2016 Draft Discussion, May 30th

The 2016 draft discussion continues here.  These discussions will be accessible under “The Draft” menu option “2016 Draft Discussions and Picks” for reference.

The First Year Player Draft (Rule 4 Draft) will begin on Thursday, June 9th.  I will provide Daily discussion pages for comments similar to last year.  I will also consolidate information on the Phillies’ selections in a draft tracker spread sheet just like last year.  In addition to player info, it will contain bonus information and signing dates.

I will update  as the information is released, leaked, or otherwise becomes available.  If you uncover any signing information, share it and I’ll update the tracker.

BA updated their Top 100 Draft Prospects on May 5th. The top six were –

  • #1 – A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida
  • #2 – Riley Pint, RHP, St. Thomas Aquinas HS, KA
  • #3 – Jason Groome, LHP, Barnegat HS, NJ
  • #4 – Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer
  • #5 – Nick Senzel, 3B, Tennessee
  • #6 – Corey Ray, OF, Louisville

Florida’s A.J. Puk went seven innings last Wednesday against LSU in the SEC tournament. He exited in the 8th inning after losing a 2-0 lead.  Florida would go on to lose in 14 innings. Puk would not pitch in the next 4 games as the Gators went on to lose the SEC title game to Texas A&M.

A.J. PUK 7.1 6 2 2 2 7 0 0 0 0 27 29 8 6

The junior left-hander finished the 2016 season 2-3, 2.93.  He had 83 strikeouts in 58.1 innings pitched, while limiting opponents to a .184 batting average. He also walked 29 batters.  Here are his full season stats.

A.J. PUK (2-3, 2.93) 13 0 58.1 39 24 19 29 83 7 0 5 .184 3 7 1

Riley Pint pitched his team to a win in the quarterfinal game of the state championships, 3-1.  He did not pitch in the final, but drove in the runs that put his team ahead to stay,late in the game, a 13-9 victory for the State 5A championship.

His previous accomplishments include a complete game one-hitter in the regional final and hitting 100 MPH with his fastball in game, in front of scouts.  In his first 35 innings pitched, Pint allowed 16 hits, three earned runs, 19 walks while striking out 65 with a record of 5-1 and an ERA of 0.25 ERA for the 16-4 Saints.

Jason Groome’s season ended when the Barnegat Bengals lost to top-seeded West Deptford, 2-1 in the South Jersey Group II quarterfinals last Thursday.  He struck out 12, walked 3, allowed 2 hits, and 2 runs (1 ER) in 6 innings.  His FB was at 94 mph.

Both runs scored in the bottom of the first inning.  With two out, an opposite field triple scored a runner from first.  An error on the play at third allowed the second run to score.

Groome finished the season with 90 strikeouts in 39.2 innings. He allowed 15 hits and five earned runs.

Kyle Lewis, Mercer: .395/.535/.731/1.266

61 G, 223 AB, 70 R, 88 H, 11 D, 2 T, 20 HR, 72 RBI, 66 BB, 7 HBP, 48 K, 5 SF, 6/11 SB

Nick Senzel, Tennessee: .352/.456/.595/1.051

57 G, 210 AB, 57 R, 74 H, 25 D, 1 T, 8 HR, 59 RBI, 40 BB, 4 HBP, 21 K, 5 SF, 25/29 SB

Corey Ray, Louisville: .320/.396/.575/.971

59 G, 247 AB, 54 R, 79 H, 16 D, 1 T, 15 HR, 58 RBI, 33 BB, 2 HBP, 36 K, 6 SF, 39/39 SB


326 thoughts on “2016 Draft Discussion, May 30th

  1. I’m starting to lean towards Puk, that is some serious swing and miss stuff from the left side. We really need a lefty in the rotation of the phuture, and he should be able to climb the system fairly quickly. If he’ll sign for under 6.5m count me in.

    1. Agree…if he can improve his control, not worried so much about command with his velo, he can be a top of the rotation guy.

      1. Let’s not forget some kind of pick off move to first, endurance he’s never pitched more then 78 ing in any one season. Has 1 complete games in 3 yrs , needs a more advance secondary pitches. Plus has to change delivery not this summer do to ings picked . Back spasms may pop .b at any time , doesn’t pitch well in day games . Yep should be up right around 2020 when the Phillies are going for a World series . Have 4 stud pitches ans a lefty who by then is 26 . That’s if there lucky and Tj doesn’t come up.

    2. I’ve seen it reported in a few places if Puk gets past the Phillies, the Reds will pick him at 1.2. That pretty much means Puk will never agree to less than 6.5 million. IMO, the Phillies would have to pay Puk 6.75 million.
      I think what it comes down to is:
      A. They pick Puk, save 2.25 million, and overpay whichever prep player gets past the Padres, Braves, Nationals, Reds,Cardinals, and Dogers (all teams with multiple selections before the Phillies at 42). Or
      B. Choose a player who will go well under slot (maybe 5 million). It would have to be a guy who could fall out of the top four (maybe Moniak?). That would save them 4 million dollars and would allow them to offer the guy they actually prefer (Ian Anderson,Matt Manning ???) as much as 5.5 million dollars. It would be virtually impossible for just about any other team to match that kind of money. In this scenario,(although unlikely) it’s not inconceivable that they could strike a deal with Riley Pint at 42 if he were to get past the first seven or eight picks. Keith Law’s latest mock has Pint to Detroit at #9. The slot for the 1.9 pick is roughly 3.5 million. That’s 2 million less than the Phillies could offer him at 2.42.

      The other thing they could do is use however much money they save at 1.1 to distribute more evenly throughout rounds 2 – 10. This way they could go with quantity over quality. In other words, at 2.42, they could select a guy for maybe a little over slot (U of S Carolina pitcher Braden Webb for 2 million ???). They could then start picking off prep players in each round who are falling because of signability concerns. They wouldn’t be top 30 guys, but you may be able to strike deals with four or five guys in the top 100 – 125.

      1. The Phillies should (and I think will) select whatever player they want most at 1:1. Otherwise, “the guy they actually prefer” is unlikely to be on the board at pick #42.

        1. Phillies may not get the first pick in the draft for another 15 years, so pick the best available.

          1. BobD….well. maybe after 2017….looks like next year they may have keen competition for the first pick.

            1. The Phils may get a top 10 pick in 2017, however I seriously doubt they fall to top pick or 2 after a hot start to season.

      2. Keith Law reported that the Phils were talking with 4 or 5 of the top guys and whoever is willing to sign at their price is who they’re going to take. Guess they have someone ear-marked at 2.1 for this to be the case?

        Of all the years to tank and get 1.1 – this is what we’re stuck with. It’s the most Phillies thing ever.

        1. Don’t know that they necessarily have someone in mind for 2.1. More likely they have multiple guys rated the same so they are looking to get the best deal with one of them to give them greater flexibility later.

  2. Look with puk Imo your buying a dynamite arm. But with any pitcher its a risk. injury. control is the big thing, But if he improves his control a little. You have a top of rotation arm. I saw that slider and fastball and fell in love with his potential. You have to take a chance with a lefty who can hit 97 with his stuff and has a good slider.

    1. rocco….I actually agree with you.
      What is puzzling to me is how Jay Groome seems to have fallen in the pundit’s eyes. For whatever reason I have no clue. One mock had him at the 8th pick. I figured no lower than four.

      1. That is the one thing I just don’t get. I’d still take him before Puk easy and I don’t see how he makes it past 3/4.

    2. Take a chance but people who say he’s a fast riser drives me crazy . He has 1 plus pitch right now that has to be more consistent with that slider and needs a third pitch . Plus he needs a alot of ings , VV who’s way more advanced couldn’t get out the 5th cause the Cubs are a good hitting FB team. Puk reminds me of Kilome great FB little else.

  3. Looking at the minor league system, the 2016 draft and early prospects for a 10-20 pick in 2017, they need a LHP power arm. Puk is my choice even with the pimples and warts.

  4. I think they will go Puk but i thought I read some things about Moniak and being a favorite of Gillick.

  5. Sam if you watch that kid on tape Moniak looks like a really good prospect. Saw tape of him in game action. read about him. He is very interesting. I just don’t know long term who is the better pick. All I know is with puk, your seeing great arm, good stuff. against better competition

    1. HS does scare me…they have to get a stud out of this pick…just glad im not making the pick

  6. Still taking a HS bat, Moniak or Rutherford. Only other consideration is Groome if it has to be pitching. Still like Lewis but he scares me a little. Want nothing to do with Puk.

  7. High school pitchers are dropping as they are perceived as having alot more risk than a position player or college pitcher. From all I have read most pundits pick Puk as the Phils 1st choice and I some lean towards Moniac as a sleeper as he is thought to be the 5th pick or so ergo command less $$ and then Phils use their 42nd pick to get Gowdy or someone else with enticement of extra cash. With no real standout I would guess Puk is the safe choice due to arm side, size, and wipeout pitches. All in, I would imagine he would be a valuable pitcher in 3 years. But it is still no layup at picking first !

  8. A couple of Puk’s 2016 season stats kind of jump out.

    First, the 58 innings pitched (IP) in 13 starts. That’s an average of about 4-1/2 IP per start. Even throwing out the one start where Puk was removed in the 1st or 2nd inning due to a stomach ailment, that’s an average of less than 5 IP per start. That seems like a red flag to me.

    Second, the 29 BB in 58 IP. That’s 4-1/2 BB per 9 innings. Another red flag.

    The other numbers (SO and OBA) are very good, and he pitched against good competition in a top conference, but the two concerns identified above seem inconsistent with 1:1 pedigree.

  9. If you have an hour and 11 minutes, you may enjoy this Fangraphs podcast featuring Eric Longenhagen:


    Some cliff notes …

    * Phillies most likely to pick either or Puk or Moniak. Ray still in consideration.

    * As team meetings get underway, the Phillies may look into how much underslot some of the darkhorse candidates the they like might be willing to agree to in order for the Phillies to be able to “do a whole lot more in the draft”.

    * On Puk: “The back is an issue. He doesn’t finish out front consistently enough for me. The body is sort of weird. There just isn’t a lot of big league pitchers that look like this. People question the athleticism. He’s not someone I would pop 1.1, but we were saying the same things about Carlos Rodon the year he got drafted, and he looks fine now.”

    * On Moniak: “I think it’s the best hit tool in the whole draft. I put a future”7″ on the bat. It’s really, really good. He’s an above average runner, but doesn’t have a lot of physical projection to him. Guys like him don’t typically fill out and develop any power, but that’s also good because he shouldn’t fill out to the point that he’d have to move out of CF. 40 power, 55 speed. He has rare hitter traits. He has natural timing and the ability to adjust with his hips and his feet while the pitch is in the air. These are things that Nomar Mazara, Joey Votto, and Miguel Cabrera do.”

    1. Holy molly Cabrera , Votto, Mazara, I see batting title MVP, Batting title, Gloden Glove . Hmm a well known sports writer saying things I’ve saying Puk bad body, back issue , I wonder how many hs pitchers have pitched 58.1 ings yr. I wonder how many have avg 4.23 ings a start. Could Puk be a Boras client ? Moniak grandfather played in mlb also Moniak also holds the Socal record for triple’s with 12 . This draft is heavy in hs arms there, s no reason Phillies can’t land a hs arm at 2 . Moniak might be like C a fast riser .

    2. Wow. If that report is even close to accurate about Moniak, the decision is a no-brainer in my opinion. If he has that kind of hit tool, I can easily accept the lack of power and “meh” other tools (speed and arm). He is also reported to have a very good glove at a premium defensive position (CF). Me likey.

  10. The more I read, the less I like Puk and the more I like Moniak. I don’t like the idea of drafting a guy first if he signs under-slot so they can get another guy later who they go over-slot for. Don’t over-think this. It’s the first pick in the draft. It should be as close to a dead lock cinch that they draft a guy who ends up being a major league contributor or even a star.
    Of course, that’s just one guy’s opinion. I truly enjoy reading the opinions of others here.

    1. ” I don’t like the idea of drafting a guy first if he signs under-slot so they can get another guy later who they go over-slot for.” …. I respect your opinion, and you’re not the only person I’ve read say this same thing. But, honestly, I don’t understand why people are so against going under slot at 1.1 to go for a big time over slot deal at 2.42. There is no slam dunk superstar available this draft. In addition this strategy has worked with great success in the past and will be used by other teams in this draft. In 2012, the Astros went under slot for Carlos Correa.and were able to afford Lance McCullers with their next pick. In 2014, the Cubs struck an under slot deal with Kyle Schwarber and saved money to pick Carson Sands, Justin Steele, and Dylan Cease in the 4th, 5th, and 6th rounds.

      1. Poor comp with Correa as he’s still a superstar. Yes they passed on Buxton, but they didn’t pass on Buxton for some stiff.

        1. It’s actually a good comparison because nobody knew for sure Correa was going to be this good in 2012. MLB.com had Correa ranked the #5 prospect in that draft. Schwarber was the 16th ranked prospect for the 2014 draft. The point is: in this year’s draft, anyone of a group of players can be the best future MLB player. If the Phillies can’t project Puk, or Lewis, or Groome, or Moniak, etc as the clear favorite, why not go with the guy who will take the most team friendly deal and double down with other prospect/prospects at 2.42 and beyond ?

  11. Son-of-a-gun! The stats for the college hitters are wrong. I had problems with the ‘net last night and thought I had corrected them after I got back on line. Live poker on TV for 8 hours was also a distraction. I’ll make the corrections tonight. (Update: corrected)

  12. The worst that could happen is that the one you choose (Puk or Groome) develops an injury or just flat out fails while the other becomes Kershaw. If Puk hits 97 and Groome 94 at age 18, I wonder if there isn’t 3 more mph in tge next 3 years? I like Groomes delivery, but we’ll have to assume they will make the right pick. They will as others have noted, likely need a dominant lefty to complement the strong righthanded talent they have. They might as well shoot fir 3 in hopes of getting one. Any Steve Carltons out there for one of the phillies Rick Wises?

    1. Not really. Still the same risk concern about a high school arm, maybe even more so with Pint due to his more violent delivery (relative to Groome).

  13. Puk scares me and i dont think any of the college hitters are #1 worthy, so its Groome, Moniak or Rutherford for me. Moniak and Rutherford so similar but i guess Moniak gets the nod due to being a year younger, though i do get the feeling from reading about Rutherford that he’d respond well to the pressure of being the #1 pick, not that Moniak doesnt. and Groome just seems to have all the tools you want- i’ll wait the year and half extra he might take compared to Puk.
    They could get any of these guys at 6.5 or less, then go up to 4.7 at #42 and still go full slot at all their other spots, so just pick the guy you want at #1.

    1. Agree with the last sentence. Don’t get too cute at 1:1 trying to maximize bonus pool savings; pick the guy you want most and go from there.

  14. It’s always been Groome but the Phillies seem scared . I can’t understand Groome went right to the Reporters after he was hit hard and did a charity event in front of everyone against one of the top teams In nj. Puk hasn’t done an interview as far as I know. Maybe his reps don’t want him too . Question how’s your back Puk aaaahhhh mmm no comment.

    1. Dude, I know you like Groome, which is fine. But somehow I doubt that the interviews Groome and Puk have or have not granted will be much of a factor for the Phillies (or any team for that matter).

      For the record, I hope the Phillies avoid Puk as well. Just too many questions for me, between the control issues, the inconsistency, and the back problem. While I too prefer Groome over Puk, as of right now the guy I hope the Phillies draft is Moniak.

    2. So you’re inclined to pick Groome b/c he spoke to the press immediately after a game?? Am I reading that right or has something been lost in translation?

  15. If it’s an arm, I want Groome. Too much upside despite the risks. Plus no college arm stands out. Puk has been too erratic when he should be more consistent at this point.

    Bat? I am more excited about Moniak.

    …..I’m good with either pick.

  16. Mercer didn’t make the CWS the ACC has a record 10 teams so much Sec as the best confence.Maimi of the Acc torn Puk up this yr he lasted 2 ings.

  17. It sure doesn’t look like the Phillies will go Groome with 1.1. Would love to see them go with Moniak over Puk (and over the college bats) at 1.1 on an under slot deal. And if Groome is dropping like it appears he is, I would love to see the Phillies work out an above slot deal with him (or with Manning) at 2.1. That would be my ideal draft scenario. Moniak and Groome, two of the best and youngest players in the draft – that would be pretty exciting to see them moving through the system together. Make it happen Phillies!!

    1. true, if moniak takes 6 at #1 they could spend over 5 at 2.42, which is close to the 4th pick slot value. like that idea.

  18. This weekly draft discussion is getting too loony for me to even comment on. I may need to take a break until after the draft.

    Sorry everyone….its been AJ Puk with the 1:1 pick for over a month now. I told you guys that over a month ago when everyone had Jason Groome fever because he lives close by and you read about him in the Daily News. And now theres Mickey Moniak fever because someone reported Pat Gillick went to one of his games and this guy Tim posts incessantly about him.

    Its an echo chamber in here….the same 3 people post incessantly about Moniak until everyone is convinced he is the guy. Its pretty funny actually.

    As far as Puk goes, a few things:

    1. He will not command more than $7 million bonus at the maximum (more likely about $6.5) so he is going to be well underslot no matter what and there will be plenty to spend on the 42 pick

    2. His workload has been questioned in here but I will take the opposite viewpoint as Tim (surprise surprise). With all of the arm abuse and over-pitching that goes on in college, shouldn’t we be happy to know Puk’s arm has not gone through that? And the less innings he throws in college the more he can throw this summer in Lakewood or Clearwater before being shut down to save his arm.

    3. His command is an issue right now, that cant be argued. Too many walks. But we are talking about a guy that a lefty with a fastball/slider combo that struck out 83 in 59 innings in the SEC, the best college baseball league in the country. He has faced the best competition in college and succeeded and is ready to jump straight to Clearwater (probably).

    I know everyone has their favorite guy, but the trashing of Puk on this board as a way to make a case for Moniak or Groome is both mis-guided and laughable. Puk is being severely underrated right now…

    1. Look, I’m no draft expert – it’s one of the areas where I know the least. I also know that lefties with electric starting stuff have probably the highest upside of all pitchers, so with Puk, I get it. That said, I have huge concerns about his control and command. Command isn’t a small thing – with pitchers, sooner or later, command or at least advanced control is an essential element to success. The problem is that most guys with a scatter arm do not develop fine command. Sure there are some historical exceptions (Koufax, Randy Johnson), but most guys with control problems never fix their issues and either don’t make it or settle into relief roles, which diminishes their value. So, unless you, as the team drafting, feel highly confident that the control/command issues can easily be resolved, it’s a very big gamble to take that player 1/1. In addition, Johnny Almaraz is a proponent of this theory – he is on record that he does not think that control/command can usually be taught. He’s not the only voice in the room, but he’s a strong voice so I don’t see them drafting him unless they are fairly convinced they can fix his control problems. Who do they draft in his place? Truly, I have no idea.

      1. I was thinking about Almaraz’s comments too. In addition to saying “command can’t be taught” (which I 100% agree with) he has also said hit tool is most important offensive tool for a position player. It also can’t be taught. If Moniak truly has a 70 hit projection along with 55 speed and 60 defense, then he has to be your pick.

        1. v1…tend to lean Moniak also….today..as for three days from now…who knows.
          If Puk comes out Friday and pitches a no-hitter with 15 Ks vs B-C, my opinion may change once again.

          1. Puk’s BB/9 over his college careers:

            If you weight performance of 7 innings over 184 prior innings, then you are making a big mistake. He is who he is. He has a 70 grade fastball, but control issues.

            1. v1…yes aware…that’s the point…by the numbers its a red-flag.
              Unfortunately, candidates for 2016 1.1 have risk…minimizing the risk is a difficulty undertaking. Moniak would seem to be the safer pick. And go with an arm at 42

      2. good thoughts. i went through the last 10 years of drafts looking for a college pitcher drafted near the top 10 with a similar walk rate to Puk. I couldnt find anyy as high as him. Of those walking more than 1 every 3ip that i found, Matt Harvey was the success story- his rate suddenly dropped when he pitched his first full major league season in 2013. The rest of the guys, such as Alex White,Ross Detwiler, Daniel Moskos, Aaron Crow, well i dont need to say any more. And Carson Fulmer out of the ACC in last years draft has 34 walks in 46ip in AA this year.
        Randy Johnson led the league in walks 3 straight years before finally figuring it out at age 29 (man, his stats are something to look at). not so sure Philly could show that much patience.

        1. Randy Johnson was the 36th overall pick in 1985 – no one would draft him at the top of the draft because of his inconsistency. Great tools though and obviously turned out to be a superstar. But there was a lot of risk with that pick. And there is a lot of risk with Puk. Mid to bottom of the 1st round is more where I think Puk should be drafted. But it seems pretty clear he will go top 5 somewhere which is great for him. Just hoping its the Reds that step up and take the risk on him and not the Phillies.

    2. Puk or Moniak.
      IMO…..the safer pick may be Moniak, think Yelich, because he will hit and eventually the mid-level power will come. Rutherford is a worthy pick…but a year older than Moniak makes me think he is taking advantage of his age with younger HSers.
      Puk fills the need, but just too many red-flags with the control. but history suggests the majority of the greatest taller LHPs have had similar control issues early on in their careers. Groome has no control issues it appears, but that HS jinx is hard to get over.

    3. Tommy … you may be a bit bombastic, but you’re pretty knowledgeable about the draft. I liked Groome early, but have moved away from him for some time now. As I’ve stated many times, I love Quantrill. That said … I’d be OK with Puk based on his projection. I think he’ll demand slightly more the Dansby Swanson got last year (6.5 million). I can see him asking 6.75 million. However, if Mickey Moniak would agree to 5 million, I would draft him. Being able to offer #42 four million dollars is nice, but in a draft where so many teams have multiple early picks, that won’t guarantee you get the guy you want there. Being able to offer 5.5 million is a whole different story. I like Ian Anderson or Riley Pint at #42. A 5.5 million dollar offer plus a Vanderbilt (Ian Anderson) and LSU (Pint) scholarship offer “could” push one of those two pitchers to the Phillies at the 42nd pick.

      The other (cheaper) option for me at #42 is Braden Webb at slightly over slot because he still has three more years of eligibility at S Carolina. Who do you like at #42 ???

      BTW … Get a look at Braden Webb’s hammer curve here:

      1. If M. Manning is available at 42, I would seriously think of selecting him, especially if they do not go with a pitcher at 1.1..that is if a deal is already in place..

      2. And … for those who haven’t seen Mickey Moniak’s Willie Mays moment at last year’s Area Code Games:

    4. What’s laughable are your comments – no one is under rating Puk. He will no doubt be a top 5 pick. You like to talk about his Ks and conference and dismiss his other stats that don’t support your position. We get that you are in love with Puk but not every one agrees with you. Why bash others that like Groome or Moniak as much as you like Puk?

    5. http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-draft-4-0/#XD7SS3oj5Ebl2QUd.97 here ‘s the link from BA about Moniak going 1.1 and Gillick liking him. Perfect game has K Lewis going 1.1 in there last draft. JOHN MANUEL HEARD Moniak going 1.1 for the 10 days. Fangraphs Eric LongenHagen has said ” I won’t pop Puk At 1.1 plus he said he has back issue’s. He does say Moniak hit tool is a 70 and he does things like ” Votto and Cabrera ” ,Read it in the Kinkie above post. So Puk hasn’t been 1.1 for the LAST MON. There’s more out there then K law . Puk has 4 starts that he didn’t Last long , back spasms 2 hitters , Stomach bug 2 ings , Miami 2 ings they hit him and dehydration . He has 65 ings right now his high is 78 . He still has the CWS so he could be at 100 by the end. He avg is 4.23 ings per start do the math. The Acc has some of the best college bats this yr Collins etc. They also also have 10 teams in the CWS. I don’t trash Puk to get play on Moniak Getting enough good written about him he doesn’t need the help. THE PHILLIES Drafted “C” last yr based on a very good hit too. He wasn’t rated in anyone’s top 10. Moniak has a 70 hit tool about the same as C .

  19. I know this shouldn’t hold a ton of weight, but when is Puk’s next start? I see UF got the 1 seed.

  20. I don’t think Puk is underrated at all. I think, by everyone’s rankings he is a top 5 Pick. But acting like people who like Groome are idiots and only like him because he is local is wrong. His stuff, his demeanor and his upside are high. If he goes 3 to the Braves, how dumb is it that people like him for the Phils? We are not rooting for a 12th Rd pick to go 1.1. You are still looking at a top prospect. Like Puk all you want, but control is the name of the game and he does not have it. I don’t want him at all. I know nothing about Moniak except what I read, but he is in play because there are so few options. The people who loved Ray earlier have disappeared because he has the lowest ceiling of the top guys. None of us here have any scouting tools that I am aware of. I just think it is crazy to knock people for liking Groome who probably ends up in the Top 5 in favor of a guy who can’t throw strikes. We may all be wrong and none of these guys are any good, and the best player from the draft gets picked in the 3Rd Rd.

  21. The reports that I have read about Puk say he is not very athletic nor does he have an athlete’s body. That’s enough for me to look elsewhere at 1:1.

  22. It seems worth noting for Moniak that a 7 grade hit tool and a 4 grade power = a .300 hitter and 12 homers. I think some have overestimated what those grades reflect.

  23. Being that we’re talking about the Phillies in the 4th largest market, and the fact that they have the $$$$$$$$$, and that this draft has no single standout player, if they go with Moniak (who I like) instead of an arm like Groome (who I also like and not because he’s local – I couldn’t care less where he’s from, Gunner, that’s fine. I would rather go into the free agent market and get an established major league pitcher (or 2) at this time, instead of fishing for somebody who might wind up being 3 years away from being 3 years away.

    1. 8mark:
      ‘I would rather go into the free agent market and get an established major league pitcher (or 2) at this time’…who?

      I assume you want a legit #1 or #2….there should will be plenty mid-lower rotation players on the open market,
      One in Steven Strasburg was one of the best FAs…he is now off the market.
      I am not sure the Phillies will go that route with any FA pitcher that is not considered top of the rotation guy…unless it is a ‘one- year trade chip July’ signing..

    2. I don’t see how the draft and free agency are connected? Both are separate budgets.

      1. True. I’m not talking about what’s affordable. Everything is. It’s about what’s available and where.

        FO mantra is supposed to be “grow the arms and buy bats”. Right now I’m just thinking the opposite.

  24. I just dont understand the Phillies being out on groom because high school pitchers are risky when college pitcher with no control are just as risky. There is no better chance that Puk suddenly can throw strikes consistently than there is that Groome becomes a stud. The blind assumption that the Phillies fans are obsessed with Groome bc hes from NJ is so short sighted. I could not care less where hes from, all I care about is that he looks like the guy with the biggest chance to be a superstar. If Phillies are really out on him, I like Moniak. Just.No.Puk.

  25. 85 MILES PER HOUR FASTBALL. how do you judge that in terms of what he would do against sec pitching??? I don’t know. maybe you can help me understand.

    1. rocco…that is why some scouts have their doubts. But his bat is quick as reported, so that is a plus. And he still is considered a top 10 pick or 15, first round selection.

    2. He has also played quite well on the cape. Aren’t most of those players considered the top college players? It’s an issue sure, that his conference isn’t very good, but he’s not just putting up good numbers he’s putting up video game numbers.

    3. With regard to Lewis I’m not at all concerned with the velocity he sees in game. 95 once you see it enough is a pretty easy adjustment if you have bat speed and good hand/eye and you can also simulate that type of velocity in a cage by shortening the distance between the BP pitcher and the plate.

      What you can’t simulate is the benders and that’s what separates the little boys from the big boys.

      1. Dmar. The breaking ball is key thing too. But not all can adjust to the fastball. Its just a hard draft to predict. Lewis has other issue. Like his bat movement. I am not in love with him as much as Puk. Moniak .That kid Moniak goes to all fields. looks like he is a good defensive outfielder. But he is hs kid. Just no one is heads above anyone else. Puk if he had control would be a no brainer with is stuff. Lewis would be another if he put up these numbers in different conference.

        1. Lewis’ cape cod numbers calm my concerns and like Romulus says above he is not just putting up good numbers in his league he is flat out mashing that league.

          I like Moniak quite a bit too it would just be nice to know that you can project more size or power from his current frame. I like and can see the Yelich comparisons on him today.

          1. DMAR…….Moniak is the type who can flat out hit…ie Randolph…whether or not the Phillies want to corner the market on high level prospects that are LHB @corner OF positions (Williams, Randolph, Cozens and maybe Moniak) remains to be seen.

            1. He does look like a player who will flat out hit, but most of what I’ve read and heard is that he’s a dam good CF and will stay there where his bat definitely plays well.

          2. Does anyone have Lewis at 1.1?
            Seems most I have seen , have him varied in the top ten, but after usually the 4th pick

            1. Winks likes Lewis alot he would pick him out of the 3. I read an article were there were 5 baseball man 3 GM 2 scouts asked who’d they take Lewis, Moniak or Puk 3 said Lewis , 1 moniak , 1 puk. Power is the one that’s in high demand . Me I’m taking Moniak if I want power I can too see if Will Craig from Wake falls or Kieboom or trade for Jay Bruce. Funny too they forked out 5 mil for Ortiz .

    1. Big difference biddle , Biddle wasn’t facing acc caliber players. I have seen the public league. It nothing to brag about.

      1. I would say they are more familiar than you think. When Biddle was 20 years old he was playing at Clearwater. I would say that is a fairly reasonable comparison as far as competition goes with Biddle probably facing the tougher competition. Biddle walked almost 3.5 batters an inning also very comparable to Puk’s 4bb’s per inning. The biggest difference is that Biddle threw a good breaking ball while Puk throws a good fastball. They both have major control/command issues they both have strikeout stuff when they are on point. I’m not a scout and don’t pretend to be but just from the numbers I’m not impressed. Puk has a great fastball slider combo but how great is it if he can’t find the plate. Maybe it’s as simple as not trying to throw so hard but then again if he’s not hitting high 90’s with his fastball is he that much better than Groome.

        1. Scouting report on biddle at Clearwater was in was 90-92 this kid is 97. before he gets major league instructions. Look I Am not a scout either. But the stuff that kid has. you imo have to take the shot. You cant find kids with that kind of arm. If they can work on his control. you got a ace. If not worst case you got a bullpen arm. maybe a Andrew miller type. That’s more sure then the other kids. If there were all these red flags. Why is it if puk doesn’t go to us cinn. is taking him. That to me just shows teams want this kid.

          1. rocco…looks like SEC Pitcher of the Year Logan Shore will be the opening game starter on Friday night. Shore will have pitched just 3 1/3 innings in 16 days entering the start of the regional on Friday…so Puk more then likely, gets the ball the second game….which could be a tough foe like Georgia Tech or UConn.

          2. They passed on a kid who threw harder than Puk in the rule 5 draft this year (I’m not sure of his name I think St. Louis left him unprotected maybe another team). Granted it’s not the same situation I just think throwing 97 as a lefty with little control will not take him to the majors. He very well might be able to be taught control by the Phillies staff but that’s easier said than done ask Ammount or Tirado or the plethora of other prospects who can’t seem to get their control under control. I hope that AJ Puk gains better control throughout his career and becomes a successful MLB player but I don’t think it is a high probability let alone him becoming an ace. I wish him the best.

  26. i’m probably in the minority but I still want the Phils to draft Groome — who is dropping for some reasons that i don’t know. Phils can take advantage of this situation and sign groome underslot. if pint falls too, Phils should try to talk to Pint’s camp and if they can sign him overslot at 42. This can be a dynamic 1-2 punch at the top of the staff. Cal Quantrill is another prospect that the Phils can consider at 42 for over slot.

    For the bats, I’m still on the side of buying (Phils have the $$) power bats to compliment Doobie (CF), Franco (3B), Nick (LF/RF), JPC (SS) and possibly any of Alfaro, Knapp, Cozens and hopefully Hoskins.

    1. KuKo….doing the math.
      If Groome decides to sign at a bargain price $5.5M…that is $3.5M below slot.
      The 42nd is $1.5M plus 3.5M….if they are going all out for the 42nd…$5M total, then Pint will have to fall below the 4th pick…Rockies at $5.3M.
      All hinges on what Groome deems reasonable for him to sign at.
      I cannot see Groome signing for less than the 42nd pick…so approx. 5.5M is the lowest he would go down to It is a possibility.

      1. @Romus – yes, if my assumption will happen both Groome and Pint will be signed for the a total of $10.5M (or the Phils can kick another $500k – $6M Groome and $5M Pint – sign some college prospects underslot).

        i think the Phils can sign Groome anywhere in $5M to $6.5M range. The Pint falling out of Top 8 (which is at least $3.6M guaranteed bonus) is probably likely less to happen and if it happens, then my theory becomes moot.

        so basically my proposed draft strategy is to draft Groome (his delivery is key to me – no effort less prone to injury – the stuff and physicality are already there) below slot at $5-6M, then see if they can sign any of the top HS kids overslot at 42. Pint is my preference if he slides down, but i can be any of the top HS kids.

      2. they also have another 670k to play with since you go up to 5% over on their 13.4 million total pool. draft a 10th rounder that you pay 10k and you get another 150k.

    2. Great minds think alike !!!
      Earlier, I mentioned if Moniak (or any other bat the Phillies like) were to agree to 5 million dollars, the Phillies could manipulate the draft to get almost any prep arm they want at #42. I like Pint or Ian Anderson. The Phillies could promise either of these guys between 5 – 5.5 million dollars. That’s 1.4 money. Keith Law’s mock 2.0 has Pint to the Tigers at 1.9 and Anderson to the Yankees at 1.18.

      I don’t think they’d be able to get Groome down to 2.42. I’ve read that the Braves will take him at 1.3. As a matter of fact, I read one of the reasons the Braves traded for Baltimore’s comp pick (and the 850 thousand dollars that came with it) was to help overpay for Groome.

  27. Wouldn’t it be awesome if Philly was somehow able to get Moniak at 1.1 for 5.5 Million and then Groome at 2.1 for 5.5 million. I know it’s a pipe dream but it’s my pipe dream.

      1. I imagine they would too. I just thought it would be an awesome situation if it happened. If Groome really wanted to come to Philly I would imagine they would try to get him at 2.1 and ask him to tell other teams he won’t sign if drafted kinda like a Daz Cameron situation last year. Daz signed for 4 million which was more than the 5th overall pick slot value.

  28. Jim Salisbury reported (on the pregame show) the Phillies will begin draft meetings tomorrow. “In a perfect world, they would like to draft a pitcher. ‘Grow the arms, buy the bats.’ But it’s not a perfect world. Maybe they go over slot for a pitcher at #42”.

    1. Boy read the in between message in that statement. Hinkie any why you can post 2015 last Mock of K LAW.

      1. http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/insider/post?id=2730

        1. Philadelphia Phillies A.J. Puk, LHP
        2. Cincinnati Reds Kyle Lewis, OF
        3. Atlanta Braves Jason Groome, LHP
        4. Colorado Rockies Mickey Moniak, OF
        5. Milwaukee Brewers Delvin Perez, SS
        6. Oakland Athletics Nick Senzel, 3B
        7. Miami Marlins Braxton Garrett, LHP
        8. San Diego Padres Matt Manning, RHP
        9. Detroit Tigers Riley Pint, RHP
        10. Chicago White Sox Blake Rutherford, OF
        11. Seattle Mariners Corey Ray, OF
        12. Boston Red Sox Nolan Jones, SS
        13. Tampa Bay Rays Dakota Hudson, RHP
        14. Cleveland Indians Justin Dunn, RHP
        15. Minnesota Twins Kyle Muller, LHP
        16. Los Angeles Angels Taylor Trammell, OF
        17. Houston Astros Cody Sedlock, RHP
        18. New York Yankees Ian Anderson, RHP
        19. New York Mets Zack Collins, C
        20. Los Angeles Dodgers Matt Thaiss, C
        21. Toronto Blue Jays Forrest Whitley, RHP
        22. Pittsburgh Pirates Zack Burdi, RHP
        23. St. Louis Cardinals Josh Lowe, 3B/RHP
        24. San Diego Padres Cal Quantrill, RHP
        25. San Diego Padres Dane Dunning, RHP
        26. Chicago White Sox Gavin Lux, SS
        27. Baltimore Orioles Alex Kirilloff, OF
        28. Washington Nationals Drew Mendoza, SS
        29. Washington Nationals Robert Tyler, RHP
        30. Texas Rangers Bryan Reynolds, OF
        31. New York Mets Anthony Kay, LHP
        32. Los Angeles Dodgers Jordan Sheffield, RHP
        33. St. Louis Cardinals Eric Lauer, LHP
        34. St. Louis Cardinals Carter Kieboom, 3B

        1. Just noticed you asked for final 2015 mock:

          Keith Law mock 4.0

          1. Arizona Dansby Swanson
          2 Houston Alex Bregman
          3. Colorado Brendan Rodgers
          4. Texas Trenton Clark
          5. Houston Andrew Benintendi
          6. Minnesota Dillon Tate
          7. Boston Ian Happ
          8. White Sox Carson Fulmer
          9. Cubs Tyler Jay
          10. Phillies Kyle Tucker
          11. Reds Kevin Newman
          12. Marlins James Kaprielian
          13. Rays Walker Buehler
          14. Braves Tyler Stephenson
          15. Brewers Garrett Whitley
          16. Yankees “C” Randolph
          17. Indians John Harris
          18. Giants Nick Plummer
          19. Pirates Mike Nikorak
          20. A’s Kyle Funkhouser
          21. Royals Kolby Allard
          22. Tigers Donny Everett
          23. Cardinals Nate Kirby
          24. Dodgers Jacob Nix
          25. Orioles Ke’Bryan Hayes
          26. Angels Scott Kingery
          27. Rockies Tyler Nevin
          28. Braves Ashe Russell
          29. Blue Jays Eric Jenkins
          30. Yankees DJ Stewart

          1. Ty buddy confirms What I thought nobody has C that high last yr. He was in the 15 to 25 slots. Phillies actually might have drafted 2 future stud starters that weren’t regarded as high as they might turn out. C and Crawford says alot for the hit tool.Kingery high there too he droped to second rd.

  29. If the Phils take a hitter that is one thing, if they pick a pitcher I really don’t consider Puk better than Groome. Groome just seems to have a higher upside with a bit more risk. Puk is not a bad choice but trying to hit a home run with Groome is too exciting at least for me to pass on for Puk.

  30. If Moniak=Yelich and Lewis=J. Upton who would you take? In my opinion Yelich is probably Moniak’s floor and J. Upton is probably Lewis’ ceiling but curious to see what others think.

    1. Christian Yelich is not Moniak’s floor. His floor is a high school hitter that is unsuccessful in pro ball and is out of baseball in 5 years. How can you put that kind of floor on a high school player? More like Christian Yelich is his ceiling

      1. It’s simple really I’m bullish on Moniak based on the scouting consensus of his hit tool. That by itself doesn’t make me right and you wrong but if you don’t conjecture from the video and the write ups a Yelich floor how can he be seen as a top 10 pick.

        Additionally how can an opinion be wrong? I’m simply giving mine fair enough if you disagree.

  31. If you want to get a sense of what a 70 hit, 55 speed, 40 power, 60 defense profile looks like, then look no further than what Odubel Herrera is doing this year, as he is on pace to have one of the best seasons in Phillies history.

    As a 23yo rookie he put up a 4 win season. This year he is nearly in pace for a 7 win season. Folks, if that isn’t good enough for you out of 1:1, then your expectations are too high. That is an awesome profile.

    I am not a scout, but if that is Moniak’s expected profile, then it is an easy decision.

  32. As a result of their current 5 game losing streak, the Phillies are now up to pick 1.14 for the 2017 draft. They still have the 5th worst run differential, so there’s hope for an even higher pick, yet !!!

    1. I guess, if you are one who is interested in a top of the line FA signing next off-season…then a top ten protected selection is what you want to shoot for.

  33. Noooo a never ending rebuild really his draft should be the last step in the rebuild other then waiting for the younger players in A+, AA and AAA to come up. Start filling in the holes with FA and taking a run at the Pennant . The pitching is close the hitting they have 3rd , CF maybe RF still looking for 1st TJ 2nd ? SS soon LF coming . This team really isn’t that bad with a few bats it will be 500 or better.the poor young pitching staff is are working hard . Hope the Phillies wouldn’t let the minor league sys get this void of again. He really don’t have any big ticket trade chips.

    1. ‘He really don’t have any big ticket trade chips’…what say you, Odubel Herrera in the off-season prior to 2017
      ….IMO, Quinn is who they want to take over CF eventually, say mid-2017….and 2B then can be an option for OH, but it appears they want Kingery to compete for that, and that may be in 2018.

      1. Plus I just looked at Quinn numbers 23.8 rate. He has more k’s this yr now then all of last yr with almost 100 less atbats. This is his second time though the league so let’s see . He not young anymore just inexperienced do to Injuries.

        1. Yeah he just turned 23 in may. We should release him he is too old for reading. The kid is been hurt a lot. Still learning the game. 1200 at bats is three full minor league season or less.

          1. Look to me at 23 he is still doing a good job considering what phillies have took him through I dnt see no other propects learning to switch hit and moved from one position to another. He gave been injury through season by who haven’t I think he is still performing

            1. Look to me at 23 he is still doing a good job considering what phillies have took him through I dnt see no other propects learning to switch hit and moved from one position to another. He have been injury through season but who haven’t I think he is still performing

          2. Not saying he was old for the league that was my pt. He was injured so much he missed alot of time . He needs 2 more yrs down on the farm. Romus already had him elected starting CF in 2018 over Herrera already a little much don’t you think.Herrera we mite have a future golden Glove and batting Champ in Quinn we have prospect.we trade Quinn if we have too no way we Herrera . Plus Roccom Quinn only .257 in Clearwater so according to you he’s not a prospect lol.

            1. In a fantasy world, I would only trade Herrera if he brought back value….to start, a top of the rotation young pitcher.
              But since there are relatively precious few of them, and the fact a limited amount of teams needing CFers, then the likelihood of it ever being done is remote. Would Billy Beane trade Sonny Gray for Herrera? Or Williams/Hahn and the Whites Sox for Rodon or Fullmer? Probably not.

            2. Tim I think this is my last answer to your stupid remarks. Putting words in my mouth. Roman Quinn hitting 257, Is like you taking my quote out of context. When I said{-Right now} he is not a good prospect you skip right now and put not a good prospect. I looked UP two years of 250, and yes I don’t like guys who are 250 hitters in the minors. career wise. anyone developing can hit 250 for a season. You feel to mention he hit 250 at two different stops. in two season. Red flag to me. But he could turn it around. He seems to have. but I still have my doubts. So lets see you make one point that makes sense. Come on and have the balls to make the statements I have. and back it up. Like I am all in with puk . if he fails and they draft him I am on record as he was my pick. your picks for record are groome .lewis. moniak. and more. Think you got the balls to mention one guy and stick. so anything you say in response to me will go silent. You just don’t know the game, not a clue imo

  34. Can I waffle some more…meaning the more I study Senzel the more I would be ok with him too. In no particular order



    1. DMAR….Matt Klentak has a special chair for you at the conference table in the WAR room.

  35. No way Herrera way you better then Quinn right now . Quinn has to go threw AAA and 500 at bats In a season . Herrera by that time mite be a 2 time all star and Gloden Glove maybe the best leadoff man in baseball . Crawford will already be up they might trade Quinn . Big trade chip is a Hamels , Cliff Lee ,Doc . We don’t want a 10 yr rebuild plan I think are shooting for 2018 . They didn’t trade for now pitchers like VV , Thompson, Eflin, etc. They really moving prospects up fast Crawford , Williams etc , are the next wave . Even Alfaro , Knapp aren’t far away within the next yr.

    1. If Doobie continues the way he is playing for this season…what do you think his return value is? What do you think another MLB GM would give up to get him?

      A top of the rotation pitching prospect? Not sure how many teams would need a starting CFer, but their number one pitching prospect along with another prospect could be an attractive return.

      1. Well ok then put Crawford in there along with Nola , Franco, Williams, VV, what could they fetch? The Phillies Need 9 starting postion trust me Herrera one them. QUINN a AA prospect until he proves he can healthy for a full season plus he has – 1 plus tool he maybe a .250 in the Majors plus 170 pds. What I’m trying to sayPhillies not move a player a good as Herrera unless Quinn hitting 330 and has 10 hrs etc . The veteran major are done. PHILLIES didn’t trade players and Develop Herrera so they trade them for players that maybe mlb players . Phillies will use that Comcast money on whatever they need once the core make it up . There not a 10 yr rebuilding program. Your a smart baseball man I think your the only who wants Herrera traded .

        1. Be realistic.
          Trading Crawford?….he is going to be the ‘Derek Jeter’ of this team…the leader, at the most coveted of positions…he could be a generational player..
          Herrera is situated in a future surplus of major league ready OF prospects.
          Quinn may not be the player they project…..it is about risk/reward.
          Like I said, if he brings back that #1/2 pitcher, then I would seriously think about it.

          1. Herrera better then any CF either Offense or defense right they have he is excelling on the ML level . His ceiling is Cargo batting title golden glove etc . He walking at a record pace. Right now Toro the bull is the leader by example you want walks ok you want hits ok you want power ok u want d ok.

    2. Don’t let this season’s hot start fool you. This team won’t be competing for a World Series until 2019. The difference in talent between the real good teams (Cubs, Nationals, Red Sox, Pirates, etc) and the Phillies is vast. Those teams still have some really good prospects as well. I think they’ll hit the 2018 FA class hard. I can see them targeting Manny Machado (if he makes it to FA) because of the MacPhail/Klentak ties to the Orioles. I’m praying the Phillies can be real players for Shohei Otani when he’s posted (hopefully in the next two or three years). Next year’s draft is supposed to be star studded. This unexpected winning is fun, but I’d be fine with one more top five or six draft pick (especially in a really good draft).

      1. If Matt Klentak is any disciple of Theo…then the pick may be Moniak.
        Since Theo has been a Cub….he has never picked a pitcher higher then 41st in any of his four drafts, ’12 thru ’15….instead willing to draft position players as the first choice in their first round, and do his thing with pitchers along the lines of the Arrietas and Lesters of the world.
        And so far it seems to be working just fine for them.

        1. @romus – i don’t disagree. the scouting team really did a good job in evaluating the potential of the bats they drafted. But it applies the same too if the scouts are right about the arms that were drafted early. To me, whether you draft bats or arms — it doesn’t matter as long as your scouts are correct in their evaluation.

          but for economics – there’s a big gap between a FA bat vs FA arm – considering the $$ (Price, Greinke, even Happ!, etc) and trade value (i.e. Cole Hamels, Shelby Miller, etc)– IMO pitchers provide more value.

          if i’m the FO, i will stack my farm with arms (and create savings $$ for having rotation earning less) and use the extra arms in my farm to trade for bats (i.e. Shelby Miller, Hamels, etc) and use the $$ to buy more bats!!!

          1. KuKo….I believe their philosophy was first bats, then pitchers..at least for the first four years. When you have the 6th, 2nd, 4th and 8th picks four consecutive years…..there were pitchers, considered still high end prospects seated on the board. It must have been their plan to go with the bats first in their rebuild.
            And granted the price gap is big between FA- P and FA-B….but they have plenty of money.
            Now looking at what Klentak did in the Giles trade….he appears to be leaning like you are….stacking arms in the system, be it a majority of RHPs right now.

            1. i have to say that I trust the current scounting team vs the Wolever time. I think they’ll get it right in regarless who they drafted. i like almaraz philosophy of drafting batters with hit tool and pitchers with command. i’m confident that a lot of their moves will pan out.

              the thing that i’m waiting for the FO to do is use their financial muscle in the international market.

            2. Agree there……and wish MK will make some moves to acquire additional international slot money from penalized teams, who cannot use all of their allocation, or even something akin to Atlanta’s creativity in obtaining a Comp Bal pick.

      2. Note there getting bet but not killed by the nats and Cubs .Phillies are still better then The Braves , Pardes, Reds , Brewers , etc . The Mets
        Could be in big trouble there older in the O and D lost Dude and wright . There pitching not all there Harvey etc . Goebbel only going to get better with Franco and Tj Asche shroud help.

  36. Curious if anyone has evaluated Puk from an analytics perspective? We have been told that this is an important new tool in the toolbox for FO. How does he measure up?

  37. Okay. Pls copy this, like some people do when I post. Based on the limited info I have on couple other players , like Senzel. I would take puk. Just too much arm and talent for me to pass on. If not him Moniak. would be my second choice. Watching film on him. He does look like he could be a nice player. What I read and have seen. Not a lot of power. But he is just 18. still time. I like that he uses the whole field when he hits. So if puk is a flop. I Will take the abuse. I just wouldn’t pass on that arm. not only the velo. size. the slider he has. I wouldn’t touch lewis. So if he is a superstar you can post I blew that one too.

    1. I read that post 5 times still have no Que what 250 means are talking about Quinn.? I been on Groome Train for a yr . The Phillies are not drafting him so I went to Moniak .I know you like Puk . No you can’t do anything with my balls unless you have a Dr in front of your name and a Medical Degree. Plus I put a LOL on the end of that post .. all I said was Quinn Needs more atbats down in Reading .

  38. In a little over a week we will be focusing on the chart waiting for Jim to update signings!

  39. Jayson Stark told Missanelli on 97.5 that he’s got the sense from rival teams that the Phillies are heavily in on Puk at this point.

    1. I suppose it fits into the “Grow the arms, buy the bats” philosophy Macphail and Klentak have championed. (Still rather have Groome, but I gave up on that a month ago). If Puk is the guy, the org has to believe his mechanical issues are correctable. Hopefully he’s more Carlos Rodon or Chris Sale than Appel.

          1. https://twitter.com/dougdirt24?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor here’s a tweeter saying if Puk drops to the Reds the will take him . That’s a chip for Puk we still don’t know his Rep Boras had to be in the top 5 somewhere. Not with Moniak or Groome . Interesting Stark and K Law from Espn still on Puk BA , etc out on Puk .medical records will be received this wk. Plus Puk interview will in The philly Inquirer tommorrow. First One I know off might tell who his reps are.

        1. rocco…..who would take the least to sign underslot…Puk or Moniak?
          IMO, Moniak may take a little less.
          Puk may go at $7M and Moniak could go between $6 and 6.5M.
          I wonder if the Phillies will use that as a selection criteria?

            1. I think Moniak will be cheaper by a million. Puk knows he goes to the Reds if not to Philly. Moniak could fall out of the top 5.

            2. If Moniak is so great like everyone in here says….future batting champion etc why would he fall out of top 5? And why is Puk almost definitely going at 2 to the Reds if he’s so risky? And what happened to Groome being the lock down #1 pick a month ago? Is it possible that most people on this board a) don’t know what they’re talking about, b) haven’t seen any of these guys play (or if they have, don’t really know what they’re looking at, and c) get easily swayed by a different article every day or by whoever posts the most or the loudest in here about certain players?

              The pick is AJ Puk. Its been obvious for a month. Sorry everyone….

            3. Tommy Gunn- I’m not a baseball scout and I don’t pretend to be. I read information and form an informed opinion.
              Moniak doesn’t seem like a 1.1 guy to me however I don’t think anyone in this draft class does. Puk is probably the better prospect currently however I don’t think there is much separation between the top 8ish guys in the draft. That being the case that I am assuming, I’d rather have Lewis, Moniak, Groome or Pint more than Puk. I say Moniak because of the hit tool (something that seems to be overlooked), it seems that he would sign for less and the fact that I think there will be a pitcher at 2.1 who has tor potential.
              I think Puk could be great and it is very possible that he becomes a legit ace. I also think it is very possible he never develops control and has a very short lived MLB career.
              Who knows what happens I just hope whoever the Phillies take turns out to be a stud.

  40. Murphy might want to think twice with Rupp and TJ around . I don’t think he’d make it too the mound.

    1. I have no idea what that means. Jim does such a good job of making this an articulate site for discussion. I think we as readers and posters owe it to each other to take the time to be coherent.

      1. If you mean me did you watch last night game? Murphy was hit by a pitch start yelling at the pitcher as he walked to first. Now does it make some sense now sorry but it like he was going to charge the mound.

    1. Tim, if you’re implying that Florida may have guys that are better pitching prospects that are better than Puk, its time to do us all a favor and stop posting in here. If you are going solely off of college stats than Thomas Eshelman is a better prospect than Puk right?

      1. Gunner, why do you think Groome dropped? Or was he really that highly regarded by evaluators in the first place?

        1. My opinion, and this is really just an educated guess, is that Groome was never seriously considered the #1 guy by you know, actual scouts and teams. I think writers put him there without realizing the actual concerns that teams had about him, and then as we got closer to the draft, more info came out that he wasn’t seriously considered an option for 1:1.

          Also, and I say this a lot on here (half-jokingly, but theres a grain of truth to it), people around here started seeing articles about the local kid and the local writers that aren’t really plugged into the MLB draft were saying he would be 1:1 and the average fan just ran with it.

          The other factor is the rather common occurrence of groupthink on this website. Whoever gets posted about the most/loudest all of a sudden becomes the guy that everyone wants. It happened with Groome, and now its happening with Moniak haha.

          The pick is Puk. When I say that repeatedly, I mean that’s who the Phillies are taking, not necessarily who I would take. I understand why they would take him #1. And I’m torn on who I want. I said it a few weeks ago and I stand by it….I’m torn between Kyle Lewis and AJ Puk. They are the only two guys I would take at #1 and I lean toward taking AJ Puk.

          Signing bonue demands does not play into to for me. Nobody is getting more than $6.5 or $7 million at 1:1. So you’re already starting with an extra $2 to $2.5 million bonus money to add to the $1.5 million you get for pick 42, plus whatever money you get from going underslot on other slots.

          So you have $3.5 to $4 million for the 42 pick regardless of who you take at 1. I just wouldn’t base my 1:1 pick on the fact that I may have an extra million or half million to spend if it means I take worse player at 1:1. You rarely get 1:1, I’d take who I want then deal with the excess amount I have to spend…

          1. A. Moniak @$6.5M or Puk@7M
            –Puk fills an immediate need by 2018
            –Moniak in 2020 could be a stud OFer with the hit tool.
            B. Number 42….IMO and if still on the board, someone like RHP Matt Manning…should be willing to sign for either $4 or 4.5 M.

            1. . With Cincinnati taking him at two? What would Cincinnati at two have to give him for that slot?? If its more than 7 then puk has the leverage to sign with them for more.

            2. rocco……Swanson last year signed at 76% of slot…I am only assuming Puk would also start at that percentage.
              Now lets take Cincy…..they have a $7.7M for 1.2, and a total $14M ….1.35 is $1.8M……so if they are going to ‘play’ the draft for a 1.35 overslot, then they will need their 1.2 to sign for less then $7M. If they only save .7M to add to 1.8M, then it totals 2.5M….equivalent to the Astros at 1.17.

              Bottom line…for their 1.35 to accept an attractive offering, the 1,2 should settle somewhere around 6.5M, giving them the opp to offer $3M for the 35th pick.

            3. roccom, here’s the slot values:

              1. Phillies: $9,015,000
              2. Reds: $7,762,900
              3. Braves: $6,510,800
              4. Rockies: $5,258,700
              5. Brewers: $4,382,200
              6. Athletics: $4,069,200
              7. Marlins: $3,756,300
              8. Padres: $3,630,900
              9. Tigers: $3,505,800
              10. White Sox: $3,380,600

              But heres what each guy got last year. The first number is the actual bonus they signed for. The second number is what the slot value was. So Dansby Swanson got $6.5 bonus even though the Diamonbacks had an $8.6 slot value for 1:1:

              1 ARI Dansby Swanson SS Vanderbilt $6,500,000 $8,616,900

              2 HOU Alex Bregman SS LSU $5,900,000 $7,420,100

              3 COL Brendan Rodgers SS Lake Mary HS (Fla.) $5,500,000 $6,223,300

              4 TEX Dillon Tate RHP UCSB $4,200,000 $5,026,500

              5 HOU Kyle Tucker OF H.B. Plant HS (Fla.) $4,000,000 $4,188,700

              6 MIN Tyler Jay LHP University of Illinois $3,889,500 $3,889,500

              7 BOS Andrew Benintendi OF Arkansas $3,590,400 $3,590,400

              8 CWS Carson Fulmer RHP Vanderbilt $3,470,600 $3,470,600

              9 CHC Ian Happ OF Cincinnati $3,000,000 $3,351,000

              10 PHI Cornelius Randolph SS Griffin HS (Ga.) $3,231,300 $3,231,300

              As you can see, no one got close to their slot until the 5th pick

              And once again, here’s the biggest bonuses ever handed out:

              Gerrit Cole, rhp Pirates, 2011 (No. 1) $8,000,000
              Stephen Strasburg, rhp Nationals, 2009 (No. 1) *$7,500,000
              Bubba Starling, of Royals, 2011 (No. 5) **$7,500,000
              Kris Bryant, 3b Cubs, 2013 (No. 2) $6,708,400
              Carlos Rodon, lhp White Sox, 2014 (No. 3) $6,582,000
              Dansby Swanson, SS Diamondbacks 2015 (No. 1) $6,500,000
              Jameson Taillon, rhp Pirates, 2010 (No. 2) $6,500,000
              Danny Hultzen, lhp Mariners, 2011 (No. 2) *$6,350,000
              Mark Appel, rhp Astros, 2013 (No. 1) $6,350,000

              Cole, Strasburg, and Starling bonuses were all handed out before the current slot value system was in place.

              After looking at this list, its extremely doubtful that Puk gets even $7 million bonus as 1:1. My guess is he get $6.6 or $6.75

            4. He could follow the Nola route and be up by July or August next year. But since he’s a different type of thrower, he’ll probably need a little more seasoning.

            5. So you actually think Puk will sign less then Swanson’s 2015 76% of slot?
              And at $6.6M that would equate to 73% of the Phillies 1.1
              That would be a real coup if that were to happen, and would set up the Philiies great for the 42nd.

        2. Groome dropped to 2nd on k Law new per draft list . You need 3 plus pitches and 1 mlb avg pitch to be an ace . There about 15 aces in mlb , Groome has a 70 grade Curve ball. That’s a plus pitch so there’s 1 his FB avg 91 94 tops out 97 with life 2 plus pitches . Now he needs the Change up he learned in Florida it may take so time. He also needs a avg 4th pitch which could anything.Now he’s “6”6″ 220 at 17 and has the best Delivery in the Draft that’s his meal ticket that will preserve his arm.His dad wouldn’t let him throw the Curve ball

          1. Wow ok that was crazy I just email the above post to a friend’s son. My screen froze and then unfroze and it pasted here .

  41. Tommy, I understand that you clearly know more about this than I do, and enjoy reading what you bring. But, I still don’t understand Puk as a 1.1. He has not been a great college Pitcher. He lacks command and control. I am not looking at stats, but if he is not the #1 SP on his College team, how good can he be? And, you have clearly stated that the Phils will take him. That does not mean that they are correct.

    1. matt13,

      to keep it really simple, I think Puk has the best combination of ceiling/floor/proximity. In its simplest form that’s why I think he’s the 1:1 no-brainer pick.

      His ceiling is ace/#1 starter and he’s one of only two pitchers in draft with that ceiling (along with Groome).

      His floor is a high impact reliever/or back end starter.

      He will likely be on the Aaron Nola advancement plan (or maybe a bit slower). He is potentially in majors in late 2017 or early 2018. Will almost definitely be in Clearwater in June/July this year.

      I don’t want to get into how great his fastball/slider combo is and his size versus his durability and command and all that because really, at this point, all the Puk supporters will focus on his strengths and all the Puk haters will focus on his weaknesses. Its just not a productive argument anymore. So I attempted to keep it simple above.

      1. Tommy that’s what I thought. Worst case he is Andrew miller type. Why don’t people understand your drafting on potential.

        1. And when you compare his floor versus his proximity, it shows the gap between him and say Groome even more. Groome is about 2-3 years years behind Puk in his development, with alleged makeup issues to boot. So along with the simple fact that there are 2-3 more years of potential arm injuries to get to where Puk is now, there is the simple fact that he is 2-3 behind Puk which means he has 2-3 more years to fail to get where Puk is now, then theres also the fact he may or may not have these makeup issues. In my book Groome just has way more potential to bust out. You cant even set a floor on Groome right now because really he may not make it out of AA.

          Now, of course the same thing could be said of Puk, or anyone that you draft. However, the difference in my opinion is that I’ve seen Puk wipe out SEC hitters and that makes me feel more confident. End of the day its all a crapshoot, but I’m going with Puk.

          1. I understand Tommy, and I appreciate your response. I don’t hate Puk and may very well be guilty of too much Groome praise. Your point of seeing Puk against a much higher level of competition is a very good one. A lot can happen in the 3 years Groome has to catch up to where Puk is now and most of them are bad. My last question on this topic, until the actual draft. If it was you, do you pick Puk or I of the hitters? I think you may have answered that somewhere but could not find it. Thanks

            1. I would choose Puk I think. I’m really torn between Puk and Kyle Lewis. I just think they are the two guys with the highest ceiling in the draft. Potential ace and potential big time power hitter.

              The problem with Lewis obviously is that he rarely faces top pitching. Except for Cape Cod League last summer and a few games early this year. He supposedly did hold his own in those games but this is where we as fans really have to bow down to scouts and take their word on these things. None of us have ever seen Lewis play, other than youtube clips and none of us saw his cape cod league at bats.

              On the other hand, I have seen 3 games that Puk pitched and I can look at his numbers in the SEC knowing he faced top level competition.

              End of the day, I wouldn’t be unhappy with either guy being drafted, but I;m leaning Puk. And even moreso, at the end of the day, whoever they pick is going to be a tremendous prospect and most likely the top guy in the farm system next year so I’m ready to root for whoever it is. And I do have a good amount of trust in this front office and feel they will make the right call….

  42. No doubt the noise right now is on Puk but that is counter intuitive to Almarez’s draft philosphy. We are 1 week away from finding out.

    1. DMAR….comes down to projection.
      IMO…Puk or Moniak are the two that appear to have the specific tools what the scouts find attractive…..Puk’s velo and whiff ratio and in Moniak’s case LHB hit tool.

  43. Jason Groome or AJ Puk will probably be the first pick since we have only one LH Starter at the AAA or MLB level. I would not be surprised if Groome was our selection as McPhail was in Chicago when the Cubs chose Kerry Wood in the first round.

    1. philabalt…..still not sure why Groome keeps falling down the board. The HS jinx theory is out there with only a select few making it….Beckett, Wood, Danks and few others as first rounders…..but his mechanics and his command are fluid and exceptional.
      But agree….in October when they said pitching was ‘thin’….everyone knew they were referring to lefty arms.

      1. Romus, I am not sure why Jason Groome keeps sliding down the draft board either. I will say that Puk looked very good against LSU in his last start but his defense let him down. The SEC Conference has high quality hitting and Aaron Nola came out very well prepared.

        1. @phil – same here. but as i mentioned in another thread yesterday, the Phils can take advantage of Groome’s situation. They can underslot him @ #1 and use the savings to go overslot @ 2.1 for prospects that’s fell (i’m hoping it’s Pint!) or another way is to sign Moniak underslot @ $6M range and talk to Groome that they will draft him @ 42 and sign for $4M to $5M.

  44. Drafting Puk will be the Phil’s way of saying they want to contend earlier than later. Barring any setbacks, we’ll see Puk in CLW in June and finish the year in REA. Start 2017 in REA then move to LHV in May/June and take the Nola highway to the Phils.

    So by August 2017, we might probably see the following:

    SP – Nola, Puk, VV, Eickhoff and Jake (with Appel, Eflin, Lively, Pivetta, Pinto and Morgan in AAA)
    RP – Asher, Cordero, Ramos, Windle, Obbie, veteran FA not yet in Phillies or possible Eickhoff and/or Appel (with Arano, Nunez and Milner are potential wildcards)
    Bench – Altherr, Knapp, Blanco, Sweeney (the flexibility of these players provide better depth) + LH power bat or Perkins or Goeddel
    C – Alfaro or Rupp (6)
    1B – Jospeph (until Hoskins is ready. I don’t see any FA signed) (7)
    2B – Galvis (until Kingery is ready) (8)
    3B – Franco (4)
    SS – JPC (2)
    LF – Doobie (3)
    CF – Quinn (1)
    RF – Williams (5)

    I will not be surprised if the Phils will trade Eickhoff or move him in the pen and insert Eflin. Appel and Pivetta might find themselves pitching in the bullpen before pitching fulltime as SP.

    Asche might survive the 2016 purge but the leash is really really short. The 2017 version may not win the wildcard and NL East but it will be way better than the current team.

    1. Interesting roster. I notice Cozens wasn’t mentioned. Windle? I thought he fell off the prospect map. I think Eflin is farther along than Jake but okay…..

      My lineup with your mix –

      With Cozens in RF, and let’s just say we trade Doobie:


      1. @8mark – i didn’t forget Cozens. He will be in AAA for most part next year. I will not be surprised if the FO will try him at 1B if Joseph is not the answer or Hoskins is not ready yet.

        Cozens will be with Kingery, Hoskins, Valentin and possible Alfaro or Knapp (if Rupp is kept) as the next wave of position players waiting in AAA in 2017.

    2. KK,

      I’d also like to see Herrera in left and Quinn in center. Williams in right if he can hit consistently. Maybe Altherr. Otherwise, Altherr and Gooddel as reserve outfielders.

  45. If the Phils sign 1:1 for $6.5 million, they can probably pay @$4.5 million for 2:1. That means the Phils can pay more at 2:1 than any other team can pay in Round 1 for any prospect that drops below the sixth pick.

    If the first six picks are Puk, Lewis, Groome, Ray, Moniak, and Senzel, then, in theory, the Phils could get anybody else at 2:1. If you are a player, would you rather have the extra money, or would you prefer to sign with the Cards, the Dodgers, the Yankees, the Red Sox, etc. for less money? $1.5-$2 million less?

    1. I think every player would rather have the money.

      I think these overslot deals are a little harder to pull off than everyone is portraying them to be though. There has to be a lot of trust with the team you’re making the deal with. What if the player tells everyone he wants $4.5, then no one takes him and the Phillies 2nd pick comes up and they don’t take him? And I’m sure every player, and every team has overslot deals worked out with more than one potential partner, to protect themselves from that sort of thing from happening. And what if a team doesn’t listen to the players demand that they want $4.5 and calls their bluff and drafts them anyway at like 17th overall? Then the player has to sign for way less than $4.5, or go to college? Its very risky on both parts and theres probably a good chance the guy you want overslot at 42 wont be there. But somebody will be….someone always falls.

      1. And it could work the opposite…. three years ago with Ben Holmes and Jason Monda. I believe there was some ‘miscommunication’ of some sort that both apparent deals never materialized. But they were a little lower as 5th and 6th round draft choices..

    2. The only problem with this is … a team with multiple picks (especially the Braves, Padres, and Reds) should also be able to offer well over slot bonuses (maybe as much as 4 – 4,5 million) to prospects. And those teams will be picking in front of the Phillies at 2.42. However, if the Phillies can save enough money at 1.1 to make offering 5 – 5.5 million dollars an option, that would proably be more than those other teams could match.

      1. Hinkie…that is also if they can get their number one to agree to substantial underslot deals.
        And Puk will probably never agree to anything that low….hard throwing LHP are gold…Rodon , two years ago as the third pick signed for $6.6 alone.
        Puk will be around $7M.

      2. To Hinkie’s point, I know for a fact that San Diego is trying to get an overslot deal for one of their picks in the 20s done with a kid that is supposed to be drafted in the 10-15 range. I was told this by someone that knows the kid well and I believe them. I’m not going to say the kids name (although its probably not too hard to figure out) or the amount that is being offered, but it made sense when I looked at the slot values…

        I will tell you after the draft if this actually materializes or not…

        1. Understand all teams with draft multiple draft selections are negotiating and trying to work deals with later overslotted prospects.
          To the Pads…their first selection at 8 ($3.6M) will need to sign under, since 25 is $2.2M….the specific targeted player as rated 10-15, then the 10th-15th is ranging $3.3M to $2.8M. So the Pads may want the first to sign below $3M which is very doable..
          Nevertheless, the Phillies even with a $2Mm ‘surplus’ may be able to offer just as much at 42 as the Pads at 25.

        2. With the three first-round picks plus another 5%, the Padres will have @$8.3 million to spend on their first two picks plus another $100K on their third pick.

          For the Padres to match the Phils’ second-round $4.5 million offer, then their other pick must sign for no more than $3.8 million. So, $4.5 million and $3.8 million and $100K for Nos. 8, 24 and 25.

      3. The Reds could do it. The Padres would have to overpay their No.8 pick by $900,000 to do it (and then underpay their next two picks by almost that amount.

        I don’t think the Braves could do it. They would have to underpay their No.3 pick by $2.5 million, i.e., sign him for $4 million, and then sign their No. 40 pick for more money at $4.5 million to match the Phils.

        1. Don’t sleep on the Braves. They have five picks in the first three rounds.totaling a little more than 11 million dollars. However, I heard Atlanta may get no savings (might even have to overpay) with the 1.3 pick if they choose Groome.

          1. Groome should surely sign for more than $6.5M….Rodon did two years ago, and Groome may have a little more leverage also.

          2. The Dodgers and Cards, with three picks in the first round, could also compete for an over-slot deal, but the Mets, Nats, and Pirates, with two picks, probably could not.

            So, the Reds, Dodgers, Cards, and the Padres, as well as the Phillies, could do a $4.5 million deal with a pick after No. 6. Whether or not they will pay that much is another question. Commentators are saying the strength of the draft is in picks 25 through 75. The better strategy for some of these teams may be to spread their allotment around through the first two rounds for multiple high-quality picks. In this respect, the Phils and Reds have an advantage over the other teams.

        2. i guess in 1 week if we notice any of the top 15-17 players slip out of round 1 we will know someone has a significant underslot commitment. hopefully us.

    1. The Baseball America July 2 article on the Phillies is out. Anyone read it????

      1. Here is TomB’s psoting earlier today:
        Tom B — June 2, 2016 at 11:34 AM

        Today’s article about the Phillies reiterates that they will not be going over their slot figure.last year was focused on one player (Ortiz) This year will be a different process will spread budget around to many well-regarded players named 5 players

        Brayan Gonzalez – SS – Venezuela – 5′ 10″ 165 – strong baseball acumen

        Francisco Morales – RHP – Venezuela – already 6′ 5″ – low 90s, has touched 96. pitchability has improved

        Nicolas Torres – SS – Venezuela – 5′ 10″ – plus plus speed – future is at 2nd base, not a strong arm and no power

        Juan Aparacio – C – Venezuela – 5′ 10″ 170 lbs – strong hitting track record

        Jose Tortolero – SS – Venezuela – stands out with hitting ability – line drive approach

        1. Thanks for that info, Romus. Gonzalez and (especially) Morales seem like they have the tool to climb the organizational ladder.

          1. Agree Hinkie.
            MLB on Morales:
            Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 50 | Change 40 | Control: 40
            The top pitcher from Venezuela, Morales has the type of fastball that turns heads and the pitch has improved in the last few months. He has been clocked in the 92-96 mph range with movement….What’s more, the tall right-hander has the ideal pitcher’s frame and scouts love his upside. It’s true some scouts believe Morales is more of a thrower than a pitcher, but the young hurler has been working on commanding his pitches and creating a plan of attack when he’s on the mound. And while he has gained attention for pitching with velocity, Morales’ curveball could end up being his best pitch. He also throws a changeup and has shown improved control….Scouts also like Morales’ mound presence and makeup. He’s a competitor and does not show fear on the mound…..Morales, who is from the Venezuelan state of Guarica, trains with Yasser Mendez at the Yasser Mendez Baseball Agency and Academy. The Phillies are the favorite to sign the right-handed pitcher.

            1. Yeah. I had read on MLB.com Morales was 6’3″. However, your info from BA has him listed at 6’5″. And how about a 16 year old hitting 95-96. That’s more velo than just about any HS pitcher in this year’s draft not having the name “Pint” on the back of their uniform.

  46. Of course they won’t be going over slot in international signings. Always leaving flexibility to make a big signing later on that never comes.

  47. Most seem to favor Puk, Groome or Moniak at 1:1. My vote is for Delvin Perez.

    I like tools and upside. Perez has these in spades. And the difference between Perez and prior Phils’ draftees with tools, Perez is a baseball player – a pure shortstop who could give Crawford a run for his money if he doesn’t outgrow the position.

    1. I’ve seen Perez going as high as 2. The only knock on him seems to be coach-ability, attitude and maturity.

      he could end being Manny Machado or Ian Desmond

      1. Altamarz said last year that he would not spend a high first round pick on a pitcher that did not project at least possibly to a number one starter. So we will see, what the Phillies think of his projection

          1. Yeah, if that is accurate, a ceiling of a number #3 starter is rather underwhelming for a potential 1:1 selection.

    1. Thanks for posting this link. I heard this yesterday and was locked into it. Excellent podcast.
      The things that stand out are there is really no 1.1 this year. Puk is probably like Nola in the fact that he is closer to contributing at MLB level than anyone else in the draft. Puk needs MLB coaching to work on his command. Gator HC is held in high esteem by MLB. Puk gets in the $6.7 range.
      Moniak’s comp is Steve Finley and probably a million less than Puk.
      Groome is dropping like a rock. Phillies moved on a while ago. Teams are concerned about Groome’s parents, entourage and hangers on. Could fall to #14.

      1. I find the Steve Finley comp confusing. On one hand, he had a career WAR of 40, so that is pretty good, but he is not a guy who had a 70 hit tool. His career OB% is only .332. That is more “average” hit tool stuff. not 70 grade tool.

        finley was a great center fielder, so i see that defensive comp. and the power output is likely similar. but either Moniak doesn’t have a 70 hit tool, or the finley comp is wrong.

      2. You’re not kidding when you say is Groome is dropping like a rock. According to that Felskie Files podcast … John Manuel basically puts it out there about the “off the field concerns” pertaining to Groome. He’s the first person I’ve actually heard detail this. Manuel says the parents are the problem. They are more interested in the one time “big payday” than rest of Jason’s career going forward. I’m guessing he means the Groomes (including Jason) may be happy with the signing bonus and feel like they can live off that forever, and they’re afraid he won’t be motivated to reach his potential. I don’t know how fair that may be, but if this is the impression baseball people are getting, that’s no bueno for Jay Groome. In fact, Manuel says Groome could slip all the way down to Cleveland at 1.14, and he may be faced with heading off to college.

        1. The best thing for Groome may be to head to college as it appears he needs to mature and is young enough to spend the time there developing. Tim Corbin at Vanderbilt could be the best mentor for the kid. No idea what kind of student Groome is and whether he can handle the rigors of school and baseball but if he dominates in college, he could easily be the #1 pick in 2019 and make a lot more money than he will this year. It really sounds like he needs to grow up and is not ready to be on his own in the minor leagues. I hope the kid gets good advice from his representation and isn’t influenced too much by the parents to take the money.

          1. A high school kid is crazy to pass up the money and go to college. Anything can happen in 3 years in college, arm injuries, arm abuse by college coach, being ineffective. From a personal standpoint if youre a top ten pick you are NUTS to go to college instead of taking money

            1. I would agree if a player is getting top ten money they should take the money. But what is swirling out there is that Groome is dropping fast and may not be a top 10 pick because of a bunch of issues that have nothing to do with baseball skills and everything to do with maturity and negative outside influences. While I think going the school route may be the best thing for this particular kid, I doubt he ever makes it to Vanderbilt.

        2. This is weird why now why a week before the Draft . Who benefits from this no one really. The Phillies wrote off Pint and Groome almost at the same time they wanted to stay any from Hs pitcher no matter who it was. This my be a soap box , Groome was visiting the Rockies and Padres this week.

    1. I, myself am torn between Puk and Lewis, but I will say this. It’s a lot easier to say I would pick the risky guy like the small school OF (Lewis) or the high school hitter that will likely never have any power (Moniak) when its not your job on the line. That’s one of the reasons I think the Phillies take Puk. They have seen him wipe out SEC hitters. Theres less projection involved than with Lewis or Moniak. That’s not to say Puk doesn’t have his negatives, but hes pitched at what is probably the highest level outside of pro ball and had success, while also having more projection left as he can still tighten up his delivery, further develop a third pitch, improve his command etc

      1. I get your overall point, and agree that there is less projection with Puk than with the other 1:1 candidates. That’s probably the best argument for taking Puk at 1:1. But to say that Moniak will never have any power seems merely a convenient exxageration. Yeah, he doesn’t have the power you’d like from a early draft pick, but based on what I’ve read he could project into a 10+ HR guy (i.e., he’s not Ben Revere). And he appears to have the best hit tool (70/80) in the draft and can likely stick in CF. Given that Puk has some question marks as well, Moniak is a legit candidate for 1:1 IMO.

        1. Not sure what you’re arguing. You said yourself he doesn’t have the power you want from an early draft pick. And I included him in the conversation with Puk and Lewis so that pretty much inplies he is a legit candidate for 1:1

          1. I was mostly providing a counter-point to your statement that Moniak “likely will never have any power”. I thought that was pretty clear, but perhaps not. Moniak is not a slugger but most expect him to flash at least occasional power as he matures.

            Also, as others have stated, if his 70/80 hit tool is even close to accurate and with his glove at a valuable defensive position (CF), I wouldn’t immediately dismiss him as a legit candidate for 1:1.

            1. I don’t dismiss him as a 1:1 candidate. I think hes one of three guys in contention for it, although I think hes the least likely.

              Having said that, Keith Law has Moniak going 12th in his mock draft today. That’s just one guys (a really well connected guy, but still just a guy) opinion but that was pretty eye opening

            2. About Moniak … I asked Keith Law a question(s) today during his chat, He doesn’t believe the Phillies will pick Moniak.

              Hi Keith … Phillies fan here. Have you any knowledge of the difference in signing demands between Puk at 1.1 and Moniak at 1.1 ?

              No and I don’t expect to. Also, I really do not believe they’re taking Moniak at 1.

  48. The word from my peeps in Chicago is that Rodon is the classic case of a kid who bought into his own hype coming out of college and pretty much assumed his 2 pitch mix was going to work in the MLB as it did in college. Stuff is amazing yes but the command not so much and that is what is holding him back.

    SEC holds a ton of talent there is no disputing that but it doesn’t come close to what is in pro ball.

    1. I have made no comments or comparisons to Carlos Rodon so I’ll assume that is directed at someone else.

      As far as the SEC not being close to what pro ball is, I’ll let you do the research and see what minor league level the SEC pitchers that were drafted in top 10 since 2008 played at in their draft year and how quickly they made the majors. Here’s a hint: to the man, they skipped the lower levels of minor league ball (so apparently the SEC is close to what is in pro ball) and they all shot up to majors extremely quickly.

      here’s the list if you want to see for yourself:

      2015 1:8 Fulmer, Carson Vanderbilt
      2014 1:7 Nola, Aaron LSU
      2012 1:4 Kevin Gausman LSU
      2010 1:5 Drew Pomerantz Ole Miss
      2009 1:7 Mike Minor Vanderbilt
      2007 1:1 David Price, Vanderbilt

      1. There is a big difference between the SEC guys you list and AJ Puk. Each of the guys you list were aces on their college teams and were dominant performers. AJ Puk is neither. His performance and inability to get deep into games is why I have such a hard time supporting him as the #1 pick. I think Logan Shore is going to be a better MLB pitcher than AJ Puk because Shore knows how to pitch. I just don’t see it with Puk – it almost seems like there is an “Emperor with no clothes” aspect to him. Everyone loves the tools but can’t see, or don’t want to see, the obvious with him. If I am in the draft room I’d ask one question on Puk – why doesn’t the overall performance and consistency match the hype? Stats don’t tell everything but they do tell something.

        1. Yeah Puk isn’t dominant except for the 12.34 K/9 which is better than every other pitcher I listed above except Price.

          I’ll bet $100 you’ve never seen AJ Puk pitch in a baseball game and $1,000 that you’ve never seen Logan Shore pitch before

          1. 12.34 k per 9 isn’t as meaningful when you can’t go more than 5 innings. And you would lose your bets.

            I’m not saying Logan Shore should be a top pick. I’m simply saying I believe he will be a better pitcher than Puk. Time will tell.

        2. Logan Shore is one of the safest players in this draft. He will be pitching in the MLB NLT 2018 sometime.
          IMO….however his ceiling and floor basically flat-line touch.
          Perhaps a mid-to-bottom rotation guy. but he will be around in the majors for a long time.
          Not sure what kind of an upside he will have and he cannot afford to fall behind in his progress to the majors.
          Many do not have him at the top of a rotation but the safe pick.

        3. Digging into the Longhorns’ archives, I believe that Calvin Schiraldi was Texas’ top pitcher in ’83, not Roger Clemens.

  49. Keith Law’s Mock 3.0 is just out. Has the Phillies still picking Puk The new, interesting news is the guys he has listed as possibilities for #42.

    “The Phillies still haven’t decided on the first pick, and they could go in another direction (Kyle Lewis, Corey Ray, Mickey Moniak) here, but if I had to bet on one of them versus the field, it would be Puk. Meanwhile, the list of names they’d like to overpay at pick 42 keeps growing, including Wentz and Blake Rutherford.”

    1. I’m skeptical they could pull it off considering everything that would have to go right, but getting Wentz or Rutherford at 42 would be amazing. Almost too good to be true haha

      1. Tommy … I’m with you. Puk/Rutherford would be amazing.
        This may or may not be connected … but … I finally had a chance to listen to the Felskie Files podcast v1again posted yesterday. John Manuel claims Rutherford will be working out for the Phillies this weekend.

      2. I would be more excited that we got Rutherford at 2.1 than Puk at 1.1. That would really be something if they can pull it off!

    2. Also … to Tommy Gunn’s report yeterday about the Padres looking to overpay a local prep player in the sandwich round, there’s this …
      “As with the last two mocks (mock draft 2.0 and mock draft 1.0), I have omitted some high school players who are first-round talents — Joey Wentz and Nolan Jones among them — but may slip to the sandwich or second round to be paid overslot bonuses by teams with extra picks.”

      1. I also asked about pick #42 … I wonder who he is referring to as better than Anderson at #42 (maybe Manning):

        Is it more realistic to think Rutherford (as you mentioned today) slides to the Phillies at #42 or one of the HS arms? If it’s an arm, could Ian Anderson or even Riley Pint be the guy ?

        Arms. There are more of them in this draft, and they are seen as riskier to begin with. Pint ain’t getting past 9, though. And I hear Anderson won’t get past the Yanks, but there are other scenarios where they end up with someone better than Anderson anyway.

        1. Getting Manning at 42 would be a real steal….BA has him as the fourth best HS pitcher behind Groome, Pint and Garret. I have seen rankings that have around the 12-15 area.

      1. Odd…Sox will not do that…Andrew B, and already in AA, is the same type player ..CFer with a hit tool….and he was their first last year…what is he thinking?

      2. I’d be very surprised if Moniak lasts until 1:12. More likely he’s off the board in the first half dozen picks.

        1. I would hope he would get stronger as an 18-year old and progress thru the system, possibly pick a few more ticks on his velo.

  50. The whole ‘over-slot’ concept is very interesting to me.. I get that teams talk with players and basically agree to a contract before the draft. So, the Phillies find someone who wants early first round money, and the kid tells other teams that he won’t sign for less than X. Team comes around in the second round, and picks the kid, and ends up paying early first round money.

    What I find intriguing is that a team at the end of the first round does not say “you know what, instead of taking a flyer on a toolsy outfielder who has a 1 in 2 chance of developing into an MLB player, and a 1 in 10 chance of being an impact player, I am going to take this kid that wants $4 – 5MM, and offer him $2MM. That kid has a 1 in 3 chance of being an impact player – I will take my chances”.

    The kid may say he will not sign, and there is a chance that he won’t. But, I bet there is a chance – maybe a good chance – that the kid could sign. If your option is to go the JUCO route for a year and reenter the draft, or go to independent ball, or go to a 4 year school, there is risk – significant risk – that you never get a $2MM offer when you are draft eligible again. If the kid does not sign, you get the pick (+1) next year..

    It would take a whole lot of confidence to turn down $2MM as an 18-21 year old, even if the free market says you are worth much more..

    1. I agree and this is why I keep saying that people are making seem easier than it really is to make an overslot deal happen. There are so many things that could wrong and there are so many teams this year that have money to burn.

      These deals do happen though so somehow teams and players make it happen every year

  51. If I’m getting this right, teams are basically negotiating with players before the draft and the only way it falls thru is if a team that didn’t takes that player before the team that did. So is it reasonable to assume that every team is on the same page with their picks and this is merely all involved going along with the script.

    1. I don’t think its that cut and dry but all the teams right now are talking with players and agents to get idea on what they would sign for. Especially at the top of the draft, teams are not drafting players blindly without knowing what they expect bonus wise. The Phillies will 100% know what bonus amount they will be paying before they draft the first pick.

      Teams throughout the first round will be attempting to do the same thing but it gets murkier the further along you get in the first round because you don’t know who will be available and what surprises happened.

      But there are undoubtedly guys that are telling teams right now I need X amount of money for my bonus and teams will pass on this guy because of that number. And then these highly rated guys drop until the point where a team either goes way overslot for them with their first round pick (less likely) or a team comes around with their second pick and goes way overslot for that player because they went underslot for a player earlier and/or have a huge bonus allotment like Phillies, Reds, Braves, Padres (most likely)

      1. As you have said previously, pulling off an over-slot deal is difficult for both the team and the player. For the team, it’s not just about available money, although that is a minimum requirement.

        The big problems for the Phils are 1) that they cannot make firm promises to more than one prospect and 2) if they commit to one prospect, they can only reach a non-binding handshake deal with the prospect; so, they will want to be sure the prospect honors the handshake deal. Otherwise, all the Phils can do is let it be known they are willing to go over slot in the second round, wait to see who is available at No. 42, and make the best deal from among the prospects who fell to round two because of signability issues.

  52. BAs Top 15 HS pitchers:
    A deal at 42 can be made with many of them other than perhaps the top 3 or 4.
    Riley Pint-R
    Jason Groome-L
    Braxton Garrett-L
    Matt Manning-R
    Ian Anderson-R
    Forrest Whitley-R
    Kyle Muller-L
    Joey Wentz-L

    Jared Horn-R
    Kevin Gowdy-R
    Alex Speas-R
    Jesus Luzardo-L
    Cole Ragans-L
    Reggie Lawson-R

    1. Maybe Phillies started the rumor with Groome he drops down 2.1 then they him sign for 4 mil . I heard Ian Anderson is good friends with Belge both from NY and are going to bonus babies . Wentz hard a dead arm period last yr started a strengthen program Arm came back and was great has 3 good pitches throw 4 no hitters . Now I here Arm went went dead again.

  53. Tommy brought up an interesting point earlier, that there are a wide range of outcomes for Moniak, Ray, Lewis, and Groome. Pretty much the only one that’s consistently top 3 is Puk.

    But I don’t think any of these guys have a clue this year. I saw Fangraphs predictions for last year, and they nailed the top 5. I didn’t see anything more recent than their early May mock, which had Groome first, but they have Puk as their top player.

    If they take Puk, I’ll deal with it, but I still think I favor Ray with 50+ hit 50+ in game power, 60 speed, and a chance at sticking in CF. And no, that doesn’t sound like a great profile, but unless Moniak really has a 70 hit tool, it might be the best one out there. (Lewis is similar, but I prefer hit over power, and his competition is much weaker)

    1. Seems to be the collective thought…if Puk is the one, then people will deal with it and hope for the best.
      Concenring Lewis….his Krate of 17% , especially the bulk of his PA in the Southern Conference, is a caution flag. OTOH, they didn’t pitch to Him and he lead the nations in BBs. So he could have been chasing pitches at some points, just to get the chance to hit something.

      1. My problem with Puk—>he does not have good command, doesn’t finish what he starts, and has a problematic back. Some say that he is NOT a #1n a staff. I’d rather take a hitter who has the potential to be a star as some are available. Try for a superior pitcher at #42. Maybe sign the hitter at $6 mil with plenty left over for 42 and others thereafter. Some say the real gems are within 25-50…and with the funds available left over , we should be able to do well in our 2nd & 3rd pick.

      2. Romus the more I read, it I believe still comes down to money. Will puk take less. knowing Cincinnati wants him? Will the Phillies say lets take moniak for 6 million . Used the savings on 2 and three? I like puk but don’t want to overpay. cause he does have some red flags. But so does the others. its imo all coming down to pre draft deal for one and getting a read who will take what in second round.

        1. rocco…that is part of what Matt Klentak said…..one criteria in factoring the selection is the signing amount. And after this weekend they would have met with all the reps and understand Rutherford is in town today.

          1. Yes Rutherford is at the Oregon diner with Mike Schmidt and Gary Maddox. He ordered sos ? who know what is??

  54. CWS update Western Carolina is in Klye Lewis division played Clemson today.They say Lewis is in a weak pitching Confence . Clemson confirmed that they today they won 24 to 10 baseball score not football . Seth Beer was 1 for 4 with a Hr and a face plant on the warning track he’s ok . Okey there catcher went 3 for 3 4 runs 4 rbi’s 2 HR’s 3 walks. W C walked Clemson 17 times, Clemson did beat Florida st in ACC Championship 18 to 13 . I watched that Busdy

  55. Sorry it froze again Dylan Busby the 1st base man hit 4 HR’S in The Acc tournament hit 1 doubles 1 triple . He crushed a Hr in the Clemson game he can hit. Florida st won 18 to 6 , Virginia won 17 to 6 I promise I’m on the Acc base ball score board not football. Gators won too but South Carolina was upset so was Mississippi . ACC is just hitting Maimi only won 4 to 2.

    1. Yup, knocked out in the 5th. 4.1 IP 5 H, 0 BB 5 SO. 5 runs, 4 earned. UConn first baseman Bobby Melley homered off him in the 1st inning.

  56. Puk has 1 inning future reliever written all over him. Can’t see him consistently going more than 2 innings as a professional. Give me any one else as the #1 pick please.

    1. Dunno that he couldn’t consistently go more than 2 innings as a starter; however, I tend to agree that Puk most likely ends up in an MLB bull pen. He could be very effective in that role, but who wants a reliever at 1:1?

  57. I think he had good start 0 walks so his w/9 is a better . The all important k/9 should is still high. He only threw 75 pitches in 4.1 ings I think Sullivan has a quick hook. That was the 5 the start he didn’t make it 5 ings.

  58. maybe if they dont pick AJ Puk, they can draft AJ Puckett a few rounds later. They had pretty good success with a Pepperdine pitcher in the early rounds almost 20 years ago.

  59. I am not paying him 6 million. I was on his bandwagon. but come on Connecticut you cant beat. NO WAY he gets top dollar.. I am looking at moniak. senzel.

    1. Given Puk’s record this year there’s no way the Phillies can pick him 1:1 unless they’re saying results don’t count and they deciding on wishes.

      Stuff is great, but 2 twins in 40 games, lots of walks and his latest outing ending in a third of an inning of a double, two singles, HBP and WP…

      1. wins now twins so since it’s just two wins I guess you could say they’re twins.

    2. rocco….from what I understand, Charlie Manual seems to lean Moniak…..a distant second Rutherford. But hitters are his bread and butter. I agree with you …Puk may be end up being a Reds decision come Thursday.

  60. I saw an article about that. Apparently Puckett is a legit prospect, weird mechanics notwithstanding. What cracks me up, though, is what would happen if they both underwhelm. I don’t think it’d take the fanbase or media a long time to replace those “P”s with “S”s haha

  61. Peanuts , popcorn , life jackets BA ” Puk making Phillies choice harder hasn’t averaged 5 ings a start”.Pitchers do get lucky he should have won 5 to 7 games on a 40 win team but 2 . Teams should be used to thus From Puk they know what there getting . All from BA guys wow peeps are jumping off the Puk ship.

    1. Johnny A did have something to say today, that may lean away from Puk…..under no circumstances will the selection have any bearing on proximity to the majors, ie Aaron Nolaish….thus college guys do not have a step above HSers due to their closer proximity to the show, and gave examples of Griffey/ARod and Harper as HS guys who were there very early……unfortunately this draft may have those type of positional players available at 1.1

        1. AJ Puk did not help his cause with a poor outing against Connecticut on Saturday.

      1. Wow is the opposite to what most people are saying on this board. I heard he likes bats so who knows . Romus there, s an article above about Groome read the hole it raises a good Question who? It’s by fangraphs so it’s legit.

        1. Everyone is in town no, regional supervisors , plus the two head scouts along with Johnny A are still evaluating and it appears that also sign ability (amount) may be a part of the equation.
          And yes he prefers position layers ….mainly because they are less prone to the pitcher’s arm and shoulder issues that make them labeled as TINSTAAPP

          1. It wasn’t you Romus it more a less what I been reading all over not just on this site. . Manuel of BA said Puk’s ceiling is a 3 rd starter he’s first one that put Puk In a different category. Looks like it’s Florida vs Florida st in the Super . Florida St been tearing up the baseball it should be interesting.

  62. If Puk threw 7 innings yesterday no one that didnt already want him
    With the 1st pick would have changed their minds. I can’t believe that anyone is really swayed by one game.
    If they are then that’s pretty sad. If the timing of this last game and his start against LSU were switched, on guys would really feel
    Better about Puk? I don’t get that. Maybe I’m just not as reactionary as most people, I don’t know.

    And if anyone is really basing their opinion on Puk’s viability as 1:1 on his college won/loss record then please go ahead and post on philly.com rather than on this website…

    1. I don’t think this start changed anyone’s mind, but certain outcomes confirm each viewpoint, making the holders of those viewpoints more vocal.

      If you Puk threw 7 innings with 10 K and 0 BB, you’d be doing the same thing.

      1. I agree 100% with your first sentence haha. That’s pretty much what I was saying in my original post….but didn’t state it as clearly.

        If Puk comes out and throws a 7 inning shutout in his next start do all the guys that want Moniak or Groome all of a sudden say “hey I wish we drafted Puk instead”?

        The obvious answer to that is no.

        Having said all that, I’m sticking with my opinion that the Phillies are likely drafting Puk and that if I was in charge I also would pick Puk (slight favorite over Lewis in my mind).

        If they do take him I will assume they believe has legitimate top of rotation potential and feel they can get him to that point. With their recent track record in the first round and their obvious advantage over us in AJ Puk scouting, I will defer to their opinion. Just as I will if they take Moniak or Lewis or anyone else. End of the day we as fans are at a disadvantage in having a solid opinion on players in the baseball draft unlike the NBA or NFL…

    2. You’re right that one start (good or bad) shouldn’t really change anyone’s mind about Puk. This most recent start by Puk is just more confirmation of his inconsistency and trouble going deep into games. So yeah, not much really changed.

    3. He’s had too many starts like this. Wasn’t sold on him before this. Still would take Moniak.

  63. Really like Bobby Dalbec from Arizona. 2-way player, career .290 hitter, fastball around 95 and easy. Secondary stuff isn’t electric and needs some refinement. Has closed and started for Arizona. He was also Kingery’s roommate. BA rated him #6 prospect in the Pac 12.

    1. I’m never going to knock somebody for liking or not liking a certain player, but, out of curiosity, are you related to Bobby Dalbec ? His junior season was so bad, he’s probably going to have to go back to school for his senior season in the hopes he can improve his draft stock for 2017. He had one tool entering this season (power bat), and even that went south this year. He hit only 6 HR’s. He slashed .258/.370/.434. His K rate was 32%. Don’t think he’s a good enough pitcher to make it to MLB.

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