Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #12; Run Off

Well, I don’t if this has ever happened before.  The Reader Top 30 experienced 3 close races in the poll for the #12 prospect in the organization.  Virtual ties for third and fifth, and a true dead lock for the top position between Ricardo Pinto and Scott Kingery.  So, in the absence of hanging chad and absentee ballots, we will do what Florida failed to do in 2000, head-to-head run off.

KingeryPinto

 

Kingery and Pinto each accumulated 76 of 325 votes, 23%  each of the votes cast.

Tocci edged Cozens 51-49 (16% – 15%) for third place.

Medina edged Goeddel 23-19 (7% – 6%) for fifth place.

So far the Top 30 looks like this:

  1. J.P. Crawford
  2. Nick Williams
  3. Jake Thompson
  4. Mark Appel
  5. “C” Randolph
  6. Roman Quinn
  7. Jorge Alfaro
  8. Franklyn Kilome
  9. Andrew Knapp
  10. Zach Eflin
  11. Rhys Hoskins

61 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #12; Run Off

    1. I’m not going to post 13 until 12 is completed. The non-winner here will probably be the favorite for 13, but I won’t assume that will be the result.

      1. Great job. I never liked the assumption that the loser received the next spot, in the past run-offs.

  1. Once someone compared Pinto to Seve, I couldn’t shake that comparison. Though someone else compared him to Pedro–PEDRO?!?–its hard not to think he’s closer to Seve than he is a first ballot HOF.

    I do still like Pinto, but am going Kingery here. I do believe Kingery’s BA in college was vastly overinflated due to his BAPIP, and that it will revert to the mean. But he does have speed and defensive ability, and I could see him as a chippy, all-hustle .260 – 5 HR – 15 SB second division regular at 2B.

    1. The person who compared Pinto to Seve has no idea what he is talking about. Pinto throws considerably harder than Seve and has s plus change-up. Seve does not have one pitch that was ever rated plus. Let alone a strikeout pitch like a change is.

      That being said, I sent Kingery here. My reasoning is simple, offensively productive 2b are very hard to find and provide a great opportunity to create standard deviation from the mean in your lineup. The big question on Kingery is what will his bat be. Is he a .260 hitter or a guy that floats near .300 every year.

      With his plus (and potentially plus plus) speed, he will always have a high BABIP. He also is not weak, so he will get his fair share of hard hit balls. That leads me to believe in the upper end of the hit tool range.

      I think your SB projection for him is low too. His speed will allow him to be in the 30+ range for SB. Add in quality defense and I think you have the potential for a really productive 2b.

      Given the scarcity of productive 2b in baseball, that makes him more valuable than a #3 pitcher, which our system seems to be stocked with.

        1. I didn’t forget. From the reports that I read, I don’t think his present defense is plus. I think it can get there because he is a great athlete with range. But that strikes me as a bigger risk than his bat. I see his defenses as an easy 50. Maybe 55. And with work could be a 60.

          1. Here is Jay Floyd’s review on his defense from Phillies Nation:
            ‘A great defender, Kingery features excellent range and quick hands. He’s an exemplary second baseman with a strong arm that can lay out on batted balls in the hole and can turn double plays with the best of them’ – : http://philliesnation.com/#sthash.anYnrLrm.dpuf

            …sounds better then average to me…55/60 now .FV maybe 65/70. However MLB currently have him at a 50, but Jim Callis said the other day they will be coming out with their new updated rankings soon.

            1. Yeah I read that report. Frankly thought it was a little too positive. Don’t get me wrong. I like his defense. Just not ready to call it plus.

      1. The shining example of how valuable 2b is is Chase Utley. As a 2b, he is a boarder line HoF’er. If he was an OF, he wouldn’t even be considered for the Hall.

        Now I am not saying Utley is a comp to Kingery. Totally different profiles and Utley is The Man!

        Point is, the offensive bar is low for 2b. And if you have an offensive 2b that can also play good defense, it is extremely valuable.

        1. If Utley had not gotten hurt and had a normal WAR curve for an aging player, he would have been an easy HOFer due to his insanely high 5 year peak – among the best ever for second baseman. But, ultimately, unless he has a completely bizarre resurgence, he’s going to fall into that group of players who played at a HOF level for a reasonable period of time, but had a career that was run slightly off track due to injuries which prevented him from accumulating HOF benchmark statistics.

        2. If you look at both Kingery and Utley’s first half-season play at 2nd, after college, on the lightly regarded standard defensive metrics, their Fld% is almost identical…983 vs .986

          1. Utley was regarded as questionable defensively when he was drafted. He worked very hard in the minors to improve his defense. I wouldn’t count a comparison to first-half-season Utley, even if using a more valid stat than fielding percentage, as any kind of positive endorsement for Kingery, because Utley just wasn’t a good defensive 2B back then. Which brings us to scouting and potential… the Phillies scouts recognized Utley’s potential to improve defensively. They have looked at Kingery and seen a plus defensive 2B in the making. Too early to tell, but I’ll give the scouts the benefit of the doubt until we have a full season of data. I voted Kingery here.

            1. From what I recall, Utley’s actual glove work and turn at second were not questionable. It was his arm’s strength/velocity and its mechanical whip like action, Not sure what I can recall on reports on his left/right range factor.

      1. Roy Oswalt had one of the greatest curvballs of all time, and Pinto’s weakest pitch is his breaking ball. But other than that…

        Roy Oswalt: A+: 2.2 bb/9, 9.3 K/9, 0.2 HR/9
        Ricar. Pinto: A+: 2.2 bb/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.7 HR/9

        1. Is it possible that Kyle Kendrick is the greatest ML starting pitcher of all-time, who had a K/9 under 5.5 in High A ball?

          1. KK may very well be the greatest ML starter with that ratio…but second in the low K/9 category could be Greg Maddux…his was 6.0 K/9 at Peoria…manager Pete Mackanin. 🙂

            1. We know. One Harry Leroy Halladay had several years where is K/9 was bad, including 6 at A+ and 4.6 at AAA. The concerns about Eflin are understandable, but his arm and command are such that there’s still reason for optimism; he’s not 22 year old KK sitting between 87 and 90 with essentially one pitch. Eflin’s ceiling is way higher than KK’s.

        2. Didn’t anybody read Matt’s writeups? How Pinto hasn’t used his full arsenal last year to develop his slider?

          VOR, I don’t think editing the bounds of the stats to fit the narrative is good practice. Last year in Lakewood, Pinto’s K/9 was around 9, as well as all of 2014.

          I’m not arguing that his K/9 can be projected as 9 in the bigs, but scouting the line alone for pitchers is often a mistake, because when they’re not working on command, they’re working on individual pitches i.e. their weakest ones.

          1. The stats aren’t even my biggest issue with Pinto. They’re just the easiest way to prove an objective point. Pinto has average stuff according to the scouting reports.

            The meme being repeated, is that he has 2 plus pitches. He doesn’t. 5’s on your Scouting card mean you are average. It’s not easy for a small pitcher to be successful with average stuff. The successful, small, Starting pitchers all had 7’s on on their card. Pedro had a 7 on his FB and Change. Lincecum had a 7 on his Change and Curve. Oswalt had a 7 on his FB and Curve. When you are small, having average stuff is a problem, because you have less projection. That’s why it’s hard for me to project Pinto as a successful starter.

            Forget the Pitching stats. It’s hard to find any 6’0 starter in the league, that didn’t have at least one 70 pitch, when he was in the minors.

            1. So then it all depends on which scouting reports you read. Matt says 2 plus, The Good Phight says plus fastball at least, Fangraphs says 2 above average (55) reported a year ago, Phillies nation says 2 plus pitches. Where are you seeing all 5’s?

            2. I think the different ratings are between those who talk of the current rating of those pitches and those who talk about how good they are expected to be by the time he reaches the majors, given their projection of how much future development he will achieve.

            3. Matt’s not a scout. He’s a guy with a blog. I respect a lot of his points, but you and I would become rich men if we had a dollar for every time he says someone has ‘Plus’ something. Fangraphs (who you list) has Pinto with all 5’s.

            4. Josh Norris of BA (or whatever scout who’s opinion he was passing along) called his fastball and changeup both plus. At the end of 2014, Kiley of Fangraphs wrote that his changeup was above average, which would be a 55 grade. I’m not exactly sure what goes into the grades that Fangraphs displays on their player pages.

            5. I think it was Jay Floyd or Joe Jordan that said Pinto has the best Change up of right hangers in the entire Phillies minor league system. The updated 2016 scouting reports haven’t really came out yet . As with all the other prospects we will see what happens this yr. Matt Winks does get some of his info from scouts and other knowledgeable baseball people.

          2. @Handzuz, Kylie McDaniel is the one who gave him the present 50/future 55, but I don’t want to get into semantics and arguing the difference between a 50(average) 55 (above average) and 60(plus). It’s caused me to get away from the point.

            The point is that I have a hard time believing that Pinto can’t get swings and misses from A ball hitters, if he truly has Plus pitches. It’s not logical. A ball hitters can’t hit plus change-ups or breaking balls. Pinto isn’t the only pitcher in history that worked on things in A ball.

            K/9 for Pitchers, is the same as walks for hitters. It’s not the result that matters, its the indicator of future success. Walks mean the hitter isn’t swinging at pitches he can’t hit. Strikeouts mean the pitcher has “swing and miss” stuff. If he doesn’t have the indicator, then I can’t say he has it.

            1. I would be with you on that point if there weren’t reports of the Phillies limiting his changeup. Pinto isn’t the only guy who was working on things, but not every team will handle their prospects in the same way, and the Phillies won’t necessarily use the same techniques to develop all of their pitchers.

              We do know that the Phillies have limited pitching prospects in the past, but I don’t remember specific examples besides Gavin Floyd, Shane Watson and Gonzalez. I’d like to compare them but I don’t think their situations match up well enough to Pinto’s to do that. So, my approach is to believe the majority of the scouting reports that we have and give them more weight than his stat-line in Clearwater. We’ll see when the new seasons starts.

            2. Is there a website that breaks down minor league pitcher’s arsenal, i.e. usage patterns, velos, etc., the way Brooks and Fangraphs do for major league pitchers?

            3. Agree to disagree. I see your points, and I would agree with you if we both felt the same about his pitches. We will definitely see soon, since AA separates the men from the boys as far as pitchers go.

            4. Right if you don’t throw your stikeout pitch and throw your 3 best pitch your k’ s will go down. Now Pinto mite have his k’s go back up in Reading. We will see if that happens then we his slider in near where it should be .

    2. yeah thats why im hesitant on Pinto until i see how he does at AA/AAA. the phillies have always had guys like Seve who had great numbers in the lower levels but never panned out..

  2. Kingery. I’ll take the guy who has a chance to play every day over the back-end starter. If Pinto K’d more guys in Clearwater …

  3. Jimmy, Can we see the lead changes too? Otherwise it could be boring for us today.

    Thank-you for the effort and enthusiasm that you put into this site!!

    1. Goedell should probably be on the list already, he’ll get a lot of time in the majors this year so we’ll see how he does, if he takes advantage like odubel. eschelman probably should get more respect too…but i think since these guys are new they don’t have enough exposure here, there’s a definite bias towards the guys we drafted and have been in the system awhile

    1. I blocked it intentionally for this run off. I have reasons, but let’s just say I did it because I can. Results will come back when regular polling returns. This race is still very close.

  4. This one’s tough. I originally went with Kingery and was to follow with Tocci then Pinto. But given the second chance I was very tempted to change to Pinto given his longer track record but ended up sticking with Kingery. Tocci next, then Pinto.

  5. I’m sticking with Pinto. I like Kingery a lot, I just like Pinto more. Say what you want about ignoring the first half year of a college guy’s season, if Kingery had hit better last year, I’d have him ranked higher. We live in a “show me” world…. Pinto looks like a stone cold major league pitcher to me. He may ultimately move to the pen because other starters are better than him but that would just show our system’s depth and not be a bad thing.

  6. |I think both guys show some extra in the effort department. Pinto had a mental toughness to get hammered in A – two seasons ago and bounce back in 2015. Kingery flashes some of the same smarts that Utley has. I could go with either one with no problem. I picked Pinto because of his longer time in the system.
    And I’m bullish on Kyle Martin, have to see him for a full year. There could be an awesome logjam at first down the road.

  7. DMAR……plenty of back and forth discussion on Pinto and his projection.
    What does your metric formula have for him compared to others with similar traits?

    1. His KWHIP is 5.81 and his Dominance Index is 1.13 both decent numbers but interesting who is ahead of him from our system

      Medina 6.45 and .716
      Alec Asher 6.91 and .083
      Thompson 7.09 and -.645

      Below him are

      Appel 5.49 and 1.46
      Kilome 5.02 and 1.56
      Eflin 4.73 and 2.64

      1. Oh man…DMAR, you better take your formula back to the drawing table!
        Doesn’t seem to make sense, though looking at it closer….Asher seems out of place, but his metrics were decent, especially after the trade to the Phillies, at LHV.
        Perhaps I am misjudging the results.

  8. Pinto… despite not getting to AA yet has done more at a higher level. I feel actual results have to carry some weight.

  9. Alfaro Number Three on MLB Pipeline for catchers.

    Was #1 last year, I believe. Injury hurt, no pun intended.

  10. I will guess that at least one of these highly ranked players will disappoint us; and one at the bottom will surprise us. Who will they be, no one knows. Despite all the analytics, the game remains unpredictable. Those with determination such as Rose and Utley became stars. Who in the Phillies system has the grit to rise above his current standing? Do we know any of them well enough to have an answer?

  11. I was at the Complex today when the news that the VSL cancelled the 2016 season broke. Ben Badler reported it in this story.
    http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/venezuelan-summer-league-shuts/

    Soon thereafter, Jim Salisbury reported that the Phillies would have two entries in the DSL this summer.
    http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/phillies-will-have-two-minor-league-clubs-dr-2016?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

    Due to conditions in Venezuela, the VSL was down to just 4 teams. When the Cubs decided to close their academy that left only three teams in the league. The Phillies will continue to operate their academy in Venezuela, but will move the team to the Dominican Republic to participate in the DSL.

    Selfishly, I would prefer a second GCL team, but the DSL makes more sense. The academies are entry-level leagues for teenagers and some older kids who slip through the scouting cracks. The level of play in the GCL is a little too advanced for the academy kids.

    1. I was inside the Complex to set up a meeting with Ray Robles (Coordinator, International Operations). But he was with Lee McDaniel (Director, Minor League Operations), and they sounded like they were busy reacting to the news.

      I don’t know if they were aware of the report by Salisbury, but I’m sure they had to deal with a lot of calls from academy players and staff once the VSL news broke.

  12. I like Kingery, but I am projecting him to already have a breakout season. I like what I inferred from his pre-draft reports. I think he will be an excellent fielder, some mentioned he might be able to play SS. I think he will he an excellent hitter. The power and walk rate will be the key to his value at the plate. Plus speed can hopefully lead to high SB percentage.

    I figure his walk-on background will keep him working hard to reach the majors. I doubt he will be an all-star but am willing to project as a long term starter which causes me to rank him above many higher risk/higher projection prospects.

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