2018 Draft Discussion: May 20th

This is the Phuture Phillies 2018 Draft Discussion for comments about the upcoming draft.

The Phillies have the third overall selection in the first round.  They forfeited their second and third round picks when they signed free agents Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta.

Their total bonus pool is only $8,858, 500.  Their total was reduced by over $2.25M of slot money with the two picks they lost.

Their complete slot breakdown is as follows (round, pick, $) –

  •   1st:       3  – $6,947,500
  •   4th:   107 –    $522,900
  •   5th:   137 –    $390,600
  •   6th:   167 –    $292,700
  •   7th:   197 –    $228,000
  •   8th:   227 –    $180,600
  •   9th:   257 –    $153,600
  • 10th:   287 –    $142,600

The AAC tournament begins on Tuesday, May 22nd.  USF (Shane McClanahan) and Wichita State (Alec Bohm) are seeded 2nd and 7th respectively.  They will face each other in a first round game Wednesday at 11:00 AM.  It is a double elimination tournament.  and (Hinkie, I just could not bring myself to deprive you of this forum for your draft observations.  The AAC tournament will be at Spectrum Field May 22-27.  I have tickets.  Let me now if there is anyone to watch in addition to USF’s Shane McClanahan.)

This is a forum for draft discussion to keep it separate from other conversations.

143 thoughts on “2018 Draft Discussion: May 20th

  1. Jim … thanks for this thread. Love the draft talk.

    Wichita State closed out it’s regular season with a weekend series at Memphis State. Alec Bohm went 4 for 13 (2 doubles & HR), 2 BB’s, 2 K’s, 3 R’s, 1 RBI. He also committed a throwing error. For the season, Bohm is slashing .332/.433/.616, 15 HR. Bohm will be in Clearwater to take part in the American Athletic Conference Championship Tournament at Spectrum Field beginning tomorrow. Maybe Jim will provide a scouting report.

    Nick Madrigal was in Los Angeles for a weekend clash with USC. Madigal went 3 for 12 (double & triple), 1 BB, 1 HBP, 4 RBI’s and 4 SB’s. BTW … The All American 2Bman tallied 2 of those hits Friday night against Phillies 2017 34th round draft pick Kyle Hurt (who obviously didn’t sign). Madrigal is now at .435/.496/.620 this season.

    Joey Bart and Georgia Tech closed out their regular season this weekend. They hosted Duke for three games. Bart went 4 for 10, (double & HR), 4 BB’s, 3 K’s, 4 R’s, 2 RBI’s. Bart is sitting at .368/.481/.651, 16 HR’s. Vinnie Cervino of Perfect Game got a good look at Bart’s HR Friday night.

    And … Keith Law is reporting the Tigers are still considering Bart for their 1-1 selection.

    Which leads me to Casey Mize. Mize is having the greatest pitching season in college baseball since Stephen Strasburg in 2009. For the season Mize is 95 IP, 65 H, 10 BB, 133 K, .189 OBA. It’s looking like there is at least a possibility the Auburn “ace” could still slip to the Phillies at 1-3. Let’s hope. Mize (and Brady Singer) had the weekend off to get ready for the SEC tournament that begins tomorrow night.

    1. BTW … Keith Law later tweeted the Tigers are also keeping an eye on Jarred Kelenic.

      Let’s hope Bart or Kelenic are open to some kind of deal that would save the Tigers mucho dinero … “an offer they can’t refuse”

    2. Univ of Memphis . . . Sorry that’s where I went to school, never sounds right hearing Memphis State . . . (I know that it used to be Memphis State but that was 20 plus years ago)

  2. Wanted to speculate on who the Phillies might take (more accurately … who I really like) with their second pick (4th round). After looking at multiple draft prospect lists, I have put together a short list of possibiliies. These are guys who may be available at the top of the fourth round:

    * Gage Canning has been a guy I have been hoping for (and posting about) for weeks. According to Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen, the Cubs like/have been heavily scouting the Arizona State CF’er. IMO, he may be the most exciting player in college baseball. Canning is slashing .379/.436/.670 this year. He is an XBH machine (16 doubles, 11 triples, 8 HR’s), with an ISO of .283 (better than both Bohm and Bart). As Romus mentioned last week, Canning’s K rate is hgih (career 21.87%) and BB rate is low (career 6.47%). Those stats are the reason he may be available when the Phillies pick at the top of the 4th round. I’m personally not confident Canning will make it to pick #107, but multiple lists have him available there.

    * Hogan Harris is a LHSP from Louisiana Lafayette, and I’m a big fan. Harris has a plus FB. He hit 98 in his only relief appearance this season. As a starter he typically sits 90-94 T95. Frankie Piliere (formerly of D1 Baseball.com) liked his CB and SL after seeing him on the Cape last summer. Here’s a piece of Piliere’s report:
    “Where Harris might be able to separate himself from other lefties in the country is with his ability to spin the breaking ball. Harris has multiple variations of his slider and curveball and can manipulate them as needed as his outings move along. He threw his curveball anywhere between 69-76 mph and threw his slider between 78-81 mph. He can vary the shape and showed he could put both these pitches on either side of the plate. Some of his harder curveballs were his best offerings of the summer, showing above-average bite and depth.”
    This season, Harris’ results have not quite matched his stuff (mostly control related issues) … 53.1 IP, 46 H, 27 BB, 47 K, .242 OBA.

    * Elijah Cabell is a high ceiling HS OF’er. The Phillies are lacking 2nd and 3rd round picks (and the bonus money they come with), which will mean it may be harder to put together the kind of offer it may take to lure Cabell from his LSU commitment. However, if Johnny Almaraz can move around money from other picks to meet Cabell’s price, I’d be more than happy. Here’s Cabell’s report from Perfect Game.org:
    “Elijah Cabell is a 2018 OF/3B with a 6-2 190 lb. frame from Winter Park, FL who attends TNXL Academy. Big and strong athletic build, pretty mature physically. Playing with a minor knee injury and not at full speed, has run 6.62 in the past. Outstanding outfield arm strength with plus on line carry, long and easy arm action, has 100 mph in his arm. Right handed hitter, nice shift into contact, easy bat speed, hits off a hard front side, very strong hands, ball makes a different sound off the barrel, elite level bat speed with big power to all fields, hits easy and hits it hard. Classic right field tools with a high ceiling.”

    1. Gage Canning from earlier this season:

      Hogan Harris nearly unhittable out of the BP as a freshman:

      1. Hinkie, you (and that video) sold me on Canning. Kid looks smooth as silk. What are his weaknesses? And why wouldn’t he be selected much earlier in the draft?

        1. The biggest knock on Canning is his ability to make contact. Like I mentioned above, if his K rate was closer to his BB rate, he’d be a first rounder. IMO … he’d be a HR pick at the top of the 4th round.
          For me … Canning swings the bat like/runs like/covers CF like Lenny Dykstra.

  3. Jim … In addition to Shane McClanahan and Alec Bohm … Bohm’s teammate Greyson Jenista (1B/OF) is going to be a first round pick. UConn LHSP Tim Cate is on the smaller side, but has one of the best CB’s in the draft. He’ll go late first/early second.
    Jonathan Bowlan (RHP Memphis), Codi Heuer (RHP Wichita State), Zac Susi (C UConn), Trey Cumbie (LHP Houston), and JJ Montgomery (RHP UCF) are all guys who could/should be day two picks.

    1. Hinkie I take your word but I think Bohms has a big chance to be a bust. he scares me. rather take

      1. rocco … for me, If Mize doesn’t slip to 1-3, I’d draft Madrigal. I understand the theory of picking the guy (Bohm) with the sky high ceiling, I just love Madrigal’s consistency. He also affects the game in so many ways.

  4. Many have commented with praise at the Phillies excellence with international signees and how talented their international team are. Though I may be very mistaken I thought that it has been mentioned that in the domestic draft specific people for the Phils cover different regions… or perhaps different conferences. Assuming that is true, I wonder if it is possible to look back over past drafts gems and bombs in terms of geographic regions and use that to get an idea of what people/regions are more likely to be successful.

    1. Regional success – Arizona, northern California, and to some extent the NY Long Island area (interesting guys but none have really become anything yet). They are missing big time in the draft hot-spots- Florida, Texas, So-Cal, Georgia. They did some scouting restructuring this past winter to give Brad Holland (the Arizona scout) more regional oversight, and hired some new guys – so fingers crossed.

  5. When looking at college stats, remember that two big factors inflate all numbers.
    1. Metal bats
    2. Crappy pitchers

    So when you see Bohm’s batting average of .333, that actually is a pretty mediocre number. To put that number in perspective, there are 250 other hitters in the NCAA Division 1 who have a batting average of .335 or higher. https://www.ncaa.com/stats/baseball/d1/current/individual/200/p5

    the NCAA site only has 151 players listed for OB%, but all of them have an OB% above .443, which is higher than Bohm’s .435 https://www.ncaa.com/stats/baseball/d1/current/individual/504/p3

    70 players have a higher slugging percentage than him https://www.ncaa.com/stats/baseball/d1/current/individual/321/p2

    Add in the reports that he is unlikely to stay at 3rd base defensively and that feels like an absolute disaster of a draft pick to me.

    Nothing special in Bohm to me, but I am not a scout, so maybe they see something in him…as they did Moniak I guess.

  6. When looking at college stats, remember that two big factors inflate all numbers.
    1. Metal bats
    2. Bad pitchers

    So when you see Bohm’s batting average of .333, that actually is a pretty mediocre number. To put that number in perspective, there are 250 other hitters in the NCAA Division 1 who have a batting average of .335 or higher.

    the NCAA site only has 151 players listed for OB%, but all of them have an OB% above .443, which is higher than Bohm’s .435

    70 players have a higher slugging percentage than him

    Add in the reports that he is unlikely to stay at 3rd base defensively and that feels like an absolute disaster of a draft pick to me.

    Nothing special in Bohm to me, but I am not a scout, so maybe they see something in him…as they did Moniak I guess.

      1. v1again,

        What do you think of Bohm’s performance in the wooden-bat Cape Cod league last summer where he hit 351 with a 912 OPS and made the all-star team?

          1. And he was batting against mostly (some of the better) upper classmen arms in the country.
            That said, I would still pick Madrigal if Mize isn’t available.

        1. Cape is the best league there is wooden bats best talent . What V 1 didn’t say was Bohm k rate ball rate outstanding.

          1. It’s with wooden bats against the best pitchers in college . Its worth more then any college season. Many hitting prospects lose alot of money in that league . Seth Beer comes to mind.
            Bohm had over 150 ATbats in Cape cod. He has just over 200 in this college season. Where is the short sample ?
            Logan Davidson was a former Phillies draft choice . Outstanding first yr at Clemson .
            He gets to cape Cod on the same team as Bohm last yr his avg .216 wooden is the key .

    1. He is in a weak conference…or I should say a weaker one than the big conferences of the SEC/PAC12/ACC and Big12…so the pitchers could be very ordinary.

      1. Romus …I heard (while watching a Wichita State game) a couple of weeks ago, the AAC is rated the 3rd best conference this season. Don’t know where the announcer got that info. The conference does have a good amount of day one and day two draft pitchers this year. You can see the names I have listed further above in this thread.

        1. Hinkie…well I guess that is a plus if the Phillies actually draft Bohm.
          Sometimes the conferences could have an over abundance of junior pitchers, which with their experience will fare better in non-conference settings and also in conference games.
          But curious to see when the CWS starts up, how many of the AAC teams qualify and how many advance past the regionals.

          1. As of today, D1 Baseball.com projects 5 AAC teams in the field of 64. That ties for third most. SEC (11 teams), ACC (6 teams), AAC, BIG 12, and BIG 10 (all with 5 teams). I should also note, Wichita State is not one of the 5 AAC schools on track to make the tournament.

            1. Tim….I think what v1 is getting at above:
              2. Bad pitchers,
              ….he may be facing lesser skilled pitchers on a frequent basis than say a hitter like Mardirgal in the PAC12 or even a player like India in the SEC.

          2. India didnt far well with the bats Wooden .
            Bohm 7 % bb 12% k in Cape Cod
            India hit .273 with little power . 398 slg

  7. Mize, Madrigal, Singer are my 3. Then Bart. I don’t think Bohm stays at 3B, so that lessens his value to me. Madrigal is the much better hitter, and I believe that will translate to the Majors. Singer has stayed healthy for 3 years so the concerns coming out of HS, I believe, have been alleviated. Mize is #1, and it would be great if the Tigers and Giants talk themselves into someone else.

  8. I really really hope they don’t take bohm., We cant afford another bad first round pick, picking again in top ten. I am starting to think Mize is the safe pick

    1. rocco…he would be the safest pick…and a hitter for sure, not much power, perhaps 45/50…and just maybe make him a catcher, Since his only defensive position is second base. And we have plenty of them to go around.

  9. Romus, here is the dilemma, If Madrigal is the BPA, then how do we take Bohm, who does not have nearly the same hit tool, and may very well have to go to 1B? I don’t want a mistake at 1.3. Which is why I value Singer more than Bohm as well as Madrigal.

    1. matt13…..decision will be a difficult one to make. Reports have the Phillies looling more at Bohm than Madrigal…..does that mean they will Bohm over Madrigal….maybe not.
      Man it would be great if the Tigers or Giants do a surprise pick.

    2. I think Bohm could probably handle LF if he outgrows 3B. Then the Phillies would have to decide where Bohm & Hoskins play after Santana’s deal ends after 2020. That said, I would still draft Madrigal over Bohm.

      1. One other point … I don’t think the Phillies will draft Bohm at 1-3 if they don’t feel he can remain a 3Bman … and … with that said, I would still draft Madrigal if Mize isn’t available.

  10. Given Bohm’s pedestrian college stats, the pro-Bohm camp is focusing solely on his Cape Cod league stats. And those are good stats to be sure. He had a very good summer league.

    But if you are going to treat Cape Cod stats as gospel, then that makes the case that Brady Singer should be drafted ahead of Bohm as Brady’s Cape stats were exceptional – 0.82 ERA, 20-2 K to BB ratio, zero homers given up. Just elite across the board.

    I am not a scout. I don’t pretend to be a scout. I know there is more to prospects than stats. I am just pointing out that Bohm’s actual performance do not match those of stars in the past.

    But here is a counter point…”Setting aside the two players who have not yet established themselves—Colin Moran (2013) and Nick Senzel (2016)—all but one of the college third basemen from this sample [college third basemen have been selected with a top-10 pick in the 31 drafts since 1987] went on to star in the big leagues.”

    https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/numbers-game-third-is-the-word/

    So maybe it is as simple as taking a top college 3b prospect.

    1. The oddity about that list…..look at the first group from ’88 thu 2008…..most all had to come off third base to either first base or LF..
      Some immediately in the minors, and there were many after 3/4 seasons in the majors

        1. In my opinion, if Mize doesn’t drop to 1-3, give me the best hit took, preferably with more power. I really don’t care what position he plays. Figure it out later.

          1. Nick Madrigal can play 5 positions really well. he has a 3.67% K rate. I can’t recall seeing a k rate so low. his hit tool is off the charts. his power is not good at all. but his contact skills are exceptional. truly elite.

            1. Absolutely agree on Madrigal. If Mize isn’t available at 1-3, I would pick Nick Madrigal (as I’ve posted numerous times in this thread). Hand-eye coordination is outstanding. He recognizes pitches, and attacks the ball with quick wrists. And the kid just affects the game in so many ways. Doesn’t matter that they have CeHe and Scott Kingery already. Just draft the bets player.

    2. BTW … the Phillies probably won’t be drafting high enough to cash in, but there is a bumper crop of college 3Bmen available in the 2019 draft:
      Josh Jung (Texas Tech)
      Bryson Stott (UNLV)
      Drew Mendoza (Fla St)

      My waaay too early prediction for the Phillies 2019 first round pick is ….. Andrew Vauhn (Cal). He is an offensive juggernaut ! In his two seasons at Cal, Vaughn is .373/.471/.684 (including .406/.538/.855 , 21 HR’s this season). How does a player like this fall to the second half of the first round ? He’s a 5’11” RH hitting 1Bman.

  11. I like Libby, but best available college player is the pick the makes most sense at 1.3 – Bohm, Madrigal or Bart if he falls at 1.3.

    I have a gut feeling that Libby will be drafted by the Braves and Libby will develop into a pitcher better than Cole Hamels and join that deep stable of arms in ATL. Mets used to worry me with their pitching stuff, but looks like Thor will be the only reliable arm that they will have when the Phils are ready to take over the NL East.

    With the last 3 drafts and some trades, ATL built a deep well of high end arms although none of them have the higher ceiling than Sixto (and possibly Medina if he is really better than Mize). Philly will be the better choice for FA than ATL because of the market and the Phils deeper pockets. PHI vs ATL rivalry will come upon us again and it looks like its starting now.

    1. Assuming Mize isn’t on the board at 1-3, I’ve been on Bohm mainly because of his power and impressive hit tool, though Madrigal’s is considered elite without the thump. But what about Bart if he’s sitting there? I’m suddenly conflicted X3.

      Hinkie has finally begun to sway me toward Madrigal but I would like to hear/see more views on Bart.

      1. For me … I’d stay away from a catcher that high. Catchers are almost as risky as pitchers.

  12. kurdt, you are correct in that the braves stable looks very good. i’d hate to see them get liberatore, because i want him. if not mize, then him.

  13. So much draft info from Kiley McDaniel’s chat today. Here are a few Q & A’s that are more Phillies centric:

    Jim in Chicago: If Casey Mize doesn’t go #1, where does he end up?
    Kiley McDaniel: This seems to be the question of the moment. Detroit is seriously thinking about other options at 1-1, and the talk of this got around right after out mock came up. The specifics about what medicals Mize has shared, what Detroit has, what other teams have and what those medicals say is a little hazy and some of the answers are protected by HIPAA so we won’t get everything we would like to know pre draft.
    What we do know is that Mize pitches like a 27 year old Japanese starter (lots of cutters and splitters), which is good in that he’s a finished product, good in the sense that he’s good in a unique way, not so good in the sense that he likely won’t get better. And he has enough of an injury history that we have to question (more than any other arm at the top of the draft) how teams may react to medical info that we will not be able to see.
    So If he doesn’t go 1-1, it would be due to projecting his health and once he slides past 1, it’s unclear where he would stop because we don’t know what the info would be that caused him to slide. BUT Using Jeff Hoffman or Mark Appel as a guide, in general an injury/signability concern slides you to the back of the top tier, which is about 5-7 players, so I would assume he still goes comfortably in the top 10 even if the medical is gruesome, which I don’t think it is.

    Adam D.: What do you think the timetable would be for Bart? Big league debut in 2020?
    Kiley McDaniel: Only issue holding him back would be contact and catcher/shortstops often get promoted before completely dominating a level if the glove is ready. I’d say yes.

    Snapper Bean: Still think the Phillies are locked in on Bohm at 3?
    Kiley McDaniel: Yep, still could change but that’s been the buzz on them for over a month.

    Hinkie: If the Tigers end up passing on Casey Mize for a well below slot deal with somebody else, do the Giants jump all over Mize or will they also look for an underslot deal ? I guess this is a long way of asking … how possible is it Mize falls to the Phillies at 1-3 ???
    Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know how things play out if Mize doesn’t go 1-1, but one team in the top 5 told me if the Tigers could be this on Mize and get off him for medicals, we’re probably not gonna like it either and there’s still plenty of good players to choose from. An exec in the top 10 told me if he’s 1-1 he just cuts Madrigal and takes him over retail priced Mize.
    Out of the top 5, that gamble on a hypothetical Mize with a bad medical makes more sense with the top tier off the board. All speculative at this point and it is possible that this is all a smokescreen from Detroit but we’ve talked to some people that would know and they’re convinced the Tigers are at least heavily shopping around for alternative, at least one very plugged in person think they’ve already moved on from Mize.

    Hinkie: Thoughts on Hogan Harris. Where does he get selected ?
    Kiley McDaniel: Got a good report on him a few weeks ago, has been up to 97 in relief, starter look once he got the chance, 3rd-5th area.

    Bravesy McBravesface: How likely is it that Joey Bart actually goes 1-1 now? Is Alec Bohm a possibility at 1-1? Has Mize’s rough last couple of outings caused any uncertainty?
    Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think Mize’s performance is the factor here. It may be 60/40 Mize/Bart at this point.

    Dunt: How does Madrigal’s profile change if he’s moved to SS? Does his arm play there?
    Kiley McDaniel: It should be fine, it’s more tools than Eckstein and he made it work, Madrigal has comparable feel for the game, he just isn’t a platonic ideal there.

    1. Hinkie…interesting , he seems to think there is more medical uncertainty surrounding Mize, than say Singer. Then again Singer;s name he was not brought up in that particular conversation.
      Still if he is there at 3…I’d grab him.

      I’d be leaning away from Bohm now….based primarily on v1’s analysis this morning.

      1. Romus … McDaniel had good things to say about Hogan Harris. He’s one of the three guys I mentioned for pick #107 (4th round). Sounds like Harris and Gage Canning could be available there.

  14. I still think it’s going to come down to next couple of weeks. Bohm is the Phillies guy right now but with the championship’s coming up and the NCAA tournament things could change.

    1. Tim ….the draft is in 13 days…they better hurry up and make their evaluations. The conference playoffs will start and be well into it by the draft…but the CWS starts June 16th with regionals just prior.

          1. the “new” roccom likes Madrigal, but the “old” roccom doesn’t want to draft the small guy.

            1. Kurt I am so scared of bohm, I am looking for a sure thing and this little guy is the closest I have read to a sure thing. I just don’t want to miss on another first round pick.

            2. @roccom – the prospect that will worry me at 1.3 is lefty OF. Johnny A. drafted a lefty OF at pick 1 for the last 3 drafts and he is not smiling.

  15. Hinkie…maybe you will get your wish and Madrigal falls to three, and the Phillies will select him.
    Pedroia, Altuve, Albies … Madrigal?
    Oregon State second baseman Nick Madrigal has aced the elements of the pre-Draft examination that he can control. He was the Pac-10’s Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year as a sophomore. He broke his hand early in this junior season, only to recover and hit, as of this writing, .435 with a .620 slugging percentage. Teammates laud him as a leader. His coach unabashedly insists Madrigal could go straight from the Beavers to the big leagues. In contact, speed and defensive ability, in instincts and energy and collegiate accomplishment, he checks off pretty much all the boxes you’d want completed by a prominent pick.
    https://www.mlb.com/news/at-5-foot-7-nick-madrigal-a-top-5-draft-pick/c-277803248

    1. People didn’t think that Jose Altuve or Mookie Betts would have power when they were in the minors either. How is Madrigal’s plate discipline/walk percentage?

  16. Hinkie, you have me convinced I want Gage Canning with their 2d pick I want that 1.3 pick to be an All Star, so I am in on Madrigal, and they can figure out who plays where later on. His hit tool is that elite.

  17. The ACC Tournament got underway Tuesday. Keith Law reports all eyes were on Joey Bart.

    BTW … Bart went 0 for 4 (2 K’s) vs Pitt.

  18. “The Athletic” publication mock draft – Phils take Madrigal with no. 3 pick. Mize, Bart precede him with Bohm 4th pick.

        1. Melissa I know her. she was the editor of Romus school paper. He knows her well, I don’t think she talks to romus anymore.

  19. Wichita State doubled up South Florida today 4 – 2. Alec Bohm was 2 for 5, w/2 RBI’s (including a go-ahead double in the 7th inning). He K’d once and stole his ninth base of the season. Bohm’s numbers included a single in 3 AB’s vs Shane McClanahan. McClanahan was 5 IP (110 P), 1 R, 5 H, 5 BB, 6 K.

    this had to be an excellent opportunity for the Phillies to scout Bohm since it was played in Clearwater at Spectrum Field. I’m sure they had all their Statcast equipment in use at their own ballpark to measure Bohm’s launch angles, exit velos, etc.

      1. Hinkie how hard you think that pitcher was throwing about 86 but had a good breaking ball. I am not sold on this kid. His swing bothers me. I don’t think he has great bat speed. plus he made 14 errors. leads the team I believe in less than 200 chances. 887 percentage fielding.

        1. rocco … as I’ve mentioned a few dozen times, I’d draft Mize or Madrigal, but I could understand the Phillies picking Bohm because of the high ceiling he comes with (not to mention his excellent K/BB rate).

    1. Here’s Bohm’s 9th inning blast.

      Bohm and the Shockers play SFU again tomorrow morning.
      It’s possible he could be back playing at Spectrum Field again as early as later this summer … as a Clearwater Thresher.

      1. BTW … for the day (DH) … Bohm (in front of plenty of Phillies personnel) went 5 for 9 (double & HR), 2 BB, 1 R, 3 RBI, 1 SB.

      2. yes he could…short stint with the GCL team like Haseley did…then ff to Williamsport and then who knows where…..but could also be Madrigal following same path.

  20. Aside from following the 2018 draft, I like to keep track of former Phllies’ draft picks who didn’t sign. May they one day get drafted by the Phllies again ?
    A couple of those former picks had HUGE games for their college teams yesterday. Billy Sullivan was a 28th round selection last year. I thought the young pitcher from a Delaware HS was a lock to sign because:
    1. He grew up a Phillies (and Eagles) fan
    2. Johnny Almarez had the kid in to CBP a few days before the draft for a meeting and bullpen session.
    In the end, Sullivan decided to keep his commitment to the U of Delaware, though he tweeted that he hoped to be a Phillie one day. The 6’2″ RHP has been very good for the Blue Hens in his freshman season (72.2 IP, 52 H, 45 BB, 95 K, .199 OBA). Yesterday, in a possible season ending elimination game, Sullivan out-dueled a kid from Hofstra (LHP John Rooney) who leads the NCAA in ERA and is a likely 2nd round pick in two weeks. Sullivan went 7 IP (113 P), 1 R, 3 H, 2 BB, 11 K !!!

    Meanwhile, 2016 30th round pick Logan Davidson went wild for Clemson. The switch hitting SS homered from each side of the plate in the same inning in a Clemson rout of Notre Dame.

    Davidson is a near lock to be a first round draft pick (probably top 10 selection) next season.
    That 2019 draft is going to be loaded with top shelf college infielders (Davidson, Josh Jung, Drew Mendoza, Bryson Stott, Nick Quintana, Braden Shewmake).

    1. Daniel palka is playing with Chicago. I Remember that name. I believe we drafted him out of high school. but he wouldn’t sign.

  21. Alec Bohm’s college career came to an end this morning when Wichita State lost to South Florida 7-2. Bohm finished his time as a Shocker going 1 for 4 w/3 K’s.

  22. Keith Law has released his updated Top 100 Prospects for next month’s MLB Draft. It’s not a mock. It’s just his ranking of the best players. http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/23583441/casey-mize-tops-mlb-draft-class

    1. Casey Mize
    2. Carter Stewart
    3. Matt Liberatore
    4. Travis Swaggerty
    5. Alec Bohm
    6. Jarred Kelenic
    7. Cole Winn
    8. Ryan Weathers
    9. Jonathan India
    10. Joey Bart
    11. Nick Madrigal
    12. Nolan Gorman
    21. Brady Singer
    29. Kumar Rocker
    30. Seth Beer
    31. Ethan Hankins

    Of the three possible targets I listed earlier in this thread for the Phillies 4th round pick (#107), only HS OF’er Elijah Cabell made the Law’s list at #99. So … maybe Gage Canning and Hogan Harris are available for the Phillies with their second pick.

    BTW … here’s what KLaw wrote about some of the guys most talked about here:

    Mize – The clear 1-1 talent in this draft, Mize brings only the risk associated with any starting pitcher who has had minor injuries in the past — though he’s never had the catastrophic breakdown that might truly affect his stock. He’ll pitch at 92-96 with a plus-plus splitter and plus slider, and he has shown absurd control, with just 10 walks and 133 strikeouts in 95 innings heading into the SEC tournament. As long as he stays healthy, Mize is a No. 1 starter, and he should be able to contribute in the majors this fall or at the beginning of next season. He’d be the easy choice for me if I held the first overall pick.

    Liberatore – Liberatore touched 97 in his first outing this spring but doesn’t pitch there and seemed like a disappointment when he settled in with average to above-average velocity — but at that level, he’s still the best lefty in the draft class, showing good spin on a breaking ball, feel for a changeup and more advanced command and feel for pitching than most prep arms this year. His biggest issue has been pitching from the stretch, where he’s too quick to the plate and loses his release point too much, but that’s easily remedied. Liberatore still has projection on his 6-foot-5 frame and might eventually get into the mid-90s regularly, but his floor is higher than most teenaged arms because he can pitch well now with average velocity.

    Bohm – Bohm projects to hit for average and for power, with a simple swing that has the right angle to produce real power even with the wood bat. He has hit 15 homers this year and walked 38 times against 24 strikeouts while playing solid competition in the far-flung AAC. He’s a good athlete for a big kid and has plenty of arm for third base, but there’s a chance he outgrows the position in pro ball.

    Bart – Bart is a plus defensive catcher with a 70 arm and 70 raw power, and he’s a better athlete than most catchers, a 40 runner who moves well behind the plate and shows soft hands. He has some length in his swing and has struck out 52 times heading into this week’s ACC tournament, raising some concerns about whether he’ll hit for much average. Even so, he’s a valuable regular even if he’s hitting .240 with power and a handful of walks, given his defensive and positional value, but perhaps not a star.

    Madrigal – Madrigal missed about 25 games with a wrist injury but has performed when he has played, hitting .435/.496/.620 in 123 PA, with just four strikeouts this spring. He’s an above-average runner whose arm and footwork limit him to second base, and at 5-foot-8, 165 pounds, he doesn’t have or project to even fringy power. However, he has consistently been among the best hitters in college baseball since arriving at OSU and is one of the highest-probability big leaguers in the draft class.

    Gorman – Gorman has the best raw power in the class, grade 80 from the left side, though he has become a little too power-happy this spring and hasn’t hit as well as expected even against mediocre competition. He’s a third baseman now but would need substantial work to stay on the dirt and might end up in right field. If he hits enough just to get to the power, it won’t really matter where he plays.

    Singer – Singer has been famous since high school, when the Blue Jays took him in the comp round, but the two sides couldn’t come to an agreement, so he matriculated at Florida and was an impact freshman in a swing role. Singer has performed well as a full-time starter the past two years, taking over Friday nights this year from Alex Faedo, though the stuff and delivery are both real negatives on his pro outlook. Singer will touch 95 but has pitched at 90-92 both times I’ve seen him, showing two breaking balls with a slider that’s occasionally plus, but no changeup to speak of and real difficulty with left-handed batters. He has a short arm action that he repeats well but that puts stress on his shoulder, though his low 3/4 slot makes him very tough on right-handers. Some teams think he’s a high-upside starter; I think it’s more likely he’s an impact reliever.

    1. If Mize is gone and Bohm is available, he should be the pick. The more I read about him, the more I like. He’s got a decent floor and more upside than any other non-high school hitter in the draft.

      Bart sounds a lot like Alfaro with more polished defensive skills in that report.

    2. Thanks for posting this, Hinkie. Excellent resource if not the consensus among many insiders.

    3. Libby!!! I’ve been screaming arms for the last 4 drafts!!! Mize is my #1 since he’s the BPA, fills a need and closer to contribute to the major league team.

      With the underwhelming result from the former top 10 picks – the Phils need to hit the 1.3 this coming draft.

      I used to like Singer before, but without a solid CU and difficulties against leftys, he can be a disaster. I think I’m solve with what the mock drafts are saying – Bohm or Madrigal.

        1. If it is not August 2019…then the questions could arise.
          Both Conforto, Nola and Benintendi made it to the show in 14 months from draft day.
          Not every top ten college picks does it quick.
          .

      1. Swaggerty is a lefty OF. Johnny A. drafted a lefty OF pick #1 for the last 3 drafts which limited success in sight. Maybe Johnny A. need to stay away from lefty OF for now.

        1. rocco … KuKo beat me to it. Swaggerty gets compared to Brett Gardner.
          He had a great sophomore year .356/.484/.571 with 11 homers and 19 stolen bases. He followed that with a very good summer for Team USA .328/.449/.406. This season’s numbers were a little down from his soph season .295/.450.540. Scouts say his BA went down because he was selling out for more power. However, his HR total only increased from 10 last season to 13 this season.
          Plus, I’ve heard he may have some immaturity issues. Not sure what that exactly means, but I don’t think it’s anything too serious.

          1. Haseley’s comp is Brett Gardner too. There will be at least 5 better choices at 1.3 than Swaggerty who I think has a #11-15 pick value.

  23. USA Today reporting that #1 pick is “wide open” Bart in mix with Tigers. I will be very happy if Mize falls to 1.3. And on KLaw’s assessment, he has Madrigal awfully low for a guy with the highest probability of being a Major Leaguer.

    1. (Dream sequence….)late-September – Phillies and Braves in dog fight, face to face in 7 of season’s final 11 games. Final 3 game series at home vs Atlanta. Starting pitchers: Friday – Aaron Nola, Saturday – Jake Arrieta, Sunday – Casey Mize!

  24. Hinkie nice questions on Eric L chat . Everyone keeps saying it’s Bohm then college players with some higb school players mixed In .

    1. Thanks for noticing, Tim. I’m always searching for draft info.

      Hinkie
      Phillies don’t have a second or third round pick. Have you heard of any players they may have an interest in for later in the draft ???
      Eric A Longenhagen
      No. I expect they’ll be college heavy again this year because of a lack of financial flexibility and maybe sprinkle in an interesting HS guy or two in the mid to late rounds. 500-750k type guys.

      1. Lack of Financial Flexibility, What does that mean, I thought they had money to b urn?

        1. rocco….Eric means the slotted money from the pool, is reduced since they lost two high picks.

        1. Tim….what is Bohm’s fielding metrics?
          Senzel was considered a better defensive third basemen.
          Senzel…..Arm: 55 Field: 55
          Bohm…….Arm: 50 Field: 45
          Bohm’s bat might compare to Senzel….but Bohm could be moved off third base by next year.
          And ye another first basemen /LFer in the group!

          1. 887 fielding percentage for Bohm, he is not very good at third. really a great dh prospect.

  25. Senzel when he came out , they were questions weather he could stay at 3 Rd. People Said he was stiff and body was Maxed out already.
    Klaw, Kiley ,Eric L all said Bohm could handle 3rd. I mean with Kapler likes flexible players so Bohm could play 3rd , 1st , LF . Bohm should hit 30 homers a yr without a probelm.

    1. Tim….Senzel was still considered a better 3rd basemen in 2016 than Bohm in 2018…that is the reality of it all.

      1. I didn’t say he wasn’t btw Senzel came out as a SS. The Brewers are going to move Senzel around the diamond like Kingery . They have a young 3 Rd baseman blocking him go figure.

        1. Okay.
          Got it.
          BTW…Senzel is a Red
          And he has been out since May 3rd now, and until his veritgo is under control he will need to sit it out. First time was last August…and now returned three weeks ago.

      1. Hinkie…..you know you do not scout basketball players anymore.
        I see Smith as a 4…..and in fact…heard you are now a Denver Bronco consultant.

    1. Eastman is like the other two Cal State Fullerton pitchers (Eshelman & Seabold) in the Phillies farm system … polished, but doesn’t have a high ceiling.

      I’ve always liked #139 Bryce Montes de Oca. He’s intimidating at 6’7″, 260 lbs (and can get wild). He has a big time FB that he carriers late into games. The Phillies have been good at developing pitchers, De Oca needs development.

      1. Hinkie. sorry if you already talked about this but, any locals you see going in top ten rounds?

        1. Romus nailed it. Mike Siani from Penn Charter. Tim must know Siani. I hear he teaches over there.

          1. There’s some others, too:
            * Brett Kinneman (#148) plays for NC State but is from York.
            * Sean Guilbe (#155) is from the Reading area.
            * Jason Bilous (#193) is from Wilmington.

      2. That’s why I said Eastman I try to think of who the Phillies FO would take. Not what I would take.

  26. In his three drafts as Phillies director of scouting, Johnny Almaraz his hit up the NY area each year for HS pitching (Fanti, Young, Brown). This year, I was speculating who could be an Almaraz target(s). Brandon Neeck (#185) was a kid I was thinking could fit the bill. However, this week he informed teams he won’t sign. He wants to go too college (UVA). The other kid I felt could be a target was Billy Price. He’s a tall LHP from a North Jersey HS (right outside NY). Unfortunately for the kid, he was diagnosed, and has been receiving treatment for cancer this season. He’s made a couple of relief appearances for his team recently, and from what I’ve read, he’s expected to make a full recovery. He’s also committed to UVA, but wouldn’t it be a good story/smart move by the Phillies to use a day three pick on Price and make him a Kyle Young type offer. They could let him recuperate this year, and hope he’s able to go next season. In any event, hope the kid can regain his health, beat cancer, and make it back to the mound soon.

    http://highschoolsports.nj.com/news/article/7597418467077526872/battle-of-a-lifetime-top-pitcher-fights-through-cancer-to-keep-playing-baseball/

    Click on the video at this site to see Billy Price on the mound: http://members.baseballfactory.com/player/billy/price/29efd76df8ee49969cff473d1acbaf85

  27. No I was born in Philly came right over to NJ.All of my family that I know of is from Southwest, upper Darby ,Darby etc.my Dad was the first to cross the Walt Wittman in his family. Now there all over the place in NJ.
    No Hinkie I’m the care taker of my 91Dad who’s on Hospice.

    1. I couldn’t tell you were Penn Charter is really. My Grandfather was a founding father of Malvern.

  28. Almarez came on an interview and said this draft is college pitching focused. He didn’t say anything about 1st pick though .

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