really do. Not getting to the Playoffs this year, would, quite probably, mean a new GM next year, and it starts all over again. I can’t imagine Girardi signing unless convinced by Middleton that we are going for it this year, and SP will be upgraded.

    1. matt13….agree.
      As a former catcher he knows pitching is numero uno in building a championship team…or he may favor that philosophy.

  59. 8mark, you beat me to it! Good for them. I was very impressed with Bryce’s D this year, JTR is the best in Baseball, and I, quite frankly, didn’t know that Aaron’s D was that well regarded. Greinke has always been a GG finalist. I look forward to Scott Kingery making the list at 2B next year!

  60. Spitballing time again….

    Let’s sign Didi Gregorius to play SS, move Segura to 3b, and put Kingery in his rightful position. Then we get to see this starting lineup from Joe G almost every day:

    Andrew McCutchen lf
    JT Realmuto c
    Bryce Harper rf
    Rhys Hoskins 1b
    Didi Gregorius ss
    Jean Segura 3b
    Adam Haseley cf
    Scott Kingery 2b

    Aaron Nola
    Zach Wheeler
    Mike Minor
    Jake Arrieta
    Zach Eflin
    and introducing…Spencer Howard

    1. …and somewhere in the mix, Alec Bohm makes his major league debut. Perhaps that makes Jean Segura a trade chip at the deadline? Get us a fair return, no?

  61. Really not a bad idea, 8mark. I still want to try for Cole, but this is pretty good. What, in your scenario, did it take to get Mike Minor? And, assuming it wasn’t Doobie, Cesar or Franco, VV or Pivetta, do any of them, or any combination of them, get us anything?

    1. For Minor, matt13? Bear in mind that he would be a 1 year rental, if you will. If we can extend him, great! But if not, it shouldn’t require high minors talent. Maybe a Marchan, JoJo, and Moniak….whatever, I think we can package enough to make it happen. But can Klentak? If Minor decided to walk after 2020, we can always go fishing in next winter’s free agent market, AND get a comp pick in return for losing him. I’m not going to worry about it now. Minor at age 32 should give us close to what he did for Texas in ’19.

      1. Matt, Texas GM Jon Daniels publicly regretted losing Odubel to the Phillies in the rule 5 draft a few back. Now of course, I’m sure he doesn’t hold him with the same esteem. But – perhaps he’d be willing to take a flyer on him, maybe as a change of scenery candidate. Plus that might change the construction of the package we send to the Rangers.

    2. Payroll allocation is tight, bring back realmuto on what is expected to be a 20
      Mil year deal. What are your guys thoughts on … Middleton pushing through the pain, to bring in G.Cole, at his insane salary, with Arrietta coming off the books after this year? If they believe Howard is a #2 or 3, I can see them
      Going full tilt for it, with 4 & 5 spots being filled out/in with some combination of Efflin,Pivetta, VV, Irvin, DLS, and Seabold for 2021. A lot of them would trickle into the bullpen if not

      I don’t see Segura movingvto 3rd for DD. What about Bohm? I have a feeling Segura is trade bait. I’ve heard the rumblings about his effort/hustle, and will say it’s pretty far off from A chase utley hustle. Crazy because he is a top bat, in terms of contact. Could be this years Santana with Bohm knocking on the door, or just about

      Cole, Nola, and

      1. Tac3, Moving on from Cesar covers the raise that JTR gets. Kingery moves to 2B, so no need to spend more $ to fill the hole that Cesar leaves. Maybe a stop gap at 3B, maybe a DiDi, that will certainly cost money, but there is room to get what we need, add G. Cole, if they can, and not exceed the Luxury tax. Without Cole, then there is more $ room. I don’t know that they then trade for a SP, or get another through FA of the Odirizzi, Alex Wood variety. I am not minimizing the $ factor, but ir is doable.

    3. As for Cesar and Franco, I believe the Phillies will try to excise every bit of salary they can in order to manage the payroll moving forward, and not just for 2020. Jim posted that there isn’t a whole lot of wiggle room before bumping up against the luxury tax line as it is. They may get takers for either player but once the arb figures are due, I doubt they tender either. Velasquez has bullpen written across his forehead. Pivetta? I don’t really care what they decide to do with him, but who knows what happens under a new pitching coach?

  62. Boyd for a package centered around Segura& Medina?

    Then Sign Cole or Wheeler … or maybe Rendon makes sense at that point, move Hoskins back to LF.

    Nola
    Boyd
    Howard
    Arrietta
    Efflin

    McCutchen -CF
    Kingery – SS
    Harper – RF
    Rendon -3B
    Realmuto – C
    Hoskins -LF (cringe but..)
    Bohm -1B
    Cehe -2B (survives Rocco!)

    You’re welcome Klentak!

    I see it as a possibility but still like being Ace strong with Cole and Nola

    1. Sorry, Tac3. Not seeing much of that happening. Lot of moving parts, square pegs in round holes. And try as they might for Cole, the Phillies have about a 10% shot at luring him here.

      1. 8mark, I see a lot of ways it “could” go, likely they have a few plans dependent upon how FA winds up going. I don’t have the same feeling I had last year that they’d land BH/MM, but Cole is a pretty good possibility. They’ll have to overpay, but they likely have a better chance than 10%. Giradi is a win now hire, and with the Nats success, I can see the Phillies banking up the vault for Cole. Cole,Nola, and Howard is pretty enticing. You can fill out 4&5 any number of way. Last SP failures I would suspect could make a living in the bullpen if full engaged.

        Maybe Hamels would come back on somewhat of a sweetheart deal if so. All in all, I think there is a path to winning through a strong offense or a strong pitching staff. The key is to pick one and finish off the bullpen. Will see which way the FO wants to go this offseason

    2. Tac3…..Medina’s situation is puzzling.
      As of yet today he is the only non-injured 40 roster member not on the active roster/list.
      The other 10 are on the 60 day IL…at least until after the WS is over and this season officially ends..
      Something is amiss with Adonis.

    3. Howard starts 2020 in the minors. He’s a fantastic talent but he needs more innings before being brought up.. My guess a 2020 September call-up.

        1. Spencer had a great time in AZ and feels great. All involved decided it best not to keep going and go to Mexico. It’s now all about next year. Connor has also been shut down.

          1. Good – that alleged information shocked and surprised me – you don’t send your best prospects to two off season leagues – it makes for fatigue and injuries. Good to hear Spencer will be resting up and training for next year.

      1. He probably does, but it sounds as if he is close enough. With his fastball in the high 90s, I’d rush him a bit. Things shouldn’t have to be the perfect scenario for someone to succeed. He Is killing AFL, I think they should take the leap of faith with him. Just do it, bring him up in early May

        1. I’m with you on this, Tac3. I subscribe to the notion that a pitcher – especially a gifted one with high octane stuff – has only so many “bullets” alotted to him. Let’s not have him waste too many on the farm. Besides, with the questionable development we’ve been wary of, the sooner he’s up and under an authentic major league pitching coach, the better.

  63. Romus as a favorite to you, I will call my contacts and see what is going on, I will make a few calls, and find out.

  64. Romus, are we sure it isn’t simply an oversite? I can find nothing hinting at anything involving him, that would indicate an injury, or other situation that involved him. I can’t believe something would not have found its way to the public, if it involved something that would impact his status with the team..

    1. matt13……everything we would address would be speculation.
      And it could be a host of a variety of different things…. medical issue unrelated to baseball, minor leaguers random testing, family personal issues or maybe oversight on their part, but for this long would seem odd.
      I do think after I believe five days after the WS ends, personnel on the 60 day IL must be changed and the whole 40 gets scrubbed…..and probably then we will know Medina’s status.

  65. Maybe Drew Smyly turns into our Mike Minor….here is their velos before and after TJ

    Drew Smyly:
    Year…Fourseam
    2012 92.29
    2013 91.98
    2014 90.85
    2015 91.18
    2016 90.96
    2017 92.70
    ….TJ
    2019 91.45

    Mike Minor:

    Year.. Fourseam
    2009 91.88
    2010 91.96
    2011 91.86
    2012 91.18
    2013 91.27
    2014 91.68
    ….TJ
    2017 94.67
    2018 93.26
    2019 92.78

    1. Yes. Drew Smyly is the perfect comp for Mike Minor. About a month ago, while researching Smyly’s worth/next contract, I was struck by how much alike 2019 Drew Smyly is to 2017 Mike Minor (that’s when he hit the open market):

      * Both 30 YO
      * Both LHP
      * Both former day one draft picks
      * Both former SEC SP’s
      * Both missed two seasons recovering from injury to their throwing limb.
      * Both averaged about the same bWAR entering free agency (Minor 1.1 per season, Smyly 1.3 per season)

      Minor got a 3 year/27 million dollar deal. I think Smyly (like Minor) will get stronger/better another year out from TJ, and could get a similar contract.

      1. I get the idea, Hinkie. Problem is, Minor has actually done it and turned the corner. Smyly is only a theory right now. How much do we invest in that gamble.

        1. 8mark…look at the numbers more closely….besides the fact Minor is older, he is also dropping in velo, a caution flag…odds are Smyly will be more productive, and less expensive and give the Phillies more of an opportunity to sign a TOR FA.

          1. Romus, that would be ideal. I do believe we’ll sign 1 FA SP. TOR? Well, there’s only one of those on the upcoming market. Wheeler is my guess. We’ll need to acquire a 2nd arm somehow. I don’t think that re-signing Smyly alone will charge up the troops buying tickets. So while he’s certainly a possibility to be a successful comeback story, there needs to be a viable #3/4 target. Minor is cheaper in terms of dollars for 1 season, call it a trial year to see if we want to re-sign him. If not, we’re not overcommitted. And I wouldn’t even suggest this if we weren’t in the Joe Girardi WIN NOW mode.

            1. I sure hope Middleton shoots for Cole vs Wheeler.
              As for Smyly …he could command a two year plus an option year at $9 or $10M AAV.
              With Minor I just see some of the Arrieta decline happening after 2020.
              His velo is ticking down every year since his first year back from TJ and that is what Arrieta was experiencing, even without the TJ but the elbow issues over the years.

        2. 8 mark … the point I was making is Smyly, today, is a helluva lot like Minor in 2017 (see above for all of the similarities). Minor signed a 3 year/27 million dollar contract and really took off in his early 30’s as he moved further out from TJ. I think Smyly has a chance for similar results.
          I heard Corey Seidman (on a Phillies pre or post game show) say he’d bring Smyly back on a minor league deal. That’s just not gonna’ happen. IMO … Smyly gets something similar to the 3 year/27 million contract that Minor got.

          1. I think Smyly can be had for a fairly low price – 2 year K around $10-14 m (total, not per year) plus a third year option for around $7-8m. It’s a wise investment, he’ll probably be no worse than a #4, but could be a lot better and the market won’t be strong for him at all – people won’t forget those ugly stat lines he put up this year for other teams.

          2. Well, Hinkie – let’s also hope that as we’ve been saying a lot here, the new PC would factor favorably in Smyly’s resurgence….along with a couple of other reclamation projects. Jim Salisbury has been talking up current NYY pitching coach (possibly soon to be their ex-PC) Larry Rothschild. Not sure what results he boasts of what with Cashman not having been big on focusing their staff over the years.

  66. According to Ken Rosenthal, Chaim Bloom has interviewed for the Red Sox GM job. Word is they are nearing the end of their search. What a shame if he gets hired and settles in with Boston when Middleton couldn’t bring himself to clean house.

    1. Bloom is considered a favorite to get the job. As jacked as I am about the Girardi hiring, this would be a bitter pill for me to swallow. The kid has 15 years of experience with Tampa and would have blown Klentak out of the water had MacPhail not been the one trusted by Middleton to pick our GM 4 years ago.

  67. I have a hard time also getting excited about Girardi knowing we have a GM that has lacked vision and creativity.

    We have a roster that needs a major overhaul, needs to infuse talent, needs to shed a plethora of guys that are in no man’s land, needs to sign an impact bat and somehow acquire an impact SP and that’s before we even get into shoring up the BP.

    Seems a daunting task…

    The shingle outside MK’s door should read open for business (but don’t ask me about Bohm or Howard)

  68. Matt Gelb has another good article in the Athletic. It talked about a disconnect between the analytics reports and actual game preparation, in that there was some stream of information that Gabe and the coaches came to distrust. In the middle of the season there became instances where Gabe would prepare game day plans that did not coincide with those generated by the analytics department. I don’t profess to understand how it works in a baseball game, I do know that, in any business, preparation and routine become important in doing your job to the best of your ability. This does not attack Gabe or Matt Klentak, simply what Gelb has reported. I have always trusted him. I have no idea how it works in successful teams. Players began to push back, and their were instances of complaints that the “quants” were in the clubhouse with the playing personnel. One of the things that Girardi brings is the ability to be smart but deliver the information in a more simplified way. It talks about compromises that Klentak had to make. First, Kapler being fired. Second, Girardi will have a big say in the hitting and pitching coaches. Third, Girardi will have input into roster structure. I recommend that you read it. If, I have, in any way, misread the article or misinterpreted it, please let me know.

  69. Let’s celebrate in the very positive impact Girardi is going to have on this team and franchise in the short term, while we mourn the loss of the Bloom front office opportunity to solve the long term challenges. Many argued that Gabe struggled because he was new in his role and that he should stay. Let’s apply the same logic to our GM and hope that he improves going forward. Not sure how to try and spin MacPhail optimistically at this point, but I’m sure Gabe could…

    1. I just have a hard time wrapping my head around the fact that Middleton would go half in (firing just Kapler), instead of all in (throwing out MacPhail and Klentak, too). Middleton made it clear, during that disastrous press conference, that he has lost confidence in the remaining two.
      Did Middleton want to avoid looking foolish for extending MacKlentak just months earlier? Did Middleton want to employ an impotent FO so he could be even more hands on?
      Whatever the reason, missing out on Chaim Bloom is a really big deal IMO.

        1. For whatever reason Middleton hired MacPhail, that was the end of Bloom coming here before there was even a chance. MacPhail is a card carrying member of the Good Old Boy Network. His boy Klentak was a shoe in. I only wonder if Middleton even met Bloom when he was here for the interview back in ’15….water under the proverbial bridge now. This is akin to the Phillies traditionally getting the lesser brother. Like a curse. No sh!t.

        2. Buddy … while we’ll never know for sure, these facts can be considered:

          * Bloom was interested in the Phillies in 2015
          * Bloom is from Philly
          * As stale as the Phillies farm system has become, it far outshines Boston’s. The Red Sox farm may be the worst in baseball.

          1. The Red Sox made a deal with the devil when they hired Dombrowski who left Detroit in a similar state of chaos. Cherington had his faults but he developed so many high level talents.

  70. I might be missing something here, but I don’t understand how some think G Cole has little to no chance of signing with the Phillies. I am not advocating for his signing, but I believe like many more before him, that he will follow the money. It was stated by some that Harper wouldn’t sign because he favored the west coast. Corbin and Machado were lifetime Yankee fans and would sign with the Yankees. All of them followed the money. All athletes want to get paid the maximum(Cliff Lee being the anomaly). That being said, I may prefer Wheeler/Strasburg over Cole based on our need to fill out the rest of the roster. I agree with those above about trading for someone like Minor(doesn’t have to be him, but make a savvy move to improve the rotation). Lastly, I like what I saw from Smyly and would sign him to a 2 or 3 year deal. Love Howard and anticipate his introduction into the lineup sometime in 2020.

    1. Good post, Chin Music….I’m one of those who think it’s less likely the Phillies sign Cole….not because they (Middleton) wouldn’t be willing to make the effort, but while Klentak has said publicly that they will be “aggressive” this winter, my interpretation is that it would be wider ranging activity to upgrade the roster as a whole, and NOT necessarily the big splash that Cole represents. Many of us here are realizing that the needs of this team go wider and deeper than signing Gerrit Cole, which would eat up most if not all of what they will have to spend.

      My suggestion of trying to acquire one year of Mike Minor is based in his reasonable affordability, both in what it would take in young talent as well as salary. Minor doesn’t have to be a long term commitment. Let’s not forget that there will be a pitching market NEXT winter as well. Meanwhile, I would focus on providing Joe Girardi with playoff viability for 2020. We can still judiciously augment our system depth for ’21 and beyond.

      Therefore, my 2 starting pitching targets would be Zach Wheeler and one of either Wood (FA) or Hamels (FA) or Minor (trade). Plan B would be MadBum and Odorizzi.

  71. Hinkie, I feel your pain. But, I have to be optimistic. Matt Klentak, not Chaim Bloom, will be the next Andrew Friedman! Otherwise, I would just be depressed. I think the answer is that Middleton, after lauding Klentak for “the best off season ever. Not even Branch Rickey had one as good.”, did not want to blow it all up. We may see it as his having lost faith, but he, in his mind, may really believe that he is simply helping Klentak to learn and grow. In deference to jim, I don’t combine the two anymore, so I will ignore MacPhail. I think he is there to do some of the business work, and because he knows a lot of league people. But, Middleton has painted himself into a corner, and if this year ends as last season did, he will have to move on. Bloom just won’t be available. So, back to the beginning. I am, optimistically, choosing to believe that Klentak has learned from his mistakes, is growing into the job, and will put together a team that makes the Playoffs.

    1. matt13…..what we know about Matt K…..he can make deals (trades)…..and at the onset of the deals they do appear very favorable….the Giles deal has turned just a bit sour, but so far so good on the JTR deal., as for Segura-the trade-off at this current time appears to favor the Phillies, in the next 3/4 years probably not, but that remains to be seen on JPC’s development..

      The situation this off-season….he is trading a lot of surplus MLB talent that is questionable in their respective individual value.
      So he may have to adjust his thinking somewhat and expect a low return on the trades.
      However, IMO, clearing the 40 of a lot of the players will prove more beneficial in the long term.

  72. The pitchers on the USA team…..first game Saturday…Nov 2nd…Netherlands, then Mexico and finally DR…top two from the group move on to Japan for the next qualifiers.
    Phillies bullpen coach, Roly de Armas, will be a national team asst…10th time for him.
    Spencer Howard and Connor Seabold should feel comfortable with Roly there.
    Bryan Price will be the pitching coach…..he has been a minor league PC for more than a decade and also Reds’ manager.
    .

    Clayton Andrews; LHP.. Brewers
    Brandon Dickson; RHP
    Parker Dunshee; RHP….Athletics
    J.P Feyereisen; RHP…. Brewers
    Brian Flynn; LHP…….. Royals
    Tanner Houck; RHP….. Red Sox
    Spencer Howard; RHP…. Phillies
    Tyler Johnson; RHP…….. White Sox
    Wyatt Mills; RHP……. Mariners
    Brooks Pounders; RHP….. Mets
    Clayton Richard; LHP;….. Blue Jays
    Connor Seabold; RHP……… Phillies
    Noah Song; RHP………… Red Sox
    Caleb Thielbar; LHP…….. Braves
    Daniel Tillo; LHP…….. Royals

  73. Sad to hear that 31 year old Mike Olt has retired from the game. Poor vision had much to do with his inability to make it as a big leaguer. I remember wanting the Phillies to acquire him from Texas when he was considered among the top 30 prospects in all of baseball. Shame. Wish him well.

  74. Agree with 8mark totally. Got to see Olt play almost all of his home games at UConn. He is a Connecticut kid who came to campus and played shortstop his freshman year. The next year he moved over to third base to make room for Nick Ahmed. Got to see Olt hit five home runs in a double header against Cincinnati. Sorry his vision problems held him back.

  75. Local kid making good….former Holy Ghost Prep HS star 3rd basemen Nolan Jones has him now into the top 50 prospects in the game. MLB.com currently tabs him 37th overall, while BA ranks him 44th and Fangraphs lists him 46th in the game
    In 2016 Phillies took Kevin Gowdy at 42 and the Indians took Jones at 55.
    That’s how it rolls sometimes.

  76. On a more inspiring note, check the Phillies twitter page….Brian Cashman’s endorsement of Joe Girardi. When you scroll down the comments, there it is – an awesome rendering of Girardi and Harper at the top step of the dugout. I just made it my lock screen wallpaper on my phone. Chills just looking at it.

    1. 8 mark I try to not say anything bad about anyone, But you took down Romus Picture on your phone, and put up Harper, All romus has done for you, and you just throw away his profile picture

  77. rocco……I see the Philies passion, and also the critical nature…. runs deep thru the family.

    Ray Moffo (@RayMoffo)
    10/25/19, 4:16 PM
    2016 Phillies 1st pick overall Mickey Moniak followed up his .252 season at AA with a .186 batting average in the Arizona Fall League…. pic.twitter.com/Z30ySM7ili

    https://twitter.com/raymoffo?s=11

    1. My nephew when to school to be a sports writer or radio sports talk show host, does some pod cast, i believe, he is at every Flyers and Phillies game. and if you think I am nuts, he is really crazy, I don’t like hockey but he is in the lockers after games doing interviews,

  78. I agree most will be unhappy but I’m confident Girardi will make the right hire and get his own guy. I hear rumblings that Rothschild will be let out of his contract and he’s a possibility.

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