2016 Post Draft Discussion

Here’s the final thread to continue talking about the 2016 First Year Player Draft.

The Phillies conclude their portion of the 2016 First Year Player Draft with picks 11 thru 40. Those selections, as well as the first ten,  are being tracked in our 2016 Draft Tracker.  As signings are announced, the tracker will be updated.  Be sure to share any information and I will incorporate it into the tracker.

The Phillies returned to the high school ranks Saturday, selecting OF Josh Stephen (Mater Dei), RHP Justin Miller (Central Union), RHP Andrew Brown (Granite Hills) in rounds 11 thru 13.  All three are from California and have college commitments.

They  switched back to college players for 19 of the next 21 picks before selecting high school players with 4 of their last 6 selections.

In all the Phillies drafted –

  • 12 HS players (1, 2, 3, 11, 12, 13, 22, 30, 35, 38, 39, and 40)
  • 2 draft eligible college sophmores (RHPs #10 Julian Garcia from Metro State University and #36 Mac Sceroler of Southeastern Louisiana University)
  • 3 JUCO players – 1B Caleb Eldridge, RHP Tyler Hallead, RHP Davis Agle
  • 14 college juniors
  • 8 college seniors
  • 1 fifth year college senior
  • 11 players from schools in CA
  • 6 players from schools in TX
  • 3 players from schools in FL
  • 2 players from schools in MN, LA, NC
  • 1 player from each of the following 14 states – RI, NE, AZ, OR, MS, GA, HI, CO, NV, SC, IN, KS, NY, OH
  • 16 RHP
  • 7 LHP
  • 6 Outfielders
  • 4 Catchers
  • 3 Shortstops
  • 3 First basemen
  • 1 Third Baseman

 

54 thoughts on “2016 Post Draft Discussion

  1. Two things I’ll be watching:

    1. JoJo Romero vs Matt Krook. The Phillies could have drafted either LHP at the top of the fourth round. They chose Romero. Krook went 18 spots later to the Giants. Krook is a former first rounder (Miami), but did not pitch well this year in his first season back from TJ.

    2. How much will AJ Alexy sign for with the Dodgers. I was hoping the Phillies would draft the PA RHP in rounds 6 – 10. He was committed to Radford, so I figured he wouldn’t be demanding a huge bonus. The Dodgers took Alexy in the 11th round.

    1. Krook could require more money or want to go back 1 more year to improve his stock possibly? phils keep talking about command and Krick struggled this year with that- some of it certainly can be attributed to coming back from surgery.

    2. alexy has definitely agreed to an amount im told, so it should be out shortly..
      wow, his high school coach had him throw 164 pitches in a game last month.

  2. Kyle Lewis signed for $3.287M. Some publications had him as the 3rd best prospect in the draft. He went #11 to the Mariners. I’m not sure what that means for Moniak’s signing but I believe the consensus on here is between $5.5M and $6M. As a young kid, I couldn’t even imagine making $5+ million in my entire lifetime let alone before my 19th birthday. I’m sure the Phillies had at least a handshake deal before the draft. as a Phillies fan, I hope he takes closer to $5.5M but as a supporter of young talented kids, I hope he gets much more.

    The first three picks in the Phillies draft, are slated to get nearly 85% of the total pool money. It looks like those 3 guys will get at least 75% of the pool money. That could leave around $1.3M for overslots and some 11- 40 fliers. I’m not sure I see anyone in the 4 – 10 slots who will get much overslot. Plus the 5% overage pool, they could have $1.8M to $2M for some harder signs after the 10th round. Maybe two of Josh Stephen, Justin Miller and Andrew Brown. That would be a great draft on paper. 4 or 5 years from now will be the decider but hopefully we’ll be talking how great this draft was for years to come.

  3. Bellman I am amazed at kids who don’t sign. I just cant imagine being offered 4 million or even 3 with a guaranteed college fund, Set up if you don’t make it. You would have to work 30 yrs at 100000 a year to make that money. Ben davis said the other day his parents wouldn’t let him touch his bonus. While he was in minors lived on 800 a month. That is tough. I Heard most of these kids live with family’s in the area. I am having a tough time finding Justin miller and Andrew brown, anything on them?

    1. rocco….here is what John A. said about them, and also Josh Stephen:
      “[Miller and Brown] are big kids. They’re throwing in the low 90s right now and they have upside still. It’s good for us to have two upside guys right there.”
      “We had [Stephen] evaluated as the third-best high school bat in California,” Almaraz said. “A really good looking kid who can hit. He has power. We think he’s a corner guy who’s going to hit for average and hit 20 home runs.

    2. I know it doesn’t happen a lot but how often do kids not sign for a million plus? I couldn’t imagine being 18-22 years old and being offered a million dollars but in a sense if you are a top high school prospect and you truly believe that you can get drafted at the same spot if not better(in a couple years)and then get placed in a better league(which means more money) while getting a great education I can understand why some kids go back to school. It still would be one hang of gamble but I could see the flip side of betting on yourself.

      1. Chad……Jim Callis had a pre-draft article on signing bonus demands:
        I am wondering if the prospects will modify their demands now after their selections and how much the teams will go overslot to make it happen.
        Jason Groome is reportedly asking for a $4 million bonus……(Boston….$3.2M)
        Matt Manning, RHP, Sheldon HS (Sacramento, Calif.), No. 11. a reported asking price of $5 million…..(Detroit-$3.5M)
        Blake Rutherford, OF, Chaminade Prep (Canoga Park, Calif.), No. 8. $3 million to give up his UCLA scholarship….(Yamkees -$2.4M)
        Joey Wentz, LHP, Shawnee Mission East HS (Prairie Village, Kan.), No. 16. he wants top-10-pick money. The assigned value for the 10th selection is $3,380,600…(Atlanta….$1.6M)
        Jared Horn, RHP, Vintage HS (Napa, Calif.), No. 34. it will take $3 million to lure him away from a California scholarship
        Drew Mendoza, 3B, Lake Minneola HS (Minneola, Fla.), No. 36. Clubs think negotiations will start at at least $3 million and aren’t sure even that will be enough to pry him away from attending Florida State.
        Will Benson, OF, The Westminster Schools (Atlanta), No. 38. Word is that his family wants the same $4 million bonus that fellow Georgia prep outfielder Daz Cameron got from the Astros as a supplemental first-rounder a year ago. …(Cleveland….$3M)

          1. They all have deals in place, but sometimes, and it happened to the Phillies, the kid changes his mind and wants to go back to school. And then everybody on this board goes crazy on the Phillies for not being able to sign the guy.

          2. Because after the first few picks of the first round you don’t know who is going to be the player you want to draft. If you have an early pick in the first round you can talk to a number of prospects but after that there are too many possibilities to be worth the effort.

      2. Chad they give you the education money I believe. So you gambling that in three years. you will get more than 1-2 million. I will take the money at 18. can always go back to school. Now if you a Johnny Manzel whos father is a millionaire that might change things.

      3. not sure it always comes down to pure finance vs college. its also a matter of maturity; at age 17./18, am i ready to be a professional, riding buses, etc.

  4. I know some people felt underwhelmed by the draft after day 2, but I think the team made up for it on day 3. Maybe I’m mistaken but it seemed like they took more HS fliers after round 10 than usual, probably thanks to the amount of pool money.

    Can’t wait for the GCL to start and Moniak to (hopefully) tear it up.

    1. I really like the top 3 picks, some risk but great upside. Many feel the 1st pick on day 3 was the best available. Only time will tell

  5. You really have to like the way Johnny Almaraz runs the draft. He is a forward thinker. I don’t think another team has ever done so well on day-three of the draft. By “done so well” I mean draft talented prep players who will sign. According to Todd Zolecki, the team expects to sign Stephen, Miller, and Brown (Picks 11-13). My guess is they saved an estimated 1.3 million on picks 1-10. I think they may have a shot to sign Kyle Young (22nd round … 6’10” HS LHP from NY) and Davis Agle (27th round 19 YO JUCO RHP who throws 95 MPH).
    IN 2012, when Houston saved bundles of money by drafting Carlos Correa, at 1.1, they weren’t able to sign any of the 7 HS players they drafted in rounds 11-40.

    Also … question for anyone who knows … Are the Phillies able to use their 5% over-slot money on day-three picks, or is that only to use on picks with slot values (1-10)? I was assuming it covers all picks, but I’m just not sure.

    1. My understanding the 5% can be used on all picks. My other guess is that Gowdy and Stobbe received 2x’s their slots. We should have a little over $1 million for others if we include the 5%.

      I also have Moniak think Moniak gets $6.7 +/- $200k

      1. From Matt W on Phillies Minor Thoughts: “Fangraph/ESPN’s Eric Longenhagen expects him (Stobee) to sign for close to slot.”

        1. That is a pleasant surprise…..less than $1M would help somewhat making it more favorable signing some of the other HSers further down in the draft.
          Moniak is still the key signing, if he does a rather pedestrian 67% signing, like Correa did in ’12 ($4.8M/$7.2Mwhich was way under slot)…it will still give the Phillies $3M to play with. IMO, he comes in around $6.5 or 72% of slot.

      1. Seems like he signs, and the Phils apparently think the HS guys from rounds 11-13 sign as well. So potentially 4 HS signs out of rounds 11-40, at the least.

        That sounds like some good scouting there.

    2. anything OVER 100k for the guys drafted after round 10 counts against the poo plus the excess.

    1. looks like just 25th rounder Trevor Bettencourt, reliever for UCSB, who is trying to upset Louisville in the super-regional. The Gauchos. love that.

      1. wow, just happened to turn to Gauchos game as a freshman pinch hitter takes first round pick Zach Burdi deep for a stunning grand slam to win 4-3 and knock Louisville out of the CWS.

        1. 2 in Zona , UCSB, so much for the SEC ,Acc power confences. Maimi should get in everyone in Sec is fighting today for there Bid. Miss st lost to Zona.

    1. I think this happens as soon as the team can conduct physicals. Most of those who said they were signing talked about coming to CLW for physicals, but not until next week. I’m guessing the first actual signings, although there are already agreements contingent upon the physical, beginning late Monday to mid-day Tuesday. Phillies always announce the first group of signings about a week after draft. Team gets back in Philly on, I think Wednesday, so probably initial signings announced Thursday morning.

  6. Sec down to 3 South Carolina out Okie st takes them out still unbeaten . Okie st, UCSB ! Miami no Sec team yet.

  7. My expectations were too high hoping for the grand slam of Moniak and Rutherford which I think was ‘possible’ financially just from 1.1 and 2.1 money. Groome would have worked as well.

    Since that did not happen, 2 out of the Top10 dream went away so then only Wentz appeared as a highly ranked guy left so Braves got him.

    Gowdy seemed like good consilation prize and fits Phillies model of going for control pitcher. Stobbe seemed like a smart 3rd though I would have preferred Luzardo who I was hoping would drop to the 4th.

    In 4th, I could have seen Funkhouser but not sure how much he’d want as Senior sign, as that could have saved some bonus money. I hope they are right on JoJo.

    Like Irvin as he could improve more post TJ surgery. Martinelli was well liked so that seems very good. The others in Day2 seemed to fit their plan.

    Since they likely had extra pool money going into Day3 it appears they smartly went after known signable HS prospect I. 11th. For 12 and 13 they are likely HS guys they knew would sign for they $100K limit regardless of their bonus allocation.

    The exciting part will be the number of later round guys they can sign. Certainly, I would have preferred the quality of Rutherford over Gowdy/Stevens (and Stobbe if it was necessary) but since the Yankees foiled that plan, I think they did okay with the leftovers.

    1. Logan Davidson…….will the Phillies offer enough to the 30th rounder, to break his commitment to Clemson?
      A decision he will need to make….however, in three years he could see a bigger payday as a fist day pick.

  8. The latest draft tracker plus the bonus amounts bandied around for 1:1 and 2:1 and assuming Romero and Irwin sign for slot, equals $13,560,300 or so. The total pool plus the 5% equals $14,075,460. So that leaves $515,600 for overslots. Justin Miller #12 was signed and I’m sure it was for more than $100K. The question is do they have more money for other guys.

    The draft isn’t just who you take but it also includes who you can sign. If Moniak takes $7M and Gowdy gets $4.5M, then the number of overslots after the #10 spot are limited. A successful draft would be to get two guys like Moniak and Gowdy but also get 3 or 4 lottery tickets after round 10. With the money the Phils had and the fact there was no true #1 in the draft, it looked like the draft would meet my expectation but it’s looking more and more like they won’t get to 3 overslots after round 10. It’s just putting all your eggs in a couple of baskets instead of spreading it around a little more to find a couple of diamonds in the rough.

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