Open Discussion: Week of March 2nd

Weekly Discussion

Grapefruit League games start Tuesday against the New York Yankees.  The afternoon game is going to be shown as a replay on MLB that night.

I’m a little tired of the Cole Hamels discussion.  Let’s try this.

The Phillies 40-man roster includes 8 outfielders – Aaron Altherr, Domonic Brown, Jordan Danks, Kelly Dugan, Odubel Herrera, Ben Revere, Darin Ruf, and Grady Sizemore.  Non-roster invitee outfielders include Jeff Francoeur, Brian Bogusevic, Darin Mastroianni, and Xavier Paul.

So far, Darin Ruf has been working out with the infielders, so today he gets the start in left.  Odubel Herrera has been practicing in left field with coach Juan Samuel shadowing and mentoring him, so today he starts in center field.

The Phillies have 4 right-handed hitting outfielders in camp – Francoeur, Ruf, Mastroianni, and Altherr.

So, who makes your 25-man roster if you take 5 north, 6 if you leave your 5th starter in Lehigh Valley until mid-April?

I would guess that left-handed hitting Revere, Brown, and Sizemore are safe bets to make the roster.  I have seen nothing that leads me to believe left-handed hitting, Rule 5 selection Herrera won’t make it.  I think Ruf has another option and will start the season in Lehigh Valley or be the 6th outfielder.  Danks may be the best defensive outfielder among the group, but ultimately I think the 5th spot goes to Jeff Francoeur.  His right-handedness certainly helps.  His years of ML experience will probably be enough to swing the scale in his favor.  And he seems to be a good “team” guy.  That has to help.  Plus, he’s another potential flip.

Have a go at this or anything else that interests you.  The Reader Top 30 has been updated on the pull-down menu.

161 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of March 2nd”

  1. anyone else seeing a strong season from howard? have a feeling him, cole, and cliff are gonna give us a haul at the deadline

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    2. A strong season from Howard? Based on a “feeling”? And what, pray tell, would that feeling be based on? It sure can’t be objective evidence.

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    3. If you’ve been reading Jim’s reports, it sounds like he’s had trouble catching up to BP fastballs. That doesn’t sound so promising.

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    4. Even if Howard is somewhat improved this season, he is a very difficult trade — you will have to send a ton of $ with him and will get probably just a fringy prospect in return. Lee also unlikely to return a big haul, I’d guess a good prospect and a fringe prospect and we also send $. Hamels should give a good return.

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  2. I always want Ryan Howard to succeed. He is a fine human being and will go down as one of the greatest Phillies. He is in better shape than he has been in three years. He will not hit LOOGYS well. He is a liability in the field. He needs a strong team around him that will help him play a limited role (DH) well. That will not happen with the Phillies this year. In the meantime his presence will affect both Ruf and Franco negatively, through no fault of his own. How frustrating!

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    1. I would platoon Ruf/Howard every other game. I think it would be interesting to see their combined numbers plus they would have Howard as a possible pinch hitter for half the games which he is very good at.

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  3. I think they will take Ruf, Francoeur, and Herrera north – Ruf for the bat, Herrera for the hits and speed, and Francoeur for the experience, the arm, and the right-handed bat. I may change my mind if I see the other non-roster invitees do some good things. A couple of years ago Darin Mastroianni lit up Winter ball. I wonder what kind of fielder he is.

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    1. Based on his fielding stats, both Major and Minor leagues, he’s acceptable. He can play all 3 OF positions and 2B. Interesting skill set. It doesn’t look like he’ll hurt you defensively. As an overall baseball player, he looks like a good 4A guy. He can be called up in a punch and he’ll help a AAA team to amass some wins. If you don’t care about wins in the minors then he’s a guy with a bat behind a plate glass window. On the window it says, “In case of emergency, break glass.”

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  4. Revere , Brown , Sizemore, Francoeur, Herrera. We need Revere what going to have Herrera batting leadoff with Galvis second .Ruff caught in no man’s land he a good player but really no postion.

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  5. Have to give credit to Ruben on this. Over the last eight/nine months, he has brought in some young arms with potential.

    1. Arano-RHP
    2. Eflin-RHP
    3. Windle-LHP
    4. Lively-RHP
    5. Joely Rodriguez-LHP
    6.. Aruajo-LHP
    7. Oliver-LHP
    Then there are draftees like Nola-RHP and Imhof-LHP
    Looks promising.

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    1. That is true. Still woefully short on everyday players, however. The Pitchers give us something to watch.

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  6. Romus does this mean your buying back the tickets you sold? I hope they at least are completive this year. Baseball is such a long season and if they are as bad as we think, it wont be fun season,

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    1. Ha……rocco, will still go down there, but no, will not get them back.
      In two or three years, pitching could be very good in Philly.
      Biddle is showing a lot so far, and if Morgan, Pettibone and Watson come around …then there are plenty of arms.
      With youth comes excitement.

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      1. I really like Morgan if he is healthy, pettibone I am not sure of, Watson is the wild card, if he is healthy could really help.

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  7. Jeff Francoeur is awful and yet I’m almost positive he makes the roster. I’d also bet that at some point Brown is going to struggle and we’ll go with a Sizemore/Revere/Francoeur outfield, which is about as hopeless as it gets for a team that’s rebuilding. The five OFs are probably Herrera, Brown, Revere, Francoeur, and Sizemore.

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  8. Hey, let’s worry about 2nd base! Raise your hand if you are just a tiny bit skeptical that a sprained ankle caused by stepping on a baseball in January would leave Utley unable to be on the field in March. I’m starting to feel like I’ve seen this movie before.

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    1. We’ve seen this movie twice. Both times when he was younger, but I had forgotten because he had a couple healthy years.

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    3. I’m in full tank mode at this point, so I’m not in the least worried about second base. A hurt Utley is good for the future since we weren’t trading him anyway.

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      1. That said, he’s the best 2B in Phillies history, and it has been a pleasure to watch him play.

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      2. I’m rooting for two or three productive years from Utley with perhaps one year close to an all-star level; if he can do that he’s got a real shot to go to the HOF.

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        1. I can certainly appreciate that aspect of this discussion. Him being relatively productive these last two years has boosted his odds at the HOF, but he really needs another two years with him playing 140 games a year to have a real shot. It’s certainly close though, especially given the position he occupies.

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        2. Last season, I compared Utley’s career against another HOF second baseman, Ryne Sandberg. My intention was to gather the information from the comp that would put the Utley HOF campaign to rest. I was surprised how favorably Utley compares to Sandberg.

          Now, Sandberg’s stats are certainly higher since he played 16 seasons and only lost appreciable time in his first season, 6 AB call-up with the Phillies and the strike-shortened 1994 season. Utley’s 12 seasons include his late season call-up in 2003 that derailed any ROY aspirations, plus 2-3 injury plagued seasons. However, he has played the required 10 seasons for consideration for the HOF.

          Utley’s 162 game averages in BR compare very favorably with Sandberg’s. He also has a better lifetime OPS+ (125 to 114). HIs 61.5 WAR lags behind Sandberg’s 67.5, but he has played 4 less seasons.

          According to JAWS, the average of the 19 HOF second baseman is a 69.4 career WAR with a 44.5 7-year peak WAR, and a 57.0 JAWS. Utley would rank 12th with his 61.5 career WAR, 49.1 7-year peak WAR, and a 55.3 JAWS.

          Sandberg has a slew of GG, an MVP, and led the league in HRs once. Utley has played in the post season, has a WS ring, and 7 WS HRs.

          He might have a shot now, but Supra is right, 2 more seasons and another 250-280 games with decent production and he only helps his case for the HOF. Sandberg received votes on 76.2% of the ballots his third year of eligibility. He received 49.2 his first year on the ballot.

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      3. In some strange ‘Sam Hinkie way’, that is what should be the general feeling among the faithful.
        This year the Phillies stand to get a quality draftee in June and if the end result of 2015’s season come to fruition, the Phillies should get the top or 2nd pick in 2016.
        Add returns on Paps, Cole, Cliff Lee and/or maybe Chooch…then there should be a very good basis for the future.

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        1. And I get called a bandwagon jumper (off not on) for not following the MLB team (but instead focusing on the minor league system) until they actually have a future.

          Right now things are pretty aimless. There’s not a single player on the big league roster that fits the following two criteria:

          1. Top 5 player at there position type of talent (say top 25 for pitchers)
          AND
          2. will still be when we next contend (5 years best case).

          Add to that the following, all of which describe the organization.

          1. Bottom third in Minor League talent.
          2. Worst major league talent in NL and maybe MLB.
          3. Worst in analytics department/understanding in all of professional sports.
          4. An ownership group with an intellectual disability.

          There’s just not a lot to root for except legacy items (Chase Utley HOF resume) and a super high draft pick.

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          1. It could be worse. But you’re right our hopes are pinned to the minors.

            1. Even with the system we have, we could potentially have 2 top 5 position players in Franco and Crawford, who presumably would contribute in 5 years.

            2. If we’re resigned to losing now, this shouldn’t matter much.

            3. They’re investing in analytics; it’s not too little too late either.

            4. I don’t know if I have an opinion on that.

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            1. I’m not sure how much worse it could be, baring MLB allowing the trading of draft picks and the Phillies not having any…

              As to 1. I definitely agree about Crawford, but I don’t think Franco has a *realistic chance to be a top 5 3B. Though I think he’ll make for a nice above average 3B.

              2. Oh I agree, I just don’t think the fandom does. Given the focus on things like “who’s going to play what position for the Phillies” or “Oh No Chase is Injured!” type of comments, I think a fair portion of Phillies fans are NOT resigned to securing the best draft picks.

              3. It sort of is too little too late. A significant investment in analytics could have prevented a horrible investment in Ryan Howard and improved the return on trades as we would have traded our aging stars sooner (as in when they were more valuable). Whereas now, we’re left with really only 1 valuable asset (Hamels) and will be forced into waiting half a decade for any hope. That said, since we are where we are, I agree that there’s nothing to be upset about that they’re doing some of this now. I just don’t think they’re fully embracing it yet due to the GM we have in place and ownership control.

              4. I don’t mean to say all ownership, just controlling ownership. As in, Ownership is who appointed David Montgomery, ownership is who approved hiring Ruben Amaro, ownership is keeping these fossils of a time long forgotten. Even Pat Gillick who assembled our second championship in our century long history is a remnant of the past. I’d like nothing more then to have new ownership (be it John Middleton or a 3rd party) with a discerning eye for talent and a real plan to hire a GM who puts long term goals ahead of short ones and truly understands the role of scouting and analytics in player development and projection.

              To add to the last point, I once read a basketball related article describing how when evaluating NBA draft prospects, scouting alone often resulted in a poor result, analytics alone a poor result, but combined provided a far superior result. This is the gist of why I think our ownership is mentally challenged. They’ve completely ignored half the data points available to all teams when evaluating existing players, player potential, and amateur talent.

              How is it that “we’re paying him 25 million so he has to start full time” a viable excuse for not benching or platooning a player?

              How is it that we hire a GM who clearly doesn’t even understand the concept of OBP let alone the value of a walk? See – “Yeah, we were checking it out. In fact Schmitty was in the booth yesterday when we were talking about it, and, um, I think it’s about a thousand difference in, ah, plate appearances. Pretty amazing. But their batting averages aren’t that different, which is kind of… weird. I don’t quite understand it.”

              Ok I can’t even begin to enumerate how defunct this franchise is at the top. I’m beyond frustrated, I loathe them. They ruined the only baseball team I care about and my only reason for being a fan of the sport at all. And they did all that over the course of the last few years when they took a team that in all honesty, they lucked into, and turned it into a mess through inaction, poor action, and general mismanagement.

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            2. I know man. But the bright side is that things are changing. They are realizing that they’ve been doing things wrong and are taking a lot of positive steps now.

              We have to hope that those differences are permanent, not just isolated incidents of lucky decision making, but they do seem to be going in the right direction.

              Things could definitely be worse if they started trying to buy their way out with more Howard/Papelbon style FA contracts. Which they may have done a couple years ago if things hadn’t changed.

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  9. I think you’re all forgetting Cesar Hernandez who I think is making this team. If he or Herrera can’t be an adequate back up at SS, another player (Blanco) will have to make the team over a 5th OF. That will be something to watch. Utley not playing in the 1st spring training game is far from a story. He hurt his ankle, if he’s still not playing in two weeks, it will be a story. He doesn’t really need all that much game time to get ready anyway.

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  10. Matt Winks over on ‘Phillies Minor Thoughts’ has the latest word on the LA player the Phillies may target come July 2, 2015 as told by Kiley McDaniel.

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    1. I was just about to ask about him. Please tell me the 260 is a typo . . . That would be one big boy and at 6’2 an overweight boy . . . Mo Vaughn Jr? However he was only listed at 6’1 225 (much heavier then that) btw I never realized how good of an average hitter he was . . .292 career BA with several seasons above .300. God I love baseball-reference.com

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  12. Just read that he will be at the 4 mil range . That’s right phillies will put out 4 mil and be 1 of the teams spending after after b July 2. Yep wow ?!&: *=&/&/& . Phillies are spending money on international players.

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  14. I know it might be alittle early to talk about individual players in the 2015 draft but I was reading about this kid named Ian Happ from Cinn. Would he be a good fit for the phils at #10 or is that too early for him.

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  15. I guess Larry Greene Jr., has made me vary wary of prospects with huge raw power and power approach and pitch recognition. $4.2+ million is a lot of money. I know we all want the Phillies to blow past their alottment. We are all tired of the “we aren’t going g to sign X because we are really interested in Y.” However I would hate to blow our load on Ortiz, who seems to be a lot like other guys in our system (Cozens, Encarnacion, Pujos) and then not have the money to sign someone like Kevin Maitan who has more than just one tool.

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    1. * very not vary and *poor approach and pitch recognition not power approach and pitch recognition.

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    2. The two LAs to get are OFer Vlad Guerrera’s son, by the same name, and CF Starling Heredia….but other teams seem to be already have them in their pocket.
      The Inter draft can’t come to soon, though now the MLBPA are starting their rhetoric again about it being unfair.

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      1. I am not holding my breath on a draft any time soon. I think planning one’s moves based on the assumption that their will be an international draft in a year or two would be foolish.

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        1. That is precisely the predications being made by the pundits.
          That the Phillies will overspend now , since once the draft is most likely in place after the next CBA, it all becomes academic and slotted monies are then set in stone.
          So the overspend now is what those teams, who are not penalized, and who can afford to do it, are going to start the process.
          They are doing and planning in anticipation of the draft.

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  17. Charley Kerfeld is at the red Sox camp scouting. Isn’t he the guy that thought Delmon Young was a great pick up? Trying to get the conversation away from our former poster who shall not be named.

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  18. While I was initially swept up in the Odubel Herrerra enthusiasm, the more I think about it, the less I understand it. He’s a singles hitting, high-average, no power centerfielder. Don’t we already have one of those named Revere? And if you put him in leftfield, would we really want two of those guys in the lineup together?

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    1. You have a valid point.
      Herrera in CF would make sense, if Revere, who has value, is used as a trade chip.
      He is cost controlled for another year, great speed and BS ability, contact hitter with little power or OBP capability….but average to below average CFer.

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    3. Revere had a higher career OBP in the minors and walked at a pretty similar rate to Herrera, if not a slightly higher one. Hererra also had the same ISO in the minors last year as Carlos Tocci. I think Jarquin is right to be skeptical.

      Herrera will get his shot and we’ll see if he can translate what little power he has better than Revere can. It’s definitely not a sure thing.

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    1. Herrera then becomes a Ranger after a year or two.
      He actually becomes a Ranger again after 3/4 more weeks if he is not kept on the roster.
      Revere has the most value and is 4 years older and in 3/4 years may not be the player the Phillies will need to compete in the NL east, when they are expected to be competitive again.
      He now has the most trade value and I say cash that chip in, in this rebuild.

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      1. Herrera has better OBP skills than Revere, but I doubt he’ll be as good of a base stealer. I’d say if it’s a choice of one or the other, the decision should really come down to defense. We know Revere is below average, but as a converted infielder, can Herrera really be much better?

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      2. Herrera can learn on the phillies They don’t need to send him back. He could be the 5th Of or back up 2nd base too. Herrera doesn’t have to start from day 1 . Revere fine hitting 300 or over and stealing 50 bases a yr.plus Revere doesn’t walk he also doesn’t strike out either.

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    2. Revere really isn’t proven as all that much — poor defense and an empty batting average with no power and almost no walks. Also, Revere gets expensive several years before Herrera does. Maybe healthy in 2015 Revere can show the .350 OBP and better D that he needs to be an acceptable starter.

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      1. Revere hit 306 had 185 hits which was tried for first and 49 sb . He was one of the hardest hitters to strike out . This yr he’ll be healthy so maybe he’ll go for the batting title .

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        1. Striking out, especially for a leadoff hitter, is just another way of making an out. What counts is the guy’s OBP and SLG. Revere hardly walks at all, so even with the number of hits he gets, his OBP isn’t adequate for a guy with almost no power. The SBs are nice, but given his poor CF D, Revere really needs to put up a .350 OBP to count as a good starter.

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          1. Revere did say he will be bunting more this year for hits.I can only assume he realizes the BBs will not come , so he needs to find other ways to raise his OBP, plus make the corner infielders more aware and perhaps change their positioning when he bats. Will see how that works out.

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      2. People’s criticisms of Revere are understandable but overblown in my view. Last year, Ben Revere, who was barely able to walk around when he wasn’t playing, was a 2.8 WAR offensive player – a really good offensive player, although admittedly oddly limited. The big issue for Ben is his defense. He was a -1.8 WAR centefielder, which is terrible given his speed (his arm will always be bad). I’m hopeful that at least some of the underachieving was attributable to the extreme pain he was experiencing which I would think, probably made stopping and starting and changing direction awfully difficult. If he can go from that to being a 1 WAR outfielder, you are talking about a very valuable player even if he doesn’t improve further on offense and, frankly, I think he will improve. And it’s not like he’s never been a positive defensive player – he was very productive on defense for the Twins.

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        1. With all you mentioned, then Ben Revere in my estimation does have value and pructive skills, especially now in his age27 season. I am sure you agree.
          Will he still have that same value in his age29/30 season when the team is predicted to compete for the NL-East title?
          Whereas, Herrera is 4 years younger with the same skill set, but less experience and in 2/3 years will also be in his prime.
          IMO, as a risk, I may want to try to package Revere with a Paps,Cole or Cliff Lee as added value, and see what it brings in return and go with Herrera in CF for 1.5 years ….if it doesn’t work, then Roman Quinn steps in and tries it…if that doesn’t work Carlos Tocci steps in and tries it

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          1. Even if I’m wrong about Herrera, his skill set is not REMOTELY similar to Revere’s. Even in the (IMO) unlikely event that Herrera becomes a decent regular, the configuration of his skills will be quite different. He’ll (best case) make up for the lack of Revere’s two plus plus skills be being decent across the board, whereas Revere has significant deficits which arguably outweigh his strengths.

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            1. You are entitled to your opinion.
              I see the speed for BS similar, Herrera plus arm over Revere as a defensive skill set. I also see that historically middle infielders converted to OFers do well….Mantle coming to mind. I can find out more if I wanted to look
              Offensively, they both lack power, but their contact ability tool is similar.
              The one aspect of his game in the OF I am curious to see, is how he reacts to the batted ball in the air.
              But my premise all along is Revere’s value right now thru this years trade deadline, may be the highest it will ever be….and use it.

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            2. Romus, no disrespect, but while part of this is opinion, some of this isn’t opinion, but fact – facts that you are indisputably wrong about.

              Opinion – Herrera’s overall ceiling. I could be wrong on this. You could be right about Herrera’s defense, for example.

              Fact – Revere’s huge edge as a base runner and contact. This is not open to reasonable dispute. I left some numbers out of the last comment. Let’s do a chart – and remember, we are comparing MAJOR LEAGUE totals for Revere to MINOR LEAGUE totals for Herrera:

              K rate SB% SB/150 games
              Revere 9.1% 81% 44
              Herrera 16.2 72% 31

              Whatever one thinks about their relative likely ceilings – there is room for disagreement there – they do not have similar skill sets.

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            3. But LarryM….you would agree Revere’s value is high now, and if they are truly in the Gillick rebuild mode, why not try to get more back on his added value in a package deal. While Herrera can be the 1/2 year bridge until Quinn or Tocci come around., if they ever do.
              Revere has attractive attributes, especially in the financial arena. He is controlled until 2017 or 2018, and that could be a very attractive chip for small market teams.

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            4. See, that’s the thing – even though I’m not as down on Revere as some people around here are, no I don’t agree that his trade value is high. If I’m wrong, then by all means trade him.

              Yes, it may be higher now than in two years – but if that means the difference between (say) a marginal prospect now and minor league filler two years from now, I say keep him rather than insert a guy whose likely ceiling is a versatile bench piece. If we can get a good prospect for him, though, then it is a different story. I’d STILL be skeptical about giving Herrera the job, unless he adapts to CF extraordinarily well defensively AND contributes a little more offensively than I expect he will..

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        2. True.

          The other side of the equation is over optimism regarding Herrera, which IMO stems partly from the tendency to prefer the “new flavor,” partly from winter SSS performance, but mainly from the common error of projecting a high major league BA from a high minor league BA. The fact is that he strikes out too much to ever come close to duplicating his minor league BA. Comparing the two:

          (1) Base running – huge edge to Revere. His high SB totals combined with a high SB% makes him one of the rare players who produces significant value as a base runner.

          (2) Contact ability – huge edge to Revere, major league K rate of xx versus xx minor league rate for Herrera.

          (3) BB rate – maybe a small edge for Herrera, but, combined with #2, Revere on balance with better on base skills.

          (4) Power – probable small edge to Herrera.

          (5) Defense – who knows? Revere no prize but Herrera is new to the OF – this could easily be a wash.

          The best case scenario – not IMO a likely one – if Revere’s defense remains as bad as last year, and Herrera is decent defensively in CF, maybe the defensive edge and small advantages in BB rate and power make up for Revere’s huge edges in base running and contact ability. That’s the BEST case – that both players are second division regulars. But Revere (if his defense improves, and he HAS been better defensively in the past) could be more than that, and Herrera is unlikely to be even that.

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          1. One thing larry I know revere can fly. but so can this kid based on what I saw yesterday, but speed alone doesn’t make you a great stolen base guy. Revere does have the edge but I think this kid will steal some bases too.

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          3. Exactly Herrera is a good rule 5 not a super prospect. Herrera does have some skills . He moves a lot in batters box he also looked real quick on base . Revere is a player you want to keep if your bring up young players. His speed will help along with his character.

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  21. I cant believe that new kids Herrera’s stance. I cant remember someone approaching a pitcher with that stances. The kid does have some speed.

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    1. rocco…he does have some movement also, and although he starts way open, once the pitcher releases he begins to close up. There have been players in the past who had varied degrees of open-stances…Tigers had two guys Norm Cash and Dick McAuliffe if I recall.
      Whatever works.

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  22. Leaving this conversation on the minor leaguers, did you notice how good Joely looked yesterday? He obviously needs to improve his control but his arm action looked very good. Hollands looks to me like he’ll be at LHV to start the year.

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    1. Oliver or Elvis mayl give Hollands a run for his money this year as the other lefty in the pen aside of Diekman.
      You can tell Herrera is ahead everyone so far, playing winter ball can do that for you…..2 for 2 today with a walk vs the Yankees

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  24. anyone (else) following Phils vs. Yanks today? Herrera with several singles, three SBs, scored run. 1 hitter by various pitchers through 5 or 6 innings, Franco with an RBI single…. Galvis successfully, be still my heart, moved over a runner (Herrera) who scored.

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  25. Ouch….even with some grammatical shortcomings…. he is a gentle soul with an ardent and fervent zeal for the Phillies and their phuture phortune.

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  26. Anyone listen to Pat Gillick interview this morning?
    Made a lot of sense on almost all subjects , except one.
    When ask why the reluctance to get involved more heavily in the bidding for Cuban players lately, other then MAG two years ago, he said he could not get into it….but it is not about money or their talent level.
    What else could there be!

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    1. We went over this in detail last week but you must have missed the conversation that you started and replied to.

      In LA relationships are important and the Phillies intend on exceeding their international allotment come July 2nd. Therefore, in order to maintain those relationships and agreements they could not go in on the Cuban players to the extent that would affect said relationships and agreements.

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      1. Yes…..did not put two and two together.
        Remember now they are supposedly in on that 6’2′ 260 lb power bat from the DR for a $3 or 4M.

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  28. In a purely analytical world, that may make some sense. But, what have you seen, in the history of the Philadelphia Phillies, that would lead you to believe that a move like that would even be contemplated? They won’t pay $ for Cuban players without trading Hamels, now you suggest that they pay in excess of $100 Million to get some teams top prospects. Forget MLB approving it. No one connected to the Phillies would even entertain a thought like that. Why is $100 Million and Hamels for Betts AND Swihart a smarter move than Tomas and Castillo? It isn’t.

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  29. I don’t understand the debate, at all. Forget Major League Baseball. What, in the Phillies history has lead anyone to believe that paying $100Million and Hamels for Betts AND Swihart, would even be contemplated? Who, in their ownership group, would have such a thought? They won’t pay for Castillo or Tomas, and keep Hamels. And, why would spending the money for Castillo and Tomas not be smarter than the suggestion of that $ and Hamels to Boston? But, we are discussing the Phillies. And we can disagree over what moves they should make. But, we might as well propose buyers for the team to be sold to rather than suggesting they will pay 95% of Hamels salary to get prospects back.

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    1. We’re talking about game theory, but game theory ignores the fact that baseball is a business.

      Some teams hold the business aspect in higher regard than others, and prefer to limit spending. Other teams, like the Dodgers Yankees and Red Sox will sometimes ignore good business decisions in order to improve their teams. Sometimes that results in either more popularity for the team and more revenue, or it doesn’t.

      We as fans naturally prefer the pure game theory approach because we have no vested interest in the profits of the team, but only in the quality.

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      1. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers strike me as three of the most successful teams from a business standpoint. They certainly have huge franchise value and at least Dodgers and Yankees have humongous media revenue. Their approach seems to work.

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        1. And all each have some of the largest TV contracts/revenue in MLB…YESS for the Yankees and NESN (?) for the Sox and LAD new TV deal…..so funds are available.
          Next year the Phillies get their first installment of Comcast’s contract- $65M.

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        2. Please read “good business decisions” in quotes. I am quite jaded with the attempts by corporations around the country trying to cut costs rather than grow and become more profitable.

          I 100% agree.

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  31. Does anybody know what happened to Zach Collier? I recently saw a picture of him with a large surgical scar on his chest. Can’t find any info.

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    1. Scar is from his heart surgery he had when he was 16-years old. He had a birth defect that was detected when he was in high school.
      Phillies DFA last summer.

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  32. I enjoy reading the comments of all three of you when they are comments. Using derogatory statements about each other when you are trying to prove you are correct is not a fun read. If you can filter your responses before they are sent, I’ll continue to enjoy your interesting comments. Thanks for years of enjoyable entries and thanks if you choose to think before you press send. Otherwise it gets tedious.

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    1. The above comment was intended for Rei and Larry. I included Supra, but he seems to be in the middle of the unfortunate feud.

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  33. The Phillies put enough runners on base today to score at least seven runs. It is obvious they haven’t learned to hit with runners in scoring position. Mindlessness also plays a part: grooving fast balls down the middle as if it were batting practice and forgetting how to run the bases. Galvis had a nice sacrifice bunt to get runners in scoring position. Rupp with a double and a single helped.

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  34. Let me emphasize “they might be interesting or significant if teams valued players in purely monetary terms. But they don’t.” As I’ve said much more than once, TEAMS DON’T VALUE players that way. Oh, it enters into it (something the OTHER group of Hamels trade fantasists can’t accept), but YOUR BASIC model is flawed. You’re building a tower of argument on a bedding of sand. The arguments can be elegant and logical (well, they aren’t entirely, but for the sake of argument) – they are worthless because they are based on an incorrect assumption of how players are valued.

    As for buying and selling prospects – you’re being obtuse. Major league teams BUY prospects. They don’t SELL prospects. And if they tried to, the commissioner’s office would void the transaction

    And the comparison to Howard is so laughable that you can’t be serious. A trade in which most of Howard’s salary is paid by the Phillies is unlikely but possible BECAUSE HOWARD HAS VIRTUALLY NO VALUE. There is no way, under any circumstances, that major league baseball would approve the trade of a star player with the trading team paying mos tof his salary. None.

    Now, your other hypo – the team pays between 25 and 50% of his salary – is equally stupid. Boston wouldn’t do it, and the Phillies wouldn’t. So it’s moronic to even discuss it.

    The fact is, I was being unfair to flat earthers. The kind of weird magical thinking that you ascribe to is worse.

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    1. The ‘Stros were limited by monetary restrictions for a few years..
      Cubs, on the other hand, have the money, and now under Hoyer/Epstein seem to be headed in the right direction with their spending avoiding the likes of Alfonso Soriano contracts I would think.
      And prospect failure rates, that’s the risk that GMs try to minimize, since all know they are high

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  36. I cant believe how people can defend him. with there thumbs down. I read David murphy column on Phillies today. I wish I could understand what the hell he was trying to say.

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    1. Seems Murph is giving the fan base a warning on trading for prospects it would seem……backing up what you have been saying all along
      Trading Hamels for unproven prospects is risky and normally doesn’t work out 100% they way one wants.
      Ruben is working on hope and change, transforming the future of the Phillies….dang…we might be better with Obama as the GM! 🙂

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  37. Happy Friday Fellas! My morning musings.

    1. Has the site been abandoned? Where has Jimmy been I hope everything is good with him.

    2. Early indications are that Boston’s offense is going to be pretty darn good but that pitching staff is a house of cards if it’s going to rely on Buchholz, Masterson and Kelly.

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    1. Calling a regular commenter an idiot or a moron will get your comment deleted. If you feel that is censorship, go to a site that won’t delete those comments.

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      1. Thank you Jim. Our dialogue sets this site apart from the unthoughtful comments which one sees regularly on other sites. There is a great advantage to honest dialogue when we are civil with each other.

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  39. Who needs Betts when we have Herrera!

    Sarcasm aside Herrera looked good to start the spring. I was particularly intrigued with his hustle. I don’t think 3 SB is all that common in the first game of spring. We will probably be one of the worst teams in the league this year, but if we can at least field a team with young guys busting their tails I’d be happy with that.

    I would love to see Asche take a step forward this year. In 4 seasons in the minors he was a .290 hitter with a .348 obp. In 631 big league PA he has hit .248 with an obp of .302. I think he has a better hit tool than we have seen.

    According to fangraphs, .320 is roughly the average obp of an everyday player. A .340 is considered above average. I would love to see his bat improve so he could transition to LF.

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    1. very true David. but cuerto will get a 7 year 220 or better contract. I wouldn’t want to give anyone that much. But the nats set the market.

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  41. I know we have debated this for what seems like forever. Those who would be thrilled with an Addison Russell return today wanted 3 top prospects a year ago. I think LarryM has done a good job of explaining reality to us. That does not mean that as the season progresses, some team may decide Hamels gets his team deep into the playoffs, and overpays. I don’t believe that team is Boston. Some time ago, one of the posters on this site speculated as to what a future lineup/Rotation would look like. Very bleak. Even with Franco, Crawford and Quinn penciled in as every day players, there are a lot of holes. And all 3 reaching their ceilings is a big IF. Gillick’s 2017-2018 seems like wishful thinking at this point.

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  42. Joe Jordan quote from yesterday:…IMO, says it all about the cash outlay for amateur acquisition.
    “Jordan is also excited about last year’s July 2 international signings, a group that included three Venezuelans – shortstops Daniel Brito and Arquimedes Gamboa and catcher Lenin Rodriguez. We are at least a couple years away from finding out whether that optimism is justified. All we know for sure right now is that the $1.85 million the Phillies spent on those international players is considerably less than the $135 million the Boston Red Sox spent on Cubans Rusney Castillo and Yoan Moncada”

    ………..Castillo and Moncada, if pundits are correct, will be in the lineup as impact players in Boston within two/three years, ETA for the Phillies 2014 LA signees, at best 2020.

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    1. Romus is 1.85 under there budject?? second I will wait on cuerto. his numbers last year were great. I still believe the nats set the market. Cuerto is going to get more than 25 million a year. We will see who is right.

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      1. rocco….they paid a bit more then $1.85M last year, since they signed others at lower bonus numbers…..do not think they reached their ceiling allocation however…par for the course I would suspect.
        I am curious if this year they spend like the experts claim they will come July 2nd.
        J Ortiz will alone command $2.5/3M, which would make him the highest player they ever spent that high on before in the LA market as for 16-year olds, MAG was a whole different apple.
        As for Cueto……he may get $25M AAV…..do not think he will $26M or more AAV.
        I still say under $25M however.

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  43. Does anyone know?
    When the Cubans sign those large bonus’…does any of the money/percent go back into the Cuban govt?

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    1. I do not “know”, but I can provide a variety of possibilities.
      1.) No. The player is defecting and the Cuban government would have no legal claim to any of the players’ salary.
      2.) Yes. It sure seems suspicious to me that a country that is able to keep a large population on an island, can’t prevent baseball players from “escaping” on a regular basis. A little colusion, nudge, nudge, wink, wink, pay me later would not surprise me.
      3.) Maybe. Players leave family behind. A little kickback could be required to keep family safe, the way family businesses paid “insurance” back in the early 20th century.

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      1. yes…..2 and 3 were what I was thinking all along…..and now with things diplomatically opening up with the US, the Cuban govt may now even put a clause in MLB contracts for a certain percentage to come their way.

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  44. Another team can join the Cole Hamels sweepstakes as Texas has learned that Yu Darvish will probably require TJ Surgery with a torn UCL tendon.

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      1. Cannot wait for LarryM’s response to your wishes in a Ranger return for Hamels…surplus value excluded. Though he may be hiking the snowy mountains somewhere so the response may have to wait a few days.

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        1. I have been very steady in my value. You get one top prospect whose value determines the rest of the package.

          Two or more top prospects is unreasonable thinking. One AA/AAA player and a couple of A level guys is more like it.

          Since our rotations are set we are likely to be looking for position guys which makes sense and the weakest positions are OF/2B/C.

          I say OF because you can never have too many OF’s in the pipeline.

          Gallo is a bit much because he plays 3B which is a surplus position.

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  45. The Texas Rangers can enter the Cole Hamels sweepstakes now. Yu Darvish has a torn UCL Tendon and will require TJ Surgery.

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  46. Velo for Biddle today sitting at 93-94 was exceptional, though he struggled a bit.
    Then later Jeanmar G. was very high velo…almost triple digits.
    Then realized, the new gun, tied to the new scoreboard at Bright House must be off reading high.
    So Biddle mist have been at 90-92.

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  47. [Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that the Phillies have expressed interest in Luis Severino and Aaron Judge from the Yankees]. Funny, I was looking the Yankees prospects earlier and saw Severino and Judge as a good start. Would love to get Ian Clarkin

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  48. Funny, I was looking the Yankees prospects earlier and saw Severino and Judge as a good start. Would love to get Ian Clarkin

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  49. Looks like the phillies are trying unload there bigger contact’s before spending . Next yrs FA pitching is looking vg . The Cuban player’s will keep coming every yr. The Yanks maybe the front runners now which maybe be nice .let the bidding war begin between the Sox , yanks, and LA.

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