Open Discussion: Week of December 22, 2014; Christmas Week

Weekly Discussion

Well, in the words of Andy Williams, ” It’s the most wonderful time of the year”.  So far this month, the Phillies have turned Jimmy Rollins and Antonio Bastardo into three young pitchers – Zack Eflin, Tom Windle, and Joely Rodriguez.  They have also added another pitcher and a young infielder through the Rule 5 Draft – Andy Oliver and Obudel Herrera.  What would you like the Phillies to find under their tree come Christmas morning?  A package of prospects for Cole Hamels?  A smaller package for Marlon Bird?  Jung-Ho Kang?  Discuss.

133 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of December 22, 2014; Christmas Week”

        1. Not sure if Revere adds anything from a Padres perspective. In addition to Upton / Kemp (and Myers of course), they have: Carlos Quentin, Seth Smith, Will Venable and Cameron Maybin. Those are not great players by any means, but I am not sure if Revere is that much of an upgrade over them.

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      2. Why isn’t anyone mentioning Austin Hedges? Are we assuming he’s off the table, or do you not like him as a prospect?

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        1. I guess Hedges could be one of the three.
          OTOH, …I hope they do their due diligence on Myers. There are concerns.

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      1. There have been a number of posts on this site suggesting that the # has to be $50Million that the Phils eat to move Howard. That is fine with me. I wish it had happened already. No need to get much back, either.

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  3. I think I would rather build a trade around Hunter Renfroe or Matthew Wisler as the centerpiece. I am not that enamored with Myers. The Rays fans I spoke to down here on Friday weren’t that high on him either.

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      1. Wow…that seems alarming about Myers…the low ISO, and the comp over his first 500 PAs. I would hope he would not be the next Jeff Francouer.

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      2. Say what you want about Arbuckle and GM Drayton Moore in KC….but two years ago they looked like fools letting Myers go for Shields….seems they may have been onto something about Wil Myers that baseball people in general may have overlooked.

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      4. Didnt read the article, but from what im remember, myers had a wrist injury last year. His numbers were good his rookie year

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  5. I would want a guy who has the potential to be an ace out of a Hamels deal. Having a starting outfielder (though let’s remember here that there are rookie of the year outfielders who have gone on to do nothing in the league, like Chris Coghlan) and a shortstop/2nd baseman who is a better, younger option than pretty much anything on the market right now would be great to go along with some solid prospects though. The Byrd deal definitely needs to happen. Ruiz I think will be dealt at the deadline, as well as hopefully Papelbon. I would have no problem whatsoever with an outfield of Revere, Wil Myers, and either Ruf or Brown for this season.

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    1. I don’t need a pitcher, but provided your comment was “I want a player who will develop into a perennial All-Star”, then I completely agree. Hamel’s is one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball on a 4 year contract. I strongly believe this should net a top 10/15 in all of baseball type of prospect. Doesn’t mean it will happen, but I definitely believe that’s what he’s worth.

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      1. Agreed. I just think Hamels is our only chance to acquire an ace pitcher via trade. We can get as many #2s, #3s, and #4s as we like but at the end of the day we need a true ace to have a real shot at a World Series. It’s also probably the single most valuable trading chip you can have.

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    1. Saw someone make a comment that the winning bid having the 215 area code in it could mean the phillies as well.

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  7. The link above is about Kang.Will Myers has hit everywhere he was at. At the age of 20 he hit the crap out of AA ball.he all had a good eye at the plate.San Diego are now saying that they are keeping him.unless thier’s a 3rd them Involved I don’t see it happening .

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  9. I just cant get over the statement . Phillies have to clear salary to pursue. a player. I might be wrong but they don’t have Kendrick’s, Adams, Burnett and Rollins, Bastardo that is if I am right 38 million. I don’t see much increase, brown, wont get a lot .revere maybe goes to 3 million. Why do they have to clear salary??

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    1. rocco…..either can I get over that statement about clearing money…. I already paid my money for next season and they cashed it….WTF! 🙂

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      1. True but they have $122 milion going to 10 players. I am sure they want to get payroll down a bit further.

        Losing one of their top 5 contracts would go a long way to getting payroll into a more manageable range given revenue projections.

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  10. I’d like two top 60 prospects for cole plus a lower level guy or two with upside. And I’d like this whole ordeal to be resolved soon. Plus sign a guy like morrow with upside that we could flip at the deadline. That is all.

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  11. One of the things I would like most as a Phillies fan is a healthy Cliff Lee in 2015, who gets off to an 8-1 start with an ERA under 2, and his typical K and BB numbers. Then the Phils will be in a position to trade him for a decent return I believe.

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    1. Yes that would be huge. Prove he’s healthy and still a legit #2 starter, then flip him at the trade deadline. I want to see Byrd and Howard traded before ST. The others can wait until the trade deadline. I want the Phillies to sign a major international 23+ guy, not necessarily Kang. The Phillies have cleared a ton of money. It’s time to put some of it to use.

      From SD I think we should want Hedges.

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      1. Why would we want Hedges- because he is ranked as the Padres #1 prospect? I don’t get the love for a defensive 1st catcher who can’t hit his way out of a paper bag.

        33% below league average in AA last year with an ISO under .100.

        Only slightly above average in A+ in 2013 with a 20 game disaster in AA added on (where his ISO was lower than Ben Revere’s).

        I know catchers develop more slowly but I don’t get it.

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        1. Because we are really short on catchers in the system and because the Phillies really value defensive catchers. Rupp hit not at all last year. Joseph has a lot of D to work on and likely not healthy enough to ever be a starting catcher. Grullon has the great arm, but less overall defense and less bat than Hedges. Knapp hasn’t caught a lot yet for Phillies and needs a ton of work on D. So it’s a major need. I’m not saying he should headline the deal, but he is a guy I want to include as one of major pieces in the trade.

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          1. I just can’t be excited about a Hamels deal that is headlined by a guy who can’t hit. I understand our system has a bunch of failed C prospects but I’d rather have a player with star potential upside rather than a guy who is elite defensively but can’t hit is way out of a paper bag.

            If it were Myers + Hedges than I would be very excited however I can’t see the Padres even considering a deal like that without major salary relief.

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          2. I’m going to disagree with the value of a no-hit all defense catcher. That type of player shouldn’t headline any Hamels trade. Not saying the Phillies don’t disproportionately value that type of player, but Ruiz as an example was a .330 Hitter with 15 HR’s during his peak in ADDITION to the excellent defense but the better metric is that he put up 21 WAR in 8 seasons where he averaged only 400 PA’s, that’s pretty amazing and if that isnt’ the type of profile we’re getting for a catcher, then I’m not interested in him as a headline.

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    2. The problem with Cliff Lee is that he is 36 and if he pitches 200 or more innings and does not end the year on the DL his 2016 salary is guaranteed.

      Age is a huge factor here and teams will not give up a lot for him, unfortunately.

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      1. I disagree. Cliff has been healthy his entire career until last year, and has a pitching motion that is very low impact. If he comes out and pitches like an ace and is healthy, his vesting option could add to his value not detract from it.

        Additionally, he’s not going to vest the option before the trade deadline. He might make 23 starts and let’s say 7 innings per start, he’d be at 161 hypothetically. If he got hurt with his new team after the deadline, he almost certainly would either end the season on the DL and/or not pitch 200 innings.

        Now him being healthy all year up to the trade deadline and pitching like an ace is a big what if but the question was what do we want as Phillies fans so let’s dream. If all this turns positive, I believe people will be thinking about his playoff experience and only a short term commitment as real valuable traits. The Phils won’t get a Hamels return for him but equal or better than a Rollins return.

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      2. I may be wrong, but I believed that it was 400 Innings over 2 years, and he can not vest his Option. The buy-out, however, is a large one.

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  13. I don’t believe there is any chance Howard is on the roster come Spring Training. One of the elements that is key about developing young players in the majors, is putting them in a culture and with veterans that can show them how things are done. I believe that’s why Utley will be retained – his work ethic and leadership will benefit guys like Asche, Franco, and others. The characteristics that Utley possesses are many of the traits Rollins and Howard lack – especially Howard whose pre-game preparation has always been non-existent.

    For guys like Ruiz, Hamels, and Byrd, I think they would all be good influences but if the return is sufficient for what each deserves, they shouldn’t hesitate to make the moves.

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  14. Myers is just another example of the problem with the overvaluation of the power tool when the contact rate isn’t there. It is why I am glad the Phillies didn’t throw $100 million away…I mean…at Tomas.

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  15. Scratch another one off the list — Pirates got Kang. Too bad. I thought he could have been a good, relatively low-risk signing at $5-6 million/year.

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    1. I don’t know how the posting system works, i.e. whether bids are in secret, but it could be that the Pirates $5+ million posting fee was just so much beyond the $2 million that was speculated that other teams just didn’t think to post that much.

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    2. Ruben is continually clearing money, even as we post.
      Maybe no kash for kang, but Rube may have a yen for a Japanese pitcher..

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      1. We keep hearing that the Phillies have a lot of interest in X player, that they’ve scouted him extensively, etc. (first Rusney, then Tomas, then Kang). At some point, they have to, you know, actually sign a guy. And I don’t count MAG and his situation. If they truly want to turn things around in a short period of time, they have to start signing talent when it’s available on the open market. Maybe they’ll surprise us and win the Moncada sweepstakes, but I won’t hold my breath. Maeda doesn’t excite based on what I’ve read about him to date.

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  17. Or, what is becoming evident, could be true. That is RAJ is a caretaker, under orders not to spend $, unless it is to dump players. They are in on nothing, not Castillo, not Tomas, not Kang. You can argue those players are not worth it, but who needs to take a risk, and has the $ to fail, more than the Phils? Medlen, Morrow, Floyd, all reasonable numbers, and Pitchers worth a risk, but nothing from the Phils. All of the cellar dwellers are active, not the Phils.Do not expect them to bid on Scherzer, but I do expect them to take a low cost risk on players. So when are they going to? Next year, when RAJ is booted upstairs and some other stooge gets his job.

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    2. I don’t suspect Hamels will struggle or get hurt, but he is one arm injury away from having minimum trade value and a potential liability of a contract. Even if his value would increase slightly between now and the deadline, I don’t think it’s worth the risk. Make the very best deal you can this winter, and move on.

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  19. Except for the other SPs that will be available like Price, Cliff Lee, Fister. I think now is the time that he is a better option than Shields and Scherzer.

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  20. I think you have to move now on Hamels. Teams have moved quality starters in surprise moves and Hamels has been on the trade block now since August.

    I am actually surprised that there are no discussions regarding Paps.

    I am sure that there have been discussions regarding Ruiz, Utley, and others yet they have not made the papers.

    Hopefully some additional work gets completed in January.

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  21. Clear that teams find Pap to be not worth the agg. His #s indicate that he is a good Closer still, and if Phils pay enough $, the contract becomes reasonable, but no one likes the guy. I can’t imagine what RAJ is demanding that Byrd has not already been traded.

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  22. Im not sure why the Pirates havent gotten in on Hamels. The Pirates have Josh Bell. Josh Bell is blocked. They have this idea that he is going to play first base… Im sure Josh Bell can handle first base and profile there. However Josh Bell can play a perfectly fine right field and profile there. Putting Josh Bell at first base sucks his value completely. Hamels contract is a contract that Pittsburgh can handle. The contracts that are going to be given out in the 16 off season, I highly doubt they could handle. The Pirates could build a package around Bell without giving up their big front of the rotation arms in Tailion and Glasnow. Bell, Hanson, Kingham for Cole Hamels and 10 million.

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    2. why would you want to move Cole and not get a team’s top prospect? If you can’t get that for him we need to keep him. A package of 3 not quite the best prospects sounds like cliff Lee and the mariners over again.

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      1. As much as people would like to think Cole Hamels is Felix Hernandez, he’s not. Josh Bell would certainly be most teams top prospect. Hamels is not bringing back a Glasnow or Tailon.

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            1. Look at all the numbers over the past 6 years and Hamels is in the top 5 in all of baseball in just about all meaningful category. He’s a top 3 LHP in baseball and prob top 7 in all of baseball. He’s a top pitcher, period . . . Numbers don’t lie and I challenge you to show me more then 5-7 pitchers who have put up better numbers (and if we take ballpark into consideration it makes him look even better).

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      2. So in your world if a team has the #1 and #2 rated prospects in all of baseball than you wouldn’t want to trade for the #2 guy because he wasn’t “a team’s top prospect.”

        You’d rather move him for a worse player simply because he is #1 in that organization?

        So basically you’d rather get a package headlined by Sean Newcomb (LAA #1 prospect) but likely nowhere near top 50) rather than Addison Russell (CHC #2 prospect, top 10 overall) simply because Russell isn’t ranked #1 in his own system?

        That makes no sense.

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      3. When Cliff Lee got dealt he got dealt for a flame out coming off horrible scouting reports in Phillipe Aumont. Most teams at that point knew he wasnt going to stick as a starter because of command and control issues. The Phillies were still enamored with his stuff (who wouldnt be, hes nasty. He just has no idea where its going.) Tyson Gillies was coming off a huge season. That season however was fueled by the California League. It was just bad scouting from the Phillies at that point. Amaro can be blamed for it because he trusted those reports. He tried to be Billy Beane and he failed miserably.

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      1. Probably reason why he posted the $10M with Hamels. Though I think it should $10M per year for the next 5 years, with the Pirates in their market. That would make Huntingdon think about it.

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    4. Josh Bell did not do well when he was up with the Orioles and is 27-28 years old; so a Hamels trade to Pittsburgh should not feature him as the centerpiece of the deal. Maybe as an accessory player in the trade.

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      1. Different Josh Bell. The Josh Bell you’re thinking of is on the D-Backs now. This Josh Bell was drafted by the Pirates in the 2nd round of the 2012 draft and is 21.

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    1. Slowey had a good career, early on, with the Twins. And still fairly young. Though he spent the whole year of 2012 on the disable list at the minor league level.

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  24. Not exactly the low risk/high reward type I was looking for. I wanted an Hernandez type that could play well and get traded at the deadline. This was low risk/no reward. The Phils have a boatload of them.

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  25. Meet your fifth starter this year, sean O” Sullivan. I saw him pitch about four times, I would rather watch paint dry then watch a game he is pitching.

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      1. There would be a lot less over reaction to Invitees, if they did anything positive to give any hope whatsoever. How about someone we can hope plays well enough to get traded in July? How about a risk player coming off injury that you can get lucky with. When all we get is this dreck, people are going to over react.

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        1. Gimme a break. These three aren’t even taking up roster spots. As I said below, guys need to take up roster spots in AAA.

          And these guys aren’t dreck. They fill up spots on rosters in the minors.

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      2. Riggs did you read that he is candidate to be fifth starter. I guess I over reacted to that too. I Wouldn’t put it pass amaro to fill in the starters with this type of pitcher,

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      1. This is neither constructive nor advances the conversation. There needs to be bodies at AAA. I really don’t understand why there are people who bash signings like this.

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  28. I’ve been a pessimist on a Hamels trade compared to most around here, so I guess take this with a grain of salt …

    While I can’t say I’m super excited about Hedges as the centerpiece to a Hamels deal, what the above comments seem to miss is that it’s far from certain that he’ll be a zero as a hitter. Age/level and performance at other stops is relevant here. I think the floor is a good defense/no hit catcher, and that could still be a decent regular. Now, if that was the ceiling, I would agree that it wasn’t enough – but it’s not. A good defense/decent hitting catcher – which is certainly possible – would be a fine return (keeping in mind that there will be other pieces as well). Heck, I could see him as Ruiz revisited, with lesser contact skills but better defense.

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      1. Wouldn’t be too sure. I can see Hedges with 10-15 HR power as he gets older.

        The following comparison is, I will admit, somewhat unfair, given that Ruiz was an extreme late developer, but (1) in Ruiz’ age 21 year (same as Hedges in 2014) he was in rookie ball, 4 levels lower than Hedges at the same age; and (2) the first time he ever hit 10 HR in a year at ANY level was when he 25 years old. Hedges did it as a 19 year old.

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        1. Larry, I’m familiar with why you think the Hamels return will be subpar (teams disproportionately value prospects), but do you actually feel like it’s an even trade? Like let’s be honest here for a moment.

          Hamels career WAR is currently at 40.4 (baseball reference), on a very attractive 4 (+1 option) year contract, he’ll likely average about 5 WAR per year (6, 5, 5, 4) for a total of 20 additional WAR. Per Fangraphs, there are approximately 16 players a year that produce a WAR in excess of 6, which Hamel’s did last year and has a very good chance of doing again for at least the next 2 years. Of the 944 players in 2010 (that’s the year I’m using), he would be among the top handful of players at any position in the game. While his contract isn’t GREAT, it’s certainly “good” both in terms of value and length given the players current age. Assume for a moment that in a trade, both trading partners receive equal value. My current supposition isn’t that you’re wrong to think the return for him is limited, but rather that from an appropriate value perspective, there should be a significant return for this type of player.

          So, my question again, why shouldn’t (not why won’t it happen, but why shouldn’t it happen) Hamel’s be worth one of the top prospects (unproven) in the game in conjunction with 1 other top 100 player and a throw in or two?

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          1. Just to add one additional point, when I say top prospects, I don’t mean a Bryce Harper type, of a Pujols as minor leaguers, I mean a typical top 5 or top 10 prospect. i.e. a Dom Brown type (that hopefully doesn’t flame out).

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            1. Hedges is probably a top 25 in baseball prospect. So we’re not really far off from this. Of course if the “experts” are wrong about him, then obviously it’s not a good deal. But if they’re right, that’s not bad.

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          2. I’m not sure about Hedges in particular, and of course the other pieces matter. But here’s why the trade would AT LEAST be a little closer to fair than you think:

            (1) I think you’re underestimating the risk factor with Hamels; my expectation of WAR over the next 4 years is lower than 20;
            (2) You may be (not clear from your comment) underestimating the upside, and/or overstating the risks on the prospects;
            (3) You’re (apparently) not factoring in years of control.

            Now, all of that still doesn’t get you to an even trade. Which leads to:

            (3) Contracts. Let’s assume that the Hamels contract is a fair deal,* or maybe slightly better than that (his AAV is no bargain; his contract length is attractive (low) compared to other star FA pitchers). Now, I don’t buy into the valuation theory that a player on a fair contract has zero trade value. BUT in comparing him to a pre-free agent player who will have a substantially below market contract … you HAVE to factor that in. Have to. A guy being paid 25 million dollar a year and worth 4 WAR per year, versus a guys being paid peanuts and worth 2 WAR per year – that’s (roughly) a fair trade in my view. Obviously that’s not true for all teams in all circumstances – which is why these deals happen – but it is ABSURD to expect a 4 WAR per year young guy being paid almost nothing in exchange for a 4 WAR per year veteran being paid 25 million per year. Why would a team ever do that?

            Now,if you think Hedge’s upside is a 2 WAR player, with downside risk, then I agree that it isn’t a good deal for the Phillies. But my point is that that is probably closer to his floor than his ceiling.

            Short version: Hamel’s contract, while not bad, is a negative in terms of his trade value since he’ll be traded for players who, if they pan out, while have a much better contractual situation.

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            1. Have you factored in the possibility of the Phillies sending a portion/percentage of the monies remaining on Hamel’s contract?

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            2. Considering your take on Hedges, what else would you need to make the deal from the Phils standpoint? Wisler or Renfroe? something else? Asking what would not be a windfall for the Phils, but good to very good.

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        2. To be clear, I’m saying Hedges is Ruiz, but with lesser contact skills, better defense, and more power. Aren’t we agreeing with each other?

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    2. Larry how many good defensive catcher do you think there are? every organization in baseball has one. We have one right now. at triple a. How in gods name can you, say you take a good defensive catcher to headline a hamels trade, And he might hit ,for hamels. I just don’t get it. you can find no hit defensive catcher every year in college, How anyone with any sense agrees that hamels is worth that little, to me is amazing. 17 percentage of these so called top propsects every become productive players. and you want to trade a top pitcher, and I will debate how good hamels is with anyone. Hamel type pitcher especially lefthanders come along every so often, and at his age he still is great, omg how much we underestimate this guy. and are willing just for the sake of trading to give him away. for a no hit catching prospect, and one person thumbed up your comment, please could that person. tell us his reason. I need to know, cause this to me is the worst trade suggestion, I ever heard on this site.

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      1. rocco…otoh, how many catchers have come into the league as defensive catchers and then became better hitters after a few years?
        I can think of three off the top of my head…Ruiz, Posada and Molina, and there are more.
        Not all come in like a Bench, Munson, Fisk and Posey.

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        1. So romus how many never hit? so you comfortable trading a number one starter for a catcher who might hit? sorry makes no sense to me. I think this would be the worst move they could make, Just never understand how little people think hamel is worth.

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          1. Your point is taken rocco.
            And there are risks in most decisions.
            Most three- for -one superstar trades seem to disappoint the teams receiving the prospects.
            Everyone tries to mitigate the risks, but sometimes you just have to roll the dice

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    2. This whole thing is really weird and reminiscent of the A’s situation towards the end.

      It seriously sounds like a mystery/thriller type of novel. You have to wonder what the hell is going on here.

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      1. I don’t think he means run the team exactly like the Yankees. I think he means to not run the team like a small market team while being in one of the biggest markets in sports.

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  31. J roll is my hero. I love that he said. I believe he would have been more blunt, and said that as long as the two moron owners have there say, that is Giles and mont, we will be bad. Middleton would be the next owner to say screw you commissioner I want to win and would pay for Latin talent and not let draft guys walk over small amounts. but we are stuck with Montgomery and until we see him and Giles go. we will be bad.

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    1. Not to cast aspersions….but you do realize if JRoll was not traded he would not have been so blunt about the ownership, and may have just kept it to himself.

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  32. Romus you realize if he said what he really felt, while he was here. they would have killed him in papers. The owners would have most likely done what they have done to previous. players who seen through them and realize how bad they really are. rolen, schilling, bowa. and there are more. Its there attitude in all parts of ownership, yes they spent at big league level, but there drafts, ignorance in other markets. that kills me. and now how they have backed Middleton in corner, and he cant do what should be done to this large market team.

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    1. No.
      Actually he would be respected….if he had said those things two years ago during the downslide.
      But it would have been a tricky situation since he recently signed a very decent contract extension then, so it would have been difficult for him.
      Nevertheless, he has voiced now, what many of the core I am sure think and feel.

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      1. No he would have been killed by the bandwagon fans and the media who were all drinking the Kool Aid that the Phillies were one of the top teams in baseball despite a shoddy rotation, a shoddy bullpen, and a really pathetic lineup.

        The media changed when the Phillies won the World Series and especially when they went back to it in 2009. They started acting like the media in the other “winning” cities.

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    2. I will never forget when Bowa lashed out against the management in the early 80’s regarding the team letting Luzinski and Boone go……..Giles was so worked up it led to one of the worst trades in Phillies history. Bowa and a throw in named Sandberg for Ivan DeJesus. Maybe Giles can work a trade out for the stellar Ivan DeJesus Jr.

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  33. Yep when your not doing anything no signings 1 major trase you have billions coming in from Comcast . No rotation no ss they give Brown leeway which I can’t understand. They have A nice young bullpen and 2 young 3rd baseman.they need to trade Byrd and sign a few sp. Telling your 1st baseman we don’t want you here.Maybe my greatest fear is pushing the good prospects that Çwe do have to put something on the field for the fans. Good GM don’t do this to their teams they see this coming and take care of it before it gets like this.
    They saved 38 mil from J Roll, Bastardo etc . Sign some mid range sp and of they sided Noone .Middleton can’t do no worse were a big market city like Boston, mets, yanks . What’s the plan RAJ sit around hell We can do that

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  34. Looks like the Phils are about to sign Wandy Rodriguez. Eight straight seasons of sub-4 ball before last season’s mess. Details aren’t release yet, and I’m not sure if I would change my view upon learning of a guaranteed deal, but as of now I like the signing. If he could get back to ‘norm’ next year, he could easily be moved at next year’s deadline for what presumably would be a very, very low price.

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    1. It is a nice little signing, like you say, in that if he makes the club out of ST…and pitches well for just 3 months, he could be another R Hernandez at the trade deadline. But these last two years have been difficult on his health.

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    2. I like this signing a lot.

      Let’s remember that with Roberto Hernandez though that as Fausto Carmona he was at one point considered a major up and coming pitcher with Cleveland.

      Still, I liked Wandy Rodriguez as an Astro for sure. Nice minor signing.

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  35. Ken Rosenthal reporting that the Phillies and Reds have a deal involving Marlon Byrd. RHP Ben Lively one of players headed to PHI. Announcement coming today.

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    1. Like I mentioned the other day…Lively may not be a top of the rotation ace guy….but he can turn out to be a good #3 Matt Garza type pitcher.
      Good size with decent velo on his FB. Good swing and miss with his pitches also since he mixes all of them up.
      Will be a god trade .See him starting at reading.

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