2016 Draft Discussion: Day One

Gooood Morning Phillies Fans!!!

Here’s a thread to talk about the 2016 First Year Player Draft.  It won’t actually occur until 7:00 pm tonight.  But this will provide a place for any draft discussions.  I’ll post a new one each day, as well as a 2016 Draft Tracker.

Coverage starts on MLB TV with a preview show at 6:00 PM ET.

Round One begins at 7:00 PM ET.

Coverage will extend through Round Two and conclude with Lottery Round B.

The draft tracker and the daily draft discussions will be included under “2016 Draft Discussions and Picks” selection on the menu under “The Draft”.  Or you can go directly to the page here.

Please be considerate toward each other when commenting.  Language is monitored and blocked automatically.  But I have to monitor arguments.  I would prefer not having to block anyone. 

Last year some comments became vicious and personal during the draft and I had to ask Gregg to block a couple of people due to personal attacks and language directed at each other and toward other commenters.  Soon after my request, Gregg gave me the necessary authority to block people. So, I don’t have to ask this year, I can react much quicker as I monitor these threads this week.  I will not hesitate to block bad behavior before it gets out of hand.  Thank you.

391 thoughts on “2016 Draft Discussion: Day One

  1. Today will be all about the draft and tomorrow will bring out the boo birds and the to-the-moon guys. Once the dust settles, we’ll be able to slot some guys and determine who will get demoted from current rosters. Might even be a release or two or six….

  2. Obviously excited about who the top pick will be (hope it’s Moniak), but I’m equally interested in who 2.1 will be, too. Thanks for this awesome discussion venue, JP.

      1. I would love for that to happen, but I don’t think it will. I’d be happy with Joey Wentz, though.

    1. Agree with this. I will take it even further. I am interested in whom they take in the top 10. They may be able to save enough on 1.1 to take an overpay guy in the 5th / 6th round range (like the Cubs did with Cease a few years back).

      I know Pint will not be the pick, but he intrigues me more than anyone else.

    2. Of the rumored 1-1 picks, who would likely cost the most vs least to sign? For the 2-1 pick, who would be the 5 high school names to hope don’t get drafted before that?

      1. Good questions.
        I would guess the three college guys would be less expensive….Puk, Lewis and Ray …and sign further lower underslot than Moniak or even Groome.
        As to five HSers hoping to fall…..IMO a slew …RHP Manning, LHP Wentz, LHP Muller, OFer Rutherford, INF Perez or RHP Ian Andeerson….maybe another Stanford pitcher (oh boy those Stanford pitchers) Cal Quantrill.

  3. I ‘m hearing Moniak again but the only 2 people I really trust are saying most likely Moniak . I watched a game pitched by Manning his Fb explodes out of his hands you can see the Athleticism in his delivery. Ian Anderson is another name that is said to be a hard sign .

    1. Better also to check out Texas HSer LHP Kyle Muller…….almost 30 Ks in a row over two Texas HS games. There are some big time competitors down there and hitters are not push overs..

  4. I want:
    1:1 – Lewis @ 6 million
    2:1 – Manning @ 5 million or Wentz @ 4 million
    3:1 – Jesus Lazardo @ 1 million or AJ Puckett @ 800K

    1. I believe in the old Rolling Stones song: “You can’t always get what you want, but if you try sometime you just might find, you get what you need.”

  5. I’ve some of comps of Moniak’s hit tool to Yelich’s, but does Moniak have the same ground-ball tendencies as Yelich? Obviously Yelich is still a great hitter, but his large amount of grounders limits his power.

  6. I’m excited because we have a top 5 system and we ahould have two new guys in our top 10 in 14 hrs. A Mickey mo and manning or a Kyle Lewis and Ian Anderson. All sorts or great combinations.

  7. If one of the top guys isn’t there at 2.1, I wonder if the Phils are considering not signing whoever they pick there. You can then get that pick next year and use the savings from 1.1 to sign a fistful of $500k-1mil high school guys later and play the numbers game.

    1. Interesting. Quantity over Quality…. I think we need quality (2 pitchers and a few bats) though right now to elevate the big league team to elite in a few years.

      1. I would normally agree except that since the baseball draft is such a roll of the dice, you can’t have that much certainty that you are getting “quality”.

        1. To clarify, that is why I would do this if one of those top guys isn’t there but if they are, I feel good enough about them to justify quality over quantity.

  8. I think it will probably be Kyle Lewis.

    Lewis – 40%
    Moniak – 30%
    Puk – 20%
    Field – 10%

    I’d love Wentz at 2.1, but reports are that he’s a very tough sign. Anyone else see that Groome committed to a Juco in Florida so he can re-enter the draft next year if he doesn’t sign?

  9. According for ESPN, Perez tested positive for PEDs. Not that he was a Phillies favorite, anyway, but it supports the argument that taking steroids does not necessarily make you a better hitter

  10. Keith Law’s final mock…I agree completely.

    1. Philadelphia Phillies
    Mickey Moniak, OF
    La Costa Canyon HS (Carlsbad, California)

    I’ve heard them with A.J. Puk and Kyle Lewis and to a lesser extent Corey Ray and Blake Rutherford, and I wouldn’t be surprised if any of those guys is taken here. It’s going to depend on the price tags; if the Phillies can save $1 million by taking the No. 2 player on their board and then apply that money to sign pick 42 to an overslot deal, they’ll do so. And they should — it’s exactly what the current CBA encourages teams to do.

    http://espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/insider/post?id=2770

    1. Finally what I been hearing for about 3 wks . Great to hear let’s hope 2.1 is a great pitcher.

  11. Well I still desperately want Groome, kid isn’t even 18 yet and already has all the tools and build, a little maturity is all that he is lacking, which is understandable from a 17 year old. In 3 years I expect we will all look back and wish that they had taken him.

    But I’ve accepted the Phils don’t seem interested. It also doesn’t seem likely they’ll go with Pint who I also like a lot. So that leaves Puk, Lewis and Moniak. Honestly not in love with any of them, but if you are gonna get Moniak under slot and then get another big time guy at 2.1 then I can live with it. Otherwise might as well go Lewis.

  12. Funny how we’re all going back and forth with this pick when in reality it’s already been made. Gillick and Uncle Charlie have made their case for Mickey Mo. We’ll see if Andy, Matt and Johnny bought it. My guess is if Klentak and Almaraz disagree, MacPhail tips the scale.

  13. I’m starting to think there’s a decent chance the Phillies get Groome at 2.1 Hear me out…

    1. Groome wants a signing bonus of at least $4M. (“Reports have also indicated that his agent, Jeff Randazzo, has suggested a $4 million signing bonus for his client, which is exorbitant for all but the top few picks.”)
    2. The Phillies have $10,551,200 slotted for the first two picks in the draft. If Moniak is the pick at 1.2, there should be plenty left over for Groome’s $4M.
    3. If he doesn’t go top-5 the Reds are really the only team that might be able to draft him, but it’d probably be at #35, their supplemental pick. And that depends on if they have enough left over after signing #2 (if it’s Puk/Lewis, they probably won’t have enough).

    If Groome falls out of the top-5, I think there is a good chance the Phillies take him at 2.1 and give him $4M+.

    A few weeks ago did anyone think it possible that we could walk about with Moniak AND Groome? I think it’s still unlikely, but very possible.

    1. According to the mlb.com article I posted, Groome cancelled a meeting with Billy Beane this week.

  14. Here’s a little something different…instead of us al saying who we want the Phillies to draft again for the 10th time.

    What level does you think each of the following players would start at if drafted by the Phillies. Not where you would start them….please post where you think the Phillies would start them. I’ll make the disclaimer right now that just because I, or someone else, thinks one player would start at a higher level, it doesn’t mean they are necessarily a better prospect or that the Phillies should draft them.

    Possible 1:1 picks:

    Moniak – Lakewood
    Puk – Clearwater
    Lewis – Lakewood
    Ray – Lakewood

    Possible picks at 42 (yes I know all of these guys wont fall, just dreaming here):

    Perez – Williamsport
    Groome – Williamsport
    Rutherford – Lakewood
    Manning – Williamsport
    Wentz – Williamsport
    Quantrill – Clearwater

    1. If it’s Moniak, I think they’d go the same route as Randolph last year. Start him off in the GCL. Can you imagine an OF of Moniak, Rutherford, Jhalyn Ortiz, and Ben Pelletier?

    2. All HS picks (in regardless of what round) will play in GCL and if somebody separates themselves from the rest of the GCL team will be moved to WIL.

      Puk, Lewis, Ray Quantrill if any of them will be drafted will play in LWD.

      I don’t see anybody jumping to CLW right away as we have some prospects in LWD that will be promoted to CLW in the next coming weeks.

    3. If the Phillies were to stretch Moniak to Lakewood, Ray and Lewis would definitely be going to Clearwater. But I’m inclined to think Moniak at Williamsport, Lewis at Lakewood, Ray at Clearwater. Otherwise I think you’re spot on.

    4. Yeah, Moniak would start in the rookie league. Puk and Ray could start at Clearwater. Lewis would probably go to Lakewood.

    5. Regarding Moniak, I just went back and looked the top high school hitter selected in each of last 5 drafts and where they started:

      2015 Brendan Rodgers (3rd overall) – Rookie League (Williamsport for Phillies equivalent)

      2014 Nick Gordon (5th overall) – Rookie League (Williamsport)

      2013 Clint Frazier (5th overall) – Complex League (GCL Phillies)

      2012 Carlos Correa (1st overall) – Complex League (GCL Phillies) – finished year in rookie league

      2011 Bubba Starling (5th overall) – Rookie League (Williamsport)

      Judging by Moniak’s alleged 70 hit tool I think he starts at least in Williamsport. My original prediction of Lakewood is probably a bit optimistic. I would say at least Williamsport for Rutherford as well, due to his allegedly advanced bat and the fact he is 19.

      1. There’s no point rushing him. I’d follow the Randolph model of letting him play the rest of the year in the GCL, and then starting him at Lakewood next year.

        1. It’s not about rushing him to me. It’s about challenging him. GCL is basically a league of high school players and 16-18 year old players new to America. Sure there’ some college players but most college players go to rookie ball and a few to A.

          If I take Moniak at 1:1 and he has this great hit tool, I would challenge him by putting him in Williamsport to face recently drafted college pitchers and to be honest my hope would be that this league isn’t even a huge challenge to him if he’s my 1:1 pick…

          1. The average age in the Gulf Coast League is 19.7, according to SABR. It’s not as Bush as you make it out to be. The kid would have to get accustomed to handling a wooden bat regularly, living on his own in a strange place thousands of miles from home, and would be facing professional pitchers who are coached up on a daily basis. GCL would be more than enough of a challenge.

            1. Well, I didn’t call it bush…

              I said its basically a league of high school players and 16-18 year old foreign players.

              I just went back and looked at last years Phillies GCL roster. There were 17 players on rosters. One of them was a college player. The rest were….wait for it….high school players and foreign players new to America.

              So like I said originally, I would challenge Moniak and send him to at least Williamsport. We’re not talking about a 16th round pick here…we’re talking about 1:1 selection with 70 hit tool.

            2. My point is that the GCL will be plenty challenging. Plus, it makes sense to keep him in Clearwater close to the complex, given that he’d probably participate in instructs after the season.

              If he kills it in the GCL, give him a taste of Lakewood (like they did with Crawford three years ago).

            3. Haaaaaaaa I’m not sure why we’re arguing. My point is I don’t think he’ll be challenged by GCL. Or shouldn’t be challenged by it anyway. You don’t agree. End of story

            4. not sure if there’s really a big separation of talent or challenge between GCL and WIL that will affect Moniak. But I do agree with Mike that the proximity to CLW complex will be helpful to their transition.

    6. of the college guys on the list I would be really surprised to see any of them higher than LKW and would probably bet on WPT

      For the HS kids I’d be surprised if they placed any of those higher than GCL to start.

      And I would expect if they signed quick they would have a good shot at a bump up if they have a nice start at any of those levels.

      1. Phillies start all of their HS players at GCL. Gives them a good environment to start their transition to pro ball and life away from home for the 1st time. No long bus rides in the GCL, players live together close to the complex, no cars needed, etc. More like a college environment to make it easy as possible for the HS kids.

  15. Personally, i prefer Groome since I’m homeboy but the pick will be MONIAK – combination of potential, signability and $$. Maybe Moniak can also talk to his buddy Rutherford, not to sign but the Phils! 1.1 Moniak and 2.1 Rutherford for $10-11M is doable. It will be fun to check GCL everyday to see how the OF of Ortiz, Moniak and Rutherford will progress.

  16. According to Matt Gelb, the entire draft is at a standstill because there isn’t much difference in talent near the top of the draft, and everybody is looking to go under-slot to over-sign later. “But the Phillies are not alone in that strategy. Multiple teams in the top 10 see little separation between the available players. Agents for players and executives for teams behind the Phillies are not yet willing to commit to deals because they do not know how much of a discount the Phillies will reach with the No. 1 pick. The Phillies won’t commit because those teams won’t commit, and agents are reluctant to deal without knowing what players’ numbers below them are. It has created a stalemate.”

    Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20160609_Phillies__first_draft_pick_still_a_secret.html#I765zMvlX41Q15MU.99

    1. So it would benefit the Phillies to not let their 1:1 signing bonus number out until after round one, if that’s even possible. specially if the guy they draft at 1:1 has an agent who has other potential first round picks as clients

  17. if Randolph was in this draft, would he be considered for number 1? I am gauging how excited I should be about Moniak compared to how excited I am about Randolph.

    1. No, but if Andrew Benintendi was three weeks younger, he would have been the 1-1 pick this year.

  18. Size on draft night:

    Player A: 6’1″ 190
    Player B: 6’2′ 190

    Scouting report on Power Tool on draft night:
    Player A: “He should have future average power.”
    Player B: “Projectable home run power, consistent doubles power.”

    Player A = Mike Trout http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2009/reports.jsp?content=trout
    Player B = Mickey Moniak http://m.mlb.com/news/article/182490654/phillies-should-draft-corey-ray-with-top-pick?topicid=151437456

    I am NOT, repeat NOT saying Moniak will be Mike Trout. NOT saying that.

    My point is you don’t know how an 18 year old kid will develop.

    For example, we don’t know if Moniak’s growth plates are closed or still open. What if he adds another 2 inches. What if he puts on 20 points of muscle and maintains the plus (or plus plus) hit tool.

    1. If he turned out to be a consistent .300 hitter and gold glove CF it would still be worth it even if he only averaged 10 homers a year.

    2. Obviously you’re not saying Moniak is Trout. Moniak is one inch taller.

      Therefore …

    3. I appreciate your point (and agree), but after watching both videos its clear neither were 190lbs. One looks significantly bulkier than the other.

  19. If taking Moniak gives us the opportunity to draft one of Perez/Rutherford/Groome/Wentz or another top 20 talent at 42, count me in. What an exciting day!

  20. This may have an impact on the 1-1 pick. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo are now mocking AJ Puk to the Rockies at 1-4. If correct, this may drive down his bonus demand. If signing bonus is as big of a factor in the Phillies’ choice as is being reported, Puk may still be in play.

    1. Call Klentak and ask him to call up Buchanan and SevGon and bring back Amaro to sign O’Sullivan, McGowan, Correia, MiniMart, Sardinah, Wigginton. That will be a good cornerstone to catch the lousy Atlanta Braves for the tanking crown.

    1. with the ability to spend around 5 mil at 42 it just seems like they should be able to float someone down there. sure hope so.

      1. There is a report that the Braves are interested in Groome at 40, but do not want to match his rumored price tag of 4 Million, seems like the Phillies could do that at 42

        1. If Moniak accepts between $5M- $6M, could we still overslot Groome at $4M+ and still get him at #42?

          1. @8mark – I think this is doable. A bonus slot of $10-11M for 1.1 and 2.1 will not hurt the Phils ability to still draft good players from Rds 3 to 10.

            $10-11M might fetch the Phils 2 of Moniak, Rutherford, Pint, Muller, Anderson or Wentz.

    2. Hinkie…..I am somewhat disappointed in Matt Klentak in not obtaining the Red’s 35 Comp Bal pick….perhaps he tried, just not sure…..but I would think offering one of the many young RHP already in AA or above may have enticed the Reds to bite. This year….more than any other in the past or probably in the future (since next year they may be lucky to get in the top 5 alone) …the Phillies have the most allocation pool money available to them.
      What would have Sam Hinkie done?

      1. @romus – i thought of this too. Since Lively is playing well this year and behind Asher, Thompson, Eflin and Appel in the depth chart – Klentak might want to offer him back to the Reds + another AA prospect for the Red’s Comp Pick.

        1. KuKo……I look at John Coppella and John hart of the Braves and how creative they have been, bolstering their farm and some trades that were really looked upon as Brave-sided, and other than the Giles trade….and maybe the Rule 5 pick of Goeddel…..its really nothing special so far emanating from the Phillies FO……Ruben’s last hurrah generated most of the movement. .

    3. I’ve seen Moniak listed numerous times at 6-2 190. Not the 6-1 170 mentioned in the article.

        1. Both are same height.

          Tocci is 20yo and listed at 160 pounds

          Moniak is 18yo and listed at 190 (but might be a little closer to 180).

          That is a very big difference in physical profile. Not saying Moniak is a beast, but he is far more built than Tocci.

          1. Last summer he was 167 lbs according to a report …he said that he was closer to 180 now, than 190…..so he is high 170s….not sure there is that much of a big difference in the physical profile

            1. I don’t see how “closer to 180 than 190” means high 170s. I think you are misinterpreting that. Anyway, MLB has him at 185 tonight, which is significantly bigger (while 2+ years younger) than the 160 Tocci is listed at.

  21. Best posting so far on Phillies undecided selection at 1.1:
    managgia :
    If they can’t decide, do it the way we did in Little League. Pick the player with the hottest mom.

    1. Romus that is hilarious!!!!! Can’t tell you how many little drafts I was involved with where the hottest mom was the most important “intangible”!!!

  22. BA Moch 5.1 is up:
    http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-draft-5-1-moniak-remains-top/#f0uAhxswF6g26Buy.97

    By the looks of this, Matt Manning could be the guy the Phillies are floating to #42. I like Ian Anderson a little more, but John Manuel thinks the Braves want to over-pay him at #40. In the end, If the Phillies end up with Moniak and Manning or Wentz, it will be a successful night. I guess it’s also possible they could save a little money at #42 by taking Gowdy and selecting another over-slot guy (or two) later.

    1. How do you read this statement of rule for the draft?
      ‘Should a team exceed its draft pool by five percent, it will pay a 75 percent luxury tax on the overage’.
      So at 4% over, there is no enforced luxury tax?

      1. Penalty Tax is paid on any amount over the allotted bonuses. Up to 5% over is penalty of 75% – over 5% is 75% plus 1st pick next year. Safe to say no team will go more than 5% of their allotted bonus pool.

        1. Exactly. You get taxed at 1%. There just is no significant penalty (loss of pick) until you hit 5%.

      1. gotta trust the team to make the right pick. Nobody was in on C here last year and now are happy so you never know

  23. Groome and the Phillies are just playing chicken with each other. My guess is Groome at 1.1 with #2 money.

  24. Can never have too much pitching – the org. is not quite as pitching-rich as thought earlier this year. Puk can step up quickly like Nola did and make his big league debut later in ’17.

      1. I like that they took the best HS hitter in the country . That opportunity doesn’t come along often.

  25. Weeks, months of debating down to this moment. Can’t wait to see who the Phillies take!

    1. Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 60 | Arm: 50 | Field: 60 | Overall: 55
      At the start of the summer, Moniak was thought of as a decent high school prospect from Southern California. By the time the showcase circuit was over, the outfielder had emerged as one of the best high school bats in the nation. He cemented that reputation by continuing to rake all spring.

      While Blake Rutherford was thought as the top SoCal high school outfielder, there are now scouts who feel Moniak has caught up, if not passed, him. That’s largely because of Moniak’s hit tool and his ability to stay in center field long-term. Moniak makes consistent hard contact against high levels of competition. He has a good approach at the plate and can spray line drives to all fields. Moniak has more doubles power now, but there’s room in his frame to add strength. His above-average speed works on both sides of the ball, and some see a future Gold Glove caliber center fielder. Moniak gets high marks for his baseball instincts and effort.

      The UCLA commit has shown an ability to slow the game down as the competition improves. That should bode well for him at the next level and it would shock few if he ended up being the first high school hitter taken in the first round.

  26. These next few picks can be real important to us. Hoping someone of high quality slips.

    1. They must have got a good deal on him. That means they’ll spend big on their comp round pick.

    1. It’s just a 600 mile drive west on I-70 from Riley Pint’s hometown of Overland Park, Kansas to Denver. Rockies need power arms in that ballpark so this was a good pick.

  27. cincy and atlanta are gonna take the best ‘falling’ pitchers before #42. we’ll still get someone good i think. but they will raid the cookie jar first. it’s never bad to have the 1st pick, but this is one of the ‘least best’ years i think. very happy w/ Moniack, but the compensation and ‘balance’ rounds are really gonna hurt us. but who knows. we won’t really know until 2021.

  28. If only Harry were alive to someday say Mickey Moniak. Hopefully there is a way the Phils can get Groome at 42 but not looking good. But they have the money if he gets there.

  29. I think Groome goes to JC and gets new representation that will work to rebuild his value.

  30. I expect MM to go to GC- let him have some success and then in mid-July send him to WP. if all goes well No reason to be bold and possibly stunt his growth with early failure. It’s different with college kids who have experience against higher level competition.

    1. it will be interested how much BOS is paying him to sign. I think Groome will not sign and go to JuCo unless the signing bonus is north of $4M.

      1. No where near as high as it is for a top 3 pick, where he would’ve been had he not self immolated over the previous months.

  31. Guess who Groome’s favorite baseball team is The Boston RED SOX . CONGRATS to him going to a loaded farm sys , his price tag isn’t that high for a player who’s family is supposed to be money hungry.

  32. Lowe goes to HS right by my house (Marietta, GA). I saw him play one game. He’s a big kid. He didn’t do much that day.

    1. I must be right down the road from you. Milton here.

      I saw him play once as well. Hit opposite field hit about 350. Quick around bases.

  33. Has anyone heard from Eric? With Groome submarining his value over the past few weeks and dropping all the way to the Sux, he can’t be in a good mood.

  34. Funny – Benson’s HS, the private Westminster School, is also near me! This area of GA is has a strong history of pretty good players. Heyward, Wheeler, Francor, McCann, Byrd, and many others.

    1. his high school team, Plum won in the state quarters today. Will play local Marple Newtown on monday for a trip to the state finals.

      1. I think they’ll opt for a pitcher, splitting the first two picks between hitting and pitching.

  35. Atlanta’s strategy may backfire. There is no top signs left except Delvin Perez and Joey Wentz.

      1. Yeah, I’m not sure I like this…’rewarding’ a kid taking PED’s at 17 years old? Now he’s a millionaire? Doesn’t seem right to me.

        1. I’m with you. Not sure what the substance was but it certainly shows that teams will overlook much if you have talent

            1. Aside from the ethics of the situation, its a question of how much of his development at age 17 is sustainable once he’s regularly tested. Don’t be surprised to see his name pop-up for future suspensions

  36. Some of the Players I like are still not taken yet this a funny draft . Deep in hs pitching I think every one will go for them later.

    1. Baseball America has him as #108. Appears to be a reach. The real first one of the draft.

    1. If we want to look at RHP, Alec Hansen and Kyle Funkhouser are still out there. Hansen was a top prospect earlier this year. Funkhouser was drafted last year but didn’t sign.

  37. lots of big names are still on the board with 9 picks to go. We should get a damn good prospect at 42.

  38. Wow some really interesting prospects still around for #42, Gowdy and Wentz HS P. Nolan Jones a local kid SS/3b. UF Logan Shore and UGA Robert Tyler P.

  39. Dylan Carlson to the Cards. He is a stud, switch hitting OF/1B. Was hoping the Phillies might take him in the second or third round.

  40. I really think Joey Wentz will be available at 42. If so, that’d be my pick. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the Phils took Gowdy or someone else instead

    1. Yup. I was just telling my son. I think the Cardinals are like the San Antonio Spurs. They just always seems to get quality players late in drafts (and they know how to develop them).

  41. John Manuel thinks the Phillies may have something in place with Nolan Jones. Sounds good to me.

    1. I think that was pure speculation by Manuel; don’t think he had any real info connecting Nolan Jones and the Phillies. Would not be a bad selection though.

      Also think a pitcher is more likely for the Phillies’ next pick. Wenz and Gowdy are still on the board with three more picks to the Phillies at #42, including the Braves are #40.

    1. Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50
      With his combination of projectability and pitchability, Gowdy appeared to be the top high school pitching option in California this Draft season. Some lackluster performances, along with some others breaking out, have made that more of a race, though he is still well regarded.

      The Santa Barbara native has the chance to have three at least above-average pitches in his arsenal. When he’s firing on all cylinders, Gowdy’s fastball will sit in the 90-93 mph range, and with his frame, it’s easy to dream about increased velocity. His breaking ball can be an out pitch with good bite, one that should develop into a true slider in time. Gowdy has a better feel for a changeup than many high school pitchers, and he has shown advanced command for his age. He typically has a free and easy delivery that he repeats well.

      If Gowdy’s stock falters, signability — and his commitment to UCLA — could come into play. But there’s still a good chance a team early on will roll the dice on his upside and current feel for pitching.

  42. Wonder how far in the black the Phillies are with their slot money after these first two picks ?

    1. polished high school pitcher with excellent command, work ethic, and 3 above average pitches…? what’s not to like!

      have a feeling this signing may be overslot though.

    1. I suspect Gowdy’s polish and projection were big factors. Gowdy obviously isn’t the physical specimen that Muller is.

    1. From BA

      Another UCLA commit (along with SoCal preps such as Mickey Moniak and Blake Rutherford), Gowdy has a projectable, young pitcher’s body at 6-foot-2, 170 pounds. He’s been well schooled with considerable polish, combining athleticism and working with Cubs scout Tom Myers as a pitching coach since he was nine. The Cubs don’t pick until the third round, and there’s no shot Gowdy will last that long. An alum of USA Baseball’s 18U team last summer as well as the Area Code Games, Gowdy has had some velocity fluctuations this spring, at times sitting in the upper 80s. At his best, he’s sat 92-93 mph and touched 94-95, and he commands it and makes adjustments with it, showing a high baseball IQ. He calls his breaking ball a curveball, and at times it’s another plus pitch, with east-west action that prompts some to classify it as a slider. His clean arm action and low-maintenance delivery are more plusses for Gowdy, who also shows a feel for using his at least solid-average changeup. He could go out as high as the second round.

  43. Prediction: with their 3rd round pick, the Phillies will pick either Logan Ice or Jeff Belge.

  44. I think the Phillies need to send the UCLA athletic department a fruit basket or something. They absolutely decimated their recruiting class.

    1. True, but these college coaches know that their really top recruits will likely take the money and turn pro. All part of the territory for the top college programs.

  45. Will the Braves really save that much money on Anderson or will the other 2 sign for less than $2 million?

    1. You would think they’ve already had the conversations with the player’s reps, right?

    2. I wouldn’t be surprised if Anderson signs for $2M to $2.5M under slot. That would enable the Braves to throw at least $2.5M at both Wenz and Muller.

      I know these guys are all in high school but, man, that’s some serious pitching talent they’ve amassed in this draft.

  46. Love the Gowdy pick. Seems to be a real pitcher vs. a thrower who they hope can figure it out.

  47. Never heard of Gowdy before but if I like pitchers who have command over velocity. There are tons of kids who throw 97 but can’t throw strikes. That’s why I didn’t want Puk. In him I see Philipe Aumont (probably not that bad) all over again. Give me kids who work hard and know how to play over the tool sheds any day. Looking forward to tomorrow’s picks and then the signing period. This is fun!!!

  48. i guess its crazy to think they could have Moniak and Gowdy agreed to a combined 10 million, then have something set up with Nolan Jones for 2 million at next pick? just seems like Jones should have been picked by now and would he give up Virginia for the million dollar slots we are at now?

  49. Phillies added two young very athletic players. I think both have significant projectability. So far comparisons I have heard for Moniak (if everything breaks right) is Steve Finley.

  50. Phillies have already drafted more high school players this year than they did in the first 28 rounds of the 2014 draft

  51. JB Woodman … another of my favorites. I think the Nationals may have taken him with the next pick.

  52. IMO, they wouldn’t have drafted Gowdy without agreeing on a contract. The guy should & will add 20-30 lbs to his frame while moving through the minors. That would likely add 3-4-5 MPH to his FB. In that he seems to have excellent command for a HSer, he resembles the philosophy in picking Nola who also had/has superior command and work ethic.

    It’ll take 3-4 yrs for each of these draft picks to reach MLB…optimistically. Both seem excellent choices that will command our attention during their climb.

    P.S. When will “C” return to playing?

    1. It’s almost certain that Gowdy and the Phillies agreed to a number in advance. That’s almost always how it works for the over slot guys.

    1. Sounding like a broken record but this is another Cobb County player. This guy dominated within our HS region. Really big HS with great athletic programs.

      1. I went to a pope game 2 months ago. There were 30 or so scouts there. Some were there for Lowe, but most were there for anither pitcher – I cannot recall his name right now. He sat low 90’s, hit 97 according to my son (who was sitting within site of numerous radar guns).

      1. I like Mendoza the most, Luzardo fits the “Command” pitcher that Alamaraz wants. Funkhouser can be signed underslot.

  53. Pitchers Belge , Mendoza is a Boras client, Laskey from Audubon or maybe Joey Rose 3rd baseman from Tom’s River .

  54. Well the Boston Red Sox got their self a hell of a pitcher today past pick 10 . . . I’ve spoken to Groome on several occasions and he was always a nice humble kid . . . But hey these guys get paid to actually dig into their lives. Still surprised he dropped so far . . . I don’t think he’s going to sign tho 😉 (You can read into that if you’d like)

    1. Would make sense for him not to after sabotaging his value and any shot of being selected in the top-5 this year. Better to go back to the draft next year for a stronger class and get selected even lower. Solid thinking on his part.

  55. Mickey Mo said he wanted to sign ASAP he also gave his verbal ok before the draft . Kevin Gowdy I hope he’s on board too. Matt k did say that’s he’s very positive they can sign both. Also seems like last yr Hs hitter with the best hit tool, Hs pitcher with great control ie C, Falter. So much better then loud toolsy players.

  56. Round 3 (78th overall), Cole Stobbe, SS-3B, Millard West HS (Omaha, Neb.)
    MLB Pipeline had Stobbe at No. 47 on its Draft board, which could mean the Phillies got a good value with their third-round pick says mlb.com

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