2018 Draft Discussion: May 7th

The Phillies have the third overall selection in the first round.  They forfeited their second and third round picks when they signed free agents Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta.

Their total bonus pool is only $8,858, 500.  Their total was reduced by over $2.25M of slot money with the two picks they lost.

Their complete slot breakdown is as follows (round, pick, $) –

  •   1st:       3  – $6,947,500
  •   4th:   107 –    $522,900
  •   5th:   137 –    $390,600
  •   6th:   167 –    $292,700
  •   7th:   197 –    $228,000
  •   8th:   227 –    $180,600
  •   9th:   257 –    $153,600
  • 10th:   287 –    $142,600

The pre-season top 10 for prospects was –

  1. Brady Singer, RHP
  2. Ethan Hankins, RHP
  3. Matthew Liberatore, LHP
  4. Nolan Gorman, 3B
  5. Shane McClanahan, LHP
  6. Nander De Sedas, SS
  7. Brice Turang, SS
  8. Casey Mize, RHP
  9. Ryan Rolison, LHP
  10. Jackson Kowar, RHP

A recent MLB top 10 listed as follows –

  1. Casey Mize, RHP. Auburn
  2. Carter Stewart, RHP. Prep
  3. Nick Madrigal, 2B. Oregon State
  4. Matthew Liberatore, LHP. Prep
  5. Brady Singer, RHP. Florida
  6. Shane McClanahan, LHP. USF
  7. Travis Swaggerty, OF. South Alabama
  8. Jarred Kelenic, OF. Prep
  9. Joey Bart, C. Georgia Tech
  10. Jonathan India, 3B. Florida

The influx of six new names and the up/down movement among some of the other four prospects after 3-4 months shows how much of a crap shoot that prospect ranking can be.

Nothing else new here from me.  I can’t offer anything to the conversation that you can’t discuss better.  This is just a place to keep all draft discussion undiluted by other conversations.

The comments section in the weekly open discussion had become very large with multiple discussions going on at once.  So, here is a discussion thread for draft talk only.

75 thoughts on “2018 Draft Discussion: May 7th

  1. In the “Phillies Draft Preview” series over at thegoodphight, some recent posts suggest that they’re primarily targeting college bats, though NOT nick madrigal. Leaving Bohm and Swaggerty–and maybe Bart? All three have glaring holes to their game (Bart: speed; Bohm: inability to stick at 3b; Swaggerty: arm strength not ideal for RF), but of the three, I think the most realistic is Bohm.

    All that said, I still think we should be targeting pitchers. Mize (most likely gone), Stewart/Hankins/Liberatore (doubtful they take a hs pitcher at 1.3), or the perpetually underrated Logan Gilbert (my personal favorite).

    1. I’m up.
      Romus … I posted an “All In For Casey Mize” plan last month. Mize’s recent outings have done nothing to dampen my desire to steal him with the 1-3 pick. Klentak/Almaraz need to put together an offer greater than Detroit’s 1-1 slot ($8,096,300). W/O a second and third round pick the Phillies total draft budget is only $8,858,500, but putting together a greater than 1-1 slot offer is still possible. Here’s how:

      1-3 slot ($6,947,500) + 5% overage of total budget ($442,925) + fourth round pick, minus a 50 thousand dollar senior sign ($472,900) + ninth round pick, minus 5 thousand dollar senior sign ($148,600) + tenth round pick, minus 5 thousand senior sign ($137,600) = $8,149,525

      If Klentak and Almaraz promise Casey Mize $8,149,525, Mize tells the Tigers he won’t sign for anything less than that. Obviously, Detroit (and SFG at 1-2) will have the means to meet that price, but both of those clubs have miserable farm systems and might prefer to spread their bonus pool out to sign multiple high end (more expensive) picks in one of the deepest drafts in recent memory.

      Again, there is no guarantee this would work, but it’s worth a try. Last year, the Braves had the 1-5 pick (5.7 million dollar slot). They promised Kyle Wright 7 million dollars (almost 1-2 money). It worked. Wright slid to 1-5 and the braves were happy to overpay (by 1.3 million dollars) Wright to get him at 1-5.

      Of course this plan means the Phillies (already w/o a 2nd & 3rd rounder) would be basically also giving up their 4th, 9th, and 10th rounders. And would mean the Phils could not sign any up-side HSP’s (like Fanti or Young) on day three. It’s a “Putting All Your Eggs In One (Mize) Basket” strategy, but this club has the depth in their farm system to try it.

    1. Bohm: Hit: 55… Power: 55 … Run: 35… Arm: 50…Field: 45
      I sure hope he can play third base….because he looks like a future 1st basemen or LFer….and the Phillies are pretty well inventoried with them.

      And that run grade is really poor.

        1. Yeah…his bat plays big it appears.
          I guess you can move Hoskins back to first and put Bohm in LF if he cannot stay at third.
          Then what that really means is, you have now drafted 4 straight OFers in the first round …all top ten picks.
          Sheeesh…oh the humanity of it all!

  2. Every time I read that the Phillies are targeting a “college bat” all that I think about is how terrible of a job they have done drafting the past 3 years. In JA’s three drafts, he has taken 16 position players out of the top 10 picks each year (so 16 out of 30). He looks like he hit on one pick (Kingery) although the jury is still out on him. The rest look like busts. I will give Haseley more time, but there is really nothing that any of the other 15 picks are showing that look Elite. I believe Moniak is a bust. I can’t predict the future, but his performance is abismal, and it is extremely hard to find a comp of a good MLB player who struggled as much as Mickey has in A ball. If Moniak was put back in the draft this year, I doubt he is even chosen. There is nothing special about his bat, even though we were promised “an advanced hit tool that doesn’t need projection.” I mean, is it possible to get a scouting report more wrong? Mickey has 33 Ks and 2 walks in 119 PAs. That is not an “advanced bat”. That is an impatient hitter who struggles to make contact.

    I have zero confidence in Johnny Almarez. And zero confidence that we will draft someone good under his watch. Sorry to be Debbie Downer. I just don’t think that the guy making the picks knows what he is doing. So the result is we will take the highest floor guy as a safe pick. The fans should revolt and try to get Almarez fired. He is awful at drafting players.

    1. Not to defend Almaraz but are we certain he stands alone in these picks, especially the 1st rounders? All I heard was how Gillick, Uncle Cholly and who knows who else made special trips to watch these kids.

      1. IMO blaming a GM for a bad draft pick is not the right approach. A GM relies primarily on scouting reports. Almarez is the head scout. The GM doesn’t take Moniak if Almarez’s scouting report says, “kid can’t hit.” Rather JA said, “70 hit tool with no projection needed.” Any GM would make that pick if he believed the Report. You blame JA for missing so badly on the report. Not MK for making the pick.

        1. We can all theorize about what the hell happened and whose fault it is (I believe it’s likely JA’s fault too, at least in large part – but what if MacPhail and others insisted on a consensus pick and overruled JA? We’ll never know), but what is crystal clear to me is that, for these first round picks, the overall system that the Phillies are employing is massively flawed and needs to be sorted out and fixed BEFORE the next pick is taken. And regardless of whose fault it is, if this next pick is screwed up, JA (who was not hired by the current administration – they owe him no loyalty and are not responsible for his being there) will almost certainly lose his job and I’m okay with that. It is hard to articulate just how massive the first round mistakes have been over the last three years – you just can’t go 0 for 3 on top ten picks over a 3 year period – it’s like all that losing was for nothing.

          1. I think the worst of the three picks was actually Randolph (although you can make a decent argument for MM because I don’t think THEY believed MM was the BPA). Unless you think Randolph’s a generational talent in terms of his hit tool (and I never heard that said about him), picking a HS hitter, without power who has limited athletic ability and is automatically relegated to left field with a top 10 pick reflects a severe flaw in methodology. You don’t use a top 10 pick on a guy who has that much risk and that low of ceiling – it’s stupid.

            1. Agreed. There were plenty of scouts/ FO personnel who thought MM was in the conversation for 1.1. Taking a HS hitter with limited to no athletic ability who needs to immediately move to LF – a hitter with no power mind you – is a mind bender to say the least. Randolph is simply an ungodly bad pick.

            2. And the saddest thing is – for all his current failures, Randolph may be the only one of the three that actually makes it to the major leagues and sticks because I think he does have some hitting ability, but his failure in AA has been catastrophic and very unexpected (he actually had a decent year last year in Clearwater and typically hitting translates well from that level to AA/Eastern League – it’s a mystery as to what happened).

            3. IMO, I believe Amaro was leaning hitter and with that in mind looking at Happ at ten, and Theo snatched him up at nine..so they could have scrambled and took Randolph.

      2. So Gillick and Charlie make the picks that decide the the scouts and fo future Interesting. I Have no confidence in this fo. OMG. if they continue this trend with the great high picks we have, we could be bad for years to come. Even babe ruth, kingery looks overmatched, and we gave him that money. What in gods name made them pick moniak , so much better talent in that draft. Middleton is really starting to get to me. make a move. Get a gm who knows how to win.

      3. Yes. “Too many cooks …”
        Klentak, Manuel, and Gillick have all had their fingerprints on the Moniak and Haseley picks. Almaraz’s second round picks have been good (IMO). If you are going to question Kingery (“the jury is still out” comment), then you’re not going to give a thumbs up to many picks by any Scouting Director throughout the league over the past three years. Gowdy has been injured. He had no history of arm troubles in HS, and he got high marks for his repeatable delivery. I still have hopes for a Jesus Luzardo outcome for him. Spencer Howard has been very impressive so far. I understand you are complaining about his selection of bats. In that regard, you make a valid point. His third rounders have not panned out. The Justin Williams pick was an absolute head-scratcher. Cole Stobbe has been disappointing (although … he, at least, came with a pedigree as a member of U18 Team USA).
        In fairness to Almaraz, it looks like he may have hit on some day 3 picks in Darick Hall and Edgar Cabral. Ben Pelletier was a completely under the radar selection, and Nick Maton (7th rounder from last year) is interesting.
        The point is … IMO, Almaraz is only part of the process in the first round. His second rounders have been good. After the second round, it’s pretty much hit and mostly miss throughout the league. You’ve got to give the guy some credit for his later round selections of Nick Fanti and Kyle Young. He picked a couple of kids late last year (wasn’t able to sign them) that I don’t think were even rated, but look good in college so far. I’m talking about Billy Sullivan (28th round) and Edoard Julien (37th round). So, I think he does have an eye for talent.

        I hope Klentak, Gillick, and Manuel stay away from the process, and let Almaraz have full say on this year’s 1-3 pick. I think the odds of that pick being a “winner” will be much higher that way.

        1. By the way, regardless of how much any of us blames JA, I think we all agree that the consensus system and the use of Gillick and Manuel and other “consultants” has likely contributed to (or directly caused) these screw ups. If I were Middleton – I’d be issuing some pretty stern warnings to folks about the importance of this draft and how the player at 1/3 will be chosen. It’s infuriating.

    2. I think I’m just about where you are with JA too. Even if you give him credit for guys like Kingery and Hall, I think his drafting strategy – at least with hitters – has been abysmal and I’m not too fond of his reluctance to draft hard throwers (although I really like Spencer Howard). JA’s M.O. has been to find guys who have baseball specific skills with good hit tools and the hope is that they will grow into their power. However, he has missed wildly with the hit tools – so what you end up getting is guys that have neither a hit tool nor much power and are not especially athletic. Let’s not kid ourselves, this year Moniak, Randolph and Haseley have all SUCKED. They have not performed below average – they have all been horrible. In an organization that is trying to be cutting edge and do every thing right (and I think they really are trying to do this), how can this guy keep his job. He’s been terrible and the organization – which should not be harvesting some good first round talent – will be paying the price for his misses for years.

      1. Sorry for the typos – the JA screw ups are really pissing me off – and more so as time goes on.

        1. In retrospect, Marti Wolever, who often had no first round picks or low first round picks, doesn’t looks so bad. It was he who drafted JPC, Hoskins and Nola in consecutive years. Just saying.

      2. Really if the Phillies make the playoffs this yr . Next yr and are contention for the next few yrs. The Phillies fans are going to saying mm, Randolph, so what. The Phillies might have there core already . Herrera , Kingery, Franco , Hoskins , Santana or another hired bat.
        What the young pitchers doing well , both in the Majors and and minors .
        A draft takes 4 to 6 yrs to judge Jo,Jo, Romero , Irvin , Howard , Damon Jones, Stewart, Young , Fanti, Pelliter ,Falter etc will be judged .

    3. If you look real hard….Moniak could be a close comp to Steve Finley, who took a little time after he reached the majors to blossom….and Finley was a college bat so right now the age/appropriate level comp at the minor league level cannot be really made.

      1. Sorry, while it’s true that Finley’s power developed in the majors, he flew through the minors, regularly hitting over .300. His minor league stats have no connection with MM’s stats thus far. I think V1again nailed it – MM doesn’t appear to have a good hit tool. I think with HS hitters, sometimes these scouts confuse a great swing with a great hit tool – they are not the same thing. Not even close.

        1. Catch, I knew have seen mm, maybe VI has. but how in gods name can you pick a kid without a good hit tool. if that is true? If a scout cant see that, he has no business being a scout. not with all the talent they looked at prior to that draft.

          1. Like I said, I think scouts confuse a good swing with a good hit tool. You can tell if a HS hitter has a good swing and maybe good athletic ability. But how can you tell if that kid is going to be able to judge and hit an elite curve or breaking pitch or hit 95 MPH FBs up in the zone? That’s what a hit tool and plate discipline entails – and it seems almost impossible to judge that in a HS hitter unless the kids has played in tons of show cases against elite HS pitching talent – and even then it’s more guesswork than knowledge I would think.

          1. It’s NOT the power, it’s the hit tool. Finley hit well at all levels. MM has not – at least not yet. I don’t even begin to understand the comp from a statistical standpoint.

            1. Like I said…Finley started at age 22 as a college guy…..but if you want to say Moniak is a bust and will not amount to what you expect….you have every right.

            2. It’s hard to call him a bust only 2 years in. But it isn’t hard to look at his results and conclude he simply can’t play.

          2. Look at the K rate and Walk rates. Not in the same universe. Finley’s k rate was like 10%. Moniak’s is currently 27%. Finley’s walk rate wa over 6% in minors. Moniak’s is ~1.5%.

            They are not close at all.

            The scouting reports on Mickey are terrible too.

  3. Matt Klentak (for that matter Charlie Manuel and Pat Gillick) are not just basing their decisions off of Almaraz’s scouting reports. These guys (Klentak/Manuel/Gillick) have been on the road and at games getting first hand looks. I remember Manuel speaking to some members of the media about MM before the draft.

    BTW … there is no doubt Randolph was a worse pick than Moniak. At least Moniak took a 3 million dollar discount. Randolph signed for full slot. The Phillies actually went 300 thousand dollars over on Haseley, but I think it’s fair to say the jury is still out on him.

    1. The jury is out on Haseley – I’m not writing a guy off yet in his first year, when he’s already in high A ball – he has time.

      And while you’re right that maybe MK, Charlie and Gillick were on the road, that means little if their judgment stinks. As I said the other day, Gillick has lots of wonderful skills, but judging amateur players is, in my view, not one of them. Look how badly the Phillies whiffed on first round picks during his tenure – this is where the down trend started for the team as they went a DECADE without producing a single above-average position player from their system, which is incomprehensible. He is responsible for a host of awful first round picks on his watch, including Anthony Hewitt and others. He is objectively bad at this – I don’t want him or Charlie on the road, I want them resting easy in their summer homes.

      1. catch … my comment about Klentak/Manuel/Gillick getting first hand looks was a counterpoint to someone above (may have been v1) who said Klentak is making decisions based on Almaraz’s scouting reports. My point is those three all went out and saw (I believe multiple times) Moniak and Haseley.

  4. I never heard of a first round pick not being seen numerous times by gm and Almaraz, I mean it usually starts with area scouts seeing kids. then regional scouts then crosschecks, gm club president. A lot of people in a organization see a kid who suppose to know talent. unless the phillies do it different.

    1. OK … so maybe the Phillies are typical of every team in MLB. I don’t know.
      The next question is … does Matt Klentak/Charlie Manuel/Pat Gillick have a hand in the kids picked later in the draft ? I’m pretty sure they don’t. The Phillies have a better track record with picks two and beyond. Almaraz runs that part of the draft by himself.

      1. You may be right and some evidence supports what you are saying. Regardless, they need to fix the now glaring and persistent problem and I think that involves not making the decision by committee.

    1. the two lefties at one team being considered for that #1 pick, Puk and Groome, both out now with TJ surgery.

  5. Alec Bohm, in two mid week games (not the best competition [Oral Roberts & S Dakota St]) has gone 2 for 5 with 4 BB’s and 1 HR. He also committed another error.
    On Tuesday night, Nick Madrigal went 3 for 5 (including a double) and a BB vs Oregon.

    1. And, finally the discussion returns to the 2018 Draft. 49 comments, 10 about the upcoming draft, 39 about the past. I see no reason to continue to provide a draft specific forum after this week.

      Apologies to you, Hinkie. You can post your excellent draft information in the open discussion where it will likely be buried among the comments of the chronic complainers who feel the need to say the same things over and over again.

  6. Bohm has to be the guy right now until he either stops hitting or another pitcher comes along.

    1. Bohm grounded out in his three AB’s against Shane McClanahan. He then went berzerk on the USF bullpen (2HR’s and a BB). BTW … McClanahan was pitching with a blister. He threw his FB almost exclusively, and got lit up by Wichita St (3 IP [86 P], 6 R, 6 H, 5 BB, 4 K).

  7. Hinkie watched one of his at bats. Big kid, Thought the announcer said Shane was going to get 5 million or more, and he has been getting hit. I am in love with Liberatore big gamble I know but the rewards is big too. We need a lefthander and this kid, has the stuff. Just don’t know if he will become what I think he would I haven’t seen the kids like you have so I really don’t have the feel you do. So it just a opinion

    1. rocco … I like Liberatore a lot, too. However, I just couldn’t pick him at 1-3. The history of HSP’s drafted that high is miserable.

  8. TY romus. I said it before he reminds me of Cole. and now some one else sees it, I know its a big gamble but he might be worth the risk.

  9. With the utmost respect to Hinkie – in particular – who does a more than yeoman job of reporting all the nuances of the draft – in great detail —— I am beginning to think that the draft is becoming somewhat of a giant crap shoot. Without spending mountains of space with millions of statistics etc., in fact —- why not devote your entire spending allotment to the LA market where you will find the future stars of baseball. For all the talk of this guy no. 1 etc., Acuna of the Braves blows any no 1 away in a moment; what about Albies ? the Blue Jays Vlad junior, etc. etc. Where would Sixto be in the draft ? Other than a Harper, Strasbourg, and that sort of a generational talent, most of them rarely perform at the level of the LA players. An entire first round might yield 10 – 15 MLB players where the LA market yields a multiple of active MLB players every year. I am beginning to think the MLB draft is sort of like the NFL draft – who cares ? Let Sal A. in LA find the players – they are invariably the best players anyway. Somebody change my mind …. or call me a fool….or both. Thanks Hinkie for all you do !!!! not to minimize that in any way.

    1. RU … all valid points. You are correct. Drafting future MLB stars is very difficult. That’s why I’m a bit defensive of Johnny Almaraz. Most posters compare him to the perfect scouting director, the one that drafts multiple future MLB starters every year. He doesn’t exist. If you look around baseball, fans of practically every team could make the same complaints of their scouting director. I’ve already made the argument multiple times that the Phillies first round picks have been collaborative efforts. Almaraz has hit on enough of his second round and beyond picks to rate as one of the better scouting directors in the league IMO.
      Also … remember, for every Vlad Guerrero jr there are 100 Luis Encarnacions. Right now, the top prospects are definitely top heavy in LA players, but it has (and probably will continue to) fluctuate(d). Just three years ago, 8 of the top 10 prospects in MiLB were acquired through the draft.
      For me, the Phillies need to attack both the draft and J2 market aggressively.

      1. Hmmm how about Betts,, Blackmon, Arenado,Freeman, Judge,Haniger,Seager,Machado, Trea Turner, Bryant, Rizzo,Chris Taylor. Etc not everyone has to be picked in the first Rd to be a stud.

        1. Tim….exactly.
          Also almost every team, sans the Os of late, sign a two or more dozen LA kids EVERY year…..how many of them make it to the majors?
          Phillies signed over 60 two J2s ago.

          1. rocco……Cubs’ Bryant was the third pick in the entire draft.
            Judge was also considered a first round pick….compensation pick for the Yankees.
            TreaTurner first round by the Padres in 2014.
            But…..Arenado and Freeman were both 2nd round picks

  10. I was going for the younger major league players that were pick outside the top 10. Yea I missed on Byrant btw so do did the Astros and they won a World Series. So sick and tried of hearing about C , Haseley, Mickey mo.theres so many other players in the Phillies sys.
    I didn’t include Goldie, Lamb , Springer .

    1. To RJ’s point about the draft being a crap shoot and to Hinkie’s point about the perfect selector not existing, Mickey Moniak isn’t the only first rounder who hasn’t panned out yet.

      As I recall, there was lots and lots of discussion about AJ Puk and Groome two years ago. Now both undergoing TJ. They might well be back, but at this point, they aren’t even in the game.

      Final note: Maybe just a good stretch, but Haseley has been picking it up offensively in recent games.

      1. I’ll admit that the constant harping on Randolph, Manual, and Hasley has for quite old, comparing them to Put, Groome, and Pint is different. The later three all got injured. The former three it is a problem of taken evaluation.

  11. I’ll admit that the constant harping on Randolph, Manual, and Hasley has for quite old, comparing them to Put, Groome, and Pint is different. The later three all got injured. The former three it is a problem of taken evaluation.

  12. Moniak was 1.1 though which hurts more. Randolph at 10 at Hasley at 8 aren’t as egregious, especially since in regards to Randolph the Phil’s supposedly liked Happ but the Cubs took him right before he was taken. With Hasley, it would have been interesting if Pavin Smith was still there but the Dbacks took him right before their pick.

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