Prospect Discussion: Week of November 8th

Here’s the discussion thread for Prospect talk.  Phillies talk and other topics should be posted in the active Open Discussion for the week.

This link will take you to a Phillies’ organizational roster page provided by MLB Trade Rumors (Tools/MLB Depth Charts off their home page and MLB /Philadelphia Phillies from the menu or PHI under “NATIONAL LEAGUE DEPTH CHART LINKS”.  In addition to projections for the big club, they have projected the levels for a host of minor leaguers.  Of particular interest are the four starters they project in Williamsport – Kevin Gowdy, Nick Fanti, Mauricio Llovera, and Sixto Sanchez.

Extra Innings

Winter league baseball has started.

  • The Venezuelan League began games on October 6th (14 Phillies’ org players).
  • The Arizona Fall League began on October 11th (7 org players).
  • Mexican Pacific League began on Tuesday, October 11th (0 org players).
  • The Dominican Winter League began on Thursday, October 20th (11 org players).
  • The Puerto Rican League began on October 27th (4 org players).
  • The Nicaraguan Baseball League opened on October 28th (0 org players).
  • The Colombian Baseball League opened on November 4th (5 org players).
  • The Australian Baseball League opens on November 17th (0 org prospects).
  • Panama has a winter league, but their web site is impossible to find/navigate.

Scott Kingery went 1-2 in the AFL All Star game.  He entered in the fifth inning as a defensive replacement and led off the sixth with a double into the right center field gap. The broadcasters were busy interviewing an MLB scout and failed to announce Kingery’s presence at the plate.  In fact, when he laced a 3-2 pitch into the gap, the play-by-play guy fumbled around on the batter’s name and didn’t credit Kingery with the hit until he was on second base.

The discussion with the scout WAS interesting, but I know about the 20-80 scouting scale they were talking about and would have much preferred they discuss MY prospect rather than the fluff they were filling the air with.  Reminded me of the way Dylan Cozens was treated during his at bat during the Eastern League’s All Star game.  In fact, the second out was recorded on a three-pitch strike out and the broadcast team didn’t notice until the kid was walking back to the dugout.  Then they pointed out that it was his third K in as many at bats.

Kingery came to the plate again with the bases loaded and two outs in the eighth inning. He fell behind 0-2 and eventually chopped a ball toward second.  The fielder had to charge and barely got Kingery at first.  It was close, but when I re-watched the game on Sunday, I viewed it in slo-motion and saw that his foot was maybe an inch above the bag when the ball disappeared into the webbing of the first baseman’s glove.

Kingery’s East Team got whacked, 12-4.

You can check on the progress of our prospects here.  Note that Latin American leagues that aren’t included in the Caribbean Series do NOT get their players’ results listed. That would be Latin American leagues other than the Dominican, Venezuelan, Mexican, and Puerto Rican. So, don’t expect to find stats for the kids playing in Nicaragua.

Through Sunday, position players of note –

  • Mitch Walding is still holding his own, batting .295/.415/.432/.847.  He still has a .500 BABIP with 13 H and 18 K in 44 AB (13 H- 0 HR/44 AB-18 K – 0 HR – 0 SF).
  • Scott Kingery had a little spurt before the All Star game and is batting a more respectable .264/.310/.358/.669.  He has 3 XBH including a HR, 4 BB and 11 K, and is 2 for 2 stealing bases.
  • Aaron Brown has 18 K and 1 BB in 55 PA, but has 3 HR among his 10 H and 9 RBI.
  • Rhys Hoskins has has continued to cool off to a slash of .260/.383/.400/.783.  He has 2 HR, 8 RBI, 7 BB, 3 HBP, and 10 K among his 60 PA.
  • Dylan Cozens is slashing .208/.309/.458/.767.  He has 3 HR, 8 RBI, 7 BB and 17 K among his 55 PA.
  • Brock Stassi is back up to .309/.472/.593/.1.065.  He has 26 BB  and 19 K in 99 PA.  He leads all Phillies prospects with 5 HR and 17 RBI.
  • Andrew Knapp has a .276/.323/.448/.771 in 31 PA with a HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB, and 5 K.
  • Wilson Garcia has a .306/.333/.500/.833 in 54 PA with 2 HR, 0 BB, 2 HBP, 5 K.
  • Carlos Tocci has a .290/.340/.376/.716 in 100 PA with 10 RBI, 6 BB, 1 HBP, and 14 K.
  • Jesse Valentin has a .241/.324/.276/.599 in 36 PA with 6 RBI, 4 BB, 5 K, 1 SF, 2 SAC.
  • Jesus Alastre is the only other player above .200, Herlis Rodriguez has 11 RBI.

Phillies’ pitchers with an ERA of 0.00 has dropped from ten to seven.

  • Three more appearances for Elvis Araujo (10 total) – 11 K in 9.2 IP, and only 2 hits during the week (8 H and 5 BB total) have lowered his WHIP from 1.65 to 1.34.
  • Seranthony Dominguez has a 0.43 WHIP (1 H, 0 BB) in his lone appearance.  He has struck out 3  in his 2.1 IP. (no appearances this week)
  • Carlos Indriago has a 1.33 WHIP (3 H, 1 BB) in 3 IP in 4 appearances. (no appearances this week)
  • One 2.1 IP appearance for Ulises Joaquin – lowered WHIP to 0.94. with a hit and BB (3 H, 2 BB total) in 3 appearances and 7 K (4 this outing).
  • One 1.0 IP appearance by Ricardo Pinto – his WHIP rose to 1.59 on the 2 hits he allowed.  In 5.2 IP in 4 appearances – (7 H, 2 BB, 6 K).
  • Jeff Singer has pitched 9.2 IP in 7 appearances – 6 H, 8 K, 1 BB, 0.72 WHIP.
  • Alberto Tirado has a WHIP of 2.67 with 1 H and 7 BB in 3.0 IP (4 K).
  • Gregory Infante finally allowed an ER, has an 0-1 record in 10 appearances, but also has 5 saves in 5 SVO, and 10 K in 10.0 IP (1.30 WHIP with 7 H and 6 BB).  The loss came on an unearned run.  0.90 ERA.
  • Alec Asher (the only SP in the group) allowed his first 4 ER in 2 starts last week.  He has 21.1 IP in 4 starts with 1.69 ERA, 12 H, 1 BB, 10 K, 0.61 WHIP.
  • And, Yacksel Rios gave up his first ER.  In 4 appearances he has a 3.00 WHIP in 3.2 IP with on 7 H, 4 BB, 4 K, 2.45 ERA.
  • Miguel Nunez is pitching well in the AFL – 1.13 ERA in 7 appearances, 2 saves in 2 SVO, 1.13 WHIP in 8.0 IP on 6 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K.

The Toros lost their Columbian Winter League opener, 2-0 on Friday.  Jake Waguespack took the loss.  In 2.1 IP, he allowed 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 1 K.  Grenny Cumana and Josh Tobias went 0-4.  Tobias struck out twice.  Chace Numata went 1-4 with a double and 2 K.

The Toros dropped their home opener, 2-1 on Saturday.  Cumana went 3-4 with a BB, double, HR, and RBI.  Tobias went 1-4.  Numata went 0-3 with a BB.

The Toros finally won on Sunday, 9-4.  Cumana went 2-6 with 2 RBI and a K.  Tobias went 1-4 with a BB, HR, 2 RBI, and a K.  Numata went 1-5 with a K.  Former Phillies’ prospect Bryan Martelo went 2-4 for the Lions.

Over the weekend, Cumana committed a fielding error and Numata had 2 passed balls.

Jorge Alfaro is on the Toros’ reserve list.  His 19-year old brother, Johandro, plays first base for the team.

Transactions

  • 11/7 – IF Raymond Mora assigned to DSL Phillies2.

 

 

57 thoughts on “Prospect Discussion: Week of November 8th

  1. Tocci continues to make it interesting for the Rule 5 draft. Do the Phils protect him? If they don’t, what are the chances he’s taken by another team? And most importantly, will he ever be a legitimate MLB’er? If the answer to the 3rd question is no, then the answer to #1 is no and who cares about #2? If the answer to #3 is maybe, then question #2 is a critical question. Personally, I think they don’t make him part of the 40 man roster. If someone takes him, they add at least another year to his development. If they can find some way to bulk him up, then he’s worth taking a shot at but if he can’t be bulked up, it isn’t worth any money to take him.

    1. I mentioned this toward the end of the season but just about all of Toccis numbers are trending in the right direction, he’s slowly improves in all aspects (such as his K % dropped while his BB/9 went up (at Clearwater)) and he’s already a capable ML CF (defensively). His SB numbers don’t bother me (Victorino is always my example that it can improve, in the MiL he got thrown out at better than a 50% clip). Like you mentioned he needs to get bigger, literally the only thing holding him back (and it’s not even a baseball skill)

      1. On Tocci . . . I have this conversation with someone on this post twice a year. Nobody doubts that he is very athletic and that he has the raw skills and hand-eye coordination necessary to be a very good player. Assume that away – we all agree on that. But to those who cite statistics and see him as a potential major leaguer I ask this: have you ever seen him in person? If you have, you would question whether there is any possible way he could ever be strong enough to be a potential starter in the majors. He is, quite simply, the most slight position player I have ever seen on a professional baseball team. And it’s not just that he’s skinny, he has neither the frame nor the apparent potential for added muscle mass to project him as a major league player. To be blunt, he looks like a skinny 10th grader on the high school cross country team, which is not an exaggeration; that’s what he looks like. Narrow shoulders, zero muscles. If he can somehow overcome that issue, kudos to him, but I don’t see it happening and I really don’t care if he gets drafted – let some other team deal with him for a year while he hits .165 (which, by the way, I don’t see happening – there’s not enough potential upside in him to tie up a roster spot for a full year).

        1. Well said. I agree that he won’t be protected, won’t be selected, and will be in CF at Cwater this year. On the other hand, the guys that concern me are Perkins, Anderson, and Pujols. We could lose all three

          1. Murray…..relax….on Nov 18th rosters have to be in and final.
            Every year people get worried about losses, but normally there are only on average half the teams that participate in the Rule 5, the rest fill their 40 with 40. So the odds that Pujols and Anderson both get selected are minimal. Perkins, otoh, and probably Valentin…will get selected since they have AA and AAA level experience.

          2. Perkins is, frankly, just another guy – a pretty classic AAAA player; I’m not worried about him. Pujols to me is too far away and presents too much risk for the roster spot he would occupy – I view the odds of him being taken as being fairly low. Drew Anderson is a legitimate concern if he is not protected; we may have something in him and I’d like to see them retain him.

          3. I’m worried about Anderson too since I like him and I’m not sure that the Phils will protect him. The Phils is probably banking on the fact that Anderson came back from injury and not played above A+. The teams that will possible take a chance on Anderson will be a) rebuilding team who has no intention to contend; and b) teams that player in FSL since they probably seen or scout Anderson more. ATL, CIN, MIA, MIN falls on both categories.

        2. Ditto,
          got to like the analogy….’skinny 10th grader on the high school cross country team’…now that’s funny.
          Wait a minute…that’s was me!

          1. Agreed of all the players mentioned Drew Anderson is probably the only one I would be sorry to lose and frankly I don’t think you even lose guys like Valentin, Tocci or Pujols.

        3. Tocci will be the skinnier version of Tyler Goeddel if selected in the Rule V. Tocci better not to get into a fight otherwise he will be knocked out cold.

          Catch reminds me of Joe Decamara – articulate, passionate and (from time to time) sentimental.

            1. catch mostly post a (well thought) paragraph than a simple sentence that’s probably why it gives me the Decamara feeling.

              @catch – “it’s great to be with yah here”

          1. I’ve got the Joe Decamara vocal impression down pat too. I think I’ve got a few years on Joe, however – which allows me to wax poetics all the way back to the early to mid 70s (went to my first game in August of 1972 – still have the ball I bought that day at the park with the phony stamped signature – so campy, but so many good memories).

      2. I’m not saying I’m worried about Tocci’s ability to steal bases, but you’re 100% wrong about Victorino. The only season in his entire career where he even came close to 50% CS was his first full MLB season (4 SB, 3 CS). In the minors he had 182 SB vs 69 CS. Which is good for a 72.51% success rate. Hardly a liability on the base paths.

    2. Bell – I think there’s zero chance the Phillies protect Tocci, and zero chance of him being selected. Next season will be different, but Tocci did nothing at Clearwater to prove he’s ready to face MLB pitching an entire season.

      There’s only so many teams that even make a Rule V selection. Generally half the teams make no selection at all. So the pool of interested teams is already diluted. So the question becomes, would Tocci, if unprotected, be amongst the top 20 players who will qualify for the Rule V – he won’t be. And not even a rebuiding team would carry him on the roster an entire year

  2. I’m as big a Tocci supporter as anyone, but no way he is drafted and sticks on an MLB roster in 2017. I wouldn’t worry about it.

    That said, he won’t be in Clearwater next year — he’ll be the starting CF in Reading.

      1. If my math is correct we have Williams, Quinn and Cozens in Lehigh. If Reading has Tocci, Pullin and Brown, where does Goeddel get regular playing time? I’m not a big Goeddel guy. Just wondering…..

        1. And speaking of Tocci (I can’t believe we’re still talking about this guy) the only thought I have is that the organization values him as a future 5th outfielder perhaps as rosters expand? That’s all.

        2. Well if Quinn makes his mark in ST…then he may stay on the team in CF and OH goes to LF. When OH reports for winter ball, if he starts to play LF then he may be getting ready for the transition over there.
          If Quinn ends up back in LHV…then I guess the DH rotation comes into being…..but then again there is also the Knapp and Alfaro situation that needs to be sorted.
          I still think Knapp and Lively may be dealt next month.

          1. Romus com on Brown on his last leg as a prospect he’s redoing Reading . N Williams redoing LVH cause he can’t walk . If Quinn can stay healthy for 400 atbats it will be the first time ever. Cozens and Goeddel should enjoy Lvh corners outfield corner until there up in majors. Bty Goeddel AA stats blows Brown and Quinn’s stars away.

        3. @8mark – i also see Goeddel is a no mans land that’s why i advocate (in another thread) in trading him for prospects so that creates a much needed roster spot and not blocking the progression of some of the younger prospects.

          Even if Quinn make it with the Phils after ST, Sweeney (or Nick but less likely) might start at CF in LHV. Back up OF in the Phils is a possibility but needs regular at bats which he may not get with the Phils.

        4. Brown turns 25 in June. He finished last season in CLW its quite possible he starts 17 in CLW.

          Goeddel just turned 24 so I could see a scenario where he starts 17 in REA! He needs to rebuild his swing path. Hard FB’s inside had him tied up all season long.

  3. I’m really hoping Kingery tears it up at Reading next year. He has the tools to do so. He’ll be 23, so not too old for the league. And lots of prospects before have used Reading to turbocharge their path through the minors.

    Approaching 1000 PAs in the minors now (930 including AFL) . . . I thought he’d hit better. Cumulative BA of .269, ISO of about .100, 16% K rate, 6.5% BB rate. Though SB % has been excellent.

    I know some posters prefer Valentin, but I still favor Kingery.

  4. That may actually be a big help to guys on this team. Cesar also needs a base running coach. He has speed but is a poor base runner.

      1. yes, you are exaggerating. Lopes is a good base-running coach but he isn’t the base-stealing whisperer.

        The Nationals SB % increased by 4% between 2015 and 2016. The stole more bases in 2016 but they also added Ben Revere and Trea Turner who added almost 50 SB between them.

        Lopes could help on the margins but he’s not going to suddenly make a guy like Hernandez a smart base runner.

        1. Actually he is – compare the Phillies’ SB percentages and success in the year before and after he joined the Phillies’ staff. The difference is truly staggering. Having him would produce an additional 10-15 runs a year which roughly translates to 2-3 WAR – I believe that what I said is truly accurate.

          1. Catch, I agree totally with you. Not all coaches/managers are good communicators. They may know their stuff but if they don’t translate it into digestible pieces for the player, it falls to the ground before it reaches their ears. Lopes knew how to do that. Bowa is another guy with certain players. He’s actually helped Cesar regardless of whether he’s part of our future.

          2. Then why not the same impact on his new team? Your estimate of him adding 10-15 runs per year is based on what?

            I did compare the 2006 Phillies pre-Lopes vs. the 2007 Phillies with Lopes and what I found:

            2006 – Utley was 15 of 19 in 2007 – 9 of 10. big % jump but small sample size
            2006 – Rollins was 36 of 40 in 2007 41 of 47. More steals but lower %
            2006 – Shane Victorino was 3 of 4 in 2007 37 of 41. Biggest jump of anyone in both attempts and success rate. Was that Lopes or just Victorino replacing Abreu (20/24 in 2006) as the everyday RFer?

            Other big change between 2006 and 2007 was addition of Michael Bourn to the roster who was 18 of 19 compared to Aaron Rowand who was 10 of 14 in 2006.

            So the big difference between 2006 and 2007 was the emergence of Victorino and the addition of Bourn to the running game.

            Can that be attributed to the legend of Davy Lopes? I don’t think so..

            I do think that Lopes is one of the best in the game as a 1b coach but he’s not worth another player on the field…

            1. I looked back at the statistics and you were right that Rollins and Utley had high SB percentages before Lopes joined the staff – so the estimate I provided probably is high. But there’s no question that Victorino showed enormous improvement under Lopes – he went from an average SB percentage (minors and 2006) to a lethal weapon on the bases. But, all the better Phillie base runners continued to improve under Lopes, to the point where they were rarely caught on base.

              In any event, there is no question in my mind that Cesar Hernandez and Roman Quinn should be better at running the bases and stealing bases and I don’t see that they are getting the instruction they really need to do that.

            2. Catch I absolutely agree that Hernandez and Quinn should be better both in numbers and success rate than they currently are. Just not sure how much of it is coaching and how much of it is the player.

  5. Sorry, not sure which thread to ask this question, but is there a link to all of the rule 5 eligible prospects in the Phils system?

    1. Yes….JimP listed them in one of his comments sections…..maybe last week or early this week…..cannot remember.

      1. Ya I searched just now but could not find it. Only thing I found was Kurdt’s 40 man projection, which I assume was an exercise to protect rule 5″s

        C Rupp, Cameron
        1B Joseph, Tommy
        2B Hernandez, Cesar ###
        3B Franco, Maikel PHI
        SS Galvis, Freddy ###
        LF Quinn, Roman ###
        CF Herrera, Obudel ***
        RF Altherr, Aaron
        BE-C Veteran FA
        BE-INF Veteran FA (Blanco, Andres ###)
        BE-INF Valentin, Jesse ###
        BE-OF Veteran FA (Phils might give Asche another try as LH bat)
        BE-OF Veteran FA (I prefer Cam Perkins here)

        SP1 Veteran FA (probably Morton, Fister or Hellboy)
        SP2 Nola, Aaron
        SP3 Velasquez, Vince
        SP4 Eickhoff, Jerad
        SP5 Morgan, Adam *** (over Eflin or Jake)
        RP-Long Gonzalez, Severino
        RP-Mid Cordero, Jimmy
        RP-Mid Araujo, Elvis *** (or can be Veteran FA)
        RP-Mid Rodriguez, Joely ***
        RP-Set Gomez, Jeanmar
        RP-Set Ramos, Edubray
        RP-CL Neris, Hector

        The 15 players who will start in the minors.

        C Alfaro, Jorge LHV
        C Knapp, Andrew ### LHV
        SP Eflin, Zach LHV
        SP Thompson, Jake LHV
        SP Asher, Alec LHV
        SP Pivetta, Nick LHV
        SP Lively, Ben LHV
        RP Appel, Mark LHV
        RP Garcia, Luis LHV
        OF Williams, Nick *** LHV
        OF Cozens, Dylan *** LHV
        SP Pinto, Ricardo REA
        SP Garcia, Elniery *** REA
        OF Goeddel, Tyler REA
        SP Tirado, Alberto CLW

  6. Started playing around with a Top 30 which has quickly expanded into a Top 50. Just so much depth in the system right now – here’s my top 6 which is unlikely to change.

    1. JP Crawford
    2. Jorge Alfaro
    3. Nick Williams
    4. Franklyn Kilome
    5. Mickey Moniak
    6. Roman Quinn

    Alfaro the big jump for me – I had him no. 10 in the system in January. At the time I indicated if it becomes clear he could remain at C, he would leap up my personal chart. After marked development as a C at Reading this season, there appears to be little question that Alfaro will i fact stick at C. Though right behind Crawford at no. 2, there’s an admittedly large gap between Crawford, who is universally a Top 5 OA rated prospect, and Alfaro who I view as just inside the Top 50 OA.

    I’m still considering whether Kilome should rank ahead of Williams. Kilome was absolutely dominant down the stretch in his first year of full season ball at Lakewood. He has true front-line potential

      1. Romus – I’m playing with Randolph, Cozens, Hoskins, Gowdy, Sixto, Pinto and Medina in the next group. I had Cozens no. 8 last season, and despite some scary platoon numbers, I’d say he did nothing to deserve a drop in the rankings. Randolph played up the challenge of skipping Williamsport, but I’m at least somewhat concerned with the general lack of power (not merely home runs mind you). Still, both he (Randolph) and Cozens will be in my final Top 10.

        I’m loving the reports on Sixto’s velocity, still, such a small sample size. If he’s not Top 10, he’s no worse than 11th or 12th. I have Sixto, Medina and Pinto lumped together right now. Pinto is a very serious SP prospect –

        1. Nice decisions to make for change. Plus approx. half are in that ‘ MLB ready ‘category of AA and above experience.

          1. That AAA rotation is going to be something else. That entire LV roster is going to be something else. Should be fun.

            I’m also thrilled that I get to watch Kilome in person next year at Clearwater. Haven’t seen him in person since 2014

    1. Nick Williams will be down in my list – probably not in the top 10 and definitely not in my top 5. I’m getting a real Dom Brown vibe with him and I hate the plate discipline issues. I hope I’m wrong but I don’t think so.

      1. Are we still viewing Jake Thompson as a prospect or has he officially graduated? It’s not that clear to me.

        1. JimP’s rules from last year:
          “To be eligible for a list, a player must have rookie eligibility. To qualify for rookie status, a player must not have exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues, or accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the 25-player limit period, excluding time on the disabled list or in military service.”

      2. I hear you catch, but if you ever get a chance, take a look at his month to month splits. He was a borderline all-star for his first three months before an absolute brutal stretch beginning in mid July. He finished the year with 60 Ks to only 2 BBs in the final three months.

        I think 2017 and dealing with Brundage was mentally challenging for him. But he clearly showed the talent to excel at the AAA level. He still has some of the quickest hands in the minors. The hit tool is for real, and it generates power. I expect him to have a big year at LV in 2017 and force his way into the big club’s lineup.

        http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=608384#/splits/R/hitting/2016/MINORS

        1. Steve….actually I think it was Aug 3rd thru August 22nd, about 16/17 games…prior to that he was targeted for a September call-up….and the last two weeks of the season he more or less straightened himself trying to climb out of the hole.

  7. In my mind, guys like Quinn, Thompson and Eflin are no longer ‘prospects’ when it comes to lists. Yes you can option them down but for all intents and purposes their minor league development is done. It’s all a matter of sinking or swimming at the next level, even if it takes time for them to establish themselves. That’s the challenge for a GM – stick with them? Or move on?

    1. Keys for them:
      Quinn – simply health and can he handle a major league breaking ball?
      Eflin – knees and how many innings will he give you?
      Jake – trickiest to call but I think given time he will become a solid 3; question is, how much time?

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