Open Discussion: Week of May 20, 2019

The Phillies went 4-3 last week.  They won the series opener against Milwaukee, then dropped three in a row.  They followed that with a series sweep of the Rockies over the weekend.

Now, for an even tougher week as the Phillies go on the road to Chicago for a four-game series against the Cubs and Milwaukee for three.

The Phillies are 27-19 and in first place by 2.5 games over the Braves.

Offensively, they are 6-8 in most categories in the National League.  They’re third in doubles and walks.  And have struck out the fifth fewest times.

Defensively, they have the best caught stealing percentage (45%), but the fifth most errors and the tenth best fielding percentage.

Pitching’s a mixed bag.  They have the 4th best ERA, 4th lowest runs and earned runs allowed, 5th fewest walks, but also the 4th most HR, 4th fewest strike outs, 2nd highest batting average against, and 5th highest WHIP.

What may seem like a real shocker is that the Phillies have the third best save efficiency at 80%, 12 saves in 15 opportunities.  Go figure.

The 40-man roster stands at 40, the entire organization stands at 353.

This is the Phuture Phillies Open Discussion for Phillies and other baseball topics.  Still don’t want to hear about any mythical Trout trades.

Key Dates:

  • June 2, 2019 – DSL Phillies Red begins its 2019 season
  • June 2, 2019 – DSL Phillies White begins its 2019 season
  • June 3-5, 2019 – 2019 Rule 4 Draft
  • June 14, 2019 – Williamsport begins its 2019 season
  • June 24, 2019 – GCL Phillies East begins its 2019 season
  • June 24, 2019 – GCL Phillies West begins its 2019 season
  • July 31, 2019 – Non-waiver trade deadline
  • September 1, 2019 – Roster expansion to 40 players (for the last time)
  • September 17, 2019 – beginning of the Arizona Fall League
  • October 12, 2019 – Arizona Fall Stars Game
  • October 27, 2019 – Arizona Fall League Championship Game

The rosters and lists are up to date. 

5/19/2019 – Phillies activated SS Scott Kingery from the 10-day IL
5/19/2019 – Phillies optioned RF Nick Williams to Lehigh Valley
5/19/2019 – 3B Jose Antequera assigned to Lehigh Valley from Reading
5/18/2019 – RHP Tom Eshelman assigned to Lehigh Valley from Reading
5/18/2019 – LHP JoJo Romero assigned to Reading from Lehigh Valley
5/18/2019 – RHP Jake Kinney assigned to Clearwater from GCL West
5/18/2019 – RHP Gustavo Armas assigned to Clearwater from Williamsport
5/18/2019 – RHP Julian Garcia assigned to XST from Clearwater
5/18/2019 – RHP Austin Ross assigned to XST from Clearwater
5/17/2019 – Phillies optioned LHP Austin Davis to Lehigh Valley
5/17/2019 – Phillies recalled RHP Enyel De Los Santos from Lehigh Valley
5/17/2019 – RHP Kyle Arjona assigned to Lehigh Valley from GCL East.
5/17/2019 – LHP Abdallah Aris assigned to Lehigh Valley from Williamsport
5/16/2019 – Phillies sent SS Scott Kingery on a rehab assignment to Reading
5/16/2019 – RHP Blake Bennett assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport
5/16/2019 – Lakewood placed RHP Ben Brown on the 7-day IL
5/16/2019 – RHP Mark Potter assigned to Lakewood from GCL East
5/13/2019 – Phillies signed IFA RHP Norman Anciani to a minor league contract
5/13/2019 – Phillies placed RHP Edubray Ramos on the 10-day IL, shoulder stiffness
5/13/2019 – Phillies sent 2B Scott Kingery on a rehab assignment to Lakewood
5/13/2019 – Phillies recalled Austin Davis from Lehigh Valley
5/12/2019 – Phillies optioned LHP Austin Davis to Lehigh Valley
5/12/2019 – Phillies selected the contract of LHP Cole Irvin from Lehigh Valley
5/11/2019 – Phillies signed IFA RHP Raul Mendoza to a minor league contract
5/11/2019 – Phillies placed RHP Vince Velasquez on the 10-day IL retro to 5/7/19, forearm
5/11/2019 – San Francisco claimed CF Aaron Altherr off waivers from Phillies
5/11/2019 – Phillies recalled LHP Austin Davis from Lehigh Valley
5/11/2019 – Luis Cedeno assigned to Williamsport from Clearwater
5/11/2019 – Luis Ramirez assigned to Clearwater from Williamsport
5/11/2019 – Tom Windle assigned to Lehigh Valley from Williamsport

413 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of May 20, 2019

  1. The Phillies have decided to turn Quinn into a right handed hitter only. Were his splits that bad? Any word on when he might start a rehab assignment?

        1. Quinn may have been the one to want to initiate the change and just had the Phillies blessing on it.

          1. Altherr got one at-bat, Friday night, and struck out looking. Then he was designated for assignment. Some things never change.

            1. Quinn said, “Honestly, it’s something I’ve been thinking about my whole career.” Gelb notes that giving up switch-hitting was Quinn’s idea and he approached manager Gabe Kapler with it.

            2. It’s time to move on from Quinn. Should he be able to return in some capacity, fine. But any action by the front office should assume he won’t factor in their long term plans. And if Altherr couldn’t stick with a second division team like SF, why should we entertain bringing him back? I’m kind of disappointed that we didn’t snag Parra. He’s hit 3 HRs with the Nats since joining them last week. Seems a good fit as a 4th OF, but so much for that….

              Anyone else getting the sense that either Franco or Herrera won’t be here come August?

            3. Dont want to pick up anyone because we will have to drop Kap’s buddy Sean Rodriguez off the team

    1. He hit for more power from the left side. Better OBP from the right side in his minor league career.

  2. Anything that gives Quinn more confidence is fine with me. I just want him healthy and back on the 25.
    Sending Williams down so he could play and get his swing back is the move I wanted them to make. Trading him before he comes back is not impossible. I’m also wondering whether Vinnie and or Pivetta will come back as relievers. Personally I think a rotation with Irvin and Eickhoff is one slow ball pitcher too many if they both pitch in the same series. I think Pivetta or Vinnie needs to be in the rotation do the other team sees a fastball at some point.

    1. Murray – When I think of Quinn, I think of Jason Werth. If I remember correctly, Werth was injured a lot early in his career. The Dodgers gave up on him, and the Phillies acquired him to platoon with Geoff Jenkins. Werth went on to have a very nice career. At this point Quinn is our fourth best outfielder despite being on the IL. He’s not blocking any prospects, and we all know what he’s capable of when he’s healthy. There is no rush to get rid of him, or bring him up until he’s 100%. When he’s ready, he and Williams can play (and compete) side by side at Lehigh.

      1. Wawa, Quinn can only be assigned to AAA on a rehab stint, he cannot be optioned. He’s out of them.

      2. Jayson Werth’s injury is not the same as Quinn. With Quinn, it looks like his body is not holding up to the rigors of baseball. Werth had a broken wrist (from a HPB) when he was with the Dodgers. That injury lingered for 2 years.

  3. Some one asked why we would switch Hernandez and Cutch in the last open discussion.
    Bc Cesar is hitting 50 some odd points higher and not to mention his line doesn’t show what’s he’s done over the past 30 plus games
    And it’s not like this is a running team so the speed doesn’t matter much even tho Hernandez is faster than Cutch (obviously not the base runner).
    I want to maximize the line up we have, CeHe in the top spot does that. And to be honest at this point in his career, Cutch is more of a 7th hitter, not leadoff.

    1. I would dispute that Cesar is a faster runner than Cutch. I also think Cutch is just fine where he is in this lineup. Besides, the Phillies are in first place and have barely begun to hit. Why mess with it?

      This division is ours for the taking. The Nats are virtually out of the race if only because 3 teams are ahead of them. The Mets are a mess right now. The Braves have exceeded my expectations so far but their lineup is young and doesn’t compare with ours. As long as more crooked numbers are on the way, so should more W’s. Tough stretch ahead, but .500 ball should keep us in good standing.

      1. I’d rather have Cesar hitting 6th behind JTR where his 50+ point higher BA provides protection vs. McCutchen who’s .OBP provides more value in front of Segura/Harper/Hoskins than it does in front of Odubel and Franco. McCutchen also see’s more pitches per at-bat than Cesar which is another advantage of having him lead-off.

        I do think that Cesar is faster but Cutch is the better base-runner

    2. EricD…I am with you on letting Cesar get some lead-off’ time, until he proves he cannot carry the same slash he has now,….and Cutch in the 6th or 7th hole.
      But like I mentioned earlier…Gabe does not seem to want to tinker with his four new veterans.

      1. Nor would I. We can debate slash line leadoff worthiness of either Cesar or Cutch. The latter is much less likely to be picked off or caught in a moment of indecision and/or confusion on the basepaths. At the top of the lineup is where you want a mentally sound player who in this case has comparable speed.

        Now, how about we focus on how the starting rotation is going to consistently keep the team in ball games by not giving up early leads. That’s of primary concern to me. Right now, I trust Nola will regain some semblance of stability. Eflin seems to know what he’s doing out there although he’s vulnerable to the occasional off night. Arrieta is a .500 pitcher. Irvin is unproven, albeit a potential bright glimpse of the future. Eickhoff may not be so effective against better lineups waiting to tee off on his hanging curve ball.

        1. Cesar has not been picked off in the last 56 games dating back to September 2018….that is a record pace for him. 🙂

  4. Denny, you can’t really complain about nepotism with Rodriguez considering he’s got a .261/.370/.522 line so far this year. That’s starter caliber. Granted he’ll most certainly regress, but he hasn’t yet. And he plays multiple positions decently well. That’s a pretty good bench piece.

    And for as much as you ring the Cozens bell, Sean has as many HRs in 28 PAs this year as Dylan did in 44 last year. Plus he’s hitting better in the majors than Dylan is in the minors. If you want Rodriguez off the team, offer a better alternative.

  5. It is not a question of speed. It is base running ability, baseball smarts, and the ability to see a lot of Pitches. Cutch belongs right where he is, leading off. And, Cesar has hit really well, this is not a knock on him at all. But we are much better with a player with Cutch’s approach and baseball instincts batting lead off.

    1. matt13…and when the Phillies go into their annual ‘June swoon’ losing streak……then is it time to make the changes?

  6. It’s much too early to consider trading Herrera or Franco. Right now Kingery is an unproven starter. His opportunity is now. Haseley’s bat may be coming to life but that is an uncertainty and Bohm is yet to even reach AA. Unless, some team makes an offer we cannot refuse for Herrera, Franco or both, it makes sense to keep them.

  7. Romus, I am hoping the swoon ended with those 3 terrible games vs. the Brewers. But, I am really hoping that having enough talent precludes that from happening this year. I see Franco, since his good at the beginning of the year, really falling off, and who knows what is up with Doobie, and I see the other regulars not having hit over their heads, so I think we can stay at the top of the Division all year.

    1. If Doobie, and say also with a Vinnie, in a deal, can bring back a Robbie Ray or Mike Minor, then I would have to consider moving him.

      1. Ray yes, Minor no. We have been bitten in the butt to many times. From the Bob Buhl, Larry Jackson, Ray Herbert, in and Fergie Jenkins out, …. days.

        1. Minor is having a break-out year…and he does have anther year on his contract…..
          the drawback….he turns 32 later this year, so he may not be a long term solution.
          But for the next two years he could make a difference.

          1. I agree, I am not adverse to Minor under those conditions, but I have to respect anyone who remembers Bob Buhl in a Phillies uniform.

            1. And that was not pretty – at all !!!!!!!! A-W-F-U-L – Buhl, I am talking about !

            2. Remember Saul Rogovin, he had 3 pitches……..slow, slower and slowest! Today’s slow tosses look like Nolan Ryan in comparison. Fastball wouldn’t raise a welt.

            3. Saul was before my time but just read that he retired at 35 became a liquor salesman then went to school and at 56 became a high school English teacher in New York City.

            4. As a 13 year old, I remember not being too excited about trading a young pitcher for an old 36/37 year old even though he had a couple of double digit winning season on the lowly Cubs. He went south fast and now who can forget Bob Buhl for Fergie Jenkins.

  8. Denny, don’t forget the legendary Adolfo Phillips. But, the point is a good one. There was the one trade deadline that Ed Wade traded for a number of RPs, none of whom was successful. So, we need to get it right. The question, I think, is not whether we will make deadline moves, but what the cost will be, and do we have enough ammunition to go get a top trade target? Minor and Ray will bring back a lot, and it seems that the way things are going, there will be a number of suitors.

    1. matt13…speaking of moves…looks like the Cubs are trying to get Ken Giles from the Jays. Cubs bullpen is not doing so well right now.
      As long as the trade is done after Thursday, that would be fine with me.

      1. I actually think Giles may be the best “available” closer, relief man – he has a better “feel” for things after that blowup in Houston. I would say he is certainly comparable to Kimbrel – the one we have watched who lost the strike zone. He is also slightly under the radar too..

        1. Just not sure what the Jays are asking for him….but looks like Theo wants him in Chicago. I assume Ian Happ, who seems to have taken a nose dive in the org, or maybe Addison Russell, may be a piece in the trade. Jays may also want pitching prospects in return.

          1. Jays need pitching prospects badly, especially since Sanchez and Stroman will be on the block very soon. The Jays are in full tank mode.

        2. Can we get him back? I remember another ex-Astro reliever that needed another chance and he came thru in 2008.

          1. Would be nice ….but not sure Matt Klentak will want to give up what the jays want in return.
            Have not heard what they are looking for but it could be some high prospects in the system.

      2. I’m ready for the Hamels vs Irvin matchup Wednesday. If Irvin prevails I will be crowing because I have been a proponent of his since last year.

    2. My favorite Phillie was traded for Adolpho, Johnny Callison. Cried on that one.

      1. Denny only kidding with you ,Johnny Callison was one of my favorites, him and tony Taylor, Remember the all Istar game Callison hits Homerun to win game against Dick Radish, He later was a car salesman in fact i believe he sold car when he played in off season, In early sixties they didnt make big money playing ball.

        1. I remember Johnny Callison always adjusted his helmet/hat at the top with his right hand when he came up to bat and Tony used to look at the top of his bat looking down at it before his at bat and then blessing it by crossing himself .

          1. Funny how kids remember those little peculiar idiosyncrasies of their favorite players….I remember those two and also lanky spread legs apart Don Demeter tugging at both his shoulders, where the jersey hung.

            1. Yes that is right, thanks for that memory.

              How about Bobby Wine stepping in the bucket against righties, maybe even lefties, lol.

  9. Giles has another year on his contract, I think, so the price will be higher than a rental. I don’t think we are in a position to trade a lot, especially since Gabe does use a Closer, in reality. Giles is definitely having a good year, but I am guessing that MattK doesn’t make a move until very close to the deadline.

    1. He was pretty good at it last year. It was pitching back to back days where he struggled. Seems like Neshak couldn’t go, they were saving Neris for the 9th and they wanted to stay away from Morgan.

      If he put Nicasio, Garcia, Alvarez, whomever in the 8th and they blew it people would be asking why he didn’t leave Dominguez in after how dominant he was. Lose/Lose. Seranthony needs to get it done.

    2. Neshek was supposed to pitch but he was sore and couldn’t get loose in the bullpen,

  10. JT saved the game and Kapler earlier bonehead move. You have to love JT — a quiet, hard-nosed professional, old school to the core.

    1. I didnt see game last night. But on replay that ball of Sir Anthony could have been caught i dont know about the two innings, as i said didnt see the game, Did he throw a lot of pitches in previous inning. how did he stuff look. i think that is a part of kape thinking, if he thinks.

      1. No, He was very good the previous inning. The problem with bringing him back for the 8th is that he’s shown that he doesn’t do well after sitting between innings for whatever reason.

        It’s the manager’s job to understand that and manage accordingly. If he wants to get Seranthony through that mental hurdle that’s great but that was the wrong situation..

        1. Gabe did the same thing last season on a few occasions…trying for that second inning magic with relievers.

        2. The numbers don’t bare that out. Since last year, Seranthony has appeared in more than 1 inning 17 times. He’s given up run(s) in 4 of those.

          6 ER in 27.2 IP in multi-inning games for a 1.95 ERA. He may walk more (don’t have time to calculate that right now), but he also strikes out plenty still.

          1. Curious…what are his splits on those metrics….ie, 1st half vs 2nd half of the season?
            If I recall he really falter in the 2nd half last season,especially with his control….and that may be the issue with the 2nd inning pitched.

            1. In multi innings specifically? I’ll take the half way point to be July 1st.

              7 appearances before July 1, 2018 for 14.2 IP, 3 ER allowed (1.84 ERA). Also 7 appearances after, but for 11 IP, but also 3 ER allowed (2.45 ERA).

              It’s also worth noting that all of his second half ER are from one appearance, whereas it was split into two appearances in the first half.

              SSS applies, obviously, but I wouldn’t be confident claiming fatigue for it.

            1. I do think, for Seranthony last season, his control got away from him in the 2nd half.
              Either, the players were not biting on the slider or he just did not have a feel for it..his walks did climb, and unfortunately he is still walking too many now., 4.6 BB/9 with the elevated FIP metric, is just not good enough.

      2. Maybe Morgan should have been pitching instead of Seranthony in the 2nd inning.

  11. Well, that may be the biggest W so far this year, especially after Kapler’s mismanagement in using Seranthony into his 2nd inning. But anyway, JTR with a game tying single, athletic play to tag Rizzo on Harper’s throw, and finally the game winning HR.

    And how about McCutchen working the walk in the 9th after being down in the count 0-2! How many other hitters on the club would have been able to do that?

    Winning the 1st game of a tough road trip against arguably the hottest team in baseball qualifies as a big win. And Jake came up huge against his former team. It wasn’t a walk in the park, but he got outs when he needed them.

  12. Kingery should go to CF on a more permanent basis.
    And once Quinn is healthy, after rehabs and returns….then Herrera needs to be optioned to LHV for about 4/6 weeks. He is hurting this team.
    A little humility and taste of minor league bus rides may wake him up….worked for others in the past

    1. I’m trading Odubel, Medina and Ortiz to Texas for Minor and Choo’s contract. Today. Please!

      FWIW, heard Eskin said that the Phillies are in on Kimbrel, presumably after the draft. I’d rather trade for a reliever but we’ll see….

      1. I dp think they Phillies can sign Kimbrel on June 3rd, the first day of the draft, and not lose the 91st pick and more international monies.
        Others said teams have to wait until June 6th, oncer the draft concludes.

        1. I’d love to see them bring in Kimbrel. Neshak, Hunter, and Nicasio will be off the books after this off season. Putting Kimbrel in the 9th takes a lot of thinking out of the equation for Kapler and they can use their resources on a starter.

          1. I’m good with Nerris as closer. How about the weekend with the hard hitting Rockies? Bullpen went 10 innings in total and only 1 run allowed, Alvarez. Chilax.

            1. I like to think Forrest Gump had the best description of describing a bullpen and the relievers in it…like a box of chocolates

            2. I don’t see one series as a good enough reason to not pursue reinforcements and depth. Kimbrel is an elite arm to add back there. You’d replace our worst arm with arguably the best closer in the game.

              Are you confident with Nicasio, Alvarez, Garcia, Ramos, etc in a playoff series?

        2. I wasn’t an advocate of the Phillies pursuing Kimbrel, especially at his salary demands that were floated around. However, if the Phils can sign him at a decent price and without losing a draft pick and international money, then I am all for it. Seeing 40+ games of the Phillies bullpen has changed my tune about Kimbrel. He’s not what he once was, but he can help.

  13. The bottom of our order reminds me of the days of Wine, Dalrymple and the pitcher

  14. You can’t crush someone until you have all the facts. Gabe planned on bringing in Pat N however he told him he couldn’t get loose. Gabe really had nothing he could do at that point.
    Did I mention, CeHe yet? Haha

  15. the problem with our bullpen is Kapler only has 4 guys he trusts
    Neris, morgan, seranthony and Pat N
    the others are used when there is no other choice and the big 4 aren’t available
    clearly we need more options that we trust or give more faith to ALvarez and Nicasio
    no matter, you just cant use Seranthony for a 2nd inning
    it just doesn’t work

      1. I’m hoping they take this opportunity and finally do what we all know is true and put VV in the pen

        1. sr….he is healthy now…so we will know soon what they will do with him…Irvin cannot be removed from the rotation now either.

        2. It will be interesting to see if VV or Pivetta does get moved to the bullpen. A good educated guess would say 1 of them does. Does that happen if they sign Kimbrel or make a trade? One of the plots to watch in the next so many weeks. Teams in contention almost always upgrade their pen, or at least try to, and it is usually an overpay

            1. Denny is correct. The combination of Irvin (opener) and VV should hold down (or at least be given the chance to hold down) the #5 spot in the rotation.

    1. Oh I agree with the bullpen being weak, 100%.
      I was just saying that several people jumped on Gabe without knowing more to what happened. I don’t just mean on here, twitter was up in arms as well.

      1. And Arano will probably go on an extended IL, maybe even 60 days, once he gets his elbow examined out in Los Angeles….so he will be one less pen arm available.

      2. Fair enough on the Neshek issue. My bad. I slammed Gabe without all the facts so – Klentak needs to get on gear with this bullpen. Granted, the misfortune of injuries to Robertson, Arano and Hunter have hamstrung the staff, but let’s give Pivetta and/or VV the opportunity. I would also entertain the possibility of including either in a deal for a TOR so we wouldn’t be SO dependent on this pen.

        1. it quite an indictment of relievers around the league that our depleted pen is one of the best statistically in the NL

          1. sr…relievers are so undependable and unreliable on a whole..if not injury , then consistency in performance…. probably best to keep a bushel of them on the farm with the Pigs.

        2. 8mark, honestly I was more so talking twitter, wasn’t taking a shot at anyone on here per say. The optics didn’t look good but once the game was over it made more sense. Pen def needs to be addressed.

        3. With Howard being on the IL the Phillies don’t have the resources to trade for a TOR. No one is trading the Phillies a TOR without Howard being included. People need to stop thinking the Phillies can get a TOR for the spare parts they don’t want in the team.

      3. Neshek’s theme: from the Mama’s and the Papa’s…….”every other day is fine, yeah”!

        1. Honestly, I don’t like it, but I can’t blame him. He knows his body, and we should trust him enough to save the “bullets” for the postseason. If it extends his career, that is a good thing for him, and likely the Phillies. The way he sees the league treating FA, I’m sure it has an impact on his decisions.

          Bottom line… those days are over. On the everyday player side …Cal Ripken’s record is safe for eternity. Give it enough time, and Roman Quinn’s DL trips will be the norm.

  16. Weekly CeHe update
    Jim P, feel free to open up a thread just for Cehe, it’s warranted ; )


    MLB Rank among 2B

    Runs: 8nd
    Hits: 2nd
    2B: 2nd
    3B: 2nd
    RBI: 8th
    BB: 5th
    Avg: 3rd
    Obp: 2nd
    Slg: 8th
    Ops: 5th
    WAR: 6th

    One might say that he’s an All Star, one might say that he’s one of the best 2B in the league.

    1. Cesar’s resurgence certainly presents Klentak with an interesting scenario and options. While a 2B alone isn’t going to fetch much on the trade market, the matter becomes whether he stays for the season (in which case we hope he sustains this level of production), after which he faces another round of arbitration and the prospect of winning $10+M through the process. OR Klentak tries to redeem his current value sooner than later since he’s financially committed to Kingery who IMO is a square peg in a round hole at any other position beside 2B. OR does he just let Cesar walk when it’s too late?

      1. Not saying this is the case, but there is no guarantee Cesar wants to stay. He may see all this as a disrespect when it comes to sign the ink. He may want to play with his buddy galvis again. Can’t take it for granted that he automatically resigns, that is klentak a job to feel out. If so, sell high.

      2. Unless the Phillies get blown away by an offer (which I highly doubt), Cesar will get his $12M-$14M in arbitration and play 2B for the Phillies in 2020, his final year. Then he will walk at age 31.

        Kingery will bounce between 3B and CF for 2020 (unless somebody gets hot), and he’ll take over 2B once Cesar walks.

  17. SerAnthony simply does not pitch well in the second inning. No matter how dominant he pitches the inning before, he can’t get it done. Gabe’s job is to know that. He didn’t have Neshek get up until after SerAnthony walked the first guy without throwing a pitch close to the plate. We also know that Neshek has trouble when he is used too much. There was no excuse for Gabe leaving SerAnthony in, and it almost cost the game. If there is not enough in the BP, then go get more help. It was a terrific win, with some really clutch plays, Cutch’s BB, Segura’s hit, of course JTR, but a lot of unnecessary drama. And that 3B should have been caught. It was Cutch’s ball all the way, and he only veered off course because Doobie kept coming. He is giving us nothing in CF. Below average D, poor base running, and hitting .230.

    1. Matt – Don’t be surprised if the Phillies make a move today in the bullpen. Last night’s game had the combo of Neshek being unable to get loose (at least he was honest about it), and Seranthony’s continued aversion to pitching a second inning. Pivetta is well rested, and is capable of pitching several innings.
      Another curious thought from last night is why Gabe didn’t use De Los Santos? If Gabe is not confident in him, he should be back in Lehigh.

    2. Oh, so Kapler still intended on using Seranthony into the 8th and then go to Neshek if need be? Then that changes everything. Besides, Dominguez is no longer any type of go-to arm in the bullpen. He’s another hard thrower (at times) who isn’t consistent. He’s just another bullet in the chamber of Kapler’s Russian roulette sidearm. In other words, Edubray could just as likely have been effective in the 8th.

  18. On Roman Quinn, we all know his issue. I am so curious to his workout regime, injury prevention workouts, diet etc. I’m curious if he possibly over or under prepares. Still shake my head at his “luck”. It is the equivalent of hitting the lottery and not being able to spend it”

  19. With Howard being on the IL the Phillies don’t have the resources to trade for a TOR. No one is trading the Phillies a TOR without Howard being included. People need to stop thinking the Phillies can get a TOR for the spare parts they don’t want in the team.

    1. Mike Minor wouldn’t command Howard in any return. It would require Medina, another prospect, and two young big leaguers. Jon Daniels (Texas GM) has had interest in the past in Doobie and VV.

      1. Mike Minor is posting a 3.3 WAR and he’s under control for around $10M for 2020. The Rangers are going to get at least a top 100 prospect. Medina is not going to cut it. And at this point, VV and Odubel are throw-ins. You have to give talent to get talent.

  20. I went into more detail above, but I’m not sure where you guys are getting the notion that Seranthony can’t pitch multiple innings. Including last night, his ERA when going more than a single inning is 1.95.

    It’s a small sample, sure, but that is definitely a good number so far (and his career is still a small sample at this point, so…). He blanks opponents way more often than he lets them on the board.

    1. Dan is right there is only one multi-inning stint listed on SD’s 2019 pitching log and that was last evening. However I am not sure if he entered a game, retired the last batter and then started the next inning and retired two if that constitutes an inning on the log.

      1. Jim, regardless of how many outs he records, Seranthony has difficulty finishing an inning, sitting down between innings, then starting the next. Something happens. Loss of focus, eye of the tiger, whatever. I’ve seen it on multiple occasions since he fell back to earth later last season.

    2. While we knock ourselves out trying to defend our respective positions, let’s remember that Seranthony’s ERA is 5.03. Would someone please explain to me why Kapler should have such confidence in him in last night’s situation. Against arguably the hottest team in the NL, I don’t care what Dominguez did in 2018. I only see that he’s regressed from the impressive pitcher he was (with little or no book on him) when he first arrived at the major league level.

      1. I am in agreement with you, he certainly has lost his swagger and mo-jo from when he arrived on the scene. If you get out of the inning with him without giving up a run, that’s good enough, next guy up!

        1. There were rumblings that Seranthony came into camp out of shape. This might be why he’s having such a poor start.

      2. That’s a different argument entirely, but a fair question. Another fair question, though, is what are his alternatives? We need Dominguez back to where he was, and if we don’t let him work out the kinks we’re in trouble. Plus, if Gabe only pitches the 3 same RPs (Morgan, Neshek, Neris) night after night, they’ll be joining Arano, Robertson, and Hunter on the IL sooner rather than later.

        He’s playing a balancing act with a bullpen that has fewer pieces than he expected. It happens. Baseball seasons are long.

  21. Dan K

    Unfortunately, there are posters who are so eager to bash Gabe that they simply disregard the “inconvenient” facts which support his decisions.

    1. I am critical of Kapler whenever he makes decisions deserving criticism. I don’t advocate that he’s not managerial material. He’s learning. It’s frustrating when I see the same mistakes repeatedly. He’s established a good culture for this group of players. He admitted a mistake a couple weeks ago. I’m fine with him personally. But a poor decision is a poor decision. Call it as it is.

  22. That’s just not true. I have no interest in bashing Gabe. Regardless of SerAnthony’s ERA, I have seen him, multiple times this year, lose his command and/or get hit hard in his 2d inning of work. So, I am basing it on what I have seen. He couldn’t come close to the plate, stayed in the game until the lead was lost, and yes, the player needs to oerform. But, the Manager needs to put his guys in the best position to succeed. Pitching SerAnthony multiple innings does not do that.

    1. I just checked his game logs and last night was the first time all year he’s pitched two separate innings. So either there is data missing or your memory is incorrect. Can you cite any specific examples of when he came back out for the next inning? If not, maybe you’re thinking of some other pitcher.

      If you want to take exception with using Seranthony for two innings because he’s struggling this year, fair enough. A struggling pitcher is more likely to implode the more chances he gets. But this narrative that he loses his control/command/feel between innings is unfounded and dubious at best. The guy was a starting pitcher as recently as 2017. He’s performed well in his limited chances of multiple innings. Don’t let recency bias change your outlook.

      1. I suppose he doesn’t have to lose the control between innings..he is doing it very well now within the one inning he is pitching this season.
        I cannot believe his BB/9 is that high until I realized when i checked his history……he never was a pitcher with much control…probably a 45 on th 20-80 scale…even as a starter in the minors..
        I was mistaken that he had the hi-velo with also plus control….but that is not the case.

  23. Can anyone think of an MLB player that came up as a perfect “prospect”, was a great player throughout their career with one club and had an ideal tenure: media loved them, no injuries and consistent stats? Just wonder if there was one.

    1. Mike Trout is getting there.

      I would say Chipper Jones, Barry Larkin, Tony Gwynn. Craig Biggio is up there even there he wasn’t a top prospect.

      1. I thought of him but he struggled at the beginning and had tough times with media and fans at times. Maybe I was just too close to be objective.

        1. His personality was fairly aloof….so that more or less hindered the fan connection
          Pf course during his timeframe…Johnny Bench was a lifetime Red….Bagwell a lifetime Astr…..then there was Yaz in Boston and Kirby as a Twin and Mariano as a Yankee..
          They were all well liked.

      2. Definitely not Schmidt. It took a few years before he was fully embraced by the fanbase.

        Chase Utley is the closest I can think of from a Phillies perspective, at least within the last 20+ years…

        1. But Chase became a Dodger…..a lifetime player on original team was the criteria.

    2. with the contract extension – that will be Mike Trout assuming that WS is not a criteria. Trout is probably the best MLB player of his time with no issues on and off the court and signed to be an Angels for life.

    3. The Late Great Kirby Puckett drafted by the Twins in the 1st round 3rd over all. Played his draft season at Rookie ball, the next at A ball skipped AA played 21 in AAA and was in the MLB for good at 24.

      12 MLB seasons with a career 318/360/837 OPS. Phenomenal player and man left this earth far too soon.

  24. Dan K, I could have sworn that he pitched separate innings before this year, but I can’t find it from his logs. I apologize, I really thought I saw what I saw last night on other occasions. It is not my first error, and I try to admit mistakes. I will leave it with SerAnthony has disappointed me this year, and I believe we are going to need BP reinforcements.

    1. It’s fine, everyone makes mistakes. All we can do is learn from them. I don’t think anyone would disagree with your disappointment in Dominguez this year regardless. The BP reinforcements still could come from within (getting back some of our injured pitchers, calling up some people from the minors), but I’m certain the bullpen won’t look the same on the last day of the season as it does now.

      We can at least be encouraged by the fact that we’re winning the division even with people under-performing. That bodes well for when (if) they come around.

    1. oopps he did have injuries or i believe he would have broken a lot of records.

      1. Could you imagine his final stats without those injuries? At one time I projected out some superstars stats that were injured or went to war. Might need to do it again for grins. Like Ted Williams losing years to the war.

  25. Franco has regressed back to being Franco. The more things change, the more they remain the same. Alex Bohm can’t arrive fast enough for this Philly phan.

    1. If its any solace Franky Lindor had his ups and downs in his age 18 season at A ball he managed pretty well after that….

      1. Romus without option, means if he isnt on big league roster we lose him?

        1. yes…..he can be kept on the 40, but why at this point, because he will need to make the 25 in April or …could be DFA after the season, since there are no 60 day ILs after the season is completed …if DFAed he becomes a minor league free agent.

        2. He will probably go on 60 day IL and a roster spot will be created for now. After the season he is either reinstated or will be released. He probably will be claimed if DFA at that time.

          1. Yes…he will be claimed I am sure… the Phillies will need to make a decision in their OF with Cornelius Randolph and Jhailyn Ortiz…..both are Rule 5 eligible this year, so things would be getting crowded on the OF portion of the 40…normally they carry 7 or 8 slots there.

      1. . Yes….still think Matt Klentak should have tried to move him earlier to a team that could have used him in their MLB OF…with Harper and Cutch…was not happening here in Philly.

    1. Yes, that’s bad news for both DC and the Phillies. Hope he has a full, quick recovery and finds an opportunity in 2020…

  26. Has Franco ever seen a 3-0 pitch he wouldn’t swing at? Why the green light when pinch hitters are coming up after him?

  27. I’m about to climb up onto my roof and jump. What’s the story with this bullpen and Kapler?!?!

    1. Wow, we only had 4 pitchers available in the bullpen? And DLS was the long man in case of extras? I don’t think I’ve seen a bullpen usage where 4 guys needed rest.

  28. What a bullpen meltdown. Can’t believe Nicasio was our only option tonight. That loss is on Gabe and his game management.

  29. I just checked on baseball reference, and including tonight, the Phillies have only blown 5 saves! By comparison, the Braves have blown 7 and the Cubs have blown 8!

    1. Make that 8 now for the Braves who suffered their own implosion to SF in the 9th earlier this morning. So we’re still 2.5 games up.

  30. With Cozens likely to go on the 60 day IL, leaving a spot open on the 40man roster, is it Hammer time?

    1. 8mark…I think they will want Hammer to get a few games under his belt with Triple A hitters and see how he does before they summons him up..

  31. In hindsight, which is always 20-20, Nicasio would have been better served to have bare handed that bleeder and back flipped it to JTR. It would’ve also helped if he hadn’t walked the lead off batter.

    1. He shouldn’t have even been in the game. Why have DLS on the team if you’re not going to use him. Nicosio 3 days in a row.

      1. Denny…my exact thoughts….DLS is rested and stretched from LHV….so he cold have gone 3 or even more innings if need be.
        Is it Gabe or Young having the most influence in making the pitching decisions?

        But …the funniest thing I have ever seen on a baseball field….when the kid Edgar Garcia shook Gabe;s hand when he came out to get the ball and make a change…that had me rolling on the floor.

        1. DLS should really have a lack of confidence now. In 1980 we handed the ball to Bystrom and Walk in critical games.

          1. Have to see if it affects him or not.
            The whole bullpen is rested for tonight…hopefully the Phillies Cole can go 7 or more.

  32. In light of the disappointing turnouts of FA relievers – Hunter, Robertson, Neshek (who in my opinion is stealing money by virtue of his chronic unavailability) – Klentak may be gun shy in signing Kimbrel despite the rumor to the contrary.

    1. What’s more concerning is that Salisbury says Neshek didn’t shut himself down the night before….so why couldn’t he pitch last night. This is becoming like the Sixers with injury reports. Umpteen beat reporters and we can’t get a straight answer?

      1. Curious, what do you think about this veteran Jedi mind trick … do you think it could be possible the bullpen is making a silent plea for the FO to sign Kimbrel? Neshek’s availability could be a sign to show the FO … hey, go sign this guy. Not saying for sure, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that is a way of forcing the Fo hands

        1. No, I don’t think Neshek was faking so that Kimbrel can come take someone’s job or the rest of them are sucking on purpose for the same reason.

          Put down the Kool-Aid..

  33. Gabe had no pitchers to go to . . . everyone is hurt or can’t throw multiple days, it’s unreal. When is the offense going to get touched on tho? It reminds me a lot of the 2010-2011 team that struggled in large stretches offensively. I thought I heard the other day that last years team at the same point in the season had better numbers across the board . . .

    1. Must have been a hostage situation in the bullpen. This is all part of the manager and GM being on the same page in figuring out who’s who on the roster. I’m not sure who was “more” wrong, but both Neshek and Kapler could be at fault.

  34. Someone is going to acquire a Closer before the deadline, and I want it to be us. It sure seems like 5 is low on the Blown Save chart for us. Maybe because they are so painful, it feels like more. But, we will need to do something. At this point, why would Kimbrel sign? He waits a week or so, and more teams are involved once Draft pick/slot $ goes away.

    1. matt13…..Monday morning Qbing…..but now if Klentak gave in a little more with prospects and just up the ante in the Segura/JPC trade…..he may have had also Diaz , and passed on either Alavrez or Pazos.

      1. Romus … the Mets gave up Jared Kelenic + Justin Dunn (and another piece or two, IIRC). The Phillies had no prospect to compete with Kelenic. Also, the Mariners were desperate to dump Robinson Cano’s contract.

        At this point, Klentak should make a large one year (pro-rated) offer to Kimbrel after the draft. I’m skeptical of Kimbrel after way he fumbled through the playoffs for Boston last year. However, they’d be tied to him for just five months, and would cost no prospects. The other options are a Ken Giles reunion (as matt mentions below), and Sean Doolittle (who would probably cost an arm [Howard or Medina] and a leg [Marchan or Maton] because he has a team friendly option for 2020 (plus the Nats would rather send him anywhere but here).

  35. You are exactly right Romus, So, if we were in on Diaz, an elite Closer, that seems to contradict Gabe’s “no Closer necessary” philosophy. I find it hard to believe that if we had a real Closer, Gabe wouldn’t use him that way. Anyway,can you explain to me why we are only showing 5 Blown Saves, but we lead the league in losing when we are winning in the 9th Inning or later, with 10. I just read an article in the Athletic that has us 3 such losses over the next worst team, the Diamondbacks. Maybe instead of Kimbrel, the right move is a trade for Ken Giles, our old buddy, who is also under contract for next year, and who is having a very good season.

    1. I would offer Doobie for Giles. No more. But first, let’s see how San Diego fares from now until the deadline. Kirby Yates has been lights out for the Friars.

      1. First the Blue Jays will laugh, then hang up the phone. Or hang up the phone and then laugh. Your pick.

        Yes, this was meant to be a snarky comment. We know that you don’t like Odubel, We get it. Personally, I would rather not see you dog Odubel every day, even on the days where he’s not starting no less.

        1. My trade proposal has nothing to do with my disenchantment with Odubel, whom I have scarcely ripped this year, but more so my estimation of Giles. I was on board with Herrera getting a clean slate in ’19 after a supposed refocus with his off season conditioning and work ethic. He apparently hasn’t rebounded from the past 2 years. And it’s clear his value isn’t rising. He’s got a relatively team friendly contract but makes too much money to be bench player. A rebuilding club may be able to help him find his way. The Phillies are in win-now mode (although it’s hard to tell by the way they’re handling the bullpen). Assuming Kingery will be getting the majority of reps in CF for now, I can’t see the point in holding on to a dysfunctional player.

          As for the snarkiness, knock yourself out if it makes you feel better.

          1. 8mark…unfortunately the May 2019 version of Doobie is not the May 2017 version of Doobie.
            His value has probably taken a hit for the worse.,… even with the age and contract benefits he has to offer.
            The Jays would probably want more…as in pitching also.

            1. Understood, Romus. But Giles’ contract is only through 2020. He’s a reliever, a good one, not great but is having a good season. Doubt he’ll ever be better than he’s been. Doobie has a relatively team friendly contract, still young with plenty of upside. I would add a hard throwing minor league reliever like Dohy.

            2. Yeah…that may be enough to sweeten the pot, and/ or another top 30 prospect pitcher with Dohy.

          2. First, you’re ripping Odubel when you’re throwing him into all kinds of trade scenarios. Because if he was performing, you would keep him right? But the fact is, a player who’s not performing does not have that much value, even with his team friendly contract. And have you seen his contract? If he doesn’t perform, he’ll be owed 21.2M for the next 2 years, including his buyouts. If he’s not performing, who wants to pay that?

            So Odubel will NOT be the center piece of any deal, but a throw in to sweeten the pot. And Ken Giles has 1.1 WAR as a reliever. If he was on the Phillies, he would be the best reliever by WAR. If you think you can trade Odubel for Giles, you’re nuts. If Giles continues to perform and gets up to 1.5 at the trade deadline, he’ll fetch something better than an underperforming Odubel.

            Odubel is going nowhere, you need to come to terms with that.

    2. matt13…have no clue why that can be….seems not to make sense..
      Just know for an official save criteria…..a reliever comes in with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning; or. irregardless of the score, with the potential tying run either on base, at bat, or on deck; or. something that rarely ever happens anymore ….he come sin and pitches for at least three innings.

  36. That stat was since the start of last season, I misread it. My apologies, but we still need a Closer.

    1. ok…..I am willing to bet most of those situations were last August and September when they went 17-34.

  37. As far as Gabe not using a closer – I would think if the team had a legitimate shut down closer of notoriety he would use him. Just like Gabe has stopped shuffling the lineup and having players play all over the place I think he relies on “known quantities” and with a recognizable closer he would use him rather than the parade we see. Imagine if Robertson had not gotten injured —- wouldn’t it be likely he would have been the closer ? We won’t know, but my bet is – Kapler would have gone to him. Using Nicasio last night told me there were some sort of issues with arms, exhaustion, or contrariness ??? No way he would have used him 3 days in a row without some “reason” despite Nicasio being effective lately.

  38. Further – I agree with Hinkie above – no way the Phillies could have gotten Diaz from Seattle compared to what the Mets offered Seattle. The question might be – would you have rather traded Sixto Sanchez to Miami for JT Realmuto ? or included him in a package for Diaz ? My assessment is JT Realmuto is still the much better addition to the team and is irreplaceable – a closer will somehow be found. Catchers llke JTR are like diamonds.

    1. The value of either Medina or Howard, plus Williams would have made the difference…..but taking on Robby Cano’s contract probably was the killer, since the Phillies wanted to unload Santana’s contract……which if Matt had the foresight, he could have sent him to the Indians who wanted him back anyway as part of a three way deal in that trade..

    1. Somewhat disillusioned in how they graded out the two Reading lefties…Falter and Parkinson:
      “Don’t see the carry tool for regular role on ML staff. Deception and pitchability make him a solid upper-level depth piece w/ chance for cups of coffee in situational relief or mopup role.”

      1. Parkinson:
        “Finesse LHP, control and pitchability are best attributes that give him a chance at the big leagues. Don’t see enough stuff for regular ML role; likely upper-level depth w/ chance for cups of coffee in mopup or situational role”

      2. I often feel that people on this blog don’t realize how hard it is to be a MLB regular. the bar is so high. the stuff that plays in the minors often won’t at the mlb level. the gap between AAA and MLB success is the largest gap of any in baseball.

      3. Those reports sound about right to me. Particularly for Falter – we’ve known what he is for awhile now. If you were disillusioned by those reports, you likely were far too optimistic about Falter and Parkinson.

  39. Good intel, v1. I’m optimistic about Moniak (despite an abysmal BB rate). Certainly swinging it better in May.

  40. I posted this on the daily thread, should be here I think

    Moniak’s walk rate is concerning.

    That said, he’s had a much better May than April. Here is a complete list of the hitters in the Eastern League (min: 100 Plate Appearances) who have a wRC+ higher than Moniak in 2019 (his is 106) and who are also younger than him:

    Yes, that’s right, no one. If you expand it from the Eastern League to include all AA players in all leagues, this is the list:

    Dylan Carlson (Cardinals org)
    Cristian Pache (Braves org)
    Drew Waters (Braves org)

    I am hopeful that Moniak will continue to adjust to AA, and by the end of the season will have his K rate in the low 20s (currently 25.6%) and ideally increase his BB rate. But he is very young for AA. If he continues to improve, this will be a successful year for him.

    1. That list is misleading. Being young for a level is one thing. But being a month or two younger than others is meaningless. A year or two younger, yes. That is important. But less than that is not an excuse. So take another look at that list with that filter. Different story.

  41. Aren’t you glad Gabe saved all 4 of his best relievers for tonight’s game instead of going for the W last night with a lead into the 9th inning?

  42. With the stuff that Cole Irvin has, we shouldn’t be surprised when he gets batted around by a really good hitting team. He really has to be on point with his command against a team like that. He’s 25, so maybe he can add 1-2 MPH to his fastball as he ages. But at this point, he’s a 4/5 pitcher.

  43. IMO Cole Irvin is not a major league caliber pitcher. He is a great story. And seems like a wonderful person. And I am happy for him getting a cup of coffee. But he does not belong on the staff of a team trying to go to the playoffs.

    Any pitcher who sits high 80s needs at least one plus breaking pitch. But probably two. Eickhoff is having some success this year because his curve and slider are really good. But if you throw your FB in the 80s, mlb hitters are going to spit on those pitches and eventually turn in a FB. Cole has zero plus pitches. He is a AAAA player. Nice person though.

    1. As a soft tossing lefty…he has to try to get hold of the Keuchel/Moyer/Glavine/Buerhle magic dust and sprinkle it on his pitches.
      Or else he will just be clinging by a thread in the majors.

      1. I think it’s pretty much what you want to see now rather than later with Irvin. The kid competes and he’s was pretty darn good through 5.

        I don’t know exactly what he throws but if he could improve his CU or get a 2 seam with some arm side run he could stay in a rotation. That said I don’t care how much FB you have you can’t throw it down the middle in the MLB

        1. Like I have posted in the past, Irvin 4 or 5, Pivetta or VV for 4 or 5 and maybe a closer. Bases loaded in bottom of the 5th, bring in P or VV for RH Almora.

          Seems to be piggybacking in the minors or quick hooks so the pitchers are now groomed for it.

          1. You can’t do this. Essentially, you’re turning it into a 6 man rotation because you’re saving P or VV to help out Irvin or somebody else. And then once P or VV goes 2-4 innings, they can’t be used in consecutive days. They probably will need 2 days rest, depending on how they go.

            The funny thing is, the Cubs are using Tyler Chatwood in the way that you’re suggesting. But Chatwood is 29 with a lot of MLB experience. Not sure any pitcher can do what he is doing.

        2. “darn good through 5” is THE point with pitchers without velocity.

          it is impossible for any pitcher to not make mistakes. it is an absolute certainty that they will miss location and leave balls over the plate. If you throw 95+ you have a chance of getting away with it. If you throw 89, it ends up 475 feet from home.

          That is THE point. he can get away with it for a lot of outs, because hitting is hard. but ultimately, it catches up.

    2. I haven’t seen enough of Irvin, but from the sounds of it, he is behind Eickhoff. He seems like an intelligent kid, who knows a lot of about being a “pitcher”, or at the least can communicate it better than most.

      Eickhoff to me is a mlb pitcher, even with the 80s fb. He has 2 + (curve & slider)pitches that he can control well enough most outings, and can really keep hitters off balance/guessing We’ve seen him do it already. The last piece to the puzzle I see is him refining his changeup. Word is he is working on it. That can add some projection to his below avg mph fb. If he can regain the tick or two he sat at be in 2016 (92mph), I’d expect him to have a really good year for a bottom of the rotation guy.

      He’s not a cy young contender but he cAn be an above avg 4th or 5th starter. If he can regain some mph on his fb, he will surprise imho. For now, he is a solid role player, he should stick or be paired with 4 inning Vinny when he returns

      1. I will say this until i die. RIGHT HANDERS WITH 89 MPH HARDLY WIN, they have to be perfect, They dont have a guy guessing cause he knows if he lays on a breaking ball, and gets a fastball its not going to be that good to fool him. omg you see, if this guy get tired bang hanger, homerun. i think he could be a 6th inning guy or long relief in blowout. but even as a five he doesnt throw hard enough.

        1. Rocco, I can agree with most of those points, but Eickhoff is more the exception than the rule. Will See how it plays out. My feel is that Eickhoff can be on the right side of ledger. He has a 1.13 whip, had a 1.16 in 197 innings in 2016. His VV/so ratio are there, and opponents are hitting .216 off him so far. Yeah it helps to throw harder, and I wish he did, all that, imo he can still be an effective mlb pitcher. He’s not going to give you 6 straight wins, but with this offense and pitching out of the 4/5 spot, he should go 4-2 or 3-3 for some stretches. That’s pretty good for a 4-5. He’s cheap and controllable

  44. The MLB team needs a few pieces, or upgrades, to me what it needs most is for Pivetta to realize his ceiling. He was ear marked as the #2 starter coming into the year by most.

    Offensively, when the team is firing on all cylinders they can do whatever heavy analytic approach they want to do, the bats will cover up a lot of mistakes. When they are struggling, I’d like to see some … call me crazy… small ball play. It still has a place in the game, and can’t wait for it to surface again. Getting a runner to 3rd changes how a pitcher pitches vs a runner on 2nd or 1st, Especially if he has a pitch that bounces in the dirt, weather, mental toughness of pitcher, etc. I love analytics but they are not as “dynamic” as they need to be for each situation.

      1. I really though in this road trip we would win 2 games , if we had a bullpen we would have, now it looks like a 1-6 road trip,

        1. Ahh Lester this afternoon……has never lost to the Phillies in 8/9 starts….chalk up another win for the lefty……though the odds of probability may favor the Phillies

          1. This lineup has greatly changed so the club’s history vs Lester isn’t as relevant this time. HOWEVER, if they pile up baserunners but leave men on like last night, we have problems. Good teams with good veteran pitchers have a knack for minimizing damage.

  45. The manager has really cost them several games already less than 1/3 of the way into the season. He talked all last year about not using a bullpen conventionally, but rather use your best guys in high leverage situations. That would beg the question – why was Cole Irvin pitching last night in that spot with the bases loaded and two outs? I understand the old school thinking of it’s a tie game, get him thru 5 innings so he has a chance to win, etc, but who wouldn’t have wanted to see Sir Anthony or Neshek in that spot for a batter rather than a tiring rookie LH starting pitcher, on the road, vs a first place team, with the wind blowing out….

    This builds off of the loss the night before when 4 pitchers were unavailable. The reason they were unavailable is because Gabe overuses them. He talks about it like it’s because he’s trying to win those other games. Well there has to be some nuance to that – it’s not either we’re trying to win or we’re not. There are varying degrees. As an example, when your bullpen is very well rested, it might be feasible in the 8th inning of a one run game to use 3 pitchers, a RHP vs Bryant, and then bring in a LHP to face Rizzo, and go back to a RHP for Contreras, as an example. But if you’ve been using your pen regularly or more, maybe you try to get through that 8th inning with a RHP facing two out of three, and you try to pitch carefully to the LH.

    I just don’t believe he has the baseball intellect to manage a bullpen in the big picture beyond just one game. There are countless examples of where this has happened both last year and this year.

    1. Ricky Bo and Tommy Greene said last night before the game…they have never experienced a bullpen during a game night with four guys unavailable like they saw on Tuesday night’s game….poor planning.

    2. Voice – The manager must play the cards that he is dealt. If you feel the need to blame somebody, blame Klentak.

      1. It is the GM’s fault that 4 pitchers are unavailable? It’s the GM’s fault that Gabe stuck with Irvin in that spot last night? Hardly. This GM has done a very, very fine job putting this team in a much better place this year and deserves a mountain of credit. I’m very sure he selected the wrong manager but hopefully at some point he will leverage the political capital he has accumulated and reverse his biggest mistake. He is the right GM going forward and hope he is here a long time. The inability to manage the bullpen is squarely on the manager.

        1. “The inability to manage the bullpen is squarely on the manager.”…..the pitching coach (Chris Young) and the bullpen coach (Jim Gott) have a pretty large voice in the matter also…..and the accountability rest on Kapler as the final decision.

  46. OK, v1, if we expand it to anyone younger than Moniak or no more than 12 months older than him, here is the list of all AA players who have a wRC+ better than his current 109 (the list expands from 3 to 11):

    Gavin Lux
    Omar Estevez
    Jesus Sanchez
    Josh Lowe
    Colton Welker
    Brandon Marsh
    Taylor Trammell
    Jazz Chisolm
    Dylan Carlson
    Cristian Pache
    Drew Waters

    Of course, if we expand it to no more than 24 months older than him, the list would expand even further. Etc.

    The point is: Moniak is really really young for AA. Putting up a 109 wRC+ (that is, 9% better than league average) while being so young is a good sign. Is it reasonable to think he might end up at a wRC+ of 120 by the end of the year? K rate around 21-22%. BB rate north of 5%? If so, at his age that would be a very successful year. It would mean he’d be in AAA next year for his age 22 season.

    For comparison purposes, last year Randolph (who was the same age last year as Moniak is this year) put up a wRC+ of 85, or 15% worse than league average.

    Last item: for all the hand-wringing about the Reading OF, they currently have wRC+ of 136 (Haseley), 114 (Randolph), and 109 (Moniak). Haseley’s numbers are actually pretty darn good: 13% BB rate, 15.6% K rate, .191 ISO rate.

    1. comparing a prospect to other prospects who performed worse than him is not a strong argument. Randolph is not a major leaguer. so his wRC+ at same age is not relevant. and having a list of people similar age that have a wRC+ greater than his is also not a good argument. Gavin Lux’s is 151. That is a massive difference.

  47. Cole Irvin just got optioned down which I had suspected would happen after the game. So either DLS or VV gets the start on Tuesday against the Cardinals at home.

      1. I think if Pivetta wasn’t walking almost 5 guys per 9, he would get the call.

        If VV’s friday bullpen session goes well, I suspect he’ll get the call.

        1. Really why? Irvin has one bad outing and gone, DLS isn’t used and Pivetta isn’t called up. So building confidence for later in year?

          1. He had one good outing against a lesser lineup. His 2nd time out was a mixed bag. Last night the trend downward continued. They saw enough. Quite frankly, although I campaigned for Irvin, it’s obvious he isn’t much more than a great story/AAAA arm who gets to say he pitched in the Show. Hats off!

          2. You don’t need a new starter until Tuesday. So bring up a reliever to help in the bullpen. Once Tuesday comes around, another transaction will happen.

          1. rocco….hang in there. Some things just go in cycles.
            Hopefully Nola rights the ship today.

  48. Glad to see they’ve finally upgraded the 2b position for today’s game. And before all the CeHe supporters get excited. I am kidding.

    Actually not sure why Odubel is playing against Lester and Kingery isn’t in CF again..

    1. Unless you want Odubel to strictly bat against RH pitchers, you need to put him in there. He already sat for 2 days.

      And as a note, Kingery is already -0.2 dWar in 18 games.

      1. Personally, I’d would option Doobie to LHV for a 4/6 week recharging.
        if the Ozuna and Kolten Wong’s of the world could taste the minors a few years ago when they struggled….Doobie can also get a little nutritional humble pie to get him back on track
        Quinn is currently sitting on the bench there in Chicago so he is close to coming back in a reserve OF role.

      2. Sorry Guru but I put little stock in defensive measures, including dWar. There is too my subjectivity into how defensive plays are being scored but I don’t doubt that Kingery is below average in CF but so is Odubel so the defensive loss is minimal.

        As for Odubel strictly batting vs. RH pitchers, That is exactly what I would do until he starts hitting RHP and then adjust accordingly…

      3. That’s because he belongs at 2b only. If Descalso is the best the Cubs have at 2b, I have just the guy for them….

        Just (half) kidding.

  49. When was the last time the Phillies had a batting champ? (Yeah I know that stat is SO old school) Segura is a flat out hit machine!

    1. Bobby Abreu hit .335 in 1999. In that year, Larry Walker hit an unbelievable .379. Welcome to the Coors Field effect.

  50. Great! Now Gabe is overmanaging the staff, removes his ace with 91 pitches, and what? Use all the unavailable relievers from Tuesday night? So they won’t be available for Milwaukee? And all with a 5-run lead. Are you kidding me?!?!

    1. Gabe is the new Fredi Gonzalez. Adam Morgan is on track for 74+ appearances!

    2. If this team continues to win it will be in spite of Gabe. I don’t believe he has a clue when it comes to managing the relief Corp.

  51. Well, if we get Neris in the game all the restee’s will have gotten work today.

  52. 7-0 lead for Nola, but, unfortunately, he did not step up like an Ace. We can argue Pitch count, but he should have been able to go further, and a BB to lead off hitter, up 7-0, violates about 12 unwritten baseball rules. We wanted Neshek, well he was well rested! Maybe he should pitch when he is a little sore, because with all his rest, he pitched like crap today.

    1. Sherzer and deGrom would have been left in that situation even if they didn’t have their A-game. Kapler flat out over managed here. Period. Nobody is paying to watch him recreate the game.

      1. This has to be a joke. There is no doubt in my mind that if he left Nola in and they scored you’d be calling for his head.

        1. No Dan, I certainly would not. If Nola is the ace he has to be trusted with a 5 run lead and under 100 pitches.

          Those are the decisions that burn out a bullpen

        2. What game are YOU watching, DanK? And no, I just explained why Nola should have been given the rest of the 6th.

      1. Caught the end of the game, wasn’t worried, not with that shadow. I would like to see some analytics on that

  53. Relief Corp. 3 2/3 innings, 7 hits, 4 walks, 4 runs. Ugly for a well rested group. Considering the way the Cubs threw the ball around we were very fortunate to escape with the “W”.

  54. I just got finished reading a great article by Matt Gelb on Nick Williams back to AAA. I know you got 72 hours to report, but finding out he went to Texas instead of where they were playing, and Boras had to get involved in getting his butt back at AAA, was interesting.

    There was a point in the article where Williams and McCutchen were speaking and pulling up stats – in his limited spots 65 AB’s in both years – was the same. Williams said it bothered him as it “was still insanely early” and the way I interpreted, not enough AB’s at MLB level. So is 130 AB’s enough to gauge a player of his caliber?

    Again, Gelb the writer for clearly points you have two Ballers in his position, but you have to make the best of situation, which I believe Williams didn’t exactly embrace. It’s always tough not being in the dugout and what he was told to work on.

    1. I don’t doubt that Williams thinks he’s an everyday player but He’s not on this team.

      His best chance is to go to AAA and prove he is and become a trade candidate. Hopefully he comes to understand that quickly.

  55. Jim Peyton, I just read an article about the actor Dwyer Brown from Field of Dreams fame. He threw out the first pitch on May 17th at the Thresher game. If you were there, how was it?

  56. I am disappointed in Nola’s performance. Neshek I already mentioned, just awful. I thought, though, that there were 3 or 4 called Balls that were strikes to start the 9th inning. I give Neris credit for getting through it.Way too many BBs, in total, by all of our pitchers.

  57. The baseball Gods got to Neshek today. Go pitch you big baby.

    And how about Segura? If he isn’t the starting SS in the All Stat game something is wrong. Prior to the start of the year I said he would be our MVP, doing a lot of everything but damn I didn’t realize how good he actually is. Fun to watch. Him and JT are just both professional hitters and pure baseball players.

    1. Romus The wises of wises men. Could you explain to me how Aaron Nola is undefeated and Hector is 8for8 in saves, I need to find the answer

      1. rocco…does happen.
        Remember, 6/7 years ago, the year Hamels was pitching lights out and Phillies were getting him on average one run per game and his record was barely .500.

        1. If klentak is afraid of losing a draft pick to sign Kimbrel, then he is a idiot, They draft so bad, what is the difference and sign him today and that is two weeks earlier we have him. While is waiting to keep a second round choice our bullpen is killing us.

          1. There is a little more than the pick…..also the money from the 91st (approx $650K) slot and also international money.

            1. And they can wait 2 weeks and not lose either.

              Also, those expecting Kimbrel to cure all that ails the pen will find themselves complaining about them wasting money and picks on Kimbrel when he pitches to the form he showed for long stretches in 2018.

              It should be noted that the one team that doesn’t have the threat of losing picks or international money, the Red Sox, have made zero efforts to resign the guy.

          2. Trade market is the way to go for both a reliever and a SP. Kimbrel gives me the yips. Keuchel would be no more than a lefty Arrieta. Lots of baserunners and heart attacks.

            1. Problem with a San Franciso trade, imo is they have catchers and i think any deal we make would be Williams. Gullon and a pitcher. We better do something cause Atlanta just called up another young stud 5 homeruns already.

            1. This team losing draft picks isn’t a big deal, with how poorly they draft

  58. At what point do they DFA Knapp and bring up Gruillon? Gruillon won’t hit .370 or whatever he is at LV, but at this point Knapp is a no defense/no offense catcher. I’m guessing they’d be nervous about Knapp getting claimed and having no 3rd catcher but my word he’s been horrible. If needed bring up a Bossart or some defensive catcher if needed as a 3rd bc man, Knapp is so bad on offense and defense

    1. I believe knapp still has option years so you wouldn’t have to DFA him. You could DFA someone else to open up a 40 spot for Gruillon.

  59. Forrest I don’t get bringing up Gruillon, he will only catch one a week if that. Kape had to fight with Realmuto to give him a day off this week,

    1. What’s Gruillon’s upside though? I get development and such, but we’re not really expecting Grullon to be the everyday guy at any point so why not bring him up? Maybe with a not horrible backup catcher option Kapler will give JT another day off or so . . .
      The Phillies with Realmuto are like the Sixers with Embiid. Take them out for any period of time and it goes to crap quickly.

      1. Forrest why do you say we dont expect him to be everyday guy, He is a excellent catcher who hits

      2. A good team that is vying for a championship can get by with a Knapp as a backup catcher. Once a week or less on average. He is not the problem.

      3. Last 5 World Series winners had the following back up catchers:

        2018 Red Sox Swihart .229 in 82 games

        2017 Astros Juan Cedeno .231 in 22 games, also had Gattis but he played DH, OF and 1B

        2016 Cubs David Ross .229 in 67 games

        2015 KC Drew Butera .198 in 45 games

        2014 SF Hector Sanchez .196 in 66 games

        Backup catcher is not what we should be concerned with unless we have a lousy starter.

        1. Exactly…back-up catcher concerns!
          I rather keep Knapp for this season, then see what happens with Grullon next year…plus, he knows the pitchers on the staff and especially him and Eflin have had some good fortune working together.

  60. I imagine that the Phillies will start Pivetta against SL Tuesday on 7 days of rest. VV has been inactive for quite awhile so he may be used as the long man. Or they can tell VV to go out and throw his usual 4-5 innings.

    I know this should be on the other thread, but can someone tell me what’s up with Nick Fanti? Speaking/writing of a Nick, it was nice to see Williams go 2-5 in his first appearance at LHV. I always liked the kid and his ability to hit the ball really hard.

      1. We could skip a starter, but at this point, I would rather give the starters an extra day of rest because I think they need it.

  61. Does anyone remember when Shane Robinson and Lane Adams’s opt out days are? I’m thinking at least one of them is June 1st. I’m guessing maybe one of them opts out and then we see some promotions. I think they promote Haseley around that time. He’s up around .260 but has been doing a lot better. Moniak stays in Reading the whole year.
    Then I think they look to promote Vierling as well. We’ll see how many opt outs they have. Could get interesting. I think they try to get Bohm to AA and move Listi or Hall up to play 1b

  62. I personally am optimistic after the cubs series. a four game series in Wrigley when the cubs had the second best record in the NL is as tough as it gets and we essentially outplayed them in 3 of the games ( won 2) in series when we got no homers from harper or Hoskins
    we are 6-5 in this brutal stretch of games. not bad
    another tough series again brewers ( can we just walk braun everytime for gods sake)
    if we finish this run of games around 575-580 winning percent for the season, we’re in good shape

    1. When it comes to playing these better teams, our bats cannot go into these collective intermittent funks. The pitching is what it is. The opposing pitchers can’t be made to look like Greg Maddux.

  63. Nats are 10 games out, only 1.5 games ahead of cellar dwelling Fish, and even in the loss column. They play each other in DC this weekend. In games which Scherzer (3.41 ERA, which still isn’t bad though not Mad Max-ish) has started, they are 2-9. The only thing that makes me happier that WAS is dropping like a rock is the Phillies in first place.

    1. Nats could be sellers in 30 days if they do not turn it around….Sean ‘Dr’ Doolittle comes to mind.

      1. I don’t want to say never, but the odds of Doolittle or even Rendon getting traded to the Phillies have to be under 20%.

    1. Kimbrel 2018:
      Games 45…Saves -33…Blown Saves-5…save %-89.4%
      He is not lights out like he use to be.

      1. Better than what we have, Romus look at Atlanta now with 3 studs under 23 along with freeman. and they have a ton of young arms. We could maybe win this year this 5 team division. I dont think we can be long term without pitching.

    1. Matt Klentak does ot do this…..but I think he has an option….if so…then I’d send him down for awhile to get his head, confidence, and swing together.

    1. I read the MLB Feinsand piece the other day (from which Giglio builds his article). It’s only mentioned as one among several possibilities listed. Even Giglio said it was outside the box. This is vintage Joe Giglio “pie-in-the-sky” reporting. I enjoy listening to him but man, he’s way off a lot. Especially on the pregame radio show when he says “this is the type of pitcher (meaning that night’s opposing SP) the Phillies should be able to hit”. Kiss of death.

    2. Would so love to get Rendon, wonder what the cost would be. Would be a huge get at 3B.

        1. The Phillies need to be really careful – you can’t have a team full of top dollar free agents. You need to balance new with old talent and always have a plentiful supply of young, cheap players. If you think Alex Bohm has a chance to be a really good regular you don’t just flip him for a rental. Sorry, I probably don’t include him or Spencer in any such trade.

          1. This is so true. Bohm is really the one position player prospect who appears likely to give above average production at a rookie contract. (Hopefully one or more of Moniak/Haseley/Muzziotti continues to develop and gives another option when McCutchen is up). He has to be a big factor in the club’s plans to stay below the luxury tax.

          2. yes, i absolutely love Rendon and would take him in a heartbeat, but I’m going starter/reliever way before i even think about a position player, and any position player considered should be a cheap rental.

  64. Matt Kemp signed with the Mets. What’s with the AL club showing no interest in a guy built to be an AL player. I wonder if this affects Altherr at all.

    1. I think Altherr is there until McNeil comes off the IL…and then Cano is due off also.

      1. …and also Conforto and Nimmo……half their position starters are on the IL it looks.

  65. Top of the 1st- Eickhoff pitches well enough to win this game – 3 runs or less over 6-7innings. He is due can mil.

      1. Haven’t seen since the first but looks like I’m el wrongo. I’ll take the 91mph though. Keep rolling Eick out there. Brewers have legit offense

  66. Eickhoff just doesn’t have enough fastball to make mistakes. The HR to Arcia was just a FB right down the middle. He needs a changeup, or he needs to start throwing his slider more.

    1. ty at least you see it, without a fastball to have hitter off balance, he needs to be perfect, changeup wont help. hitter know he cant blow it by them so they can lay on off speed stuff. and still hit 88 mph pitch

      1. Guru/Rocco-

        I’m not going to defend eichhoff all day , but he has it. He can be an above avg mlb starter which is more than enough for a 4/5th starter. Teams don’t need 4 aces m, though it is nice. In 30 innings, he posted a 1.80 era against mlb hitters. He went 8 innings shutout innings against the cardinals lineup, a legit lineup. Brewers have the best lineup our pitchers have faced so far, imo. Pretty high bar that eat up just about any of our #4/5 guys, as they should.
        What’s encouraging is that he is gaining speed on his fastball. He popper 91,90 multiple times. He’s handled Yelich pretty good in his career, even with an 88mph fb, which Yelich whiffed on. Yup Yelich took him deep but Eickhoff has generally handled the mvp in his career

        He is a #5. VV or Pivetta in thr pen, pick up a starter through trade or Fa. Come playoff time, Eickhoff comes out of the pen, since the #5 spot is not needed in playoffs

        1. Eickhoff would seem to be a dependable back-end guy (4 or 5) during the regular season. Playoff time he is not a top three in the rotation to start play-off games.
          One thing the Phillies have …are plenty of arms to compete for the 4th or 5th spot.

          1. Romus very very surprise that a guy who knows this sport, would think Eichoff who gives up a ton of homeruns is a 4 0r 5. I see him as maybe a mop up guy or 6 inning tops.

            1. rocco….check out other teams 5th rotation arms….and look what their HR/9 is …then compare it to the other one or two TOR(s) on that team.
              Most all are >1.5/9….Eickhoff is sitting at 1.5/9 before last night’s game.

        2. I wouldn’t call Eickhoff an above average starter. An above average starter is a #3 pitcher or higher. Anything less than a #3 pitcher is pretty much replaceable if something better comes along. That said, I would keep Eickhoff as a starter as a #4/5 starter. But he’s going to have some real bad days.

    1. Dang…the Hammer could be in Philly sooner than August as i had thought, if the relievers keep going down..

  67. At times, I’ve been one of Kapler’s worst critics. I will admit that he’s improved greatly over last year. The Phillies have been pretty lucky with injuries to the regular 8 hitters, but when he had to fill in, Kapler has done an effective job.
    The pitching staff has been a different story, and I don’t know whether to give credit to Kapler or Chris Young. After Nola, Arrieta, and Eflin, the Phillies have squeezed an 8-6 record out of Velasquez, Eickhoff, Irvin, and Pivetta. In the bullpen Phillies relievers have compiled a 8-3 record with 15 saves. In short, Kapler/Young have gotten the most out of their pitchers (it doesn’t hurt to have a batting order that’s averaging 5 runs per game).
    We all have opinions on who the Phillies should sign, or trade for, but Klentak waits. Meanwhile, the team keeps on winning. We have to be aware that Klentak is probably betting his job on this years team making the playoffs. With each game klentak is hoping that his starters can give the team a chance to win, and that his make-shift bullpen will not implode.

  68. “…..Klentak is probably betting his job on this years team making the playoffs….”
    very true…contract is up in 17 months….so he may be looking at an extension offer sometime between, after this season and prior to the next season’s beginning.

  69. So what is happening with Nick Williams in LHV? He was put on the inactive list. Is he demanding a trade?

      1. From today’s update:

        5/24/2019 – Lehigh Valley placed RF Nick Williams on the temporarily inactive list

        1. Denny…well we know his fiancée already graduated! 🙂
          Yeah….probably looking to be traded.

  70. Definitely appears the Phillies are moving on from young guys they’ve hung around with for years — Altherr gone, Nick Williams in AAA, Odubel on the bench and rumors of trading for Rendon suggest it’s time for Franco to join the others. Maybe add VV, too, in a way if he sticks in the bullpen.

    And who can blame them? They’ve been patient enough and the new vets — Segura, Cutch, Realmuto — are showing what accomplished ballplayers can do.

    Interestingly, the one guy still seemingly safe is the one who’s gotten so little respect over the years — Hernandez.

  71. Rocco, Rom… ya I am not a big doobie fan. And now we get to play Altherr. Like I said before when someone freaked on me, I hope Altherr dies not come back to haunt us. Maybe his 107 game sample in 17 was a fluke but…..

    1. Not a big stats guy so can’t find back a little further but Doobie is 1 for 23 since May 15

      1. Rem…..sad to see how it all went down with him over the last year and a half.
        A change of scenery probably is in order.
        Phillies, will however, have to sell low if they do intend on moving on without him.

  72. Over the past 365 days, there are, I believe, 134 Major League hitters who have 500 or more ABs. Doobie’s OBP is #133. A little more than a slump. I had hoped Roman Quinn would be pushing him, but I have given up on that fantasy, We are going to need significantly better production from the #7 and 8 spots in the lineup.

    1. Odubel is what he is: a streaky hitter. He’s frustrating, but I can’t see him being dealt (at least not now). He’s still their best defensive CFer and his contract (6 million AAV) ain’t nothing. I just don’t see Klentak trading low on him. Give him a week or two, and Odubel will probably be hot again.

      1. I just do not think Kapler has the patience anymore to wait for him….2/3 years ago when the team was fighting to stay out of the basement it was different.
        Whether Klentak moves him now, or two months from now, or in the off-season…..he will have to sell low since every GM has seen the decline every year since his rookie season.
        OPS+ went from his highest in 2015 @111….down sloped to now at 62.
        El Torito has turned into El Cordero.

      2. Ya I agree with some of the other comments along with what I said when they cut Altherr. I have heard from so many players and people in the biz. Some guys are not good bench or platoon guys. They need regular at bats to work there way out of slumps. Not sure Klentak or Kapler has the patience for Doobie. They are in win now mode.

  73. Regarding Odubel, there is hope with our CF prospects:

    Moniak in May: .318/.348/.494; 16.9% K rate; 4.5% BB rate; .310 BABIP
    Haseley in May: .338/.420/.563; 13.6% K rate; 12.3% BB rate; .299 BABIP

    It’s only three-and-a-half weeks, but those are elite numbers for Haseley, and, given his age, pretty darn impressive numbers for Moniak. And in neither case is it BABIP driven.

    1. Sorry, Haseley’s BABIP in May is .357, and Moniak is .377 (baseball Reference doesn’t make it easy to see), so somewhat BABIP driven, but not crazy, like .450-type BABIP

      1. It’s worth noting BABIP differs for hitters than pitchers. Especially in the minors. This could be their true skill, or even below it (more likely for Haseley, obviously).

        Looks like Moniak’s BABIP for his career settles in around the .330 range, so he probably regresses a bit. But if he’s making harder contact that previously, maybe not. Haseley looks like he’s closer to .320, but with the same caveat. We’ll see, I guess.

        1. That’s still a pretty high babip. In general, the guys who can sustain higher babip in their careers are those who have the speed to beat out infield hits. Cesar’s career babip is .343, Rhys is .273.

          1. In general, but not always. Goldschmidt’s is .355, Votto’s .352, J.D. Martinez’s .347, Cabrera’s .345.

            High BABIP for hitters comes from speed, hitting the ball hard often, or a combination of the two.

            It’s also worth noting that both Haseley and Moniak have above-average speed, and that BABIPs in the minors tend to be higher than the majors due to worse pitching and defense.

            1. Note that you’re talking about all-star/future HOF players. Those guys have high babip for a reason. Comparing Moniak and Haseley to those guys is a bit premature.

            2. To demonstrate that last point, in AA 114 players with 100+ PAs had a BABIP of .350 or higher last year.

              In the majors with the same cutoff, there were 47.

              Again, not saying there won’t be regression. But it’s possible this is purely progress and not luck.

          2. (Replying to this comment because the next one is too far nested to reply)

            That’s still major league vs major league. These two aren’t exactly hitting against the Scherzers and deGroms of the world right now.

            Aaron Judge is at .356, Tommy Pham .351, Chris Johnson .353, Miguel Sano .348, David Freese .343.

            The point is simply that a player’s BABIP can be high without it being lucky. It’s important to look at the batted ball profile. Hitters aren’t like pitchers where they tend to stabilize at the same place. Hitters have much more control over their BABIP.

  74. MM is walking more, and hitting very well. I am not trying to steal v1’s thunder, but Mickey needs to get his BB rate up. I am very pleases with what he has done this Month.

  75. I saw someone say there are rumors that they want to trade for Rendon?! Link? Haven’t heard that, I would think it would deplete the rest of the system even as a rental.

    As far as Eickhoff goes, he just isn’t that good . . . He’s a 5th/AAAA who can show out in a start when EVERYTHING is on. If he missing with his fastball he’s gonna get hit, if he can’t throw his CB he’s gonna get hit, if his slider is flat he’s gonna get hit. He needs to be perfect in order to do well . . . That def doesn’t bode well for him.

    With Kimbrel, if I remember correctly his rough patches came towards the end of the year, maybe he was tired? You have to remember if we sign him (who knows), he won’t be throwing a full season and has had plenty of rest. I actually think he would be lights out from end of June – late Oct. Once the draft comes there will be more teams in on him tho, could still get expensive.

    1. That has been me pointing out Kimbrel’s struggles in the playoffs last year. Agree that it could be the rigors of a long season. Just don’t know for sure.
      That said … I’m in favor of offering him a large, pro-rated one year offer after the draft ends (July 5th). It would only cost the club money (no prospects), and would only tie them to Kimbrel for five months.
      And I do believe Kimbrel will settle for a one year deal.

      1. And he has the luxury in the market place with other clubs , since he will no longer have a QO placed upon him.
        …June 5th draft ends..

  76. Klentak better hope the rest of the bullpen can come to the rescue.
    Maybe Vinny will be the spark for them
    Looks like Robertson, Hunter and Neshek will all be out for a long while now.

  77. JD Hammer could also be a spark, with Vinny out of the pen…a one-two punch.

    1. A scouting report on Hammer from the pre-2018 season…Jay Floyd.
      “Hammer features a fastball that usually sits around 96 MPH and can touch higher. He also offers a solid breaking pitch, a slider/curve hybrid with nice movement, and can pound the strike zone. Primarily a third baseman and shortstop in high school, Hammer didn’t take the mound until he was in junior college. The transition clearly worked well, as he’s gotten pretty far as a hurler and couldn’t muster much offense even at the JuCo level.”

      1. Hammer should be available tonight. He also hasn’t pitched since Wednesday.

  78. Romus remember an’t Touch This
    MC Hammer
    You can’t touch this
    You can’t touch this
    You can’t touch this (oh-oh oh oh oh-oh-oh)
    You can’t touch this (oh-oh oh oh oh-oh-oh)
    My-my-my-my music makes me so hard makes me say oh my Lord
    Thank you for blessing me with a mind to rhyme and two hype feet
    That’s good when you know you’re down
    A super dope homeboy from the Oaktown
    And I’m known as such
    And this is a beat uh u can’t touch
    I told you homeboy u can’t touch this
    Yeah that’s how we’re livin’ and you know u can’t touch this
    Look in my eyes man u can’t touch this
    You know let me bust the funky lyrics u can’t touch this
    Fresh new kicks and pants
    You got it like that now you know you wanna dance
    So move out of your seat
    And get a fly girl and catch this beat
    While it’s…

  79. I’ll say again, another win in large part thanks to the three veteran amigos — Cutch, Segura, JT. Obviously, Arietta, too.

    1. Frank…..great season so far….but when you think about….many imports making it this way….the latest four..Cutch, Segura, Harper and Realmuto……..and outside of Hoskins, Cesar and a little Kingery…..Phillies home-grown talent as for position players is pretty realistically sad.
      Only shows how poor the talent development level is so far.
      Maybe the guys in A level and on up will start to make impactful differences..

      1. Realistically, you’ve got only Bohm who so far has shown the minor league performance that would indicate he has the goods to be an impactful major league ball player at some point. There are a few others (e.g., Hasley, Moniak, Medina, Howard) who could maybe still develop, but honestly you’re crossing your fingers and hoping these guys figure it out. Pretty much everyone else is a #4/#5 starter, a bullpen arm, or maybe a bench guy. Overall, the impactful MLB talent on the pharm is pretty thin.

      2. Romus, true, but some talent did go into acquiring Segura and Realmuto so it’s paid dividends in that regard.

        And I’m excited about these vets, plus Hoskins and even Hernandez. Pitching still iffy.

        Meanwhile, Bohm, and to a lesser extent Moniak, Haseley and our slew of catchers are cause for hope that home grown guys will develop.

        And is Grullon for real as a hitter? We keep saying high BABIP and regression to the mean. He keeps saying “F You, I’m hitting.”

        Finally, I’m looking forward to Hammer. He was outstanding to see in Clearwater. And talking about Clearwater, young Mr. Damon Jones looks like he belongs in Reading.

        1. Talking about Jones. If walks were his problem, he might be solving it. Five walks in his last 22.3 innings. 33 K’s in the same time.

          For anybody who says he’s old for the league, I say, move him up.

  80. i like to ask Kape, why is your third basemen late in the game. playing of the line in a tight game.? Best i have seen Arrieta in a long while. The ump was terrible, I still am amaze how we got such a good player like Segura.

    1. Playing the line in a tight game means you give up a single instead of a double. So the next hitter has to to hit a double or above to bring the player in instead of a single. It’s a standard shift on the pull side late in games. They’ve been doing this for decades.

  81. Guru that was my question why was he not playing the line. I know is been in baseball for yr.s That ball hit in eight inning would have been a out at least, Kingery was way off the line

    1. I think analytics argue against guarding the line because of the much higher probability a ball in the hole. Tim mccarver used to argue for years against guarding the line late in the game. Not saying I agree, but I’m sure that’s the reason.

      1. If anything, they were probably just playing the man instead of the situation. His numbers probably said he was exceedingly more likely to hit it towards the hole than the line.

        It’s also possible they were trying to help Kingery specifically. He’s got good range, so he can play further from the line than Franco could. He’s also less likely to make an out from the line, so maybe they concede the out there and increase the likelihood of converting at other places on the field.

    2. Remember what Wheels always said at the end of games …’team is playing the no doubles defense’

  82. I think that Realmuto is a giant reason why Nerris is doing so well this year. In addition to taking charge of the staff, the pitchers have confidence in throwing breaking balls in the dirt without having wild pitches or pass balls. Last year with Alfaro, pitchers were leery to throw their best pitches.

  83. If the Phillies had gone to the bottom of the ninth with a 4-2 lead, who would Kapler have sent in to try to close out the game?

    1. Pretty simple, whoever was available that was the best matchup. Not sure who that is since I don’t have the stats they have. I know you are looking for a name but other than Neris you do have a couple other guys who have closing experience all be very sketchy now.

  84. Brandon Woodruff
    An 11th round pick out of Miss State….pitched three years @ Miss St. and in three years throws a total of only 90 innings with a career collegian WHIP of 1.55, and almost an ERA of 4.5, and then becomes a MLB dominant pitcher that throws hi 90s!
    Go figure.

      1. Damon Jones could be someone to watch, that more or less ‘came out of nowhere’
        Kyle Glogoski also.

  85. VV officially becomes a BP pitcher and promptly pitches awful today. Pivetta called back up to start Tuesday, but did nothing at LHV to show he deserves to be back. We have some issues that need to be filled from outside.

    1. ……..and a .167 hitter keeps us from being “no hit”! We do have some pitching issues Matt, that’s for sure.

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