Box Score Recap – 5/27/2015

Sorry for the brief reports, but we were locked out of our third story apartment.  Got in too late, too tired to go into game details.

Lehigh Valley (18-29) lost to Gwinnett in suspended game, 8-2.  Lost the nightcap, 4-1.  Vasquez and Rodriguez took the losses.  Asche hit first AAA home run.   Phillippe Aumont (2-1, 1.64) pitches in game one, Berken pitches game two.

Reading (24-21) beat New Hampshire, 12-10.  Ogando got the win.

Clearwater (22-23)  lost in 10 innings, 6-5.  Mark Leiter (3-0, 1.30) and David Whitehead (2-6, 3.83) are expected to pitch on Thursday.  Brandon Leibrandt (5-2, 2.29) goes on Friday.

Lakewood (22-23) won in 11 innings against West Virginia Power, 7-6.

Williamsport (0-0) starts their season on the road against the State College Spikes on June 19th, home opener on June 20th.

GCL Phillies (0-0) starts their season across the bay against the GCL Yankees1 on June 22nd, second game at the Carpenter Complex on June 23rd.

DSL Phillies (0-0) begin their season on Saturday, May 30th.

VSL Phillies (6-3) beat the VSL Cubs, 2-1.

Here’s the affiliate scoreboard from MiLB.

Extra Innings –

  • RHP Shane Watson is reportedly going to pitch in XST Thursday, all pitches, 4 innings or 55 pitches.

46 thoughts on “Box Score Recap – 5/27/2015

  1. DSL starts on Saturday. Nice!!! another boxscore. It sure would be great to see Dugan playing ball again… even if it’s wiffle ball. The guy has to play. Eflin having a bad game is understandable. Playing in Northeast Delta Dental Stadium and all. No one likes to go to the dentist. It will be great to have Shane Watson back on the mound.

    1. For prospects their entire profile is SSS. Some statistics will stabilize to give a good view on what has happened, but their predictive value is still fairly low

  2. While the Carlos Tocci story feels good, I am afraid that it is a mirage. His gaudy hitting stats are entirely driven by an unsustainable BABIP, which is near .400. If you normalize Tocci’s BABIP to .300 then his batting average is only .261. His BABIP last year was .297.

    He really isnt hitting the ball harder this year. His ISO is very close to last year’s ISO and is only .09. His ISO last year was 0.081.

    I like that his stolen bases are much better this year but I remain concerned that his bat will play at upper levels.

    1. I am not as sold on Tocci as everyone else here (I believe I made my concerns clear a couple days ago in the Box Score Recap comments) but simply normalizing BABIP to .300 is a little flawed and the reason why scouting, and not just looking at stats, is important.

      Good minor league hitters almost always post BABIP’s much higher than .300, typically .350-.400. I’m not smart enough to be positive as to the reasons for this but the combination of worse pitching (thus it’s easier to hit the ball hard) and worse fielding (more balls drop in for hits) combine to equal higher BABIP’s especially at the lower levels.

      If Tocci’s BABIP is higher this year because he’s making consistently harder contact than his BABIP should continue to be high (though > .400 is hard to maintain at any level). If he isn’t hitting the ball any harder and his BABIP is fueled by a Galvis-esque ability to bloop the ball ‘where they ain’t’ than the batting average figures to drop much closer to his previous years numbers.

      1. Part of the rational on Carlos Tocci in the past, he was a ‘High Schooler’ playing against ‘college players’…the age gap theory.
        I guess now, you can say he is a freshman playing against juniors and seniors,
        I have to assume he will be promoted next month and will see how his hit skill plays out against better pitching and fielding…more then likely his BABIP will level down to the .300/310 mark.
        What concerns me even more is his ISO….it really doesn’t reflect much improvement…but then it goes back to his competitions older experienced skill level.

      2. There are two type of players that consistently produce a higher BABIP:
        1. Power hitters.
        2. Elite speed players – due to ability to get infield hits and bunt hits.

        Tocci is neither.

        To give you a benchmark, last year in Clearwater, JP Crawford had a BABIP of .292 with an ISO of .131. And Crawford walks a LOT more than Tocci, which means that he likely works counts more and gets better balls to hit.

        So, this means that Tocci’s BABIP is over 100 points higher than Crawford’s while his ISO is 40 points lower. Guys..Tocci’s BABIP isn’t sustainable.

        I saw Tocci in a game last weekend. I have seen him for 3 years. I honestly was disappointed in his physical development. His legs are still toothpicks. And upper body does not show much size increase. He certainly does not hit the ball harder than JP nor is he so much faster that he will have a dramatically higher OB%.

        If you want to believe that he magically can place the ball where they ain’t, then go for it.

        1. Always the Tocci detractor. It’s still an early and a small sample size, but the improvement is very positive. And although it seems like he’s been in the org for 10 years, his age cannot be overlooked. I was a string bean like him, and didn’t start putting on good weight until I was 22 (now I can’t get rid of the bad weight). If he’s still built like Earthworm Jim in 2 years then maybe we hit the panic button

          Metrics are very important, and while he very well could be due for a swoon, I’m excited about the fact that he has more realistic potential than any OF on the big club, and possibly in the entire org – aside from Quinn.

    2. These are all legitimate worries, but I don’t think his increased production this year is solely luck-driven (as the high BABIP concerns would suggest). He is hitting 25 percent more line drives this year compared to 2014 (20.5% vs. 16.1%). In 2013, his LD% was an ungodly 13.4. He is driving the ball much better, whether due to approach, pitch recognition, increased strength or a combination of the these.

      The glass-half-full take is that as he adds strength, he will continue his progress with making contact and driving the ball, hitting to the gaps and using his speed for extra bases.

      http://minorleaguecentral.com/player?pid=624636

      1. I’ve always hedged on Tocci I just thought he was too young to rank in the top 10 but now I don’t care what the BABIP says. He’s shown me enough thus far to say by seasons end even if the numbers come down that he deserves that distinction now.

        I have some real embarrASSments in my top 20 right now. Unless a couple guys really come on strong I’m looking at you Cozens, Green and Brown I will have a big shift in my June30 top 20.

        1. Agree DMAR….Cozens, Green and Brown are all really having a difficult time of it.
          Cozens I expected more from at this point of the season at CLW. After a pretty decent ABL winter campaign I thought he was really ready to come on the scene.

    3. Here are two 19-year-olds playing in Lakewood, both playing premium defensive positions:

      (1) Player A:
      Games: 60
      PAs: 268
      BABIP: .337
      Line Drive %: 14.7%
      ISO: .106
      K rate: 14.2%
      BB rate: 13.8%
      SB: 14
      SB rate: 66.7%

      (2) Player B:
      Games: 42
      PAs: 184
      BABIP: .379
      Line Drive %: 20.5%
      ISO: .096
      K rate: 11.4%
      BB rate: 7.1%
      SB: 11
      SB rate: 91.7%

      Player A is now the no. 4 prospect in all of baseball (per Keith Law’s recent update). Player B is Tocci this year. Maybe his BABIP is a little unsustainable, but it’s more reasonable to normalize it around .330 or .340 (given his improved line drive rate). Anyway, I’m not arguing that Tocci is on a Crawford path — few are — but I am arguing that his 2015 season is being under-weighted (hah!) solely because of his struggles as a 17- and 18-year-old in Lakewood

        1. I used data from minor league central: http://minorleaguecentral.com/player?pid=624636

          Ground ball rate is 45.2%

          My point is: Tocci’s 2015 gets looked at differently based on his 2013 and 2014. If you have a high school junior in the Sally, what do you expect? So what if he hit .209 in 2013? Looked at another way: if Tocci were American, and he graduated high school in 2014, and the following year he was putting up the numbers at Lakewood that he is putting up, people would be over the moon about him. Even if you normalize his BABIP and take his batting average down to the .280 range.

          Here’s another comparison: Nick Gordon was the 5th pick in the draft last year out of high school. He is a Top 100 prospect in all of baseball. He is the same age as Tocci (2 months difference in birth dates). Here are his numbers this year (in a different league but the same low A level): http://minorleaguecentral.com/player?pid=624503

          1. Bumping Nick Gordon;s current production up against Tocci’s does put things in a different perspective.

  3. Soon Nefi O. could be moved up to LHV, and a Sept call-up.
    Eflin-only one walk in 3IP-12 hits ouch….pitch to contact must have been the theme.

  4. I know this is beating a dead horse, but when does Hoskins get the promotion? And does everyone else on here feel that Reading should be the landing spot instead of with the Threshers?

    1. ….with Art Charles going to LV to see if there’s a glimmer of chance he hits and is not the next Matt Rizzotti….Matt Rizzotti hahaha

      1. Charles has already begun proving it at Reading… I am amazed at Stassi, I looked at his career stats and he has never done anything close to this at ANY level. Maybe HE is the next Matt Rizzotti…

    2. After the June draft, I guess. If Zach Green’s injury wasn’t enough to promote him, I don’t know what it would take. Astudillo/Stankiewicz is not the best defensive platoon at first. And this shouldn’t be a concern but maybe it is, who plays first for Lakewood then? There is no one in XST to send up.

    1. And where’s Sandusky been? Walding’s the best .200 hitter ever seen… at least in his/her eyes.

      1. Walding was given a green light on a 3-0 pitch. Pop up. It was a shame. It ruined a nice small ball sequence. Astudillo line drive single to right. Brown beautiful drag bunt to second for an infield hit. Mora lays down an equally beautiful sacrifice that he deadens on the line and is only thrown out by a perfect pickup and throw. And then the 3-0 pop up by Walding. He was also charged an error for a dropped pop up in front of the stands in foul territory in the second inning. The only negative result was that it added about 6 pitches to Arano’s pitch count. I thought it a little harsh. He had his back to the play, was making an over-the-shoulder, back hand attempt while “feeling” for the stands. The broadcast team was also surprised by the decision.

  5. As well as Mora and Astudillo have been hittiing, they are a liability on the field. The Miracle’s 10th inning rally was fueled by three two-out plays that they failed to make. (Ulises Joaquin had retired the first two batters on a K and an F8.)

    The first was ground ball to first baseman Astudillo’s right. He lost his footing making the stop while moving to his right. Then threw poorly from his knees to Joaquin covering first who crumbled to the ground reaching back for the low throw behind him. (The boxscore incorrectly describes this as a single to Mora.)

    The second WAS a single to Mora. He had to move to his left to field the ball. He got there and gloved the ball on his forehand (the ball was centered to his body) and dropped it, quickly picked it up, and fired wildly to first, allowing both runners to move up a base.

    The third was a hard hit single to Astudillo that appeared to go through him into right field and drove in two runs.

    Now these were by no means easy plays, and they would have been toward the difficult side of the routine range. But they were all plays that could/should have been made by competent fielders. (There was only one error charged on the above sequence, Mora’s throw. The Threshers committed 5 in the game, so there is plenty of blame to go around.)

    1. JimP…what do you think of Arano?….he is young for the league and will probably repeat, to start at least there next season I assume.
      Some people really like him.

      1. I spoke with one of the Phillies’ international guys over at the Complex this week. I had met him during one of the Threshers’ games earlier in the season. He asked me what I thought of Arano. I told him that he looks good in the first couple innings, but that second time through he seems to get hit harder. The Phillies guy said that seems to fit his profile. Arano was used as a reliever in Mexico and prefers that role. But that the Phillies thought he had the stuff to become a starter. It was interesting that my observation matched their internal report. (At least we thought so. We joked about it.) Arano seems to have the stuff to be a starter, 55 of his 88 pitches were 90 or above. He was 91-94, T95.

        He seemed to throw a lot of first-pitch balls (9 of 21). And seemed to pitch from behind a lot. Which is odd, because he bunches his balls. Four of 7 balls came during a walk in the first. The he threw 2 ball the entire second inning, Nine in a 25-pitch third, 3 balls to the first batter (HBP) and 4 to the 4th batter during an 11-pitch AB. Four balls in the fourth, all to the same batter. And then a first-pitch ball to all 4 batters in the fifth.

        He has swing and miss stuff. Two of his 3 Ks were on 94 mph heaters. The third was on an 81 mph off-speed pitch. It’s not that his velocity drops off after one time through the line up. He was still hitting 93-94 through the fifth inning. But his ERA after the second inning going into the game was something like 7.00 in the third, 7.00 in the 4th, 14.00 in the 5th, 19.00 in the sixth.

        He pitched better tonight. Just that one blip in the third – HBP-3B-SF. I had him at 60 strikes in 88 pitches, yet the 3 walks and hit batter … If he improves his command and control …

    2. I am very curious re: Astudillo. I have never seen him and he seems like he could hit 400 in the bigs right now – granted, all singles. I have a mental picture of him looking like the Panda with a similar hit tool. What pray tell, is going to happen with this player in your opinion ? DH, catcher, 1 B ?????

  6. The Threshers were the victims of bad luck and bad decisions in the late innings.

    With the score 4-1, Knapp led off the 8th with a single. Cozens followed with a smash up-the-middle that would surely have been a hit, but the ball hit the pitcher’s foot (I thought the rubber) and bounced high into the air, the third baseman timed his approach, plucked the ball out of the air bare-handed, and fired in one motion to just nab Cozens at first on a close play. Astudillo then hit another hard hit ball up-the-middle that the pitcher stabbed at and caught to hold Knapp at second and retire Astudillo at first. Brown followed with a double and Mora with a single. The inning ended 4-3, but could have been better with a little luck.

    Chase Harris led off the 9th with a single. He was caught stealing (for only the second time) with Crawford batting. J.P. completed his AB with a walk and Pullin also walked. Knapp’s double only tied the game, and Cozens was intentionally walked to get to Astudillo who struck out swinging. Sending Harris (who was 9 for 10) may not have been a bad decision, but close plays on steals ALWAYS go to the defense in the FSL. A pullin walk and an Astudillo are rare enough, but in the same inning?

    Mora reached on an infield single to start the 10th. He advanced to second on a wild throw by the SS, and to third on a wild throw by the first baseman. Neither of these throws went far enough to warrant moving up an extra base when your team trails by TWO runs. A good throw would have had him at either base. Once he made second, he should have stayed put. The decision to go to third was risky. The ball and tag looked like they both actually beat him. If the fielder had been able to hold onto the ball …

    1. He’s three years older than Grullon, so it wouldn’t really be a surprise if he’s more polished right now.

      1. True, although Fisher just came off his first year as a rookie, but then college ball does do a pretty good job of polishing.

  7. Can we just do an entire article on Brock Stassi, leads entire league in RBI’s and the team in home runs and plays gold glove defense

      1. like I said, leads the league with 37 rbi’s and plays good glove defense also batting a very high .345 aver unreal

        1. If you take a close look at his stats he struggled in A+ and AA the first year and then took a big jump when he repeated.

          If he was 21 I would get more excited but at his age he has to be make his jump now.

  8. Just a little info on Casimiro’s outing in Lakewood yesterday. He threw 76 pitches in 6 innings, 50 strikes and 26 balls. I didn’t keep track of swing and misses but he didn’t have many, 5 at the most. As for pitch speed, he was sitting at 86-89 touching 91 once according to the scout’s gun who was sitting in front of me. The stadium had him at 1 to 2 mph faster so you can decide which to believe, I lean toward the scout. I believe he was effective because he had good movement on his fastball. He was also throwing a curveball in the upper 70’s but wasn’t able to throw it for strikes on a consistent basis. He was also throwing a pitch in the 82-83 range which was either a change-up or a slider that he got outs with also. Only other observation would be that even though I like Canelo’s offense, today his throws were a little short, hopefully it was just a one day thing. There is lots of video at : https://www.youtube.com/user/TheGkita

  9. Baseball America has Malquin Canelo on their Helium List for this week and hopefully he will continue to do well.

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