Monthly Archives: July 2015

Box Score Recap – 7/21/2015

Box Score Recap

It was Nola Night in Philadelphia.  The Phillies drew 28,703 people to the game to watch Aaron Nola make his long-awaited debut in a Phillies uniform.  They even sponsored a “two-fer” ticket special – two tickets for $27.00.  Nola’s number is 27.  Pretty clever, eh?  I’m surprised they didn’t try to boost receipts by issuing him a higher number.

Nola was impressive in his first major league start.  He held the Rays to five hits and struck out six batters.  He completed six innings and threw 88 pitches, 59 for strikes.  Nola appeared to tire in the sixth when he went deeper in counts and walked his only batter.

Nola’s only blemish was a solo home run by the Rays starting pitcher, Nathan Karns on the first pitch of the third inning.  It was one of the few pitches he got up in the early innings and was in where even a pitcher can drive it.   Continue reading Box Score Recap – 7/21/2015 →

Around the System–Relief Pitching–LK, WP and GCL

Other Stuff

Lakewood

Joey DeNato, 23, Phils 19th round pick in 2014; 30 games; 2-2 with a 1.59ERA; 5SV; 45.1IP 29H 11BB 44K; 1HR allowed; .188 opp avg; 0.88 WHIP; 0.63 GO/AO; 2.2BB/8.7K per 9; .234 vs LH, .168 vs RH, .167 opp avg last 30 days; .250 with RISP.  A pitching line that has everything you would want.  DeNato has been consistently dominating.

Jason Zgardowski, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2014; 21 games between Williamsport and Lakewood; 2-1 with a 3.53ERA; 2SV; 35.2IP 24H 16BB 32K; 2HR allowed; 4.0BB/8.1K per 9; .192 opp avg; 1.12 WHIP; 1.19 GO/AO; For Lakewood: 15G; 3.90ERA; .194 opp avg; 1.12 WHIP; .213 vs LH; .176 vs RH.  After being picked up as an un-drafted free agent, Zgardowski clearly has talent, throws hard and has been gaining command of his pitches.

Scott Harris, 22, Phils 27th round pick in 2014; 19 games, 1-2 with a 4.46ERA; 34.1IP 33H 13BB 24K; 3HR allowed; .246 opp avg; 1.34 WHIP; 1.08 GO/AO; 3.4BB/6.3K per 9; .200 vs LH; .263 vs RH, .237 opp avg last 30 days; .350 with RISP.  Harris has been generally productive but gets beat up with runners in scoring position.

Matt Hockenberry, 23, Phils 9th round pick in 2014; 24 games, 4-3 with a 2.34ERA; 8SV; 34.2IP 21H 13BB 36K; 0HR allowed; .178 opp avg; 0.98 WHIP; 1.83 GO/AO; 3.3BB/9.3K per 9; .196 vs LH, .161 vs RH, .190 opp avg last 30 days; .250 with RISP.  Hockenberry has been outstanding minus a few outings just before he went on the DL.  The comments would echo those for DeNato…Hockenberry has done everything you would want him to do, including failing to yield a homer in his 24 outings.

Manny Martinez, 23, Signed as a free agent in 2011; 18 games, 2-1 with a 3.57ERA; 1SV; 22.2IP 19H 14BB 18K; 2HR allowed; .235 opp avg; 1.46 WHIP; 0.92 GO/AO; 5.6BB/7.1K per 9; .208 vs LH, .246 vs RH, .324 opp avg last 30 days.  The walks have really hurt Martinez who has struggled over the last month.

Jairo Munoz, 23, Signed as a free agent in 2015; 5 games between GCL, CW and Lakewood; 0.00 ERA: 6IP 2H 0R 2BB 6K.  Too few games for comment.

Calvin Rayburn, 23, Phils 16th round pick in 2014; 18 games, 2-1 with a 2.51ERA; 1SV; 28.2IP 14H 12BB 17K; 0HR allowed; .152 opp avg; 0.91 WHIP; 1.56 GO/AO; 3.8BB/5.3K per 9; .150 vs LH; .154 vs RH, .106 opp avg last 30 days; Practically unhittable, the large majority of Rayburn’s baserunners have come from the free pass.  That said, he has pitched very, very well after spending some time on the DL.

Note: For Williamsport and GCL Phils, infrequent comments simply because their season is so young.

Williamsport

Sutter McLoughlin, 21, Phils 22nd round pick in 2015; 7 games with GCL Phils, 2-0 with an 0.00ERA; 4SV; 9.1IP 2H 0ER 12K; McLoughlin was promoted to Williamsport based on his start with GCL Phils

Jacob Waguespack, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2015; 4 games with GCL Phils, 0-0 with a 7.94ERA; 5.2IP 9H 1BB 7K. Continue reading Around the System–Relief Pitching–LK, WP and GCL →

Box Score Recap – 7/20/2015

Box Score Recap

Bailey “falters” in GCL outing.  Sorry, this phrase germinated on June 9th when the Phillies made Bailey Falter their fifth round selection in the Amateur Draft.  The seed sprouted today when Falter had a shaky start against the GCL Yankees2.  This was the left-handed pitcher’s second start.  In two previous appearances,  Falter had held the opposition to one unearned run on three hits and a walk while striking out eight.  The lanky pitcher is listed at 6’4 and 175 lbs.  He has long limbs but throws the ball from a tight, compact release that belies his build.  It looks more toward over the top than three-quarters.  He throws all his pitches from the same arm slot.  Today he pitched three batters into the third inning before being relieved.  He got a few of his pitches “up” and the Yankees hitters barreled them.  Still, he struck out four of the six outs he recorded, all swinging. Continue reading Box Score Recap – 7/20/2015 →

Open Discussion: Week of July 20th

Weekly Discussion

Here’s an open discussion thread so the minor league posts don’t get cluttered with Phillies’ talk and other topics.

The Phillies returned from the All Star break and swept the Miami Marlins.  The Phillies lead for the #1 draft pick was whittled down from 9.5 GB to 7.0 GB, in just three games.  Let’s get Utley off the DL and back in the three-hole.

Aaron Nola makes his MLB debut Tuesday night at home against the Tampa Rays.  Might be one of the largest crowds of the season.

I’m sure expectations are high.  I would hope that we all rein in these expectations.  I found these reports on Nola –

  • MLB – FB 60, SL 50, CH 60, Control 60, Overall 55.  Nola has tremendous command of his three-pitch arsenal. He spots his low-90s fastball to both sides of the plate, and his three-quarters arm slot adds plenty of action to the pitch. His changeup is a plus offering at times, and his slider has improved to give him a third quality offering.  While Nola lacks the ideal size for a right-hander, he has all the necessary tools to succeed as a big league starter.
  • FanGraphs – FB 55/60, CU 50/60, CH 50/60, Command 45/55, FV 55.  Nola creates above average life on his fastball and changeup with the spin he puts on the ball from the low slot. One of the concerns is that his low 3/4 slinging slot allows left-handed hitters seeing the ball too clearly, but Nola’s plus changeup does the heavy lifting here; his above average command and aggressive approach also help keep hitters off balance.  55 FV translates to above average, #3/#4 starter, 2.5 WAR.
  • BA – Grade 60, Risk Medium.  No. 3 Starter (comp, Orioles Chris Tillman) needed some work, fairly polished.

While we all hope he becomes a #2 starter in the rotation, it appears that may be just slightly above his ceiling.  (Note: Cole Hamels is their comp for a #2 starter.)

 

 

 

Box Score Recap – 7/19/2015

Box Score Recap

The Clearwater Threshers interrupted their 20-game excursion against teams from the FSL South Division with a three game series against North Division cellar dweller Lakeland.  The Threshers halted their three game losing streak, scoring single runs in three different innings.  All three runs came with two outs.  Ricardo Pinto enjoyed the longest start of his career.  And Jesen Therrien came in to pick up a one inning save.

Clearwater (53-41) beat the Lakeland Flying Tigers 3-1.  Ricardo Pinto threw eight, 3-hit innings, walking one and striking out three.  He pitched seven scoreless innings after the Tigers scored an unearned run in the first inning.  Ironically, an errant pickoff throw by Pinto helped set up the run.  After the first inning, Pinto faced the minimum over the next seven innings.  Only two runners reached base – a single in the second was thrown out when the batter tried to stretch it to a double, and a walk in the eighth was erased on a double play.  Jesen Therrien powered through a 1-2-3 ninth inning for his second save. Continue reading Box Score Recap – 7/19/2015 →

Box Score Recap – 7/18/2015

Box Score Recap

Brandon Leibrandt pitched on Eighties Night in Clearwater.  First, he threw 83 pitches.  Second, his fastball was in the mid-to-upper 80s.  And, third 85.9% of the 64 pitches that registered on the radar gun were in the 80s.  See what I did there.  Eighties night, 83 pitches, upper 80s FB, 85.9% in the 80s.  Seriously, this game followed a similar pattern for Leibrandt.  He lives in the 80s and pitches out of jams.  The most glaring difference tonight was the 2 walks.  He normally has much better control.  The hit batter wasn’t a big deal, he was trying to establish the inside part of the plate.  It was a shame that it came as the seventh pitch of the at bat on a 1-2 pitch.

Clearwater (52-41) lost to the Palm Beach Cardinals 7-2.  Brandon Leibrandt pitched 6.0 innings.  He gave up 1 run on 5 hits, 2 walks, and a HBP.  His strike/ball was 52/29.  He also caught a runner trying to steal third.  Leibrandt left with a 2-1 lead that was provided by a Mitch Walding 2-run HR (3).  The bullpen took over and imploded over the next 3 innings. Continue reading Box Score Recap – 7/18/2015 →

Around the System–Relief Pitching, LV, REA and CW

Other Stuff

Lehigh Valley

Juan Gutierrez, 32, Signed as a free agent in 2015; 13G, 3-1 with a 2.04ERA; 2SV; 17.2IP 24H 6BB 15K; .316 opp avg; 1.70 WHIP; 0.73 GO/AO; 3.1BB/7.3K per 9; .379 vs LH, .255 vs RH; His line indicates that he has been extremely lucky that his ERA isn’t above 5.

Dalier Hinojosa, 29, Picked up off of waivers in 2015; Has not yet pitched in the Phils organization; For Pawtucket: 19G; 3-1 with a 3.21ERA; .248 opp avg; 1.33WHIP; 3.6BB/8.4K per 9.  Interesting pickup who has some major league time for the Red Sox.

Cesar Jiminez, 30, Re-signed as a free agent in 2015; 33G, 2-3 with a 3.14ERA; 4SV;48.2IP 48H 15BB 34K; .258 opp avg; 1.29 WHIP; 1.12 GO/AO; 2.9BB/6.3K per 9; .235 vs LH, .271 vs RH, .242 over last 30 days.  Jiminez has dominated AAA the last two year and has been far less dominating this year.  He has been steady, but less than outstanding.

Tyler Knigge, 26, Phils 12th round pick in 2010; 27G, 0-0 with a 4.87ERA between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 40.2IIP 48H 15BB 30K; .312 opp avg; 1.55 WHIP; 1.02 GO/AO; 3.3BB/6.6K per 9; 19G for Lehigh Valley; 5.14ERA; .343 opp avg; 1.75 WHIP.  A disappointing year for Knigge who has not been able to get hitters out at the AAA level.

Adam Loewen, 31, Signed as a free agent in 2014; 32G between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 2-3 with a 2.44ERA; 6SV; 48IP 37H 30BB 57K; .219 opp avg; 1.40 WHIP; 0.95 GO/AO; 5.4BB/10.7K per 9; Since June 1: 18G 0-1 with a 2.05ERA; 26.1IP 8BB 38K; Loewen’s command was brutal at the beginning of the year in Lehigh Valley.  He was sent to Reading and found it and has been overpowering since.  I would like to see how he would handle the majors as a situational lefty.

Dustin McGowan, 33, Signed as a free agent in 2015; 13G (1 start); 2-1 with a 5.19ERA; 5/6SV; 17.1IP 19H 7BB 10K; .275 opp avg; 1.50 WHIP; 0.83 GO/AO; 3.6BB/5.2K per 9; .344 vs LH; .216 vs RH. McGowan was awful for the Phils this year and mediocre at best in the minors.

Nefi Ogando, 26, Acquired from Boston in 2013; 30G, 3-3 with a 2.28ERA; 3/8SV; 43.1IP 29H 23BB 42K; .190 opp avg; 1.20 WHIP; 0.98 GO/AO; 4.8BB/8.8K per 9; 6G and 8.2 scoreless innings thus far for Lehigh Valley.  Ogando has taken a step forward this year, and with him on the 40 man roster, I would be surprised if he didn’t see a cup of coffee in Philly come September.

Seth Rosin, 26, Returned via Rule 5 draft in 2014,32G, 3-1 with a 4.02ERA: 3SV; 47IP 57H 15BB 30K; .292 opp avg; 1.51 WHIP; 1.18 GO/AO; 2.9BB/5.8K per 9; .341 vs LH, .252 vs RH, .400 opp avg last month; Rosin continues mired in mediocrity.

Reading

Ethan Martin, 26, Acquired from Dodgers in 2012; 10G; 1-0 with a 5.71ERA; 17.1IP 21H 7BB 6K; .304 opp avg; 1.62 WHIP; 0.79 GO/AO; 3.6BB/3.1K per 9; .222 vs LHP; .350 vs RHP.  Martin’s fall continues as he has gone from top prospect to afterthought after injuries and ineffectiveness have relegated him the AA mop up man.  His strikeout rate is the lowest in the organization and he is now eminently hittable.

Tom Windle, 23, Acquired from Dodgers in 2015; 19G (14 starts); 3-5 with a 5.03ERA: 78.2IP 83H 43BB 50K; .286 opp avg; 1.60 WHIP; 1.26 GO/AO; 4.9BB/5.7K per 9; .239 vs LH, .308 vs RH, Opp avg: .174 in July. 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 5 relief appearances.  Many projected Windle as a reliever in the big leagues and that occurred sooner than we thought because of significant problems in the Reading rotation this year. A lack of command combined with the fact that he was getting hit landed him in the ‘pen, where he has had some early success. Continue reading Around the System–Relief Pitching, LV, REA and CW →

Box Score Recap – 7/17/2015

Box Score Recap

Clearwater (52-40) lost to the Palm Beach Cardinals 2-0.  Victor  Arano and the Cardinals’ Luke Weaver were locked in a pitchers’ duel for seven innings.  After the Cardinals posted a first inning run, the two pitchers combined to limit batters to 4 hits through the end of the seventh inning.  Neither pitcher walked a batter.  Their low pitch counts and the need for only one coach’s visit to the mound per team, accounted for the game’s short duration (2:17).  Weaver flirted with a perfect game into the fifth inning. Continue reading Box Score Recap – 7/17/2015 →

Around the System, Starting Pitching–Lakewood, WP and GCL

Other Stuff

Lakewood

Ranfi Casimiro, 23, Signed as a free agent in 2011; 15 starts, 5-5 with a 3.52ERA; 87IP 86H 20BB 53K; .256 opp avg; 1.22 WHIP; 0.84 GO/AO; 2.1BB/5.5K per 9; .264 vs LH; .250 vs RH, .275 last 30 days; .208 with RISP.  Casimiro has pitched well this year and with 40 starts at the Low A level is ready to be moved to Clearwater.

Einiery Garcia, 20, Signed as a free agent in 2011; 14 starts, 6-7 with a 3.29ERA; 82IP 89H 24BB 45K; .283 opp avg; 1.38 WHIP; 1.34 GO/AO; 2.6BB/4.9K per 9; .235 vs LH, .301 vs RH, .297 opp avg last 30 days; .256 with RISP.  Garcia’s season has to be considered a successful one thus far with consistent positive results.  I would expect his innings to be monitored pretty closely in the short term as his workload is substantially beyond anything he has done in years passed.

Austin Davis, 22, Phils 12th round pick in 2014; 25 games, 3 starts; 2-2 with a 2.41ERA; 52.1IP 36H 29BB 41K; .194 opp avg; 1.24 WHIP; 0.90 GO/AO; 5.0BB/7.1K per 9; .207 vs LHP; .188 vs RHP; .190 last 30 days; 2-0 with a 1.93ERA in 3 starts.  Davis just joined the rotation and has pitched very well.  His control issues from earlier in the season seem to be resolving.

Shane Watson, 21, Phils Compensation round pick in 2012; 4 starts between GCL and Lakewood; 0-1 with a 5.40ERA; .383 opp avg; 2.49 WHIP; 8.5BB/10,8K per 9.  Watson has had minimal work since coming off both the suspended list and the injured list.  He has been extremely unimpressive.

Tyler Viza, 20, Phils 32nd round pick in 2013; 15 starts, 4-5 with a 4.23ERA; 87.1IP 85H 26BB 62K; 9HR allowed; 2.7BB/6.4K per 9; .254 opp avg; 1.27 WHIP; 1.23 GO/AO; .273 vs LHP; .239 vs RHP; .320 opp avg last month; .313 with RISP.  Overall decent progress from Viza who has struggled a bit recently.

Williamsport

Mitch Guellar, 21, Phils Comp A round pick in 2012; 4 starts, 3-1 with a 3.27ERA; 22IP 17H 6BB 13K; .215 opp avg; 1.05 WHIP; 0.86 GO/AO; 2.5BB/5.3K per 9; .152 vs. LHP; .261 vs RHP.  Guellar has pitched well early on, as he should at this stage.  The goal should be for him to get a few Lakewood starts in before the end of the season.

Denton Keys, 20, Phils 11th round pick of 2013; 4 starts, 0-1 with a 5.00ERA; 18IP 18H 6BB 13K; .257 opp avg; 1.33 WHIP; 1.93 GO/AO; 3.0BB/6.5K per 9; .241 vs LH; .268 vs. RH.  Not atrocious, but not great

Jose Taveras, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2013; 4 starts, 2-1 with a 1.42ERA; 19IP 11H 8BB 18K; .177 opp avg; 1.00 WHIP; 1.00 GO/AO; 3.8BB/8.5Kper 9; .222 vs LHP; .159 vs LHP; Taveras has been outstanding in the early going.

Alejandro Arteaga, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2010; 5 starts, 3-0 with a 1.24ERA; 29IP 17H 9BB 25K; .168 opp avg; 0.90 WHIP; 2.8BB/7.8K per 9; .200 vs LH; .143 vs RH. Having already made 11 starts above this level, Arteaga was expected to produce well and he has back in Williamsport.  I would expect him to be the first starter to move to Lakewood when its time.

Franklyn Kilome, 20, Signed as a free agent in 2013; 3 starts, 2-0 with an 0.54ERA; 16.2IP 8H 6BB 14K; .140 opp avg; 0.84 GO/AO.  Simply dominant however missed his last two starts injured.  Expected to make his next start.

GCL

Sam McWilliams, 19, Phils 8th round pick in 2014; 3 starts, 0-0 with a 0.56ERA; 16IP 8H 1BB 8K; 0.6BB/4.5K per 9; .148 opp avg; 0.56 WHIP; .200 vs LH, .103 vs RH.  Only 3 starts but has been very good bolstered by a great walk rate.

Felix Paulino, 20, Signed as a free agent in 2013; 4 starts; 2-1 with a 2.25ERA; 20IP 15H 4BB 20K; .211 opp avg; 0.95WHIP; 1.8BB/9.0K per 9; .217 vs LH, .208 vs RH.  Excellent thus far.

Adonis Medina, 18, Signed as a free agent in 2013, 4 games (3 starts); 15IP 10H 5BB 14K; .204 opp avg; 1.00 WHIP; 2.7BB; 8.4K per 9.

Ranger Suarez, 19, Signed as a free agent in 2011; 5 games (3 starts); 21.2IP 13H 3BB 15K; .173 opp avg; 0.74WHIP; 1.2BB/6.2K per 9; .200 vs LH; .167 vs RH; Doing everything you would want a young pitcher to do.

 

Aaron Nola promoted to Philadelphia

Other Stuff

The Phillies have called up 2014 1st round pick Aaron Nola and he is expected to make his major league debut next Tuesday against Tampa at Citizens Bank Park.  Nola’s quick rise through the system has been well documented with him going 10-4 with a 2.39 ERAin 18 combined starts between Reading and Lehigh Valley this year.  His outing last night for Lehigh Valley was perhaps his worst outing of the year (3IP 7H 5ER 2BB 3K), however it should be nothing more than a blip on the radar screen.  Over the last year, Nola has proven that he has big league stuff and big league stuff that is ready now.  With the horrendous condition of the Phils pitching staff and the manner in which Nola’s production has come (great stuff and great pitching IQ), it is time.