2016 Draft Discussion, June 13th

Here’s the last weekly draft discussion for 2016.  I’m not going to keep the discussion going now that the draft is over.  This will also serve as the place to post any signings that I will add to the 2016 Draft Tracker.

To recap,

  • The Phillies selected high school players with their first three picks – OF Mickey Moniak, RHP Kevin Gowdy, and SS Cole Stobbe.
  • They filled out their top 10 with college players – LHP Jojo Romero (jr.), LHP Cole Irvin (sr.), CF David Martinelli (jr.), C Henri Lartigue (jr.), RHP Grant Dyer (jr.), RHP Blake Quinna (sr.), and RHP Julian Garcia (soph).
  • They returned to the high school ranks Saturday, selecting OF Josh Stephen, RHP Justin Miller, and RHP Andrew Brown in rounds 11 thru 13.  All three are from California and have college commitments.
  • They  switched back to college players for 19 of the next 21 picks before selecting high school players with 4 of their last 6 selections.

I heard today that the kid from USF is pre-med and may not be an easy sign.  A team mate was drafted from USF last year who had the same major, opted to continue his education rather than take the side trip through professional baseball.

Odd draft fact, this is the fourth year in a row that the Phillies have drafted a player from the College of Southern Nevada.

  • 2016 – RHP Tyler Hallead, 24 th round
  • 2015 – RHP Gabe Gonzalez, 36th round, didn’t sign
  • 2014 – C Scott Tomassetti, 34th round, signed and released this March
  • 2013 – RHP Will Morris, 24th round, signed and pitching for Clearwater

162 thoughts on “2016 Draft Discussion, June 13th

    1. I disagree with the conclusion that this draft will be a success if one of top 3 picks becomes an ML regular. I think we need more than that out of any draft and particularly a draft in which we pick first. You don’t go from last to first by getting just one regular per draft. That’s a good draft when you are picking in the bottom third, but not when your first and second rounders are in the top 20. My goal for a successful 2016 draft, considering draft position and team talent, is a starting position player, starting pitcher, reliever, and bench guy.

  1. Just a general question. Seeing as how we could end up with a top ten or even a top five pick next year, who are some of the guys people have their eyes on at this point? Obviously, it’s way to early to say anything concrete. As we saw this year, months of projections and predictions can change within a week of the draft. But who are some of the guys going into next year’s draft class and who is the player you most want to Phillies to draft?

    1. Here’s something from Fangraphs.

      2017 Draft Prospects

      This college class is relatively well-known to scouts because they just went through the draft process last year. They know which players turned down big money and which ones merely priced themselves too high. The tools don’t change much in the first year, so those freshmen that have played a lot and performed are easy to like; this top group of ten are guys that were known to turn down big money and also performed well in big roles for talented programs.

      I could list a few hundred other college freshmen worth monitoring, but the rest either are lacking tools, performance, opportunity or polish and some are missing multiple ones. That will obviously change in the next two years for many of them, but I wanted to focus on the guys that are already performing and have top 3 round tools.

      1. J.J. Schwarz, C, Florida: Schwarz was a 2nd round talent last year and it was a surprise that no one met his price. He’s made the most of his freshman year, nearly leading the country in homers (.290/.362/.617 with 13 bombs) and showing more hit tool than most expected from him this year. He has to tools to stick behind the plate but still needs a little work, while the bat and above average raw power are enough to play almost anywhere.

      2. J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, North Carolina: Bukauskaus was the best prospect not to sign out of high school last year and he’s still the same high profile guy. He isn’t big (5’11 or so) and there’s some effort to his delivery, but he’s regularly into the mid-90’s, has been into the high-90’s, flashes a plus breaking ball and the starter traits are coming along.

      3. K.J. Harrison, C, Oregon State: Harrison was another Hawaiian prep that stood out last summer along with Kodi Medieros but Harrison has taken a step forward with the bat this year. He hasn’t caught much but showed the tools to stick behind the plate in 2014; his power is now above average and he’s making more contact as well.

      Note: you don’t have to have initials for a first name to be high on this list, but it apparently helps.

      4. Jeren Kendall, CF, Vanderbilt: Kendall stood out at Area Codes last summer but struggled last spring and early this spring in college before catching fire. He’s a true center fielder with 70 speed, a solid lefty stroke and quick-twitch athleticism.

      5. Brendan McKay, LHP, Louisville: McKay has been a standout performer at the plate as well, but his future is on the mound, here he has solid average stuff and command with athleticism and feel to pitch.

      6. Tanner Houck, RHP, Missouri: Houck popped up last spring as a projection arm in the Midwest and took another step forward this spring. He’s 6’5/200, sits 90-93 and hits 95 mph with solid average stuff and command, with more stuff coming.

      7. Pavin Smith, 1B, Virginia: Smith has present plus raw power from the left side, looseness to his swing and a solid approach. He’s limited defensively but emerged in 2014 as a premium bat that also wanted a premium bonus out of high school.

      8. Alex Lange, RHP, LSU: Lange was up-and-down as a prep pitcher but has emerged as the ace for the top team in teh country as a freshman. At his best, Lange sits 91-93 and hits 95 mph with an above average to plus curve and average changeup and command, though the stuff can also play around average at times.

      9. Turner Larkins, RHP, Texas A&M: Larkins was one of my favorite arms from last summer’s showcase circuit. At his best, he sits 90-93 mph with an above average to plus changeup and a solid average breaking ball.

      10. Cobi Johnson, RHP, Florida State: Johnson’s dad is the Blue Jays’ roving pitching coordinator and that helps explain his feel for pitching. Johnson is a projectable 6’4/190 with three pitches that flash above average and some feel to pitch

      Other College Pitchers (23)

      RHP Mitch Hart (USC), RHP Alex Faedo (Florida), RHP Drew Rasmussen (Oregon State), LHP Kyle Johnson (Texas), LHP David Peterson (Oregon), RHP Bryce Montes de Oca (Missouri), LHP Jake Latz (LSU), RHP Tommy DeJuneas (North Carolina State), RHP Cre Frinfrock (UCF), RHP Keith Weisenberg (Stanford), RHP Derek Casey (Virginia), RHP Brad Depperman (North Florida), RHP Jake Godfrey (LSU), RHP Keaton McKinney (Arkansas), RHP Tylor Megill (Loyola Marymount), RHP Kyle Wright (Vanderbilt), LHP Cameron Bishop (UC Irvine), LHP Seth Romero (Houston), RHP Austin Bain (LSU), RHP Griffin Canning (UCLA), RHP Michael Baumann (Jacksonville), RHP Brad Bass (Notre Dame) and LHP John Gavin (Cal State Fullerton)

      Other College Position Players (11)

      C Evan Skoug (TCU), C Riley Adams (San Diego), CF/LHP Adam Haseley (Virginia), 3B Shane Benes (Missouri), CF Carl Chester (Miami), 3B Dylan Busby (Florida State), 1B/LHP Alex Destino (South Carolina), SS Dalton Guthrie (Florida), SS Connor Wong (Houston), 3B Mikey Diekroeger (Stanford) and C Michael Cantu (Texas)

      Since the physical maturity level is so wide between the college and prep prospects in this class, I won’t even both trying to combine them into one ranking. Only eight prep players got enough support to where I feel like they have a good chance to be ranked high in this class at the same time next year. As you can see, the top player in this group is there in part to being the age of a 2018 prospect, and predictably all come from baseball-happy, warm-weather areas, playing on the showcase/travel team circuit.

      High Schoolers to Watch (8)

      1. Mark Vientos (17.5), SS, Flanagan HS (FL), Miami (FL) commit: Vientos is aged like a 2018 prospect but even if he was a year older, he may still be the top player in this class. He’s a 6’3/170 shortstop with a chance to stick at the position and a broad base of precocious skills that led one scout to mention Manny Machado. Vientos turned 15 in late December and has to be considered alongside 2016-eligible Venezuelans SS Kevin Maitan and C Abraham Gutierrez as the top players in the world at that age.

      2. Hunter Greene, RHP, Notre Dame HS (CA), UCLA commit: Greene has been a buzz name this spring after impressing at the 16U Team USA trials. I haven’t seen him yet, but Green is at least 6’2, was described as uber-athletic and already sits 90-93 mph. Greene also goes to the same high school as Giancarlo Stanton.

      3. Hagen Danner (18.7), RHP, Huntington Beach HS (CA), UCLA commit: Danner is close to filled-out at 6’1/185, but he already sits in the low-90’s, flashes an above average curveball and an average changeup. 5/26/15 UPDATE: The velo was even better in a playoff game against likely 2015 1st rounder C Chris Betts, sitting 92-94 and hitting 96 mph.

      4. Ronald Washington (18.2), LF, Dulles HS (TX), Texas commit: Washington was the big buzz name in this class early last summer when he flashes five average or better tools led by his above average power, but he’s maxed-out at 6’0/210 and may have simply reached his physical ceiling earlier than his peers.

      5. Freddie Zamora (18.6), SS, Killian HS (FL), Miami (FL) commit: Zamora is more of a glove-first type shortstop, but he squared up a couple pitchers this spring that were into the mid-90’s. Zamora will be seen a lot next spring, with a potential 2016 1st rounder in teammate C Herbert Iser.

      6. Justin Farmer (18.5), CF, Riverview HS (FL), Florida commit: Farmer drew a comparison to Daz Cameron from one scout for his size and quick-twitch skills.

      7. Alejandro Toral (18.4), 1B, Archbishop McCarthy HS (FL), No commit: Toral was too heavy last summer but has slimmed up now and the power-hitting lefty has hit and hit with power everywhere he’s played.

      8. Hans Crouse (18.7), RHP, Dana Hills HS (CA), No commit: Crouse is 6’4/170 and has already hit 95 mph. Everything else is a little rough, but he’s 16, so this is a pretty good start.

      1. The fangraphs report was last one prepared by Kiley McDaniel on 4/27/15. Here is something from Fueledbysports.com on June 10, 2016.

        Round 1

        Pick Team Player Pos HT WT School
        1 Atlanta Braves J.J. Schwarz C 6’1″ 205 Florida
        2 Minnesota Twins Mark Vientos SS 6’3″ 175 Charles W. Flanagan HS (FL)
        3 Cincinnati Reds Brendan McKay LHP 6’2″ 203 Louisville
        4 San Diego Padres Hagen Danner RHP 6’1″ 185 Huntington Beach HS (CA)
        5 Oakland Athletics Alejandro Toral 1B 6’1″ 215 Archbishop McCarthy HS (FL)
        6 Arizona Diamondbacks Alex Faedo RHP 6’4″ 220 Florida
        7 Los Angeles Angels Cole Turney OF 6’1″ 200 William B. Travis HS (AR)
        8 Tampa Bay Rays DL Hall LHP 6’2″ 170 Houston County (GA)
        9 Colorado Rockies Jeren Kendall OF 5’11” 180 Vanderbilt
        10 Milwaukee Brewers J.B. Bukauskas RHP 6’0″ 189 North Carolina
        11 Houston Astros Royce Lewis SS 6’2″ 180 J Serra HS (CA)
        12 Philadelphia Phillies K.J. Harrison C 6’0″ 200 Oregon State
        13 Chicago White Sox Jordon Adell OF 6’3″ 200 Ballard HS (KY)
        14 New York Yankees Tanner Houck RHP 6’5″ 202 Missouri
        15 Detroit Tigers Conner Uselton OF 6’3″ 185 Southmore HS (OK)
        16 Kansas City Royals Jake Burger 3B 6’2″ 210 Missouri State
        17 Toronto Blue Jays Kyle Wright RHP 6’4″ 200 Vanderbilt
        18 Miami Marlins Hunter Greene RHP 6’3″ 195 Notre Dame HS (CA)
        19 Los Angeles Dodgers Charles Leblance SS 6’3″ 195 Pittsburgh
        20 Pittsburgh Pirates Jayson Gonzalez 3B 6’2″ 205 Bishop Amat HS (CA)
        21 St. Louis Cardinals Turner Larkins RHP 6’3″ 210 Texas A&M
        22 Seattle Mariners Hans Crouse RHP 6’4″ 170 Dana Hills HS (CA)
        23 Cleveland Indians Drew Rasmussen RHP 6’1″ 225 Oregon State
        24 New York Mets Pavin Smith 1B 6’2″ 200 Virginia
        25 Boston Red Sox Freddie Zamora SS 6’1″ 175 Miami Killian HS (FL)
        26 San Francisco Giants Cobi Johnson RHP 6’4″ 190 Florida State
        27 Washington Nationals Hagen Owenby C 6’1″ 206 East Tennessee State
        28 Baltimore Orioles Justin Farmer OF 6’0″ 195 Riverview HS (FL)
        29 Texas Rangers Dylan Busby 1B 6’3″ 185 Florida State
        30 Chicago Cubs Tyler Wilson RHP 6’3″ 220 Rhode Island

        I am not a big JJ Schwarz fan for 1.1. Best position is DH. Louisville’s McKay is a great hitter who had a HR on Saturday. Hunter Greene RHP from Notre Dame (CA) is my bet for making it into top 5.

    2. Next year’s draft is supposed to be very strong for college pitching. Missouri’s Tanner Houck, Florida’s Alex Faedo, UNC’s JB Bukauskas, LSU’s Alex Lange, Stanford’s Tristan Beck, along with two guys I really like … Kyle Wright from Vanderbilt, and lefty David Peterson from Oregon. The two college bats who could go near the top of the 2017 draft are CF Jeren Kendall of Vandy, and C KJ Harrison from Oregon St. The top two HS players are SS Mark Vientos, and 1B Alejandro Toral (who I think is ranked #1 HS prospect by Perfect Game). But, as the 2016 draft has shown, anything can happen in a year’s time.

      1. Hey if Groome goes to JC and reenters the draft next year the Phils could get him in the 2nd round!

  2. The kid from south florida is 23 yrs old in a month. I would go to med school too. Not much of a chance he ever makes it.

  3. The Phillies will likely field a 20 million dollar GCL team.

    Moniak CF, Gowdy SP, Stobbe 3B and Stephen OF: 12 million +
    J Ortiz OF, Marchan C, D Brito SS and Gamboa 2B: 6.5 million

    Outside of Ryan Howard, Hellickson and Morton, the GCLers probably made more than the rest of the major league team.

      1. Based on his bonus and time in Instructs and XST, Ortiz definitely starts in GCL this year – that is going to be a heavily followed group. Think Gamboa will be SS for Williamsport. We will find out for sure in a day or two as Williamsport has a meet the team event on Wednesday so they will probably announce rosters for both teams soon.

      1. I saw that too. I think they plan on moving him to 3rd but are keeping him at SS to help the transition to professional ball.

      2. Team has said they are intrigued by him as a potential SS with power. Most analysts believes he moves off of SS pretty quickly.

        1. There is literally zero downside to seeing if he can handle SS…the transition to 3B, 2B, CF is pretty painless so its always best to start a guy at the highest position he can handle on the defensive spectrum and go from there.

  4. I think the Phillies did a great job with their draft building for the future – it will be great watching how the HS guys perform in the GCL to start their careers. Also very interested in seeing how the college guys drafted fare at Williamsport along with some of the GCL guys from 2015 moving up.

    The other big interest in this year’s draft to me is seeing how AJ Puk and Logan Shore develop and progress now that both have been drafted by the A’s. I’m a big believer in Logan Shore and think he was the best pitcher in the draft. Now we get to see how the A’s handle both and whether it’s the tools of Puk or the intangibles of Shore that win out over time. As a baseball fan, this will be a fascinating story to watch over the next 2-5 years.

  5. The first three picks are all arguably first round quality, with 2 of them hard signs. Then several of the later rounds are much better than the round they were selected in and again hard to sign. In a few years we will see if the team hit a home run in the draft.

  6. I will find I hard to believe that the first three picks will be hard signs I would be confused. If there weren’t deals in place.. before the draft

    1. I think he meant that they are gonna be over slot signings is all. I would imagine that the Phillies had hand shake agreements in place for the top 10ish picks. If they didn’t for at least the first 3 I imagine that the Phillies would be in sorry shape bc that would mean the GM is clueless.

  7. Nick Senzel signed. He received a $6.2 million dollar bonus. Interested to see how this compares to Moniak. I think most of us were assuming Moniak would get ~ $5.5 million?

      1. I had it:

        Moniak … 6 million
        Gowdy … 3 million
        Stobee … 1 million
        Josh Stephen … 700 thousand

        1. I think the pitchers picked 11th and 12th (Miller and Brown) will get roughly 9th round money … 170 thousand.

          IMO, #22 Kyle Young (6’10” LHP) will get a little more. Maybe 200 thousand.

          #27 Davis Agle will be the most interesting. Not sure what he’ll want to skip Clemson. But, I hope the Phillies have enough to sign him. Not predicting the next Jacob DeGrom, but he does have a similar story. Position player making the move to the mound, and he’s already up to 95 MPH.

            1. I think he has already signed and committed to Clemson….in three years he could be a day one pick.
              IMO, the 30th round offering will not be enough to get him to forego Clemson

          1. A Brown will sign he said it in an article. Possible top 30 sign alot have there tweeter accounts change over to Phillies org.

    1. TG….do the math…..5.5 is only 61%…..heck Carlos Correa did not go at that low of a percentage (67%)….and he was very under slotted a sign

      1. i believe but 100% they must offer 2/3 of slot in the first 2-3 rounds or forfeit the replacement pick in the next draft.

    2. I believe it was reported in a San Diego paper Moniak was set to receive close to 7 million.

    1. Daniel …
      Here’s an interesting name I first read about on BA.com earlier this year … Andrew Carber.

      “Carber graduated from high school back in 2013, and has spent the last two years at Clemson, where he’s played for the club golf team. A three-sport athlete in high school, Carber missed the competitive nature of baseball, and decided to give pitching another chance about six months ago.

      On Monday, the 6-foot-9 Carber showed off three pitches and an intriguing delivery. His fastball worked at 87-91—impressive for an indoor January bullpen—and he showed a tight-spinning breaking ball with 11-to-5 shape and bite, especially when thrown to his glove side. His long levers work to his advantage on the mound; he has a long stride and lands online. Carber has a short arm action and finishes cleanly out front.

      Carber said that he has been working with Pennsylvania pitching coaches Sam and Josh Wernick, subscribing to Tom House’s pitching philosophy. This spring, Carber will play at Harford Community College in Bel Air, Md. Based on his skill set, Carber is likely to generate significant interest from power conference colleges, though he is eligible for the 2016 draft.”

      Since he is already over-aged (I’m assuming he’s 22 YO), I thought Carber might be a FA target. He fits right in with the theme of tall pitchers the Phillies were drafting on day three. Here’s some video of him:

  8. Went back and checked. its fairly common for 1st pick to receive less than 2nd pick in the slot bonus system:

    2012:

    1 1 Astros Carlos Correa SS Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, Gurabo, P.R. PR $4,800,000

    1 2 Twins Byron Buxton OF Appling County HS, Baxley, Ga. GA $6,000,000

    2013:

    1 1 Astros Mark Appel RHP Stanford CA $6,350,000

    1 2 Cubs Kris Bryant 3B San Diego CA $6,708,400

    2014:

    1 1 Astros Brady Aiken LHP Cathedral Catholic HS, San Diego CA unsigned

    1 2 Marlins Tyler Kolek RHP Shepherd (Texas) HS TX $6,000,000

    1 3 White Sox Carlos Rodon LHP North Carolina State NC $6,582,000

    2015:

    1 1 Diamondbacks Dansby Swanson SS Vanderbilt TN $6,500,000

    1 2 Astros Alex Bregman SS Louisiana State LA $5,900,000

    1. Well if he signs below the 6.2M Sensel threshold….then that will make everyone happy…especially Gowdy

      1. Just saw Reds and Senzel agreed. I immediately started wondering if that will have any impact on Moniak & Phillies. Or do you think there was already an agreement between Moniak and Phillies?

          1. Thanks, Romus. Closer to $7mm it appears. I am not disappointed by the Phillies’ draft even if the signing number is a bit higher than some posters (not on this board) hoped for.

  9. Yeah I really don’t know what his bonus will be. I thought Puk would get around $6.5 and didn’t think Moniak would get more than $6. I’d be shocked if Moniak got $7 like someone mentioned above. That’s a huge number….more than anyone has gotten since slot system started. No one has received $7 million bonus since slot system started and I doubt Moniak, a kid who just as easily could’ve been the 5th pick as the 1st, is the first to get to get it. I still say he got under $6 million

  10. assuming the Phils knew Moniak’s (and Gowdy’s and probably Stobbe’s) number and then drafted the rest of the way based on that , not sure how much the actual # matters at this point., Stephens seems like the only significantly over 100k bonus guy after round 10 likely to sign (maybe HIllhouse too?), and there should be plenty left to sign him even if they went 7 mil on Moniak. but my guess is closer to 6.

  11. If the Senzel deal is announced and he is getting 6.5 then I don’t see how Moniak would sign for less than that.

    If he does that is really going to raise some eyebrows and call into question the slot system when discussing the next CBA. While the players in the MLBPA won’t negotiate for amateur players the agents most certainly will as will Tony Clark.

    1. The Slot system has already been questions showing the top 3 teams being in the driver’s seat for the draft. They can sign a kid for $300,000 if they want too. They just have to offer a certain % so they do not lose the pick if he changes his mind.

    1. I was looking over the 1998 phillies draft. Has it been pointed out that 5 of all their pics had any significant ml time? Burrell, Michaels, Geoff Geary, Nick Punto and Ryan Madsen. That was also a heavily high school weighted draft.

      Recall just a couple yrs ago some were declaring Cord Sandberg and Mitch Walding to be perenial ML all stars….Heck, why bother with minor league games?

      Point is; When top hitting talent goes up against top pitching talent, they need to tighten the belt a few notches. In 7 yrs, I’d be surprised if 5 of this draft bunh are in the ML’s.

      Anyine know what the phils best draft year was in terms of producing starting ml players.

      Anyone know what the ratio difference between college players liklihood of making the show and H.S. players?

      1. The Marti drafts are filled with toolsy high ceiling type players that never made it Above A .the new Scouting Chief Alvarez believes in Hittabilty and Pitchabity C is hurt but is in lakewood last yr # 1 hs hitter .Appel was 1.1 College pitcher he’s in AAA hurt.Nola was the top college pitcher in his draft he’s one of top young pitchers in MLB .Two first rd college pitchers to different out comes so far. The 2 best young hitters in baseball came out of hs . Nobody really knows that answer 10 yrs ago the Metrics sys wasn’t as good as it is now. You might just have to trust the new talent personal Alvarez, Matt Klentak, Macphail .

  12. Florida has to win tonight to get 1 that’s right 1 SEC team in CWS finals . It’s not the SEC yr this yr.

  13. It is a good thing there are 47 players in extended spring training because it does not look like any of the drafted players will be ready for Williamsport’s opening night on Friday.

    1. I hope for nothing but the best for Puk he seems like a nice guy but man that guy can’t seem to find the plate.

      1. I watched the game on ESPN and both AJ Puk and the FSU pitcher were both being squeezed by the home plate umpire.

  14. This is for fullfilledpro who was very impressed [agree] with 1998 draft of 5 major leaguers. Still it comes a very distant 2nd to that amazing 2008 draft of Mike Arbuckle’s. No less than 10, count em, 10 players made it to the majors, a few of which are still contributing at the big league level.

    Gose, Worley, Pettibone, May, Stutes, Schwimmer, Cloyd, Rosenberg, Cosart and Broxton all made it to the majors. And several of them had at least a modicum of success in the majors. Also worth noting that 8 of them were pitchers. Can you imagine drafting 2/3 of an entire staff in one draft? To me, almost staggering.

    1. I think Susdorf also got a cup of coffee. The most amazing part of it to me is that we missed on our first two picks(Hewitt and Collier) and still produced this many players.

    2. Thanks for that info. 1998 was the comparative year because they drafted 1:1 and then first every round. Tgere were several others who “made it” to the show… i.e. Eric Valent and a couple others but I didn’t consider them as having a
      significant stay or impact as regular ML ers.

      Tgat comparison might drop 3 ir 4 off your list, but its a lttle early to say. I always liked Trevor May and Cozart was a later round draft I believe.

      So again, though its fun to project success…these guys are basically national college and high school all star teams several layers deep. When the great pitcher meets tge great hitters their great pitching potential and possibility isn’t always tge same. And the same goes for when the great hitting prospect meets great pitching prospects (from several years of drafts) their hitting success and prowess often becomes less ‘great’. Add injuries to the mix… and again, lets revisit this topic in 7 years and see where they stand and what has developed.

      There is likely a reason that the phils shot for other teams #1 & # 2 draft pics in their recent trades of Hamels, Giles, etc. I wonder how they are going to handle Hellickson this year. To me, he would be a good one to resign if attitude and all other variables are favorable.

      5?, 6?, 3? 2? How many regular mlers will come out of this draft? Its fun yo speculate and project and hope for thier best success, but the odds say perhaps 5 and perhaps no ‘superstars’ which was hoped for.

      FP

  15. And as pismo55 noted; they mis-shot on their top 2 draft picks that year. I do like tge approach of going aftef “baseball talent” rather than athletic talent as was noted to be a dominant (and flawwed) theme and goal under previous Scouting directors. Hopefully that resolves some of the previous high draft failures of several….many years such as Hewitt and Collier.

  16. But maybe they’ll mis-shoot on Miniak, etc this year.

    Perhaps…….making it to the show shiuldn’t be and isn’t the only measure of success for tge draftees and draft….but playing a few years of pro ball and the experiences and people surrounding it might be part of the “success” of the draft for both the teams and the players.

  17. I was totally out of the loop this weekend with my daughters high school graduation/grad party.

    Did the Phillies do the thing yet where they bring Moniak to Philly to take BP at citizens bank/do an inning on the broadcast/meet the media? Or where they on the road since the draft? My mind is mush right now and I don’t feel like looking it up.

    Hopefully Phillies top ten pick signing start leaking out soon. If I remember correctly last year, didn’t the Phillies announce a bunch of post 10th round signings all together the week following the draft? Williamsport starts on Friday, so hopefully there will be a slew of signings announcements by this afternoon or tomorrow.

    GCL starts next Friday so may have to wait a little longer for some of the high profile high school signing announcements…

    1. Did the Phillies do the thing yet where they bring Moniak to Philly to take BP at citizens bank/do an inning on the broadcast/meet the media? Or where they on the road since the draft? My mind is mush right now and I don’t feel like looking it up.
      ………..no…stay tuned…maybe Thursday vs Jays or this weekend , Friday, vs D-Backs

  18. Congrats TommyGunn on your daughter’s graduation. What is she off to next? Wish her the best. Nothing yet with Moniak other than an interview on the sports shows.

      1. Likes Moniak. Thought Cole Irwin was a steal in 5. Very excited for guys in picks 11-12-13. Thinks the 11 was the 2nd or 3rd best HS bat in CA.

        1. He also said when asked about the level of comp Moniak faced, was the best in the country for HS.

    1. Ok Alvarez said they were in on Mickey Moniak as The #1 since the 1st wk of May.they think where Micky mo came from gas the best HS baseball anywhere. ON Gowdy be has been up too 94 fb knows how to pitch. They really like Cole Irvin Lhp and thought Stevens was 1 of the best bats . Alvarez thinks Moniak and Stobbe can hit between 15 and 25 Hr’s . Alot of sighing will be next wk.

  19. This is the first Phillies signing I’ve seen reported.

    From
    jim Callis:

    6th-rder David Martinelli, @Phillies agree on $312,700 (full pick value). Steal at No. 167. Dallas Baptist CF, all-around tools. @MLBDraft

      1. Pretty sure that’s just poor wording – it’s a random “anybody can write” social media/blog site, I think.

      2. I think he was just stating what the value of the slot was. If Philly signs Moniak to a full slot bonus idk what would happen but I can’t imagine it would be good.

    1. I was happy the Phillies drafted Martinelli. He reminds me of a more advanced Aaron Altherr when he was drafted. Martinelli’s K rate is scary and he struggled when asked to use a wooden bat during cape cod. However he all the tools to make it in the big leagues so here’s to hoping.

    1. If I were his adviser…..go to BC.
      If he can play decent ball there, in three years he may have a decent shot at least as a top ten round pick. which could be worth more than $100K

    2. imagine his brother would be giving him lots of advice. he signed out of HS and was putting up great numbers in mlb at age 21 before getting ill at age 25 and never being the same- if he had gone to college, he would have just been hitting the big leagues before getting ill so wouldnt have made the few million that he was able to.
      still, hard for me to advise a kid to give up college unless he’s getting a real nice payday for it.

      1. Agree…giving up college , especially BC, for a remote chance at the majors as the 39th round pick and only a limited bonus signing.
        At least his brother got a significant bonus as the 1st round-6th pick in his draft way back when.

        1. I know BC isn’t a baseball power but their baseball program isn’t that bad right now. It’s actually one of the better ones in the Northeast with a great coaching staff as well. Good people with the program.

  20. Not sure if it’s been mentioned but grant dyer is signing with the club. His aunt is the principle at my son’s school and said he’s flying out to philly in the next few days.

  21. Wow….Jim Salisbury says Moniak deal is done and he is getting between $6.5 and $7 million bonus. And Gowdy getting $4.5 and Stobbe between $813K (his slot) and $1 million.

    http://www.csnphilly.com/philadelphia-phillies/phillies-move-toward-deals-top-draft-picks-moniak-gowdy-stobbe

    Heres the top bonuses from the last few years to compare:

    2012:

    1 1 Astros Carlos Correa SS Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, Gurabo, P.R. PR $4,800,000

    1 2 Twins Byron Buxton OF Appling County HS, Baxley, Ga. GA $6,000,000

    2013:

    1 1 Astros Mark Appel RHP Stanford CA $6,350,000

    1 2 Cubs Kris Bryant 3B San Diego CA $6,708,400

    2014:

    1 1 Astros Brady Aiken LHP Cathedral Catholic HS, San Diego CA unsigned

    1 2 Marlins Tyler Kolek RHP Shepherd (Texas) HS TX $6,000,000

    1 3 White Sox Carlos Rodon LHP North Carolina State NC $6,582,000

    2015:

    1 1 Diamondbacks Dansby Swanson SS Vanderbilt TN $6,500,000

    1 2 Astros Alex Bregman SS Louisiana State LA $5,900,000

    1. Moniak seems high to me. That would be one of biggest bonuses given out to a player under the current system since 2012. It’s surprising to me because Moniak was supposed to be a guy u get for significant savings since he was projected by a lot of people to be drafted between 5-12. I though he would get under $6 million. But more than 45 million. I guess I was pretty far off…

      1. ‘It’s surprising to me because Moniak was supposed to be a guy u get for significant savings ….’…..at least $2M is significant savings….they have no issues signing Gowdy and Stobbe and the remaining top ten should fall right in line.
        Josh Stephen may be the only hang up.

        1. I am bad with these signing. If Moniak gets 7 million. Then 4 for gowdy. which is a big overslot. Do we have any money to sign the kids at 11 thur 13. I cant believe they went that much over for gowdy.

          1. rocco…they still have the 5% overage leeway to work with. And my guess, 4 thru 10 should all sign slot or under. So whether or not they get all three…Stephen, Miller and Brown remains to be seen. They should get two of them easily.

            1. As for Justin Miller, he has a ride with Fresno City college, so he could be willing to get his pro career started relatively earlier then wait a few more years. I assume if he was offered a ride to play at one of the larger PAC-12 schools his decision to sign with the Phillies would be dubious at best.

      2. Latest HSers:
        2015- Brendan Rogers—Pk3—$5.5M—6.2M slot—88%
        2014- Tyler Kolek—Pk2———-$6M—–6.8M slot—88%
        2013- Kohl Stewart—PK4——–$4.5M—Slot value signing
        2012- Carlos Correa—Pk1——–$4.8—-7.2M slot—-67%
        2011- Dylan Bundy—PK4———$4M—-(6.25Mguaranteed)

    2. Keith Law is a non-believer. From his chat today:

      Q “Jim Salisbury, a well connected Philly writer, says Moniak is getting $6.5-7M and Gowdy is getting $4.5M. The Gowdy number can’t be true, can it?

      A I doubt those numbers are true, sorry”.

      1. Hinkie…not sure about Gowdy….but there was a San Diego paper over the weekend,that had Moniak at close to $7M, so that would put that in line with what Jim Salisbury reported.

        1. it said the bonus would be closer to 7 million than the 9 million slot. My reaction was, 6 million is closer to 7 million than 9 million is.
          but with Wentz at 3 and Muller at 2.5 for Atlanta, just dont believe Gowdy at 4.5.

          and running the numbers, if those bonuses were true, even saving a good amount on rounds 7-10, they would be at the pool plus excess before signing anyone for over 100k after round 10.

        2. From a Jim Salisbury tweet tonight:

          Upon further review, my bonus numbers on Phillies’ first- and second-round picks yesterday were high. Both will get done next week. Thanks

  22. Also, matt Winkleman has tweeted a few other signing today:

    Pending a physical, CS Fullerton RHP Blake Quinn (Bullard) and Central RHP Justin Miller are expected to sign with the #Phillies today.

    Congratulations to @DannyZardon27 who was drafted by the Phillies and will sign with them. Best of luck Danny!

    MHU Lions ‏@mhulions · Jun 14

    #MHUBSB: Rogers Signs Free Agent Contract with Phillies http://bit.ly/1tuH8MZ #MHUSports

    Paul Valencia ‏@360PaulV · 17h17 hours ago

    Tyler Hallead, Camas Class of 2013, today signed a contract with the Philadelphia Phillies organization:

    Former @USFBaseball OF Luke Maglich signs with #Phillies, meaning all 3 drafted Bulls have signed. The story

    1. Wish I could read his twitter account but he blocked me for asking “What is fair compensation for minor league baseball players?” Unreal.

  23. The following players have signed and were working out at the Complex today –
    #14 Darick Hall
    #17 Danny Zardon
    #19 Will Hibbs
    #20 Caleb Eldridge
    #24 Tyler Hallead
    #26 Tyler Kent
    #28 Jordan Kurokawa
    #29 Alexander Kline
    #31 Tyler Frowirth
    #32 Daniel Garner
    #34 Luke Maglich

    1. Great news Congrats to all young men. Welcome to the Phillies org I was Worried about Darick Hall he’s only 20 and he also on the bump .I wonder if they will try hi at both hitting and pitching.

  24. There was also a player whose last name is Fultz. He was working out with the pitchers. He may be a signed, undrafted free agent. The only players named Fultz I could find in the college ranks were Matt Fultz and Alex Fultz, both catchers.

  25. I also saw all the players from the GCL roster and XST participants except Matt Laird ansd Scott Harris.

    RL and DL players were also sighted – Herlis Rodriguez, Stankiewicz, and Therrien were running drills with the other players. Stumpf, Appel, and Asher were not involved in the workouts.

    1. I believe the suspension starts today. It is based on 80 games played by the last roster on which he was active, in this case LHV. Much the same way that Freddy Galvis served his suspension when he suffered a back injury in 2012. He went on the DL in early June, went on the RL a couple weeks later, came off the RL in August, and went right back to the DL for the rest of the season.

    2. Dehydrochlormethyltestosterone…what the heck!
      Sounds to scary to ingest purposely…the guy from the Blue Jays, Cola…., says he does not know how it got into his system…maybe the same with Asher.

        1. rocco….it was reported on philly.com. First time I ever heard of it myself.
          Though I know old guys like me who take testosterone…for health benefits mind you.

          1. This stuff was developed by the East Germans, in 1962, for undetectable use by their Olypmpic athletes. It doesn’t get into baseball players’ systems “by accident.” The players may or may not know what they’re taking – but the personal trainers, or staff trainers, or agents, or whoever is preparing their “suplement” cocktails, certainly do know. “I don’t know how it got there!” is just blowing smoke.

    1. Liking me some Cole, building that infield depth so we’ll be rocking up and down that lineup. If Franco goes free agency in ’21, we’re good.

  26. From Matt Winkleman:

    Matt Winkelman ‏@Matt_Winkelman · 28m28 minutes ago

    Some Signing Bonus From BA:
    Henri Lartigue (7th) $220,000 ($12,000 savings)
    Grant Dyer (8th) $175,000 ($7,800 savings)
    Blake Quinn (9th) $172,600 ($0 savings)
    Julian Garcia (10th) $80,000 ($81,300 savings)

    Total savings on slot values = $100,300

    1. All those guys from 4 thru 10 should have been be slot or under as expected….but to sign all of the three of Stephen, Miller and Brown at 11,12, and 13 the Phillies will need to that and a little more and be more creative. I think if they can get two of the three it is a good thing. Stephen will be the hardest to sign.

        1. it has the same thing for Moniak, so that just looks like the default for guys drafted but unsigned.

      1. was thinking they might be able to save a little more there.
        would assume Romero and Irvin would sign for around slot- and Stobbe around 1 mil.
        then you’d have 11.1 mil in pool and excess for Moniak and Gowdy, and post round 10 bonuses over 100k. so the 7 and 4.5 figures thrown out are simply not possible.
        if the numbers are 6.5 and 3, then you’d have 1.6 left for Stephen and everyone else.
        Drafting Stephen in round 11 rather than later, I have to assume they have confidence in having the excess to meet his number.

        1. I think the 7 and 4.5 numbers are both high by at least a million each (maybe more for Moniak). But we shall see…

          And I have been assuming that Irvin would be substantially underslot since he is a college senior

          1. yes, forgot about that with Irvin.
            overall, think they are fine to sign everyone they truly hoped to.

            1. If they can break Stephen’s commitment to USC I will be totally surprised. it will take major dinero to get him to sign. Miller and Brown should be easier.

            2. I think they’re very confident they’ll sign picks 11-13 (including Stephen at 11). The big questions for me are Kyle Young at 22, and Davis Agle at 27.

    2. Not a big deal, but if those signing bonuses are correct, the savings from slot would be as follows:

      Lartigue (7th) – $14k savings (slot = $234k)
      Dyer (8th) – $9.8k savings (slot = $184.8k)
      Quinn (9th) – 0 savings (slot = $172.6k)
      Garcia (10th) – $81.3k savings (slot = $161.3k)

      Total savings from slot on these four picks = $105.1k

    1. Good deal. I thought it might take 1.5 – 2.0 million based on the reports of college commitment. They should have plenty for Josh Stephen now.

    2. That tells me that HS OFer Stephen, at 11 will be initially offered in the 500/600K range to start. Drafted HS position players after the 10th round rarely sign MLB contracts, some do, most do not.
      Pitchers are different due to the fluid and more uncertain nature to their futures and you will get more signing on the MLB dotted line.
      As a point of reference, the only HS position player the Phillies were able to sign as their 11th pick in the last 15 years was Tyler Geene, ss, in 2011 and he signed for a little less than $400K.
      I believe he had an ACC or SEC commit on the books…maybe Georgia or Georgia Tech not sure.
      Other HS position player ‘teen’ round draftees they just couldn’t sign, for whatever reasons, mostly money I assume, …Garvey, Susac, Stewart and a few others earlier on.
      Many gambled three years of college baseball would get them more money and a higher pick, most never did get there…Susac was one who did.
      And some did sign as later drafted players….OFers Vern Biter and Johnathan Knight for two..but not many
      In this case, Stephen could be looking at anywhere between $500K and $1M for all we know to break his USC commitment.
      Do the Phillies have the total pool money resources to meet his demand and the remaining lower draftees they want to sign?

      1. all depends on what the numbers for Moniak/Gowdy are, as to what they will have left. but the 500-600k offer for Stephen would seem about right- might have a little more room than that but not too much.

        1. I would think if the Phillies can get him for that amount he will be tempted to take it.
          Hope he doesn’t expect as much as Stobbe. That will not happen.
          Anyway, these position guys after the 10th are hard sells.

          1. Good chance for Stephen. Salisbury said after further review his bonus numbers for Moniak and Gowdy were high.

        2. Just a guess, but it may take more than that to sign Stephen, who appears to have a strong college commitment. I’d say more like $750k to $1M. I doubt the Phillies would go more than the $1.1M they gave Stobbe. Again, just a guess.

    1. Well Romus, Ben Badler from Baseball America thought the Phillies draft was very good. Eveyone has an opinion but only time will tell if the Phillies did well.

      1. Yeah…had seen that.
        This guy was just ranking the Phils vs the rest of the NL East teams.
        Mets loaded up with college players…like the Phils did last year….so they have proximity favorability on their side.
        Braves took a bit of a risk with ian Anderson at three and the Nats seem to do their usual draft….with the injured arm drafted.

      1. If Gowdy signs for anything less than $3.5M, then signing Stephen at 11, will be very favorable
        Stephen could still get between $700-900M and be willing to break his USC commitment.

    1. It’s a mistake. The $1.1M is for Stobbe in round 3.

      Based on what it took for the Braves to sign Wentz and Muller, I expect Gowdy to command somewhere in the $2.75M to $3.0M range.

      1. Cardinals signed 34th pick college pitcher Dakota Hudson for approx. $1.9M…on slot. With HSer LHP Muller at $2.5M by the Braves….as you predict Gowdy could be signed for less than $3M

  27. I don’t know anything about these picks, but I was just wondering why did Blake Quinn sign for slot? As a Senior I guess I thought he would sign for a lot less like Tobias did.

    1. i show he’s a junior. also, seeing the Giants also signed Matt Krook for 500k, only 32k over slot.

      1. I was just going off the draft tracker and it says Senior which is why I thought he would sign for under slot but if he’s a junior then it makes sense.

  28. Not that it means anything significant…but the Twins signed their HS pick at 56, 14 picks after Gowdy, for $900K…$200K under slot.
    And the Rangers signed their 63rd pick, HS pitcher Alex Speas, for $1M……at slot value.
    And Pirates signed their HS pitcher at the 68th pick, Travis Macgregor at $900K…$50K under slot.
    Starting to think Gowdy can be signed for a little over slot.

    1. two factors are how much leverage the threat of going to college actually is, and the other is how much pool $ the team actually has.
      look at the 2 other teams that saved significant dollars under slot on their first pick.
      cincy saved almost 1.6 underslot on nick senzel, and gave almost all that savings to 2nd round pick taylor trammell, giving him 3.2 million.
      atlanta hasnt signed 3rd pick ian anderson, but its going to be well below 6.5 slot, so they gave Wentz 3 million and Muller 2.5 with the $ they know they will be saving.
      who knows, they might have even told Moniak that part of the money he will be “giving up” signing under slot would be going to his USA teammates Gowdy and Stobbe.
      Gowdy will be a minimum of 2.5- even if its 3 or a little older phils should be fine with $.

      1. I do not see any issues with the top two picks….they already have reached agreements and will be announced soon…..just wondering how much will be left to go to Stephen at 11 to make him break his USC commitment.
        I like to think if Gowdy agrees to $3M or less, then Stephen’s offer should be in the $650K-750K range …and hopefully he will be happy and sign for that amount.
        Now the highest HSer outside the 10th round, was for $600K by the twins fro RHP Tyler Benninghoff at the 333 pick. Stephen was the 317th pick

  29. ‘According to the Phillies official website, they have signed 19 of their 40 draft picks. Moniak, Gowdy and Stobbe are listed as unsigned, but sources say the team has agreements with all three players, pending physical exams, which should be completed in the coming days’
    Power bat Alex Woj, 15 rounder from Minnesota DII school, ……may not sign yet, due to an elbow issue it appears..

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