Open Discussion: Week of August 20th

Weekly Discussion

The Phillies were on their way to a truly horrendous week when they halted their 6-game losing streak with back-to-back wins before leaving San Francisco.  They ended their 3-week trip around the country with a 5-13 record.  They finished the week with a 2-5 record. They have a 45-77 record and a .369 PCT.  

The Phillies are off on Monday then start a 10-game home stand with a double header against Miami as part of a 4-game series and then a 3-game, weekend series against the Chicago Cubs.  After that the Phillies play 26 of their next 33 games against their East Division opponents.  The exceptions are a 3-game series against the A’s and a 4-game series against the Dodgers, both at CBP.

The Phillies are 29.0 games out of first place in the East Division, with an elimination number of twelve.  They are 9.0 games behind the fourth place Mets. They are 21.0 games behind the Diamondbacks in the Wild Card race, with an elimination number of nineteen.

With their victory over the Giants on Sunday, the Phillies eliminated the Giants from the West Division title.  They are the first such elimination of the 2017 season.  Go Phillies!

Now, the race we might have a chance to win –

Bottom 10 Teams W L PCT GB L10 STRK PCT 7/31 Net Gain/Loss
Philadelphia 45 77 0.369 – 3-7 W2 0.374 –
Chi White Sox 47 74 0.388 2.5 4-6 W1 0.391 -0.5
San Francisco 50 76 0.397 3.0 4-6 L2 0.398 -0.5
Cincinnati 53 72 0.424 6.5 5-5 L1 0.415 -2.0
Oakland 54 70 0.435 8.0 4-6 W1 0.441 -1.0
Detroit 54 69 0.439 8.5 2-8 W1 0.453 -1.0
NY Mets 54 68 0.443 9.0 3-7 L1 0.461 –
San Diego 55 69 0.444 9.0 5-5 L1 0.436 –
Atlanta 55 67 0.451 10.0 4-6 W1 0.452 –
Toronto 59 65 0.476 13.0 5-5 L3 0.479 -1.0

In spite of the 2 wins in Frisco, the Phillies extended their lead over the 5 closest teams in the race to be the “Least of the Beasts”, and no team gained ground on them.

The New Guys

I don’t know how you guys feel about this, but I am extremely pleased with the play of Nick Williams, Jorge Alfaro, and Rhys Hoskins.  I think they have done well, especially when you consider that they just experienced a road trip the likes of which they never experienced in the minors.  While I would like to see Alfaro play more, he just played 3 days in a row.  I hope this trend continues.  And I would prefer to see Hoskins at first base, but at least he’s getting some major league at bats and is holding his own.  Matt Winkelman has been documenting Hoskins’ effectiveness since his call up.  It substantiates V1again’s article about Hoskins last week.  Then there’s Williams.  I don’t think anyone could have expected him to adjust as well as he has.  Maybe there is something to be said for keeping guys in Lehigh Valley longer than we think they should.  Naaaah.

Key dates remaining:

  • August 31st, 11:59 PM EST – Waiver Trade Deadline
  • December 10-14th – Winter Meetings in Orlando
  • December 14th – Rule 5 Draft

Last Week’s Transactions: 

  • 8/20 – Phillies recalled Ben Lively from Lehigh Valley IronPigs
  • 8/19 – Phillies signed free agent OF Christian Marrero to a minor league contract
  • 8/19 – RHP Tommy Bergjans assigned to Lehigh Valley from Reading
  • 8/19 – OF Christian Marrero assigned to Reading Fightin Phils
  • 8/19 – RHP Adonis Medina assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport
  • 8/19 – RHP Mauricio Llovera assigned to Williamsport from Lakewood
  • 8/18 – Phillies placed CF Odubel Herrera on the 10-Day DL. Strained left hamstring
  • 8/18 – Phillies sent RHP Pedro Beato outright to Lehigh Valley IronPigs
  • 8/18 – Lehigh Valley IronPigs activated SS Hector Gomez from the 7-day disabled list
  • 8/18 – Lehigh Valley IronPigs placed SS Matt Williams on the temporarily inactive list
  • 8/17 – Phillies activated RHP Pedro Beato from the 10-day disabled list
  • 8/17 – Phillies designated RHP Pedro Beato for assignment
  • 8/17 – Phillies recalled SS Pedro Florimon from Lehigh Valley IronPigs
  • 8/17 – CF Carlos Tocci assigned to Lehigh Valley from Reading
  • 8/17 – SS Zach Green assigned to Reading from Clearwater
  • 8/17 – Clearwater activated 3B Jose Antequera from the 7-Day DL
  • 8/17 – Clearwater activated RHP Edgar Garcia from the 7-Day DL
  • 8/17 – LHP McKenzie Mills assigned to Williamsport from Clearwater
  • 8/16 – Phillies optioned RHP Nick Pivetta to Lehigh Valley IronPigs
  • 8/16 – Dalton Guthrie assigned to GCL Phillies from Williamsport Crosscutters
  • 8/16 – OF Yahir Gurrola assigned to Williamsport Crosscutters from GCL Phillies
  • 8/15 – Phillies placed LF Daniel Nava on the 10-day disabled list retroactive to August 12, 2017. Lower back strain.
  • 8/15/- Phillies recalled CF Cameron Perkins from Lehigh Valley IronPigs
  • 8/15 – SS Angelo Mora assigned to Lehigh Valley IronPigs from Reading Fightin Phils
  • 8/15 – RHP Adonis Medina assigned to Williamsport Crosscutters from Lakewood BlueClaws
  • 8/14 – OF Adam Haseley assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport
  • 8/13 – Phillies sent RHP Casey Fien on a rehab assignment to Clearwater Threshers
  • The organization’s rosters are up to date.
  • The organization’s injury list is as up to date as I can make it.
  • The organization’s Rule 5 eligibility list is as accurate as I can make it based on the

Here’s the open discussion thread for Phillies’ talk and other topics.

 

233 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of August 20th”

  1. “Maybe there is something to be said for keeping guys in Lehigh Valley longer than we think they should.”

    Or maybe the Phils’ season would have really taken off if they had shuffled the roster in June, rather than late July, to accommodate the young talent. Don’t suppose we’ll ever know.

  2. Here’s my take it seems like Lively , Elsemann, Taravas, pitchers that know where there pitches are going have early success .
    . V,V , Pivetta , Ramos, are so up and down because they leave FB or there breaking pitches over the plate. I also see pitches in the same location more then Once . Which leads you to believe either thats the only place they hit with confidence. The ml hitter waiting on that 3 Rd pitch in the same area and crushing it. V,V, Pivetta and Ramos are giving up big time HR and Double’s. I mean mL hitters are crushing them. I watched Lively up down in out with 4 pitches. He used his CB for 2 Double plays , if he needs a pitch he can put where he needs it. V,V , Pivetta , seem to lose in a heart beat. Just saying

    1. Yesterday was vintage Ben Lively. He battled for 6 innings, got some luck with 3 double-plays and Florimon throwing a laser to nail Posey at the plate. His control is way better than Eflin or Pivetta. If he was throwing 95-96, he would be top 25 guy (and would still be pitching for the Reds). Lively knows how to pitch and he kept the Phillies in the game.

      1. Yeah, he’s fine as a 4th or 5th starter and it’s always possible (not likely) that he develops some type of lethal out pitch. He’s okay and keeps you in games. If he’s around, he’s around. If he gets traded, he gets traded. But he’s not someone you project as being part of a long-term solution.

        Speaking of long-term solutions, it’s a shame that Eickhoff doesn’t throw just a little bit harder. If he sat 92-94, I think he could be a 2 or 3, but he’s a perfect example of how a righty with good breaking stuff leads a tenuous existence if his FB is average to below average. It’s just tough sledding without a good FB.

        1. I never said he was long term. And you know what, he could surprise, and hang around for a while. It would be nice to have 4 aces (I think as fans, we got really spoiled off that) but the reality is, we won’t have that, and will likely not see that again for a long time.

          I’m only commenting on this because everybody seems to want him gone because he’s not elite. Let the guy pitch, he’s productive, and he has positive WAR.

          1. No argument here. He’s useful and, right now, he’s not blocking anyone. If he establishes value, he can be added to a trade or just continue to grind away.

        2. And as a final note, Ben Lively is not blocking anybody (Pivetta included). Sure, we have some arms in minors, but the elite ones are at least 2 years away.

        3. Agree that Ben Lively could be our #5 starter as he does keep us in games and knows how to pitch. Nick Pivetta looks more promising as a starter to me than VV if he can harness the breaking pitches. VV can be our closer with Neris working the eighth inning or vice versa. Zach Eflin also has potential but needs to stay healthy.

          1. philabalt…..I was a little surprised by Lively’s velo readings yesterday.
            I saw him sit in the 91-93 range and touch 94 a few times.
            Brooks had his 54 4Smrs average at 92.5 with a max at 94.6.
            If he can maintain those readings consistently he could be a very good back of the rotation guy.

            1. Actually, that’s a good point. If you can rear back and throw your FB by people, that changes your trajectory quite a bit.

              Talking about throwing a ball by people – Neris has been able to do that recently as never before. If he ironed out his command, there’s no telling how good he could be.

            2. Yep…..and the truly great RHPs with the high velos….and no offense to you Tim if you are reading this…..can do it, game in and game out and for 95 plus pitches in each game. I am just not sure Lively can do that.
              In LHV and even in Reading, he always seem to waver up to that 94 zone in one game , then the next game he was barely touching 92 or 93.
              Whereas someone like Pivetta…steady Eddie at 94-96T97 with his 4Smr…almost every game.
              I think Bob McClure said to LA in the pre-game a few days ago, concerning his high consistent velocity readings….he has a chance of being one of the great ones outside of the Kershaws and the Scherzers…..not sure how to take that.

            3. Yea ,but with Pivetta his bad numbers are bad H/9 9.4 HR/9 1.8 bb/ 9 3.8 . If you put that in raw numbers that’s 40ty Hr and 80 BB in a 200 ing season. He’s 25 by next yr he has to get that command & Control . A Note on Neris k% is down 2 % his hits % is up 2%. This Spitter isn’t as good.

  3. Could Jp play 3rd Yes , 17 Hr 56 RBIs .430 .obp .554 slg that’s Turner form LA. Jp does have of that and plays above avg D yea it could work. How much better would the Phillies be with Herrera and Altherr in the Line up ?

  4. Before the season, I was 10X more excited for our young starters who were due to make their debut this season than the hitters…and, boy, was my energy misplaced. Hoskins, Williams, Altherr, even Alfaro have all looked like capable hitters, whereas none of our stable of young arms has really impressed. There’s been flashes, and they’re young so hopefully they’ll improve, but Lively, Thompson, Pivetta, etc. have been barely tolerable.

  5. The Rockies 2nd Rd dr picks Blackmon,Arenado, Story, Bettis . You don’t have to pick 1:1 to get the best players.

  6. Ok so I know that we AREN’T trading for Trout HOWEVER I had a “discussion” with John Y at work about what it would take. Here are the guys I think would at least start a conversation from the Phillies . . .
    Nola/Altherr/Crawford/Kingery/Sixto/Kilome

    Here is what John thought the Yankees would need to offer . . .

    Judge/Fraizer/Torres/Severino/Sanchez/Florial/Acevedo/Andujar

    Just wondering what others think . . . who are the guys it would need to start with?

    Again I know that it’s not going to happen but just wondering thoughts.

    1. You’d be better off figuring out what Orioles would want for Machado, someone who really might be traded and someone that the Phils will go all in for. I’m guessing MM and Kilome plus a 3rd piece for a year of Machado with time to extend him. Do you do it? Of course

      1. If Machado doesn’t sign in four months, I’d offer to Duquette, if he is still their GM by then, Herrera, Franco and Orioles choice of any 2 pitchers in the Phillies system….not named Nola or Sixto Sanchez.
        But first have Matt Klentak/MacPhail agree with Lozano and Machado to a long term deal in that sign and trade.

    2. EricD….it seems, you rarely see trades for more than the 4-to-1 variety, for that one mega-star….why?
      IMO, because GMs would really like players close if not MLB ready, which in most instances these young vets or prospects have to be 40ed right away,
      at the time of the trade, which means they will have to DFA four or more current 40 guys that they may not want to.
      The six you suggested would mean 5 current Angel 40 guys would have to be DFAed.

      1. Yes but everyone has players that they can drop off and for the talent I suggested probably would warrant that. And some of them don’t have to be added unless I’m misinterpreting. Also I know we aren’t going to get him in a trade, there was zero thinking it was going to happen just wondering what a fair offer might look like.

    3. As bad as the Stanton contract could turn out to be in his declining years, the Yanks would be much better off trying to get Stanton to decline his no-trade to come to the Bronx and play along side guys like Judge and Florial rather than trading those guys and a lot more for Trout. It wouldn’t even be a close call for me and I like Trout. The trade John Y. suggests mortgages a huge amount of the Yankees future, changes the direction of that franchise and forces them to become active again in the free agent market.

      For the Phils, I have to think that the Angels put Trout on the market as a last resort only after serious doubt arises regarding their ability to extend him. If the Angels reach that conclusion, then Philly is in serious play to land him as a free agent following the 2020 season. The Phils would love Trout in the near term but probably can’t coax the Angels with an offer before the 2019 season ends. At that point, better to wait. Put another way, why would Trout want to come play for a team that has given up 6 vital pieces to land him? At that point, you could imagine the Phils working to make a trade for Trout that makes him look elsewhere to sign as a free agent.

  7. I counted 13 guys on the Phils yesterday who were in LHV this year. That’s crazy. As for Hoskins, 5 homers in 11 games. Not bad! As in never done before as a Phillie!
    The Phillies have 40 games to play and have to go 17-23 to only lose 99.

    1. I am going to make an educated guess that the Phillies are not going to lose 100 games. Why? Because, having grown up outside NYC watching the awful late 70s Mets teams and then moving to Philly, becoming a Phillies fan and watching the bad early and late 90s Phillies teams and now this latest dreadful team, no matter how bad my teams were, they never lost 100 games. So I’m guessing it won’t happen this year, either. That’s as scientific as it gets!

      The real answer, however, is that as Odubel and Altherr get healthy and J.P. gets promoted (I think that happens this September) and Hoskins continues to rake, this team will show enough of its potential to play nearly .500 ball the rest of the way.

      1. Yep, can’t wait for Altherr and Doobie to get back, and have Hoskins at first…
        . Lets hope Pete will play them all at the same time

  8. The goners are nice but the consistent at-bats are even better…we need more guys like that

  9. A really am impressed with what Williams and Alfaro have been doing I was down on both players. Hoskins I believed in but we shall have to see how he does over the long haul. Right now he has a pretty amazing .154 BABIP, but you have to love 7/8 K/BB.

    Alfaro is a little more worrying at .500 BABIP and 10/0 K/BB.

    1. Williams appears to be working very hard on his plate discipline – and it looks like he has improved, which is difficult to do. Now, the question is whether, when pitchers make the adjustments, he will be able to adjust back. He’s certainly hanging in there, so we’ll see.

      I am not bullish on Alfaro. If you’ve followed him the last few seasons, you will notice a pattern when he is promoted. He hits great for a few weeks and then slowly gets worse and worse until his stats are not very good at all. I don’t think that’s a coincidence or beginners luck, I think that’s about teams learning that he will chase bad pitches and breaking balls out of the zone. When he gets a steady diet of junk, I think he’s going to struggle. I know he has a world of talent, but if he whiffs on balls out of the zone, that talent isn’t going to translate into performance on the field.

  10. I wish I could understand why they are moving guys out of postion. Jp at third wont give you power. what the hell is that move.? Just do what you think is right and we all now know its Hopkins to first. and kingery to second, even though I love Cesar. They must decide if the shortstop is going to be jp or freddy,

    1. I think it’s about finding a way to get JP to the majors and get some at bats without lessening Freddy’s trade value. While it’s remotely possible that Hoskins could stick in left (because it improves his value), putting JP at third, long term, reduces his value (although, like most people, I expect him to be at first in the long run). I’m sure it’s not a long term thing – nobody wants JP as the third baseman of the future. That makes no sense.

  11. Let’s not forget Freddy has a 41 game error-less streak going, leads in most of the old fashioned fielding averages I believe, and is intent on playing 162 games. If not in name, he appears to be the clubhouse leader and inspirational guide. Pete is not going to sit him nor move him in order to give any kind of “negative” sign. Franco has had an abysmal year and why not let JP play 3b in order to bring him up ? Its a short term fix of sorts. Freddy has had a career year and it doesn’t appear that is changing. Moreover, somebody more astute than I, like Romus, will point out that JP has to be put on the 40 man and they might as well do it in September ?

    1. Hah….the 40 bug- a -boo.
      But agree with you, might as well do it in September. Whats the difference waiting another two months.
      It is not like their 40 is loaded with play-off players.

    2. Yeah. I really hope Pete doesn’t do anything to mess up the team chemistry…the results could be disasterous…we might end up with the worst record in baseball.

      1. Exactly? What are people thinking? Taking Pivetta out of the rotation because we might lose? Yeah, and what’s the downside of that this year? Nada.

  12. Murray…actually it has been done before [Hoskins 5 HR in 11 games] though not often. Richie Allen hit 6 home runs in his first 12 games as a starter in 1964 and even more impressive, catcher Bobby Estalella hit 6 home runs in his first 7 games as a starter in 1996-’97.

  13. Going to see a real winning process.. just beg and got my home opener tickets for the process.

    2. Unfortunately, we don’t have anybody on Embiid’s level.

      Embiid is a Trout/Harper level prospect.

      Simmons is a Judge/Devers level prospect.

      Fultz is a Bellinger/Bregman level prospect.

      Looking at it I think we have 4 guys who could *potentially* be on the Bellinger/Bregman level: Crawford, Kingery, Hoskins, and Sanchez.

      Fortunately, I think they *could* all rise to the next level given their strengths: Hoskins’ elite OBP + power, Crawford’s elite OBP at a defensive position, Kingery’s hit tool, and Sanchez’s fastball & command.

      However, I don’t think they’ll ever get to that first level like Embiid, being a perennial MVP candidate. Hopefully, we’ll get our Embiid with a top 3 pick in 2018. This is certainly an exciting foundation, though.

      1. I would be happy in dreaming for the 2018 mid-point with a top four in the lineup of:
        1. Kingery
        2. JPC
        3. Machado
        4. Hoskins
        Sixteen ABs per game with those high OBP and high ISO guys would be ideal.

        1. If the Phils trade for Machado in the off season, which I think is less likely than at the trade deadline next summer, it may take at least 1 of Kingery or JPC to get him. I would not be thrilled with that, and think the chances are much better signing him as a FA.

          1. matt13……Schoop is their guy at 2nd, so it would be JPC more than likely, since they need shortstop help.
            I had envisioned offering Herrera, Franco and any 2 or 3 pitchers in the Phillies system…not named Nola or Sixto. But that would probably pale at some of the other better farm system team’s offers. I still think JPC is ‘da man’ down the road for this team. So I would hesitate offering him…and if that os wha it would take, I guess I would pass.
            Peoplle will say Freddy is ding a good job…yeah defensively, but this year may be the best year of his MLB six years as far as OBP is concerned….at .307 he is at his highest, and .307 really! That is not a good mark for a number 2 hole guy.

            1. If we are being honest tho, Freddy isn’t a 2 hole hitter. He may be in the line up now as a 2 hole hitter but on a winning team that not where he’s hitting. Ideally he would be in the 8th hole, at least in my opinion.

            2. Yes, he would be a great 8 hole hitter, the power facet would make him dangerous in the 8 hole.

          2. Eric….I just do not see Freddy manning ss long-term once JPC is ready to come up for good…which should be mid-2018 or maybe even sooner, out of ST.

            1. Yeah we have differing opinions of Crawford. I don’t think he’s going to be anything more than average, which is perfectly fine. I look at it as what would I want? I’d rather have Galvis as my 8hole hitter playing a GG d over Crawford. But that would also take the players around him being good enough to allow Galvis to slide into the 8th hole.

            2. Eric…average?
              If he is a BA/OBP-275/385 guy from the shortstop position…..I would not call that average.
              Granted his ISO is now at .160 at :HV, and that may be a little inflated, he however may settle in at .130 or so….that still could register into 12/15 HRs and 25/30 doubles annually.
              His defense has been rated plus for the first three years and then taken a hit these last few months, but my guess now that his hit tool has ballooned back up….his defensive gradings have also…mysteriously.
              I think his leadership will also be something that intangibly cannot be measured for its true worth once he is in the league 2/3 years.

            3. Yes average. You are talking AAA numbers and to be honest OVERALL numbers havent been that great since the end of 2015 . . I mean his number in 2016 were a combined .250/.349/.339 . . . I just don’t think he’s going to be more than MLB average and I guess there’s nothing wrong w that at SS. But yeah i’d rather have a team that allows Galvis to hit in the 8 hole (again barring there are playing around him that allows that) than have Crawford in the 2 hole. I just think we get more outta Gavlis D and power in the 8 hole, not to mention his leader ship abilities.

            4. One factor, I think play-off teams have is that they create runs and win games via the higher on-base theory.
              Freddy…as much as he is loved and plays great defense….in 5000 PAs in the minors and now the majors, has barely a .290 OBP.
              Perhaps he can be a viable 8-hole hitter.

      2. Ahhhhh, but here’s the beauty of baseball, it’s not a sport where you need a superstar to win a championship like basketball and, in most years, football (star QB).

        In baseball, the KC Royals can win a championship. In BB that type of team has no shot.

  14. there are a couple of things that strike me as i watch hoskins early success:

    1) it seems foolish to place a ceiling on him, as he has exceeded expectations and improved at every level;

    2) i chuckle every time i am reminded of the “swings through average fastballs” comment of some expert earlier in his career

    1. The last time I had that feeling was watching Ryan Howard in 2006. It seemed like he just got better and better as the season progressed and you started realizing he might hit 60 homers.

      But, yes, Hoskins has the look of a legitimate star. What makes it so convincing is how good his at bats are. Does he look like a rookie out there to you? No, he looks like the most advanced hitter on the team and light years ahead of guys like Franco and Rupp.

    2. I’m also reminded of the scouting report that Rhys didn’t have the bat speed to advance beyond upper minors pitching

  16. With I as a repeat offender, the Hoskins/ToJo debate is over.

    With a strong September performance, the JP/Freddy could be over.

    The new debate will be Kingery/Franco at 3B. Cesar is proving to be a commodity for this team.

    How does this lineup look next year?

    1-Cesar 2B .350 OBP
    2-JP, SS .368 OBP
    3-Alther, RF .332 OBP
    4-Hoskins, 1B .383 OBP
    5-Williams, LF .345 OBP
    6-Kingery, 3B .343 OBP
    7-Doobie, CF .347 OBP
    8-Knapp, C .362 OBP

    I also believe this lineup can produce over 150 HR’s

    1. Switch Kingery and Cesar’s position–Kingery can’t play 3B, his arm isn’t strong and accurate enough, and he’s an excellent 2B. Hernandez can handle SS so he can handle 3B with enough practice.

    2. Think bigger. Think about trading Kilome, MM, and Gamboa for Machado and Cesar for a young starting pitcher. (I would also like to trade Herrera for a starting pitcher but only if they can sign a good free agent OF). That would leave us with a lineup of
      1) Kingery
      2) Herrera
      3) Machado
      4) Hoskins
      5) Williams
      6) Altherr
      7) Alfaro
      8) JP/Galvis
      Imagine if they signed JD Martinez and traded Herrera for a starting pitcher.

      1. I can’t imagine that package is big enough to get Machado. It would be something like MM, Kilome, Dominguez, Cesar, Odubel and Neris. No thank you. They should keep their powder dry for now and wait to buy hitters and not send tons of prospects and pay the money. That’s how you cut short a rebuild before it gets underway.

  17. I think one of the more underrated problems for the Phillies the last few years is amazing lack of depth they’ve had. We’ve been trotting out a lot of guys who’ve killed us (frenchy, Saunders, Franco (this year), Joseph (if we’re being honest), Perkins, Stassi, Goeddel, Asche, Ruf, Ryan Howard). These guys were all at least -1 WAR. That adds up quickly/

    Crawford, Kingery, the return of Quinn, etc, seem to present a roster crunch, but I think we should be happy about this development, not ready to trade established players away. Galvis, who hits RHP fairly well, can at the very least platoon with Franco. If Kingery forces his way into the starting lineup, then Cesar is an over-qualified utility guy. Both Quinn and Kingery give us excellent defense/baserunning options late in games.

    My point is that some guys might see their value drop due to lack of opportunity, but we’ll recoup that in immediate value. THe pitching staff will continue to be a mystery, but at least we’ll have guys who will provide plus value as part of a balanced team.

    1. Galvis is a FA at the end of next yr and will walk . The bigger need is pitching both starters and Relief Pitchers .Starters that can get to the 7th .

      1. Which is why they need to trade him. Otherwise, Pete will play him and not J.P. and Galvis will just walk at the end of the year – it doesn’t get more counterproductive than that!

    2. Actually, the Phillies do have depth. The problem is that the depth are not performing. Trust me, we have it a lot better than say the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays have no depth whatsoever, it’s crazy to see.

  19. I think that Cesar is a good trade candidate. It takes talent to bring talent back, and even a #3 SP will require the Phils trading away someone we would prefer not to. But Kingery is ready, has a higher ceiling, and I mean no disrespect to Cesar. Rather, he deserves credit for upping his game and making himself a commodity. The biggest need going into next year, and I am not minimizing the other needs, is adding quality SP. I go after Yu Darvish and then, in addition, trade for another SP.

    1. matt13….FA pitchers after next season ….David Price,Matt Harvey, Gio Gonzalez, Patrick Corbin, Drew Pomeranz, Garrett Richards, Drew Smyly, and Brandon McCarthy.
      Some look tempting……but some have their own historical medical issues going on.

      2. Maybe Gio he’s left handed or Pomerantz , that looks like Hinkle dream rotation All post Tj .

  20. I think the O’s would laugh at MM, Kilome and Gamboa for Machado . . . I don’t know that MM is high on anyone’s wish list right now and won’t be until he can prove himself, even a little bit . . . he’s been close to terrible this year.

    1. Well, the Orioles sure had a chance to see Kilome last night and he plays to an area of their need. (What team can’t use a prospect who can reach 97 and is developing a concept of pitching?). Machado for just the one year left on his contract is not worth breaking the bank for. Without permission to negotiate a 5/6 year extension, Machado becomes a trade deadline target next year for a team incentivized by Machado’s contribution to a playoff run.

      If the Phils have a mind to trade Galvis this off-season, the market to me sorts out to the Royals, Twins, Rays and Marlins. A more costly Zack Cosart will be on the market, too. Those 4 figure to be teams relevant in Galvis’ free agency following the ’18 season. Not a big spender in the bunch.

      For Hernandez, I could see his being of interest to the Dodgers where he represents an upgrade on Logan Forsythe.

      1. Machado will probably not reach free agency.
        The Orioles are not going to settle for a comp pick near the bottom of the first round.
        The best time to move him will be in the off-season…..a 2018 July two-motn rental will not be attractive for a contending team…..and then , what if the Orioles are hot in contention next season, they cannot move him then either.
        I would try to get him in four months under sign/trade agreement between Lozano/Duquette and MacPhail.
        Breaking the bank… with him and Hoskins at 3 and 4,that is one of the best combos in the league.
        I would offer the Os the opp. to pick any three pitchers in the entire Phillies system except Nola and Sanchez, and also offer Herrera, and Franco for their 3rd base replacement in December and see what they say..

        2. Adams is Baltimore CF ,Mancini is Lf , Herrera can’t play right . Try Altherr and Alfaro .

        3. Romus … I could definitely see Manny Machado making it to free agency. I’m pretty confident the Orioles won’t trade Machado this winter. If Baltimore is (even remotely) in contention next July, they’ll almost assuredly hold on to him and make one more run with Machado. I agree the smart thing for the O’s to do would be to go into full rebuild mode. They should deal Machado, Adam Jones, and Zach Britton. However, Angelos is stubborn, and I don’t see them doing that.

          1. Hinkie…..I just cannot see Baltimore going into the 2018 season with their best player in a lame duck contract year. Players do not normally want to talk contract after the season starts.
            I can only assume they will make their push to sign after this season and before the Dec meetings.
            If not…then let the bidding begin.
            The Os will make a killing in return if another team can persuade Machado to sign with them in a sign and trade deal.

    2. You want Machaddo you start with Hopkins. obbie and herdanez. and two low level pitchers like. Viza or taveras or Romero

      1. rocco…every GM wants pitchers….and they prefer ones that are close and quality.
        Why take a guy in A ball if 2/3 years, and that is minimum, is his ETA….so many things happen to pitchers in that period of time.

  21. Some bad news, VV just got transferred to the 60 day DL and reportedly going to see a specialist for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Hope for the best, but VV needs to get his health in order before he steps back onto a mound.

    This means 3 rotation spots up for grabs next season. I think if Lively doesn’t grab one of them, it’s a near certainty that the Phillies will go after somebody. Yu Darvish is obviously the top choice, but he’s likely to command 6 years, $175M at age 31. And Darvish has a bit of an injury history.

    Either way, the Phillies are going to overpay for somebody in their 30s.

  22. Looks like the Phillies are going to sign Henderson Alvarez. He can still be offered arbitration one last time so if he looks decent, it’s another low cost option for the Phillies. He was reportedly hitting 98 with not great command, so we’ll see what happens. He hasn’t pitched in the bigs since 2015.

  23. We knew it was coming, and Eflin was added to the 10 day DL. So our rotation is now Nola, Eickhoff, Pivetta, Lively, and who got next? I wonder if Henderson Alvarez will get a shot right away.

    1. I like the Alvarez signing. The worst thing that will happen is that he can’t do it – no big deal. Yacksel Rios was promoted. Has a good FB, which is a start.

    2. Alvarez pitched 7 innings on Sunday night with 3 earned runs for the Long Island Ducks. So he would be able to go on Friday. It looks like Leiter tomorrow, or they bring Thompson up, tomorrow is his day to start.

  24. Vince Velasquez has surgery on his middle finger and is out for 6-8 weeks.
    Tough times for the pitcher for sure.

  25. I did not read anything about Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, something a lot more serious than a Vascular problem on his finger. I hope it is as minor as was stated. But, increases the need for SP acquisitions for next year’s rotation.

      1. We send out our messages on the ether thinking they go out fast. But sometimes they arrive slow.

        Phils signed Henderson Alvarez today.

        Fighterflea August 2, 2017 at 9:51 AM

        The Yankees have an over-supply of prospects beyond what they can protect this off-season. Outfielders Jake Cave and Billy McKinney are blowing up at AAA in a way that would thrill Philly fans if they were doing the same at Lehigh Valley. Those 2 are buried in the Yankee system so a trade for one of them makes sense. For a team struggling with their 40-man, a return of younger prospects makes sense. The Yankees also have an over-abundance of young arms, perhaps 3 more than they can protect, offering possibilities for a

        At the moment, the Phils’ thin bullpen should motivate them to sign guys that cost nothing but salary. David Aardsma and Henderson Alvarez with the Independent League Long Island Ducks should get a look-see and the Phils should kick the tires on lefty Jon Niese who has been rehabbing a knee injury.

        Reply

        1. If Niese or Aardsma get signed soon….then Matt must be reading the board and taking notes. And you might want to send in your resume to the Phillies organization..

  26. It’s the finger not the back , J Thompson also will come up to take Eickhoff turn due to the Double header.Lieter will take Elfin place ,man it’s becoming the who’s who in the rotation.the Phillies can’t wait until Sept 1.

  27. Hoskins continues to play really well, but he should be at 1B. I understand, only mildly, giving TJ every chance, but come on now. His numbers are just not good. And Franco has the very worst OBP of any 3B in the Majors, and I think the next worst is .30 points higher than him. I see the same futile at bats, with no apparent clue what he is trying to do at the plate, on August 22, that I saw on April 22. Nick Williams, otoh, seems to have progressed quite a bit at working the Pitcher and having good at bats.

  28. Of course, I complain about TJ and he his a 2B and a HR! But, the point is still valid that Hoskins is the 1B of the future and should not be playing in LF.

      1. I just think Hoskins should be at the position he will play next year. You are right, pickings are slim.

  29. Watching this team is so painful. 60 pitches for Pivetta in less than 2 innings. How can this team not lose 100 games? They should not be this bad. At least, I don’t think so. At the very least, there needs to be a new pitching coach. That is assuming Pete comes back,and if they lose 100, how can they bring him back?

  30. Wow, if looks could kill, Pivetta would be toast. Pivetta gave up 2 home runs on 2 brutal pitches, one on a crazy hanging curveball and another on a centre cut fastball. 6 earned runs, 1 and a third innings, 60+ pitches, and Mackanin yanked him. And Mackanin looked absolutely pissed as the bullpen is going to have to cover Pivetta’s innings yet again. Pivetta looks lost out there and to me, has not learned anything since his debut. I would be shocked if he pitched again for the Phillies this season.

    1. Eddie Ramos is the long man?? Man, I guess that’s what happens when you’re in the doghouse.

  31. Your right Guru he’s avg 2 home runs an outing that’s bad. Send Him and Eflin down to AAA although Eflin arm mite be hurt again that’s not good news. Phillies could hang in with Nola, Eickoff ,Lieter ,Jake Thompson , ? Rotation. But no trades or FA signing

  32. I wouldn’t be up on Alvarez he has a 14 to 13 ball to stike % . The Phillies FO has had enough of ” another walk buy the Phillies pitcher ” the next you hear ” man on 1st no outs , wow was that hit 2 run homer , that makes the score ?”. That was another 95 mph Fb right down The pike.

  33. I watch Pivetta and think to myself could he be another Arrieta meaning he leaves us and gets with a new pitching coach that is able to tinker a bit with his mechanics or arm slot and whammo a stud is born.

    I don’t ever like to call for someone’s job but it’s my perception that our pitching has looked really good if not some decent down in the minors and then they get the call up and go in the tank. It’s not just one or two its almost all of them not named Nola.

    1. All three mid-90s velo guys…ViVe, Eflin and Pivetta…..could be eventual Arrietas.
      Arrieta struggled mightily his first three years with the Os. And his velo was at 93-95T96.
      And yes….but what derails from the AAA level to the majors for these guys?
      The one guy…..Lively has seem to weathered that learning curve so far….and surprisingly his velo at 92-94 is higher than I can remember at Reading and LHV….go figure…hot guns?

      1. They all could be eventual Arrietas, or they could turn into Ethan Martin. Arrieta had 63 starts for the Orioles, an astounding number considering how poorly he pitched for the Os.

        I think Pivetta has the best fastball but VV has the best secondary pitches of the 3. Looks like the Phillies are committed to giving VV one last show in the rotation for 2018. The other 2, who knows.

        1. Have to remember…health is a big factor….Drabek, Mathieson, Martin, Nicky Hernandez, et al shoulders and elbow ailments were their big hurdles that they could never get over. Morgan ahas seem to survived.
          ViVe…..of the three has had the most sporadic time off due to different ijurie….Eflin , until last years surgeries on his knees, pitched thru it for 3/4 years in the minors.
          And Pivetta so far has been healthy.
          That is a plus Pivetta and maybe Eflin..

            1. Heck fly Pivetta down to Clearwater and pay Doc a nice consulting fee to spend 7 days with the kid going through tape, work out regimen, game planning and mental preparation.

          2. In the end, whether it’s injuries or ineffectiveness, none of them are getting the job done. So they should lose their opportunities to others.

  35. Great job by Lieter he pitched a great game . Same for Hill who almost had a perfect game,,Chase wow what a play.

    1. That’s what I’m talking about. Opportunities don’t come often, and you need to be ready to perform. Great job by Leiter.

  36. The Phillies win tonight. This might be a safer time (don’t want to upset any “true” fans) to broach the issue of the Phillies winning/acquiring/schlepping into (use your favorite term) the 2018 1-1 draft pick.
    Now that the Phillies are three weeks removed from that 5 game winning streak, they’re back to winning at a 1-1 level (.318 to be exact). Meanwhile the White Sox have suddenly begun playing more like a decent team (.500 over their last 16 games), and the Giants actually have a winning record in August. The Phillies have just 37 games left in their season. They are three games worse than the CWS and four games clear of San Francisco. In addition, the Phillies own the tie-breaker over both of those clubs.
    What does all of this mean ? The Phillies reverse magic number is down to 34 !

    .

    Tim arriving to point out the Phillies still have six games left with the Braves (who the Phillies have beaten like a drum this year) in 3 … 2 … 1 …

    1. Yes butt lol Phillies are 25 and 24 in their own Division. CWS are bad team , the Mets traded everybody and lost 17 games in August. the Phillies are getting back Herrera and Altherr. Plus we all know the Phillies will reach for a LH outfielder bat in the draft. It’s seems the Phillies game plan has come to light. They get the arms For Sal and LA draft the bats.

      1. Tim……you actually believe after three successive OF bats in the draft, the Phillies will go four straight drafts with a bat as their number one picK?
        Especially with all the bats at the higher levels who are either playing in the majors or a step away.
        You do realize….their pitching is not really setting the world on fire!
        Unless Singer goes flat in the spring…..IMO, he will be their choice.

        1. We all thought pitching this yr but if Beer had a great yr or another College hitter . I really think they feel they can get LA arms easier . I mean how many LA arms did they sign this yr .

          1. Tim…..they are 16 year olds. So yuo wait 6/7 years….and have to go healthy season no less.
            A college pitcher….ala Nola,gets drafted in June ’14 and is pitching in the majors by August ’15.
            Can’t get there any faster then that. And I can see that happening with Brady Singer….drafted in ’18, pitching in the rotation by late 2019

            1. Romus, I told Guthrie that Singer was on our (PP) radar for 1:? in next year’s draft. He said the normal nice things you would expect a teammate to say. But then added that the Phillies drafting him would be great because he would not look forward to batting against him, especially with a wood bat.

            2. I like Singer too but he needs a couple PDS of muscle . I just don’t see them drafting a pitcher that high . The FO has said unless the pitcher is an ace there not Drafting a pitcher in the top 10. The FO now has a track record bats first ptching second unless it’s a special kind of pitcher aka Cole, Sale etc . Btw there Sal’s 16 yr old arms. The Phillies don’t really have a great record with prep arms.

    2. I read recently this upcoming draft is going to be the best it has been in a while but still no clear Bryce Harper type player in this draft.

      1. 2018 draft is a going to be loaded with pitching. It is especially deep in HS pitching. On the other hand, next year’s draft is light on college bats. If the Phillies land the 1-1 pick, they should end up with a 13.4 million dollar draft budget (that includes the 5% overage allowance). With that budget and the volume of high end prep pitching, I think the Phillies could collect multiple impact arms rounds 2 and beyond.

    1. Sometimes in sports a certain position or role is inappropriately devalued. Just as relief pitchers were in baseball up to a couple of years ago (when people realized you could shorten a game with a dominant bullpen) and running backs were in football before Elliott was drafted.

      My view is that, for some reason I don’t fully understand, right-handed first basemen are, as a group, extremely undervalued. Does it really make THAT much of a difference if a first baseman is righty as a opposed to lefty? I don’t think so and this is especially true given that I think power hitting righties generally have better platoon splits than power hitting lefties.

      1. When I say they have better platoon splits, I mean less divergent platoon splits. Many lefty hitters can barely hit lefty pitching (witness Ryan Howard and Dylan Cozens).

        1. Agree.
          Logically……approx all batters face right handed pitching 70% or better thru their lifetime….from say age 10 in Little League thru the majors.
          So for a right handed batter….IMO, .that is an advantage since they are more accustomed to same side pitchers….well at least more accustomed and more of an advantage, lets say, than left handed batters to left handed pitchers.
          Now facing opposite side pitching instances, I assume, favors the LHBs.
          Actually…not being able to adequately quantify those premises leaves me just guessing and being opinionated.

        2. In General teams take the least athletic big or older or aging player stick him at first. There’s more right handed pitchers so normally you want LH power hitters.

      2. As a hitter, you’re going to see more RH pitchers and LH pitchers. So with that inherent advantage, that’s why most 1B are lefties. Unless you’re an absolute butcher at 1B, you need to mash at 1B to have value. So you need all the advantage you can get. It’s no surprise that most mashing 1B are lefties (Freeman, Votto, Rizzo). Also as a lefty, you’re probably throwing left too. It’s an easier throw to 2B and easier to apply the tag at 1B for pickoffs.

        1. Yes, that’s right – agreed. My point is that these perceived advantages do not merit the nearly complete discounting of a righty at first base. I mean, as a right-handed hitting first base prospect you’re presumptively a nobody and are completely discounted. Rhys Hoskins didn’t get 1/4 the love he should have gotten as a prospect.

          1. I agree, RH 1B are discounted. They are discounted for the many reasons I mentioned above. Hoskins is proving the critics wrong so far. But the fact is, you still need to mash, and there’s not many RH 1B in the last 10 years who have done that.

            1. But there’s really a more practical explanation and that’s that there are only 4 places on a baseball field to put a lefty. The outfield and first base. You basically can’t play a lefty at third, middle infield or catcher. So, if you’re a righty, there are many other places for you to play and, if your team can, they will put you in those other places because you have more value there. So, what I’m saying is that there are plenty of other righties who I’m sure could mash at first, but their teams generally put them where they are more useful and valuable rather than first, where they are inherently less valuable.

            3. @ Romus, Joe Maddon is funky. Remember when he put 4 infielders in the WS against the Phillies?

          2. No it’s the RH older College 1st baseman ie: Hoskins will be 25 by his first full season. Alot can go wrong in a career it’s just a shorten time .

  38. I really want to see a starting IF of Hoskins, Kingery, Crawford next season

    I think the Phillies should try to move Galvis, Hernandez, Franco, Joseph, and try to either

    a) buy low on Felix Hernandez- he may be on the decline but maybe he just needs a new change of scenery. No idea what it would take to get him. and/or .

    b) make a play for Machado- maybe the Orioles will realize they can’t resign him and deal him…. Realize he would cost a lot.. Moniak, Franco,. Kilome or Medina, Cozens, and Randolph.. would they say no to that?

    1. a) You need to understand what change of scenery means. It implies that the player is not unlocking his value with his present team and needs to go somewhere else. Like Mark Appel. King Felix is declining badly. He started out very young, he was durable, and he has thrown a lot of innings. He’s now starting to get injured. He has declined from 4.4 WAR to 0.8 WAR in a blink of an eye. He’s still owed $54M the next 2 seasons. I don’t want any part of King Felix.

      b) Not only would the Orioles say no to that, they would laugh in our face. I don’t know why you guys are always trying to trade struggling/poor assets for elite ones. As a start, Sixto, Moniak, Crawford and I’m not even sure that would be enough.

      1. Re Felix- it’s not our money, so who cares? given the low payroll for several years, the team has money to spend (I realize they could just keep it as profit though). It would be a risk but even if the young hitters pan out, pitching is a mess and doesn’t look to improve in the near future. Frankly, if he could be had, I don’t see the downside.

        Re Machado- you’re probably right.. I was going on the premise that he would leave.. Then again, the Orioles would get some draft compensation so you are right they would need to be justly compensated. Given the team’s lack of immediacy, no need to go for him now.. better to wait until he is a FA or the trade deadline before

        1. Money always matters. Now obviously the Phillies don’t have payroll so they can easily absorb it. But if you don’t have to spend it, then why do it? Besides the money, King Felix’s downside is that he can’t even out pitch Mark Leiter. And the Phillies would have to give up somebody too! Then why don’t we give somebody like Marco Estrada, 2 years, $33M? That would be better value and we wouldn’t have to give up anybody.

          You have to understand the Orioles owner. He’s notoriously thrifty. Machado is helping put seats in the stadium. It’s going to take a lot to get him to let that Machado go.

    2. Yes, they would say no to that. If that’s what you want to do (and I’m not advocating this by the way), you would probably need to send a couple of prospect or young players that it would really hurt to lose, such as Sixto, J.P., Kingery, Oduble, Cesar and/or Altherr. Second tier prospects – even a lot of them – aren’t going to cut it.

    3. I would seriously try and trade CeHe to the Dodgers this off season in a move for prospects, no doubt with Logan Forsythe coming back. Forsythe plays 1B,2B and 3B and the corner OF spots. He’s also played a little SS at the big league level but only as a fill in. . This unlocks some of the infield situation in Philly as Forsythe is an alternative (short term) or motivator for a slumping Franco. Out of Forsythe, Kingery, Galvis, Crawford and Franco should be 3 MLB quality infielders. I would give Kingery every opportunity to be the starting 2B coming out of camp next year.

      If Crawford performs well at AAA early in ’18, then I would move Galvis during the ’18 season, when injuries elsewhere around MLB could enhance his market.

  39. How much is Machado going to get on the open market? The Phils should have more than enough after seeing their payroll bottom out the past few seasons. Would love to see them invest it with MM as a long term answer at 3B.

    1. Let’s see, Machado is going to be a FA at 26. Right now, he’s a 4-5 WAR player. My guess….10 years, $315M

      1. Sounds about right – and, oh yeah, he’s going to get an opt-out clause too, so the deal will only lock him in for 3 or 4 years, max. That’s life in the big city, friends.

        2. DMAR……I would not use Stanton’s contract as a base precedent. Agents and players will try but not sure they will get to that right now.
          Remember when Texas signed ARod to that 10 year $252M contract in 2000….it took a few years later before the next $25M AAV contract was offered and signed. I t escapes who that was now! .:).

          1. Don’t say his name please….

            But to your point once the glass ceiling was broke it was routine to hand out that AAV after that.

            Same will hold true for Machado as it will for Harper and then as it will for Trout

            1. Miggy stands right now as one of the highest or maybe the highest AAV@$28M.
              8 years, $248.0 million (through 2023 with $30 million options for both 2024 and 2025)…….but one thing to know….the 2024 and ’25 options become fully guaranteed if Cabrera finishes in the top 10 of the MVP voting the previous season. Extension was signed with two yrs remaining on his previous deal, meaning he had 10 years and $292 worth of contracts remaining prior to the ’14 season. The two contracts combined have the potential to be worth as much as $460.3M over 18 years….or 25.5M annually averaged.
              But you are probably correct in that Harper and Machado will break that $30M barrier but how far north is still in question.

    2. Not sure how bad that will really affect his already fairly low defensive rating.
      The one measurement…..Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) has 8 factors…one of which is ‘good-play/bad-play’…and there are 28 components to that. Losing the ball in the sun for a fielder is not such an adverse critical rating as you would think. Certainly not so much a deficit as missing cut-off men, or running wrong routes letting batters reach base or take the extra base.
      He needs to make a few over the fence HR saving grabs…or throw out a few runners to bump up his ratings.

      1. Williams isn’t the greatest of defenders is he? He takes some weird routes and gets turned around quite often.

        1. Nicky Dubs needs to go back to RF and let Odubel roam CF. Odubel is faster, better instincts, better range.

          1. I Didn’t see the game today. I am in Saratoga springs for the travers. but please tell me how can they pitch Thompson. terrible

            2. rocco….Thompson was not good….but the bullpen gave it up however.
              Hoskins with # 8 and ToJo with 19….Williams with a couple hits.
              Bats are alive with Hoskins in the middle…pitchers not so much.
              Always Dreaming.

            4. Jake Thompson was optioned back to Lehigh. I do not expect to see him for the rest of the season.

  41. Hoskins just hit his 8th homer – already. Really, he’s something else. But nothing he does is an accident or coincidence. He consistently has the best at bats on the team.

    1. Oh man, the Vanimal hung that curve like there was no tomorrow. Hoskins is just not missing mistake pitches.

      1. And the Vanimal hangs another one to Tommy Joseph. Not sure what that was though, curve or slider? Either way, you hang em, we bang em.

  42. I mentioned a couple weeks ago, Brady Singer isn’t as good a prospect as AJ Puk and Alex Faedo were after their soph years at Florida. I got the confirmation from Keith Law (in his chat) today. As a mater of fact, says Singer isn’t even the best Gator pitching prospect for the 2018 draft. He likes Jackson Kowar better:

    Hinkie

    Is Brady Singer a better prospect than either AJ Puk or Alex Faedo were after their sophomore years at Florida ?

    Keith Law

    Nope. If healthy, Kowar is a better pro prospect than Singer.

    Law also believes the Phillies should trade Freddy Galvis:

    Michael

    Hi Klaw- Looking to the future for the Phils infield, would you trade Franco and have the 2B-SS-3B positions manned by some combo of Hernandez, Kingery, Crawford and Galvis?

    Keith Law

    Would Franco have much trade value? I think Galvis is the guy you trade, with Kingery/Crawford the DP combo going forward.

    1. Hinkie…sorry I prefer the guy with the better track record in peripherals….. so far….swing and miss and control.
      Plus Kowar’s H/9 is not really that decent.
      And where as one improved last season the other seem to regress by the numbers.
      Who started Friday nights?
      Singer registered a 3.29 ERA in 112 innings. He struck out 108 and walked just 29. He throws a mid-90s fastball, a slider, and a change-up.. Singer was a second-round pick in 2015 by Toronto but chose college…so he has had good reports from HS
      Kowar also has had good reports and was a 4th round pick two years ago.
      Kowar’s metrics just seem to regress this past year.
      KLaw does not go into the reason behind that..

    2. no matter how you shake it there is a lot Klentak can do to dramatically improve this team next year.

      He’s got to get better with his trades though and he will have to bet on a FA pitcher this year.

    3. Romus … I’m not saying Kowar is a better 1-1 choice. I’ve only been saying Singer is a bit overrated, and he isn’t a slam dunk 1-1 pick. If the draft was tonight, I’d pick Jeremy Eierman at 1-1. Ethan Hankins and Matt Liberatore would be the other guys I would strongly consider.

      1. Not sure Phillies will go with another position player as their first pick.
        Plus, in Eierman’s case, he or JPC would have to move off their customary position.
        In the past they did the pitcher/position rotation it seem….however under the new regime its been position players the last two years with Ruben’s gang taking Cornelius R as another position player in their last draft before the MacPhail/Klentak regime took over.

        1. Eierman will probably be a 3B-man in the pros (if not his jr season at Missouri St). He reminds me of Nick Senzel (with a greater power tool). Senzel played all over the infield before settling into 3B at the start of his jr season. I’ve posted their numbers before. I’ll do it again:
          Senzel … frosh 181 AB, .315/.419/.420 12 doubles, 3 triples, 1 HR
          soph 200 AB, .325/.399/.495 12 doubles, 5 triples, 4 HR
          Eierman .. frosh 230 AB, .296/.336/.504 13 doubles, 4 triples, 9 HR
          soph 243 AB, .313/.431/.675 15 doubles, 2 triples, 23 HR

          TBH … it shouldn’t matter what position you draft. You just draft the best player. If there is no clear “best” player, you then consider position, age, and salary demands. The Cubs consistently selected position players at the top of the draft. They’ve moved guys to different positions to make it all work. The Braves over the last four years have had 25 picks in the top five rounds. 20 of those 25 picks were used on pitchers. Atlanta will most likely flip some of those arms for bats in the future.
          Next June, if the Phillies are convinced Griffin Conine (Jeff’s son) or Jarred Kelenic (both LH OF’s) are clearly the best players available, they’re probably going to take one of them and figure it out later.

          1. Where does Beer go ?
            Tim … it’s best when cold. If I were you I’d keep it in the refrigerator.

          2. Sorry to hear about your drinking problem.
            BTW … Seth Beer’s draft status has slipped because he no longer is an able outfielder. He is strictly a 1B-man/DH.

            1. the more alarming scouting report on Beer is how much his OPS drops when you put wood in his hands

              The OPS with Metal was 1.100 last season and I believe .600 with wood. They don’t however state the sample size.

              And I don’t buy that he can’t make it as an OF if the bat translates to what it shows now he will be fine in LF.

      2. Think like the Phillies FO ,Alveraz does the Draft ,not these national draft experts . The Phillies time and time again have favored pitchers that Controlled the stikezone.they stay away from The big armed med control pitchers early in the draft.

    1. Therrien is getting his lumps up in the big show and I hope he learns from this outing.

  44. As a team the Phillies seem to be developing young hitters at a good pace when JP Crawford and Scott Kingery come next year.

    A lineup of Herrera, Crawford, Kingery, Hoskins, Williams, Alfaro/Knapp, Altherr and Franco can be an imposing lineup that will score runs.

    It looks like the Phillies will have to buy their pitching until Kalome, Sanchez and others make the team. The keepers are Nola, Eickoff, Lively, Leiter, Milner, Neris and maybe Morgan. The rest of the pitching staff needs to be replaced for next year.

    Overall, if Crawford and Kingery do well we will have a team that is enjoyable to watch and on the right track toward contention. I would not trade for Machado or Stanton if we have to give up many of our young hitters.

  45. Cannot believe the injuries the Mets have incurred.
    The latest….Conforto swings and misses then clutches his left dislocated shoulder as he sprawls on the ground in agonizing pain.
    Not sure I have ever seen a player blow out his shoulder on a swing….have seen backs, ribs and obliques.

    1. I thought I remembered a 3B coach once injuring his shoulder while waving a runner home. While searching for this incident, I found some really funny injuries. My favorite is this one …

      In 1923, Red Sox player Clarence Blethen, who removed his false teeth while playing, left them in his back pocket and bit himself while sliding into second base.

      That is too funny !!!!!

  48. Eric Longenhagen chat when he was asked about Adam Haseley Eric A Longenhagen: Can’t see him hitting for the kind of game power needed for stardom. 55 glove in CF, potential plus hitter, runs well. More of a table setter and well-rounded player than a star.

    1. Tim:
      I see it a little different than Eric L.-…. Haseley can be a Benintendi- type player with the same or better ISO ingredients!
      For one, he is measurably bigger, and will be more so over this off-season, since he doesn’t have pitching to worry about and further wear him down thru a full season, like he had to endure these last three years.
      Almost similar to DArick Hall and the three years he had to pith and play the field….and look what that has resulted in once a player can concentrate on only one aspect of the game..

  49. CW: Have you had a chance to see JP Crawford recently? Seems like hes made some kind of adjustment.
    1:40
    Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him in May and thought he looked okay, couldn’t see anything indicative of his horrendous start. It sounds like he’s finally finding comfort with his footwork in the box, something he’s constantly tinkered with as a pro. I think he’s going to be fine. I’m down on him compared to how I had him evaluated last offseason but still think he’ll be a good everyday player.

  50. Who is the best 2018 draft prospect?
    1:20
    Eric A Longenhagen: It’s early for such declaration but I have been thinking about it lately. The college arms who I’ve had atop my board at this point in the process had mixed junior years. Alex Faedo, Alec Hansen both had mixed results. So I’m not comfortable anointing Brady Singer at this point but he’s the highest profile college arm at this point. Kumar Rocker has the best stuff on the high school side, his size creates some dissent among scouts who worry he’s too big, and Tyler Kolek (who didn’t carry his weight as well as Rocker does) is casting a recent shadow on that profile.
    1:21
    Eric A Longenhagen: As far as hitters go, I love Brice Turang’s athleticism and glove but some scouts can’t see taking a guy without an impact bat at the top of the draft. Jared Kelenic has a well-rounded skillset but no elite tools.

  51. By the way, as we watch this team slowly begin to come together let me make a comment about something that I thing is going to be really important as the team searches for ways to improve.

    The little stuff that, spread across a team of 25 players, ends up becoming really big stuff.

    Like what? Things like base running and defense.

    One of the little hidden secrets about the last great Phillies team was that they were excellent on the base paths and they were really good fielding teams.

    But let’s talk about the running part. My view of this is that one of the most under paid men in baseball is Davy Lopes. Lopes is, without any doubt in my mind, the great base running coach I have ever seen. Under his guidance, a guy like Shane Victorino went from being just a fast guy who sometimes stole bases and sometimes got caught, to a base stealing machine. He was amazing and it was because of Lopes – Utley and other guys had similar success. How valuable was Lopes? I would say, spread across the team you probably saw a 4 win improvement JUST DUE TO BASE RUNNING. That’s $25 million my friends, so when the Phillies treated him poorly and refused to give him like a $200k raise I knew that they had no idea what they were doing (thanks again for everything Ruben!).

    Anyway, back to the present – this current Phillies team is seriously the worst on the base paths I have ever seen and the statistics bear this out. They are almost a negative 20 run team on the bases – meaning they have lost a good 3 games just due to bad base running. The players are partially at fault, but this is also due, in large measure, to horrible coaching and a really bad third base coach (sorry, Juan Samuel is really bad at that job).

    If this team really wants to take their game to the next level, they are going to need next level coaching and managing across the board. If they keep the same people in place, it’s going to cost them – big time – when the team gets to the point where they are ready to contend. If the team brings all the coaches back for next year, I’m not going to be happy about that. I love computer analytics, but they aren’t a replacement for good coaching.

    1. I have to agree here. Besides the blunders on the basepaths, the issue for me is the lack of SBs. Cesar and Odubel are too good to only have 20 SBs total between them. For me, it’s the instincts and jumps off 1B. They are terrible, and a reflection partly of the coaching. I mean, Howie Kendrick is no burner, but he’s still 3rd on the Phillies in SBs! Damn, I miss JRoll and Utley on the basepaths.

    2. Catch, you can blame Mr. Charlie Manuel not Ruben for that decision to let Davey Lopes go as he wanted more power and Charlie said no. As for Saint Charlie Manuel I always wondered why he gets a free pass with the decline of the Phillies. He mishandled Dom Brown horribly, had issues in letting the young players start, the letting go of Jimy Williams and was totally out managed in the 2010 and 2011 playoffs. Finally your dislike of Ruben is getting very old so please let it go.

      1. philabalt….yuo alos forgot, Charlie pushed the envelop and also wanted Hunter Pence, and this only after Werth was gone for half a season at the time. Though Domo really teased us early on.

        1. You are correct I forgot about the Pence trade which hurt us badly. People forget Charlie quit at Cleveland when they traded Manny Ramirez and started to rebuild.

          1. No, people forget that the Indians traded away the team, which then sunk, and then Charlie got blamed. The Indians are my other team (where I grew up). I know these things. The pain Charlie experienced over being fired affected everything he did and said in Philadelphia. Charlie never quit.

      2. I’m not going to go out of my way to defend Saint Charlie, but if I remember correctly the decision by Jimy not to come back was Jimy’s not the Phillies, and the Phillies scrambled to find a new Bench Coach near the start of the 2009 season.

  53. I was apprehensive to acquire front line pitching before the hitting was fully developed.

    But now, I believe this lineup anchored by Hoskins & other high OBP batters, has an excellent chance next year.

    It’s time to put the likes Thompson, Appel, & VV into the BP. Leaving Nola, Eichoff, Lively, & Pivetta with a FA TOR starter.

    Darvish would be a good candidate for me. Arrietta just seems to be a Boras trap.

    1. The Phillies don’t have a good history with Boras so I seriously doubt Arrietta is coming here.

      Pivetta in the rotation? It’s doubtful he’s get called up when the rosters expand in September. What makes you think he deserves it over say Mark Leiter?

      1. I’d love to see a study of the 10 history on Boras clients before and after they signed their deals.

        I’m not one for saying just because the past was one way that the future cannot be improved. I’m not a Boras fan I don’t think he is good for the game from a fan perspective….obviously he is beholden to his clients and really shouldn’t be thinking about any of us when he negotiates a deal.

        At the end of the day I hardly feel empathy for owners and in many cases if I thought too much about what certain players make it would totally turn me off to baseball in context to what goes on in the world you have to ask when is enough enough for playing a game.

        I mean of what use to man kind is hitting or throwing a baseball and in that light why is that worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

        Sorry I’ll get off my soap box

        1. The problem with Boras is that he thinks every one of this clients are “once in a lifetime talents” and as such, deserves to be paid like one. Ever since JD Drew, I believe the Phillies have only had 1 Boras client: Ryan Madson.

          1. Guru…..lest we forget Jeremy Hellickson……took the QO of all things last November. Who would have thought that!.
            Granted Hellickson probably was not going to get anything near what the QO rate was …..but it definitely was a Boras maneuver that was out of his normal modus operandi.

            1. Oh man, forgot about Hellboy. Actually, that maneuver is part of his MO. If he doesn’t get the contract he wants, he settles for a 1 year deal and hopefully the player rebuilds his value. I think Boras did that with Adrian Beltre.

      2. Simply put, Pivetta has better stuff.

        Leiter is a BP hand. You can throw Efflin into the BP too. His chronic knee issues are performance prohibitive as a starter.

        1. So what you’re saying is that even though Leiter is busting his butt out there, keeping the Phillies in games, it doesn’t matter since Pivetta (who has had one of the worst Phillies seasons ever as a starter) has a better fastball? Just trying to understand your mindset.

        2. Leiter seems to be a pitcher in the truest sense..
          He uses six pitches:
          A. 4 FBs…..4Smr, 2Smr, Spliter and at times a Cutter
          B. Slider
          C. Curve
          But no change-up this season.
          I think if he can master a serviceable change-up he could keep lefties off-balance even more.
          But his poise and moxie are noteworthy.
          Just do not understand why his minor league metrics were not better however?

          1. In the minors, the pitchers are working on stuff. For example, with Sixto, the Phillies are forcing him to use his secondary pitches more. So his numbers may not be a true indication of his ability.

            Either way, Leiter is getting it done now. I’m hopeful he could be another Marco Estrada, another pitcher who has found some success with lower velocity and good secondary pitches (nasty change up).

            1. His splitter is used 25-30% of the time as his out pitch.
              I think in the long run, using that less, maybe 15%, and incorporating a change-up, may lessen the impact on his arm.
              Mo….,,,RHBs……LHBs
              4/17…..0.000…..0.000
              5/17…..0.133…..0.192
              6/17…..0.250…..0.222
              7/17…..0.231…..0.333
              8/17…..0.156…..0.270
              and right now left hand batters , naturally have hit him better
              But so far it has worked, so I guess he is not worried about it.

  54. anyone else over seeing guys get drilled in the head with 90+ MPH? I’m calling for immediate ejection and suspension.

    Not talking about taking away plunking a guy just the head….

    1. It’s total bush league. Guys have died from taking balls to the head. The problem here is proving intent. That’s why pitchers always are conditioned to say that the ball got away from them. Hamels got suspended 5 games for admitting he threw at Harper. If the pitcher admitted he threw at somebody’s head, not only would he lose total respect across baseball, he would likely get the largest non-drug related suspension ever.

    2. I’m all for the brush back pitch but beaning a guy in the head as part of a tit for tat should be a 162 game suspension. Cabrera and Sucker Puncher Sanchez should also be suspended for the remainder of the season. Unfortunately they are stars so it will not happen so retaliatory beaning will continue.

      1. The only thing missing from the Yankees-Tiger brawl yesterday, was the goalies coming out a duking it out. 🙂

      2. Cabrera should go on tv with his best Pedro impression: “Austin Romine, who’s Austin Romine? I have no respect for that guy. I don’t have anything to prove to that guy. He needs to be forcing himself to come up to where I am, to my level.”

    3. I would like to see the pitchers who hit batters and cause broken bones and concussions to be suspended for as long as that player is out of action. Also, ban pitchers who injure someone three times for a definite period of time. Maybe this will stop the brawls in baseball.

  55. Wow, Mackanin moved Nicky Dubs back to his RF spot. That’s how bad he was defensively in CF.

  57. Shout out to Adam Morgan who is now flashing dominant stuff out of the bullpen. The career path of a pitcher can be odd and winding. After a shoulder injury and an extended try as a starter Morgan, who had average velocity as a starter, is showing plus stuff out of the pen. I was at the game last night and he blew me (and Cubs hitters) away. You go dude!!!

    1. Agree that Adam Morgan is doing great out of the bullpen. It is a shame that he hurt his shoulder as he was just about to make it to the Phillies as a starter.

  58. Hinkie/KuKo:
    Looks like some other teams are lining up for Otani.
    Int’l money additions:
    Jon Heyman reports as of today.
    Yankees-$8M
    Red Sox—$8M
    Rangers –$6.75M
    Braves –$6M
    Dodgers—$5.75M
    Mets-$5.75M

    1. Looks like a lot of teams have the same idea. Acquire as much J2 money as possible. However, Heyman doesn’t break down how much money each of these clubs have earmarked for J2 16 YO’s already signed or waiting to sign (when they reach 16 YO).

      1. Hinkie…that is correct.
        The Yankees, alone have already earmarked for J2-‘17-‘18 high dollar guys like:
        Everson Pereira-$1.5M
        Ronny Rojas- est >$1M
        Roberto Chirinos-$900K
        Anthony Garcia-$450K
        So those four alone have taken almost 1/2 of their total allotment.

        The rest will command a grand total perhaps of another $1M or a little above that.:
        Stanley Rosario, of, Dominican Republic, $300,000.
        Miguel Marte, ss, Dominican Republic, $200,000.
        Albert Vega, rhp, Dominican Republic, $100,000.
        Enyerberth Ascanio, c, Venezuela
        Nelson Medina, cf, Dominican Republic
        Ezequiel Duran, ss, Dominican Republic
        Jose Martinez, 3b, Dominican Republic
        Yordy Nunez, rhp, Dominican Republic
        ………..so I do not see them having enough in the Otani sweepstakes if he declares this winter.

  59. Off the top of my head … today’s performance was the Phillies biggest win of the season. Pivetta and the offense bounce back from a dismal 1st inning against the reigning WS champions. Their two youngest players (Williams and Hoskins) homer. And that triple play was the icing on the cake !!!!!

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