The hot stove season continues. The GMs meeting begins tomorrow in Orlando, FL.
I’ve been watching a lot of MLB Hot Stove this week. They scroll each team’s KEY FA across the bottom of the screen during the show along with some other baseball information. The Phillies KEY FA are RHP Clay Buchholz, 3B Andres Blanco, LF Daniel Nava, and OF Hyun Soo Kim. Every time I see this I can’t help but smile. I think it’s the use of the word KEY.
Organizational News and Changes
The Phillies announced that Dusty Wathan, Rick Kranitz and John Mallee would be part of manager Gabe Kapler’s staff. Wathan will be the third base coach, Mallee will be the hitting coach, and current bullpen coach Kranitz’ role has not been announced.
The Gold Gloves were announced. Freddy Galvis got screwed.
Here are this year’s free agents who were extended a qualifying offer from their teams:
- Jake Arrieta, SP, Cubs
- Lorenzo Cain, OF, Royals
- Alex Cobb, SP, Rays
- Wade Davis, RP, Cubs
- Greg Holland, RP, Rockies
- Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals
- Lance Lynn, SP, Cardinals
- Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals
- Carlos Santana, 1B, Indians
New qualifying offer rules are in place.
- A player who has been issued a qualifying offer can never be offered another one.
- A player who receives a QO will have ten days to decide (up from seven days).
- Compensation for a team that loses a free agent who had been offered a QO –
- A former team that was not a revenue sharing recipient or whose free agent signed for less than $50M guaranteed will receive a compensatory pick after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place just prior to the draft’s third round.
- A former team that was a revenue sharing recipient and whose free agent signed a deal for at least $50MM guaranteed will receive a compensatory pick after the first round. According to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (hat tip to MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince), 16 teams are revenue-sharing recipients and could qualify for the higher pick — the Astros, Athletics, Braves, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals and Twins. (It’s worth noting that the new CBA specifies that Oakland will be gradually phased out as a revenue-sharing recipient over the next two seasons.)
- A former team that paid the luxury tax will receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round.
- Penalties for a team that signs a FA who declined a QO –
- If a team received revenue sharing and didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold, it has to surrender its third-highest pick in the next draft. Signing a second QO FA will cost the team its fourth-highest pick, and a third will cost the fifth-highest pick.
- If a team contributes to revenue sharing and didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold, it will have to surrender its second-highest draft pick and $500K of international bonus pool money in the next int’l signing period (which starts on July 2). Signing a second QO FA will cost the team its third-highest pick, and so on. No additional international pool money would be involved.
- If a team paid luxury tax, it has to surrender its second-highest and fifth-highest draft picks and $1M of international bonus pool money in the next int’l signing period (which starts on July 2). Signing a second QO FA will cost the third and sixth round picks, and so on.
If the Phillies were to sign one of the free agents who was offered a QO, they would fall under 4.2 above and would have to surrender their 2nd highest draft pick AND $500K of their international pool money.
So, to put it in perspective, if there’s a guy on the list above you would like to sign, would you be willing to miss out on the opportunity to sign a Spencer Howard (2017), or a Kevin Gowdy (2016), or a Scott Kingery (2015) AND give back a half million dollars of international money in order to acquire that guy?
The Phillies have 16 minor league players eligible for free agency –
- RHP: Michael Mariot (AAA), Colton Murray (AA), Miguel Nunez (AA), Jesen Therrien (AAA), LHP: Cesar Ramos (AAA), RHP/LHP: Pat Venditte (AAA)
- C: Wilson Garcia (Hi A), Chace Numata (AA), Nick Rickles (AAA)
- 1B: Jake Fox (AA), Brock Stassi (AAA)
- 2B: Angelo Mora (AAA)
- 3B: Harold Martinez (AA)
- SS: Hector Gomez (AAA)
- OF: Christian Marrero (AAA), Herlis Rodriguez (AAA)
Chace Numata signed a minor league deal with the Yankees.
Winter ball stats are available here, but include only the Arizona Fall League, and the Dominican, Mexican, and Venezuelan winter leagues. The Puerto Rican Winter League has been cancelled. Foreign players reported to the Colombian Winter League on October 27th and they begin League play on November 3rd.
- Toros – Felix Paulino, Casey Brown, Jorge Alfaro, Grenny Cumana, Arquimedes Gamboa, Luke Williams
- Calamnes – Chace Numata (signed with the NYY), Kyle Martin, Derek Campbell
The Nicaraguan Winter League began on Tuesday, October 24th. I see no Phillies’ farm hands on their published rosters. The web site for the Panamian Winter League is a cluster____.
In the AFL, the Glendale Desert Dogs are 3 GB with 4 to play. Edgar Cabral is hitting .333. Cornelius Randoph is hitting .203 and Zach Green is hitting .184. J.D. Hammer hasn’t allowed a run in 11 appearances and has 2 saves. Garrett Cleavinger and Trevor Bettencourt are still carrying big ERAs. Elniery Garcia has been shut down and Aaron Brown took his place pitching a scoreless inning in his first appearance.
In the DWL, Cameron Perkins is still hitting .258, Angelo Mora is hitting .273. Eliezer Alvarez is seeing limited action, 17 AB in 7 games. Zac Curtis is 4-2, 4.76 in 14 appearances. Franklyn Kilome’s ERA rose to 5.54 and Tom Windle’s jumped to 7.20.
Mitch Walding (.228) has 3 HR in the MWL, Brock Stassi (.241) has two. In the VWL, Daniel Brito is still hitting .273 and I heard he is back stateside at the Complex.
The Phillies’ spring training was released this week. Here is the list. Dates in bold are new to the list. Note that there are still 3 open dates. So there is still some chance for additional games.
- Thursday, February 22 v. University of Tampa at Spectrum Field
- Friday, February 23rd at Toronto in Dunedin
- Saturday, February 24th v. Baltimore at Spectrum Field
- Sunday, February 25th v. New York at Spectrum Field
- Monday, February 26th at New York in Tampa (night)
- Tuesday, February 27th v.Detroit at Spectrum Field
- Wednesday, February 28th at Toronto in Dunedin
- Thursday, March 1st v. New York at Spectrum Field
- Friday, March 2nd at Tampa in Port Charlotte
- Saturday, March 3rd v. Baltimore at Spectrum Field (split squad)
- Saturday, March 3rd at Pittsburgh in Bradenton (split squad)
- Sunday, March 4th v. Toronto at Spectrum Field
- Monday, March 5th v. Minnesota at Spectrum Field
- Tuesday, March 6th TBA or Bye
- Wednesday, March 7th at New York in Tampa
- Thursday, March 8th at New York in Tampa
- Friday, March 9th v. Pittsburgh at Spectrum Field
- Saturday, March 10th v. Tampa at Spectrum Field
- Sunday, March 11th at Baltimore in Sarasota(night)
- Monday, March 12th at Atlanta in Orlando (night)
- Tuesday, March 13th v. Tampa at Spectrum Field
- Wednesday, March 14th at Atlanta in Orlando
- Thursday, March 15th TBA or Bye
- Friday March 16th at Detroit in Lakeland (split squad)
- Friday March 16th v. Toronto at Spectrum Field (split squad)
- Saturday, March 17th v. Atlanta at Spectrum Field
- Sunday, March 18th at Minnesota in Fort Myers
- Monday, March 19th TBA or Bye
- Tuesday, March 20th v. Toronto at Spectrum Field
- Wednesday, March 21st at Toronto in Dunedin
- Thursday, March 22nd v. Detroit at Spectrum Field
- Friday, March 23rd at Pittsburgh in Bradenton
- Saturday, March 24th at Detroit in Lakeland
- Sunday, March 25th v.Baltimore at Spectrum Field
- Monday, March 26th at Pittsburgh in Bradenton
- Tuesday, March 27th v. Pittsburgh at Spectrum Field
The Otani Sweepstakes
I am neither for or against the Phillies aggressively going after Otani. But I saw some of his numbers in a story on MLB’s Hot Stove earlier this week, and realized I didn’t know much about him. So I decided to do some research. Here’s what I’ve heard and/or found out –
- Otani is on record as saying that he wants to play where he can pitch and hit. He has softened his stance in a statement this week, and knows that may not be possible.
- He selected CAA to represent his baseball interests as well as advising him about marketing and other earning opportunities.
- CAA is headquartered in Los Angeles, CA
- Otani appeared in just 65 games this past season.
- Otani rolled his right ankle while running the bases in the 2016 Japan Series.
- Otani aggravated the injury while in the 2016 November internationals.
- At that time, a bone spur was detected and Otani declined surgery in order to be ready to play in the 2017 World Baseball Classic.
- Due to the injury, Otani was unable to pitch over the offseason.
- With his fitness in doubt in February, Otani was dropped from the WBC roster.
- Otani began the 2017 playing regularly with the following restrictions – he was prohibited from running flat out or landing on a base with his right ankle.
- Otani injured a muscle in his left thigh while trying to beat out an infield hit on April 8th and missed 3 months.
- Otani had successful surgery on his ankle in October 2017.
- Otani should be ready to pitch and hit without restrictions in 3 months.
- Otani’s 2017 stats are greatly affected by his injuries, but during his career he has played in 403 games.
- Otani has pitched in 85 games, 82 starts during his career.
- Otani has played the outfield (LF, RF) in 62 games.
- Otani has entered games as a pinch hitter or DH in 256 games.
- Otani has not played the field regularly since 2013 (54 of 77 games ).
- Otani played 8 of 87 games in the outfield in 2014.
- Otani hasn’t played the outfield in 2015, 2016, or 2017.
- Otani has played over 90 games only once in his career, 104 in 2016 when he also hit 22 HR and had 67 RBI.
- Otani hit well over .300 the last two seasons and has a career .286/.358/.500/.859
- Otani’s career numbers were slightly affected by the 3.20 ERA and 6.8 BB/9 during his injury plagued 2017 season, but are a respectable 2.52 ERA, 13 CG, 7 SHO, 1.076 WHIP, 6.4 H/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, and 10.3 K/9.
It’s good for the Phillies that Otani may be relaxing his requirement to pitch and hit.
His marketing opportunities could be west coast centric with CAA’s HQ in LA. Since he’s going to have to sign for less than his supposed value, this may work against the Phillies, although CAA does have offices in New York, Nashville, and Chicago as well as a few other cities.
I think the moves suggested to entice Otani are clever, but I don’t know if they would be enough. However, I read a quote recently that he wanted to be “the guy” on his team and wouldn’t rule out a rebuilding team. A team like the Phillies at the end of their rebuild might have an advantage over a team entering a rebuild.
I compared Otani to Ichiro. In their age 21 seasons, Ichiro had a similar (but better) season and has a career .353/.421/.522/.943 with 118 HR, 629 RBI, 199 SB 33 CS, 384 BB, 333 K in 951 G, 4098 PA, 3619 AB. I never realized that Ichiro had power when he was younger. Ichiro’s numbers are a little better over a longer career and he was a better base stealer.
- November 13-16 – GM meetings in Orlando.
November 13, 2017 – Rookies of the Year announced (MLB Network, 6 p.m. ET)
November 14, 2017 – Managers of the Year announced (MLB Network, 6 p.m. ET)
November 15, 2017 – Cy Young Awards announced (MLB Network, 6 p.m. ET)
- November 16, 2017, 5:00 PM – Deadline for players to accept/reject qualifying offers. Those who decline will become free agents.
- November 16, 2017 – Most Valuable Players announced (MLB Network, 6 p.m. ET)
November 17, 2017 – Esurance MLB Awards (MLB Network)
- November 20th – Deadline for roster expansion to 40 players prior to the Rule 5 draft.
- December 1, 8:00 PM EST – Deadline for teams to tender contracts to unsigned players on their 40-man rosters, including arbitration-eligible players. Non-tendered players become free agents. Tendered players who are arbitration eligible who do not accept the tender proceed to the arbitration process in February.
- December 10-14 – Winter Meetings at the Walt Disney World Swan and Dolphin Resort in Orlando, Florida.
- December 14, 9:00 AM EST – Rule 5 draft.
- January 9, 2018 – Salary arbitration filing deadline
- January 12, 2018 – Salary arbitration figures exchanged
- January 29 – February 16, 2018 – Salary arbitration hearings, Phoenix, Arizona
- February 13, 2018 – earliest date for pitchers/catchers to report to Spring Training
- February 18, 2018 – earliest date for all other players to report for full squad workouts
- February 22, 2018 – Tentative date for the start of Grapefruit League games
- March 29, 2018 – Opening Day for the 2018 season
- March 29, 2018 – Phillies opening game in Atlanta
- April 5, 2018 – Phillies home opener v. Miami
April 15, 2018 – Jackie Robinson Day
April 17-18, 2018 – Twins v. Indians at Hiram Bithorn Stadium in San Juan, PR
May 13, 2018 – Mother’s Day events, all host ballparks
- June 4-6, 2018 – 2018 MLB Draft
June 17, 2018 – Father’s Day events, all host ballparks
July 13-17, 2018 – All-Star Week
- July 17, 2018 – 89th All Star Game, at Nationals Park
- August 19, 2018 – Phillies v. Mets in the Little League Classic in Williamsport.
- December 10-13, 2018 – Winter Meetings in Las Vegas, Nevada
Last Week’s Transactions: (the 40-man roster stands at 38 players)
- 11/6 – RHP Jesen Therrien elected free agency
- 11/6 – CF Pedro Florimon elected free agency
- 11/6 – Phillies activated RHP Vince Velasquez from the 60-day disabled list
- 11/6 – Phillies activated RHP Jerad Eickhoff from the 60-day disabled list
- 11/6 – Phillies activated RHP Zach Eflin from the 60-day disabled list
- 11/6 – Phillies sent RHP Jesen Therrien outright to Lehigh Valley IronPigs
- 11/6 – Phillies sent CF Pedro Florimon outright to Lehigh Valley IronPigs
- 11/2 – RF Hyun Soo Kim elected free agency
- 11/2 – LF Daniel Nava elected free agency
- 11/2 – 3B Andres Blanco elected free agency
- 11/2 – RHP Clay Buchholz elected free agency
- 11/2 – Phillies activated RHP Jesen Therrien from the 60-day disabled list
- 11/2 – Phillies activated CF Pedro Florimon from the 60-day disabled list
- 10/30-11/6 – Logan Moore re-signed with the Phillies
- 9/30-10/13 – Ranfi Casimiro re-signed with the Phillies
- 10/13 – Pedro Beato elected free agency
- 10/5 – Kevin Segrist elected free agency
- 10/5 – Ty Kelly elected free agency
- 9/16-29 – Mitch Walding re-signed with the Phillies
- The organization’s rosters are up to date.
- The organization’s injury list retains the injuries at the end of the 2017 season. All are expected to be okay by the start of spring training except Jesen Therrien. He is expected to miss the entire 2018 season.
- The organization’s Rule 5 eligibility list is as accurate as I can make.
Here’s the open discussion thread for Phillies’ talk and other topics.