Open Discussion: Week of July 20th

Here’s an open discussion thread so the minor league posts don’t get cluttered with Phillies’ talk and other topics.

The Phillies returned from the All Star break and swept the Miami Marlins.  The Phillies lead for the #1 draft pick was whittled down from 9.5 GB to 7.0 GB, in just three games.  Let’s get Utley off the DL and back in the three-hole.

Aaron Nola makes his MLB debut Tuesday night at home against the Tampa Rays.  Might be one of the largest crowds of the season.

I’m sure expectations are high.  I would hope that we all rein in these expectations.  I found these reports on Nola –

  • MLB – FB 60, SL 50, CH 60, Control 60, Overall 55.  Nola has tremendous command of his three-pitch arsenal. He spots his low-90s fastball to both sides of the plate, and his three-quarters arm slot adds plenty of action to the pitch. His changeup is a plus offering at times, and his slider has improved to give him a third quality offering.  While Nola lacks the ideal size for a right-hander, he has all the necessary tools to succeed as a big league starter.
  • FanGraphs – FB 55/60, CU 50/60, CH 50/60, Command 45/55, FV 55.  Nola creates above average life on his fastball and changeup with the spin he puts on the ball from the low slot. One of the concerns is that his low 3/4 slinging slot allows left-handed hitters seeing the ball too clearly, but Nola’s plus changeup does the heavy lifting here; his above average command and aggressive approach also help keep hitters off balance.  55 FV translates to above average, #3/#4 starter, 2.5 WAR.
  • BA – Grade 60, Risk Medium.  No. 3 Starter (comp, Orioles Chris Tillman) needed some work, fairly polished.

While we all hope he becomes a #2 starter in the rotation, it appears that may be just slightly above his ceiling.  (Note: Cole Hamels is their comp for a #2 starter.)

 

 

 

243 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of July 20th

  1. Phillies are now on a 3 game winning streak. Francoeur becomes a better trade chip and Cesar finally gets a hit that made it of the infield . Funny both pitchers tommorrow have Era over 7.

    1. If I were a GM of another team, I would not be ready to give top prospects for Hamels at this time, when he suddenly has hit pretty much the roughest patch of his career. Barring a tremendous start or two before July 31st, I think that they will have to hold on to Hamels for a while longer to get value for him.

  2. I watched a show on PBS called something like, What happened to my game of Baseball. It was a local view of Springfield, Ma baseball. Back as late as the 70’s, Springfield had Twilight, American Legion, semi-pro and Industrial Leagues. Every evening you could catch 2 or 3 games, if you wanted. Between 3,000 to 5,000 fans would show up mid-week to see an Industrial League game. 11,000 fans would pack every ball park on weekends. Guys who played the game did it for pure enjoyment. Some of those players were interviewed and said that if magically they could get a call from the Red Sox to play on a Tuesday night, they’d do it for free.

    Then Major League baseball went Hollywood. TV became the demise of most of these leagues. People asked if you would like to see a bunch of local guys play live or see the Red Sox or Yankees on the tube? The answer was a resounding Red Sox on TV. Pretty soon guys weren’t playing for the love of the game, it was all about money. People would open their morning newspaper, do you remember what one of those looked like, and turned to see how many millions of dollars a Major Leaguer signed for. They didn’t turn to the local baseball reports to see who won between the Beerleaguers and the Rusty Nails.

    Unintended consequences are the rule today and not the exception. A guy who can hit the ball 500 feet makes $25M a year but has trouble walking and chewing gum. The President of the US and every Congressperson makes less than the Major League minimum (for the most part). The guys who will decide the fate of our country, who mostly can walk and chew gum… and at the same time, are paid like low level Managers in most corporations. Weird world we live in where people will live and die with the scores of their favorite baseball team but can’t drive 3 miles or less to vote.

    I didn’t expect this to jump to an indictment of our society but that’s where it went. So be it…

  3. One thing I disagree with is congressman, What they make on the books is less. but the under the table money is unreal. They make those side deals with guys who back them and make a ton. but agree with the rest about the game.

    1. yes, politicians increase their net worth tremendously while supposedly being public servants. baseball players becoming high paid entertainers would rank pretty far down in my list of issues with our society; the damaging effect of highly paid ballplayers is its more expensive for me to go to a game, and it drives up my cable tv rates; the Pres and congress leave a lot more important problems than that in their wake
      meanwhile, minor league ball continues to do pretty well in this country.

      1. I think it is the other way around – rising revenues has resulted in rising salaries. Owners wouldn’t pay the salaries if they didn’t have the money and you can see MLB revenues have been on a tear for years.

  4. Cole Hamels often mentions how many factors are out of his control (team offense, what the front office decides, etc.). Now he is more in control of his destiny. How he pitches in two starts before the trading deadline will help determine his final value for teams willing to deal an elite prospect. If Hamels remains with the Phils for the rest of the season, it will be because he pitched two more clunkers (not likely to happen) and/or major trades won’t occur until McPhail takes the reins.

    1. As I understand it, it’s really about the next start. If he pitches well enough to alleviate concerns hopefully his trade value won’t be seriously affected. If he doesn’t pitched well it’s quite conceivable that they won’t get enough to move him, which would be bad for Hamels and the Phillies.

      1. I agree. He has to produce in his next start this weekend or the Phils won’t be offered enough to move him at this time. Franceur may stay because what are teams offering for him, an A level marginal prospect?

  5. While you may be right that teams may be interested in his next start, that is just stupid logic. The guy has 8 years of MLB experience, and GM’s are going to put that much weight on a 3 game sample size? Pretty sad if true.

    1. I agree. His trade value isn’t affected what so ever. Teams will try to use his last 2 starts against RAJ but we all know (as well as other GMs know) that he is one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball.

      1. GMs always try to get over on RAJ more recently it seems to me that he has been holding firm in his demands. My fingers are crossed that he and the powers that be make outstanding moves at the deadline.

    2. Those GM’s are not serious.

      Cole’s book of work is large enough that the bad starts are ignored.

      From his POV, he has been linked to Boston, Toronto, Texas, and Houston in terms of almost complete deals that have fallen apart for one reason or another.

      What he is doing is the classic ‘guy is thinking about the contract/trade.’

      If he doesn’t go I expect this to be the norm for the rest of the season. It is his way of applying leverage.

        1. It is a huge dance and I am sure Cole is sick and tired of it by now.

          Amaro has a deal to Houston but Cole will not go. The Rangers will not put together a package for Cole even though that is a destination.

          Amaro has a deal to Toronto but Cole will not go. The Red Sox will not put together a package for Cole even though that is a destination.

          The Dodgers and Padres will not put together packages for Cole even though he wants to go there.

            1. For the most part.
              I wonder if the Yankees are in play.
              Rangers are slumping bad now…better hope they get it together in 10 days.
              LAD will not give up Seager or Urias, so who knows what happens with them. They will lose Greinke after the season, so they may want Hamels long-term. Perhaps they may want Amaro to take Puig in a Hamels deal.
              Lots of noise and static for sure.

    3. I disagree. When you are doing a transaction of that nature, it’s easy to get skittish, especially with a pitcher. Don’t kid yourself, if he gets hammered in his next start it is really going to cut into the consideration the Phillies are offered, whether or not that’s a valid reason to trim an offer is another discussion.

      1. I disagree. Hamels is giving up a lot of singles. His velo and periphrials all show no red flags.

        It’s clear he’s a guy sick of playing in front of a bad defense (his body language in New York and San Fran) and pitching 7 innings of shut out ball with no support. He needs a change of sceneray and I think most GMs realize this.

        I used this comparison on another site but look at Greinke’s last year as a Royal. He was disinterested all year and put up a 4 something era.

  6. Hey Jim, I agree I am hoping they start Nola against other teams 3-5’s. I don’t have the stats but one of the many problems with the Phils over the past two years hinged on Lee not staying in the 1 spot. Hamels is a good 2 but he is only a 1 on a team with no real 1. He has not faired well (really since 2009) consistently going up against good 1’s even 2’s in some cases since he was really a 3 when Halladay and Lee were in the rotation. Also the next guy in line after Hamels has suffered with Lee not being around. Take AJ Burnett and Harang. I mean Harang is more of a 4 or 5 on most teams, but as AJ is showing he is not a bad 3 or 4. AJ held his own at the beginning of last year if I remember as a 2 but he eventually got worn down and then started getting shelled. Same with Harang he is not even a 3. He held his own for a while but…..

    My concern is Nola being on a bad team up against superior SP.

    1. This only really matters at like the start of the season and in the post season. Pitching match ups end up being rather random as the year goes on.

      1. Hmmm, it has not happened in the last two years, but the Phils specifically would re-set there rotation at the breaks. Yes it gets random as both halfs roll on. But if you have a rotation like the Phils had or like some of the other clubs with 2-3 1’s or 2’s it makes a huge difference if your AJ or Harang and you are consistently facing them.

        The is a real reason for 1’s – 5’s and the strategies employed by teams through out the season.

      1. Good detailed analysis of Cole Hamels’ pitch evolution to his current ace level.
        Now, sell that to some of the GMs who claim to be analytically inclined.

        1. every team in the league would love to have Hamels. Most can’t afford his reasonable contract because they just don’t have the budget. But many have the budget and are trying to get the best deal.

          1. Sure every team would want 50% of the SP’s out there but your right are they going to pay his salary, give up good prospects with the way he is pitching right now?

    2. Hamels isn’t an ace because he matches up against another team’s ace and gets 0 runs to work with?

      Hamels has gone to to toe with Lester, Price, Strasburg, Harvey, Zimmerman, Cueto, and held his own. It’s a team sport generally he’s faced a better line up than the one the Phillies put out.

      1. No one is saying he isn’t an ace. He just is not a very good one right now (last few starts), and he has not been a consistently good one, like a Halladay. My only point is that he is streaky. When is is on a good run he is awesome, when he is on a bad one, not so much. The 2008 and 2009 playoffs are good examples, or earlier this year vs now.

        1. Calling Cole Hamels streaky demonstrates that you really have no idea how baseball works. He is the model of consistency over the past 6 years. Players have bad games here and there. It happens to everyone. Slumps happen even to every Hall of Fame player. It’s baseball.

  7. That it I have heard everything on here. COLE IS NOT A NUMBER1. what a joke and I bet he is serious. The pitcher with the worst run support in baseball. playing with this joke of a team and isn’t a ace.

    2014 30 PHI NL 9 9 .500 2.46 30 30 0 0 0 0 204.2 176 60 56 14 59 3 198 8 1 6 829 149 3.07 1.148 7.7 . yeah this isn’t a aces numbers. omg I am going nuts

    1. Sorry roccom, Hamels had some Amazing stretches, but he also had some not so good ones. In 2009 he was really bad during the playoffs and he was not much of a 1 in fact Pedro cam back from nowhere and was better than him in the playoffs. From 2009 until Lee’s arm problems he was a 2 and 3 in this rotation. That is not my opinion that is fact.

      As stated he is a 1 on many teams but there are much better 1’s (and worse ones) out there right now.

      1. Kershaw was worse in the playoffs the last two years than Hamels was in 2009… Is he not an ace?

        Heck Hamels out pitched Kershaw twice in the 2009 playoffs.

    2. rocco…GMs know Hamels is a 43 WAR player over his 10 seasons. Take out 2009 and his rookie year and that number is higher. He could be a number one on 23 of the 30 teams in baseball.

      1. Take out 2009 and his rookie year and that number is higher. …the average yearly WAR is what I meant.

        1. Stats are great, but if you watched Hamels, Lee, and, Halladay from 2009 on (until Halladay and Lee) They were way more consistent at pitching a good game every night.

          1. That is not true at all. Lee had stretches just like Hamels is having now and then would go on a stretch where he’d throw up some scoreless Inning. Those guys were also in the height of their careers while Hamels was a younger pitcher just entering his prime.

            1. Hmmm, just entering his prime. And what indication is there for him just entering his prime?

              I mean come on, I love Hamels, I appreciate his career. His definitely an Ace, he has had stretches of being amazing, but I would have concerns if I was a GM about giving up good prospects at this point for him.

              I see nothing that tells me he is entering his prime.

            2. OH I re-read and your saying he was younger than Halladay and Lee and just entering his prime. Ya I just have not seen consistent dominant pitching since entering his prime.

      2. One fact too is this team has a bad defense, the outfielders have been bad for a while. at least two years. Howard has no movement, and asche at third was bad. it was rollins and Utley as great defensive players. How many balls did revere misjudged last year. so you have factor in the defense,

        1. Your right this is an awful team. That’s part of my concern with Nola, but I do agree they need some type of positive, and him staying on an awful team in Allentown is not going to help him.

    1. Now the puzzler:
      MLB ranks his CU as a 60…no CB rating….BP not so much on the CU….go figure.
      Fastball: 60 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 60 | Overall: 55

      1. Some of these grades are fair, others are ridiculous. Command as a 45/55? Huh? That’s what makes him special. Command is like 60/75 or 65/75. It’s at least a 60 right now, but I’d rank it as a 65 and I think it’s only going to improve.

    2. This was the best and most fair analysis of all I read – on command, the article nails it (“He has plus command, and at some point, it might be plus-plus.”).

      His likely ceiling is as a #2, but he has more than an outside chance of becoming an ace – call it like a 25-35% chance. Most of us like really hard throwers, and for good reason. But Nola is one of those rare non-flame throwers who has a chance to become an ace because what he does can be extremely effective, he does it phenomenally well.

      If there’s ever going to be another Greg Maddux (and sooner or later, there will be), that person will look a lot like Aaron Nola and, in fact, that person could be Aaron Nola.

    1. Not an Insider…what are the other three factors?
      1. Scouting reports: ………………
      2. Statistics and analytics from high school to present:…………….
      Combining them: You then blend the scouting reports and analytics………..

      1. It discusses how trade negotiations work. That both sides start out with ridiculous offers. And both sides think the other is over valuing. But they will get closer and closer as a deadline nears and if the buying team truly wants the player, they can typically find common ground.

    2. I also recommend it.

      A key point: every team has a data base of information on all prospects from rookie ball up through AAA, not just for their own franchise, but for the other 29 organizations as well (As good as Keith Law may be, every single team has a lot more information and resources available to evaluate prospects.).

      Bowden describes hypothetical trade negotiations between a rebuilding team and a contender. The rebuilding team is making available an ace pitcher with multiple years remaining on his contract (sounds like Hamels). Initially, the contender makes a low-ball offer, and the rebuilding team is shooting for the moon. The teams go back and forth over a month or so; finally, at the trade deadline, the contender finally caves and offers up one of its untouchables plus a No.19 prospect. The rebuilding team accepts (This sounds a little different from the way the media has characterized the Hamels’ “negotiations”.).

  8. 1 Crawford
    2. Nola
    3. Randolph
    4. Efflin
    5. Quinn
    6. Tocci
    7. Pujols
    8. Kilome
    9. Knapp
    10 Altherr

  9. RemHoward2011 et al,
    Whether a pitcher is a 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 is determined by his pitching repertoire, command, and make up. It doesn’t matter who else is in his team’s pitching rotation. Nor does it matter who pitches against him in a game. The following defines what BA considers to be the determining factors when grading a pitcher.

    #1 – Two plus pitches, average third pitch, plus-plus command, plus make up.
    #2 – Two plus pitches, average third pitch, average command, average make up.
    #3 – One plus pitch, two average pitches, average command, average make up.
    #4/5 – Command of two major league pitches, average velocity, consistent breaking ball, decent change-up

    From FanGraphs – “Most scouts agree there are only ever 8-12 pitchers that could be called #1s or aces at any given time, but then there’s like 20 #2s and like 75 #3s. Many fans get tripped up by this term, thinking there are 30 of each type or that every team has exactly one version of each; that’s an understandable misunderstanding.”

    And finally, from what I’ve read on various 20-80-scales, for a fastball to be a plus pitch it should average 93 MPH. If a pitcher’s fastball falls into a 91-93 MPH range, he has an above avearge fastball.

  10. One more thought on Nola. The reason that we see pitchers like Cliff Lee and Chris Carpenter dominate with low 90s fastballs is because they have elite command. The reason that elite command is so valuable is because EVERY hitter has a hole in his swing. Some players (Ryan Howard) have bigger holes in their swing than others. But every hitter has a zone which they crush and a zone which they can’t hit. If a pitcher can hit that zone, it almost (within a reasonable range) doesn’t matter what stuff the pitcher has. And vice versa. MLB hitters would much rather face a 96 mph fastball in their happy zone than a 91 mph fastball in their weak zone.

    Now, if you can have movement on top of the command then you can be elite. If you can move the pitch late from what looks like a happy zone to a weak zone, you will get a ton of weak contact. Pitch speed (within a reasonable range) won’t matter.

    IMO, Nola has great command with very good movement. I think that as he matures, his command and movement will only get better. I honestly don’t know the difference between a #1 or a #2, but I think that he will be a high quality pitcher for the Phillies for a long time (barring an injury).

    1. Right, which is why, even throwing 91 and 92, Papelbon has a plus fastball. The pitch has plus movement and he throws it with plus command even if it only has slightly above average velocity at this point. Agreed on Nola – it’s not clear whether he will be a 1, a 2 or even a 3, but he’s the type of player around which you can begin to build a championship team. He’s a solid building block at worst.

    2. We get so caught up at times on velocity that we often forget about command.

      Great pitchers can put a pitch anywhere no matter what the velocity.

      I have always favored command and control over velocity.

      1. David….it would seem, .you can have good control but bad command. So some pitchers with the 95plus velo may throw the strike, but not able to command it into the different quadrants of the strike-zone

  11. How many good pitchers throw 90 or lower that are right-handed. I am so tried of the bull about velo doesn’t count. Last night because he has a great slider and good command paps. 93 mph fastball look like a hundred. If he threw 89-90 he wouldn’t be as effective. They would take his breaking ball waiting for that low velo fastball. sorry you can talk all you want but few right-handers can get away with the velo like Buchanan has and Kendrick. I don’t care about command. cause unless your greg Maddox and get 6 inches off the plate. Guy will lay on that weak fastball. Guys have to fear that you will blow it by them. it makes all your other pitches so much better.

    1. Glad you brought up Greg Maddux….that is who I would comp Aaron Nola to, if I had to. His Reading manager did it earlier in the year.
      But getting back to your point and velo……not every pitcher who throws 94/95 become great pitchers….Geoff Geary if I recall could bring it up there, Henry Rodriguez was close to 100 as a Nat.
      But relievers are different then 6/7 inning starters who have to keep the velo going.
      Everyone wants a starter who can sit at 94/95, but they are hard to come by.
      Then there is the other obstacle that seems to besiege high velo guys….TJ frequency and the dreaded labrum.

  12. Didn’t say that all high velo pitcher are great. look at diekman, aumont. But right-handers with low velo have little chance to be good major league pitchers. You will find some, but if you cant keep a hitter honest. your in trouble. that’s the point. I am talking about right-handers.

    1. Cueto throws 92
      John Lackey throws 91
      Tim Hudson threw 90 his entire career
      Lance Lynn throws 91/92
      Jason Hamel throws 92

      i can keep going. it is actually very easy to find high quality RH starting pitchers that throw in the low 90s

      1. Jason hammel Is below 500 lifetime pitcher or does he have a twin brother? with a 4.26 era?

      2. Yes, I think we all agree that some right handed pitchers can be very effective with only average fastballs, but they are the exception, not the rule, and where they are able to get away with those fastballs they have to do some other things extremely well. Having great velocity doesn’t guarantee success, but it helps enormously. I’m not really posting in response to your post, I just keep seeing people arguing back and forth about velocity and I think the arguments are kind of misplaced. Of course velocity is important and having more of it greatly increases a pitcher’s chances of success.

  13. viagain your so wrong its funny/ you must watch a different cueto than I have. And how many good pitchers do you think you will find out of a hundred with low velo right-handers? We are very lucky your not the gm, drafting righthanders with low velo will get you fired. Look at triple a loaded with 89-90 right-handers who cant make it to big leagues. But you keep believe you are right .

  14. Have said the Dodgers all year and still sticking with that. Are we all in agreement that this trade deadline will not be like last year? RAJ has to pull the trigger at least 3 times, doesn’t he?

    1. not if he does not get value for one of the best closers and starting pitchers in the league. To enact a time constraint when it is not necessary would be foolish

  15. At the game last night.
    Nola everything as advertised.
    Sat at 91-93, T94. CB at 76/78
    Rays pitcher Karns’ HR was a 91 FB, though Rick B. said later it looked like a sinker. Pitchers’ get lucky sometimes at the plate.
    Easily top of rotation guy…an ace? who knows what that means anymore.

    1. Yup, I was there too – great game for Nola. Everyone who saw the game on TV probably can better report on what Nola did (you see a pitcher’s performance far better through a good TV shot than you do from the stands). As I said a while back, he’s already at least a 3 in the big leagues. He projects to being a 2 (I think that’s his most likely outcome), but could develop into an ace. Poise, movement, command and ability to throw any pitch on any count are exceptional. Hopefully he can improve his stamina later into games. He’s a different pitcher when he can reach back and throw a moving, perfectly located 93, 94 MPH fastball by a player than he is when he’s throwing 90 or 91 and trying to induce weak contact. But, hey, these are high class problems – the kid can obviously pitch. Once Hamels is traded he will be their best pitcher by a mile.

      1. Catch me and you are the only ones who believe in velo. 93-94 is a lot better than 89-90. It just set up everything else you throw. and if you have command, that is the difference between to me a really good to great pitcher. From a mediocre pitcher.

        1. rocco…..everyone agrees velo is important, especially for right handed pitchers. And it is the first key stop on a pitcher’s repertoire
          The high velo FB, is like a good juicy hamburger..stand alone is fine…but really completes it with a great roll and all the fresh veggies/condiments to garnish the sandwich.

        2. Everyone believes in velocity. Everyone would much rather have a pitcher who throws 95 than one who throws 90, all else equal.

          the point is, lack of command/control nullifies velo. It doesn’t matter how hard you throw if you can’t command it. And if you can command and paint the black at the knees, you can get away with a low 90s fb.

          if you watch Nola’s first K last night, it was a thing of beauty. outside, with movement at the knees. didn’t matter that it was low 90s. that pitch is un-hittable short of a weak grounder.

    2. Romus you were at the game.? Your a great fan to fly in for nolaS start. had to cost you a lot.

  16. On a potential Rangers trade match for Hamels: Am I the only one who is unimpressed with the non-Gallo prospects? Mazara’s ISO at AA this year is only a few points higher than Crawford’s with Reading, and Mazara’s splits remind me of Sebastian Valle. I’m not sure where the hype is coming from here …

    1. I really want Hamels to go to the dodgers. I have talked myself into liking a De Leon headlined deal.

      1. How about a three-way thingy.
        To LAD— Hamels
        To NYYankees- Puig
        To Phillies– Deleon and Judge

  17. They’d have to pay significant money to move Papelbon right, I mean they don’t have leverage in trying to move him.

      1. There are younger options on the market that are comparable financially in Chapman and Kimbrel. It was a bad contract for a team that was already declining to give to a closer, even if he performed he did so on a bad team and the money spend on him could have been utilized in a more efficient manner.

  18. One-third of current MLB pitchers have had Tommy John surgery. Of the about 360 who started the season, 124 share the all-too-familiar triangular scar. Anyone want to guess what the average velo was of the pitchers before their surgery?

  19. This may be the only trade they make! Jayson Stark, who has always had the inside scoop on the Phils and is one of the best Baseball writers around, blasts the Phils for dragging their feet on a Pap trade where Phils pay all of the option and get a really good prospect because they were waiting for McPhail’s opinion. Now teams have cooled off. The trouble with this team has always been from the top down, and while we all blast RAJ, from Giles to Monty all the way down, they all have to share in responsibility for this fiasco.

  20. I really don’t see a downside to not making the trade now, if they don’t see value. I Would let mc pail do the trades over gillick and ruben. I just don’t think we need to unload anyone just for the sake of salary. Now the one guy who is tough to me is revere. He will be arb eligible and is he worth 7 million ? I just don’t know.

  21. Hamels to the Cubs talk is heating up. The rumor is the Cubs want to get ahead of free agency this winter which is smart. Teams should be doing that after the absurd contracts handed out last season.

    I do agree with the Phillies about the infield prospects they are offering. Not that impressed by the offerings with Crawford a year away.

    1. Most FA pitchers will 6/7 years I assume….so Hamels does become more attractive at 3/4 years. Maybe Theo will also take Paps in a package deal, they have their WS history together.

  22. Romus cole was never going there. He would never okay going to Houston. It was well known. why I don’t know, but he crossed them and Toronto off the list.

      1. Foreign Exchange will eat away your dollars. Getting paid in Canadian dollars would give a 24% cut in pay unless there’s a clause that states you get paid in USD. You can visit Canada and make out like a bandit with FX but if you get paid there and live in the US, you can get killed by the FX.

        1. His contract would specify USD.

          You cannot just pay a guy the same amount in CAD.

          You are right about FX rates but the payment is not applicable in this case. Hamels would not take a cut in pay going to Canada.

  23. The Red Sox rumors have surfaced again for Cole, and the Rangers as well as they envision a big move next year and also don’t want a rental. I have believed all along that Cole would go to the Dodgers, but the Rangers have some good prospects that would really work. There is no reason at all to wait on a Pap trade. I am to the point where I take the highest valued prospect regardless of what salary they have to absorb. There is also no reason to keep Revere.

    1. I can see the Phils settling for a Margot/Devers from BoSox package at the deadline. Neither is a perfect prospect (those are not available), but the upside should be enough to part with a pitcher of Cole’s caliber.

      Nobody else is going to get you much more than half-scratched lottery tickets or future sixth/seventh inning arms, so they might as well just make some deals to start rebuilding the roster.

  24. matt ok I just would like to know your statement there is no reason to keep revere do we have on outfielder on this team that is a three hundred hitter with speed? do we have one top prospect with his potential that will be ready in two years , now watch I will get altheer 25 and in a slump. and Quinn who is hurt all the time. I am not a revere fan but he is better than anything at double a or triple a .So when I read the people on here it is getting crazy let get highest rated prospect for pap. how about if that prospect is a Buchanan type? I so glad we arent making the decision,

    1. rocco…Revere’s value now, based on production/performance, age, and contractual salary concerns, may be at its highest peak.
      You could very well get back a premier double-AA prospect, along with maybe a level ‘A’ player.
      Revere will probably not be in CF for the JPC/Nola/Franco/Eflin/Biddle maturation era, that may be some mix of Quinn/Tocci/Herrera.
      Now is to strike while the iron is hot.

      1. “You could very well get back a premier double-AA prospect, along with maybe a level ‘A’ player.”

        I certainly hope you’re correct, but … I do not see anyone giving up close to that kind of value for Revere.

        1. Not sure why Gott was removed from the LAA list….but he may be able to bring back a Nate Smith and/or Chris Ellis pitching tandem.

  25. Romus I just want value not the highest rated prospect / what does that mean. The best rated prospect might be another Kendrick. how would that help us. I want value for our players. that’s all. The Astros gave up a nice 20 yr old catcher along with a right hand relief pitcher both young. the catcher has hit three hundred the last two year in low a and now in high a with 14 homeruns. that is value for a pitcher who is hurt a lot. and is a rental.

    1. rocco….you make me laugh…Jacob Nottingham is a catching prospect…and you know how you feel about prospects. Oh…..he has only hit .300+ this year…the previous two season he was below .300

  26. Romus for a rental it was good value I thought based on the improvement of that kid he hit 300 last year with 10 hr. and 300 this year and is up two levels. What did you think kaz was worth ? he is hurt a lot and is in line for a new deal.

    1. Granted, on paper, it was good return for Billy Beane….though his Jeff Smardj. deal with the Cubbies could be classified a skunker.
      That is why I think a good GM could get another org’s top ten prospect for Revere.
      He has plenty of value.
      Trevor May was a Phillies top ten guy when they acquired Revere….and Vance Worley was not chopped liver.

  27. rocco, my point on Revere is that he is not a good CF defensively, and his value, whatever it is, is not going to be higher. It does not matter if he is better than what is at AA or AAA, because the Phils will be the worst team in the league again next year. I think that whatever prospect we get for him has a chance, while Revere will not a be a regular on any future playoff team. And, why have Pap here next year. Take a shot on some prospect, there is nothing to lose. Who needs a closer on a 50 win team?

    1. Matt what Rocco is trying to say is that Revere who had hit 300 twice and can steal 50 bases a yr can’t be replaced so easily. Nobody is coming threw the pipe line can do that. A team that needs a lead off hitter who can play LF And CF that can hit 300 like The Angels with Trout hitting behind him. Who in mlb last yr hit 300 and stole over 50 bases not many. He tied for first for hits last yr so yea I Hope we can get a good prospect. Most of this team won’t be here buy the time the Phillies are back in being a contender.

  28. As a 3B prospect Franco ranked no. 4 pre-season, behind Bryant, Gallo and Sano.

    I have had a chance to watch Bryant several times this season and do not believe he is a third baseman long term. He’s a great athlete who runs well, but he comes up short on quickness and reflexes.

    Sano may already be a DH, and Gallo may be moving off third as well.

    While all three of these guys may be stronger at the plate than Franco, Franco’s defense may offset some of their offensive advantage. I don’t know.

    I have not watched Franco play this season. I am curious about the current assessment of his D and wonder if he will stick at third.

    1. His fielding metrics aren’t good but he definitely passes the “eye test” with quick reactions and a rocket arm. If he can stay lean and not get really heavy I think he can remain at third.

    2. Franco has been voted the best third baseman in a few leagues..Sally and EL…on the way up…..by managers and coaches, they seem to have a little knowledge on skill levels.
      IMO, he stays at third.
      In fact I can see him challenging for a Gold Glove in 2017 or beyond.

  29. Romus I haven’t seen enough of Franco up here to really say one way or another. they are hard for me to watch. I remember about 10 yrs ago haven’t a argument a bout a third basemen who name I forgot. We traded for. I Believe everyone thought he was the best defensive third basemen. I kept saying he cant go to his left. Then someone like catch showed this metrics on fielding and prove he wasn’t as great as he looked.

  30. Tim, Isn’t what you stated the reason to trade him? He can bat leadoff very well for a team like the Angels. I think that is the best fit for him. I didn’t mean to imply that he should be given away, simply that his value is at its peak. The Pirates could use him as well.

    1. Right he was nice about too funny some one bought to me since Galvis is going to be replaced and is having a nice yr could be a chip too?

  31. Apparently Cubs offered Baez and Castro for Cole. Good upside but definitely not enough for cole especially considering the lack of need for players at that position. Phils need high upside pitchers or an OF/C/1B prospect

    1. I wouldn’t mind Baez as a second baseman as he still has a lot of upside. Hit 9 homers last year and is doing very well in AAA this year, but I want nothing to do with Castro. Not many years of protection left and seems like a bust, not to mention we’ve got JP on the way. Idk whats good with the cubs farm but the Phils need more of a sure thing for Cole. Maybe Baez and a top pitching prospect along with a high upside lottery pick.

        1. Slipped is an understatement. He’s nothing more than a salary dump at this point. No trade value whatsoever.

          1. I think no trade value is a little harsh, he had a 4 WAR season last year and I don’t think the Cubs really want to sell low on Castro anyways. Wouldn’t mind a package deal of McKinney, Baez and CJ Edwards

            1. Actually he had a 2 WAR season last year, a -0.4 in 2013 and is @ -0.7 this year. He screams “No Trade Value” although if you want to phrase it another way that’s fine.

              That is a package worth discussing. One with Castro is not.

  32. That is more like it. I have zero interest in Castro, and that leaves alone Russell, Soler and Schwarber, but still gives the Phils something good. I am still looking at the Dodgers and the Rangers. There seems to be a real lack of Papelbon rumors.

    1. The Phils front office may have really screwed up with not trading Paps when there was a deal in place about a month ago. I get the understanding of not wanting to trade a player until the new regime is in power, but I really don’t understand how that applies to players whose values are only going to trend downwards. The Phils should be willing to eat as much of Papelbon’s contract as they need to in order to get the best prospect back, he has nothing to contribute to the rebuilding process at all with Giles still in the ropes as the closer of the future.

      1. Yeah that seems like a massive failure on the part of the FO. Why not clear the salary off the books and get a prospect (or two) in the process. You don’t need a $13 million closed to win 55 games.

    2. Here’s my long shot prediction. Hamels to the Tigers as part of a 3-team trade that sends David Price to the Dodgers and Carl Crawford to the Phils. Tigers in this trade swap Cespedes (whose contract ends this year) for Puig who has ruffled feathers in L.A. Tigers send a pitching prospect, Buck Farmer, to help the back end of the Dodgers injury-depleted rotation. Phils send Francoeur to the Dodgers.

      The Phils would take P Jose DeLeon and OF Scott Schebler from the Dodgers and OF Steven Moya and P Joe Jimenez from the Tigers.

      The Tigers get Hamels and Puig under market rate team-controlled contracts which keep them below the luxury tax threshold and keep them competitive without getting into free agent bidding wars this off-season.

      The Dodgers become WS favorites in ’15 with a Kershaw-Greinke-Price TOR, remove the Puig problem with Cespedes who is having a better season. The Dodgers have shown they won’t be outbid on players they want so Price and Cespedes don’t figure as rentals, but as players to extend. Losing the Crawford contract keeps this manageable.

      Crawford’s contract is an albatross through ’17 but the Phils, by shedding salary elsewhere, are one of the few teams that could take it on, especially if moving other contracts like Hamels, Papelbon and Revere whom I think will be moved in separate deals. They get 4 valuable pieces. Carl Crawford, of course, is J.P. Crawford’s cousin, which could make it interesting in J.P.’s development.

      1. You must be a wiz in Fantasy Baseball.
        Many intriguing ideas for sure.
        Incidentally, on a side note of little importance, but Cespedes has one walk in the last month, whereas Paul Goldschimdt has over 20.

          1. PROSPECTS ARE JUST THAT PROSPECT. one maybe good prospect for hamels is nuts. But what do I know. lucas Williams is hitting 286

        1. No, not taking Crawford or his salary because of family relations, which is a coincidence. But at the point where discussion turns to eating salary, taking a bad contract makes sense if it maximizes the return. I assume that L.A. — maybe less than any other ownership group — would put a value on shedding a bad contract.

          The return is 3 prospects within the BA top #100, including outfielders with power ‘tools’ not found in the Phillies system currently. It’s fair to discuss whether the Phils could do better than this. I’m skeptical.

      2. None of the prospects we’d be getting are anything but a flyer really besides De Leon who honestly doesn’t even impress me that much. So we’re getting just that plus a terrible Crawford contract of $20+ mill over the next 2 years when that money could be spent on valuable FAs? I’ll pass.

  33. If McPhail’s input is so crucial this year, why go the whole season with RAJ and Gillick. They had a deal with him before the season started. They knew the Hamels trade is a crucial one. And, since the structure is in place now, why would McPhail not already have weighed in on a Pap trade? It is not like the return will change the face of the franchise. Here is how much we eat, here are 2 prospects, pick one. How hard is that? I am not being facetious. The Hamels trade is important, but just get Papelbon out already.

    1. Teams want the Phillies to eat most, if not all, of the option so it is not like you are getting $13 million off the books.

      If the Phillies are paying $10 million of the option they should get back a decent prospect but I think teams are saying ‘pay $10 million and take this A ball relief pitcher.’

        1. Paps should bring back, at least, one premier prospect….with the Phillies picking up 75% of his remaining contract/vesting option .

  34. unreal another david the Phillies do no wrong statement. How do you know what was offered?? I just don’t understand why the Phillies have to have people on here defending them

    1. Someday at the next parade down Broad Street….people will say ‘this was the team Ruben built!’ 🙂

    2. David you must not really understand what position the Phillies are in right now. Whether they trade Papelbon or not, they’re paying $13 mill for him next year and he serves no purpose as they’re gonna be a 55 win team and Giles needs to get experience as a closer already. If they get a team to take ANY part of his salary and give up a prospect on top of that, you have to take it at this point. Otherwise he’ll be getting paid $13 mill to sit on the bench while Giles is the closer because he has no future in Philly.

        1. You’re missing the point, David. First of all, you can’t compare Giles experience as a closer in AAA to experience as a closer in the MLB, there’s much more pressure and that’s a huge deal for a closer. Second, so if we don’t get a deal for Papelbon you suggest keeping Giles as the setup man for another year and pay Papelbon $13 mill to contribute to a team going nowhere? That’s silly, you take what you can get for Paps right now.

          1. That is not how the trade market works. If you are paying most of Paps salary next year you had better get something of value back in return.

            If you believe that you take what you can get then how do you value Hamels?

            Giles has filled in as closer and the Phillies know that he can do the job.

            It is not a big step up from the 8th to 9th inning. Giles will do just fine.

            1. Ricky Bo says closers have to have that ‘closer mentality’…that bulldog/mad-dog attitude.
              Does Ken Giles have that attitude?
              He seems to have it.

            2. Because Hamels has 3-4 years left on his deal and could therefore be part of the rebuilding process. That’s why the Phillies have leverage, they don’t need to trade him. If there was demand for Papelbon, I could see your point but it seems to me like nobody really wants a 32 year old closer with attitude problems and 1 year left on his deal at an above market price of $13 mill. The Phillies also need to trade him because he has no role in the rebuilding process.

              I agree, Giles can do the job but another year as a setup man can only hurt him in his development as an MLB closer. He needs MLB closer experience and the longer the wait the more of a chance there is of stunting his development.

  35. David, I am not arguing with you. My point is, simply, that MacPhail is not fully employed and too busy to take a break. Rather, he is not working and is available full time to consult. In the months leading up to his hiring, the trade possibilities have to have been discussed. There are few tradeable commodities and certainly Pap and having to eat $ is one of them. If Buster Olney or Peter Gammons wrote the story, I would disregard it, but Jayson Stark has always had good insight on the Phils. So, if it is true that a legitimate prospect was offered, regardless of the amount of $ the Phils had to eat, and they failed to act because Mac hadn’t gotten back to them yet, that is an indictment of the team and a real failure.

  36. Correct, and Stark may have been fed a bogus story, so my point is prefaced by a very big if. No closers, and if Kimbrel is on the market, that muddies the waters.

    1. Most stories now are bogus like all of he pro-Red Sox stories fed to Heyman.

      Only two closers available gives the Phillies a lot of power especially when Papelbon is one of the best in the game right now.

      It is a sellers market for closers which means the Phillies can wait for the best deal and not take what they can get.

  37. Hamels, Pap, and 27.5mil to the Cubs

    Baez, Torres, McKinney, Tseng, and Jimenez back in return

    If the cubs don’t want Pap maybe this could work:

    Hamels and 17.5mil for Baez, Torres, Mckinney and (Tseng, Jimenez, or another lesser prospect).

    Not a clear headliner between Baez and Torres, but either could potentially be penciled into 2B for a long time. McKinney does a little bit of everything and would be a definite upgrade in the OF. Tseng would give us an extra Mid-back end starter. Jimenez is the guy I really like. He draws comps to Soler and would be a great fit in RF if he pans out. Strong arm with an average hit tool and above average power is just what we need.

    Not sure if I’m asking too much or too little for Hamels, but Jimenez should be included in a deal to the Cubs. If Baez can just improve his plate discipline enough to hit .230-.240 and draw some walks his power will make him a useful player. I think his defense is good as well, but not sure. I don’t want to dump Hamels for a bad return, but I am worried that waiting until the offseason to move him is very risky. He will be 32 next year and there will be a lot of pitching in Free agency. I’d hate to see him get hurt, underperform, or be traded in a bad market.

  38. 17 million plus hamels for baez who fail once. McKinney who is one year in minors. torres I don’t know your kidding. lets just give hamels to any club and pay his whole contract for all there prospect who have failed. How about schwader to headline any deal or no deal. boston maggot and a there catcher to headline any deal. texas gallo to headline any deal. if not cole you will love philly in the winter. Nice restaurants. lots to see. you and pap will enjoy this city. the pope is coming. soon

    1. I would love to land a big name like Schwarber or Gallo, but teams have shown no interest to even consider those types of names. If the Phillies want a Schwarber or Gallo type prospect for Hamels they will probably have to eat a chunk of his deal to make him more attractive. Teams are very stingy with their prospects because of the years of cheap control they get from them. If the Phillies offered to eat half of Hamels deal I think a lot more teams would be open to trading a more elite prospect or two. 4 years of Hamels for about 45-50 mil, AAV around 11 or 12 mil would create a bigger market for Hamels and would allow a team like the Cubs to easily acquire him and a guy like David Price. Hamels contract is good compared to what this years free agents will get, but taking on apprx. 100mil and giving up one of your top prospects for a soon to be 32yo is not ideal for a club when cheaper options are available. An extra 3 years at 25 mil a year for an ace is nothing to a team like the dodgers or yankees if it means keeping your top prospects.

      My proposal could easily be tweaked to boost the return a bit, but the guys mentioned are good prospects. McKinney and Torres are both in the top 100. McKinney has been consistent in over 1100 PA in the minors. He is holding his own at AA as a 20yo and has plenty time to continue to develop. Him and Torres are showing that they can hit and get on base this year. That has been the problem with our farm in recent years. Too many athletic kids without the hit tool or ability to get on base.

      Baez is only 22 and IMO its way too early to give up on him. His numbers last year were not great, but his power is legit. If he can refine his approach a bit he will be a very dangerous hitter in the big leagues.

      Jimenez IMO would be a great prospect for us to acquire. He has average to above average tools across the board and could stick in RF. This is huge because we do not really have any power hitting RF prospects in the system.

      It is so difficult predicting or suggesting trades because we have no idea of what kind of offers teams are making for Hamels and what we are asking/looking for in exchange. This deal might not be a “clear win” or even a win for us, but it has the potential to be a steal. If Jimenez or Baez live up to their potential we will have a controllable power bat to build around. I think at the very least we McKinney looks like an everyday OF if everyone else busts, which could happen. Hamels could also throw his arm out like Lee and we get nothing if we don’t trade him.

      1. Baez is interesting. His MiLB K rate at 26%/ BB rate 7% are somewhat red-flags. going forward into the major leagues. And his brief time has not been too productive…HRs aside.
        But as a 2nd baseman he could be a strong power bat in the lineup.
        He could be am eventual BA/OBP .260/.340 guy…but with 20 HRs.

  39. Does anymore on here know what a starting pitcher like a hamels would get on the open market. David price is one year younger I believe. and he will get most likely a 7 yr 200 million plus contract. Hamels contract shouldn’t be a issue.

      1. Romus I still believe and I can be wrong. The nationals set the price on starting pitchers. I believe price at 30 will get 7 yrs 210. I still think hamels is cheap for a lot of teams. I Also think it doesn’t matter what I say. its gillick and mcphail call. and I can see mc phail being a little cautious on making a deal, and really might feel more comfortable waiting until winter. I Think it would be wrong for gillick to make this trade. since he isn’t the one who will get the blame if its a bad deal.

        1. Max Scherzer , at the time of his signing was a little younger then a Cole Hamels, if he were to sign a new contract in December 2015. So Hamels could command $30M, but probably at a shorter length of the contract.

        2. Here is the breakdown on Scherzer’s contract:
          It goes like this:
          2015: $10 million
          2016: $15 million
          2017: $15 million
          2018: $15 million
          2019: $35 million
          2020: $35 million
          2021: $35 million

          While it looks like Scherzer will be making $35 million per season from 2019-2021, it’s not going to work out that way. That total ($105 million) is being deferred without interest, reportedly through 2028. Meanwhile, he’ll receive the remaining $50 million in the form of a signing bonus over the life of the contract.

  40. wow if he goes down hill no one will touch that contract. I am guessing the reason behind the 15 million is they need to sign other players like harper. who will get big dollar I would imagine. plus there shortstop. don’t know about other pitchers. I didn’t realize they had that kind of money,

    1. Technically….could be classified as a 14-year contract….2015 thru 2028
      Pretty creative on the Nats part.
      AAV may only be averaging half of $30M

  41. I Was listening to Jim Salisbury. He said the cubs never offered anything of value for Hamels. I watch yesterday a team in t he cubs who have some really good talent. todays starter is really good. lester is really good. How can they not want to add a hamels and pap. to that team. Two experience guys who can help them win it all. I just don’t get it. I am sure the Phillies will pay at least 8 million of paps remaining money. With lester. arrieta. and hamels in that rotation plus paps as a closer. with there offense. they match up with almost all the teams. The other thing is adding those two is a two year commitment on paps and 4 on hamels that is a shot at the world series for the next two and maybe 4 years. yet they wouldnt give you anything of value. amazing.

    1. rocco…..not happening with Cubs nor Red Sox….Epstein/Hoyer/Cherington….all worked together in Boston at one time….they hoard prospects as gold…they offer little in return. Thats their mantra. Why waste valuable time
      Agree with Jim Salisbury.
      Better to work a deal with Dodgers/Rangers or Yankees.

    2. rocco…..young and talent wise, positional players on their 25, …the Cubs have Bryant, Soler, Schwarber, Rizzo and maybe Russell.
      Up to Epstein and Hoyer…..all untouchables.
      I do not think Castro or Baez are worthy exchange in a Hamels deal.

  42. Romus you right. But if I was a cub fan, I would be pissed. cause they have a real chance and those two would give them a greater chance to win.

    1. The Dodgers could be a good fit both ways.
      The team of Gillick/Amamro/MacPhail , IMHO, should only go for two prospects from the Dodgers….Seager and one of two, DeLeon or Chris Anderson, pitchers.
      The Dodgers may budge.
      Other prospects can be obtained in Paps, and Revere trades this week, and maybe an Utlley waiver-trade in August.

      1. I doubt they would trade away Seager but I also don’t think a deal hinges on his inclusion. That applies equally to Urias. Dodgers have some intriguing 2nd tier prospects. Jose De Leon, Grant Holmes, Austin Barnes, Alex Verdugo and Zach Lee. Get it done.

  43. Paps to the Nats?
    Interesting to see what Rizzo will offer….possibly former TJ pitcher Erick Fedde or one-time Padre prospect Joe Ross?
    Can be certain Giolito will not be offered.

  44. Pap has veto rights and Nats would have to move Storen to 8th. I don’t think that is a believable scenario. I still think Blue Jays, and after yesterday, the Cubs. They have no closer, and even if they don’t get Hamels, they are in the WC hunt, right there with the Giants. They are a perfect match for Pap. I have no idea what he is worth, how much $ paid by Phils get what kind of prospect? But, I think Cubs really want to make the playoffs, and Pap would help them a lot.

    1. ha……Cole and run support.
      Cole has 294 GS….and 75 he has gone to the 6th or later innings, with him only allowing only 2 or less runs allowed, and getting a no-decision or loss.

  45. Agree that Cole Hamels proved the doubters wrong today and strengthened his trade value. If the Cubs and Red Sox miss the playoffs then their fans should be asking really tough questions of their Front Offices..

  46. I had to go out to dinner so I recorded the game wow great game cole , cooch , Herrera last yr he was in AA he just caught the last out of major league no hitter. It’s weird how other teams are low balling the phillies . Now the Rangers are no Gallo, Marrza The yanks say no Judge or bird. OK so now LA , SF , Houston I don’t think SF has the prospects to do the trade . I’m now watching the open ceremonies of the Special Olympics thinking what a great sports day.

    1. I suppose Mazara would headline any deal to the Rangers. I’d be fine with him as a headliner. I don’t know so much about Alfaro … he’s got power but doesn’t seem to have a great approach, kind of like a slightly better version of Valle.

      Could Nick Williams be included in a package? Jake Thompson maybe?

      1. I read some twitters on the offer. they would love to give us Alfaro. but not Thompson or Williams or mazara. right now its Alfaro a catcher and two other lower prospects from the little I can find out.

        1. If they sign off on an injured catching prospect with a 4.3/29.5 BB/K rate in 200+ AA PA this season as the headliner in a Hamels deal, I’m out. I’m not a huge Mazara fan, but I recognize that he has to be part of any trade.

          I mean, if you’re going to trade for damaged Rangers goods, why not make it Profar?

            1. Dude’s 22. I’m sure there’s projection there, but the splits should be better — even from a catcher — if he’s going to be the main piece in a deal for Hamels.

  47. Mike I would say that 80 percent of the fans say let Alfaro go. I Don’t know the exact reason but they don’t like him. I heard he is hurt a lot. I don’t know if that is true.

    1. Believe it or not …Gab Lino may seem to have the same potential as Alfaro. Plus Alfaro keeps gaining weight that could be an issue with his injuries.

  48. I like wiiliams and then I don’t know gallo is a stikeout machine. Thompson isn’t showing that much. Mazara maybe. but the reds are getting two former first round picks plus someone else for a rental. I been looking at rangers prospects. so far, Williams looks like he could really help. but then I am stumped.

    1. 1:15pm: Executives from teams interested in pitching have not received word from the Reds that Cueto is still available, sources tell Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (on Twitter).

        1. ‘baseline for a Hamels deal’….you would think, but being Cueto is a rental, and two years younger, these things have to factor in..

            1. That is interesting. It looks like the Reds get back 2 guys that will be on the Opening Day roster next season.

              As for Hamels, you can spend more in FA this offseason with a longer term or get Hamels cost controlled contract for a shorter term.

  49. Still hearing Texas the most likely at this stage, though that could surely change. I still like the Dodgers and Cubs more in terms of prospects though. Both clubs could offer multiple package of 3 or more names in return for Hamels that would leave me very happy.

    1. I like the Dodgers.
      Hoyer and Epstein, along with their former co-worker, Ben Cherington (Red Sox), do not want to give up future assets.
      Their strong based analytical leanings govern their actions.
      Ruben on the other hand, did it a few times between ’09 and ’12.

    2. I would not count out Brian Cashman and the Yankees……he could let Judge go, if the Philles settle for Gary Sanchez and LHP Ian Clarkin ilo of Luis Severino and G. Bird.

      1. I liked Clarkin coming into the season but I don’t think he’s throw a pitch in 2015. I can’t recall his injury; not career threatening but obviously season threatening. Still, I see challenges dealing with the Yankees if one of Severino or Judge aren’t part of the return. Bird and Sanchez isn’t enough

  50. Funny last night mlb trade said no Marrza per Rangers. Is Revere hurt cause he should be starting you have to show your trade chips. Ultey will Be back and playing per the manager the Angels are looking at him for a late August trade. Which always gets me how do you know where in the standing then.

  51. Hard to believe, but Pedro Martinez is only the second Dominican-born baseball player voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame….Juan Marichal being the first ….way back when.
    Of all the great talented DR players….and only two in the Hall!

    1. And only Luis Apracio as the lone Venezuelan in the hall of Fame…..Miggy will be the next.

  52. Stark is reporting it is between LAD and TEX in the early discussions for Hamels. The Dodgers clearly aren’t parting with Seager, but it would be interesting if a bidding war could pry Urias loose …

  53. Right now its a chess match. They will go back and forth and see who makes the big move. Dodgers can say what they want, but they aren’t getting him without one of those two plus two more good prospects. the Phillies don’t have to move hamels. rangers want him the most long term at a good rate. dodgers want him for fear of losing greinke. but others can get in the mix. Toronto. is my darkhorse .Cubs will still be In the hunt/

  54. On the question of whether Hamel’s contract is a “bargain,” and, if so, how much of a bargain. There’s a lot of sloppy commenting about this around here, but the reality is, I think, quite clear:

    On the total value of the contract, compared to comparable FA starting pitchers, it is a bargain. But only and entirely because it is relatively short. Comparable FA starting pitchers will command significantly longer contracts.

    And that’s not nothing. The market leads to longer terms on FA starting pitcher contracts than most (all?) front offices would prefer.

    BUT on an AAV basis the contract is certainly no bargain (or not much of one). This is pretty much indisputable in terms of front office perception, which is all that matters. I think it’s also “objectively” true, though that’s at least somewhat a matter of opinion. But if you’re going to assert that the contract is a significant bargain on an AAV basis, it would be helpful to at least make an argument in favor of that assertion. I’ve seen no one try to do so. IMO it would be a tough argument to make.23.5 million per year is no bargain, or at least not a significant one. It’s not a BAD contract by any means, but not a real bargain.

    1. To be clear, he should command a good price in terms of prospects. But I expect that the deal, if it happens, will still disappoint numerous fans around here.

  55. Dodgers Holmes and De Leon plus hitter not to shore who. I like Phillip’s form Houston them and the Dodgers are deeper in prospects.

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