30 thoughts on “Report Card, Outfield–GCL, WIlliamsprt and Lakewood”

1. (nods approval)

   Sounds about right.

   I had Pelletier ranked around 12 on my top 20 list, so I’m glad to see that somebody agrees with me. Whether or not he gets jumped to Lakewood remains to be seen. He’s still certainly young enough that moving a level at a time wouldn’t be a big deal.

   Haseley and Moniak will obviously generate a lot of discussion, and I think that their respective B and D grades are spot on. Haseley was “good but not great” and reportedly hit into some bad luck (does anyone have his BABIP handy? Just curious.) Moniak was pretty bad, and I’m not buying the excuses – young for the league, long season, etc. Others are in the same boat he is and doing better. Had he been a later pick, we’d likely be looking at Cord Sandberg 2.0.

   One last note: I’m pretty bullish on Ortiz, but Clearwater might be a bit aggressive given how young he is. Still, the Phils have moved some of their Latino players pretty quickly (Sixto, Tocci, Galvis) before letting them simmer for a bit at full-season levels.

   I’m really enjoying these report cards. Great work, Gregg!

   Jeff

   1. Jeff….321 @ Williamsport and 302 @LKW

      1. Thanks Romus. It took me a minute to figure out what your post meant at first until I remembered my question. 😀

         So, small sample size aside, his BABIP is pretty average. Nothing to worry about. I still think Haseley starts at Clearwater with Moniaik repeating at Lakewood. Optimally both of them get June promotions.

         Jeff

         1. I like to think Haseley will follow a Benintendi/Conforto progression model….and be in Philly by Aug/Sept next season or for sure in 2019. His college metrics come very close to mirroring Benintendi’s at Arkansas and, except for the power tool, also Conforto’s from the PAC12. What they had going for them over Haseley, was they never spent time as pitchers in college which probably slowed Haseley’s hitting development to some degree.

            1. Either of those two look like reasonable comps. I’d be really surprised to see Haseley in 2018, unless he rakes all year. My expectation is that he finishes up the year with a cup of coffee at LHV.

            2. I cannot see Haseley in Philly before 2019 and I think he still has a lot to prove before even that becomes a reality.

            3. Big difference in first pro season performance between Benintendi and Haseley. massive difference in K rate (17.6% vs 10.5%) and far less power (.110 vs .230 ISO) for Haseley. I don’t think your expectations of being in MLB next year are right. Also, the Phils don’t need him in the majors. I expect Haseley to spend the majority of next year at Clearwater. Maybe play the last 30 games in Reading. I think he is more on the JP Crawford path than the Benintendi path.

               1. Yeah…saw those peripherals.
                  But like i said, pitching in college did nothing to help his cause in the hitting department. Whereas both Benintendi and Conforto had the luxury of full time hitting in their college careers.
                  i expect he will come out in spring , after the FIL and off-season work in hitting, and rake and make the promo faster than expected.
                  But can see your point that there really is no need for him to be in Philly until possibly 2019 or after.

               2. We are in agreement on expectations that he will rake in 2018. fast track has as much to do with need as it does performance. similar scenario with scotty jetpax and rhys this year, although i still can’t understand why TJ blocked Rhys.

               3. I am always slow to draw conclusions on a player who, after a full year of college ball, first plays pro ball after the draft. Those first year numbers don’t always do a good job predicting how well a player will do after that first adjustment year where, among other things, the player is suddenly making a transition to a wood bat, which isn’t easy. Hoskins was kind of mediocre in his few months out and Cody Asche tanked and then dominated the next year at Clearwater (please no dissertations about how Cody Asche never made it – I get it – I am talking about guys who looked bad then excelled the next year). I am especially reluctant to draw conclusions on Haseley because he has not had a full off season yet to train just for hitting – which will involve more strength training than a guy who is trying to maintain flexibility for a starting pitching routine. He also jumped a level and looked to gain some momentum at the end. I’m pretty bullish on Haseley, which is not something I can say about Moniak.

            4. I don’t see Haseley making it to the Phillies next September – even if he’s one of the best hitters in the minors. The Phillies just don’t advance players that quickly as a general rule.

               1. Yeah…they do take their time,
                  Though I do not see them being overly slow like many complain that they are.
                  Plus, next season at some point their wishes are probably to try to work Cozens, who will probably have by then over 600PAs at the AAA level, in the Philly OF to see what they got, especially if injuries occur and unless he or someone is moved before then.

2. Kind of a minor point on a minor prospect, but that 7% K rate for Muzziotti is really impressive. for an 18 year old. I discount Markham for being 23 in the GCL.

3. Lakewood looks like it will be crowded in the OF. I want to see Moniak, Ortiz, Pelletier, and Stephen for sure.
   Alastre probably turns back into a pumpkin, while Matos had some front office hype last year, leaving at least 6 guys I want in Lakewood.

   Gregg, I think I learn the absolute most about the entire system with these Report Cards. What a tremendous quick summary and prediction for next year’s rosters which is a favorite hobby of mine.

4. When I see Mickey’s performance this year, I don’t get upset with him. He is a kid who is figuring out pro ball. He seems like a hard worker and I have said that I am bullish on his ability to be a very productive pro baseball player. I comp him to Odubel, which is a compliment because 4 war center fielders don’t grow on trees.

   That said, the reaction that I have when I see Mickey’s performance is that I am losing confidence in Johnny Almaraz. Here was JA’s scouting report:

   “I think you’ll have a Gold Glove center fielder who will hit in the middle of the lineup and be a leader on the team. He was No. 1 on my list — he was the best player in the country,” Almaraz said. “There was no projection with Mickey Moniak. He possesses the ability that a lot of college players don’t possess. He can run. He can throw. He can hit. His abilities are superior, and that’s why we took him.”

   I remember reading this at the time an two things stood out to me.
   1. “There was no projection with Mickey Moniak.” When I read that, my eyes bulged out of my head. This type of scouting report is indicative of a kid who is ready to hit immediately. My expectation was a hitter who would have a K rate and walk rate that were nearly identical. I knew power wasn’t there, but the ability to make contact and take walks should certainly be there. The stats speak for themselves. He had an awful K rate for a non-power hitter and a mediocre walk rate. The ratio was nearly 4:1. Add in the really bad struggles with LHP and off speed pitching and I just scratch my head. I mean, you couldn’t be more off when you say this is a player that needs no projection. Mickey needs to repeat Lakewood next year. That is a player who needs a lot of development.

   2. Calling him a Gold Glove center fielder. I think Mickey will be a very good center fielder, and I haven’t watched him enough to see his true range. But Mickey does not posses a great arm. I saw him catch a fly ball, not too deep, with a runner on third, so it was a tag play. He timed it up, did his crow hop and fired home…it was a one hop to the pitchers mound and was cut off. That is not the arm of a Gold Glover. That is like a 50 arm. And I don’t see how one can be a gold glove defender with a 50 arm.

   My concern is that JA threw some huge superlatives on Mickey that are not even close to being realistic. If you overstate your assessment that badly on 1:1, it really gives me pause on his abilities to lead a scouting department.

   1. That’s a good point – thanks for the research.

      I know a lot folks have concerns about high school pitchers, but I tend to have even more concerns about high school hitters. I don’t care what you see on a high school ball field in terms of how fast a kid is and how hard he can hit a ball, I think it’s almost impossible to tell how good that kid’s plate discipline will be against advanced pitching and when he will be able to hit elite breaking pitches. When I think about all of the failure of Phillies draft picks, time and again, they selected great athletes (Jeff Jackson, Anthony Hewitt, etc. . . ) who just couldn’t hit advanced pro pitching. And, again, this is fine if you’re picking a guy in the 3rd round or so, but at 1/1 – damn, it’s so risky, especially where the kid is skinny and the power projection is unclear. When you have a college hitter you pretty much know whether the guy has decent plate discipline and can hit a good curve or slider. There’s a LOT less guesswork and projection.

      Continuing on your point, JA’s philosophy is to get a good hitter and he will grow into that power. But when that guy really isn’t that good of a hitter, things can unravel really quickly.

      By the way, for the record, Nola, Hoskins and Crawford were part of Marti’s last hurrah and are not players from this administration. I ripped Ruben for bad drafting and a lot of other things (and I still think he’s awful), but they nailed these three picks and I have to give them credit for that.

      1. Let’s be very clear on this point…every single player on the Phillies roster that gets you excited for next year are on the roster due to Ruben.
         – Odubel was Ruben’s rule 5 pick.
         – Nola was Ruben’s pick
         – The kids: Rhys, Aaron Altherr and JP Crawford were Ruben’s draft picks
         – Nick Williams and Alfaro were Ruben’s trades
         – Scott Kingery, our 2nd baseman of the future was drafted under Amaro
         – Maikel Franco was signed under Amaro

         Ruben Amaro built this current version of the team that everyone is excited about. That should give a lot of people pause and think about how we assess GMs during a rebuild.

         1. I’ve decided that any discussion on Ruben is a pointless, endless rabbit hole of blame and credit that goes nowhere. I’m sorry I started it again.

         2. I like to see the Phillies bring back Ruben…..but only on the field, as the bench coach after Larry steps down.

   2. What I find unusual this year is some of the scouting reports – eyes only – of both national and Phillies scouts do not seem to match what I see watching the player. For instance, Rhys Hoskins ? how could so many people be so wrong and miss his extraordinary hitting ability ? This player has the best pitch recognition and patience of any player I saw all year – why was this not the hallmark of his talent. To date, I am very impressed with Nick William’s speed, his hair on fire style of play, and his lightening fast bat. All we heard for the last several years was he was an under achiever, slow, and a slacker who never ever walked. JP – now a failed fielder, and mediocre hitter who should be traded for a TOR pitcher ? not only does he have Hoskins like patience at the plate, but he has some pop in that bat too given his extra base hits and the kid can run too – ’nuff said about his fielding – he is more than proficient !

      My point, so far, we have read scouting reports that almost to a player have understated their strengths and abilities. Maybe that’s a way of protecting one’s scouting reputation ? Whatever, it is not realistic as of now. That said, next year all of the above may be suffering sophomore slumps – but I wouldn’t bet on it.

      1. I remember seeing scouting reports on Rhys that he had slow bat speed. Didn’t think he would get around on MLB fastballs. Which is insane since he is has a .301 batting average with a .771 slugging percentage against fastballs.

         I mean, they weren’t off on Rhys…they were in a different universe.

         1. Yes, I remember that too. How on earth could they say he had slow bat speed? He has one of the fastest, quickest, shortest strokes I’ve ever seen for a power hitter and impeccable strike zone judgment. It boggles the mind, but, perhaps Rhys has just improved. Whatever it is, it could not be further from the truth. There are few superlatives adequate to explain how outstanding he has been and is likely to be.

            As for J.P. he is going to put up 3 and 4 WAR seasons almost by accident. If he really reaches his potential he’s going to be challenging J-Roll for the title of best Phillies SS – he is that good folks (not that that should be any surprise).

            1. And lets not forget how JPC’s defense regressed this year at LHV….now in the majors he is at third, 2nd and shortstop…and to me doing very well defensively.
               Even Scott Kingery said last night that it is amazing that JPC can go to third and do so well.

      2. RU,

         I agree. It’s only been the few years that I’ve lived in Southwest Florida and discovered Future Phillies that I have focused on prospects, and i’ve learned a tremendous amount from the knowledgable posters on this site.

         But one thing I’m learning is that, as a fan, I sometimes have as good, or better, a read on some ballplayers than the so-called experts. And maybe that’s because I see these prospects repeatedly in person, and maybe it’s because I’m not a professional and, therefore, don’t automatically fall into the dogma of, say, “he’s just a right-handed power bat and they’re a dime a dozen.”

         I’ve loved Rhys Hoskins ever since he landed at Clearwater and, obviously, have been glad to see him develop into a Major Leaguer, as I expected.

         Another shot at some of the scouts and experts. Early on, there were several reports that Hoskins’ bat was too slow and he would be shown up by advanced pitching. Well, in the Futures Games, he had the fastest bat of any of the elite prospects. Who the heck were those scouts who dismissed him as a slow bat?

         1. BTW, I obviously meant Phuture Phillies, not Future. Darn auto-correct (auto-wrong)!

5. 9 OFs in Lakewood next year? I don’t think some of these guys will be around next year. Ortiz will definitely be starting in Lakewood with Moniak. Beyond that, I’m not sure. Pelletier will likely just go to Wsport. Haseley will go to Cwater and he could move up to Reading mid year if he hits well. I’m not sure if any of the other OFs down there matter all that much.

6. On this list, I know he’s far away, but it’s going to be hard to keep Ortiz out of the top 10. He may have the highest ceiling of all of our hitting prospects.

7. I see five OFs to start the year in Lakewood. Of course a lot depends on FIL and spring training performance.
   (1) Moniak
   (2) Ortiz
   (3) Pelletier
   (4) Stephen
   (5) some combination of Matos, Luis and Gurrola

   I see Alastre and Haseley in Clearwater. The Clearwater Of situation doesn’t look that great. Pujols, Hernandez and Duran will have to repeat there. I think they will look to move Moniak to Clearwater pretty quickly if the situation warrants it.

   1. If Lakewood Outfield looks crowded and Clearwater doesn’t, then I wonder if (as Gregg posited) Ortiz would start there. I’d certainly prefer him going to CLW than Moniak, if for no other reason than a demotion back to Lakewood wouldn’t be as damaging to him as if might be to Moniak.

      1. I think the article college guys drafted this year (Markham, Mayer, Haseley and Gurola) will go to Clearwater

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