Phuture Phillies 2018 Reader Top 30 Poll for the Phillies #10 Prospect

2018 Reader Top 30

Mickey Moniak was your selection as the #9 prospect in the Phillies’ organization.

Moniak received 95 of 320 votes (30%).  JoJo Romero finished second (82, 26%), Darick Hall finished third (64, 20%), and Roman Quinn finished fourth (44, 14%).  Fourteen players split the remaining 35 votes.

When the discussion turns to Phillies prospects, there is no more polarizing prospect in the organization than Mickey Moniak.  Many feel the need to point out his failings or extol his virtues.  So, I am going to break with tradition and not list his yearly stats and accomplishments, or lack there of.

Instead.  Let me introduce this.

Many of you would concede that the Phillies sought to parlay the 2016 draft bonus windfall that came with the worst record by signing as many skilled, young players as possible.

I recall that the draft was considered weak because it didn’t include a Harper or Starsburg at the top of the draft board.  I don’t recall if it was considered deep.  I think not.  But I’m not sure.

In retrospect, the Phillies plan seems to have been to overpay to induce players to forego college commitments.  After saving almost $3M on the first overall pick (Mickey Moniak), the Phillies went over slot for picks 2 through 5 (Kevin Gowdy, Cole Stobbe, JoJo Romero, and Cole Irvin) .  They paid full slot for picks 6 and 9 David Martinelli and Blake Quinn), and almost full slot for picks 7 and 8 (Henri Lartigue and Grant Dyer).  They saved a little on 10 when they only paid half slot (Julian Garcia).

The Phillies also made an effort to sign their prep selections.  Their first 3 picks were prep stars.  Picks 11, 12, 13, and 22 ( Josh Stephen, Justin Miller, Andrew Brown, and Kyle Young) were also from the high school ranks.  These were the highest seven high school picks by the Phillies that year and they signed them all.  These four at or over the $100K slot for picks after ten.

So, that is a partial back story here.  I think those of you who judge, might want to consider rating Mickey Moniak as a first round pick rather than expecting him to be the best overall player in the draft.  This won’t change the way you feel about a disappointing season.  But it should alter the measures he’s held against.

He was a very good player in high school.  He performed well in the Gulf Coast League. He’ll likely be a very good player again.

It’s not his fault that the Phillies didn’t pick the “best overall player” in the draft (whoever that might have been) or the guy that you wanted.  I remember our discussions.  Moniak’s name never came up pre-draft.  Guys talked about included that pitcher from Oklahoma (Hansen?) who bombed early in the season.  The pitcher from Florida (Puk).  Stanford (Quantrill).  The prep arms from Kansas (Pint) and New Jersey (Groome).  And hitters from Mercer (Lewis), Tennessee (Senzel) and Louisville (Ray).  The guy I liked was a prep kid from Kansas, Joey Wentz.  The Braves got him in the CBA round.

Now, about the little feud over the way I monitor comments.  I’ve thought about it this over the weekend.  I have decided to not allow a couple of new commenters to change site policy.  I don’t want to see anyone turn Phuture Phillies into one of those sites that allows bullying, rudeness, and vulgar language.  There were dozens of banned accounts when I took over. So, it’s not like this something new that I instituted.  Don’t like it?  Tough. Go troll somewhere else.

Next up is your selection for the #10 prospect in the organization with Simon Muzziotti, Jose Taveras, Andrew Pullin, and Arquimedes Gamboa added to the poll.

 

2018 Readers’ Poll, so far –

  1. Sixto Sanchez
  2. Scott Kingery
  3. J.P. Crawford
  4. Jhailyn Ortiz
  5. Jorge Alfaro
  6. Adam Haseley
  7. Adonis Medina
  8. Franklyn Kilome
  9. Mickey Moniak

 

66 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2018 Reader Top 30 Poll for the Phillies #10 Prospect”

  1. JoJo Romero again with this slot. I picked Moniak as my #18. I see the plus side and wanted to slot him near the end of the top 10 but I also believe a wake up call or a shot across the bow has to included. I didn’t drop him because I was disappointed that a #1 overall pick had trouble with A ball but rather he’s now established a risk that may or may not be significant. The #18 slotting I gave Moniak is more about who I slotted above him. Some are young guys who showed me something last year (Like Morales) and some are guys who have very good potential and their proximity warrants the ranking (like Eshelman).

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  3. Thanks for the well-needed perspective, Jim. I feel good about Mickey Mo adjusting and making progress toward his very high ceiling next season.

    JoJo Romero here. He’s the lefty the big club rotation desperately needs (and, unfortunately, won’t have until at least 2019).

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  4. 1. Crawford
    2. Kingery
    3. Sanchez
    4. Alfaro
    5. Kilome
    6. Haseley
    7. Moniak
    8. Ortiz
    9. Medina
    10. JoJo Romero

    This is the most impressive Phillies system that I can recall. The back 10 is littered with names that would easily fit into most organization’s top 10. Good stuff

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  5. Thank you! I’m an old timer, who hasn’t got a clue about sabermetrics, and I’m too old to learn. The “eye test” has served me well for 60 years as a player, coach, and manager. I realize the importance of analytics in todays game, but many of the posters out there refuse to accept the importance of the eye test. I get shouted down on other sites, and overwhelmed with statistics. Computers can tell you what a player has done, and project what he might do in the future. They can’t tell you how much desire is in a players heart, or how much his play is affected by what’s happening a thousand miles away at home.

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    1. Sabermetrics is as good as you can comprehend the statistics. It’s honestly better to have no knowledge than surface level knowledge. I watched for years while 50% of avid baseball fans relied solely on BABIP normalization as a means of predicting future performance without fully understanding BABIP or batted ball types. This view is still referenced regularly even today. Relying on surface level knowledge alone can often lead one to an unintended conclusion.

      For what its worth, the complication in sabermetrics is often tied to the manner in which an individual concluded to a specific formula. But you remove the mathematics and look at what it is the individual is trying to measure, and there is typically some sound logic behind it (with many exceptions)

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      1. There are several books out there that break it down for beginners, but Keith Law’s “Smart Baseball” does an excellent job at explaining the logic you mentioned. Worth a read.

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  6. Jojo for sure here. Potential for three average or better pitches and good command, plus he’s a lefty.

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  7. By all accounts Mickey is a great kid with a strong work ethic and competitor spirit. I fully expect him to dominate Lakewood this season and move up to Clearwater by mid-Season.

    Go get it kid!

    JoJo for me here. I think people are sleeping on JoJo because he was drafted out of Junior College and not high school. But he was 19 when drafted. He dominated last year as a 20yo in high A. He throws low 90s from the left side with exceptional command. The peripheral that jumps out is the 50%+ ground ball rate at all levels. Add in a 23% k rate and low walk rate and that is the profile of a really good pitching prospect. I had him above Kilome. This kid is really good. Definitely top 10 prospect.

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    1. Agree…JoJo with my vote hear.
      Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen on JoJo this past summer:
      Hi Eric! Have you seen JoJo Romero? The performance seems really good and I’m wondering what kind of upside he has.

      Eric A Longenhagen: Low-90s, very athletic, avg slider will flash better, above average changeup
      His pre-2017 season gradings:
      Fastball Slider Changeup Command
      50/50 45/50 50/55 40/55

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      1. I have Jo Jo as 8th on my Top 30, one place ahead of Kilome. Jo Jo has performed, as v1 says above.

        However, I still have to vote for Roman Quinn as he was my number 6.

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    2. I am going to put some data behind my point. I am going to do this with a tactic that I typically hate, comparing JoJo’s high A stats to MLB stats, but I don’t know a different way to get these stats for minor league pitchers.

      Here is JoJo’s key High A peripheral stats as a 20yo:
      – GB%: 50.4%
      – K/9: 8.43
      – BB/9: 2.58
      – HR/9: 0.34

      Here is a complete list of MLB pitchers with a GB% > 50%, a K/9 > 8.4 and a BB/9 < 2.6:
      – Sonny Gray
      – Carlos Martinez
      – Luis Severino
      – Patrick Corbin
      – Jimmy Nelson
      – Aaron Nola

      A pretty impressive group. The lowest HR/9 of that group is Jimmy Nelson, who had 0.82 per 9 innings. which is 2.4x higher than JoJo's.

      Now I fully recognize that doing it against MLB hitters is dramatically better than against High A hitters. Not even in the same league. My point is the statistical profile is extremely rare. A high GB pitcher, with low walks and high strikeouts is a rare pitcher to find.

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      1. Sorry, I messed that up. The above list excludes the walk rate. It is just pitchers with a 50%+ GB rate and a 8.4 K/9.

        If you include the filter of less than 2.6 BB/9 then the list is:
        – Luis Severino – 5.7 WAR
        – Jimmy Nelson – 4.9 WAR
        – Aaron Nola – 4.3 WAR

        Three pitchers in all of MLB last year had a similar peripheral comp.

        Point is, it is a damn good profile.

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  9. Thank you Jim for your response to angry comments. This site is a friendly one with some extraordinary people who promote a spirit of good will. It is a pleasure to read the remarks of others whose passion is the Phillies farm, not their anger. Good call. I also liked the way you reminded us of Moniak’s draft class. It is always better to live into our better sides and concentrate on reality and not what our anger instructs us to say and do. Thanks for maintaining the site on the right track.

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  11. I’m the last one on the Roman Quinn train, I guess. I’ll restate: given his carrying tool (speed) proven ability (when on the field) and proximity to meaningful MLB team contribution, he’s the best choice at this point.

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    1. I am on the Quinn train big time. If he can be healthy, he is #4 on this list for me. But that is too big an “if” given his history to be ranked in the top 10 IMO

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      1. Agreed and I said similarly a couple slots ago. Just can’t have him top 10 anymore. I undoubtedly, and I’m sure everyone would agree, want him to prove me wrong though.

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    2. Phan,

      As you can see by the response to your post, a number of us are still with Quinn. He’s my Number 6 as mentioned above, but I also agree with v1 that it’s difficult rating him high given his injuries.

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    3. I’ve been a big fan of Quinn for many years but his long injury history has finally led me to move him down in the rankings below other high-ceiling players at lower levels.

      If healthy, Quinn would be a top-5 prospect in the system. Based on his injuries, he’s now in the mid-teens…

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    4. It will be interesting to see what happens in Clearwater if Quinn looks healthy and up to snuff. Do the Phils carry him as a 5th OF or let him grind out another year in Allentown? I’m rooting for him, I think he can be a game-changer

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  12. BigPhan – I’m with you on the Quinn vote. Injuries shouldn’t detract from his prospect status.

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    1. Prospects are synonymous with projections and projections are linked to risks. You cannot value prospects without taking risk into consideration.

      IMO, prospect value is a balance of potential and risk. Without the risk component – Alfaro, Quinn and Cozens will be the Top 3. What drives the value of these prospects down are the big risk factor (Quinn – health, Alfaro – hit/defense, Cozens – hit).

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  13. BigPhan, I think that SWFL is aboard that train, and I know that I am. Maybe our new Mgr, and his nutrition and stretching programs, will get Quinn healthy. If so, he is a certain top talent, so I still voted for him.

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  14. I have the same Top 9 in my ranking with the exception of Alfaro who is my #11 and delos Santos who is my #8.

    delos Santos is the next highest ranked prospect for me, but he will be a wasted vote so i will vote for the next one who I ranked as #10 — JoJo Romero.

    In the minor, I more focused on the tools rather than the statistical results because time and time again, it proves to us that minor league success or failure doesn’t necessary translate the same in the majors. In athletics, your are only limited to your own abilities, mental ability and determination.

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  15. I’m surprised with the Darick Hall support this early (Hall is my # 27) especially with JoJo, Randolph, Morales, Eshelman still in the board.

    Arano surprised me in his brief stint with the Phils (he’s my #24). I thought Arano will be getting more support in the ranking.

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    1. Hall is my #43. I know he has a group of supporters here and that he’ll go somewhere in the teens, but I think the word might be out amongst his family and friends too. He shouldn’t be getting top 10 votes.

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    2. I like Arano but relievers don’t get the love that other top prospects do. With few exceptions, they are relievers because they don’t cut it as starters. Therefore I get the ranking rationale. It’ll be interesting to see where Dominguez slots now that he’s been shifted to the bullpen.

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      1. Dominguez is a guy I really liked, as a starter. I have him in the 20s as a reliever, though one with back of the ‘pen upside. Maybe they hope to fast track him.

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    1. If you asked me to make a list of 5 or 6 minor leaguers who realistically could take huge steps forward this year, Randolph would probably be on that list as would Brito, Medina, Moniak, Howard and Haseley. In the majors/upper minors, I would include Eflin, Velasquez and Pivetta. Statistics aside, I think Pivetta is not that far from being a dominant power pitcher – there’s a lot of ability there.

      By the way, guys like Sanchez, Kingery and Crawford are not on this list because I think they already have taken large steps forward.

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      1. catch – I like that list. If those guys improve, our farm gets even deeper AND past trades look even better.

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      2. Catch,

        Agree. I’m looking for Mickey Mo to break through and perhaps C Randolph.

        On the Big Club, I like Pivetta. He appears to have VV potential with fewer of the risks.

        An under-the-radar-screen guy is Edgar Cabral. Already a strong defensive catcher, he appears to be coming around offensively. He’s my 31 and could move up.

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          1. Murray, expecting an MM break through.

            He’s got talent and a good attitude, now he’s got some hard-earned experience and a year of physical maturity.

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      3. You can also add Jhailyn Ortiz to the list. We could easily end the year with him and Sixto being ranked 1 and 2. From what I’ve seen the upside is stratospheric.

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        1. Catch, if the top 5 by this time next year are:
          1 Sanchez
          2 Ortiz
          3T Haseley
          3T Moniak
          5 Romero or Medina or Kilome,
          Then we’ll have had a GREAT 2018 on the farm.

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      4. Always fun topic – Just looking at guys outside of top 10 guys – I would have Howard, Morales, Brito, Gomez, and Gamboa. Have we all given up on Stobbe?

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        1. Stobbe needs to show a lot more this year. I haven’t given up, but if his 2018 looks like his 2017 then it might be time.

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  17. De Los Santos is my #10, followed by JoJo, Quinn, Randolph, and Esh leafing another wave of pitchers.

    It will be interesting, to me at least, where the remaining position players like Brito, Gamboa and others fall.

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  18. Jim, as a daily reader but infrequent participant I would like to add my thanks to you for keeping this site so friendly and congenial. Most who post here are informed and interested – while opinions may vary widely there should be no place for personal attacks. Thanks for all your hard work!

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  19. This is a pretty good and accurate list so far. The only player that I would have ranked significantly differently is Alfaro, but I get why folks ranked him so high – it’s just an honest difference of opinion on his likely trajectory.

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    1. I am sold on the idea of his potential. I think we will have a very good idea about him come June. Wondering who will win the backup; Rupp or Knapp. But that is a discussion for another day.

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  20. Would anyone like to make the case for De Los Santos? Have to admit I’ve only done a little research but the reports seem mixed.

    Interesting debate here’s between Quinn and JoJo. Apples and oranges, but I picked Romero.

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    1. FYI….a few scouting reports on De Los Santos:
      1. Prospects1500…Mid Season:
      At 21 Enyel is younger than most of his peers in Double-A.
      His stats aren’t blowing away anyone just yet, but his stuff plays.
      It plays in Double-A and it’s expected to play in the bigs with expected development.
      Projected to be a back of the rotation starter.
      2. MadFriars…John Coniff:…2017
      What makes De Los Santos special is his ability to throw, and maintain a fastball that sits in the mid-90s. His changeup has improved from last year, this season, according to Padres Director of Player Development San Geaney, will be to refine his curve ball. “He needs to improve upon his command, said his manager Phillp Wellman. “He has velocity, but velocity is not that big a deal if you throw it right over the middle of the plate. He got hurt a few times the other day and I think he will eventually come around.” “When you have a great arm like that sometimes they try to turn the dial up, when they should be turning the dial down. Right now, he’s only 21 and when he gets in trouble is when he tries to up the velocity too much because it straightens out, and that is when he gets whacked.” “He’ll learn in due time, he’s just young and inexperienced at this level. It’s a big part of being down here to learn and get better.” “What pitches do you throw? Enyel De Los Santos: I have a fastball, a changeup and curve ball. The fastball is a four-seam and I throw a two-seamer sometimes”

      3. 2080 Baseball…August 2017…..Originally signed as an international free agent for just $15,000 out of the DR ‘14 by the Mariners, De Los Santos boasts a plus fastball that runs as high as 97 mph with late life, De Los Santos also works an average curveball and changeup, both of which have shown signs of improvement since the start of the season. With the downhill plane created by his 6’3” frame, De Los Santos generates plenty of swings and misses, and he’s increased his SO/9 from 6.5 in 2016 to 8.3 this season with the Missions. Over his last two appearances, De Los Santos has allowed one earned run over 15 innings, walking three and striking out 15. With the encouraging improvement of his arsenal from last season to this, De Los Santos should see time at the Triple-A level to begin 2018, if not a quick cup of coffee there before the end of this year.

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      1. Thanks, good info. He’s definitely in the mix right around here. He’s another good arm for the system that has a chance to make a major league rotation. They won’t all make it, it will be a good competition to see who rises to the top.

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        1. Agree….not sure I have ever seen at any one time in the Phillies farm system, so many Latin arms with such high-end potential.

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      2. This was actually a sneaky good trade by MK and his team. I’d predict that Enyel in 2-3 years becomes a very productive starter and would not be surprised at all to see him become something akin to Rick Porcello

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    2. IF Quinn were healthy, he’d be top 5. The problem is his health has been do sketchy. A player has to be available to be valuable. I love Quinn’s talent and I think he’ll make the 25, IF healthy. But will he be healthy?

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      1. Murray,

        it’s been suggested before that Quinn’s future might be as a reserve because he can’t hold up physically as a regular. Obviously, some of his injuries come from specific incidents, not bing worn down, but the idea of playing him part-time has some appeal. Or, as Matt13 says, maybe Kapler’s health and conditioning program will solve Quinn’s injury syndrome.

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        1. Frank:
          Many of Roman Quinn’s injuries were soft tissue/ligament tearing.
          …Achilles heal, quads, calf, and obliques.
          And each kept him on the shelf for longer than expected, thus a recovery issue exists also.
          I hope Gabe Kapler has a solution….maybe coconut oil…that is cooking with it.;)

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  21. Thanks Jim for doing your thing.
    I laugh that we argue over the placement within the top 10 or 15 of the exact same names. Whether Jo Jo or MM is 8,9 or 10 doesn’t really matter in the big picture. We all agree that they’re a top prospect and we have many more. There really is a long list of players who might become major league starters or starting pitchers (or valuable relievers) one day. I went with Jo Jo, he should start the year in AA and hopefully get called up to LHV if he does well.

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    1. “Whether Jo Jo or MM is 8,9 or 10 doesn’t really matter in the big picture. We all agree that they’re a top prospect and we have many more.”
      …agree…… Hoskins was voted at 34 in 2015.

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  22. Poll looks good fellas you’re doing a great job and Jimmy presents a well augmented argument for MM

    I never thought of it in that way and might have bought into it if Gowdy hadn’t turned out to be damaged goods 🙂

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  23. For entertainment purposes only and in case you were wondering MLB has Tocci #30 in the Rangers system….

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    1. I am not sure that is their latest work up…..I think they usually do their complete new work up later this month.
      For example, in the past, after the Rule 4 and trade deadline deals and Rule 5 draft …they seem to s more or less cut and paste the prospect into a geusstimate slot on the gaining team’s 30 list.
      Perhaps they have changed….not sure..

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  24. I voted for Kilome, since he was on the ballot. Thought it would be cool to have the same guy at #8 AND #10.

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