Open Discussion: Week of September 5th

Here’s the open discussion thread for Phillies’ talk and other topics.

The Phillies went 0-6 against a couple of division foes last week.  They were swept at home by the first place Nationals and the last place Braves.    Their record stands at 60-76 (18-28 since the All Star break).

Things get better when they go on the road to play 3 games in Miami and 4 games in Washington.  Seriously, the Marlins are fading in the wild card race and the Nationals are due to lose another game to the Phillies this season.

The Phillies lost a lot of ground on the Cardinals for the second wild card.  They have dropped back into a tie with the Brewers.  They now trail by 11.5 games .  Their elimination number is 16 games.

The Phillies’ recent woes (they were outscored at home, 11-25, while losing all six games) have lowered their winning percentage to .441 and dropped them to the eighth worst in the league (Phillies “win” all ties).

The Phillies are fewer games behind the Braves (6.5 GB) for the top pick in the draft than they are the Cardinals (11.5 GB) for the wild card.   Teams like Arizona, Cincinnati, Tampa, and Oakland are all within reach (no more than 2 games back in the loss column).  Anaheim and Milwaukee still have to be fought off, they play in equally difficult divisions.

A recent decision that may factor into fans’ wishes for a high draft pick and bonus allotment is the rate at which Phillies’ pitchers are dropping.  Vince Velasquez has been shut down for the season.  Only two starters from the team’s opening day roster are still healthy – Jeremy Hellickson and Jerad Eickhoff.

 

 

144 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of September 5th

  1. I think we are all a little disappointed in our team this year. Certainly we wanted our staff to be healthier and pitch better. But you have to factor in that we were picked to be dead-last in baseball again this year, and have an even worse record than in 2015. There are plenty of silver linings going forward, and 2017 could be the year we really start seeing the fruits of the rebuild. And who knows, maybe we land another top-5 pick at this rate.

    1. Not disappointed in the team at all this season. If anything, they’ve actually outperformed expectations coming into the season. If you had told me they wouldn’t be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs by Labor Day I would have taken that bet.

      I think they have found two solid rotation pieces in Velasquez and Eickhoff and they have gotten the chance to evaluate a number of position players. The only disappointment I see is that I don’t see a lot of long-term future for the position players they got to see.

  2. Bad news for the Dylan Cozen’s fan club.

    I spent some time this morning looking at the top platoon hitters in MLB to try to find a comp. While I found hitters with similar overall traditional stats, I could not find any with a similar K rate. Actually all of the top platoon hitters had below 20% k rate in the minor. And none of them had horrible splits in the minors. Nothing as dramatic as Dylan’s.

    Cozens kinda profiles to the current day Ryan Howard. Which I wouldn’t exactly say is a valuable player, even excluding his contract.

    That feels like his ceiling to me.

    1. I’m curious how the Phils rotation shakes out for 2017. Klentak has openly discussed extending a qualifying offer to Hellickson. There is a team option on re-signing Charlie Morton. Most would assume that Nola, Velasquez and Eickhoff are penciled in. Thompson has shown drastic improvement and is part of the discussion. Eflin has shown flashes and should benefit from working off of repaired knees. He to me is a complete X-factor as is Mark Appel. Ben Lively, next to Rick Porcello, is the winningest pitcher in baseball for the year-to-date. Nick Pivetta has had success at AAA and is soon to be part of the discussion. Alec Asher will have a chance to show if his work prior to his suspension translates at the major league level. Phil Klein was International League player of the month and I think will reappear on the big stage this month. Adam Morgan, the lefty in the bunch, has probably shown enough to deserve retention. Alberto Tirado has shown enough that he would likely be selected in the Rule 5 draft if not protected. Ricardo Pinto is probably just an afterthought at this point.

      When has the starting depth ever looked like this?

      1. I have not seen depth like this in a long, long time. VV and Eickhoff are locks. Thompson and Eflin have nothing left to prove at AAA so they will get every opportunity to secure a starting job. Eflin should be fully recovered from his knee surgeries once ST rolls around. Nola’s elbow is the wildcard. There’s a decent chance he might undergo TJ if it doesn’t respond to treatment. Lively, Morgan, Buchanan should be in the mix if Nola is out. I wouldn’t sleep on Klein either. Asher (suspension), Pivetta (not that many starts), Appel (injury) will likely start the year at AAA.

    2. maybe this is the time to work him into a trade to a budget conscious team that would find cheap, young power attractive, while he’s got the 275-39-123- 21sb stat line at the top of his resume?

    3. Hey v1,
      I understand with cozens, yeah his k rate is pretty bad and does not bide well for his success. But he is still young, and has only been focused on baseball a few years. I think he still has a lot of room to grow. But I agree with you that no, he’s not major league ready yet.

      1. What do you mean he’s only been focused on baseball a few years? Are you referring to his one year playing high school football?

        1. He actually played only from August to that 2nd Saturday in November….maybe four months….and on Monday after the championship game, was asking the baseball coach to open up the batting cage.
          Not sure where all the football stuff started that took up all his HS sports time..

        2. Okay, you’re right.

          But why the snarkiness? It’s not like people have been broadcasting this fact. Was it posted only a couple times since he was drafted (2012)?

          It’s easy to see Cozens committed to playing football in college, and assume he’s been playing 3-4 years. So cut us a break, please.

      1. None of them. They all had power, but none hit 40 homers. There is NO disputing that Cozens has a great power tool.

        But I can’t find an MLB player that comps to him that looks like a really good player.

        in 2015 there were 6 players who hit more than 25 homers and had a K% greater than 25%: Chris Davis, Nelson Cruz, JD Martinez, Kris Bryant, Justin Upton and Joc Pederson.

        NONE of those players have a significant R/L split difference where they have to be platooned and none of them had a K rate over 25% in the minors…let alone over 30%.

        Cozens kinda looks like Chris Davis. Except that Davis had a 22% k rate in AA and AAA. And Davis has never had a huge split difference. The other guys are not even close to Cozens.

        1. He probably comps close to a Domingo Santana with the Krate and raw power tool….and we know how that is working.
          He will most likely need a full year at LHV in 2017 if he will show improvement.

          1. Yeah, exactly. You just can’t find very many MLB players with a K rate over 30%. And if AA pitchers are striking out Cozens at 32% rate, imagine what MLB pitchers would do to him?

    4. V, I don’t know why you seem to hit the hornets nest on purpose but you do. I suggest you look at Brandon Moss’s career stats as his K rates are above 20%. Dylan Cozens has been playing baseball full time only for four to five years and he continues improving but only time will tell. Even if Cozens is not a everyday player there is great value in a LH hitter who hits RH pitching well even with strikeouts included. Lets see how he does in Allentown before you bury him.

      1. I didn’t burry him. I just stated a fact. It is hard to find a comp for a player with his dramatic of a split and his extreme K rate.

        I had already looked at Moss’s career…did you?

        Moss had a 21% K rate in AA. Cozens has a 32% rate after today. Oh and Moss is not exactly a great player. 6 of his 10 seasons he had a WAR less than 1. And his best WAR ever was 2.6, then 2.3. So if you are saying that Moss is Cozens’ best case scenario, then I probably wouldn’t disagree. Just not sure why that is exciting.

        And to your question of hitting the hornets nest, yes, I like to do that. I find it more interesting than going along with group think.

        1. The best case scenarios for Cozens are Chris Davis, Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard (the ’07-’11 version). All of those guys had K% of 28% or higher, ISOs greater than .200, and BB% of 10-15%. I don’t believe that’s what he’ll become, but all three of those guys were able to be very productive offensively despite high K rates.

          There’s a second tier of that type of hitter – Jack Cust, Chris Carter, Russell Branyan, and Mark Reynolds – that I wouldn’t be surprised if Cozens reached. If Cozens is able to play a decent RF and is an average baserunner, he’d be a pretty valuable player with their offense – probably a 3-5 win player.

          Can he keep his athleticism past the age of 28? Probably not, so I think you could see a scenario where he’s a productive player for 3-5 years and then becomes a 2nd division starter as a 1B/DH.

            1. Ok, if you want to say Branyan is his comp, then I can buy that, but Branyan was NOT a good major league player. He also had the benefit of being a 3rd basemen defensively. And his K rate in AA was under 25%.

            2. Funny, I remembered Branyan having a really brief cup of coffee with the Phils. I looked up on baseball-reference, and in 2007 he had 9 PAs with the Phils. That included 2 HRs and 6 Ks. What a statline!

          1. It is worth noting that the three optimal scenario players were all first basemen, not corner outfielders. Also worth nothing that those players were not platoon hitters with horrible splits.

            I also thought about Adam Dunn. Seems like an interesting comp. But Dunn’s AA and AAA stats far surpass Cozens.

            Dunn has a 19% K rate as a 21 year old split across AA and AAA. He was in the majors as a 21 year old. Dunn’s AA/AAA line was: .334/.444/.671

            Again, it is just so hard to find a great MLB player who struck out over 30% in AA and also had a horrible LHP split. Add in the Outfield position criteria and I can’t find one.

        2. Yes I did look at Moss’s stats and that is why I brought to your attention that you are skewing the facts to support your arguments. You just seem to like bringing attention to yourself but I won’t respond to your baiting posts anymore. I hope that he proves you and the others who agree with you really wrong in the long run.

          1. Well, Moss’s stats do not dispute my point so odd that you looked at them and still made the argument. Again, all I am saying is I can’t find a good MLB player who had >30% k rate in AA and also a terrible lefty split. That is stating a fact about comps, not an opinion of a player. I am not a scout.

            To be clear, I hope Cozens proves me wrong too. I am a Phillies fan. I would love for Cozens to be a stud MLB player. I have just been burned too many times by getting my hopes up due to fools gold of minor league stats.

        3. v1,

          I like your non-group think spirit and agree that Cozens is very interesting to speculate about. Rhys Hoskins is less spectacular but maybe has a better shot. He certainly knows how to take a walk and how to make productive at-bats minus home runs. RH 1B is the only real knock against him.

      2. You mean full-time, as in a professional baseball player? Wouldn’t that make him like every other high school draftee?

        Or are you referring to his one year playing high school football?

  3. The are last in runs scored by a pretty wild margin. For 1 Ruf is not helping C Herandez has cooled off , Howard a 1 trick pony with 9 doubles 20 hrs. Most of the playoffs teams are the with the best offenses . Boston has a similar offense to KC as they don’t stikeout and are very patient. Phillies ready need to keep drafting the Offense. There plenty of pitching now in the lower levels.maybe now or next yr they can the Phillies can buy some bats the Blue Jays and Baltimore , Texas has done etc. Neither the Jays , Boston , Texas have good not great staffs they outscore everyone as a hole.

    1. seeing Herrera regress with his approach, Franco be so frustrating to watch, and Nick Williams showing even less discipline, it’s a bit depressing way to end the year. its like Ryan Howard is the organizational hitting coach or something.

      1. Franco has been too aggressive at the plate and the pitchers know it. They’ll feed him off speed low and away and he’ll spin out of his helmet. Franco needs to be more selective. The good thing is that he’ll still rip mistake pitches, which is something I’m not seeing from Altherr. I think last game, I saw Altherr get maybe 4-5 mistake pitches and fouled off all of them. Then he’ll K on something out of the zone.

  4. Doobie is a mystery to me. I know it is hard to change your approach. But, he did, and had success with it. Why the complete regression is confounding. You can see his first 250 ABs of the season, and the last 250. He has been a completely different, much worse, hitter. Franco tries too hard, and I believe in a better lineup his approach would be better. When you listen to him, he seems to have a good understanding of the game and what he needs to do. Altherr is an extra OF and Rup will be with another organization.

    1. He is completely lost at the plate. He’s not trusting his hands and it shows at the plate. He’s not pulling the ball with authority anymore. It’s either weak flyballs to LF or dribbers to the SS.

    2. Matt13, I was huge on Herrera when he broke into the bigs. But the more I watched him, and saw how he handled the success he was having, the more I started thinking that he was getting, perhaps, over-confident in his ability. From his bat flips, to his head first slides into firstbase. It just seems like he was more interested in how he looked playing the game and not how he played the game. Style points I suppose. That said I’m more interested in who is playing CF in the minors and ready to come up and take his spot. And gain I was a big fan at one time…

      1. Eric,

        I liked Odubel from the first time I saw him in spring training last year with his effusive enthusiasm. Hopefully, he will return next year with a clear head, the same earlier success, and some maturity. If not, like you, I’m watching the outfielders down on the farm.

  5. There nobody behind Franco when Tj and Rupp are out of the lineup. C Herandez is still walking but now in a slump.

  6. edk, that is exactly why I have never given up on Quinn. He, if healthy, is exactly what is needed. A legit lead off hitter, game changing speed, excellent D, and he has always hit, despite all the injuries. I will keep rooting for him.

  7. The future , if there is to be another championship , should not have Freddy, Cesar or Odubel starting up the middle…..has to be JPC, Kingery and Quinn or Moniak.

    1. Where’s the power at plus Herrera still has a good hit tool. I hate to this but none of the above has 1 mlb atbat that’s a lot of developing time there. The way the slow rebuild is going the Phillies maybe good in 2020.

        1. No its taking 5 yrs plus for Quinn now if taking 2020 he’ll be 28,29 with a long history of leg Injuries.doesnt Matter Mickey Mo should be ready by 2018 ,19 . Now if Phillies buy some bats they could be ready by 2017 ,2018. Mk and Macphail could get fired if it does take until 2020 . Not many GM , presidents make it though a 5 yr rebuild.

          1. Mickey Moniak…by 2018???? he would need to double jump next season and the following season….highly unlikely…..ETA I see as May/June 2020….same as MLB has him…maybe September 2019.

            1. Quinn isn’t going to be a part of the Phillies success. Can’t stay healthy. Absolutely not his fault. Generally people who get hurt, continue to get hurt. Hope I’m wrong.

      1. I agree that anyone who really thought the Phillies would be serious contenders in 2017 was wildly optimistic. I can’t see that 2017 will be much better than 2016 unless we get step improvements from the likes of Herrea, Franco, Hernandez, and Nola, and guys like Velasquez, Eflin and Thompson continue to come along.

        Crawford and Alfaro may be able to help at some point, but I’m guessing probably closer to 2018. Maybe by 2019 the Phillies could have a legit playoff contender if things break right (i.e., if a number of key guys develop as hoped).

  8. Nick Williams has come under some criticism lately for his August slump, but when you look at his career progression, especially concerning weighted runs created he does look a bit more favorable going forward. His past slump, before last month, was the promo to Frisco-AA in Aug’14…and that was not too devastating since he was 20-years old at the AA level.
    Below are the metrics:
    2012…PA224-age18 …..wRC+118
    2013…PA404-age19 …..wRC+148
    2014…PA486-age20 …..wRC+123—promo to AA-slumped in Aug(64PAs)
    2015…PA515-age21 …..wRC+147
    2016…PA525+age22 ….wRC+100(as of Sept5)—slumped in Aug.

    1. Look at his career strikeouts compared to walks. Hard to find any examples of competent MLB hitters who had a similar profile in the minors.

      He can hit, but his strike zone discipline needs to improve a lot.

      1. Understand…when you say ‘competent MLB hitter’ what are you talking about as far as a slash line?
        Will he be a 300/375/825 guy? Probably never.
        I suspect, if he gets the experience he needs next season in the AAA level and does what is expected……he can be a 275/340/775 MLB player. He will hit his share of HRs…15-20 range I would think and he may have decent gap power to go along with that.
        Lets put it this way….he shows me more upside at 22-years old than Aaron Altherr did at the same age.

        1. Agree about Altherr. I just don’t see Williams getting to a .340 OBP with his strike zone discipline, but I’d love to be wrong. I think it’s more likely to be .310 or .320 . . .

          1. I agree with you WestCoast. The productive MLB players who do not take a lot of walks look like Ben Revere. Low K rates and steal bases. The power hitters who are productive take a lot of walks.

            I think Nick Williams has great tools. But he still is not developed as a hitter. He will not be a 30+ Homer guy. So he needs to make sure that he doesn’t get himself out. He needs to stay in the minors next year and solely work on his approach.

            1. Sano had a FAR better walk rate in the minors than Cozens. And even with a very good walk rate, Sano is having a 1 WAR season, so I wouldn’t say he has reached the status of a “great MLB player”.

              I have been the low man on Sano for several years. I have alway thought that he was over hyped due to his high minor league K rate. Now, he is striking out 35% of the time in the majors. I just don’t think that is sustainable.

              It is worth watching how Sano develops and what that could mean for Cozens. A good name to throw out.

          2. Miguel Sano?

            If Nick Williams had a BB rate of 13% in AA — and not 3.6% — I’d feel a lot better about him.

  9. Here’s a comparison of two players. Both played in the same league this year. Both are the same age (birth date two months apart). Both are listed at 160 lbs. Both play a premium defensive position, and do it well enough to project as being able to play that position at the MLB level. One is a Phillies prospect, the other is not.

    Player A: .291/.335/.386; ISO of .095; 19 SB/13 CS; 4.7% BB rate/17.6% K rate
    Player B: .284/.331/.362; ISO of .068; 13 SB/6 CS; 6.1% BB rate/13.7% K rate

    I think everyone will guess the Phillies prospect, which is Player B — everyone’s favorite punching bag, Carlos Tocci.

    Player A has been a consensus Top 100 prospect in baseball each of the past two years, and was the no. 5 overall pick in the draft in 2014 — Nick Gordon.

    For the record, Gordon is no doubt a better prospect by a fair amount, based on having more power and better speed, and shortstop is more valuable than centerfield. Tocci’s better control of the strike zone doesn’t make up for that. OTOH, I think Tocci will be the starting CF in Reading next year as a 21 year old, and then we’ll see what we have.

    1. I don’t understand that debate approach of finding someone who is also hitting poorly and saying “see!”.

      If you are arguing that Gordon is over rated based on draft position then I understand your point and agree.

      1. My point was, the standard for a 20 year old in the FSL who also plays a premium defensive position is not that high. Like I said, I think Tocci will be the CF in Reading next year, and then we’ll see what’s what.

          1. Tocci will not be protected and he also will not be selected. His bat is 4 development years away from being productive in the majors. If it ever gets there.

    2. You want prospects to improve each year well I’ve pointed out in other posts that Tocci has improved on just about every offensive metric yet he still gets blasted.

  10. A few general observations:
    1. C. Rupp hasn’t been hitting since Chooch was traded. I wonder if he’s taken the foot off the motivation gas.
    2. Franco has absolutely no plate discipline and is way streaky. Is he coachable over the long term? Could it be even worse in a playoff run?
    3. Galvis is playing gold glove SS and is on track for 19 HR 66 RBI, yet his OPS is still lower than C. Hernandez. What if his batting average and OBP were 20 points higher? Would you consider keeping him at SS?
    4. T. Joseph isn’t getting consistent playing time and it shows in his hitting. Has the staff already made their assessment of him? Seems like a Ruf situation to me.

    I suspect everyone will have a chance to restart in spring training and in the 2017 season. The question is whether there is enough of a data set to know what we have and make the right trades in the offseason.

    1. #1. This one is just silly. Rump was hitting well and now is likely regressing toward his mean capability. And the Phillies still have a second catcher on the team, right?

      #2. Franco’s lapses and inconsistent approach at the plate at the frustrating. When he exercises some plate discipline, he is a good hitter. When he doesn’t, he gets himself out on some terrible pitches. He must improve in this area.

      #3. Dunno.

      #4. I really don’t understand why Ryan Howard is playing 1B instead of Joseph. It’s September and the Phillies have 35 meaningless games left in 2016. We know Ryan Howard won’t be around in 2017, so why not play Joseph on a regular basis?

  11. Anyone worried about C Randolph’s lack of power? He has a .084 ISO this year, and he profiles at LF or possibly at 1B . . . and at 5’11” 205 lbs he is unlikely to get any bigger . . .

    1. A little bit. However, most expect Randolph to develop more power as he matures and grows stronger (he’s like what, 19 years old?). And I’ll cut him some slack this season due to his injury, plus he seems to be a slow starter after a layoff. But, yeah, he doesn’t appear to have the ideal power you’d like from a LF, and his defensive profile seems limited to that position. Those are the negatives. He’ll have to hit for average and get a good share of extra-base hits.

    2. Not at all. He is 19 and consistently hits like drives. He also has broad shoulders and the type of frame that can add weight. He will never be a 40 Homer guy but I could definitely see a 20+ Homer guy. Bobby Abreau is my personal comp for C.

    3. This is what Keith Law had to say about Randolph after seeing him at the Alberto Tirado vs Alec Hansen matchup last week:
      – Cornelius Randolph, the Phillies’ first-round pick in 2015, was 0-for-3 with two strikeouts and was hit on his lead foot by a Hansen fastball. Randolph has great bat speed but a very mature body that will probably push him to first base — he’s in left field now but doesn’t even look comfortable there — and I’m a little concerned that there’s not going to be enough power here even if he does improve his defense in left. His swing mechanics are fine and I don’t think catching up to velocity will ever be a problem.

      May as well throw in his report on Tirado:
      – Lakewood’s starter, right-hander Alberto Tirado, hit 100 mph on my gun in the second inning and was 95-100 overall, allowing just one hit in six innings and striking out 10, doing it largely on fastballs. Tirado, acquired from Toronto in the Ben Revere trade last summer, has a lightning-quick arm and has above-average control, with a slight cutoff to his delivery but one that keeps his body online toward the plate. His slurvy breaking ball at 82-85 was inconsistent, some average and some less, effective when he hit his release point and could locate the pitch. He seemed to try to throw a couple of changeups that came in at 93 mph, turning the ball over more at release with a slight slowdown in his arm action, but whatever it was, it wasn’t a viable third pitch. This was Tirado’s best performance of the year; he had 35 walks in 55.1 innings for Lakewood prior to that outing, and on the whole he’s had trouble getting left-handed hitters out this year. I’d let him continue to start, since he has the electric fastball and enough of a breaking ball that I would at least want him to continue throwing it 20 times a game to work on it, but his current profile is high-upside reliever.

  12. I have already been getting very anxious to see what happens with reader top 30 after Phils season. System depth is crazy and really excited to see how the prospects end up getting slotted.

    I decided to give a top 20 a shot using SABR. I used weighted averages for attributes that I feel should be valued higher or lower than what they seem to be currently. Unfortunately, some of my favorites like Cozens, Pujols, Tirado, and Randolph did not make it and may have barely made my top 40. I believe this is a very good indication of system depth. I have a hard time believing any other teams milb system come close to Phils depth.

    1. J.P. Crawford ss 93.1- 95.49 w/ 55 hit and power. I rated him at 50 hit and power
    2. J Alfaro c 67.42- 87.32 w/ 55 patience that should be shown with raw hit/power
    3. R Quinn cf 66.09- 80.21 w/o injury concerns
    4. A Knapp c 64.97 ready for mlb when defense is ready
    5. N Pivetta rhp 64.75 mlb ready
    6. A Gamboa ss 62.03 high rating due to plus defense at ss
    7. B Lively rhp 61.83 mlb ready 2017 after few months in AAA
    8. R Hoskins 1b 59.26 ready for mlb 2017 after few months in AAA
    9. T Eshelman rhp 58.83
    10. M Moniak cf 58.58
    11. S Kingery 2b 55.44
    12. J Valentin 2b 53.85
    13. H Milner lhp 53.75
    14. C Numata c 53.39
    15. F Kilome rhp 52.94 would’ve ranked 8-10 range if not for bad start
    16. C Irvin lhp 52.92
    17. M Nunez rhp 52.57
    18. S Sanchez rhp 52.22 would rank much higher if showed any secondary pitches
    19. D Grullon c 51.77
    20. A Pullin of 51.55
    21. J Taveras rhp 51.45 who is this guy? did not know about him until calclated values

    These ratings were calcuatled using SABR as metioned above with high value placed on position. Risk factor was also calculated for each player.

    For reference, based on milb stats, Trout would have been a 98 and Kershaw a 105.
    Jake Thompson was a 64.07. Freddy Galvis was a 71.41 based on plus plus defense as a ss. A 55 rating seems to be cutoff for an average player.

    Surprisingly, Stassi rated as a 54.60 and could prove to be a very good pinch hitter type.
    Klein rated as a 58.06 and could actually be a valuable mlb player. Maybe the Phils figured something with his mechanics?

    Some players like Gowdy ended up not making top 20 due to not enough info. I would assume he would rank right below Irvin. Looks like Phils have done a great job finding some upside guys that are at R level and relief pitchers from day 2 of 2016 draft and even Jeff Singer.

      1. I can’t copy link on my tablet, but if you search 20 to 80 scale sabr style, you should be able to find the fangraphs article I used as a starting point.

        I came up with values for hit using avg, power using iso, k rate using k/pa, bb rate using bb/pa, and a generic scale for baserunning like 40 sb is a 70 while using scouting reports also. I also used values for body type where needed. J Ortiz got a 30 for body type for instance.

        I also tried to use scouting reports for defense. On the subject of body type and defense, I would assume Trout would have been at 105 if I knew how to rate his defense and he really is made of steel. Using Trouts stats, I could not see giving him any higher than 50 for body type based on 6’2″ 235 and I gave him average cf defense. 105 seems to be max and shows once in a generation players using my rating system.

        For pitchers I used hr/9, whip, k/9, bb/9 and tried to play with lob% (which seems to be an incredibly useful stat if anyone can find how to value it). Also used body type rating for pitchers. Risk value was also given to both batters and pitchers. Risk value was SABR value x .65 at 40 for instance. Risk value scale after 40 was .7 for 45, .75 for 50, .8 for 55. .9 for 60, and 1.0 for 70.

        To explain rest of values and weighted averages would take a long time and the formatting would look horrible on here I’m sure. I can say without going too much further into detail I weighted iso and bb/pa heavily for batters. hr/9 was weighted heavily for pitchers.

    1. So your saying Mike Trout would have rated at 98 and JP Crawford rated at 93! Also, how did I figure this out my self because I want to know what players like Harper, Machado and Yoan Moncada would be rated at.

      1. Joe..I assume age was not a big enough factor since Trout was in the majors at 19 years old….so basically there were his 17and 18 year old MilB metrics and portions of his 19 and 20 age seasons.

      2. Yeah cuz Crawford is a ss!

        Did not factor age for freaks like Harper and Trout. Forgot to account for that. Great point by Romus. I paid attention to it for Phils prospects who were a year behind/ahead tho. Only reason Gamboa was a year young along with his plus defense had a high rating.

        So with age factored in, Trout = 104.25, Harper= 94.9 (avg cf), Moncada 57.26 (plays 2b at 45 defense), Machado 93.24 (average ss)

        The two I really wanted to see and still can’t believe they were on the same team when I was a kid- Griffey 103.55 and ARod 107.15

      1. No Cozens. He rated at 61.25 before risk factor, 45.93 after. Would rate as a 65.63 with just a 50 k rate even (20-23%). Irated him at 40 K rate (above 29%)

        Other players with pretty high ratings before risk factor/ pos. value: Walding 58, D Hall 57, Tobias 59, Tromp 59, Randolph 60, Martin 57, Brito 57, Ortiz 59, Stephen 60, Stobbe 60, Pujols 57

        Pitchers rated high before risk factor/ role value: Fanti 57, Gowdy 58, Arano 58, El Garcia 57, Ed Garcia 56, Leiter 59, J Rodriquez 59, Tirado 61. Tirado would rate as a 91.68 if he just had average control!

      1. Not neccessarily. I said formula seems to say 55 is an average player and I really do think Milner will have value as a middle reliever.

        Formula shows that not many Phils prospects rate as being contributors at major league level yet and thats ok. Formula basically gives no chance for players at lower levels unless at a position of high importance (like cf, c, or ss) and 55-70 defense. There is great raw talent at lower levels.

        I believe this rating system shows how much Phils brass values players even. Anyone ever notice how ss for instance are always high on top 100. Even a player like Crawford rates highly in top 100 as a current 50/50 hitter with 60/60 absolute ceiling and more likely he only reaches 55/55

    2. Now that the 2016 season has been completed, who in the minor league affiliates would you give the Pure Hitter Award to? I am a huge Cozens fan but I can see where he has a lot of holes that he’s going to have to overcome in AAA due to his K’s, splits, and his long swing.

  13. Under the new brass, just as minor league players are now being evaluated and promoted based on how well they are progressing in managing the strike zone, why wouldn’t the current major leaguers be evaluated and handled the exact same way? Speaking of Herrera, Franco and the like.

  14. I’ll tell you what – Rhys Hoskins had a hell of a year and best of all, he showed steady improvement as hitter through the the year in a way that bodes well for future success; limiting strikeouts and drawing more walks. I’m eager to see him in AAA next year.

    1. Yes!!! Rhys is my guy. I am a big fan of Rhys.

      Relatively low K rate. Very good walk rate. Big power and also great contact. No split issues. No statistical flags. Has had consistent performance at every level.

        1. His biggest flag was that he was really old for AA, but he was not particularly athletic and the scouting reports were mixed. Hoskins is literally two years ahead of where Ruf was when he was at AA. Hoskins is a significantly better prospect than Ruf was.

        2. Only flag was that he was 26, so materially old for the league…and that basically proves my point. it is so easy to get caught up in minor league stats. but for many reasons, they don’t always project to the majors.

  15. Readings offense has been special . . . They’ve score 5.56 runs per game, the next closest is 4.54. They have scored 779 runs, next closest is 636. Have also hit 189 HR w the next closest at 129.

  16. I’ll stick with my initial estimate of 72-90 for the Phils, I still think it will be close. My hopeful projection for next year is 82-80. We’ll see.
    I’m disappointed by the performance of Nola, Franco, and Herera. I’m also disappointed by the performance of Williams, JP, and Knapp, the three LHV guys who could have forced a move up but didn’t do well enough and now we have a compression problem and additional 40 man issues because Williams and Knapp are not ready for the majors in April. Pinto is another guy I had high hopes for who hasn’t done well. Same with Cordero.

    1. Murray I am in agreement with you but puzzled on your hopeful projection of 82 wins. How is this team going to add 10 wins or improve almost 15%?

      Can we get 1000 innings out of Nola, Eickhoff, VV,Thompson,Morgan and Eflin? We can’t have this group throwing 24-pitch innings especially to start the game.

      Howard replacement is Tommy Joseph for the year? Okay maybe but need more contact and better AB’s.

      Knapp hasn’t shown he is the backup in 2017 in my book.

      Bourjos is gone. Goeddell is in AAA. Altherr is up and down. Herrera is a mess right now (suffering from the Dom Brown makes All-Star syndrome). Who in the minors is going to give us production? Like you said it’s not Nick Williams right now.

      I personally am pessimistic for 2017 right now and actually thinking we take a step back. That should cause some heated debate.

      Anyone look at Kingery’s numbers at AA? Not setting the world on fire. He also has 5 walks in 150 AB’s. Not good for a projected #2 batter in a MLB lineup.

      1. Joe,

        Awfully early to project next season, but I also think it could be a disappointment for those who expect significant progress in games won. BTW, I predicted 64 wins last season, which put me one off, and 74 this season so I’m still either on target or in range. A repeat next year sounds right about now.

        Finally, for those who think contender in 2018 or 2019, I caution that it took the 1980 and 2008 champions several years to develop after the core arrived.. If the new core does’t arrive until next year and 2018, a champion in 2022 is more likely than 2019.

        Even if this is the core coming, they won’t all progress on a straight line, witness Herrera, Franco and Nola.

  17. Very frustrating weekend following the Phils. The manager has a “hitters only” meeting to talk about being more selective at the plate and we see guys swinging at 3-0 and 3-1 pitches. Does PM have a TAKE sign? Does everyone have the green light? Then Pete has a press conference where he says he beats them up on fundamentals but can’t make them execute. Can’t teach them to ice skate. Wasn’t this the year for fundamentals? Bunting? Base running? Seems to me this should not be a subject at a press conference around Labor Day. Looks like a failure by the coaching staff and management.

    I listened to Larry Anderson a couple of times last week and he is practically begging our starting pitchers to pitch inside more. Does our pitching coach stress this or is this another case of not being able to teach them to “ice skate”?

    1. As for the hitters, none of them (with probable exception of Franco and possibly Altherr) will be here in 2 yrs as starters. What’s supposed to be happening in the minors is the very thing Pete was meeting with them about. For this current roster, too little too late. Other organizations have been doing this well. With a new regime, we’ll need a learning curve. But at least it’s encouraging to know it’s in place if not yet ingrained.

    2. Tough to get young Latin players to change their approach when from the age of 5-years old they were playing on sandlot fields and swinging away. In time they seem to get it, but it could be awhile for some of them. North American kids at 5-years old are in Tee Ball and being instructed all the way up the chain thru high school, and for many it continues into college….in that regards they have an advantage over the Latin kids..So patience is required.

  18. Ok, after a lot of debate, I think that I found a realistic comp for Cozens…Pete Incaviglia.

    I can’t find Pete’s minor league stats, but in the majors, Pete routinely had huge splits (in his case he couldn’t hit RHP) and a 27% K rate with big power (career .507 SLG vs LHP).

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=incavpe01&year=Career&t=b

    He had a career 10 WAR over 12 seasons.

    before you 1 star this post (which many of you will), do some homework and find another corner OF with big power, near 30% k rate and huge handed splits.

    Of course, Cozens might be able to learn to hit LHP or drop his K rate. but unless/until he does, this is his Comp in my eyes.

      1. If I recall, Pete had a good arm in the OF too. But limited range, which makes sense since he was a big guy.

        My favorite Pete Incaviglia story is that I went to all of the home playoff and WS games in 1993. Oh boy, did Pete put on a batting practice show. We would wait deep in left field stands and he would just hit bomb after bomb. It was so fun to watch. Got us so jacked up.

    1. Pete didn’t play in the minors, he went directly from college where he hit 48 home runs with 143 RBI in 1986 to the majors in 1986. (He didn’t sign until November)

      1. Still my all time favorite Phil’s team and in my view better then either the 2008 or 1980 champs (lousy managing of the bullpen by Fregosi). My daughter who was 3 at the time loved Inky, she walked around all day saying “Inky”, Inky’, Inky”. Remember when he ran through the LF wall going after a ball? (was it in Atlanta) I felt so bad for the wall. Next year will be interesting for Dylan, like everyone else I am pulling for him and am hoping he can cut down on that swing.

        1. When you think about it…..about a third of that ‘93 team’s roster had some edgy personalities and quirky characteristics.
          Lenny laid waste to toxic dumping in CF with his chew and then all his other habits off the field…..Kruk and Mitch were two of a kind as themselves…Jackson tested the baseball jerseys for durablilty…. Dave Hollins was more intense than Francis Soyer of Stripes fame.
          Inky may have been the tamest but meanest looking after Hollins. Larry A. was pure comedian. Then there was the Curt Schilling –Mitch Williams towel feud.
          And Dutch kept the gang in line…for the most part. That team had to be the most interesting of any of all Phillies teams.

          1. Romus,

            Agreed. The most entertaining team. I remember seeing the Phillies on the cover of the Sporting News (remember the Bible of Baseball?) asking whether they would be Champs. At the time, I thought who are they kidding, but they did it in their incomparable way.

    2. Dave Kingman is probably the best comp I have but I agree with your overall premise that guys with high K/rates do not find ML success.

  19. Peeling off from the post season pitching report card, regarding off season trade/FA activity – IMO Matt K should be focusing in acquiring a veteran starting pitcher, and perhaps an interim 1bman (probably a LH hitter) since it doesn’t appear TJ is getting much love. The outfield is puzzling but I wouldn’t be surprised if Klentak goes after a RH bat.

    As for trades, which teams make good partners for either?

    1. Well if you are looking to continue the Jeremy Hellickson experiment with the hope of cashing in on a July trade prospect or a 2018 compensation pick…maybe Andrew Cashner may be a gamble for 2017. He is of the age and has the stuff….but just has not put anything together yet.

    2. I’d go for a left handed corner outfielder, a Scott Schebler or Jesse Winker from the Reds or Jarrett Parker from the Giants. A team with starting pitching depth pretty much by definition matches up with every other team so that defines the Phils when you’re shopping for a complementary piece. The closest we come to middle of the order bats are Franco, Joseph, Rupp and Altherr. The team should not be looking at 2017 close-up with just that mix.

  20. Boy, you can tell we’re playing out the string when Freddy Galvis is batting 5th. Why not cleanup? He’s hitting with as much power as anyone on the roster. Can’t wait for the hot stove league!

  21. Where would Galvis value be if he finished the season with the following:
    18 homers
    65 RBI
    20 steals
    .245 avg.
    gold glove defense
    All very reachable, except probably the steals. Would the defense and homers balance out avg?

  22. Caught tail end of an update on 94WIP mentioning Ian Desmond and Martin Prado as 2 possible FA candidates the Phillies might pursue in the off season. Can anyone elaborate? Interesting approach since top LV prospects aren’t developing as quickly as hoped.

    1. Cannot see signing either of the two beyond one year contracts….and that is not what they are after. Desmond, for one, settled with the Rangers because he knew their potential to get to the WS…not sure they would settle for the Phillies at one year. Prado may but I seriously doubt it. MK may pursue another vet arm for the rotation.

      1. You’re right, Romus. I wonder if MacPhail and Klentak indeed decide to go long term (3+yrs) on one major FA position player and piece the rest together. It might be presumptuous for anybody to think all or even most of the core pieces will eventually be home grown, especially the bats.

    2. I’m not saying I’m in favor of it but if you take Desmond for example a kid who is in really good shape and project him out it stands to reason that at some point in the future he could be a trade-able asset

      Not that he is in Beltran’s class but look at the two instances Beltran was traded to teams hoping he would help them down the stretch and the players he returned.

      A GM has to see beyond the immediate future and needs to be 4-5 moves ahead of the market and that at times is speculative but nothing risked nothing gained.

      1. MacPhail comes with quite a bit of cache. We’re used to following front office moves like paint by numbers with the previous regime when it’s more connect the dots if they’re doing it right. A good GM sees the picture before the dots are connected.

      2. DMAR…..now compare what the Phillies have done vs the Braves, Reds and Padres over the last 9 months. That is, every aspect of obtaining future assets. not sure I have yet seen any moves that are considered ‘outside the box’. Have they even yet spent all their number one slotted international bonus allocation?
        I want to see how they do their off-season.

  23. I don’t see where the addition of Prado or Desmond helps enough to warrant a multi year deal and neither come for less. The team is just not ready for that kind of a move and, while it is not my money, wasting money does not seem very smart. If there was a top notch FA that could be signed, with the belief that he is here long term and the team will be a contender while he is still in his prime, spend away. But, I don’t see that player coming here yet.

  24. I called Prado in a earlier post , Desmond scares me 1 VERY GOOD season with a load of good ones. Plus he protected by a very good Texas hitters. Maybe a pitcher in the last yr of his contract like Macphail has said. I experienced power hitter too Votto maybe interesting , although he stated he wants to stay in Cincy.

    1. Rather than go after age 30 and above position players, I would prefer that they focus on a young left-handed bat slotted into the middle of a batting order (Franco, Joseph, Rupp, Altherr) in a trade using the team’s young pitching depth. Guys I’ve mentioned are Scott Schebler or Jesse Winker in Cincy or Jarrett Parker in S.F.

      1. Jon Heyman of FanRag reported that the Phillies will pursue 2 veteran position players, naming Desmond and Prado, and spelling out the thinking behind it. MLB trade rumors also has the writeup posted an hour ago.

        1. 8mark. I don’t know if there are good free agents out there. But looking at this year. I would love to sign a veteran clutch hitter, I would prefer a right or left fielder. someone who hits in the clutch, to help these guys grow. I Don’t see us contending for at least two more seasons. But you never know if nola comes back stronger. it might speed things along. I like elfin. VV I love. Morgan disappoints me. I thought he would be better. eichoff keeps us in games. which suprises me, I was not a fan of his.

    2. The pitcher last night for the Marlins…Andrew Cashner is who I would go for at 2/$22M……with the sole idea of hoping to flip him at the July 2017 trade deadline to get max return. He is one of the youngest FAs out there. The Philies should be able to absorb the 2nd year of the contract with added prospects in return. It is a gamble and risk, but could pay big dividends even if he has a .500 record thru July.

      1. I’d sign Cashner to that type of contract in a minute. He still has a big potential upside – you could flip him or keep him. If he doesn’t work out, the two years cost less than one Ryan Howard bad year. By the way, at that price, if he doesn’t work well in the rotation, you could experiment with him in the bullpen – his stuff might play up very well out of the pen – like Wade Davis.

  25. Nats coach Dusty Baker pushed back his 3PM game-day media press meet to 4PM today.
    Not good if he announces Strasburg needs a 2nd TJ.

  26. The young pitchers have been dealing lately , they do need a couple vet bats in that line up.the next game they win Will be 64 that will tie there win total from last yr. They could win 10 more games which would put them at 74 wins .next yr could be the big jump yr.

  27. Rick Porcello the first 20 winner this yr. 2 thing stand out 28 bb in almost 200 ings , his ability to pitch at least 7 ings plus his 89 mph fb. He has over 100 wins in his career at the age of 27. Funny he has no Tj surgeries, bad shoulders .

    1. From Brooks on Porcello:
      “Rick Porcello has thrown 22,863 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2009 and 2016, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, the MLB Postseason and Spring Training. In 2016, he has relied primarily on his Sinker (90mph) and Fourseam Fastball (92mph), also mixing in a Curve (74mph), Change using a Palm Ball grip (81mph) and Cutter (86mph). He also rarely throws a Slider (85mph).

      ………4Smr at 92…….2Smr at 90.

      1. I’m going by what What my app the score has this as an avg of all his Fb. They go by Pitch x. Fb 90 mph avg 62.2 pct CB 74 mph 13.4 slider 85 mph 12.2 CH at 80 mph. Still I wouldn’t consider Porcello a hard throwing RHP by any means.

  28. Very depressing year for this team. I haven’t seen the improvements I thought would happen. Looking at Washington Nationals with another young stud in tea turner ,They will be hard to catch. when we counter with the pitching we have, and lack of bats. I thank god that no one listens to tim and his wanting us to sign more right-handers who have low velo. Rick Porcello is having a great year. but his numbers over his career aren’t great. But us banking on guys like we have seen so far. isn’t going to get us to the big show. The lower level kids might turn into the guys we have pitching now at reading and in our rotation.

    1. rocco……just dream of up the middle of Alfaro/Rupp….JPC….Kingery ….and Quinn for second half next season or 2018. That’s plus defense….and maybe ‘timely hitting’…and speed.
      Pitching…….ViV…..is a high velo guy who could be near the top of the rotation…maybe #2….all the rest (Nola/Eflin/Thompson/Eickhoff) seem solid 3s at the minimum and ceiling 2s.
      Anyway……look at all the high velo guys going down with assortment of ailments.
      .

      1. As Roccom puts it Kingery stinks. Most of us really are high on Kingery , there still a Hugh power void on the Phillies that needs to be addressed though free agents. Most of your mlb playoffs teams have 1 thing in common power hitters not power pitches.also hitters that don’t stikeout.

    2. Thank God the FO aren’t listening to Roccom Adam Morgan , Eickhoff, Thompson have been pitching very well. The Phillies FO doesn’t draft pitchers right handed with high Velo . Rich Porcello has over 100 career wins at the age of 27 enough said. BTW where are your high velo RH pitchers his yr. There not winning 20 games there Era isn’t under 3.00 For every RH pitchers throwing 94 plus in the Mlb there’s a 100 in minor league baseball fighting control command issues. The Phillies are dead last in runs scored not pitching.

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