2017 Post Draft Discussion; June 25, 2017

This is a continuation of the 2017 First Year Player Draft thread so we can consolidate all of our draft talk.  I will continue to look here for any information on signings that you find.  If you hear one of our new prospects has signed, please share the link here.

The Phillies have signed 8 of their top 10 draft picks, and #5, Ethan Lindow is in town and his signing should be announced soon.  Only #6 Dalton Guthrie remains unsigned, but the Florida shortstop’s team is still playing in the CWS.

The Phillies have signed 16 more players from #11 to #33.  Three others in that group have strong college commitment and will likely attend college – #20 Brady Schanuel (Iowa), #23 Shane Drohan (FSU), and #33 Bill Sullivan (DE).

Those still not signed among that group are #13 Colby Fitch (C, JR, Louisville), #26 Quincy Nieporte (1B, SR, FSU), #29 Baiuley Cummings (RHP, J1, SanJacinto), #30 Matt Kroon (3B, J2, Central Arizona).

No one below #33 has signed.  #35 Brian Morrell has a strong ND commitment.

The slot money for #5 and #6 plus the 5% overage before penalties comes to slightly under $1.1 M.  Of course any bonuses over $125K for picks below #12 have not been reported or added to the tracker.  So, based on the information available, if the remaining two picks sign at their slot value, the Phillies would still have $476,955 to go over the maximum for picks below #10.  That means they could offer up to $601,955 to entice someone to sign.

This and other draft information has been added to our 2017 Draft Tracker. As more signings are announced, the tracker will be updated.  Be sure to share any information and I will incorporate it into the tracker.

Of course, all draft talk is encouraged here.  I will start new threads if/when the number of comments becomes too unwieldy.

 

 

83 thoughts on “2017 Post Draft Discussion; June 25, 2017

  1. I’m not expecting Kyle Hurt (USC commit) to sign, but that kid has been incredibly quiet on social media. I haven’t even been able to find a post-draft newspaper interview with him.

  2. as the Braves are in the same division and also rebuilding, I often look at what they are doing in comparison to Phils. I know others have commented here about some of their aggressive moves the last couple seasons. Looks like they feel they have enough depth where they really focused their entire draft on 3-4 guys.
    They signed Kyle Wright for 7 mil, the two high school kids they took next for about 1.5 mil each and a 4th round JC pitcher for 400k. by my calcs that left them with under 30k of pool (plus 5% excess) to sign rounds 4-10 and any post round 10 players over the 125. The 6 through 10 senior signs were all for 1 to 5k, leaving them with about 12k left for their 5th round senior who is yet to sign.
    Definitely an interesting strategy. Still a little surprised MLB didnt do something to limit the tiny senior sign bonuses in some reasonable way.

  3. I’m not too pleased if we don’t sign any of these later HS seniors. I see almost no high upside guys in the draft. Good drafts have mixes of projectionable college players and high risk high upside HS guys. Why can’t we have a little of both? The last time we did this was the Nola draft and aside from him and Hoskins, it was straight up garbage.

    1. Drew Anderson was one of those HSers in 2012.
      And agree…..the Phillies need to be able to sign a few of them…but Hurt and Drohan are two that would appear to be college bound right now

        1. I assume Hurt will head for USC.
          The January knee injury is behind him now so USC fall ball will be up next for him .

  4. So much for the possibility of aggressive placements. Haseley to the GCL. Really? Nobody placed higher than Williamsport. There are a few left to assign, and not may post-draft releases just yet, but Haseley was definitely the best candidate to be placed in Lakewood or Clearwater.

    1. I had assumed it would be the NYPL to start.
      He actually also would be one of the oldest, if not the oldest of their starting eight.

        1. I’m guessing CLW is going to be Hasely’s assignment. He’s obviously way advanced for GCL and if WPT or LKW was going to be the assignment they would have sent him to either of those clubs right after he signed.

          A few games in GCL to get acclimated and then he’s ready to go. If I had a bet.

  5. That Dalton Guthrie is one tough kid. It would be great if he could hit enough to some day get to MLB. A middle infield of him and Kingery would be great to watch.

  6. Wow B Singer for Florida pitch A great game last night. He might be my 1:1 next yr. He looks 15 but wow 1 & 2 1 out he throws 7 sliders for 2 k’s . His 2 Fb have break best thing he command & control are great. He looks like degrom he has to gain wait . he broke a record with 12 k’s against a veteran bunch in LSU.

    1. Tim…..MLB’s Jim Callis’ Early Bird Top Ten…MLB 2018 Draft:

      1. Brice Turang, SS, Santiago HS (Corona, Calif.)
      2. Brady Singer, RHP, Florida
      3. Jarred Kelenic, OF, Waukesha (Wis.) West HS
      4. Kumar Rocker, RHP, North Oconee HS (Bogart, Ga.)
      5.Joe Gray Jr. OF, Hattiesburg (Miss.) HS
      6. Seth Beer, 1B, Clemson
      7. Tristan Casas, 1B/3B, American Heritage HS (Plantation, Fla.)
      8. Luken Baker, 1B, Texas Christian
      9. Konnor Pilkington, LHP, Mississippi State
      10. Nick Madrigal, 2B/SS, Oregon State

        1. 8mark… IMO, .if Beer cannot play an OF corner, they will probably not draft him.
          Phillies should get a top three pick if Padres and Giants do not totally collapse worst then them. The twins who took Gordon in ’14 like Phillies did with JPC in ’13, then this year went with Lewis another ss…..I am wondering if the Phillies will do something similar and go for the ss like Brice Truang. Gordon has slowly progressed and currently sits in AA ball.

          1. Again, Lewis is not locked in at SS. He can maybe play any OF position. In fact, many services project him as an OF.

      1. Wis has a guy in the 3 that has to be a first. Know what Beer team mate a guy named Donaldson my be 1.1 2019.

        1. Tiim …hah…not Doanldson….but Davidson….Phillies drafted him last year in the 30th round …. he was NC HS player of the year and committed to Clemson..

  7. did I miss a weekly update? How did the Puk’s latest outing go??

    In the spirit of looking back at the 2016 draft. I see he had the following:
    1/3 of an inning
    3 hits
    4 earned
    3 bb..

    but he did strike out that one batter…

    1. He had a bad start in AA.

      Are we allowed to talk about him in here though?

      Last week all the sanctimonious posters told me not to post about Puk in here anymore….

      1. Yea, I know. I was just having some fun with it. I personally wasn’t opposed to them drafting Puk last year but it will be 4-5 years before we know which was the right decision based on the difference in ages and experience (college vs. HS) between Puk and Moniak..

    2. I will be happy to post weekly Puk updates from here on. You asked for it, you shall receive. But please don’t start crying again about how mean I am for posting that I thought they should have taken Puk….

      1. What I don’t get is Puk wasn’t drafted 1:2 1:3 1:4 1:5 so 4 more teams passed on him. Also he should be compared to other high ranked pitchers drafted last yr. Cal Qauntrill , Eric Lauer, Dana Dunning , Alec Hanson etc. Mickey Mo you compare him to other hs CF. Here’s the thing the Phillies also received Gowdy because Mickey Mo took a discount . Several other selects were also help by Mickey Mo taking less then he could. The Phillies took other LHP Klye Young is a 7 footer , Romero, Irvin, last yr . They selected 5 lhp this yr that seems to be there motto , if they hit with 2 or 3 of these pitchers great .. now if Puk becomes a 3 time 20 game winner or wins a CY young or 2 then 4 teams misted maybe . Really if depends on what the top 5 drafts picks do pro career wise.

  8. The Phils signed Haseley for $5.1M while Baz signed for $4.1M – that $1M could have been a good leverage to sign either Drohan or Hurt (of any late round HS or JuCo) out of their college commitment.

    1. KuKo…agree…..I thought Haseley could be had for max $4.5M under with he added $200K for some HSer later on…they were able to do a lot of unders with many of their top ten….except their first.

    2. KuKo … In theory you’re right. However, the reality is Baz would have wanted full slot (4.78 million) if the Phillies had drafted him at 1-8. That said, I would have still picked Baz and it would have saved the Phillies 320-thousand dollars. That would have probably been enough to get both Billy Sullivan and Brady Shanuel signed.

  9. Hats off to Dalton Guthrie becoming CWS Champ. He had a heck of a season I hope we get him signed…

  10. We’re tied with SF in the loss column with 4 games in hand, in danger of losing the #1 pick….

    1. That is troubling….but Bumgarner could be back for them…unless they also feel like sacrificing today towards logistically positioning themselves for a more beneficial future return…or tanking.

      1. bumgarner coming back, but will trade some pieces away, and not much there to bring up that could help them compared to Phils. Seeing Tyler Beede is getting beaten up, albeit in the PCL. The Giants have gotten bad more quickly than the Phils did- such a bad offense. Seeing Jeff Samardzija has 117/13 k/bb for season, but a 3-9 record.

    2. I’d worry more about the Padres and Reds out-tanking the Phillies before I worried about the Giants landing the 1-1 pick.

      1. Padres and Gianst still have nine games left vs each other, with the last three games of the year, so there is some solace in that they could both beat each other out by winning.

  11. Well the teams that are now selling or going to sell will! Become lesser teams. The Mets , marlins , And the Braves all unload. The Phillies will win more games. You take Jay Bruce ,Cabrera already asked to be traded. Plus Grandson, Neil Walker,Jose Reyes and Duda that’s a Hugh game changer . Pitching they already have Addison Reed ,Sales, Harvey on the block. the Marlin s are unloading there bullpen plus Prado , Bour . The Braves have Garcia ,J Johnson , Motte, B Phillips,Kemp that’s a lot of talent not going to be going against the Phillies.

      1. Mark my words Tojo will be a Philly come Sept 1 . The Phillies will gain 8’spots in the standing .

  12. I was just about to ask about Fitch…could Phils be waiting on Guyhrie to see how much they can off Fitch?

  13. I think teams have a pretty good idea of what it takes to sign all of their top 10 picks before they draft them. I’d bet Guthrie gets the same bonus Nick Maton got … 353-thousand dollars (which is the Phillies 5th round slot). Guthrie (6th round) and Maton (7th round) are both SS’s. Maton was picked one round later, but has a little more negotiating leverage because he is a JC2 player. The guy that interests me is 5th rounder, HSLHP Ethan Lindow. I don’t know exactly what he will get, but I feel it won’t be too much less than, or greater than his slot (353-thousand dollars). Probably between 300 and 400 thousand dollars.
    As far as Fitch goes … he may just be talking things over with his family and advisor. If the Phillies went 250-thousand for Parkinson, you can assume Fitch probably wants something close to that. It’s always risky business for college players to turn down reasonable offers and return for their senior seasons because they will have absolutely no leverage in their senior draft.

    1. If things do play out as I mentioned above:
      Lindow – roughly 400-thousand
      Guthrie – roughly 350-thousand
      Fitch – roughly 250-thousand
      That would leave the Phillies with around 100-thousand dollars. That’s probably the amount (225-thousand) it took to sign Ben Brown. That’s the same bonus Kyle Young got last year.

      End of 2018 draft !

      1. Hinkie…have to assume Lindow will be a signee soon.
        His twitter account has Phillies logos and references inundated with it.

    2. Guthrie will probably sign for more than Nick Maton as the Phillies may just signed him as a replacement for Freddie Galvis or JP Crawford. Guthrie is a very great fielder and a good hitter with a good eye. Would not be surprised if his College WS title bumps up his signing bonus.

      1. philabaltfan….from the bat aspect….Guthrie’s three year slash is very pedestrian…289/.360/722….low ISO
        And his last year it did not really excite……..273/349/705..even surrounded by quite a bit of talent on the Gators.

        1. i can see him taking 300k or even slot- he won the national title and might not want to take risk of being a senior sign next year.
          for what its worth, similarly rated ODU SS picked a few slots before signed for slightly below slot, similarly rated Louisville SS taken with selection after Guthrie, hasnt signed yet.

          1. $300K would be about right…a little over slotted.
            Though his bat doesn’t have ISO strength, he does have a good eye with a very good OBP….and of course his glove is plus.
            And the Phillies thought high enough of him to make him a 6th round pick, so they may know more than the casual metric observer.

  14. I would be very interested in seeing a multi-year study of drafted players who turned down a bonus to go to college, and their percentage of how many of them received higher than 100K (or whatever their slot value was) when they became eligible.

    I imagine the percentage would be miniscule. I think these kids are making bad decisions when they turn down that money, but I’d like to see some data either in support or against that hypothesis.

    1. Rei…the Philies had two in ’13.. Ben Holmes (5th) and Jason Monda (6th)….not sure whatever happened to them…..but there were the other issues that occurred with them…..but still they refused to sign.

    2. I know one who is starting centerfielder for Milwaukee. brewers. Johnny coy another is coaching high school, never got drafted after high school I believe. Steve garvey kid was another. biggio is hitting 250 at high a and is 22.

    3. might be harder to look at that now with almost all picks through round 10 signing, and not being sure of the $ offers being turned down after round 10, but below is from a few years ago looking at the subject.
      by the way, do these kids get these signing bonuses in one lump sum and get taxed on it all at once, rather than having it spread out over a few years and lowering some of the tax impact?
      http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20903

      1. Thanks for that article. It did ignore what I thought was the most critical scenario, where the player didn’t even get drafted a second time, which I’m sure happens a substantial amount of the time.

        1. not exactly what you were looking for, but i took a look at the top 150 draft prospects on mlb site for the 2014 draft, and found 24 high school players who went to college.
          of those, 8 just got drafted rounds 1/2 (haseley, pavin smith, canning, kendall, houck, peterson, Deichmann, bukauskas), so a 33% full success rate
          2 guys were drafted rounds 6-10 in future drafts (inlcuding tcu’s evan scoug this draft),
          6 more were drafted after round 10 in future years
          8 were undrafted this year.

    1. that’s a little disappointing; alot more over slot than they had to go for Falter a couple years ago.
      ties him with Brendan Murphy for 12th highest bonus of any lefty in the draft, pending any large post round 10 signings.
      not much $ left after that.

    2. The Lindow bonus is what is probably holding up the Fitch signing. This means either Guthrie is not getting over slot money or Fitch is not getting over slot. I’m assuming Brown got the same 225 thousand dollar bonus that Young got last year.

      1. My bad. Only 100-thousand of Brown’s 225-thousand dollar bonus (I’m assuming this what he is getting) counts towards the Phillies overall pool. That would leave nearly 500-thousand dollars left for the Phillies to spend. If Guthrie gets 353-thousand, Fitch could still get 250-thousand dollars (125-thousand pool dollars).

  15. My question is this: did the Phillies assume Adam Haseley would sign for less when they drafted him? And if they knew he was asking for more than slot, did they keep the same draft strategy ( heavy college picks early and high school players late) knowing that they may not have enough money to sign them away from college? It seems last year Moniak was picked as much for his talent as his willingness to sign underslot. This year, it seems some college players are signing over slot, thereby hurting the Phillies in the later rounds.

    1. Since the top ten picks/rounds are were finances can be manueverd for more flexibilty adn added money for later round picks, only two of the eight college guys drafted in top ten rounds signed over slotted…Haseley and Moton. Approx $650 over.
      They seem to maneuver the remaining draft well.

      1. That’s because they were able to get the LA kid, and the two college SRs on the cheap. They won’t be able to lure any JC player away, nor any high school players after the 11th Rd. They were able to get Brown, but they won’t be able to buy any other player out of their college commitment.

        1. I do not think they ever seriously thought Drohan, Morrell or Hurt would be players who would forsake their D1 commitments to top colleges.

  16. Just read on Gators.com that Dalton Guthrie will sign with the Phillies but don’t know the dollar amount. Now our top ten is signed so the excess can go to the harder signees. Good luck to all the young men.

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