Open Discussion: Week of November 7th

Here’s the open discussion thread for Phillies’ talk and other topics.  (Link to the Phillies’ tentative spring training schedule included below.)

With the completion of the Chicago Cubs’ comeback from a 3 games to one deficit in the World Series, the off season officially began at 9:00 AM Thursday morning.  The Phillies started their off season by activating Zach Eflin, Matt Harrison, Charlie Morton, and Aaron Nola from the 60-Day Disabled List.  They followed those transactions by declining their club options on Ryan Howard and Morton.  On Friday, the Phillies took the first step toward bolstering their bullpen when they completed a trade with the Houston Astros for RHP Pat Neshek.  The Phillies will relinquish a PTBNL or cash in the deal.  The Phillies then exercised Neshek’s $6.5 million club option for 2017.

The 40-Man Roster stands at 37 players.  But that includes five impending free agents – Andres Blanco, Peter Bourjos, A.J. Ellis, Jeremy Hellickson, and David Hernandez.

Key dates during the off season are as follows:

  • 11/3, 9:00 AM – Organizations began an exclusive five-day negotiation window (referred to as “the quiet period” in the CBA) with their own free agents.
  • 11/7, 5:00 PM – Deadline for organizations to submit qualifying offers to their free agents. This year’s QO is $17.2M.  This is also the deadline for organizations to exercise any club/mutual options.
  • 11/8-10 – GM meetings in Scottsdale, Ariz.
  • 11/8 – Free agents become eligible to sign with any team.
  • 11/14, 5:00 PM – Deadline for players to accept/reject qualifying offers.  Those who decline will become free agents.
  • 11/18 – Deadline for roster expansion to 40 players prior to the Rule 5 draft. (Since Nov 20th falls on a weekend, it is likely the Friday prior becomes the final date.)
  • 12/1 – The current collective bargaining agreement expires.
  • 12/2 – Deadline for teams to tender contracts to unsigned players on their 40-man rosters, including arbitration-eligible players.  Non-tendered players become free agents.  Tendered players who are arbitration eligible who do not accept the tender proceed to the arbitration process in February.
  • 12/5-8 – Winter Meetings in National Harbor, MD.
  • 12/8 – Rule 5 draft.
  • February – Salary arbitration hearings.
  • 2/14 – First workout for pitchers and catchers.
  • 2/17 – First full-squad workout.
  • 2/23 – Phillies’ spring training game v. University of Tampa.
  • 2/24 – Grapefruit League games begin.  Tentative schedule here.
  • 3/6-22 – World Baseball Classic.
  • 4/2-3 – Opening Night/Opening Day.

(Pinned Reminder:  One transaction that cannot take place is the release of Matt Harrison. He has a guaranteed contract and cannot be released until he has demonstrated that he has rehabilitated from his injury.  So, when contemplating the make up of the 40-man roster, remember that Harrison will be a member of the 40-man roster at least until the end of spring training when he can be added to the 60-day disabled list, if necessary.  If they release Harrison, they will will lose the insurance money on his $13M salary )

This link will take you to a roster page provided through a link at MLB Trade Rumors.  It’s projections are based on the current roster (Pat Neshek is already listed in the bullpen).  It doesn’t take trades of FA signings, but is pretty interesting.  I think the five bench players would cause apoplexy among Phillies’ fans if these projections came to fruition.  Frankly, Jesse Valentin seems like the most likely among the five, I expect Alfaro and Goeddel to play full time in AAA and Ruf and Asche to be elsewhere.  They project levels for most players, and even speculate on starting pitchers.  FYI, they project four of Williamsport’s starters to be Kevin Gowdy, Nick Fanti, Mauricio Llovera, and Sixto Sanchez.

Extra Innings

Matt Stairs was hired as the Phillies’ hitting coach.

It was leaked to MLB.com that John Kruk and CSN are discussing a deal that would bring Kruk to the Phillies to join their broadcasting team in some capacity.

Charlie Manuel was inducted into the Philadelphia Sports Hall of Fame.

Carlos Ruiz will be playing ball next season in Seattle.  He was traded by the Dodgers to the Mariners who will exercise his $4.5M option.

Other decisions involving big names include:

  • The Nationals picked up Gio Gonzalez‘ option, and declined Yusmeiro Petit’s.
  • The Mets exercised options for Jay Bruce and Jose Reyes, and declined Jon Niese’s.  They will QO Neil Walker.  Yoenis Cespedes has officially opted out  of the remaining two years of his existing contract.
  • The Indians‘ exercised Carlos Santana’s option, declined their option on Coco Crisp, and exercised their option on manager Terry Francona for the 2019-20 seasons.
  • The Rangers exercised Jonathan Lucroy’s option and will QO Ian Desmond.
  • The Giants exercised Matt Moore’s option.
  • The Royals picked up options for Wade Davis and Alcides Escobar.  Edison Volquez and Kendrys Morales have declined their halves of mutual options.  The Royals declined their options on Kris Medlin and Luke Hochevar.
  • The Red Sox have exercised their option on Clay Buchholz and declined Ryan Hanigan’s.
  • The White Sox declined their option on Matt Albers and released Daniel Webb. James Shields will not exercise his right to opt out of the remaining two years of his existing contract.
  • The Cardinals will not QO Brandon Moss, have exercised their option on Jaime Garcia, and declined Jordan Walden’s.
  • The Mariners have exercised their option on Seth Smith and declined Chris Iannetta’s.
  • The Tigers exercised their option on Francisco Rodriguez.
  • The Angels acquired Cameron Maybin from the Tigers and exercised his option.
  • The Astros have exercised their option on Evan Gattis.
  • The Blue Jays will QO Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista but not Michael Saunders, and have exercised Jason Grilli’s option.
  • The Cubs will tender a QO to Dexter Fowler, and have decided to decline Jason Hammel’s option.  Their action on Fowler comes after he declined his half of a mutual option.
  • The DodgersScott Kazmir has NOT exercised his opt-out clause.

In other sports news,

  • Bob Baffert became the first trainer to win three Breeder’s Cups.  He has won in 2014, 2015, and 2016.
  • Ireland ended one of sports longest droughts when they won a rugby match against New Zealand’s All Blacks.  The win was Ireland’s first EVER since the countries began playing each other 111 years ago.  Footnote, this was only the 29th time the teams have faced each other.  However, the internationally top-ranked All Blacks rode an 18 match winning streak into the match played in Chicago.
  • Navy’s head coach, Ken Niumatalolo, became the first in the academy’s history to defeat Notre Dame three times on the gridiron.  Notre Dame only had possession of the football six times in their 28-27 loss.
  • Penn State whipped Iowa, raised their record to 7-2, and might enter the Top 10 when the bowl committee issues this week’s rankings.  Their current #12 ranking is their highest since being ranked 12th on November 6, 2011.  They were last in the top 10 on September 20, 2009 when they were ranked 5th.

Winter league baseball has started.  (This section will begin appearing in the weekly minor league discussion.)

You can check on the progress of our prospects here.  Note that Latin American leagues that aren’t included in the Caribbean Series do NOT get their players’ results listed. That would be Latin American leagues other than the Dominican, Venezuelan, Mexican, and Puerto Rican. So, don’t expect to find stats for the kids playing in Nicaragua.

A weekly Prospect Discussion will begin posting tomorrow.   I’ll start the Reader Top 30 after the Rule 5 Draft and before Christmas with the intention of concluding the process before pitchers and catchers report to Clearwater in early February.

Cumulative transactions: (Transactions will continue to be listed here, minor league specific transactions will also be posted in the weekly minor league discussion.)

  • 11/7 – Raymond Mora assigned to DSL Phillies2.
  • 11/4 – Traded a PTBNL or cash to the Houston Astros for RHP Pat Neshek.
  • 11/3 – Philadelphia activated LHP Matt Harrison from the 60-day disabled list.
  • 11/3 – Philadelphia activated RHP Zach Eflin from the 60-day disabled list.
  • 11/3 – Philadelphia activated RHP Charlie Morton from the 60-day disabled list.
  • 11/3 – Philadelphia activated RHP Aaron Nola from the 60-day disabled list.
  • 11/3 – C A.J. Ellis elected free agency.
  • 11/3 – 2B Andres Blanco elected free agency.
  • 11/3 – RHP David Hernandez elected free agency.
  • 11/3 – 1B Ryan Howard elected free agency.
  • 11/3 – RHP Charlie Morton elected free agency.
  • 11/3 – RF Peter Bourjos elected free agency.
  • 10/26 – IF Juan Herrera assigned to DSL Phillies2.
  • 10/25 – Signed free agent RHP Alexis Araujo to a minor league contract.
  • 10/25 – OF Maximo De La Rosa assigned to DSL Phillies.
  • 10/25 – RHP Scot Hoffman assigned to Williamsport Crosscutters.
  • 10/25 – LHP Casey Brown assigned to Williamsport Crosscutters.
  • 10/15 – 2B Emmanuel Burriss elected free agency.
  • 10/13 – Signed free agent OF Luis Matos to a minor league contract.
  • 10/13 – RHP Frank Herrmann elected free agency.
  • 10/10 – RF Jimmy Paredes elected free agency.
  • 10/10 – LHP Patrick Schuster elected free agency.
  • 10/8 – DSL Phillies activated RHP Gregorix Mateo.
  • 10/7 – Outrighted Frank Herrmann, Dalier Hinojosa, Emmanuel Burriss, Patrick Schuster, Jimmy Paredes, and Colton Murray to Lehigh Valley.
  • 10/6 – Phillies signed free agent LHP Casey Brown to a minor league contract.
  • 10/5 – DSL Phillies activated 3B Leonardo Colagrossi from the 60-day disabled list.
  • Re-signed FA RHP Miguel Nunez
  • 10/6 – RHP Derwuin Marchan assigned to DSL Phillies2 (Signed July 2, 2016).
  • 10/4 – Signed NDFA RHP Scot Hoffman
  • 10/3 – RF Cedric Hunter elected free agency.
  • 10/3 – LHP James Russell elected free agency.
  • 10/3 – Signed free agent RHP Jose Perez to a minor league contract.
  • 10/3 – Signed free agent C Ronald Torrealba to a minor league contract.
  • 10/3 – Signed free agent RHP Luis Pacheco to a minor league contract.
  • Re-signed Chace Numata
  • The organization rosters are up to date.

267 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of November 7th

  1. Great work, Jim!

    I’m eager to see what transpires this week in Arizona. I think this will be an active off season for Klentak and co. Can’t help but think ’17’s roster will be VERY different from ’16’s. Also intrigued by what might happen in cases where selling high on certain (but not all of these) players:
    Velasquez (only for a serious return)
    Herrera
    Neris
    Rupp (though more likely later since signing a FA catcher like Ellis might not happen right away)
    Knapp (especially if Rupp stays)

    1. 8mark….you can cross Chooch off the list for a return to Philly as a veteran back-up since Mariners have him now and picked up his option.

    2. I think you will be disappointed because I expect the roster to look very similar except for a few changes. They’ll try to sign a veteran OF like Rasmus or Saunders, they’ll find another reliever, and they’ll find a veteran starting pitcher through taking on a big salary. And they need a back up catcher. They’ll try to resign Ellis first. He has the look of a future manager.
      Congrats to Chooch on getting another year in.

  2. Phillies now have two Araujo’s in their system…. one Elvis and one Alexis.
    Wow….one Irish teams breaks a losing spell, and the other may be starting a new one with a branch of the US military.

  3. i have the same starting 9 (assuming no trades or big FA signings) but agree with Jim about the Bench.

    Alfaro – needs to be a regular starter and it will be counterproductive to his development to serve as back up C. Knapp can fill that role (if no FA signing) especially if they can make Knapp play multiple positions (C/1B/LF).

    Ruf and Asche – see yah! Ruf is burried behind TJ, Hoskins, Stassi and any prospects they can play at 1B. If the Phils is afraid to lose Pullin, i like rather see him fill the LH reserve OF roll.

    Goeddel – trade him to the Reds for some LA (lottery type) prospects. This will create a much needed roster space and clear the path for better OF prospects.

    Valentin – I predict (and hoping) that Valentin will make the cut and possibly joining a veteran INF like Blanco until JPC is called up.

    1. Jeanmar can be a non-tender candidate too is his price tags goes up and Buchanan will be an ex-Phillie too if the Phils will need a roster space to protect better prospect or like a prospect that will be exposed in the Rule V draft.

    2. Again I think you are under valuing Goeddel, at least how the Phillies see him. I can’t imagine they would keep him as a rule 5 pick all season long to just trade him or have him as a 4th OF in LHV. He’ll prob start somewhere next year, long shot reading but more than likely LHV.

      1. @ Eric D – trading someone doesn’t necessary mean you are undervaluing that player. Trading in a position of strength is a sound strategy. The Phils have depth in the farm and Goeddel, Lively, Knapp, Tocci, Canelo, etc. are probably expendable via trade. Of course, you don’t trade players just for the heck of it. I don’t hate Goeddel, but he’s below the Of depth chart considering that the Phils needs to sign 1 or 2 OF.

        the fact that you cannot even project what role Goeddel can provide says something about it.

      2. @ Eric D – another factor that you’re missing in trading Goeddel (or any prospect that needs to be protected) is the roster spot that it will open – which can be use to a) protect better prospects; b) draft prospect in Rule V; c) sign FA that can be flipped; and d) absorb veteran as part of salary dump to get Comp picks or prospects.

        Goeddel (unlike Doobie last year) is not a lock to make the 25-man roster, so I’m not sure what value does he give the Phils other than it occupy a roster space and make some people sentimental about him not getting his chance. With Quinn, Williams, Cozens, Pullin, FAs and veteran OF that can be acquired, I don’t see Goddel jumping ahead of the line.

          1. @romus – yup, then Stephen, Jhailyn, etc. I mentioned in the previous thread that the used to be barren OF well is now loaded so some of the prospects can be traded so we can re-stock the lower minors and clear the way for better OF prospects to come up.

            i think it was the Reds who expressed heavy interest with Goeddel so I’ll start with them. Goeddel doesn’t have a lot of value so I’m ok dealing him for LA prospects.

            HOU got Francis Martes using that strategy.

            1. KuKo..makes sense. And his value may increase more so, if he gets out of the gate strong in LHV or even Reading. he needs to show more pop…specifically in HRs….if a corner OF is his final destination. Reds, as an example, have Hamilton for CF.

        1. I didn’t mean a trade wasn’t a possibility but never mind that. Oh i bet you the org sees Goeddel as a better prospect then Pullin (who ive said time and time again feasts on fastball but can’t hit anything off speed) . . . nothing wrong with him starting in the of at reading.

          1. @ Eric D – you’re probably right that “currently” the Phils values Goeddel more than Pullin (the weakest OF in the list that I provided as example) given that Pullin is not even guaranteed to be protected.

            you’re trying to use Pullin to value Goeddel but the point is – Goeddel’s “current value” is a 4th OF at best with Quinn, Williams, Cozens coming up at some point next year.

  4. Interesting to compare Cozens and Hoskins now that they’re getting a few more plate appearances in Winter ball.

    They’re stats are fairly similar except for K rate: Cozens 30 percent, Hoskins 17. And OBP: Cozens 303, Hoskins 383.

    They are equal in RBIs at 8 and similar in OPS at 767 for Cozens and 783 for Hoskins.

    Cozens has 60 plate appearances and Hoskins 59.

    Stassi continues to perform with a 1065 OPS and 24 percent walk rate in 110 plate appearances.

    Finally, Jeff “Out Of Nowhere” Singer continues to rack ’em up: zero ERA and 0.72 WHIP and eight strike outs with but one walk in 9.2 innings pitched.

    1. SWFL….Hoskins’ hit tool is exceptional for a big RHB power guy. Not much swing and miss for a guy with that many minor league HRs and doubles. Cozens, will be a work-in-progress when he gest to the MBL level when it comes to Krates and BA or OBP standards.
      Low K rates and high BB rates contribute to high OBPs and that is what Alvarez and Klentak may be looking for in hitters.

      1. for a player with POWER as his signature calling card – high K rate is almost inherent. In Cozens case – i will be more focused on the OBP and OPS. If Cozens hits at a decent average with power and can produce walks at a decent rate, the high K rate can be forgiven.

    2. I think, as they progress, Hoskins’ lower K rates and better hit tool are going to separate him quite a bit over the next few years from Cozens. I think Cozens may be quite a ways away from being a productive ML quality hitter (if he ever gets there at all).

      I have to say that Stassi continues to amaze me. I was one of the people who was saying that folks should forget about Stassi as a prospect (too old, not enough power, etc . . . ) – but he might be one of those 1 out of 100 guys who actually continues to improve and turns himself into a major league hitter in his late 20s. If possible, it would be really nice if they could hold onto him for just one more year to see what they’ve got. He could be surprisingly useful and could give them added flexibility.

      1. roster space will be the biggest challenge this offseason. If Hoskins will play 1B and Knapp is the C/1B/DH in LHV —- can the Phils squeeze Stassi as the LH bat 1B/LF (platooning with TJ or as a LH pinch hitter)?? I already looked past Stassi after his 2016 in AAA.

        1. Stassi’s AAA season was deceptively decent. The IL is a very hard league for hitters and light years from AA/Reading. He put up close to a .370 OBP and an OPS of .806 in his first year, he also had a much better second half I believe (can’t find splits anymore) and didn’t strike out a lot. I’d like to see what he could do in his second pass at AAA – he might really surprise some folks.

          1. Catch, unless they acquire a legit starting 1bman, I’d like to see Stassi brought up to platoon with TJ if only to scratch that itch many of us have had for a couple years now. Smooth glove and modest yet sound swing. Perhaps another Rico Brogna?

            1. I hear you – he hasn’t proven anything yet and he isn’t guaranteed anything – I just think it would be cool if he got one more chance. He sure as hell is not squandering his winter league opportunity. I also like the fact that he doesn’t strikeout very much and knows how to work a walk.

      2. Catch, I’m intrigued by Stassi, too. He’s definitely persistent, as is Cam Perkins. Somehow there should be a special place in Baseball Heaven for guys who persist like this. I guess it’s called the MLB Bench.

        Hoskins-Cozens is very interesting. I’ve been a Hoskins fan ever since seeing him play for the Threshers. Agree that Cozens could fall well behind if he doesn’t cut down on the Ks and solve other weaknesses. Of course, he has all that raw talent and power so he’s a prospectively monster player if he does. AAA will be interesting for both of them this year.

        Romus, interesting comment on Klentak and Alvarez preferences. I’d certainly agree with that approach, FWIW.

  5. The Phils should consider or make a run at Hammel, Saunders, Rasmus, Moss and Hochevar. Iannetta can be an option as a veteran back up C.

  6. The O’s will not extend Wieters a QO. I expect ATL will go hard after him since there’s no pick tied up to him anymore. I hope Klentak will consider Wieters or at least make ATL overbid for him.

    1. KuKo…rumors have the Yankees maybe thinking about dealing Brian McCann back to Atlanta. That would make Wieters availability higher.

      1. @Romus – agree. I think a McCann reunion also bodes well for ATL fan. I’m not fully sold yet on TJ and Rupp — and a switch hitting still 30 yo former highly touted C/1B player certainly get my interest. With Wieters age and pedigree as former can’t miss prospect, he can still have value as a trade chip if Alfaro eventually proved that he is the C of the future.

    2. If the Phillies think they can get good trade value for Cameron Rupp, a one or two year deal for Matt Wieters would hardly be the worst thing in the world. He could experience a very significant rebound the next year or two.

    1. The Ruf train left 3 years ago. He can blame RAJ all he wants, but he cannot bring back time. Ruf definitely can be a productive everyday player — maybe in AAA or IL.

      No need to be sentimental to 1-year (or less) veteran players. You might be right on Iannetta, (i personally like Wieters or jason Castro) but how much do u think a veteran back up C will play behind Rupp and with Alfaro and Knapp on the 40-man?

      Hammel, for a thin SP market is not the worst thing. Any veteran SP signed will be in the trading block by July.

    2. You’re correct that Ruf is not a part timer. Unfortunately, he’s also not a full timer.. Same for Asche.

      Both should be looking for work elsewhere in 2017 so the Phillies can use the roster spots to protect better prospects..

  7. When you look at the various motivations of FAs you typically have the following

    1. The ring chasers (Encarnacion, Bautista, Cespedes)
    2. Looking for the big/last pay day (Fowler, Holliday, Wieters)
    3. Looking for a place to start and play every day (Saunders, Rasmus, Davis)

    None of which are mutually exclusive

    We have very little shot at a ring chaser and with youth in the system that I surmise the FO wants to get a look at some more not many positions open for those looking to start every day.

    That leaves you with the guys that want to get paid. I’d be getting word around to all the agents that we are ready to hand out a really high AAV on 1 or 2 year deals (possibly even 3) and see who comes calling.

    Ideally you want a really professional hitter left handed to complement Joseph at 1B and 2 corner OF’s.

    A long shot but Werth is 38 owed $21 million in 2017. The Nats may be looking for cash to sign someone like Cespdes or Encarnacion.

    1. DMAR….a Werth reunion to Philly! Wow!
      Now that could generate plenty of conversation.
      And since he is a Star Wars ‘ version of a Chewbacca baseball mercenary, he may want to patrol a corner OF again at the Bank for only a year.

      1. Ha note I did say long shot he does I believe have 5 and 10 rights so he would have to agree to a trade. I would not bet on him wanting to leave the Nats for us.

        1. DMAR……good question of sorts….have to check, but I think the 5 and 10 rights only apply in the case of the original team a player is on, after they have reached arbitration eligibility, and signed their subsequent contract. Not sure it applies after their initial UPC. I think that is one reason why a few CBAs past instituted that clause in the players UPCs to have at their option the ability to pick what cities they can void a trade to and what cities they prefer.

          1. Romus and Dmar- I could be wrong but 5 and 10 rights refers to 5 years with the same team and 10 years in the league. So it doesn’t have anything to do with whether the player is on their original team or not.

      2. Interesting idea but he’d be too much of a distraction, plus the guy can’t stay on the field. And we certainly don’t need any ‘miserabes’ in the clubhouse.

        1. LOL a distraction from what? Swings and misses from chasing pitches out of the zone. I’m being humorous of course but I’ve never heard that Jayson is a bad team mate only that he can be aloof with the media.

  8. Think Moss would be good platoon partner with TJ. He can also play in the OF in an acceptable manner. However, he may want a 2 or 3 year deal ? or last big pay day ?

    1. Moss is exactly the type of player to look at. A near 10% walk rate still fairly young at 33; career earnings of $20 mil. You could offer a 2/$24 deal and not really be weighed down by it.

      1. I don’t see it. He had those two very good years for the As and since then, he’s also been slightly above replacement value and 33 is when a lot of average players see their productivity decline substantially. I’d probably rather have Michael Saunders than Moss or Holliday, but Saunders has his risks too and I don’t see the Phillies shelling out a lot of money for a guy who is a bad fielder.

        1. May come down to them bidding for Rasmus’ services…though an ab surgery may pose a longer recovery.

        2. I’m not badgering you Catch I just feel your missing the point. A guy like Moss (not my first choice) is just a guy you bring in to spell TJ and while he is hear talk to the kids about approach.

          not for nothing and with all do respect to our resident Canadian instructor its these types of players that can advance the younger guys.

          Saunders for sure is a useful piece given the dreck we ran out there. I’ve never really saw him as a grinder at the plate but upon further review he had a very respectable 1.5% BB rate last season. Albeit hitting in a pretty potent line-up.

          1. No, I get the point, but am not persuaded. The Phillies had those guys – Utley, Chooch, Howard and it didn’t work so I don’t see it working now. I’m not a big fan of significantly overpaying a player based upon some hope the player’s influence will rub off on others. I think it’s especially hard when the player is on the downside of his career. Once in a while, for a team that is trying to get over the hump it can be useful, but that’s not where we are in this rebuild.

  9. DMAR, I agree with you for the most part, but I think Holliday is no longer a last big contract guy. He may only get a 1 yr deal, and the Phils can overpay for him as far as I am concerned. I don’t care what they spend on a 1 yr deal. Also, with Rasmus coming off injury he may take a I yr deal to enhance his marketability and show he is healthy. Morrison and Moss are also names I would consider if the deal is for 1 year.

    1. Holliday has made close to $145 mil in his career. It could be tough to get him here. Though he has a ring he may want another.

      That said I would really float a number at him over 2 years to make it hard for him to turn down. Matt’s incremental value to guys like Franco and TJ would be huge.

      1. Matt Holliday was little more than a replacement level player the last two years. There is no point in throwing money at him; in fact, it is probably counterproductive.

        1. Interesting you would say that Catch Holliday has had a pretty remarkable career 303/382/515/897 over a near 10% BB rate and 16% K Rate.

          You don’t bring him hear to play 162 games. I think you underestimate the effect that type of veteran presence can have on young players trying to figure out how to be consistent at the MLB level.

          1. DMAR….Cardinals had him playing first base this year…first time in his career…at 37 years old he may a little too long in the tooth.

            1. Possibly from playing a corner OF spot which is all I would want him for (LF 80-100 games plus some DH in Interleague) specifically and I know even in his hey day he wasn’t a great fielder

              ….but I’m pretty sure when he digs in next year he will equal in OPS anything we end up running out there if not blowing it out of the water.

          2. Yeah, he was once a very good player but he’s hit the end of the line. If they had nobody to audition for a line-up spot in the outfield I might consider it, but they don’t have enough room there as it is – but, no, I would view him as an expensive impediment.

  10. JimP….11/18…..Friday, Nov. 18, 2016…MLB’s deadline for roster expansion to 40 players prior to the Rule 5 draft. I think since Nov 20th falls on a weekend , it is the Friday prior that becomes the final date.

  11. When it comes in determining a team’s market size and whether or not they are eligible to be in the lottery for one of the 12 Competitive Balance (CB) Picks as a ‘small market’, the following is what was developed from the last CBA.
    This may not change as to market size….but the CB lottery and if it goes forth, may be modified.
    Rank Club: 2012-2016
    1 NYY 1 NYM
    3 LAD 3 LAA
    5 CHI 5 CWS
    7 SF 7 OAK (Exempt until new stadium)
    9 TOR 9 PHI 9 BOS
    12 WSH
    13 ATL
    13 TEX
    15 HOU
    ————————
    15 Clubs
    16 SEA
    17 DET
    18 ARI
    19 MIN
    20 BAL
    21 COL
    22 SD
    23 MIA
    24 TB
    25 CLE
    26 STL
    27 KC
    28 CIN
    28 PIT
    30 MIL

  12. Matt Joyce is another name to consider along with Saunders and Rasmus. All one year guys and all bat lefty.

      1. Like Joyce as lefty platoon with Altherr. He walks a bunch but certainly is not a true anchor to the lineup that Phillies young hitters may need.
        That is why I prefer Reddick but for cost per production Joyce would be better choice and could be had likely by just out bidding his best offer.

  13. Weird that Aaron Brown and Scott Kingery have exactly the same OPS — .669 — in almost exactly the same number of at bats in the AFL.

      1. Yeah, small sample size in the AFL . . . but across the minors, not including the AFL (1044 PAs for Brown, 868 PAs for Kingery) their OPS marks are very close — they are within .010 of each other (.710 for Brown, .700 for Kingery).

  14. Plenty of pitching talent worth trading for a bag of balls in exchange for absorbing salary – Assuming Gio Gonzalez and Hellboy are out. Anibal Sanchez and Carlos Gonzalez would be good pickups. Cargo playing in the final year of contract and earning a trade to a contender.

    I think we have enough catcher to platoon at 1B and don’t need to bring in another veteran player to take ABs away.

  15. MAN I had the tar & feathers out for Hinkie lol Hellickson signed Now does he except ???? No means they go after Vet starter . Yes means we get Hellickson again. Some more FA Napoli , Derek Holland , Wilson Ramos. When the smoke clears let’s not forget the Phillies traded for Hellickson and Morton . The Rockies need catching they have 5 lefthanded outfields. A Blackmon or Cargo could be a target plus a 2 more relief pitchers. The last were last in runs starting Altherr and Quinn is not going to help that much . A vet bat or 2 will help with power and stike zone control . MK said it again in the Neshek trade zone, control pitchers and hitters. BTW note on Goeddel with 15 more lbs might be a very good prospect . If the Phillies didn’t see something in him they would have gave back. When he had a 1 month chance he did well .

    1. Tim…Goeddel would appear, right now, to be a 4th OFer.
      Now if he goes down to LHV and rakes, then who knows.
      But another 500 ABs in LHV may serve him well.

      1. Exactly Goeddel might be back up by june. Need 1 more trade for a power bat and a couple of reliever s and bench pieces.

    2. Considering the shallow SP market, I’m surprised that TEX decline Holland’s option. I hope the Phils consider signing him.

      I agree that COL is a very good potential trade partner for left handed OF.

      1. KuKo…think he is declining….injuries over last three years have taken their toll….this season saw his metrics further trend downward. FIP at 4.75 ouch,
        Its been 5 years since his break-out.

      2. Kuko, what would we have to give up to get Charlie Blackmon. That guy could play for me any day of the week. Real ball player.

        1. @ 8mark – with Wieters and Castro in the market (which the Phils can one or both sign both), I will offer Rupp, Knapp, groundballer pitcher Eflin (or Jake) for Blackmon + some low level minors.

        2. Guessing that Cargo will be the guy offered by Rockies. I think they are probably at “take best offer” for him. Still has pedigree that could get them a good prospect.

      3. I like the Neshak signing. I think they have a decent shot at flipping him. The real head-scratcher, for me, is the fact that Klentak didn’t pick up Charlie Morton’s option. He looked good before tearing his hamstring. 9.5 million for a guy who may have been a hot commodity at this year’s trade deadaline would have been a very good investment.

        1. As recently as last week, he was still working out at the Complex (per one of my “guys”). Even though the gossip was favorable, they must have seen something that deterred them from picking up his option. Maybe they think they can sign him for cheaper? Or, maybe they just aren’t satisfied with his health. In any case, they certainly had eyes on him down here.

            1. Yeah, I think they want him, but his contract was way above market rate due in large part to his age and the injury.

          1. I think the contract was just too rich for the Phillies with him coming off the injury and Morton knew it. However, his comments earlier in the year suggest that Morton really likes the Phillies and I think the Phillies really like him. I believe he re-signs with the team unless some other team flies in out of nowhere and gives him a deal he can’t refuse. If he’s healthy, I’d give him a 70 percent chance of returning to the Phillies which is fine by me. His stuff was nasty.

  16. Early Vegas Odds For 2017 WS Winner:

    Chicago Cubs: 7/2
    Boston Red Sox: 9/1
    Los Angeles Dodgers: 9/1
    Washington Nationals: 12/1
    Cleveland Indians: 14/1
    New York Mets: 14/1
    San Francisco Giants: 14/1
    Toronto Blue Jays: 14/1
    Houston Astros: 16/1
    Texas Rangers: 16/1
    Baltimore Orioles: 22/1
    Detroit Tigers: 22/1
    St. Louis Cardinals: 22/1
    New York Yankees: 25/1
    Seattle Mariners: 25/1
    Pittsburgh Pirates: 28/1
    Kansas City Royals: 33/1
    Chicago White Sox: 40/1
    Miami Marlins: 40/1
    Los Angeles Angels: 50/1
    Colorado Rockies: 66/1
    Tampa Bay Rays: 66/1
    Milwaukee Brewers: 75/1
    Oakland Athletics: 75/1
    Arizona Diamondbacks: 100/1
    Atlanta Braves: 100/1
    Cincinnati Reds: 100/1
    Minnesota Twins: 100/1
    Philadelphia Phillies: 100/1
    San Diego Padres: 100/1

    1. Yeah. I would have a hard time trading Vince Velasquez, but the Yankees (IMO) have the best farm system in baseball. If they were willing to knock my socks off (Gleyber Torres, James Kaprelian, Blake Rutherford or Nolan Martinez), I would probably have to do the deal.
      I think Klentak will pull the trigger on a big deal again this winter. My gut thinks it will involve Odubel Herrera.

      1. Velasquez and Herrera to Texas sounds like a plausible trade. Reports had trade talks involving VV rather serious at the deadline. Their GM Daniels said publicly that he wished he had Odubel back. It had just better be a huge return for those two. (If not, Velasquez to the Yankees seems to be gaining traction.) We already drew deeply from the Rangers’ system in the Hamels deal. How much is left worthy of a Doobie/VV deal? At least one big league impact player would have to be included.

      2. Hinkie….Nolan Martinez may be a good option for the third leg of the return.
        With ViVe…that TJ and other health injuries will loom like a black cloud over him from here on out. You would hope it doesn’t manifest into something detrimental to his pitching performances in the future, but right now his value is high so take the risk.
        Cashman is a shrewd GM…..not like Dave Stewart of D-Back fame, so Torres and Kaprielian are had…..I think Rutherford, Judge and Frazier probably not, but Martinez can be.

    2. Do not in courage Hinkie ssshhhh geez he likes Injury riddle pitches . The Phillies were dead last in runs we did hitters . The have so many pitcher’s in the minor leagues that you could make 3 legit rotations. Herrera , the will have to go out and get 3 outfielder’s in Free agency in they loss him. When Mickey Mo does make It up you can move Herrera to left his hit tool and power are superior then Quinn’s . He also stays healthy which we all know Quinn hasn’t in the last 5 yrs. Quinn also needs AAA atbats .

    3. I will be open to trading VV (because of Health concerns) that will be around a Cole Hamels package.

      A VV trade is a one that can make (look brilliant) or break (look bad) a GM. Too bad Dave Steward is not a GM of any team right now.

  17. MLB Trade Rumors has there Top 50 FAs and destinations. They have Desmond to Phils, 4/$60M, and a 1 yr deal to Edinson Volquez. I don’t see either of those 2 happening, Desmond because I don’t see any 4 yr deal being offered, and Volquez because I think there will be significantly better options.

      1. I think it depends on who signs Hellickson. The pick we get back for him could wind up being in play if its higher than the 2nd round pick.

  18. Romus, another reason Desmond won’t be here. There are enough lefthanded bats to get a guy, even if it is to start in a platoon situation. Remember when the Phils signed Geoff Jenkins and Jayson Werth to platoon? By mid-season, Werth won the every day job. I can see that happening again.

    1. MLBTR has JH going to the Rangers for 4@$60M…no way Boras settles for that with one of the best on the market this year.
      IMO, I think he asks to start at 5@$90M and then works his way down to somewhere around 5@$80M.

      1. Nobody is giving more than 4 yrs unless you’re a prospective hall of famer. Days are over for megadeals for mediocrity.

        1. I’d bet my house that that’s not the case. I’ve seen these free agent cycles now for almost 40 years. Usually the way it works is that teams give too much money and too many years for a group of mediocre free agents, the market sours for 2 or 3 years and then a few years later a bunch of desperate teams overpay for another group of mediocre free agents. I don’t see that cycle coming to an end anytime soon.

        2. 8mark…watch and see. JH is relatively young and at the age where the 5 year deal is what they seek…..plus teams know the big risk, especially with those year or so on their contracts…they want those first 2/3 years of high WAR equivalency and possible playoff winnings.

  19. Whatever contract he gets, the Phils get a really good pick. That was a big win for Klentak and would have been duplicated had Morton stayed healthy. They need to re-do that for this year. Maybe even cash in at the trade deadline, but at the least get a high draft pick.

  20. Then you are hoping anyone but the Twins, Reds, Padres, Rays, Braves, A’s, DBacks, Brewers or Angels sign him.

    1. It won’t matter to the Phillies who signs Hellickson. They’ll get a comp pick after the first round (roughly 1-26) if he signs with anyone other than the Phillies. Those teams you mentioned (bottom ten records) will forfeit their 2nd round pick instead of their first rounder, but it will have no effect on the Phils’ comp pick.

  21. Whoever we trade or don’t trade, I’d like very much for us to get a big league piece. I’m done with acquiring depth unless we trade from our current depth. One or two veteran position players age -30+ would help accelerate the rebuild in a more definitive direction. I don’t want us to be 3 yrs away from being 3 yrs away due to the over emphasis on “look at all this young talent in our system!” I have no expectations for 2017. However I’m not forfeiting 2018 especially with the better FA market following the next 2 seasons.

    1. I think they are probably considering it, but will likely pass. If this was 2018 or 2019, they might be one of the bigger bidders for his talents.

      1. Agree with Catch. They’re not going to sign a big $$$ FA this year. They’ll be a little more serious next year. But, IMO, they want to have as much cap room to be able to go all in after the 2018 season. I believe Manny Machado is their dream FA signing. MacPhail and Klentak, obviously, have Machado connections.

    2. @Matt13 – NYY, LAD and SFG are into Yoenis and NYY and LAD will let any other teams outbid them. And even if the Phils will try, Yoenis will most likely go to a contender since the $$ will be pretty much within the range of all the bidder.

    3. No, Cespedes has shown he wants that out clause in the contract so he will be looking for a deal that he can redo in 2 years. The Phillies are not going to be good for another 2 years so it doesn’t help them much at this time.

    1. This is i think is a wise use of $$. The impact of course is not immediate, but the success will benefit the organization for years.

      1) Clean House/Fire nonperforming resources – CHECK!
      2) Infrastructure/Analytics – CHECK!
      3) Improve Scouting Department – CHECK!
      4) Player Development – Hire the best coach – NEXT STEP
      5) World Series – TARGET: 2020

      1. Agree, KuKo. This is a sign that the new regime has a pulse on the organization. Klentak gets prematurely criticized here often. But it’s not just about him. Ownership on down are making steady incremental progress with their decision making.

        I’ll go for 2019 NLCS!

      2. You nailed it KuKo! You can add to that list:

        1. Restock the Farm – CHECK!
        2. Bottom out in standings to obtain high first round pick and bigger pool amounts – – CHECK!

        1. @ catch – agree with you so don’t look at me for the 1-star. Although I check the “Clean the house of nonperforming resources” the work isn’t 100% done yet as the Phils still need to purge the 40-man roster of stiffs and scrubs.

    2. Hopefully, this new Mental Skills coach Geoff Miller make Cesar Hernandez his 1st student. 4 months should make wonders for Cesar.

    3. Very encouraging, Romus. Hey and how about Charlie Hayes coach the GCL team! Man he sure could pick it at 3b.

      Mental skills coach is a great position to add to this staff. A few players will need him in the dugout since he can’t follow them on the basepaths or stand at the plate whispering to them. But seriously a real good move that should send a message to all concerned.

      1. 8mark….think they are prepping for the inter draft with the scouting additions…heard MLB is wanting a 10 round draft. So the added scouting will have an impact there. Just wondering where Sal A. falls in all these org changes in that department. Hope the Phillies do not lose him.

        1. Sal A (international) and Johnny A (domestic) are the top gurus of the scouting department so i expect that these new scouting additions will be under either Sal A and Johnny A umbrella.

          1. Thought the same but maybe Velandia is moving up more notches?
            And this baseball ops org chart is probably outdated now with these changes..
            Matt Klentak…Vice President and General Manager
            Scott Proefrock…Assistant General Manager
            Ned Rice…Assistant General Manager
            Pat Gillick…Sr. Advisor to the President and General Manager
            Dallas Green….Sr. Advisor to the General Manager
            Charlie Manuel…Sr. Advisor to the General Manager
            Benny Looper…Sr. Advisor, International Operations
            Bart Braun…Special Assistant to the General Manager
            Charley Kerfeld….Special Assistant to the General Manager
            Jorge Velandia….Special Assistant, Player Personnel
            Ed Wade….Special Assistant, Baseball Operations
            Sal Agostinelli….Director, International Scouting
            Johnny Almaraz….Director, Amateur Scouting

            1. @romus – I see. Velandia (and the other Sr Advisor and Special Assistant) might be higher in the Org Chart but I still see that Sal and Johnny (both Scouting Directors) are still the main trust when it comes to Scouting. Basically, if Klentak (the GM) is the Battalion Commander, the Assistants to the GM are the Ex-O, the Special Assistants and Sr Advisor will be the battalion staff while Sal and Johnny are the Company commanders. For me it means that both Sal and Johnny are the boots on the ground and still responsible for the nuts and bolts and reporting directly to the Battalion Commander not to the Ex-O or the staff unless the tasks is specifically delegated to them.

              I don’t think Velandia will undermine both Sal and Johnny and I see it as Klentak providing a dedicated resource to work with Sal and Johnny since he has other responsibilities to address. I think this is still a good move for the organization.

            2. Sir, yes Sir!!

              I still prefer Dylan “The Tank” Cozens and Rhys “H-Bomb” Hoskins as nickname of the Bash Brothers.

  22. Fangraphs chat today with Eric L.
    ………Cesar Hernandez just put up a 4 WAR season, which translates to about a 65 FV on the scouting scale. Would a prospect with his tools ever come close to a 65 FV projection?

    Eric A Longenhagen: No and I don’t think he’s a 4 WAR player going forward. Defensive metric outlier is a huge red flag there. more of a 1.5-2 WAR player for me, a 45.

    1. Yep he’s on mark usually , C Hernandez it’s funny some body would ask a question about him. He’s 27 and no longer a prospect.

      1. He might not be a prospect but consider he is a proven everyday MLB (switch) hitter who cannot become a FA until 2021. That’s 4 more controllable years which is extremely valuable.

        And here’s the thing about his defense is it great…no but its not like he is a butcher out there either. He had a .981 Fielding % on 643 chances. So for a 27 y/o which is more likely about his defense

        A. It gets better
        B. It remains about the same
        C. It gets worse

    2. I think he’s selling Cesar a little short because Cesar has historically improved all facets of his game; but I get it. He probably did outkick his coverage a little this year.

      That said, the fact that he came on very strong in the second half suggests that at least part of the improvement may, to a great extent, be real and permanent. We shall see.

      1. MLBTR just posted a report speculating the Angels pursuing an everyday 2b. Cesar H is mentioned in lieu of a reunion with a declining Howie K.

        1. Outside of Trout the Angels don’t have anything we want for Cesar do they? Maybe Jahmai Jones…

          If they want to make Freddy their everyday 2B I’ll take any of the following Long, Meyer or Gatto

          1. Pretty sure the Angels would not give up Jahmai Jones for Cesar Hernandez.
            Also, Meyer is the best of the three Angels pitchers you listed, but … if Klentak was willing to deal Galvis, he could do a lot better than one of those three. Joey Gatto is from my area. I’d love to see him succeed, but he has been an absolute bust since being drafted a couple of years ago. I know I sound like a broken record … but I love James Paxton. Seattle needs a SS and OF help. If they were willing to deal Galvis, I’d package him with Odubel Herrera to Seattle for Paxton and this year’s second round pick Joe Rizzo.

            Tim’s post listing eight different reasons why he hates this idea in … 3 … 2 … 1 …

            1. Hinkie….where does Cano go in that situation? Cano is now too old to switch positions other than to first base and may be a little height challenged for that.
              Cesar is not a replaceable WAR player for Cano.

            2. Hinkie….sorry thought you mentioned Cesar…see it is Galvis….that makes more sense. I guess the only red-flag with Paxton is durability, but he has all the other ingredients to be a mid -to-top guy.

    1. I’m looking forward to Kingery-JPC double play combo in 2018 so Cesar and Freddy as starters to me is down to 1 year – 2017. I still don’t see the Phils winning in 2017 and I want them to be in the Top 10 again for 2018 Rule IV so I’m OK making a deal for Kendrick as a salary dump if that will bring back a prospect.

      Kendrick + a prospect (Chase de Jong, Diaz, Heredia) for a choice of Galvis or Cesar is reasonable for me.

      1. Saw a local scribe indicate the Tigers and Phillies would make a good partnership in a trade…..with JD Martinez and Anibal Sanchez coming Philliy’s way.
        And then use them as trade currency come july if there were interest.
        That was talked about on here last week.

        1. @romus – I remember that and someone is not happy about Anibal and another think that JD will cost a lot — but as package, the Phils will only need to give up secondary (depth i certain positions) to get it done.

        2. Al definitely wants to dump salary so it depends what they want back. Usually if you are taking on salary you are also getting a young solid controllable player. JD is a Free Agent in 2018 and will be 30. Great offensive player when healthy but pretty bad in the OF.

          If they aren’t really asking for much and they just want to unload the $ on us I’d do that deal.

        3. Yes Martinez would be trade bait buy IF he’s as productive as he’s been the past few years I would pursue an extension. He’s not even 30 yet. I could live with his sub-standard defense if he gives us 30+ HRs and .350+ OBP. That would be the more effective way to coach plate discipline – have a guy in the middle of the lineup demonstrating.

      2. This is a highly likely scenario I think. The Dodgers definitely need a long term solution at 2B to pair with Seager.

        I think Cesar has more value with his high OBP skills but I could be wrong They can have either one. I’d try to land De Leon or Alvarez if they want to deal me a pitcher (straight up) or if they want to deal me a position player I need two Lux and Hansen…

        1. DMAR….is that RHP Yadier Alvarez in a deal from the Dodgers you are referring to?.
          Not sure they will let him go…Fansgraph Eric L. rates him at near if not at the top of the pitchers food chain in the minors..

          I am the walrus: What’s your opinion on Yadier Alvarez? Is he a potential #2?
          12:54….Eric A Longenhagen: Potential #1, perhaps the highest upside arm in the minors.

          1. Yes Romus…If they want Cesar and they want me to take all of Howies money or De Leon if they don’t want to give up Alvarez. I’d take him as well or they have to give me Lux and Hansen.

            I don’t really need Kendricks he does nothing for me

            How about we take on Ethiers money give them Freddy to play 2B and get one of those packages?

            1. DMAR….you sure are making it hard on Chase Utley trying to come back to the Dodgers, aren’t you! 🙂
              …..Cesar and then Freddy to go out there and replace him.

              But in theory I like the idea of taking on money for prospects.
              Have the Phillies under MacKlentak done that yet?
              Not sure that is in their DNA.
              They have had a few opportunities and so far zilch.
              Maybe it is too early for them to do that, with so many prospects in the ‘ready to play’ MLB mode right now
              .

            2. $30,500,000 Romus that is their projected 2017 payroll they better wratchet that up some don’t you think?

            3. DMAR…you are preaching to the choir…..yes they should do something with a little more financial bite involved…..especially since the first Comcast payments of $63M was recd this past year and the next annual payment of approx $63M will be forthcoming in 2017.
              The natives may start to get restless soon.

            4. LAD sometimes can are trigger happy when in comes to trades but they are also one of the few teams that employing “salary dump for prospects” may not work because of their almost unlimited financial resources.

              Kendrick in not happy with his role and I don’t think LAD thinks that Kendrick is part of their future (they probably regret the Dee Gordon-Andrew Heaney-Howie Kendrick trade that happened years ago). LAD is probably try to get what they can get from Kendrick so I don’t think that they will go aggressive crazy to dump him. LAD can probably release Kendrick, coughed up the 1-yr remaining $$ and move on.

              LAD is in win-now mode so if they will part with a top prospect like de Leon or Alvarez, they will probably talk to DET for Ian Kinsler since DET made everybody available.

              PHI is pretty much is a 1-year relationship with Cesar right now (with Kingery coming up) so sell high and don’t need to be greedy about it.

    2. If it’s a low level prospect, I think that’s a neat trade – Kendrick is the kind of Swiss army knife player we need right now and makes other players (who could generate a good trade return) expendable. Good thinking, Klentak!

  23. Some of the creative scenarios I will consider if I’m Klentak.

    TEX – inquire what they want for Profar. If they want to do a Doobie-Profar swap (probably plus another SP they need so I’ll offer Asher or Lively and even Jake if TEX will send another prospect back).
    LAD – inquire if they want to swap Kendrick + a lower minor prospect (Heredia, Diaz) for Cesar or Galvis.
    DET – inquire about Martinez and Anibal (I already brought this up in a separate thread last week). I will offer a combination between Knapp Lively, Tocci, Canelo, Grullon, Pujols (Phils should NOT offer a lot since they will be absorbing $$).
    COL – inquire about any of their LH OF. Trade package (2 to 3) combination of Rupp, Knapp, Lively, Eflin, Jake and some of the lower minors depending what position COL needs and who they will give up.
    NYY – inquire interest with Vinny. If they will offer Torres, Kaprielian, Chance Adams and Dillon Tate — I will pull the trigger.
    CUBS – inquire availability of Jorge Soler and will dangle a package of Neris + Altherr (who can play a decent CF and a good 4th OF) for Soler and a prospect.
    TB – at least inquire if they have interest with Knapp (if Knapp is not traded yet).

    Sign the following FAs:

    LHP Derek Holland – (very high) incentive laden 1 year contract. Consider RHP Jason Hammel and Morton (on incentive laden) too if Holland did not sign. Keep a close eye on RHP Henderson Alvarez.
    C/1B Matt Wieters – $60M/4 yrs or $50M/3 yrs. Will also consider signing Jason Castro if Matt Wieters will not sign.
    OF – sign one of the top LH OF corner bats starting with Rasmus, Saunders, etc.
    RP – sign any of the following veteran RPs if there’s available spot – Drew Storen, Luke Hochevar. Mike Dunn and Travis Wood are the LHP that I will consider.

    The trades with TEX (with Profar), COL (for LH OF) and NYY (with Torres, etc) are the scenarios that I will continue to explore. In my hypothetical trade the Phils;

    Acquire – Profar, LH OF (Blackmon) and prospects Torres, Kaprielian, Adams and Tate
    Lose – Doobie, Vinny, Rupp, Knapp, Asher and Lively (probably some B-level prospects)

    In this scenario, the Phil can further explore a trade with CHI SOX for Chris Sale since CHI SOX expressed heavy interest with Profar, and with the Vinny package that the Phils will get from NYY – Phils will create flexibility to mix and match (i.e. Profar + Dillon Tate + Appel + somebody, etc).

    The 2017 team will look as follow:

    C – Wieters, INF – TJ, Cesar (Kendrick), Galvis, Franco, Blackmon, Quinn, Altherr (or Soler/Martinez via trade or veteran FA). Alfaro (move Wieters to 1B), JPC and Kingery, Nick will reinforce the team as some point.

    SP – Sale, Nola, Eickhoff, Holland (or Hammel or Morton), Jake (of Eflin)

    RP – Nishek, Cordero, Hochevar, Joely, SevGon, Ramos and Neris (if not trade or FA like Storen)

    1. KuKo, that’s a mouthful, my head is spinning. Very impressed. If we do 1/3 of all that, I’ll be happy. I do favor JD and Blackmon out of all those names with a VV deal to NYY if the haul is huge.

      1. @8mark – i know, it too much. In reality, i only expect Klentak to do subtle moves making incremental overall progress and probably reload for bigger FA spending in the near future. So none of the above hypothetical trades will probably happen but it’s just fun to think and discuss about it.

        If Hellboy will not accept the QO, Klentak will sign a veteran SP for 1-year, another veteran RP and a couple of veteran position players (OF, INF) and get ready for Spring Training.

        1. I loved the work you put into this KuKo. A couple points. You don’t want Sale the arm is a ticking time bomb; he knows it and the Org knows it and its why he hasn’t received an extension and is the underlying point of contention between the two.

          He is best suited for a team built to win in the next year or two.

          I also don’t think you want any parts of Profar he’s not been close to the player he was since the surgery.

    2. KuKo……’tis a lot to digest.
      I will say this much…I would avoid Jorge Soler. unless you can get him on the virtual down-low. I think in Nick Williams you have a player with more upside and defensive abilities Soler has just too much swing and miss…over 25% in close to 800 PAs. for my liking.

      1. The inevitable is this JP is coming up to play SS in the near future which makes Freddy expendable. I need to be somewhat blown away before I deal Cesar.

      2. @romus – the COL trade is the main one that I will try to work out (Blackmon for Knapp + Lively + Tocci) because of the need and the Vinny to NYY and Doobie to TEX are just to gauge interest. DET is a possibility but I see them asking for more (i.e. Alfaro, Kilome, etc) so thanks but no thanks to them. I agree with Soler, but it’s prudent to see if the Phils can buy low on him — Soler for Altherr swap maybe (if they can’t sign Fowler back)?

        Holland, Hammel, Wieters, Storen and Hochevar (and to the extent Henderson Alvarez) — I hope Klentak at least try pursue them.

        1. Soler for Altherr? I think you’re overstating Altherr quite a bit. Throw in Thompson and you could make that deal. No thanks. And Blackmon for what you offered would never happen. It would take much more. Need to evaluate more fairly. Lively and Knapp have little trade value at this point. What is Blackmon out of Colorado?

          1. I am not high on Soler…..but Neris and Altherr would be overpayment IMO.
            Cubs have no need for Soler….he is a defensive liability and a swing and miss guy with low OBP. Altherr solves their 4th OFer situation if Schwarber has to be replaced for a defensive guy late in the game. And Neris strengthens their bullpen that much more…though they will probably lose Chapman next month

          2. @murray – my proposal is based on the thought of buying low on Soler which the Cubs did not utilize enough and expendable to them. Altherr maybe light but Altherr provides the flexibility (and some potential) to the Cubs. Another possibility is to add Neris (to replace Chapman if the Cubs can’t resign him) but the Phils need to get a prospect in return like Carson Sands at a minimum.

          1. Dillon Gee is a good consideration (I thought the Phils will get him when he was put on waivers) although I intentionally don’t look at his way because he’s a Met.

  24. Is this the time to trade Cesar at a high? It appears he has trade value now while I’m not sure what his future here in Philly will be. Not for Kendrick though. Give me a prospect instead. Sign a free agent instead for a corner OF and just let Blanco play 2b until other options

    1. I can’t see a Cesar for Kendrick trade -that’s a dumb trade by any measure. If they trade Cesar it’s either going to be a flip for higher end minor league prospects (now, the Phillies might take on a contract as part of that trade, and Kendrick could be in that type of deal) or as part of a package for a premier player who is likely to be on the next Phillies playoff team. But trading a young Cesar just for a stop gap player like Kendrick would be idiotic and I don’t see it happening.

      1. @catch – 1-for-1 swap is not a good idea, but if the LAD throws some prospect(s) – then it becomes viable. LAD will not throw their top prospects unless it’s a legit MLB stud, but, LAD show penchant giving up multiple secondary prospects (i.e. JRoll – Eflin, Windle; Roberto – Arano, Valentin; Chase – Sweeney, Richy; Chooch – Berj-guy + LA guy, etc).

        LAD will not give up deLeon and Alvarez for Cesar. But if the Phils ask for 2 of deJong, Diaz, Heredia or some other Top 20-30 prospects, It’s a high probability that LAD will pull the trigger.

        We’ve seen Cesar for a while now and it’s enough time and sample size to evaluation what type of player he can be. He is still improving and relative young that’s why the Phils can cash in with him – which is fine since by the time the Phils contend again, it will be Kingery-JPC combo that we will see.

  25. It’s funny, the word is that the Phillies could be dangling Hector Neris in trade talks much the way they held Giles out last year. I’m not against that in principle, but if they trade Neris, they need to get a haul back from another team, as they did with Giles. Unlike Giles – who I think had already reached his peak (although he could stay near peak for several more years) – I think Neris may have even more unrealized upside and has the type of stuff that might carry him to a long career. Very few pitchers that I’ve ever seen throw a splitter that is as nasty as the one Neris throws. He throws it pretty hard and it both moves and sinks like crazy. His command of the pitch is only okay now, but if it gets even better, he could be virtually unhittable. So, yeah, they can trade him, but if they are not careful about getting the right players in return, they could get to 2018 or 19 looking to establish a lights out bullpen and wish they hadn’t traded him.

    1. Neris throws a splitter or the old forkball…..split ball pitchers do not seem to last….Bruce Sutter and Mike Scott may be the only relievers to have continued success that I can recall…and Sutter had it difficult doing it 2 or 3 years in a row. Teams do not even teach the pitch to prospects in the minors because of the issues for almost certain arm problems. Dan Haren was the only starter who I knew threw it and he said he only threw it less than 20%.
      But Neris is still relatively young enough..age28 season in 2017… to put together some plus seasons and would think his value right now is at its highest peak.
      IMO, I would move him now…as Branch Rickey said, a year early is better than a year late. And he also appears to have the closer mentality, so if they do trade him, I hope they can get back a very hefty return.

      1. Romus, I would trade Neris (as well as VV and Odubel) ONLY in a high impact trade, where we get EITHER a difference making position player who’ll be around for more than a year OR at least one or two top prospects. Rupp might be another guy but his value won’t return as much unless packaged with other pieces.

        1. 8mark…..I would be reluctant right now in moving OH. As for Neris….now is the time for a move To me anyway, he seems to be a 2 year guy then things begin to trend downward. Which as far as relievers are concerned, is no new revelation. Relievers tend to be very fluid.

    2. @catch – I’m pretty sure that the Phils and MLB teams know the value of a young, cheap and still development bullpen arm with plus plus stuff. Unlike when the Phils are contending during RAJ time, McKlentak has time and patience in their side, thus, have more time to scout and evaluation potential trade returns.

      Here’s my take on why the Phils need to move Neris – NOW:

      1) potential arm issue – agree with Romus about the usage of the splitter. any health issues with pitchers worries me that’s why I’m also open to deal VV for a very good package.
      2) pipeline – the Phils have a very good supply of back end bullpen arm – Ramos, Cordero, Arano, Edgar Garcia, (maybe) Rivero and SP that can turn to pen like Appel, Tirado, Anderson). By the time the Phils contend, Neris is probably breaking down and some of the pitchers I mentioned will be part of the future bullpen.
      3) FA – some teams shy away signing elite closer at high $$, thus, chances are elite closers will be available in FA every year and the Phils have no issue spending $$ for closer if the right time comes.
      4) RP shell life – unless the Phils have a crystal ball and see the next Mariano Rivera in Neris, Neris might be on the down side when the Phils start to contend.

      Giles was put on the market because an elite shutdown guy is a luxury to a rebuilding team. This same logic applies to Neris. Neris is trending up, so sell high now.

      1. All, Interesting discussion on Neris. Lots of good arguments both ways.

        On the other hand, to me trading Cesar is a slam-dunk. He’s coming off a good year. He’s young enough to improve some more. Yet he’s not part of the future core, or so most think. Trade him now, assuming a fair return, and begin to clear the way for the next core to come up.

        1. With you on Cesar, Frank. I can see LAD opting for his services via trade (again, 2 mid level prospects from the Dodgers) vs re-signing Chase or keeping Howie K.

      2. Just to be clear – I’m not saying they shouldn’t trade him. I’m saying they should do it only if they get really good value in return. The point about split-fingered pitchers and relief pitchers in general is valid, but he’s also pretty young and cost controlled for a long time. They can trade him, but they need to get some serious value in return.

        1. And to that end I’m not sure what you think the value of Neris is. Other clubs probably like the stuff too but a team like the Cubs or the Yankees is not going to trade for him to use as their closer.

          In other words he is not bringing you Chapman or Miller type prospects probably not even Giles type value when he has never really closed before.

  26. Hey Jim – a thought. How about a separate discussion topic on who to protect on the 40? We have until 11/18 to discuss it. There are 32 spots filled currently with 8 open. However the 32 includes Ruf, Buchanan, and Klein as probably the next 3 spots to open up. Any free agents to be signed by 11/18? How many spots do we need? There are definite guys to protect and then there are the maybes like Anderson, Pullin, Tocci, Nunez, and Pujols. Good topic!

    1. On my list, I’m protecting 11 which means I need the 3 spots opened up. My list of guys available for rule 5 would be Pujols, Tocci, Canelo, Grullon, Valentin, Rivero, Dominguez, Pullin, Suarez, Perkins, Leibrandt, Leiter, Walding, Green, Morris, Tromp, Watson, Duran.
      Who will we lose?

        1. And I wasn’t saying there was 0% chance we lose any of those guys I’m just betting none of those guys would get taken/kept on a 25 man roster.

      1. On that list, you could lose Valentin (he has skills – could easily slot in as a back-up infielder on any team for a year), Canelo (someone might carry him for the same reason – has a high upside on defense), or Dominguez (easy to hide high upside BP arm for a year as a 12th man). Also, Pullin probably wouldn’t be selected but if he were, I’d be disappointed – I still think he has a chance to be decent.

        1. On the whole, however, I think there’s a decent chance (30-40) that Valentin goes – the chance anyone else gets selected is much lower.

      2. My 11th guy protected is Anderson. I think they’ll lose him if not protected because the reports on him were very good. There are still problems though because they will need a spot for a backup catcher and backup infielder and 1b. Some of the fringy AAA bullpen arms may have to be removed from the 40 then, like Araujo, Gonzalez and Garcia. I think Mariot will be kept and be on the 25 in the pen as will Morgan and Joeley.

        1. Harrison will go back on the 60 DL later. That will allow them to resign Blanco then. A free agent OF and another veteran reliever will be added too. Spots will be tight. A 2 for 1 trade would help

    2. MUST PROTECT (9)

      Knapp
      Pivetta
      Lively
      Appel
      Williams
      Cozens
      Pinto
      Garcia
      Tirado

      BORDERLINE (3) – I will protect if I’m the GM except for Pullin

      Valentin
      Anderson
      Pullin

      POTENTIAL Casualty(ies)

      Anderson and Dominguez – by a team who scouted the A+/A minors heavily
      Valentin – solid INF back up
      Perkins – back up OF/1B and if a team believes in his hit tool

  27. Regarding the 2017 look of the major league roster, I see potentially half the starting 8 positions changed come spring training –
    1●Catcher – Rupp
    1●One of the middle infielders (Galvis or more likely Cesar H gone)
    2●OF (…and if Odubel stays here, he’ll slide to LF, plus another corner outfielder will likely be acquired)
    *?●?1b (possibly though not as likely pending a trade that would move TJ and/or bring his replacement)

    1. 8mark……hate to break the news, but if Pete Mack is still the coach…maybe one change but affecting two positions….LF or CF involving Herrera and Quinn, or a veteran big bat signee that could go to LF and let OH stay in CF..

  28. My hot stove crystal ball JUST FOR FUN (which means just humor me). You play along and fill in the blanks (based on current speculation)

    1 Cameron Rupp, Jake Thompson, and a lower level prospect TO DETROIT TIGERS FOR______________________

    2 Odubel Herrera TO TEXAS RANGERS FOR_________________

    3 Cesar Hernandez TO LOS ANGELES DODGERS FOR__________________

    4 Vince Velasquez TO NEW YORK YANKEES FOR_________________

    1. 8mark….what I would shoot for.
      1. Nick Castellanos and Beau Burrows.
      2. Jairo Beras and Brett Martin
      3. Walker ‘Ferris’ Beuhler
      4. Gleyber Torres and James Kaprielian

    2. 8mark
      1. I wouldn’t do a deal with Detroit for prospects. They have one guy I’d be interested in (Matt Manning), and they’re not going to trade him.
      2. I want to Odubel included in a deal to Seattle for James Paxton.
      3. Agree with Romus on Walker Buehler.
      4. Don’t want to trade VV, but if the Yankees offered Gleyber Torres, James Kaprelian, Nolan Martinez, and Wilkerman Garcia I might have to pull the trigger on that deal.

      1. Hinkie, to Yankees trade for VV, I would insist on Blake Rutherford, the bat they drafted this year but I am not sure when he is eligible to be traded ?

        1. 2016 draft picks can be traded right now (World Series ended). Phillies definitely like Rutherford. They considered him at 1-1, and were hoping to have him slide to them at #42. Who would you want with Rutherford ?

          1. Either Chance Adams or Domingo Acevedo. Like Justus Sheffield too but he is a little small and therefore will most likely end up as a reliever. Third prospect in their 15 to 25 range.

            1. I actually think Sheffield has a better chance of being a MLB starter than Acevedo or Adams. For me, Rutherford, Adams, and Acevedo wouldn’t be nearly enough for VV. Like I said earlier, someone would have to really blow me away to deal him.

    3. Hinkie, I agree. Wouldn’t do a deal with Detroit or Texas for prospects. Systems aren’t strong enough to draw from. NYY and LAD? YES!

        1. VV does too plus Tanaka way more experienced. Plus Kaprelain only 23 had 18 ings then went on DL with a elbow strain no way I’m touching that.

      1. Tim … last week you said James Paxton was too and at three years of team control he would be a “rental”. This week, you are trumpeting Masahiro Tanaka. Not only is Tanaka the same age as Paxton, but Tanaka can opt out of his contract after next season.

        1. Tanaka is the Yanks ace as pitched yrs in Japan and NY and is very durable and sucessful .Tanaka ,Paxton is like night and day. Paxton hasn’t ever been in the major for a yr healthy and hasn’t done anything near Tanaka. That’s yes that’s why you get Tanaka either trade him or resign him.

          1. Tim…..but Paxton has something Tanaka doesn’t have.
            He throw left.
            Muy importante ….in crunch September stretch time in three-game series vs divisional opponents and also playoff time were your rotation is compressed to basically a three-man rotation.
            Capeeesh?

          2. @Tim – I’ll just wait for Otani and sign him rather than trade for Tanaka. If the Phils are really interested in Tanaka, they could have signed him when he was in the open market. Unlike Jose Abreu who the Phils underestimated (since they still have the RAJ wrecking crew), Tanaka is performing within expectation. Plus the NYY always like to contend and spend so with a deep farm, NYY will most likely will deal prospects that proven MLB players.

    4. @8mark – taking a page from long lenghty post above. This is not the best case scenario, but I think this is realistically possible.

      1. Rupp, Jake = JD Martinez, Funkhouser and Anibal’s salary dump
      2. Dobbie = Profar + Matuella. Any of Mendez, Ibanez and Taveras is better but TEX will just hang up the phone immediately.
      3. Cesar = Kendrick + Heredia + Diaz
      4. Vinny – Torres, Kaprielian, Achance Adams and Dillon Tate

  29. Another reason to wait until next off-season to begin throwing big money at FA’s. Keith Law (in today’s chat) believes Shohei Otani may become available this time next year. Otani next year, Manny Machado the following year … I’m all about that plan. Use your money for star FA’s to supplement your young core.

    Mike: What are the chances Otani is posted and comes over? What is his long-term outlook?
    Klaw: I’m betting it’s after next year. Number one starter. Not a position player here.

    Also from today …

    Patrick: if you are Matt Klentak, do you look at deals for Velasquez since the FA class is weak? If so, what could a young controllable starter like him net?
    Klaw: I guess you always listen, especially since he’s a bit fragile, but I would not feel any rush to trade the guy given the absence of anything like him in the system at the moment.

    1. BTW … Otani is only 22 YO. Machado is 24. They would fall in the same age group as the rest of the young Phillies’ prospects. It’s fun to dream on.

    2. HInkie – I was reading about Otani just last night. Seems like an exceptional talent, both as a pitcher and a hitter. At some point the Phillies need to bring in some front-liners. I suspect Klentak has an Otani file on his desk

    1. I am curious to see what happens in the next four weeks.
      If Matt Klentak is aggressive and makes a few deals of substance (moving any of the Phillies top 15 prospects or 2016 MLB players), or he just rides things out.
      Maybe protect 39 and select someone in the Rule5, or just protect 40 and pass this year.
      May give an indication of his future tendencies in roster make-up.

  30. Just read the Baseball Prospectus review of the Phils top 10 prospects. I was absolutely amazed at the luke warm /poor review that Mickey Moniak received even though he is ranked no. 4. Very surprised with the writer’s opinion of him being a mediocre CF fielder and possibly being only a corner outfielder who will only hit – with no power. If I have read 15 articles about Moniak by 15 different reviewers — to a person they state he will possibly be a gold glove CF and could play in the big time right now as a fielder “only.” ???? Did he see the real MM ? I believe Jim has seen him also – any comments ?

    Rest of article was thorough but not terribly impressed with any prospect other than Crawford, VV, and Nola (the last two were in the section, “players 25 and younger.” All others seemed to have “warts” according to the writer(s). The saving grace was that the Phils had alot of players in the age 25 and under group which is very unusual because more than half of them were already in the majors. Good article for Hinkie to review…….

    1. Maybe Jeffrey Paternostro has a bias. He has done quite a bit of work with Mets prospects in the past….but maybe I was just looking for something to try to dig him on.

  31. There are 8 players (IMO) currently on the 40man roster which when no longer on it come 11/18,

    Araujo, Asche, Buchanan, L.Garcia, SevGon, Klein, Mariot, and Ruf (not a big Goeddel guy either but I’m leaving him on)….

    leave the count at 24 which means 16 slots need to be filled. Assuming no trades or FA signings until then, that’s a lot of room to protect our valued prospects. Even if 1 or 2 FAs do sign, we’re still in good shape. No worries here.

    1. @8mark – the Phils can’t protect up 16 prospects even if you shed the team with all the stiff. i assume that the prospects that will be protected will ALL start in the minors.

      The Phils need to complete a 25-man to start the season. Then players already in the 40-man like Alfaro, Quinn, Goeddel, Cordero and SP that will not make the Phils rotation – like Morgan, Asher, Jake will also start in the minors. That’s already 32 (25+7), and the Phils need couple of MLB ready bullpen arms since none of these prospects that will be protected are MLB ready bullpen arms except probably for Appel and Pivetta. And I think the Phils need (must have) to protect 9 players – NIck, Cozens, Appel, Lively, Pinto, Garcia, Knapp, Tirado and Pivetta.

      If I do the math – (25) Phillies team + (9) Rule V protection + (7) 40-man who’ll start in the minors + (2) extra bullpen arms and (1) Matt Harrison spot === that’s sums to 44 players in a 40-man.

      That’s why I think Quinn will start with the Phils not in the minors, Valentin will be protect to play as an INF bench, SevGon and Araujo might survive the purge because of their optionality and position (long man and KHP) and Jeanmar can be a non-tender candidate and some of the prospects like Knapp and Lively will be traded.

      1. KK – I agree with your nine, though I could contend that both Tirado and Knapp are no better than a 50% risk, and probably much lower. Still, given the rebuilding state of the franchise, I doubt the brass leaves either unprotected.

        Regarding the roster count, agree with the math, but would say that neither the 40 nor the 25 man are static. The short term goal is to establish a 40-man in advance of November 18th. As 8-mark points out above, there is still a good deal of untapped roster flexibility remaining. I suspect all nine of the players you are concerned with will indeed be protected, and given the dearth of MLB talent on the current roster, finding room for all nine will not be difficult.

        Whether or not I think there is plenty of roster flexibility here, they can certainly still make a trade or two in the next week. It would be more about opportunity though, rather than creating roster space for what is generally an overall weak roster

        1. @steve – i’m give 90% probability that Knapp will be selected if not protected. He doesn’t need to start but he can be a very good bat coming from the bench A switch hitting C (who is projected to hit for average with power) is very appealing to any team.

          I have a lower probability for Tirado – it’s probably around 60%. Tirado can be a Guduan of last year. A non-contending team with weak farm will take a flyer on live arm like Tirado and hide him in the pen.

      2. KuKo..the number crunch you project is exactly why if I were Matt Klentak I would move some prospects now for lower level prospects from other orgs or maybe a package deal of some sort, two come directly in mind Ben Lively and Andrew Knapp….and you may have to sell low, only because the return prospects are at lower levels far from MLB ready.

        1. @romus – i still doubt the McKlentak combo’s creativity in trades. Both are known to be conservatives so they are slow in the trigger.

          in my earlier posts, i bring up trading Goeddel for lower LA prospects to create a needed roster space and I have high trust in the Phils international scouts. Then a Cesar trade to LAD for a salary dump and Heredia and Diaz. I also think that the Phils package Altherr, Rupp and sell high on Neris to create further space since the Phils have depth to cover positions that will be left behind by these trades.

          Another move that I will do if I’m the GM is to start Quinn with Doobie and Altherr (if both are not traded) and consider Knapp as the backup C/1B/LF and situational pinch hitter (so Alfaro get all the at bats in AAA), protect Valentin and make him as back up INF, put Cordero and Appel in the Phil’s pen.

          Quinn, Knapp, Valentin, Cordero and Appel all have options left and that can vie McKlentak some time to work on trades (to create space and improve the farm) while the Phils continue their progression.

          1. KuKo…well, you certainly are aggressive in that regard.
            Moving Goeddell will definitely get lower level prospects.
            Not sure about Cesar right now, though Valentin could be MLB ready by June/July…but me thinks he will be playing on another team after Dec 8th.
            Rupp’s value is high…..but who catches outside signing a veteran…Knapp is not ready def wise nor Alfaro.
            As for Cordero, IMO he is will not be reliable in 2017 or who knows how long after. His shoulder issues are chronic it appears, perhaps the Blue Jays knew that also, I would not count on him for any long term relief assignments. When you are 25-years old and still having shoulder issues, as the All-State guy says….not good
            But also agree….NacKlentak do not seem to be the creative type……Braves’ Coppollela, Daniels, Epstein, Preller (when he is not trying to cheat) all seem to be aggressive.

            1. @romus – i don’t see Cesar, Rupp and Goeddel play a major role in the next Phillies run so for me, utilize the current very good scouting team and get talent by trading them – Phillies doesn’t want to be like the Sixers where that have a ton of overlapping big men but wait too long to get a value. Sixers, now without Hinkie, will end up trading their excess assets for less of what they worth.

              Agree that Valentin can be lost, that’s why I will be aggressive to protect him and set him as the back up INF. Knapp, Appel and Cordero are already up in age (around 25) – they’re grown up men with enough experience, should be able to handle the aggressive assignments. If McKlentak are concerned about their health – then trade them. With their age, salary, option and skill/stuff it should be a good return.

              I will also consider (if there’s roster space) a promotion to both Stassi and Perkins. If they did not show up or perform, DFA them (and no team with claim them if they perform poorly). LHP Holby Milner and RHP Miguel Nunez are the bullpen arms that I will also look at. The Phils can’t do what they did with Ruf to evaluate the older prospects. Put them in the position to perform, and if they don’t do well, purge them so it will not create roadblocks in the pipeline.

    1. @sam – bad idea. Phils can make package of Jake plus a couple of B-level prospects but not VV. VV can fetch a hefty return by himself since the SP market is thin.

      Cutch will be on the downside the time the Phils contend. This trade has no upside.

      1. Gentlemen,

        Since Klentak said he wants the 2017 Phillies to be better than the 2016 Phillies, then acquiring McCutchen would make sense, though maybe not at the cost of VV.

        In that same spirit, I don’t think he can trade Rupp. The 2017 team is weaker without him, unless they trade for a good veteran as a replacement, which doesn’t seem to make sense to me if we assume Alfaro is close. That combination of trades would be like moving people for the sake of being active.

        1. @SWFL – yes, McKlentak can trade Rupp since they can always sign a decent FA C (and overpay if they need to) and I’m not sure why the Phils is weaker if Rupp is no longer around. The overall progression of the primary players like Franco, Doobie, Nola, VV, Eickhoff, Jake, Eflin, Ramos, Quinn and so on will determine if the 2017 will be a better team or not — and not a single secondary player in Rupp.

          Wieters, Jason Castro, Avila, Navarro, Saltalamacchia, Rosario can be had if the Phils need a starting C. Alfaro (and Knapp will be) is already in the 40-man, it will not take a long time for Alfaro to hit his way up with the Phils.

  32. If JH refuses the QO and signs with another team outside the protect-10…Phillies could be looking at some where in the 24-or higher selection.
    And slot money in 2016 for 24 thru 28 picks:
    24. Pads… $2,191,200
    25. Pad…..$2,159,900
    26. WhSox$2,128,500
    27. Os…….$2,097,200
    28. Nat…… $2,065,900
    …and 8th was $3.6M.
    Phillies could have a total of close to $6M (inflation factored) in 2017’s Rule 4 for their first two picks..

    1. Romus – here’s a link to the 10 MLB free-agents who were made qualifying offers. When Hellickson declines, the Phils are assured a pick in the top 30, and perhaps as low as 24 as you pointed out.

      If I recall correctly, there were no unsigned 1st rounders from this year’s draft, so no compensation there. But here’s where we could end up picking towards the back end of the Top 20. Teams with protected 1st round picks in 2017 include the Angels, D’backs and the Phillies themselves. With 32 teams in the league, and given the number of FAs with QO, and number of teams with protected 1st rounds who are likely to be played in free agency, I would guess the Phils comp pick is 25-27. Still, even at 27, that’s a pretty good pick that Klentak turned around for Sam McWilliams.

      Here’s the list of FAs with a QO:

      Mark Trumbo, Orioles
      Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies
      Yoenis Cespedes, Mets
      Neil Walker, Mets
      Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays
      Jose Bautista, Blue Jays
      Ian Desmond, Rangers
      Dexter Fowler, Cubs
      Kenley Jansen, Dodgers
      Justin Turner, Dodgers

      http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/list-of-players-set-to-receive-qualifying-offers.html. Most will decline, though I’m not certain about Walker.

  33. so the Braves sign 42 year old RA Dickey and 44 to be Bartolo Colon. I think Jamie Moyer is back out throwing in his back yard, waiting for a call.

    1. i assume that both were signed as innings eater and potential trade chip come july. i will sick again to listen so some of my colleagues that are ATL fans and say that a team needs to give up a similar to what TOR gave to get Dickey. Actually, they are already saying that teams need to give up better package than what ARI gave up for Shelby if they want Teheran and Archer is nothing worth than 3 of their Top 20-30 org prospects. crazy people, i want to give them a tomahawk chop myself.

  34. All,

    Does anyone see any significance in the World Series TV ratings being the highest in years and Game Seven being the highest in decades while NFL ratings are down more than 10 percent?

    The Series did have the Cubs, an almost semi-national team. And the NFL has had to deal with the election, which became America’s most watched reality TV series. But the NFL star also might be tarnished by the cumulative effect of guys taking a knee at the National Anthem, concussion controversy, domestic violence incidents, the rise of soccer and the proliferation of social media and the fracturing of media, generally.

    Nor are the NFL’s problems sudden. Live attendance has been flat and somewhat down for several years.

    Finally, amid all this fractionalization and instant gratification, is baseball a refuge for those seeking some peace and pace? Or am I just being wishful and baseball really is a dinosaur?

    1. Frank, everything is cyclical. Strong markets where fans simply love their local team will always thrive. Gambling/fantasy participation will continue to make the NFL profitable nationally. I honestly don’t think Americans are generally THAT noble and principled that the game will suffer indefinitely. We’re a corporate culture as much if not more than a morally conscious one. Personally I love baseball for the game itself. It’s unfortunate when those in professional sports don’t honor it for what it is, namely mercenary players and execs.

      1. 8mark,

        Thanks for the thoughtful response.

        Your line about mercenary players and execs reminds me of the Seinfeld routine where he asked why people cheer for players. One day, you cheer for a guy on your team. The next day he gets traded, comes in with a different uniform, and you root against him. It’s really the uniform you’re rooting for, Seinfeld said in a way much funnier than this retelling.

    2. I think less about baseball and more about a disappointing NFL. Constant injuries to stars ; same strong teams / weak teams for years and years; Patriots always win / or are among finalists (Yankees of the new order) ; players who are “less” than model people with guns, drugs, wife beaters, etc. ; an offensive game that is a million short passes or some form of defensive infraction ; and lastly, poor scheduling with half the teams being a group of no-names or perennial doormats. Who really plays for Cleveland ? Tennessee ? Tampa ? and who cares ? other than the local fans. Gone are those glory days of Purple People Eaters, Daryll Lamonicas, Butkus, Steel Curtain, the wonderful running backs of Brown, Sweetness, Riggins, Sayers, and myriad others. The product is now a sham.

  35. Rumors is kicking around that the Blue Jays will likely sign Lourdes Gurriel for $22M/7 yrs. This is nothing for the Phils. Wake up McKlentak!

    1. That’s saddening to say the least.
      There is no penalty also for signing the 23-year old Cuban…..who could see the field at Rogers Center by July or August.
      What is also a bit depressing……the Comcast contract will have paid to the Philies by next season……approx. $125M (two installments of that $2.5B contract).
      Like I said earlier…in the next four weeks we will see what Klentak has going on and more in determining his philosophy.

      1. I’m actually ok when the Phils did not sign Yasmani Tomas (which is contrary to what the MLB execs expects the Phils to do), but this one stings a little considering how much it cost to sign him. I will just assume that Gurriel got worried about the result of the recent election so he decided to sign with a Canadian team instead.

        1. Tomas for all his defensive liabilities did hit 31 HRs slashing 272/.313/.820
          An AL team would take him as a DH I would think…so he becomes a value youthful trade chip for the D-Backs.
          Apparently, the Phillies will just not be apart of any aggressive monetary splurge for foreign talent from this point onward…be it Latin or Asian.
          Something that fans have to accept.
          Amaro’s last hurrah was for Jhailyn Ortiz and it may be the last for seven figure bonuses from the team.
          Signing all Ven players is an indication they do not want to go over the $1M mark again…and counting on a draft to go along with that philosophy.

          1. Romus – I am not sure one can predict that multi millions won’t be spent again. I would suggest history has shown that other than Cespedes, one year of Chisox Abreu, possibly Moncado ?, reliever Chapman, and the 2016 Cardinals kid shortstop who had been released last winter, the Cuban market has been atrociously expensive and has hardly been the mother lode advertised. Ask the Dodgers, who have spent a virtual GDP and accumulated nothing but org filler players at this point. It seems to me that alot of the really good Cuban players came to the USA about 10 – 15 + years ago – like the El Duque group ? Tomas is a one dimensional player and the Phillies assessed him correctly when they passed.

            1. RU..agree with that over-hype and subsequently let down on a majority of the Cuban phenoms…even MAG and Rusney Castillo can be included in that group, but it should not preclude a team from trying to find that one player who can be more than a replacement player.
              But my prediction that J.Ortiz may be the last at that $4M plus price, is largely based on the fact that the new CBA may have an international draft included in it.
              Now if they slot the inter draft at the same slot money as the Rule 4, which I am sure they will be forced to do to appease all parties, then of course that runs the exclusion, since teams will either go under slot or meet slot.
              That is the only way I see the Phillies ever again spending high dollars for amateur talent going forward.

        1. 8mark…never thought about it in that way. Perhaps he is over-rated. I guess we will know in about a year from now. At 23-years old, he will not have a lot of time to establish his preeminence as a baseball player. Puig came in at 19-years old.

        2. @8mark – it is definitely a gamble. Chapman, Puig and Jose Abrue are gambles that succeed and Castillo, Tomas and our beloved MAG, don’t. Nobody holds a crystal ball so nobody will know until after the fact. If teams accepts salary dump (equals to $$ spent too) to received a prospect in return, spending $$ for a projectable prospect is the same thing.

          To me, if you have $$ and spend it to add talent with future projection – it is never a bad thing.

        3. so far, flexing its financial muscle in the international front is something that the Middleton team has not done. I believe in Sal A. ability to find talent in the international front, why not increase the resource to increase the chances to hit the jackpot (assuming that $$ is not really an issue as Middleton said)??. Teams who are aggressive in the international market like BOS, TEX, CHI Cubs, NYY even HOU, TB and STL proved that investing in international front can yield to successful returns.

          1. KuKo….I think the interb=national draft is affecting how the Philluies are proceeding. The draft can only help their cause, along with the other less than high roller teams.
            The draft will probably limit or put loose-fitting handcuffs on teams like the Yankees, Rangers, Sox, Cubs, LAD, LAA, Atlanta and believe it or not the Cardinals and Reds.

        4. I’ve read more than one negative report on Lourdes Gurriel. I’ve never seen him so I have no opinion, but I have read others who were down on him.

    1. Does it mean that Cesar is on his way out?? I like the trade since I consider Ruf as non tender candidate. I project Sweeney to play CF in LHV and Quinn to start with the Phils. Kendrick might be asked to start in the LF and Quinn will probably start as CF in LHV.

      1. I suspect so about Cesar, but Kendrick demonstrated some defensive diversity last season. Kendrick played 94 games in LF last season, 32 at 2B, 17 at 3B and 11 at 1B. He’ll make for a good bounce back candidate as he moves from a pitcher’s park to the bank. They’l probably be in position to move him at the deadline for something more valuable than Ruf and Sweeney.

        Considering what we gave up, I like it

    2. And they get a good veteran presence with solid OBP history, multi position player, and save another roster space. Win win in all regards.

    3. That’s a great trade. Klentak hasn’t made a lot of moves, but the ones he has made have generally all been solid.

  36. I like to think they don’t have the stomach to tank for a 3rd year in a row and truly are in the market for a real corner OF that can OPS at least 750 preferably 1 for each corner.

    Saunders would seem to fit that bill and doesn’t cost any compensation plus his lefty bat is sorely needed.

    If you signed Saunders and somehow got JD Martinez you could have a pretty exciting team next season without any blockages to up and coming prospects.

    Can you get Martinez by taking on Sanchez’s money and giving up Neris and Galvis. When they trade Kinsler to free up that money Galvis gives them an option there and they always need BP pieces.

  37. Kendrick acquisition also provides multitude of moves. Galvis at SS until Crawford ready and Howie plays LF, or 2B if Phils trade Hernandez shortly or during spring training. Howie does well and is traded in July, Galvis to 2B, Crawford to SS. Howie does just ok and the Phils let him play out the season, substitute Valentin, Blanco, others until Kingery is ready – most likely in 2018. The middle is crowded right now but Kendrick did get LF experience so he is more flexible than other options.

  38. Ok Ultey was traded for Sweeney and a pitcher. Now Sweeney gets traded for Howie Kendricks who could be blocked if the Dodgers sign Ultey . So Ultey keeps giving to the phillies.

  39. I don’t want JD Martinez for one year, a year when we are not winning anything, at the expense of any asset. If they can get JD by taking all of Sanchez’ salary, great I’m for it but I don’t see that happening. The Tigers want something for JD but I don’t want to give up anything for a one year rental. And no he won’t sign an extension because he sees free agent dollars only a year away.

    1. I would be fine with Saunders or Rasmus for a year though, assuming they trade Cesar, hopefully for a prospect who doesn’t need to be protected yet.

  40. What would the halos give us for hernandez? What if we took on a monster contract like weaver … who could improve in the nl and be flipped if he regains form … to get a higher end pitching prospect who doesn’t need to be protected on the 40 man? Could we get back their first round pick perhaps?

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