2017 Draft Discussion: Day Three

Here’s the thread to continue talking about the 2017 First Year Player Draft.

With the 3:83 pick, the Phillies selected RHP Connor Seabold, Cal State Fullerton 

Seabold went 11-5, 3.01 during the season.  He struck out 120 and walked 22 in 122.2 innings. He is known for his command much like former Titan team mate Tom Eshelman. Here is some insight into the young man in an Orange County Register article.

With the 4:113 pick, the Phillies selected 3B Jake Scheiner, Houston

Scheiner slashed .346/.432/.667 with 18 HR and 64 RBI in 275 PA.  He was the was the AAC’s Player of the Year.  The following is excerpted from his Houston player bio – 

SANTA ROSA JUNIOR COLLEGE – Played two seasons at Santa Rosa JC…Led team to a League and State Championship in 2016…Named the Big 8 MVP… Selected as the NorCal Player of the Year…Earned First Team All-American honors as well as State Championship MVP honors.

HIGH SCHOOL
Was a four-year letterwinner for the Maria Carrillo Pumas High School…Named First Team All-Empire in 2014…Was a two-time First Team All-League performer in 2012 and 2013…Also played basketball.

With the 5:143 pick, the Phillies selected LHP Ethan Lindow, Locust Grove HS (GA)

Lindow posted an 0.97 ERA in 57.2 innings with 97 strikeouts and 18 walks. He has a low 90s FB.  He was named him to the state’s Class 5-A All-State team.  Here’s a story from the local paper the Henry Herald.

With the 6:173 pick, the Phillies selected SS Dalton Guthrie, Florida

Guthrie was selected to the SEC all defensive team for the second time.  He hit .271 with with a .349 OBP.  He lost ABs to an injury (foot) but has returned for the CWS.  His father is former MLB pitcher Mark Guthrie.  Here’s an article from an SEC/Florida site.

With the 7:203 pick, the Phillies selected SS Nick Maton, Lincoln Land CC (IL)

Maton slashed .408/.507/.722 in his one year at Lincoln.  He transferred from Division I Eastern Illinois after his freshman year where he batted .299 and was named to the Ohio Valley Conference all-freshman team.  More from the State Journal-Register.

 

With the 8:233 pick, the Phillies selected LHP Jhordany Mezquita, Hazelton HS (PA)

LHP Jhordany Mezquita was #65 on the 2017 Phillies Minor League Extended Spring Training Roster on 4/10/2017.  He is 19-years old and throws in the low 90s.  Per Keith Law on Twitter, “The Phillies’ 8th round pick, Jhordany Mezquita, is from the DR; when the Phillies wanted to sign him as an international free agent, they learned he was draft eligible because he’d gone to HS in New Jersey.”

With the 9:263 pick, the Phillies selected 3B Jack Zoellner, New Mexico

Zoellner slashed .368/.470/.663 slugging percentage with 12 HR and 56 RBI.  He walked (37) more then he struck out (26).  He suffered a broken hand in May.  Here’s an article from the Albuquerque Journal.

With the 10:293 pick the Phillies selected RHP Connor Brogdon, Lewis-Clark State (ID)

Brogdon went 8-1, 2.91 in 15 games (12 starts).  He pitched 80.1 innings, allowed 25 walks, and struck out 99.  Opponents only hit .219 against him.   Here is an article from The Official Website of Lewis-Clark Warrior Athletics.

The Phillies’ selections are being tracked in our 2017 Draft Tracker.

Rounds 11-40 will conclude today on MLB.com with the 11th round starting at noon.

The draft tracker and the daily draft discussions will be included under “2017 Draft Discussions and Picks” selection on the menu under “The Draft”.

 

 

101 thoughts on “2017 Draft Discussion: Day Three

  1. Lots of college players this year. I like the pitchers with control who throw in the mid 90s. Seems like a bland draft but it could restock the upper part of the farm and maybe allow some guys to be trade bait for a TOR pitcher. Interested to see what transpires today. I’ve seen mixed reviews from other posters but really haven’t seen any draft grades, if anyone wants to pass those along..

    1. If you can throw in the mid 90s with command, you’ll go in the top 15 picks of the first round.

    2. too bad these type of pitchers are very hard to find. I don’t see that the Phillies found one of these the 1st 2 days of the draft..

  2. The team seems to be trying to add 3rd basemen to the organization an area where they have been thin at.

    1. ….and short stops.
      1 OFs
      2 SS
      2 3b
      2 LHPs
      3 RHPs
      With the exception of Haseley, that pretty much tells the tale on the organization’s depth.

      1. Yes. The Phillies of course have Crawford and Canelo in the upper levels but then not much until a lot of 17 year old shortstops from the DR or Venezuela, some of whom will move to other positions. They need SS in the pipeline their early 20s should Crawford not make it.

        1. The other thing here is that if you are a shortstop, you likely have the defensive ability to play just about anywhere. Absent any facts, I would surmise that most righty position high-school players played SS. You can go from SS to second or third or outfield. The reverse is typically not the case

          1. So is Canelo – he has a much larger upside than you would expect. There’s some surprising quick-twitch power buried in that thin body. He’s very interesting.

  3. Only two high school players in the first ten picks. The 9th and 10th round picks look to be college seniors (who normally come cheap), so the Phillies could save a little bonus pool money there (maybe $250k). I’d be surprised if Haseley signs for significantly less than his slot value ($4,780,400).

    And I get that the BA and MLB rankings are far from perfect, but the disparity between the draftee rankings and where the Phillies selected them is rather striking (and not in a good way).

    1. i Was looking for saving in first ten picks. With jr isnt it hard to get them to go lower? i only saw the two picks you did as maybe 5000 signings guys, save us little i would think, unless they have deals in place with some of these kids to save more

      1. Agree; don’t see much potential for significant bonus pool savings, unless the Phillies can sign Haseley for around $4M or so. That would leave enough to maybe make a serious run for an over-slot guy. However, I tend to doubt that Haseley would agree to such a deal, and historically the Phillies most always pay pretty close to slot value in these situations.

        1. Though Moniak took a rather substantial cut/savings last year from his slot.
          I do think Haseley would be willing to go $4M, or even less, maybe $3.75M as a college guy.
          But looking at the draft, who will the Phillies be willing to sign over-slot.
          I could see if someone like jake Eder was selected at the 45th, like they did last year with Gowdy…..but it is all college mostly

  4. It seem like some of the teams did the same thing. The yanks,Sox,Dodgers all did the same thing. Heavy college lite on his,plenty of arms left.

  5. i think last year we were mostly excited with Moniak, Gowdy and Stobbe…This year seems underwhelming. personally i dont know anything about any of these guys…just not same buzz as last year. i know we picked first last year and that has something to do with it. good thing we are picking ! next year lol

    1. I think that is partly because we have hyped ourselves into believing that we were going to select a power hitter (i.e. Smith) that was 1 or 2 years from the majors and in actuality the brain trusts (Phillies) essentially picked the same types that they did last year.

          1. No, I don’t have to read it again. You specified Smith with the Latin id est, “that is”. That does not mean any power hitter, it means a specific power hitter, in this case the Smith you mentioned.

  6. I’m a big fan of Seabold. Yes, he doesn’t throw hard, but his control is as good as you’ll get for a 3rd round pick. Think Tom Eshelman when discussing Seabold. You can never go wrong with a college starter with pinpoint control. Location…location…location lol. His ceiling is an easy 3-4 starter

        1. Ugh, that not so good and screams AAAA or long reliever, unless he has some nasty secondary stuff
          But hopefully he ends up as a starter and performs.

          1. MLB had has velo up to 92-94 near the end of the year, which I find a bit puzzling after a long season.of over 100 innings pitched and his whiff ratio declined..
            Eric Longenhagen of Fansgraph had him at upper80s, tick low 90s.
            But his control is 65-plus-plus and command woukld appear to be above average.
            So another mid-to-back of rotation guy to add to the crowded mix already.

    1. That would be the tendency with the entire starting staff. Plus they have guys like this in spades in the minor leagues. Guys that don’t throw hard ,but “know how to pitch”. How’s that working out for them?
      Boy,the scouts in this organization have, none,zero,zilch originality.

      1. Worst record in baseball 2 out the last 3 years so that’s how it’s working,
        They should have tested there luck with BAZ

        1. Agree….gamble with Baz.
          But I have another reason….if they get the first pick next year….and if Seth Beer is still the hitter he is today….then he has to be taken at one……best hitter to come out since Harper in 2010. Unless there is a no doubt pitcher up there also.
          Beer, L/L, is a first baseman and corner OFer. That is now getting crowded with so many MLB ready players at those positions.

  7. I like the Guthrie pick, but he’s a defense-only SS. I would rather have seen the Phillies go after a kid with a strong college commit and roll the dice.

  8. would be interesting to know what guys they targeted that they just missed out on.
    In 4th round, i noticed Will Toffey, the Vandy third baseman, got picked 2 slots ahead of Scheiner, and has the approach at the plate they are looking for (354-12-64 with 48 bb vs 30k this year). do they still pick Scheiner if Toffey is there?

  9. I am repeatedly jealous of how the Braves acquire talent – in trades and the draft and international.
    While I get a bit disappointed that the Phillies drafted so many non-ranked players, …I realized last night that the Braves did the same thing. ONLY the Braves 1st & 2nd Round picks had a ranking on mlb. The Phils 1st, 2nd, 3rd, & 6th were ranked.
    In fact, several orgs I respect drafted mostly non-ranked players like the Phils. Just fyi.

    1. JohnK…yes
      Yankees, for one, are not getting a lot of praise on their Clarke Schmidt draft at one. Drafting an injured player does that to the fan base. But once healthy he could be a steal.

    2. i agree with you. I checked other teams who are known for strong drafts and they all did what the Phillies did. In fact, it might drive the scouts at BA and MLB a little wacky because so many teams took “fliers” on completely “unknown” talent. Maybe the reality of this draft is that – it just did not have alot of strong candidates in it – and many of the high schoolers are strongly committed to college programs. So sorry for Scott Boras……

  10. Haseley seems to be a solid pick as he was ranked high enough to be the #8 pick. The others are probably under slot signees for the most part but there were several interesting picks on day 2 some with upside. Day 3 will probably show a couple of surprises if we read between the lines some.

    1. I doubt that picks 2 thru 10 will be under slot for the most part, as only the 9th and 10th picks are college seniors. I expect the first selections to get slot or darn close to it. Maybe the Phillies have something worked out with Haseley for an under slot deal, though I’m skeptical about that.

  11. I’m off the Johnny Almarez bandwagon. This draft has been an absolute dud. I understand the Haseley pick. Fast moving college bat; could see his bat even improve as he gives up pitching. That said … Shane Baz would have been the better pick. 17 year old pitchers with that kind of ceiling don’t grow on trees. The second round pick (Spencer Howard) is a complete disappointment with kids like Mark Vientos (I would have drafted him), Quentin Holmes, Blayne Enlow (would have thought long and hard about taking him), and even Hans Crouse all available. After Haseley, this crop of prospects looks like a collection of back end starters/relief pitchers and bench players (although I do have some hope for Jake Sheiner).
    Hopefully, they’ve drafted enough low end prospects to have saved enough money to draft a high ceiling HS player like Garret Mitchell, Tommy Mace, or Hugh Fisher.
    For round 11 … I hope Almarez picks Hard throwing Bryce Montes de Oca.

    1. Hans Crouse has a big arm, but he is sort of a max effort guy and has quite a funky delivery and arm slot. Lots of risk there, and I don’t mind the Phillies staying away.

  12. Good start to day 3 with 11th round pick Jake Holmes. Don’t think he stays at SS but like the overall scouting report. Looks like first real upside pick and I expect they will need to overpay slot $$ to get him to sign.

    1. I think that the Phils got their Jakes confused and meant to take this guy in the 4th round

  13. HS SS Jake Holmes Phillies 11th round pick. Big kid (6’4″ 195 lbs), will probably eventually end up at third base.

    1. It seems in the last few years that the picks don’t get really exciting until like 10-13, which is kind of cool but very weird.

  14. The Phils missed out on plenty of talent. Gavin Sheets, Sam Carlson, Corbin Martin, Mark Vientos

  15. Excellent excellent start to Day 3. Will have to go over slot for Holmes and Parkinson but Phils should be able to get them signed. Holmes pick was huge.

  16. 14th round Zach Warren LHP from Tennessee, 6′ 5″, struggled this year, was 64th rated prospect going into the season, ended up in the Vols pen. Grew up in South Jersey, went to St Augustine Prep.

    1. Fun fact … Mike Trout was actually born in Vineland. His family moved to Millville when he was young. And, of course, Don Money is also a Vineland resident.

      1. I think you found him, MLB listed him from previous school, stats from previous year look similar to what I found on him.

      1. Thanks for that info. Montes de Oca was a very highly regarded pitcher in HS, but blew out his arm and opted for college.

  17. the Phils are drafting LHP almost every other round in Day 3 – 4 LHP from Rd to Rd 18 and 2 more from Day 2.

    1. Since they’re going wild for LHP today. The Phillies ought to take a flyer on Eli Lingos. He was pretty good as a frosh. He’s been bad the last two years. He works out of the pen with a very funky delivery. Batters see his back while he is on the mound.

      1. yeah, he got a funky start up. nobody in 1B will dare to attempt to steal 2B with him in the mound.

  18. And they look like they will all be RP……Adam Morgan is the only LHP on the 40 man roster after JR was dealt to Texas.

  19. 20th round Brady Schanuel Parkland College (J2) RHP
    21st round Jacob Hernandez Texas Arlington LHP 6’4″ 275lbs WOW!

  20. meanwhile, the Pirates apparenlty made the supposedly tough sign Shane Baz an offer he couldnt refuse.
    from the looks of the rest of their draft, doesnt seem like they could go too crazy above the 4 million slot- certainly not over the Phils #8 slot it it would seem.

    1. Hey but the Phillies drafted some good control pitchers ought a lot right in there as the only team with 5 numbers fours
      Excitement !!

  21. Jakob Hernandez (21st round) is an interesting kid. Big LHP (6’4″ 260) one season at Texas Arlington: 79.2 IP, 79 H, 35 BB, 89 K. However, he was JC stud the previous two seasons. From his bio:

    Played at Seward County … Earned third-team All-America honors … Won the Jayhawk Conference triple crown with a 10-3 record, a 2.33 ERA and 159 strikeouts … Won the national strikeout crown in junior college baseball by 23 punchouts, despite pitching 10 less innings than eight of 10 leaders in the category … His 159 strikeouts were the second-most by any NJCAA pitcher in the last 15 years, topped only by Phil Bickford, a 2015 first-round pick in the MLB Draft … Named Jayhawk Conference Pitcher of the Week four times in 2016 … Averaged nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings as a freshman in 2015 over a team-leading 18 outings … Didn’t allow a run in his final 18.1 innings as a freshman, leading the Saints to the conference western division title.

  22. Both the Mets and Sox started their picks Conforto (PAC12) and Benintendi (SEC) right after they signed in short-season ball in the NYPL…and both pretty much raked.
    Will be interested to see where the Phillies start Haseley.

    1. I saw Benintendi play with the Lowell Spinners right after he was drafted – great venue in the Red Sox – crazed region to showcase your new guy. I’m not sure Williamsport provides that. Haseley may be better off at Lakewood.

      I am hopeful for the Benintendi comp though, as opposed to a Steve Susdorf.

  23. 23rd round hs LHP Shane Drouhan son of MLB player. MLB rated as #80. Projected 3rd or 4th rounder with Florida St commitment, former QB with a low 90s fastball and curve ball. very interesting pick.

      1. Agree…..unsignable …if he was taken on the first day at two, or second day at 3 or 4 yes….then he could be signed.
        Makes no sense now with this pick….SEC future pitcher ….maybe Friday night starter.
        He is not Nick Fanti or Kyle Young with college offers form scj=hools like Hofstra and the like.

        1. if my math is correct, the Phils can save around $900-950k from their Top 10 picks. Add the 5% (subject to luxury tax) ceiling of $437k for a potential bonus pool of about $1.35M (up to $1.4M). I believe only signings in excess of $100k are to be charged against the available pool $$. if the overslot signees will sign (approx) bonus based on their national rankings – Drohan will be $700k (equivalent to #80 pick), Holmes $400k, Parkinson $350k and Fitch $350k for a total of $1.8M of $1.4M charged against the available pool. It is close, but I can see the Phils sign 3 if not 4 of the potential Day 3 over slot signees.

          Jakob Hernadez and Bill Sullivan will be offered $100k each to sign.

          1. Hope you are correct in your math….and that the players sign and forego college commitments.

            1. KuKo……who has more upside..Drouhan or Spencer Howard?
              They could have easily drafted Howard in the 3rd or 4th round since he was rated close to 100 by MLB, and saved that 45th slot and money for a guy like Drouhan and any 8 slot savings to the 45 guy…..they did it last year with Gowdy…why change that formula a year later? That one of the things that puzzles me about this draft.

            2. @romus – without considering the national rankings, Drohan appears to have the higher upside between the 2. Being 2 yrs younger and more athletic (2-sport athlete) his stuff can be better than Howard’s at the same age of 20. Drohan’s CU (projected as plus) separates him from Howard.

            1. at 28.833 pick looks like he will be a fall back option if some of the highly rate overslot signees will not sign.

            2. Let’s not forget how baseball scholarships work though. Teams get 11.7 full
              Scholarships to spread around an entire team. A lot of players do not get a full ride, although grants can help the gap. Some still need loans.

              MLB rules allow a team to sign a high schooler or college kid with eligibility and to reimburse them for future college credits. I believe they have until 6 years after they last play to continue being reimbursed.

              So getting $100k plus a future full ride can be much more appealing than accumulating thousands in debt.

            3. Flyby, D1 schools have 11.7 scholarships to distribute to 27 of the 35 players on their rosters. Partials can’t go lower than 25%. The players/parents I have spoken to down here have told me that they can take college courses while they are active, but if they choose to wait until they leave baseball, they must start school within 2 years of leaving baseball.

        2. Romus that statement you made, Not like offer was from hofstra. If a kid is offered a scholarship to florida which is expensive, Compared to other schools. Does he get the tuition money if he signs based on school tuition or a flat amount. Just wondering

          1. rocco….do not know what would go into the negotiations between HS kids and MLB teams when it come to college tuition reimbursements or monetary equivalencies.,
            But the above poster ‘flybynite’ does have the basic rationale based on future college credits and the I a sure the monetary value of the college credit.

  24. These are the guys we have to sign, and we should considering our picks 1-10. This seems like the 2nd 3rd day guy that we saved $$$ earlier for.

  25. A number on day 2 & 3 drafted that are rated fairly high. I imagine they hope to sign most of them knowing they may miss out on 1 or 2

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