2017 Sleeper and Breakout Selections – Final

We had 86 participants in the 2017 sleeper and break out prospects selection process this season, another big increase of  43% over 2016.  Once again, multiple selections increased the overall number of selections.  We had 106 break out picks and 114 sleeper picks.  (I wrote this back in January soon after I closed the poll.  I put it aside, intending to publish it in April, but forgot about it until I stumbled on it in my drafts folder.)

I closed the post to any further comments.  All entries have been entered into a Google spreadsheet – 2017 Break Out and Sleeper Prospects.  We actually had 89 responses but three were entered without explanation.  I tried to solicit clarification in the comment thread. I entered them on the spreadsheet in an Unknown column, but never received any further communication from each submitter.  And now for this year’s observations.

Thirty-three different prospects were selected as likely to have a breakout year.

“C” Randolph was far and away the prospect that people thought would have a break out year, selected by 21 people (20%).  There was a big drop off to Carlos Tocci (7) and Jhailyn Ortiz (6).

Fifty-one different players were projected to be sleepers this season.

Bailey Falter was again the leading candidate among respondents with 7 selections.  Cole Irvin logged five.

Eighteen players were selected to have both a break out season and be a sleeper.

I selected Franklyn Kilome as a break out player in Matt Winkelman’s poll, so I’ll stick with him here.  I missed badly with my sleeper pick last season when I selected a non-starting position player. This season, I think I’ll go with Nick Fanti.  He’s a pitcher we haven’t talked about much. Whether he’s a starter or reliever, I think he’ll get a reasonable number of appearances.

The original post from this point on was somewhat dated, so I decided to scrap it and provide some random observations and updates.  These are just from among your picks, so a guy like Damek Tomscha (.328/.405/.466) who is having a good season so far and wasn’t selected won’t get mentioned below.  Since a “sleeper” by definition is not expected to out perform his projections, I’m limiting my comments to break out selections for the most part.

Top vote recipients have had mixed results.

  • Cornelius Randolph (.197/.286/.344, 4 HR, 18 RBI, 27.1 % K%, 10.7% BB%) has to be considered a disappointment as a break out pick.
  •  Carlos Tocci (.327/.408/.416, 0 HR, 18 RBI, 13.1 K%, 7.7 BB%) has been impressive so far in Reading.
  •  Jhailyn Ortiz hasn’t begun playing in Williamsport, but has looked good in XST.

Others who have started strong and have sustained their starts are –

  • Scott Kingery – .287/.371/.607, 8 HR, 21 RBI, 20.6 K%, 10.6 BB%, 8 for 8 SB
  • Adonis Medina (1-2, 2.03), 3.2 BB9, 11.6 SO9 in 6 starts
  • Nick Pivetta (3-0, 0.95), 0.9 BB9, 11.4 SO9 in 3 starts before his call up to PHI
  • Daniel Brito – .281/.335/.384, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 23.1 K%, 6.3 BB%
  • Andrew Pullin – .328/.390/.609, 8 HR, 25 RBI, 16.3%, 7.8% BB%
  • Seranthony Dominguez (3-0, 2.02), 3.3 BB9, 11.4 SO9 in 6 starts/1 relief
  • Tom Eshelman (5-0, 2.05) 1.4 BB9, 6.1 SO9 in 5 starts across AA and AAA
  • Rhys Hoskins – .336/.427/.539, 9 HR, 28 RBI, 17.5 K%, 13.3 BB%
  • Malquin Canelo – .307/.418/.400, 0 HR, 8 RBI, 20.9 K%, 16.5 BB%
  • Ben Lively (4-1, 2.48), 1.2 BB9, 5.9 SO9 in 6 starts

Other good starts were turned in by –

  • Drew Anderson (3-0, 4.67), 2.3 BB9, 7.8 SO9
  • Mickey Moniak – .265/.315/.341, 0 HR, 15 RBI, 23.8 K%, 6.1 BB%
  • Sixto Sanchez (1-2, 3.70), 1.1 BB9, 10.4 SO9 in 6 starts
  • Franklyn Kilome (2-2, 3.68), 2.8 BB9, 9.2 SO9 in 6 starts
  • Brandon Leibrandt (3-1, 4.50), 2.1 BB9, 7.8 SO9 in 6 starts
  • Roman Quinn – .279/.338/.341, 0 HR, 8 RBI, 27.8 K%, 8.3 BB%, 8 of 12 SB
  • Cord Sandberg – .270/.321/.397, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 29.1 K%, 6.4 BB%

And some disappointments to varying degrees have to include –

  • J.P Crawford – .155/.279/.207, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 19.7 K%, 14.6%
  • Jose Pujols – .177/.221/.242, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 44.3 K%, 4.6 BB%
  • Alberto Tirado (2-2, 4.45), 5.7 BB9, 7.6 SO9 in 6 starts
  • Tyler Viza (1-3, 7.36), 2.8 BB9, 6.7 SO9 in 6 starts
  • Walding – .141/.291/.322, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 33.6 K%, 16.4 BB%
  • Mark Appel (2-2, 5.50), 4.5 BB9, 6.3 SO9 in 7 starts
  • Nick Williams – .256/.298/.380. 2 HR, 12 RBI, 31.8 K%, 3.8 BB%

Kevin Gowdy, Cole Stobbe, Jonathan Guzman, Rafael Marchan are still in XST.

Victor Arano has spent the season on the DL.

Aaron Altherr made the 25-man roster and is performing well for the Phillies.

Among the top vote recipients for sleeper

  • Bailey Falter (1-2, 4.35, 0.9 BB9, 7.3 SO9 in 6 starts) is pitching well in Lakewood
  • Cole Irvin (3-3, 1.70, 1.0 BB9, 6.6 SO9 in 6 starts) has pitched very well in Clearwater.

Notable non-selections for break out or sleeper were:

  • Jorge Alfaro (.297/.325/.441)
  • Jesen Therrien (1-1, 1.31, 1.3 BB9, 13.5 SO9, 7 saves)
  • Jeff Singer (2-1, 1.45, 3.9 BB9, 10.1 SO9, 9 saves) as a break out or sleeper.
  • Deivi Grullon (.291/.295/.418) has surprised with some early offense.
  • Darick Hall (.,261/.315/.341, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 24.7 K%, 6.5 BB%) is playing well after returning from an injury.
  • JoJo Romero (2-1, 2.20, 3.6 BB9, 9.9 SO9, in 6 starts), has looked good too.
  • Mauricio Llovera (1-0, 1.04, 4.2, 7.8 in 10 appearances) has pitched well and may move into Lakewood’s rotation if one of his team mates struggles.
  • But, heck most of the Lakewood staff is pitching well so far.
  • Arquimedes Gamboa (.280/.321/.400 in 25 AB) started out nicely then went down with an injury.
  • Down in XST, in addition to Ortiz, Kyle Young and Greg Pickett have looked good. Even Luis Encarnacion’s bat has shown a little life this spring.

Oh, and Nick Fanti (3-0, 1.53, 2.8 BB9, 8.9 SO9 in 6 starts)  looks good so far in the early going up in Lakewood.

I try to tweet during the Threshers games, but am limited to once per half-inning unless something monumental happens, and charting pitches is a major distraction.  And I tend to drift away from Twitter after the starter gets pulled.  But if you’re interested, I post as @jimpeyton19.


5 thoughts on “2017 Sleeper and Breakout Selections – Final

  1. Short season guys are at a bit of a disadvantage. They only get about 200 ABs. They’d have to hit .500 in those ABs to jump into the breakout category. I chose Marchan, so he starts at a distinct disadvantage. But if he hits .300 and show good catching skills, I’ll be very happy with my choice. Viza is my sleeper choice because we write him off every year and he just keeps getting better. So far this year, not so much, but this kid will keep plugging away. You might take a nap and wake up to find him kicking some butt.

    1. According to my recored, three guys picked Deivi Grullon as a sleeper – Puddinhead, SWFL Frank, and 3up3kkk.

      And, DMAR picked Mauricio Llovera and Lenin Rodriguez as sleepers.

  2. I don’t remember who I picked; I know I was going back and forth between a bunch of players for both categories.

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