Open Discussion: Week of September 16th

Weekly Discussion

Two out of four against the Braves wasn’t bad, I guess.  But dropping both games to the Red Sox hurt the Phillies chances of overtaking the Cubs or Brewers, both of whom had winning records last week.

You can’t expect to coast into a wild card berth playing .500 ball or below.  The standings are –

  1. WAS:   82-66   —
  2. CHC:   81-68   —
  3. MLW:  80-69  1.0
  4. NYM:  77-72  4.0
  5. PHL:   76-72  4.5
  6. ARZ:   76-74  5.5

I think Arizona has effectively cratered with 74 losses.  The Mets played well enough to catch and pass the Phillies.  Wouldn’t it really stink if both the Nationals and Mets qualified for the playoffs?

The Phillies’ final 14 games are as follows – @ATL (3), @CLE (3), @WAS (5), and v.MIA (3).  I think they have to win them all.

  • Chicago (13) – v.CIN (3), v.STL (4), @PIT (3), @STL (3)
  • Arizona (12) – v.MIA (3), @SD (3), v.STL (3), v.SD (3)
  • Milwaukee (13) – v.SD (4), v.PIT (3), @CIN (3), @COL (3)
  • New York (13) – @COL (3), @CIN (3), v.MIA (4), v.ATL (3)

This is the Phuture Phillies Open Discussion for Phillies and other baseball topics.

Key Dates:

  • September 8, 2019 – Coaches and players report for Instructs
  • September 9, 2019 – Instructs’ workouts begin
  • September 18, 2019 – beginning of the Arizona Fall League
  • October 12, 2019 – Arizona Fall Stars Game
  • October 26, 2019 – Arizona Fall League Championship Game
  • February 22, 2020 – First spring training game at Tigers
  • February 23, 2020 – First ST home game v. Pirates
  • March 23, 2020 – Final ST home game v. Rays
  • March 26, 2020 – Opening Day at Miami
  • April 2, 2020 – Home opener v. Milwaukee

The rosters and lists are up to date as of September 15th … 398 players in the org

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914 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of September 16th”

  1. If only it were a matter of merely adding better arms to the pitching staff…

    Unfortunately, there are bigger and broader issues facing the Phillies. The NL East may be the toughest division in MLB over the next 5 years. And to assume we finish higher than 3rd place in any one of those seasons would be foolish. 4th place is the most realistic outlook at this point. Optimism says third if the Mets continue in their ineptitude in the front office.

    Before the pitching is addressed comes a wider swath by Middleton. Who stays and who goes from within the executive suites and field staff? That is the greatest challenge he faces. Not the president or GM. The owner alone has by far the hardest decisions he’s faced since taking the controls. And it’s only partly about actual baseball skills. It’s mainly about philosophy and culture. Both need some serious tweaking if we’ve anything to look forward to in the near future.

    Sadly, with football season underway, not many people have even taken notice of the fact of the Phillies off days Friday and today. 39K plus were in attendance yesterday. Were even half of them Phillies fans? That’s Middleton’s first question to respond to.

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  2. Where I live, I get all of the Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox games. I’ve watched many of Porcella’s starts. Even when he wins, he gives up 4-5 runs. The Phillies made him look like Cy Young.

    I’m concerned with Kingery. Maybe he is only a utility player. He is trying to pull every pitch to LF and is striking out a ton. He can play six positions on the field but he can’t hit like Moffo’s Uncle Cesar.

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    1. He’s been told he has to hit homers and swing up. He’s constantly chasing high fastballs he can’t hit and he still chases off speed pitches trying to pull them. He needs to get back to what he should be, a line drive up the middle hitter. It’s a system philosophy that must change.

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      1. I agree that Kingery may benefit most from the ouster of this manager, unless the company line remains “swing up, swing hard” (as in, let’s pull every pitch) once the new skipper is named. How much Uncle Charlie has to say about it remains to be seen.

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  3. Friday Sept 20th Spencer Howard is due to make his initial start for the Scottsdale Scorpions against the Glendale Desert Dogs……featuring prospects from the Dodgers, Brewers, Cardinals, Reds and WSox organizations..

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  4. Ken Rosenthal was on MLB Network last night as was Girardi. They put Girardi in a sound proof room so they could talk about potential manager changes. They went division by division. Bochy is obviously retirning and Green from the Padres is likely out.

    Ken felt 3 managers from the NL East were in jeopardy of being replaced. Calloway Mattingly (because he is getting $2.5 million) and Kapler.

    He also felt the marriage between Madden and the Cubs is over.

    The big question as he put is manager salary and managers as puppets (my words) because clubs have gone the opposite direction of paying managers $2.5 Plus million

    If he had a guess he thought either Madden or Girardi end up in a Phillies uniform next year.

    But again the lipstick on a pig analogy still applies. Our 25 man is not that good nor is there much to point to in the farm right now as immediate or near immediate help. So just changing the manager isn’t going to improve us all that much.

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    1. DMAR…on the other hand….if the Phillies played the Marlins like the rest of the division things would be different today.
      Phils vs Marlins……7-9
      Braves vs Marlins..15-4
      Nats vs Marlins……13-3
      Mets vs Marlins……11-4

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      1. I beat this drum in the offseason, and it’s pretty frustrating to see the Phillies results vs the marlins compared to the rest of the NL East. With as atrocious as the Pitching has been at times, imho, they should be in the lead for the 2nd WC, and things likely playout differently with a lead, vs trailing. Anyways , I’d like to see the WC contenders vs the marlins, it will be less games but I bet it will explain a good portion of that “games back” totals. You can’t hand the marlins 20% of win totals and expect to make the playoffs

        For those looking to fire Kapler, this is the position to stand from. I’d give him another half season unless the clubhouse wants him gone. Carlos Santana stat lines are also an indicator, bullpen warm up/readiness, and why Rodriguez has gotten so much playing time. Personally I think he handles the media correctly, to protect/cover for his players, so I’m sure they appreciate that.

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      2. Romus I say re-play the tape. On last weeks thread a few are saying Klentak had a great offseason. I say otherwise. Start with Harper as it is pretty clear to me the Phillies were bidding against themselves. Not entirely Klentaks fault (Middleton). When an owner falls in love with a player its usually not good. It won’t be good for the Angels either just watch. Their only claim to fame will be to say “hey we have the best player in baseball come out and watch us lose with him”

        Harper is a really good player I don’t want to take anything away from him or beat the dead horse but he and his contract are examples of a team desperate to draw fans instead of winning. Hype over substance.

        Segura trade they get no credit. He’s an ok player and sure he improved the production at the position but let’s face it it was necessitated by the bad move to sign Santana the year prior.

        Realmuto-Forget that he is the best catcher in baseball. You had to give up your #1 pitching prospect to get him. The production again is good but its not MVP production. And you’re going to have to pay big to keep him. A great trade was the Brewers getting Yelich.

        The rest of his moves were moves a 5th grader could make.

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        1. Klentak overvalued/banked on Velasquez, Eflin, and Pivetta plus Eickhoff’s return from injury with substandard velocity to begin with. This whole scenario was IMO his greatest miscalculation. One or maybe two, I can see. But all of them? Uh-uh. And all because of FIP peripherals. That’s one thing if they’re established bonafide major league starting pitchers. Klentak wasn’t even close here.

          The JTR trade was and still is in my estimation a sound move. Too many shadows surrounding Sixto for my comfort.

          I agree about the Segura deal. A necessity born of the ill conceived Santana signing 2 off seasons ago. Segura gives you a reliable slash line, meaning his production is fairly predictable. He’s trade bait once Stott is ready.

          I don’t think anyone can blame anyone for signing Harper, whatever the contract. Let’s face it. Had they not signed him or Machado (who we agree wasn’t a fit here) the public relations implications would have been off the charts in this town.

          They overpaid for Cutch. Yet the loss of both his presence and production had the 2nd biggest impact on the 2019 Phillies.

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          1. I remember watching Dan O’Dowd in the offseason when the talk of signing a big FA was non-stop and it was assumed the Phillies should or were going to nab one of Harper or Machado.

            He was one of the few that suggested they not and that they spend that money in aggregate over the likes of a Brantley, Corbin, Ottavino, Moustakas Marwin Gonzalez and a few others.

            I believe they showed on the screen his scenario in which less than $300 million could be spent on shorter term packages and still leave flexibility for the 2020 class or some MiLB players to come up and further improve the club.

            Not saying I agreed as I know I was of the mindset that we either needed both MM and BH or don’t bother because just 1 wasn’t going to fix the problems of 2018.

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        2. John Middleton fell in love with Jake Arrieta. If Klentak valued Kuechel at 6mil/ year, then you know Middleton wanted Jake signed(25mil/ year AAV). And that is an issue. John Middleton wants to be known as the Steinbrenner of the NL East, and I am afraid that means having an oversized say in personnel decisions.

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      3. Tac3/DMAR…..you make valid points and for the most part based on the current team’s record, they are correct.
        Kapler, as Ken Rosenthal states may be on the hot seat, along with another 5/6 managers.
        Klentak’s off-season moves…have to admit, the four seem to have worked well for each’s individual stats…Cutch was on his way to at least a 3 or even maybe 3.5fWAR season, assuming in the second half he would have slowed a bit..
        Pitching….well that was the real sore spot..starters and the health of the bullpen arms.
        I am hoping Middleton falls in love with Gerrit Cole as he did Harper…at least that is a start if it comes about.

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  5. Just going to present some data on an interesting comp between two top 10 Phillies prospects who were both very good defensive Center Fielders in their age 21 season in Reading. I am just presenting data. You make your own conclusions.

    Phils Prospect A: (age 21 season): .307/.362/.760 (OPS), 13.9% K rate, 6.1% BB rate
    Phils Prospect B: (age 21 season): .252/.303/.741 (OPS), 22% K rate, 6.5% BB rate

    Phils Prospect A (away from Reading): .287/.338/.689 (OPS) 15.8% K rate, 5.3% BB rate
    Phils Prospect B (away from Reading): .229/.287/.706 (OPS) 23.1% K rate, 7.5% BB rate

    A (vs opposite handed pitchers): .307/.361/.773 (OPS) 15.2% K rate, 5.2% BB rate
    B (vs opposite handed pitchers): .252/.277/.699 (OPS) 27.7% K rate, 3.5% BB rate

    Again, just presenting data. You make your own conclusions.

    Phils Prospect A: Carlos Tocci
    Phils Prospect B: Mickey Moniak

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    1. sorry, typo in the above…”vs opposite handed pitchers” should say “vs same sided pitchers” meaning it is Tocci vs. RHP and Moniak vs LHP. Sorry for the typo. I noticed it after I hit Post. i don’t think that it changes the comp, but I wanted to clarify.

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      1. I truly believe Left Handed hitters are going to be evaluated much differently than RH batters going forward if shifts continue to be allowed.

        7/10 OPS leaders are RH or Switch Hitters…14/20 average leaders are RH or Switch.

        Lefty on Lefty crime is always going to be skewed because they still don’t see as much LHP as they do RHP. And again you don’t ever see a SS out in shallow LF on a shift against a RHB.

        You say make your own conclusion but clearly you are being coy by presenting the data. What is your conclusion? Comparing MM to Tocci is apples and oranges IMO.

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          1. One difference bewteen the two CFers… ISO….Tocci’s was .071 (including his age22 and 23 seasons in the minors)…..Moniak’s is currently .134…..triples alone MOniak has more 22-20 in almost half the minor league games.
            The power is with Moniak…the contact ability probably is with Tocci.

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          2. I could be wrong but I think because they are two very different hit tool players starting with side of the plate and strength and size…

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            1. They are both 6’2″. Moniak is stronger than Tocci, who still is listed at 160 unbelievably. But Moniak is not built like a tank. He is unlikely to be 235 like Trout (who is also 6’2″). But i have never read something that suggests side of the plate impacts hit tool. Or that LH hitters have a better chance at a hit tool than RH hitters. Contact rates matter. Walks matter. But agreed, strength matters and Moniak is stronger and weighs more than Tocci. That said, look at the hit tool metrics of the two at the same age and same level.

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            2. V1 maybe you’re right. I’m no analyst or math wiz. Someone who is might start to look at how shifts are effecting LHB production.

              The most natural swing for any batter in general is to pull but we know there are anomalies that exist in the league. Both right and left. But I don’t think that I am that far off the mark when I say shifts have a more profound effect on LHB than RHB.

              When I saw Moniak this year at Trenton I was really surprised at the shifts they were putting on him and Haseley over the 3 games I saw.

              Moniak made good hard contact in that series however I noticed there isn’t a lot of loft in his swing. You and I probably grew up watching a lot of LHB’s getting hits through the hole with a man on 1st. That is no more.

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  6. Career
    WAR
    2.6
    10.2
    AB
    552
    2855
    H
    157
    793
    HR
    11
    43
    BA
    .284
    .278
    R
    69
    399
    RBI
    64
    246
    SB
    9
    80
    OBP
    .339
    .353
    SLG
    .406
    .380
    OPS
    .745
    .734
    OPS+
    92
    97 just saying Not bad for a guy everyone hates

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  7. I know we talk a lot about how close the Phillies are to being legit contenders. I’ve been a proponent of firing Kapler, keeping Klenak, and indifferent to MacPhail. After re-looking at the big picture, I’m not sure there’s a way to spin it that justifies keeping any of them. I’m also not sure the best path forward is pushing all the chips to the center of the table. I’m not talking about what I think Middleton will do, but rather what he should do. Let’s take a look:

    – In 2018, the Braves finished 10 games ahead of the Phillies, Washington 2 games ahead, and the Mets 3 behind. In 2019, the Braves advantage has increased to 15.5 games, Washington to 6 games, and the Mets are ahead by a half game. Data/results prove we’ve lost ground in 2019.

    – When you look at the young (<25) star power of the 4 teams, the Braves are getting 19 WAR this year from 6 players (Acuna, Albies, Swanson, Riley, Fried, Soroka). The Nats are getting 8.7 from Robles and Soto. The Mets are getting 6.2 from Alonso, Diaz, Geiselmen, and Rosario. The Phils are getting 4.1 from Kingery, Haseley, Williams, Eflin, Suarez, Garcia, Irvin, and Dominguez.

    – Farm system rankings (roughly): Marlins 4th, Braves 7th, Nationals 21st, Phillies 25th, Mets 26th.

    – In 2018, 11 teams (including TB and Oak) finished 10+ games better than the Phillies. 6 teams finished 15+ games better. The WS Champs finished 28 games ahead. The Phils were not close.

    – In 2019, there remain 8 teams (Yes, TB and Oak remain on that list) 10+ games ahead of the Phils. They are 21+ games behind the big 3 of Hou, NYY, and LAD. The Phils are not close.

    I’m not sure the Phils are anywhere close to being more than a wildcard contender over the next 3-5 years. The gap between the Braves and Phils is significant, and growing in the wrong direction. The outlook is bleak – 2020 success is questionable at best.

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      1. Agreed, it’s our only advantage and we need to push it. We have no Acuna coming up do we had to buy Harper. And we traded for JT. We now need to spend on pitching. Our system should finally help mid season next year but not enough. Spend! The fans will come back when they feel like the team is exciting and winning games.

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      2. Remember that the Braves can not sign any Latin American players for more than $10,000 as penalty for breaking the rules. Not sure if that is for this year only or not. The Nationals may be the team to watch.

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      3. In theory yes, but good luck with that – they are almost tapped out. That was an incremental advantage (and a big one) that has been blown because almost no matter how big the payroll is, it is virtually impossible to rebuild with free agents and that’s EXACTLY what they tried to do this off season.

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        1. Well not entirely with free agents….Segura and JTR were the two trades.
          Harper, Robertson and Cutch were the big FA signings.

          Quite a bit of frustration on the board, and that is understandable.

          If Bohm comes around next season as the third baseman, and Haseley appears to be the solid MLB CFer that they could use…then it comes down to that one TOR….and Cole needs to be priority one on their list.
          Whether or not it gets them past the Braves/Nats and Mets remains to be seen.
          But that one big free agent pitcher signing is imperative.

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          1. Yes, BUT, both were mid-career players. One being paid like a FA (Segura) and one that had few cost-controlled years left and then would have to be paid like a FA. These deals were like FA deals in a way, but worse because we also gave up valuable player assets so it was actually even worse in terms of assets being surrendered to keep these players.

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            1. And that is the cost of business.
              Segura is a place holder for SDtott it loks to be now.
              JTR is the best catcher in baseball…what team wouldn;t want him!

              As to the valuable player assets….JPC really trended badly in the second half…but I still like his potential, but he is mid-twenties now so time to turn it around for him..
              Alf…..he still is a K machine and a PB/WP catcher.
              Sixto….the only one with the ‘it’ factor that could be special.

              If they can nail the Boras/Cole team this off-season…I like their chances in 2020…..AND also replace the manager.

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            2. Yes, it’s the cost of business, but that’s not the point. The point is that this current version of the Phillies’ team has been built in a way that is flawed and insufficient because the team did not do a good enough job rebuilding with young and cheap players and has had to pay a steep price for good players in the form of big time cash or young talent or both – they are burning the asset candle at both ends. They can still salvage this, but to do so, they are going to need a farm system that routinely churns out first division players and they are going to have to get creative with acquiring cheaper, younger players with upside. People think they have done a horrible job. I don’t agree with that. They’ve done an okay job, which is why the team is only okay. But okay doesn’t get it done in sports.

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  8. v1again – I know how they can save an additional 6mill. Don’t retain Alice Cooper Vargas for his 8mill and buy him out for 2mill. They can put that money toward Hernandez’ final year of arbitration pay.

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    1. I don’t think it’s a bad move, if they can sign Cole. I’d go to war with Cole, Nola, Howard, Arrietta, and Smyly. Count in healthy bullpen, and that should get them into the WC contention. Add A new pitiching and hitting coach, I’ll good to go with Kapler for 6 months. I think he’d agree that’s a fair enough evaluation time.

      The key is to get Cole for a somewhat reasonable total, and pray that the parts fit.

      Cole, Nola, Arrietta, Howard, Smyly
      Pivetta,VV, DLS, Sir Anthony, Neris in the pen + FA/trade help

      From the positional players, the hard choices come in the OF. Dickerson looks like a keeper, from when I’ve watched, but at least one of Dickerson,Bruce, & McCutchen are a luxury. Need to move 1, but which one? As cheap Bruce is…

      Cehe, Maikel, Herrera – at least 1 is gone, though klentak may need to ask Rocco’s permission first! Need to move on from 2 most likely.

      Switching to Hoskins, I’m interested to see his 2020 campaign. We may have to temper expectations on him, and if so, he may no longer be untouchable with Bohm and Stott progressing through the system. Hope that’s not the case, and I’m not saying I’d do it, but I’m at least kicking The tires mentally vs before it was an easy “No”

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  9. I have a hard time advocating the firing of Kapler, when the philosophies, pitching and hitting wise, that I have the big problem with, come from Mac/Klentak. Are they now going to hire a Manager like Joe Girardi? I don’t think so. They want a Manager who does what they tell him to. That leaves out Madden, also. And, if Middleton hires a Manager himself, why have Mac/Klentak around? I, for one, am happy with Harper. I like the way he plays, I find he plays hard and hustles, his D has been very good, and I do that deal over again. The same with JTR. He is the best C in Baseball, and for all we know, Sixto may be just as good as Kyle Drabek. You have to make that trade. Segura is hitting 30 points lower than I thought, and Cutch was a big plus. So, I can’t argue with those Klentak moves. But, the Pitching evaluations and decisions were awful. Young for Kranitz was a failure. Not getting Keuchel was a major fail. And, unless Middleton forces a change, we will lose out on SP this off season if MacPhail is allowed to dictate terms. So, before anything happens Manager wise, there has to be a clear direction set by Middleton. He needs to make it clear that this coming year, “if we win we win, if we don’t, you are all fired.”

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    1. The fate of Gabe Kapler shouldn’t be tied to the mistakes of Matt Klentak. I believe he should be fired based on the evidence of our own eyes, his mismanagement of the roster, his affection for certain players unworthy of the playing time they get, the utter lack of discipline and accountability, and as the one person who daily speaks for the ball club, offers nothing but empty platitudes, false hope and lame explanations, his LA personality doesn’t resonate with the locals.

      Now, Klentak is a mixed bag. As trader he has only shown a capacity to bargain for prime rib when he’s only paying for the meatloaf. But when it comes to spending money on free agents (notwithstanding the Harper deal of course), he tends to overpay, ie Santana and McCutchen or go market price for midlevel talent, especially pitching. What he hasn’t done so far is move outside the box in a way that remotely rattles his saber like the Luhnows and Cashmans of the world.

      As for MacPhail, I have no idea what he does beyond picking paint colors to the executive suites and serve as a wet blanket to any sense of urgency.

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      1. Actually the Phillies love Cesar for some unfathomable reason. Klentak refused to move him. Kapler had to have his arm twisted to discipline his lack of hustle and even then Cesar didn’t know he was being benched. Cesar is like fly paper to me. I can’t get him off my hands.

        As for Nick Williams, Kapler decided he wasn’t worth playing from day one. Now his value like many young players in this organization has gone to pot.

        But don’t worry, Rocco. They’ll find a way to keep your boy around next season. I can feel it.

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        1. I don’t think Williams ever accepted being a bench player, he thought it was beneath him. Kapler has a career as a bench player. I’ll bet the two of them clashed. Williams will be gone. Kapler? Not sure…

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          1. 100% and 50% respectively. Hinkie doesn’t agree with me, but I have not heard the endorsement that often comes this time of year for an embattled manager. That coupled with the Rosenthal/Geraldi/Madden discussions of late, suggests that pot is still being stirred. Two weeks to go, I’d say!

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        2. 8mark…I sensed that Gabe pegged Nick Williams and JPC together and decided he rather move on from both of them.
          Just a feeling..

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          1. rocco…if Cesar played the field like his buddy Freddy Galvis….it is a no brainer he stays and becomes…. a Benny Zobristo player.
            I think one of the knocks on Cesar…..is his lack of flexibility on defense.
            Which also makes it that much more difficult for Klentak to get what he wants for Cesar in a return trade.

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          2. Anybody with an OPS below .750 had better be bringing more to the party besides average defense (at best) at only one position, little if any baserunning instincts, and very occasional power from only the left side of the plate. Why he even bothers batting right handed is puzzling.

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            1. 8mark…his fWAR is currently 6th on the team for position players….but other than Maikel, most of all the others, are back-up or utility guys.
              J.T. Realmuto 5.7
              Bryce Harper 3.8
              Rhys Hoskins 2.7
              Jean Segura 2.6
              Scott Kingery 2.4
              Cesar Hernandez 1.9

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            2. This is the reason the team stinks. SEGURA HAS LOWER OPS. I Have a friend, who is in Atlanta ,He previous worked for the phillies. Said the scouts are so mad at the way Klentak works a scouting report, its all angles, third time around all stats, The same way people on here judge a player. So if Cesar goes what about the short stop? ..You have to look at all the things to judge a player. Amazing ,don’t use scouts, just read sabers, As long as Klentak is here this team will be bad, but you get rid of cesar it is the answer to all the problems by the way his war is 2.6 this year

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            3. You said that. Not me. I have never implied that Cesar is even a bad player, Roc. He’s probably the least of all the problems with this entire baseball operation. But his expiration date is coming fast. He’s merely a decent player whose value is negligible due to his lack of versatility and he’s replaceable. The Cubs may need a second baseman in 2020. I can see him as a fit in their lineup at a cheaper price than what the Phillies would have to pay in either arbitration or even negotiating down. At his age, he can still be quietly productive while the rest of the talent around him makes the noise in Wrigley.

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    2. I’m not sure how good a player Nick Williams would have become. He seemed to be making strides at the plate with Matt Stairs. But again, like many young players, the new math entered the picture and on top of that, the Phillies don’t seem to have a knack for developing talent. They’re current project is trying to ruin Scott Kingery.

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      1. Regarding Nick I might also add that not only did they not develop him further but they devalued him as a possible trade asset. Granted he was not going to net us anything in the Top 100 but still a young controllable athletic type player should get you something.

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  11. Good Post Buddy! Bottom Line, the re-build didn’t go well at all. Now they’re stuck with trying to spend their way out..Doesn’t look like McFail,Klentax,etc are very sharp.

    Since that is very clear by now, if I’m the owner, (Middleton) I would be getting good advice outside of the organization, and based on that and if he really has the desire to have a strong organization that competes year after year, I think that he needs to clean house..

    I would hire people from the gold standard teams and bite the bullet and start over.

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  12. The first show has dropped. Some minor league staff have been fired including the Lakewood manager, after only one year. I’m sure more moves are still to come.

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    1. When I’m weeding my garden and feeling lazy and simply what the aesthetic appearance that I have weeded my garden I pull the parts you can see and don’t go through the trouble of digging out the roots.

      That said I’m never surprised when 2 weeks later the weeds are back…

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    2. What worries me is what party/parties are doing the “weeding out” and whether the proverbial “look in the mirror” applies to the weeder.

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  13. Note: this is speculation on my part, more for general
    Conversation, so I’m Going to throw this out there:

    how much of this season’s disappointment is on Middleton? I’m saying this, as I absolutely love him as an owner (lol at least right now :). Anyways, I get the sense that Middleton pushed through MacPhail&Klentaks plan a season or two faster than was in their game plan. He wanted faster results, and In turn threw a wrench into the FO game plan. I can see McPhail and Klentak being onboard with Harper, the rest could be up for discussion. Something tells me they wanted to slow play the rebuild another 2 years, ideally for them, but Middleton turned up the heat.

    Again speculation on my part. The only potential evidence I have is the “signing Harper” documentary.

    Regardless if this hunch is right, pretty sure the temperature is turned up on all the FO, we just don’t know how hot yet.

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    1. Middleton’s reputation is at stake here. Whatever action he takes (or doesn’t) will have to be justified publicly and be consistent with his own principles of business leadership and vision. How much patience will he employ following the 4th year of this front office which has seen the farm becoming steadily barren without at least the commensurate rise in either major league wins or the division standings? My guess is that we’ll find out two weeks from today.

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  14. Adam Haseley needs to start next year in CF. At age 23, he’s holding his own as a hitter (.740 OPS, 90 OPS+) in 53 games. But the stunner is that he’s already elite as a defender with 1 dWAR. To put that into context, noted defender Jackie Bradley Jr. had his best defensive year at age 24 with 2 dWAR. Kevin Pillar had a career best 2.8 dWar at age 26. Haseley is having a better rookie year at age 23 than Brett Gardner had at age 24.

    Like

    1. He really has come on defensively and been a real revelation.

      Now is that dWAR just his play in CF (29)….or is it all three positions he has played combined?……LF-18….RF-9

      Like

      2. For a different perspective (as in, a different stat), his UZR/150 in CF puts him firmly in the second tier of defensive centerfielders. At 8.4 he’s tied for 11th (with Lorenzo Cain) among CFers with 220+ defensive innings. Notably, number 10 is well-regarded defensive wiz Kiermaier.

        What’s also worth mentioning is he has been RIDICULOUS in left. His 31.6 UZR/150 in left field not only places him first among all LFers with 130+ innings, but only one player (Detroit’s Victor Reyes at 25.1) is even within 10 of him. Number 3 on the board is CarGo at 21.5 and then there’s no one else above 19. That’s partly a product of the typical bat-first LF stereotype, but it’s also just because… well, he’s pretty good.

        Now these stats come with a SSS warning more important than most (defensive stats take notoriously long to get a clear picture). But you can only work with what you’ve got, and so far he’s been a great defender.

        His RF UZR/150 is 15.6, 17th among RFers with 60+ innings, for those curious.

        Like

  15. Ric Ocasek of the Cars gone at 75. Yeesh, didn’t realize he was that old. Early to mid-80’s were my pop music glory days. Let the good times roll!

    Like

    1. 80s music is the best. The 80s on 8 channel on Sirius is my first choice.

      What I can’t believe is Ocasek had Paulina Porizkova as his wife. It’s good to be a rock star.

      Like

      1. Hah….the lead singers…Gene Simmons….Ozzy Osbourne……Jeff Lynne….Mick.
        All with the beauties.
        The gals like their voices I suppose.

        Like

      2. 1st Wave is where I usually go on Sirius. I was too young to catch that stuff the first time around but much respect to Ric. He also produced one of the best albums of the 90s, Weezer’s debut.

        Like

      3. I remember as a kid not knowing any of the coaches on baseball teams and starting feeling older when I started to recognize the names.

        Now my son just said the same thing to me, he is recognizing the coaches and feeling older.

        I.e. Peanuts Lowrey.

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    2. The Cars were great. One of my top 3 bands of all time (Talking Heads and Roxy Music are the other two). I preferred Benjamin Orr led songs, but no doubt, Ric Ocasek had a unique sound. I was also surprised to find out he was 75 YO.
      Also sorry to see Eddie Money die a few days earlier.

      This is probably my favorite Cars song.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsPh-EgH65M

      .

      Back to baseball … I still expect Chris Young to be fired and Gabe Kapler back. Klentak is a lock to return (even though I called him out for his lack of “out of the box” moves over the weekend). Hopefully Klentak and Kapler learn from this season and grow as GM and manager.

      Like

      2. Well if we’re talking about the Cars – I’ve always loved this song. The Cars were always my guilty pleasure band but not that guilty.

        Like

        2. Poriskova is still one of the most beautiful women you’ll ever see… Google her SI swimsuit shoot earlier this year and prepare to be floored at what a 53 year old woman can look like.. WOW…

          Like

      3. I’m older than most of you and everyone seems to seek music of their generation, but Barry Manilow (I know, I know, schlocky to the max.) has a legitimate question: What happened to melody?

        For me, it’s the Great American Songbook, Ella and Frank, the young Philadelphia rockers of the late 50s, and a strong dose of 60s folk and hard-drinking’ messed-up lives country and western.

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    4. 75 is so young when you get to be Romus age, Romus told me he saw Babe Ruth in new York in 1933 at Nathan hot Dogs. I wish I could have meet the babe. did meet Mickey Mantle but I was still in diapers in the sixties.

      Like

  16. Two weeks from today, the decision must be made by the owner to:

    A) Keep MacPhail and give him full authority to decide the fate of K&K

    B) Fire MacPhail, and hire a new president to decide the fate of K&K

    C) Fire MacPhail and Klentak, and allow your new president to hire a new GM and decide on Kapler

    D) Fire all 3 and start over.

    E) Keep MacPhail but mandate he fires both K&K

    F) Keep MacPhail but mandates he fire Kapler

    I suspect he will do F, but I would go with D.

    Funny that I believe Klentak is the longest tenured GM in Philly?

    Like

  17. I see that the Phillies are starting to let go some of their minor league coaches. There needs to be more done. Too many players regressed, especially the pitchers( Adonis Medina, Jo Jo Romero), three of their soft tossing lefties either missed the entire year( Nick Fanti), or missed most of the year( Kyle Young and Bailey Falter). I understand that injuries happen. But are these injuries and regressions a result of either overuse or hitters adapting to the pitching, or the result of the altering of mechanics in order to add a couple MPH to the fastball?

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    1. I’d like to know who hired the minor league coaches that they’re now letting go. Maybe he needs to go if he hasn’t already. Rhys Hoskins and Dylan Cozens dominated at Reading back in 2016. What Phillies prospects have dominated at any level since, or before for that matter? Maybe Aaron Nola in 2015? Dom Brown in 2010-11…maybe? Hasn’t been a pretty picture.

      Like

      2. What prospect has dominated at any level?
        2018 Luis Garcia in the GCL .369/.433/.488. I think he was voted the top prospect in the league.

        Like

  18. I vote D, time to clean house and start over with new management. Just because you start over with new management,does NOT mean that it will take longer to become a gold standard organization, truth be told, I think it expedites it!

    At this point, what do you have to lose? Again,we are far away,maybe 15 to 20 games or so.

    Like

  20. I don’t know how many of you work in “corporate America”, but MacPhail strikes me as the big shot VP at work that is a year or two away from retirement who spends 20% of his day at work sleeping and the other 80% kissing the $&@#& of his boss so he can hang on for that last year or two. But when something good happens, he’s always suddenly front and center for the photo opp.

    The only thing this organization can really say they did successfully over the past 5 years was inject the franchise with analytics capability. I’m sorry to say though that it’s the equivalent of saying in 2001 “we signed up for the internet”. Great, the Phils signed up for analytics. That’s great but at the end of the day, no player goes home after a game and says “thank god I had those analytics to make me successful”. Players are people too and they want to feel valued, treated fairly, and like their manager and coaches. When is the last time anyone has seen Gabe and one of his players talking in the dugout, sharing a laugh? When’s the last time you heard a Phillie in an interview, say something good unsolicited about Kapler, Klentak, or MacPhail?

    Somebody yesterday responded to my post saying the Phils advantage is money and their going to use it. That means we are the Marlins with money – rather than being lousy, we can buy our way to mediocre. The exact inverse of Tampa and Oakland – broke teams that are so brilliant they don’t even need money. They’re so smart they can’t even be average. We can’t just accept the money argument is going to solve everything. The money, should also be what buys the Phillies a better president, a better GM, a better manager, a better coaching staff, a better minor league development team, a better scouting department, better facilities, better analytics, better everything. Worst of all, as Hinkie and others have stated, during this rebuild they have not done ANYTHING creative to exploit the resources they possess that so many of their competitors lack.

    I hate to say it my good friends, but this is no longer a rebuild, this is the new normal, until the owner decides he wants something better.

    Like

    1. Wow, you nailed it, Buddy B. That might be the post of the year. And Middleton may have been more prophetic than we thought when he spoke of stupid money. Only not in a good way.

      Like

    2. A lot of fair points from where I’m standing. The money should be what puts the Phillies over the top, not hovering between average and contending, but rather contending and WS favorites. Sooo basically the Dodgers.

      On the flip side, money can also be negative, you can bury a teams Movement up the ladder. Look at how Howard’s contract impacted 2012 and beyond. I’m not going to go down the rabbit hole on this, we all lived it, still love the big guy for the good years.

      Its a work in progress, so will see. In the corporate world, this season is a lot like a yearly sales plan … sooner or later the results needs to be there, were running out track.
      How many missed sales plans do you get? Lol … some of us know this answer, and Macphail will know soon enough.

      I think expectations need to be tempered, even with signing Cole, next year’s goal is to get into the playoffs, but i wouldn’t expect to make hay. They need 2 more solid off seasons, prospects to develop and get big league time, and beef up the bullpen again. 2021 for me, but I’ll certainly take it earlier!

      Like

  21. Buddy, great post! I can’t really argue. I am one of those who thinks Middleton spending this off season gets us into contention. But, I may be engaging in wishful thinking. I want the Playoffs next year, heck I wanted them this year, and I am willing to buy our way there. The evaluations of talent and development practices of our team are below par. The Dodgers are a big money team, and they have an excellent developmental program. There is no reason any team in the league should be better than we are at building and sustaining a franchise. The only excuse is Front Office ineptness.

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    1. matt13…finishing 4th as it stands right now, and possibly losing 8 or 9 of the next 11 games to the Braves, Indians and Nats, will dictate that Middleton will make the necessary changes immediately post-season.
      I am assuming Kapler will be relieved of his duties along with some portion of his staff.

      As for talent evaluations……I still see the talent in the lower minors that have solid MLB potential. It is the development that will need to be tightened up….and maybe this latest Driveline philosophy is the key.
      Bonifay has seen it in action from the past, and seems to be on board with it and its beneficial results in other orgs….will see.
      .

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  23. For me I can’t help but think or pay attention to what a team like the Astro’s has done. It really is quite remarkable and it started with Jim Crane identifying a guy no one had ever heard of in normal circles Jeff Luhnow.

    They haven’t been perfect either during their rebuild phase. They missed on Appel and that one other pitcher I can’t remember but heck this Yordan Alvarez Kid looks pretty darn good again for next to nothing. They basically stole Gerrit Cole and their ability or persistence to land Verlander was outstanding.

    They will likely lose Springer but they have Tucker waiting in the wings and Whitley if they lose Cole.

    They went against the grain of their own clubhouse to get Osuna but it was one problem child for another and as bad a dude he might have been in Toronto you haven’t heard a bad thing about him since.

    I could go on and on but the point is how can you sit here and think that McPhail and Klentak are on par with those guys? I mean do you really need another year to come to that conclusion. I don’t…

    It’s why I’m not even calling for Kapler or Young to be fired any longer.

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  24. So, let’s say Middleton comes to the realization spelled out so well by Buddy B. What then might be an obstacle to his taking drastic measures? Loyalty? A sense of invested trust in his circle of counsel that he’s not inclined to turn away from. Or the fear of the unknown in starting from scratch?

    Let’s hope he rather acts from his passion to win, and nothing else.

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  25. If I’m Middleton…how can he trust McFail/ Klentax enough to spend more and go over the luxury tax with the current results? And if he looks around and sees teams with a FAR lower payroll be so successful? Plus if he consults with people outside of the organization and they verify what we’re seeing?

    Therein is your answer!

    Like

    1. I forget. Barf were you the one that one or two weeks ago said you were banning yourself until the manager was fired, or was it some one else? If you were it is good that you don’t let that limit you if you have something worth posting.

      Like

  26. I still think Klentak gets another year. I believe Middleton tells him to apply what he did this past off season to boost the offense, to the Pitching this off season. Don’t forget, he just was rewarded with a 3 year extension. This is not what I would do. I would say sayonara to MacPhail today, and let the new President makes his picks. But, I don’t think that is what happens. On a brighter note, I know very little about Ethan Lindow, but Josh Bonifay just called him a “special Pitcher.” I sure hope so. Bohm, Stott, Howard and Lindow, and a few others give us some hope.

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  27. I don’t think Middleton will fire Mcphail or Klentak. He stood up there in spring training saying what a great offseason they had. The moves to pick up Bruce and Dickerson were good ones. Unfortunately they overvalued the young starters’ potential, as did many others who picked Pivetta as s break out star. We all knew they needed a veteran starter who was good and they stopped trying after Happ signed. It’s hard to fault them for the Herrera situation or all of the bullpen injuries. They decided to not spend assets on getting pen arms and went to the reject pile instead. When you hear that it would have cost Moniak for a few months of an arm, you can understand that decision. That just have to be able to do a better job of development in the minors. Of interest, the LHV pitching coach was let go. How many arms improved in AAA this year?? The Driveline process needs another full year to evaluate it. One positive is that the big club’s base running and defense was better. It doh did silly but JT has been helped by much improved tagging methods at 2b. That has been an improved skill by Cesar this year. Our 1b coach is a keeper. Will they keep Kapler? I hope not but I think they will unless Charlie reports back that he should go.

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  28. Whatever it takes to “steal” some personnel from LAD, NYY, or HOU, Middleton should explore those avenues. Bonifay from the Astros is already in the fold. To what extent his fingerprints are on what’s been going on (or not) recently – good or bad – I would assume he’ll get more time to establish his mark.

    As much as I don’t want to reboot and wait, I agree with Buddy as well that a clean sweep of the front office may very well bring about a quicker turn around than if Middleton plodded with incremental changes from year to year and we suffer the same results. Let’s hope Johnny Cigars is listening to people who know better…outside the organization.

    Like

  29. Not baseball related but congrats to my sisters good friend Sarah Thomas on being the first person to swim the English Channel four times. My brother in law is an endurance swimmer (they are not normal humans!). Headed to Arizona tomorrow for some fall ball…

    Like

    2. All this achievement makes me sick to my stomach – lol – just kidding. Congrats on Spencer’s AFL debut and to your family and friends. I’ve got 5 of my own, including an Army officer and a med school student, so it’s fun to watch them go off and succeed.

      Like

      2. The plan was for Spencer to come in to my company and take over for me so I can retire…I guess he has other plans!!

        Like

        1. Sometimes the best laid plans go awry. Do you have any other kids? Nephews? Nieces? Acquaintances who might be interested in taking over the company?

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          1. My daughter has no interest but my two nephews are already here. It’s a family business called Howard Products. Wood care products etc. Home Depot, Lowe’s, Ace all carry it…

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            2. I guess as a dad. I would love my kid to take over my business. But to have a son this close to the majors. I think is better, Good Luck ,I think Sworks romus used you wood products to try to grow hair.. I Don’t know the results.

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            4. rocco/8mark…I will have you know my doc who did my hair …Dr Carnabucci of Phila….was the doctor who also did Frank Sinatra’s bodyguards…and the bamboo just grows wild! 🙂

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    3. Yes!!!! Unbelievable accomplishment, Almost unimaginable!! How can anyone swim for more than two days straight in those type of cold, strong-tide waters?

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  31. As I’ve stated a number of times already … Gabe Kapler is not the biggest reason for this season of mediocrity. I would only replace him if John Middleton was completely cleaning house (starting with Andy MacPhail). MacPhail has set the tone. He is waaaay too lax/disconnected/unaggressive. MacPhail, in turn, went out and hired a GM who is very much like him. Matt Klentak is very vanilla, cautious, and lacks imagination. For me, the only “out of the box” move he’s ever made was hiring Gabe Kapler, despite not having any real managerial experience.
    IMO John Middleton should cut bait (make him an advisor if it makes you feel better) with MacPhail and chase Chaim Bloom this offseason like he hunted Bryce Harper last winter. Bloom would be an absolute Grand Slam (!) hire. He’s currently VP of Baseball Operations in Tampa. Middleton could offer him MacPhail’s old title of Team President/GM. Bloom is the opposite of MacPhail. He is young (36 YO), aggressive, wins w/o big market resources, and is from Philadelphia. He is a student of analytics, but also has a background in scouting and development. It would be like replacing Howard Cunningham with Fonzie (for all you Happy Days fans).
    The ironic part of this scenario is MacPhail passed on Bloom in favor of his mini-me (Klentak) four years ago. Hire Bloom and let him decide what to do with Klentak and Kapler.

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    1. Hinkie, I am on board with your Bloom idea.

      Now where we differ – as I have also posted several times, I don’t hold Kapler responsible for the less than satisfying season. However, his inadequacies as a manager stand alone, apart from the deficiencies of his roster, which Klentak stands accountable. In any case, Bloom would likely hire a GM who gets to pick his own manager. So Kapler’s fate would likely be to get swept away with Klentak and MacPhail. MacPhail will probably be shifted to an advisory role as a soft landing.

      Like

    2. This sounds like a good plan. They will probably kick Andy Macphail somewhere else in the organization. I don’t care so long as he steps out of the immediate chain of command above the general manager. They have been too conservative in terms of their unwillingness to think out of the box. The overall strategy has been fine, but they have been pretty mediocre on the details such as identifying and developing talent. A good plan with mediocre execution typically doesn’t turn out that well.

      Like

    3. Hinkie,,,,you want to go from a Dartmouth guy to a Yale guy………sheeesh! 🙂

      But there is one big plus….Bloom has his roots in Philly…. and a one time Jewish day school kid from Philadelphia who loves to eat gefilte fish.

      Like

  32. Hinkie, I am with you. Great post, and Bloom would be a terrific hire. Very similar move, if Middleton does this, to when Lurie fired Chip Kelly. He admitted he was wrong, saw the problems, didn’t keep him because he had just made him the personnel czar and would be embarrassed to fire him so fast, and just did it because it was the right move, He was rewarded with a Super Bowl. Yes, Middleton praised the FO for the off season, but they, clearly, screwed up on evaluating Pitching, had another chance to alleviate some of the mistakes by signing Keuchel, went dumpster diving for BP help when injuries decimated the BP, and missed a great opportunity to make the Playoffs. Middleton can point to a lot changing since the season started and make a great move.

    Like

    1. Yes. The move would be similar to the LAD’s hiring 37 YO Andrew Friedman from the Rays in 2014 as President of Baseball Operations. Look what he’s done in Los Angeles. I think Bloom could have similar success in Philadelphia.
      Just look at some of what Bloom has accomplished in Tampa. He’s put together a team that competes for a playoff spot in a division where they have to play the NYY’s and BoSox 36 (?) times per season. He does that while working on a shoestring budget. While there, Tampa has developed some outstanding young arms (Blake Snell and Jose Alvarado are/have been two of my favorite pitchers in MLB). Bloom has also done well in trades. He fleeced Neal Huntington last summer when he sent Pittsburgh Chris Archer for Austin Meadows, Tyler Glassnow, and Shane Baz [“Are you kidding me?”]).
      Like I said above … Chaim Bloom would be a Grand Slam hire for the Phillies!

      Like

      1. Also … while Klentak passed on Charlie Morton this winter, Bloom was all over him. He guaranteed Morton 30 million over two seasons. In all fairness to Klentak though, he may have been hamstrung in his pursuit of Morton by the 75 million dollars he had already promised Jake Arrieta the previous winter. 🙂

        Like

    1. Wow…glad that prospective trade never came to fruition. Really sobering how messed up some of these kids are, no matter how talented on the field.

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      1. I’m thinking Neal Huntington’s days as Pirates GM are numbered. At last summer’s trade deadline, he gave up the farm for Chris Archer. This summer he wouldn’t accept Keibert Ruiz (and at least one young arm) for Vazquez. If he holds on to his job, GM’s are going to be circling like vultures to make a deal with him.

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        1. Would appear Huntington may be on thin ice….but the Pirates do believe in stability to a fault.
          Clint Hurdle has been there almost a decade now.

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      2. He better have saved some money, because he’s gonna have trouble finding ANY job now.

        I believe in giving people second chances if they’ve paid their dues to society, but I admit stuff along these lines I’m biased and can never actually let go of it.

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        1. I too believe in second chances but not when you’re a predator taking advantage of innocent kids. Nothing gets me more riled up than violence/exploitation against kids and babies.

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        2. All of a sudden Kyle Crick has become a hero in Pittsburgh, and to think this off-season they probably were going to move him out……and its only been two weeks since the Vasquez fight

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    3. Vazquez is toast. He’s going to go away for a long time. If for some reason he gets cleared of all charges, he’s going to get cut and he will never wear a baseball uniform again. He’s not getting a second chance after this.

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      1. Yes. Second chances are still subject to judicial process and time. In Vazquez’s case, between now and then will be a very long time, probably after he’d be effective any longer as a pitcher. It’s not even worth speculating. He’s thrown his last pitch in a major league uniform.

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        1. Luke Heimlich, former Oregon pitcher, a probably a first rounder last year, has had to relocate. MLB teams do not want to touch him

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  34. Interesting speculation from Bob Nightengale….

    Might Gabe Kapler be Bruce Bochy’s successor based on his association with Zaidi from their LAD days?

    David Ross will presumably replace Joe Madden, who in turn may wind up here or with the Mets.

    Don Mattingly to San Diego?

    Mike Matheny to KC?

    Potentially 10 managerial openings, including Bochy’s.

    Like

      2. In my ideal front office, the GM should not have hiring responsibility for manager and coaching staff. Both GM and MGR should report directly to team president (or VP of baseball ops, whatever the title). I understand that more clubs are preferring their field skippers be in lock step with upper management, but when the GM has leverage over the manager, I think it doesn’t bode well for the checks and balances of power. That’s just my opinion….

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        1. Of course the GM and manager need to be in regular communication but when it comes to the decision making process, 3 heads are better than 2 heads banging.

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    1. Wow, Romus….so much so that guess who he’s got starting at 3b and LF? That’s right – Sean Rodriguez and Jose Pirela, both over Adam Haseley. Yep, Gabe’s all in.

      Like

    2. All kidding aside, I can’t wait for the end of the Sean Kapler Experience. And while I realize Todd Zolecki has to write something, can’t he post something other than Gabe’s thoughts on how we’re going to see the Phillies “at their best” down the stretch. First of all, it’s about 2 weeks too late. Secondly, he’s insulting the intelligence of any fan with the brains of a gnat. Thirdly, not playing Haseley is managerial malpractice and a practical contradiction to being all in, no matter how minuscule their playoff chances. Even playing Rodriguez over Franco is an utter disgrace. Defending Kapler on any front is nonsense. His analytics has become nothing but a front for his personal biases against certain players.

      Like

  36. Love the comments on hiring Bloom,etc. great posts on this subject..Now we’re on the right track!! I would have far more confidence on someone like him to right this ship ,instead of somewhat sticking to the status quo.

    We are now speaking the same language!!

    Like

  37. Hinkie, I don’t believe, at all, that the Harper signing in any way stopped Middleton from approving a contract for Charlie Morton. That was the result of Klentak and MacPhail deciding that only Corbin was better than what we had, and they nixed the term that Corbin got. And, I know there are some who would argue that Corbin was overpaid by that last year by the Nats, and they loaded, as they often do, a lot of money on that last year. I disagree, and would have signed him regardless, but there is at least an argument. There was no argument to failing to get Morton, or any one else. And, then they doubled down on their mistake, and passed on Keuchel in June. Coupled with MacPhail’s comments, that equate to Chip Kelly dissing the Christmas party, Middleton has ample reason to move on. Then the next guy, Chaim Bloom, hires an exec to be GM and they hire a Manager, and Kapler is not scapegoated for what was mostly the fault of those above him.

    Like

  38. Checking in on ex-Phils, career year for Carlos Santana: .280/.398/.527 34 HR 4.4 WAR

    Among Phillies position players, only Realmuto has more WAR this year, and just barely (4.5)

    Like

    1. And the Phillies, with their advanced analytics, knew he was due for a rebound, as he had a career-low BABIP in 2018 of .231, and it rebounded this year to .288

      In terms of value, $60 million for three years of Santana will have turned out not to be an over-pay (he’s at 6.1 WAR so far through almost two years, likely ends up with 9 or more total for the three years). Now, whether Klentak should have done it with Hoskins waiting in the wings is another story . . .

      Like

        1. It was a lost season and they traded the contract so little harm on the money front. But surrendering the pick and other picks will have a definite cost over time.

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    1. …which begs the question – with his injury history, is CD now too great of a health risk to command even 3/$30M? That may work in the Phillies favor if they like him as a platoon player.

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      1. 8mark…I question the money that he will command on the open market. wherein the Phillies have surplus OFers and he will need tp be squeezed into a part-time role .
        BTW….he has played in over 425 games in the three years prior to this season…..so he is not as much of a health risk as most players….well no where near Roman Q.

        Like

      2. All you need is 1 team to think Dickerson can start, and he’s gone.

        Not only that, Cutch didn’t sign with the Phillies to be in a platoon. He was playing well before he got hurt. This isn’t fantasy baseball. Cutch (and his agent) will be pissed and the Phillies will have to deal with the ramifications of that considering that he’s still owed $40M for the next 2 years. This is not the same as platooning a rookie or a player still in arbitration. You can screw over those guys as much as you want. But when you screw over a veteran FA, other players (and prospective FAs) notice.

        Like

    2. My prediction is that if Klentak stays in power, they won’t sign Corey Dickerson, but they should. He will become the latest example of the Phillies’ problems with scouting their own players. I hope I’m wrong, but I doubt they sign him and I suspect he will hit like gangbusters next year and we’ll be having discussions about him next July and August as one who got away. Another one.

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      2. He’s a good player, but the Phillies OF is crowded and he’s going somewhere else. Much like when the Indians let Michael Brantley walk because he got expensive. This will NOT be the last time that the Phillies will have to make a hard choice. Every team goes through this and that’s the nature of baseball.

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        1. Yes, the problem is they so frequently make the wrong choice when presented with a set of hard choices. That’s when heads roll.

          Like

  40. Keuchel looks really sharp again tonight. Struck out Bryce on 2 Change ups he didn’t come close to hitting. I hope Middleton is watching, and he is as p’d as I am that Keuchel hasn’t been here. Yep, he wasn’t any better than what we had! What a monumental misjudgment. We were 33-27 when Cutch got hurt. That was, I think, about June 3. I am not sure when Keuchel signed with Atlanta, but not much longer after that. We have gone 43-45 since Cutch’s injury, under .500, if my math holds up. If we had gotten Keuchel, we would be in the first WC spot, not an also ran in 4th place in our own Division. I would fire the whole crew just for that.

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    1. This post did not age well.

      Not that the overall point (we should have signed Keuchel after his draft pick compensation was removed) isn’t valid, just funny how a pitcher can look good for most of the game, but get rocked in one inning and suddenly his entire outing looks bad.

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      1. Good morning Dan, I thought I had posted a message that I was not responding or disagreeing with your post. I was posting before I had a chance to read yours. I must not have it send or done something else. I still wanted Keuchel despite that bad inning, and I think that we made a huge mistake not signing him.

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        1. Yeah, that’s still a valid opinion. He’s had a good (half) year for the Braves and would be an upgrade over pretty much everyone in our rotation. Even Nola has some bad outings (more this year than last, for some reason…). Just funny how fickle baseball can be.

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  41. It doesn’t matter that we got him for 5 runs. My opinion remains the same. Keuchel pitched 17 games with an ERA well under 4. Much better than anyone we have not named Nola.

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  43. Let’s add a legit closer to our wish list this Christmas. Hector got the save tonight but nearly gave up the lead…again. He’s not a closer.

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  44. Just watched a 3 minute video interview with Chaim (I believe it’s pronounced Ha-yim?) Bloom. Very impressive 36 year old who seems very comfortable in his own skin and down to earth. As per Hinkie’s suggestion, Middleton would do well to snag a guy with his resume and pedigree with a top 5 MLB organization in Tampa. The Mets interviewed him before they hired BVW – another typical Mets mistake. Woo him to come here before a club like the Red Sox do. The financial resources are here for him to be more aggressive than what he’s got with the Rays, naturally. If Middleton wants to offer MacPhail a gratis advisory position, fine. Bloom as a club president who is already very well versed in analytics may be agreeable to keep (and work well in tandem with) Klentak as a GM who needs to be seasoned by someone with the chops to get things done.

    Make the move, Johnny!

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  45. Catching up to all this great commentary:

    On Bloom, I love the idea Hinkie and totally agree with what others have said.

    On MacPhail, I think the Phillies problem is when they hired him they asked him to take the organization forward to where other good teams were in 2014. The problem is now we’re in 2014 and it’s 2019. MacPhail skated to where the puck was rather than where it was going.

    On pitching, the Phils had a plan to have a great September / October rotation:
    1 Nola – coming off 2018, he would be a 20 game winner.
    2 Pivetta OR Velasquez OR Eflin – with a great new pitching coach leading the way, one of these high potential young arms would surge forward as a legit #2.
    3 – With all the success of the farm system, the Phils would acquire a young, controllable ToR arm at the deadline.
    4 – Arrieta – a rock solid year of 200+ innings – the staff workhorse and mentor to young pitchers
    5 – Out of the other 2 young arms under #2 above plus the 6 arms at AAA (Anderson, Eickhoff, Suarez, Romero, DeLosSantos, Irvin), one of the 8 would emerge as a strong 5th starter.

    So what happened? Pretty much none of this.

    On Hinkie’s defense of Captain Participation Trophy, I know you keep saying that he wasn’t the biggest reason for the Phils failures this year and you think the team will bring him back. But do you really believe they should? If it was your decision, would you? If so, what exactly has he done to warrant that 3rd chance?

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    1. I’ve read and heard comments regarding Kapler, that this team could/should be worse off but that he’s kept them in it. Granted, key injuries and poor performance particularly by the young arms set the team back. But when you consider:

      1) the mediocrity of the National League after LAD and ATL,

      2) all the players who in fact did NOT develop or improve from last season (who did?),

      3) the apparent lack of discipline, accountability, and sense of urgency displayed by Kapler and his players,

      4) the roughly 20 very winnable games which the Phillies painfully lost, half of which would have them already in the playoffs, and

      5) all the ingame moves he’s made which even the TV and radio guys questioned.

      This may not be an exhaustive list but how has Gabe Kapler kept this team in it. A marginally better manager would have the Phillies in the playoffs. All his fault? Of course not. There’s plenty of blame to share. But why should he be brought back in 2020?

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      1. 8mark, totally agree. In addition, the DBacks traded away Greinke, the Brewers lost Yelich, the Mets who knows what they’re thinking, the Giants were sellers at the deadline, this was a golden opportunity for the Phils to sneak in as a second WC with some savvy leadership, save Nola for games 1 and 5 against LAD, use someone else to try and sneak through the WC game, and maybe a hot Nola leads to an upset of LAD, and then who knows.

        I’ll add #6 to your list (agree with your 5 completely) – the lack of defined roles in the bullpen. Now some might say how can he with all the injuries? BS, you can at least try. After Neris, nobody else has had a defined role (how about Nick Vincent in high leverage roles?). Pick a LHP and a RHP to be your late inning setup guys and stick to it and build their confidence. Even when he put Pivetta and VV in the pen, one night they are 8th inning setup guys then they are 4 inning mop up long relievers. Just ridiculous.

        Ok and 7, the roster management, how many freaking times did Irvin and Suarez and García and Nick and others go up and down and up and down and up and down to AAA? Yes you can do that very easily on your fantasy football team but these are real humans with real emotions and real families and real friends. Getting sent down can be humiliating, disheartening, embarrassing, and discouraging for the individual. Yes sometimes it’s necessary due to injury or trade or performance, but it shouldn’t be a strategy to manage your bullpen or bench. You already have 8 relievers, start using them properly so this roster shuffling isn’t necessary.

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      2. Former GM, MLB commentator Dan O’Dowd agrees with you on largely point 3.
        Thus…thinks Phillies will go in another managerial direction for next season.

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      3. The biggest mistake the Phillies can make – and they sort of made it this year – is focusing too much on a playoff spot – sacrificing long-term gains for short term competitiveness. That’s a race to the middle and will leave you like the Rockies or Brewers. They need to be focused on how they can become an elite team.

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        1. I’m pretty sure people were extremely happy when the Phillies were rolling early in the season. And I’ve mentioned this before, once you turn into a contending team, it’s all about wins and less about development. This happened when Dom Brown was there and it’s happening again. And it will happen again in the future.

          The Brewers and Rockies are not flush with cash. They felt their window was open now, and they went for it. I can’t fault them for that. Waiting for them to be “elite” can take forever.

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            1. The Braves’ last title was in 1995, and they haven’t won a playoff series since 2001. From 2014-2017, they finished under .500. So they were due to get better since baseball operates in cycles. They got good because Acuna and Albies became elite, and Donaldson staying healthy was a complete surprise.

              But all good teams will have some young talent as part of the core. I’m sure back in 2007, other teams were complaining about Rollins/Utley/Howard/Hamels. When the Braves get bad again (and they will), talk to me about their young talent then.

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    2. Buddy … I would not make Gabe Kapler the scapegoat (keep MacKlentak and fire Kapler). Yes, Gabe has made mistakes. While I don’t always agree with his moves, they are almost always well thought out/data driven. You also have to take into account, the pieces he’s managing. Klentak (who I feel is the most culpable for this mediocre season) dealt Gabe an “ace” (Nola) and four jokers (Arrieta/Pivetta/VV/Eflin) to win with. I understand the BP was supposed to bolster this shaky staff. However, when nearly everyone went down with arm issues (not blaming anyone for that), Klentak brought in a group 88-91 MPH throwing DFA’ed substitutions. No manager was going to win with this group.
      For me, the #1 option (as I posted above) would be to replace MacPhail with Chaim Bloom, and let Bloom go from there (decide Klentak and Kapler’s fates). If Middleton is queasy about doing that, then I’d hold on to Kapler. He’s a smart guy. He’ll learn from his mistakes. He (like all managers) will also be much better at his job next season if the team gives him some actual MLB arms to work with.

      BTW … Gabe gets an “A” for the job he did last night. How he got that dumpster fire of a bullpen through four innings against that Braves lineup is beyond me. He also caught flack for starting SeaRod and Jose Pirela. Rodriguez had a key hit in the 5-run fourth inning, and Pirela followed that with his 2-run homer. That said … the team should just tell Gabe he’s back next season so he can finally focus on developing the younger players. As I’ve stated in the past, Adam Haseley needs to be playing every night (vs both RHP’s and LHP’s).

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      1. Hinkie, a “scapegoat” is when blame is isolated on one individual. I don’t think anyone here is suggesting Gabe is the lone culprit. First off, I credit JTR with getting these AAAA arms through the late innings. Gabe is merely standing on the top step of the dugout. Anyway, Kapler’s deficiencies stand apart from the ragtag pitching staff. We disagree that he handles the bullpen well, but aside from that, his shortcomings are numerous. No manager is perfect….yadayadayada, I get it. We’ve gone back and forth here. The blame for the underwhelming 2019 Phillies isn’t mutually exclusive. Klentak gets as much, if not much more than Gabe. MacPhail is the guy who nobody knows how much he is to blame except for his tone, because who knows what he actually does or decides.

        Kapler doesn’t fit this team or this town. His off the wall lineups and ingame decisions have been at times horrific, not just questionable. And you can’t have someone in his position of leadership who commands such little respect because by his words and actions, he demands little respect. The boss simply can’t be buddies with his employees.

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        1. I’m not saying Gabe handles the BP well. That has obviously been the dent in his resume. I am saying Kapler is working with the weakest BP of any playoff contender. I am giving him credit for his moves last night. I don’t know what to tell you if you want to blame Gabe any time he calls for a reliever who fails/blows a game. Yet, you want to give the credit to Realmuto when the BP succeeds. There is no avenue where Gabe wins in your logic.
          You keep drinking that Angelo Cataldi Kool-Aid LOL. 🙂

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          1. There need be no avenues he either wins or loses because his hiring (which wasn’t his mistake – hey! There you go…maybe he’d be a dynamite GM😆) was Klentak’s misjudgment.

            Cataldi?!?! I may be an idiot but I’ve forgotten more about baseball than that ninny will ever understand. But hey, I can take a shot.

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            2. It’s all good, Hinkie. You and I tend to think alike much more often than we don’t. The Gabe debate is a rare instance where we don’t. But I won’t compare you with Gabe’s biggest apologist, Joe Giglio. HA!

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          2. He has a bullpen full of bums and one okay reliever in Hector Neris and maybe also Alvarez. It’s a miracle they’ve won as many games as they have.

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            1. I’m not sure why Hector Neris is another whipping boy, but he’s better than just an ok reliever in this era of the juiced ball. Neris is making 1.8M with 1.6 WAR. As a comparison, check out these supposedly top relievers:

              Kenley Jansen 0.2 WAR 19.3M salary
              Craig Kimbrel -0.2 WAR 10M salary
              Aroldis Chapman 1.4 WAR, 17.2M salary
              Sean Doolittle 0.9 WAR 6M salary

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            2. I liked Neris a lot as the 8th inning setup man. He’s out of his niche as a closer, by necessity I understand. It would be great if they could adequately fill the closer role (hell, they need to HAVE a closer role first). But that’s another discussion.

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        1. If by midseason 2020, our rotation is G. Cole, Nola, Arrieta, Howard and Eflin, with Smyly starting the season before Spencer arrives, I would be satisfied. Eflin has had a better idea of how to pitch than Pivetta or Velasquez, who should be either moved to the bullpen or traded.

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          1. 8mark…..”Eflin has had a better idea of how to pitch than Pivetta or Velasquez, who should be either moved to the bullpen or traded”.:…because Eflin has been doing it since the Padres drafted him. His aim has been to get into 7th innings or further. Only Bieber and Giolito from the AL have more complete games @ 3 each.

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  46. Another great post-Buddy…especially skated to where the puck was instead of where it was going.

    Your last sentence is Gold! What EXACTLY has he done to warrant his 3rd chance?

    One thing that we need to realize, just because Middleton fires everyone and starts over does NOT mean the team will now be 5 years away, remember “a tiger doesn’t lose his strips” and depends on who they do hire, will probably expedite the rest of this rebuild.

    If any GM can accomplish what the As and the Rays GMs do year after year with a VERY limited budget, imagine what they could do with the big market teams budget!

    So what if McFail and Klentax go somewhere else and crush it, if they stay here, instead of truly moving forward they are stuck in mediocrity.Is that what anyone wants??

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  48. If we go with the “Can’t see the forest through the trees” approach, the team batting was dead middle of the NL teams. Atlanta, Washington and even the Mets were better in almost every category. This year was the year of hitting upgrade. Based on the results, it makes a lot of sense that the hitting instructor is gone. What else could or should be done to fix that?

    Pitching was pretty terrible on a team basis. This year has to be the year of the pitcher. Once you see where that goes, I think you can piss and moan all you want. Sign the hitters you need to sign and go get some pitching. If everything goes to crap next year, the entire front office including the bathroom cleaning staff has to go.

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    1. Pitching:
      Not having the below six guys in the bullpen for the entire season probably cost 4 or 5 wins this season.
      Their total innings pitched of 90 was just too low.

      Dominguez…..25 innings pitched.
      Robertson……..7
      Neshek………..18
      Morgan………..30
      Hunter…………..5
      Arano……………5
      Total…………..90 innings

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    2. Big dreamer here, but what happens if we win out get the playoff win, win only one more game than our opponents in the next 3 series and are the World Champions. Fairy book story but it would be great to hear management afterwards and read the posts.

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      1. Denny, the only dream sequence I can imagine, after they kept reeling us back all season, is that they would play the last game at home vs the Marlins, needing only to win to make the wild card….and lose. More like a nightmare, but certainly not the first we have suffered this season.

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        1. …oh, and lest I forget – Sean Rodriguez would again figure prominently in the train wreck. And Hector would need 30 minutes to warm up. And Cesar would forget how many outs there were and be doubled off second base. (Sorry, Rocco)

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  49. All of you make excellent points. I, personally, am tired of hearing Kapler laud the “gritty” efforts when we lose. That game vs. San Diego put m over the edge. We lost, and Yates struck out the side, and the amount of pitches they saw meant zero. It was an important game when we were still in it. His remarks were just meaningless. My view on the whole situation is that all 3 should go. Just firing Kapler does not address the big problem, and simply forces another Manager to work under 2 guys with no urgency to win. I don’t forget, in addition to MacPhail’s stupid comment, the arrogance he portrayed in applauding how far we have come during this rebuild. when, in fact, the gap with the Braves is still huge, and we have not come very far at all.

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    1. natt13…agree on Gabe.
      Also this infuriates me with the manager…his assessment of Nick Williams.
      A youngster who needed to be moved prior to the season if there was not going to eb any room for him on a full-time bases.

      Do you think Nick Williams has a future in this organization?
      Kapler’s answer went like this:
      “Um, I think he has the talent. He’s a gifted athlete from every perspective….
      …….I think he’s put in a lot of work and people have put in a lot of work thinking about him……I don’t know. I think he’s struggled with some things this season.”

      Kapler favored journeymen players like Sean Rod. over the likes of young players Williams or Franco, or for that matter last year JPC.

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      1. JPC has slowed down a lot in Seattle. He’s still only 24, but he’s had only 1 WAR in Seattle in about half a season. And Seattle is not a hitter’s paradise that’s for sure.

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  50. This mess isn’t nearly entirely Kapler’s doing. His relief corps is decimated, he never had a good group of starters and the one he had that was okay is out for the year, and the hitting is alright but not great and also has been set back by injuries. The GM and President are mostly to blame in my view. I think they get another chance to right the ship (I’m not saying they should, just telling you what I think Middleton) will do, but if it doesn’t go well next year, there will be broad changes at the upper levels and this off season there will be other hiring and firing of coaches and scouts as the management group is going to have to show Middleton some appearance of forward progress. But, on the whole, this rebuild, while fairly well conceived at first, has not been executed that well and the organization is paying a price for trying to spend and trade its way out of mediocrity given the limited assets coming from the farm. If I had to grade the rebuild thus far, I’d probably give it a C or a C+ – not horrible but certainly not a ringing endorsement.

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  51. Exactly Romus, and what about Franco? The team President said maybe Franco’s next team will unlock his potential but they never moved him. We didn’t do anything with him either. Simply let their value plummet further. Well. plummet may not be the right word, there wasn’t far to drop. Maybe dwindle further is better. Anyway, one of the headlines locally today is “Phillies’ downfall followed Club President Andy MacPhail’s mid-season complacency.” Last week, Ken Rosenthal wrote about the same thing. Maybe, Middlleton is reading? He has to address the media after this season ends. He expressed expectations for this year that are the same as ours. It will be very interesting to see what approach he takes.

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  52. Today, Matt Gelb writes a piece on Vinny Velasquez. Gabe Kapler said that after 4 years and 90 starts since joining the Phillies in 2015, “I don’t think he’s done developing by any stretch.” Geez, I’m not really sure how to interpret that statement. It’s an indictment of the Phillies, Kapler’s pitching coaches and VV himself. Holy smokes! How much time are we allowing for his development? And last night was only another case in point. Talented? Undoubtedly. Swiss army knife? Perhaps. But at what point along the way have we seen any convergence in his career. And I suggest another failure by the front office to redeem his value, whatever it might be.

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    1. Vince Velasquez, Maikel Franco, JP Crawford, Nick Williams, Jhailyn Ortiz, Luis Garcia (at least currently), Mickey Moniak (?), Dom Brown…all talents highly touted at one point by most baseball insiders. Their common denominator? The Phillies organization, and player development in particular. Crawford is with Seattle now and not necessarily thriving there either, but the M’s aren’t exactly a top echelon organization either.

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      1. I’m 100% certain that if you ask any fan of another team to name 5 “failed” prospects in the last 5 years, they will be able to do it. For example, Blake Swihart with the Red Sox, Mark Appel with the Astros,

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        1. One prospect the Phillies wanted and the other they got, then he retired.

          They aren’t good at judging other teams’ prospects either.

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          1. Mark Appel was a change of scenery prospect. He was not the center piece of that deal.

            Blake Swihart was a top 25 prospect. He was big time, but he failed big time for the Red Sox. The Phillies clearly dodged a bullet here.

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    2. All this talk about “redeeming somebody’s value” is again hindsight talk. You’re only talking about this because you don’t want him anymore. But you need to understand that if you don’t want him there, the other teams know that also. So you’re only to get pennies on the dollar. And if you’re only getting that, why trade him? Imagine if he gets traded and he flourishes elsewhere. The GM is on the hot seat. But if you let him walk into FA and he gets better elsewhere, at least you can say we gave that player all the time in the world here and it just didn’t work out. The result is the same (the player is better elsewhere) but the GM has an excuse that could save his job. So that’s why I feel VV/Eflin/Pivetta will be around in 2020.

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      1. No, it’s holding on to a player too long out of fear that you won’t get what YOU think he’s worth in return, that by the time you realize he’s no longer in your future plans, he’s worth a bag of balls. Pitchers might be different from position players in this regard because their development typically isn’t linear. But nobody will criticize the Phillies because they got rid of a guy who turns out better with another team. They will criticize them for not being able to bring him along while he was here. A good GM will discern the difference and proceed accordingly. Klentak is frozen in indecision and ambivalence, slow to act, a day late and a few dollars short.

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        1. You just mentioned that development isn’t linear and then you go and criticize the Phillies for NOT developing somebody? So if a player is a late developer, we blame the Phillies for not developing him sooner? How does that make sense?

          What you should be doing is blaming the player at least equal amounts. It’s NOT only the Phillies fault if a prospect fails. Prospects fail all the time. Blaming ONLY the Phillies when somebody fails is crazy. I’ll give you a tip. More Phillies prospects will fail in 2020, 2021, and beyond. That is the nature of the game. Just because Nick Williams fails doesn’t mean the Phillies can’t develop players. The Phillies have their share of homegrown players on the team, which does include Cesar Hernandez. Maybe Nick Williams can’t adjust at the major league level. And perhaps him being on the Phillies/Astros/Braves won’t ever change that.

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    3. Charlie Morton’s ERA+ his age 24-31 seasons:
      68
      92
      53
      97
      81
      109
      97
      81

      Charlie Morton’s ERA+ age 32-35 seasons:
      103
      113
      131
      142

      Sometimes it takes pitchers with elite stuff a long time to figure out how to pitch.

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  53. I was thinking. and don’t think a lot. If kapler isn’t fired. The high light of the offseason might be Romus annual Christmas Party at Oregon Diner, and its a byo party. so please fire Gabe and make the offseason fun.

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    1. rocco……I changed the venue this year…its upscale now….at the Penrose Diner. Then I will run a shuttle holiday lights bus tour of Packer Park. 🙂

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  55. Noticed how mow similar the tracks are between Chip and Gabe.

    Chip started out great….10 wins first year and playoffs…then all went south the next two years until Lurie pulled the plug..
    Gabe…first 110 or so games in 2018, great….then last 200 games, not so much… 94-106
    I believe Middleton will want to do something similar.

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  57. It’s amazing how fast everyone here is willing to throw everyone under the bus.

    Here is my evaluation.

    Phils offseason – They made several big moves including Harper (3.8 war), Realmuto (5.7 war!), Segura (2.5 war) , Mccutchen (1.5 war), Robertson (-0.2).

    Realmuto has turned into a superstar, Harper has performed as hoped, Segura has been solid, Mccutchen was a borderline all-star before he got hurt. Robertson is a huge dud but at the time it seemed like a reasonable contract and he had a great track record of health. We only guaranteed 2 years where a bad gm would have gone 3 (or traded for Diaz+Cano).

    Overall it was a great off-season and I agree with every move that we made.

    As for the moves we didn’t make – We didn’t go 6 years on Corbin and he has certainly helped the Nationals this year but only time will tell if it was worth it. My guess is we decided we would have a better alternative this offseason. While some big starters got extended we still have a shot at Cole and possibly Strasburg. I was a believer in Charlie Morton and that was one move I bet they wished they had back but I can see the logic of seeing what you have and addressing the next off-season.

    As for Keuchel everyone who is complaining about not signing him aren’t praising Klentak for not giving a big contract to Kimbrel. Keuchel also hasn’t pitched as well he looks and his underlying metrics haven’t been good.

    As for prospects MLB pipeline just did an updated top 100 today and they added added Howard and Stott to the top 100 along with Bohm. When you factor in we traded Sixto and Medina fell out that’s pretty solid expecially when you factor in a decent amount of players recently graduated and or were traded.

    Lastly as for out of the box thinking they hired Jason Ochart from Driveline. That was definitely an out of the box move that I think could pay huge dividends down the road.

    I think if you look at everything that was done the team has made reasonable moves from top to bottom. Things didn’t work out pitcher wise this year but we also avoided making Terrible mistakes like trading for Diaz or signing some pitchers to terrible contracts like the cubs recently have. The front office made the decision that we weren’t good enough to win a title this year again buzz saws like the Dodger, Yankees, and astros and protected the farm. In the long run this will only help. We just need to accept this year was a growing year and not a contending year as painful as it is to watch.

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    1. Appreciate your optimism Bosss but couldn’t disagree more. The ineptitude of this FO has never been more apparent

      Let me say it again this is year 5

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      1. DMAR…..that length of 6 years really looms big, and I think Middleton will seriously take that into account on any decisions he will make in a few weeks.

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        2. Healthy we are a playoff team. Length of rebuild and a playoff run derailed by injuries are two different things.

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    2. Jason Ochart and Driveline….does anyone have his/their track record of success with other teams? Pro levels? Sincerely curious, in all fairness. (Romus, this sounds like a question for you)

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      1. 8mark….Driveline’s value in player development is getting close to universal acceptance. What you have to remember….it is individually driven….each player..be he a pitcher or position player….gets access to the measuring tools, guided instructions, specific exercises, and it is up to the player to achieve what he wants.
        For example, Corey Kluber uses a weighted baseball in the off-season, which is one part of the pitcher’s program…..and the first MLB player to work with Driveline was former Indians pitcher Trevor Bauer,
        As to what MLB teams are using it….the ones I am aware of are the Dodgers, Indians and Astros ..they have introduced it to their players
        However, specific equipment and tracking devices fro monitoring players, may be used by a majorityo f the teams now.

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      2. As I understand the driveline hitting program developed later than their pitching program, and they really don’t have much success to brag on with regards to big leaguers. The methods and technology they use aren’t uncommon though among progressive teams.

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    3. I think a lot of us agree that, viewed as a whole, Klentak’s moves last off season and during the season this year, were pretty good to very good. The problem is that, even with those good moves, this team does not have enough good young talent and especially good young pitching talent. If Spencer Howard can quickly become a 3 and they acquire a top flight FA arm, things can change quickly, but so far, the rebuild has been merely okay, not great. They needs a farm system that pumps out more good players and they need to identify and acquire young players through trades – they have underperformed in those areas by quite a bit.

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      1. And by the way, the team did itself no favors when it went for quantity over quality when it made some its big trades. Time and again teams get burned when they try to solve too many problems in a single trade . Rather than insisting on two A level prospects in the Hamels trade, they got 5 B, C and D level prospects. The Giles trade was a little better at the time (we can slam him now, but Velasquez was an A- type prospect), but ended up just as bad. But when the Braves made trades they demanded A level prospects and are now reaping the benefits. Meanwhile, in the years when the prospects from the Hamels and Giles trades should be putting us over the top, we have a single 4th starter to show for them. Fools.

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        1. Catch, can’t see how you keep praising Matt Klentak after the pitching fiascos of Pivetta Vasquez and the veteran relievers? Was Segura a great deal as he was traded four times in five years? Zack Eflin finally looks like a keeper so one pitcher worked out this season. Alfaro was one of the keys in getting JT Realmuto. Jake Thompson and Nick Williams were highly regarded prospects in Texas but were mishandled by this Phillies Front Office as was Vince Velasquez.

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          1. It’s funny you’re reading my comments to be praise for Matt Klentak. I’m pretty much ready to write him off because he didn’t do the most important things well – namely, draft and develop enough players. And, nope, you won’t get me to change my mind about the guys they got in the Hamels and Giles trades – all B level prospects or lower and it shows. Jake Thompson was never that good nor was Nick Williams. There was no Dansby Swanson level prospect in the group, let alone another Gleyber Torres, who the Yankees got for a half season they didn’t need of Aroldis Chapman and then got Chapman back again the next year for no draft pick compensation. Now THAT is a trade.

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      2. I agree with Howard. In retrospect, I think it’s fair to question the Realmuto trade. How would Nola,Arrietta,Howard, Sixto, and Pick your 5th, look next year with Alfaro or Grullon manning the plate?

        The FO should be judged on this, and the payroll difference between those moves. My saving grace would be if Realmuto was bound for the Braves and it blocked him from
        Going there. All said, it may not be fair but … time is going to tell.

        Signing Cole is the counter argument with Realmuto. Either way, fair to judge imo

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        1. No thanks on banking on a healthy Arrieta or presuming Sixto is the real deal. Small framed pitchers who throw fire are worrisome. And Alfaro and Grullon behind the plate? More mediocrity at perhaps the most important position on the field? No thanks there, too.

          I’m perfectly fine with JTR at the cost we paid, especially when we lock him up this fall.

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          1. ….when I ask myself which fate I would prefer between 2 extreme scenarios (naturally anything in between is possible and probably more likely)….

            Either (A) Sixto traded to another team and going on to become a HOF pitcher and JTR as a potential HOF catcher here for 5 years….

            Or (B) we keep Sixto and muddle through with Alfaro and Grullon, only to see Sixto struggle to sustain both his health and performance throughout his tenure as a Phillie.

            I’ll pick (A).

            Like

            1. I think that’s a false choice. The Phillies would have kept Sixto and probably acquired a FA catcher in this or next offseason and that player might have been JT Realmuto.

              Like

            2. Look, Realmuto has been great and it was a really good trade I believe, but I’m just saying there are many other possible outcomes than those you outlined.

              Like

            3. Or (C) we keep Sixto, sign Yasmani Grandal who was a FA and signed a 1 year deal and has had a 4.9 WAR season (on pace for his 3rd 5+ WAR season) and flip Alfaro for a Bullpen arm or a better SP.

              If we have the benefit of hindsight, I’ll take C.

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  58. All I know is what I see and that’s rebuilds should no longer take longer than 5 years if you’re a big money club with a gifted FO. You should at least be making the playoffs.

    Properly run organizations do it on the fly…

    it’s unacceptable to me that we won’t nab at least a WC this season.

    Like

    1. DMAR – I agree with you that properly run organizations don’t take 5 years to rebuild. However we weren’t properly run and were a dumpster fire when he took over that waited a couple years too long to start their rebuild. Detroit is probably the closest example of a team that waited too long and I guarantee they aren’t making the playoffs in the next 3-4 years.
      I’m confident that we will be contending this time next year.

      Like

      1. I type this in a very non-contentious way. Was it really a dumpster fire?

        Nola
        Hoskins
        Herrera
        Kingery
        Neris
        Alfaro
        Eflin
        Pivetta
        Dominguez
        Sanchez
        Knapp
        Williams
        Crawford
        Giles

        Are some highlights and that’s not to say all these guys are stud MLBers. It’s to say when the mandate was lifted to try and stay in the window with aging sentimental favorites and with $0 budget towards analytics they made moves in the right direction and had/added some talent on the books.

        So Monty moves out Middleton moves in and all of the sudden there is $$$ for analytics, hires from Google and a new mandate to become more analytically driven. Great let’s roll. My point is not to say we should have stuck with the old regime or the old way.

        My point is to realize that this group is out of their league before it gets any worse. They are not the best and brightest of what’s out there and in staying with them any longer hoping they catch up is or will be an exercise in futility. You can give me 10 years to train for the 100 meter Usain Bolt is still going to beat the britches off of me every time.

        Guys like Luhnow, Friedman, Cashman, Bloom, Zaidi, Hazen aren’t going anywhere. if anything they will spawn even more GM’s better than what we have.

        IMO of course.

        And to sit here and cite injuries you have a bunch of teams about to win 100+ games that have had just as many injuries to deal with if not more. Look at the number of players the Yankees, Dodgers and Astro’s have missed to IR.

        Like

        1. I’m not sure what Tampa is currently paying Bloom, but I can’t imagine it’s THAT much that “Stupid Money” Middleton couldn’t top it significantly AND offer a higher title. Bloom interviewed for the Mets GM job and got passed by. I would assume he’s just like every other American businessman….money talks. MLB clubs won’t keep an executive from pursuing upward mobility.

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  59. So basically Bosss, as the year unfolded and it became apparent that the SP still wasn’t good enough, and Keuchel was available for only $, no prospects, players or drat picks, it is ok that we didn’t get him? And a WC spot wasn’t worth getting decent BP help instead of dumpster diving, because there is no value in making the playoffs because we cannot beat LA? I disagree. And I hope you are right that their plan is to put a Playoff team together this off season, but I don’t get wasting this year.

    Like

  60. If any pitching coach tells Eflin to change his style, Eflin should tell him to take a hike. He looked great today.

    Like

  61. Mr. H … Matt Klentak took questions tonight, and your son came up.

    Question: Will top pitching prospect Spencer Howard crack the opening day rotation next season?

    Answer: “I think probably he’s going to need more time in the minor leagues. He had such an abbreviated season this year (because of a minor shoulder injury), as impressive as it was, we’re sending him to the Arizona Fall League to capture some of those innings that he missed when he was on the injured list this year to build up his workload in such a way that he can have a full season or even an extended season workload next year. One of the big challenges in baseball right now is the difference in the ball itself. I think it’s going to be important for him to get comfortable with the major league ball, whether that’s spring training or at the Triple A level, before we have confidence that he’s ready for the next step and that he has the confidence that he’s ready for the next step. None of that should diminish our confidence in him to be a very good pitcher at the major league level and hopefully in short order. We do think he has a very bright future ahead of him, but we also need to make sure we do the right thing for him developmentally and we’re hopeful that his positive progression will continue in the fall.”

    Like

    1. Regarding Kapler, Klentak said nothing in the same media session to dispel the possibility that Gabe’s return in 2020 is at best uncertain. It sounded like if it were up to him, Gabe would be back. But whether that decision will be the GM’s or not remains to be seen.

      From what Klentak was quoted about JTR, it sounds like working on extending his contract will be their first order of business.

      Like

  62. I only got to see one inning last night. When we had bases loaded and three straight hitters, couldn’t get a run in with o outs. I know it must have been talked about. so sorry if I am repeating this. but all the love by Hinkie for Gabe, makes me wonder why? The story on effin is that he wanted to throw 2 seam fastball, which he was more comfortable doing. and Young told him to throw the 4 seam, and high in the zone, if I am not mistaken. Which to me is crazy if you pitching well with a 2 seam. If this is the case, Why didn’t Gabe step in and tell Young to let him throw what he was comfortable throwing, and had some success with it? Sorry but his and the fact he doesn’t know how to handle his starting pitchers drives me nuts. Gabe is at fault for a lot of the failures of this team. I know he didn’t have a great bullpen. but the way he handles starters who are pitching well and pulls them. to go to a bad bullpen is bad, so he is one of the reason we are not a playoff team. Along with the G.M who in my option is terrible. ,All stats and no common sense.

    Like

    1. rocco….they are finally letting Eflin pitch- to- contact as he did in the minors.
      His sinker misses barrels regularly …of course, when it is on.
      Last 5 starts …WHIP of 1.01 over 29 innings…and an average Game Score of 59.

      Like

  63. If you haven’t already, either listen to Klentak on yesterday’s podcast with Jon Heyman, or just read Salisbury’s transcript of the GM’s state of the Phillies address with the beat reporters. You’ll have to ask yourself, “Is Klentak watching the same team we are?” His answer to the JTR situation was the only part that made sense. I know we should take much of what these guys say with a grain of salt but this guy is way out of touch with reality. MacPhail is a wet blanket but at least he’s honest. Klentak is living in a dream world if he really believes most of the drool he spewed yesterday.

    Like

    1. Klentak basically gave Realmuto an open check book with his comments. Paraphrasing – “We regarding him as the best catcher in baseball coming into the year, and he exceeded those expectations”

      Dude … just grab your ankles now. Talk about driving the price up. Sure it was already going to be high, but … if it isn’t already a handshake agreement, that’s a 20 million dollar bump for Realmuto. Nice job klentak

      Like

      1. I say 5/$110M is a lock with possibly an additional vested option year. Vested as in games or innings behind the plate in final 1 or 2 yrs of his term. I wouldn’t even blink.

        Like

  64. will someone explain to me why organized baseball is using two different balls. the need for a pitcher to learn to use the mlb and 3a ball after developing in the lower minors with a different balls is something new and seems to defy common sense.

    Like

    1. My guess, is mlb is Experimenting with real life results, and in part is a result of the impact that the shift has on batting stats. The new ball has put hr totals through the roof, which is one of the few ways a pull hitter can be the shift. Also, basically steriod era results without the performance enhancment backlash, if one believes steriods are significantly out of the game.

      I’m hoping they have enough data to pick one ball, whichever one it is. Personally I’m hoping for older style baseball. More ball action for the pitcher. I’m somewhat curious what ball Arrietta was throwing in one of his last spring training games … it had some of the nastiest downward spinning motion I’ve seen, ever.

      Like

      1. Tac3…baseball has traditionally. from its very inception. tinkered with their balls.
        There was the Dead ball era over a 100 years ago…then they decided to liven it up a little….in fact so much….check out the stats for 1930.
        Hack Wilson had 191 RBIs in 155 games.
        https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/1930-batting-leaders.shtml

        So they will probably make more changes for next season…..pitchers like Verlander will use the play-offs and WS to make their point more vocal.

        Like

  65. Early in the system, his jorney, but looking to see thoughts on Ethan Lindow’s position in the organization. Is he being forecasted to be a talent above a Medina, on par with Howard? Haven’t seen video, or scouting reports on him as of yet but obviously he had a year to get excited about. SO/BB ratio

    Klentak may not be looking towards 2020, but I am 🙂

    Like

    1. Lindow just got promoted to Clearwater so he’s going to start 2020 there. I don’t think he’s part of the plans yet. He’s young, and still pretty far from the big leagues. If he forces himself to be part of the plans, then great. But right now, it’s probably a wait and see approach. He’ll need to have a monstrous year for him to sniff the big leagues in 2020. Think 2021 at the earliest.

      Like

  66. Bossss makes a lot of valid points. I have previously given Matt Klentak credit for a good offseason last winter. In last week’s Open Thread, I admitted the Realmuto and Segura trades were excellent. He probably overpaid (slightly) for McCutchen, but that was another good move. He also gets credit for the leg work on Harper, but Middleton was the driving force and closer on that deal.
    In season, he gets mixed reviews. The Dickerson trade was larceny. His additions of Vargas and Smyly were helpful. However, he gets an “F” for the disaster that is the Phillies bullpen. That pen was down Robertson, Ser-Ant’ny, Hunter, Neshek, and Morgan. His decision to supplement with bargain bin additions/freebies/other teams’ castoffs has put Kapler in an impossible position.

    Your point on Driveline being an “out of the box” move is valid, and I have failed to mention it. I will point out however, player development (both hitters and pitchers) has not exactly taken off after the Driveline hire. I guess (one of) my biggest complaint(s) with Matt Klentak is his abysmal record on procuring young talent. He hasn’t done enough to maintain the farm system. Over the last five drafts, no franchise has made fewer top three round picks than the Phillies (I’m re-posting the #’s I first listed last week … see below). He wasted two high picks on (1 year of) Carlos Santana and the bloated overpay of Jake Arrieta. At the same time, while he was sitting on one of the most meager payrolls in MLB, Klentak never thought to eat another team’s bad money/contracts for a draft pick (or two) or prospects. That’ to me is either lack of aggressiveness or lack of “out of the box” thinking.
    To make the dearth of top draft picks situation even worse … Klentak let another chance for an “out of the box” move go by the wayside last winter when he passed on signing Garrett Richards (who was not carrying a QO) to a TJ rehab deal. How nice would it be to have a healthy Richards penciled in for the 2020 rotation? Now, it looks like Klentak is going to have to sign another FA starter this winter. All the good ones are going to be tagged, meaning the Phillies will lose another 2nd round pick next June. BTW … the 2020 draft is already being graded as one of best in the past 10 years.
    Most people think I’m kidding when I bring up the Hinkie plan to hire Iron Chef Masaharu Morimoto as the clubs Director Of Clubhouse Food Services. But … why not? If it can even give the team a slight edge in luring top Japanese FA’s here, wouldn’t it be worth the Morimoto salary? The lack of interest in this idea falls more on Andy MacPhail, but the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree, if you catch my drift.
    IMO … Klentak (and the entire organization) just hasn’t been forward thinking enough.

    … and here is the stat I mentioned above:
    Top 3 Round Draft Picks over the last 5 years:

    Phillies ONLY 12
    DBacks 23
    Braves 19
    Orioles 19
    Red Sox 14
    Cubs 15
    White Sox 14
    Reds 19
    Indians 19
    Rockies 20
    Tigers 14
    Astros 19
    Royals 20
    Angels 15
    Dodgers 18
    Marlins 17
    Brewers 18
    Twins 18
    Mets 15
    Yankees 17
    A’s 18
    Pirates 21
    Padres 20
    Giants 15
    Mariners 16
    Cardinals 18
    Rays 22
    Rangers 17
    Blue Jays 16
    Nationals 15

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    1. You make some interesting points, but just because the Phillies don’t follow your points, doesn’t mean that they’re not thinking out of the box or anything like that. And if you feel so greatly that you’re right (and the Phillies are wrong) then perhaps you should send your resume to the Phillies and see what happens.

      My point being is that we all love the Phillies, but no team is going to make all the right decisions. Constantly bemoaning the fact that the Phillies are not following your suggestions will not make them come true.

      Like

    2. Hinkie……you should have labeled the small market teams that get the CB picks…there are 15 of them…..and therein is their five additional picks for those teams over the five year period..
      However, there was nothing stopping Klentak from trading some minor league prospect or two for a CB pick, especially in the years he had to forfeit their 2nd or 3rd round picks due to the FA signings….which he decided not to do..

      Like

      1. To be clear … I am not “bemoaning the fact that the Phillies are not following my suggestions”. I am just supporting my claim that Matt Klentak hasn’t been aggressive enough/done enough “out of the box” maneuvering to keep the prospect pipeline flowing.

        Consider this … over the past five and a half years, the Braves have acquired 4 competitive balance draft picks. They also picked up Touki Toussant a year after he was selected at 1-16 in the draft just for eating bad money (Bronson Arroyo’s contract). The Phillies don’t have to hire me to point them in the right direction. These moves are being made around baseball (within their own division). Their FO is just late to the party.

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        1. Talking about competitive balance picks was not the only issue in your post. If it was, I would not have responded.

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          1. I apologize if I haven’t made this clear enough for you. Trading for draft picks, signing rehabbing pitchers to team friendly contracts, and hiring Japanese employees into your organization to help lure Japan’s top players are all ideas to help the club get a hold of young talent. These are ideas being used by other teams (Padres hired Shohei Ohtani’s trainer months before he made his way to MLB). We’re still waiting for MacKlentak to catch up with these tactics. While we wait, the Phillies farm continues to be bypassed by most of the league. This will catch up with the Phillies in the near future.
            If you don’t agree with this, that’s fine. We can agree to disagree.

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        2. Totally agree. Klentak is simply too conservative. Again, the guy who shows up at a gun fight with a box cutter.

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      2. So the Yankees had 17, Dodgers 18 and the Astro’s 19. Are the Astro’s considered small market or do they get CB picks?

        Moot point I guess if you don’t draft well.

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        1. DMAR…how it shaped up recently for the 14 small market teams and slot money
          Yankees traded for the 38th pick…something Hinkie and I harp on continually for Klentak to start doing….DBacks and Hazen also traded for an additional pick, along with the Rays..

          Competitive Balance Round A (after first round)
          35 CBA Marlins $2,095,800
          36 CBA Rays $2,045,400
          37 ………….COMP…….Pirates
          38 CBA Yankees $1,952,300
          39 CBA Twins $1,906,800
          40 CBA Rays $1,856,700
          41 CBA Rangers $1,813,500
          Round B:
          70 CBB Royals $906,800
          71 CBB Orioles $884,200
          72 CBB Pirates $870,700
          73 CBB Padres $857,400
          74 CBB Diamondbacks $844,200
          75 CBB Diamondbacks $831,100
          76 CBB Mariners $818,200
          77 CBB Rockies $805,600

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    3. Somewhat repeating what Romus said, circumstances were really stacked against the Phillies to get extra picks. In fact, at the beginning of the 2015 season the Phillies would’ve been strong favorites to have the fewest picks over the next 5 years. Beyond not being eligible for the CB picks, they had no one on their roster after the 2014 season and beyond (besides Hamels) who would’ve warranted a QO offer.

      I think it’s forgotten how hopeless the organization’s talent pool was coming out of the 2014/15 offseason. Literally no one from their starting lineup or rotation (except Hamels) is in organized baseball anymore and the minor league system was bottom 5-10.

      Like

    4. Also, Garret Richards is fine as a lottery ticket, but the guy is going to be 32 next year and has pitched a grand total of 142 over the last 4 seasons. You can’t really count on him being healthy enough to even get to 80-100 IPs next year.

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  67. I can’t get over all the called 3rd strikes these hitters take. Soroka is a good pitcher but how does someone not swing at anything close with 2 strikes? Hoskins and Miller today in the 4th back to back. That’s not scratching and clawing, Gabe.

    Like

    1. 8mark……I have questioned Rhy’s batting approach at particular times.
      He sees a lot of pitches, but seems to guess too often…at least it seems that way when guys let third strikes go by with their bat on their shoulders.
      And in Rhys’ case….he usually has 2 or 3 balls on him also….which makes it more infuriating since the pitchers do not want to walk him in certain situations.
      Now this is opposite Kinegry….who flails a lot on pitches O-zone with two strikes.

      Like

  68. Read the JTR story in the inquirer today about wanting to be a Phillie for life. Please tell me how many times he mentions his manager in that discussion.

    Like

      1. …sorry, that was Zolecki’s piece on Phillies/MLB web site. No mention of the manager. Just about looking for new hitting coach.

        Like

  69. Let’s have a little fun with numbers…

    The Phils are 78-72
    The Braves are 93-60

    The Phils vs. the Marlins this year are 7-9
    The Braves vs. the Marlins this year are 15-4

    Let’s say, the Phils had the Braves record against the worst team in the NL and vice versa.

    The Phils would be 86-67
    The Braves would be 85-65

    So then you would say, well…the Braves have a better Manager and thus beat the worst team in baseball…ok, well, the Phils won the head to head matchups vs the Braves this year. So wouldn’t a better manager win head to head?

    What’s my point? Baseball can be flukey…Sometimes a good team plays poorly against a terrible team. It doesn’t mean that the Phillies manager sucks and the Braves manager is great. It’s baseball…it happens.

    Kapler did a very good job this year given the rash of injuries and poor performance from his starting staff. Was he perfect? No. Is any manager in baseball perfect? No! But he did a good job. This team is close. It needs a few more pitchers and an upgrade at 3b and it will be right there with the Braves.

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        1. Well, that’s partly what we do here. Project what lies ahead and scrutinize the past. We’ve been talking about Kapler’s warts for months now. What’s changed?

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    2. Great post, v1. I’d also bet anything Gabe Kapler looks a whole lot better next season with a stronger starting rotation and a healthier bullpen.

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      2. Hinkie, yes a stronger rotation next year. But with the new rules restricting bullpen usage, he may have a nervous breakdown.

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        1. 8mark….new rules for 2020…. active roster will increase from 25 to 26 players, and that all pitchers must pitch to a minimum of THREE batters OR….the end of a half-inning before being relieved

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    3. My biggest issue with Gabe was the bullpen usage. He was talking about not having set roles, and mixing and matching relievers based on the match ups. Pitchers like set roles. It makes them comfortable. Gabe learned that quickly. Also, the relievers were being used way too much. Yes, in a perfect world, my lefty reliever gets out your lefty hitter. But when that doesn’t happen, he’s burning another reliever. So that’s still a work in progress.

      I agree that the team is close. If 1 of Robertson/Hunter/Dominguez were healthy, I think it would have made a world of difference.

      The upgrade at 3B should come from Bohm. Brad Miller could hold down the fort when Bohm is ready.

      Assuming the Phllies re-sign Smyly for nothing crazy, Cole or Wheeler should be the pitcher the Phillies should look at. We need stability in the rotation.

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        1. I’ve been watching baseball a long time, and I got tired of all the mid-inning pitching changes. It prolongs the game, and kills the pace. Now, a premium will be on relievers who can get both sides out. And the lineups should have more of a right/left balance to take advantage of these new rules.

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        2. Romus I wish I could be nice, but how in Gods name can anyone who thinks they know baseball. Say kape did a good job. OMG. today he doesn’t walk freeman, stupid stupid move. If people think this guy is a good manager, then i just cant understand what the hell they are watching. John Middleton cant keep this moron, if he does, the same people who are praising him. Will be in hiding next year if he stays. Stop looking at only stats and watch the game.

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          1. rocco….understand your frustration.
            My take on what Klentak said yesterday is that Kapler is on the fence…..no extension offers so far going into his last year and mentioned he wants to see how the last dozen games go….not really ringing endorsements on Gabe’s assured return.
            As he said:
            “I highlighted a few areas where I think our manager and coaching staff have done a terrific job. Whether those contributions are enough to get us in the playoffs or not remains to be seen. We have 13 more games. But I think there have been a lot of positives.”

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            1. Romus, interpretation – “If it’s up to me, Gabe and the coaching staff will return. But the owner told me not to say anything definitive because I’m not positive I’ll be back.”

              Like

      2. whom exactly earned a set role with his consistency? i didn’t see any reliever that was good enough to lock down a set role besides Neris. but besides him, whom in your estimation deserved to be locked in as the 8th inning guy or the 7th inning guy? i saw a bunch of dreg. so gabe did the best that he could and play the matchups.

        Like

          1. Exactly. The plan was Robertson for 7th and Seranthony for 8th. They got hurt. They tried Morgan. Didn’t hold the position. Not Gabe’s fault.

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    4. Since we are imagining things and delving into the hypothetical, let’s say Maddon, Geraldi or Showalter had this team for the year. Where would we be today?

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        1. Then they should do away with the manager position. Send all the pregame instructions via text to the bench coach. Oh…wait….

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        1. So boiling the comparison of Kapler and Snitker down to 19 games instead of 162 tells us anything? All I hear from Gabe’s apologists is, “it’s not his fault”. What has he done strategically to foster a few wins? His lineups are chronically inane. Many of his double switch moves have been illogical. He regularly allows leadoff baserunners stranded at 1b without attempting to move them into scoring position. And those in scoring position stay there because he has his hitters approach every AB the same as if situations are irrelevant. He might as well pick names out of a hat if what he does is of no consequence. Joe Giglio should host all of our Kapler supporters on the radio for a Gabefest.

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          1. I am not boiling the comparison down to 19 games. Of course it matters more how a team performs over 162. That was not my point. My point is, the narrative that Gabe sucks is lazy. I am sure that you disagreed with some of his in-game moves, but I guarantee you they were backed up by giving his team the highest statistical probability to make the play. ultimately it is on the players to make the plays and a lot of the Phillies players did not perform.

            People complain about his bullpen management…but look at who he has. Whom on that roster is a shut down reliever besides Neris? Whom? Name someone that should be the go to 8th inning guy.

            Do you honestly believe that he isn’t trying to advance leadoff baserunners? Would it surprise you to learn that the Phillies are 5th in all of baseball in UBR? https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ultimate-base-running-primer/ That reality kinda messes up your talking point.

            Here is what I think…everyone loves to blame losses on the manager. It is lazy analysis imo. At the end of the day, the player is on the mound. He has to throw strikes. And the hitter is in the box, he has to hit line drives or take walks. The manager’s job is to put them in the position to best do that and I have not seen any real, data driven analysis that shows Gabe didn’t do that.

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            1. So I should just disregard what I see with my own eyes and realize it’s all an illusion because the numbers tell a different story than what the actual results suggest. Got it.

              Again, Gabe Kapler isn’t alone in the blame game. His roster is inadequate. I got it. That doesn’t preclude him from making poor tactical decisions. Over and over again. Keeping him as manager of the Philadelphia Phillies won’t increase their chances of winning in 2020. Period.

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        2. Atlanta does not have far better talent, they have a manager and coaching staff far superior to the Phils and the results show accordingly. As for Gabe’s in game decision making, if you need someone to highlight all the shortcomings for you, you’ll need to go take Baseball 101 first.

          Like

          2. “Buddy” – let’s cut it with the personal insults and stick to baseball.

            Atlanta is better at every position except Catcher. We can call SS a wash or a slight edge to Philly. But every other position Atlanta is better:
            – Acuna > Harper
            – Markakis >>> the dreg that we have put out in the other corner OF spot.
            – Freeman is far better than Rhys
            – Donaldson is far, far better than the dreg that has been our 3b
            – Albies is better than Cesar by .100 OPS
            – Their 3rd OF spot has performed far better than ours has this year
            – pitching…the Braves starting staff has a .36 point lower ERA.

            If you think a few mis-managed switches or the wrong bullpen decision in a few games really changes any of that then we can just respectfully agree to disagree.

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            1. The metrics spell it out.
              The only saving grace for the Phillies is their average age at the starting
              8 positions may be younger.
              Acuna and Albies would be the standout exceptions.

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  70. Nola appears to be pretty much shot for the season. Pitching every 5th day was noble of Gabe to try, but the ace’s history of doing that doesn’t support the decision.

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    1. 2019 Nola on 4 days rest: 3.78 ERA
      2019 Nola on 5 days rest: 3.58 ERA

      So he was a little better with more rest, but not much.

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      1. I don’t have it handy but his career numbers since ’15 show a greater disparity. Of course, he’s probably growing stronger, I would suppose.

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  71. Pitching Nola every fifth day was noble of Gabe to try,( or Klentax) if he comes down with arm trouble this year or early next year?

    This shows how desperate this crew is, just to save face and trying to get close to making the playoffs. Did anyone truly expect them to be relevant in the play-offs this year if they squeaked in?

    And to increase the risk of injury to your only real good starting pitcher? I wonder how Aaron feels about that?

    Haseley having another good game today,should’ve been switched with Miller in the lineup.

    Like

    1. You make it sound like pitching every 5th day is not the normal course of action. A starting pitcher’s job is to pitch every 5th day. Now does Nola deserve an extra day of rest here or there? Of course. But if the Phillies can’t rely on Nola down the stretch, who can we rely on? Is he not the ace?

      Like

      1. You’re absolutely right. He’s the ace (currently). The ace should be able to handle that load. Scherzer, Verlander, guys like that are built for that use. As outstanding as Nola is in many outings, I think his constitution is limited. Gerrit Cole would look better in that role. We’ll see what the brass does with that….

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        1. Can’t fault Gabe for this. I’d expect Nola to improve on this numbers, and really it doesn’t bold well for future playoff series if he can’t! Hamel’s, Lee, Halladay were all called on with less… Nola is going to need to find a way

          Like

  72. Nola’s lifetime numbers on four days rest and five days rest.
    As of two weeks ago…..now it may be a little worse.
    Four days — 23-22,,,, 4.52 ERA,,…., in 56 starts.
    Five days — 28-8,,…., 2.60 ERA,,,,,,,,in 58 starts.

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  73. Four or five times, or how many, there are days where no game is played. That gives every pitcher in the rotation an extra day. Sometimes, there are rain outs and the pitchers get two extra days. Leave it like that. I reiterate: Mauch did it with Bunning, Short, and Mahaffey the last two weeks in 1964 and where did that get him? These guys need that extra day occasionally.

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    1. Yes remember that 1964 season…Gene Mauch pitched Jim Bunning between Sept 20 and Oct 4th…..5 of the last 13 games.

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  74. Of the 4 RH relievers the Phillies picked up off of the scrap heap, Nick Vincent seems one they might want to invite to spring training. Other than the game they threw him into with the bases loaded when he walked in the winning run, he’s been really efficient. Morin has an advantage only being 29 years old, but overall Vincent has easily done the best job of the 4.

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  75. My problem is with MacPhail and Klentak. Firing Kapler doesn’t help much at all. And, every time either of them speaks, I am less inclined to want them back.. Klentak talked about how easy it is to 2d guess, and they go back, and even if there was a bad decision, as long as the thought process is good, they are satisfied. Well, the thought process was not good. Regardless of what FiP said, counting on all 4 of the Pitchers to succeed was foolish. No one is second guessing. There are a ton of people who wanted Hamels last trade deadline, wanted upgrades this past off season, and wanted Keuchel in June. Not second guessing, opinions expressed as the situation presented itself. He could have gotten better BP help at the deadline without trading top prospects. He loves to use that argument as if that was the only way to improve. He dumpster dove instead. What top prospect did Atlanta give up for Melancon? None, they ate $. For the last time, the young SPs failed down the stretch last year. Klentak did not add a single SP to add to what he had. They failed again to start this season. He failed to add Keuchel for free. And before anyone jumps on me, free from prospects or players. I do not care about the $13Million extra this year. It stops us from doing zero going forward. And, for the record, Kelntak did think we needed SP help. That is why he offered a lot of $ to Corbin. He just didn’t offer enough to close the deal. It doesn’t change the need, he simply chose not to fill the need by bidding more. He then thought no one was better than what we had. Another fallacy, and if the underlying information that you are analyzing is poor, like no one was better than what we had, then the result of the analysis is poor.

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    1. rocco could not have put it any better. 🙂
      I suppose in ten days from now. we could see changes at Citizen’s Way..

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  76. If anyone watched the game today could tell – did Aaron Nola again pitch backwards this game again, using his breaking pitches to set up his FB? I have an operating theory that a lot of Aaron’s problems this year have been with pitch selection, not his stuff. He is much better when he pitches off the fastball and doesn’t go too heavy on the breaking stuff. I don’t know whose fault this is, but I wonder if Realmuto isn’t necessarily the best at calling a game or if he’s being told to call the wrong pitches. Calling is maybe a cather’s most important function and the one I believe is not captured by modern analytics. It’s why Carlos Ruiz was so great.

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      1. Kapler has an explanation for everything. Another exhibit of his utter inability to feel the moment. Nola didn’t have his best stuff and hasn’t been effective in 3 of his last 4 starts. Yet Gabe continues to defy logic and allowed the opposition’s (and one of the league’s) most experienced clutch hitter to beat them when he had the opportunity to bypass the inevitable. It was more than stupid. It was unnecessarily reckless, yet I don’t have enough fingers on both hands count the inexplicable moments of this manager’s disregard for sound reasoning. This isn’t a matter of being imperfect. Imperfect means there’s isolated incidents of misjudgment. This is a matter of chronically bad situational baseball game decision making. And it doesn’t stop. At least not until September 29.

        But that’s not Gabe’s fault. It’s Klentak’s.

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        1. Yes 8mark and don’t you realize if he had healthier relievers and a better rotation, Freeman would not have gotten that hit? Ha.

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  77. Bottom line, 2020 to me is another rebuild year. Too many pieces needs to be add, too many things need to go right, and what did go right needs to stay right for 2020 to make it happen. Replacing Gabe, not sure that fixes it either, the batting and pitching coaches I’d be more interested in. If they sign Cole I’ll change my tune, but … not counting on it. Many think will be in the running, but he’ll go elsewhere. Jayson Stark doesn’t even think they’ll get 1 of the top 3 FA pitchers. Howard and Bohm are going to need some seasoning. 2021 for me.

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    1. Zolecki tweeted the following for those of you that are drinking the Kapler Accountability KoolAid (or lack thereof):

      MLB top 5, impact on teams from injured players and IL (Lost-WAR metric)

      1 NYY 15.54 WAR lost
      2 HOU 8.52
      3 LAD 8.01
      4 MIN 5.89
      5 PHI 5.47

      The poor Phillies suffered so many injuries how could anyone possibly overcome these odds. Poor Gabe, our brilliant tactician, it’s like Matty K asked him to play chess but gave him all pawns and a king. How could he possibly win any games?

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      1. I agree with you “immensely”. (That’s Gabe’s word for how much he trusted Nola in the Freeman debacle. He convinced me…not. Too bad Cesar didn’t handle the double play ball right before that. It wouldn’t have come to that.)

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      2. I’m not an apologist for Gabe, but these numbers don’t show the entire pitcher. For instance, the Yankees lost key players for periods of time all across the diamond and the pitching staff. The Phillies in turn lost 6/7 of their entire major league bullpen. They overcame mccutchen, or at least could’ve, but losing 6 of 7 bullpen guys … not the same thing imo. The Yankees lost mainly bats and a SP, but the bullpen was filled with major leaguers there to help win those close games. On top of that, the yankees were already a playoff team .

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        1. That sounds more like an indictment on Matt Klentak than Gabe Kapler. See my post(s) earlier in this thread about the Phillies farm system under Matt Klentak’s watch. Klentak also chose to basically do nothing at the trade deadline to bolster a bullpen that was missing nearly all of the arms that were originally being counted on to help bolster a weak starting rotation.

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      3. Such lazy analysis….To conclude that this is a result of the manager, then you would have to conclude that there is no talent difference between any of the top 4 teams and the Phillies, which is really silly.

        Look at the replacement players. look at the depth on those teams and their minor league teams.

        Those four teams area ranked 1-4 in offensive WAR this year…the Phillies, 14th

        Those four teams all have better pitching staffs than the Phillies.

        And those four teams all have better minor leagues than the Phillies. The Phillies lose their starting CF and have to replace him with Jay Bruce. Meanwhile, the Astros are calling up players like Yordan Alvarez who has a 1.090 OPS. Haseley shows promise, but only has a .743 OPS. Swap Alvarez for Haseley and see how smart Gabe becomes overnight.

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    2. Wait I was told by at least one of our good posters that we were no longer in rebuild mode….

      It looks like I missed quite the spirited debate yesterday on whether or not this is Kaplers fault. It’s neither here nor there IMO. Nothing is going to change if all they do is replace the manager. that’s not to say I think he is a good manager, I don’t. There are way better choices out there (again my opinion). Kapler didn’t hire himself it’s on this FO trying to be slick.

      Sure minus a few injuries they are 5 maybe 10 games better but who cares they are still so far behind and talent deficient of the best teams in baseball with no real signs this staff knows how to evaluate talent at the margins, knows how to be creative to acquire talent and so on.

      It’s all one big package that needs to go as it is at best just a mediocre package and mediocre won’t bring sustainable winning.

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  78. Not giving Freeman the Ibb yesterday, did he forget to check with analytics? Apparently when he makes out the lineup card and insists on Haseley batting 8th, is that what analytics tells him?

    Seems like he cherry-picks….. And the War numbers on injured players, interesting!

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  79. Instead of “relying on your eyes”….let’s let the players speak about the quality of the manager. Do you think Boras would let Harper lock in a 13 year deal with the Phillies if they had questions on Kapler? Do you think Realmuto would want to be a Philly for life if he thought Kapler was bad? Do you see anyone jumping ship? Complaining about the manager?

    When a manager is bad, the players “leak” negative talk to the press…that isn’t happening here. on the contrary, players love playing for Gabe.

    Maybe, just maybe, the team is exactly where it should be based on the talent and as disappointed as you are with the outcome, the blame is not the manager’s fault.

    By the way, did you know that the Phillies were the 4th best defense in baseball? Does that count for good management? or no?

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    1. Whether its his fault or not it doesn’t bode well for somebody if Zolecki the Phillies talking head is putting out articles about WAR lost to IL

      that’s your classic preemptive strike or defensive mechanism for something about to go down.

      And to say let’s let the players speak you are kidding me with that right. Did you hear Dickerson’s quote the other day? He mentioned liking everything about Philly except for the manager.

      Sometimes its as much about what they don’t say as what they do say.

      Harper seriously with that? He had nothing from any other club, he was getting 13 years $330 he wouldn’t care if you were the manager he was signing anyway. besides he’s seen his share of managers he knows better than anyone they come and they go.

      And Middleton lead those face to face discussions so I’m sure after last seasons end and Middleton’s comments last year about the manager knew he was a stop gap anyway.

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    2. Valid points but just the one when it comes to the agent and the player,

      “Boras would let Harper lock in a 13 year deal with the Phillies if they had questions on Kapler?”
      …seriously yes….the money talked more over the 13 years , than another year of Kapler.

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    3. Uncle!
      Most of us lazy analyzers, including me, are not as hardworking or intelligent as you are so let’s concede the Kapler debate. All detractors, stand down because a better GM will make Gabe Kapler look like Tony LaRussa and Joe Maddon had a kid.

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      1. Just so I understand, it doesn’t matter to you that the Phils are #4 in MLB in defense or #6 in base running, have had poor performance from 4 of the 5 SPs who started the season, have lost 3 of their top 4 relief pitchers and have basically no impact players from the minor leagues coming up to help the team? That doesn’t matter to you because you saw what you deemed bad coaching plays and so it is the manager’s fault that our team missed the playoffs…is that your point?

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        1. No. My point is that he is not a good manager – tactically, leadership style, standing alone from the inadequate talent at his disposal which many people question to what extent he is to blame for the lack of improvement by most under his watch.

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          1. Valid points. I think he should still get to next year later mid way point, then reevaluate from there, twice before season’s end.

            I like his handling of the press, protecting his players. I respect his pitching matchups he goes for, though boring as heck to watch. I dislike at the same time how that style seems to wear the pen out. I don’t like the coaches he picked, and their philosophies. I’m looking to cement who’s decision the batting plan was this year, the pitching I can over look for now. On the batting side, no excuse to not have a top 5 NL offense. That needs to be held accountable.

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  80. Gabe is not above replacement for me I don’t like his managing of the bullpen, but I get it, for matchups. For me, the biggest question I have is who is infusing the batting approach? Is that the coaching or the FO? Imo it’s the coaching. Same with the pitching? Whoever those are, need to go. Players go through a gauntlet to get to the mlb, you need to trust them to do their jobs. Mandating a team approach, needs to stop, and I think it has with Charlie onboard.

    The FO, has surprised and disappointed me. Props for Realmuto. The drafting on the otherhand, while it looks to have improved recently is still leaving me wanting more. Fair to say, It can improve, let’s hope is does ASAP.

    I give Kapler to mid season of 2020, but I think klentak and mcphail are gone at the end of the year, which also is highly probably Gabe goes too, if not, they are all on the hot seat by mid season of next year. There is a lot of chatter by those in the know, and Jayson Stark is really tempering expectations for a nice offseason, not looking good for those guys fromnwhere I’m sitting

    We will learn Of Middleton’s patience this offseason. I wouldn’t want to be anyone of those 3 on the last day of the season.

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    1. As of this morning…OPS 2018/2019
      – JTR: .825/.815
      – Harper: .889/.870
      – Cesar: .718/.748
      – Rhys: .850/.855
      – Segura: .755/.756
      – Kingery: .605/.795

      The biggest drop-off was from Harper…if you really want to blame the Phils coaching for his OPS drop ok, but I don’t buy it. If anything, Harper changed his swing mid-season and improved his stats second half considerably. JTR’s OPS went down a little, But Cesar and Kingery went up a lot and Rhys and Segura are the same as last year.

      Net, net, they are the same group of hitters as last year, with the exception of Kingery. So explain to me how that is bad coaching?

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        1. Sure. Just show me some data to support your claim. Any data. Anything. Find any data to suggest that this team underperformed because of the manager. that is how you debate me. i am convinced by data. not by a fan’s eyes. if you have data that shows that i am wrong, i will readily admit it.

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          2. Why don’t you V1 explain what he’s done that justifies another year? I’ll give you the defense has improved as a result of Dickerson and baserunning due to Paco. So if Gabe gets the credit for those, does he take the blame for Young and Mallee since the pitching and hitting have underperformed across the board? And why don’t you look at OPS+ with your analysis, or look back on mine about a month ago, so you can see data that shows what terrible performance he’s delivered.

            I know you want only data driven arguments, but seriously man, isn’t that why we are here? Because the Chip Kapler and Gabe Kelly experiments have shown it’s not just about having some data. If we had a decent manager, we’d be talking about who should be pitching Game 1 of the NLDS if we win the wildcard game since we already would’ve clinched. We’d be debating who’s going to be on the playoff roster. And as Joel Embiid called that guy for the Nets, Sean “Mr Nobody” Rodriguez would be a name none of us ever heard of.

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            1. Well, you asked me like 6 questions in that post. That is a rhetorical tactic people use when they don’t really want to have a debate, they just want to overwhelm the other side with a word salad.

              I think your main question was, What has Kapler done to justify another year? That is a fair question. Here is my answer.

              – They are above their expected win total based on both Run differential and Pythagorean (which I don’t fully understand but some people prescribe to).
              – The players like him and they play hard
              – Continuity is good for teams. Scapegoating people who are not the problem is not good for teams.
              – As I have said above, their defense and base running have improved. Those are directly coachable skills. Defensive positioning matters.
              – As this article nicely points out, despite losing 6 opening day bullpen pitchers, the bullpen had an ERA better than league average https://www.inquirer.com/phillies/phillies-john-middleton-gabe-kapler-wip-twitter-poll-20190920.html?
              – The Phils have had a team record 55 players this year. It is no easy feat to manage all of those players.
              – I don’t blame him for the #2 starter getting hurt or the #3, #4 and #5 starters pitching terribly.

              That’s my rationale.

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      2. I think it is fair to critique these numbers, but it doesn’t make a case for the coaching staff/hitting philosophy. On the surface, the #’s look OK, but then you have to compare the results against the expectations. JTR, nice year … now if I told you that he’d have a slightly lower OPS hitting in CBP for half his games than the marlins stadium, I think it’s safe to say, you’d of expected a blip up, close or into the .900 elite range. As for Harper and Hoskins, those number comparisons don’t tell me enough. You’d think Hoskins had a good year, not the case. I feel he has regressed. Harper, had to fight like hell to match his as well. Using analytics to take meatballs down the middle of plate imo, has hurt both these guys, luckily they’ve worked through it. Segura has been who I thought he’d be, minus the power, surprised his numbers weren’t up in the 20 range, closer to his MVP campaign with ARZ Kingery, is bad for Gabe’s pro argument, because my understanding is he abandoned the coaching approach, which is a very large factor in his turned around. Lol, I’m not touching Cehe, Rocco will flip 🙂

        Then, compare the results vs other teams player in a year where hr totals have spiked. I think it’s fair to say, you’d expect the team to have better stats compared to where they are ranked offensively.

        All in all, asking your hitters to work the count seemed more counterproductive to this group of hitters, than letting them be aggressive in their approach. Wherever that hitting approach is coming from, needs to be scrapped. It’s not the right application for this group of hitters. You pay Harper what he’s getting, you trust him to do his thing, or you bring Charlie in. If your going to pay Realmuto, same thing.

        I’m still not for blaming Gabe 100%, but the overall club philosophy needs reworked vs trying to make the players fit it. Doesn’t work that way. I fear The Phillies FO has a CHIP Kelly 2.0 mindset, needs to change going forward.

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      3. Hoskins OPS+ last 3 years 162-125-119 it should have gone up not down hitting in front of Harper

        Realmuto-112-126-106 again why didn’t it go up if only for park factor

        Segura-111-111-93 again park factor alone should have seen an improvement

        CeHe-110-94-92

        Harper-156-133-122

        Franco-79-106-80 why couldn’t he build on such a marked improvement the year before?

        Herrera-104-93-64 maybe not fair to include him because of the DV incident but still they were counting on him going into the season.

        Kingery not really enough data but a marked improvement over last year for sure
        0-61-101

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        1. Good points. Thanks for researching the data and sharing facts. I didn’t look at OPS+,.

          But looking at it now, how could Rhys and Cesar have an OPS higher this year and have played in the same park and have a lower OPS+? Do you know how that could happen?

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          1. Because hitting as a whole has improved dramatically this year. So, in context, although the player’s raw OPS has improved, he’s actually lost ground relative to his peers.

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        2. I had a post, stating this, without the actual OPS+!numbes, not sure it will make it to the thread.

          I think it is fair to ask, or at least look into the “why” of these numbers are declining. These are some the games top hitters to get a fair evaluation from. In addition, besides the ballpark factor, this year the league has seen more offense than the last too, so you’d also expect a bump.

          To me, the major reason for the dip is the batting approach being implemented. That’s is looking at either Kapler and his crew, or is being mandated by the FO. That has to change, it doesn’t work well enough to compete against the best of the NL.

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  81. As for the bullpen, let’s not pretend that we lost Rollie Fingers, Mariano Rivera and Dennis Eckersley. They were certainly major league pitchers, but not exactly irreplaceable. Which of course is on the GM. Gabe isn’t to blame for the AAAA dreck he was left with but only the slapdash manner in which he used them.

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    1. I don’t get this argument. He took a bunch of bullpen bums and somehow got them to keep them in and win some ballgames. I view his management of the bullpen to be impressive, not bad. And, sure the starting pitching was horrible, but unless the manager is a former pitching coach, I don’t blame that on him directly in any way. They need a new pitching coach and philosophy. The starting pitching on this team is so bad that I view it as something close to a miracle that they are still in the vicinity of WC spot this late in the season. I just don’t see the primary failings of this team to be Gabe’s fault – it’s a GM/President issue as far as I can tell.

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        1. Maddon is 66 and formerly the manager of the excellent but financially limited Tampa Bay Rays organization. Chaim Bloom is currently VP of their baseball operations. Hopefully there are people from within TB’s ranks with whom John Middleton has pursued feedback regarding what may be his most challenging period as controlling partner of the Philadelphia Phillies.

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    2. I’d rather lose a starting positional player, SP, Bench player,and a bullpen piece (closer) than to lose 6/7 of my bullpen weapons.

      I think the team with the injuries spread across the team vs the team with concentrated injuries in the same area, as the pen, will have a better record, and an easier time correcting/weathering. What major league team has a deep Major bullpen and depth in the minor leagues? It’s a crap hand. I’d hate to have a performance based job and have to go to battle with a AAAA bullpen to counter the worlds best hitters. Ain’t going to end well.

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    1. LOL! (sorry, 8mark)
      Honest to God … it just seems like too many people take Angelo Cataldi’s words as gospel. Cataldi/Eskin get paid handsomely not for their knowledge of sports, but for their ability to take and spin the most extreme opinions. By doing that, they attract more callers/listeners/ratings. They’re entertainers, not sports reporters. DO NOT take them seriously.

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      1. Yeah, Hinkie. FWIW, I can’t stand either Howard Foreskin or the obnoxious carnival barker in the morning. It just seems some people have no room for opinions that don’t spew data. I don’t mind the ball busting from guys like you who actually contribute something and know how I roll. Just getting weary of all the love for the Happy Cyborg and his Ivy League boss. They all need to go. And firing Klentak alone leaves Kapler with a bigger bullseye on his back, and vice versa. Their joined at the brain, as far as I’m concerned. How can they be separated?

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        2. I will agree that Kapler only goes if it’s a total overhaul. MacPhail is replaced by Chaim Bloom, who picks his own GM (or assistant GM) and manager.
          Kapler shouldn’t be the fall guy for this season.

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      2. Just because we don’t agree with you, doesn’t mean we listen to Eskin or Cataldi. That’s like saying because we’re Eagles fans, we throw snowballs at Santa. Makes for an easy punchline. I’ve shared data that comprehensively shows a lack of improvement across the board under Kapler, im waiting for comprehensive data that tells another story than blaming injuries. And I do agree with you on ousting MacPhail and hiring Bloom, a great idea.

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  83. The biggest disappointment in the starting lineup is Rhys Hoskins. So often, in crucial situations he fails to deliver. For a few games he gets his swing back and then loses it again. The team needs a big bat in the lineup to complement Harper. Given the lack of depth in the farm system, management is going to have to spend big bucks. Dickerson and JT need to be retained and a solid SP or two must be found. Management might also consider signing Rendon and putting Bohm at 1B in late 2020, if Hoskins continues as he has.

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    1. Regardless of whether you keep Hoskins long term, if Bohm can handle third, being there is his highest and best use. You can always buy a slugging first baseman – but good hitting third basemen don’t grow on trees.

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    2. Rob…I would not give up on Rhys just yet and the Phillies will not either.
      As I posted before, his situation is akin to Pat Burrell’s 15 years ago.
      Both have similar batting traits and approaches at the plate.
      Hoskins needs to make the adjustment……whatever that may be.
      Burrell’s lasted a season plus if I recall….I believe Hoskins will make the correction.

      As to signing Rendon…..I doubt Klentak will go in that direction…he already has JTR in his cross-hairs for the next big signing, then I expect a TOR.
      And Bohm has been working hard at third….I think they will give him a leash of at least two years before moving him off third.

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  84. I am a Rhys fan, and to me, he is 10 HRs and 20 RBIs off what I expect. I believe it is due to his taking too many FBs. I would take the increased production at the cost of 20 less BBs. v1, you like Kapler, I understand. Where do you think the team needs to go to make the Playoffs next year? A new GM, Gerrit Cole, both, or not possible?

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  85. Here is my bottom line on 2019…we bet big on three young SPs and all of them failed. All of the other stuff is noise IMO. Our record when we get a QS is awesome. It just happened too few times.

    In our 78 wins, our ERA was 2.21. In our 73 losses, our ERA was 8.37. Compare that to the Dodgers. In their 98 wins, they had a 1.80 ERA. In their 55 losses, their ERA was 8.37.

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=p&team=PHI&year=2019

    It was a calculated bet, but it didn’t work out. Vinny, Eflin and Pivetta have all under performed. I don’t blame Klentak for making that bet because if they perform, then we have 3 young, controllable SPs. If 2 of them perform, then he probably sells the farm at the deadline to get another SP. but realizing none of them performed, he decided to upgrade in the FA market.

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    1. The decision to bank on those three was not made in a vacuum.
      I heard Gabe actually say that based on their ’18 FIP, he was confidant they would take the next step up in 2019. And he also said FIP was one of the better tools for determining pitcher projection.
      Now he may have been chiming the company line as dictated by Matt Klentak….but I do not think that was the case.
      If Gabe was not comfortable with that, IMO, Klentak would have moved after another starter in the off-season.
      I think Gabe was on board with the three returning.

      But young pitchers can be so unpredictable, ie Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha, Kyle Freeland, Mike Folty to start this year….and there are more but I cannot recall everyone right now.

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    2. I hear you and I don’t mind that they kept all three pitchers and gave them a try. What I do mind is their not hedging that bet with at least one or two other experienced guys who would compete for those roles and in not picking up Keuchel while it was clear the experiment was failing. Those were the big mistakes.

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    3. I had no problem starting the season with Eflin/VV/Pivetta in the rotation. I was less certain of Pivetta, but I was willing to give him 1 more shot. Also, I felt the Phillies had the pitching depth to absorb any injuries/ineffectiveness in the rotation. But the worst case scenario happened. All 3 struggled, the depth struggled, and Arrieta got hurt. So I don’t blame management at all for starting with the season with VV/Eflin/Pivetta. I will blame them if Pivetta is in the rotation next season. As for signing Keuchel, the Phillies should have done it especially on a prorated 1 year deal. On half a season,the Phillies should have rolled the dice with Keuchel instead of trading for Vargas.

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    4. Can’t fault them for this. I advocated for tis, and at the time, I’d make the same bet. I’d do it again too. Hitting approach is another story for me.

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  86. Tonight Phillies face a budding ace of the Indians, Shane Beiber.
    A 4th round pick by the Tribe in 2016.
    Little fact….as one of D1’s better starters in 2016, he got pummeled by Spencer Howard’s Mustang club three years ago. They lit him up.
    If there is any pitcher I think Spencer Howard can progress into next year or 2021…..it would be someone similar to Bieber.
    Howard has better velo right now and seems to have more swing and miss….and Bieber has that wipe out slider going for him.

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  87. catch, 100%, I agree with you. Expecting, and counting on, all 3 to progress was the bad bet. No one advocated replacing all of the them. Let all 3 compete for 2 jobs. But, that didn’t happen. I will never understand not getting Morton. Then, after they all started poorly, we had a chance to add Keuchel. Another pass. With all the other issues, BP, RISP failures, injuries, we would still be in the Playoffs with another SP.

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    1. Agreed it was foolish and puzzling missed opportunity for an organization pulling out all stops to get to the playoffs. It was just about spending a little more money and nothing else. It made no sense.

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      1. I would hope, this off season, that they finally learn the lesson that their own experiences have taught them time and time and time again – STOP ACQUIRING OLD RELIEF PITCHERS ON BIG DOLLAR CONTRACTS!!! STOP! NOW! DON’T DO IT!

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        1. As i have mentioned previously, old relief pitchers (30+) are the only ones available in FA. If you don’t agree, you should tell us who you want. If you do find a relief pitcher under 30, odds are his career effectiveness is not that great, that’s why they are available. As an example, look at Ranger Suarez. He’s currently 24, and pitched well in relief. If he’s effective for the rest of his arbitration years, he enters FA at age 29, turning 30 in August 2025. Hector Neris has been effective for the Phillies 3 out of the last 4 years. He’ll be a FA when he’s 32. And guaranteed, barring injury, somebody is going to pick him up.

          There’s no such thing as a young good FA reliever.

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          1. They are going to have to figure something else out because filling the bullpen with old top dollar FA pitchers who are not elite is a recipe for disaster. I’d rather go with young arms and reclamation projects, but putting your money into this class of pitcher just seems like a complete waste. But the moral of the story is that you better develop your own bp arms, no? Yet another FO issue.

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            1. Yes, the best bet to get a controllable young reliever is to develop your own. However, you will have to go through the inevitable growing pains.

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            2. If they are so inclined and willing to commit, they might want to sit down with Vince Velasquez, envision him to be a potentially lights out high leverage reliever and work with him to develop the mindset. If he still sees himself as a starting pitcher, they may have to lobotomize him into reality. It could work if he understands he could etch quite a career for himself as he approaches his late 20’s-early 30’s seasons.

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      2. I think this is partly where the ambivalence about which Ken Rosenthal wrote 2 weeks ago. Go all in throughout the off season and then screech the brakes on genuine pitching improvements in season, and with cash, not prospects. It was a conflicting path. Is this a team contending for playoff relevance? Or a apprehensive front office dipping its toes in the water to see if the temperature is just right? It made no sense. MacPhail didn’t seem supportive of the first and Klentak didn’t seem to be able to navigate the latter. That’s the picture of ambivalence. And where Middleton weighed in and at what points is for now merely left to our speculation.

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      3. Here’s the hard part Catch…everyone on this board complains that the Phillies don’t let their young players play and develop. So they did that this year based on FIP as Romus correctly said and they get pummeled for it. I don’t think the issue was money. I think the point they were making was that they wanted to give these kids innings. They already had Nola and Arrieta in the first 2 spots. They had three promising young arms for 3-5. if 2 of them pan out, then they only need a 5th starter. if 1 pans out, then they need a 4th and 5th, which is still easy to get. that all 3 bombed and then Jake broke down killed it all. too much to replace at one trade deadline. They bet big on young players and it didn’t work.

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        1. It was my understanding that 2018, not 2019, was the year of testing the 3 amigos. They banked everything on FIP metrics to decide ALL 3 were sufficient for the starting rotation this season. Has FIP been that reliable of a determinant projector for future success? If not, which ones are, or is there conflicting ideas about that? Help me understand….

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          1. 8mark….FIP and xFIP have been used by most analytical teams for their pitching staffs.
            Is it reliable?…nothing is 100%. Anomalies occur. But they continue to use it…so I assume it has a certain degree of reliability….you can essentially think about FIP as a pitcher’s ERA if that pitcher had received league average defense and league average luck. In fact, FIP is actually a better predictor of future ERA than current ERA which tells us that the difference between ERA and FIP at a given time is at least partially due to things outside of the pitcher’s control…if that makes any sense to you. In essence…read FIP like ERA….now xFIP is essentially the same but takes into account HRs.
            Bottom line….they took the calculated risk and missed on it.

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          2. There is no single stat that predicts future success of any player, let alone a pitcher. It is a combination of stuff, location and certain stats. And of course, there is huge variability. They may have been awful this year and come back and be amazing next year. Just look at Charlie Morton’s career.

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            1. I would guess the metrics used by most teams in evaluating pitchers would be, if you’re going to look into stats for pitchers, then it should be at a minimum K%, BB%, HR/9, BABIP, (yes even this for pitchers….around.300 is league average) GB%, FIP, xFIP, and maybe WAR …all of these will giving you a much richer picture

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            2. I don’t and can’t blame them for the whole BP except Hector Neris going down – there’s no way to plan around that level of loss and they did the best they could. But relying on 3 young starting pitchers who seemed to regress at the end of 2018 was kind of a foolish strategy in my view. There should have been at least one and probably two experienced arms competing with the inexperienced young guys.

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        2. I was in favor of letting the three begin in 2019, where they left off in 2018…all the analytics pointed in that direction. And I was not on board, like some on the site, in going after Patrick Corbin with a large contract.
          So it was a gamble or risk that they missed.

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  88. Let’s take what you are saying, v1, as what the thought process was. Forget any argument about using FiP as the determining factor. How do you not add another SP, not 3? That is my complaint, not that they gave the kids a chance. All 3 would have had a chance to earn the remaining 2 jobs. What is the downside? All look great, and one of the 3 has to excel in LHV, until there is an injury, or something else goes wrong? Dial ahead to June where all 3 were, shall we say, less than successful? What is the excuse for no Keuchel?

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    1. Going into the year, I don’t do an darn thing different. Nola is coming of a CY type year, Arrietta looked nasty in SP, had surgery that many thought hindered his 2018 compaign, and the all 3 of Pivetta,Efflin,’and VV were slated for a breakout per the FIP numbers. Gambling that 1 would come through, is good oddsz. You had a very solid bullpen on paper, the offense looked ready to pop, so you go into the deadline looking to add a SP for the playoff push. Can’t fault anything here, looked like a very legitimate playoff team, and not pie in the sky chances. Fast forward, biggest reasons why this team is not heading to the playoffs is not taking care of business against the marlins, not signing Keuchel (still smh), and the batting approach. I don’t see how taking a beach ball size fastball down the middle helps you score runs. 2 of those can possibly be pinned on the coaches.

      Unfortunately , I don’t see it ending well next year well either. Cole feels like a pipe dream, but is exactly what this team needs. I can’t expect the FO to rebuild an entire bullpen in 1 offseason, plus fix the SP. it’s too much imho, 2021 it is.

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  89. Last night:

    Alec Bohm … 4 for 5 (including a double), 1 R, 2 RBI
    Mickey Moniak … 2 for 6 (including a double), 2 R, 2 RBI
    Connor Seabold … 3 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 0 BB, 5 K
    JoJo Romero … 1.1 IP, 3 R (1ER), 3 H, 2 BB, 1 K

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    1. Alec Bohm is really someone to get excited about. Connor Seabold was below the radar but he’s become very intriguing along with Ethan Lindow.

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  90. One other thing about our pitchers – one guy I’m NOT worried about is Aaron Nola. His pitch selection has been odd at times and he’s struggled a bit with command, but my lord, the stuff is all still elite. I believe in him in a big way.

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    1. Neither am I concerned about Aaron Nola. I am however concerned about this regime counting on him being the long term lone horse of starting rotation.

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    2. If one wants to criticize the manager, it could be the current way he has used Nola over his last six starts……..five days rest is the norm between starts, however Nola has been given the extra day periodically thru the season before August 20th when

      Gabe made his decision on what he planned on doing down the stretch.
      The first two starts Nola was superb vs the Red Sox and Marlins, then the next two vs the Reds and Braves were clunkers, again Boston was exceptional and yesterday vs the Braves below average for him.

      Nola has been average and inconsistent since that first game against the Red Sox last month…the 33 starts are equal to his max….and he is due at least one more.
      Understand Gabe had no choice…since the other starters have not been consistent thru the season….however Eflin , Smyly and now even Vinny have shown more over the last 3/4 weeks.

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  91. Agree on Nola, but this off season we also have Arrieta to worry about. Who know what he can do after surgery. To me, I pencil him in as #5, sign Cole and Smyly, Eflin is in my Rotation and Vinny is the long man out of the BP. Pivetta is in LHV with a Sports Psychologist, because I think his issues are mental.Spence will be ready to come up mid-season.

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  92. Here’s another round of “would you?” this winter:

    Would you trade Adam Haseley, Nick Pivetta, Adonis Medina, and Deivy Grullon for three years of Matthew Boyd?

    Would you trade Zach Eflin and Nick Williams for one year of Mike Minor (Phillies could hit him with a QO after the one season)?

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    1. Are you suggesting both? Or pick one of the two? I like the 2nd trade. I’ve cooled on Boyd since the deadline.

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    2. If Grullon is not protected in November, then he becomes a Rule 55 minor league free agent and can go where he wants.
      So another catcher has to be substituted in that trade.

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    4. Hinkster – like your second trade but not a big believer in Boyd. Anything received for NIck Williams would be wonderful as the team has diminished his value. Meanwhile, Eflin is the only one of the 3 amigos who can actually pitch effectively – albeit inconsistently. Minor pitched above his norm this year but is still a good mlb pitcher.

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  93. Okay. So does anyone have any insight on why Gabe wouldn’t use JTR as the DH tonight? I consider it to be a concession. Realmuto hasn’t been great at the plate lately, but Knapp is already a serious offensive downgrade. He’s spelling JTR behind the dish. That’s fine. Bruce hasn’t gotten into any rhythm offensively since returning from the IL, yet Kapler is batting him cleanup. I don’t know. Tonight’s looks like another one of countless ill conceived lineups, and with the team still “scratching and clawing” with 11 games to go, wouldn’t you bite the bullet and go with a more advantageous lineup. Does it even matter? Gabe insists they aren’t quitting. But his choices at times suggest orherwise.

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    2. ….and Brad Miller in the 5 hole….invaluable. God forbid Haseley bats 5th with Miller down further in the lineup.

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    3. I guess I should be grateful Sean Rodriguez isn’t in the lineup. I wonder if Kapler and Klentak had a talk, or were “talked to” about that aberration.

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      1. Just wait until we’re mathematically eliminated and SRod is starting games. That will be just the best

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  95. Another successful night for Phillies prospects in the AFL.

    Nick Maton 3 for 5 (HR), 1 R, 2 RBI.
    Alec Bohm 2 for 3, 1 RBI.
    Josh Stephen 2 for 4
    Spencer Howard 3 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 1 BB, 2 K’s (95-97 T98)

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  96. A very telling stat from Corey Seidman – the Phillies are batting as a team .334 on fastballs down the middle of the plate. Sounds okay but it ranks 25th in MLB. Also, their slugging percentage is 60 points below league average on the same pitches.

    Whatever the hitting approach, it’s gotta be addressed in a dramatic way….

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    1. 8mark……two hitters who can change that ‘FB miss-in-the-zone’ going forward are Haseley and Bohm…see v1’s video below
      Their past metrics reveal a very small delta between BB% and K%…which indicates less swing and miss and more contact.
      Two hitters I am surprised with are Hoskins and Kingery…maybe this year is just an outlier for both.

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      1. Romus, I would love to know by surveying the Phillies position players, which have bought into or are buying into the present hitting philosophy. Hoskins and Kingery appear to be all in, unfortunately. Harper seems to roll his own with periodic changes to his stance.

        While we’re at it, does anyone find it odd that Klentak and Kapler were conducting exit interviews this past week in Atlanta. Is that something new? Because I’ve always assumed those were done at the end of the regular season, or at least after the team is mathematically eliminated.

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        1. 8mark…….good question. Unfortunately guys wo=ill buy in in the cages, but once they get into the box in real live action…they revert back to their habits that got them there. Just happens.
          So hard to say who has changed or modified, or has not.
          All that major change stuff has to be done way back in their minor league days.
          Once there in the majors…I assume it is more or less tweaking here and there.

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  98. Seriously guys…I know there are many here who don’t believe the Phillies would or could possibly pursue Anthony Rendon. Nor would I on the surface of the way things stand. But with Bohm’s offensive promise and defensively uncertain future (3b? 1b? LF? if only in the eyes of decision makers), I’m getting the sense that there’s more beyond any speculation. With G. Cole as by far the prize of the free agent market this winter, and the less than likely possibility that the Phillies will sign him, there may be avenues pursued beyond free agency. A trade for a relatively young and controllable TOR may involve Rhys Hoskins. We can argue, why sell low on him? But that’s also to assume his market value will inevitably increase again later. Perhaps it will, but to what extent would anyone bank on it. Just something to monitor as we approach the unknown of the off season.

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    2. Unless MLB changes the make-up of the balls again for 2020….cannot, for the life of me, understand why they are not using the current MLB/Triple A balls in the AFL…all these guys are , for the most part, less than year away from making their MLB debuts.
      I can only understand if MLB plans on again altering the balls for next season..

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      1. I just had breakfast with four AFL pitchers. The ball is not the minor league ball nor is it the major league ball. It’s somewhere in between. Also it was an automatic strike zone in last nights game…not sure what to think of that.

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          1. Thanks for the info, Mr. H. I had no idea they used the auto-zone last night (I’m not a fan). Did you eat with Spencer, Connor Seabold, JoJo Romero, and Zach Warren? Warren is from my hometown.

            Happy to see Spencer (really all of the Phillies prospects) doing well in Arizona.

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            1. Spencer, Zach, Erich Uelmen (Cal Poly now Cubs) and Alex Lange. Those four and Seabold are sharing a house. Great kids! Love hearing the stories!

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        2. From what I had read a few months ago when Justin Verlander and a few other pitchers began voicing their displeasure with the tight balls……that the KBO League were experimenting with a new ball this year to cut their ‘offense’ down from previous years…..and MLB was monitoring the outcome….and it was successful, the offensive production was cut across the board…..ie OPS went from .783 to ,733 this year for a specific time frame

          Perhaps MLB are experimenting with that ball in the AFL.

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  100. We have gone back and forth on Gabe and Klentak moving forward, and while I don’t think firing Kapler without dramatically changing Klentak’s approach will have any positive results, reading the tea leaves seems to make it clear that Kapler is gone. On Spencer, what does it mean that “we can close the book on Spencer Howard”? Is that the only appearance for him in the AFL? And, I am excited about Bohm, and don’t see a pursuit of Rendon at all.

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  101. As I wrote before, Nick Maton is a lot like UConn’s Nick Ahmed. Both are solid fielders and could be .275 hitters with pop. Maton has an advantage of being a LH hitter.

    Hoskins looked really bad last night both at bat and on that throw to 2B. He might be pressing because Carlos Santana, who he replaced, is on the other side.

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    1. As I have mentioned before, Nick Ahmed is a plus, plus defender. If it wasn’t for Brandon Crawford, Ahmed would have more than 1 gold glove. In fact, Ahmed might win another one this year.

      So Nick Maton would have to be one of the best defenders that the Phillies have in their system.

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  102. I am not suggesting that 8mark is wrong, just that I would be shocked if we move Rhys. I think with a better hitting coach and a more aggressive approach, Rhys is a 40 HR 100 RBI guy next year.

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    1. Rhys definitely has the eye but it’s too particular. He has to become more aggressive and swing at FB strikes early in the count.

      As for moving an existing bat, perhaps trading McCutchen is a distinct possibility if they were willing to eat salary in order to acquire worthwhile prospects?

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  103. Drew Smyly has pitched pretty much to a 3rd of the season for the Phillies. He’s 30, and he would be on pace for 1 WAR for a full season. He’s pitched like a 4 for the Phillies, and in his career, he’s pretty much pitched like a 3-4 (mostly 4). And we want to give this guy a multi year deal and hope he gets way better than he is now at his age? I would rather roll the dice with VV to start the season and if he falters, have Spencer Howard come up in May.

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    1. Assuming by midseason 2020 we have Nola, Arrieta, Howard, Eflin and an acquired #1 or #2, I don’t think we need to roll the dice on a guy like Smyly. But a depth starter or two should be in place.

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      1. YES! The lack of depth killed us this year and you want a depth starter with some potential upside – for the right price Smyly’s a good gamble.

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  104. Can’t ague there, but if we don’t get Cole, where is that TOR coming from? I don’t see MadBum, at all, as an option for us, and then we drop a lot to the next tier. So, back to the trade route. I trade Bohm and Howard even less now than I would have at the deadline, and there was a zero chance I would have traded them then.

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    1. IMO, who else to consider who will be out there beside Cole……maybe TOR potential, probably not however. (age)
      Dallas Keuchel (32)
      Wade Miley (33)
      Jake Odorizzi (30)
      Rick Porcello (31)
      Hyun-Jin Ryu (33)
      Michael Wacha (28)
      Adam Wainwright (38)
      Zack Wheeler (30)
      Alex Wood (29)

      …not a very earth-shattering list.

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      1. Zach Wheeler and Madison Bumgarner are the two on the next level below Gerrit Cole. They’ll probably get less years (five) than Cole (six). Either of Wheeler or MadBum would be a huge upgrade for the Phillies.

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        1. Zach Wheeler has an injury history, but because of it, his mileage is way, way less than Bumgarner. Wheeler has to be the guy if we can’t get Cole.

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        2. I think Cole gets 7 years at the very least. You don’t get paid for past performance, right? Well, not exactly – his Cy Young type year will get him a lot more money and more years.

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  105. Hinkie, I think the next target after Cole is Wheeler. I just don’t think Bumgarner moves from the West Coast, and if he leaves SF, which is far from certain, I see him with the Angels. No argument about Wheeler being an upgrade, I am just all in on Cole. I think we can outbid a team like the Angels, and I don’t see him in NY or with the Dodgers. I think it costs $200 Million, but I would go get him.

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    1. matt13….Middleton will need to go the distance with Cole and Bboras.
      Right now Kershaw and Greinke head the list at approx. $34M AAV…then there is Price at $31M, Verlander at $29M…so they al have different factors with age, but I think with Cole will have to start at 6 years and $3)M AAV and perhaps inch their way up during the negotiations.

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  106. I think the Phillies need to be really careful not to “sell low” on too many players if they do in fact change out this manager and coaching staff. I don’t mean the Phillies should necessarily rely on any of Franco, Herrera, Knapp, Williams, Quinn, Pivetta, Eflin, or Velasquez for an important and specific role but I would keep many of them around with one last chance to develop with improved leadership. I think we all agree there is untapped potential in varying degrees with all of them. The talent is there for all of them to be decent or better major leaguers, whether they realize that or not is TBD, but I’d hate to write all of them off and see them succeed elsewhere.

    As for Rhys, I’d again be careful as there is much more offensive potential in there than what Kapler has been able to extract. Same for Kingery.

    I’d also be careful to write off some of our injured arms. While I’ve heard Middleton has tasked the FO to investigate the rash of injuries, the findings are not yet known. However, it can’t be a coincidence that they’ve all transpired and I’m glad to see the Phillies are willing to acknowledge that and seek corrective actions. In addition to a new manager and coaching staff that can work with the training staff to re-evaluate off season and spring training preparation efforts, the Phils should also evaluate their medical and training staffs for any necessary changes. It can’t be coincidence that guys like Cutch, Robertson, Bruce, Arrieta, Hunter, and Neshek who had reasonably good health elsewhere, immediately struggled here. Not to mention the rash of young pitchers, which is not normal for one team – Ramos, Arano, Morgan, Dominguez, Eickhoff, etc

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    1. Buddy … you and I may not see eye to eye on Gabe Kapler, but I am solidly behind this line of thinking. No matter If Gabe is back or not, Chris Young will not be. The team needs to replace him with a guy who has a track record of developing young pitchers. In the past, I’ve suggested Dave Righetti, John Farrell, Ray Searage, Kyle Snyder, and Brian Sweeney for the job.
      Recently, I heard Jim Salisbury label Nick Pivetta, Maikel Franco, and Nick Williams as guys in need of a change of scenery. I could see Franco being non-tendered (I think the team has had it with his inability/unwillingness to take instructions – i.e. keeps reverting back to same old bad habits). I think Williams may be out of options (not 100% sure about that) so he’s probably going to have to be dealt. However, I want to see if one of the aforementioned pitching coaches can unlock the mystery that is Nick Pivetta. The Phillies/every team can use arms. I’m not saying the club should be saving a rotation spot for Nick, but I think he should be given one more opportunity (with a new voice tutoring him) to earn the job.

      Also … I’m almost positive Rhys Hoskins isn’t going anywhere. Not only would they be selling low on him, but more importantly, the Phillies love to market their homegrown guys. Hoskins is the primary homegrown player they sell to fans. He’s like family to the team.

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      1. I agree some of those names need a change of scenery, but I think a new manager and coaching staff is a change of scenery.

        For the pitchers, I’d keep all 3 and plan for one of them to pitch out of the pen (probably VV) with a role TBD based on success. I’d plan for Pivetta, Eflin, and others to compete for the 5 spot in the rotation and after spring training decide what to do.

        As for Franco, Williams, and Quinn, I don’t believe you could trade any of them for value right now. As a result, I’d keep all 3 but I wouldn’t “plan” for any of them to start, but I’d bring them to camp and see how they do with new leadership. If it means DFA at the end of spring, so be it but I wouldn’t just give them away now for nothing.

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  107. For the sake of discussion, let’s say the Phillies decide to pursue Rendon and are successful. Let’s also say that in lieu of spending big money and years on a free agent starting pitcher, instead they trade for a relatively young, controllable TOR. Who might be a few potential targets? (I know Hinkie would begin with Matthew Boyd. But who else?)

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    1. 8mark..I told you who I would pursue…Rox Freeland. Phillies drafted him awhile back out of HS….he had one of the worst seasons ever when it comes from where he stood in 2018, Cy Young candidate finishing 4th, to where he ended up in 2019.
      He may be due for a correction…I’d offer Vinny and Cole Irvin and see what the Rox do. It is a risk since Vinny has been turning things around lately, but….

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  108. So here’s another piece of data supporting the “against Kkentak” argument. The 5 best free agent relievers on the market this year in some order were Britton, Miller, Kelly, Robertson, and Ottavino. As it would turn out, at least in year one, all but Robertson have made 54+ appearances (54, 64, 69, and 70) and Ottavino and Britton both have WARs of 2+. So independent of how things happen or who is responsible, clearly a missed opportunity there.

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    1. and in a similar “against Klentak” argument the year he did sign Charlie Morton, aka the huge “missed opportunity” cited often on PP, Morton started less than 3 games before being out the rest of the year!

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    2. Yes. Klentak is an idiot for not being able to predict that a pitcher with no history of arm injury would get hurt. How can he not see the future?!?!? We need a GM who will never sign a pitcher who gets hurt.

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      1. So is it the managers fault, the GMs fault, or do you just believe that really awful outcomes happen to the same decision makers over and over and over and it’s just coincidence?

        But then again maybe you’ll make up another alternative fact for us like you did above when you labeled Acuna a RF to make your point that the Braves RF is better than the Phillies. Acuna has played CF far more than RF. But it was convenient

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        1. Acuna started 40 games in LF, 90 in CF and 19 in RF. Acuna is Braves best OF and Harper is Phillies. I was comparing impact OF to impact OF. That said it is really irrelevant whether you consider him a LF or CF for any analysis of the Braves vs Phillies lineup because anyone can see that the Braves are far better.

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  109. Phillies AFL Saturday Round-Up:
    Sept. 21: Glendale 1, Scottsdale 0
    Mickey Moniak went hitless, 0-for-4, as Scottsdale’s No. 3 hitter on Saturday night. He’s 3-for-15, over his first three games with a pair of RBIs. He did make a fantastic catch, robbing Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson of extra bases as he crashed into the center-field wall. No. 14 prospect Nick Maton ….leading off and playing second base, he went 0-for-3 with a walk and is now 4-for-12 with a walk and six strikeouts in three games. Alec Bohm did not play…so far in his two games, he is 6 -for- 8 and splitting time at third base with Jays’ prospect Kevin Smith.

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      1. Nick Maton is in his 3rd year in the Phillies system. He’s currently 22, in AA, and with .660 OPS at Reading. I wouldn’t pencil him in on any future Phillies roster just yet. If he makes it to the bigs, it will likely have to be as an infield utility guy. If he’s lucky, he could hang around on a roster like Freddy Galvis.

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      2. Right now an utility guy.
        But Josh Bonifay did say he has that whippy-bug swing that generous a lot of pack for a guy his size. That is why I saw him as a hitter someone close to or in the mold of the Mets’ Jeff McNeill.

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  110. Great article link below posted this morning about Nick Williams and the death of his big brother a few months ago. Very touching relationship they had and seems like he has just been through a tough year personally and professionally. He refuses to bash the Phillies in the story and mentions the organization has been good to him throughout the tragedy. But there is one line in there I couldn’t help but share as it’s a small thing but not really.

    “Take as much time as you need.” Phillies manager Gabe Kapler has texted him.

    TEXTED? This is where, for me, I think the job of manager is so much more and where this manager just doesn’t get it. Does anyone really think Doug Pederson or Brett Brown wouldn’t call Nick in that situation and have a conversation?

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    1. Of all the criticism that I have heard, this one is my favorite. He should be fired because he texted a player instead of calling him. Absolutely brilliant. Take a bow Buddy. Comment of the year.

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      1. That’s not why he should be fired, he should be fired because he’s an awful manager. This is just another piece of evidence that his soft skills aren’t good enough to be a manager, but then again the tone and commentary that you’ve demonstrated towards my differing opinion on here the last few months should tell me I shouldn’t expect you to understand soft skills.

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        1. Texting a player is not evidence of anything. Also I have built three companies from scratch and sold all three. But please tell me more about how to be a successful manager. Can’t wait to learn from you Buddy.

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            1. I dish out views on other’s opinions. I never attack another person’s character. Go back and re-read Buddy’s comments. A lot of personal attacks about me.

              You got data to refute my opinions, let’s hear it. I often change my view when data is presented. But don’t like Buddy’s personal attacks.

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  111. V1, I do not blame Klentak for signing Relievers who got hurt. I blame him for not doing better after they were hurt to help after the deadline. And while I believe he was wrong in not adding SP in the off season, the real failure was not signing Keuchel in June. I think we make the Playoffs if we sign him, and I believe making the Playoffs should have been the goal for this year.

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    1. matt13……agree with your point on the Keuchel/June signing.
      it certainly could not have been about the money since they are under the ‘cap’.

      I am starting to wonder if it was Scott Boras being Keuchl’s agent….since I cannot come up with any sound reason why they could not sign Keuchel for virtually 20 or less starts and they needed a LHP in the rotation. and also I would have thought with the Phillies and Harper negotiation and final signing , that the Keuchel signing would have been easier with all the comfort relationships already established and in place.

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  112. Wow, a microcosm of the Phillies season in one inning against Cleveland. Phillies get runners on 1st and 3rd in the top of the inning, but can’t score after a pop out (Hernandez) and a DP grounder (JTR). Then, in the bottom of the inning, two consecutive error by the Phillies. Velasquez manages to get a couple outs without giving up a run, and gets ahead 0-2 on the next hitter. He then grooves a fastball which gets hit out of the park.

    So typical – squander a great scoring chance due to poor hitting in an RISP situation and then play bad baseball and groove a pitch, basically gifting runs to the opponent. So frustrating.

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  113. V1, I count 5 wins plus for signing Keuchel, maybe I am off and we still don’t make the Playoffs.Regardless, it’s over, we are out. I want to make the Playoffs next season. Help me, how do we get there?

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    1. A new manager and improved coaching staff will add 10 wins. That would be a good start. A new President / GM would likely help next year but even more so long term with better drafting, development, culture, acquisition of under valued assets, just to name a few.

      Like

      1. If my math is correct, projected over the full season for 2019 Keuchel comes in at a maximum of 3.9WAR over 32 starts…that is based on his 18 starts this year, and 2.2bWAR now.

        Like

        1. Yeah. Maybe we get an extra 2 wins. People forget that he can be much better than replacement and we still don’t win a game that he starts – bullpen blows it, poor hitting day, etc.

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  114. Anyone watching the 7th inning of this game? I’m on a plane so can’t watch, but curious why Gabe brought in a LHP (Irvin) to face Puig a righty with the bases juiced and one out already down 5-1? He then brought in Ramos two batters later to face a righty after Irvin faced a lefty. Wouldn’t it have made more sense to have Ramos face Puig and then Irvin to face the lefty? What am I missing here?

    Like

    1. What you’re not missing is another nationally televised embarrassment that hopefully compels Middleton to clean house. Not that it matters at this point but “no quit” Kapler pinch hit for both JTR and Harper in the 8th. I guess he wants to preserve them for when it really matters. Like, next year when he’s not here?

      Like

      1. ….but it sure was nice of Gabe to allow Deivy Grullon have his first big league at bat in a total blowout, cold off the bench after weeks of inactivity. He K’d. But I’m sure Kapler told him that he presented very well.

        Like

      2. You can question Kepler for a number of things, but pinch-hitting for JTR and Harper in the 8th inning of a 10-1 blowout isn’t one of them.

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  115. A couple of interesting tidbits from earlier today:

    Vince Velasquez has now allowed 16 homeruns on 0-2 counts this season. That of course leads MLB. That alone may cost Chris Young his job.

    When Bryce Harper hits a HR, the Phillies record is 24-7, and it’s 42-17 when he drives in a run. Which means they are 37-57 when he doesn’t. Either Harper needs to become Mike Trout or the Phillies had better find a way to score runs as a team more consistently. Their streamlined hitting philosophy (to which Bryce himself doesn’t subscribe) may need to be replaced or drastically altered.

    Like

    1. 16 HRs allowed on an 0-2 count? By one pitcher in one season? That’s astounding. Makes you wonder about pitch selection in that situation,

      And, yes, the Phillies are far too reliant on Harper for offense The other guys in the lineup haven’t done enough, or been consistent enough. There is plenty of blame to go around, but Exhibit A is Rhys Hoskins, who has become WAY too pull happy.

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    3. I think I saw in a graphic last night Velasquez throws his FB 69% of the time… So is it safe to assume 11 of those were on FB’s? Or one of his lesser pitches that he can’t command that well? I’m sure that stat is out there but it’s Monday and I’m too lazy to look it up. The kid has great stuff. Needs to be refined..

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  116. VV has improved. He hasn’t made a quantum leap but he has improved. His secondary pitches are better. But his command can still be hit or miss. That HR was off a fastball that he couldn’t get above the zone. Including the HR, I counted at least 3 hits on fastballs he couldn’t get above the zone. I still think he’s better suited to be in the rotation.

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    1. It’s funny you say that but I also believe has gotten quite a bit better. I think there’s a good chance that he becomes a solid mid-rotation starter in the not to distant future – you can see him get better now almost by the month – there’s a progression. And if he becomes a solid 5 or 6 inning starter, so what? How many starters these days routinely go 7 innings? If he can give us lots of 5/6 inning, 2 run starts, that’s just fine.

      Like

      1. His FIP 5 plus indicates he still has a ways to go…but his last 7 starts are encouraging….his value may never be higher.
        If he is indeed scheduled for any trading, the Phillies should ask for something valuable.

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            1. I don’t understand why his trade value would necessarily be less than what the Phillies might project him for next year. Wouldn’t it merely take a GM or three who regard his future as highly as them? Or you?

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            2. Well, it wouldn’t necessarily be less, I just think it’s not very much but the upside is real. So I hold on the stock.

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            3. @8mark, VV’s value should be higher next year, but nobody (including the Phillies) knows how high it will be. So in that case, if I’m a GM trading for VV (who’s already 27), I’m not giving up much. Maybe an A ball lotto ticket?

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      2. At this point, I want some measure of consistency. I want to send him out there knowing that there’s a good chance he’s going to give a quality start. I don’t want to plan to have another reliever ready to soak up innings when he can’t get past 4 innings, let alone 5. I want 5-6 innings consistently, and if he gets bombed in some of them, so be it. Everybody will get bombed, including Nola. VV has 2 more years to find a way to be a competent starter.

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  117. One week from today the Phillies, with each passing loss as the season closes, more than likely will need to scour the landscape for another manager.
    They will not be alone in that quest….. two NL West teams will be looking also.

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  118. Hoskins has come up 190 times this season with RISP…..he is slashing .224/.386/.343.
    That just will not hack it.

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    1. Wow, that line for Hoskins with RISP flat out stinks, but I believe it. He has come up small with RISP again and again, particularly since the All Star break. Again, I think he has become much too pull happy. Also, he’s started to swing at pitches out of the strike zone of late, indicating that he may be really pressing. Regardless, he’s been bad at the plate, and his below average fielding sure doesn’t compensate.

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    1. Fuel your car for the ride.
      Cubs will be letting Maddon go also next week…David Ross looks to be the one going to Wrigleyville…….but their issues could be worse than the Phillies with that bloated payroll and tax penalties. Theo has his work cut out for him.
      Hard to believe Cards swept them in four at Wrigley….has not been done in ages.
      Cole Hamels will also be available probably at a reasonable cost…..he really struggled after the oblique issue.

      Like

      1. Unless John Middleton makes the call, I wouldn’t hold my breath for Joe Maddon. Klentak wants his manager to be malleable. Klentak has had his fingerprints all over Kapler’s coaches, lineups, and strategies. Joe Maddon won’t go for that.

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        1. Hinkie, I do believe if left completely to Klentak, Kapler is safe. Any change will have to come from the owner, make no mistake. Hence the placement of Charlie Manuel into the ranks as a recon officer.

          I’m currently dreaming of Bloom as VP of baseball operations, Klentak to continue (in a revised job description) as GM and Maddon as manager. MacPhail takes a side step and agrees to become an advisor/semi-retired at Middleton’s request.

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      2. I like Gabe gets me, Cant handle pitchers. His lineups sometimes are nuts. when they aren’t hitting never plays small to try something different. I totally agree, him text over a death is really insensitive. wonder if he would have texted, god forbid one of the better players, Shows he could care less, not to pick up a phone to say so sorry, you need anything let me know. is that so hard to do?

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        1. rocco……was Nick playing with the Iron Pigs when his brother passed?
          If so, Gary Jones probably made the call….along with the GM, Matt Klentak.
          If it were me, in Gabe’s position…I would have called him….but I am old generation and the new generation is more impersonal with twitter/text et al.

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  120. I will never understand how anyone can like Gabe. Everyone is entitled to there options. But maybe its just me. But he cant handled pitchers. has crazy lineups. People may think its okay. but to text a player and not call him personally in a death of a brother, is it a California thing ?.i guess so insensitive, No respect at all for the player. Wonder if he would have texted , a better player, Owning a company and selling it has nothing to do with being, a caring boss or employer. But I think showing Respect is only for us poor people. Big successful people can shit on there workers.

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  121. As we all have our pros and cons with Kapler, the biggest concern I have is the lack of improvement or in many cases, regression of the major league roster. Especially the arms and bats.

    It can be reasonably argued that this has been Bryce Harper’s most productive non-MVP season, overall. Realmuto has largely been what we expected. McCutchen was on pace for a solid 2019 before his injury. Among the 4 major position player acquisitions, only Segura has had a below par season.

    Now while I wouldn’t necessarily say those players were immune to the present coaching philosophies, they are established veteran players who pretty much already know what they’re doing.

    But when you examine the rest of the roster, who has progressed? Kingery has fallen back into bad habits in the second half of the season. Otherwise he might be an exception. Nola has at times been his brilliant self but his 2019 is nowhere close to his 2018. What other pitcher has improved? What other hitter has become more proficient. Jury is out on how Haseley will turn out. But he’s been a pleasant development as a rookie.

    We’ll give Gabe and his staff kudos for better baserunning and defense. But having Realmuto behind the plate and moving Hoskins out of LF were contributing factors, along with Bobby Dickerson’s work with infielders on tags. Throwing errors seem to still be an issue. Harper has most impressed me with his aggressive baserunning, despite a few misjudgments early on. He seemed to set the example for the rest of the team. Double steals, delayed steals, etc were encouraging signs.

    The lack of urgency, discipline and accountability remain my biggest concerns, however. Those are major as we look ahead to 2020.

    Like

    1. The injuries are the biggest issue.

      It decimated the bullpen, and we had to play relievers who were not ready. The only bright spot has been Ranger Suarez, who looks very comfortable in his transition to the bullpen. Lately, Cole Irvin has been good in the bullpen so looks like his days as a starter might be over too.

      We all know what happened with the starters so won’t get into that again. The biggest issue is that even with all the ineffectiveness, the AAA starters had their share of issues so only Cole Irvin got starts. But Eflin looks to have turned the corner and he should have a rotation spot next year. I`m hopeful that VV gets another shot.

      For the offense, it`s clear who the scapegoat is and it’s not Cesar. Realmuto, Cutch (before injury), Harper, Cesar have been as advertised. Franco is still Franco (not good), and Kingery has improved (maybe not as much as other people want but he’s improved to the point where he needs to start). Odubel was lost early but Haseley has shown up in limited action which was good. So the 2 biggest disappointments are Hoskins and Segura. With his poor defense, Hoskins needs to rip at 1B and he hasn’t in this juiced ball era. Not sure what has happened with Segura. His defense has slipped a little but it`s still positive, but he just hasn’t ripped as much as he should moving from Seattle to Philadelphia.

      So that’s my analysis. What’s next for the Phillies? I’m not the GM, so we’ll see what happens.

      Like

      1. Feel free to pick this apart but FWIW, the Phillies were 5th among all teams who lost WAR value in player injuries in 2019. All 4 of the teams with more are playoff bound. (Somebody posted the top 5 last week.)

        Plus IMO, while we took a significant hit in injuries to the bullpen, with the possible exception of Robertson, I don’t think the staff was terribly strong. Seranthony was definitely missed but is still trying to find his way. Hunter isn’t that much of an improvement over what’s left.

        Starting pitching and RISP were more specifically the 2 Achilles heels of this squad, aside from injuries.

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    1. Yes, Matt – thanks for that correction. The way it was tweeted made it sound like all him. But wow, 16 on 0-2 counts as a team is still troubling.

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  123. Carlos Santana had a really good series while Hoskins stunk the joint out. Many couldn’t wait to be rid of Santana’s contract and celebrated when they did. But no one was happier than Santana to get away from the “toxic atmosphere of mediocrity”.

    Segura was hammered for years by the guys on MLBTR for his poor play in the field. They wrote that he was better at 2B than SS. Overall, he’s been pretty good for the Phils but last night’s error changed the entire complexion of the game.

    On a positive note, it was really good to see Kingery taking that outside pitch to the right side of 2B. It would be great if he would do it consistently. I also believe that he is just as good, if not better than Segura at SS. Not as flashy but steady.

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  124. KC manager Ned Yost has announced he’s retiring at season’s end. Along with SF (Bochy), there’s quite a few vacancies to be filled this fall. Let’s hope the Phillies don’t drag their feet if Kapler is to become one of the unemployed.

    WSH, NYM, PHL, CHC, PIT, SF, SD, KC and SEA.

    I’ve heard 2016 World Series hero David Ross is a virtual lock to replace Joe Maddon in Chicago, although Joe Girardi is reportedly holding out for the job because of his roots in the Windy City. However, I doubt Theo wants an old school guy like him. MLB teams are trending toward managers who profile well analytically and will tow the line. But like all trends, it swings back the other way eventually. If Middleton decides to move on from Gabe, it’ll be interesting to see what type of figure he’s looking for. Madden could be considered a blend of the new math with old school personality. What’s just as important would be who Madden brings along as his bench coach/potential successor, since he’s no spring chicken.

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  125. The Phillies have been without an Amateur Scouting Director since the beginning of September. The only thing I’ve read concerning the opening has come from Meghan Montemurro in the Athletic. She said The Phillies will use the opening as a chance to pick some brains. They love to interview, and they will interview a wide selection of candidates. She also named Greg Schilz (the team’s current Assistant Scouting Director) as a guy who could be promoted from within.
    I don’t know anything about Schilz (he could maybe be a great choice), but I do know there are a handful of MLB teams who seem to do better at drafting than the rest of the league. IMO those clubs are the Dodgers, Padres, Astros, and Braves (in that order). I’d be pretty excited for MacKlentak to go mining in those franchices. Some possible candidates:
    * Zach Fitzpatrick (Dodgers Assistant Scouting Director)
    * Sam Ray (Padres Amateur Scouting Manager)
    * Charles Cook (Astros Manager of Amateur Scouting Analysis)
    * Aaron DelGiudice (Astros Scouting Analyst)
    * Brian Bridges (was released by the Braves in January of this year after serving as Atlanta’s Scouting Director since 2014)

    I think Bridges is the most interesting name on this list, and should be the frontrunner for the opening. While leading Atlanta’s drafts, he had a strong record of picking (and stocking the Braves system with) arms. He was responsible for choosing Mike Soroka, Kyle Wright, and Ian Anderson in the first round. He also selected Austin Riley and Drew Waters with picks outside the top 40. Prior to ascending to Scouting Director, Bridges worked as a Braves’ scout and was responsible for finding/scouting/signing Jason Heyward, Craig Kimbrel, Mike Minor, and Alex Wood.

    And … one last point on Johnny Almaraz. He may be gone, but his 2017 draft class could help the Phillies for years to come. Adam Haseley has the look of the team’s starting CFer beginning next year. Spencer Howard has TOR potential. Connor Seabold, Damon Jones, and David Parkinson are candidates to start (at least some) games for the club. Nick Maton and Austin Listi could be bench players. Any/all of Connor Brogdon, Kyle Dohy, Zach Warren, Jake Hernandez, and Addison Russ may throw out of the Phillies BP. Jake Sheiner was used to obtain Jay Bruce. Lastly, Ben Brown and Jhordany Mezquita are still lottery tickets who could be cashed in one day.

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  127. v1, I was using Keuchel’s ERA over the 18 games, or so, that he pitched for the Braves, and comparing that to what we get from our guys not named Nola. Maybe I am off a game or so, so give us 3-4 more Ws with Keuchel. Add a couple of extra Ws for a decent BP acquisition, better than what Klentak did at the Deadline, and this team, despite all its flaws is in the Playoffs. Those were doable moves, without giving up a top prospect, and frankly, without giving up much of anything. To me, that is on Klentak, not kapler, and I am not very high on Kapler, but I can’t blame him for this lost season.

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  128. I know Rhys has not had a good year, and his #s since the All Star break are really bad. But, I want to see him with a Hitting Coach who knows what he is doing. I saw a lot of his ABs this season, and it was noticeable in the extreme how many pitches he took down the middle of the plate. Kingery, also, needs work on laying off the FB over his head, and swinging at balls low and outside. It may not generate more BBs, but will get him better pitches to hit. He can work on pitch recognition, which is really important, and a skill that Kingery and Rhys can improve. There are programs out there that help hitters with that. I have no idea what we use to teach our hitters, but it is not good enough. With new hitting and pitching Coaches, I expect improvement from within. I expect a TOR, and 2 legitimate “high leverage” BP arms. Bohm is the future 3B, so, to me, either we move on from Cesar, and use a stop gap 3B like Brad Miller, or keep Cesar and start the season with Kingery at 3B. Kingery is the future 2B, so why not bite the bullet this off season and move on? Middleton has to crack the whip and sign Cole himself, like he did Bryce, and make it clear that the Playoffs are the bar for next season, and if they fail, they are gone.

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      1. Guru.. could that be a .trick question? 🙂
        There certainly ain’t many based on recent performance and age….maybe will Smith and Dellin Betances , if healthy…..but no more questionable arms, if at all possible to predict….Robertson was Mr Durable and he collapsed under the tear of a body part

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  129. Will Smith is #1 on my list, Giles, Diekman are familiar guys and I bet there are 10 more that will be available better than what we have.

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    1. If the Phillies are willing to give Will Smith at least 2 years $20M, it’ll get done. Giles is under contract with the Blue Jays so you will have to trade for him. Diekman has had a terrible year, and he hasn’t posted a WAR above 1 since 2016. Soon to be 33, you wonder how much Diekman has left.

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    1. Yes and Connie Mac-intosh has Pirela batting 5th and playing LF tonight in his lineup. Guess S Rod wasn’t available…

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  131. Guru, I would do that deal for Will Smith. The other BP arm will take a little more research. I believe, though, that new hitting and pitching coaches, a TOR and BP upgrades make us a Playoff team next year. I think both Rhys and Kingery have good years, Segura goes up 15 points, minimum, in his BA and the team puts together a better bench than they did this year. Maybe an optimistic view, and getting a TOR and BP upgrades is a little more difficult than me just saying we need them, but we have the $ to get it done, and I believe the Owner has the willingness. And, I would take Joe Madden in a second.

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  132. 3 more HRs in 3 innings tonight. Our Pitchers already zoomed past the team record for HRs allowed. And, you can blame the ball, but our offense must not get to hit the same ball.

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  133. realize Phils have had a bunch of injuries, but how are the Cards and Brewers doing so well?
    For St. Louis, Goldschmidt has been good but not great, Carpenter has been terrible, Molina and Ozuna missed a month plus, Dejong has power but a .210 hitter since the break, they lost Hicks for the year, Mikolas has disappointed.
    Differences are Flaherty and Hudson took the strides we hoped VV and Pivetta would, and Wainwright has pitched the way we hoped Arrietta might.

    Brewers surging without Yelich, got nothing out of Travis Shaw all year, and were without their best starting pitcher for almost 2 months, trotting out Davies, Gio, Lyles, Anderson and Chacin and in position to be the first wildcard- impressive.

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  134. It hurts to see Carlos Santana and Howie Kendrick tearing it up in their post-red pinstripe careers. Just a painful reminder that something is missing here in Philadelphia. They leave, they thrive. Is it the water?

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    1. It’s really that simple – a manager and coaches are here to put players in a position to succeed and get the most out of them they can. If Gabe and friends have proved one thing it’s that people come here and get worse, they leave and get better, and they stay and tread water at best. He can be smart, creative, outside the box, and 50 more great traits, but if a manager in any field, in any industry, is defined by that performance track record, nothing else matters.

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      1. Two straight Septembers of abysmal, lifeless baseball. All things considered, what can possibly be the upside for 2020 with this cast and crew?

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      2. Howie Kendrick player here for 39 games in 2017. Gabe Kapler started managing here in 2018.

        Also Kendrick hit .340/.397/.851 OPS when here. He was traded to give younger players PT.

        Also blaming the manager for a veteran hitter having a down year is silly. It happens everywhere throughout the history of baseball.

        The strongest argument against the management trifecta is what they did to the SPs. They bet on a different system (copied from other successful teams) and it backfired terribly.

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    2. To be fair … Howie Kendrick was very good (excellent) in his half season with the Phillies. He slashed .340/.397/.454 while here.

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      1. That’s true. Fair enough.

        But let’s think about what’s ahead. Joe Maddon entered 2019 as a lame duck manager in Chicago, knowing it was more than likely he wasn’t returning because the ivy dried up for him at Wrigley. Is Gabe Kapler really going to enter 2020 as a lame duck because Klentak couldn’t persuade John Middleton to extend him? Point being, who enters his final year of his contract without an extension and comes back the following year? Mattingly took a pay cut in order to keep managing the Marlins. And why would Miami bring in a new guy before they’re even close to contention. If there is any urgency on the owner’s part to get this show moving forward, why tread water with the same brand of baseball which has gotten old real fast?

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  135. He needs to fire all three and start over. He has given these guys long enough and the results are not there. He needs to treat this as if he has a blank sheet of paper starting from scratch. If that was the case and you could hire anyone you wanted, would you pick Gabe MacKlentak? No, no, and no.

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    1. I’m okay with a clean sweep of the front office but I highly doubt it happens. I definitely think something happens, if only for the sake of public unrest, and Kapler would most likely be the one to go, deservedly (alone) or not.

      Like

  136. Were in the age of analytics and not expensive managers… I’m not sure the market for Maddon and his $5 mil/yr. asking price is that deep. Not saying he can’t coach, he can. It’s just organizations are discounting “old school” managers for the young cost reduced analytics guys.. So if the Phillies will pay his price Maddon will likely be there..

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    1. I don’t believe Maddon is an old school manager. He may be “old” but I think he’s pretty forward in his thinking and is creative.

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      1. I’m not sure Maddon is huge analytics guy as say in comparison to Hinch and the Astros.. Yet we agree he can coach and would make an immediate impact in the Phillies W column… Probably a dumb question but is there a WAR metric for coaches?

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        1. I’m not aware of it if it does but that’s actually a really good idea. Some type of measure comparing actual to projection.

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    2. Agree.
      If Middleton is willing to cough up the money, Maddon will sign on.
      Personally, I think Klentak will not be the deciding guy in the hiring this time.
      Kapler was his hire and Middleton/McPhail gave him the reins….not this time…he will be there in the interviews but that is it.

      Like

        1. I am sure Matt K. will have the opportunity to join in the discussion during the interview process, and provide his input and they will be taken into consideration…..but Midd/MacPhail will probably be the ones to make the call.

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          1. Personally I think that a GM unilaterally hiring the manager presents a potential conflict of interest and a lack of checks and balances of power within the front office. Yes, GM and manager need to communicate and collaborate, but if they are in lockstep on most things, it could be a problem. Three heads are better than two. A VP of baseball operations would serve as the kind of tie breaker when GM and manager respectfully disagree over an important matter. Just my opinion.

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            1. If Middleton no longer trusts Klentak to hire a manager then he needs to fire him. Where does it end? Is Middleton going to let Klentak spend his money on FA’s? Is he going to let Klentak trade the club’s prospects?

              I’ve already posted Middleton should replace MacPhail with Chaim Bloom, and let Bloom run the baseball operations department. That would leave the fates of Klentak and Kapler in Bloom’s hands.

              Having said all this … I still believe Middleton gives this group one more year.

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            3. Hinkie, I couldn’t agree more, if you don’t trust one to make decisions, it’s time to hire someone you do.

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            4. We all know how much Middleton thought of Klentak around the time of the Harper signing, proclaiming him to be one of the best GM’s in baseball. I doubt he’s about faced completely. So my guess is there will be a “message” move to shake up the love shack between Klentak and Kapler.

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            5. Yeah I’m in the camp of firing all three but I think the likelihood’s of what he’ll actually do are as follows:

              1) Fire only Kapler
              2) Fire Kapler, MacPhail moves to advisory role, and he hires a new President (who likely keeps Klentak)
              3) All three come back via a full vote of confidence
              4) MacPhail fires Klentak and Kapler

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            6. Middleton just gave MacPhail and Klentak extensions five months ago….he will not fire either.
              MacPhail could retire, but doubt that will happen since he has a salary noe for three more years.
              Gabe is the one I see going….and he probably already knows his fate, he has been around baseball for 20 plus years and has seen this played many times..
              He is even started growing his beard early for the off-season..

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  137. As it stands now, the Phillies will be drafting 15th in next June’s Rule 4 draft.
    Hopefully they will be taking a close scouting look at the 6/7 SEC live arms and Friday night starters this spring…..Hancock, RHP, Georgia ….Asa Lacy, LHP, Tex A&M….. Ginn, RHP, Miss St…. Wilcox, RHP, Georgia……Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, S. Carolina…..Tanner Burns, RHP, Auburn.
    Wilcox probably has the best velo……and probably one non-SEC guy to hope drops to 15 is e Reid Detmers, LHP, of Louisville, who could still be there at 15.

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      1. Romus … I’m already/have been very excited for the 2020 draft. This upcoming class should be one of the strongest groups available in the past 10 years. It’s going to be very strong on college arms and HS bats, but there are also a handful of college bats who could be in play at 1-15 or 1-16 if the new Scouting Director follows the Johnny Almaraz playbook.
        I mentioned Brian Bridges (above) as a guy who should be front and center in the Phillies pursuit of a new Scouting Director. He (like Johnny A) worked for Atlanta as a scout and then Scouting Director. Bridges has a stellar record on picking pitchers.

        I like Lacy (#16 on Fangraphs BOARD) and Detmers (#32 on the BOARD). I also love DBU’s Burl Carraway (#85).
        Hopefully, Matt Klentak can (finally) deal for a competitive balance draft pick because it looks like the club is going to lose (at least) a second rounder for the third year in a row by signing a TOR pitcher (Cole or Wheeler or Bumgarner) this winter.

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        1. Hinkie…..”Hopefully, Matt Klentak can (finally) deal for a competitive balance draft pick…..”…you and me both, but I have grown to doubt his capabilities or foresight to see the benefit in that plan.

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  138. a couple of things as we wait for the official end of the season, although we knew we were not a Playoff team a while ago. I pretty much was fed up when we had the SD game that Gabe was so proud of when the side struck out in the 9th vs. Yates. Anyway, MacPhail has already distanced himself from the Gabe hire. He told Klentak to be careful because a GM only gets so many Managers. A move to Madden has to come from Middleton. I would love to see Cahim Bloom here and Middleton clean house, but I fear we have to suffer through another season like this one to get that. Draft wise, I am waiting for Hinkie’s analysis. I hope we get the best available College Pitcher.

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    1. Klentak is no dummy. He knows that as the GM with no past successful experience, he has at most 2 manager hires before he gets canned. So when/if Gabe gets canned, he will need to make the right choice or else.

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  139. As this general discussion thread rolls over into this week, I’m reminded that Jim probably has much more urgent matters to tend to. Just taking a moment to let you know you and your wife remain on our minds and in our prayers.

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    3. I second that. God bless and sending positive thoughts and prayers your way. See you at spring training.Hang in there.

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  140. Jim…………you are in our thoughts and prayers throughout the weeks. We wish very much for your wife to be well and wholesome again. May God bless you and strengthen you both.

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  142. With the end of the year coming to a close, I’m looking ahead.

    Outside the box thinking, but … I’ve seen this a few times and it is interesting enough to pursue

    Nola
    Howard
    Efflin
    Arrietta

    Trade Hoskins,Moniak, and Medina in a package for an SP

    Resign Dickerson, and bring in Rendon,extend Realmuto, sign bullpen pieces

    Kingery – 2B
    McCutchen/Haseley- CF
    Harper – RF
    Rendon -3B
    Bohm – 1B
    Realmuto – C
    Segura -SS
    Dickerson – LF

    Franco, Cehe .. do what you’d like with. If they fit on payroll, bench players.

    This is a win now move, that needs a trade for a good SP, with Howard developing. The key is also
    To ramp up the drafting.

    Money wise it will be tough, but should be doable until the young guys can start flowing in – Stott… & …. OK they may need to move mccutchen. Hopefully herrera’s Contract can be voided but I don’t think so

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    1. I’m tracking with you, Tac3. Tricky part of dealing Hoskins is whether you’re selling low on him, or simply getting that TOR you are targeting and letting it fly. Bohm is already getting reps at 1b in the AFL.

      If we can’t/don’t sign Cole, then spend some of that money on Rendon which may actually require less years and $$$. As much as I hold out hope for Moniak, I’d be ready to pull the trigger on that type of high impact deal.

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        1. Rocco, some trade scenarios for you, to get top tier perching

          Kingery & Moniak headline one trade with Hoskins and Medina headlining another.

          Phillies resign/extend Cehe and Dickerson, bring in Rendon 🙂

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      2. I went to Reading a few times this year and follow the Fightin’s on TV and in the boxscores. I’ve seen Bohm at 1B more than a few times. No problem at all. At first people on here said………….they are just getting him abs. I’m not so sure on that anymore. I think when they send someone to the AFL they probably send some instructs on how they want their property used. Maybe they see Bohm as a first basemen, what does the group think? The DH has to come to the NL. If Rhys is still here you have your DH and backup 1B. Yeah, sign Rendon.

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        1. This is true, the DH is likely to becoming. If/when this happens, it would give me pause in the overall deal, but for the sake of continuing down this thought/road…

          It may sound pipe dreamish, but I’m not sure Rendon walks away from WAS. That would be two years in a row, lol, and likely the best way to beat the nats going forward.

          I’d hate to trade
          Moniak and Hoskins … it would hurt, but for a sure thing … and a crowded OF, I’d have to pull the trigger if it’s for that TOR we can’t seem to grow faster than once every decade.

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  143. Speaking of being BOLD, Gabe going with Brad “the Bamboo Bambino” Miller in that cleanup spot today. He should easily repeat that 2 HR performance from last week, right?

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  144. I wouldn’t read too much into the Bohm at 1B having meaning. I think the Phils new approach just values positional flexibility.

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  145. MLB draft rules go with the rare exception that high school bats drop and college one’s rise..Bobby Witt this was the rare exception this year..I’ll be interested in watching the college arms next spring… A friend at USA Baseball gave me some feedback on some of the more prominent college arms that were on this years USA Baseball College team and the comments ranged from interesting to concerning..

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  146. I want to give some praise to Bryce Harper as we end this season this week. We are talking about a 26 year old YOUNG man who has in the past 12 months been in the microscope of free agency rumors, moved to a new city, started playing for a new team, with sky high expectations, while being the husband to his pregnant wife, becoming a dad for the first time, all while getting booed in visiting stadiums all across the country, sometimes brutally nasty comments being thrown his way, trying to carry a franchise on his back to the playoffs for the first time in 8 years, all with massive expectations on his individual performance.

    A year ago this time, I have to admit I thought of Bryce (not knowing him) as cocky, self centered, and immature. Today I sit here thinking of him as humble, giving, and mature. The way he handled all of the above at his age can’t really be complimented enough. I sure know at 26 I couldn’t have done it, or anything close to it. He has been a good citizen, a good teammate, respectful to the city and fans, and an all around class act. He and his family should be very proud.

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    1. Couldn’t have said it better, BB. He and Realmuto are two excellent guys to have as team leaders going forward.

      Like

    2. 100% agree with Buddy.
      For me … Harper, on the diamond this year, gets an “A”.
      Harper, off the field, gets an “A+”.

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      1. Agreed – they totally made the right choice over Machado who would already be a villain here. Harper’s good people.

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    4. 100% agree Buddy..he gets it. Mature beyond his years for all the pressure expectations and downright nastiness from a lot of fans around the league. I hope his family reads your post! I know when someone says nice things about Mickey it goes Way Beyond the baseball field and means a lot.

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      1. Ditto all the positive comments on Harper. He has been superb as a player and ambassador for the Phillies and for baseball.

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  147. As frustrating as Hoskns season has been in 2019……thinking about to a recent prior cleanup hitter in Phillies uniform, and with a similar batting approaches,
    Hoskins is still a bit above Pat Burrell’s worst season as a Phillie.

    Pat Burrell:
    2003….slash-.209/309/404…PAs-599..OPS+–90….K-24%….BB-12%….ISO.-195…wRC+-88

    Hoskins: up to last 10 games of the season.
    2019….slash-.230/367/.467…PAs -677…OPS+-114…K-25%…BB-17%…ISO-.237…wRC+-116

    No doubt, Hoskins will feel the pressure next season to better these metrics.

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    1. If there was ever a player in need of an offseason … it is Rhys Hoskins.
      It’s similar to Cole Hamels (in 2009 when he openly admitted he was looking forward to the season to end).

      Like

      1. I believe he’s tying the knot this winter if I’m not mistaken. Maybe that’ll settle him down? (At least for a while?)

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    2. Think Hoskins struggled with the expectations that came with the addition of Harper to the line-up. He and Harper were both going to be 40/100 guys in the middle of the line-up and lead the team to the post season.

      As the year continued, he has become more pull happy with more upper-cut in his swing. He’s also been a victim of the overall ML trend to throw fastballs up in the zone. His early numbers showed him to be an extremely good low-ball hitter but he doesn’t see many strikes below the waist anymore. He needs to adjust..

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  148. I totally agree with Buddy. I think Harper had a very good year. I think he was excellent defensively and proved to be a terrific teammate and Philly citizen. I think if Cutch did not get hurt, his year would have been even better. I also feel the frustration with Rhys, and his numbers after the All Star break are simply bad. But, I really believe he would benefit from some time off, then time with a good Hitting Coach. I love Charlie, but I don’t think he wants that job going forward. Rhys needs to be more aggressive early in counts, and use the opposite field more. But, I am not giving up on him. I need Bohm to prove he cannot stay at 3B, so I am not investing in Rendon. My money, speaking for Middleton, of course, goes to Gerrit Cole. My approach is, if a Pitcher helps get me to the Playoffs for the next 4-5 years, and I win a WS in one of them, I don’t care about year 6. I do exactly for Cole what I wouldn’t do for Corbin.

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    1. IMO, Rhys needs to be more like Alonso aggressive.
      When I look at Alonso’s hitting…he goes out and attacks the ball where it is pitched.
      Granted his K rate is a tick above Rhys’ and his BB rate is 5 points lower.
      Now when it comes to RISP….Rhys’ BA is .221 and Alonso’s BA is .250
      So there are trade-offs from being patient vs being aggressive.

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    2. Agree, on the allocation for Cole vs Corbin. Cole is a true Ace, Corbin is a 1B/2A. Cole has taken it to another level, he is the Halladay/Lee of this title window.

      To sign Cole, you need to throw caution into the wind and just do it, if not, some other team definitely will. I can see the Yankees making a big play for him.

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  149. Interesting parallel between the ’79 Phillies with newly signed free agent Pete Rose, who had himself a fine season but the team took a step backward, costing manager Danny Ozark his job, before the 1980 world series championship. Flash forward to 2019. Bryce Harper has a very productive first season after signing as a free agent, while the rest of the team lags behind him. Whether it costs the manager’s job this time around remains to be seen.

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    1. I doubt that Middleton is undecided at this point, but if he needs a single straw to break his back, a <=.500 record might do it.

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  152. So three contracts worth a billion dollars over their life, are going to be watching the play-offs…..Bryce, Manny and Mike T.

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  153. If the boys get swept by the Nationals and drop 2 out of 3 to the Marlins, they will end up with the same record as last year. That would be pretty disgraceful. If that be the case, Kaplan is a goner.

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  154. This was a grind, and very disappointing. We went out meekly and weakly, with 18 up and down to end the game against an allegedly poor BP. 8mark, the Phils prior to Pete had some very good years, and just couldn’t get over the hump. We are not there yet, and there seem to be a lot of holes to fill. I can’t wait to hear John Middleton address the media. I hope they leave MacPhail at home.

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  155. In his post game comments, Kapler sounds like he’s either been told already that he’s returning with mere rhetoric, or desperately pleading his case to John Middleton via the media.

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  156. The Cardinals drafted in the 6th round in 2016 a player from Stanford named Tommy Edman. Switch hitter, could player every infield position except catcher… Made good progress through their farm system but he didn’t skip levels so no over-night sensation. By the time he was called up in July due to player injuries the assessment was he was a good fielder that wouldn’t embarrass the club with his bat. After nearly 200 AB’s he has 11 HR’s and he’s batting .298 with a 3.5 WAR. And he’s played 2nd, SS, 3rd and RF all very, very well. All for the MLB minimum. Please Phillies find these gems in 2020…

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    1. Edman….was not even a top 30 prospect in their system last year.
      Phillies could have someone like that in Nick Maton if he gets off next season on a good footing.

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  157. From Jeff Skversky, the 2019 Phillies record when trailing:
    After 6 innings, 7-60
    After 7 innings, 3-65
    After 8 innings, 3-64

    Says a lot about how much the really “scratched and clawed” under the manager. Nobody has heard any players throw Gabe under the bus, but has anybody heard any players publicly support him? From where I’ve sat, it didn’t appear they played for him, hustle or no hustle.

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  158. Jim Salisbury was just on 97.5, stating that from the “vibe” he’s getting, it seems MacPhail and Klentak are returning while the big question mark hovers over Kapler.

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  159. I just can’t listen to Gabe. I really am tired of hearing that his guys give effort and really work at it, today’s added bonus was “maybe they try too hard.” Sorry, Gabe, this is the Majors. They get pad, not for their efforts, but for their results. 8mark showed numbers that indicate we don’t grind and claw, because those teams find a way to win ballgames at a much better rate than 7 out of 60 games trailing after 6 innings. Those teams get commended, not us who failed. You do not get applauded in the Big Leagues for trying hard, you get applauded for winning. Now, I am not blaming Kapler for the way this team was constructed. There are clearly big holes, and that is Klentak’s fault. But, I just can’t stand listening to his Tony Robbins platitudes when this season was an abject failure.

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  161. Another loss, I just don’t know what is wrong with Nola but September has not been a good month. I really think we need a wholesale change in the FO, and I don’t think we get one. Scapegoating Kapler and Chris Young will not help, and the fan base, while not thrilled with Gabe, is too smart to not realize the change in Manager is just a superficial change.

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  162. Oh the irony!!!!! In Nola’s first start under Kapler, he gets pulled after 68 pitches. On what is hopefully Nola’s last start under Kapler, he lets him throw 115 pitches in the first game that literally means nothing after being eliminated.

    Talk about someone just not getting it.

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    1. Data! Data! Data! Kapler’s incongruity in his decision making, though supposedly based on data, leaves anyone paying attention scratching their heads. He’s contradicted himself countless times this season by senseless lineups and ingame moves and double switches.

      Klentak sat on his hands with regard to addressing the starting rotation back in the off season and through the trade deadline, with only 2 #5’s in Smyly and Vargas to show for his “looking under every stone” efforts. He should be arrested for essentially squandering the money he spent on bats by gross negligence of the mound. Nobody is perfect, but how does a GM utterly ignore one fifth of his roster from November through July and keep his job?

      MacPhail? Wake him up and let him know the season ends on Sunday.

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  163. Wow! Read Matt Breen’s tweet on Bryce Harper’s quote when asked about the speculation surrounding Gabe Kapler’s future. He was very diplomatic but didn’t offer an ounce of real support for Kapler. A non-answer that spoke volumes if you ask me. If anyone can post it here, please do…

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    1. These players do not support him, Bryce’s comments make that obvious. Watch what he says and then go watch what the Sixers players say when Brett Brown’s future was in question. These players know the game and can see from a mile away that Gabe is flat out awful at his job.

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  164. Harper’s post game interview on Gabe’s future..it is with Middleton and the others above him.
    Diplomatically correct.

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  165. This team has no fire, among things that are missing. Harper is the only one who plays with that burning desire to win and he’s actually very quiet, not a loud outspoken leader. This club has no verbal leader. Hoskins is quiet also and can’t talk much after this awful 2nd half anyway. In those instances, you need a manager that brings some fire as a leader. Kapler is anything but that. That is not Madden either. Girardi would seem to be a great fit. We’ll see.

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      1. LOL when I saw that quote I thought of this skit from SNL. How great would it be if Barry Gibb interviewed Kapler

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    2. Loud or not, they need someone the players respect and want to play for. He must keep them accountable and know how to motivate them, meaning you really can’t treat them all the same. As for the media and fans, nobody wants to be told it’s raining when you’re peeing on their shoes. Be boring if you want, but be straightforward without all the sterile jargon which everyone knows means nothing anyway.

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    3. This team needs guys who can hit with RISP and pitchers who can get opposing hitters out, much more than it needs a manager that “brings fire as a leader”. I’m not a Kepler apologist (I’m more or less neutral on him), and some of his decisions are questionable, but these posts blaming Kepler for the Phillies’ performance this season are kind of absurd. The Phillies’ biggest issues in 2019 were:

      – The starting pitching did not live up to expectations, particularly Pivetta (Exhibit A), Velasquez (Exhibit B), followed by Eflin and Arietta. You can probably blame the front office for over-estimating the quality of that rotation, but not the manager.

      – Al the injuries to the bullpen. Can’t really blame anyone for that mess.

      – The overall lack of clutch hitting with RISP. That’s almost entirely on the players. Maybe the hitting approach or hitting coach to a minor extent. But can’t place much blame on the front office or manager for that.

      Maybe some folks don’t like Kepler’s approach, but I don’t buy that the players weren’t trying their best. They just didn’t get it done on a consistent basis.

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  166. As much as I’ve bashed Kapler, I certainly think it unfair should he suffer the brunt of the blame alone. Klentak left him high and dry, although I agree with Romus that Gabe had much more input on the roster construction than we might assume – evidenced by the mere presence of Sean Rodriguez, let alone all the playing time he unjustifiably got. And shamelessly too, just to accommodate him in reaching his 10 years of major league service time, along with the 250K he gets annually beginning at age 62. Gabe had his favorites as well as his Nicky Dubs and Mikey Franco’s.

    But who hired Kapler? One way or another, Klentak won’t, nor should he, be allowed to hire the next manager. That’s if he’s even kept on by Middleton.

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  167. I don’t think we are going to spend our way out of this one Gents. I have my pop corn ready. You’ve heard me say before I am a baseball fan first a Phillies fan second so I will enjoy the drama of the playoffs and be able to enjoy the greatness of the players who will play in the post season.

    I’ll ponder how the Rays can win 94+ games in the NL East; The Twins 97+ and the A’s 94+

    How the Astros are likely to lose their season MVP Springer, an Ace in Cole and replace them with Tucker, Whitley and a couple extra draft picks. How we’ll spend some money and lose some picks…

    And probably hum a few bars of “Days go by” by the Talking Heads

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    1. It is amazing how the As, Twins and Rays all have done so well…with limited payrolls.
      —My hope…just one big FA pitcher signing….Cole preferably.
      —The Bohm/Howard surge for May/June, and further maturation of Haseley
      —Kapler biting the bullet and just culling the roster for another pitcher, and plenty of pipeline promise.

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  168. DMAR, I don’t think it’s only about spending $ on additional players, which we need to do. Having the capital that we do, enables us to eat the MacPhail and Klentak extensions. We can bring in a real Hitting Coach and help Kingery and Hoskins reach their potential, which I think is high. Yes, we have to spend on a TOR and BP help, but I don’t go after Rendon, I let Bohm develop into our future 3B, and let Miller play some 3B until Bohm is ready. I trade Cesar because he is not worth the $ he will get, and there is $40 Million coming off in wasted BP $. Then Arrieta next year. So, we won’t be the highest payroll team by any means, but can still improve dramatically.

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  169. I don’t know if anyone saw the recent documentary on tv about the workers at Amazon being frustrated by the company’s automation and monitoring of their work output. I forget what show/channel it was on, but was about a few months ago. I can’t help but think about some of the similarities between what they are doing vs what is going on with baseball and the data revolution.

    Baseball players I think used to spend their days working out together in the gym, taking BP, throwing bullpens, shagging BP, sitting around the locker room playing cards, drinking beer if we’re talking about the ’93 Phillies, and watching film to prepare for games. It was a pretty laid back and fun lifestyle I think for most. At Amazon, and most other production/warehouse facilities, people come/came to work and did their job. Part of that job was developing and enjoying social relationships with co workers. I’m sure it was always hard work, but could be rewarding for many reasons depending on the individual – sense of accomplishment, purpose, enjoying the people you work with, providing financially for family, etc. Maybe not as fun as being a ball player, but good paying, honest work that makes a lot of people happy.

    The documentary talked about how now EVERYTHING regarding these employees output is being measured and managed. They have requirements to deliver a certain output each day and they have to answer questions if they don’t make those numbers. Robots are participating in many of the tasks that humans used to perform which is taking away some of the social elements of the job, as well as causing concern for their jobs in the future. While I think everyone agrees what Amazon is doing is the right thing to do for business and is the future of the workplace, it doesn’t take away the fact that it’s not an easy or desirable situation for the employees.

    I think there are a lot of parallels with baseball and things like Driveline. Do the analytics and tools that teams are now using help? Absolutely. Is it the wave of the future? Absolutely. Will teams that use those tools be more successful than teams that don’t? Absolutely, generally speaking. But I have to think about the comments from the workers at Amazon feeling like their jobs are going away, feeling less enjoyment, feeling more pressure, having less fun, etc. They are not working in an environment anymore that brings them as much joy as in the past. For baseball, I think the key is how do you make this fun for the players the way it was before. I don’t think teams want players to feel like they are coming into a 9 to 5 job. The Athletic’s story on the Cubs pitching lab talked about a culture that the players seemed to really enjoy working with some of the lab techs and one another to bounce ideas around and try new things. Maybe the Phillies are doing all those things, but we just haven’t heard about them.

    I don’t mean for this rant to be negative to the Phillies because none of us really know what’s going on behind the scenes. So this is more of a comment in general about being a baseball player and how do you get players to buy into a very new way of doing things, a way that might take some of the fun out of the game and make it feel more like a job. I think teams should really focus on the culture and the environment associated around using data and labs and other tools to raise the acceptance rate of players truly buying in. I suspect many of the Phillies problems lie in that area as opposed to not having smart people or good data.

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  170. Gabe is the worst. He hasn’t used Robertson, Arano, Morgan, SerAnthony, Hunter or Neshek for months. What is he waiting for?

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    1. Thank you, Otero. You have succinctly (using just 21 words) capsulized the entire Gabe Kapler situation.

      While we’re at it, we can also blame Gabe for:

      * Not enough Dollar Dog Nights at CBP
      * Team is only using those awesome powder blue uniforms on Thursday afternoons
      * Arquimedes Gamboa’s .574 OPS
      * rocco’s penchant for posting under multiple names
      * And this woman’s unfortunate gaffe on live TV

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUtHP4HM6aU

      .

      If anyone believes Joe Maddon, Joe Girardi, Charlie Manuel, Earl Weaver, Walter Alston, or Connie Mack could have taken this team to the playoffs, you are just not being realistic.

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      1. Hilarious, Hinkie.

        Gabe (and every head coach or manager, really) has the misfortune of having a job where the immediate results are there for everyone to scrutinize daily, if not hourly. GM’s aren’t cursed with daily judgements. Klentak is in my opinion way more to blame than Kapler. I just talk (and complain) more about Gabe because of my reactionary impulses, be they accurate or not.

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      2. Everyone loves to blame the injuries and what not for the team’s failure, but it could have been a lot worse. What would this team have done if JTR had torn his ACL rather than losing Robertson for the year? What if rather than Dominguez missing time, Bryce would have missed 2-3 months? What if rather than Arietta needing surgery, it was Aaron Nola?

        If you would have asked people on Opening Day, who are the 5 guys this team can’t afford to lose, I think most would have said Nola, Realmuto, Harper, Hoskins, and Segura. And guess what, for the most part all 5 of them played all year without significant IL time.

        So what happens next year if we lose one of those 5 for a month or three, does that mean next year we shouldn’t make the playoffs either? Just because our manager and coaching staff can’t help one AAAA type player or pitcher step up and contribute? Because the Dodgers and Astros and Yankees have all of them?

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        1. For me, the fact that the Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers were able to win through injuries while the Phillies failed is more of an indictment on Matt Klentak. The Phillies farm system is withering on the vine under his watch. He also sat on his hands when other GM’s were acquiring helpful bullpen arms at the deadline.

          I’m not saying Gabe is untouchable, I’m just saying it would be a total injustice for Gabe Kapler to be used as the scapegoat for the Phillies 2019 mediocre season.
          The fish rots from the head down. (I mentioned this before, but here it goes again …) After firing RAJ in 2015, one of the people Andy MacPhail interviewed was Chaim Bloom. MacPhail passed on Bloom in favor of the guy who had worked under him before. MacPhail was comfortable with Matt Klentak because he knew they were simpatico/thought alike.
          After Klentak fired Pete Mackanin in 2017, he interviewed mostly candidates with little to no MLB managerial experience. Klentak wanted a malleable team leader. He wanted a guy who would comply with the GM’s wishes (hiring assistant coaches, suggesting lineups, implementing strategies). As a matter of fact, Klentak nearly hired Jorge Velandia right out of his own front office. In the end, Klentak picked Gabe Kapler, and gave him just a three year deal. Kapler has since been a good soldier. He has never complained publicly about the group of (mostly) rag tag pitchers he has had to work with.
          Getting rid of Gabe Kapler is like putting lipstick on a pig. It would be a cosmetic move. The problem starts with Andy MacPhail, and runs through Matt Klentak before spilling over onto Gabe Kapler.
          If John Middleton really wants to do the right thing, he should force MacPhail out. He should then do what MacPhail didn’t do four years ago … hire Chaim Bloom (as President of Baseball Operations). Let Bloom then deal with Klentak and Kapler.

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          1. Hinkie, I don’t think anyone disputes what you say and even suggest. I think you take issue with the collective attack on Kapler’s merit as a MLB manager, which on this site gets more “air time” than Klentak’s as a GM. I see Klentak and Kapler as extensions of each another. What they possess in the analytical department is unfortunately offset with a serious lack of intangible and visceral aspects of leadership, along with an aptitude for talent evaluation and/or development.

            Let’s bring in Bloom and see what happens. Middleton is likely conducting lengthy staff meetings as we speak before making his final call, if he hasn’t already. The problem to me is systemic, and the tone that’s been set by MacPhail isn’t working. Everyone from him down is subject for removal, including Kapler who again is organically tied to his bosses.

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          2. 100% agree Hinkie. If Phil’s signed Corbin and Keuchel they are in the playoffs and everyone is calling this a successful season. They bet big on 3 unproven young pitchers with no backup plan. All three failed and that was the end of the season.

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            1. This is probably true, but the bigger problem is that once they knew the 3 unproven guys were struggling they still didn’t sign Keuchel. It made no sense – it was just a short-sighted cheap-ass stand pat.

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            2. When we realized that all three young SPs weren’t going to work, then Jake went down. So now you have 4 SPs to replace. Keuchel wouldn’t have been the difference alone. I think they made the call to punt on this season and keep powder dry for next year.

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          3. Hinkie, I agree. I don’t think Kapler should be fired because they missed the playoffs, I think he should be fired regardless of the results because he is an awful manager. The lack of performance from the 3 pitchers that v1 references I believe falls both on poor judgement by the FO and a failure of the manager and his staff to develop at least one of them. My feelings about Kapler do not in anyway exonerate the others. I think they all are less than what we need to make this organization successful.

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          1. Naw. He had five-man rotations in the days when pitchers were real men and went every fourth day. Casey was a pioneer in leading us down the road to snowflake players.

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  171. And look at the DBacks. They did the opposite of us. Traded their best player, Paul Goldschmidt. Lost Pollack, and a SP as good as Corbin, in FA, getting nothing in return. Trade their best SP, Greinke, at the deadline. And, they are better than we are. I want Middleton to be as angry as I am. I have been a fan for a very long time. 3 quotes from Management/FO types that insulted me as a fan. One was Bill Giles’ “we are a small market team.” Then Lee Thomas when the teams stunk and the Vet was empty, and he said “the fans should be happy to come out and watch some baseball.” And, I think the worst one was this year’s MacPhail’s words just completely disregarding the need to win. I won’t repeat his stupid comment. We have done that enough. Dumping Kranitz for wonderboy, the analytics guru, disregarding Pitching, the whole approach to hitting, a complete disconnect from the fan base, these all come from the Front Office on down. Way above Kapler is where this fish started to stink. And, the injury narrative is not going to fly.

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  172. Aside from Robertson, how good of a bullpen would that be right now, really? Thirty-somethings who’ve been breaking and future hopefuls like Seranthony and Morgan still trying to find consistency. Yeah, they’re better than the AAAA arms present, but how much?

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  173. I feel like I am reading a novel, with some of these post. so long. simple they all should go, why cause they failed, did nothing to try to change anything,

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  174. For the eighth consecutive season, I cannot wait to be out of my baseball misery. I can’t watch this mediocre collection of talent any longer. I’ll probably and grudgingly renew my partial season plan again (they sucked for so long that my seats are now really good – a partial plan but only 5 rows from the field), but, to quote the Queen, this is not a year on which I shall look back on with undiluted pleasure – to put it mildly.

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  176. what is there about kapler that i find most annoying? is it the tone deaf moves, is it the lack of accountability, is it the laid back leadership style? no, what really gets me is the moonbean, drivel, happy talk after every gut wrenching loss.

    i don t think firing him will make a huge difference in the results we get from this collection of chronically come up small players but at least after the game is over, i won t have to listen to all the hot air he effortlessly pumps out. mcfail warned him about that at the end of last season but apparently it s part of his dna and he can t control it.

    middleton has to realize that retaining kapler will be very unpopular with the fan base and will have a negative impact on ticket sales. it s a simple business decision regardless of the baseball aspect.

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    1. jimhg….bingo.
      Middleton knows the fan base and is not blind to their desires…after all he has been one now for 60 plus years.
      Oddly, the Mets managerial situation is somewhat similar to the Phillies.
      And to one extent, both fan bases may want to move on to another accountable leader in the dug-out.

      Like

  177. Imo, harpers contract gives him a unique position in the clubhouse, especially near the beginning half. I’ve mentioned this before and I’m bringing it up again, because it seems to be the case, imho. Harper is very close to a player/coach. I’m sure teammates turn to Harper if they disagree with Kapler and his staff. You don’t have that on every team. Trout is likely the same. You can’t sign deals of 13 years and not have power in the Lockerbie, if Harper want to undermine the manager or wants him gone …. the manager is as good as gone. If Kapler survives, you know Harper likes him, if not, it is basically a foot in the grave

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    1. Tac3…i think you are correct…if Harper insists he stays, he stays.
      But he will not insist IMO.
      Harper said, if and when they ask his input, he will give it to them.
      However, the four previous managers he has played under in the last 8 years….he probably liked them all and Rizzo still said adios to three of them….Davey Johnson, Matt Williams, and Dusty Baker.

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      1. Bryce might like Gabe very much….on a personal level. But he has eyes and ears like anyone else close enough to the situation to see and feel whether the clubhouse is actually buying into what Kapler is selling. Is he a good tactician? How well does he communicate beyond the positive warm fuzzies? Harper has to consider, he’s here for 12 more years. No manager will likely outlast him, and since he’s in his prime years now, how much longer does he want to wait for “the next guy” who may not be the neophyte that Kapler is?

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        1. Harper will easily out last the next manager, And whoever takes the job on, has to know that, or they are just brain dead. They better be on the same wavelength or it’s not going to end pretty.

          I believe this is another reason Middleton preferred Harper over Machado, he knows his franchise is in good hands. He is basically a FO employee, reports what is and isn’t working. For instance… you weren’t selling Bryce Harper on the bull that was bringing a curveball machine to batting practice for the guys who are struggling.

          I’d imagine Harper has some say in the roster configuration, not final say, but his choice gets a strong cobsideration. Lets see how this offseason goes, and we can further define his FO pull. I’m leaning towards a full backing of pursing Cole by Harper, who will be heavily involved in the recruiting process, opposite side this time

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  178. Remember all of those hot takes about how JP Crawford was breaking out and Klentak messed up by trading him….nope. JP still can’t hit.

    2018: .214/.319/.393/.712
    2019: .236/.323/.387/.709

    If he was here, fans would be screaming for an upgrade.

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    1. In the time I’ve been commenting on Phuture Phillies, JP has to be one of the biggest disappointments, along with Dom Brown, Cody Asche and Andrew Knapp (I always thought he’d emerge into an offensive force but couldn’t catch – now he’s good defensively and a terrible hitter with a great swing).

      Like

      1. I thought that he was going to be great until he hit AAA…then I really started to worry.

        As I have said before, I view minor league stats as weeder out. Good MILB stats do not mean that you will be a good MLB player. But it is rare to find a player who struggled in the minors and dominated in the pros.

        Like

    1. Maybe the FIP stat is completely meaningless? Same guys, with a better offense and defense, but they slip to 14th? Really lower since they all basically got demoted.

      The offseason will be tricky. Bold moves are out there, but they would be unpopular, does the FO have the “baseballs” to make such moves? & the trust of ownership to plug the trigger?

      Cole is almost a no brained. The years and salary will be too much but that’s the price to pay to a legit shot at a title. Unfortunately there is only one G. Cole available. The bidding will be insane, and I don’t think the FA market will play out like last years snail race.

      My entire forecast for 2020 is dependent on signing Cole, if he goes elsewhere , the 2020 campaign will be to close to a repeat of 2019 with slightly better outcome, still no WC, let alone catching the Braves/Nats/Mets. Cole/Nola/Howard/Arretta/Efflin change my mind, with a bullpen that’s not so chronically injured, and neris isn’t the closer

      Like

      1. Tac3:
        On the FIP aspect for the three amigos…..think of all the HRs they gave up..near the top of the NL in HRs allowed for any three starting pitchers..theirs was 1.8 per 9 IP….near the top allowed…matt Boyd @1.9 and Mike Leake at 1.87 were only higher.
        Then there are the walks to throw in there, (3.2 per 9 ranking them around 50 or so for all starters) and less strikeouts
        Eflin himself decided to go to pitching-to-contact vs the Ks….and Pivetta fizzled after 13 starts. In aggregate their SO/9 for the three was 8 (357 IP…335 Ks)…not bad, not exceptional.
        The reason their FIP rose significantly vs last year.

        You are correct….for me also…Cole or bust.

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  181. With all due respect to Hinkie and the other pro-Kapler people – and again I’ve said this adnauseum – the whole debate isn’t an either/or issue. Blaming Kapler or blaming MacKlentak isn’t mutually exclusive. I don’t see how you fire the top 2 front office executives and keep Gabe. The whole brand needs to be wiped clean. Middleton needs to quickly introduce new blood with fresh analytics acumen to the existing core of talent and adding horses to the pitching staff. There is an urgency here. He can’t do it piece meal. Or at least let’s hope he doesn’t.

    Like

    2. 8mark…….do you really think he will turn around anf let go MacPhail and Klentak, five months after giving them an extension?
      I would not.
      This time next year under similar circumstances, and lets hope it does not come to that, then I would.
      Gabe goes and maybe the pitching coach
      Thomson and Dusty may stay.

      Like

      1. Romus, in all honesty….no.

        BUT if there’s an owner in this city whose reputed to have brass balls, it’s Johnny Cigars. We can’t know how many people he’s spoken to outside the organization, but if he’s sought input from good stock throughout MLB, my hope is that at the very least he’s laying down the law within the Phillies executive suites. How much shaking up goes on remains to be seen, but I’m positive he can’t keep things anything close to what they’ve been.

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        1. ….but Romus, I will add the weight of the Ken Rosenthal piece from 2 weeks ago, which cast shadows on how safe upper management actually is at this point. Have things improved since then?

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      2. “maybe the pitching coach” ???
        Romus … The Phillies will have an Uber loaded with Chris Young’s belongings waiting for him outside CBP Sunday afternoon. Under no circumstance is he back in 2020. The team needs a guy with a history of developing young arms to come in here and offer VV, Pivetta, and Eflin a last chance. Not saying these guys should be counted on to fill out next season’s rotation. Just saying they should be given the opportunity to compete in spring training under the tutelage of someone like Dave Righetti, John Farrell, Ray Searage, or Kyle Snyder.

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        1. Agree Hinkie…..a more experienced pitching for the development of the yuonger arms is critical….and Spencer Howard is the next to come on board sometime next year and his development has to be of major concern.

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          1. So, if I remember correctly the Phillies didn’t hire Chris Young based on hearsay. After hiring him away from Houston he was the assistant pitching coach for two seasons, wasn’t he,, before being promoted to pitching coach? They saw him working on a day in day out basis right next to Kranitz, who as I recall was himself a bit of a novice as a pitching coach…. Obviously with the possible exceptions of Irvin and Suarez, perhaps Eflin, there haven’t been a lot of positive pitching developments. But what do you think the organization saw that made them make the change?

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            1. Quite frankly not sure what their parameters were in determining that CY was to be kept on board and valued, and letting Rick Krantz walk into the open market.
              Perhaps Kapler has an affinity with youth and newer innovative ideas, who knows what he actual reason was…..the story line CY was being recruited by other orgs and the Phillies did not want to see him go.

              BTW…Rick Kranitz was not a novice….maybe i the earl 80s…but .Kranitz served as a player-coach with a Cubs minor league team in 1984 and also in 1985, though he pitched a total of three innings in those seasons since he was still playing, he did serve as their as a minor league pitching coach,…his start
              And from then on was the minor league pitching coordinator and an assistant coach for the Cubs organization through 2001
              So then he moved on to other teams as pitching oriented aspects of coaching….so he has 30 plus years under his belt.

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          2. Regarding these pitching and hitting “gurus” of today, the problem I see is that certain popular philosophies beget trends, which means more teams begin to apply them until everybody is doing the same thing (i.e. pitch hard and up in the zone), the strategic advantage is nullified….then the counterpart adjusts to it until it’s no longer as effective, and then another new flavor comes along with his new philosophy….and so on until we eventually come full circle. The game of baseball is becoming like a dog chasing its own tail. Every generation wants to reinvent the game because they’ve got to be smarter than the one before them.

            Arms or bats, how about just coaching to the strengths of the kid instead of stuffing him into your approach as if what he’s done to get where he’s at isn’t enough. I may be oversimplifying it but not by much. But the game of baseball has morphed into an ongoing pseudo science project with no regard for its original beautiful design.

            [Sermon over]

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            2. Listening to Al Leiter last night he pointed out a few things. record HR’s and record K’s

              Pitchers being told to pitch at the top of the zone and many of them aren’t comfortable or even capable of doing so with confidence. His hope that it stops being a mandate and merely a suggestion.

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        2. Hinkie – I am all in with Searage as I think he is the best pitching coach in the game – but I will admit, Archer is the one pitcher he hasn’t been able to rebuild. My take is that he is a Pittsburgh institution and if there is a major shakeup— only then would they consent to see him leave. He has completely changed many pitching careers.

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    3. Your right he can’t dawdle if he is so inclined or the good ones will getaway to other clubs with the same predicament!

      Like

  182. JTR is getting the meniscus in his right knee cleaned out on Friday. No long term concerns according to reports.

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    1. i had my Meniscus done in march, still killing me. and its the same doctor I bet, my doctor is phillies doctor. Hope he does better,

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  184. Dan … you made it on the broadcast again. This time we got to actually see your face (rockin’ that beard). TMac called you by your first name.
    BTW … you appeared at the beginning of the 4th inning. And right after your appearance, the Phillies scored their first run (Harper double followed by Hoskins RBI single).

    Like

    1. Thanks for the info. Yeah, I had to bring a special (smaller) sign to the Nats game because my regular one is too big for their rules. So I couldn’t hide behind it as effectively. And the beard is a result of not shaving the entire trip. I’m actually excited to go back to my usual short beard/stubble appearance.

      Wonder if anyone will say anything to me in person at the Phils game on Sunday.

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  185. While the local beat reporters focus on whether the Phillies can finish with a winning record in 2019, what’s much more troubling is the fact that they will finish buried in 4th place in the NL east, due primarily to the fact that their starting pitching is no better than 4th in the division. Maybe last. With all the money Klentak has had at his disposal, how is that?

    An “objectively excellent” off season? Na. Don’t think so.

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  187. Watching the Brew Crew clinch last night I couldn’t help but think of a couple things. I wanted us to go out and get Jordan Lyles instead the Brewers got him and all he did was go 7-1 with a 2.35 ERA.

    Watching Keston Hiura (1 pick after Haseley) put up a 940 OPS stung a little bit. Only 4 players from that 2017 top 10 have made an MLB appearance. Brendan McKay the 2 way player, Kyle Wright, Haseley and Hiura.

    I did manage to pick up 4 really good seats for Saturday in section 125. If any of y’all are going to be there I’d really love to have a beer with you/commiserate some.

    Like

    1. DMAR….yes remember you mentioning that Lyles would be a good addition.
      And the Pirates would not have wanted much since Lyles at the time of the trade was having a below-average season…but then again with a poor club.

      Unfortunately some of the best local GMs are not employees of the Phillies.

      Like

      1. Lyles is a FA and will not come with any QO compensation so we can still get him. Smyly looks like he is worth taking a chance on for some back end rotation depth.

        I love George Springer I’d offer him 8/$160-$180. Love Rendon offer him 10-$260

        JT to the Yankees for Devi Garcia and either Breaux or Canaan Smith.

        Hoskins and Cutch to the Giants for Posey and Jandel Gustave saves the giants $7 million clears a spot for Bohm and gets us a nice BP piece.

        Springer
        Haseley
        Rendon
        Harper
        Bohm
        Posey-of course I’ll pair him with Grullon or some other
        Kingery
        SS-would love to trade Segura and get a Galvis or Didi as a stop gap for Stott

        Nola
        Lyles
        Howard
        Garcia
        Smyly/Arrieta

        Howard and Garcia won’t start the season in the rotation but they will be up in 2020. Move VV to the BP and move Pivetta for a change of scenery move once the baby aces are called up.

        I like to think we may get a CB pick for Herrera. Keep Miller around for utility. I prefer Lomo over Bruce as he can spell Bohm at 1B or play some left. Round out the roster as needed.

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        1. Lost me at JT to the Yankees, DMAR. Otherwise a compelling post. I doubt NYY would deal for one year of Realmuto and give up THAT much without a LTC in place. Don’t see that scenario playing out. I’m all for trading Hoskins if he nets us a TOR, preferably a controllable one.

          At the end of the day, however – I can’t envision Klentak with nearly as much creativity as you. Good, provocative ideas, though.

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  189. I can only imagine the nonsense that Mac/Klentak are feeding Middleton as they watch the team they put together get beat 4 in a row to the Nats. They are all there watching this drekk. I cannot imagine he is not less than pleased. At some point he has to speak. His first words should be “I apologize to the fans.”

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  190. The Red Sox fired their GM a year after winning a WS let that sink in Mr. Middleton.

    The D-Backs hired Larussa and Dave Stewart in 2014 realized “hey I think we made a mistake” and before they could do anymore damage replaced them with Mike Hazen in 2016.

    You don’t get points for being patient with incompetence!

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    1. I think Mr. Middleton is a good man and I think, to a point, he is a patient man. But I also think he’s a hy competitive man and a demanding person and I think he’s a guy you really don’t want to piss off and when he gets mad – watch out. That said, it is possible this group in the FO gets another year, but maybe not and wherever things stand now, I have no doubt that John Middleton is fuming and wants change . . . like yesterday.

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      1. Here’s the sticking point….Klentak fully endorsed Kapler publicly, less than 2 weeks ago, and so if Middleton now decides that Gabe isn’t returning, how does that reflect on Klentak? Makes him look rather impotent in his post as GM, no? I’m concerned that Middleton will be smooth talked into keeping them all. The X-factor may be MacPhail. If the owner trusts him, what’s his take on Kapler? It’s a messy situation. Let’s hope it isn’t a sort of compromise and half-measured decision from Middleton. Stay tuned….

        Like

        1. 8mark..’smooth talked into keeping them all’….not so sure about that.
          The way I see it…Gabe will be told on Sunday an hour or so before the 3PM start time…so he can say his goodbyes to the players, and then probably given the option to either head out, and let Thomson run the last game…. or manage his last game.
          Then Chris Young gets the word after the game or on Monday.

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  191. We talk about Middleton as if he were some unsophisticated rube. He’s not. He ran and sold a multi-billion dollar company. He’s very smart and very sophisticated and he’s been around baseball management long enough that you can’t easily bamboozle him. He may not act as quickly as some around here would prefer, but he won’t wait around forever and when and if he acts, it will be well thought-out and decisive.

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    1. Middleton praised Klentak around the Harper signing as one of the best GMs in MLB. It would be quite awkward for him to fire him relatively soon after that and the reported extension. As it’s been talked about that hiring, for example, Bloom to be the VP of baseball operations, Middleton could ultimately leave the fate of both Klentak and Kapler in his hands. MacPhail could remain as president but without immediate rule of this matter.

      Like

  192. no question catch, that is exactly what I base my hopes on, Middleton. I think he gives the Mac/Klentak duo another year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kapler back. But, he gets a new PC and HC, and makes it clear that the approach to acquiring a TOR has changed, and they will go as deep into a contract as necessary. I just don’t have much faith in the FO duo, just guessing what I think Middleton does. I really believe a an effective Hitting Coach helps Hoskins and Kingery. Both young and both still have high ceilings. Harper is young in RF, Haseley in CF, and Bohm and Howard during the season and that is a very nice nucleus. Of course, Nola is young. No reason that we can’t pay whatever it takes for Cole, and to add to the BP.

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    1. matt13……you really think Middleton will let Kapler return for lame duck in 2020?
      He must surly know how the fan base will react with Kapler coming back after two consecutive Sept disasters.
      Responsibility and accountability….Kapler is not totally responsible for the failures….but he is 100% accountable as the manager…comes with the territory.
      Plus he is not universally liked, as was Mack.

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      1. Two weeks ago, I still see that the trio of McKlentakOhMyKapler will come back next year — which is opposite of what I want to see.

        The lackluster performance to end the season might be a blessing not only it gives the Phillies a better position in the Rule 4 draft, but it will force Middleton to do some intervention and fire any if not all of McKlentakOhMyKapler.

        I cannot see how anybody can defend Kapler from a back to back late season collapse. The team never rises to the challenge under Kapler. And having a choke artist in Neris as the team’s closer is probably the epitome of a team with talent but lack heart.

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        1. Yes….a lack of heart, accountability, discipline, and any evidence of the ability to coach and develop talent, and at best a questionable track record of ingame decision making and lineup construction. Other than that, he’s fine.

          (Insert requisite qualifying statement here)…nobody is perfect.

          And what’s worse, Kapler is least of their issues. Middleton alone has to navigate these waters, perhaps with some input from outside the organization because at this point, who from inside can you trust?

          Like

  193. Just realized..this thread has 700 posts…..must be a record for an Open Discussion thread.
    I do not recall one with this many….maybe some of the June draft threads from the past

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  194. Romus, I don’t really think that happens. I just wouldn’t be shocked. I do believe that Middleton struggles with laying the blame solely on Kapler. He also knows the fan base is pretty astute and won’t buy that Kapler is solely to blame for the season’;s failure. The Injuries excuse won’t fly either. The Yankees make that argument pretty hollow. He is going to have to express clearly that winning next year is the mandate. Again, just guessing. My opinion is all 3 should go, bring in Chaim Bloom and let him do the rest.

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  195. Hello all! It’s been a while….it took me some time to catch up but none is sadder that ole’ friend Wawa Mike (RIP)…

    And also, i pray for everybody’s health and wellness especially Jim’s wife….

    Sorry if I will echo some of the comments that were already posted, discussed and debated but here’s my thought on unexpected fate of the 2019 Phillies….

    Rotation – giant hole size weakness that was ignored. If Middleton is willing to go past the luxury tax threshold – Gerritt Cole should be the target. You don’t need advance stats to know how good Gerritt Cole is. Signing Gerritt Cole means that Franco and Cesar will be non-tender candidates – and so what.

    Kapler – I’m neutral with Kapler. But after 2 seasons, Kapler did not show me anything. Kapler is not bad but he’s not that good either. Kapler is as vanilla as Klentak and McPhail. Positivity is the only plus skill that I from Kapler but his positivity doesn’t help the team win games!

    Klentak – my main concern with Klentak is not being risk averse, but Klentak doesn’t show me ability to evaluate good talent. JTR is a known commodity and Klentak used the Phillies war chest not his “eye” to acquire JTR.

    Coaches and Player development – the farm and young players have negative net development. NickDubs, Pivetta, DLS, etc, etc, suddenly bombed out this year. Kingery is probably the only player that improved from last year — and Kingery’s last year is awful bad so there’s no way for him but to get better.

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  196. Vinny and Pivetta should be pitching from the pen starting ST. I still like the Phillies to prioritize the $$ to sign Gerrit Cole. Jake the Cake, Damon Jones, Dohy, Singer, Hennigan should be pitching in the ST to try out as a LH hand from the pen.

    JTR should be locked up too and don’t let the underwhelming season factor in his decision to join a team in a better position to win the WS.

    Bohm and Howard can start with the 2020 Phillies if they show in ST that they’re ready.

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    1. Agree on Bohm and Howard. If they play well in spring training, they go north with the big club, service time implications be damned. The next CBA will likely make it all moot anyway.

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      1. I highly doubt either player, neither of which has ever played at AAA, starts 2020 with the big club. Promotions could come as early as May, but I doubt it would be much before that and just as likely after that.

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  197. I also agree with the suggestion to transition McPhail and Klentak out of their current position to a ‘consultant” position and hire a more capable FO (from LAD, HOU, TB org) to decide on Kapler and the coaches. I haven’t gone thru the available names yet so I have no idea who I want. As long as it is not Andy McPhail and/or Matt Klentak — it is a good start.

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    1. Welcome back KuKo…I hate the idea that you have to be nice and keep guys around as consultants. That was Montgomery’s problem too many cooks in the kitchen.

      Let them go and move them out. they will be fine trust me!

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      1. I only said that since Middleton is a businessman. He hates burning his $ for nothing. Since he will be on the hook when he handed out the extension, he’ll make use of McPhail and Klentak for some non-important tasks that he can delegate.

        Unlike Andy Reid, I don’t think McPhail and Klentak will be in some other teams radar to hire.

        But I also prefer to cut ties with those two. I never liked them since the beginning.

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  198. Welcome back, KuKo!

    I’m hoping that Tampa doesn’t go deep into October, say lose the WC game, so Bloom would be free to entertain an offer from Middleton, who would do well IMO to restructure the Phillies front office. Hire/assign the team president (don’t really care if it’s MacPhail or not), then hire a VP of baseball operations who would then hire both the GM and the manager. They would report directly to him while working in collaboration with each other. Bloom over Klentak (or whomever) and Kapler (or whomever) would present better checks and balances of power within the organization.

    This whole pecking order of owner-president-GM-manager doesn’t work for me. What if the owner likes the GM, who also likes the manager he hired, who isn’t particularly liked by the president? Seems kind of disjointed to me.

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    1. I’ve been out of the country for an international assignment. There’s internet but we’re in the field most of the time.

      The trio of McKlentakOhMyKapler must go, not because I don’t like them but here’s why:

      McPhail – no sense of urgency.

      Klentak – lack of eye for good talent especially the “buy low” recycle bin players. Good GMs find talent from small trades and low $$ FA signing.

      Kapler – strategically and tactically deficient. A decent skipper is good with one or the other. Kapler’s tactical ability is similar to a soft tosser — which means small margin for error!

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        2. yeah, i need to cut down on my eating habits and stay active so no “shinigami” is knocking in my door.

          but i’m glad to be back in town. i miss CSN and those cable channels!

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  199. KuKo, welcome back! I think a tandem works like Theo and Jed Hoyer or Andrew Friedman/Josh Byrnes. I would wager that Chaim Bloom has a perfect candidate in mind. Giving credit to Hinkie, Bloom is the perfect choice. That is really what the team needs, not a placeholder Manager for a year so Klentak gets another shot. I don’t keep any of them as a consultant. They will be fine with the 2 years worth of salary Middleton has to eat. We hire a new Manager now, then Mac/Klentak have to go after next season, and then the new guy brings in his own Manager. A waste of time and effort. And, let’s face it, another season like this one and Mac/Klentak have no shot to stay.

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    1. Yes, should Middleton keep them, it’s like he’s punting 2020 away. His extension of Klentak was IMO especially short sighted since the GM has effectively allowed the farm to go from (arguably) top 5 to (most definitely) bottom 5. Some regression is understandable considering the Sanchez trade and graduation of certain prospects, but to now be behind the 8-ball, having lost draft picks via free agency without acquiring the same in smaller, savvy deals showed his own short sightedness.

      Who knows for sure what MacPhail sanctioned or didn’t. His general passivity can’t possibly be pleasing Middleton.

      As much as we debate Kapler, he’s really an afterthought in all this.

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    2. Hi Matt! I started to check the possible names being discussed here but I agree with Chain Bloom —- he is a master of “making more for less” — imagine what he can do if with Middleton’s deep pockets and some of the good young pieces.

      It should be higher than a GM role to really convince Bloom to jump ship. But he’s a good name to add in the FO.

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  200. I think the question that needs to be asked is anyone willing to sit through another year of this so called leadership? I for one am not. You had an epic collapse in 2018 and are on the verge of finishing this year under .500 despite the fact that you were picked in the beginning of the year to fight for the division! Sorry, but in baseball, you are not given a 3rd year after failing miserably for a year and a half straight. You have to clean house. No moving people into a consulting position(for what? To consult on what not to do?), no giving another year to see if they can right the ship(clearly they cannot). It’s over. Find better leadership, evaluators and coaches.

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    1. Can you imagine the spike downward for season ticket sales if Middleton essentially keeps the status quo. Announcing new pitching and hitting coaches won’t exactly boost the attendance in 2020.

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      1. Never been a fan of the trio — they are all average. Just enough to be good but never a contender.

        McPhail should be the 1st to go because he does nothing other than to add to the ticket costs because of his salary.

        Kapler is the least guilty but after 2 seasons, he has shown no ability of a WS winning skipper. The players like him because he’s nice but it appears that players don’t want to win for him.

        Klentak is the critical decision. He has don’t major damage but he missed a lot of opportunities.

        These trio are cut from the same cloth – all vanilla. The Phillies will be in the “purgatory” forever under this FO. So this should be enough of a reason to make a change!

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  201. Of course it’s likely nothing if anything will be announced until after Sunday’s game but I would have to think that a decision from Middleton is already final. What remains to be determined between now and then?

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  202. My question guys, is what is the effect of just firing Kapler? I am taking it for granted that Young goes. Does the fan base accept that and buy more tickets? I don’t think so. Maybe after a Cole signing. My point is for Middleton to think anyone will be appeased by Kapler being fired and Klentak and MacPhail still here, he is kissing himself. That may, very well, be what happens. But, no one is running out to buy tickets regardless of who Klentak names as the new Manager.

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    1. Firing Kapler alone will only appease the Kapler-only haters. It wouldn’t address the deeper systemic problems at the root of which lies Matt Klentak. It’s not what Klentak has actually done that’s angered fans, it’s what he hasn’t done, regarding the starting rotation at the major league level, but of greater consequence – the talent pipeline. His and Kapler’s idea of seeking “value at the margins” is their interpretation of simply being cheap by looking for a little by giving up nothing. Hence the AAAA arms off the scrap heaps of other teams. Gabe Kapler calls Jared Hughes a “warrior”. The manager and the GM have both insulted the intelligence of true Phillies fans since joining forces two years ago. It’s time to stop it, Mr Middleton.

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    1. Romus, I was going to say, with only 22,000 in attendance on the day the Nats clinched a WC berth, there’s a good possibility that any fans present aren’t DC natives. That’s one joke of a fan base, another unworthy of an MLB franchise.

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        1. Romus, it’s a good thing Haseley made that great catch to rob the Nats of a 3-run homer. That’ll be 3 runs less we get beaten by…

          It’s all good so long as Middleton is still sitting and watching this from the visitor’s executive box in DC. If so, the man must have masochistic tendencies.

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          1. This is as low as I can remember in decades…..I am sure there were other times , but this is really disheartening.
            But they always say…it is the darkest before the dawn!

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            1. and the Phillies will need to sweep their nemesis the Marlins just to get over 50-50!

              I’m not anti-Kapler, but back-to-back season losing gas in the end is not a good sign of a WS contending skipper.

              If the Phillies decided to tank the last 2 weeks, might as well see Grullon, NickDubs, Haseley, etc got the most opportunities.

              Everything happens for a reason. Maybe a wake up call to Middleton that McPhail-Klentak-Kapler is not the answer to his WS quest.

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  206. KuKo, the problem is that they were not tanking. Kapler said as we entered September that his team of fighters and grinders would show what they are made of and he sure was right! only, not in the way he meant. 8mark is right. I don’t dislike Kapler, I don’t like being told guys are “warriors” and “grind every play” and how “proud” he is when they lose. I mentioned before that the perfect example was that SD game where Kirby Yates struck out the side in the 9th inning. A game when we were still in it. He talked about how proud he was, how many pitches they saw, what a great effort. Nonsense, we were never seeing Yates again this season, they all struck out, and we lost. Who wants to hear stuff like that when we lose?

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    1. Besides dishing out money on a starting pitchers in free agency, and also the JTR offering, I am wondering if this off-season would be the ideal time to offer Rhys a long term deal…..at a very reasonable team friendly rate……would also have to sell Boras, but Rhys’ 2019 metrics do not beg for top dollar.
      Somewhere in the neighborhood of Acuna’s with the Braves….8 yrs@$100M…but for Rhys entering in his age27 season thus buying out 4 arb years of control and two of his free agency years….so maybe 6 yrs @ $78M.

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        1. fair point on Boras.
          Troubling as it it currently appears…Hoskins is not elite with this years results going into his age27 season…..I could think Boras would be more determined to negotiate higher if Hoskins were a few years younger..
          The 82nd ranked 2019 player by fWAR would not appear to be an elite player.

          https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=21,d&page=3_30

          Nor even a more generous 63rd ranked according to his 2019 runs created ….wRC+.
          https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=17,d&page=3_30

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  207. What an embarrassment! When does it end? Knapp is history. Are we just waiting to see who gets pulled out from this train wreck?

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  208. Could they have given John Middleton a worse performance than getting swept 5 games against the Nats? Did it seem like we were ever really in any of the games? I don’t recall any of them felt like a “heartbreaking” loss. It felt like we were not talented enough to really compete with the Nats, and they are not even as good as the Braves. And, we are supposed to believe that a change in Manager will bridge the gap?Just terrible.

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  210. Happy 70th birthday to Michael Jack Schmidt. Man, the years are fleeting. Growing up in the ’70s, I would imitate his batting stance and the butt wiggle, remember? Too bad he’s not as good of an analyst in the booth, but you can’t have everything.

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  211. Getting swept by the nationals… was that a favor to the nats to boost their confidence for the playoffs? Unacceptable. Backs against the wall, fighting spirit my arse. Kapler and the FO are going to have a hard time explaining this one away. Those seats have to be on fire at this point, one loss to the marlins, I think ends the regime.

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    1. Gabe’s place in the regime’s hierarchy has probably come to its conclusion.
      It would not surprise me on Fan Appreciation Day…Sunday… he is not in the dug-out.

      Like

  212. Once we got eliminated, I’m all for tanking. Let’s get the highest draft pick possible. No way do I work on a contract with Rhys, let him go year to year then let him walk if he’s too expensive.

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    1. Agree. I want to see him rebound under a new and better staff, get away from the “I have to see more pitches than anyone else” approach. Maddening. Swing the bat, kid!…and go with the pitch while you’re at it.

      Like

      1. Yeah, I’m weary of watching the pitch down the middle, no swing. The foul ball, and then the flail at the pitch at the shoelaces for the K. The rest of the year start taking a hack at the 1st pitch and hit it where it’s at.

        Like

    2. The one aspect of a Hoskins LTC offering…..is with his personality and maturity, as to some players who may relax after getting a deal, may be the impetus to prove he is a better hitter and player than what 2019 showed.
      The other aspect….he may just turn it around without an offering in his first arb year…then Boras and him will not negotiate at all and hte Phillies probably watch him walk in his age31 season when he could be at his peak and prime..

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      1. I’m not inclined to worry about Hoskins, Romus. Ideally he’ll turn out okay, but his profile doesn’t scream “lock me up now!”, especially if he is an attractive centerpiece to a team with a TOR to offer in return.

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        1. regarding Hoskins and I love the young man the lessons of yore should prevail: Pujols, Cabrerra, Davis, Goldy, Howard and so on

          Unless you’re sure about a DH in the NL one should be very careful about how much money gets doled out to a player limited to 1B

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      2. I just don’t see the Phillies and Hoskins doing a contract now. I’m sure the Phillies would consider buying low on a LTC, but why would Hoskins negotiate this year from a position of weakness? To ask this question is to answer it – he wouldn’t.

        Also, people need to understand that even if he turns this around, which I believe he will, his market value is going to be limited at age 31 as a first baseman. That’s the one position they can always replace if Hoskins’ demands are unreasonable.

        Yep, the Rhys Hoskins LTC for this year is very low on the list unless Hoskins instructs Boras to seek that deal right now, which I would doubt. They have a lot more pressing issues than addressing a long term contract for a first baseman that they will have under team control for 4 more years.

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        1. Never give a big money, long-term deal to a first baseman. Deals almost never turn out well for the team. It’s the easiest position to fill and the drop-off from the top earners to the guys you can pick-up in the bargain basement isn’t that significant.

          Let Hoskins play through his arbitration years on a year-to-year basis and worry about the rest of the roster.

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          1. Yes…understand the first basemen aspect of it….though teams have done it in the pass…some with success …some not so much…. like Adrian Gonzo/Prince F. for two
            But if he can be swayed to take a larger over pay for pre-Arb and arb1….minimal over pay for arb2-4….and last two years at also an minimal over pay…..why not!
            Sure there is risk…..he may not turn it around…but if you can get him on a team friendly like Acuna and Albies and he starts to turn it around…it is a winning deal.
            The surplus value of the contract gives the org that much more flexibility in free agency.

            Now letting him play year tp year……if he comes around like we expect….with Boras as his agent, he will need to be extended in arb3 or 4 or he goes, like Rendon….and he still gets top dollar in arb3…..and then again in arb4…like Rendon now at $20M AAV.

            Like all valid contracts…both parties must agree on an exchange of value or services ….and I could see Boras being the x factor.

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  213. It’s my opinion the new 2021 CBA contract being negotiated or not if the players strike will effect current players in team control, early arb years and those on the verge if being FA. So the Phillies and Boras may be in a stalemate on Rhys until it’s figured out. My strong guess is team control of young players at the salary minimum will be reduced to two years as one major change.. The days of teams claiming they need player salary control for young players so they can afford to pay them when they get older and then trot analytics when their older and ready for a long-term contract and told by the team their best years are behind them and receive one or two year offers is done. The Harper & Machado contract examples are outliers.
    This one is less sure because the MLB owners need MiLB input but the something has to be done with the pay scale for players in the minors…It’s embarrassing… The MLB teams will be forced to share in minor league player salaries to some degree by a cost share arrangement. The MLB is making more money than ever. It’s not a economics issue. It’s a “this is the way it’s always been done” issue.

    Any thoughts from other posters would be interesting..

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    1. Hawkeye I’ve put this forth many times before so I agree. Owners can’t have it both ways. I’m a big believer in fair and equitable shares. I understand owners take on the bulk of risk when contracts are guaranteed a la Chris Davis.

      That said it will be incumbent on Tony Clark to craft a solution that works for both player and ownership. if a side chooses to dig their heals in on team control I fear a stalemate of the worst kind will happen.

      A good starting point was an international draft as now all teams have an equal chance at acquiring talent FOR THEIR FANS as any other team. Case in point with Japanese players wanting to come over. We all know they almost always choose a west coast team. That should go away.

      So in my summation young players should have a quicker path to Free Agency and older players with a certain amount of time of service should be free of any attached compensation or qualifying offer that hurts a signing team. League minimum should be raised

      Owners should be allowed salary cap relief up to a certain amount for a single player once every 4-5 years. If a team is burdened with a bad contract that in many ways prevents them from spending on other players that might help them be more competitive.

      many things can be done to improve the competitive balance and it really should all be done with the fan in mind so a fanbase doesn’t have to sit through 5 years of 100+ losses.

      Like

      1. Great additional points.. I agree, teams need some protections also.. No deal works long-term if one side is disadvantaged…I think the chances of a strike in 2022 or earlier if talks implode and their is a lockout has to be at least 50%.

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  214. Well then there is this, WOW!!!!

    https://theathletic.com/1245510/2019/09/27/how-the-phillies-big-bet-on-changing-their-pitching-program-culture-and-coaching-went-wrong/

    Gelb writes this story and it is not good. The main points as best as I can:

    – The pitchers loved Kranitz and he had very good relationships with them.
    – Kapler was not a fan from the beginning but was pressured by the FO to keep him when he was hired.
    – In ‘18, Kranitz’s role was to take data and analysis done by Young and implement it with the pitchers. They listened because they trusted Kranitz.
    – The Phillies declines to allow Young to be interviewed last off season and went with Kapler’s desire to fire Kranitz and promote Young.
    – The pitchers do not trust Young and there are anonymous quotes from Phillies pitchers. One said that they only focus on working with certain guys. Another said he didn’t want to comment further for fear of retribution by management. “It’s selective,” another Phillies pitcher said of the coaching approach. “They just decide most can’t be helped.”
    – The Phillies front office is pitching Middleton that their organizational approach is just taking time to implement and are requesting patience to put a perennial contender on the field.
    – Kapler saw Kranitz as defiant to him. They often clashed in post-game arguments. One in particular was related to Gabe’s bullpen management.
    – The decision to fire Kranitz and promote Young was made without discussing it with any of the team’s pitchers.
    – The Phillies decoded last off season that quant changes that a Young would implement would drive significantly improved performance of their staff this lessening the need to acquire pitching. Although it doesn’t say who specifically, it’s implied that it’s Kapler and Klentak.
    – Many pitchers chose to just ignore the game plan during games because they felt it was too predictable and they didn’t believe in it.

    Go Birds!!!

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    3. I was just about to post this same article. I highly recommend that everyone read it. It is exceptional research and writing.

      Buddy’s summary of the article is different than my takeaway.

      My summary is that they tried to be innovative. They tried something well thought out, but it failed. They admit the strategy failed and are likely to make more changes.

      I don’t blame them for trying something innovative. It is so hard to win. So competitive. So trying to change the model is a smarter approach than paying 6/$30 AAV for a 29 year old pitcher in free agency.

      Here is a money section:
      “It was based on a successful model. Young, 38, came to the Phillies from the Astros, a team at the forefront of innovative pitching strategies…Two central tenets to the Houston model became Young’s guiding principles: He wanted pitchers to throw their best pitch as much as possible and he expanded the rate of four-seam fastballs thrown at the top of the zone.

      The Phillies found the implementation of those ideas difficult in 2019. The team’s FIP rose by more than a full run — from 3.83 in 2018 to this season’s 4.91, which is tied for 24th in MLB.”

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      1. This throwing your best pitch the most often philosophy, to me, finally explains the stupidity of Nola, who has a great FB, with superb movement and command, inexplicably (to me, anyway), pitching backwards. If you looked at his stats in a vacuum, you might conclude that his curve was so good, he should throw it all the time. Wrong. It’s best when used as an out pitch set up by the FB – but that thinking evaporated this year even though he was a 10 bWAR last year. 10! Why anyone on earth would change what Aaron Nola was doing last year, is beyond me, but that’s precisely what they did. Look, I love stats and analytics, but you have to view these things in context and have some perspective. This is one case (and I’m sure there are many others), where they didn’t do that.

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        1. And I’m not the only one who has noticed this. If you listened to the radio broadcasts, all year, Larry Anderson has been flummoxed by the reluctance of Nola to lead with his excellent FB and to pitch off the FB.

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        2. now we have a better understand why the young pitchers regressed this season – all of them are somehow messed up by the new approach….

          I always loved Nola because of his ability to mix his pitches and when Nola started to make this work for him while improve the velo – come CY and turned Nola from a bonafide #1/2 to #3/4. Pivetta who most are to have a breakout year turned from a solid #3 to a DFA candidate and the list goes on and on….

          Again, the vision is exceptional but the Phillies don’t have the right personnel to implement this vision.

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        3. It is a good point and the strongest case that I have heard yet on why to fire someone. I don’t know who was responsible for this strategy decision, but it failed and they should be held accountable for it. It seems crazy that every SP went backward this year, but this article explained it. SP was our strength last year and was the killer this year.

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    4. Thanks for posting – I don’t have a subscription to the athletic, and would’ve missed this otherwise …

      That’s a nice insight into the Phillies, and shows the power struggle. Pitchers don’t like

      Kapler forced our kranitz, he gambled on young and the Astros success. Well that blew up in his face.

      Kapler is down to 2 outcomes. He is either fired shortly, or he has a very little wiggle
      Room next season. I’m starting to lean heavily that Kapler is gone… possibly before today’s game. If the pitchers don’t like Young, probably a good
      Chance they don’t like Kapler
      As well Since they think a like.

      Kapler is 100% gone if they lose 2 of 3 or more. It will make Middleton’s job easier. Kapler better have harpers support as well or no amount of analytical data will save him

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    5. Kapler likes control…unfortunate as it turned out, he is an alpha dog, and a former player who deserved some deference, type personality…..and his ‘boss’, Matt Klentak is more laid back
      The pitching coach change is just one example of Gabe’s influence in personnel maneuvering.

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    6. Buddy,

      Good summation. One small correction, I think: Didn’t the article say pitchers (plural) feared retribution, not just one?

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  215. I think stories like this show that what v1 and Hinkie have been saying about the FO are spot on. It also goes a long way to show that 8mark and others are spot on about Kapler.

    I will say this – if Middleton truly buys their argument that this approach will work and it just needs more time, and he’s going to Keep MacPhail and Klentak, he might as well keep Kapler since they are going to just go hire someone to execute the same system. In my opinion, I’m not buying it and I think all 3 need to go and we need a guy like Bloom to come in and shape this organization and take us in a new direction. This is a damming article and the timing couldn’t be better. Thank you Matt Gelb.

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    1. Data decoded into helpful information, personnel, and aptitude all need to be present for this to work. Why it’s being introduced at the major league level when so many players, who are already set in their own ways, will have difficulty adjusting to the “new math”. To implement it at lower developmental levels is sensible. To introduce this stuff in the Show and expect it to fly is a little ambitious IMO. I’m sure the Houston Astros didn’t just hit there advanced players cold with all this at once, did they?

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      1. My two cents, the Phillies May very well ave the right approach but guys like CY and Gabe are better suited in the kitchen cooking the soup and letting someone else serve that soup to the customers.

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        1. The big killer case in point was Tuesday night, AFTER the Phillies were eliminated, when Kapler and Young decided to push Nola to season high pitch count levels in the name of helping him feel better about ending his season, when all along they go by the numbers. Odd. I’m sure it had nothing to do with saving their own jobs in keeping the team record above .500, don’t you think? And avoid the inevitable? Amazing what lengths desperate men will go to!

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  216. Buddy, you beat me to it. I just read the article. The story did try to be objective. It was not an anti-Young piece. But was was clear was that he never had any “Coaching” background. He is a so-called whiz, my language, not the story’s, who came from a successful Astros organization, but who did not deal with players. He provided his analysis and others did the Coaching. It’s great that they are always looking for that “edge”. But, to fail at the coaching/personal relationships part of the equation negates any advantages they may get from their statistical analysis. And, to me, the whole notion that everyone should do things the same way, and the coaching job is not to maximize the strengths of the players, is completely wrong, and deserved to fail. And, if Middleton buys the nonsense that the FO just needs more time to implement their strategies, then we will flat out never win. The story used the last Nola appearance where, after being eliminated, they decided he should throw the most pitches he threw all season. Dumb idea, the duo of Kap and CY didn’t make many smart ones all year, an when it failed, of course it was the umpire’s fault. I cannot wait to say goodbye to the whole crew.

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    1. @matt – Kapler and CY’s inexperience in their roles hit the Phillies big time and this decision points directly at Klentak.

      Klentak should have implemented this vision early in the rebuild and not when the team is ready to contend.

      And McPhail with his lack of sense of urgency just magnified this non-sense. A total failure in the FO. Middleton must ACT now.

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  217. vi, I always respect and appreciate your opinions. I disagree with the “well thought out” part. I don’t think a “one style fits all” approach works. I think they disregarded the personal element in their planning and they hired a guy without real coaching ability. No question, seeking to gain an edge is laudable. Trying to be innovative is great. Using as much information as possible is good in any business. But, as soon as you forget that there are people, not machines, doing the job, you are doomed to fail. Young belongs as part of their analytics department, if at all, not as the Pitching Coach. I maintain that a coach’s job is to maximize the skills of his players, to understand what each player needs. Having them all throw 4 seam FBs up in the zone is not coaching. And the second part I disagree with is that they have admitted their mistakes. I have seen no evidence of that. John Middleton needs to admit his mistakes and clean house.

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  218. Vision and Execution are 2 different things. It appears that Klentak, Kapler and Young has a vision of a statistically driven pitching matching but the issue is that none of them have the track record in implementing that vision properly. Klentak is not a known winning GM and Kapler and Young are novice in their own field. From the onset, it looks like a disaster waiting to happen. If the Phillies have one proven personnel in any of those positions held by Klentak, Kapler and Young, I’m certain that this season ends differently.

    The FO requests patience because none of Klentak, Kapler and Young have the experience and expertise to implement the vision they have in the their minds. If the Phillies are in the rebuilding mode, possibly YES. But they are not, so Middleton should not buy their but instead, hire a more capable and experienced personnel to join the FO.

    Defending Klentak and Kapler is becoming more ridiculous each day.

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  219. I may not recall this verbatim but Nola said before…..”it is not about velocity. It’s more on changing your speed and location, keeping the batters guessing and setting up your best pitch to get batter’s out….” data and analytics can tell the pitchers and coaches which pitches are working and how well, but they should continue to instill this philosophy and mindset when they coach the young pitchers.

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    1. We can (and I have) point out the immaturity of kids like Pivetta and Velasquez, especially when they are being challenged at different points along their development. But to compound that immaturity with what Kapler and Young are trying to manipulate their progress is plain stupid.

      Reminds me of what Al Pacino told the internal affairs board in “And Justice for All” – “What you people are trying to do in theory, is commendable. But in practice, it sucks.”

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      1. 8mark….you refer to Vinny and Piv as kids…as they enter their age28 and age27 seasons respectively.
        Then I look at Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson under Mike Maddux’ and Dernier Orozco tutelage…both 2/3 years younger than Vinny and Nick.
        It kind of makes me think, just maybe time to move on from the two.
        Maybe another GM will be able to unlock their potential.

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  220. I wonder if John Middleton subscribes to The Athletic. The Gelb-Montemurro piece poses questions he needs to ask of both MacPhail and Klentak, if they haven’t been asked already. Then, at his press conference sometime next week, he’ll have a lot to explain one way or the other. MacPhail seems to have set these wheels in motion and more or less disappeared. Klentak, Kapler and Young all have to be considered complicit, no matter how noble their efforts, in utterly derailing the train at the departure of this projected run of playoff contention. You don’t keep people around for something this dysfunctional and call it a mulligan.

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        1. I feel a little bad even posting this joke because I really like the owner. I think he cares a lot and is a true fan and really wants just what we all do. I just feel, like I think we all do, that this is a real crossroads for the organization.

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          1. Let’s say Middleton spends big money again this winter, only this time on pitching, of course. Let’s say the 2020 Phillies record improves to say, 86 wins, but still short of the playoffs and no higher than 3rd place in the division. With Kapler gone but MacKlentak still in charge, how much would the philosophy change? You’re absolutely right, Buddy. This is a crossroads. Middleton’s decision will determine whether we tread water for a few more years or begin to truly be bold and turn the tide of mediocrity.

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  221. I read the Athletic piece as a subscriber and it was thoughtfully constructed – and seemed to go out of its way to be “objective.” The most critical thing to me — was an admission by Young himself that he is the mathematician, “but he needs to spend more time around the lunch table.” Really ? Now isn’t that profound ? I think I speak for all Phillies fans that the most OBVIOUS problem with letting Kranny go was HE WAS WELL LIKED AND RESPECTED BY THE PITCHERS. How was that going to be replaced ? What – with someone with a clip board ? This loss of personal contact was apparent the moment they told him to pack his bags.

    Moreover – this admission is very similar to many of the statistically motivated “moves” this team made in games. You don’t have to be a Dartmouth graduate to know that sometimes your gut tells you more than a tome of numbers. Both Young and Kapler lean on the numbers when in many cases – look at the people involved. The final note to me was — when Efflin came out and said – “I am doing it my way, not theirs.” And he proceeded to pitch much better with his sinker – what team allows a pitcher to say that ? or gives him the reason to air it out ?

    This team has slept walked since June. Another article in the Athletic sites the most critical losses of the year – all games which the readers of this blog are well aware spelled doom. If nothing else, today’s article and a review of the key losses article should make for significant changes going forward – you can bet on it. 8mark – things will go your way….

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    1. Like many people, I was impressed with Kapler when he was first introduced to us as new Phillies manager. Likewise, many of us were impressed with Chip Kelly because he was quick with his words. “Wow this guy is sharp.” Kapler’s persona, while a bit odd, was a breath of fresh air after the monotony of guys like Mackanin and Sandberg, and even the non-eloquent Uncle Charlie who most agree wasn’t exactly a tactical whiz. It hasn’t been since Larry Bowa that we’ve had a skipper with a real pulse. I guess I was glad somebody was finally hired who didn’t fit the old mode. Kapler is intelligent, but not baseball smart. He’s very articulate but doesn’t speak to the common man. There is no such thing as the perfect manager. It has SO much more to do with the roster. It’s all about what suits the players, not the “philosophy” just like you can’t dress everybody in the same clothing. Imagine Rocco in a tuxedo. (Just kidding, Roc)

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      2. rocco…..sure thing, just pull yourself away from the Borgata buffet for five minutes and go out to the nearest kiosk and purchase a copy. 🙂
        We Are!

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  222. Just read an article in which Belichick states that he uses “less than zero” analytics when making game time decisions………………………..very interesting indeed.

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  223. Sorry for all the analogies, but I liken analytics as used by Kapler and Klentak to GPS. It’s helpful if you’re not sure where you’re going. But once you’re familiar with the terrain, you shouldn’t need to lean on it, unless the heavy traffic indicator alerts you to take another route.

    Analytics should provide a profile of a player, not a play by play, pitch by pitch, script for the manager to micromanage the game. I don’t believe it’s a game plan. We all value heady players. Let’s not fill their heads with so much information that they can’t think straight.

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    1. 8mark…that is why the players have index cards in their back pockets when on defense…..no thinking involved….just go to point A .

      Like

  224. I, as 8mark stated above, understand the importance of analytics as it relates to understanding player tendencies. However, you can never convince me that a power bat in Hoskins should be batting leadoff. It couldn’t possibly have been looked at by any “expert”
    as a good baseball decision.

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    1. I’m pretty impressed with Connor Seabold – if the Phillies are going to improve quickly they will need some surprise breakout performances – Seabold is a topic candidate for that.

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      1. Seabold’s velo is adequate @91-93T94….his command and secondary stuff has to be on for him to get the results he wants.
        On the other hand, Bieber has similar .FB velo….but does have that wipe-out slider….not sure how Seabold’s breaking stuff will be.

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      2. Interesting enough, .Reading Eagle’s Mike Drago has Seabold at number 10 on the Phillies prospect list he compiles..

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  228. Let’s be clear, the Athletic article does NOT conclude that using analytics to adjust pitchers or hitters is the wrong approach. It only concludes that that approach was not implemented properly in 2019 on the Phillies.

    All of the top teams in baseball are heavily reliant upon analytics and the same hitting and pitching approaches that the Phillies tried this year. The shining example is the Astros. Who has an unbelievable knack for buying low on pitchers and turning them into studs. Their farm system is elite. Their lineup is stacked. An elite org top to bottom. The Astros are the poster child for an analytics driven approach.

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    2. Even the normally Astro astute analytical assembly can sometimes have a chink or two in their well-polished armor….the four that came the Phillies way in Dec 2015 for instance…a first rounder, and two second rounders…and Delaware’s Brett Obie

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  229. No argument at all v1. The Astros do something very differently from us. They don’t force the same approach on all their players. They also looked at their rotation and added Verlander, Cole and Greinke. And what they had before them was better than ours.

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    1. Matt money beat analytics ever time. They I guess developed those three pitchers? Change them to be studs? I wonder why there great Analytics didn’t help them develop all those aces, they had to buy them.

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  230. Jim Salisbury on NBC Sports Philadelphia this morning …. senses Gabe Kapler is getting fired no matter what happens this weekend.
    I’m not in favor of this move, but figured I would post the report because Salisbury (and Todd Zolecki) are as plugged in to the team as anyone.

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    1. I’m only sorry that Klentak and MacPhail won’t be leaving with him, Hinkie. Unless Middleton does some serious restructuring, it’s all but a half measure to set this organization in the right direction. The major league club isn’t the only part of the system that needs to be addressed.

      Like

    2. I am not in favor of the move either, but it doesn’t surprise me. Philly is a tough sports town the likes scapegoats when the outcomes do not work as intended. I honestly can’t think of a time when the fan base turned on a coach and that coach wasn’t fired. Once the fan base turns on someone in our town, they are done. Whether it was their fault or not. They are toast.

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          1. Charlie was soundly ridiculed as a country bumpkin and his game management was regularly questioned.

            Pederson was deemed by many as unqualified for an NFL head coaching gig.

            Both men literally won over the town mainly by having their players buy into his way of doing things.

            The majority doesn’t always have the loudest voice. In any case, I would need to see data to support your argument.

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            1. 8mark….correct.
              Quite frankly…without the ring in ’08 and the Super Bowl….they both would still hear criticism from certain members of the media…especially the sports talk media..

              Like

            2. I didn’t say “a manager didn’t have critics”. I said a fan base turns on a manager.

              But I don’t have data on this. If I did, I would have presented it. Not sure how you can show data on fan opinions.

              But this is not a hill that I will die on. Just making the point that generally when fan sentiment turns on a manager, they lose their job. And also that Philly fans love scapegoats.

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    3. Seems to me that if the Phils want to get rid of the person most to blame for this season, it’s Klentak, not Kapler. Klentak is the one who gave Kapler a starting staff that had 1.5 good pitchers (Nola, beginning and end of Eflin’s year) and absolutely no bench. Nothing either could do about the bullpen injuries and I am not absolving Kapler (or players like Hoskins, who really struggled) but Klentak’s the one who put a middle of the road product on the field.

      Like

      1. Klentak was not solely the deciding vote on the starting staff over the off-season.

        “FIP,” the Phillies manager said in late September(2018), “is more predictive of what will happen next year than ERA is and that’s why we look at FIP more than ERA. ERA tells the story of what happened including defense. FIP tells us what might happen going forward.”

        https://www.inquirer.com/phillies/philadelphia-phillies-pitchers-stats-fip-era-zach-eflin-vince-velasquez-20190118.html

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  231. For the record, firing Kapler will do nothing unless the people above him go as well, or Middleton issued demands that things change. Personally, if I am the Owner, and I have to demand changes, I change the people. Pick whoever you think is the best manager in Baseball, and put him in the dugout managing this team, and the results will be very similar. I am not a Kapler apologist, and I, frankly, get annoyed at the things he said. But, this season’s failure was on Mac/Klentak.

    Like

    1. I don’t think you can effectively change things by just canning the manager, without canning the GM. I don’t think MacPhail matters one way or the other. People will argue with that and don’t want him around because of his sarcasms and indifferent statements at press conferences, but I’m not sure he’s anything more than a go between anyhow.

      Like

  232. Unnerving to hear Gabe almost ‘plead’ to the media…..saying he wants to stay in Philly and can make the corrections…..enough already, accept your fate and the accountability, as all managers either get fired or step down on their own.

    Like

    1. From the Jim Salisbury story:

      “It’s not something I’m thinking about right now,” he said before Friday night’s game. “It’s not something I’m worried about and I haven’t had any conversations (with the front office) about it. I look forward to managing the Phillies for as long as I can and I am going to be thinking about doing a good job for every day I have that opportunity.

      “The only thing I think about is managing tonight’s baseball game and (continuing) as long as I possibly can. I love being the manager of the Philadelphia Phillies and will do it as long as I can and do as good a job as I can in that role for every day I have that opportunity.”

      From the Todd Zolecki story:

      “I couldn’t mean it any more authentically and openly. I am wired to focus on the task at hand, and the task at hand is managing tonight’s baseball game for the Philadelphia Phillies against the Miami Marlins and making sure all of our players are put in the best possible positions to succeed. I’ve been doing that all day today. I’ll be doing it all night and into tomorrow as well.”

      Maybe it’s me, Romus … but … I just don’t see him Gabe pleading for his job.

      Like

      2. .’ I look forward to managing the Phillies for as long as I can and I am going to be thinking about doing a good job for every day I have that opportunity’…that is close enough for me..

        On another note.
        There is plenty of shared blame and also the like responsibility has to be shared…..but Matt Gelb just aired the tip of the iceberg when it comes to who wanted personnel changes in coaching and player acquisitions.
        Matt Klentak. unfortunately does not have the same temperament and fortitude to conviction as some of his older peers, i.e. Cashman, Dombrowski…..and so, perhaps because of his nature, has to absorb some of the blame.
        But ultimately, the manager usually is the one that wil get the hook.

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  234. I’m assuming Kapler is gone and Klentak remains. Not thrilled, but we move on. I have to put Cole at the top of my wish list. Even at $200 Million. Hunter, Nicasio, Neshek are gone, That is slightly over $25 Million. I trade, or non-tender, Cesar, and that saves 7.75 Million, based on this year’s $. We all know he is due for a raise. I figure we have to eat half of Doobie’s $6M to get rid of him. I trade or non-tender Franco and that saves $5.2M. That is in excess of $40 Million. We can extend JTR and sign Cole and be in the range of what we spent this year. We have plenty of $ left for 2 RPs, even if one, like Will Smith, gets $10Million. I start the year with Brad Miller at 3B until Bohm is ready mid-year. So, Rhys, Kingery, Segura, Miller/Bohm, Cutch, Haseley and Bryce, JTR behind the plate. Cole, Nola, #3 TBD, Arrieta, and Eflin. Howard in mid-season, and VV to the BP. With more coaching, by which I mean bolstering each player’s strengths, individually, I think this is a Playoff team.

    Like

    1. matt13…Middleton will have to be the high bidder for Cole.
      IMO, 6 yrs @ AAV $30/32M range…..and probably higher if he ends up with the Cy Young, along with a WS ring this year.
      The Sox will be under the thresholf for the first time in awhile….so maybe they will abstain from the bidding.
      Yankees and Angels….looks like they will be in there for sure.

      Like

  235. Romus, I expect to have to be the high bidder, and I think $200 Million. I see a gap, and everyone can make their own judgment about how big the gap is, between Cole and Zach Wheeler or whoever is next. I am not forgetting MadBum. But I don’t think he comes here. And there is a big gap between Cole and him anyway. The Angels look like they will be in on Cole, for sure, but they don’t spend all that much anymore, and we all thought Corbin was definitely going to the Yankees last year. look what happened. Whatever it takes, 6 years, 7 years, we have to get a TOR, and there is not another option that I see. Odirizzi, Wood, Porcello, they are ok, and guys I would get if we add an additional SP and don’t bring back Smyly. Not instead of Cole.

    Like

    1. Signing Gerrit Cole would be huge, but the more important moves the front office needs to make this winter are seemingly smaller ones….ones Klentak hasn’t been making – acquiring CBA and supplemental draft picks, international money, and the like. The most recent top picks seem to project well. Bohm, Haseley, Stott, Miller, Sebold and Howard hold reasonable hope for major league success. But the nonexistent depth must be addressed. That’s how the elite farms are built. What we can’t project is how well or IF the young talent will be developed. Changes are probably in the wind. But change itself doesn’t promise progress.

      Let’s be clear. Firing Kapler is better than not firing Kapler. BUT again, will the next manager only be an extension of Klentak and company? I don’t know how Middleton is processing all this. We can only hope he’s taking into consideration the broader scope of keeping his front office intact. I only hope he surprises us with his course of action.

      Like

      1. 8mark….”acquiring CBA and supplemental draft picks, international money, and the like”….if I can fault Klentak for anything specific….it would be how he is so ‘late- to the- show’ on these type of activities. Hinkie and I have harped on this so much.
        He has the resources to do this at a high rate….but is reluctant.

        And the one guy this off-season, that he can do something with in these regards is Odubel Herrera.
        GMs would gladly take Doobie off the Phillies hands for a comp bal Rd A or B pick….or an international draft pick.
        It is a low sale for sure from the Phillies standpoint…a MLB player, with experience and proven track record, 28 years old, great controlled contract, and coming out of a penal condition who probably has reformed by not playing the only game he knows.

        But will Klentak be able to let go?
        Gillick did it with Abreu 15 years ago….for CJ Henry….ahh who!
        Basically yuo are giving away Herrera…since picks are so risky

        You just have to avoid hording excess player inventory.

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  236. 8mark, I agree with you. I want them to do all the things you suggest, and I still want to make the Playoffs next year. And, I don’t trade any of our top prospects to get a TOR. That is why I pay whatever it costs for Cole. To trade for a comparable Pitcher, and I don’t know who that would be, would require us to decimate our farm system. I have no interest in doing that. Cole costs money, we have a lot of it, and Middleton needs to get it done. I hope!

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  237. If any of you see my sign at the game tomorrow, feel free to say hi. And all are welcome to take pictures of/with it.

    Like

    1. Dan … congratulations on your summer stadium tour. Hope and expect to see you on today’s broadcast.

      Speaking of the Phillies TV broadcast … I found it humorous/ironic last night that Greg Murphy and Ben Davis were complimenting Bryce Harper and his teammates for not mailing it in after being eliminated from playoff contention. They did this while TMac decided to skip the final two games in favor of football work.

      Like

        1. Ah, wasn’t sure if I made it on or not. Thanks for the heads up.

          Ironically the Marlin reporters interviewed me to begin the tour in Miami (where the Phillies lost), and then again today (where the Phillies lost…), but no one from the Phillies ever reached out to me.

          Ce’st la vie, was a fun trip and got to meet a lot of cool people. On to the next trip.

          Like

          1. Dan … Greg Murphy was in the booth for TMac. Serena Winters was reporting from around the stadium. However, because it was Fan Appreciation Day, she seemed to have a lot on her plate. Mike Schmidt suggested she visit with Garry Maddox (who was sitting behind the plate), but she never made it to see him either.
            BTW … once again they (Murphy) referred to you by your full name. I won’t post it here since you go by Dan K.

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  239. I hope everyone is right about Kingery. his numbers in over 800 at bats doesn’t indicate, a elite player, or even a above average player, His strikeouts are a bad sign., for a while in the beginning of season, I admitted I was wrong about his strikeouts he was hitting but 130 strikeouts in 402 at bats is a lot and 18 hrs are nice , but I am still not sold on him as a above average player, I know cesar is gone I wonder how much if all of a upgrade Kingery will be, better defense, but the offense isn’t better imo

    Like

    1. I agree with Rocco here. Frankly, I’d jump at the opportunity to bring in another 2B if we had one. Unfortunately, that’s lower on the list of priorities than two starting pitchers, a CF, and some bullpen help imo.

      Like

  240. Rocco, I believe Kingery will bring 25 HR ability and continue to grow as a hitter. And, I think he will bring a high level of D. I can be bullish on him without knocking Cesar.

    Like

    1. 25 homeruns with a 250 avg. with a ton of strikeouts isn’t something I am bullish on, could be wrong. He just has too many swing and misses for me, Cesar is gone, My opinion on Kingery has nothing to do with cesar, Just so many think he is a big upgrade in almost two season hasn’t shown it,

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      1. rocco….let’s see how the eyes are for Kingery.
        Philly has top notch facilities, if it comes to it, in Wills and Scheie.

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  242. I feel Kapler is definitely gone and would be surprised if Klentak does also. I don’t see how a Maddon Klentak mix works without Maddon getting some autonomy and that has to come from Midleton. I just don’t see that happening. Either Middleton still buts into Klentak and we ger another Klentak pawn as Manager or Middleton cleans house.

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    1. Jim S. thinks Buck Showalter could be the guy because of his past affiliation with Andy M. in Baltimore
      I am leaning Joe Giardi back again with his wing man Rob Thomson.
      One thing he says….it will be a guy with experience this time.

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  243. Another one bites the dust…Pirates let go of Clint Hurdle.
    There could be 6/7 open manager vacancies this off-season.

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    1. matt13..IMO, .if the 55-yer old Girardi could co-exist with Cashman for 10 years, he should be able to do the same with Klentak.
      But quite frankly….John Middleton probably does not care one way or the other…..Klentak is probably on a one year probation now, and it will be up to him to adjust to whoever the new manager will be.
      IMO, Klentak let Kapkler run rough shod over him and the results proved unsuccessful….maybe he should let a proven past winner do his thing, wheter it is Girardi or some other veteran manager who has been thru the mill.

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  245. When Gabe bites the dust, I hope that they get right to the replacement task and not fiddle around til the cream of the crop vanishes.

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  246. Romus you really think Kapler called the shots? I don’t, I blame Klentak. I think Kap got hired because Klentak could control him. Upper cut swings, no closer, high zone 4 seam FBs, one approach fits all, I think that all came from Klentak.

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    1. matt13……IMO, Gabe told him what he wanted and Klentak went ahead and did it.
      –Wanted Kranitz gone, kept Young….done
      –2018 July/Aug,.bring in all the journeymen players….Cabrerra, Bour, Bats et al..no contnuity…..surly Klentak would not do that
      –Last two years handling of young players…Franco, Williams, JPC, Kingery
      –Lost the clubhouse in that players loss faith in him.

      As for the batting approach…it was Kapler’s guy Mallee that initiated that philosophy……Nov, 2017, he was hired as the hitting coach under Gabe after Matt stairs left…I do not think Gabe would have taken him if he did not want him.

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  247. I don’t know Romus, you may be right. I have nothing to argue with except the sense that all those things were Klentak driven. Anyway, I have no problem with Miller starting at 3B next year until Bohm is ready. Then, he and Jay Bruce make very nice bench players. We’ll ned a Right handed hitting multiple position player also, along with everything else that we need plater also

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  248. Don’t worry 8mark, I’m not changing my mind, but Brad Miller might finally be an example of a player that this GM found and manager/staff turned into something better.

    Now the question is, can Brad Miller play a good enough 3B to get a chance next year to be an everyday player?

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    1. Miller did hit 52 HRs over a three year period ….’14-’16, so he does have some pop in his bat….and some swing and miss.

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      1. press conference pls fire them all. Romus i might be getting some nice fitted phillies hats hot, what size do you take without your wig?

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  249. The season ends with Sean Rodriguez standing in the on deck circle. How fitting would it have been to see SRod up to win or lose the game and be the difference between a winning or losing season? What a letdown.

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  250. Rhys’ needs to come around in 2020.
    2019-RISP- .219 BA…47 RBIs in 151 ABs
    2018-RISP-. 264 BA…62 RBIs in 129 ABs

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  251. I am not questioning. At all, the value of analytics. Only the one that discounts RBIs. This was clear this season. Rhys and the whole team with the exception of Bryce were terrible with RISP. Someone needs to step up in those situations and I look to Rhys to do much better. 25 RBIs better. How long before the announcement on Gabe?

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  252. The reason why this board is as great as it is is because of the thoughtful responses people make. Read CSNPhilly and it’s juvenile, at least here you get measured.

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  254. If you can keep your head when all about you
    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
    If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you
    But make allowance for their doubting too

    Those are the first four lines from the Rudyard Kipling poem “If”. Seems fitting that Gabe Kapler uses it in his Twitter profile.

    Terry Francona’s record during his four seasons as a manager with the Phillies was 285 – 363. In his 15 seasons after leaving Philadelphia, Francona has 1,382 wins and just 1,045 losses. He has won three Pennants and two World Series titles, and has never had a losing season since getting fired from the Phillies.

    Joe Torre spent the first five years of his managerial career with the Mets. While there, he totaled 286 wins and 420 losses. Torre left the Mets and racked up 2,040 wins vs 1,257 losses, and captured 6 Pennants and four World Series titles.

    I’m not telling you Gabe Kapler will turn out to be the next Tito Francona or Joe Torre. I’m just trying to make the point that, many times, young managers mature and learn from their mistakes and go on to have tremendously successful careers. You can knock Gabe for different things, but there should be no one questioning his intelligence.

    Firing Gabe Kapler is the easy move John Middleton can make.
    Not firing Gabe Kapler is the brave move John Middleton can make.

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    1. Hinkie for someone who really follows the game, I am surprised, You can always find a guy who starts off bad and gets better, You see signs. NOT ONE THING GABE does or did indicates he is the guy, He is lost and really if he didn’t play the game. I would say he knows nothing, Just looking at how he handles his starting pitchers, pulls them after six innings, cause of stats, even though he has a bad bullpen. Plays the odds, in a game of feel, Good managers have a feel for the game He has none. Your campaign for gabe is so confusing. He would screw up h the houstons astros . He just isn’t a good manager, I saw a post where someone said, he didn’t lose any games, his moves hurt us in many games which led to loses, I still cant get over his coaching staff how bad. the guys he bought in Hitting coach terrible. Piching coach, tries to change kid in effin who is pitching pretty good to change how he pitches ,almost ruins the kid, Gabe didn’t stop it, because he is all stats no feel, Charlie has a feel for the game, Dallas did, a lot of good manager play each game on how it unfolds, not gabe third time around you done. but I only threw 58 pitches, third time around you out, so stupid and when you do it to your ace, just shows he could manager from his couch at home and call in ,stats say you out, Stat are only a part of the game not the whole game.

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      1. rocco……you make good points.
        Some also made by writers in the media.
        BTW….that was 68 pitches with Nola, in Gabe’s very first game as a manager in Atlanta last year.

        Again yesterday after the game he reflects on how much he loves the team, the management group, the city and fans……..BUT the one telling six words he said that were an indictment on his managerial success , or lack there of,
        were these words…..”they give you so much autonomy”

        He called his shots these last two years and it failed in materializing in results
        from the personnel changes he made.

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    2. His nickname will change from stupid money to stupid cigars if he doesn’t fire him. Gabe Kapler makes more egregious managerial mistakes in a week than Francona did in his entire tenure here. He had a bad rebuilding team and then went on to manage teams in Boston with a top 3 payroll every season. Square peg, round hole my friend.

      Like

      1. I think you guys have Terry Francona 2019 on your minds, and don’t harken back to Terry Francona late 90’s. Francona and Torre (and others) took their lumps early in their managerial careers before figuring things out. I was the first person on here to post that Kapler won’t last long as Phillies manager after he committed his original sin of removing Aaron Nola way too early in his initial game with the Phils (I’m going to look for that post in a little bit). To his credit, Gabe learned from that mistake and gave Nola more leeway from there on out. My opinion is … why let Gabe do his apprenticeship here, and then let him go take what he has learned/what he has matured into to another franchise. Give him another year with an actual pitching staff.

        rocco … as far as the in-game moves you criticize … Kapler was managing out of desperation. He had one good starting pitcher and two reliable relievers. Blame Matt Klentak for Gabe having to manage that way.

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        1. Buddy … In his four seasons with the Phillies, Terry Francona managed guys like Mike Lieberthal, Scott Rolen, Bobby Abreau, Pat Burrell, Darren Daulton, Rico Brogna, Mickey Morandini, Kevin Stocker, Curt Schilling, Randy Wolf, and Ricky Bottalico. You describe this as “a bad rebuilding team(s)”. Is that group any better than the club Kapler had in 2018? I don’t think so. With these players, Francona went 285-363 (that’s a .440 winning percentage).
          My point stands: sometimes, young managers struggle early, but many (especially the smart ones) mature and learn from their mistakes, and go on to become top managers in MLB. Francona and Torre are just a couple of examples of this.

          To the point that Francona became a better manager with a better roster … I absolutely agree. If the Phillies go out and sign Gerrit Cole and rebuild their BP this winter, I would bet Gabe becomes a better manager too.

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        2. Hinkie, This really isn’t about “will Kapler be better next year?” I’m sure he would be. The real question is do you think he brings this organization a better chance to win a title in the next 3 years than Maddon, or Girardi, or Ibanez, or Showalter, or Bochy, or Hurdle, etc. Do you?

          Here’s the thing, it’s not Gabe’s fault alone this team missed the playoffs. But even if they did make the playoffs, considering his horrific in game decision making, do you trust him to successfully manage in a 7 game series? What has he done vs some of the other choices, particularly Maddon?

          Bringing him back, when you could land Maddon, is like hiring Blind Melon to do the Super Bowl halftime show when The Rolling Stones are available.

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    3. Hinkie, I get that you like Kapler. And he’s not THE biggest problem with the Phillies. It’s organizational. If Klentak stays while Gabe goes, it pretty much defeats any purpose unless Middleton restructures the front office and redefines Klentak’s responsibilities. Having said that, the players have to buy in. And while Gabe is intelligent, he hasn’t shown a propensity for envisioning his team, apparently. That’s huge.

      Like

  255. I’m glad the Phillies finished in 4th place, can’t cover up the ugly holes this way.

    I think Gabe starts next year. Will know in the next 3 days for sure, though I’m thinking it’d of happened already by now.

    At this point, I ride Efflin in the rotation, “if” the pitch to contact is what turned him around. He has always been streaky though, neeeds the consistency or trade him to BAL. of the three we gave the SP roles to, I let him start next year and Pivetta and VV can try to push him out. One will keep the spot warm for Howard.
    By the trade deadline next year – the rotation will be FA (Cole pleeeeeeeease) Nola, Howard, Arrietta,Efflin .. possibly add one by trade

    At this point, you need to pay G.Cole’s ransom, which will be higher to play here vs elsewhere. Keep the resources we have, to make trades at some point.

    Lastly, How about Miller? Is that 3 or 4 multi homer games?

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  256. Hinkie………my thought is that we can’t wait 4 or 5 years for Gabe to get up to speed. I think he is intelligent, but like Rocco I don’t think he has a good feel for the game, especially when he is in the moment. At those times his intelligence seems to reach out to grasp analytics instead of his gut feeling or common sense reasoning.

    Someone here previously posted the postgame discussions when his discourse doesn’t seem to reach the common man’s intellect. I agree with that poster.

    I think we need someone who can exercise some discipline and add some continuity to the day to day lineups and management of the team. Someone who can stop the regression of the skill set of the players and instead improve them.

    I’m looking for improvement in 2020, but I think it will be an uphill battle. IMO there are too many faces that need to change. Players, coaches, FO, and the manager. If they don’t address the situation we will be looking at the same results next year.

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  258. @Hinkie, while I will not disagree with you that Kapler can be potentially a decent skipper — but I agree with Jim above that the Phillies are in WIN NOW mode and cannot wait any more for the “true” Kapler to come and lead the team. I’m certain that Chris Young is “intelligent” too but the lack of experience caused them to make big mistakes — mistakes that a contending team should not be making.

    And also, there should be a good balance within the FO. McPhail being detached and Klentak being risk averse, lacks creativity and issues in finding talent – the Phillies cannot afford to have an inexperience skipper like Kapler who is still struggling to find his way around.

    My preference is too move on from the current FO of McPhail, Klentak and Kapler. If that’s hard too do, one (preferably 2) of these guys needs to go. My order of preference will be:

    1) Fire the McPhail, Klentak and Kapler
    2) Fire the McPhail, Klentak but keep Kapler
    3) Fire the McPhail, Kapler but keep Klentak
    4) Fire Kapler and replaced by an experienced skipper like Joe Maddon

    McPhail is the most useless of the trio and should be fired on the spot but moving on from either Klentak or Kapler is almost necessary.

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    1. KuKo … I agree that this starts from the top. I’ve mentioned a few times already Middleton needs to start with Andy MacPhail. Chaim Bloom (a Philadelphia native) is still sitting out there waiting for a major market team to nab him. Look at what the Dodgers did (and have become) when they hired Andrew Friedman away from Tampa. I think it’s very reasonable to expect a very positive outcome for the Phillies to do the same with Bloom. Replace MacPhail with Bloom, and let Bloom make the decision on Klentak and Kapler.

      I saw someone post yesterday that the Phillies were hot for Buck Schowalter.
      So … let me get this straight …. instead of getting rid of Andy MacPhail, John Middleton is going to let MacPhail place another of his cronies into a decision making position.
      Let’s go back to 2016. At that time, Phillies fans were screaming for a manager who could use analytics. At the same time, Buck Schowalter was getting blasted for losing an 11 inning WC game after failing to use his best reliever, Zach Britton (despite warming him up three different times in that game).
      Gabe Kapler was getting slammed for the way he used his rag tag bullpen in August. Can you even imagine the abuse Gabe would have gotten had he lost a WC game because he used Mike Morin instead of Hector Neris?
      I don’t get it. What is John Middleton’s obsession with the Baltimore Orioles?

      Like

      1. To his credit, Showalter enjoyed “sudden leaps” (Kevin Cooney’s term in a good article today in Philly Voice) with NYY, Arizona’s successful early years, Texas and Baltimore. In a win now stage, the Phillies could do worse than with a guy who has gotten results in fairly short order. Just saying….

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      2. @Hinkie – I agree about the fascination with the FO from the Orioles – McPhail and Klentak was not my preference to begin with.

        I like your suggestion about Chain Bloom. As 8mark suggested below, Bloom + a veteran skipper will be a significant improvement right away.

        To go back to Kapler, we cannot simply point to the lack of talent because this version of the Phillies has enough talent to be better than a 0.500 team. Most unexperienced skipper will have a successful year managing a talent laden team. What concerns me about Kapler is that almost none of the young players within the team thrive under his watch. Kingery had a very bad 2018 that anything he do in 2019 will be an improvement. And none of Kapler’s decision making is really innovative, he guess and hope gets lucky.

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    2. Maddon is an obvious popular choice to replace Kapler, but I have cooled on him since I declared BLOOM/MADDON in 2020. While he has certainly a proven track record of success, one might wonder if his luster is rusting. He made a couple of bad ingame decisions vs the Phillies this year and his tendency to meddle with the lineup and pitching staff provoke the question – is he now merely a more experienced version of Gabe Kapler?

      Joe Girardi had the advantage of managing a virtual all star team most seasons of his Yankees tenure. Was he more a product of Cashman’s Death Star?

      Mike Scioscia doesn’t seem to be a logical choice considering he butted heads with the DiPoto in Anaheim while Klentak was the assistant GM.

      I’m wondering how much Middleton has been wrestling with making changes. And if the Phillies move on from Kapler, are his eyes already set on a particular replacement? Or would this be a start from scratch if he’s taking the decision away from Klentak. I also wonder, if during internal discussions that a divide has developed between the primary decision makers – Middleton, MacPhail and Klentak.

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      1. Buck Showalter is someone MacPhail has a relationship from the past.
        He certainly would be a candidate if Andy has any input.

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  259. “The Kapler decision, according to multiple team sources, is in Middleton’s hands. The owner was present last week for organizational meetings held in a conference room outside of Washington while the team was in town. There is division within the front office about whether Kapler should remain manager. His apologists point to meaningful adjustments Kapler made this season. His detractors wonder if the manager’s message is ignored inside the clubhouse and cite the team’s lack of urgency as a reflection of Kapler”

    Matt Gelb from last night.
    https://theathletic.com/1252204/2019/09/29/the-gabe-kapler-decision-is-in-john-middletons-hands-and-phillies-must-decide-what-they-want-in-a-manager/

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    1. Romus, how about the team’s lack of urgency comes from the team President? I want nothing to o with Showalter, and I want MacPhail out as soon as possible. So, I will pass on another Oriole.

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  260. Putting aside the Gabe Kapler decision for a minute …
    It’s time to get to work on 2020.
    Job #1: fix the pitching problem. The first thing John Middleton needs to do is pay for a pitching coach with a proven track record of developing young arms. I’ve previously put forth a list of candidates. They include Dave Righetti, John Farrell, Ray Searage (he may or may not still have a job in Pittsburgh), and Kyle Snyder (buy him away from Tampa).
    Then the club needs to add quality and depth to their pitching staff. Buy a FA starter. Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Zach Wheeler, Jake Odorizzi, and Cole Hamels head a list of guys who will hit the open market. All of them (with maybe the exception of Hamels) will be wearing a QO, meaning they’ll cost money and a second round draft pick. I’d love to see the Phillies get Gerrit Cole, but the team’s history shows they don’t hand out 6 guaranteed years to pitchers. Cole will probably get that from somebody else (NYY’s or LAA’s). Zach Wheeler seems more like a realistic outcome (and he would be a major upgrade … as long as he stays healthy). I have been impressed with Drew Smyly since he first started throwing for the Phils this summer. I would bring him back. I think he gets a similar deal to the one Mike Minor got after 2017 (3 years/27 million), but I’ve heard other people (Corey Seidman) say he gets a minor league deal (just can’t see that happening).
    The bullpen could be a real challenge. The team has Hector Neris and Jose Alvarez, but nothing can be counted on after that. David Robertson will not pitch in 2020. Adam Morgan, Ser-Ant’ny, and Victor Arano may or may not be healthy. There’s no way Klentak picks up Pat Neshek’s option. I would be open to re-signing Tommy Hunter (he’s a guy more likely to get a minor league deal). The FA reliever class may not be easy to navigate. Will Smith could be a nice addition to the Phillies BP, but the Giants will probably tag him. Do the Phillies want to surrender another draft pick (in addition to the one they’re going to lose for signing a FA starter)? The 2020 draft class is loaded with quality arms. Aroldis Chapman would also cost a draft pick if he opts out of his deal with the Yankees. I really like Dellin Betances, but he’s barely thrown in 2019 because of injuries.
    I would sign at least one hard throwing reliever (maybe Daniel Hudson) and one side-armer (Sergio Romo or Steve Cishek). They’re all RHP’s, but I think the Phillies have finally developed their own LH options. Any of Ranger Danger, JoJo Romero, Kyle Dohy, Damon Jones, and jaKe the caKe could throw out of the big league BP in 2020 to go along with Morgan (if healthy) and Alvarez.

    One other 2020 thought … the most interesting decision Matt Klentak will have is what to do about Cesar Hernandez. Does he run it back one more season with CeHe at 2B, and have Scott Kingery play all over the diamond? A few weeks ago, I gave this pretty much no chance of happening. I now can see some sense in it. It makes sense in practical terms. I think it’s mostly going to be a “Can we make it happen financially?” decision.

    Finally …

    I am not endorsing (or opposing) any of these deals. I’m just asking “Would you do” any of:

    A) (4 years of) Nick Pivetta for (2 years of) Mychal Givens and (4 years of) Tanner Scott
    B) (4 years of) Nick Pivetta for (1 year of) Ken Giles
    C) (3 years of) Zach Eflin and Johan Rojas for (1 year of) Mike Minor
    D) Adam Haseley, Bryson Stott, and Adonis Medina for (3 years of) Matthew Boyd
    E) Adonis Medina, Francisco Morales, Erik Miller, and Luis Garcia for (2 years of) Robbie Ray and (2 years of) Archie Bradley
    F) Adonis Medina for (2 years of) Jose Urena

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    1. One last thing … I’ve been plugging the Hinkie plan to hire Iron Chef Massaharu Morrimoto as Director of Clubhouse Food Services for forever (to no avail). Wanted to make a couple of other off field suggestions for the Phillies:

      * Bring back the (whoever wants to sponsor it) Stump The Fans Trivia Question on the TV broadcast. I have no idea why they dropped it this season.

      * The other thing the Phils need to dust off and pull out of the moth balls is the stadium organist. I love watching the Phillies play the Dodgers in LA just to hear their guy play the organ. I especially like when he follows a guy’s walk up song (Alex Verdugo’s is really wild) with a riff on the keyboards. Their organist really rocks Dodger Stadium (maybe Dan K can chime in on this since he was there this summer).

      .

      BTW … The organist in Atlanta is also very good.

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    3. @Hinkie – I agree will all you posted but I will stay away from the trades especially this trade —- Adam Haseley, Bryson Stott, and Adonis Medina for (3 years of) Matthew Boyd. Boyd is a #4. He’s nothing especial. Haseley is a legit MLB player and I’m optimistic that Stott will be too. I’m a believer of Medina. He will be a better pitcher than Boyd by 2021.

      On the top of the organization changes, Gerritt Cole (who I’ve been clamoring since early this season) will be my offseason goal. The poor 2018 will make Middleton mad, and an angry Middleton will go after Gerritt Cole at all cost.

      I will not give up on Pivetta yet. Chris Young is just not the right pitching coach for Pivetta and most of the young arms. Pivetta and Vinny will be my back end starter focusing on their potential plus FB and breaking balls. Will Smith will be my target but not with a QO implication. I will audition Jake the Cake, Dohy, Jones and JoJo as a lefty pen arm in the ST. I expect Austin Davis to be better with a different pitching coach.

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    4. I would do F and consider E. I think Pivetta is turning the corner…as a reliever would retain him and give him another year.

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  261. Hinkie, I am on board with the notion that firing Kapler does nothing as long as Mac/Klentak are there. Let’s say John Middleton feels the same way, and wants to see Kapler with a Pitching Staff. Do you send him back next year as a lame duck? Do you tack on a year, and fire them all if the team fails again next year, and just eat more money? I want to win, and I want to win next year, and I agree that the best Manager in Baseball would not have done appreciably better with this team. I would also not like to waste next year, as well. So, what would Hinkie do?

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    1. I would replace MacPhail with Chaim Bloom and let Bloom make the call on Klentak and Kapler. It doesn’t sound like this is even an option for Middleton.
      Therefore, I would bring Kapler back with a year tacked on to his contract. Eating an extra 800-thousand dollars shouldn’t matter at all to John Middleton if he wants to dump the trio next year.

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  262. Hinkie, I would probably do A, and would consider F. I need to know why Medina went backwards. I disagree with the notion on Cole. Only to the extent that, after this year, losing out on Corbin, the rest of the SP problems, Middleton does not let himself be persuaded that the length is an issue. I think he says to get Cole no matter what. That is how we get him. Outbid the Angels. I don’t think the Yankees go that deep for him. I get no sense that Middleton is, at all, considering firing Mac/Klentak. A new Pitching Coach is crucial, and as I don’t think Uncle Charlie takes the job full time, a really good Hitting Coach is equally important. We have to straighten out Rhys, and I think a good coach helps Kingery improve, as well. In short, it is certainly doable that we address the issues that need to be fixed to put a Playoff team out there next year.

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