2016 Draft Discussion, June 6th

The 2016 draft discussion continues here.  These discussions will be accessible under “The Draft” menu option “2016 Draft Discussions and Picks” for reference.

The First Year Player Draft (Rule 4 Draft) will begin on Thursday, June 9th.  I will provide Daily discussion pages for comments similar to last year.  I will also consolidate information on the Phillies’ selections in a draft tracker spread sheet just like last year.  In addition to player info, it will contain bonus information and signing dates.

I will update  as the information is released, leaked, or otherwise becomes available.  If you uncover any signing information, share it and I’ll update the tracker.

BA updated their Top 100 Draft Prospects on May 5th. The top ten were –

  • #1 – A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida
  • #2 – Riley Pint, RHP, St. Thomas Aquinas HS, KA
  • #3 – Jason Groome, LHP, Barnegat HS, NJ
  • #4 – Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer
  • #5 – Nick Senzel, 3B, Tennessee
  • #6 – Corey Ray, OF, Louisville
  • #7 – Delvin Perez, SS, International Baseball Academy, Ceiba, P.R.
  • #8 – Mickey Moniak, OF, La Costa Canyon HS, Carlsbad, CA
  • #9 – Braxton Garrett, LHP, Florence (Ala.) HS
  • #10 – Blake Rutherford, OF, Chaminade College Prep HS, Canoga Park, CA

As we approach Draft Day, this is your last chance to express your opinion on whom the Phillies should select with their first pick.  The next draft discussion will come out after the Phillies have made their choice.

Back in March, I took part in a preseason survey of people who write about the Phillies, write about Phillies’ prospects, see Phillies’ prospects, or you write about baseball nationally.  One of the questions was –

Who do the Phillies take with the #1 pick in the draft?

This was my answer.  “Best player available. I believe they have already made up their collective minds and that only an injury to or an implosion by that player will change their minds. I believe it will be a pitcher. I believe that they don’t care about the college v. HS debate as much as others. But, I believe their experience of having once drafted a local HS pitcher with a high pick may influence them a little. All that to say A.J. Puk.”

Now, with the draft upon us, I still feel the same way.  I might prefer seeing them go in a different direction, but I’m confident, they will make a good choice.  Their recent track record would support such confidence in the organization – Crawford in 2013, Nola in 2014, and Randolph in 2015.

 

330 thoughts on “2016 Draft Discussion, June 6th

  1. Puk. We’re gonna need a lefty, and we also need a pitcher with a “1” ceiling. He’ll be here sooner than any of the other guys in discussion as well.

    1. Everyone should set proper expectations on Puk. He will NOT be a fast riser. Fastball command is critical to being a major league pitcher. Without it everything else is irrelevant. If they take him it is because they believe that they can change his motion to improve his command, which hasn’t improved in 3 college seasons and remains unacceptablely poor.

      I believe drafting a pitcher whom you have to materially change his mechanics is a recipe for disaster. I hate the idea of taking Puk. Hate it.

      I would gamble on a HS kid. I don’t see the argument that they are more risky than a pitcher with back issues and poor command.

      1. Agree with everything you wrote here, particularly the last two paragraphs. Plus, I suspect Puk’s ultimate destination will be the bull pen.

        With that in mind, I rather go with a high school player with a good hit tool and a plus glove at a premium defensive position (i.e., Moniak).

        We haven’t talked that much about Nick Senzel, who might be the “safest” bat in the draft. He could be an option as well.

      2. So right at this time and what we know or saw , 5.5 mil at 1.1 then hope 1 or 2 fall to 2.1 which has been the case before. Moniak, Rutherford , I like the most other then Groome .

      3. V1again: Agree 100%. IMO, Puk will be a disaster as a #1 pick…or later. Too many “ifs” and “depends” concerning work to be done in development. IMO, he is a very risky pick…that we would rue for many years. Go hitter…some of them have a greater potential to be better than average MLB players…and possibly way better than average guy. Do not see Puk with that kind of potential.

    2. Don’t draft for need at 1:1; rather, take the best player available. And, IMHO, the best player available is not Puk.

    3. In their draft podcasts, BA has Puk’s ceiling as a 2/3 starter. I don’t think a 1 is in the cards. Although, I would love to be pleasantly surprised.

      1. wasn’t it last year that Almaraz said that when drafting at the top of the draft you don’t take a pitcher unless he’s potentially a 1? Hard to see them going 1.1 for a guy that might only be a 2/3

  2. AJ Puk has been the guy for a while now. I feel 78% sure they are going to select Puk. If not Puk, I think they will select Lewis. We are only a couple days away….so we shall say.

    Whoever they pick, as stated above, I feel confident in this scouting dept right now after Crawford, Nola, Randolph…

    1. Nola and Crawford were selected by a different Scouting Director and GM. Randolph by a different GM. This FO has not proven themselves yet. Although I do love the Giles trade.

      1. “I feel confident in this scouting dept right now ”

        the GM’s are irrelevant in this discussions because I didn’t mention them, and they have minimal impact on the draft outside of the first pick in most cases. I promise you that ruben amaro never saw Tyler Viza or Mark Leiter Jr. pitch before they were in the Phillies organization.

        Again, “I feel confident in this scouting dept right now” because they drafted Craword, Nola, and Randolph. Yes, the scouting director changed between Nola and Randolph, but the scouting department as a whole is intact. The fact remains they have seemingly nailed three straight 1st round picks, so yes I feel confident in the scouting department

        1. The GM is involved with the 1st round pick. The rest of the draft, not so much. There is too much money involved and jobs on the line, based on the decision, to think the GM doesn’t have a say in who the 1st round pick will be.

          1. Agreed. Which is why I said this in my above post haha:

            “the GM’s are irrelevant in this discussions because I didn’t mention them, and they have minimal impact on the draft outside of the first pick in most cases. “

  3. I believe it will be Puk despite how intriguing Groome is. Moniak and Senzel also interest me as hitters

  4. The mystery guy is Pint for me. I know LSU is his dream school and will be tough to prey loose from but everything I read is that he will be drafted in top 5-7. Not much discussion here about Phillies taking him. Rightfully so considering his situation. (Not saying Phillies take him just saying he is the mystery man).

    I have been on Puk almost since Day 1 but he has finally worn me down. I’m off his bandwagon as much as the Phils need a LHP who could be a #1 or #2 in the rotation. My pick now is Moniak. MLB channel did a small profile (showed him stealing 2nd base STANDING UP.). He could be a 20 HR a year guy and a doubles machine.

    1. Ditto…..first with Puk since winter games, but now disillusioned with his control and inconsistency…Moniak and hopefully a substantial underslot signing..

      1. Me, too on Puk.

        Moniak as the best all-around position talent available.

        Lewis if the Phillies scouts really think he can rake against tougher pitching than he’s routinely faced.

  5. Yes m8 I was all puk. But after his last start. I would only draft him. if he signs cheap. which isn’t happing. So now its moniak or even Senzel.. Senzel can hit but he lacks power from some of the reports I read. Scouts Say he has average speed but good base running instincts. Defense is the problem. The power might come if he can make some adjustments in his swing. So in some ways he might be the surest kid to at least make it to the majors.

      1. Romus, the Philiies could move Mikeal Franco to first and then draft Senzel to play third eventually.

  6. In order of preference:

    1. Jason Groome
    2. Kyle Lewis (Mercer or not, 1.266 OPS and 66/48 BB/K is impressive)
    3. Mickey Moniak (for a savings to go big with the second pick
    4. A.J. Puk

    1. arlier today we profiled Mercer University outfielder Kyle Lewis, who followed up his impressive 2015 Cape Cod League run with an excellent 2016 spring season and is a lock for the first round. As good as Lewis was last summer for the Orleans Firebirds, Nick Senzel was even better with the Brewster Whitecaps, hitting .364/.418/.558 and winning the league MVP award. He’s remained very hot for the University of Tennessee this spring and is a certain early first round pick heading into the last five weeks of draft

      1. Bobby Dalbec of Arizona actually had better numbers than Kyle Lewis on Orleans but he had a bad year back at school while Lewis thrived.
        With Senzel, if the Phils are confident in his ability to play third professional, could certainly argue for him at 1. Id be hesitant if destined for left like C.

        1. That’s the problem if I am reading it right Raef. he really doesn’t have a solid positon. But he can hit. I never saw him so I am only going off what I read and stats. I am trying in a way to figure out what I would do if I was picking. I know it really scares me to pick lewis who hasn’t faced the kind of pitching. others have.

  7. Mike my point is lewis might in later years be better. But right now against better competition Senzel is the better and surer hitter.

    1. I could see them going with Lewis, but not Senzel. Not enough of a splash for the first pick in the draft. It’s probably down to Puk, Moniak and Lewis.

  8. I am not the guy to chose who the Phillies take #1. There is no clear cut #1 and I’ve read and heard 5 names the most. I’d put the names on a dart board, blindfold myself and pick whoever. In fact, I’d get a spinning dart board so the choice would be as random as you can get. Each of the guys has warts and each has upside. Money could be a deciding factor, if you don’t want the spinning dart board. Which of the 5 guys will take a reasonable amount of money. I’m not for taking a guy because he’ll take less money, if his upside is not equal to the others on the short list.

    I want to go on record as saying, “Why, when we pick 1st, is there no moonshot in the group?”

    1. ugh, in like every Philly sport. James Van Riemsdyke, Evan Turner, Jahlil Okafor . . .

  9. I was on Moniak but then I went back to Puk because it’s so hard to find a big lefty who throws 97. However, after Puk’s latest start, another dud, I just can’t get excited about him. The college hitters look good but not great so I think I’ve come full circle back to Moniak who looks like a legit bat with lots of doubles and maybe more when he fills out. Get him a little cheap and then get a good high school arm at 2/1.

  10. Upper 90’s fastballs are sexy but when you watch Nola yesterday you get a pretty good sense of what it takes to pitch successfully in the MLB.

    1. Granted he isn’t high velo. Has great movement on his fastball. But not many right handers can get away with low velo like 90.7 average. I was never big on him. but he is turning me around. But to come on here and say after something like a 11-6 record in little over a season. That he is hamels is nuts. I just think if you draft right-handers with his velo. You will get burned more than you find a stud. The difference is his movement

        1. Chad my point is he hasn’t play long enough. That someone can say he is Cole Hamels. I read a lot about guys who lose velo. Look at Lincecum he lost velo and his era when up. No you cant judge on record. especially for a team like the Phillies who cant score runs. But era and stikeouts. Right now nola is better than last year. but so was Lincecum. for 4 years. When he lost velo. his era went up. on a good team he is a 500 pitcher with era that’s over 4. So I hope as a Phillies fan I am wrong. but if he keeps on losing velo. He wont be a top of rotation guy. like people believe he is right now.

        2. No, a starting pitcher’s job is to keep his team in the game. Ws and Ls are largely based on happenstance unless the starter is lights out with sufficient run support.

          Funny how the most popular stats we followed as kids have little significance in telling a player’s real value. Even a hitter’s high RBI totals are dependent on his team mate’s OBP.

      1. Nola knows how to pitch even at his age. That’s what should separate him in the long run. He’ll give up his share of taters because he occasionally misses his spots. But he knows what he’s doing where other harder “hurlers” don’t know much beyond their mechanics.

  11. I am DREADING the Phils taking Puk, and then just wait until the Philly sports media finds out that the #1 overall pick won just 1 game all season. People get hard ons for pitchers with that size who can throw that hard, but if they cant control it they are worthless. Randy Johnson is the outlier. How soon we forget Phillippe Aumont.

      1. v1again you paint yourself as an intelligent guy with your posts, a forward thinker, and even a believer in advanced number use and theory in baseball.

        But you’re really dumbing yourself down to the masses with these last two tweets you posted.

        It’s Ok if you don’t want Puk as the selection. I understand all of the negatives associated with him and can see why you wouldn’t pick him. I see both sides and happen to think his positives outweigh his negatives in comparison to the other top choices, with kyle lewis virtually neck and neck with him.

        But let me ask you two questions point blank, because those tweets you posted seemingly go against everything you usually post on here. Please just a yes or no response to each question. I already know that you will not be able to just say yes or no but lets try it;

        1. Do you think a pitchers won/loss is a good stat to judge a pitcher on?

        2. If Puk threw 7 inning shutout innings this weekend with 11 K and 0 BB would you be posting today that he changed your mind and you now want him as the 1:1?

        1. We all know pitching wins is a misleading statistic, but it absolutely is telling that a guy on a 48 win team has 2 wins. It shows that hes not going deep into games and it shows that he has a competent team around him so its not like hes going 8 innings of 1 run ball every time out and getting a ND.

          1. I know who John Manuel is, I know how to analyze statistics, and I have my own thoughts and opinions on Puk’s numbers and stats, and durability and all that, and who knows, they may even agree with yours.

            However, these were YES/NO questions specifically for v1again and I’m sure he doesn’t need everyone else’s help answering them.

            I’m curious on v1again’s YES/NO answers to my questions, that is all.

            I’d also like to hear his thoughts on not scouting the stat line, his thoughts on actually putting an eye on players, and how many times he believes a person needs to see a pitcher before he can begin to put a rating on him and make future projections.

            He seems like an intelligent guy and I’m curious on his opinion.

            1. “Dont scout the stat line” means just because a guy has good stats (cough, cough Ben Lively) doesn’t mean his skills are projectable to higher levels. But there are certainly peripheral stats that are major red flags and walk rate is one of them. Inability to average more than 5 ip per game is another. HR rate is another. A low K rate (not Puk’s issue) is another. These are statistical flags that need to be explained by scouting report.

              In Puk’s case, the scouting reports match the statistical flags. He has poor command. It is that simple.

        2. The tweets are from the editor-in-chief of Baseball America, the most respected college baseball/prospect publication around. He’s voicing legit concerns about Puk’s ability to get through a lineup multiple times. That’s not relevant?

            1. No wins don’t mean much but if you are being talked about as the top pick and on one of the best teams in the country you’d think you’d accidentally win 2 games, esp at the college level. Out of their 13 loses 8 of them have been games Puk has started which is interesting.

              I’m still hoping for a losing battle and hoping they will take Groome. Can someone give me a negative on groome besides his age . . .

      2. Moniak at $5-$5.2 million, then offer same or a shade under for Braxton Garrett in the 2nd (barring he’s around, which I doubt.)

  12. If the Phils do the prep work that is necessary, I think that, with pick No. 42, they can pick up a prospect who is ranked between No. 7 and No. 12 on their board.

  13. The Puk thing is unlike anything I have ever seen. I have never seen a guy who scouts all insist is the clear cut number 1 guy but every fan, and I mean smart fans not the yahoo WIP callers, see all the warning signs.

    There was a podcast last week, John Stolnis from the good phight, where he talked to Baseball America’s John Manuel and it was really interesting. Manuel seems very set on calling Puk a clear cut number 1 and a potential ace. Apparenly that is how scouts see him. But my question is why? Because he is tall and left handed? Hes not athletic despite being tall and he cant throw strikes. I am scared sh**less of him and think he has huge bust potential.

    He also went in depth about how Groome is a character concern. This is also something I am hesitant to buy into. Scouts seem to have determined that Groome’s attitude is that the draft is the end game to him, that he just wants his pay day and isnt thinking about the big picture. I think that a kid who is 18 years old has every right to be pumped as heck about the pay day hes about to receive. Maunel did say that there are stories that scouts said they will tell him after the draft. Sometimes in these cases, where there is smoke there is fire. And sometimes its just a kid being a kid. I believe Hamels had “character concerns” awhile back too and he ended up being a model citizen.

    To a guy like me who reads a lot, watches youtube a lot and really cares but is not a professional scout, Groome seems like the guy who is going to be a stud and if they pass on him (which they 100% will at this point) it is going to come back and hurt them. I just can’t see what the scouts do in Puk. I will admit though, I was against them drafting Nola and thought he was Mike Leak Jr, so yeah, maybe I should just let the pros do their job. But I just have a bad feeling about this.

    1. I think I can focus right on in the issue of why you can’t understand what is going on with Puk and Groome and it will be in your own words:

      “To a guy like me who reads a lot, watches youtube a lot and really cares but is not a professional scout”

      I’m honestly not trying to be a jerk here. But you are just seeing what you want to see and hearing what you want to hear regarding Puk and Groome. You said it yourself that most scouts (men who are paid money to evaluate baseball players by, you know, actually going to watch them play and speaking with them) like Puk as the clear cut #1 guy and those same scouts (who, you know, interact with Groome and his family and talk to his coaches) have many character concerns about Groome.

      But after saying that these scouts (who, wyou know, are paid money to evaluate players by WATCHING them many times and speaking to them and their families, and their coaches) love Puk and do not like Groome as much, you say “but I think they’re wrong” because “I read a lot, watch youtube a lot and really care but I’m not a professional scout”.

      If this was the NFL or NBA draft then I could swallow all of our opinions as being more informed, but the fact is we are all throwing darts at a moving target and to take the analogy even further, none of us can even see the dartboard because we haven’t had the time to see these players enough to evaluate them.

      Really the best we can do is go off of others opinions and try our best to weigh the potential risk/reward (as determined by scouts and writers, and hope they are right) of each individual player.

      Having said that, I still think Phillies select Puk, and I would select him, with Lewis being a close second…

      1. Scouts consistently say Puk struggles with command and has had poor performance this season. I am not making that up by watching YouTube.

        When a pitcher has poor command, he needs to make mechanical changes to improve it. Also, not an unsupported statement.

        These facts are what I am basing my opinion on.

        1. Agreed thats what scouts say. A lot of scouts also say he is still the #1 pick. We are not privy to why they think that. Maybe they think he’s easily fixable. Maybe they think its not so easy, but still thinks hes worth the shot because of all his other tools. Maybe they are wrong (like someone else said). Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe you’re wrong.

          But I 100% guarantee you (and I) have about 5% of the info the scouts have on Puk (or any player).

          1. agreed. i am just a fan forming an opinion based on what I read and pattern recognition from my experience watching prospects. i could be 100% wrong and Puk might turn out to be the greatest pitcher of all time. but at this point, based on what i have read, I would not pick him.

      2. Yes but what I am saying is that I disagree with teh scouts. Just because they get paid to do it doesnt mean they are right. Scouts told the Raiders to draft jamarcus russell and they were wrong and 90% of football fans knew they would be wrong. Sometimes there are weird situations like this.

        I am not saying Groome is a choir boy, but unless he is violent or has a drinking problem, I am not worrying about some of the things the scouts seem to care about. I don’t care that this kid seems pretty amped to get a big bonus and be set for life. Just because he doesnt have an “aw shucks, im just happy to be a pro and cant wait to help a ML team” attitude, doesnt make him a bad guy. Harper is the cockiest dude in baseball it seems like, and nobody cares except old heads, same reason teh older scouts probably don’t like Groome’s attitude.

        But really the thing that bothers me the most is Puk. I dont care what level of scout these guys are, there is nothing they could possibly see that is so different than what we see. The guy barely can get through 5 innings. If you want to spin that as a good thing that his arm hasnt been wasted, fine i can buy that, but his command is terrible and hes not really athletic. This is not a 1-1 guy, and i hope i have to eat these words if the phillies take him, but i dont even really see how hes gonna be all that good at all. I get it, most lefties thrown 92-93, and he throws 97. Doesnt mean a thing if he has no idea where the ball is going.

        One guy in the last 30 years, Randy Johnson, suddenly learned how to control his power fastball. I’m not willing to bet Puk is number 2. Best case scenario to me is Andrew Miller. Worst case is Scott Ruffcorn.

      3. Not a compelling argument, if I understand you right, that our posts should merely endorse the consensus of scouts. 1) there would be no need for such a site, 2) the nature of baseball indicates that scouts often get things wrong and 3) scouts themselves do not have unanimity of views in this draft and there is support in the scouting community, as reported, for a number of potential #1s.

      4. mmm where are you seeing that he’s clear cut number 1 . . . i’ve NEVER seen that, matter of fact one of the head writers of BA just listed his top players and Groome was above Puk at 1.

    2. I really don’t understand it either, Dan. With increased prevalence and dependence on analytics, they should be shying away from a 1.1 pick with control issues, not converging on him.

      It’s possible that the top teams are leaking false information about being in on Puk to make the other prospects more willing to accept less, and that information is cascading down influencing the entire profession.

      It’s also possible that these scouts know a lot more than we do, and fixing him would be easy.

      Thirdly, maybe we’re right and they’re all wrong. We will know soon enough.

      1. Guys,

        This is a great debate, especially the posts from tommy gunn and v1. Informative. Entertaining. Well written.

        Now, onto my point:

        I fall into the fan, not a scout, category for sure.

        But scouts, and/or consensus of scouts, are not infallible. Witness Dom Brown. Philippe Aumont. Mark Appel.

    3. I understand some of the hesitancy of scouts and writers to jump off the Puk bandwagon. Just two gears ago it burnt them with Carlos Rondon. They don’t want to look silly ranking another Tyler Kolek or Alex Jackson ahead of the guy who’s tools made him look like #1, but results made him look like a bust waiting to happen.
      Personally, I don’t think they have to worry, but the again, I’m not a scout.

  14. Manuel thinks that Puk’s floor is a reliever and his ceiling is No. 3. If accurate, his floor is not enough for him to be considered a safe pick, and his ceiling is lower than several other picks. I pass on Puk.

    My first pick would be among Perez, Moniak, Lewis and Ray.

    If they want pitching, they should be able to get a top arm at No. 42.

    1. I am assuming, and hope, that if the Phillies have the same floor/ceiling rating on Puk that they wouldn’t draft him 1:1 either.

      If they do draft him I assume they think he has top of rotation potential.

      Perez is really interesting to me and has been for awhile, especially since you would probably get a pretty nice discount on his bonus, but he seems to never be mentioned with the Phillies as the 1:1

      1. At one time (a few weeks ago) I thought Perez could be a dark horse candidate for 1:1, simply because he was highly rated and absolutely no one had him connected to the Phillies. However, reports I’ve seen since then indicate that Perez is very raw and has some real questions with the bat, plus maybe some maturity issues (big surprise for a 17 or 18 year old kid, right?).

        Anyway, there continues to be zero info connecting Perez to the Phillies, so he does not appear to be a guy the Phillies are considering, unless they are running a very effective disinformation campaign.

    2. One of the following HS LHPs…Kyle Muller, Joey Wentz or Jesus Luzardo (coming off TJ) could easily be had at the 42nd.

        1. There are some rumors of him falling due to sign-ability concerns but that’s a hard thing to predict because we don’t know what he has told teams.

  15. for 1.1 the Phils should pick any top hitter that will sign no more than $6M. I’m ok with Groome as long as he also agree to $6M. I agree with some, let Cincy take the risk on Puk!

    1. Ding … Ding … Ding !!! We’ve got a winner. I agree with almost all of Kurt’s post, except for the fact that you limit this to hitters at 1.1.
      IMO, the Phillies should look at the draft in it’s entirety. Don’t focus only on the 1.1 pick because there is really no sure thing at the top of the draft. This is a deep draft. I’d go quantity over quality. Devise a plan to draft as many top 100 – 125 players as they can. Who is willing to go most under-slot at 1.1 ? How can I spread that money around to over pay guys in rounds 2 – 7 ? Most of you think I’m nuts if I mention Cal Quantrill or Zack Collins with the first pick. If either of those two players would sign for 1.7 money (3.7 million dollars), I’d draft them. These guys are both very good players.

      1. I agree 100% with this. The strength of this draft is not at the top but in the middle rounds. I would have no issues with the Phil’s taking a guy they could sign at $4 mil or less and really spreading that money around. The only sure way to do this would be to make it a quick signing and lock in the excess money so you have to pick a guy that is completely trustworthy and won’t play games on the signing.

      2. Hinkie – you’re correct, my post only pertains to 1.1. But i also posted in the previous thread that my preferred strategy is to sign Groome or any top bats @ 1.1 for no more than $6M and use the savings @ 2.1 to sign any top talents that will fall – my preference is Pint is he falls beyon #8, or rutherford or even Groome. Use approx $10-11M for the 1st picks, sign college propsects underslot to add to the savings and utilize the 5% excess cap.

        if the Phils can get 2 any combo of top arms and bat for the 1st 2 rds at <$11M, that's a good draft.

        other than the top talents, I like Alamaraz's philosophy of prioritizing hit (batters) and command (pitcher) tools.

        with the bigger $$ and better draft position, the 2016 draft will be better than last year which i think is a solid draft.

  16. I want them to take Moniak. Although, we all need to be honest, and admit that the Phillies know so much more about all these guys than we do. It seems like Moniak is a faster and CF version of JP Crawford. 70 hit tool, great plate discipline, smooth fielder, good makeup. 15 HR power potential because of high hit tool.

    I’ll take Crawford in CF and SS for the future.

    1. And Moniak is one of the youngest in this draft class…which according to analytics is a plus in his favor.

  17. Salisbury ‏@JSalisburyCSN ·

    Potential No. 1 pick Kyle Lewis in Philly today, working out for Phillies

    1. I would not be disappointed in Lewis. Easy power to all fields. I think he has a decent floor and an all-star ceiling. Plus I don’t see him as a tough sign which affords a really nice shot at a good arm at 42.

      1. me either. He’s one of two guys in the draft that would excite me, along with Puk. Not saying the other guys don’t excite me but Puk and Lewis seem to have biggest upsides in draft to me, even if you have to look a little harder to see it and take a little more risk that they don’t reach that upside as surely as Corey Ray or Nick Senzel might. Moniak and Groome and Rutherford and other high school guys are total crapshoots in my opinion. Not that you shouldn’t draft a high school high but projecting someone 4-5 years down the road seems less appealing to me this high in the draft unless we are talking about a josh Hamilton, Bryce harper, josh beckett type high school prospect

        1. That’s the things with Groome even with out projection he has 2 pitches that are plus and a chance up that’s average with solid control and command . . That is right now not later.

    1. This actually sums up the fears of taking HS pitchers perfectly … the first two HS arms are RHP J.M. Gold and LHP C.C. Sabathia. The floor-to-ceiling ratio for HS pitchers can be as tall as a skyscraper …

      1. Fun fact I played against J.M. Gold in high school. Went 1-3 against him with a single between the SS and 3B. We scored a few runs off him but lost 4-2 I believe. Don’t remember final score exactly since it was 1997 but I’m pretty sure it was 4-2.

        In the buildup to the game there was reports he threw 92-94 mph but if I remember correctly it was pretty straight. I followed him a little bit after that (through Baseabll America —the actual magazine, not the website) and believe he had an arm injury that ended his career

      2. but really, i dont know if the list of bust picks is skewed towards high school pitchers at all. take a look at top 10 picks for 2007-11 (as more recent can still be works in progress). definitely more college pitchers taken than high school but plenty of college busts; high school hitters about just as good results as college hitters.
        you see the mixed results with college pitchers in 2010- gerrit cole, danny hultzen and trevor bauer going 1-2-3.

  18. The simple explanation may be the correct one. The analysts who have Puk 1.1 do so because of the underwhelming nature of this year’s draft. Puk may be Andrew Miller with a #3 upside and still be 1.1, ans that only shows the opinion of the rest of the top choices. I have always been off Puk, mainly because of the importance of command and control. And, while W/L does not amount to a hill of beans, blowing leads and winning only twice on such a good team should raise serious questions. Perez may be as good a pick as anyone. we can only wait and see and pray they get it right.

  19. My question is how much of what we read and hear about these kids truly comes from scouts on the actual team payrolls themselves. I question the benefit for the Phillies or any other club for that matter to willfully and truthfully put out there which way they are leaning.

    And I wholly believe any info they disseminate would be for the sole purpose of leveraging their own best value.

    Likewise the kids and their agent/advisors are doing the same thing. No?

    1. I think there is a non-zero chance that the Phillies COULD be bringing him in, and then leak it to the press, in an attempt to lower the signing bonus demands of another player that they want to draft.

      How likely – don’t know.. But, plausible..

    2. Lewis working out for the Phillies a few days before the draft is of interest, but I would not consider it particularly significant.

  20. this is from Jeff Ellis on scout.com this morning; maybe he missed his most recent start:
    This pick comes down to two players, Puk and Mickey Moniak. I have heard both linked here heavily. An unlikely plan C would be Jason Groome. I vacillated heavily on this pick, but went with Puk, because I know the man at the top of the Phillies’ draft team is a fan. Puk had one of his best outings of the season in the SEC tournament, which has just helped to put a bow on his year and makes him the likely pick here.

    1. Perhaps having Kyle Lewis in at this point is a smokescreen designed to bring down Puk or Moniak’s asking price.

    2. This is interesting in that it’s the first time I’ve heard that Almaraz (I’m assuming that’s who he means by the man at the top of the Phillies draft plan) is a fan of Puk.

      So far, we’ve heard speculation on here that Almaraz WOULD NOT pick Puk because he valus command so highly.

      1. Almaraz runs the draft, absolutely. But I doubt he has final say over who the Phils select at 1.1.

  21. I really don’t know what to make of Manuel’s comments about Groome and his family being interested in the money. If his family are of modest means, it is normal for them to be excited about a $5 – 6 million signing bonus. If the evaluators think that Groome will use the money to buy a nice house in Barnegat, a sports car or two, and put the rest of it up his nose instead of in the bank, then there’s a problem. Manuel’s comments lead to speculation and are unfair to Groome unless he knows more.

    1. Teams have to know the guy they are drafting especially at the top are trustworthy because so much rides on a successful signing especially if it is underslot. If that player changes their mind or just plays hardball on the signing amount, it screws up the teams draft. I think this is one of the reasons Groome might also be dropping – no faith from the teams that something won’t change with the family after they draft before signing. Character is huge in this game and if there are concerns about character from the player or family, that’s a bigger deal than some may think.

  22. General draft item that makes me ponder: You have 30 teams drafting for 40 rounds –> 1200 picks. At what point in an annual draft do players get picked that many teams say “no clue who that is”. In baseball, you have a huge allotment of players that are technically available to be drafted (HS kids from US, Canada, PR, JUCO, and 4 year college players 3 years removed from high-school). At some point, someone from Idaho is going to be drafted that teams have not heard of. In an average year, I wonder if that is typically in round 6 or 26..

    It would not shock me if Piazza was not one of those “who is that” guys, nor would it shock me if Albert Pujols was one of those guys…

    Imagine if you were a scouting director and saw that Pujols was taken, and thought “no clue who that is”..

          1. @romus – Cozens is probably considered as NFL prospect than MLB prospect that time.

            kidding aside, but i guess the Phils is obssesed with POWER in regardless of hit tool during that time so the Greene in 2011 and Cozens in 2012 didn’t come as a surprise.

    1. “At what point in an annual draft do players get picked that many teams say “no clue who that is” ??? Last year it was at picks 38, 39, and 40 when the Phillies selected the sons of Dave Brundage, Mickey Morandini, and Tom McCarthy ?!#@

    2. Wes,,,Luke Williams went 83rd last year……was he even a BA Top 500 player?
      BA had no clue.:)

      1. While I don’t think one should automatically like a pick because a certain scouting department made it, I do think there is some logic to the idea. It is alright to take a step back and try to consider what the drafting team knows that the general public might not. A few in the business appear to be of the mindset that it is best to form an opinion early and then stick to it no matter what evidence is uncovered along the way. A team drafting a player you ranked 239th (as I ranked Cozens) before the draft with the 77th overall pick doesn’t make anybody right or wrong. It is, however, a data point to be considered when reassessing the player. Ignoring the possibility that you might have misjudged the player initially negates any possibility for growth as an analyst of the sport. What did the Phillies see that I didn’t? What did they know that I didn’t? If after doubling back and re-researching the prospect still leads to the original conclusion on the player, so be it. But to simply dismiss the pick as a massive overdraft is missing an opportunity to do this job better.

          1. No having trouble with my computer. found it here
            Tag Archives: Dylan Cozens

            Philadelphia Phillies 2012 MLB Draft Review

            September 13, 2012 11:00 PM / Leave
            its called the baseball draft report

    3. The Phillies have gone off the board every year recently, in rounds 2-5. Cozens was picked in the 2nd about 5 rounds before projected. Mitch Walding was unranked, but was picked in the 5th and received a 2nd round bonus. Lucas Williams was unranked and went in the 3rd. If I’m not mistaken, Ken Giles was unranked, but picked in the top 7 rounds. The Phillies don’t follow any industry boards in the draft or in the International signing period.

  23. I’m thinking the Phillies draft Lewis as as safer choice who still has a high ceiling. Both Puk and Groome are higher risk without much higher upside..

  24. You know how when you are at a bar or restaurant or any social, a beautiful buxom blonde with D cups will always draw attention from men. They don’t know anything about her, she could be crazy, she could be a mean person, she could have so much baggage, but because shes buxom and blonde, she will always have guys saying that shes worth having. There are even some who would ask her on a date immediately, with the mindset that if she is that hot, anything else can either be fixed or worked around? Thats like how scouts care with lefties who throw 97+. lefthanded and 97mph+ = blond and busty.

      1. I would be fine with taking a flyer on Kate Upton in the 40th round. Chalk the pick up to ‘building team moral’ – I doubt the players would mind..

        She has solid plus plus skills – bordering on elite (80).

    1. An interesting study that I might do if I think of it when I get home is to take all non-#1 HS position picks, find their median WAR, and compare to the college position median.

      The idea being, is the HS position player still a better draft pick, even when not the first pick? Should we take the best available HS position player under most circumstances?

  25. i was watching youtube videos of all of these guys to catch up and one thing that stood out was Kyle Lewis’ bat speed. It is impressive.

  26. If my memory is correct, several months ago the top 3 pitching prospects in the draft were Jason Groome, A.J. Puk and Alec Hansen. Because of control issues, Hansen has dropped all the way down to #62 on the MLB.com prospect list. My fear is the same thing can happen to A.J. Puk. On the mlb.com prospect show last night they commented that if they were the coach of the Florida Gators and they had one big game to win for the College World Series, their starting pitcher would be Logan Shore, not A.J. Puk. Puk may be the better prospect but he’s not even the best starting pitcher on his college team. He could turn out to be a stud but right now there are just too many red flags for me to like him at #1. Mickey Moniak has no glaring red flags in his game. With no clear cut top choice, Moniak seems to be the safest choice. If not Moniak, then Lewis. There are some good arms that will still be available in round 2.

  27. This is the best thing that I have read on the Phillies pick in a while. Moniak or Lewis, whomever takes less money is my guy. Love that strategy!

    “Nobody has separated himself from the pack, so the Phillies are looking for the perfect combination of talent and price tag. For example, if the Phillies consider Players A, B and C to be similar in talent, but Player C can be signed for less money, it could push him to the top because the Phillies could use the money saved there to select more talented (and pricier) picks in the second round and beyond. It makes sense for a rebuilding team like the Phillies to build the deepest, most competitive Draft class possible.”

    http://m.phillies.mlb.com/news/article/182030812/phillies-could-go-hitter-with-no-1-pick

      1. I caught the tail end. They’re bringing in 7 players the next couple days to work out, and about 25 total. That’s all I was able to hear.

  28. All the talk about wins in this thread misses the point. AJ Puk, from what I understand, only had one game all season where he lasted through the 7th inning. He averaged less than 5 innings per start, because he ineffectual or his pitch counts get too high. He can’t get wins, because he can’t get through 5 innings of college baseball. I can’t believe Puk is still in the conversation for #1.

  29. I like the idea of Spread the money around approach get the cheapest at 1.1 that mite be Ratherford . I just want a pitcher that can hit the mit aka Doc, Lee , Hamels, Carlton, Schilling. Give me bat speed with contact .

  30. Groome over Puk due to their recent tendency to favor control pitchers.
    Hellicksen
    nola
    Eshelman
    Elfin
    If they choose a hitter, I’d favor senzel.

    It will be interesting. You would just hate for Groome to go to another team and become a Clayton Hershaw while your #1 pick becomes a average or less than average major/minor leaguer.

    It would almost be vetter to have the 7th pick again.

    1. That latest rumor on Groome is his dropping Vanderbilt for a JC. This will create more leverage for him…..

  31. I downloaded the top 11 picks for every draft into an Excel file, and played around with HS Pitcher vs. College Pitcher vs. HS Position Player vs. College Position Player. I can share any filters anyone wants to see, but I found my results were a little dry. A few points though:

    -College position players hit way more often than every other category.

    -HS position players have the highest upside (ARod, Chipper, Griffey),

    -HS pitchers are by far the riskiest pick, and they don’t have the upside to make up for it.

    -Draft a pitcher only if there are no red flags. Even then, be extremely worried.

    1. Everybody’s got an agenda. He ranks Ray second overall in the draft, then he reports that it’s between Puk and Ray when nobody else has reported this. I find it dubious. But who knows? It could be literally anybody at this point.

  32. @JSalisburyCSN

    Phillies draft update, 5 top candidates for No. 1 pick, feels like Moniak has inside track.

    1. Maybe Moniak at $6M or less and then another good HSer at 42 or maybe deal arrangement with Stanford’s Cal Quantrill.

      1. San Diego has him locked up about 5 or more sites say that . Who knows there may be many possibilities at 42 .

    2. I don’t want Moniak. For me, he doesn’t have enough power and power projection to be the first pick. A power left handed pitcher is more of a need, so imo the pick should either be Puk or Groome.

        1. Don’t draft for need as the top pick….??? When, oftentimes, the candidates are bunched together with no obvious #1…then it could come down to which one better fills a need. That SHOULD be a consideration when the choice is made.

          1. Yeah but a high school player is probably 4 years away. How do you know what you will need in 4 years?

      1. Again, don’t draft for need at 1:1. Take the best player. If you have all the top guys rated about the same, then maybe positional need becomes a factor, but only then.

        Regarding Moniak, he is not a slugger. However, his projected power is perfectly acceptable for a CF. As noted previously, in addition to his hit tool (perhaps the best in the draft), he has a plus glove at a premium defensive position and should be able to stick at that position. IMO, he makes the most sense for the Phillies at 1:1.

        1. We already have Herrera and Quinn. We don’t need another centerfielder. And again, to me at least, Puk and Groome are the best available players, and it’s not even close imo.

          1. Respectfully disagree. Regardless of how deep you THINK you are at a position, you’re acquiring value. Which means that you have something somebody else might need later on and convert that excess talent to meet your need. All things equal, of course, then by all means go for what meets the perceived need.

            1. And three maybe four years from now if Moniak develops as you would hope you could trade Herrera or him for a player at a position of need.

          2. You don’t think something between Ellsbury/Yelich/Cain/Ethier/Markakis and best case scenario McCutchen is better than a tall lefty who throws very hard, has generally no idea where it’s going and has back issues?

            You’d take a guy who walked 8 in 10.1 against Harvard and Dartmouth #1?

            1. I would not take Puk. Don’t think he’s a 1.1; I would go outfielder if they don’t have the stomach to take Groome.
              1 Moniak
              2 Lewis
              3 Ray

  33. How far can we take the savings from paying under slot on the 1.1? Let’s say they pay the 1.1 somewhere around $6.7 that saves $2.3. The 2.1 slot is $1.536 plus $2.3 = $3.853. Let’s say they pay $2.85. They have another $1 million for 3.1 which would be $1.813.

    Do they follow this pattern or basically use it all for 2.1?

    1. Depends on their target candidate……by your example if he is going to fall to the 16th pick or later….
      15. Twins $2.8M
      16. Angels $2.7M
      ….you may be able to do that for the 42nd selection..

    2. The Phils’ overall bonus pool is $13.4 million, but that can be increased by another $670K without serious penalty.

      In the first three rounds combined, the Phils’ slots total @$11.4 million, but they could increase that to $12 million.

      In your scenario, $6.7 million at 1:1 would leave about $5.3 for rounds 2 and 3. If the Phils were willing, they could pay as much as $4.5 million for their second pick. That could be an excellent pick since I don’t think there will be more than 10 players in the entire draft who will get a $4.5-million bonus.

      Instead of going all in with the second pick, the Phils could pay, for example, a $3.3-million bonus at No. 42 and a $2-million bonus at No. 78. The Phils could go this way since there should be some very good prospects available this draft at 78.

      There are a number of other options available to the Phillies as long as they don’t exceed their bonus pool by more than 5%.

      1. Also, if they sign some of their first 10 picks under slot (as teams often do by drafting a college senior with 9th or 10th round picks, knowing they will sign for far less than $100,000 as they have no other options), the savings goes to increase the amount they can pay others. They could net an extra $150,000 that way to be used on higher picks.

        1. you can save alot more than that if you want to. Cubs last year spent under 100k signing picks 6-10. total of those slot values for the phils this year is over 900k. phils have done a pretty good job bringing in a quantity of players for the farm system, so doing something like that and maximizing quality in the first 5 rounds and for some post round 10 picks, isnt a bad idea.

      2. The Phils can use that extra 5% if they play it smart – increasing their spending pool from $13.4M to $14M. If the Phils spent around $12.5M in the 1st 3 rounds, they can get 3 legit MLB top 100 type prospects . This will leave them with $1.5M for the next 7 rounds which they may need to sign a good prospect at 4.1 (pick 107) couple of underslot guys @ $200k for 5.1 (pick 137) and 6.1 (pick 167) and 4 College Seniors (mostly like bullpen arms so they can start at CLW) for $10k to $20k each for rounds 7 to 10.

        Then stock the rounds 10-25 with $100k type signings, and get another nick fanti, tyler viza, pelletier type of prospects in rounds 26-35.

        Easier said than done, and the Phils FO is way smarter than me which means they do a better job than what i just proposed.

  34. Rumor is they will pick a college player and if not it will be a high school player. It also will be either a pitcher or if not a position player.

    1. BobD……where have you been?
      Finally, what a breath of fresh air, someone with a logical assessment of the situation and answer! 🙂

    1. Great quote,

      “Moniak has run the 60-yard dash in 6.58 seconds, which puts him in the 97.76 percentile, according to Perfect Game, a leading scouting service. His bat speed ranks in the 98.75 percentile and hand speed 97.28. Plus, he’s considered a plus defender in center field with a strong arm”

      1. BA has him as the best hs hitter , best Hs defensive CF , best strike zone management. Help me out here wasn’t C the best Hs hitter. Crawford wasn’t he from Hs isn’t he the number #1 prospect in baseball.

  35. Keith Law, this morning, on an Ohio radio station:

    * “The Phillies haven’t decided yet” on who they’re taking at 1.1.
    * “This draft doesn’t have a clear #1 overall talent. Both the Phillies and Reds want to save money on their first picks to potentially overpay somebody later in the draft.”
    * “Right now, I’ve got the Phillies taking AJ Puk.”
    * “At that point, the Reds would consider Nick Senzel or Kyle Lewis.”
    * “I think the Reds would like to save two to three million dollars with the second pick.”
    * “Up top, this is a weak draft. Next year’s looks better. This draft, however, is deep in HS pitching. Some of those prep pitchers will slip to picks 30 – 45 to teams who can overpay them.”

    For me, the most interesting piece of information is the fact that the Reds want to save two to three million dollars at 1.2. That should drive down AJ Puk’s asking price should the Phillies select him at 1.1. It sounds like he won’t get more than 6 million dollars from the Reds.

  36. Puk does not make even Third team All American. I am sure that doesn’t matter to those that like him, but certainly indicates that his year was not a particularly accomplished one. maybe it will be Lewis?

      1. Romus I have seen a lot of film on Moniak. I wish I knew how to judge bat speed. on a player who is facing kids. who throw in the 80s. I Love how he goes to all fields. I like this pick. But he is a risk. Hs kid to me are a big risk with the bat. That being said I don’t buy into the power part. I remember a skinny kid we drafted from California. He got stronger and hit some homeruns. one year he hit 31 homeruns. Had 150 for his career. . Mike Lieberthal

  37. Here’s the latest from BA’s John Manuel (included in his mock 5.0):

    1. PHILLIES: Unchanged here from the last mock. Puk didn’t even get to the fifth inning in his last start against Connecticut, and hasn’t answered questions about just how competitive he is start after start. It’s hard to get just two wins, as Puk has, for a 50-win team when Puk has started every week, even accounting for two starts where he left starts early for injury or illness. That leaves Moniak, thought to be the Phils’ favorite. Scouts report club executive Pat Gillick was on hand for Moniank’s best game, a 5-for-5, eight-RBI, hit-for-the-cycle game among the several Moniak games he attended. Gillick, former manager Charlie Manuel and other Phils officials were at one of La Costa Canyon High’s practices as recently as last week. Now the question may be what it will take for Moniak to sign and what the Phillies can do with their other picks, as there has been talk they’ll try to float Rutherford to their second pick and sign him for essentially the same bonus as Moniak. PICK: Mickey Moniak, of | Video
    Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-draft-5-0/#yJHDGJYk5I0Kbeyw.99

    How nice would that daily double be … Moniak and Rutherford !!!

    1. Manuel also says the Mets may be the team to block Rutherford from reaching the Phillies at #42:

      19. METS: Rumors are fast and furious for the Mets after weeks of them being tied to Will Craig. They appear to be the team most tied to Rutherford and may be the team to block the Phillies from floating him all the way to their second selection. PICK: Blake Rutherford, of | Video

      I’m not sure the Mets can get in the way if the Phillies offer Rutherford 5 million.

      1. Hinkie…….IMO, Rutherford at 42 does not really seem to be the philosphy of MacPhail/Klentak….that may be a deceptive ploy. for what reason I would not know….but if it is Moniak at 1.1 underslot…..why not a pitcher at 42……they like the ‘wave of arms’ in their system.
        And there are plenty of HS arms that a deal could be reached.

        1. Maybe they see Francisco Morales as their first round pitcher. Let’s face it … (judging from his profile) If he were old enough and was draft eligible, he would be taken with one of the first 42 picks.
          Add Morales with a couple of prep pitchers who could fall to rounds 3 – 5 (Jeff Belge, Reggie Lawson, Nick Lodolo ???) and that would be a nice wave of arms in the lower levels of the system.

            1. I’ve liked Ian Anderson if they were going to try to get an over-slot pitcher to #42. However, Manuel says he’s rising up draft boards and the Braves may take him at 1.3.

        2. Agree. Seems more likely that the Phillies’ first two picks would consist of one position player and one pitcher (hopefully in that order).

      2. After pick 1:6 and unless a team wants to blow most of its bonus pool on one pick, the only teams that can block the Phils at No. 42 by offering as big a bonus are the Reds, Braves, Padres, Dodgers and Cardinals and at least two of these are a stretch.

        1. I don’t totally agree. Those are the team’s that can EASILY block the Phillies. There are a few more that can just sign a Senior in the 2nd round to get most of the money needed.

          1. You are right that there are a few more teams than I listed.

            I think the best way to look at this is that the Phils will have $14 million in their bonus pool plus 5%. If the Phils can sign 1:1 at $6 million, they are left with $8 million.

            $8 million exceeds the bonus pool (+ 5%) of 14 teams – from the Mariners to the Cubs. Of the remaining 15 teams, the Rockies, A’s and Brewers will likely have less than $8 million remaining in their bonus pool (+ 5%) after their first picks. That leaves potentially 12 teams that can compete for talent with the Phillies after pick number 6.

            The 12 teams are the Reds, Braves, Padres, White Sox, Dodgers, Cardinals, Twins, Mets, Rays, Nationals, Orioles and Indians. Of these 12, the last five could match, but not exceed, the Phils’ bonus at No. 42. The same is true of the Braves after pick number 3. Of the remaining six teams, the Reds, White Sox, and Twins have single picks between No. 6 and No. 42. These three teams could outbid the Phillies at No. 42.

            The Padres, Cardinals, and Dodgers have multiple picks between No. 6 and No. 42. Since the strength of this draft is supposedly between No. 25 and No. 75, the issue for these teams is whether or not to take quantity over quality.

            The bottom line is that there are three to six teams that can outbid the Phillies at No. 42. How many depends on the drafting stance of three teams. In addition, there are another half dozen teams that can match the Phillies at No. 42.

            I had previously said the Phils could get a Top 10 talent by going over slot at No. 42. While that was too optimistic, the Phils can still get a Top 20 talent at No. 42.

            1. I’m not arguing with you about the Phillies ability to pay a top ten talent at 42. I just don’t think it’s as cut and dry that the Braves, Padres, Reds, Dodgers and Cardinals are the only competition. Basically every team with a comp pick has the ability to jump on a guy the Phillies are trying to float back to 42.

              The good news is Matt Manning’s 5 million price tag. That eliminates a lot of competition for him.

            2. I should have said the Phillies should do no worse than get a Top 20 talent at No. 42. A Top 10 guy is still doable, however.

              The Phils should be able to pay a $4.5 million bonus at No. 42. $4.5 million is over-slot for every player picked after No. 4. I doubt there will be 10 players in the entire draft that get a bonus of $4.5 million or higher.

              While there are a number of teams that can pay a $4.5 million bonus after No. 4, I doubt that there will be many that do.

    2. If that happens I’d crap myself 2 top hs hitters , now if they sign the young Japan phenom that would give then a young ace.

      1. Tim … my game plan is ,,. go with the young core. After the 2018 season add Manny Machado and Shoei Ohtani as soon as he’s posted and win a few WS !

        1. I seen him boy he looks good. I’d rather spend money in the Japan , korean markets higher rate of success then the LA markets.

          1. Tim and Hinkie…you guys are probably too young to remember Gary Wright….but his one big hit single I believe you have come to embody when you talk of Machado and Ohtani winding up in red pinstripes.
            But it is good for the soul to ‘Weave a Dream’.

        2. Filthy stuff but a lot of the swings and misses are on stuff out of the strike zone. Hell, most of the called strikes were out of the zone. He could be the next Aumont.

    3. If the Phils can sign 1.1 Moniak @ $6M and sign 2.1 Rutherford @ $5M – it’s hard to see any team to sway Rutherford away from the Phils. Assuming the price tag is $5M – that will be 59% (or 56% eith 5% over allowance) of Met’s pool – so more likely than not, they will not take the chance especially the Mets can still sign a very good prospect @ 1.19 for slot.

      Moniak and Rutherford for $11M will be a good haul but this might limit their ability to sign top HS arms with $2.4M (or $3M with 5% allowance) left in the bonus slot for the next 8 rounds.

      1. Landing Moniak and Rutherford in the first two rounds would be a coup. If they pulled it off, they could leave all the top HS arms on the board as far as I’m concerned.

  38. interesting comment in there about Perez maybe not going in round 1?
    he picks the Mets to take Rutherford at 19..but mets at 19 and 31 only adds up to about 4.2 so that doesnt seem realistic for Mets to pull off?

    1. Mets do have a total pool of $7.6M, not likely but they may go overslot at 19 ($2.4M)and pay the 75% overage tax/fine if they feel Rutherford is their man.
      But agree does not seem realistic for them to be able to do that

    2. All it would take for the Mets to pull that off, is sign a Senior in the 2nd round (1 mil), go over there pool by 4.9% (350k) and give the extra money to Rutherford.

      1. That would get them at approx. $3.8M, (2.4 +.350 +.9) which would probably get Rutherford on board.

        1. I am hoping everyone can make romus draft party at xfinity. It starts at 4.00. Romus has reserved the back room at chickie and petes. Food and drinks just charge it to cc 4949 9494 0340 2045 Mr. romus mc clary. Door prizes if you pick the first 4 rounds of Phillies draft right. First prize is a weekend at romus house in Rome Italy.

  39. This is getting pretty fascinating. Other pro drafts have nothing on MLB except higher media exposure.

    1. To the contrary, I think other drafts have EVERYTHING on the MLB draft. Between the long incubation time of prospects, the high failure rate and the inability to trade prospects, unless you are a complete baseball draftnick, the world as a whole views this as a non-event after the first round. Now, I don’t agree with the world as a whole, but it’s nothing compared to the NFL and NBA drafts.

      1. By higher media exposure I mean HYPE. By hype I mean it’s empty calories for the true sports fan’s diet. The whole over/under-slot aspect is unique to MLB and adds intrigue. I would question whether there needs to be that many rounds. But following how each draftee develops (or not) thru his respective team’s system over time is half the fun for a real baseball fan.

  40. Delvin Perez has reportedly failed a drug test (not steroids and not marijuana). Will not be picked on the first day of the draft (first two rounds).

      1. Could be something like Adderall. If that were the case, I’d still consider him in the second round.

        1. I bet one of the seven Comp Bal small market teams(35 thru 41) will take a chance on him…they are already playing with ‘house money’ so to speak…or even the Cardinals with back-to- back at 33 and 34.

  41. I Take him at 42. I can get him any drugs he needs. Look we used to give Charlie Hayes weed. He would come around tenth and Oregon. Even when he got traded if he came into town guys would give him weed. He loved to smoke.

  42. Can you imagine the GCL Phillies potential outfield this year ?
    Mickey Moniak, Blake Rutherford, Jhalyn Ortiz, and Ben Pelletier !!!!

  43. I like to ask a question. What do you consider a good draft. I love looking back at older drafts. I think if you get at least two guys that can help. The 2009 draft its was singleton who has been up. Ruf who has been up. Altheer. who hs been up. and still has time to prove himself. Zeid is the other player.

    1. rocco…I remember that Brady Colvin from that draft, was going to be the pitcher that would surprise everybody with his stuff, and for the next few years it was hoping…..and that was that..

      1. Romus if you get two or three kids who can help. say a nerris. Thompson. galvis types out of a draft is that consider a nice draft. Just trying to figure out what is a good draft. great draft or okay draft.

        1. IMO….starts with a team’s numero uno pick…if that player gets to the majors and averages 2+ WAR annually, then it looks like a favorable draft to start……if the number one doesn’t make it….the draft then is and can be labeled average or less, at best. Then you hope for the anomaly…..for example, number ones fails but the 5th rounder becomes a MLB mid-rotation starter or better

          1. I was thinking like when we got Howard at 5 that would make it a good draft. The first pick was Galvin Floyd then terry jones. But we hit on Howard a Allstar.

  44. I, like everyone else, now have the feeling the Phillies are going hitter at 1. Seems like they are moving away from Puk, according to reports.

    If this is the case, I hope they go Kyle Lewis at 1. I can get excited about his RH power and the excellent discipline he showed at the plate this year when he was obviously being pitched around.

    For whatever reason, I cannot get myself excited about Moniak. He’s a great prospect but I just don’t see him as a 1:1 profile pick. The lack of current power, the lack of power in future projections and the fact he is a high school player all push me away from him. I’m just more of a believer in college hitters this high in the draft. Obviously the fact that Lewis played at a small school somewhat mitigates the strong history of recent college hitters in the draft but I’m willing to risk it for that power potential.

    I love the idea of Rutherford at 42 if he falls. I know there’s been talk about getting a hitter and pitcher at 1 and 42 (I think Almaraz may have even said it??) but Lewis/Rutherford would be amazing, as would Lewis/HS pitcher that drops because of bonus demands.

    Either way, we should walk away from this draft with two elite prospects (maybe 3 depending how it shakes it out) and that is exciting. Can’t wait for Thursday night.

    1. I like both Lewis and Moniak. But the more I think about it, the more I’m on board with Moniak at 1:1. Reports suggest he is plus defensively at CF, his hit tool is as high as 70 in some scouts eyes, and he is supposed to have an advanced approach even at such a young age. I love Lewis’ power, and if they took him I’d be totally happy, but he’s limited to a corner and his swing supposedly needs some pretty significant refinement. Even though he’s coming from HS, Moniak is sounding more and more like the safer pick to me.

      Plus, I’m willing to bet that Moniak can be had for less than Lewis. Atlanta has been connected to Lewis at No. 3, so he’s less likely to take less money when he knows he could still be drafted near the top.

      1. I don’t see Lewis getting more than $6 million.

        And I don’t see Moniak taking less than $5 million. Their bonuses are going to be pretty close I think…close enough anyway where I’m not taking one over the other because of a $400,000 for example. They are going to save a minimum of $2.5 to $3 million by selecting either of these guys which gives them plenty of ammunition for an overslot at 42…

        Just take the best player (even if they think its Puk still) and let’s hope they make the right choice.

        1. I think Moniak is the better choice between the two. Lewis’ power might give him a higher ceiling (though not by much if Moniak’s bat and defense is as advertised), but Moniak seems to be a more likely bet to be a successful big leaguer.

          1. The theory being that he gets his upfront money earlier, allowing it to earn interest. Plus, he gets paid for his years in the minors.

      2. Why would the HS guy sign for less than the college guy? The HS guy has a UCLA commitment to use as leverage. All Lewis can do is go back for senior year and put himself at the mercy of whoever drafts him next year.

        1. It’s been reported that Moniak is willing to bargain with the Phils if he goes 1:1. Lewis’ leverage lies in the likelihood of going top five if he’s not selected first overall.

        2. Because the high school guy is rumored to drop to as far as 12 if the Phillies don’t take him, whereas Lewis is projected to go to Atlanta at 3 if the Phillies pass on him.

          Granted, these are only rumors and projections, but its all we have to work off of right now.

          Its more about where they would be drafted otherwise if Phillies don’t take them 1, then strictly about Moniak being a high school guy versus Lewis being a college junior.

          it is extremely rare these days for anyone drafted in top 10 (high school or college) to not sign. You’re crazy to turn down that money.

          In the last 5 years, theres only been three guys drafted in top 10 that didn’t sign, and two of them were huge aberrations:

          college junior Mark Appel in 2012 – the first year of the new draft slot system (Appel getting screw out of huge bonuses that Harper/Strasburg/Cole received the immediate years before) + Scott Boras client = Appel dropping to 8 and not signing

          high school pitcher Phil Bickford in 2013 – 10th overall pick decided not to sign. Pretty standard, was seen as a “tough sign” before draft.

          high school Brady Aiken in 2014 – 1st overall pick, elbow problems discovered at physical after agreeing to deal and Astros revoked their offer, we all know this story

          1. So if he is rumored to drop to 12…..and not sure how many of the mocks have him there…maybe it is an outlier….then his calling card would be in the range of $3.2M?

            1. There’s lot’s of talk of Moniak going to the Rockies at 1-4. That slot is worth 5.25 million. My guess is he would sign for 5.3 million if the Phillies pick him. If they wanted to, the Phillies could then take the 3.7 million in savings and add that to the 1.55 million the 2-42 slot is worth and be able to offer Rutherford as much as 5,25 million. That would jibe with what BA reported in their mock yesterday (offer Rutherford about the same bonus as Moniak). I’m almost positive no other team could (financially) get in the way of that.

            2. Hinkie….think about it….why would Moniak only sign for a small percentage higher than the 42nd pick? Do you think his rep/agent would advise him to do that?
              IMO, he starts talking at $6M and settles at $6.5M…now I could be wrong but that is how I would advise him.

            3. In reply to Romus, Moniak would do that for a couple reasons:

              1. He will have agreed to his bonus before the Phillies draft him, so he will have no idea what the 42 pick gets

              2. As Hinkie said, the Rockies at 1-4 slot value is $5.25 million. And there’s achance he drops even farther than that. If he does he’s facing his slot value dropping to $3 something million once you get into the 10th pick range (off the top of my head…I don’t remember the exact values). So he takes the $5 something the Phillies would offer.

              I think it’s important to keep in mind when talking about bonuses….it’s not as important to compare two separate players (as in if guy in front of me or behind me got this, then I deserve that). It’s more important in the above Moniak scenario to compare the slot value of where a player might get drafted (in Moniak’s case somewhere between 4-12) versus where he is actually picked (potentially 1:1). As long as your bonus offer exceeds the slot value of where he would have been picked (between 4-12) the player is likely to take it…or more likely to take it I should say

            4. TGunn……one question I would like to pose, what is the lowest a 1.1 signed for below slot…..percentage wise that is? College-guy Swanson signed at 76% last year, so his leverage was a bit lower. The last HSer was Carlos Correa in ’12….I believe his was $4.8M, but the $4.8 million bonus was far below the recommended slot value of $7.2 million and is the lowest since the KC Royals doled out just $3.5 million for Luke Hochevar…but it was still 67%
              Tomorrow night a 67% is a minimum of $6M
              Now as his legal rep, how would you advise him?

            5. Romus, I think your percentages are correct.

              I’ve thought this whole time that the signing bonus would be in the range of $6 million to $7 million, but I think $7 million is unlikely to happen.

              However, as Moniak’s legal rep, I assume I would have talked to other teams and have an idea if one of them would take me (even guarantee it).

              Here’s the slot values:

              1. Phillies $9,015,000
              2. Reds $7,762,900
              3. Braves $6,510,800
              4. Rockies $5,258,700
              5. Brewers $4,382,200
              6. Athletics $4,069,200
              7. Marlins $3,756,300
              8. Padres $3,630,900
              9. Tigers $3,505,800
              10. White Sox $3,380,600
              11. Mariners $3,286,700
              12. Red Sox $3,192,800

              So, if I’m Moniak’s legal rep and I know that the Reds, Braves, Rockies, and Brewers (just for this hypothetical) have not contacted me to see what my bonus demands were or have not indicated to me that they will draft me, then I know the Athletics with a $4,069,200 slot value are the highest team that may draft me. Assuming the Athletics wont go overslot, if the Phillies offer me $5 million to Moniak as the 1:1 I would advise him to take it. Because its $1 million more than he would get from the Athletics and increasingly more than he would get as he falls past the Athletics. Plus he can say he was first overall pick in the draft.

            6. TGunn….good analysis,
              …..I think he settles at $6.4M…with 42nd left to go at a minimum of $4.1M….this without taking the 5% overage into account.

            7. Romus … a few of points:

              1. As Tommy said, I’m sure Moniak’s reps know where his possible landing spots are. From everything I’ve read, he won’t go to the Reds at 1-2 or the Braves 1-3. The Rockies are a possibility at 1-4, but I’ve also seen them mentioned for Groome, Pint, or one of the other HS arms.

              2. This is also the reason why they would not be able to get a similar deal with Puk. The Reds have already said they’ll take Puk at 1-2.

              3. If you believe in the old “where there’s smoke, there’s fire” theory … BA reported they’ve heard the Phillies may be planning to offer both Moniak and Rutherford “essentially the same bonus” to land both of them. By that math, the 5.3 million and 5.25 million figures I mentioned earlier make the most sense.

            8. TGunn….btw…..all of this is off the table, if he decides to hire the Boras Co. as his legal rep.

  45. http://prospectinsider.com/hervey-quick-dirty-explanation-of-the-20-80-scale/ I always wonder about scales. Cause how can you put accurate number on a kids swing. When he isn’t facing a hard thrower. I Look at his swing at a 90 fastball and you can see over time. if he has the bat speed. never understood these scale . This article proves that its not accurate in a lot of ways. I know I have read there is no way to really scout a number for defense. So now I am really confused on the projections of these kids. If ten scouts for instance saw say lewis. the one might give him a 50 hit tool others 60 some 40. not very accurate from what I read. So with that in mind I think I am more confused then every on who to pick. Read the aritlce that is what I got out of it. maybe I missed something

  46. Jason Groome, ranked No. 1 on the Top 200 Draft Prospects list, might be headed to junior college, if the Draft doesn’t go as planned.

    Groome, the lefty from Barnegat Township High School in New Jersey, had originally committed to Vanderbilt University, but there was late word that he had changed gears and instead committed to Chipola College, a two-year school in Florida. By switching to the junior college, Groome would be eligible for the 2017 Draft should he decide not to sign.

    http://m.mlb.com/news/article/182564040/draft-buzz-what-callis-and-mayo-are-hearing

    1. Article also mentions high schoolers other than Rutherford who could fall due to their asking price. Pitchers Manning, Wentz and Horn, and 3B Mendoza and OF Benson.

    2. Terrible move on his part….if he wants to sign this year.

      He already has character and immaturity concerns according to many sources…now this move makes him seem even more unsignable. He is basically leveraging himself even more now, since he can easily not sign and now be eligible for next years draft.

      Teams are already wary of him, this will add to the uneasiness of drafting him.

      And its almost always a bad idea for a pitcher slated to be drafted this high to forego the money. The risk of arm injury in young pitchers is so great, that if you have the chance for $3 to $5 million you need to grab it.

      Does anyone know who is advising him? This seems like an ill-advised move to me, unless:

      It’s a ploy to fall in the draft and grab an overslot deal with someone. And if its the Phillies than I’m all for it haha. I will take Jason groome at 42 and give him $5 million all day

          1. I Just cant imagine a team telling my kid ,We will pay you 6 million to sign. plus put money away for your college education. And turning it down. Even if you taxed at 40%. which you wont. its 3.6 million dollars at 18 yrs old. How many people make 3.6 million in there lives. after taxes.

      1. That’s interesting that you saw it that way Tommy I saw it the opposite way. Teams pretty much know (for pitchers at least) there is inherent risk in taking the college offer when you consider how a program like Vandy will throw you until your arm falls off.

        Not to mention it is what at least 2 years before you can enter back into the draft where as the JUCO he can almost dictate how much he throws and be back in the draft after 1 year.

        A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush especially if the 2 in the bush is two years plus out. However 2 in the bush only 1 year out puts more pressure on the team that wants him to up their offer.

        I can’t wait to see how this all plays out. I think Groome goes in the top 10 somewhere and I think he signs.

    3. I think he’s simply trying to create some leverage so it appears that he has another option besides taking a low ball offer. Junior college however says to me that he really wants to play pro ball now and now wait three years. I think Groome goes to the Braves at 3.

      1. What is also cool about Mike Schmidt being drafted in the second round is that he, and George Brett were selected in back-to-back picks. How wild is that?

  47. I also think schmidlt blew out his knee in college. But they still took him. if I remember it right.

  48. No wonder there are reports circling about Groome’s make-up. What kind of power play move is this? Kid’s either getting some seriously bad advice or he simply has no ability to define his worth re: bonus.

    Why doesn’t he just move to Costa Rica and apply to become a free agent?

    1. Didn’t Harper do something similar with his JUCO enrollment to enter the draft earlier and there also was some backlash…but in the end after being drafted it went was all forgotten. I do not think it will hurt Groome.

      1. Harper was 17 when he went to the JUCO skipping his senior year of HS I believe…

        but it wasn’t to avoid signing a low ball deal it was more to get into the league earlier than he would have otherwise been able to.

        1. Harper skipped his junior and senior years of HS and went to JUCO. Essentially, he was a junior in HS playing in college before being drafted No. 1.

      2. Harper went to Southern Nevada so he could enter the draft a year early, not prolong his signing a year.

        1. Yeah….got that…it is the JUCO enrollment to circumvent the normal process is what I was referring to.

    2. What’s the problem with his make-up? That he knows how to negotiate? This is the one chance he gets for a big pay day, and he wants to make the most of it. There’s no guarantee he’ll make more than a rookie contract.

      If he passes on a good offer, then that’s one thing, but the kid hasn’t even been drafted yet.

      This doesn’t tell us anything about him other than that he’s smart, and it bothers me that they’re dragging him through the mud for giving himself a second option beyond the ONE team’s offer that drafts him.

    1. That info was on the board about a wk ago but with other stuff in might have been missed. BORAS has 1 client Senzel in the top 5. Still don’t know who Puk has he talks to the Media about as much as Steve Carlton.

  49. Stupid secretary I called and asked for Lenny Strelitz she wouldn’t connect me. you try romus Wasserman Media Group , LLC company

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    1. rocco……now that is surprising!
      Does she know exactly WHO YOU ARE!
      Did you tell her you were the owner and founder of the South Philadelphia Organic Cannabis Cooperative?
      With sales to top professional athletes.

    1. I knew it….too much weed has done that to your brain!
      Cannabis…..its plural for people who eat other people. 🙂

  50. ‘The Phillies, a source said, have had their board set for days. Johnny Almaraz, the team’s scouting director, said earlier in the week that “a really good scenario” would be to split the first two picks on a hitter and pitcher. Speculation in the industry has pegged numerous high-school pitchers as candidates to drop out of the first round because of financial demands. One of those arms could be the Phillies’ pick at No. 42.’
    Matt Gelb
    http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20160609_Phillies__first_draft_pick_still_a_secret.html#FCoO0idFoSh8Y7vJ.99

    1. Nice read Romus first time that I heard Composure tied to Puk. Seems like it’s Puk and Moniak neck and Neck .

      1. If Johnny A’s plan is what they use….could be Puk and Rutherford ( with a deal in place)……or Moniak and a HS pitcher with a deal in place, I would hope it would be Manning or Muller if HS or Quantrill if college but appears the Padres are all in on Quantrill.

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