Open Discussion: Week of August 27th

The Phillies were on their way to another horrendous week, losing 3 of 4 to Marlins.  But, as so often happens in the baseball world, we learned why you must play the games.  The Phillies won 2 of 3 games and salvaged the week with a 3-4 record.  And, although the Cubs outscored the Phillies 21-15 on the strength of a 17-2 rout in the middle game of the set, the Phillies easily handled the Cubs in 7-1 and 6-3 victories.   They have a 48-81 record and a .372 PCT.  

The Phillies host the Braves for three games then are off on an 11-game road trip that starts with 4 games in Miami.  They continue with series in New York and Washington.  The Phillies play 26 of the next 33 games against East Division opponents.  The exceptions are a 3-game series against the A’s and a 4-game series against the Dodgers, both at CBP.  They finish the season with 16 of 19 games at CBP.

The Phillies are 30.0 games out of first place in the East Division, with an elimination number of four.  They are 8.5 games behind the fourth place Mets. They are 22.50 games behind the Rockies in the Wild Card race, with an elimination number of eleven.

Now, the race we might have a chance to win –

Bottom 10 Teams W L PCT GB L10 STRK PCT 8/20 Net Gain/Loss
Philadelphia 48 81 0.372 5-5 W1 0.369
San Francisco 52 80 0.394 2.5 4-6 L3 0.397 0.5
Chi White Sox 52 77 0.403 4.0 6-4 W1 0.388 -1.5
Cincinnati 55 76 0.420 6.0 5-5 L2 0.424 0.5
Detroit 56 73 0.434 8.0 3-7 L1 0.439 0.5
NY Mets 57 73 0.438 8.5 4-6 L1 0.443 0.5
San Diego 57 73 0.438 8.5 3-7 L3 0.444 0.5
Atlanta 57 71 0.445 9.5 4-6 L2 0.451 0.5
Oakland 58 72 0.446 9.5 5-5 W3 0.435 -1.5
Toronto 61 69 0.469 12.5 3-7 L1 0.476 0.5

In spite of the 2 wins over the Cubs, the Phillies remain 2.5 games ahead of their closest competitors.  They retain their notoriety as the worst team in baseball for another week.

Rhys the Beast

  • .297/.408/.828/1.236  in his first 18 games, 76 plate appearances, 64 AB
  • 19 H, 12 XBH, 1 double, 11 HR, 24 RBI (4 more than Nava who has over 100 more AB)
  • 11 BB, 14.5 BB%, 13 K, 17.1 K%, 1 HBP
  • Tied with Freddy for 6th on the team with 11 HR
  • Quickest to 11 HR to start career in MLB history, 18 games.  (According to Elias Sports Bureau, he reached the 11 HR in 17 fewer at-bats than any player in history.)
  • Fastest player to reach 10 home runs in major league history, 17 games
  • Tied Carlos Delgado (1993-94) and Trevor Story (2016) for the most homers through a player’s first 15 games (8)
  • Is one of just three players to hit eight homers within his first 50 career at-bats. (According to Elias Sports Bureau, Hoskins hit his eighth in his 49th at-bat. He joins Trey Mancini (eight homers in 47 at-bats), and Carlos Delgado (eight homers in 48 at-bats)
  • Tied Ryan Howard for most HR in a month by a Phillies rookie, 10 in September 2005
  • And, he started a triple play.

Another New Prospect

I have spotted another new pitcher at the Complex.  His name is Carlos De La Cruz.  He was signed recently and showed up in Clearwater last week.  I thought he might be the De La Cruz from the DSL White team (Jonas). But he is a recent signee.  He may have been from NY, but he is clearly LA, he doesn’t speak English.  He’s a teenager. Seventeen, I think. There has been no announcement from the team.  I am still trying to find out more.  For now, picture a Franklyn Kilome clone.  De La Cruz is tall (6’6 , 6’7 ish) with a thin frame, like Kilome when he came stateside.

Key dates remaining:

  • August 31st, 11:59 PM EST – Waiver Trade Deadline
  • December 10-14th – Winter Meetings in Orlando
  • December 14th – Rule 5 Draft

Last Week’s Transactions: 

  • 8/25 – Phillies activated LF Daniel Nava
  • 8/25 – Phillies optioned RHP Jake Thompson to Lehigh Valley
  • 8/25 – RHP Tommy Bergjans assigned to Reading from Lehigh Valley
  • 8/25 – RHP Henderson Alvarez assigned to Lehigh Valley IronPigs
  • 8/25 – Reading placed LHP Austin Davis on the 7-Day DL retroactive to August 24, 2017. Left elbow strain
  • 8/24 – Phillies optioned RHP Ricardo Pinto to Lehigh Valley
  • 8/24 – Phillies recalled RHP Jake Thompson from Lehigh Valley
  • 8/24 – Reading activated 3B Mitch Walding from the 7-Day DL
  • 8/24 – RHP Mauricio Llovera assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport
  • 8/23 – Phillies optioned RHP Nick Pivetta to Lehigh Valley
  • 8/23 – Phillies optioned CF Cameron Perkins to Lehigh Valley
  • 8/23 – Phillies recalled RHP Drew Anderson from Lehigh Valley
  • 8/23 – Reading sent RHP Alberto Tirado on a rehab assignment to GCL Phillies
  • 8/22 – Phillies signed free agent RHP Henderson Alvarez to a minor league contract
  • 8/22 – Phillies placed RHP Zach Eflin on the 10-Day DL. Right shoulder strain
  • 8/22 – Phillies placed RHP Vince Velasquez on the 60-Day DL. Right middle finger
  • 8/22 – Phillies recalled Nick Pivetta from Lehigh Valley
  • 8/22 – Phillies recalled Yacksel Rios from Lehigh Valley
  • 8/22 – Reading sent 3B Mitch Walding on a rehab assignment to GCL Phillies
  • 8/22 – Lehigh Valley activated SS Matt Williams from the temp. inactive list
  • 8/22 – RHP Drew Anderson assigned to Lehigh Valley from Reading
  • The organization’s rosters are up to date.
  • The organization’s injury list is as up to date as I can make it.
  • The organization’s Rule 5 eligibility list is as accurate as I can make it based on the

Here’s the open discussion thread for Phillies’ talk and other topics.


247 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of August 27th

  1. I enjoy watching all the younger players. Im very pleased with Williams. He seems capable of pulling himself out of mini funks. You can see the raw skills of Alfaro. Hopefully he can harness them.
    the Hardest thing to watch is the pitching and its lack of growth. I do think McClure has to go. The lack of improvement in secondary pitches especially changeups is on him. That’s his job. To improve the young pitchers and he has failed.

    1. I’m trying to think of pitchers who have improved at mlb level this year. Garcia? Morgan? Maybe Nola? Everyone else took a step back

    2. You should listen to the Felske Files, you literally just summarized their last podcast.

  2. I have a couple of question on Moniak. first did they move him up a level too high just because he was a high pick.? I Wonder if he would have been better at gcl to start or Williamsport then see how he does and move him from there. Second in your opinion if the phillies passed on him how high would you think he would have gone. I Never saw these kid play so I really don’t know how good he is, or will become not being a numbers only guy.

    1. rocco…..the metrics might say yes on the higher promotion for Moniak, but the team officials say he is fine, which I suppose is natural for them to say. I agree with the team officials.
      Ideally , in hindsight, might have been better if they let him stay at Lakewood until mid-June, then down to short season Williamsport for a awhile. But the pitching in the NYPL does have a quite a bit of college arms with more experience and older at that, so it may have been a moot point.
      I think the Brewers would have taken him at number 5.

    2. Considering your questions Rocco a guy we really haven’t looked at as a comp for young Mickey is (and this just came to me) Nick Williams

      You may or may not buy that but I went back and took a look at Dubs early numbers and here’s what he looked like

      In Rookie ball at age 18 he got in 48 games and had 224 plate appearances. He hit 313 had a 375 OBP over an 823 OPS. At age 19 in the Sally he played 95 games saw 404 PAs and hit 293/337 over an 879 OPS…

      It’s hard to find a full season in Nick’s career where he really struggle. You might say last season his age 22 season in AAA was bad but in hind sight he was just 22 in AAA.

  3. Hinkie…………with the burst of Hoskins on the scene, and Williams and Alfaro seemingly getting off to warm to hot starts….you may be torn.
    Rooting for them to succeed, which in turn seem to have turned the offense around and will perhaps produce more wins……subsequently getting passed by the Giants, or White Sox or Reds or all three for the top spot in the draft.
    What a strange predicament.

    1. Romus … it looks like a four team race: Phillies, Giants, White Sox, and Reds. Thankfully, those other three teams have shown some life lately. I would love to see the Phillies end up with the 1-1 pick (reverse magic number down to 29), but I still watch and root for them every night (or day). I especially root for the young guys because they are the future, but I also hope guys like Cesar Hernandez and Tommy Joseph play well to increase trade interest. So … to summarize, I watch them religiously, root for them, but don’t get upset when they lose. It has become a habit in my house where my wife asks me, “they’re losing again?”. She answers before I can, “I know. It’s ok. At least they’ll get a better draft pick.”

    2. I should also mention while the 2018 draft is being hyped as a really good class, there is no one “guy” who is head and shoulders better than all others. The 2019 draft may be a different story, Bobby Witt Jr. may be “the guy” in that class. A lot of you love Brady Singer. I like him, don’t love him. I’m not convinced he’ll go 1-1. Remember, AJ Puk and Alex Faedo (both Florida Gator pitchers) were considered the 1-1 favorites the past two years. Puk (as Tommy Gunn knows) went 1-6, Faedo went 1-18. Right now, I’d consider Singer, Jeremy Eierman (really like him), HSLHP Matt Liberatore, and HS 3B-man Nolan Gorman (who I was originally targeting as a 2-1 pick, but now know he’ll never make it there after killing it on this summer’s all star game circuit). Other college pitchers who could end up as 1-1 possibilities are Logan Gilbert, Jackson Kowar, and Ryan Rolison. HS SS Nander De Sadas could also end up being a possibility for the 1-1 pick. A lot can happen over the next 9 months. The 2018 draft is going to be very deep. Owning the 1-1 pick would give the Phillies an almost 13.4 million dollar war chest (including the 5% overage) to capitalize on this highly ranked draft class.

      1. I’ve heard HS SS Brice Turang’s name pop up a bunch in 1-1 conversation along with HS RHP Kumar Rocker and another high school arm I can’t quite remember.

        1. Justin D … the other name you’re thinking of is Ethan Hankins. I like him, but don’t believe the Phillies will go out on that limb and be the first team in MLB history to draft a HS RHP at 1-1.

          1. What about the guy from Wisconsin (last name starts with a W)–I believe read somewhere that he’s a true five tool player a la one Mike Trout?

  4. It looks like the Phillies line-up will be good next year with all the talent coming on. The pitching will remain a problem. The Braves had a similar problem in the late 80s when they traded for Maddux and Smoltz, developed Glavine and began their dynasty. It may take trades to do it for the Phils’ pitching. They now have enough depth to make those trades or sign the high quality pitchers that the manager wants.

    1. Maybe Nola can be their Glavine with a Fulmer as a Smoltz/Maddux and then try to acquire/sign the other. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go after a cost controlled guy like Fulmer if the Tigers are indeed going to move him.

      Maybe see if they’d take a guy like VV/Eickhoff back. Eickhoff, MM, and Cozens for Fulmer? Too much/not enough?

      1. Here we go again. Fulmer is only 24 and he has a 2.9 WAR. His strikeout rate declined to 6.3 so not sure what’s going on there. But all things being considered, he’s pretty good. I don’t think the Tigers would laugh at the offer, but they would hang up the phone pretty quick. Think Sixto, Eshelman, and Cozens and perhaps they will listen.

        1. I understand the falling of MM but he’s still currently looked at as a top prospect with only a little over a year of pro-level play. Sixto would be a guy I wouldn’t want to include but would upgrade to include Kilome. Cozens was a weak offer that I couldn’t help, lol.

          They would have the ammo to make a move for him, but it’d be hard to give up guys like Kingery, Crawford, and obviously Hoskins and Williams since those are all positions the Phillies need to fill. I guess Kingery could be dealt (and would make a more attractive offer) if the Phillies can believe Hernandez is for real. It’s a bit of me not wanting to gut the farm at the same time but mainly becuase their top guys are about a year or so, if not less, from being up on the bigs. MM is years away so he’s a little easier to part with.

          And to your point below, I get the comparison but the Phillies aren’t looking to move Nola. I know the Tigers don’t have to move Fulmer either but they’ve supposedly made him available. Kilome, Esh, Cozens, and a filler?

          1. The Tigers are trading a young, cost controlled pitcher and they’re not getting back any top 100 prospects? C’mon man.

      2. As a comparison, Nola is 24 with 3.5 WAR. Then ask yourself if somebody offered Eick, MM, Cozens for Nola, would you a) laugh your butt off or b) tell them to call back later with a serious offer or c) both a and b.

  5. After ripping Pivetta the last few weeks, I have to give him some credit. ToJo did him no favors in the first inning and Pivetta was about to implode as he usually does, but he wiggled himself out of the first inning. His fastball control got a little better, his slider was working pretty well, he grinded it out until the 5th inning. He was about to crash and burn when he got saved by that triple play. He walked 4 hitters though, but he kept the Phillies in the game.

    1. Guru…..when thinking about RHPs and their development from rookies to eventual aces, if one is lucky…sometimes it takes a few years.
      If you look at this list…..some of the best struggled out of the gate for a year or two, some more than others, especially the ones who were not college drafted RHPs.
      ….Arrieta…Archer…..Cole……Gray….Greinke….Hernandez..Cueto……Kluber…..Stroman……Scherzer….Carassco……Harvey…..Tyson Ross….Wainwright….Carpenter

      1. I agree, but the kicker here is that if Pivetta is improving (still an if), he’s doing it at the ML level and not in the minors. If Pivetta gets it all together in year 3-4, that’s at least 2 years of cheap value that the Phillies got nothing out of. Also, Pivetta was never a highly rated prospect. Most of the guys that you mentioned were at least in the top 100.

    2. Pivetta is a prime example of why you need to watch games to really see what is going on with a young player. The lessons from watching him are: (1) you need to be really patient with young pitchers – they often take a step and a half backward before taking two or three steps forward; (2) you have to throw your FB with command and get your breaking pitches over; and (3) velocity (especially with righties) matters A LOT! It is starting to look to me that Pivetta might end up being quite a bit better than Velasquez, who has more movement, but less control and actually doesn’t consistently throw as hard.

      1. Pivetta definitely has a better fastball, but I think VV has better control and secondary. Unfortunately, they both have below average control and secondary. That’s like saying one is bad and the other is less bad.

        1. I think both have some decent breaking pitches, they just need to control them better. When he’s on, Pivetta’s curve can be lethal.

      2. Catch when you watch Pivetta as a fan you see a kid with a ton of potential. I could care less about his numbers right now. I see a great arm. does it develop we will see. But based on what I seen I take him over nola and the rest of the guys. I love this kids stuff

        1. Roccom – you and I are pretty close to being on the same page. I still take Nola well ahead of him, but I really do like Pivetta’s potential. When you watch him pitch you can just see what he might become and it’s exciting. I also think he’s a pretty composed kid – he doesn’t get all down and pouty when it doesn’t go well – he has a positive frame of mind.

          1. For RHPs….that mid-90s velo would appear to be a prerequisite for a high rotation standing….and of course some form of command of their secondary pitches.
            Though, beginning to see the total evolution of the reliever that now comes in at 96-98, which will over time make that starter’s 95-97 common-place and more hittable.
            I like to think a rotation will need at least one type of pitcher in the Hendricks/Porcello or even Phillies’ own Leiter, mold (velo in high80s/low90s) to off set an opponent in a series. Pitchers who specialize in 2Smrs and command.
            With hitters seeing a barrage of pitchers in that stratosphere of velocity, they will just adjust.
            I am seeing something going on with king of velo, Aroldis Chapman, lately.

      3. Pivetta a #4 no better his command & control hurt him. He really needs a 3rd pitch that’s avg . He’s on Pace for over 40 hr allowed and over 4 walks per /9 for 200 ings. He needs major improve in the next 2 yrs . He wouldn’t be in the majors on most teams . Another yr in AAA or extended spring training might help. He may might be a really good bp piece , as Guru said he fought to 5 ings . I know he’s young he’s looks tired to me, he might be on an ing count.

  6. If Hoskins reaches 20 HRs, he is a serious ROY candidate. Unfortunately, he won’t surpass Bellinger this year.

    1. If Hoskins is even top 5, it would be a huge accomplishment. But Bellinger (with his 4 WAR) should win it easily.

      1. Well, in just 3 weeks, I see 2-3 games that the Phillies might not have won without Hoskins. So, he’s a 2-3 WAR player? Just kidding, I know it’s not that easy.

    2. Way too few games played. He’ll most likely play less games than Gary Sanchez did last season and he didn’t win ROY.

      1. Not true. Willie McCovey was ROY with same number of games if Hoskins plays every day until the end of the season.

        1. Difference it that Hoskins has legit competition for ROY. Bellinger easily has the award locked-up…

  7. With Pete mentioning an upgrade for the starting pitching, what free agents do you think we might try and sign?

    1. Late last season, Mackanin stated that he needed an upgrade to hitting, the Phillies went out and

      1.) traded for Howie Kendrick (11/11 for Ruf and Sweeney);
      2.) signed FA Gomez, Nava, and Florimon (12/12 to minor league contracts w/invite to spring training);
      3.) claimed and lost Richie Shaffer (12/14 and 12/23 thru waivers);
      4.) re-signed FA Andres Blanco (12/14);
      5.) signed Christian Marrero (to a minor league contract);
      6.) signed Bryan Holaday (12/20 to a minor league contract w/invite to spring training);
      7.) signed FA Michael Saunders (1/19);
      8.) signed Ryan Hanigan (1/25 to a minor league contract w/invite to spring training); and
      9.) signed FA Chris Coghlan (2/4).

      So, what kind of response from the front office can we really expect if that was their hitting upgrade for Mackanin?

      1. Your assuming that the FO actually cares about what Mackanin’s wants are.

        I think this year is a little different because this off-season they actually start moving toward respectability by bringing in some legit FA pitching talent and not just replaceable parts..

      2. It was a lame effort to be sure, but they were just treading water – these were not expected to be high profile or impact acquisitions.

  8. My challenge to Klentak this off season is to deal from the depth and spend to acquire at least one, preferably two TOR arms.

    The big league expendables? (Obligatory qualifier – this of course is NOT to suggest these aren’t good players):

    Tommy Joseph
    Maikel Franco
    Cesar Hernandez
    Odubel Herrera*
    Cameron Rupp
    Freddy Galvis
    Vince Velasquez (if he’s healthy)
    Hector Neris

    (*especially if Stanton and/or Yelich are targets)

    1b Rhys Hoskins (R)
    2b Scott Kingery (R)
    3b Mike Moustakas (L)
    ss JP Crawford (L)
    LF Nick Williams
    CF Christian Yelich
    RF Giancarlo Stanton
    C Jorge Alfaro/Andrew Knapp

    Starting rotation:
    Yu Darvish
    Aaron Nola
    Preferably a lefty via trade
    Jerad Eickhoff
    Nick Pivetta

    Bullpen? Your guess is as good as mine but there are several improving in- house candidates including Garcia, Morgan and Ramos.

    Klentak’s mission should be to have the pitching staff catch up to these young bats. That begins with 86ing Bob McClure.

    1. ….oh, Altherr also figures very much in the mix but could be moved if the Miami deal becomes reality.

    2. I too want to see a lot of what you have proposed. It is definetly a big offseaon for the FO. Hoskins just turned up the heat, and in doing so may have made Crawford and Kingery’s spot on next year’s team
      That much more likely.

      I don’t know what would be left after a Stanton trade due to his current “resurgence” and his massive contract. With Hoskins in the lineup, and the expected production of Kingery and Crawford, I’d give up a lot for Stanton. Trout is a pipe dream
      Before then,
      Harper is most likely a long shot, but i do think Machado is possible. Stanton,Hoskins,
      Machado, Crawford, and Kingery would provide a lot of fun nights for baseball fans

      A few of the right moves and this team in back in WC contention, possibly better.

    3. I feel compelled to squash any talk of the Phillies getting Stanton. Are the Phillies interested…absolutely but he is not waiving his no trade clause to come to Philadelphia.

      Secondly top tier FA’s are going to be tough to get here at market value deals and it really makes no sense for this team to go above market value on Pitchers who have injury history.

      Someone like Moustakas though fits perfectly. I love his lefty power in our ball park with Hoskins in the middle of the line-up this should happen as soon as it can.

    4. Not Moose look at Todd Frazier or Suarez from Cincy with Senzel on his way it there not going to Yelich , but Gio is the FA lefty that might come over.AJ Happ too . Bet you Eslemann or Tarveras make the club out of camp.

  9. A number of articles on Baseball Prospectus today about Phillies (subscription needed).
    Positive reviews of Daniel Brito and Francisco Morales who both show considerable promise. Reviewer points out that Brito and Moniac look like they are dead on their feet, completely worn out and exhausted from the season. He goes on to state that – this is often typical of young kids playing this many games at this level in the heat of the South Atlantic league. Both of their seasons have declined from pure exhaustion since June etc. Nevertheless, he is very positive on Brito who is the one he scouted. Morales is impressive in many ways as well he reports.

    Also a review of Hoskins’ last 5 homers and his exploits. Sorry I can’t capture and forward here.

  10. My moves

    1. Sign Alex Cobb to be a #3 starter, 3 years @ $12 M

    2. Dump Cameron Rupp (trade for ?), sign free agent Wellington Castro to share catching with Alfaro. Two years @ $8 M.

    3. Start Knapp in ’18 at Lehigh Valley but consider dumping Joseph and make the switch-hitting Knapp a back-up to Hoskins and 3d catcher.

    4. Sign free agent OFer Carlos Gomez as a 4th OFer and reminder to Odubel that there is a major league-ready replacement if he backslides.

    5.Audition Henderson Alvarez for a starting job this September and sign him for ’18 if he passes. He could be a worthwhile #4 starter.

    6. Trade in the off-season Hernandez and a prospect to the Dodgers for P Scott Kazmir, 2B/3B/1B/LF/RF Logan Forsythe and 2 prospects. Free up the logjam at 2B by giving Kingery a shot to start ’18 there. Put Franco on notice that Forsythe can become the 3Bman if Franco doesn’t get back on track.

    7. Depending on how Galvis and Crawford do at the beginning of next season, prepare to trade Galvis should an injury or poor performance on some other team create a market for Galvis that doesn’t exist currently. By year end ’18, Kingery and Crawford could man the middle infield.

    8. Trade 3 prospects not requiring Rule 5 protection to the Yankees for 3 guys they won’t protect: P Giovanny Gallegos, IF Thairo Estrada and OF Billy McKinney. Put these 3 on the Phils 40-man roster and avoid picking in the Rule 5 draft altogether this year.

    9, Sign Wade Davis as the closer on a 3 year deal at market price.

    10. Sign another right handed arm for the pen: 1 of Tommy Hunter, Steve Cishek or Sergio Romo.

    That represents about a 40 % turnover of personnel on the 25 man roster, which seems about right.

    1. My thoughts.

      1. Sign Alex Cobb to be a #3 starter, 3 years @ $12 M – NOT A BAD MOVE IF YOU CAN GET HIM THAT CHEAP, WHICH I HIGHLY DOUBT.

      2. Dump Cameron Rupp (trade for ?), sign free agent Wellington Castro to share catching with Alfaro. Two years @ $8 M. – YOU DON’T NEED WELLINGTON CASTILLO, BUT I AGREE ABOUT MOVING RUPP UNLESS ALFARO IS TRADED.

      3. Start Knapp in ’18 at Lehigh Valley but consider dumping Joseph and make the switch-hitting Knapp a back-up to Hoskins and 3d catcher. – I THINK KNAPP WILL END UP BEING THE BEST OF THE BUNCH HERE – I GIVE KNAPP EVERY OPPORTUNITY TO DEVELOP AND PLAY

      4. Sign free agent OFer Carlos Gomez as a 4th OFer and reminder to Odubel that there is a major league-ready replacement if he backslides. – THEY DON’T HAVE ENOUGH OUTFIELD SPOTS FOR AVAILABLE PLAYERS AS IT IS. I’D PASS ON THIS UNLESS YOU ARE MOVING A BUNCH OF OUTFIELDERS IN A TRADE.

      5.Audition Henderson Alvarez for a starting job this September and sign him for ’18 if he passes. He could be a worthwhile #4 starter. – IF HE PERFORMS WELL, THE PHILLIES WILL RE-SIGN HIM, BUT I’D TEMPER YOUR EXPECTATIONS.

      6. Trade in the off-season Hernandez and a prospect to the Dodgers for P Scott Kazmir, 2B/3B/1B/LF/RF Logan Forsythe and 2 prospects. Free up the logjam at 2B by giving Kingery a shot to start ’18 there. Put Franco on notice that Forsythe can become the 3Bman if Franco doesn’t get back on track. I’M NOT SEEING THIS MOVE – IT SOUNDS LIKE A BETTER DEAL FOR THE DODGERS UNLESS YOU GET STUD PROSPECTS, SO I’LL PASS.

      7. Depending on how Galvis and Crawford do at the beginning of next season, prepare to trade Galvis should an injury or poor performance on some other team create a market for Galvis that doesn’t exist currently. By year end ’18, Kingery and Crawford could man the middle infield. THE PHILLIES ARE NOT GOING TO MAXIMIZE GALVIS’ VALUE, WHICH THEY SHOULD DO. THEY WILL PROBABLY RIDE HIM UNTIL NEXT SUMMER AND EITHER KEEP HIM OR GET LITTLE FOR HIM BEFORE FA’GENCY.

      8. Trade 3 prospects not requiring Rule 5 protection to the Yankees for 3 guys they won’t protect: P Giovanny Gallegos, IF Thairo Estrada and OF Billy McKinney. Put these 3 on the Phils 40-man roster and avoid picking in the Rule 5 draft altogether this year. NOT SURE YANKEES ARE THE BEST TRADE PARTNER – WE USUALLY GET FLEECED WHEN WE DO DEALS WITH THE YANKEES.

      9, Sign Wade Davis as the closer on a 3 year deal at market price. DEPENDS IF YOU THINK YOU CAN CONTEND FOR A WC SPOT NEXT YEAR. IF YOU DO, IT’S NOT A HORRIBLE MOVE.

      10. Sign another right handed arm for the pen: 1 of Tommy Hunter, Steve Cishek or Sergio Romo. I’D SAY JUST RE-SIGN PAT NESHEK FOR A YEAR.

      That represents about a 40 % turnover of personnel on the 25 man roster, which seems about right.

    2. PT. 6 Absurd – Kazmir is washed up….he is worn out and never worth much no matter what the LA Federal Reserve paid him. He is always injured. Why not pay Sloan Kettering ? Pt 7 – reactive – why not wait until Freddy is a free agent, which by the way he is at the end of 2018 ? I think you have a ways to go on alot of these.

      1. Don’t see any real contribution to respond to. You won’t like Pt. 7 when it happens, but it will.

        Kazmir is washed up like Arrieta, Hill, J.C. Ramirez. They were washed up until they weren’t. People here told me Verlander was washed up. The prospects I had in mind in this move with the Dodgers are P Mitchell White and OF Starling Heredia.

  11. Time for Klentak to shine this offseason. If he knocks it out of the past, this team could see a massive increase in the win total, so large it could shut the haters up on With the projected success of Crawford and Kingery added to this team, and a substantial trade, this team should be in the hunt for a WC berth. Sign a FA starter, and the race is looking good. A Stanton trade, if still possible, would really ignite the offense.

    I have a feeling this potential trade is going to heat up, what do you guys/gals thinks gets it done? I’m having a hard time gauging his trade value due to his recent success and contract value. He may very well be off limits again.

    Id send: Moniak, Herrera, Kilome, A reliever, and another semi fringe prospect. His salary is an anchor, and his health hx is not the best. I’m thinking even this maybe too much, since the trade is fueled by the need for salary relief. What do you guys think?

    1. Stanton’s season is going to make it almost impossible for the Marlins new ownership group to move him this off-season, regardless of the contract. I expect they will be buying this off-season, not looking to trade Stanton and Yelich…

      1. I know it seems counter intuitive 3UP but they really don’t have a choice if you listen to some of the interviews that Samson has given. They are bleeding money big time and can in no way allocate 30% of their payroll to one guy (Stanton) which is essentially what is going to happen after this season.

        1. That may be what he’s saying but they also just spent over a billion to acquire a franchise that’s bleeding money? Not buying it…

          A month ago I think they would have traded Stanton in a heartbeat and they did pass him through waivers after the trade deadline. But he’s going to hit 60 hrs and probably win an MVP award this season for young team making a playoff run. It would be a PR disaster to move him.

          But even if they are still looking to trade him, he’s not waving the no trade clause to come to the Phillies..

    2. Stanton with his ‘no trade’ won’t go anywhere he doesn’t want to go. A team piling up chips on the table won’t change that. So, in Stanton perhaps wanting to leave Miami for a winning team and leaving a team with a small salary commitment for one committing salary to winning might just see Philly as close to #29 in his preferred list of destinations. (But dreaming never hurt anyone but a sleeping bus driver.)

      1. I know that Stanton coming to Philadelphia is unlikely but he could set Home Run records at CBP very easily. The Phillies are one of the few teams that can afford his salary.

    3. Nothing.

      If I’m the new ownership group, I’m no going to trade my best player/marquee draw after taking over.

      If I’m the Phillies, I hesitate to take over a contract that runs another 10-11 years (18:$25M, 19:$26M, 20:$26M, 21:$29M, 22:$29M, 23:$32M, 24:$32M, 25:$32M, 26:$29M, 27:$25M, 28:$25M club option/$10M buyout) and has an opt out clause after his third season (2020) with my team after I give up a lot of my own prospects.

      If I’m Stanton, I make full use of my full no-trade protection, and all indications are that Philadelphia is not a location he is likely to consider.

      But seriously, Herrera, one of our relievers, 2 prospects, and another fringe prospect? I think if a deal were possible, it would take much more. Think Hoskins, Sanchez, and Kingery just to get them to answer the phone.

      1. IMO, the Dodgers will be the top team for Stanton’s services if he goes on the market. They have the resources to entice the Marlins, and Stanton is a southern California guy that sees a winning team right away competing for the WS.
        And they can start with offerings of Bellinger and Puig and then throw in the pitchers in their system, though Urias looks now to be a goner for elite status now with his injury. But they have Beuhler and Alvarez to add in his place.

      2. Gotta agree with Jim. What signal is the new ownership group sending to Marlins’ fans by trading their best/most popular player. A new ownership group is supposed to bring with it an influx of money.

      3. At this point, it all comes down to how much money the Marlins are going to eat. And make no mistake about it, they will have to eat a chunk since nobody wanted Stanton’s contract when he was on revocable waivers. I think if the Marlins ate maybe $40M, then maybe the Herrera deal might go. But if they have to eat say $100M, you better believe they want some top prospects back.

      4. If it will take Hoskins, Kingery and Sixto for them to listen, this trade will never come close to happening.
        Those three, as well as JP Crawford and Aaron Nola are players I wouldn’t even consider trading away, and I doubt the Phillies will either.

        1. I could see where they might move either Crawford or Kingery (probably Crawford) in a move like that, but I think it’s much more likely they just wouldn’t want to risk that. But this is the last I’m going to comment on a Stanton trade because it seems so silly and counterproductive. Unless and until this is a persistent rumor on legitimate sites reported by legitimate reporters, I’m not focusing on this hypothetical.

      5. See this is where I struggle, he is a MVP candidate, but his salary should and will lower the cost. If that is what it would cost, pass. I wouldn’t lose sleep either. Also, I know philly mAy not be his first choice, but he doesn’t have 29 teams in a realistic position to trade for him. He has 4. The Phillies also have a good Latin presence on their team, that should help. Again, I know it was a big topic BEFORE he went on his current MVP output, and also the emergence of Hoskins at the MLB level. I’m inclined to pick up a FA to plug in or to trade for a less expensive piece. With that said, if Stanton can be had, at a reasonable trade demand to account for the salary, I would hope the Phillies aren’t to cheap to do it in terms of prospects.

        1. ” …he doesn’t have 29 teams in a realistic position to trade for him. He has 4.”

          I think that’s nonsense. First, you need a team he would waive his no trade for. So the first tranche would be California teams — Dodgers, Giants, Padres. Teams he wants to go to can initiate a discussion to forego or buy-out his opt out following the 2020 season. You can’t establish his long term value to any team without resolving the opt out.

          Third is the issue of money and who can pay the freight for Stanton. Because until you get through the threshold issues above, you don’t even address the salary question.

          So if the Padres or Giants are in on Stanton and he would forego both his no-trade and opt out, then these teams are faced with a scramble to re-commit resources and dump contracts.

          To think the Phils are one of 4 teams that could afford Stanton is homerism and pure bunk. When the Diamondbacks signed Greinke, or the Twins extended Mauer or the Marlins extended Stanton, it shows That small/mid market teams can compete for top salaries, even if somewhat selectively. And what’s true for them is true for the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Cards, Rangers, Mariners — perhaps others.

          1. I don’t see it this way. You are making assumptions, as well as I am. Who is to say he doesn’t want to stay in the NL East, since he is used to the pitching? A lot of factors go into where he would like to play… home
            Isn’t always where everyone wants to go either.
            Small market teams would be committing suicide taking on Stanton and they know it. You used Grienke as an example. How did that workout? Not so great year one. Any team should be cautious of being on stanton’s contract,
            Especially a small market team … that would be tying a significant amount of its payroll to an injury prone player.

            I standby my “assumption” that Stanton does not have 29’other teams with a realistic chance of acquiring him. You need money, a big enough market, and prospects …. not all 29 teams have that. Philly is realistic, but depending on the ask, is rather they pass. Seems like the price jumped past the point of making sense at the deadline.

      6. Agree.

        Forget the ransom in young talent the Phillies would have to give up to acquire Stanton; who wants that much salary tied up in one guy? No thanks.

      7. Check his injury history. No team should pay this silly contract – this player is injured almost 40 % of the time. It is irrelevant if he hits 80 HR’s – that is this year. He has rarely, if ever played more than 70% of a typical campaign. Does anyone want to pay 30 MM for a player who plays no more than 70% of the time – never mind significant K stats. Everybody is looking at this year !!!!! I will take the under on his games played next year at 100 !

  12. Jim is correct. There is not a much more media savvy guy than Derek Jeter, and he will be running the show. I think Samson was already told he is gone. How are they going to face the fans, who hate Loria, if they sell off their best player?

  13. There will be a lot of upset readers here if the Phils are not, in the very least, very strongly in on Otani. I still doubt that they will be, but we will find out soon enough.

      1. This is the MLB and more likely than not Otani is going to be signed to pitch or hit. There is no such thing as a 2-way player at the MLB level in my opinion and Japanese pitchers already struggle with the 5 day rotation.

        Imagine how much that would be magnified if he’s in the LU the other 4 days. No maybe if he is in the AL they don’t DH for him and they let him hit on the days he is pitching or he opts for an NL team so he can at least hit on the nights he is pitching and maybe do the pinch hitting duties.

          1. AL teams do not have to play a DH. The pitcher can hit for themselves if the team wants them to..

    1. Contrary to what some would believe, the Phillies were not going to be the favorites to sign Otani, no matter how hard they tried.

    2. i agree that we should be seeing a serious effort. If he choses somewhere else, so be it. I’m concerned this front office is all talk and no action about spending money

      1. I have 0 concerns that Middleton is going to spend money but with regard to Otani the Phillies and every other team in the league have only so much they can give him.

        All teams with the highest amount of money to spend are going to be within a million to 2 million of one another which means Otani is likely to chose the city where he and his family feel the most comfortable.

        One would assume that would be a city with a strong Japanese culture though I do wonder is Ichiro in Miami for a reason? If Miami can give him $5.25 and say you can play with your hero does anyone other club have that much more to trump that?

  14. All you have to know is that the Dodgers, and now the Yankees have sent significant management contingents to Japan to see Otani. Enuff said. He will most likely want an AL team – to dh and pitch. He will most likely defer to the West coast – closer to Japan. But between the two Goliaths, short of giving him City Hall I would find it a stretch that the Phillies can compete. Just sayin….

    1. BA has posted the following teams penalized for this signing period and the following….max $300K bonus per player limit.
      I have to assume they cannot participate in the Otani bidding.

      2017/18…..Cubs…Dodgers…Giants…Royals…Astros…Athletics…Braves…Cardinals….Nationals…Padres…Reds…White Sox
      2018/19…Astros…Athletics….Braves….Cardinals….Nationals….Padres…Reds……..White Sox

      1. Romus – note, all of the Yankee trades lately have featured acquiring more international market cash…..hand writing is on the wall for Otani.

  15. My moves.

    I’d like to sign or trade for 2 SP and sign 2 relievers.

    I’d target a guy like Justin Verlander. I don’t know how many teams are willing to eat his entire contract. I’d be willing to do so especially if I”m not giving up any real prospects. We’d existentially be signing him to a 2 year 56m years deal.

    I’d also target veteran hitters who on are overpaid and on the last year of their deal much like Kendrick this past year for the bench. Guys like Chase Headley switch hitting 1B/3B & Brandon Moss LH 1B/OF.

    I’d like to give Franco more time but if Crawford & Kingrey are as ready as we think they are I’d be ok with sending Franco to Triple A if I can’t find value for him on the trade market. I don’t see a point of having the not so versatile Joseph the bench. I’d either keep him at Triple A if he has an option in case of a Hoskins injury or just take what I can get for him.

    Rather then trading a Galvis or Hernadez I’d like to see them take a page from Joe Madden and move our guys more around some. I’d rotate our guys by playing Kingrey occasionally at 2B & 3rd. Crawford at SS when you give Freddy a day off & 3B. Hernandez between 2B & LF. Williams between LF/RF and Altherr RF/CF. Odubell and Hoskins are locked in at CF & 1B.

    The catching situation is a bit tricky since Alfaro has to be on the team. I’d be ok with carrying 3 if the 3rd guy was a AJ Ellis type. A guy that can really help the pitchers and barely plays ever. That would mean Rupp has to go or Knapp has to back to Triple A. Alfaro still needs time at catcher but he can run & if they think he could play a handful of game in LF that’d be great too.

    Rotating all those guys should give everyone a solid amount of AB’s especially if a few injuries occur as they with out a doubt will during 162 game season.

    I’d really rather go the FA route with most of my additions to the team since we have money to spend. Quality Relievers don’t you usually cost to much in terms of years a long term reliever deal is still only about 3 years as opposed to a SP who’s long term deals can be 5 or 6. The only trades I’d like to make are maybe Joseph and other guys we don’t plan on keeping on the 40 man anyways.

    1. Verlander is 34 yrs old with a no trade contract, so you think he would approve a trade to the Phillies, the worst team in baseball, with all due respect.

  16. That leaves open, in the AL, the Yankees, always a threat whenever their is a FA, Angels, who may start spending more of Moreno’s money and Seattle, who has been in the Japanese market before, to great success. All offer Otani the opportunity to DH and Pitch, as RU stated above, and which has been his preference in every story I have read about him. I have never thought we were getting him, but I want to see a strong effort. I want to get back to the point where the owndership’s money, meaning Middleton, and his willingness, as he stated quite forcefully, to spend it, means something.

    1. matt13,,,agree.
      Though I thought the Otani venture was a pipe dream…same with the Harper FA or any Trout trades. The only one I am pretty steady own is Machado…Jim Salisbury has repeated it many times and there is some truth to the MacPhail/Machado/Lozano connection from 7 years ago. So that could be a real possibility. I am hoping they do the splash in December, will see.
      As for spending big money……there are still young top ten Latin players unsigned on the board….Salinas and Cabello of Venezuela. I would like them to spend whatever they have left or get more money via trades and sign one, I do prefer Salinas the OFer.

      1. Romus,

        I’m with you on Machado. Let the O’s have Franco, Herrera and a pitching prospect not named Sixto.

        1. I personally think that Moustakas would be a better value and a better fit as a lefty power bat to compliment to Rhys Lighting. Machado is a better overall player, certainly. But that kinda coin is better spent on even bigger fish (no pun intended).

            1. Marcus Hayes used the nickname “Big Hoss” today which I think I like a little more. My son and I discussed Rhys Lighning – and it’s not bad at all, but the name suggests that he’s a speedster which, obviously, he’s not.

            2. Rhys Lightning. I like that. Beats my nickname, Big Hoss.

              Good point about Moustakas as a lefty.

            3. In reference to Hoss Cartwright (remember Bonanza, old timers?), how about Hoss Batsright?

  17. You are correct Tim, The Rangers have dabbled in the Japanese market before and are certainly another possibility. I neglected to mention them. They were very successful with Yu Darvish.

  18. I like Freddy Galvis. He’s a good player and has led by example on a bad ball club. If anyone on the squad deserves to play 162 games for their own personal gratification and posterity, he does. BUT this organization cannot afford to pander to such requests what with Altherr and Herrera returning and Crawford arriving next week. I would be very disappointed if Pete and Matt allowed Freddy’s desire to affect the development and valuable playing time other players will need in Sept.

    1. Left to his own devices I’m pretty sure that Mackanin would essentially NEVER replace Galvis as the shortstop, which, in the long or medium run, means that someone is going to have to replace Pete.

      1. Mackanin believes Galvis is an outstanding player and has seemingly gone out of his way to talk down J.P. Crawford. Look, I like Galvis to a degree – and he’s certainly a great fielder. But, right now, Crawford projects to be a superior player and must play when he is ready to do so.

        1. I concur but I am torn. I do like loyalty and I do like Freddy. He became who most of us thought he would become watching him move through the system. A very good fielding SS that can’t hit enough. Fine perhaps if you surround him with a ton of offense.

          At the end of the day the way to reward Freddy is to trade him to a team that has that and just needs someone to sure up their defense at SS.

          Pete can play the rest of the season out by letting Freddy start games and then like in ST replace him after an AB or two with JP.

          1. Unfortunately Freddy has little value as a shortstop in a trade…and in three years he probably is a utility guy. So a team will acquire him now as a stop gap shortstop.
            His OBP is horrific.
            GMs know the score.

        2. Agreed that Crawford has to start when he’s up in September. I don’t see the FO allowing Pete to play Galvis everyday. I’d move Galvis over to 3B, at least part time, for the last month.

          1. I don’t really care how this plays out the rest of the year so long as JP gets his at bats and experience. This is more about next year and thereafter.

      2. Freddy starting 2nd game today in CF !!!

        I like it…tells me that the Phillies are all in on following the Cubs versatility tactic of getting players acclimated to multiple positions to maximize their value. Plus it allows for roster flexibility. Look for Knapp to be the 3rd catcher next season while being Rhys’ backup at 1b.

        Now if Pete would only stop slotting Freddy in the 2 hole…PLEASE!!!

        My ideal September lineup:

        Hernandez 2b
        Altherr rf
        Williams lf
        Hoskins 1b
        Herrera cf
        Alfaro c
        Galvis ss
        Crawford 3b
        Nola p

        1. Altherr…will he get much time playing in September?…..Friday is suppose to be his return date. I guess Pete will need to make a decision on how much playing time he gets.

    1. I’d be wary of giving either player too long or too big of a contract. Arrieta has been steadily losing velocity and effectiveness for three years. For all of his home runs, Moustakas has played to a 2.8 WAR this year. Much better than Franco, but I wouldn’t be rushing to give him $150 million.

      1. I think all of our off season resources need to go into the pitching staff. I’m happy to go it next yr with a team of
        Hoskins 1b
        kingery 2b
        Crawford ss
        franco 3b
        Williams LF
        Herrera cf
        Ahlter Rf
        Alfaro c

        with all trade resources, joseph, hernandez, galvis, rupp , and free agent dollars put into adding to the Starting rotation ( 2 pitchers and not at Jeremy hellickson level and 2 relief pitchers)
        I look at lively, Quinn, cozens, tocci, drew Anderson, knapp, pullen, anyone from reading AA except Kilone as trade commodities

  19. I heard Pete on WIP this morning, and he seemed to indicate that there is little to no chance Kingery comes up in September. He did, however, praise him. I think they will make sure that Freddy plays all 162 games. That may mean moving him around. As for the future, he can play for a playoff team that has the hitting to bat him 8th, and get great defensive SS play, some power, and a terrible OBP. I don’t know exactly which team that is. I think we should be prepared to have both Cesar and Freddy start next season as the SS/DP combination.

    1. I think there are a few reasons for Kingery to stay in the minors. First, he doesn’t need to be on the 40 man, so why create additional problems there. Second, since he’s in the team’s long-term future, they don’t want the Arb clock starting yet. Third, I think he could really benefit from another 150 at bats in AAA next year – he needs to work a little on his plate discipline and on driving balls against advanced pitching.

      By the way, I’m going to go on record now praising the Phillies for waiting on Rhys Hoskins. People think the team waits too long to promote prospects, but I disagree. I think they wait until they believe the player is ready not only to survive but excel and, in the long run, I think it’s worth the wait. We forget that Hoskins had a slow month or two before his last run prior to the promotion. He said that he learned some things during that lull that have benefitted him in the majors. I think they are going to be as careful about Kingery as they were about Hoskins, which means that Kingery will probably spend another month or so in the minors next year (unless he absolutely tears pitching apart in ST, which is possible, in which case he might be promoted in mid-April). The goal is not to produce rookies of the year. The goal is to produce championship teams and players.

      1. I don’t get the angst in some quarters about the timing of the Hoskins call-up. I accept that he could have been brought up a month or 2 earlier which might mean the Phils are neck and neck for 1:1 in the ’18 Rule 4 draft instead of having a solid lead.

        Kingery I see in a different light since he is blocked by a talented player. The Phils have to market CeHe actively this off-season to get back a decent return and not create a repeat of the Joseph-Hoskins impasse at 2B in mid-season next year.

        1. There’s always going to be some in the fan base who are really impatient and want everybody promoted yesterday. The Phillies have almost always erred on the side of caution when it comes to promotions. With their prospects, they want them to struggle in the minors so that they can work their way out of it. When a prospect is promoted, the Phillies want to see that the player has nothing left to prove in the minors. That’s also why you rarely see players get sent down for struggling, like Maikel Franco.

  20. So in an absolute cheapskate move the Pirates have placed Juan Nicasio on irrevocable waivers. The Phillies need quality relief arms to get them through the rest of the year. It would mean a 40-man slot but there are more than a few people I would cry over losing their 40-man slot and they would need to lose it anyway to clear room for all the minor leaguers who will need it after the season.

      1. I think there is every reason to sign Nicasio and no good reason not to. He’s earning $3.6 M and is a free agent after the season. The Phils are first in line to get him for his salary alone.

        Nicasio is the kind of guy they’ll be looking to sign in the off-season. They have guys on the 40-man who can be moved moved to the 60 day DL (Valentin, Appel) or just release (Kim). There are no relievers in line for a call-up that Nicasio would block.

        Neris and Ramos seemed to feel the effects of overwork from ’16 so another vet in the pen could prevent a repetition this time around. Demote Therrien for 2 days.

    1. I agree they should claim him, even though he’s a free agent to be, they may be able to sign him before he hits the market

      1. Just because we claim him doesn’t mean we get him. A deal would have to be made and if we weren’t willing to make a deal the Pirates can pull him back.

        Someone put a claim in on JA Happ and the Jays pulled him back from waivers. I could see us putting in that claim.

        1. “The Pirates have placed right-handed reliever Juan Nicasio on outright waivers, according to a report from Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Unlike revocable trade waivers, outright waivers cannot be rescinded — meaning that any team can simply claim Nicasio at this point.”

          From MLBTR

          1. I believe the Phillies get first crack at claiming a waived player. Why not?

            I also hope Alvarez has regained some semblance of his earlier form. He’d at least be a candidate for a #5 starter. Mark Leiter has justified a further look as well. Otherwise we’re scrambling for able bodies and arms.

  21. Eickhoff leaves with an injury in the 3rd after pitching poorly up to that point. I think 2 legitimate starters are a “must get” for Klentak this off season. Trade, FA, however. I have mentioned Darvish before, but Alex Cobb is on my list also. I am wary of Arrieta.

    1. Eickhoff is pretty much guaranteed a spot in the rotation next season. He has had past success, and we need to see if 2017 was just an aberration.

        1. Look, if he’s hurt, he’ll start the year on the DL. If he’s throwing 88, something is definitely up. You don’t go from 93 to 88 at age 27.

          1. Sadly, sometimes you do. It’s happened to Ethan Martin and a long list of others. But odds are if he can get healthy he will at least recover most of the lost velo.

    2. I agree. I’m ok with Arrieta on a shorter length deal (2-3 yrs but good luck getting that). We have to improve the starting pitching thru trade or free agency this offseason because:
      1. I don’t see real help coming from the minor league until 2019 at the earliest
      2. you aren’t going to get any of the top 2018 winter free agents to sign here if you are a 70 win team with no pitching

    3. Any word of what Eickhoff’s injury is? Hope it is not serious as his loss will really hurt our rotation.

      1. The Braves have 2 right handlers going today and Nava does not start in either game, would have to assume they are close to dealing him

      2. Some sort of nerve irritation in his right hand. Not sure how similar it is to VV’s injury. With only 30 games left (6 starts), I think Eick has pitched his last game this season.

  22. I saw an article on ESPN that shocked me. It said that Albert Pujols was the worst player in baseball. So I took a look, and sure enough at age 37, he’s posting a ridiculous -1.9 WAR. Now when Pujols signed that 10 year deal at age 32, I was guessing that the Angels would get 5 good years, 2 average years, and 3 bad ones. So first 5 years, he’s averaged close to 3 WAR. Not great, but above average. So the first 5 years of the deal, the Angels pretty much got what they paid for. Now year 6, he’s posting a horrendous -1.9 WAR. His next 4 years, he’s owed $114M. You get the point right?

    That’s the main reason why I’m worried in trading for Stanton. Sure, his contract ends at age 37, but he has an injury history, his defense (and range) is already average, and he strikes out a lot. You could easily see Stanton start declining fast at age 32. He needs to keep on hitting HRs to keep his value.

    1. Guru…valid points. I would pass on Stanton as well, only if it is going to take 3/4 premier prospects and a player like Herrera. And I do not see the Marlins selling low on him, even with that contract. His age28 season is next year and he should produce for the next 4/5 years, if he can stay healthy.But after 34 , just not sure a team will get their money’s worth from him.

      1. I need to say that with those type of long term deals, the team will never get their money’s worth overall. You pretty much have to know that the last 2-3 years of that deal are going to be bad. That’s what I thought when Jayson Werth signed that 7 deal with the Nats, and it played out exactly as I thought it would (1.4 WAR his last 3 years). With Pujols going downhill year 6, it’s the worst scenario for the Angels. With his salary, the Angels are pretty much obligated to start him as the DH in year 7. Now, if he continues to be bad, it will remain to be seen if the Angels cut him and eat the remaining money (similar to what the Red Sox did with Panda).

  23. Looks like Alvarez will be taking Eickhoff’s spot, works out well with both on same schedule. They can put about 3 players on the 60 day DL.

  24. My sense from how management is shuffling position players around is that this off season may be the most active in years. Even Franco may move across the infield in some September games. He and ToJo seem tagged to be elsewhere in 2018.

    Finally, it’s time to see foreshadows of the future. Will Middleton lay down the gauntlet to MacKlentak and push for aggressive hot stove action? I think that conversation may have already taken place. And there is no apparent reason they shouldn’t be stirring the pot.

    Let’s just hope their judgment is sound.

  25. Galvis winning the gold glove at SS would have been a silver lining to a bad season.
    Floriman is a journeyman who shouldn’t be taking playing time from other players.
    Franco is not getting better & should lose playing time.

    JP to 3B.
    Keep Freddy at SS.
    Bench Franco & let him refocus in the fall league & ST.

  26. Yes, Freddy is a gold glove SS. He’s also a FA after next season. They will get less for him at the deadline than they will this winter. He’s below average offensively. (Yet Pete still insists on batting him 2nd.) Galvis will likely get more on the FA market than the Phillies should spend on him when Crawford is already an offensive upgrade despite his numbers. He’s even hit for more power than Freddy this year in fewer games played. Neither of them is the ideal 3b of the future. People can put Galvis on the wall of fame if they want to. He’s a popular guy. I get it. Let’s move forward.

  27. The whole thing feels disjointed to me and I don’t know what the H pete is talking about anymore.

    No way do we need to see “Mikey” at 1B and what sense does it make playing Cesar at SS…he literally has lost his mind but I guess that is to be expected after the 3 seasons he just endured.

      1. I mean you will have to play some guys at 3B and I would be ok with Blanco and Florimon there. Blanco is probably not coming back but I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Florimon as that utility guy going forward.

    1. Hopefully there are waiver trades happening today. Can’t help but think Nava & Kim are being showcased to contending teams somehow. I don’t think Freddy or ToJo would command much right now. Better off waiting until the off-season to move them.

      Pete is getting marching orders from the FO. Cesar already tried to play CF & SS in the past with bad results. No need to mess with his trade value. A dip in production can impact return.

    2. My view on Kim is that he might be a lot better than he’s shown. But if you’re going to play him, then play him. Otherwise, he should get out of the way and, frankly, it’s not a big deal because rosters expand soon.

  28. The only value that Franco has is in a Rizzo for Cashner type of deal, where we have to hope we get the Pitching equivalent of Rizzo, rather thean end up with the Cashner end of the deal. TJ brings back very little. Nava could help a team now as a PH.

    1. matt13…my only concern with moving Franco now is that ‘Aramis Ramirez effect’. The 2002 version of Ramirez is not all that dissimilar than the 2017 Franco version…Pitt brought him back for ’03, he then started to get his value up and then wallah….was sent to the Cubs and the rest is history.
      Now Franco is a better defensive third basemen than Ramirez was, but he may just need a little more time or, then again, just maybe a change of scenery to wake him up.

      1. His value is so low now that you almost have to keep him for just this reason. It’s funny that he (Ramirez) is the comp you used because he’s the player that I have always though he Franco could be if he achieved most of his potential. But they need Franco to totally retool how he approaches an at bat because what he is doing now is producing a disaster.

        1. Perhaps he will go to winter ball in the DR and work on a better approach.
          Strange….but for a suppose power guy with his hitting issues, his K rate is only 15%, and his BB rate is just a little below average at 7%. All I would think he needs to do is get his head situated correctly.

          1. That’s true and it’s a testament to his incredibly hand-eye coordination.

            But all the hand-eye coordination in the world won’t allow you to take an outside pitch and pull it without rolling it to the SS nor will it prevent you from over-swinging. I think a little JP time at third could induce some healthy fear in Mr. Franco.

  29. You are correct, but, unfortunately, the head part is most often the toughest to fix. It is almost September, and he just shows no improvement in his approach to the plate. I still see him twisting his head around away from the ball, and too often seeming to guess at the pitch rather than see it. His approach is 180′ different than Hoskins.

  30. Who – if any player – moves today ? Who would you handicap as most likely to be moved ? Is there any action today or at the last minute ? My bet, Nava most likely to be moved. Can you think of any surprises ? My surprise, Blanco moves.

    1. Definitely Nava. And maybe ToJo if he slipped through waivers. By the way – do we know who made it through waivers?

  31. I believe Nava had previously been placed on waivers, and my best guess is he was claimed (he makes little money and has had a really good season). I don’t believe Klentak got an offer from the claiming team worth sending Nava away.

    1. You may be correct, still when he did not start in either game yesterday, I thought for sure something was developing

    1. Unless there is something ailing with Nicasio…..why would the Pirates just let him go? Contract money?
      His velo still remains 94-96 from years past and now he is even throwing a cut fastball to go along with the remaining arsenal he throws….4Smt. 2Smt, Slider and change-up..

      1. Here’s the what Keith Law (from today’s chat) claims happened with Nicasio:

        “Nicasio had limited trade value; I know they shopped him in July, asked for a lot, and didn’t get an offer they liked. It’s two months of a rental reliever who is very good now but has only been good for a year and a half. I had an AGM with another club speculate to me that the team that claimed Nicasio on trade waivers – which he was, by an NL team – offered the Pirates bupkis, so rather than do that they chose to just let him go and figure he’d at least get to go pitch for a playoff team in the AL. I can’t confirm that, but it makes sense, and it doesn’t make the Pirates ‘cheap’.”

        1. Well I assume, he would ask for $5/6M AAV for two years this off-season.
          Which is not a lot….but like KLaw said….he was very average up to recently.

        2. Keith Law should know that relief pitchers are notoriously up and down, that’s why they are not starters,

    2. Love the move a good RH proven RP yeppie, test him as a closer if it works sign him for 3 yrs.

      1. Tim….just he rarely was ever used to close in the past. He can get wild also. And this season was his best year ….so maybe he has turned the corner on his career.

  32. Nicasio has pitched well, and the Pirates releasing him makes no sense. Isn’t his money guaranteed? So, the Pirates save a few bucks because the Phils claimed him. It can’t be that much. This is a no-brainer for the Phils.

  33. Frank, that was a nice story about Rhys Hoskins and his character. I think the Phillies have a potentially great player and an even better person.

  34. Also from Keith Law’s chat today:

    Jason: What do you see as a realistic outcome for Scott Kingery’s career? I’ve seen on other chats that you’ve compared him to Altuve but do you see that as his ceiling? Or is he a star?
    Keith Law: If he develops some patience – he really just goes after the first pitch he can hit, and so far, he’s hit most of them – he could turn into an Altuve type, but that’s a top 5% kind of outcome. Very few players go from this sort of approach to Altuve’s level of patience.

    Patrick : Medina, Suarez, Kilome, Dominguez, Romero…all legit prospects after Sixto? Thanks Klaw
    Keith Law: Yes, no idea, seeing tonight, probably, yes. I’m assuming those are Luis Suarez and Seranthony Dominguez.
    (He got Ranger Saurez mixed up with Luis Suarez)

    Bro: Who are your top 5 pitching prospects at the end of the year? Based on previous chats and media, I was thinking your top 5 would be (in no particular order) Whitley, Kopech, Keller, Buehler, and I don’t really know who the 5th would be. Quantrill maybe?
    Keith Law: Those are the top four, clearly, and then there’s a big black line between that group and the next tier. The next group of high-upside guys are all kids a long way off – Sixto, Groome, Ian Anderson – too far to put them in the top tier.

    1. Hinkie….interesting, he already just uses Sanchez’s first name to describe….Sixto.
      Or maybe because he was named in the answer earlier in the chat to a question from another poster?

  35. FWIW, just saw on television that the Phillies did not send a contingent to Japan to scout Otani.

  36. Romus I am just wondering Eric Kratz has played parts of seven seasons. Do you know if he gets pension for 7 years or is it games you play. I Just wonder how they figure out the pension for these guys.

    1. rocco…I believe I saw somewhere it is based on active service time in days and years, the time computed from time on the 25-man roster is the basis for that.
      It is not games …I know that.

      1. I just read something on it. 43 days on roster and you get 34000 a year pension. 1 Day and medical for life. I am amazed , I cant believe how little time to get that pension. crazy

        1. That’s because it’s a ridiculously small and select fraternity, including all of the guys who have had cups of coffee.

          After all this time, I believe there have only been about 19,000 players in the history of the sport – the population of moderate town. If a guy has been on a roster for 43 days he’s probably a legitimate major league player – that includes guys like Ty Kelly.

          As for the pension and other benefits, if that’s true, it’s impressive and a testament to the union for caring and about and preserving rights of its least powerful members.

  37. Kudos to Adam Morgan on his performance yesterday. I always liked him. He has battled back from injury and is turning himself into a pretty good relief Pitcher. Rupp also gets credit for calling a good game. Alfaro needs to learn from him. If Chooch does not play next year, I hire him immediately and create a coaching position for a Catching coach.

    1. Morgan has completely transformed his game – it’s been stunning. Moving from starting to relieving, he gained about 5-6 MPH on his FB and he’s improved his breaking offerings. He has the stuff now to be an elite set-up man if he can stay healthy. Check one long-term need off the list (and a potentially expensive one!).

      1. Supposedly Bob McClure tinkered with Morgan’s slider grip, and he’s a lot more consistent with it now.

        After giving up a single to Dee Gordon, he Ks Stanton on a changeup, he makes Yelich look like a punk with a slider, then he Ks Ozuna with a slider in the dirt. Very impressive.

        1. McClure gets a lot of criticism but honestly the Phillies pitching talent is not great. It is good to see Milner and Morgan step up their games. Ben Lively with a gritty performance last night but I wish the other pitchers would also show improvement.

      2. Totally agree. If Morgan can continue with this type of performance over an extended time, a power armed lefty who can pitch multiple innings and against righties too just saved us 6-10 million on free agent market that can do toward starting pitching

    2. matt13…yes, appears the Captain is back.
      Hard to believe it will be almost 4 years since his shoulder surgery.
      His velo has apparently returned .He could be that lefty next season in the pen they will need. Him and Hoby Milner should make a good lefty duo.

  38. I expect the Phils to release Kim when both Doobie and Altherr comes back early next week and possibly shut down Eickhoff and Eflin (60-DL) the rest of the season. That’s 3 roster spots to use for September call up. JPC is the only top prospect that I expect to come up when the roster expands. I hope El Garcia will be called up too, but that may not happen. Quinn, Appel, Knapp, Valentin are hurt. Drew Anderson will be shut down, not sure about Tirado. Jake has < 150 IPs, but he will not make me excited but I wouldn't mind to see Cozens in the big show.

    So far, JPC is the only one that needs a roster space so there will be 2 more that will be added. Henderson Alvarez might be added after 2 decent starts and there will one mystery person.

    1. KuKo…..FWIW, there are no 60-Day DL designations after the season is totally completed.The final 40 come November is clean from those designations

      1. Romus – agree. What I’m trying to suggest is to put both Eickhoff and Eflin during the season (part of September call up) and NOT AFTER. Currently, the Phils have Buchholz, Fien and Vinny in 60-DL. The Phils can just release both Buchholz and Fien and replace them with Eickhoff and Eflin to create that 2 roster spots.

  39. For me Herrera and Altherr have to play everyday when they come back and so does Williams and so does Hoskins so that means Tojo has to go on the shelf for sure as does Franco.

    JP has to come up and get a lot of playing time. I’m ok with getting Freddy his starts. Not sure if he wants to start 162 or just play 162 but either way they should be able to accommodate him.

    JP should be the rover for 3B SS and 2B and then all should work out fine.

    1. I can see Freddy start at SS until the end of the season and possible do a switch with JPC middle of the game so PeteMac can see JPC at SS. Maikel and ToJo will be seeing the bench more frequently this month.

      Austin Davis is the other prospect i like to see this September. Unfortunately he got hurt.

  40. FWIW…The Larry Green Jr. 2011 batch produced 8 MLB players:

    1) Giles (Rd 7)
    2) Morgan (Rd 3)
    3) Quinn (Rd 2)
    4) Asche (Rd 4)
    5) Rios (Rd 12)
    6) Murray (Rd 13)
    7) JDT (Rd 17)
    8) Stassi (Rd 33)

    Giles is starting to look like a legit MLB regular and Morgan is showing that he can hand with the big boys.

    I consider Asche, Murray and Stassi as failures while Quinn, Rios and JDT has 1-2 years to prove they belong

    In that same draft – TB has 12 in the top 90 picks (a Hinkie dream) but BOS is the ultimate winner of that 2011 draft.

      1. I can’t say for sure how that trade will turn out. But it was a well-conceived trade – one that I make every time if I’m the Phillies during a rebuilding period.

  41. Does anyone know what is up with Quinn’s injury? It was the beginning of May if I remember correctly, and they said he would be back this season. Clearly something was much worse than thought.

    1. Let’s all be honest about this – the guy is an injury dumpster fire.

      I still don’t think they should trade him, but there’s no way he should ever be slotted for a starting role on this team (at least until he has 2 or 3 fully healthy years behind him). Let him scrape and fight for whatever playing time he can get.

      And it’s sad, because he’s extremely talented. I think he has it in him to be a better player than, say, Dee Gordon or Billy Hamilton. But if you’re not playing, you have no real value.

      1. that’s why he fits in as a perfect 4th OF. strong defense, switch hit, pinch run, can play once or twice a week and speed never gets rusty sitting for a few days. Best chance of staying healthy. an OF of alhter, Williams, Herrera and Quinn would be fun to watch in 2018

    1. Fien’s spot in the 60-DL will be replaced by either Eickhoff or Eflin creating a open roster space – JPC is almost certain a Phillie by early next week.

  42. Talking about call ups, I wonder if the Rockies find a way to call up Ryan Howard. He’s got his BA up to 250 and his OPS up to 784 and he’s hit three home runs in this 13 games.

    If they don’t call him up and give him a shot a MLB pitching, I wonder if they even invite him to camp next year.

  43. They biggest need this organization has is to acquire and/or develop smart ball players. To do that you need evaluators and coaching to make that happen. I didn’t see the game but saw that both Freddy and Cesar got nailed between 3b and home last night. Doobie wasn’t around so we can’t blame him.

    Kingery’s considerable valuable already exists even before he plays one inning in a major league game because if he’s nothing else (which he certainly is) he’s a smart ball player who Keith Law says needs only to develop his plate discipline to become an Altuve type player. That’s high praise. He’s probably tired at this stage of the year yet he’s still contributing.

  44. 8mark, I agree with you. I like Cesar, and I admire how he has transformed his game. He deserves credit. But Placido Poalnco was a better ballplayer. We traded him, albeit for Machete Man, but we traded him, to make room for Utley. Polanco could have played 3B, as he did when we re-signed him. But, it is not insulting Cesar to suggest that the future at 2B for the Phils is Kingery, and moving Cesar this off season is Klentak’s best move. I don’t think he is much of a July trade candidate, and to wait an entire year does not make a lot of sense. They may do that, because it is easier to keep Kingery in LHV for another year, but that is not what I would do.

  45. Kevin Siegrist Phillies aren’t sitting around on there hands . Nice to see mlb proven Relief’s coming in. Which makes me think are they going for in the off season.

    1. That would be a good move, especially if he remains healthy for 2018.
      His velo has dropped over the years….sitting at 93-95 in ’14 and ’15, then starting to tick down to now at 90-92. He has had forearm concerns earlier this year , which could be possibly a red-flag for a UCL issue down the road.
      But at least it is showing Mat klentak is taking a chance.

  46. Florimon’s foot slipped off side of 1st base and is out for season. That puts active roster at 26 with Herrera and Altherr to join in a day or two, but only 4 starting pitchers and 1 of them is Leiter.

  47. Archer went down today with forearm tightness, Storman gets nailed by a line drive .Harvey should retire he totally lost it.

    1. Perhaps Harvey came back a little too soon.
      Those shoulder area surgeries, and in his case thoracic outlet, seem to be usually 2 or more year recoveries to see if a pitcher can reclaim his lost effectiveness..

      1. Harvey is still arbitration eligible for 2018 so he’ll still be pitching for the Muts next year. And then it’s on all Harvey to prove that he is healthy.

        1. Yeah….they are not going to let him go just yet. Man they have incurred plenty of injuries. Now Conforto has to have shoulder surgery and probably will be out until 2019. And those type of injuries can re-occur again over time.

        2. I thought he was a FA. I mean the Mets are going to have a new HC and let’s see what direction they my bet Harvey gone, Maybe Wheeler or Marz too.

      2. Give him another 2 yrs ,but who’s signs an injured pitcher he’s a FA and the Mets are out . He’s 28 wait 2 you have a 30 yr old who last success was 3*yrs ago.

  48. Anyone concerned about Aaron Nola’s sub par performances lately? Having Cameron Rupp catching him does not help him as his curve was not working but how about the changeup to keep the Miami batters off balance. Rupp should go this off season as a complementary part in a trade.

    1. First of all, it’s not on Rupp that Nola’s pitches are not working. It’s on Nola. Rupp called for 2 inside pitches on Stanton and Ozuna. Nola did not get it in enough. Now, I guess you could argue why is Rupp calling inside pitches for those guys.

      Anyways, Nola’s fastball was fast enough, he just couldn’t locate it that well. His curveball wasn’t that tight. And he got shelled for it.

      His changeup is still a work in progress.

    2. I keep saying it nola isn’t a top of rotation guy.. You expect too much from him. 500 pitcher maybe on a good team

      1. He’s not a TOR guy, he’s more of a 2-3 guy. But that’s ok, you know how much those guys get on the open market? It’s crazy.

  49. Interesting, Jake Thompson has went back to the full windup when there’s nobody on base. We’ll see how that goes.

    1. Wow, this was the best I’ve ever seen Jake Thompson throw this season, and it’s not even close. He was throwing the kitchen sink up there (fastball, cutter, change, curve/slider) and they all had movement. Now, his 4 seamer was 90-92, but he really mixed in all his pitches, to the point where the Marlins had no idea what was coming. Great job by Thompson.

  50. Man, Juan Nicasio is funky but he has some juice in his fastball. He’s going to get paid in the offseason that’s for sure. I can easily see him getting 3 years, $18M

  51. Wow, just heard that the Marlins want their payroll to be in the $60M range for next season. They have some problematic contracts on their roster like Wei-Yin Chen and Martin Prado, besides Stanton. It’s going to be an interesting offseason for the fish.

    1. The Marlins are going to need a miracle to get rid of those contracts. And their minor league system is terrible.

        1. First of all, if I’m the Marlins, I’m holding onto Yelich. I need somebody to be the face of the franchise. Then I’ll try to attach Wei-Yin Chen’s contract to either Braxton Garrett or Trevor Rogers. I need to get rid of that contract pronto. Then I eat $100M and trade Stanton. And if people are asking for Marcell Ozuna, I’m attaching Martin Prado’s contract to him.

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