Open Discussion: Week of May 30th

Weekly Discussion

Here’s the open discussion thread for Phillies’ talk and other topics. 

The Phillies are 26-24 after going 1-5 this week.   They lost  2 of 3 in Detroit and were swept by the Cubs.  They are tied with Miami for third place in the division  and the seventh best record in the NL.

The Phillies pitchers were a little exposed against power hitters, and the Phillies batters lack of power was greatly exposed by good pitchers this week.

Tommy Joseph got 3 starts in Detroit and 2 in Chicago.  He went 6 for 19 with 2 HR.  He is hitting .286 (10-35)  since his call up.  He went 5-16 against right-handed pitchers and is now 5-23 against them.  He dipped to .417 against lefties.

Prior Week’s Transactions:  

  • 5/28 – Carlos Alonso assigned to Reading from Lehigh Valley.
  • 5/28 – Will Morris assigned to Reading from Williamsport.
  • 5/27 – Phillies sent Cody Asche on a rehab assignment to Lehigh Valley.
  • 5/27 – Phillies sent Mario Hollands on a rehab assignment to Lehigh Valley.
  • 5/27 – Lehigh Valley placed Mark Appel on the 7-Day DL. Strained right shoulder.
  • 5/27 – Ben Lively assigned to Lehigh Valley from Reading.
  • 5/27 – Clearwater placed Jesen Therrien on the 7-Day DL.
  • 5/27 – Alberto Tirado assigned to Clearwater from XST.
  • 5/25 – Luis Morales assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport.
  • 5/25 – Scott Harris assigned to Williamsport from Lakewood.
  • 5/24 – Reading placed 3B Harold Martinez on the 7-Day DL. Sprained right ankle.
  • 5/24 – Will Morris assigned to Williamsport from Clearwater.
  • 5/23 – Reading activated Christian Marrero from the 7-day DL.
  • 5/23 – Lakewood activated Scott Harris from the 7-day DL.
  • 5/23 – Lakewood placed Damek Tomscha on the 7-day DL. Concussion.  Retroactive to May 21, 2016. concussion
  • 5/23 – Venn Biter assigned to Lakewood from XST.
  • 5/23 – Luis Morales assigned to Williamsport from Lakewood.
  • Rosters are up to date here.

94 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of May 30th”

  1. With the draft approaching, I was looking at our roster composition. Of the 32 players who’d played for the Phillies this year, only six were drafted by the club.

    By acquisition:

    10 Free Agents (31%)
    6 Drafted(19%)
    6 Traded (19%)
    5 Amateur Free Agent (Latin players) (16%)
    3 Rule 5 Draft (9%)
    2 Waivers (6%)

    And of the six players whom the Phillies drafted, three are marginal talents at best:

    Darin Ruf
    Colton Murray
    Adam Morgan

    There’s only three players the Phillies drafted who are contributing (or, in Howard’s case, had):

    Aaron Nola
    Cameron Rupp
    Ryan Howard

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    1. I don’t want to nitpick but remember who they traded to get some of these pieces in the lineup. Hamels and Giles were Philly draft picks who brought some of these players plus a significant bounty to the minors. Throw in Utley and Rollins and maybe a few other guys can be added to the future. In a few years, the Phils will be loaded with some of these guys that came via trades and guys they drafted.

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      1. Absolutely agree. Though with the current roster, of the six players acquired via trade:

        Two were acquired for almost nothing:

        Jeremy Hellickson
        Charlie Morton

        One was traded for Pence a long, long time ago:

        Tommy Joseph

        And three are from the recent trades:

        Vincent Velasquez (Giles)
        Jerad Eickhoff (Hamels)
        Brett Oberholtzer (Giles)

        Considering Oberholtzer is about as replaceable as they come, we really only have two quality players currently playing who were acquired in our roster purge.

        Granted, there is much depth in our minor leagues because of the trades, but, as our roster is constructed now, the draft has had little impact in shaping our roster.

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  2. Trade pieces by the upcoming deadline:

    Jeremy Hellickson
    Jeanmar Gomez
    David Hernandez
    Carlos Ruiz
    Cody Asche
    Freddy Galvis

    These alone won’t get you a big return but a package with prospects could get a decent bat.

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      1. Not an Asche fan myself but have heard and read a team like Cleveland might have interest if he’s healthy. For what?…. not much.

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        1. Third base was the rumor over the off-season.
          Indians also need catching prospect depth.

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    3. The Phillies are really in no position to trade away any legit prospects right now. Plus, they need a lot more than a “decent” bat.

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  3. It’s nearly June 1 and time to discuss who can be promoted. It’s not about who should be promoted but who have played well enough to warrant a promotion. The discussion has no relevance to who they’d replace or even who is ahead of them on the depth chart. Again I’m not advocating for promotion just discussing possibilities. Let’s talk hitters.

    AA to AAA: Alfaro has shown enough to be promoted. Right now he’s the best hitting catcher in the organization. He looks like he can stay at C for now. I’d like to see a lot more BBs from a guy hitting in the high .330s with a power bat. Cozens is a prolific power bat. Could it be time to move him to AAA to see if that continues? He’s very young so there’s no need to push him this early but he’s shown enough to be in a promotional discussion. Serna and Mora have also shown enough to move up. Serna is org filler but his .310/.373/.410 has proven his ability. Mora (.286/.346/.469 with an .810 OPS) has had two pretty good years and might be worthy of promotion.

    A+ to AA: Zach Green is the best hitter, by BA, on the team with a .278. He’s shown a good power bat. I’d like to see him play more 3B but he seems to be a good fielder. His 42 Ks are alarming and his 7 BBs are too few but I’d like to see him hit a few out of that field in Reading. Kingery is another guy who could be ready for the move up. .273/.346/.444 Triple/ could be enough to warrant a promotion. He has speed and is projected to be an above average fielder. Walding was a possibility earlier but he’s cooled as the heat starts to build.

    A to A+: By now I thought we’d be discussing ‘C’ Randolph or Coppola but both are injured and haven’t been able to show enough right now. Tobias has the hitter’s cred so he could be moved up. As I discussed in a post earlier in the day, he has bad lefty/righty splits but he still gets on base a lot from both sides of the plate. Pujols has shown a lot of power for a 20 y/o. His 9 HRs are pretty darn good for that LKW ballpark. His .250 avg with an alarming number of Ks. Okay, I’m sorry I mentioned him.

    I didn’t mention promotions to Philly but there are a few guys rapping on the door. When they start banging on it, we can have that discussion.

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    1. One point on your Alfaro comment…you said you would like to see more BBs…at the expense of hits? You can only have so many ABs. Or do you want to replace outs with walks? Id like to see more zeroes in my paycheck too!

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        2. It will be very difficult for him to maintain a .330 batting average with a .380 BABIP.

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      3. I think it’s a false choice to say that he would be taking walks at the expense of hits. There are only a handful of “bad ball” hitters in major league baseball about whom that would be true (Yogi Berra?). Ultimately, taking walks and not swinging at bad pitches is how one raises both batting average and on base percentage.

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          1. rocco….quite a few LA players in the past could fall into that category, especially at the start of their careers. Then there were the ones who improved that over time.
            The outlier….the leader of the pack…Bobby Abreu….he broke the mold.

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        2. My point is the guy is hitting .330…obviously he is doing something right…its not like he is batting .230 and chasing junk…at No point do I want a ‘hitter’ taking walks…thats for top of line up guys and 8 hole hitters…now before everyone gets anal i mean analytical with me..there is always a time and place…game situations, slumps, etc. He is middle of the order meat…i want him hitting and driving in runs…and people who say rbis dont matter (and ive had that argument here) please dont reply because if you dont enjoy watching a bases clearing hit why are you watching anyway?

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            1. If Alfaro ever bunts it better be like Jake Taylor did in the World Series for the Indians!

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          2. Any hitter in the order who will swing at non-strikes will not get strikes to hit. To say otherwise is like saying there is not a ‘book’ on each and every hitter.

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        3. Odubel is the perfect anomaly in this case. Walking a lot this season while being a good bad ball hitter.

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  4. Does anyone have the list of players that need to be added to the 40 man by the end of the year or risk losing them in the rule 5 draft?

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    1. I can tell you one, who turns 22 years old tomorrow and if he were born were 6 days later would need not have to be protected….Dylan Cozens.
      Then the other OFers of high prospect status are Williams and Quinn, and some may consider Carlos Tocci again.
      Phillies Minor Thoughts has an article and list on this in their archive from a few months ago.

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        1. thanks…normally 6/7 OFer are protective on a 40 MLB….Phillies could have 8 this year…..Herrera, Goeddel, Asche, Quinn, Williams, Cozens, Altherr and iffy Tocci.

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          1. Tocci is repeating High A with no marked improvement at the plate. If he wasn’t taken last year, I doubt he’d be taken this year.

            It’s amazing to consider that Tocci is in his FIFTH SEASON in A ball. Has that ever happened?

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            1. He may have set that record for prospects.
              Of course Pujols has a very good chance to tie that in a few seasons.

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          2. Tocci has had his chances…not totally writing him off but he has to earn his way back into the conversation

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          3. obviously it depends what he does after activated but Asche is a candidate to not be protected. i hope he turns himself into a jack of all trades…Randy Ready?

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    2. While not the complete list these are the prospects you would expect teams to take a chance on:
      Andrew Knapp
      Dylan Cozens
      Ben Lively
      Ricardo Pinto
      Zach Eflin
      Nick Williams
      Jake Thompson
      Nick Pivetta
      Mark Appel

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  5. On a side note:
    On this Memorial Day….my thanks and appreciation for all those who served our country, and heart-felt remembrance those who paid the ultimate sacrifice.

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  6. Adjusted OOI by league (min. 60 AB)

    AAA:
    Andrew Knapp C 0.859
    Brock Stassi 1B 0.858
    Cedric Hunter LF 0.834
    Cam Perkins LF 0.825
    T Featherston 3B 0.738
    …
    Nick Williams OF 0.702
    Dar. Sweeney OF 0.688

    AA:
    Dylan Cozens RF 1.007
    J.P. Crawford SS 0.928
    Jake Fox IF 0.911
    Angelo Mora 2B 0.831
    Rhys Hoskins 1B 0.806
    Roman Quinn CF 0.799
    Jes. Valentin 2B 0.786
    …
    Jorge Alfaro C 0.706
    Aaron Brown CF 0.697

    A+:
    Scott Kingery 2B 0.848
    Mitch Walding 3B 0.845
    Chace Numata C 0.773
    Andrew Pullin OF 0.768
    Kyle Martin 1B 0.749
    Zach Green 1B 0.741
    Malq. Canelo SS 0.733
    Gabriel Lino C 0.694
    Carlos Tocci CF 0.682
    C Sandberg RF 0.663
    H Rodriguez CF 0.651

    A:
    Dam. Tomscha OF 0.892
    Josh Tobias 2B 0.835
    Jian. Tromp LF 0.775
    Jose Pujols RF 0.757
    Austin Bossart C 0.753
    Deivi Grullon C 0.718
    Gr. Cumana SS 0.717
    Jan Hernandez 3B 0.703

    Emm. Marrero SS 0.629
    Wilson Garcia C 0.628

    JP Crawford has the highest Adjusted OBP in the system (.383), followed by Brock Stassi, who also has more BB than K.

    Dylan Cozens still has a wide lead over Crawford for best Adjusted OOI.

    Roman Quinn has cooled off considerably over the last couple weeks.

    We are really overvaluing Jorge Alfaro’s offensive contributions, which appear to be very BABIP-driven. It’s at .380. His Steamer projection gives him a very different slash line of .239/.280/.382.

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      1. OBP+OBP+ISO, which is similar to OPS. I adjusted the stats by normalizing to .300 BABIP, and I also count Caught Stealing in OBP and Stolen Bases in ISO.

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  7. When we get into discussions of the 2017 or 2018 projected ML starting outfield, Why does Goeddell usually get left out? He’s looking pretty good to me right now. He’s got great defense, good speed, and is swinging a solid bat. And this is all jumping straight to the bigs from AA. I think he’s got as good chance as anyone to nail down a corner spot going forward.

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    1. Perhaps Asche is moved and/or Bourjos is not brought back…then Goeddel I assume sticks around next year. Altherr returns, then there is OH in CF and Williams knocking on the door for sure in 2017 And Quinn’s final destination is up in the air in 2017 also.
      Goeddel is getting more comfortable and gaining confidence at the plate it seems.

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    2. Maybe if he develops more power. For now I think he’s in the discussion for at least 4th outfielder. That still means considerable playing time.

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  8. Looking at Top 30 prospects and where I have them ranked at first mile marker (Memorial Day).

    1. Crawford
    1a. Williams
    3. Thompson
    4. Alfaro
    5. Elfin
    6. Quinn
    7. Randolph
    8. Appel
    9. Kingery
    10. Knapp
    11. Cozens
    12. Ramos
    13. Lively
    14. Asher
    15. El.Garcia
    16. Hoskins
    17. Eshelman
    18. Kilome
    19. Pinto
    20. Pujols
    21. Pivella
    22. Medina
    23. Cordero
    24. Perkins
    25. Casimiro
    26. Viza
    27. Ortiz
    28. Sweeney
    29. Martin
    30. Grullon

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    1. I would put Lively at six and Cozens at seven. What they have done this season in AA should put them there.

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      1. I’m not trying to rain on your parade but lively is ranked 13 because he doesn’t project as more than a 4th or 5th starter.

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    2. I like that you went high on Ramos and low on Kilome…im a big fan of results vs potential

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    1. Perkins is ready! id give him a shot before Asche. I saw Paredes waived. I only know one thing about him. He is not Burriss!

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  10. Poorly managed game tonight at CBP. Hellickson only 79 pitches should have pitched 8th with Gomez in 9th. Instead with 2 outs, Burriss of all people pinch hits feebly when TJ sits on bench with one swing potential for insurance run. And then pay too much attention to Nats baserunners with 2 outs and Revere hitting .179; don’t get it.

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      1. Then he confounds us even more by having Joseph pinch hit for Ruiz who probably knows Papelbon’s stuff better than anyone and is great at getting runners from 2nd to 3rd with a ball the other way.

        Not getting Lough to 3rd so you can at least tie the game with a sac fly is malpractice LOL

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        1. Maybe he’s managing to get young guys into pressure situations? Pinch hitting Joseph for Ruiz makes sense if you are trying to give Joseph a chance to produce in a high leverage situation, vs. hitting with 2 outs and no base runners. Same with letting Neris face Murphy.

          I know fans have gotten caught up the the teams good start but this is still a 90-loss team. They basically have 1 position player who is better than replacement level at this point.

          IMO, the organization is smart to stay the rebuilding course and not get distracted by an unsustainable good start…

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          1. Couldn’t care if they lost 100 this year. His moves last night stunk, He managed a poor game.

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  11. Alright I’ve calmed down….my starting 8 come July or August:

    c Rupp
    1b Joseph
    2b Galvis
    3b Franco
    ss Crawford
    lf Williams
    cf Herrera
    rf Altherr (hopefully)

    Ok, I’m done. Good night.

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    1. 8,

      You’re on the Mark, pun fully intended.

      However, Crawford has got to start hitting. We all have faith in him to the point that we don’t demand that he put up the offensive numbers of a true Number One prospect, but he really has got to earn his way to CBP.

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  12. There have been requests for a list of Rule 5 eligible prospects. I keep a file, but don’t worry about updating until after the regular season each year. I copied the info I have and put it up on Google Sheets and provided the link here, Rule 5 Draft Tracker.

    It looks like it might be pretty current, and includes players who joined the organization from other organizations who should figure into the org’s protection plans prior to the draft even though they were first eligible in 2015. The important section of Rule 5 text is included under the prospect list. I’m fairly certain that the signing dates are accurate and that my interpretation of the year of rule 5 eligibility is correct.

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  13. Goeddel a keeper strong arm as accurate as they come. Plus I think he’s feeling more comfortable at the plate .

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    1. I heard Ben Davis giving a scouting report that I gave you 3 weeks ago on Goeddel he can’t get to the hard inside pitch…

      I like everything else about his game but he’ll have to show he can do damage on that pitch or he is doomed.

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      1. DMAR….I think they want to hang on Goeddel somehow through this season, and eventually do the ‘Taylor Featherston’ thing with him next year at LHV.
        Matt Klentak selected TF in the rule 5 for LAA .
        The one big hang-up…is the 40 protection.
        November final 40 could be tricky with all the OFers needed to be protected.

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        1. I definitely like him and want to keep him and want to see him out there every night over some of the alternatives. I just want them to help him correct that hole in his swing.

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    1. DMAR…that seems to be an overwhelming sentiment of the fan base.
      I remember when Schmitty called it quits around this time in ’89..he knew it was done, and he left money on the table He could have easily did the AL DH thing for another year or two but had pride to hang it up. Heck I would have liked him to get 7 mores HRs for a nice 555 HR total
      I am not sure Howard has in him to make that type of a decision.

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      1. I don’t blame Howard one bit in all of this as he is not writing his name on the line-up card 🙂

        I think of what he has earned with us in totality and all he gave us and say it was worth every penny by today’s standard. But Pete has to stop running him out there.

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        1. DMAR…well if he will be happy only playing one out of every four games going forward, then I guess that will be alright. Might ne a bit disheartening and he will not get into any rhythm, however, Mackinin did say the other day….they didn’t bring Joseph up, to sit him.
          So I guess the fans will see more of Joseph than Howard .

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        2. I don’t blame Howard either, he’s answering the bell when being called.

          That being said, I do blame the organization which are is hurting the current team and also damaging Howard’s legacy. At this point, they would be doing him a favor by releasing him, which would allow the fan base to appreciate his past contributions without having to watch the disaster his is today.

          At this point, it’s like they are trying to save some money by embarrasing him into retirement..

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    1. HaHa. I just came here to ask if anyone (who has access to that story) could give a synopsis. Thanks, in advance, to anyone who can.

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    3. From a Ben Badler chat, yesterday:

      Frank K (Philadelphia): Appreciate the July 2 info you’ve provided thus far. Do you plan to provide similar info for teams not busting the spending limit, e.g. the Phillies? Thanks
      Ben Badler: Thank you. Yes, we will have forecasts for all 30 teams and a whole bunch more preview stories leading up to July 2. The Phillies won’t spend most of their pool money on one player like they did last year, but they have been very active this year, especially in Venezuela.

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  16. Asche and Bourjos will not be on the 40 man roster come Dec, with at least 10 minor leaguers that need to be put on the 40 man.

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  17. Chase nearing career numbers 7 runs away form 1,000 ,4 hits away form 1,700,9 away from 7,000 PA . 10 from 250 Hr ,56 away from 1,000 rbi’s , 6:away from 150 sb.

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  18. ok, I guess I’ll start the “sign Hector Guerrero” bandwagon. Dodgers designated him assignment. Early reports are that the Dodgers will not be able trade him because he has a clause in his contract that he becomes a free agent this off-season if traded to a new team. So he is basically a rental if he’s traded for. This means the Dodgers will either release him or place him on waivers. I’m all for the Phillies acquiring him through either one of those avenues (release or waivers). His contract is the pro-rated portion of $7.5 million for the rest of this year and then $7.5 million next year. I would pay that to take the chance that he could straighten himself out playing every day in LF. Would much rather run him out there instead of Lough/Bourjos/Asche.

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    1. Thompson is not ready to come up. He has really struggled lately and ZERO reason to rush him

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  24. I see Morgan and Lough going down and Ruf and Eflin going up. Put Ruf in left and move Goeddel to right. Ruf has 5 HR in 14 games.

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  25. Question: With the organization’s depth in OF prospects from top to bottom, and the possibility of Moniak being selected 1.1, what if Herrera was highly sought after by “buyers” at the trade deadline? Would you?

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  26. Not again why would we trade him he’s a huge upside at 24 . Like Romus said unless it’s a number 1 or 2 pitcher which you can’t get with a CF. You the for most part unless it’s a salary dump or you can’t afford the player . Teams trade the prospects Swanson, Newcombe etc . Moniak if they do draft him might take 3 to 5 yrs. Then you have to make a decision. Nobodies untouchable but the good teams have CF the bad teams are looking to drop salary. You want a Bruce , Braun, type they could be had.Phillies now have to develop there own prospects . Look at Boston you want a Betts , Bogaerts, Travis Shaw develop what we have now . Let’s not forget Medina, Paulino, Ortiz, Encarnacion all still have to play . Goeddel looking better every day, TJ getting his chance Hernandez has been warned he’s going to take Burriss spot.

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  27. I don’t understand the Herrera trade talk either. As a high on-base lead-off guy who plays a premium defensive position very well and is young and cheap, Herrera is the best thing the Phils have going for them among position players.

    If his success continues this year and he starts off strong in ’17, the Phils should sign him to a long-term deal.

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  30. I understand how easy it is to become attached to a good player. My only argument about the idea of trading a good player like Herrera is NOT because he’s a bad player. It’s because he IS a good player with value. YES he is cheap right now, but you have considerable outfield talent waiting in the wings. Herrera will have even more appeal to contending teams ESPECIALLY if he’s an all star. I’m not suggesting we give him away for a bag of balls. Teams like the Giants will look to bolster their already tenuous outfield now that Pence is back on the DL AGAIN. All I’m saying is hold loosely to a guy like Herrera before you induct him into the hall of fame. The Phillies WILL get calls inquiring about him. That’s what GMs do. Listen….

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  31. He is part of the future core, and you do not trade part of your core, especially the most important part of this new core.

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