2016 Draft Discussion, May 23rd

The 2016 draft discussion continues here.  These discussions will be accessible under “The Draft” menu option “2016 Draft Discussions and Picks” for reference.

BA updated their Top 100 Draft Prospects on May 5th. The top six are –

  • #1 – A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida
  • #2 – Riley Pint, RHP, St. Thomas Aquinas HS, KA
  • #3 – Jason Groome, LHP, Barnegat HS, NJ
  • #4 – Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer
  • #5 – Nick Senzel, 3B, Tennessee
  • #6 – Corey Ray, OF, Louisville

FWIW, here’s some projections on the Phillies’ selection gathered by MLB Trade Rumors, and some consolidated info on mock drafts from the Sporting News.

Florida’s A.J. Puk exited the game against LSU after the second inning with a stomach ailment.  He pitched the Friday night game, but that was actually the second game of the three game series.

The SEC Tournament starts this week, Florida draws LSU or Tennessee on May 25th.

Player IP H R ER BB SO WP BK HBP IBB AB BF FO GO NP
A.J. PUK (L, 2-3) 2.0 0 1 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 6 9 3 2 36

Riley Pint pitched a complete game one-hitter in the regional final.  Had at least 9 strike outs in 6-0 win.  In his first 35 innings pitched, Pint allowed 16 hits, three earned runs, 19 walks while striking out 65 with a record of 5-1 and an ERA of 0.25 ERA for the 16-4 Saints.

Apparently, their draw in the state quarterfinals pits Pint v. another young prospect.  Matt Gaspar, Sports Director KNST News, “Wow! Aquinas vs Seaman in the 5A baseball quarterfinals. Riley Pint vs Ryan Zeferjahn. MLB scouts will be EVERYWHERE.”

The game is scheduled for on May 26th.

Jason Groome pitched Monday night at Camden’s Campbell Field.  He lost a 1-0 decisiion to Gloucester Catholic’s Tyler Mondile.  Gc’s run was unearned.  Groome pitched a complete game and struck out 14 batters.  He walked two and allowed 2 hits.  His FB was 92-93 mph.   Here’s a story from Delaware Online, 5/17.  The Phillies were represented by Johnny Almaraz, Pat Gillick, Charley Kerfeld, and Jorge Velandia.

Here’s a story by MLB’s Jonathan Mayo.

Kyle Lewis, Mercer: .411/.545/.729/1.274

56 G, 207 AB, 64 R, 85 H, 11 D, 2 T, 17 HR, 64 RBI, 61 BB, 6 HBP, 43 K, 5 SF, 6/11 SB

Nick Senzel, Tennessee: .354/.459/.602/1.061

56 G, 206 AB, 56 R, 73 H, 25 D, 1 T, 8 HR, 59 RBI, 40 BB, 4 HBP, 21 K, 5 SF, 24/28 SB

Corey Ray, Louisville: .326/.392/.580/.972

56 G, 236 AB, 50 R, 77 H, 16 D, 1 T, 14 HR, 57 RBI, 30 BB, 2 HBP, 33 K, 6 SF, 37/37 SB

 

187 thoughts on “2016 Draft Discussion, May 23rd

  1. Has anybody heard anything about Mickey Moniak? I thought I read somewhere that the Phillies are seriously interested in him.

    1. Yes and yes. As I’ve said, he’s the one I would choose. I think he has the highest ceiling of any hitter in the draft.

      1. I still think they should take the best player, even if it’s a pitcher, but boy I would sure be happy if the best player is a hitter.

    2. Everything that I have read on him has been positive. That said, he strikes me as a higher bust risk than Groome, Puk or Lewis. He might have the highest upside. But boy, your scouts better be right.

      1. He is a hitter.
        He might not be a big power guy down the road, but he will make contact. Kind of like a Christian Yelich type hitter. And his defense will not hurt you in the OF.
        But a higher bust risk than Groome or Puk????? TINSTAAPP

        1. My view of pitching prospects is that you can scout a pitcher regardless of competition. You put the grades on the pitches, not the outcomes. So a 95 mph fastball with movement and command is a plus fb. It is irrelevant who is in the batters box. Same thing with breaking balls. That is why a pitcher’s future projection is based on how many plus pitches they have. That’s what translates to higher levels.

          On the contrary, the quality of a hitter is completely dependent upon who he is facing. Crushing a straight, poorly commanded 88 mph fastball from a pitcher with a terrible braking pitch (so you can sit fastball) is not the same as being able to hit a plus fastball from a pitcher who has a 60 grade curve. HS hitters rarely face draft quality pitching.

    3. In watching the video clips of him, he reminds me of Chipper Jones, that is his stance , the way he holds the bat and even his swing.

  2. Being a mostly traditional organization, I doubt this would be in play, but…

    Since this isn’t a great year to have the top pick, do you think the Phillies might copy the Astros playbook by deliberately low-balling their top pick, knowing he will not sign that offer, and then recouping the top pick in next year’s draft?

    What’s more likely is signing the top pick to a less-than-expected contract, then drafting over-slots in the later rounds.

    The tealeaves seems to be saying Puk will be the pick. Which is fine, but he’s not someone you dream of drafting 1.1, IMO.

    1. I think they have to offer at least 60 percent of the slot money to be able to recoup their pick the following year. Even then I think it is a major no-no (I believe the Astros where dissected and analyzed beyond belief). I think like you said they are more likely to find the person who will sign for the lowest amount and then work out a deal for an over slot with the 2.1 pick. Hopefully they can get two top 20 prospects out of it.

    2. Swanson signed at 76% last year as the 1.1.
      If Phillies offered 61%…or $5.5M…..the draftee may still sign!
      Then you could also get a pre-draft deal worked for Cal Quantrill at 2.42 for the remaining….$1.5M plus then also $3.5M.

  3. AJ Puk line above shows exactly why you can’t scout a stat line. That line doesn’t show nearly how bad he looked on Friday. He didn’t throw one strike or come close to hitting his target, in the 30 pitches he threw. The LSU hitters bailed him out, or else he would have walked everybody he faced.

    1. Not big on Puk myself BUT I throw that line out (as well as the outing) since he was sick to begin with.

  4. Look, I am not a pro scout, but I just dont see one reason to take Puk at 1.1. Some people on twitter were saying they go Puk because he can move fast and possibly be in the bigs next year. First off, I am hesitant to believe that because he cant throw strikes to college hitters and ML hitters have better discipline, but even so, you don’t draft a guy at 1.1 because he can move quickly, you draft a guy at 1.1 who you think will be an all star player. Rumors consistently say that the phillies are “out” on Groome and I just don’t get that. At this point, I would go Groome, Martin, Pint, Ray in that order, with Puk nowhere near the picture. He reminds me of waaaay to many guys who were busts, from Scott Ruffcorn (remember him???) to Andrew Miller (now a great ML reliever but you dont want your 1.1 pick to struggle for 8 years and only find his footing when being moved to the pen)

      1. hilarious that you remember that. i do too, my family was visiting my grandparents in baltimore so they took us to camden yards and on the out of town scoreboard it said “Philadelphia’s Scott Ruffcorn no hitter through 5” and they were down 2-0 hahaha. He was a top 100 prospect 4 or 5 times…just couldnt throw strikes! He and Jeff Juden

  5. Though Kyle Lewis has trended downward in May…..he did lead his league in BBs, 61, by a large margin, next closest was 43 and second in all D1 baseball to Miami Hurricane’s Zack Collins who has 62…….they are pitching around him, leading me to believe he may swing at a few outside the zone pitches just wanting to hit a ball once in awhile.

  6. Ray has become more of an intriguing option to me. Don’t think I want a pitcher unless they are certain about Groome.

  7. While I like Groome a lot, I find Pint to be even more interesting. He hasn’t pitched a lot which means less wear and tear on his arm. I watched Puk and he’s good but he sure doesn’t make you think he’s 1/1 good. Florida is the best team in the country and Puk only has 2 wins. The name that I keep reading about is Moniak, a high school OF with five tools. I think he’s the dark horse.

      1. Was a good article about him at the beginning of their season in SoCal. Coach talked about what a great leader he was, always puts the team first even though he’s the best HS player in the state. Seemed like a really positive take on the kid.

  8. I hope they are still considering Senzel. Any one of Senzel, Lewis, Ray or Rutherford for under-slot is fine with me as long as they can work a deal with some top pitchers in the 2nd and 3rd.

    1. Why Senzel? Doesn’t seem like – according to scouts – he’s got anything that resembles an all star ceiling. Finding an average major league player @ 1.1 seems counterproductive.

        1. Not at all. I have no problem going with a bat here: Ray or Lewis from college or Moniak from prep. But a 6’1″ 3B with avg hit and power tools is not remotely appealing.

      1. I look at Senzel as close to Bergman, from last year. He can hit and can play 2nd or 3rd. Ideally you want a star at 1:1. But if you don’t see any stars, a solid position player (Senzel) is worth a lot more than a future reliever (Puk).

        1. Can he play second? I haven’t seen a scout that says that, only that he plays below average 3rd.

          Doesn’t seem like iron clad logic: “take this mediocre player b/c he’s sure to be better than that one”. Pass.

    1. Kevin Gowdy would be a good selection….but will he reach 42?
      http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/kevin-gowdy-among-socals-top-prospects/#7B8jxyC2q7RcOsAq.97
      LHP Jeff Belge should definetly be there at 42 however.
      http://highschoolsports.syracuse.com/news/article/-5571811715767804265/henningers-jeff-belge-may-be-pitching-his-way-back-to-top-of-baseball-draft/

      I will be also really impressed with Matt Klentak if he is able to get Comp Bal picks, for example the Reds at 35.

  9. I would be disappointed with Puk at 1. I do not like his lack of control and command. I may be scarred by Aumont and Biddle but I really hate the idea of a 1.1 selection who cannot hit his spots.

    1. You can add Joe Savery to your list. That’s who I always think of when I see Puk’s name mentioned.

  10. Moniak, Lewis or Rutherford at 1.1 would be just fine. Go with upside arms after the top pick. Really really leaning towards Moniak though.

  11. Only from what I have read and heard regarding 1.1, my order of preference:
    1 Moniak
    2 Ray
    3 Groome

    Sounds like Senzel has a Chase Headley ceiling….eh?? Lewis hasn’t been quite tested enough at that level.

  12. With two and a half weeks to go and no true 1.1, I can’t help but think how unlucky we are that Seth Beer left HS early and enrolled at Clemson in January. One semester of school and Beer is the best player in college. Beer finished the regular season .378/.528/.694 with 15 HR’s.
    That said, if I had to produce my Phillies’ draft board, it would probably look something like this:
    1. Cal Quantrill I love this kid. Whether I underpaid for him at 1.1 or struck a deal to overpay him at 2.42, he’s the guy I like the most in this draft. Quantrill was throwing 94-95 MPH before TJ. He believs he’ll throw with even more velo post TJ. In addition, according to a BA podcast, some scouts rate his breaking ball an “80”. He’s also the most polished pitcher available and has good bloodlines.
    2. Is a guy nobody ever talks about and can surely be had for a WELL BELOW slot value. This guy has Kyle Schwarber comps. This is Schwarber’s slash line as a senior in the BIG 10 .358/.464/.659/1123. The guy available in this year’s draft plays in a better conference (ACC) and has a similar slash .372/.549/.628/1177. The guy I’m talking about is Zack Collins. Just like Schwarber, Collins is a college catcher who probably will have to move to another position. I’d start him out at catcher and make him play his pay off the position (like the Cubs did with Schwarber). Collins is an absolute on-base machine (61 BB, 37 K). If you had a lineup with JP Crawford, Cornelius Randolph, and Zack Collins, you would drive up pitch counts and get to opposing teams’ bullpens earlier in games. The Red Sox supposedly have a lot of interest in Collins. They have been excellent talent evaluators. That gives me even more confidence in his future.
    3. AJ Puk I think just based on his projectability he fits here.
    4. Jason Groome would be #2 if not for the tragic history of HS pitchers at or near the top of the draft
    5. Riley Pint see above
    6. Corey Ray is the safe pick.
    7. Delvin Perez is the lottery ticket

  13. Moniak Grand pa played minor league ball his hitting coach ” TED WILLIAMS “. Mickey Moniak said ” I’d rather go 0 4 and win then go 4 4 and lose “. He has Great leadership ,this yr set the Socal record with 12 triples .

  14. I am just glad I don’t have to make the decision…

    tough to pass on Groome who I really do feel will be Kershaw-esque but I get the fear factor.

    Lewis has loud tools across the board but one has to wonder about the level of competition and there is definitely too much movement in that pre-swing load (for my liking)

    I think Ray is going to really struggle against LHP at the next level.

    Pint’s mechanics scare the be-jesus out of me that arm is definitely going down at some point.

    Puk almost seemingly is on purpose trying to pitch himself off the Phillies board I can’t envision any scenario where I would take him 1:1!

    Moniak is starting to intrigue me more and more. I know Johnny will make the right call.

    1. Dam I agree on almost every one. Lewis competition and his pre swing load. scary. Pint looks on tape like he just throws it as hard as he can. and hopes it goes over the plate. Moniak has a beautiful swing. but I don’t know anything else about him, Don’t know anything about ray. Groome does have a nice easy delivery. hard decision

  15. Just seen a tweet some asked Callis of Mlb to make a bold pick for the Philles draft he said Moniak . All the under tones for the 2 wks have been Moniak even if the sites are saying Puk. Almost like last yr when that catcher was making all the talk then the picked C.

  16. Still Team Groome, but either the Phillies are the greatest poker players of all time, or it ain’t happening.

    I’d be fine with Puk or Lewis at 1.1. Puk’s stuff is undeniable … he could be Chris Sale if he worked out his command and control issues. Lewis gives you power with a good approach and hit tool … but, like Puk, all is predicated on the “ifs”.

    No thanks to Senzel or Ray.

    Moniak is intriguing. He sounds like he projects to be a similar hitter to what has been projected for Randolph, except he’s quick, has a strong arm and plays CF. If the org decided to go in this direction, I wouldn’t be disappointed.

    1. You know, my views on prospects and development have changed a lot since I started following this site. I’ve always been a big fan of hard throwers and pitchers that do not pitch to contact. That said, while velocity is huge, and, at some levels essential (it’s almost impossible to be an effective righty if you don’t throw in the low 90s), it’s not everything. Command, pitch variety and movement are huge. That’s why Aaron Nola is so damned good – he has okay velocity, but everything else is great. On the flip side, over time, I have very little use for high draft picks that can throw super hard but have no command. I don’t want them picking some kid first who throws the ball all over the place. Now, if he was a second or third round pick or even a late first round pick, I would get it – but not with the first overall pick.

      Here’s my view on this – you said that if Puk gets his control down, he’s Chris Sale. Now, this may be a perfectly accurate statement. But the problem is that, if Jake Diekman had his control down and threw a variety of pitches, he would be Chris Sale too (the similarity in pure ability, aside from command, is scary). But he doesn’t have the command or pitch selection Sale has so, while he’s not a failure, he’s just a very good middle reliever. To me, Puk would be a great late first round pick, but I’m staying clear of him with the first pick. And, thankfully, I expect the Phillies to do just that – Almaraz believes control/command cannot be taught so I don’t see them taking a scatter arm of any type with the first pick.

      1. catch….I agree with you and your trepidation with Puk at 1.1
        But then again I look at the following HoF pitchers and their C&C issues….and big time at the start of their careers….Randy Johnson, Steve Carlton, and Sandy Koufax and there are more big lefties who struggled early on with mechanics and control issues IMO, he is still high risk and they may see projection.
        But the safe pick is not Puk.
        ,

      2. Haha, yeah, you’re very right, Catch. Diekman would be Chris Sale with command and another pitch. And that’s something we need to keep in mind when talking about dream scenarios for pitchers. Command is just so hard to come by, even mixed with average stuff.

      3. I can’t disagree with any of this. It all comes down to whether the org believes the issues he’s had can be ironed out. As I’ve said before, the club’s recent track record at the top of drafts gives me a lot of confidence they’ll make the right choice.

        Unfortunately, I believe the right choice this year is Groome. That easy, repeatable delivery screams health and consistency to me. But I don’t work for a baseball team, so what do I know? 🙂

  17. Phs took hitters @#1 on 2 of the last 3 years. Plus Larry Greene makes 3 of 4. Unless there is a dominant Bat, I’d say its time to go after pitchi.g afain. The info on the other plate of this scales is that they did get several higb draft pic pitchers from other teams through their trades. Eshelman, Appel the kid in AAA; etc. Plus, they do have a few position players to add to the lineup they are firming. (Williams), Alfaro, Cozens, Altheer, Sweeney, etc.

    Good pitching beats good hitting 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 4 times. If Puk is the top college arm, then I’d opt for Groome due to Puks control issues. He’s still a top round pick, but if Groome can put things together, Clayton Kershaw has been mentioned as potential upside. That’s pretty good company, even if it takes 6-8 yrs to get there.

    The one poster mentioned a college kid with a lot of walks and few ks with power….not lewis.(Collins?) That’s the hitter that all teams need to balance out the Howards and the Cozens.

    We all look at each years top 5 picks as being sure ML starters and thus look to the draft to fill holes or strengthen tge team. Mathmatically, the team doesn’t turn over its roster every 5 years (25 pics from each draft), so likely only 2 – 3 of the drafteez will become regular everyday players; perhaps 4 on a high draft year.
    The phils used to have the gameplan to draft the best overall athlete and make ballplayers out of tgem. They have gone away from that, but it still seems that tgey should pic the player with the highest overall potential, rather than favor a hitter or pitching draft. But that is tempered by the continual need for good pitching to defeat good hitting.

    I’m still faviring Groom, but they will do fine with whoever they take. 1.1 has so much unneccessary added pressure.

    Who’s going to win golden spikes?….

    1. The Phillies did not take hitting in 3 of the last 4 drafts. They’ve alternated hitting and pitching at the 1st pick every year since 2009.

      Randolph
      Nola
      Crawford
      Watson
      L Greene
      Biddle
      Dugan

      1. Thank you for the correction. Still, they are due a pitcher or a dominant can’t miss college power bat. There was nothing more ‘can’t miss than Pat Burrell and though he had a successful pro career, in my mind he didn’t fulfill his college projections in OB% or walk rate.

        It’s an gamble in many ways.

      2. Interesting, I didn’t realize the alternating pattern before. If they stay true to this method the first pick will be a pitcher………..(Puk)

    1. I don’t see how the Phillies can pass on Groome. He’s clearly the best player in this draft and it isn’t close imo. Puk has bust or RP written all over him. Reminds me of our very own Mark Appel. Coming from a big program, great size, great stuff, but command and control will keep them from succeeding. I could see it now Braves take Groome and i will be pissed at the Philles for the next 10 years.

      1. How is it that Groome is clearly the best player in the draft? The BA guys have been saying for weeks that Pint is clearly better.

        1. Disagree. Only that one outlet has Pint listed higher, most have Groome 1st or 2nd above Pint.

  18. so the Braves get the #76 pick from the O’s for taking on 3 million bucks for Brian Matusz for the rest of the season? Braves gave up two former 16th round picks not in their top 30’s, but pitching well this season.

    1. Yeah. Sounds like a deal the Phillies should have made. Would have added another 800 thousand dollars to their draft pool allotment.

  19. At 1:1 you need to pick best available, not go with say 5th best in hopes to sign above slot at 2:1. I’m still leaning Groome at 1:1 with highest upside.

  20. The pharm is not lacking for talent at the outfield positions, so my question is, in taking a guy like Lewis or Moniak. how much of an upgrade is it over what they have now – a lot or a little? I would lean towards Groome because I don’t see anything they currently have that resembles a big lefty earmarked for the top of the rotation

    1. BobS…….the Phillies have identified pitching as ‘thin’…..assuming they meant from the port side. So logically it could be Groome or Puk.
      Drafting Moniak, at 1.1, one year after taking Randolph at the 10th pick….makes little sense…if they expect both to fly thru the system on their hit tool and then you have the likes of Williams, Cozens and to some degree Quinn, if he doesn’t stay in CF in the MLB, as hurdles also. And then there is the Knapp/Alfaro saga and who moves from catching. They will be forced to move a few of them, as valued trade chips, within 2 or 3 years.

      1. Andrew Morgan is not helping his case as a MLB starter and he is our only LH starting pitcher. Believe the pick will be Groome or Puk as the Phillies need a LH starter and the outfield positions look better than in prior years.

  21. Here’s something interesting to keep in mind as we get closer to the draft.

    I’ve seen a sentiment on this board about what bad luck the Phillies have getting the first pick in a draft with no clear #1. And also “how could anyone take AJ Puk #1 overall” and “should the Phillies really take Kyle Lewis or Corey Ray because we have so many OF prospects in the high minors and would they really be better than Cozens and Williams and Quinn?”

    So basically everyone is underrating just how good of a prospect the Phillies will actually be adding with the #1 overall pick. Yes, they not be as much of a slam dunk as Bryce Harper of Gerrit Cole, but also, just because this pick isn’t a slam dunk doesn’t mean its not going to be a tremendous prospect.

    So, anyway, Keith Law just put out his top 25 prospects in baseball list. Here is where players from last years draft (which was also similarly unsettled at the top) rank among the top 25 prospects in baseball:

    1 1 Swanson, Dansby – now ranked 11th best prospect in baseball

    1 2 Bregman, Alex – now ranked 15th best prospect in baseball

    1 3 Rodgers, Brendan – now ranked 9th best prospect in baseball

    1 5 Tucker, Kyle – now ranked among 5 honorable mention players after the top 25

    1 7 Benintendi, Andrew – now ranked 6th best prospect in baseball

    1 19 Newman, Kevin – now ranked 19th best prospect in baseball

    So lets keep this in mind —- whoever we get at 1:1 will likely be the top prospect in our system next year (assuming JP Crawford is in majors)

    — Crawford is ranked #2 on this list by the way after Luca Giolito

    1. TommyGunn…..a different perspective on the 1.1 from Mike Murphy of Phillies Nation:
      “Should Phillies fans think the savior of the team is coming? Probably not. There are no guarantees. Since 1985 only 12 number one overall picks have become All-Stars. Only six have been honored as a league Most Valuable Player and only one has come up with a Cy Young Award. In fact, only one Hall of Famer was a first overall pick: Ken Griffey Jr. (Chipper Jones should be next in line, his ballot will be in 2017). Aside from a few no-doubt-about-it names such as Bryce Harper, Carlos Correa, and Joe Mauer, there really should not be a lot of hype surrounding the first overall pick the MLB amateur draft.”

      1. This is very true as well. I agree with that writer. This pick is likely not going to be savior. It’s likely not going to help the major league team within the next two years. But….it is going to be a great prospect, probably the best in our system next year. Its going to be a great talent. If anyone thinks we shouldn’t add Kyle Lewis or Corey Ray because we have roman Quinn or Dylan cozens, you are nuts. None of us have any idea what happens once this guy hits pro ball but whoever it is, its going to be a tremendous talent and a great prospect.

  22. Has anyone made physical logistical notation (put down on paper) the draft slots of the players (pitcher) the phils have gotten recently?
    Eshelman #2
    Appel #1
    Thompson # 1 or 2?
    Elfin #2 or 4
    Ascher
    Eichhoff 15th?
    Lively 4th round?

    I had looked them up, but didn’t write them down to relay. Only 1 was below 4th round (Eichoff). 3 seco.d rounders and 1 first rounder.

    Tyler Goeddel was a 1sr round pick.

    1. Eshelman was a #2
      Velasquez was #2
      Thompson was #2
      N Williams was a #2
      Eflin was a #1
      Appel was #1
      Goedell was a #1

    1. Not added to org recently, but Tommy Joseph also a 1st rd pick I believe. And nick Williams a 2nd rd pick

  23. Thompson a 2nd rd pick. Eflin was a comp rd A pick, so I think officially they count those as 1st rd picks? Either way, he was basically drafted between 1st and 2nd rd pick

  24. Last week, somebody asked about guys in this draft who were previously drafted by the Phillies. Jeff Ellis from Scout has this:
    “Kyle Nowlin is another former Ohio prep player. He now plays at Eastern Kentucky. The senior outfielder also happens to lead the NCAA in home runs. He currently has 21; there are a few players tied for second with 19. Over the weekend, he went deep twice, and his other two hits were doubles. Nowlin, for the past two years, has been one of the top power hitters in the NCAA. He was an unsigned 30th-round pick a year ago by the Phillies. As a senior sign, I expect someone will call his name in the middle rounds. Nowlin walks and strikes out a lot, but the right-handed power potential is worth a cheap lottery ticket for some team.”

    http://www.scout.com/mlb/scouting/story/1672274-2016-mlb-draft-full-count-trends-5-23?s=309

  25. AJ Puk in action tonight (SEC Network/Watch ESPN app) when Florida takes on LSU in the SEC Tournament.

        1. I hope the Phillies are not one of them.
          He has never started one game at Lousiville and totaled 65 innings pitched over three years. But his whiff ratio this year is astronimical
          I give those teams, who think they can convert him, one thing in their favor….he isn’t burned out

    1. Funny I love Will Craig and Senzel as my college bats . Moniak and Kieboom as the Hs bats and Groome and Whitney as my hs arms. College arms Hudson, Lauer not be 1.1 BUT That’s mine.

    2. Groome is among the best HS arms in FB, Changeup, Breaking Ball and Control. It’s going to sadden me when he makes his much hyped debut for the Braves in September 2020.

      Moniak is growing on me more and more these days. Also surprised to see Nolan Jones show up a few times. Didn’t know he had that kind of power!

    1. On a 80 mph Fb lol nah I don’t know that game Mercer won on a mercy rule in the 7th. 13 1 see that’s that league high score games.

  26. I watched ‘Ole Miss beat S Carolina this afternoon. ‘Ole Miss CF JB Woodman is a guy I’ve been hoping the Phillies take in the second or third round. He went 2 for 2 (including a double) today with 3 BB’s.

  27. Puk’s second inning … 17 pitches, 95-97 MPH fastball. 0 R, i H, 1 K, 1 double play ground ball.

  28. Puk through 7 IP. 103 pitches. 4 H, 2 BB, 7 K. Was throwing 95 in the seventh inning. I’m assuming he’s finished for the night.

  29. Puk’s final line … 7.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 7 K. He threw 118 pitches (I believe). Florida’s defense was very shaky in the 8th inning. All in all, Puk was good. He looked like he could be a work horse. It was a night game, and he has pitched better at nights than in day games. He’s not a slam dunk front line starter, but he definitely has the tools for an organization to work with and with some patience he could become a very good MLB pitcher. He needs to be more consistent with his slider. FB was 94-98 MPH. His command was better than he had been showing most of this season. He also fielded his position well.

    1. He seems to have proven himself to be an acceptable 1-1. But it also seems that he may have hit his ceiling.

      1. Puk. First time I saw him. Big time arm. Now I know why the scouts are so high on him. Like the announcer said they would love to get him into there system. This kid with the right pitching coach could be a ace for years. Jeff if my ceiling is a left hander who hit 98 with that slider, and possible change that could get better. I Take that all day long.

        1. rocco…..Puk seems to be back in the running as the 1.1. Came up big in a big game. As his coach said this year has been an up and down season for him, but still more ups. Lets hope Logan Shore wins their double elim game and he gets to go again in the SEC tournament. He will also have at least one CWS game.

  30. 7. 1 ings 6 hits 2 walks 7 k’s 2 runs . He was throwing 98 early went down to 93 95 better control there . Slider is good and bad when it backs up easy hittable. Scouts say work in process ok so will take some time . Then So say move up fast to be big league. So which is it ? Florida in fight right now 3 3 in the 11. Better lose today cause they have Dakota Hudson and Miss st if they win .they lose Alabama they aren’t good.

    1. Tim……you mentioned earlier in the week he falls to the third base side of the field on his follow thru. it didn’t seem that bad at all…no different then most lefties.
      But what he does however, is stands on the third base side of the rubber when he begins his delivery, so he will always appear to be leaning left towards third.

      1. romus The big issue with him is control of his fastball like they said last night. But mechanics is something we hope. he can fixed. One big red flag to me is Biddle. Aumont and possibly Appel. control issue and they didn’t get fix. But with that stuff I believe you have to try. He imo could be a Kershaw with his stuff. if he gets control. But I never saw Groome. and only tape on Lewis. Senzel. Moniak.

        1. rocco…you mentioned Clayton Kershaw….his first 220 innings in the minors, up thru age 20, his control was a not so terrific at 3.7 BB/9. Puk just turned 21 last month, so he may still have physical maturity issues going on.

        2. My issues with Puk are still his control problems and secondary stuff. I don’t see him as someone who will move quickly through the system and to me that’s part of the reason why you’re taking a college player so high. His inconsistency still makes me incredibly nervous about taking him 1.1 even in this draft.

      2. His stretch is worse still has to show endurance . They were hitting some went right too players. That’s a lot of work to be done with him more then you want as a 1.1 .what did the Phillies Almaraz say it’s a talent to put a baseball exactly were you want it . They took Falter last because of his control . This isn’t the old Phillies where load toolsy players apply. Just by drafting C know for his hittable tool and Falter know for his pitchabilty and trading for Eshelman is showing where his team is headed . Puk and Lewis are know for there load tools , Moniak know for his hittabilty the nearest college pitcher is Hudson who pitches tonight against Lsu . He has back to back shout outs and has a .193 Era against the same Sec players . See Hudson only throws 97 with a Split like Neris and slider . This K/9 is great as is his W/9.

        1. Its about projectibility and body of work
          Hudson was a reliever last year and his freshman was unspectacular.
          This year he came on.
          Puk, with 184 innings total….has been steady for three years and the last two asa the starter.
          Will see where the Phillies go with that 1.1……could be a hitter like Moniak which is still not a bad choice.

          1. Puk didn’t really come on until after the Crane thing last yr. Hudson control showed up in the Cape cod league last yr where he dominated. Puk control command still comes and goes.

          2. Not being a scout. I still believe passing on that kid puk will be hard to do. That fastball exploses. and his slider is good.

          3. Puk first yr was both the one big difference is w/9 is the highest this yr. Plus 3 yrs only 1 complete game . That shows you control command issues I wish he did the Cape cod league last yr.

          4. The hole entire Boston Red Sox front office is there tonight watching Hudson . Great just what I need Groome Cy young award winner in 2021 in NL, Hudson Cy young award winner in Al .

            1. I really like Hudson from the couple of games I’ve watched of his this year. Shows much better command and control as compared to Puk. I think his secondary stuff is better too. He would be an interesting choice especially if they could sign him for a really nice under slot deal.

  31. Corey Ray went 1 for 3 last night against Wake Forest. With 2 walks, 2 runs scored, a K and a SB.

    1. Understand according to BA….three or four teams have multiple picks prior to 42 and it may be difficult for the Phillies to make a ‘deal’ for an over-slot they desire.

    2. BA Chat:
      Brian (Alabama): I’ve heard you guys discuss this on the podcast, but is there any chance teams like the Phillies, Reds and Braves can float a guy down to the 40s? Will it happen this year?
      John Manuel: As we discussed in the podcast, I think it is harder to float guys down that far this year because of teams such as San Diego, Washington and St. Louis, even the Dodgers, are all in the way. LA has 3 picks from 20-36, going to be hard to sneak guys through there. Also, the strength of this draft is more 25-75 than it is 1-10 or 1-20. The guys who teams might try to float down are guys like Matt Manning, who is reportedly floating a large price tag that not too many teams can meet. He could be this year’s Daz Cameron who “fell” to the Astros’ 3rd pick last year and got $4 million.

    3. TD (Philadelphia): I’ve heard rumors of a deal between Quantril and the Padres at 24 or 25. Any chance they actually take him and pick 8 for a below-slot bonus and then use their savings to take talented high schoolers in the later rounds and offer big bonuses?
      John Manuel: That is one scenario, and they may have to take him there if they think another team, such as Toronto, were to take him. Quantrill has worked out and thrown bullpens for teams, and two that I have been able to confirm are the Padres and Blue Jays. I kind of like your plan, it makes sense if you believe in the player. That said, it’s risky to take a kid 8th overall who hasn’t pitched competitively in more than a year. Our reports on Quantrill’s stuff (at his best) and makeup are very, very good, though his breaking ball is his third pitch, and I’m not sure that’s the greatest profile for a RHP.

  32. Any comments on Dakota Hudson last night?
    His velo was good at mid-90s and touching higher.
    IP5….H9…R4…ER2..BB1…K6…HR0…BF27…ERA2.35

    1. 9 singles 2 really bad errors one on a pop up. Lsu now bet 2 pitchers going in the top ten . Announces said All Hudson stuff was hard he needs a off speed pitch. Lsu said they all swing down on his ball cause if you swing up it wouldn’t make it out of the infield. 97 mph fb 93 spilt. Slider 89. Like I said the entire Boston Red Sox front office was on hand to see Hudson . 1 mock has him going to the Rockies .

    2. Announcer ‘s did say Puk avg ings per start is 4.23 that’s a little low. The most he ever throw in a yr 78 ing .this yr Gators have to win tonight against Miss st to stay in the tournament. Old miss and Lsu have 0 losses .Miami and F st are loaded wake too.

  33. Romus not seeing all the kids. its hard to pick. But I really fell in love with puk. That is a real talent. but risky. But I would take the chance. But moniak looks really good for young kid. but so many factors in scouting him. I Saw a catch he made in a game. it was like the one mays made in 1954 world series. He hits to all fields. But I don’t know the bat speed. how he runs. and most important how do you project him with better competition.

  34. It is getting close, and while I am still on Groome, I acknowledge that it is less and less likely that they take him. Puk has always scared me, and none of the College bats excite me at all. So, Moniak seems like a strong possibility. They may just be set on Puk, I know, but he has had ample opportunity to show how good he is but keeps lacking consistency.

  35. Just posted on BA:

    1. PHILLIES: Phillies scouting director Johnny Almaraz was part of scouting departments in Atlanta (international) and Cincinnati that had success with prep outfielders drafted highly such as Adam Dunn (he was signing scout), Jay Bruce and Jason Heyward. Hall of Fame executive Pat Gillick, who has hit the scouting circuit hard for the Gatos all spring, also is said to favor Moniak.

    If he’s picked No. 1 overall, the La Costa Canyon High senior would be the fifth San Diego-area No. 1 pick since 2000, joining Adrian Gonzalez (2000), Matt Bush (2004), Stephen Strasburg (2009) and Brady Aiken (2014). PICK: Mickey Moniak, of |

      1. If we’re not going to take the higher risk and reward player in Groome then YEAH let’s take the position player. That name will catch on fast around the DelVal.

    1. Good see they aren’t locked in on Puk. I’d be satisfied with Moniak as the pick. Selecting the best “up the middle” HS position player in the country is a good thing.

  36. From Keith Law chat today:

    How much do you think bonus demands are going to factor into who goes at #1 and #2 overall? Given that there aren’t any consensus players at #1 and #2, do you expect that the Phillies and Reds are going to look to go more underslot than you’d typically see with the #1 and #2 overall picks in a generic draft?

    I’m almost positive that the Phillies are going to make offers to multiple players at 1 and take the player who will accept the best deal – the numbers may be different for each player, but regardless of who they sign they’d be in position to grab a top talent (Manning?) who falls to their pick at 42.

  37. I said this a week ago. I think they target 5 players. Puk. groome. pint. moniak. lewis. and see who will take least amount. I not sure these are the five. but something like these. I never heard them associate with pint.

        1. If Puk asks for $7M…then the Phillies have $3.5M for the 42 pick.
          IMO, Puk signs at the same rate as last year’s number one and gets $6.75M.

          1. Everyone of Puk family played Football 4 yrs his Dad’s a Doc Uncle Lawyer , other Uncle investment banker . There not hurting for now money not that 7 mil isn’t a lot . nobody knows who his agent is that would help. Also Gillies really likes Moniak you know the pull he has.

      1. Why are we sure Puk would ask for more than Groome and Pint? College players have less leverage than High Schoolers because if they go back to school and come out as seniors, they’ll have no leverage at all.

  38. And there is also this doozy from Law (and I’d be all in on this, especially if the guy at 42 is Quantrill) …

    Could Blake Rutherford possibly fall to 40 due to outrageous bonus demands?

    I had a scout broach that possibility to me yesterday. It’s an interesting one, because he was seen coming into the year as a potential top 5 guy and is almost certainly not going up there. I could also see the Phils cutting a deal with him at 1, then trying to pay someone $5 million at 42. There are a lot of possibilities right now with the lack of clarity up top and all these high school kids with upside but no price tags yet.

    1. If Phillies cut a deal with Rutherford at 42….IMO, then they will pass on Moniak at 1.1, and take a pitcher like Groome or Puk…do not see Pint as their choice.

      1. Law was saying the Phils could sign Rutherford for below slot at 1.1, then spend 5 million for someone at 42. I think he suspects Matt Manning to 42. The total slot for those two picks is 10.5 million, He’s saying they split that total more evenly on two players.

      2. Thinking more about this. If they’re going to cut a deal with someone at 1.1 to be able to offer 5 million to 42, I would rather they cut a deal with Zack Collins than Rutherford

        1. Yes , and Collins is a college guy….may be easier dealing with him than Rutherford.
          I guess having more catchers in the pipeline is not a bad thing, though Collins may be expected up sometime in 2018…as a catcher or 1B/LFer

            1. Yes…..in fact Knapp. Collins and Alfaro all have hitting highlighted on their resume. They all could stand to have a little more defensive acumen..

          1. So, that’s the plan, Romus and Rocco. We draft Collins first. Pay him 1.6 money (4 million) and save 5 million dollars to spend at 42 and beyond.

            1. That is a pure ‘Hinkie’ work-the-process move.
              Not sure Matt Klentak is a Hinkie kind of guy.

    2. Quantrill has worked out with both the Pads and Blue Jays…..understand they may grab him prior to 42.
      Wish Matt Klentak would pull the trigger on a trade for one of 35 thru a 40 pick.

      1. I read that, too. However, it would be hard for those teams to offer Quantrill 5 million dollars.

        1. Padres at number eight have a 3.6M slot and could still go over.
          But is there anywhere reported that has Quantrill demanding a $5M signing bonus?
          Coming off TJ I would think he is not demanding that much.

          1. John Manuel chief at BA tweeted he heard Micky Mo was going 1.1 about 10 days ago. He had to keep confirming. Will see june 9 th. That’s what the re tweet said, Gillick and Manuel are backing him . Another heavy tail is Manning wants 4 or 5 mil and he hasn’t signed with a major college yet. That’s top money so there might be a deal already done. Now the Phillies if the get Mickey Mo could make a deal with a lefty arm with control , Woodman could be had in the 3rd or 4th.

  39. I’d Rather they take Groome or Puk than a position player. A left-handed starting pitching prospect is more of a need than an outfielder, imo.

  40. The more I look, the more I can’t decide. I think I’m leaning Ray, Lewis, Groome. Ray because he has solid tools and a lot of positional flexibility. Then Lewis, because he has power and a high BB%. Finally Groome, who is a young senior lefty, with command and a smooth delivery.

    I think Moniak’s tools are below the other outfielders’, and also challenged less in HS so a little more risk. Pint seems like an injury risk, and Puk has too much walk trouble.

    But I’m not certain enough to get upset about any pick the Phils make. I trust their drafting a lot after their last 3.

    1. I don’t see where Moniak’s tools are any less than Corey Ray’s tools. If Ray was a definite CF, I could see it. If he had the arm to play RF I could see it. But what you have there is a Left fielder with medium power.

      1. This is pretty much my reasoning for not taking Ray. If he could stick in center I’d be fine with him. This is also why I would give Lewis a long hard look. A power bat capable of playing RF and he seems to have pretty good plate discipline even if it’s not as good as the numbers suggest. Groome, Rutherford, Moniak, and Lewis would be the 4 I’d look to draft.

      2. You could easily be right; I thought Ray had almost as good a chance at sticking in CF as Moniak, but with more power, and still with a good hit tool. But if Ray doesn’t stick in CF, then Moniak and Lewis will likely both be better.

  41. Keith Law’s Mock Draft 2.0 out this afternoon. Law picks Puk at 1.1
    “I think it’s more likely Puk than the field at this point. The Phillies have kept their short list at five names, doing their due diligence on Puk, Kyle Lewis, Corey Ray, Blake Rutherford and Mickey Moniak, but I’d bet more heavily on Puk now than I would have in the last mock.”

    Also has:
    2. Reds … Kyle Lewis
    3. Braves … Jason Groome
    4. Rockies … Mickey Moniak
    5. Brewers … Delvin Perez

    And:
    Riley Pint at # 9 to Tigers
    Blake Rutherford #10 to White Sox
    Corey Ray #11 to Mariners

    1. If Reds would take Puk with the second pick, that pretty much means he can insist on no less than 6.5 million dollars. That’s the 1.3 slot. I would guess the Phillies would pay Puk about 6.75 million if they take him.

  42. What was K law going to do agree with BA no money in that . What was K law reasoning going Puk because everyone else has . So perfect game has K Lewis going to us , BA has Mickey Mo , K Law has Puk who’s right. True only the Phillies kn on June 9 will all know . Facts Puk costs the most 2 Florida most likely will go far in the CWS . So that backs up his signing and minor league starting which he really needs. He’s the only 1 with medical issue’s back . Moniak Mo has a 60 to 80 hit tool ,60 speed tool broke the Socal record for triple’s this yr. Can stay in center price ? . Lewis has Power , hit tool but plays in a small offensive Confence that carries the mercy rule now . My money is on Mickey Mo sounds better then C scouting report . Same high hit tool but much faster and D plays better. Puk sounds like ba lot of work for a 1.1 1 complete game in College career 2 wins this yr. 4.23 ings per start.

  43. Jason Groome hs career ended 12 k’s 2 1 earned 40 ing 90 k 12 w . He’s going to Denver and San Diego in the next wk. Article did say Phillies would have to put up with Groome going to Braves and tormenting them for yrs. He did say Phillies have been in contact.

    1. It does appear to be a two man race between Puk and Moniak. Not sure Rutherford, Ray and Lewis are as high on their board anymore.
      If it is Puk. then I hope they do strike an over slot deal with someone like a Matt Manning, HS RHP, at the 42nd ….that could be a real coup.

      1. There’s a very good possibility Manning aready has a deal in play for 4 or 5 mil.he has not signed on to a major college . Phillies taking 2 pitchers at the top highly unlikely.look for a Kieboom bat at the begining of rd 2. If it is Mickey Mo then look for a arm.there Pitching is pretty good already it’s the O that looks like crap. Plus they have now starters in Eflin, Thompson .the rest are close I’d rather have an OF .

        1. Tim … Matt Manning has been verbally committed to play baseball for Loyola Marymount University since January of last year. That’s why he can command a large signing bonus.

          1. Ok there’s still a rumor he sign with a mlb in theory . Someone give him 4 or 5 mil last yr he wasn’t the prospect he is now.

  44. Florida will face Texas A&M on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN2…but not Puk, but Logan Shore as the starting pitcher, since he was skipped yesterday.

Comments are closed.