Open Discussion: Week of September 24th

Weekly Discussion

This week the Phillies posted a 4-3 record.  They came within a Pinto of sweeping a four-game series from the Los Angeles Dodgers.  They had a 4-3 lead in the fourth game when Mark Leiter turned the game over to the bullpen.  Leiter had held the Dodgers to just one earned run in his six innings.  The Phillies then dropped two out of three to the Atlanta Braves.  They have a 62-94 record and a .397 PCT.  They are still not the worst team in baseball.

The Phillies have six games remaining.  They return to CBP to close out the season with two, three-game series against the Nationals and Mets.

The Phillies have been officially eliminated from both the division and wild card races. They are 4.5 games behind the fourth place Mets, and could still overtake them and avoid finishing in the East Division cellar.   It’s possible but not likely.  That possibility could make the final series interesting.

The Phillies young line up has played very competitively and gives us hope for next season. They are still in the mix for the 1:1 pick in the 2018 draft although the Giants still hold a slim lead.

Now, one last look at the race for last place –

  • the Giants are 61-95 (.391) and are the worst team in the majors,
  • the Phillies are 1.0 game back (but hold the tie breaker if they end up with the same record and winning percentage),
  • the Tigers (62-94, .397) have lost 7 games in a row and have closed to within 1.0 game of the Giants (tied with the Phillies),
  • the White Sox (63-92, .406) are 2.5 games back (1.5 behind the Phillies),
  • with 6 games left, the Mets, Padres, and A’s have eliminated themselves; the Reds still have an outside chance (66-90, .423). 

Organizational News and Changes

First, the Philadelphia Phillies and the Williamsport Crosscutters have announced that they have extended their Player Development Contract (PDC) for two years covering the 2019 and 2020 seasons.  Story here.

And in bigger news, the Phillies will be making a few changes to their Baseball Operations and Scouting Departments according to a report by Todd Zoleck.  Pro scout Ed Wade, the former Phillies GM, is not returning.  Neither is another pro scout, Del Unser, a former Phillies player and member of the 1980 championship team.  Benny Looper, a Seinor Advisor of International Operations is also leaving, as well as amateur scouts David Seifert and Paul Murphy.  Unser and Looper have announced their retirements.

Top 30 Poll

Please continue submitting your top 30 prospect rankings to prospectpoll@yahoo.com.

The “Best of Polls” will continue until their completion.

Key Dates (some dates become set with the conclusion of the World Series):

  • The day after the last game of the World Series, 9:00 AM – “Following the completion of the term of his Uniform Player’s Contract, any Player with 6 or more years of Major League service who has not executed a contract for the next succeeding season shall become a free agent.”  Organizations began an exclusive five-day negotiation window (referred to as “the quiet period” in the CBA) with their own free agents.  During “the quiet period” any Club representative and any free agent or his representative may talk with each other and discuss the merits of the free agent contracting, when eligible; provided that the Club and the free agent shall not negotiate terms or contract with each other. The following subjects are among those which may properly be discussed between any Club and such Player:
  • (i) the Player’s interest in playing for the Club, and the Club’s interest in having the Player play for it;
  • (ii) the Club’s plans about how it intends to utilize the Player’s services (as a starting pitcher or reliever, as a designated hitter or not, platooning, etc.);
  • (iii) the advantages and disadvantages of playing for the Club including the nature of the organization, the climate of the city, availability of suitable housing, etc.;
  • (iv) length of contract;
  • (v) guarantee provisions; and
  • (vi) no-trade or limited no-trade provisions.
  • Notwithstanding the foregoing, the free agent and his former Club may engage in negotiations and enter into a contract during “the quiet period”.
  • The fifth day after the last game of the World Series,  5:00 PM – Deadline for organizations to submit qualifying offers to their free agents. Last year’s QO was $17.2M.
  • This is also the deadline for organizations to exercise any club/mutual options.
  • November TBA – GM meetings.
  • The fifth day after the last game of the World Series – Free agents become eligible to sign with any team.
  • Tenth day after the end of “the quiet period”, 5:00 PM – Deadline for players to accept/reject qualifying offers.  Those who decline will become free agents.
  • 11/20 – Deadline for roster expansion to 40 players prior to the Rule 5 draft.
  • 12/2, 8:00 PM EST – Deadline for teams to tender contracts to unsigned players on their 40-man rosters, including arbitration-eligible players.  Non-tendered players become free agents.  Tendered players who are arbitration eligible who do not accept the tender proceed to the arbitration process in February.
  • 12/10-14 – Winter Meetings at the Walt Disney World Swan and Dolphin Resort in Orlando, Florida.
  • 12/14 – Rule 5 draft.
  • January 9, 2018 – Salary arbitration filing deadline
  • January 12, 2018 – Salary arbitration figures exchanged
  • January 29 – February 16, 2018 – Salary arbitration hearings, Phoenix, Arizona
  • February 14, 2018 – earliest date for pitchers/catchers to report to Spring Training
  • February 19, 2018 – earliest date for all other players to report for full squad workouts
  • February 26, 2018 – Tentative dtae for the start of Grapefruit League games
  • March 29, 2018 – Opening Day for the 2018 season
  • December 10-13, 2018 – Winter Meetings in Las Vegas, Nevada

Last Week’s Transactions: 

Here’s the open discussion thread for Phillies’ talk and other topics.

 

222 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of September 24th”

  2. Nice job Jim mini scout shake up. Now rumors from the internet the Phillies might be interested In Jason Werth , Matt Garza , maybe Yelich and Stanton. I don’t believe any are true at this point . Who replaces Larry Anderson on Radio? Brad Lidge,Doug Glanville,Ricky Bottalico, Raul Ibanez, Roy Halladay.
    Also the many, many Herrera trades you here about only on this board . That he’s bring a ToR pitcher like Kershaw, Kluber, Scherzer, Strasburg, Sale, yep any of these just for Herrera .

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    2. Highly unlikely that your Doobie will get us a TOR arm all by himself, Tim. Even Hoskins won’t. Nor anybody in the organization. (And if you’re being sarcastic, it’s hard to tell without punctuation.) Time to spend money on a second tier FA like Cobb and get creative with a trade for a promising young arm. Dodgers and Marlins seem like possible partners. Maybe O’s and Angels on other fronts.

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    3. Glanville does a good job. Would love Doc or Lidge too. Praying it’s not angry man machismo Ricky Bo.

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  3. Correct…numero uno in the Rule 5…….but not sure you want it……look at all the past number one Rule 5 draft picks..only one in the last 20/25 years with some semblance of sustained success looks like Tim Lahey the pitcher.

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  4. i read that the personnel leaving (as Jim enumerated above) do not see eye-to-eye with the current regime. on specifics of it, we can only speculate. the open discussion thread last week briefly discussed about Johnny A. Will these personnel movements affect Johnny A.’s approach in the next Rule IV draft (i.e. preference on arms in the early rounds and some lottery picks in Rd 6-10, etc)? IMO, Johnny A., just make decisions based on the recommendations of these amateur scouts. Paul Murphy covers the Mid-Atlantic (and follows Haseley in college) while Dave Seifert covers Midwest area and responsible for scouting and signing Justin Parr, Cody Asche and Darin Ruf.

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    1. Please link to where you read that they didn’t see eye to eye. I haven’t read this and was unable to find it searching.

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      1. Corey, i make most of my readings thru my phone during my down time. I will try to see if i can retrieve it.

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  5. Honest question- will Leiter have a better career than pivetta, Eflin, Thompson and lively? I would not be surprised at all.

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    2. i agree with Hinkie. Jake is 3 years younger and physically bigger than Leiter – so Jake can turn his career around and be better than Leiter. Jake’s SL is showing some bite again, but i don’t see any spike in FB anymore. maybe a move to the pen and work of FB-SL (with occasional splitter) like Adam Morgan and we can see some increase in the FB velocity.

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        1. i think Hinkie said that Leiter will have a better career than Jake but not Pivetta, Eflin and Lively – which I agreed. although I noted that Jake’s age and physicality may give him the opportunity to catch up and be better than Leiter.

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      2. The future success of Thompson, Lively and Leiter (and Brandon Leibrandt) depends directly on their ability to develop an arsenal of pitches to keep batters off-stride. Their current stuff doesn’t miss enough bats and relies on precision they seem unlikely to sustain on a regular basis. I think Leiter is pretty far along on this, already. Without the deception that a wide ranging arsenal provides, I don’t see any of these guys making it.

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        1. Lively and Leiter are the closest to being a finished product amongst the 4 SPs you mentioned – both of whom already developed enough arsenal (at least a 4-pitch mix) that helped them go thru the minors level and into the majors. Also, Lively has that deception in his delivery that’s why generated a decent whiff rate in the minors making him ahead of Leiter “as of now”. Leiter follow a Worley-like career while Lively will probably be a serviceable #5 starter.

          Jake can re-invent himself in the bullpen like Morgan did so he can focus on his “used to be” plus SL and add 2-3 mph in that heater.

          I don’t know what to think of Leibrandt. I think the best way for him to have a successful MLB career is to be a LOOGY (like Milner) working behind his plus CU.

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          1. Whatever can make Thompson a useful pitcher I’m in favor of.

            I think Leibrandt is either going to be a starter or nothing at all. I don’t think he has the stuff to pitch out of the pen – even in middle relief.

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  6. Tim…you will like this bit of information
    MLB hitters smashed the record for most homers in a season, crushing the mark set in 2000, the steroid era. In that 2000 season, 101 batters hit 20 or more homers. This year, 111 batters have 20 or more homers, with a week to go. And the flip sider: the explosion of Ks. During the 2000 season, 58 batters had 100 or more strikeouts. In 2017, 126 batters have 100 or more Ks
    Times are different, of course. Pitchers throw harder than they used to, and front offices prefer to use hard-throwing relievers rather than allow a lot of starting pitchers to face a lineup for a third time within a game. But some believe that many players would be better served by trying to make contact instead of trying to angle their swings and hit a fly ball. Joey Votto, who is generally regarded as perhaps one of the smartest hitter in the game Recently, Votto talked about how he came into this year devoted to the task of cutting down on his strikeouts. Votto decided to cut down on his swing as he got deeper into the count — choking up a little more after one strike, and even more on two-strike counts. At times, Votto seems to wield his bat like a tennis player at the net, volleying pitches foul just to stay alive.
    I think the Phillies already have a few hitters with Votto’s plate discipline…..Hoskins and JPC.

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    1. True but there’s only 1 Votto really , Really good.Jp I don’t think the avg Hr power is there yet. He’s young so it may take a couple of years . Hoskins a little like the new type power hitter single , walk , or Hr little else. I mean Olson on Oakland had 2 doubles but 19 hr , Judge too about ,26 double’s but 48 he’s. So many hitters crushing the ball. JD Martinez 41 hr 97 RBIs in 412 atbats.Bellinger , Zimmerman, Gallo , Stanton etc. I think its the injuries to the young pitchers plus command & control probelms . I mean 5 ing per start is horrible that will kill your BP . That’s why you need 3 pitches plus command & control. Nola is turning into a very special pitcher. I’d be happy with a Lynn or a trade for a young proven ML pitcher.

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  8. I am not his biggest supporter, and I especially do not like Freddy batting #2, but I think he is back. Whether he is the Manager of the team when they make the playoffs again, is a whole different story.

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    1. Just now a prime example of what a Mackanin team lacks – Cesar singles to lead off, Freddy doesn’t bunt or do anything to move him NOR does Cesar try to steal 2b, Williams K’s as Cesar remains at 1b. Hoskins flies deep for an out which might have been a sac fly for a smarter, even slightly aggressive team/mgr. He’s not the manager of the future IMO.

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      1. Just read Todd Zolecki’s report on Pete’s meeting with Klentak this weekend and that he doesn’t know whether he’ll be back in ’18. Pete’s quotes seem to indicate a defensiveness of him and the staff, mentioning that you need better players. Secondly, Zolecki usually doesn’t post articles unless he’s sensing an imminent change. I’m probably reading too much into it and I guess my views on Mackanin (who I think is a good guy but not a good manager) play into it as well.

        McClure is one candidate to be replaced, I’m sure – that wouldn’t be a shock to anyone. Another guy who has not impressed is Morandini. Not sure how long Bowa will stay on board although the FO may value his input as an advisor. Samuel has a history with MacKlentak since his Baltimore days. Stairs will likely return because of the uptick in the young lineup.

        Whether it’s imminent or not, the next manager may be already hanging around the dugout this month. His name is Dusty Wathan.

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        1. I agree with him that they need better players but its also his job to put guys in positions to succeed and he doesn’t do that very well either. Galvis should not be hitting 2nd and Franco should have been hitting in the bottom of the order much earlier in the season.

          As for the coaching staff, I do not think Samual is very good as a 3b coach, see too many guys thrown out at the plate by wide margins. I’m on the fence with McClure because I don’t think he has much to work with right now..

          Biggest problem I have with Mack is that they don’t have great overall speed on the team but they do have some guys that can run. What they don’t do is try to run, they don’t move runners, hit and run, etc. He’s an old school station to station manager..

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        2. i believe in the value of coaching and mentoring – especially for the young players where the Phils has in abundance. The weaknesses that the team has is obvious (i.e. pitching, base running) and FO should assess if they have the best option currently in the team, and if not, then go out to find the best out there. No need to be sentimental, everybody in the league are professionals and gets paid a lot – they get it if they were fired. With the very low commitment in player salary, Klentak have budget flexibility to re-align some of the $$ to hire the best coach out there because it will take some time to develop really good players.

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  9. Cesar Hernandez continues to play well (despite some issues stealing bases), and (assuming Matt Klentak shops him this winter) is really doing the Phillies a solid. CeHe’s performance down the stretch is reminiscent of what Cole Hamels did for his trade value when he threw a no-hitter in his last start with the club. I understand MLB GM’s don’t judge players/prospects on a “what have they done lately” basis, but leaving a great last impression beats the heck out of going cold as the team tries to deal you. With that said, I’ve been mapping out possible Cesar scenarios.

    COMPARISON: Last off-season, Tampa traded Logan Forsythe to the Dodgers for Jose De Leon. Forsythe had just turned 30 YO at the time of that deal. Hernandez will only be 27 at the time of a potential trade this winter. Forsythe, like Cesar, was coming off two very good seasons. According to Fangraphs, Forsythe tallied WAR’s of 4.0 in 2015 and 2.7 in 2016. Hernandez registered 4.3 WAR in 2016 and 3.1 WAR so far this season. Forsythe was also under team control for two years, while Cesar doesn’t reach free agency for another three years. De Leon was the Dodgers #2 prospect (right behind Cody Belinger) and #33 overall.

    TEAMS IN NEED OF A 2BMAN: Rays, Angels, Padres, Reds
    TEAMS WHO MIGHT NEED A 2BMAN: Tigers, Dodgers, Jays

    The Reds and Padres are in rebuild mode and may rather wait on MIF prospects in the upper levels of their farm system. The Tigers and Dodgers have 2Bmen they have to make decisions on. Detroit can pay Ian Kinsler 11 million dollars for 2018 or buy him out for 5 million. It’s very unlikely the Tigers would buy him out, but it’s very possible they could trade Kinsler. The Dodgers have a 8.5 million dollar team option on Logan Forsythe, or they can release him for 1 million. There’s probably at least a decent chance LA parts ways with Forsythe. Forsythe has been pretty bad this year (.228/.357/.325 and .195/.319/.270 vs RHP). Toronto’s 2Bman Devon Travis is a good young player, but suffered a knee injury this season and then re-injured it while rehabbing. He played in only 50 games. The Blue Jays may need a 2Bman depending on Travis’ long term health.

    2B OPTIONS: Eric Sogard and Neal Walker are impending FA’s. So is Eduardo Nunez as a utility guy, but a team could sign him as 2Bman. Forsythe could hit the market if the Dodgers cut bait with him. Kinsler and even Dee Gordon could become available via trades. The bad news is the 2B market may be watered down a bit. The good news is Cesar Hernandez is a better “get” than any of the previously mentioned players other than Dee Gordon. Gordon, however, will probably be paid almost twice as much over Cesar’s next three years of arbitration.

    POSSIBLE TRADE RETURNS FOR HERNANDEZ: The Phillies are going to want pitching (LHP would be best). They should prefer MLB ready arms, but should at least consider high end prospects.

    RAYS … Give me Blake Snell. The 24 YO LHP is former first round draft pick, was a top 50 MiLB prospect, and (like De Leon) peaked as a #2 organizational prospect. He’s looked like a solid MOR starter during his two seasons in Tampa. If Snell isn’t available, I really like Tampa’s top ranked minor leaguer, Brett Honeywell. He’s the #3 pitching prospect in MiLB, and he’ll be throwing from a big league mound next season.

    Jays … Pretty sure Toronto would not give up Vlad Guerrero Jr or Bo Bichette (both top 25 prospects) for Cesar. This year’s first round pick, Nate Pearson has an enormous ceiling. The big (6’6″, 245 lb) RHP has hit 100 MPH. He dominated the lower levels after the draft (20 IP, 7 H, 5 BB, 26 K, .106 BA), but he may be a serious arm injury waiting to happen because he’s been throwing with a screw in his elbow since HS. Other than those guys, are there any Blue Jays who get you excited ? Glad you asked. I’m going to admit right now Aaron Sanchez is one of my favorite players in baseball. Sanchez has an ACE ceiling. However, he’s been a bit fragile (although never any serious arm issues). The Jays were careful early in his career to use him mostly out of the bullpen to limit his innings. Last year, he threw almost 200 innings; but this season he managed only 36 IP because of blisters and a strained ligament in his finger. Toronto would never trade Sanchez for CeHe straight up, but what if Klentak offered Cesar and Jerad Eickhoff ? Can’t hurt to ask.

    ANGELS … I’ve already mentioned (maybe 2 dozen times) that Tyler Skaggs is a realistic target. Skaggs has the pedigree (former 1st round pick, #1 organizational prospect, and top 10 overall prospect). He’s now 26 YO, and has a TJ under his belt. He’s pitching more like a #4 starter, but is still young enough that there may be more in the future. Jason Martinez of MLB Trade Rumors said, in a chat last week, Skaggs could be a starting point for a deal. The Angels have upgraded their farm system over the past 16 months. Maybe Klentak settles for Skaggs, athletic 19 YO OF Brandon Marsh (.350 /.396/.548, 10 SB in rookie ball) and/or 18 YO RHP Jose Soriano (52.1 IP, 47 H, 18 BB, 39 K also in rookie ball). Soriano is tall and lanky (6’3″, 165) and already touches 95.

    TIGERS … I’ve also mentioned a number of times that Daniel Norris makes sense. I’ve liked Norris since he was a top prospect in the Blue Jays organization. The Phillies would be buying low on the former 2nd round LHP. Since being traded to Detroit, Norris has dealt with a cancer scare, and back, hip, and leg injuries. If the Phillies feel Norris will get healthy, maybe Klentak can pull off a CeHe for Norris and a prospect deal.

    And then there is the DODGERS … LA is loaded with pitching at both the major league and minor league levels. The question is … do the Dodgers feel it’s worth giving up an arm(s) for a 2Bman for the second straight year? They dealt Jose De Leon (one of their top prospects) for Logan Forsythe last off-season.
    If LA has interest in Cesar, the first guy I would ask for is Alex Wood. The Dodgers would immediately say “no” (again, it never hurts to ask) , and I would move on to their farm system.
    I would do a Cesar for Mitchell White and Melvin Jiminez trade. White gets lost among all the other Dodgers prospects, but he may end up being as good as any of them not named Walker Buehler. He’s a really good RHP prospect (73.2 IP, 45 H, 31 BB, 88 K, .172 BA over 3 levels, ending in AA this season). This deal would be similar to the one the Dodgers made to acquire Forsythe. De Leon was ranked higher than White at the time of that trade, but I think White is going to be a much better pitcher when all is said and done. I would actually do a Cesar for White deal straight up, but Klentak could also ask for Jiminez to be included. He is a young, small framed (6’0″, 170 lbs) Dominican who throws hard (sound familiar?). Jiminez made it to full season A-ball this year before he turned 18 YO. More importantly, he was excellent there (28 IP, 19 H, 12 BB, 36 K).

    BEST OUTCOME … a Cesar Hernandez for Blake Snell deal. However, I’m not confident the Rays would trade their only LHSP (especially one with 5 years of team control) for a 2Bman. Honeywell and White are minor leaguers that I’d be thrilled to land.

    MOST LIKELY OUTCOME … a trade with the Angels for Tyler Skaggs, Brandon Marsh, and/or Jose Soriano

    NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION … Klentak doesn’t like any trade proposals, and signs Cesar to an extension. He then tries to deal Hernandez again at the deadline.

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    1. Very well researched, Hinkie. Thanks for an informed outlook. I rely on your posts as much as any other helpful source. Keep on!

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    2. I thing Logan Forsythe hit 20 hr’s and can play 3rd . Ceaser can’t play 3,Rd and isn’t a 20 hr guy. The Dodgers also have Austin Barnes there Cather can play 2nd. Then there’s Chris Taylor who’s playing CF because To!es is out for the yr. B Phillips is playing for The Angels well they might resign him . No clue what the Jays are doing they have 3 2nd Base man .

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    3. Hinkie…very good.
      From the Rays agree….Snell is my first choice but need to give a little more, another pitching prospect I would think, than Cesar to get Snell.
      But also, I would take Honeywell…I think that can be done one for one.
      As for Skaggs….still on the table with that…saw him the other night vs the Atros…great action on his CB, but lacks consistent FB velo right now to me.
      Astros were able to hit him a bit…but they are the one of the best hitting teams and Altuve hits everybody.

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      1. I’d be looking at the Padres at least a little bit because they have a really good stock pile of pitching prospects who are LHP….Eric Lauer or Lucchesi should be doable targets.

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      2. Romus … I saw that Angels – Astros game, also. You’re right. Skaggs’ CB looked good. His FB lacked movement. He got hit around that night, but a week or so earlier, Skaggs went 7 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 1 BB, 5 K against Houston. Like I mentioned above, he’s probably a #4 starter. He’s still young enough (LHP’s seem to usually take a little longer to develop) that maybe he becomes a #3.

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    4. @Hinkie – i agree with your preferred destination although I still believe in economics when it comes to trade value. To maximize trade return it will require reciprocating trade partner – in this case, a contending team with a good farm – so it all points to LAD (who has been a good trader partner for the Phils in years now). You pointed out the biggest stumbling block, will LAD deal a high end prospect again for 2B 2 years in a row? I’m more certain that LAD and Phils had a conversion about Cesar last year and I wonder why it didn’t push thru.

      Cesar is like Jahlil Okafor – a very capable complimentary player with specific skills (but not all around skills), young and cost controlled. The Sixers need to find a perfect trade partner and the the longer the Sixer hold Okafor, the more the Sixers lose leverage. That being said, Klentak should try to shoot for the stars but at the same time moderate his greed. Because having Cesar, Kingery, JPC and Galvis in the same team will be counterproductive to all.

      My suggested approach will be:

      1) LAD (if they let go of Forsythe) – White (straight up) or one of Oaks and May plus another low minor prospect like Jimenez

      2) DET – Beau Burrows or Funkhouser plus a low minor prospect; or absorb Kinsler (subsequently trade him or release him to give way to Kingery) plus Burrows or Funkhouser and Gerson Moreno (will be the future closer)

      3) TB – TB might give value on Cesar as cost controlled asset and Klentak can further add value if he package one of the young cost controlled SPs to get a Honeywell. If Cesar alone, I’ll settle for de Leon or Franklin + another low minor prospect.

      4) LAA – have poor shallow farm. Skaggs and whoever Klentak can get.

      5) TOR – I see them signing a stop gap 2B, Forsythe in particular is LAD let him go.

      My above proposal is not the best value but the essence of it is like addition by subtraction. Clearing the way for Kingery and start playing the new core together will start the clock to contention.

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        2. having the 2B market in 2018-19 in mind is why I’m pushing for the Phils to trade Cesar. It will take a perfect trade partner to extract value (acceptable to the Cesar supporter) for Cesar. To me, roll with the dice, take the highest possible return they can get from the market for Cesar, let Kingery take Cesar’s spot at 2B and assuming Kingery sucks (and i believe he will not because he is good), then sign a 2B from the 2018-19.

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  10. Five games to go and (Tim can’t believe it, but) the Phillies are back on top for the bottom spot and the 1-1 pick.

    Phillies …… 62 – 95 (proud owners of the tie breaker)
    Giants ……. 62 – 95
    Tigers …….. 62 – 94
    CWS ……… 64 – 92

    Other factors in the Phillies favor:
    * Aaron Nola won’t pitch again this season.
    * DBacks (Giants are in AZ right now) have already clinched home field for WC.
    * Twins (Tigers finish season in MN) will clinch second WC spot probably on Tuesday and can’t catch the Yankees for home field.

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  11. “To me, he’s (Nola) a solid No. 3 starter.”…Mack
    Very realistic assessment…also points to the fact the Phillies org may feel the need to get one or two TORs somehow and that perhaps there are no guarantees Nola will fill that role. .

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    1. Man, talking about damning a guy with feint praise.

      In 27 starts (he missed 6 starts), Nola is 12th in pitching WAR with 4.3 WAR. He is not pitching like a #3, he is pitching like a 2 at worst or at best a 1A.

      We will see if he can continue this next year, but I don’t see any reason why he cannot. It’s not as thought teams like the Nationals are figuring him out – to the contrary, he seems to be figuring out his opponents and getting better.

      If he continues as is, he’s a TOR guy (which I view as a 1 or a 2 and right now, he’s definitely a 2), which would be great.

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  12. Great job Hinkie, I think the Rays and the Angels are the best bets to move Cesar, and I also agree with KuKo that the longer the logjam continues, the less leverage the Phils have. I can’t see how waiting until the trade deadline improves the return.

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      1. …and many of those 2Bs will be on the market at the deadline as well, Hinkie. So I “second” your thought (pun intended).

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  13. Not sure if this was already posted elsewhere, but Ohtani is currently in the process of interviewing prospective MLB agents. Let’s hope he hires somebody with whom the Phillies have either a good history or a guy compatible with what they might have to offer. In the end, regardless of who Ohtani signs with, we better be given a clear idea of what was undertaken by this front office, and especially John Middleton, to acquire him.

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      1. That opens up an interesting dilemma for many interested clubs, Romus. Who’s to say he gets to FA in 2019 if the original acquiring club finds a compelling way to lock him up with an extension sometime during his first 2 MLB seasons? Ideally, your notion makes sense, BUT it may not be an option for us or any club that takes that posture.

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        1. I believe according to the CBA ….that team will not be able to have the opportunity to ‘extend’ him. He has to sign next season under a minor league contract and may not be tendered. at least that is what was written last week by a few writers,
          He becomes a free agent in Nov 2019.
          Now he may be comfortable where he has played for the last two years, but you never know what the circumstances will be at that time with that team.
          Plus I can see 29 other teams pressuring the commissioner to open up an investigation to see if there were any nefarious dealings that took place between the team and him and his agent.

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        2. 8mark…now this confuses me even more.
          Jon Heyman…….”The Yankees and Red Sox were reported here to have acquired the most bonus money ($3.25 million) as of a few weeks ago, giving each team $8 million minus what’s been committed elsewhere. So Otani, who could probably get $250 million-plus as an unrestricted free agent, may sign for 1-3 percent of that ($2.5 million to $8 million), then be held to the regular salary limitations of a normal rookie next year. That means he’d be eligible for arbitration in close to three years and free agency in six years. So at 29 he’d be able to hit the jackpot, presumably.”

          ……I thought he would be a free agent at 25 years old.

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          1. Wow! Then only if he waited until 2019. If what Heyman lays out is true, I would think an extension with the team signing him would likely be agreed to verbally.

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  14. Guys, please help me. I thought if he waits until 25 then he can make as much money as he can get. If he comes this year, he can only get the allocated amount, for instance, a team in the “penalty phase” can give him $300K. Others have a “Cap” of $6M. That is his Bonus. He signs a Minor League contract, and then when he makes the team, he gets the minimum, which I think is $535K. But, the Nippon Ham Fighters can get a huge payout from the team that signs him? How does the league enforce Otani not getting a piece of that $? And, how does the team that signs him only get him for 2 years? Does the CBA eliminate Arb years for guys coming here from overseas?

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    1. matt13….you pose questions that the latest CBA was really intended to clarify when it came to the international market.
      —–But, the Nippon Ham Fighters can get a huge payout from the team that signs him? How does the league enforce Otani not getting a piece of that $?…..if they want to continue to do business with the MLB , then the NPL and its team will play by the rules. The NPL teams do not want to have a free market and have the MLB teams raid their players without any compensation, and that is what will happen if their is such a ‘under-the table deal’. You will not bite the hands that feeds you.
      —–And, how does the team that signs him only get him for 2 years? Does the CBA eliminate Arb years for guys coming here from overseas?
      This is what confused me from the above article. That is what i thought from reading articles about it a few weeks ago….then I saw the above Jon Heyman piece and now do not know what happens.

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      1. MLB has botched this whole “Otani Coming To America” thing. It’s ridiculous for Rob Manfred (and the owners) to have made it so difficult/complicated/tempting to cheat to sign the Japanese superstar. Otani should just say, “Grandfather me in to the old rules, or I’ll see you in 2020”.

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        1. Totally agree. It’s like they purposely invited this dilemma, which doesn’t enhance MLBs appeal on a larger scale in terms of marketing vs the other major sports. Otani may flame out early for all we know but the apparent attempt to discourage him from coming over, if not outright block him, is mind boggling, not to mention the conundrum and confusion it’s already created among the national pubs with the CBAs confounding rules.

          And speaking of the national media, I’m annoyed to no end with the automatic speculation that one of the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and maybe the Cubs are the most likely landing spots. Come on, Johnny M! Rattle the change in your deep pockets and if nothing else, force these (OTHER) big market clubs to go way above and beyond to sign this kid.

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          1. 8mark……next year there are no bidding wars……he cannot get more than the standard under 25age rate. if you are talking a million here or there, that will be the end result.
            It is after the 2019 season when the bidding begins for his services long term at the stratosphere level.

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            1. But Romus, if Otani begins his MLB career in ’18, then will he in fact become a FA after the ’19 season? Or will he have to endure the six year arb process until he’s 29 after 2023? That’s what I’m not clear on….anybody?

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            2. 8mark……that is what the Jon Heyman article alluded to….that is why it confused me, since he has to sign a minor league contract next year. He would become a FA under that circumstance. But Jon Heyman’s piece says exactly what you refer to even with signing a minor league contract..
              I will have to find other written pieces on his situation.

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            3. 8mark…I cannot find anything about this kind of a unique situation with Otani other than what they agreed upon in the last CBA:
              CBA Dec 2016
              ATTACHMENT 46 International Amateur Talent System

              D.Contract Requirements
              1. All players subject to the Signing Bonus Pool system must sign a Minor League Uniform Player Contract.

              F. Exemptions from the Signing Bonus Pool… 1. Bonuses paid to International Players will not count toward a Club’s Signing Bonus Pool in the following two circumstances: a. Players who previously contracted with a Major or Minor League Club, unless that previous contract was voided, terminated, or not approved by the Office of the Commissioner or the Club based on the results of an Age and Identity Investigation, the inability of the player to obtain a visa to work in the United States, a failed physical examination pursuant to paragraph XVII of the 291 Minor League Uniform Player Contract, or circumvention pursuant to Section H below. See also Section B.7 above. b. Players who are at least 25 years of age and have played as a professional in a foreign league recognized by the Commissioner’s Office for a minimum of six seasons (“Foreign Professional”).

              H. Circumvention …No Club or player (including their designated representatives) may enter into any understanding, agreement, or transaction, or make any representation, whether implied or explicit, that is designed to defeat or circumvent the provisions of the International Amateur Talent System. Any Club (or its representatives) that is found to have engaged in circumvention or attempted circumvention will be subject to sanctions by the Commissioner, including fines, suspensions, non-approval of the transaction(s) or contract(s), and loss of future signing rights. A non-exclusive list of conduct that will subject Clubs (and Club personnel) to sanctions includes: 1. Providing, paying, or promising a player, his advisor, his foreign league or federation, his trainer or his family members anything of value other than the compensation and benefits contained in the Minor League contract. 2. Making any payments to, or providing anything of value to, an individual advising, representing or training a player. 3. Agreeing to enter into any business transaction with a player’s advisor or trainer, including signing other players represented by the advisor or trainer, as consideration for a player entering into a contract with a Club. 4. Promising, representing, or committing that a player will be placed on the Club’s Major League roster by a particular date. 5. Releasing a player as part of a scheme to exclude a Signing Bonus contained in the player’s next contract from being charged to a Club’s Signing Bonus Pool. 6. Promising, representing, or committing to sign a player to another Minor League contract or a Major League contract in the future, or to provide additional compensation or benefits under the extant contract (such as a higher salary in future years of the Minor League contract).
              Any Club that is found to have willfully circumvented the requirements of the International Amateur Talent System by providing, directly or indirectly, more compensation or other consideration to a player than is permitted under the System may be disciplined by the Commissioner, up to and including a prohibition on that Club signing any International Players for up to one (1) year or having its Signing Bonus Pool decreased by up to 50% for up to five (5) years.

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            4. That’s a mouthful, Romus. Thanks for looking into it. Now if somebody could translate all that regarding the Otani situation, that would be great. Where’s Tim?

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  15. 3 teams have 62 wins I love it . The nats are in the Mets stink the Phillies can win out. Minn didn’t win , The Angels are beating CWS 6 to 1 . Minn is Tied 4 to4 against Cleveland. the Tigers are 0 – 0 Ciny is losing 4 to 2 against Mil.I love close races.

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  16. I Was wrong again. I said in beginning of season the phillies would win 62 games. .I now see they will be better than that , Have to admit when I am wrong.

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  17. Good game for Jake Thompson last night. Jake’s September numbers look good excluding the one game in WAS back in 9/8. Jake is only 23 yo and looks physically durable so he still has time to turn his MLB career around. Outside of his SL who is starting to come back as a plus pitch, Jake’s other pitching repertoire (FB, SPL, CB, CU) looks no better than average and the BB rate needs to go down significantly to continue as a viable SP. Jake might have saved his 40-spot this offseason.

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  18. Kurdt, agree about Jake Thompson saving his job with the Phillies. If he can continue to pitch like this then he could contend for a starting job. It would be nice if he could pitch longer than 5-6 innings and save the bullpen from being overused. Changing his pitching position seems to have helped him a lot.

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    1. unfortunately, I don’t think that happens because he will always have to live on the fringes of the plate, requiring a lot of deep counts to hitters.

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      1. Jake is only 23 yo and still have time (and opportunity) to figure things out. But if not, the Phils should consider moving him in the pen. Morgan increased his FB velo by 2-3 mph. Jake with his age and physicality, should be able to generate extra zip in that FB. And moving to the pen, can make Jake focus on his best pitch – SL.

        But for 2018, I will let Jake battle it out at SP and prove that he can pitch better and lower down the BB rate.

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  19. Phillies with the third pick now at .399.
    Win a more games and drop to fourth, or even let Cincy catch them at 5th, odds are that Singer and Kowar will both be taken.

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    1. Romus … Singer and Kowar may not be gone in the top four picks. D1 Baseball.com has Singer as the draft’s #4 rated prospect and Kowar at #6.
      The one positive that could come of the Phillies not landing the 1-1 pick is they might consider HSRHP Ethan Hankins. Hankins is the #1 ranked prospect and, if the Phillies want to roll the dice on a kid with a sky-high ceiling, he would be the easy choice. They would never take him at 1-1, but would they draft him at 1-3 ? I know HS arms are risky (especially for injuries; OUCH !), but he is tempting.

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      1. Well the Dodgers took Kershaw at 7 in 2006.
        The track record is limited with HS pitchers success stories drafted in the top ten…well as compared to college pitchers. Also maybe because teams shy away from doing it.

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      2. “sky high ceiling” – Johnny A.’s is allergic to those kind of prospects. Johnny A. is afraid of heights because he believes that the higher you fly the harder you fall.

        Honestly, if only the Phils can let someone else handle the Day 1 of the Rule IV draft and give Days 2 and 3 back to Johnny A., the Phils might end up having the best draft class in 2018.

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          1. yeah, if only the Phils can “autodraft” Day 1 so it picks the next highest rank prospect. but in reality i know it’s not how baseball draft works.

            with most upper level prospects (Hoskins, JPC, Alfaro, Williams, Arano) already in the majors, and some more potentially coming up, it is possible that a change in draft strategy can happen in 2018 – focusing on Nola-like close to MLB prospects or even drafting a high ceiling prospect early.

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      3. Drafts between 2000 and 2010…top ten draft pick HS pitchers taken were:
        Kershaw…..Zach Greinke…..Madison Bumgarner…Jameson Taillon…Homer Bailey…Jarrod Parker….John Danks…..Gavin Floyd.
        These eight seem to be the most successful…but cannot argue with the top three.

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      4. My guess is they call him Hank…such a great nick name Hank….you can even parlay that into ‘Hank the Tank”

        Is it me or does Hinkie treat this stuff like an inmate would a conjugal visit? I say that lovingly of course.

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        2. FYI DMAR, not giving too much away about my identity, but in my youth, I was called both those names (seriously).

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  20. Also … D1 Baseball starts off the their Top 100 for the 2018 Draft with this:

    “The 2018 MLB Draft class has the components to be one of the most memorable and talented in recent memory. Defined by a group of high school pitchers that is as explosive as perhaps any we’ve ever seen, this is also a class that is rapidly developing an impressive top tier of college talent as well.”

    This is why I’ve been proposing a “Own The Draft” strategy for the Phillies !
    Come April, Klentak should be eating salaries and selling off surplus AAAA starters (I’m talking you Mark Leiter) for comp picks.

    This December, I want to see video of Matt Klentak standing outside the Walt Disney World Swan and Dolphin Resort in Orlando, Florida (home of this year’s winter meetings) screaming, “GIVE ME ALL YOUR COMP PICKS !!!”

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    1. What were the return values for past comp picks?
      Then you can gauge what the Phillies have to offer to match the prior exchange rates.
      Not sure a Mark Leiter will get it done.

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      1. The one example I was able to find of a team trading their Comp A pick was in 2014. The Marlins traded their Competitive Balance Round A selection to the Pirates in exchange for right-hander Bryan Morris. The Pirates received the 39th pick in the Draft that followed just days later. Morris is a RH reliever with one career save. That save came two years after this trade. Morris was 27 YO at the time. In 2014, Morris was 40.2 IP, 33 H, 12 BB, 36 K. 0.66 ERA with the Marlins at the time of that trade.
        So, yes, history shows the Phillies could receive a Comp A pick for a reliever like Luis Garcia (I don’t know that I’d do that) or Adam Morgan (definitely would not do that). Maybe they could package Pinto with Jake Thompson (I would do that).

        There are many more examples of teams trading their Comp B picks. They typically go to teams willing to eat as little as 2.4 million dollars worth of unwanted salary.

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        2. Forgot to post there have been other comp A picks (other than Marlins 2014 pick I wrote about above) traded. However, the other traded comp A picks were part of larger deals.

          Bottom line … Klentak should be targeting the Orioles comp A pick (part of a ToJo for Trumbo trade or by sending Baltimore an extra pitcher {or two}) and the Marlins comp B pick (eat Edinson Volquez’s salary).

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    2. Mark Lieter is better then any comp pick why ? he’s a healthy and he’s made it though the ranks . The comp A could do zip. I mean the Phillies are going to start going for a playoff soon. I think if the Phillies start making bigger moves this yr on the pro level . The trades they make will be for mlb players.

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      1. Its ceiling vs floor.
        Comp picks have higher ceilings than Mark Leiter will ever have.
        If a team is willing to settle for a reliever/5th starter an give up the 31st pick for him…then more power to them. But do not think any GM in their right mind would trade the 31st pick for Mark Leiter straight up…maybe Kilome or Medina or Suarez or Eshelman or Anderson..they probably would do..
        Now Round B…late 60s thru mid-70s pick…now that is a possibility.
        Perhaps even Mark Appel may get you the 75th pick..long shot but who knows..

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        1. @romus – without absorbing $$, I think the best way to get that comp pick is to trade some of the pen arms. Morgan and Neris might generate interest for early comp picks while a combo of Milner, Garcia and lower end SP might work for the lower comp picks.

          I would prefer for Klentak to keep the likes Kilome, Medina, Seranthony from any comp pick conversations.

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          1. I guess he could try……it may work that the pen arms would look attractive to 2018 contending small revenue teams that have comp picks…Cleveland, Houston, Pirates, D-Backs

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        2. True but …. How long to the show and if there need them by the time get there ,if they get there. What I’m saying Lieter is at the ml level producing . No one can see that about a new draft pick.I beat Lieter has a better carrier then Appel . I’m not flying high on Lieter it’s just when you trade a young player for picks the odds are your going to get burned.

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      2. Tim … Mark Leiters are growing on trees in Clearwater, Williamsport, Lakewood, Reading, and LHV. He’s a possible long man out of the BP. Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, Jackie Bradley Jr, Michael Fulmer, Trevor Story, Joe Musgrove, Lance McCullers, Joey Gallo, Matt Olson, Zach Efflin, Sean Manaea, Derek Fisher, Brent Honeywell, Triston McKenzie, Joey Wentz, Jeter Downs, Zac Lowther, Daulton Varsho, and (one of your favorites) Brent Rooker are all guys drafted with comp picks over the last 8 years. The 2018 draft is supposed to be the “most loaded” draft since 2010 (eight years ago).
        If you want to roll with Mark Leiter, so be it. I’ll roll the dice and take my chances that Johnny Almarez hits on a prospect like the ones mentioned earlier.

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        1. I always the next draft is the best ever. 2 unless it has a Harper , Byrant and so on. If it’s HS Pitching then they go up and down all yr.even if the player a stud he may take 3 yrs a d be blocked by that time .

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    3. @Hinkie – if Angelos really intend to make that one last run before facing the risk of losing Machado and Britton via FA, they may not let go of Trumbo unless he tanks early in the 2018 season. if the Trumbo way is not possible, would you deal any of the MLB ready RPs for BAL comp pick?

      Also, Klentak should be dangling Pivetta, Eflin, Jake and Lively as the cost controlled SP to get any attention from with comp picks to spare. Leiter will only give Klentak cash or PTBNL just like Asher.

      I’m prefer using the $$ in signing legit MLB players (not stop gap) but if Klentak can be creative enough to deal some young players and absorb contracts for comp picks, I will co-sign with that.

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      2. The Orioles are making one last run at a championship with their current core. Next season is not only the last year for MM, Adam Jones, Zach Britton, and Brad Brach, but Dan Duquette and Buck Schowalter’s contracts also are up. Baltimore is scrambling to find SP. They have Kevin Gaussman and Dylan Bundy and nothing after that. If they are taking a pass on restocking their farm system by holding on to the four soon-to-be FA’s I listed above … you gotta’ believe they’re not going to let a comp pick stand in the way of acquiring even a pitcher like Leiter (who would be a back end starter in Baltimore next season). Maybe you sweeten the deal by including Jacob Waguespack .
        In the past, the O’s have given up comp B picks to rid themselves of contracts worth between 3 and 4 million dollars. This is a team the Phillies should target.

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        1. Adam Jones could be used as trade bait. Austin Hays could start next yr in the outfield. Plus there losing close to 100 mil in contacts this yr.

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      3. KuKo …

        .234/.289/.398, 23 HR
        .239/.288/.432, 22 HR

        First guy is Trumbo. Second guy is ToJo. Other than the 26 million dollars owed to Trumbo, is there really any difference ? As a matter of fact, 26 million (plus ToJo) is way too much money for the Phillies to have to eat for a comp A pick. I’ve said the Phillies need a prospect included in that deal. Also, a trade for a comp pick can’t be (officially) made until the start of next season, anyway.

        I would hold on to Pivetta and Efflin.
        I would look to include Lively and/or, Thompson, and/or Jose Taveras in a Cesar Hernandez deal to bring back a better pitcher.

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        1. For me, the following players are in play without a second thought – and when I say “in play” I don’t mean a dump to just get rid of these players who have appeared in the majors this year (although some fit that description). I mean in the right trade.

          Hernandez
          Lively
          Eickhoff
          Alfaro
          Thompson
          Leiter
          Williams (I’m not picking on the guys from the Hamels trade, I just think their ceilings are all limited)
          Rupp
          Galvis
          Most guys in the BP not named Neris or Morgan

          We all know the virtually untouchables (Nola, Hoskins, Crawford), so I won’t talk about them, but guys I would be very hesitant to trade (doesn’t include minor leaguers like Kingery, but he’s there too) are:

          Franco (value is too low now – they should wait it out a little – why give him away?)
          Odubel
          Neris
          Morgan
          Altherr
          Knapp (if we trade him away, I think we will regret it in a few years in a big way – he’s one of my 2018 MLB breakout candidates – if Pete actually plays him)

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          1. I meant to add Pivetta and Velasquez to the list. Pivetta because, when he turns the corner (which I think he’s close to doing), he could be really, really good. Velasquez because he could also be good and his market value is at a low ebb).

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          2. Knapp would have fit more nicely in the two-hole this season…when he played…then Freddy did. Knapp’s ability to get on base via the walk was a real plus in his favor.
            I sure hope next season …if Freddy is still here….he better not be in the two-hole.
            I want to see the beat guys ask Mack next week why he batted Freddy there all season?

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            1. When you bat Freddy in the two-hole all season when there are clearly much better options, it’s like you’re asking to be fired. Don’t they talk to him about this? Analytics aren’t worth much in a vacuum – they need to be applied to game-day managerial decisions.

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            2. In the exit press , probably Monday or Tuesday…the writers need to ask that direct question to Mack. Just as the Eagles beat guys did a few years ago to Kelly on the 53-90 man roster makeup determination.
              Surely if you look at all the two-hole hitters in the majors…Freddy’s OBP has to be at the bottom or close to it.
              But then again…perhaps OBP means nothing to the manager.

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            3. Pete is meeting with Klentak this Saturday. It will be interesting to find out what coaching staff changes are made. I’m not a Mackanin fan but my guess is he’s back for his final year with Dusty Wathan alongside (ala Ryno/Charlie a few years ago). If McClure isn’t relieved of his duties – as Pacino said in “And Justice For All” – “…then there’s something reeeally wrong going on here.”

              Regardless of who is let go, of course I’d like to see Chooch hired as asst pitching/catching/bullpen coach.

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            4. Who your options next yr is Herandez is traded. I mean Jp young and needs to really work on k % He’s hitting .210 .306 slg .657 .ops at 77 atbats . Jp would have to take in Spring training to earn hitting hi in the line up. I think both Herandez and Galvis are traded before Spring training. That would leave Herrera , the 2nd baseman , Altherr, Hoskins, Williams, Franco, Knapp , Jp . I mean the Phillies could go with Ty Kelly or Valinten at 2nd until May. It all depends on how Jp hits with power and Avg. I do like the Herrera , Kingery , Altherr that’s power speed combo with plenty of HR and Double’s. Jp is still young but you cant stick him at the top of the line up if he’s not hitting.

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        2. @Hinkie – yes on Pivetta, I’ve been posting here that liked him a lot. But I will still try to dangle him and maybe someone will be willing to overcompensate.

          I also like Eflin. but unlike Pivetta, I don’t see Eflin playing effectively as a high leverage arm in the pen as a fallback. I actually prefer Anderson and Dominguez over Eflin.

          I can see Klentak including Taveras in a Cesar Hernandez trade.

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          1. Give Tarveras a shot a the majors you really don’t know how he’ll do. Eflin ,Pivetta had there chance I think Eflin done he looked really bad this yr. Pivetta numbers have to get better in the first have next yr . Don’t forget the Phillies slogan ” control the stike zone”.

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    1. It’s looking like #3 will be the Phils resting spot in the draft. The Tigers and Giants seem to have #1 and #2 sewn up. Statistically, they aren’t there yet but they are close. The White Sox still have a decent shot at surpassing the Phils for #3. Also the Phils are in no danger of being last in run differential. They are 7th worst now and a lousy last 3 games would probably only leave them 5th worst.

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    2. Hinkie….hopefully Singer and Kowar stay healthy and perform as expected next season in the SEC, and either would fit nicely in the rotation in 2019.
      I am not sure if they go HSer on the third pick however.
      PS…..if you want it seen and considered, then send your ideas on what the Phillies should think about, addressed to Matt Klentak at 1 Citizens Bank Way, Phila PA 19148. He will reply to you.

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      1. Alex Cobb could be a start.
        If he recaptures his ’13 and ’14 seasons, now a few years past TJ, could be looking at a potential top of the rotation pitcher.

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      2. yes!! i’ve been saying that the clock should start in 2018. it takes time to build a good contending team.

        a good core is shaping up and the farm is now capable of bringing reinforcements on a year-to-year basis. The Phils should plug the holes via FA and theycan start this offseason and made the big splash next offseason.

        Otani sweepstakes is still murky. But there are still some good options in the SP market (Darvish, Lynn, Cobb) and it will also help further stabilize the pen if Klentak can sign a reliable (not a stop gap) pen arm (Davis, Clippard, Shaw, McGee, Watson, etc).

        Mike Minor intrigues me as a pen or rotation arm. He pitched well this year in KC and has $10MM mutual option with a $1.25MM buyout.

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        1. Darvish would be my top target. I’m on record saying I would go after Arrieta as well, because a.) they’ve got the money, and b.) a winner in 2018 is much more appealing to Machado and the other big time free agents in that class. I’d prefer to fill in the rotation with money rather than prospects.

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        2. I know it’s spilt milk, but, man, how nice – and affordable – would Charlie Morton have looked in the rotation for 2018 and 2019? You gotta know how to scout your own players.

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    2. That’s the first time ever that a team did that . The Phillies can’t lose 100 but they can make the playoffs next yr.

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  23. I enjoy watching the Phillies and last night was a great win but those 2 starting pitchers should be fined for how much time they took between pitches or the umpire needs to say something.

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  24. Well it looks like the Phillies are on target for the #3 pick as I predicted last week. We just need the White Sox to win one more game and for us to lose the series this weekend.

    Lets Go Mets
    Lets Go Mets

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    1. Yikes the Mets have gone completely in the tank I think. With Collins basically out of it and a bunch of guys there not really looking to play for anything it could be tough.

      I know the Sox and that young group really love Renteria and they are playing hard for him down the stretch.

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      1. DMAR…Angels today and three vs Indians…tough road these last four games.
        Maybe they will win 2 or 3 of them.
        Sunday Tito could rest his starters.

        Sunday…last day of season …all games start at the same time….only day all season.

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          1. That may be the ticket to seal the third spot……but then again Ricardo could throw a gem vs the Mets who are probably booking their tee off times for Tuesday morning or flight home.

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        2. I love that they do that 🙂 enjoy your weekend fella’s I’m off tomorrow and I pretty much unplug when I leave work.

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  25. Saw this factoid on another site:
    Rhys’ HRs vs these pitchers:
    Dan Straily…..Vance Worley…..Brian Ellington…..Ty Blach
    Kyle Hendricks…..Jose Quintana……Travis Wood
    Edwin Jackson……Dustin McGowan……Justin Nicolino
    Koji Uehara…..Kyle Crick……Kyle McGrath……Oliver Perez
    Craig Stammen.

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  26. BA has released Top 50 College Players For The 2018 Draft http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/college-top-50-mlb-draft-prospects-2018/#I1sVSgYviJZpuqdA.97

    Also D1 Baseball released it’s Top 100 Overall Prospects For The 2018 Draft this week https://d1baseball.com/premium/2018-draft-top-100-prospects/
    Here’s their Top 20:
    1 Ethan Hankins RHP Cumming, GA Vanderbilt commit
    2 Ryan Rolison LHP Ole Miss
    3 Logan Gilbert RHP Stetson
    4 Brady Singer RHP Florida
    5 Casey Mize RHP Auburn
    6 Jackson Kowar RHP Florida
    7 Shane McClanahan LHP South Florida
    8 Nander De Sedas SS Montverde, FL Florida State commit
    9 Kumar Rocker RHP Watkinsville, GA Vanderbilt commit
    10 Nolan Gorman 3B Glendale, AZ Arizona commit
    11 Nick Madrigal SS Oregon State
    12 Griffin Conine OF Duke
    13 Matthew Liberatore LHP Peoria, AZ Arizona commit
    14 Brice Turang SS Corona, CA LSU commit
    15 Will Banfield C Lawrenceville, GA Vanderbilt commit
    16 Tim Cate LHP UConn
    17 Austin Bergner RHP North Carolina
    18 Jarred Kelenic OF Waukesha, WI Louisville commit
    19 Jeremy Eierman SS Missouri State
    20 Luke Bartnicki LHP Marietta, GA

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    1. Lots of pitchers.
      Phillies are still in a good position
      Now will Klentak and the crew go HS.
      I would think neither the Giants nor the Tigers wlil go HS that high, for a pitcher…..Tigers went HS last year with RHP Manning…Giants HS with an OFer in Ramos…which is a different set of circumstances.

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      1. Romus … Funny you mention Rolison. I put together a mock draft yesterday, and I have the Phillies picking him. He is a draft eligible soph because his 21st birthday lands within one month of the end of the draft. He was the top pitcher in the Cape Cod League this summer … 92-95 MPH FB and a plus breaking ball. He gets high marks for his command of both of those pitches. The only thing with Rolison is … he won’t come cheap. He has negotiating leverage because he’ll have two years of eligibility left.

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        1. Well he has only pitched the one season at the D1 level…..and did get rocked early on then came around…and needs to get better control….but he does show promise.
          And of all the lefties …he is probably near the top.

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    3. Wow they have really soured on Beer. I know his defense is questionable and he hasn’t swung the wood all that well but still out of the top 20….

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      1. I still like to see it play out in the spring.
        He pops 20 HRs with a high slash, and it all ramps up again.
        If he falls below ten, I will be totally surprised.
        His only drawback is he is limited to the two positions.
        Have not seen anything tangible with liabilities in regards to defense or even athletic ability.

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    4. No Beer in their top 20? (And he’s only #17 in BAs.)
      And I noticed SS Brice Turang isn’t even listed on BAs top 50??
      But anyway, as far as we’re concerned at this point, it’s obviously the arms we need early on.

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  27. Phils won’t draft lower than 1.5, so they will get a Pitcher, I think almost for sure. I have heard of the Top 6 and Kumar Rocker, but know nothing about McLanahan

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    1. McClanahan is red shirt soph. He missed his frosh season recovering from TJ. He’s another LHP with a “lightning quick” arm. “Bat missing” FB up to 95. Shows feel for a mid 80’s CU. Another kid who probably won’t come at a discount because he’ll have two years of eligibility left.

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    1. Lots of good information.
      Interesting…JoJo Romero has the ability that Joe Jordan could have sent him to pitch at LHV at the end of the season.

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    2. Jordan said Jhailyn Ortiz has the highest ceiling in the system.
      That’s exciting. Compares him to Rhys in how he’s developing his approach as a “hitter with power,” instead of being a power hitter.
      MLB debut – 2020!

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      1. I have them both (Ortiz #6, Romero # 7) in the first 10 of my Top 50 list I posted in the Prospect Pool Thread.

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        1. It’s funny you mentioned it, I was thinking about rankings and heard the podcast and also concluded that Romero and Ortiz were top 10 prospects.

          Here’s how I have our top 12 set up

          1. Kingery (again, may not be as talented as Crawford, but he’s a catalyst player – just wait and see).
          2. Crawford
          3. Sixto (probably has the highest ceiling in the organization, but breaking pitches need work and K rates are a bit below where I’d expect – but he’s still an A or A- prospect).
          4. Haseley – really a pretty decent debut. I expect the power to spike with an offseason of full strength workouts and knowledge of professional ball.
          5. Kilome – he was overshadowed by some other good performances, but he really did have a good year. Needs to miss more bats.
          6. Ortiz – potentially dominant corner outfield power hitter with hit tool and plate discipline and surprising athleticism.
          7. Romero – you could flip him with Kilome in these rankings and I’d be fine with that.
          8. Medina – just based on stats and reports.
          9. Alfaro – I’m not that much of a believer unless he can improve his strike zone judgment. Once the league adjusts, I think they are going to abuse him (at least at first). But he could have a good career as a power hitting back-up catcher.
          10. Eshelman – way underrated. I expect him to be a solid MLB pitcher over time. Similar in many ways to Kyle Hendricks with better command but stuff that is not as deceptive. I also expect him to continue to improve – he can throw any pitch precisely where he wants.
          11. Randolph – actually had a pretty decent year as a 20 year-old in the FSL. Needs to cut down on the strikeouts and continue to control the strike zone – but he’s a solid hitting talent
          12. Moniak – I don’t think he’ll stay at this level – he’ll either jump up into the top 10 or start falling and if it’s the latter, it won’t be pretty.
          13. Dominguez – I’m a huge fan. If he can get healthy and stay healthy, his ceiling is very high; perhaps higher than Kilome’s.
          14. Quinn – always injured, still talented, still relatively young. On talent alone he’s a top 5, but he’s the most oddly injury prone player I’ve ever seen in terms of persistent random injuries. Until I see otherwise, I have to conclude that his body is just not built for this level of physical stress. Poor guy. It’s not his fault.
          15. Howard – I think he’s going to be a fine pitcher. In terms of ceiling, think John Lackey at his peak – a nice 2/3. If he continues to progress, could be a top 10 by mid-season next year.

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  29. I know he is responsible for the development of these guys and has to be positive, but it was still great to hear his enthusiasm for the talent that is coming. He is still high on Mickey Mo.

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    1. He truly sounds very realistic in the high potential of so many prospects.
      Not sure have ever seen this system loaded with so much talent….outside third basemen.

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  30. Well Romus, that becomes, along with the TOR guy, the target for John Middleton’s FA extravaganza. If they add a middle of the rotation SP this year, an Alex Cobb, for instance, and then after next season are lucky enough to get Machado and a top SP, that is a Playoff team. Of course, assuming good health and even conservative progression from our young guys.

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    1. It’s funny you mentioned it, I was thinking about rankings and heard the podcast and also concluded that Romero and Ortiz were top 10 prospects.

      Here’s how I have our top 12 set up

      1. Kingery (again, may not be as talented as Crawford, but he’s a catalyst player – just wait and see).
      2. Crawford
      3. Sixto (probably has the highest ceiling in the organization, but breaking pitches need work and K rates are a bit below where I’d expect – but he’s still an A or A- prospect).
      4. Haseley – really a pretty decent debut. I expect the power to spike with an offseason of full strength workouts and knowledge of professional ball.
      5. Kilome – he was overshadowed by some other good performances, but he really did have a good year. Needs to miss more bats.
      6. Ortiz – potentially dominant corner outfield power hitter with hit tool and plate discipline and surprising athleticism.
      7. Romero – you could flip him with Kilome in these rankings and I’d be fine with that.

      MORE TO FOLLOW

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    2. 8. Medina – just based on stats and reports.
      9. Alfaro – I’m not that much of a believer unless he can improve his strike zone judgment. Once the league adjusts, I think they are going to abuse him (at least at first). But he could have a good career as a power hitting back-up catcher.
      10. Eshelman – way underrated. I expect him to be a solid MLB pitcher over time. Similar in many ways to Kyle Hendricks with better command but stuff that is not as deceptive. I also expect him to continue to improve – he can throw any pitch precisely where he wants.
      11. Randolph – actually had a pretty decent year as a 20 year-old in the FSL. Needs to cut down on the strikeouts and continue to control the strike zone – but he’s a solid hitting talent
      12. Moniak – I don’t think he’ll stay at this level – he’ll either jump up into the top 10 or start falling and if it’s the latter, it won’t be pretty.
      13. Dominguez – I’m a huge fan. If he can get healthy and stay healthy, his ceiling is very high; perhaps higher than Kilome’s.
      14. Quinn – always injured, still talented, still relatively young. On talent alone he’s a top 5, but he’s the most oddly injury prone player I’ve ever seen in terms of persistent random injuries. Until I see otherwise, I have to conclude that his body is just not built for this level of physical stress. Poor guy. It’s not his fault.
      15. Howard – I think he’s going to be a fine pitcher. In terms of ceiling, think John Lackey at his peak – a nice 2/3. If he continues to progress, could be a top 10 by mid-season next year.

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      1. I like this list. I’d flip Moniak and Alfaro, and my top 3 goes Crawford/Sanchez/Kingery, but I agree with everything else.

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        1. Thanks! Alfaro and Moniak are both a little hard to rate and if you’d flip them – yeah, I could see that.

          As for Crawford/Sanchez/Kingery – they are our top three prospects and are bunched closely together now. Any arrangement of those three is perfectly defensible. I’ve just got a soft spot for Kingery – I believe in him as a future cornerstone of the organization.

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  32. Now down to the last three games:
    Chi White Sox ….66 93—-.415
    Phila Phillies…… 64 95—-.403
    Det Tigers………. 63 96—.396
    SF Giants……….. 62 97— .390
    …Sunday could be the deciding game between second or third pick.

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    1. I’m still predicting the third pick, so if it’s the second, I’d be thrilled. In any event, I can live with the third pick – perfectly fine by me.

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        1. Though just saw where the Giants play three at home…vs the Padres…and the Giants want to avoid the 100 loss mark, though the Pads have dominated them this year winning 11 of 16…but according to Hinkie we own the tie-breaker with the Giants….so who knows could be better come 7PM on Sunday…for both the Phillies and Birds.

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          1. We actually own the tie-breaker with the Giants, Tigers, and White Sox, Do not own the tie-breaker with the Reds. Three games to go and the Phillies can still end up with any of the top 5 picks. One more Phillies loss clinches a top 3 pick. Even if the Phillies sweep the Mets, they still finish in front of Chicago and Cincinnati if those teams win one game this weekend.

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  33. catch, I was all aboard the 1.1 train for most of the season. Hoskins really got me excited for the team, plus how Nola upped his game and the way Williams has shown progress and the way that Nola rebounded, and really, what I see has a lot of ceiling made it impossible for me to root for them to lose. 1.3 is perfectly fine, and will get them a good SP prospect and plenty of $ to spend.

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    1. Exactly. At some point, it’s more important to let the young talent play and develop than it is to artificially delay these guys so the team does poorly and improves their draft prospects. Actually, their year is similar to the Sixers last year – there was simply too much residual talent to permit the team to entirely tank for a full season.

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      1. My view on this is that if a good FA becomes available they should nab that player, or even multiple players, this year. I say that because I think the team is not going to finish in the bottom next year and, if it adds a little pitching talent, it has a chance to compete for the WC.

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        1. Look at the twins….100 losses last season to playoffs this season.
          Anything is possible.
          Royals did something like that 4/ 5 years ago also, then went to back to back WS appearances eventually winning..

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        2. The point is that if they obtain Free Agents this year, they won’t lose their first round draft pick but if they sign FAs next year, I think they will.

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            1. It’s funny. You’d think, as a lawyer, I’d enjoy picking through this stuff to figure out the rules. But that’s all I do all day anyway, so the last thing I want to do is more “law work” when it relates to baseball – so I avoid it like the plague.

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            3. It’s broken down into two categories: revenue sharing payers, and revenue sharing payees. The Phillies are revenue sharing payees. For all revenue sharing payees … if you sign a QO FA to a contract, you forfeit your second pick in the draft (for the Phillies that would be their second round pick) and lose 500 thousand dollars of J2 money.. BTW … (and this won’t affect the Phillies) if you’re a revenue sharing payee and you are over the luxury tax, signing a QO FA will cost you your second and fifth draft pick and 1 million dollars of J2 money.

              I doubt the Phillies are going to be signing a QO FA this winter.

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            5. Just realized I stated that incorrectly. Phillies are not a revenue sharing payee. They are payers. In any event, Revenue sharing payers forfeit their second draft pick and 500 thousand dollars of J2 money if they sign a QO FA.

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  34. Mackanin is out for nest year, extended his contract and made him an Assistant to the GM. I am surprised, not that he isn’t coming back, but in the timing of it. I really thought Klentak was going to demand coaching changes and Mac may refuse and resign. Not sure what to make of this.

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      1. Gonzalez does have a house in Phillies’ territory, but why do you think he would be a good Phillies coach? Or is it that you just like what Wathan is doing where he is?

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        2. Like guys who previously failed for whatever reason..they seem to not to make the same mistakes ..check out all the early fialed managers and then their later success, something to it….and Fredi is a nice guy, every player liked playing for him, and has plenty of managerial experience.

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      2. I usually am in your camp on almost every discussion, but i never liked Fredi. I figure there wll be quite the turnover on the coaching staff as well.

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        1. Fredi got a raw deal in Miami, especially from the owner Loria…called Fredi a ‘colossal failure’, if Loria said that, then it sold me on Fredi….Atlanta not sure what happened thee.

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    1. What about an Indian Chief? Cesar Geronimo? 🙂
      Look, any manager that puts Freddy in the two-hole all year…..come on man!
      I am glad he did it now……Phillies get a great pick in June, but if Middleton wants an analytical manager of some degree….Freddy would not be in the two-hole…more like 7th or 8th.
      How hard was it to see that.
      Knapp had only 200 PAs….but his 15% walk rate and high OBP would have done well there in the 50 games he started in.
      But thanks to Mack for the high pick.

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    2. Nah I’m a better Gm , I just hope they hire somebody who’s can use a bp right or pull a pitcher that’s getting bomb.

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  36. It appears the GM thinks the lineup is good enough to step up next year, so much that it is time to bring in the manager that will grow with this team.

    In my mind that is absolutely Dusty Wathan, he has made this crop of prospects better from AA to AAA, & will continue to do so in the majors.

    Would love to see the team draft a college pitcher at the top, ala Nola of 2014 & pack a heavy rotation in 2019 with TBD, Nola, Sixto, & Kilome.

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  37. I’ve seen Matt Harvey over the years and I can’t believe I’m watching the same guy tonight. His body language is terrible. It looks like he doesn’t want to be out there and he’s just playing out the string. His velocity is slightly lower (93-95) but his control has completely vanished. He has no command with any of his pitches. He makes Nick Pivetta look like Greg Maddux, it’s that bad. He’s missing by a foot on a bunch of his pitches. Sure, the Mets will still give him his last arbitration year, but he looks lost out there.

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  38. Crawford . . . lets not kid ourselves, unlike every other guy we’ve brought up (Hoskins, Williams, Alfaro) Crawford has looked terrible (32% K rate, hitting well you can see and that power he showed . . . ), and if you don’t agree you are kidding yourself. Sure he’s played good D at 3B however he’s not our future 3B and if his offense is anything like he’s showed, i’d rather have Galvis at SS. Not a popular view but has always been mine. Short sample size I know.

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    1. You’re right. It’s not popular. He’s going to hit and he’s going to get on base – I’m not worried about it. And his glove and reactions in the field are even better than I thought they would be.

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      1. I’m also right that he’s looked terrible outside of a position that he won’t be playing. Can’t praise the guys who come up and do well and not talk about the guys who aren’t.

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        1. I don’t understand this comment. His fielding has been excellent – so that’s not accurate. His hitting has been mediocre but he’s shown great plate discipline. He’s 22 and making his major league debut. Even playing “meh” Baseball Reference has him at a .8 WAR thus far. Let me translate that for you. J.P. Crawford at his worst, playing out of position and just getting used to the majors is at least as good as a mid-career Freddy Galvis. This is a no brainer – he stays and plays.

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            1. Oh stop it guys. If you read what I said, I said outside of his defense, meaning he’s played good D but as far as that is concerned . . What does that matter? He’s playing out of position. Just bc you play a good defensive 3B (there’s no future for his bat at 3B) doesn’t mean you can handle SS in the same way (in no way am I saying he can’t handle SS). If all Crawford is going to be able to do is walk and play decent D (I don’t see him hitting with a better average than even Galvis) I’d rather have Galvis at SS and hitting in the 8 hole. Use Crawford as part of a trade to get the TOR pitcher you need. As I’ve said before, I think he will end up being just below MLB average. Nothing more, nothing less. Trade him before its realized by others (and you guys on here). Ps yes he’s young as well and it’s been 20 games. I know this.

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            2. But of he is as flawed as you say…then what GM wold want him at that position as added value to a package for a TOR.
              There are a limited amount of teams out there looking for shortstops, that also have pitchers that have the potential for TOR status, since getting current TOR straight up is highly unlikely in any package without including Nola..

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            3. Oh my opinion is def in the minority, maybe under 10% of the fan base and other who follow baseball. So I think other GMs would def be interested.

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            5. I guess this debate could go and on.
              normally over an entire minor league career…a player will normally stabilize close to his overall stats once they are in the majors for a number of years.
              There are exceptions but overall they seem to indicate that.
              In their case….will Freddy’s for sure…it has come close to furition,, JPC’s is a wait and see.
              JPC in approx 2400 PAS in the minors:
              .270 /.367/ .391
              Freddy in approx 2600 PAs in the minors:
              .246 /.291/ .334

              ……..I see more upside with JPC down the road then what Freddy has produced to date.

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            6. JPC is getting his first taste of big league pitching … he’ll need an adjustment period at the plate. It’s a bit rash to evaluate his performance there right now and just hand the job to another player.

              Ultimately, with a young team, it should come down to upside. Crawford could be a star, or a first division regular, or just a guy. We really won’t know until we see his career pan out. But we know what Freddy Galvis is: a defensive shortstop with a little bit of pop, but not much of a plan at the plate.

              The question becomes: If the Phils replace Galvis with Crawford at SS, will they regret it?

              They’ll certainly miss Galvis’ defense, but I don’t expect it would be a huge step down. JPC covers a lot of ground out there himself. And he has the potential to be a great defender over there.

              Galvis has more pop than Crawford now, but JPC will likely add power as well as he develops. And even if he never develops power, his on-base abilities would play just as valuable (arguably moreso) a role than Freddy’s hitting has.

              I like Freddy Galvis, but I don’t think JP Crawford is going to make anyone regret the decision of moving on.

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            7. Mike – I hear you with it being a short sample size which is why I added that, this has just been my take on Crawford for some time now. As far as Galvis goes, imho I just feel like we are better off with him in the 8th hole at SS and moving Crawford for pitching. I just don’t see the player that apparently everyone else does.

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            8. @Eric … fair enough. If he were the main part of a package that brought a No. 1 or high-end No. 2 starter into the fold, I might be on board. But Crawford wouldn’t bring that alone, unfortunately. And given the option of selling low on a shortstop with all the tools to be a first division regular or giving him the opportunity to blossom in red pinstripes, I’m taking the latter.

              One of the great things about the WFC Phils was that they got so much production from their middle infielders. Crawford gives you a shot at that kind of production. And if he doesn’t? Worst case scenario, you’ve got an above average defender at SS who hits in the 8-hole … which is kind of what Galvis would be right now.

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        2. FWIW…a bried comparison at a SSS:
          Freddy @ age22 season….200PAs:
          .226/ .254/ .363 .

          JPC@ age22 season..78PAs
          .206/ .346 /.302

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  40. I was listening to Jody McDonald talking to Ryan Lawrence while I was in my car last night. Jody proposed a Odubel Herrera for Kyle Schwarber trade. Lawrence thought the Cubs would take a pass on that deal. I thought the proposal had merit. I know Schwarber had a bad season and is a defensive liability, but he would bring another high OBP batter to the Phillies lineup. The thought of a Rhys Hoskins/ Kyle Schwarber, righty/lefty, 3/4 spots in the lineup would be exciting.

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    1. Schwarber plays LF…..and he becomes a defensive liability, but a very good mid lineup hitter. And the left handed power bat they need right now.
      Cubs may do it…they may want more than Almora or what Heywood gives them from CF.
      The OF would look like Scwarber, Altherr and Williams from left to right,
      Then there is Quinn and Cozens at some point next season
      Then again….you may be able to get the LHB power from Cozens ilo trading for Schwarber

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    2. I cant see why we take a Schwarber for Odubel. First guys with Schwarber type scare me. second he didn’t adjust to the league. But I understand to ruin this team this is the kind of trade we see. Odubel for a hurt player. Cesar for international money. where are people getting this from. If you want to move Odubel and Cesar talk pitching. top of the line those two with some prospect and the money we have might and I say might temp someone.

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      1. rocco……’ruin this team’….they are already in last place, without a starting pitcher…. without any pedigree other than Aaron Nola….how much ruining can be done at this point! Look around the league….almost every team has players like Doobie, Cesar, Freddy, TJ et al…….pitching is what you want.

        As for Schwarber in Jody Mac’s proposal……IMHO, Dylan Cozens could do the same as he did in 2017 with a better dWAR. But Schwarber has proven in the past he can do it as he did in 2015 and in the WS last year…perhaps his knee will never be the same as when it was 100% healthy and it affected him this year, and he may have taken a turn for the worse this year.

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        1. Romus … That’s a surprisingly short-sighted comment. The Phillies were buried in last place when the rooks started coming up. They’re playing about .500 ball since, with no help from the rotation whatsoever aside from Nola. Rocco is right: They’ve built something here, and run the risk of screwing it up by trading the wrong players.

          Schwarber was a top prospect when he was a catcher. Once he moved off the plate, his value plummeted IMO. Trading Odubel, a top-ten CF with a great long-term contract, for a modern Pete Incaviglia would be a strange move.

          I really don’t understand why everybody is so gung-ho to trade Doobie. You lump him in with Freddy and TJ, which is insane. He’s streaky, yes, and he’s a bit of a head case (although it’s interesting that the Phils had an even bigger head case playing CF 25 years ago and everybody loved him), but he should be viewed as a cornerstone of a lineup that can throw legit hitters out 1-8 on a nightly basis.

          Trade Hernandez? Sure, they’ve got a legit prospect knocking on the door. Otherwise, I say don’t mess with the recipe.

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          1. Mike, with all due respect, Dykstra was a knucklehead OFF the field. He didn’t jeopardize the club’s chances of winning with poor discretion during the game. He had a clue about his approach at the plate. Doobie is a good fit on a club that already has its core pieces in place. He’s not a building block IMO.

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            1. I would argue that his positive contributions far outweigh the occasional base running gaffe or hustle issue.

              Whether he’s a good fit or a building block, the point is that the team is better off having him as its CF.

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          2. MikeH……why I would trade Doobie…..number one round draft picks will be starting there in CF by 2019 or 2020…Haseley, Moniak and then there is Quinn somewhere in the mix.
            Maybe not fair, but number one picks get the benefit of all doubts.. that is the way it works anymore.
            The Phillies, especially Klentak and John A., will not prevent them from starting…their reputations are on the line
            If they were not in the picture…then Doobie is a keeper IMO.

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            1. OK. Let’s say we’re looking to deal a CF for a young, controllable pitcher (and please, not Kyle Schwarber). Why not give up the prospect? Why does it have to be the cost-controlled first-division regular?

              If a team blows you away with an offer for Herrera, then sure, you take it and move Williams to CF. (That likely weakens OF defense and creates a hole at one of the corners, but I digress). But it feels like it’s more of a “let’s get what we can get” for a guy who has performed very well.

              He’s unorthodox, and has little pedigree, but you can’t deny the production Herrera has given year after year. Dealing him for anything short of an immediate contributor in the top half of the rotation would be a mistake.

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            2. I agree on Herrera’s production.
              And it would have to be in the ‘Adam Eaton-Nats’ return scenario that would interest me if i were the GM…nothing less.
              And for Schwarber…that was Jody Mac’s proposal…I would not do it.
              At this point he can be obtained for far less than Doobie if that is what a team wanted to do..

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            3. Looking at it closer….actually…it would have to be more for Doobie than what the White Sox got in return for Eaton.
              Doobie…is younger with a better contract.

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            4. I think it’s unrealistic to think that a return for Odubel would exceed one for Eaton. He is younger and has a better contract, but he’s never had the type of years Eaton has put together. Eaton had both an over 5 WAR and an over 6 WAR season – levels that Odubel has not yet approached and may never approach. A similar package would be A-Ok for me.

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        2. Here’s a reminder of what can happen when a team decides to trade its productive, 26-year-old CF:

          Talk about a day that changed the course of a franchise: Dykstra, McDowell, Mulholland, Cook and Hayes for Steve Bedrosian and a declining Juan Samuel.

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          1. It’s funny you mentioned the Mets because I think the Phillies and Mets could again be good trade partners. Trade some young pitching for some young hitting.

            I’d trade a guy like Cozens or Quinn and a mid-level, young reliever (Ramos or Arano) for Steven Matz. It might not work out but it would be a good gamble for both teams.

            I’d also be interested in Gsellman.

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            1. IMO, Quinn, ilo of Cozens, and a reliever, for Matz would be my suggestion……both Quinn and Matz are injury prone players with high upside when healthy.

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  41. Giants have clinched the worst record in MLB. No 1:1 for Phillies. But, you know what? I don’t care. As a fan, I’d rather they win games than tank.

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    1. Giants are one game worse than the Tigers with one game to go, but Detroit owns the tie breaker over San Fran. So … the 1-1 pick won’t be settled until tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Phillies are locked into either the 1-2 or 1-3 pick. If the Tigers win tomorrow and the Phillies lose, the Phillies pick 1-2.

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  42. Romus, normally I agree with you. But I do not trade Doobie, not yet at least. Of course for a huge return is always the caveat. Haseley has to be a star in Reading by the end of ‘18, or Quinn has to be healthy fir the entire year, or Mickey Mo has to just explde next year for me to even trade Doobie next off season. No one has shown to be even close in ability to Doobie yet. And neither Williams nor Altherr can play CF anywhere close to Doobie.

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    1. matt13….IMO, it would have to be some substantial return….a MLB ready prospect TOR pitcher to start in the return…if the Cardinals offered Alex Reyes or the Prates Mitch Keller, as the main piece in the their package, I would have to give it some careful consideration

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  44. 2018 Draft Order

    1-1 … Tigers
    1-2 … Giants
    1-3 … Phillies
    1-4 … White Sox
    1-5 … Reds
    1-6 … Mets

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