Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #13

We finally have a decision on the 12th prospect in the Reader Top 30.  After an unprecedented head-to-head run off between Scott Kingery and Ricardo Pinto, Kingery has emerged as the 12th prospect in the organization with 258 of 500 votes cast.  The race was close all day, but Kingery was able to maintain a steady 52% of the votes since early afternoon.  After I posted the last update at 6:00PM, Pinto closed to within 10 votes, but never got closer and trailed by 16 when I closed the poll.

Scott Kingery is a 5’10, right-handed hitting second baseman.  He went undrafted as a 5’7, high school shortstop.  With no D1, D2, or D3 scholarships offered, he was prepared to attend junior college in Arizona.  While participating in a late summer tournament, he was offered a “recruited walk-on spot” at the University of Arizona.  This guaranteed him a place on the fall roster but no guarantee for the spring roster.  Kingery made the most of his opportunity.

Kingery played in the outfield in college before he transitioned to second base.  His double play partner was highly rated Kevin Newman.  Kingery has speed and hits for contact.  He won consecutive PAC-12 batting championships.  He grew over 3 inches and added 25-30 pounds by the end of his junior year.  The Phillies drafted Kingery in the second round with the 48th pick in the 2015 Amateur Draft.  Keith Law had him going as the 26th pick in a May mock draft.

There are high expectations for Kingery.  Lots of people think he can be a fast mover through the organization.  After signing, he reported to Lakewood and slashed .250/.314/.337/.652 in 282 plate appearances.  He was successful stealing in  11 of 12 attempts.  He struck out only 43 times (15.2%), but only managed 18 walks (6.4%).  Kingery committed just 4 errors and posted a .986 Fld%.

Kingery-Zona

So far the Top 30 looks like this:

  1. J.P. Crawford
  2. Nick Williams
  3. Jake Thompson
  4. Mark Appel
  5. “C” Randolph
  6. Roman Quinn
  7. Jorge Alfaro
  8. Franklyn Kilome
  9. Andrew Knapp
  10. Zach Eflin
  11. Rhys Hoskins
  12. Scott Kingery

I have a recent request to add Brandon Leibrandt, and have already received requests to add Severino Gonzalez, Luis Encarnacion, Josh Tobias, and Yacksel Rios.  Maybe a couple of thes guys make it to the poll next week.

I have recent write-ins for Moore, Asher, Martin, Harris, Canelo, and Cordero.  Also Walding, Ruf. Brett Myers, and Pat Burrell.

The e-mail addresses for prospect lists and the addition of a prospect to the poll are –

prospectpoll@yahoo.com using the Subject – My Prospect List

prospectpoll@yahoo.com using the Subject – Add Prospect

Next up is your selection for the #13 prospect in the organization.

70 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #13

  1. Sweeney. Glad to see other’s voting for him, also. Though I fear I might be voting for him for a week.

    1) He’s (almost?) ML-ready

    2) Okay BB/K rates in his cup-of-coffee last season with the Phils

    3) Position versatility– 2B/LF

    4) .800 career minor league OPS. Advanced a level every year.

    In a good-to-best case scenario, I could see Sweeney hitting .250 with 10 HRs in 275 PA in a reserve role this season.

    I have him just above Tyler Goeddel, though, if one went before the other, I wouldn’t be surprised.

    1. At this stage I sort of have Goeddel, Medina, Pinto, Sweeney, Tocci and Lively bunched together. Sweeney has an intriguing ceiling – but he should get his second baseman’s glove ready; I don’t see him getting a lot of at bats in this outfield (nor do I see that for Cody Asche unless he hits like gangbusters in the spring and early in the season).

      1. I truly, truly hope I am wrong here, but after being high on Tocci earlier in his career, I’m starting to see a Bourjos-like ceiling. That wouldn’t be a bad thing necessarily, but then where do you rank a prospect with a 4th outfielder type ceiling and considerable risk to go with it?

        I hope I never meet anyone in person who tries to convince me that Tocci is a better prospect than Cozens right now. I’d be concerned of what type of look I would have on my face – punch-able I suspect

          1. I could see a first division regular in the OF for a few years with a move to 1B at a later time. He the hit tool is enough to get buy, the power potential will allow for a move to 1B. Cozens is an athlete, and he has baseball skills, unlike so many past ‘toolsy’ prospects. I think he has a decent chance of having the skill necessary to make adjustments as scouting reports reveal his weaknesses.

            I also see a lot of breakout signs in his 2015 season at Clearwater. And here’s the kicker, the kid is 21 (turns 22 in May). This happens from time to time with certain prospects. Age seems to get lost in the discussion. There’s still a lot of risk there, no doubt. And I hate comps. I think they’re generally silly – but let’s say from solely a production viewpoint, I see Corey Hart as peak season comp

            1. Steve….I hope he does what you envision. Unfortunately, one thing about his May 31st birthdate….I believe it is a few days earlier then the June cut-off for players service time for Rule 5 protection eligibility. He will need to be 40 protected this November.

        1. Yeah, I think you could make a pretty convincing argument that Tocci is a better or at least as good prospect as Cozens. I’d be happy to tell that to you to your face when I go to ST – if that makes me you want to punch me, I’d like to remind you that there are probably about 10 billion more important things in life to fight over.

          If Tocci continues to develop, he has an Ender Ciarte type ceiling. Cozens has power and some speed, but he has a lot of downside risk.

          I’m playing Devil’s Advocate here as much as anything but I just don’t buy the notion that Cozens is hands-down a better prospect – you could argue it either way.

    2. I agree that Sweeney profiles as a bench player..on one of the worst teams in baseball that is. And so, I can’t understand your ranking. There are real prospects still in the system that have a far higher ceiling than a 24 yo utility player.

      1. Most of the position players left have a ceiling of Utility player, except the Teenage guys. There isn’t a position player over 20 left, that has any more potential than him. Sweeney should be considered, because he is a near certainty to make the Major Leagues out of all those guys.

        1. That’s not true, there are lots of guys with higher ceilings than Sweeney. His odds of being a bench guy are high but his odds of being a starter are not. There is still a chance for Goedel, Tocci, Pujols, Cozens, Grullon, Canello, and Encarnacion to name 7 position players with higher ceilings. Odds of reaching those ceilings are a different story.

          1. I said except for the teeangers, so I didn’t mean Tocci, Grullon or Ortiz. Encarnacion and Pujols can’t pass SS ball. Goeddel and Sweeney are the same level player. And Sweeney has been a better hitter than Cozens throughout his career.

            1. Tocci is 20 years old. Just an FYI. Cozens has much better power present and future compared to Sweeney. I thin Goedel and Sweeney are similar with Goedel having a slightly better chance to be a better rounded mlb player. If Philly would of not traded for Sweeney and he would of been left unprotected in the rule V draft who do you think they would have taken.

            2. I think Sweeney would have been the 1st overall pick in the Rule 5, had he been available. Being a Switch hitter would have given him the advantage over Goeddel, because he would’ve been so easy to keep on the roster. He would have been the best hitter available, that had any kind of defensive versatility. There were better hitters available, but they were limited to LF.

  2. BTW, I’ve forgotten about John Richy, who was also acquired with Sweeney. Not suggesting he should be added to the poll yet, but, when a decent prospect like him doesn’t even warrant attention, just another testament to the depth of our system. I wonder if he will start a CLW or move up?

  3. Pinto is the easy choice here. After that I’m still fussing with the order. I have Kingery as my #19 choice. He just hasn’t proved anything to me yet. I have to take another look at Medina. The scouts like him and he’s shown up in some top prospect lists. I’ve done my poll through #20 and he’s not on it yet but I may need to rethink that.

  4. No starter skill-set for Kingery. Zero power. Not enough speed. Possible reserve 2B, which equals no value. Now, backup shortstops (e.g. Wilson Valdez) have value. HEED THE SALAMI!

    1. Doesn’t Kingery have plus speed that is borderline plus plus? I need to see him prove that his hit tool is actually plus before I rank him too high but to say he doesn’t have speed or enough speed is just wrong.

  5. Medina here. He has a higher ceiling than any other pitcher yet to be ranked — including Pinto. Based on the scouting reports I’ve seen, his stuff isn’t much of a step down from what Kilome offers.

  6. Pinto again. I have Pivetta in this area. He is another one with command issues, but his upside is great. With his natural ability he belongs in the teens in our poll.

  7. Cozens here. I can’t wait when he hits 25 HRs and OPS’s .850 at AA this season. Nice to see Medina getting some love. He’s my number 13. All reports I read have pointed to a clear step up in stuff and velocity. Sitting 92-94 as an 18 starter is a good thing. Adding a curve ball that shows as a potential plus pitch and an already effective change and you have a player flirting with Top 100 territory. He’s one of the players I’m most hoping to see next month in Clearwater. Living in North Carolina in 2014-2015, I never had a chance to see him in person. Regardless, he needs to be in our Top 20 for certain (I would argue Top 15). Reports have been consistently good

    1. JP Crawford
    2. Nick Williams
    3. Jake Thompson
    4. Cornelius Randolph
    5. Mark Appel
    6. Franklyn Kilome
    7. Roman Quinn
    8. Dylan Cozens
    9. Zach Eflin
    10. Jorge Alfaro

    11. Rhys Hoskins
    12.Ricardo Pinto
    13.Adonis Medina

        1. So the best hitter in the organization last year, age appropriate in AA, that showed at least moderate power, at a position of extreme scarcity, who many said made strides on defense is that far behind cousins, Alfaro and Hoskins? What did he steal your lunch money? What’s a switch hitting catcher batting .360 in AA gotta do to catch a break ?

          1. Aside from a DBrown-ish 6 week stretch, Knapp was nothing more than noticeable up to that point. If he could stick at catcher, the bats plays up. But he can’t be a negative valye defensively, and I’m not sure that he will add value away from his bat. I hope he proves me wrong at OPS’s north of .800 at LV this year. But I suspect we’ll see something a lot closer to .700.

            http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=595284#/career/R/hitting/2015/ALL

            1. I don’t think you can kill him for getting hot. 53 extra base hits last year. That’s not just a hit tool. There are definitely concerns about defense, but many say he’s at least passable behind the plate and a willing worker. He deserves to be top 10 in any organization

    1. I have him coming up on my list as well, so I’d like to see him added to the poll. He could have a better than average glove at SS and showed surprising doubles power last year in Lakewood.

  8. Here’s a shocker…I am actually coming around on Tocci. The reason is that I finally found a comp that makes sense to me…Ender Inciarte.

    This comp allows me to visualize a productive MLB player with a similar profile and body type.

    The only significant difference to date between the two minor league profiles is the K rate of Tocci. Inciarte was routinely around 11% in the minors, while Tocci has consistently been in the 17% rate (with the exception of a half season his third trip at low A). This speaks to his hit tool. If Tocci can match the 11% from last year’s low A through the remainder of his minor league career, I will build confidence. But if he has a high k rate in the minors, along with no power, that would not match the Inciarte profile and would be a 5th OF candidate.

    That being said, I can’t see the rationale of putting Tocci over Goeddel. Tyler has a much better bat along with more power and a far more advanced speed tool. The only thing Tocci has over Tyler is younger and CF vs. LF. On the age point, the key thing here is you have to believe that the age difference will mean that Tocci will grow into and surpass Goeddel’s hit, power and speed advantage. And that is a major leap of faith IMO.

    1. I tend to agree with your assessment of Tocci and Goeddel.
      I looked at Goeddel’s splits and though they are not outstanding, he does show promise. Then again he was a Rule 5 unprotected guy for a reason by the Rays.

      vs LHP vs RHP
      ‘15 PA 108 .385/.435 PA 435 .252/.328
      ‘14 PA 140 .207/.314 PA 339 .294 /.363
      ‘13 PA 154 .159/.266 PA 403 .269/.323
      ‘12 PA 71 .283/.377 PA 309 .237/.325

      …all over the place….two year reverse splitting vs LHPs but SSS…and seems to be a tick below average vs RHPs.
      IMO, physically profiles as tall and lanky like a Drew Stubbs type player, with great speed, plus arm and overall plus OF defense.
      Plus base runner with 80% steal success and will run. K rate of 20% is a little high and 9% BB rate is average.

    2. I like your comp there. I think his upside could be similar. You got me more excited about Tocci haha. We can dream.

  9. Pinto here, and then it gets really tough. I would love to see Cozens hit those 25 HRs and OPS of .850. Then I will be happy to rate him Top 10 next year. But until then, he hasn’t done enough for me. This is where Windle may fit. If we look at the contracts that Relievers are getting, and equate that, somewhat, to value, it raises the value of 7th and 8th inning Major League guys, and I think there is more of a certainty that Windle is that, than some of our other prospects reaching their ceilings.

  10. When I watched Cozens in Williamsport he already had the ability to be playing in Reading. I would not be surprised to see him hitting 3rd for the Phillies in 2017.

  11. I saw a group of fans clustered around some Phillies’ coaches yesterday. The group included the easily recognizable Mickey Morandini and Ray Burris. Both garnered all the attention of the fans. Until I recognized the third coach, Lakewood’s Shawn Williams, sitting alone on the end of the bench. Swoop!

    Coach Williams lives in the area during the off season and was at the Complex with several young players who had reported early. They had spent the day hitting and such in Bright House Field since the Complex had been taken over by Phantasy Campers. The coaches had taken a break to wander over to the Complex because the Yankees had sent two Fantasy teams over to play two Phillies’ Phantasy teams. That meant Yankees’ legends as coaches. I recognized and said “Hi!” Mickey Rivers. Jeff Nelson, Jesse Barfield, and Oscar Gamble (sans hair) were also among the Yankees who took the bus over to Clearwater.

    Anyway, let me get back on point. We talked about “C” Randolph and his hitting (I told him you guys didn’t like the pick when it was announced, but had ranked him as our # 4 prospect 7 months later) and the likelihood of his starting in Lakewood in spite of Joe Jordan’s statement to Mitch Rupert that he might start in Wiliamsport,

    Then it clicked. Coach Williams is local. Did he visit the Complex during the period when Tocci and others were working on strength and conditioning this fall? (Yes, he did!). Did he see the players? (Yes, he did!) DID FRANKLYN KILOME ADD ANY MUSCLE? (YES, HE DID!). Kilome is listed at 6’6, 175. A improvement to a Miguel Nunez type physique of 6’6, 215 is probably too much to hope for. But, 190-200 pounds would be nice. Can’t wait until he reports in 5-6 weeks. Hope he arrives early.

  12. Wow, I just realized Cord Sandberg made the poll. He’s a LF, who can’t hit. Do people really believe he profiles as a major league player or top prospect?

    1. Cord won’t be in the top 20, he is probably borderline 30th in our org just because he showed some flashes and has pedigree.

    2. Apparently MLB does. He’s ranked 22nd ahead of Tocci, Canelo, Asher, Medina, Grullon, Leibrandt, Richy, and Garcia. Sandberg is on no other poll, but no other poll goes past 10-20 slots except for Matt Winkelman’s who ranks him 44th.

    3. Raw, toolsy player when drafted; some scouting reports indicate that the tools have regressed, but he’s slowly improved since he was drafted while moving up a level at a time. I have him just outside the top 30 but I haven’t stopped looking for him in box scores yet.

      1. Sandberg is the rare player who gets labeled “Toolsy” but doesn’t display any tools. Speed: Doesn’t steal bases. Defense: OF who can’t play CF. Arm: Not good enough for RF. Power: 5 HRs, .90 ISO. Hitting: career .295 OBP, doesn’t walk. Time to retire ‘Toolsy’ for Sandberg.

          1. This was Sandberg’s scouting grades from MLB in 2015:
            Hit: 45 Power: 50 Run: 50 Arm: 50 Field: 50 Overall: 45

            Pretty average/pedestrian at this point…..however, understand MLB should have another set of updated rankings and grades out soon.

  13. I voted for Pinto here again, but I’m really enjoying reading everyone’s high opinions on Cozens. After reading many of these comments, I went back and looked at his stats and do now see the narrative of a raw athlete with great raw power potentially “figuring it out” by steadily increasing his average, lowering his k-rate and continuing to develop that power. I’m not ready to vote him in here, but my perspective on him has changed based on the optimism of so many people on this board. That’s one more major thing to be excited about this season.

    I also saw that Jay Floyd surprisingly has Jimmy Cordero as his #11 prospect. Whoa. http://www.phoulballz.com/search/label/2016%20Prospect%20Nation. I’m high on him too (I have him at #17) because of his unique potential and the value we’ve seen on the trade market for elite power relief arms, but we don’t even have him on the board for our #13!

    Great to see this kind of depth in the system.

  14. Sandberg d he won what the minor league version of the Gloden Glove according to baseball Besty. He needs to really step it up he did good in Aussie.

  15. https://baseballross.wordpress.com/2015/10/29/cord-sandberg-battles-to-rise-to-the-top-of-phillies-outfield-prospects/ . Sandberg second half stats were better he started going the other way. He hit .290 in the second half with 16% k rate with 28 Doubles . Now he only hit 5 Homers and had trouble against lefty but he did show alot of improvement in the 2nd half . Last year was his first full yr of proball. I Don’t think he’s top 25 prospect but he is some one to keep an eye on.

    1. I think the date of the article should have caused you to check up on his current stats. Sandberg may have been hitting .444 after 9 AB in the ABL, but he has regressed to slightly above his norm over the larger sample now available. A projection in October that Sandberg will one day play the outfield in CBP is at the very least optimistic at this point, I think.

  16. There is a new prospect on the Radar he now in D C he has 50/ 60 speed enough power to take down trees . He has lights out power but he’s afraid of heat. I think his agent is Boras cause his is Jonas. Ha ha

  17. Now into the most interesting part of this year’s prospecting. I tend to agree with the Top 10. I try to rank players by my personal trade value so I absolutely have my favorites that defy both scouting and statistics.
    I would make my case for Ortiz due entirely to his signing bonus. I doubt Phillies would overpay for him, so his bonus puts him within the Top 10 picks in the Rule4 draft. I would not want to trade him for anyone outside the Top9 in this poll.

    I also want to thank all the contributors to these discussions, as I have learned much more than when I initially put together my Top30 and have needed to make adjustments.

    At this point and after Ortiz, I like this group of players in a close bunch:
    Medina: #2 SP potential but huge risk due to size and years away
    Tocci: gold glove defense (I hope) allows for lesser power if it does not come
    Eshelman: soft spot for control pitchers and he could be an extreme example
    Canelo: good fielding SS has lower bar as a hitter
    I would add the already voted in Pinto (lots to like), Kingery (hitter), Elfin (young), and Hoskins (consistent but tough profile for success) to my 11 to 18 group as well.

    Though I’d rank them lower I can see a compelling argument for:
    Lively: strikeout history but AA performance at age is a concern
    Pivetta: similar to Lively a year ago with fallback as reliever
    Cozens: long swing gives me huge concern he will fail in the majors
    Goeddel: could prove me wrong but there’s a reason Rays left him available
    Sweeney: hitting not good enough to overcome below average fielding (versatility)
    Grullon: gold glove catcher does not need to hit but very long road ahead
    Cordero: closer upside but pure relievers are hard to rank higher
    Tirado: stuff may be even better than most, but Aumont failure haunts me
    Windle: another reliever only but as lefty has distinct advantage to make it
    Pujols: poor stats but scouts have some hope, can stay in RF

    1. I can’t disagree with much here. I will say that a LA player who gets a certain bonus amount wouldn’t get the same amount if they were rule 4 eligible. For example, Ortiz wouldn’t have been a top 10 pick in the rule 4, but exactly where he would go is hard to say.

      I also don’t like the Pivetta/Lively comp because they’re different styles of pitcher, but if you just meant in terms of value/track record then I could see it.

      I have the same concern about Sweeney. From a tools perspective, I like him a lot. He has sneaky power and if he could play an average 2B he’d be a great guy to have around. The contact and defensive question marks make it hard for me to rate him. I originally put him in the late 20’s which is probably too low. I just worry about the strikeouts from a guy who will be 25 next year.

      1. It really is hard trying to determine where a 16-year old LA signee would go in a Rule 4 draft that have 18/19 HSers and 21/22 year old college guys. But I think you are spot on in that a LA signee would not get that type bonus if Rule 4 eligible. Then again, 2013 signee Luis Encarnacion ($1M signing bonus) would have been eligible for the Rule 4 2015 draft as an 18-year old. Whether or not he would have recd that bonus with whatever round he was slotted, is debatable

  18. Australian Baseball League winds down this weekend.

    In today’s game, my boy Big Hoss 0 for 3, but RBI and fifth stolen base, and BA still above 300 at 302.

  19. Went with Tocci at this point. I just can’t bring myself to vote for a player who’s ceiling is a 2nd division bench player (Sweeney) when there are other options out there who can become everyday regulars.

    Don’t care if Sweeney’s chances of playing in the Majors is 95% and Tocci’s is 5%. Average at best bench players are just that and they are too easy to find.

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