Phuture Phillies 2017 Reader Top 30 Poll for #10

Dylan Cozens was your selection as the #9 prospect in the Phillies’ organization. Hoskins won handily with 142 votes (47%), more than doubling second place finisher C Randolph with 65 votes (22%).  Scott Kingery finished third with 49 votes.

Dylan Cozens was the Phillies second round pick in the 2012 Amateur draft out of Chaparral High School in Scottsdale, AZ.

Cozens put up reasonable numbers as he moved up through the lower levels of the organization.  He displayed the type of numbers we associate with power hitters.  As his home runs increased his K rate fluctuated around 25% and his batting average settled in around .250.

Then in Clearwater in 2015, he posted a career low K rate under 20%, and a career high .282 batting average (note that I discarded Cozens’ SSS in Reading and the GCL in 2015). However, his HR production dropped to five.  I found out just before his promotion to AA, that Cozens had been instructed to make better contact over hitting home runs in 2015.

You can see in the chart below his progression during his career.  He showed in Clearwater that he can hit for average but at a severe cost to his power.  His lower K rate also brought along a career low BB rate.

When unleashed in AA, Cozens only lost .006 in batting average but added .180 to his SLG, .200 to his OPS, cut his AB per HR from 79 to 15, and more than doubled his previous high in run production.

Year/Age/Dif/Lev    PA    HR    RBI    BB    SO       BA/OBP/SLG/OPS      BB%          K%         AB/HR
2012/18/-1.7/Rk    183      5       24     21     44      .255/.341/.441/.782   11.48%     24.04%         37
2013/19/-2.0/A-     277      9       35      28     64     .265/.343/.469/.812   10.11%     23.10%          31
2014/20/-1.5/A       556   16       62      40   147     .248/.303/.415/.717      7.19%     26.44%         35
2015/21/-1.7/A+    397      5       46      26      79    .282/.335/.411/.746      6.55%     19.90%         79
2016/22/-2.3/AA    586   40    125      61    186    .276/.350/.591/.941   10.41%     31.74%         15

We’re all concerned by his splits and his K rate, but he has proven he can put the ball in play more consistently two years ago.  It’s plausible to believe that he can bring his strike outs down with out losing too much of his power other than that which he loses when he moves on from Reading.

Of course, I can’t close out this topic without a couple anecdotal stories.  The first occurred in XST a few years ago.  Cozens wasn’t in his normal right field position, but we could see his name on the line up.  Closer inspection showed that he was playing in center field.  He looked good too, ranging left and right to make catches in the gaps.  His speed still surprises, even though he stole 21 bases in 22 attempts in 2016.

The second involves one of the four home runs Cozens hit at Bright House Field.  All four were hit to the far reaches of the park, but the home run he hit on April 18, 2015 is one I will remember forever.  I described it that night as “Thome-esque”.  from my seat behind home plate, the ball appeared to sail through the light stand in right field.  I later realized that was an illusion and that the ball had passed below the lights as it headed toward Route 19. I’ve heard that Jim Thome reached Route 19 one spring, and that Ryan Howard came close. Cozens probably came close that night, too.

Next up is your selection for the #10 prospect in the organization.

 

Poll to date –

  1. J.P. Crawford
  2. Jorge Alfaro
  3. Mickey Moniak
  4. Roman Quinn
  5. Nick Williams
  6. Franklyn Kilome
  7. Sixto Sanchez
  8. Rhys Hoskins
  9. Dylan Cozens

 

58 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2017 Reader Top 30 Poll for #10

  1. It’s ‘C’ Randolph for me here. My top 9 were the same as the community’s but the order wasn’t. Ortiz and Kingery after that. Pivetta was originally in my top 10 but I slid him to 13. I think Nick is solid and has a very high probability of playing in the show but he probably tops out as a #4 starter and more likely a #5.

  2. What sells me on Kingery is his baseball instincts, his speed and making contact at the plate. Sound fundamentally. Pedroia-lite. Plus the new brass seem high on him. As high a floor as anyone in this range of the rankings. (I still maintain that pitchers and position players are ‘Appels and oranges’ when it comes to ranking, but I play along)

    1. 8mark……I like Kingery but this year is critical for him.
      He does everything well except hit RHPs. And that is a big concern to me, especially since RHBs have faced over their lifetime, from Little league all the way up thru college, RHPs over 70% of the time, and are suppose to be well conditioned and comfortable with them. Once they reach the majors it gets that much harder.
      His splits vs RHPs over the last two years in almost 650 PAs, are BA/OBP of .248/.312 and K rate- 15% and BB rate – 6%.
      The Krate is not that bad, but his BB rate is lower than what one would expect from a hitter of his ilk.
      I think he needs to pick that phase up vs RHPs this year at Reading.

      1. That’ll be a good indicator of his progress this coming year, Romus. Good breakdown. I’m not overly concerned about that but he’ll need to at least make better contact vs RHPs. That will move the BA north.

      2. Romus, I haven’t been paying much attention to Kingery’s splits but now I look back, he’s having trouble with righties. I looked at Valentin’s splits and he had a little trouble in AAA last year with righties but it was in 58 ABs. At Reading, earlier in the year, he hit equally well against righties and lefties. The other thing I saw was that Valentin is only 13 days older than Kingery.

        Valentin is only 13 days older than Kingery. He’s a level higher and could be on the Phillies roster out of training camp. He has the bloodlines to be very good. Hits righties better. Why isn’t he getting some votes here? I haven’t even thought about Jesmuel in my top 30 yet.

        1. Great comment. I like Kingery, but this is too high for a second baseman with his profile. I went with Adonis, but C is a good pick here too. I am betting that Adonis turns the K volume up next year…he has three good pitches. I don’t know why the strikeouts weren’t there this year, maybe told to pitch to contact?

      3. We all like the “theory” of Kingery as a great player, me included, but he needs to step his game up more this year. I know for a fact the Phils expect him to be the starter in Philly by the end of 2018 but he has to improve to reach the player we all hope he can be.
        I took C here and have Medina next before Kingery. It’s all the same names just in a slightly different order. C still has a chance to be a terrific hitting OF, this is a big year for him too since he just lost a year basically.

    2. I can see Pivetta pitching like Eickhoff (with maybe a little more swing and miss stuff) has since he’s been called up . . . Wouldn’t mind that at all.

      1. I think of all the second tier guys Pivetta has the best shot at being something other than a bullpen or 5 starter and if not a good starter a late innings reliever

  3. C for me as well. Kinda surprised how far he’s fallen in the past 12-18 months but I think with a healthy season he’s going to really have a strong season.

  4. Randolph all day….respectfully I say anyone that has Kingery over C is smoking some good stuff. C might have the best hit tool in the system and his comps to Tony Gwynn are no accident.

    You’re talking about a 1st round 10th overall pick. Same draft as Kingery. A kid who at just 19 years of age already has a .380 OBP 762 OPS

    Like Gwynn he’ll constantly get knocked for lack of power and defensive prowess but I mean seriously. He shouldn’t even be 10th IMO.

    1. DMAR, I like C and hope he’s a future batting champ. Love the Gwynn comps. Kingery is just closer to the show than he is now and has shown the other tools better, though yes, hitting is a big one for C. (BTW, I believe Kingery was 2nd round in same year that Nola was 1st round if I’m not mistaken) Anyway, I can’t squabble with anyone putting Randolph over Kingery.

    2. I would respectfully reply that anyone who comps Randolph to Tony Gwynn knows where the good stuff is. It’s a bit like comping pitchers to Greg Maddux.

      I’m concerned about the lack of power from C, and as good as his hit tool is, I doubt it’s on Gwynn’s level.

    3. Do you think that Randolph will begin his season at Clrwtr A ? Even if he starts at Lakewood, he’d likely graduate to high A during the season. Here’s hoping he gets to play a lot and unleash his contact skills.

  5. On Randolph and Kingery, they are so different in so many ways (except that neither has shown power yet) that it’s hard to decide who will be better. Kingery is closer, is a middle infielder who is said to have a fine glove, has progressed steadily and gets rave scouting comments. But he’s not super young, has not shown power, and has not worked an exceptional OBP. Randolph is said to have a great hit tool and seems to have excellent plate discipline, but has questionable athleticism and plays a corner outfield spot with minimal power and perhaps little projection (I saw him in person and although he’s said to be 5’10”, 205, he just looks a lot smaller than that, and, yes, physically he does resemble a young Tony Gwynn, but those comparisons are dangerous because Gwynn was a superb athlete at his peak not withstanding the less-than-perfect physique).

    I get the argument for each, but right now I’m erring on the side of Kingery because I think the team thinks so highly of him. But I think by the end of the year, we will have a much more clear idea on both prospects.

    As for Cozens, I will give him this – he has incredible EASY power to all fields. I saw a number of minor league games this year, where he seemed to just tap a ball to the opposite field and it went way over the fence. That sort of power is rare, so if he can bear down and fight off lefties and not overswing, he could turn into something special. My in-person Cozens story relates to my watching batting practice in ST a few years ago in Clearwater when Cozens and Greene were hitting. It was so obvious, even in BP, that Cozens was the superior player. What these guys saw in Larry Greene, I’ll never know – I sure as hell saw nothing in BP, not even a lot of raw power.

    1. Fair points Catch but if the Phillies site has Randolph at 5 and Kingery at 13 that’s a pretty big tell don’t you think?

      And I certainly wouldn’t want us to be in lock step with every other ranking site out there.

      1. I think the Phillies site merely channels the MLB site where the reviews are done by independent writers. In other words, the Phillies themselves have not ranked Randolph 5th and Kingery 13th and they obviously cannot believe that Sixto Sanchez is their 29th ranked prospect.

        1. You are definitely right about the outside writers I think Mayo and Callis have a lot to do with the official site top 30’s. What I think I meant is that those two guys I would expect have pretty good access to to the Phillie’s scouting and development personnel.

          1. From my understanding, from a few years ago, Jon Mayo and Jim Callis do not rework their lists until January/February each year….from scratch
            That is their only annual total work-up…they do not do a mid-season re-work like say, BP
            After the draft in June and trades in July….they cut and paste the prospects into their already existing top 30 from what I was told.
            Unless they have changed their procedures, that may be the reason for the odd and questionable prospect rankings.

            1. @romus – i think you’re correct based on my observation of the MLB ranking. basically the changes are move up or down within the rankings via trades (in and out), draft (rule IV, V and J2). MLB have Appel in their Top 10 pretty much the whole of 2016.

  6. Great list so far. What the farm lacks in star power it makes up for in astounding depth. I can’t believe some of the guys who aren’t going to make top 15. With this depth, hopefully 2 or 3 guys exceed projections and make adjustments to become potential Major League all stars. A little surprised Knapp is only pulling 1%, but can’t argue it.

    1. Knapp didn’t have a good 2016. It’s hard to rate the guys who are coming off a bad year due to injury/slump: Williams, Randolph, Knapp, Appel. Quinn played well when he played, but the injuries also make a specific rank for him difficult, especially since every season has brought injuries and injury woes tend not to decrease with age.

      I went Randolph here. The arguments for Kingery are that the team likes him and that he is close to the majors. I think the team also likes Randolph, although close to a lost season for him. I think Randolph vs Kingery is whether you like HS development arc vs college development arc. At this point, I don’t think either guy deserves to be higher than 10.

      I saw Kingery play this past season and he really didn’t sparkle or jump out. In the org, I don’t think he’s separated himself from Hernandez or Valentin. He might be our 2B of the future, but the future 2B equally well could be Galvis, Hernandez, or Valentin.

    1. I have Pullin ranked 18 this year and the shame of it is had he been able to stick at 2B his offensive profile would have been much more appealing…

    2. I really like Pullin and I totally expect him to make the majors. The word on him is that he can hit “any” fastball. I don’t think his ceiling is star level low and we sort of rank these players based on ceiling. If they were ranked on “most likely” outcome, Pullin would be much higher. He’ll likely start back at Reading next year and be there until Williams, Cozens, or Goeddel get called up. Due to the 40 man issue however, there is still a chance Goeddel starts the year in Philly which could open a spot for Pullin at LHV although Perkins will still be there too.

  7. Alberto Tirado!

    Tirado has actually made a BP top 100 before (#74 pre-2014). I think him, Appel and Randolph (#88 BA last year) are the only guys left who have made a respectable top 100 list.

    Tirado still sits 94-98, touching 100, with a slider that is plus to plus-plus. He finally seemed to figure it out at the end of the season. He had video game numbers in his last six starts – 32 IP, 56 SO, 11BB.

    I think he’s the highest upside guy left on the board. I haven’t heard if he developed a change-up during his late season dominance, but that was apparently going to be a big factor in his ability to stay at starter long term. Still, with even okay command and that fastball and slider combo, he is a shutdown reliever.

    1. I would be right there with you, but he’s been a walk machine in winter ball. That said, he and Cozens probably have the biggest ceiling/floor differentials on the team – which means their ultimate outcomes are highly uncertain.

  8. I don’t have have both C and Kingery in my top 10. The trio of Sanchez, Gowdy and Medina IMO are potential TOR and their stuff are pretty close to one another that I cannot break them apart with one another, thus, sliding C down. C’s LF only profile, limits his upside to me unless he starts to show he can also hit for power.

    Another cluster i have consists of Knapp. Pivetta, Pinto and Lively — Pivetta and Pinto have higher ceiling because they can be a very effective bullpen arm but Knapp’s C profile (if continues to progress as C and not LF) gets better consideration.

    Here’s my top 20.

    1 Crawford – should be can consensus.
    2 Moniak – except for proximity, he checks the most boxes
    3 Alfaro – C profile, power potential and a main piece in the next core
    4 Quinn – elite speed tool, and will be in the majors soon, maybe sooner
    5 Williams – power, bat speed and will be in the majors soon
    6 Kilome – TOR potential closest to the majors
    7 Hoskins – limited to 1B but higher floor than Cozens
    8 Cozens – power and athleticism
    9 Sanchez – potential TOR and improving
    10 Gowdy – potential TOR and improving
    11 Medina – potential TOR and improving
    12 Randolph – excellent hitting tool, limited to LF?
    13 Kingery – no loud tools but can do a lot of things
    14 Knapp – close to majors
    15 Pivetta – close to majors
    16 Pinto – close to majors
    17 Lively – close to majors
    18 Garcia – good stuff and close to majors
    19 Stobbe – probably the closest to a 5-tool prospect in the farm
    20 Ortiz – power!! pure potential

      1. C and Kingery are almost guaranteed bottom of) Top 10 is most list. But I think the emergence of power hitting heart of the order bats like Hoskins and Cozens and future TOR arms in Sixto, Gowdy and Medina slides a lot of common names in the list — this is another good problem to have.

        i think some of us are still concerned with the lack of star potential within the farm. Kilome (and possibly Tirado) together with the Top 2017 Rule IV pick (which I think the Phils will draft a College player) will lead that charge while prospects like Anderson, Fanti, Stephens and Brito are my breakout prospect that will start to catch some eyes next year.

        Gustavo Armas – another smallish LA arm with nice name but older, I hope will get states side.

    1. Can’t argue with that list, KuKo. Like Stobbe a lot, too. I have him top 30 but expect him to move up big time this time next year. And isn’t it be nice to have a couple of serious .300++ hitters coming along (Mickey Mo and CRan).

    2. I think the main guy you sell short is Tirado. He hasn’t got an especially high floor, but probably the highest ceiling pitcher in the organization. I think he has to be top 13. Also I see the argument for Pullin as top 20.

      1. @allentown – I have Tirado at #21 and I don’t think I’m selling him short. the main thing will forget to mention is “risk” — risk and potential goes hand in hand and ceiling and floor are just the sum (or product) of it. you cannot determine ceiling and floor without considering risks. and unfortunately, Tirado (and Cozens) have the biggest risk profile in the upper ladder of the prospect list. This risk is the reason why Tirado (and Cozens) is(are) the farthest to reach the majors amongst the 40-man member. Without a 3rd pitch, Tirado profiles like a RP which limits his ceiling. So his development of CH and control is key in truly unlocking the TOR potential that you are talking about. At age 22, I’m not sure how much time Tirado has to lower the risk profile.

        Pullin (#31), Valentin (#33) and Pujols (#35) are the ones that you can make that I’m selling short since all exceeded expectations in 2016.

        21 Tirado
        22 Eshelman
        23 Appel
        24 Anderson
        25 Canelo
        26 Brito
        27 Irvin
        28 Edgar Garcia
        29 Arano
        30 Tocci (or Pullin?!?)
        31 Pullin
        32 Jojo Romero
        33 Valentin
        34 Grullon
        35 Pujols
        36 Fanti
        37 Stephen
        38 Gamboa
        39 Juan Luis
        40 Falter

    3. KuKo….after reviewing your list you missed the closest to the game and maybe the best LHP in the system..Elniery Garcia.
      And not even to be in your top twenty!
      As Daffy Duck says….”THAT’S DESPICABLE”

        1. hahaha…i don’t intend to post my Top 21 to 40 until the poll reaches the the Top 20, but i have to show where Tirado, Pullin and some other familiar names (floating in the bottom half of the Top 30) for clarification.

  9. @8mark – a lot of the top prospect will graduate in 2017 so our next Top 10 will consist the next wave of talent that will reinforce the core in 2020. We might be looking at these names as the Phils top prospects next year and farm will now have both the depth and start power that everybody is hoping (and this doesn’t include the prospect that the Phils can get via trade).

    1. Moniak
    2. Rule IV Draftee
    3. Kilome
    4. Sixto
    5. Gowdy
    6. Medina
    7. CRan
    8. Stobbe
    9. Ortiz
    10. Hoskins
    11. Cozens
    12. Tirado

        1. It’s a great question Catch and may require a rant so let’s just say I admire them from afar but have issues with the way they insert themselves into the game I love and in some ways try to become bigger than then the players that play it.

    1. It’s a pretty good list. Nick Williams near the bottom of the top 10, Kingery above Randolph. And, folks, sorry to tell you this, but we’ve got a lot of good prospects, but no elite prospect – not yet anyway – although it shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone.

      1. I believe that the elite prospect, for one, will turn out to be Moniac…who has all the skills being further developed and refined….but the potential IS there !!

    2. Mildly surprised to see Hoskins way up at Number Six.

      Maybe the days of dismissing him as a righty 1B are over.

      1. Frank….one list I want to see is the BA Top 100…I have no illusions Hoskins will even be on it however.
        He was not even on the BA end-of-year Eastern League top twenty and the only first baseman on the list was Dom Smith from the Mets org.
        At this point, that righty-first base bias is probably set in stone.
        Paul Goldschmidt never made the BA Top 100 and it didn’t hurt him any..
        Rankings are really not the be-all, end-all anyway.

    3. Hey, Romus, I saw the pre-list tease where Sickels listed the 52 prospects he was considering and the numbers at each grade. I don’t question his final top 20, however I have two questions about his process.

      First, how can Nick Fanti not make the 52 prospects considered? I’m not saying he should be in anybody’s top 20, but Fanti posted excellent numbers for the GCL Phillies. In addition to sharing the LEAGUE lead of 7 wins with Luis Carrasco and Mauricio Llovera, leading the LEAGUE with 65 K (in 51.2 IP), having the second lowest ERA in the LEAGUE at 1.57 (behind only Sixto Sanchez’ 0.50), and the second lowest WHIP in the LEAGUE at .087 (behind Sanchez’ .076), Fanti was also selected to the GCL End-of-Season All-Star Team as a LHP. RHP Sanchez and 2B Daniel Brito were also selected.

      Second, How can INF Bryan Gonzalez merit consideration? Once again, I’m not saying that he should (or shouldn’t) be in anybody’s top 20, but he didn’t play an inning last summer and only surfaced briefly during Instructs. Why consider Gonzalez but none of the other mifddle infielders the Phillies signed last summer. Or the more heralded RHP Francisco Morales.

      It’s instances like these that make me question the lists of people who may not have seen the prospects they rank, rely on many (or a few) scouting reports, or whose focus might be stretched over more than one organization.

      1. Jim…….agree.
        Many of John’s decisions/selections in the past have been questionable. If you remember a few years back was that writer, a former HS teacher I believed from the Mid-west , he utilized to ‘scout’ Phillies prospects from some remote site. Basically the scouting was a gathering of information from different sources without referencing the sources , if I remember correctly.
        Now the one aspect of his grading that seems to make some sense, is the alpha grading based on the tier level that a prospect is currently in…I guess that is simply a grading somewhat based on floor and ceiling.
        But I do think….some of these national guys may not be right on point.

  10. with 30 teams and thousands of prospects to cover, sometimes I doubt whether some of these analysts really know the prospects or they just ask some intern to gather data and summarize without much thought process. JPC and MickeyMo’s lack of flare in the eyes of these analysts lowers there value — IMO, where JPC and MickeyMo’s goes (in the eyes of the experts), the rest of the farm follows them.

    1. Always wonder about this with prospect lists. Are there any other bloggers you think really cover Phillies prospects well? I read Winkleman from the Good Phight and think he does a pretty good job, especially with the low minors guys.

      1. MattWinks is local. Just like Jim and the rest of the local guys that cover the Phils minor league, they can provide more factual assessment of the prospects.

        1. @KK, MattW is not local. He resides in Madison, WI. But he does a lot of research. He watches all org games on the MiLB package. (He has mentioned that he uses FF to focus on prospects and bypass AAAA guys.) I imagine his GoodPhight position allows him access to reports and analysis that others don’t have. And he has a network of people he follows and communicates with for further information. (For instance, velo I report on PP or Twitter are listed in his pitch data section along with those of others, Chris King e.g.) Honestly, I don’t know how he finds the time or maintains focus. I enjoy reading his stuff and appreciate all the mentoring he provided. That said, I don’t always agree with his assessments. But that shouldn’t be a surprise. None of us agree with anyone else on every opinion. Except my wife, she’s always right. And yes, she reads these posts.

          1. jim – you’re right that MattWinks is now residing in WI. But he grew up in South Jersey as a Phillies fan and he’s a Philly by heart so he probably followed the Phillies farm more closely than the other teams. Not sure what are all his gigs but I assume that he only writes Phillies (and not another team) baseball.

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