Open Discussion: Week of November 26, 2018

The Hot Stove Season continues.  The MLBPA Executive Board Meets in Dallas this week. Of more importance to baseball fans, 8:00 PM Friday is the deadline for teams to tender contracts to unsigned players on their 40-man rosters, including arbitration-eligible players.  Non-tendered players become free agents.  Tendered players who are arbitration eligible who do not accept the tender proceed to the arbitration process in February.

Players in red pinstripes who await tenders include –

  • Arbitration eligibles:
  • Luis Avilan ($2.45M in 2018, final arb year),
  • Cesar Hernandez ($5.1M in 2018, 3rd of 4 arb years),
  • Luis Garcia ($1.2M in 2018, 2nd of 3 arb years),
  • Aaron Nola ($573K in 2018, 1st of 3 arb years),
  • Maikel Franco ($2.95M in 2018, 2nd of 4 arb years),
  • Vince Velasquez ($559K in 2018, 1st of 3 arb years),
  • Hector Neris ($582.5K in 2018, 1st of 3 arb years),
  • Jerad Eickhoff ($568K in 2018, 1st of 3 arb years),
  • Aaron Altherr ($561K in 2018, 1st of 3 arb years),
  • Adam Morgan ($559K in 2018, 1st of 3 arb years), and maybe
  • Justin Bour ($3.4M in 2018, 2nd of 3 arb years); as well as
  • Not yet Ready for Arbitration Players:
  • Edubray Ramos ($554K in 2018),
  • Zach Eflin (unknown in 2018),
  • Nick Williams ($553K in 2018),
  • Jorge Alfaro ($547K in 2018),
  • Rhys Hoskins ($552.5K in 2018),
  • Victor Arano ($545K in 2018),
  • Roman Quinn ($545K in 2018),
  • Seranthony Dominguez ($545K in 2018),
  • Edgar Garcia,
  • Adonis Medina, and
  • Arquimedes Gamboa

This past Tuesday was the deadline for organizations to expand and submit their 40-man rosters prior to the Rule 5 Draft.  The Phillies selected the contracts of – 

  • Edgar Garcia,
  • Adonis Medina, and
  • Arquimedes Gamboa

The 40-man roster stands at 38 (until the rumored release of Justin Bour goes through).

This is the Phuture Phillies Open Discussion for Phillies and other baseball topics.

Key Dates:

  • October 9, 2018 – Opening Day for the Arizona Fall League (AFL)
  • October 12, 2018 – Opening Day for the Mexican Winter League (MPL)
  • October 12, 2018 – Opening Day for the Venezuelan Winter League (LVBP)
  • October 13, 2018 – Opening Day for the Dominican Winter League (LIDOM)
  • October 22, 2018 – Opening Day for the Nicaraguan Winter League (LNBP) 
  • October 29, 2018, 9:00 AM – “Following the completion of the term of his Uniform Player’s Contract, any Player with 6 or more years of Major League service who has not executed a contract for the next succeeding season shall become a free agent.”  Organizations began an exclusive five-day negotiation window (referred to as “the quiet period” in the CBA) with their own free agents. During “the quiet period” any Club representative and any free agent or his representative may talk with each other and discuss the merits of the free agent contracting, when eligible; provided that the Club and the free agent shall not negotiate terms or contract with each other. The following subjects are among those which may properly be discussed between any Club and such Player:
    • (i) the Player’s interest in playing for the Club, and the Club’s interest in having the Player play for it;
    • (ii) the Club’s plans about how it intends to utilize the Player’s services (as a starting pitcher or reliever, as a designated hitter or not, platooning, etc.);
    • (iii) the advantages and disadvantages of playing for the Club including the nature of the organization, the climate of the city, availability of suitable housing, etc.;
    • (iv) length of contract;
    • (v) guarantee provisions; and
    • (vi) no-trade or limited no-trade provisions.
    • Notwithstanding the foregoing, the free agent and his former Club may engage in negotiations and enter into a contract during “the quiet period”.
  • November 2nd of the last year of a player’s Minor League Uniform Player Contract, the player’s Minor League Uniform Player Contract shall expire and the player shall become a ‘Minor League free agent’ unless the player’s Major or Minor League club has remaining options to renew the contract.  (Major League Rule 55)
    • According to Major League Rule 3(b), “All Minor League Uniform Player Contracts between either a Major or a Minor League Club and a player who has not previously signed a contract with a Major or a Minor League Club shall be for a term of seven Minor League playing seasons.”
  • November 2, 2018, 5:00 PM – Deadline for organizations to submit qualifying offers to their free agents. This year’s QO is $17.9M.
    • This is also the deadline for organizations to exercise any club/mutual options.
  • November 2, 2018 – Free agents become eligible to sign with any team.
  • November 2, 2018 – Opening Day for the Columbian Winter League (LCBP)
  • November 6-8, 2018 – GM meetings, Carlsbad, CA.
  • November 12, 2018, 5:00 PM – Deadline for players to accept/reject qualifying offers.  Those who decline will become free agents.
  • November 14-15, 2018 – Owners Meetings in Atlanta , GA.
  • November 15, 2018 – Opening Day for the Puerto Rican Winter League (LBPRC)
  • November 15, 2018 – Opening Day for the Australian Baseball League (ABL)
  • November 17, 2018 – Last game of the Arizona Fall League (AFL)
  • November 20, 2018 – Deadline for roster expansion to 40 players prior to the Rule 5 draft.
  • November 26-29: MLBPA Executive Board Meeting, Dallas, TX
  • November 30, 8:00 PM EST – Deadline for teams to tender contracts to unsigned players on their 40-man rosters, including arbitration-eligible players.  Non-tendered players become free agents.  Tendered players who are arbitration eligible who do not accept the tender proceed to the arbitration process in February.
  • December 9-13, 2018 – Winter Meetings in Las Vegas, Nevada
  • December 13, 2018 – Rule 5 draft.
  • January 11, 2019 – Salary arbitration filing deadline
  • February 1-20, 2019 – Salary arbitration hearings
  • February 13, 2019 – pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training
  • February 14, 2019 – pitchers and catchers first workout
  • February 18, 2019 – all other players report to Spring Training
  • February 19, 2019 – first full squad workout
  • February 22, 2019 – Phillies’ 2019 spring training opener at Tampa Bay (TBD)
  • February 23, 2019 – Phillies’ 2019 spring home opener v. Pittsburgh (1:05 PM)
  • February 24, 2019 – at Detroit (1:05 PM)
  • February 25, 2019 – v. Detroit (1:05 PM)
  • TBA (last year on February 27th) – Minor League Spring Training begins
  • February 26, 2019 – at NY Yankees (TBD)
  • February 27, 2019 – v. Minnesota (1:05 PM)
  • February 28, 2019 – Split Squad v. Baltimore (1:05 PM), at Toronto (1:07 PM)
  • March 1, 2019 – v. Pittsburgh (1:05 PM)
  • March 2, 2019 – at Tampa Bay (TBD)
  • March 3, 2019 – at Minnesota (1:05 PM)
  • March 4, 2019 – off day
  • March 5, 2019 – v. St. Louis (1:05 PM)
  • March 6, 2019 – at Toronto (1:07 PM)
  • March 7, 2019 – Split Squad v. NY Yankees (1:05 PM), at Detroit (1:05 PM)
  • March 8, 2019 – at Atlanta (6:05 PM)
  • March 9, 2019 – v. Toronto (1:05 PM)
  • March 10, 2019 – at Baltimore (TBD)
  • March 11, 2019 – v. Tampa Bay (1:05 PM)
  • March 12, 2019 – off day
  • March 13, 2019 – at NY Yankees (TBD)
  • March 14, 2019 – Split Squad at Pittsburgh (1:05 PM), at Tampa Bay (TBD)
  • March 15, 2019 – v. Toronto
  • March 16, 2019 – v. Houston
  • March 17, 2019 – v. NY Yankees (ss)
  • March 18, 2019 – at St. Louis
  • March 19, 2019 – at Houston
  • March 20, 2019 – v. Detroit
  • March 21, 2019 – v. Toronto
  • March 22, 2019 – at NY Yankees
  • March 23, 2019 – at Pittsburgh (ss)
  • March 24, 2019 – v. Baltimore (ss)
  • March 25, 2019 – v. Tampa Bay
  • March 28, 2019 – Phillies’ 2019 season home opener v. Atlanta (3:05)

The rosters and lists are up to date.

Transactions (newest transactions in bold text)
11/20/18 – Phillies selected the contract of RHP Edgar Garcia from Lehigh Valley
11/20/18 – Phillies selected the contracts of RHP Adonis Medina from Clearwater
11/20/18 – Phillies selected the contract of SS Arquimedes Gamboa from Clearwater
11/16/18 – Phillies signed free agent 3B Ali Castillo to a minor league contract/Reading
11/16/18 – Phillies signed free agent RHP Camilo Brazoban to a future services contract
11/12/18 – SS Pedro Florimon elected free agency
11/10/18 – Phillies signed free agent RHP Carlos Valero to a future services contract
11/8/18 – Phillies signed free agent RHP Jose Guaramaco to a future services contract
11/7/18 – Phillies signed free agent OF Derek Escobar to a future services contract
11/2/18 – Phillies sent SS Pedro Florimon outright to Lehigh Valley
11/2/18 – OF Ryan Goins elected free agency
11/2/18 – 1B Zach Green elected free agency
11/2/18 – C Matt McBride elected free agency
11/2/18 – LF Danny Ortiz elected free agency
11/2/18 – C Nick Rickles elected free agency
11/2/18 – SS Dean Anna elected free agency
11/2/18 – RHP Pedro Beato elected free agency
11/2/18 – CF Collin Cowgill elected free agency
11/2/18 – RHP Ranfi Casimiro elected free agency
11/2/18 – C Logan Moore elected free agency
11/2/18 – 3B Jesmuel Valentin elected free agency
11/2/18 – RF Jiandido Tromp elected free agency
11/2/18 – 2B Heiker Meneses elected free agency
11/2/18 – RHP Mario Sanchez elected free agency
11/2/18 – RHP Harold Arauz elected free agency
11/2/18 – C Gabriel Lino elected free agency
11/2/18 – 3B Will Middlebrooks elected free agency
11/2/18 – RHP Alberto Tirado elected free agency
11/2/18 – C Kevin Martir elected free agency
11/1/18 – Phillies signed C Victor Cairo to a future services contract
10/29/18 – 2B Asdrubal Cabrera elected free agency
10/29/18 – C Wilson Ramos elected free agency
10/29/18 – RF Jose Bautista elected free agency
10/29/18 – LHP Aaron Loup elected free agency
10/29/18 – Lehigh Valley released 1B Joey Meneses
10/25/18 – DSL Phillies Red activated 1B Maximo De La Rosa
10/25/18 – DSL Phillies White activated RHP Jose Brazon
10/10/18 – Reading activated RHP Mario Sanchez from the 7-day disabled list
10/10/18 – Reading activated LHP JoJo Romero from the 7-day disabled list
10/10/18 – Reading activated RHP Alexis Rivero from the 7-day disabled list
10/8/18–Phillies signed free agent RHP Carlo Reyes to a minor league contract.
10/5/18–3B Trevor Plouffe elected free agency.
9/27/18–Phillies signed free agent RHP Cristofer Adames to a minor league contract
9/22/18–Phillies signed free agent LHP Joel Valdez to a minor league contract.
9/14/18–Phillies signed free agent RHP Hermes Astudillo to a minor league contract

733 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of November 26, 2018

      1. If we take Jerry Dipoto at his word, he’s planning on a quick turnaround, and not a long rebuild. I’ve been on record in favor of one of VV or Zach Eflin + Odubel Herrera for Diaz and Logan Gilbert.

          1. Segura is turning 29 and under contract through 2022. I know there are concerns about his makeup. He’s had some personal heartache in his past. Again, are we looking for boy scouts or ball players who sometimes show they care, if unwisely? His hit tool is elite. If the FO is tuned in to building a better culture on the whole, they need to identify leaders, be they already in the fold or in the market, and not be overly cautious about one player in particular.

            1. he did really fall off after a terrific first two months of the season. how has his defense been since moving back to short in Seattle?

        1. I was probably the most vocal Gilbert supporter last year leading up to the draft. Who’d’a thunk that he’d get shut down due to mono, of all things? Anyway, I think the projection and upside are still there, and I think he’d rise quickly through our system.

  1. The rule 5 draft is now just 17 days away. The Phillies currently have a couple of spots available on their 40 man roster, and could easily add a couple more.
    Two things I’d like to see Matt Klentak consider:
    1. draft LAD’s 3B prospect Christian Santana. At 21 YO. he’s tooled up with crazy bat speed and a laser arm. He’d be worth having in camp and maybe on the roster in 2019 … if he makes it to the Phillies with the 14th pick.

    2. look into drafting a player for another team selecting later in exchange for international money. Klentak did this last winter when he picked Nick Burdi from the Twins and dealt him to the Pirates for 500 thousand J2 dollars. I believe Klentak can probably do the same thing this year with Baltimore. The O’s pick first. They’ll more than likely look to select another guy at the top of the second round, and may not want to wait around risking the player they want. The O’s are still sitting on a boat load of international cash.

    1. Hinkie…looks like with the new blood in Baltimore those days of trading away their int’l money may have curtailed.
      Brady Anderson wants to go in a new direction it seems.
      But not sure if they can still be enticed with trading their CBA pick with a reasonable offer.

      1. Romus … I don’t think Brady Anderson is making those calls. Also, there really aren’t any big names left on the international market (except for maybe a Korean OFer, and I can’t remember his name off the top of my head).
        Lastly, you know me. I’m all for acquiring competitive balance picks. However, they can only be traded in season.

      1. Obviously, Santana has holes in his game/is not a perfect prospect. If he didn’t have some holes in his game/was a perfect prospect, he wouldn’t be available in the rule 5 draft. Think Odubel Herrera. The Phillies have nothing to lose (other than 100 thousand dollars and maybe a guy like Justin Bour or Luis Avilan or Mitch Walding) to bring Santana in for a spring training tryout.

  2. Looking forward to Machado, Corbin, Miller and Harper to be signed by Phillies. Trading Herrera and Franco, probable will be Santana.

    1. My issue with MM is turning a potential triple into a single in the playoffs … Not to mention the bush league moves on stepping on the 1B foot multiple times. Those are his actions, his words back it up as well. The explaination of his words shows a large glimpse into his character, but yes … unfortunately a dude like this is super talent.

      Honestly I get that he has the talent to improve the Phillies, but I hate cheering for a guy like him. It wouldn’t excite the fan base the way Harper would imo. They will both struggle, and when they do, I believe MM’s negative attitude would infect the lockeroom much more than Harper would.

      On the talent level, Harper in combination with other FA can improve the team with reasonably close WAR/outcomes as MM and other FA. With harpers group, you get the correct attitude. It is unbearable watching Herrera make the bonehead plays he does, with Cesar base running prowess… and in those two following MM lead… I would watch a lot less games.

      You can’t have it all, but I’d go harper and the FA group to get with him and make the push for Trout. If no trout, their will be other FA coming up. In no way do I believe MM walk back, the dude has about as much heart as a rock… can’t set that playing out well over the course of a 10 year contract. I wonder if he would even jog to 1B by year 6… legit concerns imo.

      1. Tac3, I feel your pain. However, I doubt Doobie, Cesar and Franco all return. In fact, I think at least 2 of the 3 are as good as gone. So if we wind up signing Machado, we are collectively a largely forgiving fan base. Michael Vick can attest to that. I wasn’t the biggest JRoll fan, mainly because I don’t think he made the most of his offensive skills. Laying down bunts instead of swinging for the fence. Infuriating. Yet he won as an undeniable part of the core. IMO, there is little or no difference between Manny and most of the upper crust talent in all of professional sports, let alone baseball. It’s unfortunately the air we now breathe. I prefer Harper if I had to choose. But I take Machado in a heartbeat otherwise.

        1. Jim, do you have a sense from where you’re perched as to who the brass prefers? Or can’t you speak openly? Just want your take, thanks.

          1. 1.) Yes. 2.) Not really. 3.) My opinion is that Machado is the better sign from a baseball stand point and the Phillies’ actual need for a professional SS. I believe the Phillies like Harper because he’s marketable, can be the face of the team, will sell more tickets, and because they are mistakenly listening to a fan base that “hates” Machado. I really hope the fourth item isn’t true.

            1. Jim, Do you have your own wish list for the off season? Do you have a strong feeling as to the odds of certain guys getting traded?

    2. Agree. Machado is a perfect fit for the Phillies on the field. He would still be my #1 FA target. However, it’s sounding more and more like this team is leaning towards Harper mostly because of off the field issues (mainly Harper will sell more tickets/attract more viewers).
      I will say … If/when Mike Trout becomes a Phillie, a Trout-Harper-Hoskins lineup makes more sense/is more imposing than a Trout-Machado-Hoskins lineup.

      1. Hinkie – I also agree with this thinking. Harper may be alot of things but he sure hustles – sometimes to injuries caused by his efforts. I also think he may have a longer “lifeline” as a player due to his elite power. He doesn’t play a demanding position (like MM) and is not as likely to get hurt in the field. Despite MM’s attitude etc. he is a true star – but he will ultimately, I believe, cause fandom to harass him – I don’t see Harper ever really quite doing that. And don’t think for a minute Boras won’t sell that !

    3. viagain,

      First of all, let me say that I’m glad to see your post. You are one of the guys whose posts I most look forward to. You bring a fresh, non-conformist view. Sometimes the presenter of new information. Sometimes the provocateur.

      Now, having said that, let me say that I disagree about Machado. It isn’t that he doesn’t run out obvious outs, though Pete Rose might have a different view of that.

      It’s that he appears to be totally selfish, like insisting on playing shortstop when he’s just so-so there but a gold glove 3B, and in apparent disregard of what is best for the team. There’s a reason the O’s lost more games than anyone else last year with MM in the line up not withstanding.

      Now, here’s the problem. The Phillies are trying to build a winner. They need veteran leadership in the club house for the young guys to emulate. How do you build a winning culture when you pay hundreds of millions of dollars to a guy who decides where he’s going to play and when he’s going to hustle?

      As I mentioned in an earlier post, the coach says “Go, kid. Hustle. Take one for the team,” etc. But then the kid looks across the locker room not only at a guy who the team tolerates non-hustle from, but that rewards him with hundreds of millions of dollars.

      It is a classic rule of management that your standard of performance is your lowest performer. Do the Phillies really want to set that standard at selfishness and lack of hustle?

      So, I’ll pass on Machado. And if you need any further proof, go again and look at the O’s record. He wasn’t a game changer. It takes more than one guy to build a team. Buy one guy can poison a locker room if not just tolerated, but held up by virtue of huge salary as the standard.

      1. Thank you for your kind words about my posts.

        As per your comment on Machado, I have long felt that fans hugely over value stuff that doesn’t matter like “veteran leadership”. I don’t think any of that matters in baseball. Baseball is not a team game. It is an individual game played collectively with other players on your team. When a batter is in the box, it is mono-a-mono. Nothing else matters. Here is my stuff…see if you can hit it. The best dugout leaders in the world have zero impact on the outcome. Same in reverse. The pitcher either has the stuff and command to get the guy out or he doesn’t. Liking the guy at shortstop will have zero impact on the pitch.

        Other sports are much more dependent upon team chemistry. But baseball outcomes really isn’t. I know that probably everyone on this blog will disagree with this post, but that is just what I feel.

  3. It goes over what we all have been talking about here for months. We are in on everyone, and every possibility is open to us because John Middleton said he may even spend some “stupid” money. I am hoping that the reality is that Klentak has a plan, a clear cut list of options ranked #1 to about #25. If he is all over the place, like all the bloggers and analysts seem to be, I am afraid he will get nothing done. Go to Corbin, make him your best offer, and if he turns it down, move on to Happ. I would like Happ more anyway because of the shorter/less$ commitment. I know Harper and Machado may involve bidding wars, but there is much more to be done besides signing one of them.

  4. Matt – Every day we learn of 2 or 3 new players that the Phillies are talking to. They’re kicking the tires on everybody out there, and everybody wants too much. With the FA’s the Phillies know all of the asking prices, and by now they’ve made a priority list of about a dozen players. My guess is that they’ve also targeted a half dozen players that they’d like to trade for.
    Arrieta started out asking for 7 years and Klentak got him down to 3. With Corbin, money won’t be the issue, but he’s asking for 6 years. If we can pay him a little more up front (and we can) maybe he’ll settle for 3 or 4 years. Happ, like Arrieta, is a veteran who pitches smart, and relies on his control, and would also be a good addition. I’ve been saying for 2 years that Velasquez future is in the bullpen. As a starter, he’s always going to hit 100 pitches by the 5th or 6th inning, but in the pen he can be used in long or short relief.
    As for Harper/ Machado, I think that the Phillies opening offer will eliminate most of the competition. I think the Phillies will sign Harper, and the Yankees will settle for the consolation prize (Machado).

    1. A very merry Christmas for me would be Harper, Donaldson, Kikuchi, Marwin, and Richards with Segura, Diaz, Strahm and Hedges via trade. Go get ’em, Klentak!

        1. I’d need to know more about Puk and his abilities and recovery, but I like the idea in concept. If you’re going to move good, cost controlled players – do it for players with great upside. Do that enough and some will hit big – very nice once this becomes a high payroll team.

        2. 8mark….A’s Billy Beane does have experience doing those type of trades….ie Addison Russell to the Cubs for Smard. a few years ago…..and Sonny Gray on the flip side.
          Puk will start to pitch later sometime after the seasons start in 2019, but his upside is Chris Sale IMO. And of course there is that inherent risk he does not come around.

    1. I want nothing to do with a declining Kimbrel and the contract he’s going to demand.
      Britton and Miller are better fits because they are LH throwers. I like Britton a little more, but would be fine with Miller also.
      To be honest … IMO the best relievers will be available via trade. Aside from Edwin Diaz, I’ve been on record lusting for Matt Strahm and Jose Alvarado. I think Alvarado has the stuff to grow into a dominant LH closer.

      1. I’d pass on Miller…..shoulder will more than likely eventually give out….unless the team wants a 34-year old relief pitcher who could be on multiple DLs thru the season.
        I have had enough of recovering injured relief pitchers in their mid-thirties.

        “Andrew Miller’s agent, Mark Rodgers, said Monday that his client is fully healthy.
        Miller missed three months this season with three separate disabled list stints due to knee, hamstring and shoulder injuries and posted a 4.24 ERA over just 37 appearances. However, he was given a full health workup by Dr. David Altchek and Rodgers said everything came back clean. “Altcheck saw absolutely nothing that would keep him from being the old Andrew Miller,” Rodgers added. Whether teams buy that Miller is indeed healthy will determine what kind of contract he will get this winter. The lefty reliever will turn 34 next May.”
        Source: New York Post

  5. I think the Phils may move early on a reliever and starting pitching. I could see Miller or Britton plus Morton and Richards, the last on a 3-year deal.

    The Phils could do a deal with the Twins who are looking for help at 2B and 3B. They could also use a first baseman but would have trouble with Santana’s salary.

    My suggestion:

    to the Twins –

    Hernandez, Santana, Franco and Arano

    to the Phils –

    RHP Addison Reed (salary), LHP Stephen Gonsalves, RHP Blaynbe Enlow, OF Jake Cave

    It’s of enormous value to the Phils to resolve the Santana dilemma, particularly if not eating most of his salary. Begin the Kingery era now. And sign Josh Donaldson. SS will resolve late but $ could produce the right outcome from Machado. I can’t shake the idea that Harper will re-sign in Washington.

  6. There seems to be a lot of buzz today about us, and I hope it is not just because the writers are trying to move things along. Of the 3 RPs, I take Britton, then Miller, and pass on Kimbrel. I am not trading Sixto to get Diaz, and I really don’t want to move Medina either.

  7. According to Jayson Stark, the Phillies have discussed Paul Goldschmidt with AZ. The deal would have involved Eflin and several young prospects. Talks fell apart when they tried to include Santana. Huh….

    1. Here it is.

      1. So the Phillies were willing to deal Zach Eflin for one year of Paul Goldschmidt. Do you guys still believe Klentak & company wouldn’t have dealt Eflin for 5+ years of Felipe Vazquez this summer ???

          1. When I proposed Eflin and four (non top tier) prospects for Vazquez (a deal to replicate the Ken Giles trade) this summer, everybody screamed, “No way!”. They all argued a young MOR SP is more valuable than a closer (Vazquez under contract thru 2023).
            Pittsburgh was contemplating dealing Vazquez this summer. They are not going to trade him now after unloading three good prospects for Chris Archer.
            The point is most of you soooo over-rate Eflin. This organization has pitchers like him at virtually all levels of their system. He is definitely much more expendable than most posters want to believe.

            1. You think? I maybe had that mindset going into last season, but I think Eflin really stepped up this past year and showed a lot of promise.

            2. Well i differ on preference….I like Eflin more than both Pivetta or Velazquez.
              Though you could probably throw all three in a bowl and mix them up and come out with a similar pitcher.

            3. For me … Nick Pivetta (#4 on my Phillies trade value list) is head and shoulders above Eflin and Velasquez. And with five years of team control (two at the league minimum), Pivetta would be worth a ton on the trade market.

            4. I don’t write much but I keep writing the same things.

              I love Pivetta. I have always believed he is the best of NP, VV, ZE. (And Eflin is second.) This has been my belief all year.

              2019 is Pivetta’s second full season. (And Hoskins’, Kingery’s, Alfaro’s, Dominguez, etc, etc) I believe we’re going to like the second act!

        1. Brings up kind of a random question, where would you put Eflin in terms of value amongst the other Phillies prospects? Personally, I think he’s worth much more than Medina and isn’t that far off from Sixto, being proven/young/controllable.

          1. Max … I posted my Phillies trade value chart a few weeks ago. For me, Sixto is #3, Medina is #6, and Eflin checks in at #10.

    2. I don’t get this…trade away the guy blocking your franchise hitter + assets for a franchise hitter that will do the same thing? How does that fix the problem of having one of the worst defenders in the league at any position, when in LF?

      Unless the Phillies are confident that a DH is coming to the NL soon, this one’s puzzling

        1. If the Phillies trade for Goldey and also assume Greinke since the DBacks want to send them out together in a package, …Middelton ought to fire Klentak and hire Ron Hextall as the GM.
          The only scenario I can see that occulting is in a three-way deal where the Philles keep the pitcher, ZG, and Goldey goes somewhere else.

          1. Romus … I just read today that the DBacks do not want to package Grienke with Goldschmidt. That would greatly depress the return for Goldschmidt, and fans would be totally put off by what would look like a salary dump of the face of the franchise.

            1. I thought I read they wanted to….perhaps i read that wrong.
              Then, do not see any logical in getting Goldey for a year.

            2. Romus … just went back and found out where I read the DBacks don’t want to package Grienke with Goldschmidt. It was from Ken Rosenthal in The Athletic https://theathletic.com/675591/2018/11/26/rosenthal-where-will-cano-go-could-diamondbacks-deal-a-pair-and-whats-up-with-the-bullpen-market/.
              That’s right I took your advice and asked for it for XMAS. Mrs. Hinkie (being the smart shopper that she has always been) got a Black Friday deal (50% off and a free T-shirt) !!!

      1. .290/.389/.533/.922 plus he can actually play first base .996 Fld% (just 6 errors) in 155 games. We can suffer through what should be a marginally improved Hoskins in LF for one more year. Or, if the Phils sign Harper and Brantley, Hoskins could become a trade chip, even if they don’t think they can re-sign Goldschmidt. It should be apparent by now, that the Phillies aren’t impressed with Hoskins’ ability to field “his natural position”.

        1. Well now THAT’S a mouthful. If the Phillies are THAT interested in Goldy, it certainly should raise the question of how committed they are to Hoskins, be it LF or 1B. The big rub in this case is Goldy’s one year. I mean, what gives?

            1. There are 2 more slots on the 40man roster, Romus. Hall could get a call up before long…

              I also saw where Kluber is being discussed. I wonder if they are/would be talking Santana in that deal. Makes sense if they chip in say, $10M and get a Cleveland prospect or 2 in addition to CK.

            2. 8mark…Kluber is a one year guy…like Goldey for the most part.
              Not sure Kluber will get any long term deals as a 34-year old ..Phillies would have team options for 2020 and 2021.

      1. I really like Josh but its hard to trust he can stay healthy enough to play 150 games or more. For the Braves it makes sense they made the playoffs last year.

        For us he doesn’t make sense. It’s manny or bust at 3B as far as I’m concerned otherwise just ride Franco until Bohm is ready.

        Where I am really looking for an early sign is in the rotation and or Britton.

  8. Braves also sign Donaldson. That one bothers me. First, come on Matt Klentak, show some signs of life! Second, a 1 year deal for $23 Million is a terrific signing by the Braves. They are not just going to lay down and let us have the division. We actually have to get better. He is a perfect guy for a comeback year, and if he doesn’t play well, it is only a 1 year commitment. Can we please do something?, anything?

  9. Braves have signed a good back up Catcher and a solid 3B in Donaldson. Go figure the Phillies are not doing squat. Can’t wait to hear their excuses.

    1. It is a great signing by the braves, imo. Donaldson looked cooked to me, but his numbers arent’t too bad. I hope I’m right. Either way the braves take a 1 year gamble on a potential MVP caliber season, if wrong, they can wipe their hands clean after the season.

      The phillies are rumored to be all over the league, yet the braves haul in McCann and Donaldson.

      1. Tac3….do not worry about McCann…35-years old and only played 60 plus games last year for the ‘Stros. He is a replacement player now. Suzuki was probably a better defensive catcher.

        1. I like these moves a lot for the Braves. It was smart of them to do this. They just need to add another OF then that half of the roster is set. There also has been a run on catchers early expect the Phils to sign or even trade for one very soon

            1. Writing from Marietta, GA: the local coverage suggests Camargo will become super utility guy and a cheaper version of Marwin Gonzalez. This was a pair of very smart signings.

          1. If Donaldson plays to a 6 or 7 WAR he will help make that team a WS contender. He’s a potentially HUGE upgrade for the Braves. Not happy about it.

            1. Camargo was a 4 war player playing a 3/4 of a season in 2018. Donaldson would need to revert to his MVP season numbers to move the needle significantly above what they got from the position this past season.

              I doubt he has an MVP caliber season..

  10. Saw a report today that the Phillies were planning on signing a big free agent before Harper. Wonder if that report meant to say the Braves LOL

    1. I can see that big free agent being a LH starting pitcher like Corbin or Kikuchi (who won’t be posted until Dec 5). Otherwise, I don’t know what they could mean by “big”.

      1. I was being silly on my Braves comment.
        I am wondering the same though.
        Kimbrel is declining – pass
        Corbin – would be nice
        Miller – if healthy, he will be good but I dont consider him a big signing

        TBH my expectations are very low

    2. Those Braves signings may not move the needle all that far….especially if Donaldson does not stay healthy…he has broke down the last two seasons..played only 165 games over the last two years….so they are taking a one year risk.

        1. The Donaldson signing has no effect on the Phillies because they were never interested in him. The Phillies will most likely ink Mike Moustakas if they acquire Harper instead of Machado. St. Louis is the team rocked the most by the Braves deal with Donaldson. The Cardinals have had strong interest in Donaldson for about a year now.

          1. That doesn’t make any sense. Whether the Phillies have interest in him or not is not what determines if it was a bad idea to pass on Donaldson. If it was the right move and it wasn’t made it’s a lost opportunity.

            1. Showing initiative . . . what happened last year when they showed “initiative”, no one seems happy w Santana now do they? You don’t sign players just to show an initiative, not the mark of a good GM.

          2. My point is, Braves won the NL East and now they are making moves to solidify their club. What are the Phillies doing? They’re having discussions and are rumored to have interest in players. This offseason will come and go and we will have one bargain player sign and a boat load of excuses. That’s my fear.

            1. With Klentak, the risk averse GM, at the help — everybody is sharing the same fear you have. If Klentak doesn’t come out big this offseason, he will be fired. The Phillies has bigger fish to fry and Donaldson is in the bottom of their list. The Phillies will play the Machado sweepstakes, then the Mous before they look at Donaldson.

            2. And who have made big moves yet? It’s not even December or the winter meetings . . . my god talk about impatience for no reason what so ever.

          3. Hinkie – I’m breathing a sigh of relief now that the Braves signed Donaldson. I never thought that any of the FA’s available were an upgrade over Franco, except Machado. With the Braves signing Donaldson, They’re taking an expensive gamble on his health, and now they have less money to spend on pitching.

            1. Don’t kid yourself, if he’s healthy, Donaldson is likely a HUGE upgrade over Franco – night and day better.

  11. But, Romus, he is worth the risk. Played well after trade, which was after he got healthy. And, after Machado, I would loveto have him here. Happy to take the risk.

  12. The Braves do look like they will not hesitate in pulling the trigger.
    And I guess that is something the Phillies seem to be reluctant in doing so far.
    Donaldson , if healthy, could be a what they need…but still a risk with mid-thirty guys coming off multiple in jury years.
    Same with Andrew Miller in my book….shoulder issues for hard throwers , also in their mid-thirties, is too risky.

  13. I know many of you wanted him but I wanted no part of Donaldson, I think he’s too big a risk to break down.
    The Phils continue to be in on every FA and trade possibility. They have money and are looking around at all possibilities. Agents continue to say the Phils want their player. Teams aren’t saying anything. It’s all just talk and intelligent guessing.
    The Phils will try to sign a left handed SP, Britton or Miller, MM or BH, and a SS or OF based on which one they sign. They will trade Santana for something, they would like to trade Franco and JP in the right deal, and Herrera could be traded if they sign an OF. Add a back up catcher in there too and you have a very busy off season. The problem is other teams want these guys too so you have to have plan A, B, C, and D on every piece.

  14. MM hasn’t talked much but I’m wondering if playing SS is still a requirement of his. I’d rather play him at 3B where he’s elite. Then trade JP and Medina for Segura, and sign Brantley.

    1. Playing 3B won’t be an issue if and when Manny signs with NYY. They hold all the cards IMO. I like your scenario, Murray. An IF of Machado-Segura-Kingery-Hoskins with an OF of Williams-Quinn-Brantley looks like a good lineup. With Donaldson off the board now, there is in my eyes a serious drop off in 3Bs. Moustakas is meh. A trade for Kris Bryant before Harper decides would certainly go a long way to sway him if he even needed it. I wonder how far along the Phillies are in talks with Boras re: BH. I would have to think that some parameters are being established, albeit subject to shifting as time goes on. Are they waiting for the meetings in Vegas? Just thinking out loud…

      1. Re:Boras, we all know from history that he likes to delay signing until teams bid each other up. In Harper’s case, he has few suitors because of the money he’s demanding. Since his market is slim, he is likely to steal the stage with the announcement at the Winter Meetings. Then, he’ll be able to still control attention while fielding all the bids for Kikuchi. I wouldn’t be surprised if a deal is all but done, and he is delaying finalizing until the meetings.

        1. I hope you are correct Jim, and he is coming here. I know we can be the high bidder for Kikuchi also, but we have never done well with the Japaneses players.

  15. Murray, I am sure Klentak is talking to everybody. Here is my problem with him. He has to be able to pull the trigger. He has to be aggressive. Not wait until the price comes down and sign an Arrieta. That is not pulling the trigger. Not looking at analytics and thinking Santana is a “good value”, and signing him when we already have our best player playing 1B. There are risks involved, and he has to be able to take them. I am positive there will be some “values” in January. Anybody can do that. He hasn’t shown me, as of yet, that he can put a winner on the field. He has not shown that aggressiveness, boldness or risk taking is any part of his make up.I want to see some of that.

    1. It’s not like the Phillies were in on Arrieta and wore him down. The Phillies had no interest in Arrieta at his original 6/$120M. But, when Arrieta’s price came down after no team showed interest for three months, they swept in and made him an offer. Would you really want Klentak to “be aggressive” and sign him earlier to a 6-year contract?

      1. I have to believe every big ticket FA has been in touch with the Phillies. It would be malpractice otherwise. Which means I believe if the Phillies want a player they will have said player.

        If you watch Dan O’Dowd the conversations flow between GMs and agents and general terms are usually exchanged verbally.

        There is a feeling out process however. Good GM’s need to have a 6th sense about a players seriousness about playing for him. This is a two way street of course and more like a waltz than a jitterbug in most instances.

        Sometimes the player himself knows his market and sometimes he doesn’t.

        If you’re not watching Dan O’Dowd ever chance you get you’re missing out. The guy is a wealth of knowledge and his insights last night on how he traded Mike Hampton’s massive contract was fascinating stuff.

        No one believes Dipoto can trade Cano without paying down massive amounts of the remaining $ but Dan believes the Mariners could tie Diaz and Mallex Smith to Cano and get a deal done with the Mets possibly.

        The Mets would send back Bruce, Dom Smith and Gimenez. He points out its an example trade and the money exchange is in Bruce’s $28 million and the years of control on Mallex and Diaz.

  16. As for the Harper/Machado dilemma, it all comes down to who they can sign first. While I prefer BH, I’m not letting Manny just do his thing with NYY while we stand by with our thumbs up our….

    So, it’s important that we sign the first signable player. That may very well be MM. And Hinkie comes up smelling like a rose after all.😎

    1. The Phils like Alfaro and probably won’t put lots of money or trade resources into a backup catcher. I expect them to sign some cheap veteran defensive catcher like AJ Ellis. Have to save money somewhere.

        1. My play was Harper on a long term deal and Donaldson on a pillownor short term contracr – more flexibility and no draft pick compensation. He’s worth the gamble of the doctors say he’s healthy. It will be a lot of fun watching him rip our hearts out this year.

          1. My thinking is that he won’t be healthy for the entire season. I would be stunned if he plays 100 games. How many guys his age suddenly get healthy after two years of injury? Leg injuries linger and always return. He WAS a great player and he will show glimpses of that player again but can he sustain it?

      1. I don’t either. Donaldson has previous history with the Braves GM that familiarity I’m sure played a big role in his signing. Who knows we could’ve offered him the same contract we’ll never know

        1. Wawa, the player’s visit doesn’t necessarily signify contract negotiations. Maybe the offer was already submitted and he and his GF wanted to check the place out. The agent talks dollars and years. I have good vibes on this one.

  17. Jon Morosi just posted that the Phillies and Brewers have had preliminary discussions with SF regarding MadBum. Speculation that one of either Sixto or Medina would have to be involved.

    1. Absolutely DO NOT believe that report. There is no way they are giving up Sixto or Medina for one year of Bumgarner. If they end up trading either of those guys, it has to be for a player who will be here for a while. In other words, if Klentak wouldn’t offer Sixto or Medina for two years of James Paxton, he’s certainly not doing it for one year of Bumgarner.

      1. I think Medina for one year of MadBum is fair but no way I’m giving up Sixto for him. I’d look to sell high on Medina I’m concerned about him in AA after he struggled somewhat at A+.

        1. No to Adonis Medina for one year of MadBum. Medina is not actually selling high, he will turn out just fine once he pitched in red pin stripes.

  18. Since it was brought up yesterday, here are the most similar age 24 pitching seasons to Zach Eflin’s 2018 (since 2008, minimum 120 IP):

    Eflin – 22,5%K, 6.8BB%, 1.13 HR/9
    Cole Hamels – 21.4%K, 5.8BB%, 1.11 HR/9
    Jake Odorizzi – 24.2K%, 8.2BB%, 1.07HR/9
    Max Scherzer – 23.5K%, 8.5BB%, 1.06HR/9
    Mike Foltynewicz – 21.1K%, 6.7BB%, 1.31 HR/9
    Zach Greinke – 21.5K%, 6.6BB%, .93 HR/9

    There are others who are close like Yordano Ventura and Jordan Montgomery.

    The point is Eflin just had a season that lines up favorably to what some of the better pitchers in baseball did when they were his age. It doesn’t mean that he’s definitely going to be a great pitcher, but there’s a good chance he’s at least a #2 and a guy who you’d feel good about starting in a playoff series.

    Also, our pitchers got completely screwed by our defense last year. Pivetta, VV (especially VV), and Eflin all have ERAs that don’t do justice to their seasons. Really hope that gets fixed this offseason.

    1. Agree…..also IMO, Eflin has the temperament and pitching acumen of Nola and thru his pro career has proved that he can be a 7 inning pitcher.
      And Pivetta….29th ranked in xFIP@ 3.42..ahead of Rick Porcello..which puts him in quality arm country.

      1. Eflin against Lefties OPS 842 until he develops a pitch to neutralize that he will struggle to attain #2 or even #3 status.

        Lefties against Nola OPS 559.

        The difference between the pitchers above and Eflin was they all had the repertoire needed to succeed just needed to sharpen their command. Eflin lacks the repertoire.

        1. I agree he has work to do, but so did the other pitchers above. Comparing him to Nola is a little unfair as Nola was just one of the five best pitchers in baseball.

          Age 24 against Lefties:

          Eflin – 22.9K%, 8.4BB%, 1.46HR/9
          Scherzer – 21.5K%, 10.9BB%, 1.1HR/9
          Greinke – 22.1K%, 7.1BB%, 1.1HR/9
          Hamels – 22.4K%, 5.4BB%, 2.03HR/9

          Eflin is right there as far as K and BB go. He was a little homer-prone, but nothing outrageous. Hamels had a similar issue against LHBs in his early career because his changeup wasn’t as effective against them.

          Again, he might never improve and just be a solid #3/4 starter. But he really doesn’t have that far to go and he hasn’t yet reached his prime years so there is legitimate hope for improvement.

    2. While I agree with Romus about Eflin’s temperament, Eflin still need to improve the quality of his pitches to be mentioned with Nola or to be #2/#3. Eflin’s FB lacks movement (too straight), his CU doesn’t have bite and his breaking balls are still inconsistent. But I like Eflin’s tempo and composure in the mound.

      1. Which is why he may be more highly regarded as a SP moving forward to a club willing to trade for him. Sell high. We have better young arms on the way.

    3. VV, Eflin and Pivetta all had problems with pitch selection and placement. Also, every game they were throwing from behind, right away, even though they only gave up one or two runs in 5 innings then imploded due to stress pitching. Get some offense, defense and help them on their pitches and we could be great with current 5 starters.

  19. With Suzuki and McCann signed, who’s the best FA catcher available? I would be shocked if Knapp returned. I still like his bat, but his defense is a horror story.

      1. If Knapp is on the opening roster, Klentak will not have done a very good job constructing the team. And we should all be worried.

  20. Santana has zero trade value. Absolutely zero. If CJ Cron had to be DFA’d, with similar offensive production, 4 years younger and on a 1 year contract that pays him 10% of Santana’s contract…then Santana has zero trade value. If you disagree with this, it is because you are a Phillies fan and are biased to an outcome that you want. He will either be: 1. DFA’d, 2. on our team or 3. thrown into a trade where we eat his salary. But you should have no expectations on any return for Santana

    1. Totally not true. He has no trade value at $20M but he does at a lower salary. He’s a high obp guy with some power and decent defense. I’m still confident he’ll get traded.

    2. There are oceans between Cron and Santana. It’s funny to me because I always here BA doesn’t mean anything. Santana walked 110 times and only K’d 93 times.

      What exactly was the expectation on a guy changing leagues for the first time?

      Granted I didn’t like the move because it moved Hoskins to LF but let’s not say he has no value that’s ludicrous.

    3. There is a little difference between Santana and Cron….defense.
      Cron is barely a first baseman and premaritally a DH and is more than likely an AL player.
      Santana does play a decent first base and showed he can play third in a pinch..

            1. Reminds me of when my mother was sitting for our 7 year old son and he asked what are condoms and she described condominiums to him, quick thinking.

    4. CJ Cron’s career year in 2018 is Santana down year in Philly. There is little comparison between the 2 of them beyond a similar offensive 2018 season.

      Santana has trade value as a player but I agree he will not provide any return. Any deal is to simply move his contract and open the position.

      1. Since Cleveland knows him and actually wanted him to return last year, I would first pursue some type of good will trade for Santana. Kick in $10M and see if you can get something in return, maybe a high ceiling, high risk prospect.

        In any case, I think Santana has enough value to several from among 29 teams that a trade should eventually be made. The Phillies problem is, everybody knows they’re trying to dump his salary.

      2. Again, Cron is 4 years younger, on a basically free contract ($2m), had a WRC+ of 122 vs. 109 for Santana, had an OPS that was 50! points higher and based on Fangraphs, had similarly bad defense. If you think that Santana is clearly better, then it is because you are a Phillies fan and not looking at it objectively.

        1. No, I think Santana is better because he has a track record of being better. Need to look beyond 2018 at the bigger body of work between the 2 players. As for the defense, Cron played most of his games in 2018 as the DH so any Frangraph comparison on defense is based on small sample size.

          Again, you can keep repeating the 2018 numbers but that means little. If we just looked at 2018 the Braves would be considered idiots for giving Donaldson $23m.

    5. It is correct that Santana has zero trade value – he is not worth his salary so he’s certainly not with his salary and the surrender of additional players. People often don’t seem to get this simple calculus.

  21. I’m gone for 2 weeks and the slow Mac and gun shy Klentak still didn’t do anything of significance. I read that Middleton said that they can be “$tup!d” with their spending and I can’t wait to see that happen.

    The Phillies are tied to every name available via FA or trade and I’m sure that teams and agents are using the Phillies to drive value since the Phillies are expected to be the most aggressive team this offseason.

    I like Goldy, unless he can be acquired cheap, he will just add up to the 1B clog that affects the Phillies last season. Step 1 should be to undo the Santana mistake. DFA or absorb his contract and move on.

    I also read that the Phillies is interested with Andrew Miller — he looks washed up to me. I preferred Britton or Diekman. I actually like to see Tyler Gilbert as one of the LHR — hopefully, the Phillies will not lost Gilbert in the Rule 5 draft.

    I’m 50-50 with MadBum. I don’t see his passion about winning anymore.

  22. Diaz is an interesting trade possibility, I’d say yes or no depending on what they eventually do in FA. If they do below, I’d see them coughing up a top prospect for 4 years of Diaz, at his controlled salary to go with MM&Harpers

    Possible?

    Quinn CF
    Kingery 2B
    Hoskins LF
    Goldsmith 1B
    Machado SS
    Harper RF
    Alfaro C
    Crawford 3B
    Hmmm

    1. I would love to see it but I don’t think Harper AND Machado are in their sites. Nor do I see JPC at 3b. Nor Hoskins in LF. (More likely he gets traded, which I doubt as well.) The Goldschmidt talks really, really befuddle me.

      OTOH, the trade possibilities for Diaz and/or Segura are as exciting to me as any FA talk to this point.

      1. Goldschmidt is such an upgrade offensively I feel like you can live with Rhys at LF for one more year provided his offense takes a step forward. If you sign Harper too

        Hernandez
        Goldschmidt
        Harper
        Hoskins
        Herrera
        Alfaro
        Crawford
        Kingery
        Pitcher

        would be a real upgrade. Probably still enough to go get Moustakas and play him at 3rd

        Hernandez
        Goldschmidt
        Harper
        Hoskins
        Moustakas
        Alfaro
        Herrera
        Pitcher
        Crawford

        With Kingery/Quinn/Williams/Veteran Bat on the bench. Sign Corbin and you’re looking at

        Nola/Corbin/Arrieta/Pivetta/ one of Eflin/Velasquez with the other in the pen. If you get another closer that’s a deep team.

    2. Possible? Goldschmidt and Machado and Harper? Sure, it’s possible. If there was a hostage taking of every GM in baseball other than Klentak.

      1. Well, MM and Harper are just money. Crazy money, and I heard a certain owner who fit that profile. For gold&diaz, Klentak could put himself out there and go for broke. He has trade pieces to put some prospect back into the system. It sounds crazy, but then again they have been linked to everyone who has a phone. I wouldn’t be overly shocked, but I’m not expecting that. Still, expectations are high, and rightfully so.

    3. I have a different take on closers. IMO, closers should be the last piece of the puzzle. Construct a team that’s capable of winning before a team decides on a closer.

      It doesn’t make sense for the the Phillies will give up a top arm (i.e. Sixto, Medina) to acquire a closer — might be better to just move Pivetta or Vinny in the back end of the pen and sign a capable starter to take their spot while waiting for Sixto and Medina to get ready.

      1. KK – I disagree. After signing a Superstar Harper/Machado), Closer / back end bullpen is the biggest need. At times last year the pen was brilliant, and other times, not-so-much (20 saves or holds blown).
        On Velasquez, I agree. Imagine replacing Morgan and Luis Garcia with Britton, and Velasquez.

        1. @wawa – here’s my priority list:

          1) Big time bats – Harper, Machado
          2) Proven and reliable starter – Kikuchi, Corbin, Keuchel, Eovaldi, Happ
          3) Bench (Catcher, another bat) – Marwin Gonzalez, Grandal, Ramos
          4) Bullpen – will fix itself once starters are set and add via FA (Diekman, Britton)
          5) Closer – designate Seranthony or sign a FA (Britton)

          1. KK –
            10) Harper OR Machado
            2) Corbin Kikuchi, Happ in that order, but just one.
            3) Whoever”s not starting in LF, Catcher #2, Utility infielder, some guy off the trash heap (but maybe, just maybe Bour)
            4) Bullpen – By signing Britton and moving Velasquez, we’re set.
            5) Seranthony and Britton alternate; keeping both fresh

        2. Backend bullpen pieces are tricky. The Phillies are close enough, or should be close enough to warrant one top piece in FA. I would save the rest for the deadline. Bullpen arms seem to rotate good seasons with bad quite frequently. A great example of this was Rheal Comier. All star, Near Dfa, Allstar, near dfa… look at Adam Morgan. I’m thinking Tommy Hunter will have an “UP” year this go around. I would pay the toll at the deadline to help ensure i got a reliever who was in an up year. Andrew Miller really impressed me over the last few years, but Id stay away, that kind of consistency in relief pitchers is so rare, bound to drop off.

          On that note, Riveria is most likely the best I’ll ever see in my lifetime, a freak.

        3. I think a closer is a MUST. Dominguez is at his most effective when he’s giving you 1-2 innings and then can have a night off. Put him in the Hader role next year and sign an established closer for saves.

  23. Our good friend Tommy Joseph just signed with the LG Twins of the KBO in Japan for $1M after forgoing the move there a year ago, in hopes he’d have an opportunity to catch on with an MLB team. Wish him well….

  24. Rumblings on the Twitter machine that Patrick Corbin is visiting CBP today with his girlfriend in some sort of a pitch meeting…. BRING IN THE CONSTRUCTION WORKERS!!!

    1. I wonder if they’d sign Corbin & Trade for Bumgarner? Nola/Bumgarner/Corbin/Arrieta with either Velasquez or Pivetta in the pen (I tend to think Pivetta would be the better reliever), Eflin going in the package for Bumgarner, that’s solid right there. You can resign MadBum if you want, if you don’t you’ll get a draft pick. Sign Kimbrel/Britton and you’re then at

      Nola/Bumgarner/Corbin/Arrieta/Velasquez

      Pivetta
      Morgan
      Ramos
      Neris
      Dominguez
      Hunter
      Neshak
      Kimbrell/Britton

      very deep pitching staff. You could also spread money around the outfield and infield. Either sign Harper/Machado or pursue lesser upgrades like Pollock, Brantley, Moustakas, etc. Plenty of flexibility left to do whatever the Phillies want to do.

    2. I thought you might be trolling, but it is true per “twitter”

      Would be nice to hear today, I just hope the FO can keep it to manageable contracts. At age 29, what type of deal is he projected to get?

    3. My take is that they are going hard after Corbin NOW, then come Dec 5 when Kikuchi becomes available and if Corbin has said “no thanks”, they go for Hinkie’s sushi chef plan.

  25. Per CSN, sounds like Corbin came and left. Heart tells me we have a fighting chance vs the Yankees, but ultimately I see him signing with the Yankees.

    He is from Upstate NY, Rochester. Some people upstate hate nyc living, hopefully Corbin is one of them. If he was a huge yanks fan growing up, it makes to much sense for him to sign if the money is comparable, even if not, yanks are light years ahead of Phils rebuild. This feels like lebrons meeting with the Sixers.

    1. Tac3,…agree….holiday window shopping for Corbin…perhaps he can up the ante from the Yankees.
      Apparently all of the FA roads eventually go thru NYC.

      1. I’d be shocked if he passes up the opportunity in NY. To return home, to be the key piece that helps bump your hometown team past the hated redsoxs… all while getting paid insane money regardless… I can’t see him passing that up, if he does, I seriously question “why”? To be in the spotlight of a yanks/Red Sox playoff battle … I’ve jealous. That is just about the pinnacle of the baseball world. He is a yankee imo, just bidding time, raising his price to pay for that NYC lifestyle. I’m not getting my hopes up.

        1. Tac3…maybe Matt K will play hardball poker with the Yankees.
          Make the offer high end approaching $30M AAV but for only 4 years…makes the Yankees lengthen the contract offer, while also still have them in the mid-to-high $20Ms for pay out.

          1. Klentak has access to the bankroll to due that with.
            I’m a little behind on the SP salary/contract ranges. Lately. Sounds like Greinke hit the ceiling for many teams. With that, I’ve seen estimates In the range of 27.5 mil AAV for CorbiN. The number of years is always the kicker, stupid money goes out to 6 for Corbin. Most are hoping 4, but 5 would make Corbin think twice. 4 years with a high payout is fighting dirty Romus, I like the thinking there. Will see, smart money has him in NYC, but I hear there is stupid money in these parts

            1. He turns 30 next season, so getting five or six years for a pitcher at that age is a difficult proposition for his agent. Of course, that is what he wants but he may have to settle for a little less AAV to get that length.

              Now offering short and high is something most teams probably will not do, and really do not expect Matt Klentak to ever do that sort of thing…..so probably just a moot point.

            2. Otero…whoa…I did not even check Brooks on Corbin, since I thought the Phillies were not in the picture anyways, to see that. That would be a red-flag in any GMs book I’d think.

        2. Would be a nice pick up, but he has Yankee written all over him. If he already left I’d say he was just doing us a Lebron LOL

          1. Impossible to know exactly where they are in the negotiating process. A short stay may mean just as much as him coming to visit at all. That’s not insignificant. Lebron sent his people to sit down with the 76ers….and in LA. At least Corbin showed up himself, with his girlfriend, which also isn’t insignificant.

  26. Looks like Donaldson’s signing did have some to do with his former GM now the Braves GM, there was that familiarity ..and the right price…highest one year contract in MLB history…..Clemons in 2005 $28M was prorated after he reported in June that year.

  27. I Corbin is the first of several FA’s who are going to use the Phillies to try to drive up the offer from the team(s) they really WANT to go to. Not saying the Phillies don’t blow someone away and get them, I just don’t think they’re the #1 choice for many(maybe any) of the top FA’s available.

    1. Like to see what Farhan Zaidi is asking for Bumgarner.
      He does not want to offer any triple digit extensions…so he may take a smaller return.

  28. If the Phillies sign Marwin Gonzalez, I would be okay with signing Mike Moustakas. That way, we would have some depth on the left side. Otherwise, they should pursue a 3b by trade. The winter meetings will be crazy with names flying up and down the Vegas strip. I think the Franco to SD trade is merely waiting to be finalized once a new 3b has been acquired.

  29. Corbin is 29 already so there won’t be a deal offered longer than 4 years with an option based on the number of starts he makes. I could see them offering 4/$110M with an option year. Let the Yanks pay up if they want him.

    1. A mid-thirties hard-throwing reliever guy with shoulder issues late last season….why did I not think that Klentak would not be in on him.
      Just as Neshek and Hunter made their DL stints last year …..time for the next reliever to come on the scene and put the medical staff to the test.

  30. This FA class has been hyped for a good while, but I will say, it makes me wish we had more homegrown talent that is initiated and ready for a playoff run. A lot of question marks from the results of a 4 year rebuild, and not a lot of answers. This is concerning because The vast majority of these FA come with red flags that could hurt the teams flexibility to go in another direction. It is a lot easier to dump a AAAA player than a bad contract. Even Harper and MM have red flags. I feel like this team is going to be built through FA even though they’ve been rebuilding for years. Minus Nola, it’s a crab shoot. I expected a little more by now, mainly Franco and Crawford solidified, and probably Kingery after the historic contract. I have more faith in our SP than most, but even there id like to have VV up to his projections.

    Nothing like a wet blanket to throw on the hype, but it’s a little alarming how well this offseason could go in terms of spendingbstupid money … only to have it turn out to be stupid money that other GMs won’t touch.

    Heck, while we are at it, I’d like to have known by now that Klentak was for real.

    Very crazy how volatile this “rebuild” is at this point of the juncture. I have faith, but a twist of bad luck could really derail this thing.

      1. Ha, please do so, but I’m as optimistic as they come. I just remember too much 🙂 I will say I’m a bit surprised Franco isn’t more established, as well as Crawford. If money can buy their way out of it he rebuild world so be it.

  31. Not sure if it’s accurate but I saw a tweet with the framework for a Cano trade.
    Bruce and top ten Mets prospect to Mariners for Cano and Diaz

    Ok Klentak – get off your bottom!! Division rivals are making moves

  32. Doesn’t adding Cano and his contract dump lessen significantly the value of Diaz? I don’t see Seattle doing that. Who is out there who can be a traded for 3B? I know Moustakas as a FA, but if the assumption is that Franco gets moved, we need someone to play 3B. I am not on board with the Santana idea. I don’t think the team thinks they are improving by putting JP there. Bohm may be ready in 2 years or maybe never. 2B are a dime a dozen, and there are some SS options, JP may be 1 of the options, but not a lot at the hot corner.

    1. Matt13…third base options….not many available for the getting…or just too expensive in return value
      –Maybe Profar from the Rangers….but he did not measure well defensively.
      –Sanchez of the WSox?…great defense…bat is suspect.
      –Seager of the Mariners..great defense also….bat is not even Franco’s.
      –Duffy of the Rays….defense and offense are a little above average.
      All the good ones are just too difficult to pry away from their teams.

  33. An exciting story on how the Phillies are driving the whole market. Take a few minutes to read it. Here are the first three paragraphs to get you psyched:

    The Phillies are in on Bryce Harper and Manny Machado and might sign both, while thinking two years down the road about Millville, NJ’s, favorite son, Mike Trout, and his free agency.

    The Phillies hosted Patrick Corbin for a visit Tuesday at Citizens Bank Park. They are looking at the top of the lefty relief market with Zach Britton and Andrew Miller. They reached out to Arizona about Paul Goldschmidt.

    “I can never remember a winter in which one team is the linchpin more than Philly is now,” a veteran GM said. “Maybe the Yankees in some free-spending period, but maybe not even them.”

    1. Hinkie, why does this make me so leery that Agents are using us to get better deals from the teams their players really want to play for? Phily born and bred cynicism? Or do the other top teams have GMs that make me much more confident than Klentak does? Sure, we may set the market, but that does not mean that we get the player. I can easily see us being the 2d or 3rd choice all the way down the line. I need another pep talk from you!

      1. Whether it takes a week or a month, the Philllies will definitely sign one of MM or BH. I’ve been guaranteeing this forever. I used to believe Machado was a lock. Unfortunately, that went sideways after he made his “Johnny Hustle” comments. It’s looking like Harper, a LHSP, a LHRP, and a couple of trades for now … and then wait two more years for Mike Trout !!!

  34. Hinkie, I would love to get Corbin, but he is going to get 6 years. Is MacPhail signing off on that? I would, but it is not my $, and I like Happ as Plan B. Romus, I agree about 3B. That is why I always wanted Machado to play there, a perfect fit, and I can live with the occasional lack of hustle, because he is a Gold Glove 3B. Not so at SS, but I put up with it for his bat. I liked the risk of Donaldson, but that ship has sailed.Don’t forget, that when we make our list of priorities, Defense has to be up there. Santana at 3B does not do it for me. There are a lot of pieces to this puzzle, and I wish Klentak started filling some in.

      1. Agreed – not going into his age 29 season – he just doesn’t have a long enough and stellar enough track record to warrant that commitment (although I love the idea of getting him). They might, however, do a 6th year vesting option with a reasonable buy-out figure ($10 m?).

  35. Hinkie, I read the NY paper story that you linked. The end of it was that we “seem, at a minimum, destined to get a top position player, a top SP, and a top RP.” I can’t wait!

  36. At a point where Seattle appears to be entertaining the idea of taking Jacoby Ellsbury as part of a deal to unload Robinson Cano, one wonders if the Phils should enter the bidding with what I consider a less cumbersome low ball offer. 5 years of 36 year old Cano @ $24 M is a lot of salary to take on, particularly as Cano draws closer to 40.

    It would take some incentives and and salary going back but I think this is a deal I could stomach.

    to the Phils –

    Cano and RHP Edwin Diaz and LHP James Pazos

    to the Mariners –

    Hernandez, Santana, Knapp and Arano

    The Phils by this trade stay out of this year’s free agent market for relievers by addressing their needs for a closer and a lefty arm. Hoskins moves back to 1B and LF opens up for another move. Kingery is blocked at 2B which is a downside. Cano’s burdensome contract is lightened by the $ saved, particularly with Santana but also Hernandez through arbitration. If the Phils could plug in Tommy Hunter for Arano this deal is less costly but a team in rebuild as Seattle is could insist on 2 young players coming back for the prime talent (Diaz) they’re losing.

    Seattle has Ryon Healy penciled in at 1B but he can DH and has filled this role. The Mariners traded Zunino and is short at catching. Arano is a light effort to address their thinned out bullpen.

    The Mets apparently are in discussion with Seattle for Cano with Jay Bruce being the center piece being discussed. The M’s presumably would need to ante up a lot for the frugal Mets to bite. The Phils could afford Cano while giving their bullpen a boost. With this trade, the Phils could still spring for Machado OR Harper, a starting pitcher, a catcher and infielder/outfielder depending on the Machado/Harper outcome.

    1. Cano could play 3b, then become a utility player in later years. If he can sustain his bat, it might be a value. But let’s say he and Santana are a wash in terms of impact and mutual salary dumpage. So then Diaz and Pazos for what? Cesar, Knapp and Arano? DiPoto says click. Offer Odubel and your closer. Add Eflin and Medina, ask for Segura, and it’s a done deal.

        1. I’ve said it before. I’ll say it again. The Phillies are going to be aggressive this winter, but they are not going to be reckless because their end game is Mike Trout in two years. That Cano contract will only impede their end game.

          1. Actually I agree. My proposal above is merely a spitballing idea from Fighterflea’s post. I just love hot stove talk.

            One thing, however. I think the Phillies bullpen needs should be addressed through trades. The FA reliever market leaves me either cold or wary. Seems the better ones crested 3 years ago.

      1. Let’s just stay focused on what our needs are. Cano does nothing for us and has way too many years for a guy his age. No thanks.

  37. Cano is shot and to even discuss paying that kind of money for someone who maybe has one good year left. If you contemplated Cano you might as well talk about Danny Murphy —who is a far better hitter and can also no longer field any position – just like Cano. And he is grillions $$ cheaper. You could sign him for 2 years in what you pay Cano for one.

    1. Kind of off the wall commentary. Cano,who has been an All Star 7 of the last 9 years and as recently as 2017, has a career OPS of .848 which is higher than the career figure of any Phil but Hoskins. Cano’s OPS for 2018 was .845 so he’s performing near his career average.

      Cano is not a panacea but this move — unlike a free agent signing of Murphy or anyone else — helps undo the unwise signing of Santana and accomplishes other things as well. By sending over $ 46 M in salary obligations to Seattle, the salary obligation for Cano over 5 years is less than $ 75 M. If you have cost controlled relievers like Diaz and Pazos, you’re probably saving upwards of $ 40 M in free agent relief pitching costs. Use the low figure and you’re burdening the payroll $ 35 M for Cano over 5 years. That’s roughly 1 WAR a year. Cano has not been less than a 3 WAR player for any season over the last 10 years.

      Posters here advocate for dynamic off-season action but prefer a souffle that doesn’t involve breaking eggs. This board is sometimes quite disappointing in its commentary.

      1. Fighterflea, you make a fair point about our bias expectations as Phillies fans, looking to give up our refuse for gold. End of the day, the main reason I would not exchange Cano for Santana is it hardly seems worth trading a positional block for an albatross contract. But your idea was interesting. I would rather pay half of Santana’s contract, add Odubel and Medina, and get Diaz and Segura in return. Let Seattle dump Cano on someone else.

        1. I have to agree 8mark FF makes an excellent case for someone else to take Cano but for us you sum it up nicely he’s not a fit because ultimately he is going to lose defensive value in the near term even if his offensive production holds so a move to 1B or DH is likely.

      2. Cano …with all the trimmings like Diaz and Pazos is really interesting.
        Though not sure Dipoto will settle entirely for a package of Santana, Knapp, Arano and Cesar…..he may also want a starting pitcher as added value in there somewhere…most GMs do.

  38. Cano likely to end up in NY for a return visit – provided Seattle eats alot of money – as reported in Athletic this morning. Or they take on bad contract that Yanks already have with Ellsbury (who has no trade contract)…..Cano’s contract, despite his production, is an albatross contract.

  39. If Goldschmidt with his gold glove and elite bat agreed to a sign and trade – after all, the Phillies are now MLB’s treasure chest, so long as he’s not averse to this area – I would offer Hoskins, Medina and a young OF like Haseley to AZ.

    1. Trades like this remind me of the Padres. Ship out young budding players and get guys in their 30s with huge salaries. No thanks. In a year or two Hoskins should be better than Goldschmidt anyway and much cheaper. Hoskins had a really decent second year with the league making adjustments to him – he was a very good offensive player and he should only get better. I wouldn’t trade him for Goldschmidt straight up, let alone throw in Haseley and Medina. No way.

      1. With all the high hopes of getting multiple superstars on this team at once, you are going to need good young talent, at a below market price to balance the books. Hoskins “Should” be that player. Hopefully Kingery is also that player. It would be nice to have Goldschmidt but not at the price of hoskins. Dbacks need to check themselves 🙂

        I wouldn’t be so quick to trade Medina as well, not with Sixto’s health up in the air. I’m assuming many of us are offering Medina (#2), becuase they value Sixto (#1) higher, but Medina could potential leap frog Sixto based on health vs talent. Not to mention, SP spots sound like they are filling up, so the prospect with the faster track might get that 5th spot, once this offseason shakes out.

      2. Agree with catch. Goldschmidt is ~6 years older than Hoskins. I’d rather hold on to a younger, cheaper Hoskins. When you kick in Medina (who I think is going to be a star/#2 SP for the Phillies at minimum salary for 6 years) it doesn’t make much sense.
        I would be in favor of renting Goldschmidt for 2019 if the price was right. Maybe something like DLS, Nick Williams, and a lottery ticket. I was going to include Eflin, but I think I’d rather use Eflin as the headliner in a deal for a young, controllable closer (Edwin Diaz) or LHR (Jose Alvarado).

    2. @8mark – you still can’t wait to trade Medina are you? Nola and Hoskins should be part of the core and Goldy will not play as 30 yo forever — he’s on the downside of his career so why would trade a potential offensive cornerstone in Hoskins and potential future productive pieces in Medina and Haseley for a Goldy who the Phillies will pay a big amount of $$ but may not be getting the same production anymore. Nothing about this trade make sense.

  40. 11 days to Vegas. I would think (hope) a trade and a signing would happen before then. Can’t see ALL this supposed activity being squeezed in a 4 day period.

      1. Simple.

        Sign Harper, Machado & Happ then move on in FA. Trade Hernandez, Herrera, and Santana; get prospects and bullpen arms. Put Quinn in center and Kingery at 2B. Move Hoskins to 1B. Platoon Williams and Altherr in LF with Knapp and Cozens on bench. Franco can play 3B with Crawford. Starting pitchers will be much better with offense.

  41. So what’s the consensus on the MLB proposed trade of one year of Madbum to Phils for Medina and Jo Jo? I think I would have to do it. He would give us a solid #2 starter, a lefty, and he might agree to an extension as well. And he would add a pinch hitter too.

    1. Murray … not sure who you saw propose that trade. My guess is he was a Giants employee/fan. Andy MacPhail would walk Matt Klentak out of the building and change the locks if Klentak pulled the trigger on that.

      1. Just remember, “prospects get GMs fired”. There’s no such thing as a sure fire prospect. Look at Buxton. We all hope, me included, that Medina and Jo Jo will be long time solid major league starters but who knows.
        Btw, the article was on MLB.com as part of an article called “5 trades that would make sense”. It’s just a writer filling space. The same article had us trading Santana for Ellsbury (rediculous) so take it for what it is worth.

        1. Murray … Consider what the Astros gave up for 2.5 years of Justin Verlander. Daz Cameron and Franklin Perez were in the 6-10 range of Houston prospects, and they were in the lower levels of the Astros system. Medina and Romero are each top 5 prospects who could be throwing at CBP in 2019. That’s way too much for one year of MadBum (who BTW is nowhere close to the same pitcher he was a couple/few seasons ago).

    2. @Murray – i disagree with you on the MadBum trade. I agree with HInkie that Medina and JoJo are close in helping the Phillies and that MadBum is no longer the same player he was. I posted earlier that I don’t see any hunger in MadBum anymore. If Jhailyn + Ranger for MadBum — maybe, I can consider that —- and the SFG can have Jose Gomez too — he’s MLB’s perennial Top 20 prospect.

  42. The fact that there has been no Phillies activity leads me to believe that Klentak is not planning on a major overhaul of the roster. Harper, Corbin, and Britton, and moving Velasquez to the bullpen would satisfy me. I expect a lot of improvement from Kingery, Quinn, Seranthony, Arano, and Crawford. Then there is Franco. Some of you hate him, but I think that if he stays the same, he’s a pretty good 6 hole batter. The rest, Santana, Hernandez, and possibly Herrera could be traded for prospects or Int’l money.

    1. Franco seems to have that cloud of dissapointment over him. To me, he is a great piece to have when you sign harper, and trade Santana & Hernadez. Young, and cheap, and cant’ command a 25mil a year salary. He is a role player, that will compliment the core of Hoskins, Harper, and …. (fill in the blank). If you are not going to sign both Harper and Machado, then you I say you keep Franco, and let Bohm take it from him. If Crawford survives the offseason, will see how he, kingery, and franco fit together. A lot of trade rumors going around, so who knows who is left. Personally I still want Ramos on the team to balance Alfaro.

      1. “I’m not trying to be negative but I don’t see Klentak making any significant deals.”
        Hah😆, classic line. If Klentak doesn’t make any significant deals, let’s all close up the tent and go home. Yeesh!

  43. CSN has the Phils and Indians sounding like dance partners again. Their surplus of SP for our surplus of OF. 2 of Herrera, Williams,and Altherr a pitching prospect &VV for one of Carrasco, Kluber, or Bauer. Carrasco would be nice, and Kluber is one of my favorite pitchers in the league. I’d take ether of those two, if you are adding Harper… and we can of course schlep by until Trout joins the outfield!

    Nola, Carrasco/Kluber, Arrieta, Eichoff, and Pivetta with Medina/Sixto pushing those guys.

    So Kluber or Carrasco for Williams, Altherr, VV and Saurez. PLus you’d have to assume this gets heldup until Harper signs.

    1. I actually think they may trade for a SP as well as buy another off the market. I do like how we match up with Cleveland, especially if they consider taking Santana back.

      1. Why isn’t he a good fit?
        A buddy of mine played with him when he was with Arizona and said he was a dolt then however has kept in touch with him and said he’s grown up a lot. I’m assuming you mean his off the field make up. I’d prefer him over Kluber, just my personal opinion.

        1. Besides the fact that Bauer is a “dolt”, he’s a RHP. The Phillies should look to upgrade their rotation with a lefty (Corbin, Happ, Kikuchi).

          1. I don’t care if you throw with your foot, if you post an ERA under 3 while striking out a ton in the AL, I’ll take it. And if he’s grown up, which I’ve heard (I’m assuming my buddy is correct) then he’s a fit. Not to mention he’s on the right side of 30.

            1. Good point. He’s been very good. I just prefer to upgrade with a LHP. If they can sign Corbin for just money, I’d prefer that.

            2. Don’t get me wrong, I would love to get a solid LHP in the rotation as well . . . but if the RHP is a top of the rotation guy i’m fine w that too. In no way to I think we trade for him tho but i’d def take him, again I hear your point tho.

      2. Carrasco is 32 with 5 years of consistency behind him. I would take him from among him, Kluber and Bauer. Contractually, they are all fairly cheap. CC gets <$10M each of the next 2 years, the second of which is an option year. Then we can still sign a FA like Corbin. I only want Nola, Arrieta and Pivetta as returning SPs. We need 2 new arms, IMO.

        1. Oh btw, I saw somewhere that Kikuchi was in Anaheim recently taking in a Ducks game. I tend not to read too much into such things BUT Anaheim? Forget about him coming here. What’s he doing, bunking up with Ohtani?

    2. I’ll say this, it would be easier to trade OFs before you sign a FA than after but leverage will be applied against us in either situation. If we have too many OFs, teams will reduce their offer, if we trade and then need an OF, the FA raises the price. It’s why you need a good GM and I have no faith in Klentak. He needs to show me something.

  44. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Phils move on the pitching market early this off-season realizing that the Machado and Harper narratives may be slow in unwinding. I think about the moves the Phils would be likely to make IF they signed either Harper or Machado.

    Do they unload Odubel if they sign Harper? Harper, Hoskins, Herrera, Quinn, Williams, Altherr seems like an overfilled OF.

    The same in the IF if they sign Machado. Santana, Hernandez, Kingery, Machado, Crawford, Franco.

    If the big signings occur in January, does that allow time for the follow-on moves? Is there a market with teams that are disappointed suitors for either Harper of Machado? Are the Phils to be blamed if they’re unwilling to wait until January to spend their “crazy money?” A Plan B for a team losing out on Harper could be Brantley, Pollock, McCutchen, Adam Jones. I’m not sure what Plan B behind Machado would be, with Donaldson signed. More questions than answers at this point, per usual.

    1. I wouldn’t be surprised if the top players are telling the phillies to “show me” first. If we all have this many questions, I’m assuming the players have at least have as many. NYY opportunity seems to be ideal. The only hesitation is to have the redsoxs in your division. NL east seems a bit easier ticket into the playoffs consistently if this rebuild is done right

      Word is, that Brantley has an offer on the table from the Phillies. My money has the phillies on making a trade first, signing other FA before Harper finally inks the contract.

    1. I would think the players union factors strongly into this offseason with the potential for historic contracts from Harper/MM. once they sign, they set the market for the rest of the league, so I’m sure they have pressure to get “X” amount. Nothing none of us haven’t heard before. I do think part of the current holdup is to try and restore MM AAV. I think he lost significant money, somewhere in the neighborhood of 25-50mil of his contract. Everyone is on hold from Mannys lazy attitude. Im sure his deal effects harpers as well. Will just have to wait … some more

      Once they do sign, I expect a flood of signings, very fast moment on other key FA.

      For Corbin, I can see him also in the show me mode, since you are basically asking him to not sign with his chikdhood fav team , that happens to be loaded with talent and money.

    2. Wawa, I tend to agree with Jim P’s notion that the Harper deal is for all intents and purposes done and waiting to be announced in Las Vegas. You’ll be there, right. We expect a report.

      1. I’ll tell you what, the more I think about it, the more I love the idea of having Bryce Harper on this team. There is some risk with him for sure, but, damn, there’s also the real possibility that he goes on a 4 or 5 year offensive tear for the ages – like 45-50 homer years with .950 or more OPS every year – just a total beast and he’s at the very prime of his career.

        1. Wars/Catch – I can buy that, even if it is optimistic. When the NYPost is saying that even George Steinbrenner would be playing second fiddle to Middleton’s crazy money … it gives the Delayed Vegas announcement a fair amount of traction.

          I’ll take Harper, but like I said earlier, he has red flags too. If he can live close to his best campaign, he’ll be worth it.

          I don’t see Corbin a Phillie, the same way we can’t see Trout a Yankee in 2 years.

  45. 8mark, a rebuilding team has less need for a strong closer since there aren’t as many victories to seal. And a team seeking to tear down is hamstrung by the Cano and King Felix contracts. If you can’t move either, then at best you have half of a tear down. Ever look at a house that was a 1/2 tear down?

    Segura has a no trade clause. DiPoto is in a box. If you offer him a way out, you seek a favorable return. Any trade involving Cano — and I’ve already said I like Cano — involves some form of sacrifice. That stems from the original deal Cano signed.

    1. I can see NYY take Cano back as a super utility guy/DH. Better fits their roster especially if Ellsbury agrees to go to Seattle. It makes for a more sensible wash between the two teams. I just can’t see getting much for Diaz unless you deal him separately. From the other side, yeah if I can give up less in talent and have the payroll space. But in the Phillies case, it seems it would be a waste of the room we’ve been anticipating for so long, for an aging player who doesn’t clearly fit the roster.

      1. 8mark, if somehow the Phils whiff on Harper and Machado, you’d be singing a different tune. Cano would immediately become the Phils’ 2nd best bat and you’d be fortunate if they added (with Cano) Brantley and re-signed Ramos. Cano would become the #3 bat in the order. Cano signals a team not chasing the horizon and probably enhances Philly as a destination for a free agent with options and in ‘win now’ mode.

        Even signing Machado or Harper, Cano enhances the order and doesn’t tip the budget over.

        Cano’s contract would be problematic for a team intent on signing both Harper and Machado. I’ve never thought that was a viable option for the Phils. I agree with the poster above that Trout remains ever in the back of the minds of the Philly front office.

        Cano plus Harchado (= Harper or Machado, not both) plus Trout minus Santana is doable from 2021 forward with Arrieta coming off the books after 2020. The Phils structure the Trout deal with a balloon payment in 2021 and smaller payments in 2022 and 2023. Blowing through the luxury tax threshold in 2021 is not a problem if not repeated in the following years. After 2023, the Cano contract is gone.

        1. FF, Mark Feinsand of MLB came up with 5 trade possibilities for Cano. Here’s the one with the Phillies: Cano plus cash considerations for Santana, Tommy Hunter and Jojo Romero.

          To your first sentence and my singing a different tune should the Phillies swing and miss on either big FA, that will present a whole other set of issues which acquiring Cano will never resolve. Again, my hunch is Harper/Boras have agreed to at least a baseline offer which no other interested team will want to touch as a baseline. And the announcement will be made in Las Vegas in roughly 10-12 days.

  46. Rosenthal says the Phillies have a lot to get done:

    * Harper or Machado
    * FA LHR (Britton or Miller)
    * Deal one of their SP’s (VV, Pivetta, or Eflin)
    * Trade Carlos Santana and CeHe
    * Replace Franco with MM or Mike Moustakas
    * Acquire a defense-first SS to compete with JPC ((Adeiny Hechavarria? Jose Iglesias? FREDDY GALVIS?)
    * Revamp the OF (Harper in RF, Quinn in CF, Odubel or Williams in LF)

    “Scott Boras, the agent for Harper, Britton and Moustakas, among others, routinely proceeds at his own pace, without regard to the calendar. But the sheer volume of moves the Phillies must make leaves them no room to dawdle”.

    1. First strike – sign Garrett Richards yesterday!
      Next, trade for a CLE SP and sign Corbin.
      Then trade for Diaz (and preferably Segura if he waives his no trade).

      That lines us up well heading into the winter meetings….

      1. ….where we announce Bryce Harper in red pinstripes, trade Franco and Eflin to SD for Strahm and Hedges after Boras’ other boy Moustakas is signed relatively cheap (3 years @$40M) and Marwin is reeled in (4 years @$46M). And finally, we all love Matt Klentak.

    2. Interesting …Ken Rosenthal must be reading PhuturePhillies postings of late.
      Now if only Matt Klentak would read this blog on a few occasions.

    3. Seriously, let’s hope a lot of handshake deals are in place, as we have to believe with all this smoke. Hopefully Klentak has his cell phone fully charged

        1. Early results indicate he better be, i am starting to feel his hot seat from here. I’m sure McPhail is assisting as well, call in favors for teams to hold up signings etc. It’s like a game of cat and mouse, just replace the cat with an elephant, as everyone knows the Phillies plans by now

          1. Agreed that Klentak is a on a serious hot seat this year. He must have a good offseason and promising season to keep his job – it’s show time Matt and don’t think he isn’t on the clock right now.

            1. But I’m sure he’s a better boot licker than Ron Hextall – the reaction that Flyers management had to that guy is staggering – telling the public he was unyielding – wow – defying the bosses just because they want to win games sooner rather than later. It’s the same sort of tunnel vision that lost Sam Hinkie his job.

  47. Starting pitchers: Aaron Nola, Jake Arrieta, Patrick Corbin, Carlos Corrasco, Nick Pivetta

    Bullpen: Vince Velasquez, Edwin Diaz, Hector Neris, Seranthony Dominguez, Victor Arano, Pat Neshek, Matt Strahm, Andrew Miller

    Catchers: Jorge Alfaro, Austin Hedges

    Infield: Rhys Hoskins, Scott Kingery, Jean Segura, Mike Moustakas, JP Crawford

    Outfield: Bryce Harper, Roman Quinn, Nick Williams, Aaron Altherr

    Super U: Marwin Gonzalez

        1. Yeah..I also want Hedges in Philly….DRS was a positive 12…Alf’s was zero….and Knapp’s a negative 9
          He would be a real plus overall to pitching and defensive metrics.

          1. I think the Phils will get a new back up catcher but I don’t think they’ll give up resources (Franco) to do it, for a back up catcher. They want Alfaro to start.

            1. Back-up catchers can give you anywhere from 30 to 40% playing time thru a season..so whoever they get…better be a decent defender back there.
              Last year it was Alf-60%, Knapp-27% and Ramos-13%…all three combined ended up in the negative DRS..

  48. Mets also want Tatis, Jr., so that is not happening. I agree with Rosenthal, there needs to be some work done before the Major stuff, and no time like the present. I also agree with him that there is a lot to do. I am hoping Klentak has been hiding his Dartmouth education from us, and we will see how smart he is very shortly!

      1. No surprise if Corbin signs with NYY. He grew up a fan, lives in NY and they need/want him. Opens up Happ for Phillies and maybe Gray.

  49. Denny, a question on Gray? Teams like him because his numbers were good away from Yankee Stadium. Wouldn’t he have the same problems at CBP?

  50. Not to unnecessarily alarm, but has anyone gotten the scuttlebutt on rumored 3-way talks between Phillies, Seattle and Cleveland?

    1. 8mark….nada.
      It’s no secret that the Cleveland Indians are working feverishly this offseason to achieve a greater degree of payroll flexibility while still remaining a title threat in the AL…..I think they want to move Trevor Bauer, which on the face makekes no sense since he is probably goin to get $10/11M AAV this year under arbitration and still controlled for awhile.
      But if the Phillies can get him in the deal, why not …he is 28 next season so who knows. Of course, he may not face Alex Bregman in their rivalry as a Phillies unless the ‘Stros play them next season.

    2. 8 mark, what could that trade look like?

      to the Indians:
      Alex Colome (Sea.)
      Carlos Santana (Phi.)
      Odubel Herrera (Phi.)
      JoJo Romero (Phi.)

      to the Mariners:
      Yonder Alonso (Cle.)
      Cesar Hernandez (Phi.)
      Zach Eflin (Phi.)
      Andrew Knapp (Phi.)

      to the Phils:
      Trevor Bauer (Cle.)
      Rpbinson Cano (Sea.)
      Edwin Diaz (Sea.)

      1. Well, considering you have us getting 3 players with significant value and we’re giving up 5, but Cano would have to have mucho cash attached to him. Knapp is a throw in, CeHe has little but is perfect for a larger deal like this.

  51. There seems to be a real match up there even without Santana in the deal. But, if Tito still likes him, and we pay a good chunk of his salary, and add Doobie or Nick Williams and a young Pitcher, we should be able to get one of the SPs. We should have the makings of a deal even without Santana. And, on the Cleveland front, what is the status of Danny Salazar?

  52. Cervelli is now on the trade market. He would make an excellent partner to Alfaro for a year. It might not cost much more than Knapp.

    1. At the peak of his career he was an excellent defensive catcher according to Fangraphs…these last two years he has declined (DRS negative 6 for 2017 and 2018)…probably age related now entering his age33 season in 2019..
      He still may be a better alternative defensively than Andrew Knapp, if he is used in a limited role and can avoid wear and fatigue thru a season.

      1. believe he has had some concussions issue as well, but i like him and he seems to have some fire to him, which this team could use.

        1. I do like Cervelli little more than Russell Martin.
          But really prefer the defensive Austin Hedges, but that would have to be in a trade, and now there are other teams that are trying to pry him from the Padres.

  53. Is today the day? Sooner or later the Phillies will announce something that we can sink our teeth into. For the past month, I’ve checked this site and others, more than 10 times a day, hoping for something, anything to give me optimism.

    1. Wawa… not that im a drugie … but I’d assume this is what crack is like … checking all theses sites with no fix … so we keep checking … and checking

  54. Shockers Trivia….almost half their team was selected in the 2018 MLB Draft:
    Phillies, with the Padres and White Sox nab two each of the twelve.
    2018 Wichita State MLB Draft Picks
    Player Round Pick Team
    Alec Bohm 1st 3rd Phillies
    Greyson Jenista 2nd 49th Braves
    Codi Heuer 6th 168th White Sox
    Gunnar Troutwine 9th 258th White Sox
    Chandler Sanburn 9th 269th Rangers
    Dayton Dugas 16th 465th Tigers
    Keylan Killgore 17th 497th Phillies
    Trey Vickers 30th 911th Nationals
    Cody Tyler 32nd 951st Padres
    Luke Ritter 37th 1,114th Twins
    Jake Plastiak (Signee) 28th 831st Padres
    Connery Peters (Signee) 38th 1,154th Dodgers

  55. I finally read the entire Rosenthal article in The Athletic. I agree completely with his assessment of what needs to be done. Trade Cesar, trade Freddy, trade one of the SPs for a hitter, sign one of MM or Harper and Corbin and Miller or Britton. All good, Doobie to LF to compete with Nick Williams, trade Santana so Rhys moves to 1st. What worries me, however, besides my usual worry that Klentak’s risk averse nature will not make him capable of doing everything necessary, is Rosenthal’s statement that “industry sources indicate that some of the Phillies’ partners may not be as anxious as John Middleton to throw around hundreds of Millions.” I don’t know how good his sources are, but Middleton is the Managing Partner of a Limited Partnership, giving him pretty much untempered authority. But, more than that, I believe the next biggest shareholder is the young Buck family member, who I thought was very close with Middleton, and on board with winning. I hope Rosenthal’s “sources” are wrong. Having a risk averse, very cautious GM, and a plodding team President is bad enough, but if people are capable of reignimg in Middleton, this whole thing will be a disaster.

  56. I am spending too much time reading articles while waiting for something to happen! MLBTR chat yesterday, posits a deal with the Indians. Doobie, SerAnthony, Eflin and Medina for Bauer. The writer thinks that would be a really good deal. I think it is a terrible one. Of the 3 SPs from Cleveland, Bauer is 3rd on my list, and I want no part of that deal.

  57. John Heyman (after talking to many MLB execs) places odds on who signs Machado and Harper:

    1 to 5 odds Phillies sign one of the two
    10 to 1 odds Phillies sign both (no other club has odds to sign both)

    even money Yankees sign one
    5 to 1 Nationals sign one
    10 to 1 Cardinals sign one
    15 to 1 CWS sign one
    20 to 1 Cubs sign one
    25 to 1 Mets sign one
    30 to 1 Giants sign one
    30 to 1 LAD sign one
    40 to 1 Astros sign one
    17 to 1 the field signs one

    https://fancredsports.com/articles/inside-baseball-phillies-yankees-lead-10-contend

  58. Call me crazy, but I still would love to see an infield of Hoskins / Kingery / Crawford / Franco.
    (Or Moustakas if FO has had enough of Franco.)

    Why is this still not the dream? The expectation? The plan?
    Did someone really expect they’d each be all-stars the moment they came up? That’s not how it normally works. So build strength around them and give them a chance to grow into what we believed they could be!

    Sign Harper (or Pollock if not going to get Harper). Start Quinn in Center and Doobie (or Williams) in Left.

    Add ONE* strong SP… Sign Corbin. Or trade for Carrasco. (or to throw out a bold name, Taillon.) offer Nick Williams, Seabold, & Randolph (add Mezquita for Taillon).
    *I believe Pivetta steps up big this year. And I want to have room in the rotation for Eflin or De Los Santos and then the flow of upside SPs in Romero, Medina, Howard, Sanchez in 2019 and early 2020.

    Add a strong RP to bullpen… Trade for Edwin Diaz. offer Eflin, RSuarez, Arano, & Brito. (Diaz is the new Kimbrel!)
    Put VV in bullpen. Sign a LH RP and a vet, defensive backup C.

    That’s my formula. Some big moves. And lots of trusting the core you’ve been dreaming about.

    1. John K – I agree with your infield. The only caveat being that I know nothing about what they’re like in the clubhouse. These guys are all so young, and to break them up now would be a big mistake. Signing Harper pretty much keeps the IF in place

      1. We can argue back and forth about whether Crawford is ready to be the SS of the future (still unclear), but Franco appears to be average at best at third. If the Phillies start next year with that infield I won’t be too happy about it, although I’ll be glad Hoskins is back where he belongs.

        1. I guess my point was really most about Hoskins / Kingery! I want to see them as the right side of the infield that I’ve always believed could maybe, just maybe, come close to rivaling Howard / Utley. I at least want to see them get a chance to! …And while we’re at it, I’d like to see Crawford actually get a chance. If he can be a strong defensive 3B with good OBP, he can compliment the rest of the lineup pretty well.

          As for 3B, yeah, Franco has been given all the chances I hope the Phillies would give the aforementioned three. I agree it makes sense to move on from Maikel. My comment to consider him as the 4th piece of the infield is due to a) the optimist in me that keeps saying “be patient” because he may one day be the MVP candidate that we’ll kick ourselves for giving up on too early, and b) IF we have a strong offensive 1B, 2B, and OF (including someone like Harper) then we can afford to give Franco time. …But I’m okay with bringing in Moustakas, …or better yet, offer a strong package to pry away Matt Chapman (excellent defense and big power)!

          Most importantly, do whatever you have to to put Hoskins and Kingery at 1B & 2B, and Crawford at SS too. Why not?! I still fully believe in them (especially with some big money spent around them).

          1. Why not? Because there may be several better options – at least for now. The Phillies in my view are in trouble if they are relying solely on Crawford and Kingery at SS and 2B next year – it could work out but they have no track record of success yet so they need to have other options.

    2. You’ll make Klentak head’s explode!! Klentak cannot even trade Lively for IFA $$ or PTBLR or cash. I don’t see Klentak active in the trade market — maybe some goodwill trades or dump a player move but nothing significant. Klentak is a checkers player (not chess), he cannot think ahead and his big play, if any, is FA signing since this doesn’t need critical thinking —- just an authorization to spend. Middleton said that he will open his wallet. Klentak will take his time just to give an impression that he is thinking.

    3. John K.:
      “Trade for Edwin Diaz. offer Eflin, RSuarez, Arano, & Brito. (Diaz is the new Kimbrel!)”…..will be hard since Dipoto wants teams to take Robby Cano off his hands if they want Diaz.
      That isa big pill to swallow.

      One poster already mentioned that fact with Cano’s contract coming back to the Phillies and many discounted that idea.
      Though looks like the Mets now, and their new GM, are entertaining it.

      1. Hey Romus. Yeah, I’ve read that. I’m just a big fan of Diaz (traded for him in my league in 2017 and he’s been incredible since). While there’s rumors (and probably credible in this case) out there, GMs looking to rebuild will often listen to a quality offer for a reliever. I’d still be making the calls.
        And if Dipoto isn’t interested at all, then we go find another strong RP option.
        I believe that while the Phillies have money to spend we also have a depth of players at every level from majors to rookie A to trade. Klentak has all kinds of resources at his disposal, keep trying to pull levers until you get the top talent that you want.

    1. Easy, TrollU. You better have the Mrs. hide any guitar string or dental floss in the house. Doesn’t sound like you’ll survive the month.

    2. Today is a big day for Corbin imo, he is meeting with Yanks, if he doesn’t sign today, I think he is really mulling the offer from the Phils/Nate. Word is among mlb execs that Machado signs with the Phils, and Harper stays in DC. Keeping Harper and adding Corbin would make the Nats very interesting

      1. Seems like all of our targets will go elsewhere.
        cant imagine Klentak or mcphail stick around for long if they botch this offseason

        1. Harper back to WAS (if not, then PHI).
          Machado comes here (if not, then NYY).
          Corbin to NYY.
          Pretty much as originally mapped out by many forecasters.

          In the final analysis, I think we would agree that Manny is a better player than Harper in terms of overall skill set, though not fan appeal and filling seats. If he does in fact sign here, than do we wait until he does before attempting to sign Brantley or Pollock? I mean, at what point does Klentak lay that on the line vs. the risk of losing a worthwhile OF to the rest of the market? He’s got quite a challenging menu to decipher the right appetizer, entree, sides, and dessert. And make sure they all go together. As much as we love parsing it all out, I don’t envy Klentak even a little. One hiccup can f*** this up bigtime.

          1. Manny and Lozano may settle for 10@300M qyuickly…whereas Boras will drag it out and may want that 10@350M or even higher price tag, on his guy.

        2. This is the problem with pinning your hopes to a FA class. You’re damned if you do and damned if you don’t LOL.

          My mantra has always been better lucky than good and unfortunately for us the Phillies have been neither.

          But alas I’m here for the prospects so give me some Spencer, give me some Garcia and unleash the Bohm.

  59. According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo, Cano and Diaz to NYM is gaining “traction” and momentum. Hate to lose out on Diaz and especially to the Mutts.

    1. It’s all very strange that Van Wagenen was Cano and DeGrom’s agent. If and when DeGrom get’s his extension what’s it going to look like and how will it not be perceived and some type of a conflict of interest.

      He was Cespedes agent as well…

  60. Was going to say the Nats aren’t going to sit idly by and let us have our way with the market. If nothing else they will have a say in our quest to land either Harper or Corbin.

    They are still a darn good team with more in the pipeline.

    1. Richards is no dummy…he prefers rehabbing in sunny SoCal vs the Northeast….though he has Sooner in his blood.
      Anyway, don’t think the Phillies are past that stage of their rebuild to be taking on ‘injured pitcher contracts now, with promise of better returns later’?

      1. It’s all about value, Romus. The Cubs did it last year with Drew Smyly. Obviously, the Dodgers are not in a rebuild, yet they have a strong interest in Garrett Richards. I’ve been all in all signing Richards to a TJ rehab deal for a while now. 2 years @ 15 million should get it done.

        1. Forgot to mention … the icing on the cake for a Garrett Richards signing … he’s Mike Trout’s best friend in baseball. He might even live at Trout’s Millville home while with the Phillies. Nothing wrong with that. You gotta’ keep thinking outside the box.

        2. I guess it comes down to what the end result a team is looking for.
          …as a trade chip or as a future pitcher in their rotation.
          Rays used Eovaldi as a chip…..will be interested in seeing what Theo does with Smyly.
          I just do not see the Phillies going that route….also he would have to be protected on the 40 until opening day, so that is one less slot available for a young prospect, then the 60 day DL will await after the season begins,

          1. Could offer him a handshake agreement to sign him after the season starts for that very reason. Offer him an extra mil or two for the consideration. That would also give us the opportunity to (indirectly) show Trout that the organization he loves also takes care of its players and sticks to its word.

            1. If he was willing to do something like that i guess that would be fine…..but just not sure his agent would agree to that arrangement since there will be other teams I am sure testing the waters with him…especially the small market teams that can use him as a valuable trade chip at some point after he recovers..

      1. Hard for me to envision paying that much for a guy with one 4bWAR year in his career…thats a lot of money
        And of the the last 4 years last year was his best…and now losing velo and getting almost his swing and miss on his slider.
        But if the market is what it is for him….then he should go ahead ad grab it.

          1. I beg to differ, a little…last off-season began the evolution , the slight change in the free agency market.
            And guys now in the late 20s and early 30s will be the dinosaurs soon and getting those long extended contracts for big money, but the Harpers/Machados of the mid-20s will be the big dollar guys going forward..
            I can see the early 30s guys getting the shorter contracts like Arrieta and Santana.
            It is just a feeling I am getting by watching what has been happening of late.
            Arenado at 29 after next season will be a test to see.

      2. I say 6/$138 with an opt out after year 4 but given what Price got I can see the Yankees going 6/$150

        The Nats have a penchant for deferrals so I can seem doing a 6/$175 just to screw us.

        1. Screw the pitching. Get the hitting! We have 6 pitchers in majors to start and at least 4 in high minors, get the HITTING NOW!!!!!

            1. Yes. Feel sorry for our starting pitching losing 1-0 or 2-0 into 5th and 6th, would be nice to be leading 5-2 and then see how they react.

            1. That’s a silly comment – these guys aren’t tone deaf like Hextall – if Middleton says he wants someone and decides that – they will go after him.

            2. Catch – Mcphail and Klentak haven’t done much in their tenure. The division rivals are getting better while the Phillies sit idle.

        2. DMAR….’with an opt out after year 4’…he will be going into his age33 season…more than likely he will be in a decline and will just stick around for the next two years and get the good salary, at the Phillies expense in the win column.

          1. Romus in the movie The Rock Nick Cage says to Sean Connery “I’m doing my friggin best here so what don’t you cut me some slack”

            to which Sean replies “losers always whine about doing their best and winners go home and @#%$ the prom queen”

          2. Hamels is going to make $20 mil in his age 34 season. I’m going to structure the Corbin deal at $25 mil in the first 4 years then $20 then $18. So if he wants to opt out at age 33 with $38 million remaining so be it.

            If he wants to stay I’m a baller I can handle that. It puts the AAV on the deal at $23 million. If he wants to go to the Yankees for less so be it. If it makes the Yankees stretch so be it.

            If it makes the Nats stretch even better.

            Yeah we gotta pay Nola so let’s do it offer him the Hamels extension he’d be crazy to turn that down.

            And as for needing money to pay Hoskins he can’t become an FA until 2024 so let’s not make the Howard mistake again. He’s not even in that class. And look I like Hoskins I bought his shirt and wear it proudly but he’s not a super star yet.

            If and when he becomes one we can worry about it.

            1. But will you get a 4WAr pitcher or a 2WAR pitcher at that price at that age?
              If it is the latter….you are hamstrung….and stuck with a pitcher, unmovable, and declining with each year he ages.
              Do you think Theo would do the Darvish deal now, if he could turn back the clock or offer him at the same price?.

              Also…Hoskins….he will not get $25M AAV in his arb years…..but he will get almost half that amount in arb3 and/or arb 4.
              Harper got $20M plus in hus final arb year.
              Manny got $16M this year
              in three years , if Hoskins is the player we hope he will be…will get much more north than $10M.
              And if the Phillies are worth anything…..they will buy out his last 2 arb years since he will be entering his age31 season as a UFA….that is not goodwill.

            2. Romus that’s something the Rays and A’s worry about. By then we should still have Nola. I’m betting big on Howard and heck if Sixto is as good as advertised is he not the ace by then with maybe Medina giving you a solid 4/5.

              You can’t be gun shy when you’re trying to be relevant again and when your owner spouts off about spending stupid money.

              Flat out Corbin can pitch.

            3. DMAR…..look at these contracts and their effects—-Corey Seirman:
              https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/phillies/phillies-will-spend-big-but-does-even-work
              1. Zack Greinke: $34.4M per year
              2. Miguel Cabrera, David Price, Clayton Kershaw: $31M
              5. Max Scherzer: $30M
              6. Yoenis Cespedes: $27.5M
              7. Jon Lester: $25.8M
              8. Justin Verlander: $25.7M
              9. Jake Arrieta, Felix Hernandez, Giancarlo Stanton, Stephen Strasburg: $25M

              …some GM, if they still are working for those teams, may have some regrets.

      3. @Hinkie – i agree about the $120M/5yrs for Corbin. The Phils might add $4-5M but that’s a stretch.

        I believe that by acquiring Paxton, this relieves the Yankees in going hard for Corbin at all costs. The Yanks will probably match what the Phillies can offer and rely on Corbin’s dream of playing for his home team to get him. If the Phillies intends to screw the Yankees by offering $150M/6yr —- the Yankees will call their bluff and use their $120M to sign Happ and another pitcher instead of spending $150M to Corbin.

      1. @8mark – Phillies might screw themselves if they offer $150M/6 yrs. NYY will not go that high so why do it? Remember the Phillies still need to save some $$ for Nola, Hoskins and Mike Trout!!

  61. The roster currently stands at 37 – potentially going down to 35 with non tenders to Avilan and Luis Garcia. No need to think about creative trade scenarios which we all know Klentak’s mind cannot handle. Klentak just need to do what Middleton said – get crazy stupid in handing money —– sign Harper, sign Machado, sign Corbin and use the last 2 spots to see what they can get from the Rule V or any FA who fell off the cracks,

    If Klentak is having a hard time gauging the trade value of Franco, Cesar, Santana — just DFA them —- teams will scoop them in the waivers and Klentak can pull them ask for some cash or PTBNL as returns. This might be selling low, but Klentak doesn’t know how to sell anyway,

    1. KuKo, I don’t think you can pull that until August. I may be wrong, but if you DFA them, and they are claimed, they go to the claiming team. In August, clubs have the right to pull them back. If I am wrong, I apologize in advance!

      1. @Matt – my understanding of the DFA rule is:

        A player is immediately removed from the team’s 40-man roster, after which the team must choose either of the following options:

        1) Return the player to the 40-man roster within 10 days from the date of designation

        2) Make one of the following four contractual moves: a) Place the player on waivers (which can only be done within the first 7 days of the 10-day period); b) TRADE the player; c) Release the player; or d) Outright the player from the 40-man roster into the Minor Leagues.

        So this can be done anytime.

          1. @romus – did the Yankees just DFAd Torreyes and eventually traded to Cubs for Cash? Except for the 10 (to 7) days, I think what I posted is accurate.

        1. I am reluctant on trading JPC, if the Phillies sign Manny, maybe for the right money, he will be happy go back to third…and JPC stays right there at his natural position….but then again Gabe Kapler probably does not see it that way.

          1. It’s hard for me to envision Franco or JPC as the third baseman this coming year. Both project to fringe/average players at third.

            1. Yes…Machado to third…and JPC should be there at shortstop.
              But Franco and JPC look to be moving on to different pastures, from what seems to be the under-lying prevailing talk this off-season.

      1. @romus – Eflin + Jose Gomez + Ramon Rosso for Edwin Diaz. Gomez and Rosso are sell high and Klentak need to cash in on Gomez and Rosso before they get exposed as pretenders next season. David Parkinson is Cole Irvin lite. He’s a sell high candidate too.

          1. There’s no harm in trying to sell prospects who are over performing their value. Jose Gomez (due to his head scratching high ranking from MLB.com), Parkinsons, Rosso, Darrick Hall, Rodolfo Duran are prospects that are producing but I don’t see having success in the high minors or MLB.

            1. Okay, let’s be real.

              Diaz is going to cost something like Cesar, Altherr and Medina. Not insane, but certainly not as cheap as others have suggested.

              And should they do that? I wouldn’t.

        1. Why on earth would Seattle take that deal? People are losing their minds here with massive overpay proposals and insulting underpay proposals. Focus people. Focus.

          1. have some fun @catch, you’re too stiff sometimes. If you see Jose Gomez in a post, that’s an automatic troll the same way Callis and Mayo is trolling the Phillies.

            1. KuKo…..I really cannot see MLB.com having Gomez in the to[p 20 , no less top 30 this year.
              They would be off their rockers this time around to do it.

          2. Blame it on the historic offseason, and that the Phillies are actual players in it … great time to be a phan … but I think it is driving a lot of us nuts. Tons and tons of rumors, and a blank transaction ledger….!!!

            I think the Phillies have a lot of alternatives. For instance, if Corbin signs elsewhere or goes crazy high, we can bring back happ or trade with the Indians. I’m about to take my first born to Vegas to bet on the Phillies getting 1 of the big 2. At this point is seems like a guarantee, we just don’t know which one.

            I’m not crazy about relievers, always seems like Russian roulette. I’ve said this on other sites before, but the Phillies always seem to have a knack for coming up with an Allstar closer, even during the lean years. I’d be weary giving up Medina for Diaz. Reason being, I’m treating Medina as our top prospect until we know more about Sixto’s health.

            I haven’t seen a lot of Diaz, but how good is he? Are we talking Mariano clone or Mitch Williams here? I do know his K ratio is great, but is he a ground ball or fly all
            Pitcher? Do we think he translates to CBP well?

            My thought is if Franco is gone to SD, what more does it take to get Their top bullpen guy? Remember, we have Seranthany, so we don’t need to over pay yet.

            1. Spencer Howard is above both Medina and even Sixto just sayin. At least until Sixto demonstrates he’s not mr. glass!

              But ultimately your point is correct no need to go crazy trying to get Diaz right now. Bigger fish to fry.

              They need to put an MVP caliber player in one of the corners or at 3B preferably both spots.

            2. Right now it looks like Sixto has the highest ceiling but I love Spencer as a prospect and, like Jake DeGrom, he could suddenly pass everyone and become a TOR arm. That was a freaking great draft pick.

  62. So the Phillies put “Welcome Patrick Corbin” up on the big screen the other day, and the Yankees remembered to also welcome his wife. Ooops

    1. John Doe……since he brought his girlfriend with him, and not a wife….i think she would be a little upset with a ‘welcome Mrs Corbin ‘ up there.

  63. Hre are my current predictions:

    1) Diaz + Cano will go to the Mets for Jay Bruce and some prospects.

    2) Corbin might eventually go to WAS especially if they can’t resign Harper. I don’t see both the Phillies and NYY offering more than 5 years to Corbin. WAS will offer 6-7 years to get Corbin out of the Phillies reach.

    3) Franco, Santana and Cesar will eventually traded with minor returns (i.e. low level minors, bench players or bullpen arm).

    4) Klentak will sign at least 3 FAs – with at least a superstar and another establish player.

    5) Klentak will have a lengthy discussion with CLE at the Winter League discussing a SP for OF swap targeting Carlos Carrasco. Eflin, Vinny, Williams and a prospect (not Sixto or Medina) will be discussed.

        1. Tac3, I am not relegating Sixto to the ‘Pen. He is still, on my board, a future TOR SP. If he ends up in the BP then that significantly reduces his value, and really impacts the value of our farm system. You may end up being right, but I hope not.

      1. Jim, What do you make of the recent scuttlebutt from so-called “industry experts” that has us signing Machado? Could there have been a switch in their thinking?

        1. The “experts” need news each day. Even “faux” news.

          Only a couple teams have the bankrolls to compete for the top two free agents.

          Realistically, the market for Harper is Washington and Philadelphia. The Yankees could enter that market if they choose. Moving Stanton would signal their interest. Assuming they don’t, the Nationals “dissed” the guy who thought he would become the first $400M player (and maybe even $500M, as he mused early in the season) with a 11 year/$300M offer. The Phillies can blow that offer out of the water with something like a 9 year/$360M offer. Giving the Nats a large “home town” discount here is unlikely for such a large $ difference. Hopefully, it would also be enough to deter the Yankees.

          Realistically, the market for Machado is Philadelphia and the Yankees and both organizations are hesitant after the Johnny Hustle stuff (I don’t really believe this) and they both have other options at SS. Word is that Machado is considering a shorter deal, say 4-5 years. That brings the Phillies into play even if they sign Harper. A shorter deal would also be enticing to the Yankees and probably a few other clubs. However, the Phillies are seriously trying to pry Segura away from Seattle. The cost will be substantial (IMO). But, should they land Segura, Machado drops down the list and the org can focus on arms.

        1. I don’t have a problem with this. BTW, my “how do you feel about …” above was not something I dreamt up on my own. My personal preference is Machado. I like both players. I think Machado fills a greater need. But, if the org goes Harper, I get it.

      2. Jim I say yes to Harper but no to Brantley and Miller. Brantley and Miller are riddled with injuries and won’t figure into this teams future championships.

        and quite honestly if they can’t land both Harper and Machado I would say stay out of the mix for said superstar and look to make trades instead for a corner OF.

        The Phillies are more than one Super Star away so I would shift gears and start to look at other ways I could use my money.

        Not the Cano deal but some other player possibly on a bad contract tied to a really good young player. Staying in Seattle what if you took on all of King Felixs remaining Salary $54.6 million and got them to include Mitch Haniger who is 27 and probably doesn’t figure into their future.

        Yeah you would send them back a player or two but no one of consequence.

      3. @JimP – I’m ok with the trio you mentioned but who I’m implying are:

        1) Superstar – Machado
        2) Established player – Brantley
        3) 3rd FA – RP most likely Britton

  64. Man it’s been a crazy day on this board, and nothing has even happened. Wait till it does! These will become 1000 comment threads.

  65. Richards is a good pick up and the money is not bad at all. Tac3, you are right! I am going crazy waiting for Klentak to do something. I hope you win $ from Vegas. I won’t relax until we sign one of them. A smaller deal would make me happy right now, sort of like an hors d’oeuvre while waiting for dinner. Opening up a spot or 2 on the 40 Man just doesn’t o it for me.

    1. Matt13…Richard will not be pitching again in the majors until his age 32season…on his last year of that contract. Not sure what the Padres will expect from him at that time…possibly a July rental trade?

  66. Anyone check to see if Klentak is on the phones? Or is he vacationing?

    Richards would have been a good pick up for future results.

    1. I did, it’s taking him a little time to figure out how the phones work, just be patient I’m sure you will hear something shortly and it will probably floor you.

  67. It is 6:15pm, no word on Corbin signing with the Yanks. I’m going to take that as a very good sign, but I’m still leaning towards him signing with NYY, just a greater chance now that it’s not a shoe in. The Nats sounds like they might be in the lead at this point

    1. I tend to think that the contract negotiations take place separately from the schmoozing visits. The player and his wife/gf get to take in the aura of the team’s town, facilities, amenities, housing options, etc. The agent sits down and crunches the numbers with the GM and his negotiating team, not necessarily simultaneously.

      1. I can agree with that, but in this case, I gives us a ray of hope. I’m thinking he Phillies have a 10% of signing him versus Yanks – 60,Nats -30. Nats hate the Phils to begin with, and if they sign Harper away, I can see them offering Corbin the most out of spite.

        Future bullpen:

        VV
        Sixto
        Seranthony
        Miller or Diaz

        I can see it happening

          1. People should rejoice at what will end up being a stupid Mets move after this year. The Mets, who desperately need to rebuild, will get a fading and expensive star, dispense with key prospects and ultimately not be able to sign all of their stud pitchers. They are relegating themselves to second division status for the years 2020-2025 – a strategy I heartily endorse.

            1. This comment thread is getting a bit unwieldy, so I’ll post it again – It’s reported that the Mariners will send $60 to the Mets in the Cano/Diaz deal. That chunk of cash doesn’t make the deal nearly so bad for the Mets.

  68. Tac3, I am not relegating Sixto to the ‘Pen. He is still, on my board, a future TOR SP. If he ends up in the BP then that significantly reduces his value, and really impacts the value of our farm system. You may end up being right, but I hope not.

    1. “impacts the value of our farm system”. The value of any farm system is only the concern of the fans of that organization. It’s an arbitrary number determined by sites to induce interest and “clicks” on a site’s articles. It’s kind of like the old AP and UPI football polls when coaches or writers (or a sitting president) determined the national champion by voting for their conference or regional team in weekly and year-end polls.

      IF it is determined that Sanchez will best serve the Phillies as a back end reliever, they will make the decision without worrying about the effect on how writers will evaluate the farm system. However, IF they come to that internal decision, I hope they try to extract value from another org, letting them overpay and then learn for themselves that he belongs in the pen.

      1. But, Jim, I don’t care about the rankings, I do care what the true value is. That is, what can our prospects be expected to produce in the Majors, and/or what our prospects can bring back if we are in the market for an established Major Leaguer. If Sixto is only a BP Pitcher, and he is our #1 prospect, and other teams view him that way, who brings back a top player in a trade? Bohm has not done a thing yet, we do have Medina, Luis Garcia looks terrific and we have some young Pitching. I still want Sixto to be a TOR SP, and I want him pitching for us.

        1. I love Sixto but I am learning slowly not to fall in love with certain prospects. I’ve already done that with Kingery and I’m starting to loosen my hold on him as well. His contract only tells me they should commit to him now and find out about him. With Sixto and his health concerns, I play the futures market with him and sell, sell, sell.

          1. Sixto had an issue last year and he’s still super young. Please let’s not put him in the Roman Quinn bucket yet. Sixto has elite stuff and command – until I see or hear otherwise, he’s their best prospect (Luis Garcia may have something to say about that soon) and a possible future ace. They will not move him to the BP unless and until it’s absolutely necessary – I don’t see it happening and I’m very excited by him.

  69. Padres paying Richards $15M guaranteed is a crazy overpay. That’s what it takes to get someone to go to the Padres. They could go hard for Trout also in 2 years.

  70. Check Phillies Nation – there is alot of information about multiple teams looking at Seattle players – namely Diaz and Cano. There are several who just want Diaz (all of them) and they are sorting out Cano’s payments. Phillies are one of the “many” teams.

  71. Braves improved and Mets about to be improved as trade is about to complete.
    Phillies have done nothing
    IMO Phillies needed to pounce quickly and make a statement. They have not done so.

    1. No, they don’t need to make a statement (there are no games in December) – they need to get it right. It’s legitimate to have concerns given Klentak’s prior moves and hesitancy, but they will be judged at the end of this off season (when we see what they have assembled) and then again at the end of the real season (when we see how that assemblage of talent performs in real life). If they get Harper or Machado and some good support, nobody will ever give a flying fart if the signing happened in December or February. Calm down. Geez.

      1. Catch – you usually have great points and I enjoy reading your commentary but as a fan of 25+ years, I am not going to calm down. A statement is needed for the fans. Our rivals are making moves while Klentak watches The Big Bang Theory. I will admit when/if I am wrong, but I think Klentak will drop the ball.

        1. No, we don’t need a “statement” acquisition in late November or early December to appease the fan base. It’s an important off-season for the Phillies, but the front office needs to be smart rather than impatient.

        2. @troll – Middleton is breathing hard behind Klentak. Klentak will make moves – most probably multiple FA signings – and save his (and McPhail) job.

          The trade side is where i don’t expect Klentak to do a good job. He will make some trades, but nothing to get excited about.

  72. It’searly, true, but Cano, although his contract is a bad one, still makes the Mets better, and certainly Diaz does. I think Donaldson helps the Braves, and they were already better than us. It would be nice to see a little aggressiveness from Klentak.

    1. Phillies have jumped out before in previous offseasons only to be passed by the end of it, I’d like them to be aggressive, but we need to “win” the offseason , and have that translate onto the field. Klentak is about to have his moment (I hope)

        1. Last offseason’s contracts were a pretty good reason to trust him. Santana was an experiment gone wrong, but the other 3 were risks I take 10 times out of 10.

          I also can’t recall a single early contract we’ve signed that HASN’T burned us in a big way yet. Anyone remember the Papelbon fiasco? You guys jumping up and down to repeat that?

          Generally there’s only 3 reasons a player signs early in the offseason: 1) they aren’t that good, 2) the player has their heart set on one place specifically, or 3) the contract offered was so ridiculous that they accept before the GM can come to their senses.

          If it’s 1, we shouldn’t care. If it’s 2 (sounds like that was the case for Donaldson, by the way), there was nothing we could do about it anyways. And I don’t want to be number 3… again…

          There’s really nothing to be upset about until the big pieces sign other places. If and when that happens, then we should be upset.

        2. I hear you, I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt, negotiations take longer than we want them too. Btw, don’t fully panic if Corbin signs with The Nats.

          Keep I’mind, what can happen with Diaz, if they lose out, other teams will assess their roster and might make their top closer available once they see the return/market is set.

          1. I would be stunned if the Nats outbid the Yankees AND Phillies. If they did, however, I have to think that would take them out of bringing Harper back.

            On another front, it seems the now inevitable Diaz trade has to a large degree been the lynch pin to kicking off the reliever market. With all the interested clubs in dialogue with DiPoto, he most definitely is more highly regarded than any FA, back of the bullpen option. Which disappoints me even more since a) we are supposed to be ‘all that’ this winter, and b) the Mets for crying out loud? A division rival beat us to the best available closer?!?! An organization in financial instability and lacking the farm system we supposedly have.

            I’m sure we’ll make a big splash with a no-brainer signing. And I’m sure Klentak is in constant contact with virtually every team in baseball. My biggest concern is that he and his staff are again over valuing their own and getting nowhere fast in the process.

            1. I wouldn’t be shocked on the Nats, they probably feel like Soto can replace Harper and their window to win. Take on Corbin, trade or sign a fa reliever – its not a bad plane for a team that has been flirting with being Able to get over the hump.

              The East is going to be tough, which leads me to think only 1 team comes out of it

            2. Don’t let the Diaz trade disappoint you. He comes at a HUGE price, the absorption of Cano’s remaining contract ($24M/year thru 2023). He would be another second baseman on our roster and another guy projected to end up at first base. Yeah, I’d like to have Diaz, but we aren’t at a point where we want to take on Cano’s contract. Are we?

            3. @8mark – i know you love to have both Corbin and Diaz in your opening roster but don’t be surprised if they are not —- nobody expects Corbin and Diaz to a Phillie anyway. The Phillies biggest need is offensive bats so that’s where they can get crazy throwing everything at.

              While the Phillies probably have the deepest pocket this offseason, they will not offer $150M/6yr to Corbin. NYY will not either. I can see WAS doing it to stay competitive in the NL East especially if they lose out on Harper.

              Honestly, I like Hinkie’s boy – Felipe Vazquez than Edwin Diaz. The Phillies can go after Vazquez without absorbing an albatross contract. And also, the Phillies have some good RP arms in the minors who can be up with the Phillies. Klentak will acquire an established arm in FA — watch out for Britton.

              The Phillies will make a big splash but mostly on FA rather than trade — I’m almost certain of that. I don’t think Klentak is over valuing his players/prospects —- he is just a risk averse person that make him gun shy in any sort of trade, absorbing contracts and signing TJS players.

    2. Reports are that the Mariners will send $60M to the Mets in the deal. That’s almost half of the $124 owed to Cano the next five seasons, and makes absorbing the Cano contract much more palatable.

  73. Sounds like it would be a huge upset for the Phillies to be able to land Patrick Corbin.

    1. “but we aren’t at a point where we want to take on Cano’s contract. Are we?”

      Why yes we are, Jim, or could be. It’s chess and if the Phils could move contracts like Santana and CeHe in the process and lock in a team-controlled closer — to obviate the need to spend heavily on a free agent closer — you have to factor that in and look closely at Cano. You have to.

  74. In response to Jim P’s overnight posts above, I am ecstatic if it plays out.

    I’ve been wondering myself if Manny would take a much shorter, higher AAV deal where he could hit the market again by age 30-31. I would then say sign both him and Harper, and then signing Trout wouldn’t be so prohibitive if Machado is gone in 4-5 yrs.

    I have posted several comments in support of acquiring Segura. He is the high contact hitter we need. Glad to hear Jim say they are trying to pry him away. I would offer Odubel, Eflin and Medina.

    Jim’s thought on Sixto is identical to mine. Sell high sooner if it’s determined he’s bullpen bound. I think Gowdy, Howard, Morales and Irvin pose as more reliable long term SPs than either Sixto or Medina, who are talented arms, don’t get me wrong. But this is where shrewd organizations make wise moves ahead of the curve.

    My excitement is renewed this morning. And thanks to Jim for sharing his candid perspective.

    1. Segura, nice player, I hope he can fit in the lockeroom, going off memory, he has been traded a lot, so hopefully he gets it now, on the total responsibilities of his job. Can’t be a “insert”, and expect to plant roots with a team.

      Segura, Crawford,Kingery, and Hoskins. Not sure all those players survive the trade, if not, looks like if could be Machado,Segura,Kingery, and Hoskins manning the INF. I’d say that is an improvement over Franco,Kingery,Hernandez, and Santana.

      Looks like the likely meter is pointing back towards Mr Hustle over Poster boy.

      1. Yep….”going off memory, he has been traded a lot”….Brewer, DBacks, Mariners and now ???Phillies…all since 2015. Just keep him and Dee Gordon out of the same locker room and things may work out.

      1. Just wondering what Jeter/Hill would want attached to the Alfaro centered package.
        Have to assume a pitcher for one, or maybe even two. I see a 3 for 1 deal if that were to happen.

          1. Yes that could move the needle….and Jeter surely must realize if he doesn’t move Realmuto this off-season, he stands to get minimal return the longer he holds him though he still has two years (19 and 20) before free agency but his next two arb years will be hefty pay raises for the catcher.

            1. Plus the fact…Realmuto is entering his age28 season as a catcher in 2019…..Jeter cannot wait until July 2020 to move him entering his age31 season in ’21…..there will be few attractive offers for a catcher at that age and wear on him.
              So the optimal time is right now thru 31 July 2019.

          2. With all the other teams involved in acquiring JTR, I doubt that package gets him. Standing alone, it’s compelling and perhaps a starting point. Miami would have to want at least a top 10 bat from the system. Haseley or maybe Bohm.

            1. Three for one is normally what kind of a quantitative return you would get.
              So Alf has to be one…..the other two is up to jeter and what he wants.

              BTW….I am beginning to think that the Klentak regime may have pulled a good one…..shutting down Sixto from mid-summer thru now, may have thrown many GMs off in asking for him….damaged unknowing goods.
              Maybe that was the Klental intention knowing this off-season would be a time of multiple trades involving the Phillies.
              If so….maybe a good tactic.

  75. I’m a big Diaz fan. He’s the most dominant Closer in the game (I dubbed him the next Kimbrel in 2017 when I traded for him in my league).

    The Mets seem to have paid large price taking on Cano contract and trading their #3 and #4 prospects (per mlb.com). However, unlike the Phillies, the Mets have 2B available to Cano. (McNeil can play elsewhere or be super-sub. He played all over IF and CF in minors.)

    I would have loved getting Diaz, but a Closer is not our biggest priority this offseason. A great hitter is.

  76. Lot of chatter here about Phillies not being aggressive, not making big splash early, etc.
    I’ll propose that they may be being wise.

    2018 preseason:
    Signed Santana early (last offseason was especially slow). Overpaid for position we didn’t need.
    Signed Arrietta very very late. Waited out the market and struck when value made sense.

    2018 Mid-season:
    Didn’t give up kings ransom for MM. How would we feel if we had lost Medina and other big prospects for a team that was overachieving and likely to crumble?
    Did at least do something, but gave up almost nothing for most of them (except Kilome for Cabrera).

    Seems FO biggest mistake in past year was the Santana traded, which they jumped out to unnecessarily.

    Not getting Diaz stinks, but we just couldn’t compete with someone willing to take on 2B Cano as well.
    And we are not going to get Corbin. We never really had much chance IMO. He’s very likely going to the Yankees to play for his childhood team. So don’t be too disappointed.

    There’s still lots of great options out there. I’m hoping they’ll strike when the deal is right, not just when we want them to because we are too anxious.

    1. This is unusual territory for Phillies phans, it’s exciting. We need to give the FO the offseason before reacting, unless of course they lose out on both big names. There are a lot of ways this could shake out… for instance, what if the Phillies trade for Segura, sign MM,Brantley, and Happ? Make a trade for Bauer? Team looks vastly different if they can trade Franco, Hernandez, santana, and one of their starters.

      Sixto could be fast tracked to the bullpen with VV to solidify the pen with Seranthony. Not my preference, but I’m showing another way this could shake out. They’d still be in position for Trout. There is still Kikichiu or something like that too. We are just going to have to be patient, no matter the noise level

      1. Tac – If the Phillies were to acquire Segura and Machado, It would be a huge upgrade at 3B and SS. In my opinion, Machado is the only available player who is an upgrade over Franco. I’d also consider Brantly and Happ as good upgrades, but I disagree with Bauer. To me Bauer is the same as Eflin and Velasquez. If the Phillies were to sign Happ and Kikuchi, they should move Velasquez to the pen or trade him.

  77. My biggest concerns is MK is so busy trying to methodically overanalyze so many options that plays are gone while he’s analyzing and then he overpays for mediocrity in a panic at the end

  78. I’d like to see them sign MM, Brantley, britton and happ. that fills most of the needs, then look into trades to fine tune the roster with potential trades with san diego, Cleveland etc

  79. Robinson Ca-NO to the Phillies!! I’m not worried about that trade to the Mets. I agree with Hinkie that the Phillies keeps an eye on Mike Trout and that Cano albatross contract help strap them in going hard on Mike Trout. Diaz can be the next Kimbrel but he is not yet Craig Kimbrel. RP arms are so volatile and I’m certain that nobody thinks Diaz will be Kimbrel before the 2018 season. RP arms are always available at the trade deadline if the Phillies really need one.

    Carlos Santana is an experiment went bad – yes, and he is not the only experiment that went bad. Kingery as the SS/SUPER UTIL, Hoskins as the LF, the play by the analytics thing, etc and so much more. Who

    Harper told a friend that living in Philly is not his 1st choice —- $$ will change his mind!

    1. KK – That Philly is not his first choice story sounds like something that an agent would put out there to squeeze more money out of Middleton.

      1. I don’t think so — there are only 2 or 3 teams who can afford to make Harper happy financially. Middleton will focus more of how far NYY and WAS can go and not be bothered by any agent trick play.

        The same goes to Machado unless he insists on short term deal where other teams can be a player. If not, there will be 2 or 3 players for Machado. Middleton will look at the teams financial status (salary and liquidity wise), monitor their needs and FA signings and evaluate how much these team have to offer to Machado then Middleton will run his numbers and give it to Machado’s agent.

  80. We all want the Phils to make some moves but please, let’s continue to want smart moves. I think the Mets gave up too much for Cano, I think the Padres paid too much for one year on the field of Richards, I think the Braves paid too much for a fading star who will miss plenty of games, and I think if Corbin gets 7 years it would be a terrible signing. As for the big two, they’re going to go for crazy money and the Phils will play. I really do like the idea of trading for Segura and then signing MM for 3b plus Brantley. We all need to stay patient, at least until the meetings start in Vegas. Will McCann be released today?

    1. Murray – agree with you. Phillies never had a chance to sign Donaldson when he admitted his favorite team was Braves and player, Ron Gant ; team does not have any player other than Santana with a bad contract (and that is not onerous) when Seattle’s m – o was to get rid of Cano contract first and foremost ; Corbin is a Yankee unless the $$ is plain silly. These are not viable competitive deals that the Phillies lost – the odds were stacked against them. It is way too early and more will happen for certain !!

      1. the play that the Phillies can lose is if they failed to land one of Harper or Machado and another FA. this offseason is all about signing top FAs Harper and Machado in particular. Donaldson was never been a target and Corbin is unanimously projected to be a Yankee. The Paxton deal might shorten the Yankees leash to go into a bidding war for Corbin, but the Yankees will pay at least $120M to Corbin.

        on the trade front, the expectation is trading away players like Santana, Franco, Cesar, Williams, JPC and possibly Doobie. If Klentak can get something of good value from these players, then that’s good. but the expectation is low.

    2. Why does the Mets aquiring Robinson Cano remind me that the Mets are still paying Bobby Bonilla and will be for another 17 years.

  81. Sounds like the Phillies are going to have to overpay for Yusei Kikuchi, if they want him too.

  82. About the Mets and their expected deal with the Mariners …

    The whole idea of hiring Brodie Van Wagenen (former agent) as their GM is absolutely mind-blowing. Not only does he have zero experience working in a FO, but he has all kinds of conflicts of interest. For instance … he negotiated Robinson Cano’s albatross contract with Seattle. He also (until about a month ago) repped Noah Syndergaard (who he is reportedly ready to trade).

    In addition … why would you give up two of your best prospects and take on Cano’s money in a deal to help now, and then turn around and trade Syndergaard (who will help you win now) for prospects ?

    Sounds, to me, like the Mets and BVW are making splashy moves to just grab some headlines. I don’t see this ending well for the NYM.

    1. agree, trading kelenic and dunn are mind boggling! kelenic and dunn should fetch edwin diaz without robbie’s albatross contract! get wait to see what BWV will get from thor, possibly 3 reclamation prospects who used to be top prospects.

      i’m glad it happens to the mutts!

  83. Acquiring Jean Segura should just be Plan C not Plan A. Plan A is signing Machado. Once you have Machado, no need to acquire Segura since an INF of Hoskins-Kingery-JPC-Machado can be good enough. Acquiring Machado will cost the Phillies $$ but acquiring Seguara will cost somebody like Eflin or Vinny, an OF possibly Nick Williams, a Top 10 prospect possible Medina and another Top 30 (Maton or Muzziotti) or a high upside INF (Jake Holmes, Nic Torres).

    If Klentak can convince DiPoto to accept a package of Doobie, Cesar and Franco for Jean Segura then do it.

    1. I don’t see how the Phils can start 2019 season with both Kingery and JP in the lineup. They were both bad last year and I can see one of them in the lineup this year. My guess is Kingery. JP will be on the bench or in a trade (like to Seattle). Btw, Seattle is tearing down, they don’t want veterans, they want kids. It obviously depends on what MM us saying about playing SS vs 3B.

      1. If the Phillies really want to compete in 2019 and acquire MM I think MM has to play third where he is a complete stud. Also, in that scenario there’s no way I’m trading Cesar without a really good return. You don’t acquire MM only to put two players in the middle infield who have ZERO track record of major league success. I’m not saying they won’t be successful but the odds that both play above average ball this year is low, so Cesar likely stays in that scenario until JPC and SK show they are ready to take over at both positions.

            1. i finally agree with you @8mark! No GM values Cesar that high — it is only the Cesar supporters who think Cesar can get Klentak a good return. Klentak will just run the Cesar’s team control course and let him walk away in FA if no GM will give a “good return” for him. I’ve been posting this for a while — that the current Cesar will fetch 2 low minors that’s why I’ve been advocating to move him almost 2 years ago.

            2. @rmous – i agree with the IFA $$. The Phillies can be a player in signing Harper, Pollock, Keuchel, Corbin, Kimbrel — all of them rejected their QO, thus, will cost the Phillies some draft picks and some IFA $$. With Sal A.’s good record in finding gems in IFA market, it’s a smart play to always have enough $$ to sign IFAs,

              The QO impact is the one consideration why I prefer Brantley over Pollock and Kikuchi over Corbin/Keuchel and Britton over Kimbrel.

            3. KuKo…..with obtaining IFA$$$ for Cesar, I can see Klentak holding out for what he thinks would be a fair exchange….and I would have to agree.
              I would never settle for anything less than $1.5M and would try to get $2M.
              Garcia cost a high bonus allocation…$2.5M…but he so far has proved it to be worth it ….Ortiz otoh, at $4.4M, has been struggling to live up to that outlay.
              Nats’ gave Soto $1.8M if I recall correctly…whereas Acuna was less than $500K from the Braves….so who knows.

      2. both Kingery and JPC played bad and i’m certain that mismanagement plays a big part of it. a lot of hitters played below expectation last year including the normally reliable Cesar and Doobie. and Kapler also made some big time blunders losing games so he has no right to be the skipper too?

        i can see that the Phillies (Klentak and Kapler in particular) are not fond of JPC (and Nick Williams) — so they’ll be the first on the list to be traded. but if these 2 are not traded and played well during spring training, they can still be part of the starting line up.

        IMO, as long as the Phillies sign Harper and/or Machado and Roman Quinn is healthy and playing as expected, Kingery and JPC as the starting INF batting in the bottom order is acceptable as long as they are not a mess defensively (which I don’t expect them to be if they are playing their position of strength).

        1. I do think they want Roman Quinn in the line-up a lot – perhaps even as a regular (it’s a little hard to tell), but they believe in his talent and it’s easy to see why.

  84. If Kikuchi goes to the West Coast, and Corbin goes to the Yankees, why are we not in on Happ strongly? Kikuchi out west and Corbin to NY was predicted by pretty much everyone. I hope, more than anything about Klentak, that he is smart enough to know when he is being played to up the ante vs dealing with a player we really have a chance to sign. There seems to be a lot of buzz that Machado is more likely here along with the smae people thinking Harper goes back to Washington. I know most of these “tidbits” are Agent’s doing their best to make their clients more $, But the more I think about it, the more I like sr’s plan, MM, Brantley, Britton and Happ.

    1. Here’s the thing about elite players (especially those with shorter term contracts) that people are missing. Elite players, for all their big contracts, will always be desired by other teams so moving those contracts (especially a 4 year deal) should not be difficult and might even net some good prospects.

  85. Avillan had a good 2017, but fell off a little last year. Garcia was awful, but the Phillies love his stuff. Morgan has been a bullpen guy for two full seasons now, but he’s been inconsistent (especially in the area of getting left handed batters out). Relief pitchers are notoriously noted for being hot one year and cold the next.
    If the Phillies were to sign Corbin and acquire Diaz, would the Phillies rely on a seven man bullpen? After all, Lehigh is just a couple hours away, and it would give us another bench bat or third catcher.

    1. Luis Garcia and Avilan are my candidates to be non-tendered if Klentak foresee that roster space(s) need(s) to be opened. Adam Morgan will have another shot to prove his worth but his leash is really really short now.

      1. KK – If the Phillies went to arbitration with all three pitchers, it would cost about $12 million. They could still be included in a trade this winter, or DFA’d at the end of spring training. It’s worth the risk to offer all three a contract.

        1. I don’t agree. What GM is in the right mind who will tender a guaranteed contract to a player and eventually DFA him before the season starts? MLB contracts are guaranteed contracts so the Phillies or any team who traded for them will be on the hook for that $$. That $$8M-12M can be used to sign a good pen arm of a bench guy who can actually help the team instead of a “just in case” gut feeling.

          Also, I don’t see too much trade value in Luis Garcia and Luis Avilan and their trade value will go down with a $$ to them unless the Phillies will send the $$ to the receiving team. If the Phillies want to trade them, they could have done it already for PTBNL or cash.

          1. Sheesh,…the Bour and Bautista acquisitions still bug me….a pure Kapler fanatical desire. And wish to heck the FBI get moving on their investigation. How can it take so long…this ain’t collusion!

            1. The manager of the investigation didn’t have his investigators warmed up to start so it is taking longer than expected.

            2. The JoeyBats is a head scratcher, at least Klentak didn’t give anything of value. I rather see Dylan Cozens sink or swim that see JoeyBats in the OF. The Santana signing not only moved Hoskins out of his best position but also limited the opportunity for Bour to contribute to the team. I still think the Klentak give up more to acquire Bour who at 30 yo I don’t really see any future with the Phillies.

              Looks like the Phillies will look to Darrick Hall as the power LH bat!! Cheer up Romus!

            3. At least with Kilome, though now under the TJ rehab umbrella for a year, would have been a an added and decent piece in a package for a player that would be relevant to Phillies fortunes….Bautista was such an off-base acquisition.
              Kapler’s impetuous gambling desires for quick offensive results is ludicrous.

  86. I’m not sure which is more annoying – meteorologists making 6 figures who can’t predict the weather more accurately than the kit I used as a kid?

    OR…

    all the local scribes across MLB cities trying to legitimize a top tier FA’s odds of signing with their team with silly, nonsensical pieces and click bait. It’s NYY or PHI for Manny and either PHI or WAS for Harper.

    There oughtta be a law.

    1. Kimbrel is 30 yo so i don’t expect to offer him 6 years. A $65-$70M/4 yr is most likely or a high AAV 3yr or front loaded 5 yr as other options.

      1. I think he’s on the way down. I’d stay away from Kimbrel. We don’t need another Papelbon contract – not with the other needs we have on this team.

        1. Curious, I haven’t been following him, since being off the Braves. Why do you think he is on the downswing? Age? Did he lose velocity? Breakdown a lot? I’m asking because he was once mentioned as possibly holding a candle to Riviera. If true, and looking at Riveria’s career, 6 might not be so crazy. I’m sure that is how he looks at himself. 5 would nice on a front load deal.

          Also I forget, is the AAV of the co tract what counts on the “salary cap” or the actual dollar amount for that year? If it is the dollar amount, they Phillies could load up this year, to setup the books

          1. Kimbrel still holds his FB velocity (around 97 mphish) but he is not dominant in the recent BOS playoffs run and he is showing some red flags and decline —– BB rate and HR rate are going up. I hope Klentak will not sign him but rather sign a cheaper alternative in Zach Britton.

            1. KuKo….also FIP broke 3 for he first time in his career and the 5 blown saves were the most for him since his early Brave days. But agree,,,,,not worth it…Britton for me…Phillies have plenty right arm relievers to choose from.

    2. Yeah, I’ll pass on Kimbrel unless the price is reasonable, which it won’t be. And by reasonable I mean like a 3 year/$40M deal. A 5 or 6 year deal for Kimbrel is a gross overpay IMO, as is a shorter contract for $65M+. His best years are behind him.

  87. @ZHBuchanan
    Greinke’s full no-trade list, per a baseball source:

    – Orioles
    – Red Sox
    – Reds
    – Rockies
    – Tigers
    – Yankees
    – Athletics
    – Padres
    – Giants
    – Cardinals
    – Blue Jays
    – Angels
    – Dodgers
    – Twins
    – Phillies
    12:31 AM – Nov 30, 2018

    …Greinke must be a little goofy…he will however play for the Marlins, Rays, Royals,Mets, Pirates, Nats, Cubs et al….many teams that are facing financial austerity with their payrolls, smaller market teams, or have no desire to have him pitch for them.

          1. Ok….that would make sense….East coast teams may have pressures, from fans and media, that you do not experience in the southwest or midwest.

    1. Often, big market teams are the ones on no-trade lists simply because they’re the most likely to want to trade for a player, giving that player more leverage to work out a deal they favor.

  88. The Mariners just traded Alex Colome to the White Sox for a certain Omar Narvaez. Is Klentak awake?? He can easily beat trade and acquire Colome.

  89. Seriously, is anyone awake here? I understand that the signings of either Harper or Machado to some extent are going to be on their schedule, but the Phils have 50 moves to make and nothing has happened.

    This team, by all appearances, wants to move several of Franco, JPC, Cesar, Santana, Hunter, Neshek, Odubel, Nick Williams, and possibly others. They want to acquire 1-2 starting pitchers, a closer, maybe another reliever or two, a third baseman, a backup catcher, and maybe an OF or two. Not all of this has to wait until the big chips fall into place. Donaldson and a few others have accepted offers in advance, and I’m sure others might as well.

    DO SOMETHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      1. Considering shutting off communications on Phillies until spring training then see what the roster is and start to follow them again

  90. Funny. Although the Braves are defending NL East champs, and our main competition in the race to rebuild, I still despise both the NY Mess and the Washington Gnats infinitely more. Atlanta (sans the annoying tomahawk chop) has my respect if only because they have shown the ability to sustain a well run organization aside from their recent indiscretions. NYM and WAS seem to be the Keystone Cops and the Gang That Couldn’t Shoot Straight. The Marlins are a triple A affiliate.