Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #28

In a close race, Tom Windle was selected the Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Poll’s 27th ranked prospect.  He received 82 of 331 votes (25%).  He finished slightly ahead of Jose Pujols (74 votes, 22%).  Victor Arano finished a distant third (38 votes, 11%).

The Chicago White Sox drafted Windle out of high school in the 28th round of the 2010 MLB Amateur Draft.  He declined to sign and attended the University of Minnesota.  Three years later he was drafted as a junior in the 2nd round of the 2013 MLB Amateur Draft by the Los Angeles Dodgers.  He signed his first major league contract on June 12, 2013.

Windle started in 37 of his 39 appearances in his first two season in the Dodgers organization.  He pitched well in his first season with Great Lakes in full season A ball.  His numbers took the expected hit in the hitter friendly California League in his second season.

Windle was traded to the Phillies along with Zach Eflin for Jimmy Rolliins and cash on December 19, 2014.  He was initially assigned to Clearwater but broke spring training on the Reading roster in 2015.

Windle wind up

Windle made 14 starts with Reading before he was converted to a reliever.  He had a 5.35 ERA in 70.2 IP, 40 BB, and 43 K as a starter.   He posted a 1.69 ERA in 20 relief appearances. In 26.2 IP he allowed 11 BB and 23 K.

Windle Glendale AFL

Windle has a low 90s fastball and has touched 95-96 mph.

Top 30 so far:

  1. Crawford
  2. N. Williams
  3. Thompson
  4. Appel
  5. “C” Randolph
  6. Quinn
  7. Alfaro
  8. Kilome
  9. Knapp
  10. Eflin
  11. Hoskins
  12. Kingery
  13. Pinto
  14. Cozens
  15. Tocci
  16. Goeddel
  17. Medina
  18. Cordero
  19. Eshelman
  20. Canelo
  21. Lively
  22. Pivetta
  23. Ortiz
  24. Grullon
  25. Sweeney
  26. Tirado
  27. Windle

Next up is your selection for #28.

75 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #28

  1. Keith Law on ranking prospects: “… When ranking players, I consider scouting reports on players… my own, other scouts and front-office executives… as well as performance, adjusted for age and context. (I favor) higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects that are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices…

      1. VOR….thought Nick Williams at 74 was a little low. But he stands true to what he has said about Williams for two years now. However, IMO, if Williams can bring up his BB rate a tick more like he did last season from overall 5% to almost 7%, and maybe in the 8 or 9 range, he should get more consideration from him.

        1. I looked at it a little differently, Romus. I didn’t expect him to rank him at all, based on his past comments. Law’s basically called him terrible in the past.
          Also, though the number ranks weren’t impressive, I was pleased with his comments on Thompson and Appel’s skills. Gives hope they can be difference makers.

          1. Yes, that could be the case…..down deep he probably didn’t want to be put Wiliiams in his top 100 …..but he really would have been the only one of the major pubs in doing that, I guess he more or less decide to just put him in the lower quarter of it.
            He also dropped Alfaro, but most all the others did also.
            He definitely doesn’t follow the current crowd thought in his rankings….and, I have to give him credit, he has admitted to past mistakes or omissions.

            1. really im still waiting for the apology Franco , I guess its only been half a year but he basically said he wasnt even going to make the majors

  2. Pujols is NOT in my top 30. In the 3 years in the organization, his 17 to 19 y/o seasons, he hasn’t shown much. He needs a huge breakout season to get into this top 30 discussion. His 31.6 K rate last year was pretty bad but better than his 33.8 over his 3 years. His stats look a lot like Hewitt’s. Luckily Pujols is a league higher in his 19th year than Hewitt was. I just haven’t seen anything to get excited about. Luke Williams looks a lot better on paper and in the real world. If he develops some power, which I think he’s projected to, he’s got a big upside

    1. what I said yesterday to tim concerning Pujols …..what the Phillies did with Tocci, I think they will do for Pujols. If LKW in 2016, is not up to par, he will repeat there in 2017 and hopefully rake and get the mid-season promo to CLW in 2017 as Tocci did last year. He is Rule 5 eligible in Dec 2017, but if he doesn’t make it to AA level, he can probably be left exposed and not claimed, again similar to Tocci and also the Mets’ Berrera. The Phillies do have a few years to try to get him going in the right direction….but as for correcting that ‘hitch’ in his swing that was mentioned earlier…after 4 fall instructs you would think it would be a dead issue now.
      He was compared to Dom Santana, back in 2012 after he signed, a few years ago by one pub, but obviously, since then he has not put up the same metrics.

  3. I actually like Pujols quit a bit but I agree that he needs a good season in 16 to stay on the prospect path.
    Who will be the guy next year who jumps the most in our list? This year it was Knapp who jumped the most. Next year? Ortiz? Lucas Williams? Falter? Luis?

  4. Law also said we have the sixth best system, which is nice.

    Surprised Matt Imhof won’t crack our Top 30. Second round pick just two years ago, wasn’t lights-out at CLW, but did okay as a 21 year old there.

    1. Imhof suffered an injury in April 2015 after only two starts. He missed a month before returning to the rotation. We don’t know how much (if any) this may have slowed his development. One of the biggest knocks against Imhof has been his lack of velocity, even for a lefty. I recall reporting a lot of high 80s, T90 last season. So, his not cracking the top 30 doesn’t surprise me.

      Same for LHP Brandon Leibrandt. Mid-season injury. Lower FB velo. End of season injury. Not going to crack the top 30.

      1. Ya, I’m still undecided on my 30th spot I have about 5-6 names that I could slot in there. From listening to everyone here and not knowing much about Imhoff, he is sliding towards the back end of that list.

        On another note Jim, I will be the 1st – 4th. Maybe we can catch a game together more towards the end of the week. Could also catch you for dinner or a beer anytime that week.

        See you in a couple. shoot me your email address again…unless its obvious in my email addresses from my email a few weeks ago

    2. Imhoff being less than “lights out” statiscally, is not what holds him back. He doesn’t have any pitches. He’s a Lefthander that doesn’t have a change-up. That automatically puts his ceiling at bull-pen specialist. If that’s not bad enough, he went from having a plus Fastball in college, to a below average one as a pro.

  5. I’m interested to hear how Windle compares to Edubray Ramos. I was so impressed with Ramos at Reading, thought he would be more highly thought of.

    1. These guys are about as different as two relief pitchers could be. One is a big, rangy lefty with a good FB and a nice slider and, the other is a smallish strong-armed righty. They are very hard to compare, but as far as prospect rankings go, I’d give Windle a slight nod because he’s lefty, he’s bigger, he has some secondary pitches and he still might bounce back into a rotation spot. I think the margin for error is larger with Windle.

      1. Ramos has a good breaking ball as well, and he has better control than Windle. I guess Windle has the LOOGY role he can kind of fall back on, but I would take Ramos over him.

  6. Pujols again. Forgot to vote yesterday, so I guess I am not allowed to shake my head in dismay over Windle’s narrow victory.

    I’m surprised that Encarnacion is not picking up much (if any) support. He was #21 in 2014 and #26 last year. People have just kind of forgotten about him because he was 17 and playing in the GCL last year. I suppose you could make the argument that that system has gotten so much better that there’s no room for an unknown quantity like Encarnacion on the list anymore. But it’d be hard to argue that he’s taken a step back.

    1. Encarnacion wasn’t forgotten. He’s a 1B only prospect, that didn’t hit well enough in his 2nd try at the GCL.

        1. Ok, point taken. I was trying to argue that it’s a bit arbitrary to knock down Encarnacion based on his stat line in the GCL at age 17. But I know you live down there and see a lot of the games so if you’re unimpressed I’ll take your word for it.

  7. I guess it’s a matter of which Reading games one saw. I also saw him at Reading and was not super impressed, largely because of his lack of control. Looking at his stats now, I see that he was pretty much lights out at CLW in basically 50 IP, with an other-worldly WHIP of only 0.75 and an outstanding ERA, with a K-rate of 8.5/9. Yeah, based on doing that at age 22, he deserves to make our top 30. He made it to Reading, late in the season for SSS 20 IP, which is really good for a 22 year old who lost two seasons to injury. I see that my Reading impression is not out of line to the data, his BB rate ballooned 1.1 to 4.4/9 in moving from CLW to Reading. Perhaps he tired — he only pitched 34 and then 44 IP in the prior 2 seasons. His Reading WHIP was still a relatively good 1.33. Looking at his game logs, I see he did very well in July in Reading (8 IP) but then his walk rate really increased in August (9 IP), with an improvement his final two games in Sept.

  8. I voted for Brown again, but would have no problem with Arano or Pujols going here. Lucas Williams is also interesting- John Sickels likes him- but I have him just outside of my top 30.

    1. Knapp jumping to 96 is a pretty big deal. It’s not easy for a 24 year-old catcher, coming off his first truly plus year as a hitter to land in the top 100 – way to go, Andrew!

      1. Agree…it is a big jump and deal for him. Though he is bunched down there with two other catchers….the only catchers ahead of him would be, IMO, Contreras,(on this portion of the list), McGuire (top 50 I would think) and maybe even Alfaro, though have suspicions Alfaro may have dropped out of the top 50…tonight they make the remaining announcements.

  9. Incredibly happy about how much positive change has occurred in the lasts 12-16 months. Guys that were squarely in the top 15-20 are not likely to make the top 30. Improved drafting, quality trades, increased LA focus, and positioning for the future has really given me a ton of hope for this organization.

  10. I said it once: and I’ll say it again: Brock Stassi has shown some development. Many of those on the list are largely about promise, not results. He should have been on the list.

  11. If you are heading to Vegas, get to the sportsbook and play the Phillies ‘over’.
    Vegas over/under win total for the Phillies 66.5.

    1. I was just reading about that Romus (Phillies win total). I’m all over the over. I think they win 70 games +. 65-66 is the absolute floor for me. This is a much better roster than last year’s with a significant number of reinforcements on the way.

      1. One of my friends thinks they can win 81!
        Right….if Harvey, DeGrom and Thor all end up with arm problems and Harper is out for about three months.

    1. rocco….you cannot see them winning four more games than last year? The pitching staff..less Harang starting 29….. Williams, 21….. Sean O’Sullivan, 13…..David B., 15…..Sev G., 7…..Alec Asher, 7…..Kevin Correia, 5…..Dusty McG and Phil Aumont one apiece.
      That’s 99 games. Surely they should be able to do better than last year, if only to reach 70 wins.

      1. And also less Hamels, Papelbon, and Giles. Biggest plus is we won’t have ‘first-half 2015’ Utley in middle of lineup.

      1. I actually think it’s going to be closer to 74-88 than 63-99 (damn, how did they manage not to lose 100 games last year? – that’s pretty amazing in and of itself). This is going to get really fun between late June and the end of the year as young players establish themselves and really solid prospects begin to earn promotions.

        I still expect them to finish in the botttom 10, which should give them a great pick next June and, if the right free agent is there next winter, that would be the time to buy – before it costs you a first round pick (I don’t even like the idea of losing a second round pick, but sooner or later they are going to sign a free agent). I expect them to be a fun but mediocre team in 2017 and then 2018 could be interesting.

          1. Gotta wonder with the Angels outlook bleak for future that a Trout trade may come in future. They may ask for 10 prospects/players for him and to take on the Pujols contract.

            1. Wonder what the most players traded for one guy in history is? Did a little googling without success. Obviously the five-for-one Von Hayes trade comes to mind, but I’m guessing there have been other trades involving more players for 1.

      2. Romus I have not a clue on how many wins. Just like I haven’t really posted top thirty. You know that I need to see a player to judge him. I haven’t seen thee kids. so I have no clue if they are good or not. That being said, how do you rate a team.? when the only sure position is third base with franco . Spring training will tell us the other positons. I am not a mind reader like some. This team is like a abbott and Costello route. whos on f irst? what on second. and so on.

        1. rocco……can understand that, but CF with Herrera , right now, should be a sure position, I can see the first six weeks of his second season being a litmus test for him, say come mid-May.
          Well you did get third base spot on with ‘I dunno’. 🙂

  12. Baseball America put out the rankings on prospects for top 100 and another Phillie is listed that was not on other lists: Andrew Knapp

    The 3 lists consist with rankings:

    Crawford 4, 5, 6
    Williams 25, 64, 27
    Thompson 34, 55, 75
    Appel 64, 70, NA
    Alfaro 70, 96, NA
    Randolph NA, 84, 88
    Kilome 95, NA, NA
    Quinn 99, NA, NA
    Knapp NA, NA, 96

    Pretty impressive to have 9 different players thought of in top 100 by at least some.
    They are the top 9 on our list here as well.
    The next 4 Eflin, Hoskins, Kingery, and Pinto in my opinion could make their way onto these lists by next year if they have a good season. But so could others further down list but these are the most likely.

    1. You say that you believe Eflin, Hoskins, Kingery and Pinto could find there way onto top 100 lists in the future. With each of their current profiles, what would they have to do to be top 100 prospects?

      Pinto isnt a realistic candidate for a top 100 list. At his physical profile, Ricardo Pinto would have to double his strikeout rate to get anyone’s attention. Going from the best Pitching environmen in the minors, to one of the worse, won’t help his chances.

      1. Agree with you here, I’m a lot higher on Pinto than you are but I don’t think he has much of a realistic shot at be top 100. I really don’t think Eflin does either. If he did as well as he needs to be considered a top 100 prospect next year he would already be pitching for the Phillies and not be an eligible prospect.

        I do think Hoskins and Kingery do have a shot but both would have to have amazing years to get there.

        The player I think has the best shot to make one of those lists next year would be Medina.

    2. BobD…..Hoskins would have to hit 40HRs AND bat 325/395 to get close to being on the top 100…and then it will probably be in the high 80s or 90s.

      1. It’s funny, not EVERYBODY is dismissive of Hoskins. John Sickels seems to really like him and has him at 11 – right around where we have him.

        1. And even Jay Floyd, Phillies Nation and PhoulBallz has him at 14. So there are wide disparities in his evaluation. BA and BP do have their philosophy about right swinging first basemen and to some degree right swinging corner OFers. The hit tools ..both the ‘hit’ portion and the ‘power’ portion need to be 60plus or above for those players to get any consideration.

          1. Eflin, and Pinto are under valued as both should find way to majors as starters. If Eflin increases his K rate he could be a mid rotation starter. Pinto is young and a bit further away but he has had the success. Not every good starter is 6’6″

    3. BobD…Alfaro has been faliing in the rankings. Not to dissimilar to the Yankees Gary Sanchez prior to 2015. But Alfaro had that injury that has hampered him.
      If he can resurrect his hitting @ Reading, he should climb back into the top 100. I have to assume he will also be sent to the AFL to further help his development like Knapp did this past fall and also Sanchez.

  13. 66 wins seems like a pretty reasonable projection. Just looking at the Phillies fangraphs positional rankings:

    1B – ranked 30th
    2B – 30th
    SS – 22nd
    3B – 17th
    C – 29th
    LF – 30th
    CF – 27th
    RF – 28th
    SP – 23rd
    RP – 29th

    Granted their projections might be a little low on Herrera and Altherr, but 7 of the 10 positions we project to be bottom 4 in the league. We’re a pretty safe bet to score the fewest runs in baseball. For at least the first half of the season, 6 of our lineup slots are going to be occupied by Galvis, Hernandez, Howard/Ruf, Ruiz/Rupp, one of Goeddel/Asche/Bourjos, and the pitcher, With the exception of Crawford and maybe Knapp, most of the position player prospects aren’t going to be much help this year.

    On the pitching side, we’ll probably be just below average in the rotation, but our bullpen has a ton of question marks.

    I’m really excited about the second half of the season and I think we’ll take a major step forward in 2017, but I’d be very surprised if we finished with over 70+ wins. That’s not the worst thing – we’ll get another top 3 pick along with the large draft and international signing bonus pools.

      1. Here are a few who some could consider a notch above Franco going into his sophomore season:
        Seager, Kyle….Arenado, Nolan..Donaldson, Josh…Machado, Manny….Frazier, Todd….Carpenter, Matt….Lawrie, Brett….Bryant, Kris….Valbuena, Luis….Plouffe, Trevor……Moustakas, Mike….Longoria, Evan….Beltre, Adrian…..Solarte, Yangervis….Duffy, Matt.

      2. Also, it looks like 3B is the deepest projected infield position. Franco’s value would put him in the top ten for 1B, 2B, SS or Catcher.

        1. I dont think it works like that. Fielding WAR is a big part of that. His WAR would be significantly lower at 1B, just because the position doesn’t create a lot of WAR. He’d probably be 1 WAR player, at 1B, but a 5 WAR player, as an adequate catcher.

          1. Absolutely, I just meant that his his WAR total would translate to s higher ranking at most other positions. His actual value if we moved him to a different position would change pretty dramatically.

    1. @Otero, However many games the Phillies win in 2016, I think any scenario that has them in a position to spend a large international bonus pool in 2017 would be a disappointment, since most readers and fans hope the Phillies exceed this season’s allotment.

      1. Remember, a large international bonus pool of money that a team has , that is under the penalty, need not be wasted. The D-Backs were able to get two pitching prospects from the Phillies last year. So if a team is wise, they will trade that ‘dead-cash’ for additional prospects….and they are not 16-years old for the most part but already prospects, further developed along, in a system, hopefully at an A level or above.

      2. I agree, Jim. To Romus’ point, I was wondering exactly what happens in 2017 if they go over this year. So, let’s say their 2017 pool is $2M. I know they wouldn’t be able to sign anyone over $300K, but how would trading their pool money work? Would they have to trade in maximum of $300K increments? Could they trade it all to a single team for a better prospect?

        1. Yes, but let’s put that in perspective. Neither of the two players we traded would have made out top 30 list. I think Sam McWilliams might have just snuck into the end of our top 40. At the end of our current top 40, Matt Winkelman lists Lucas Williams, Encarnacion, Jesmuel Valentin, John Richy, and Alexis Rivero. At 41 and beyond, he has Brito, Bailey Falter, Cam Perkins, and Cord Sandberg. I can’t rank McWilliams above many of those guys. I like Bailey Falter and Sandberg more than I liked McWilliams. I ranked McWilliams higher than Whitehead. Whitehead was ‘just a guy’ to me. I think he would have ranked about #50, or lower. Point is, even if we had traded a better prospect, instead of two lesser ones, I doubt Arizona would have been able to get anyone who cracked our top 20, possibly not our top 25 — in other words, what is to be had from trading unspendable allocation wasn’t any big deal, at least in 2015.

          1. I liked McWilliams’ chances more than Cord Sandberg’s by a good margin. I’d also take his upside over Encarnacion and Perkins. He would have been my sleeper.

          2. allentown1….do know how many LA 16-year olds make it to the MLB? Do you know the percent?
            MLB teams sign approx. 20 to 30 every year, though not all 16-year olds, some are older.
            But whether or not Oliver or Taylor would have made this Phillies top 30 is irrelevant.
            Dave Stewart was happy in getting them for money he was not ever going to be able to use. And both should be pitching on their high A team this year
            Incidentally, Oliver was a 4th round pick, with potential when he was drafted two years ago. To imply the acquisition of two minor league pitchers…’from trading unspendable allocation wasn’t any big deal’ is absurd.

          3. Ok so I looked at the rules a little more closely. If I’m reading them correctly, a team can only acquire an additional 50% over their total allocation each year and teams for can only trade for slots. The weighting are such that if we finished with the worst record next year, our 2017 #1 slot ($3.6M) couldn’t be traded because it would already be more than 50% of every team’s allocation. We could package our 2,3 and 4 slots values, worth roughly $1.1M, and roughly 18 teams would have an allocation pool large enough to acquire them in a single deal. Please note I’m using 2015 allocation figures.

            If we were to trade $1.1M in one deal, I think we’d get probably one guy who’d rank between 15-20 (depending on the market) and a John Richy/Lucas Williams type player. The Dodgers traded about $1.1M last year for Chase DeJong and Tim Locastro. Locastro would maybe rank about 45th in our system, but DeJong looks like a less risky version of Thomas Eshelman (ranked 19th in our poll).

            1. Oh, and one more thing. Assuming the talent in the 2016 and 2017 pools are roughly even (I know that might not be true), it might make more sense waiting until 2017 to break the bank. Having the #1 slot is a pretty big advantage for how much money you can add via trade. Using 2015 as an example, the D-backs had a pool of $5.3M, so they could add $2.6M via trade. With the system depth we have now, trading several prospects in the 40-60 range in separate trades could get us up to roughly $8M in our bonus pool. We’d then be able to still go all-in in 2017.

              The best way to go seems to be:

              -If acquiring bonus $, try to do it in smaller chunks with lesser prospects.
              -If trading bonus $, try to do it at once and buy one guy in the 15-20 range.

            2. otero…..the number one slot last year was the DBacks at approx. $5.4M, if there is a slight increase I would think the Phillies allocation this year will be in the neighborhood of $6M…..if they plan on not breaking the penalty prior to July, then they could still try to trade to get 50% added for a total of $9M. Now the way prospects are signing these days ..between $1M thru $4M, that may get 2/3 prospects, since you will need a little surplus for signing others at the lower bonuses.
              However,if Armenteros has not already agreed with the Braves, then IMO, offering him a bonus that would result in the penalty would not be a barrier.
              The Phillies will still get the $6M allocation….then Klentak can trade that money for additional more advanced prospects.
              Bottom-line…Cashman, Daniels, Epstein, and many other GMs can see this as a very viable workaround from the MLB $300K penalty imposed upon them.

  14. My friend’s son asked me who’d going to be the next Champion sports team in Philly ? I SAID Villanova, Flyers, Phillies, Eagles. Sixer’s.

  15. Jim – it’s been awfully cold up north, I’m guessing that many of the players are already on the fields every day working out. Have you been out to the complex at all? It was over 70 down there today, a beautiful sunny day. Thx

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