Threshers Recap – 5/15/2019

Judging by the tone of comments lately, I think it bears repeating that the minor leagues are about development, not game outcomes.  More so at Reading than at Lehigh Valley which is essentially spare parts for the big league club.  As you move down each level, you can expect there to be more concern with development.

Okay, I’m going to ramble on here for a bit.

Nobody will be promoted from Clearwater to Reading because “Reading needs help”.  Wins and losses at Reading will not dictate when a player is promoted.  When the development staff determines that a player has successfully met the criteria they established in his individual development plan, he will be promoted.  The box score lines you love to cite are not necessarily the deciding factor in promotion.

What we see in a box score does not necessarily define how good or bad a player’s game was.  A batter can show good development with an 0-4 night.  A pitcher can display same even though he gave up 4 runs in 4 innings.  We don’t know what a player is working on any given night.  It was a fluke that I found out that Dylan Cozens was told to concentrate on contact over power in Clearwater where he hit just 5 HR before slugging 40 in Reading the next season. It was a fluke that I learned that Severino Gonzalez was told to use a different secondary pitch and NOT use his customary (and effective) out pitch when he moved up to Reading.

The organization has decided to challenge several prospects at levels where they may be too young to compete.   Consider that the organization may not be adverse to these players repeating these levels this year AND next if necessary.  So, it is unlikely (but not impossible) that a player will be demoted.  This may even include Luis Garcia who would seem to be the most likely candidate to drop back a level.  (Remember that I would have started Garcia in XST with a move up at a time when they could control the number of games played.)  I don’t think the Phillies rolled the dice and said, “let’s put him in Lakewood, and if he fails we’ll drop him down”.  I think they had a plan and that plan was to let him sink or swim at Lakewood.  If he swam, he could be fast tracked to Clearwater next year.  If he sank, he would start at Lakewood again.  I don’t believe they expected him to sink, I just believe that they are prepared to let him play there all season and start there next season if necessary. They have a plan.  They aren’t making it up as they go along.

Jhailyn Ortiz hit a home run today, but is struggling.  A friend up north attended one of our affilaite’s games last season.  He told me that he spoke with a scout who told him that Ortiz had an eye problem.  The scout went so far as to say congenital.  I learned this spring that this was either incorrect or true but corrected/correctable.  I don’t know what to believe. But, it appears to me that Ortiz is having difficulty with balls in right field.  I considered that he has to look back into the setting sun during the early innings of games at Spectrum Field.  But, He had to look up into a noon sun during games at the Complex.  When he was in the GCL, he showed good movement left, right, and back.  Not just for a big man, but for any right fielder.  The only difficulty I reported was on balls that would land in front of him. He had a penchant for charging and trying to make those catches and would often have the balls bounce in front of him and ricochet off his body (but not get past him).  This season he’s had several balls reach the wall where he was almost but not quite in the right position to make a play on the ball.  He’s just missing on these.  He looks ubnsure on other balls hit into right field.  I wonder if the stories about his eyes are true.  If yes, that could explain his problems at the plate.  (I’ll go into how he looks at the plate within a few days.)

Someone (Hinkie, I think) mentioned that MLB is the only sport that does not allow the trading of draft picks (with a qualifier).  I would take that a step further and point out that MLB is the only sport where draft picks do not see the major leagues for 2, 3, 4 years. There are almost never any first year impact players in the MLB draft.  I don’t have an opinion on trading picks, I just wanted to add this point.

Sorry for all that rambling, but there’s very little good news for you box score guys below.

Clearwater (18-20) had their 6-game winning streak snapped, losing to Lakeland, 9-4. 

Today was Education Day or some such thing and a couple thousand grammar/middle school students were in attendance for the 10:30 start.  The Threshers have a history of poor performance in these morning games (they were once one-hit during a double header on one of these early starts, yeah, two 7-inning games only one hit), so I prudently passed.  Alejandro Requena (2-2, 4.62) should have too.  He shut out Lakeland for three innings before giving up seven runs on 7 hits and 2 walks in five innings.  He struck out four.

Luis Ramirez (2.57) gave up 2 runs in two innings on 7 hits.  He struck out three.  Grant Dyer (0.93) pitched a clean inning.

Madison Stokes hit a solo HR (5) in the fourth.  Daniel Brito doubled home a run in the seventh.  And Jhailyn Ortiz hit a 2-run HR (2) in the eighth.

The top of the Threshers order went 0-13 with a walk.  The team went 1-4 with RISP. But they did manage to accumulate 10 hits.

Stokes (.293) went 2-4, Jake Scheiner (.264) went 2-4, Ben Aklinski (.231) went 2-3, and Brito went 2-4.

  • #1 Alec Bohm (.317) went 0-5
  • #5 Spencer Howard (1-1, 2.25) placed on the 7-day IL, shoulder soreness
  • #11 Jhailyn Ortiz (.167) went 1-3 with a run scored, HR (2), 2 RBI, BB 
  • #12 Simon Muzziotti (.299)
  • #17 Kyle Young (1-3, 4.29) placed on the 7-day IL, TJ surgery
  • #18 Nick Maton (.316) went 0-3 with a BB
  • #19 Rodolfo Duran (.188) went 1-3 with a BB
  • #20 Daniel Brito (.233)went 2-4 with a BB

Lehigh Valley (19-17) lost to Durham, 12-1. 

JoJo Romero got tagged for 6 runs on 7 hits and 4 walks in four innings.  This led to a string of one-inning relievers who gave up 6 more runs.  Yacksel Rios (6.32) gave up one run on one hit and 2 walks.  Tyler Gilbert (3.00) gave up 2 runs on 3 hits. Josh Martin (5.03) gave up 3 runs on 3 hits and 2 walks.  Seth McGarry (0.00) pitched a clean inning.

The IronPigs had just 4 hits.  they scored their only run in the third inning on Gift Ngoepe’s solo HR 93).

  • #6 Enyel De Los Santos (2-0, 2.37)
  • #7 JoJo Romero (2-2, 9.64) – 4.0 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 4 BB, 1 K
  • #10 Ranger Suarez (2-1, 5.64)
  • #16 Cole Irvin (2-0, 2.25) promoted to Phillies on May 12th
  • #22 Kyle Dohy (0-1, 11.88)
  • #28 Edgar Garcia (1-1, 1.80) promoted to the Phillies on June 6th

Reading (18-16) lost to New Hampshire, 9-3.

Bailey Falter (3-2, 3.34) pitched 5.1 innings and gave up 5 runs on 5 hits.  He struck out five. His Achilles heal was 2 HR.  Jeff Singer (1.54) stranded an inherited runner, pitched an inning, and was charged with 4 runs (1 ER) on 2 hits, a wild pitch,  and a walk.  Aaron Brown (4.42) pitched the final 1.2 innings and struck out three, however he allowed 3 inherited runners to score.

Josh Stephen tied the game in the third inning with a solo HR (1).  The Phils scored 2 runs in the eighth on Jose Gomez’ sac fly and Mickey Moniak’s RBI double.

The Phils’ 6 hits included 4 XBH – 1 HR (Stephen) and 3 doubles (Moniak, Randolph, and Bossart).  They also had one walk v. 12 strike outs.

  • #2 Adonis Medina (0-2, 5.46)
  • #3 Adam Haseley (.222)
  • #9 Mickey Moniak (.219) went 1-4 with a double, RBI
  • #13 Arquimedes Gamboa (.104) went 1-4 with a run scored
  • #15 Mauricio Llovera (1-0, 4.15)
  • #21 David Parkinson (3-2, 3.69)
  • #22 Kyle Dohy (2-0, 0.82) – promoted to Lehigh Valley
  • #25 Cornelius Randolph (.244) went 1-4 with a double 
  • #29 Connor Seabold – on the 7-day IL

Lakewood (13-24) beat Hagerstown, 3-2.

Tyler McKay (6.66) gave up 2 runs in four innings on 2 hits and 2 walks.  He struck out seven.  Tyler Carr (2-1, 0.51) pitched 2.1 shutout innings allowing 3 hits, walking one, and striking out four.  Robinson Martinez (5.84) allowed a walk in 1.2 innings.  Oscar Marcelino (2.38) picked up his first save with a scoreless inning.

The BlueClaws took the lead with 3 runs in the sixth on Malvin Matos RBI single, Jack Conley’s RBI double, and Hunter Stovall’s RBI single.

Conley (.357) had a 2-hit game.

  • #1 Alec Bohm (.367) – promoted to Clearwater, 4/29/2019
  • #4 Luis Garcia (.193) went 1-4
  • #8 Francisco Morales (0-3, 6.26)
  • #14 Rafael Marchan (.315)
  • #23 Dominic Pipkin (1-1, 5.01)
  • #24 Kevin Gowdy (0-1, 3.60)
  • #26 Jhordany Mezquita (1-3, 5.32)
  • #30 Manuel Silva (2.61)

Unassigned Prospects

  • #27 Starlyn Castillo

Williamsport begins its 2019 season on June 14th.

GCL Phillies East begins its 2019 season  on June 24th.

GCL Phillies West begins its 2019 season on June 24th.

DSL Phillies Red begins its 2019 season on June 2nd.

DSL Phillies White begins its 2019 season on June 2nd.

Here’s the affiliate scoreboard from MiLB.

The rosters and lists are up to date as of May 14th (and are pointing to current files).

Today’s Transactions (newest transactions in bold text)
5/13/2019 – Phillies signed IFA RHP Norman Anciani to a minor league contract
5/13/2019 – Phillies placed RHP Edubray Ramos on the 10-day IL, shoulder stiffness
5/13/2019 – Phillies sent 2B Scott Kingery on a rehab assignment to Lakewood
5/13/2019 – Phillies recalled Austin Davis from Lehigh Valley
5/12/2019 – Phillies optioned LHP Austin Davis to Lehigh Valley
5/12/2019 – Phillies selected the contract of LHP Cole Irvin from Lehigh Valley
5/11/2019 – Phillies signed IFA RHP Raul Mendoza to a minor league contract
5/11/2019 – Phillies placed RHP Vince Velasquez on the 10-day IL retro to 5/7/19, forearm
5/11/2019 – San Francisco claimed CF Aaron Altherr off waivers from Phillies
5/11/2019 – Phillies recalled LHP Austin Davis from Lehigh Valley
5/11/2019 – Luis Cedeno assigned to Williamsport from Clearwater
5/11/2019 – Luis Ramirez assigned to Clearwater from Williamsport
5/11/2019 – Tom Windle assigned to Lehigh Valley from Williamsport

41 thoughts on “Threshers Recap – 5/15/2019

  1. The Phillies may have a “plan” for some of these kids but that doesn’t make the plan correct. In a few cases the plan is dead wrong. Admit your mistakes with the “plan” and move on. A kid like Maton needs to be promoted. It’s bad business to stick with a bad plan.

      1. Not sure it is fair to say this. Kingery was not good last year. But the team was never going to do anything, so getting him a year of experience struggling at the ML level may end up being better for him than letting him hit .300 at AAA against 89 mph junk ballers

        1. Wow Dan thats a amazing thought, Seeing in front of are eyes have bad he was, and now based on less than 40 at bats you come up with that statement

  2. Conley is adding another bat to our catcher group. He did hit over 320 last year in the GCL, adding to our catching reserves. He, Marchan and Gutierrez have all been terrific at Lakewood.

  3. Hopefully Jojo is one of those guys who’s just working on stuff. It’s certainly possible.

    Bohm took an 0-5, but didn’t strike out. Sometimes they just don’t fall in.

  4. Jhailyn Ortiz:
    Perhaps the Ortiz eye issues can be addressed in his splits between day and night games…that could be one indication if there were some sort of a problem,
    If there was a huge discrepancy the Phillies would be the first to realize it.

    1. Romus they didnt do anything when The Germans bombed Pear Harbor, So you think they will do anything now with ortiz

  5. Jim is correct…Minors are about development and development is not linear. That said, I have been following minor league prospects for a long time. I delve into the weeds a lot. And in my opinion, there are clear patterns. Certainly there are not 100% rules. There are always exceptions. But I have developed some “rules of the road” for the highest probable outcome:
    – Each position develops in different speeds. For example pitching is an art. And it takes time for young pitchers to master breaking balls, sequencing and pitching rather than throwing. So as long as a prospect has great stuff and velo, I don’t care about stats like ERA in the minors (Eg Medina this year). K rate and Velo are the key for pitcher prospects imo. Followed closely by walk rate (which can improve as a player gets older). The other stuff is noise imo.
    – to have a Good/Great hit tool, you must take pitches, take walks and have a low K rate in the minors. Great hit tool players typically show an elite walk and k rate very early. It is common for great hit tool players to have a minor league k rate in the low to mid teens. And an upside down bb:k rate. I do not think that age impacts approach or contact rate. I think it is a vision thing. You either have elite visual processing or you don’t. Imo if you struggle to pick up spin, then you will always struggle with that. Especially as you climb the ladder and pitchers spin it better and hide it better.
    – good/great mlb hitters have great minor league stats. Note, that doesn’t mean great minor league stats will always mean a great mlb hitter. I didn’t say that. There are busts like Dom Brown. But generally speaking when you look at the minor league stats of good/great mlb players they dominated, at least at a few levels.
    – Power often develops later. Sometime in the majors.
    – Catchers develop later
    – If your babip is higher than you ob% then your performance is worse then it looks
    – High ground ball rate hitters and heavy pull hitters will get exposed in the majors
    – If you find yourself continually making excuses for a position prospect, it is unlikely that they will be an impact mlb player. One bad half year is fine. But generally, impact mlb position players do well in the minors if not for a full season then definitely for the second half at the same level. Pitching is different.

    I have other guidelines but these are the major ones that I use to judge prospects.

    What are your rules of the road?

    1. “..– good/great mlb hitters have great minor league stats. Note, that doesn’t mean great minor league stats will always mean a great mlb hitter”…that is spot on.

      I have heard innumerable times you ‘cannot scout the box scores’…..however metrics are a good projection of what a player will be.
      Rarely will poor minor league peripheral of metrics translate into a good MLB player.
      Unless a player is a defensive wizard…Freddy Galvis for example
      …..minors slash….246/.291/.334
      …..majors slash….247/.290/.378
      …it is difficult to project a long and lasting MLB career.

      1. It actually depends on who the hits are off of. Most minor league pitchers won’t reach the majors so hits off them are not as relevant.

        1. That is also true…..and the higher the level of competition…i.e., AA and AAA levels, also means better pitching that hitters will have to face..

        2. That is the key point. Great hitters should destroy pitchers with average or below stuff, which the minors, particularly the low minors are filled with. So it is a big red flag if a hitter struggles in the low minors imo.

      2. Romus i always preach this. That is why i always ask hinkie about conference guys play in. helps me with there stats. and if they are legit or not

  6. v1, I always enjoy your perspective and find it very informative. I am interested in knowing how you rate the hitting prospects that we have.

    1. Thanks Matt.

      I am pretty encouraged by Bohm’s early performance.
      – I am not concerned at all about his lack of huge power. I have zero doubt that if he hits well, the power will show.
      – I love that his K rate is in the 15% range
      – His walk rate was exceptional in Lakewood. It hasn’t carried over to Clearwater yet, but still a small sample size. I have confidence that the walk rate will go up.
      – He is seeing 3.7 pitches per PA in CLW, which is decent
      – He sprays the all all over the field. not only a pull hitter. that will make it impossible to shift him
      – His GB/FB rate is sub 1, which is good

      I am pretty discouraged by the performance of Moniak, Haseley and Randolph.

      Garcia is obviously overwhelmed by low A. But the scouting reports on him are exceptional. Let’s see how he handles the second half. He is seeing a lot of pitches (3.9/PA) and one thing that scouts love is his approach for his age. He has an ok walk rate. Hi K rate is too high, but let’s see how he progresses as the year goes on. I agree with Jim, I would be surprised if he is demoted. But Garcia is pull heavy and also has a lot of ground balls. So those are flags.

      I really like Nick Maton. His walk and K rates are really good. He has a sub 1 GB:FB rate. and is not overly pull heavy. He has some pop and some speed. And plays a premium position.

      I love Marchan. He has an upside down BB:K rate and a single digit K rate. Those are really, really good signs. His entire career he has had a K rate in single digits. I have seen video of him and he has a short, compact swing. Really, high on him.

      1. Would you say the following power rankings for position players is accurate?

        1 Bohm
        2 Marchan
        3 Vierling
        4 Maton
        5 Garcia
        6 Grullon

        1. Personally I like Maton over Vierling. Much better K and Walk rates. And more valuable defensive position. They both see a lot of pitches per PA. I like both, but Maton more. Agree with Hinkie on him.

  7. v1 – Do you think that Grullion pushes Knapp next spring for the backup job? I like Stokes, Muzziotti, and Vierling, but they’re all still 2 or more years away.

    1. The scouting reports on Grullon’s bat are not good. I have read slow bat speed. His K rate is pretty high at 27% for someone without huge power. His current stats are inflated by an unsustainable BABIP of .441. So it is tough to figure out what his hitting will be in the majors. But I understand that he is a very good defensive catcher with a howitzer of an arm. So I definitely see him as a MLB’er and it is hard to imagine that his hitting is worse than Knapps.

  8. How about Muzziotti, v1? He is hitting well, and seems to be outstandng defensively. 17 Ks and 11 BBs, the last I saw over 32 games and plus 100 ABs. That seems to be excellent production for a CF?

      1. I do not think it is a typo…he is pulling the ball more, like when he was in the GCL in 2017, but probably now rolling over them more often. With his speed GBs to the left side can be a plus.

          1. Now if that isn’t ironic!
            …I always comped him to Inciarte….and he happens to be one of the two over 3.0.
            And he is having one of his worst seasons so far.

  9. welp, Thresher Arts Spring BlowOut Sale is almost over. alotta yall been missin it. tsk tsk. cmon. i LOOK at yalls events at least. geepers. iym invisible it seems. 😶🎨💖🔥 jss

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