Phuture Phillies 2017 Reader Top 30 Poll for #5

Roman Quinn was your selection as the #4 prospect in the Phillies’ organization.  Quinn garnered 29% of the votes in the first poll settled without a majority.  Nick Williams finished a close second with 25%.  In what may be a sign of more close races, Sixto Sanchez (17%) topped Franklyn Kilome (12%) for third, and Rhys Hoskins (6%) nipped Dylan Cozens (4%) for fifth.

Roman Quinn has an injury history that has retarded his career since his only injury-free season in Williamsport in 2012.  When he is on the field, Quinn is an exciting player.

Quinn was the Phillies’ 2nd round pick (66th overall) in 2011 out of high school.  He didn’t sign until August 15th, 2011 and wasn’t assigned to a team until he began his professional career with Williamsport in 2012.  Quinn slashed .281/.370/.408/.778 with 30 steals in 66 games at with the Crosscutters.

Quinn put up pedestrian numbers during injury shortened season in Lakewood and Clearwater, but showed enough to be promoted after each season.  He still struggled to stay on the field the last two seasons with Reading but slashed .306/.356/.435/.791 in 2015 and .287/.361/.441/.802 in 2016.  He averaged 30 SB per season the last two years while playing in only 129 games for Reading.

Quinn returned in time to get a call up to the Phillies in 2016.  He saw action in 15 games and posted a .263/.373/.333/.706 while stealing 5 bases in 6 attempts.

Quinn’s game is a speed game and hinges on his ability to get on base.  He has 159 stolen bases in his minor league career, a BB% of 8.8% (9.3% in 2016), and puts the ball in play with a 20% K% (21.1% in 2016).  He shows modest power with 23 HRs among his 100 minor league XBH.

Quinn started as a SS in the organization and wasn’t moved to CF until 17 games into the 2014 season in Clearwater, right around the time J.P. Crawford arrived at Advanced A.  He’s a slightly above average fielder with a slightly above average arm, and both project to above average.  He needs to be in CF, as his below average power doesn’t profile well in a corner OF position.

Next up is your selection for the #5 prospect in the organization.

 

Poll to date –

  1. J.P. Crawford
  2. Jorge Alfaro
  3. Mickey Moniak
  4. Roman Quinn

Don’t forget to visit the poll in 2017 Phuture Phillies Reader Top 30 Poll – Additional Prospects Poll to cast your ballot for the prospects you think should be added to the remaining polls.  Over 2700 votes have been cast so far.  If you’ve already participated, thank you.  The leaders right now are Ben Lively, Carlos Tocci, Andrew Pullin, Jesse Valentin, and Jose Pujols.  Lively has by far been listed on the most ballots.  It looks like I’ll get a solid 24-25 to add to the remaining polls.  But 20 through 28 are pretty fluid.  If I continue to get a good response the bottom 5-6 places might remain undecided until the poll closes Friday night.

49 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2017 Reader Top 30 Poll for #5

  1. In the Kilome versus Sixto debate, I’m on the Kilome side.

    1) He’s six inches taller than Sixto, 6’6 to 6’0. Better frame (though Kilome needs to add muscle).

    2) Kilome, after his first three starts, just dominated in the Sally League; which is a couple jumps above the Gulf League.

    3) Kilome’s K/9 is much better than Sixto’s. He’s more dominant with stronger stuff whereas Sixto is more command and control.

    I had Kilome 4th, so will be voting for him here. And Sixto sixth.

    1. Sixto at 6’0? Several times this summer I stood next to him so that friends could estimate how much taller he is than I. Not much. I’m a little short of 5’9. Sanchez has “big hair” which makes him look taller than he is. And he was listed at a questionable 5’10 all summer. I hope he has grown, that would ease one of the questions people have had about him. I can’t wait to see him this spring and see for myself.

      1. I’m not sure that size really matters. If you can throw the ball and throw it well – then yeah you can be better at 5’10” over someone who stands at 6’10”.

          1. Good ones Frank…forgot about those guys.
            Might as well throw in there Billy Wagner, St Joe’s Jaime Moyer and Ron Guidry.
            But lefties have more a chance of succeeding at being better short pitchers than righties it seems.

      2. Jim….I like to envision Sixto being the Phillies version of a Johnny Cueto.
        He is relatively short with a large lower trunk.

      3. I’m not discounting your comment but he’s listed as 6’0 on MILB, BA and BRef.

        I know they often inflate heights, so I believe you when you says he’s shorter than that. That said, he’s only 18–maybe he has grown?

      4. I am a HUGE Sixto fan, but people seem to think that his height is not relevant. Well, unfortunately, it is for at least two reasons. First, smaller right-handers, tend to wear down more easily – Tim Lincecum is a great example of that. Second, greater height (to a certain degree) often leads to a pitcher throwing on a more downward plane, which is desirable. If you don’t think height is important, especially for righty, go try to assemble a list of dominant righty pitchers under six foot – it’s not a long list – in addition to Lincecum I can think of Johnny Cueto, Marcus Stroman (maybe the best raw comp for Sixto) and, of course, Pedro Martinez (Maddux was exactly six foot) and, after that, I struggle to find anyone.

        That said, I think there’s a good chance that Sixto is an extreme outlier and, if he retains his velocity, he could be something special in the big leagues.

        The only reason, aside from his height, that I downgrade him slightly is just his lack of experience (the proximity factor). People rightly compare Sixto and Kilome’s stuff, but my sense is that Sixto has exceptional command – the kind you are born with – which can make an enormous difference.

        So I have Kilome and Sixto bunched together with Kilome slightly in the lead now, but, if you forced me to predict who will be the better big league pitcher (again, assuming Sixto’s does not lose velocity before he gets to the bigs), I’d say Sixto.

        1. The only other ones I could think of challenged height pitchers in this decade would be Bartolo, Fernando Rodney, Kris Medlen, Travis Wood, and David Robertson.
          It is very difficult for the shorter starting pitchers to maintain sustained dominant effectiveness…at least until they go to the next phase of relief pitching.

    2. Not sure where you get “he has stronger stuff” than Sixto. I have read glowing reports about Sixto’s stuff. And Sixto’s command seems to be significantly better than Kilome’s. That said, Kilome’s proximity advantage while also having a #1 upside makes me tip toward him too. But it is a coin flip IMO

      1. Sixto does not have a secondary pitch on the level of Kilome’s curveball. It is a power pitch that he can throw for strikes or swings and misses. Sixto’s curveball has that projection but isn’t there. Sixto does have the better changeup. Velocity is similar, with Kilome more inconsistent. Both have good sinking and running action on their pitch.

        It is an argument that can go either way.

        1. I’ve read that Sixto has a power slider that already is good and will get better. Easy velocity that may get even better, and repeatable delivery.

          As catch said yesterday, higher risk of injury due to smaller stature and likely more years in the minors, with less downward trajectory.

          These two I had so close that I really ranked them exactly the same.

  2. Sixto….I guess people think he is a legit top 5 prospect in the Phils Org. I also guess it shows the level of prospects after Moniak. Quinn is a top 5 prospect….if…lets say it all together…..”if he can stay healthy”. Looks like this is the last few months that he will be a prospect. Wonder how much longer Crawford will be a prospect? Will he and Alfaro still be prospects come October?

    Should be another fun year on the prospect musical chairs front. Can’t wait for Feb 14!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  3. Williams is my choice for this spot. I think this is the year he will add pitch selection to his repertoire.

    1. Curious, what has Williams done up til now that leads you to believe that patience is something he’ll develop in 2017?

    2. Patience I think you can teach but I think pitch recognition is a separate question. Its one thing to have a guy who never walks because he’s aggressive vs. a guy with big K numbers because he swings at bad pitches.

      That’s my biggest concern with Williams…

      1. Here’s the FG chat from the other day on Williams:

        Eric A Longenhagen: Williams’ feel for the barrel and power make him a big leaguer but I think his approach (which is bad, like really bad, bad enough that I wanted to NP him when I saw him in the AFL a few years ago but was talked out of it by smart people) limits his ceiling to an avg player.

        That’s our #5 prospect? Awesome.

  4. Good point 3up. That is a big concern with Williams. I have him here based on hope that he is just over aggressive and can learn better pitch selection. We will know this year. My vote is based on his other tools.

  5. Someone alluded to it, and I think its a good point–after our Top 3 (in whatever order you had Alfaro and MM), there’s serious questions about all of our prospects.

    Maybe our system isn’t as strong as we think? That said, our system seems to be ranked because of its depth.

    But just for our players roughly ranked 4-11:

    Quinn can’t seem to stay healthy
    Williams had a horrible 2016
    Kilome and Sixto (and Randolph for that matter) are in the lower minors
    Kingery doesn’t have the highest of ceilings
    Cozens’ splits aren’t very good
    Hoskins is a RH 1B

    None of them scream “can’t miss.”

    1. Fritz – it’s a real concern and I’ve been saying the same thing for a while. You add to this the fact that very few of the recently promoted players are “can’t miss” either – not even Franco, Nola or Velasquez. What they DO have, however, is exceptional depth and we need to hope that a reasonable number of these prospects or young major leaguers turn into something big.

      When you look at the number of question marks in the minors and on the big league team, the signing of Odubel makes even more sense. I expect more of those contracts to follow once guys reasonably establish themselves.

      By the way, all of the uncertainty makes the success of a guy like J.P. Crawford all the more important to the organization.

    2. I agree with you that these guys after Mickey have flaws. But allow me to encourage you:

      The point of it all is that we have a great deal of depth. When you have 8-12 really good prospects that are not “sure things,” of course you can’t swear by any one of them, but combined, they are powerful.

      12 prospects will have 3 of them hit their top 25 percentile ceiling. Those 3, though we cannot guarantee which ones, will be extremely valuable to the team.

      And then 6 more will hit their most likely outcomes, while not as exciting, can still be valuable as bit players and trade bait.

      So don’t worry, we’re in very good shape.

      1. When it comes to prospects with warts…most have some somewhere….BA’s Rule 5 Odubel Herrera’s Scouting Report from 2014:

        Scouting Report: Originally signed out of Venezuela ……, Herrera does two things well: he can hit and he has plus speed. After his stock dropped in 2013, Herrera bounced back in 2014, winning the Texas League batting title ….. Herrera has good bat speed and a simple swing that helps him hit line drives to all fields. He doesn’t have much power though, hitting just two home runs with a swing that isn’t geared for loft. He’s played well this winter in the Venezuelan League, batting .374/.421/.565 with four home runs in 42 games,…. The question on Herrera is where he’s going to play. He improved his defense at second base in 2014, and managers voted him the TL’s Best Defensive Second Baseman in the BA Best Tools survey. He’s spent time in left field and this winter has been playing center, … a lefthanded hitter with a thick 5-foot-11, 200-pound frame, Herrera could become a player along the lines of Cubs infielder Luis Valbuena. Chances To Stick: 50-50.

      2. Rei,

        Good point.

        It’s like in investing. Buy a basket of growth companies in a growth industry and you’re more likely to succeed than if you try to pick winners. Of course, the guys who do make big bets on what prove to be the winners make the most money. But in team sports probability should lead to the best results. So, I’ll take depth with the belief that enough players will bubble up to the surface to make the Phillies a contender.

  6. I live in Dallas TX, and was at PT this morning. There’s a training facility in the same building that’s a part of the PT practice, and this morning I happened to see Nick Williams working out, pretty cool. Ive never seen him play in person, but kid looks the part, very lean and athletic. He was throwing up a good amount of weight from what I could tell. Hope he puts it all together, because he could be a legit 4/5 tool guy.

  7. Quick question

    I am thinking about doing a spring training trip this year. Can any help – I looked online and saw that tickets in the range of March 15 were like $30 per person. Is this true? I didn’t think the tickets cost that much. Or is it best to just walk up the day of the game. Thanks for any and all advice. Again, love the site Jim and the insight from the posters. Happy Holidays!

    1. If you are looking for “day of” seats at the park, I believe you can buy seats or standing room only at Clearwater. If you want good seats, however, or want to make sure you can get seats against a big draw team (Yankees, Tigers), you are advised to buy them in advance.

    2. The games around St. Patrick’s Day are traditionally among the heaviest attended down here. Ticket prices are set and a premium is added for certain teams, the Yankees and Red Sox come to mind. Yankees games draw heavy because their ST site is in Tampa and their fans will buy up tickets for games in Clearwater. The Blue Jays (Dunedin), Orioles (Sarasota), and to a lesser extent the Pirates (Bradenton) are close enough where their fans will travel to Clearwater to watch their teams.

      The Phillies offer Berm and Walk-in tickets that are more reasonably priced, but don’t include a seat. You can buy tickets the day of the game. The Phillies hold back a small amount. I have gotten seats down the left field line on game day when the team still included Utley, Rollins, Howard, Ruiz, Hamels. …

      Dunedin is so close that if the Phillies play there while you are visiting that is another option. However, their stadium is blemish compared to Bright House (soon to be Spectrum Field).

      If the Phillies are on the road (NOT split squad) on any of the days you are here, you can go to the Complex next to Bright House and watch the minor leaguers work out/play. As I write this there is no charge for this. But some teams (the Braves for one) do charge to watch ST and their minor leaguers. It won’t surprise me if other teams follow suit.

      Another consideration is parking. On top of your high-priced tickets, you will pay upwards of ten dollars to park on game day. And most stadium food and drinks are more expensive during ST than they are during the summer. On non-game days, parking is free but limited at the Complex and there are no concessions at the Complex once ST starts.

      Since I began writing for Phuture Phillies, I attend far fewer ST games than I did when I first moved down here. Cost was one reason. Limited playing time for the starters was another. It annoyed me to pay $30 plus and watch the starters I wanted to see being replaced by AAAA players after two at bats. That said, I enjoy the games I attend and encourage you to attend. But be sure to take in the Complex experience, too when they are on the road.

        1. stay at the Hampton Inn or La Quinta on Highway 19 near the stadium. You can walk to stadium in 5 minutes and not have to pay to park. And Lenny’s is on the way…

    1. Another really smart trade for a rebuilding team. Tobias has no future with the Phillies and Bucholz has some pedigree and could have a good year. If it doesn’t work out, who cares? But if it does, the team has another trade chip.

  8. Also blocked by Valentin, IMO, so I think it is a good move. I agree with Catch that it was a smart risk, not a big downside in trading Tobias and Bucholz has had success before and may bounce back. Also, could he become a bullpen piece if he does not bounce back as a SP?

    1. Phillies actually have several decently good 2B prospects, so trading Tobias is not surprising. I even voted for him to be added to prospect vote. Good hitter

      1. yeah I voted to add tobias too. hes just blocked by kingkongery in the phillies system. it’s a good trade for both teams.

  9. I am a season ticket holder for the Iron Pigs.
    Not sure what all the hype is about Nick Williams.
    Its another repeat of the Dom Brown era….
    Hopefully Klentak is smarter than Ruben and moves on…..

  10. Speaking of Williams, who is a good comp for him — someone with 25% K rate and 5% BB rate (but without huge power) in the minors who became a productive major leaguer.

    1. Today Fansgraph Eric L chatted Nick Williams:

      Eric A Longenhagen: Williams’ feel for the barrel and power make him a big leaguer but I think his approach (which is bad, like really bad, bad enough that I wanted to NP him when I saw him in the AFL a few years ago but was talked out of it by smart people) limits his ceiling to an avg player.

  11. Rating prospects would be easier if there were two categories: upper minors ( AAA, AA, A+) and lower minors.

  12. If Williams, Cozens, and Altherr do not make it. Where is the outfield until Moniak arrives? And where is the power? A lot riding of them.

  13. Suggestion: RF could be covered by a combo of Cozens and Altherr—-vs R vs L. Watching an uninjured Altherr in ST will tell us more. I still believe his swing is too long….if only he could make it more compact….

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